Search results for: Wishart probability distribution

Authors: Masomeh Jamshid Nejad

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Nowadays, statistical literacy is no longer a necessary skill but an essential skill with broad applications across diverse fields, especially in operational decision areas such as business management, finance, and economics. As such, learning and deep understanding of statistical concepts are essential in the context of business studies. One of the crucial topics in statistical theory and its application is the normal distribution, often called a bell-shaped curve. To interpret data and conduct hypothesis tests, comprehending the properties of normal distribution (the mean and standard deviation) is essential for business students. This requires undergraduate students in the field of economics and business management to visualize and work with data following a normal distribution. Since technology is interconnected with education these days, it is important to teach statistics topics in the context of Python, R-studio, and Microsoft Excel to undergraduate students. This research endeavours to shed light on the effect of Excel-based instruction on learners’ knowledge of statistics, specifically the central concept of normal distribution. As such, two groups of undergraduate students (from the Business Management program) were compared in this research study. One group underwent Excel-based instruction and another group relied only on traditional teaching methods. We analyzed experiential data and BBA participants’ responses to statistic-related questions focusing on the normal distribution, including its key attributes, such as the mean and standard deviation. The results of our study indicate that exposing students to Excel-based learning supports learners in comprehending statistical concepts more effectively compared with the other group of learners (teaching with the traditional method). In addition, students in the context of Excel-based instruction showed ability in picturing and interpreting data concentrated on normal distribution.

Keywords: statistics, excel-based instruction, data visualization, pedagogy

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Authors: Al Omari Moahmmed Ahmed

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These papers describe the Bayesian Estimator using Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Lindley’s approximation and the maximum likelihood estimation of the Weibull distribution with Type-I censored data. The maximum likelihood method can’t estimate the shape parameter in closed forms, although it can be solved by numerical methods. Moreover, the Bayesian estimates of the parameters, the survival and hazard functions cannot be solved analytically. Hence Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and Lindley’s approximation are used, where the full conditional distribution for the parameters of Weibull distribution are obtained via Gibbs sampling and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm (HM) followed by estimate the survival and hazard functions. The methods are compared to Maximum Likelihood counterparts and the comparisons are made with respect to the Mean Square Error (MSE) and absolute bias to determine the better method in scale and shape parameters, the survival and hazard functions.

Keywords: weibull distribution, bayesian method, markov chain mote carlo, survival and hazard functions

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Authors: Serge B. Provost, Yishan Zhang

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A moment-based adjustment to the saddlepoint approximation is introduced in the context of density estimation. First applied to univariate distributions, this methodology is extended to the bivariate case. It then entails estimating the density function associated with each marginal distribution by means of the saddlepoint approximation and applying a bivariate adjustment to the product of the resulting density estimates. The connection to the distribution of empirical copulas will be pointed out. As well, a novel approach is proposed for estimating the support of distribution. As these results solely rely on sample moments and empirical cumulant-generating functions, they are particularly well suited for modeling massive data sets. Several illustrative applications will be presented.

Keywords: empirical cumulant-generating function, endpoints identification, saddlepoint approximation, sample moments, density estimation

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Authors: E. Zafeiraki, P. Nisianakis, K. Machera

