Search results for: USD/IDR volatility statistical analysis

Authors: Hanna Teklu Gebregziabher

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Background: A variety of techniques for medical termination of second-trimester pregnancy can be used, but there is no consensus about which is the best. Even though most evidence suggests the combined use of intracervical Foley catheter and vaginal misoprostol is safe, effective, and acceptable method for termination of second-trimester pregnancy, which is comparable to mifepristone-misoprostol combination regimen with lower cost and no additional maternal risks. The use of mifepristone and misoprostol alone with no other procedure is still the most common procedure in different institutions for 2nd-trimester pregnancy. Methods: A cross-sectional comparative prospective study design is employed on women who were admitted for 2nd-trimester medical abortion and medical abortion failed or if there was no change in cervical status after 24 hours of 1st dose of misoprostol. The study was conducted at St. Paulose Hospital Millennium Medical College. A sample of 44 participants in each arm was necessary to give a two-tailed test, a type 1 error of 5%, 80% statistical power, and a 1:1 ratio among groups. Thus, a total of 94 cases, 47 from each arm, were recruited. Data was entered and cleaned by using Epi-info and analyzed using SPSS version 29.0 statistical software and was presented in descriptive and tabular forms. Different variables were cross-tabulated and compared for significant differences and statistical analysis using the chi-square test and independent t-test, to conclude. Result: There was a significant difference between the two groups on induction to expulsion time and number of doses used. The mean ± SD of induction to expulsion time for those used misoprostol alone was 48.09 ± 11.86 and those who used trans-cervical catheter sequentially with misoprostol were 36.7 ±6.772. Conclusion: The use of a trans-cervical Foley catheter in conjunction with misoprostol in a sequential manner is a more effective, safe, and easily accessible procedure. In addition, the cost of utilizing the catheter is less compared to the cost of misoprostol and is readily available. As a good substitute, we advised using Trans-cervical Catether even for medical abortions performed in the second trimester.

Keywords: second trimester, medical abortion, catheter, misoprostol

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Authors: Mohammad Mahdi Mozaffari, Mehdi Ajalli, Delaram Jafargholi

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The main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of the system of ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) and SCM (Supply Chain Management) on the competitive advantage and performance of Mamot Company. The methods for collecting information in this study are library studies and field research. A questionnaire was used to collect the data needed to determine the relationship between the variables of the research. This questionnaire contains 38 questions. The direction of the current research is applied. The statistical population of this study consists of managers and experts who are familiar with the SCM system and ERP. Number of statistical society is 210. The sampling method is simple in this research. The sample size is 136 people. Also, among the distributed questionnaires, Reliability of the Cronbach's Alpha Cronbach's Questionnaire is evaluated and its value is more than 70%. Therefore, it confirms reliability. And formal validity has been used to determine the validity of the questionnaire, and the validity of the questionnaire is confirmed by the fact that the score of the impact is greater than 1.5. In the present study, one variable analysis was used for central indicators, dispersion and deviation from symmetry, and a general picture of the society was obtained. Also, two variables were analyzed to test the hypotheses; measure the correlation coefficient between variables using structural equations, SPSS software was used. Finally, multivariate analysis was used with statistical techniques related to the SPLS structural equations to determine the effects of independent variables on the dependent variables of the research to determine the structural relationships between the variables. The results of the test of research hypotheses indicate that: 1. Supply chain management practices have a positive impact on the competitive advantage of the Mammoth industrial complex. 2. Supply chain management practices have a positive impact on the performance of the Mammoth industrial complex. 3. Planning system Organizational resources have a positive impact on the performance of the Mammoth industrial complex. 4. The system of enterprise resource planning has a positive impact on Mamot's competitive advantage