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Cannabis plant contains 113 cannabinoids and it is commonly known for its psychoactive substance tetrahydrocannabinol or as a source of narcotic substances. The recent years’ cannabis cultivation also increases due to its wide use both for medical and industrial purposes as well as for uses as para-pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and food commodities. Depending on the final product, different parts of the plant are utilized, with the leaves and bud (seeds) being the most frequently used. Cannabis can accumulate various contaminants, including heavy metals, both from the soil and the water in which the plant grows. More specifically, metals may occur naturally in the soil and water, or they can enter into the environment through fertilizers, pesticides and fungicides that are commonly applied to crops. The high probability of metals accumulation in cannabis, combined with the latter growing use, raise concerns about the potential health effects in humans and consequently lead to the need for the implementation of safety measures for cannabis products, such as guidelines for regulating contaminants, including metals, and especially the ones characterized by high toxicity in cannabis. Acknowledging the above, the aim of the current study was first to investigate metals contamination in cannabis samples collected from Greece, and secondly to examine potential differences in metals accumulation among the different parts of the plant. To our best knowledge, this is the first study presenting information on elements in cannabis cultivated in Greece, and also on the distribution pattern of the former in the plant body. To this end, the leaves and the seeds of all the samples were initially separated and dried and then digested with Nitric acid (HNO₃) and Hydrochloric acid (HCl). For the analysis of these samples, an Inductive Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) method was developed, able to quantify 28 elements. Internal standards were added at a constant rate and concentration to all calibration standards and unknown samples, while two certified reference materials were analyzed in every batch to ensure the accuracy of the measurements. The repeatability of the method and the background contamination were controlled by the analysis of quality control (QC) standards and blank samples in every sequence, respectively. According to the results, essential metals, such as Ca, Zn and Mg, were detected at high levels. On the contrary, the concentration of high toxicity metals, like As (average: 0.10ppm), Pb (average: 0.36ppm), Cd (average: 0.04ppm), and Hg (average: 0.012ppm) were very low in all the samples, indicating that no harmful effects on human health can be caused by the analyzed samples. Moreover, it appears that the pattern of contamination of metals is very similar in all the analyzed samples, which could be attributed to the same origin of the analyzed cannabis, i.e., the common soil composition, use of fertilizers, pesticides, etc. Finally, as far as the distribution pattern between the different parts of the plant is concerned, it was revealed that leaves present a higher concentration in comparison to seeds for all metals examined.

Keywords: cannabis, heavy metals, ICP-MS, leaves and seeds, elements

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Authors: Pengcheng Quan, Shan Zhong

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Double ramp geometry is widely used in supersonic and hypersonic environments as it presents unique flow patterns for shock wave-boundary layer interaction studies as well as for two-dimensional inlets and deflected control surfaces for re-entry vehicles. Hence, the surface pressure distribution is critical for optimum design. Though when the model is wide enough on spanwise direction the flow can be regarded as a two-dimensional flow, in actual applications a finite width would normally cause some three-dimensional spillage effects. No research has been found addressed this problem, hence the primary interest of this study is to set up a liable surface pressure distribution on a double ramp with three-dimensional effects. Both numerical and experimental (pressure sensitive paints) are applied to obtain the pressure distribution; the results agree well except that the numerical computation doesn’t capture the Gortler vortices. The pressure variations on the spanwise planes are used to analyse the development of the Gortler vortices and the effects of three-dimensional spillage on the vortices. Results indicate that the three-dimensionl spillage effects not only enhance the developing of the Gortler vortice, but also increase the periodic distance between vortice pairs.

Keywords: spillage effects, pressure sensitive paints, hypersonic, double ramp

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Authors: Mohamed Barbary, Mohamed H. Abd El-Azeem

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Maneuvering extended object tracking (M-EOT) using high-resolution inverse synthetic aperture radar (ISAR) observations has been gaining momentum recently. This work presents a new robust implementation of the multiple models (MM) multi-Bernoulli (MB) filter for M-EOT, where the M-EOT’s ISAR observations are characterized using a skewed (SK) non-symmetrically normal distribution. To cope with the possible abrupt change of kinematic state, extension, and observation distribution over an extended object when a target maneuvers, a multiple model technique is represented based on MB-track-before-detect (TBD) filter supported by SK-sub-random matrix model (RMM) or sub-ellipses framework. Simulation results demonstrate this remarkable impact.

Keywords: maneuvering extended objects, ISAR, skewed normal distribution, sub-RMM, MM-MB-TBD filter

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Authors: Alexander E. Hramov, Vadim V. Grubov, Alexey A. Koronovskii, Maria K. Kurovskaуa, Anastasija E. Runnova

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The perception of visual signals in the brain was among the first issues discussed in terms of multistability which has been introduced to provide mechanisms for information processing in biological neural systems. In this work the influence of the cognitive noise on the visual perception of multistable pictures has been investigated. The study includes an experiment with the bistable Necker cube illusion and the theoretical background explaining the obtained experimental results. In our experiments Necker cubes with different wireframe contrast were demonstrated repeatedly to different people and the probability of the choice of one of the cubes projection was calculated for each picture. The Necker cube was placed at the middle of a computer screen as black lines on a white background. The contrast of the three middle lines centered in the left middle corner was used as one of the control parameter. Between two successive demonstrations of Necker cubes another picture was shown to distract attention and to make a perception of next Necker cube more independent from the previous one. Eleven subjects, male and female, of the ages 20 through 45 were studied. The choice of the Necker cube projection was detected with the Electroencephalograph-recorder Encephalan-EEGR-19/26, Medicom MTD. To treat the experimental results we carried out theoretical consideration using the simplest double-well potential model with the presence of noise that led to the Fokker-Planck equation for the probability density of the stochastic process. At the first time an analytical solution for the probability of the selection of one of the Necker cube projection for different values of wireframe contrast have been obtained. Furthermore, having used the results of the experimental measurements with the help of the method of least squares we have calculated the value of the parameter corresponding to the cognitive noise of the person being studied. The range of cognitive noise parameter values for studied subjects turned to be [0.08; 0.55]. It should be noted, that experimental results have a good reproducibility, the same person being studied repeatedly another day produces very similar data with very close levels of cognitive noise. We found an excellent agreement between analytically deduced probability and the results obtained in the experiment. A good qualitative agreement between theoretical and experimental results indicates that even such a simple model allows simulating brain cognitive dynamics and estimating important cognitive characteristic of the brain, such as brain noise.

Keywords: bistability, brain, noise, perception, stochastic processes

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Authors: Abir Yahya, Hacen Dhahri, Khalifa Slimi

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The present paper deals with a numerical simulation of temperature field inside a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) components. The temperature distribution is investigated using a co-flow planar SOFC comprising the air and fuel channel and two-ceramic electrodes, anode and cathode, separated by a dense ceramic electrolyte. The Lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) is used for the numerical simulation of the physical problem. The effects of inlet temperature, anode thermal conductivity and current density on temperature distribution are discussed. It was found that temperature distribution is very sensitive to the inlet temperature and the current density.

Keywords: heat sources, Lattice Boltzmann method, solid oxide fuel cell, temperature

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Authors: Lian Kösters, Wendy Smits, Raymond Montizaan

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The number of solo self-employed in the Netherlands has been increasing for years. The relative increase is among the largest in the EU. To explain this increase, most studies have focused on the supply side, workers who offer themselves as solo self-employed. The number of studies that focus on the demand side, the employer who hires the solo self-employed, is still scarce. Studies into employer behaviour conducted until now show that employers mainly choose self-employed workers when they have a temporary need for specialist knowledge, but also during projects or production peaks. These studies do not provide insight into the employers’ considerations for different contract types. In this study, interviews with employers were conducted, and available literature was consulted to provide an overview of the several factors employers use to compare different contract types. That input was used to set up a vignette study. This was carried out at the end of 2021 among almost 1000 business owners, HR managers, and business leaders of Dutch companies. Each respondent was given two sets of five fictitious candidates for two possible positions in their organization. They were asked to rank these candidates. The positions varied with regard to the type of tasks (core tasks or support tasks) and the time it took to train new people for the position. The respondents were asked additional questions about the positions, such as the required level of education, the duration, and the degree of predictability of tasks. The fictitious candidates varied, among other things, in the type of contract on which they would come to work for the organization. The results were analyzed using a rank-ordered logit analysis. This vignette setup makes it possible to see which factors are most important for employers when choosing to hire a solo self-employed person compared to other contracts. The results show that there are no indications that employers would want to hire solo self-employed workers en masse. They prefer regular employee contracts. The probability of being chosen with a solo self-employed contract over someone who comes to work as a temporary employee is 32 percent. This probability is even lower than for on-call and temporary agency workers. For a permanent contract, this probability is 46 percent. The results provide indications that employers consider knowledge and skills more important than the solo self-employed contract and that this can compensate. A solo self-employed candidate with 10 years of work experience has a 63 percent probability of being found attractive by an employer compared to a temporary employee without work experience. This suggests that employers are willing to give someone a less attractive contract for the employer if the worker so wishes. The results also show that the probability that a solo self-employed person is preferred over a candidate with a temporary employee contract is somewhat higher in business economics, administrative and technical professions. No significant results were found for factors where it was expected that solo self-employed workers are preferred more often, such as for unpredictable or temporary work.

Keywords: employer behaviour, rank-ordered logit analysis, solo self-employment, temporary contract, vignette study

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Authors: K. Thiagarajan, K. Saranya, A. Veeraiah, B. Sudha

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This paper presents a novel algorithm for secure, reliable and flexible transmission of big data in two hop wireless networks using cooperative jamming scheme. Two hop wireless networks consist of source, relay and destination nodes. Big data has to transmit from source to relay and from relay to destination by deploying security in physical layer. Cooperative jamming scheme determines transmission of big data in more secure manner by protecting it from eavesdroppers and malicious nodes of unknown location. The novel algorithm that ensures secure and energy balance transmission of big data, includes selection of data transmitting region, segmenting the selected region, determining probability ratio for each node (capture node, non-capture and eavesdropper node) in every segment, evaluating the probability using binary based evaluation. If it is secure transmission resume with the two- hop transmission of big data, otherwise prevent the attackers by cooperative jamming scheme and transmit the data in two-hop transmission.

Keywords: big data, two-hop transmission, physical layer wireless security, cooperative jamming, energy balance

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Authors: Y. Yılmaz, C. Ünal, A. Dursun

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Distribution channels play significant role for hotels. Direct and indirect selling options of hotel rooms have been increased especially with the help of new technologies, i.e. hotel’s own web sites and online booking sites. Although these options emerged as tools for diversifying the distribution channels, vast number of hotels -mostly resort hotels- is still heavily dependent upon international tour operators when selling their products. On the other hand, hotel sector is so vulnerable against crises. Economic, political or any other crisis can affect hotels very badly and so it is critical to have the right balance of distribution channel to avoid the adverse impacts of a crisis. In this study, it is aimed to search the impacts of a general crisis on the selling prices of hotels which have different weights of distribution channels. The study was done in Turkey where various crises occurred in 2015 and 2016 which had great negative impacts on Turkish tourism and led enormous occupancy rate and selling price reductions. 112 upscale resort hotel in Antalya, which is the most popular tourism destination of Turkey, joined to the research. According to the results, hotels with high dependency to international tour operators are more forced to reduce their room prices in crisis time compared to the ones which use their own web sites more. It was also found that the decline in room prices is limited for hotels which are working with national tour operators and travel agencies in crisis time.

Keywords: marketing channels, crisis, hotel, international tour operators, online travel agencies

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Authors: Pradeep Kumar, Abhishek Kumar Chandra, Ashok Khanna

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Extraction of Strontium by crown ether (DCH18C6) hasbeen investigated in [BMIM][TF2N] Ionic Liquid (IL) giving higher extraction ~98% and distribution ratio as compared to other organic solvents (Dodecane, Hexane, & Isodecyl alcohol + Dodecane). Distribution ratio of Sr in IL at 0.15M DCH18C6 indicates an enhancement of 20000, 2000, 500 times over Dodecane, Hexane and 5% Isodecyl Alcohol + 95 % Dodecane at 0.01M aqueous acidity respectively. In presence of IL, Sr extraction decreases with increase in HNO3 concentration in aqueous phase whereas opposite trend was observed with organic solvents.Extraction of Sr initially increases with increase in DCH18C6 concentration in IL, finally reaching an asymptotic constant.

Keywords: distribution ratio, ionic liquid, ligand, organic solvent, stripping

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Authors: Abel L. Masotla, Phesheya E. Dlamini, Vusumuzi E. Mbanjwa

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Accurate quantification of the vertical distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) in relation to land cover transformations, associated with shrub encroachment is crucial because deeper lying horizons have been shown to have greater capacity to sequester SOC. Despite this, in-depth soil carbon dynamics remain poorly understood, especially in arid and semi-arid rangelands. The objective of this study was to quantify and compare the vertical distribution of soil organic carbon stocks (SOCs) in shrub-encroached and open grassland sites. To achieve this, soil samples were collected vertically at 10 cm depth intervals under both sites. The results showed that SOC was on average 19% and 13% greater in the topsoil and subsoil respectively, under shrub-encroached grassland compared to open grassland. In both topsoil and subsoil, lower SOCs were found under shrub-encroached (4.53 kg m⁻² and 3.90 kgm⁻²) relative to open grassland (4.39 kgm⁻² and 3.67 kgm⁻²). These results demonstrate that deeper soil horizon play a critical role in the storage of SOC in savanna grassland.

Keywords: savanna grasslands, shrub-encroachment, soil organic carbon, vertical distribution

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Authors: M. Guemmadi, A. Ouibrahim

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This numerical investigation aims to evaluate how a viscoelastic lubricant described by a generalized Maxwell model, affects the pressure distribution, the load capacity and thermal effect in a journal bearing lubrication. We use for the purpose the CFD package software completed by adapted user define functions (UDFs) to solve the coupled equations of momentum, of energy and of the viscoelastic model (generalized Maxwell model). Two parameters, viscosity and relaxation time are involved to show how viscoelasticity substantially affect the pressure distribution, the load capacity and the thermal transfer by comparison to Newtonian lubricant. These results were also compared with the available published results.

Keywords: journal bearing, lubrication, Maxwell model, viscoelastic fluids, computational modelling, load capacity

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Authors: Pranee Tridhoskul

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This research paper is aimed to examine a relationship between the service marketing mix and customers’ frequency of use of service at Mercedes Benz Auto Repair Centres under Thonburi Group, Thailand. Based on 2,267 customers who used the service of Thonburi Group’s Auto Repair Centres as the population, the sampling of this research was a total of 340 samples, by use of Probability Sampling Technique. Systematic Random Sampling was applied by use of questionnaire in collecting the data at Thonburi Group’s Auto Repair Centres. Mean and Pearson’s basic statistical correlations were utilized in analyzing the data. The study discovered a medium level of customers’ perception towards product and service of Thonburi Group’s Auto Repair Centres, price, place or distribution channel and promotion. People who provided service were perceived also at a medium level, whereas the physical evidence and service process were perceived at a high level. Furthermore, there appeared a correlation between the physical evidence and service process, and customers’ frequency of use of automobile service per year.

Keywords: service marketing mix, behavior, Mercedes Auto Service Centre, frequency of use

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Authors: A. Preetha Priyadharshini, S. B. M. Priya

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In this paper, we consider the MU-MISO downlink scenario, under imperfect channel state information (CSI). The main issue in imperfect CSI is to keep the probability of each user achievable outage rate below the given threshold level. Such a rate outage constraints present significant and analytical challenges. There are many probabilistic methods are used to minimize the transmit optimization problem under imperfect CSI. Here, decomposition based large deviation inequality and Bernstein type inequality convex restriction methods are used to perform the optimization problem under imperfect CSI. These methods are used for achieving improved output quality and lower complexity. They provide a safe tractable approximation of the original rate outage constraints. Based on these method implementations, performance has been evaluated in the terms of feasible rate and average transmission power. The simulation results are shown that all the two methods offer significantly improved outage quality and lower computational complexity.

Keywords: imperfect channel state information, outage probability, multiuser- multi input single output, channel state information

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Authors: Mina Jafari, Kobra Hamraee, Saied Hossein Hosseini

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The prediction of breast cancer disease is one of the challenges in medicine. In this paper we collected 528 records of women’s information who live in Kabul including demographic, life style, diet and pregnancy data. There are many classification algorithm in breast cancer prediction and tried to find the best model with most accurate result and lowest error rate. We evaluated some other common supervised algorithms in data mining to find the best model in prediction of breast cancer disease among afghan women living in Kabul regarding to momography result as target variable. For evaluating these algorithms we used Cross Validation which is an assured method for measuring the performance of models. After comparing error rate and accuracy of three models: Decision Tree, Naive Bays and Rule Induction, Decision Tree with accuracy of 94.06% and error rate of %15 is found the best model to predicting breast cancer disease based on the health care records.

Keywords: decision tree, breast cancer, probability, data mining

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Authors: Ehab AbdulRazzaq Hussein

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Quantum cryptography (QC) is an emerging technology for secure key distribution with single-photon transmissions. In contrast to classical cryptographic schemes, the security of QC schemes is guaranteed by the fundamental laws of nature. Their security stems from the impossibility to distinguish non-orthogonal quantum states with certainty. A potential eavesdropper introduces errors in the transmissions, which can later be discovered by the legitimate participants of the communication. In this paper, the modeling approach is proposed for QC protocol BB84 using polarization coding. The single-photon system is assumed to be used in the designed models. Thus, Eve cannot use beam-splitting strategy to eavesdrop on the quantum channel transmission. The only eavesdropping strategy possible to Eve is the intercept/resend strategy. After quantum transmission of the QC protocol, the quantum bit error rate (QBER) is estimated and compared with a threshold value. If it is above this value the procedure must be stopped and performed later again.

Keywords: security, key distribution, cryptography, quantum protocols, Quantum Cryptography (QC), Quantum Key Distribution (QKD).

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Authors: Aichun Feng, Zhi-Min Chen, Jing Tang Xing

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A two-dimensional linear wave-body interaction problem can be solved using a desingularized integral method by placing free surface Rankine sources over calm water surface and satisfying boundary conditions at prescribed collocation points on the calm water surface. A new free-surface Rankine source distribution scheme, determined by the intersection points of free surface and body surface, is developed to reduce numerical computation cost. Associated with this, a new treatment is given to the intersection point. The present scheme results are in good agreement with traditional numerical results and measurements.

Keywords: source point distribution, panel method, Rankine source, desingularized algorithm

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Authors: Mohamed Zellagui, Heba Ahmed Hassan

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This paper proposes a new approach for the calculation of short-circuit parameters in the presence of Pulse Width Modulated based Series Compensator (PWMSC). PWMSC is a newly Flexible Alternating Current Transmission System (FACTS) device that can modulate the impedance of a transmission line through applying a variation to the duty cycle (D) of a train of pulses with fixed frequency. This results in an improvement of the system performance as it provides virtual compensation of distribution line impedance by injecting controllable apparent reactance in series with the distribution line. This controllable reactance can operate in both capacitive and inductive modes and this makes PWMSC highly effective in controlling the power flow and increasing system stability in the system. The purpose of this work is to study the impact of fault resistance (RF) which varies between 0 to 30 Ω on the fault current calculations in case of a ground fault and a fixed fault location. The case study is for a medium voltage (MV) Algerian distribution line which is compensated by PWMSC in the 30 kV Algerian distribution power network. The analysis is based on symmetrical components method which involves the calculations of symmetrical components of currents and voltages, without and with PWMSC in both cases of maximum and minimum duty cycle value for capacitive and inductive modes. The paper presents simulation results which are verified by the theoretical analysis.

Keywords: pulse width modulated series compensator (pwmsc), duty cycle, distribution line, short-circuit calculations, ground fault, symmetrical components method

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Authors: M. Habibi

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The angular distribution of ion beam emission from the APF plasma focus device (15kV, 40μf, 115nH) filled with nitrogen gas has been examined through investigating the effect of ion beams on aluminum thin foils in different angular positions. The samples are studied in different distances from the anode end with different shots. The optimum pressure that would be obtained at the applied voltages of 12kV was 0.7 torr. The ions flux declined as the pressure inclined and the maximum ion density at 0.7 torr was about 10.26 × 1022 ions/steradian. The irradiated foils were analyzed with SEM method in order to study their surface and morphological changes. The results of the analysis showed melting and surface evaporation effects and generation of some cracks in the specimens. The result of ion patterns on the samples obtained in this study can be useful in determining ion spatial distributions on the top of anode.

Keywords: plasma focus, spatial distribution, high energy ions, ion angular distribution

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Authors: Sopheak Sorn, Kwok Yip Szeto

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Reliability is one of the important measures of how well the system meets its design objective, and mathematically is the probability that a complex system will perform satisfactorily. When the system is described by a network of N components (nodes) and their L connection (links), the reliability of the system becomes a network design problem that is an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem. In this paper, we address the network design problem for a random point set’s pattern in two dimensions. We make use of a Voronoi construction with each cell containing exactly one point in the point pattern and compute the reliability of the Voronoi’s dual, i.e. the Delaunay graph. We further investigate the communicability of the Delaunay network. We find that there is a positive correlation and a negative correlation between the homogeneity of a Delaunay's degree distribution with its reliability and its communicability respectively. Based on the correlations, we alter the communicability and the reliability by performing random edge flips, which preserve the number of links and nodes in the network but can increase the communicability in a Delaunay network at the cost of its reliability. This transformation is later used to optimize a Delaunay network with the optimum geometric mean between communicability and reliability. We also discuss the importance of the edge flips in the evolution of real soap froth in two dimensions.

Keywords: Communicability, Delaunay triangulation, Edge Flip, Reliability, Two dimensional network, Voronio

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Authors: Sergey Podluzhnyy

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One of the most important tasks of investment and pension fund management is building decision support system which helps to make right decision on corporate bond portfolio formation. Today there are several basic methods of bond portfolio management. They are duration management, immunization and convexity management. Identified methods have serious disadvantage: they do not take into account credit risk or insolvency risk of issuer. So, identified methods can be applied only for management and evaluation of high-quality sovereign bonds. Applying article proposes mathematical model for building an optimal in case of risk and yield corporate bond portfolio. Proposed model takes into account the default probability in formula of assessment of bonds which results to more correct evaluation of bonds prices. Moreover, applied model provides tools for visualization of the efficient frontier of corporate bonds portfolio taking into account the exposure to credit risk, which will increase the quality of the investment decisions of portfolio managers.

Keywords: corporate bond portfolio, default probability, effective boundary, portfolio optimization task

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Authors: Masoud Sheidaei, Fahimeh Koohdar

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Date palms are economically important tree plants with high nutrition and medicinal values. More than 400 date palm cultivars are cultivated in many regions of Iran, but no report is available on landscape genetics and species distribution modeling of these trees from the country. Therefore, the present study provides a detailed insight into the genetic diversity and structure of date palm populations in Iran and investigates the effects of geographical and climatic variables on the structuring of genetic diversity in them. We used different computational methods in the study like, spatial principal components analysis (sPCA), redundancy analysis (RDA), latent factor mixed model (LFMM), and Maxent and Dismo models of species distribution modeling. We used a combination of different molecular markers for this study. The results showed that both global and local spatial features play an important role in the genetic structuring of date palms, and the genetic regions associated with local adaptation and climatic variables were identified. The effects of climatic change on the distribution of these taxa and the genetic regions adaptive to these changes will be discussed.

Keywords: adaptive genetic regions, genetic diversity, isolation by distance, populations divergence

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Authors: Yongjian Du, Jinhua Sun, Kim M. Liew, Huahua Xiao

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Optimal allocation of emergency resources before a disaster is of great importance for emergency response. In reality, the pre-protection for a single critical node where accidents may occur is common. In this study, a model is developed to determine location and inventory decisions of multiple emergency resources among a set of candidate stations to minimize the total cost based on the constraints of budgetary and capacity. The total cost includes the economic accident loss which is accorded with probability distribution of time and the warehousing cost of resources which is increasing over time. A ratio is set to measure the degree of a storage station only serving the target node that becomes larger with the decrease of the distance between them. For the application of linear program, it is assumed that the length of travel time to the accident scene of emergency resources has a linear relationship with the economic accident loss. A computational experiment is conducted to illustrate how the proposed model works, and the results indicate its effectiveness and practicability.

Keywords: emergency response, integer linear program, multiple emergency resources, pre-allocation decisions, single potential accident node

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Authors: Yuanhao Gao, Pin Lin, Kees Weijer

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In this paper, we will determine the external body force distribution with analysis of stokes fluid motion using mathematical modelling and numerical approaching. The body force distribution is regarded as the unknown variable and could be determined by the idea of optimal control theory. The Stokes flow motion and its velocity are generated by given forces in a unit square domain. A regularized objective functional is built to match the numerical result of flow velocity with the generated velocity data. So that the force distribution could be determined by minimizing the value of objective functional, which is also the difference between the numerical and experimental velocity. Then after utilizing the Lagrange multiplier method, some partial differential equations are formulated consisting the optimal control system to solve. Finite element method and conjugate gradient method are used to discretize equations and deduce the iterative expression of target body force to compute the velocity numerically and body force distribution. Programming environment FreeFEM++ supports the implementation of this model.

Keywords: optimal control model, Stokes equation, finite element method, conjugate gradient method

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Authors: A. D. Abdellatif, A. N. Ahmed, M. E. Abdelaziz

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The main purpose of this paper is to design a double acceptance sampling plan under the time truncated life test when the product lifetime follows an exponentiated transmuted Weibull distribution. Here, the motive is to meet both the consumer’s risk and producer’s risk simultaneously at the specified quality levels, while the termination time is specified. A comparison between the results of the double and single acceptance sampling plans is conducted. We demonstrate the applicability of our results to real data sets.

Keywords: double sampling plan, single sampling plan, producer’s risk, consumer’s risk, exponentiated transmuted weibull distribution, time truncated experiment, single, double, Marshal-Olkin

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Authors: Collins Chiemeke, Stephen Ibe, Godwin Onyedim

Abstract:

This research work on high-resolution seismic tomography method was carried out with the aim of investigating how near-surface geology influences the initial distribution of infrastructural development in an area like Otuoke and its environs. To achieve this objective, seismic tomography method was employed. The result revealed that the overburden (highly-weathered layer) thickness ranges from 27 m to 50 m within the survey area, with an average value of 37 m. The 3D surface analysis for the overburden thickness distribution within the survey area showed that the thickness of the overburden is more in regions with less infrastructural development, and least in built-up areas. The range of velocity distribution from the surface to within a depth of 5 m is about 660 m/s to 1160 m/s, with an average value of 946 m/s. The 3D surface analysis of the velocity distribution also revealed that the areas with large infrastructural development are characterized with large velocity values compared with the undeveloped regions that has average low-velocity values. Hence, one can conclusively say that the initial settlement of Otuoke and its environs and the subsequent infrastructural development was influenced by the underlying near surface geology (rigid earth), among other factors.

Keywords: geology, seismic, infrastructural, near-surface

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Authors: Shruti Chopra, Vikas Rao Vadi

Abstract:

In the era of the digital world, the Internet of Things (IoT) has been receiving significant attention. Its ubiquitous connectivity between humans, machines to machines (M2M) and machines to humans provides it a potential to transform the society and establish an ecosystem to serve new dimensions to the economy of the country. Thereby, this study has attempted to identify the challenges that seem prevalent in IoT adoption in India through the literature survey. Further, the data has been collected by taking the opinions of experts to conduct the foresight analysis and it has been analyzed with the help of scenario planning process – Micmac, Mactor, Multipol, and Smic-Prob. As a methodology, the study has identified the relationship between variables through variable analysis using Micmac and actor analysis using Mactor, this paper has attempted to generate the entire field of possibilities in terms of hypotheses and construct various scenarios through Multipol. And lastly, the findings of the study include final scenarios that are selected using Smic-Prob by assigning the probability to all the scenarios (including the conditional probability). This study may help the practitioners and policymakers to remove the obstacles to successfully implement the IoT in India.

Keywords: Internet of Thing (IoT), foresight analysis, scenario planning, challenges, policymaking

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Authors: Khatia Tavidashvili, Nino Jamrishvili, Valerian Omsarashvili

Abstract:

Studies of the vertical distribution of the air temperature in the atmosphere have great value for the solution of different problems of meteorology and climatology (meteorological forecast of showers, thunderstorms, and hail, weather modification, estimation of climate change, etc.). From the end of May 2015 in Kakheti after 25-year interruption, the work of anti-hail service was restored. Therefore, in connection with climate change, the need for the detailed study of the contemporary regime of the vertical distribution of the air temperature above this territory arose. In particular, the indicated information is necessary for the optimum selection of rocket means with the works on the weather modification (fight with the hail, the regulation of atmospheric precipitations, etc.). Construction of the detailed maps of the potential damage distribution of agricultural crops from the hail, etc. taking into account the dimensions of hailstones in the clouds according to the data of radar measurements and height of locality are the most important factors. For now, in Georgia, there is no aerological probing of atmosphere. To solve given problem we processed information about air temperature profiles above Telavi, at 27 km above earth's surface. Information was gathered during four observation time (4, 10, 16, 22 hours with local time. After research, we found vertical distribution of the average monthly values of the air temperature above Kakheti in ‎2012-2017 from January to December. Research was conducted from 0.543 to 27 km above sea level during four periods of research. In particular, it is obtained: -during January the monthly average air temperature linearly diminishes with 2.6 °C on the earth's surface to -57.1 °C at the height of 10 km, then little it changes up to the height of 26 km; the gradient of the air temperature in the layer of the atmosphere from 0.543 to 8 km - 6.3 °C/km; height of zero isotherm - is 1.33 km. -during July the air temperature linearly diminishes with 23.5 °C to -64.7 °C at the height of 17 km, then it grows to -47.5 °C at the height of 27 km; the gradient of the air temperature of - 6.1 °C/km; height of zero isotherm - is 4.39 km, which on 0.16 km is higher than in the sixties of past century.

Keywords: hail, Kakheti, meteorology, vertical distribution of the air temperature

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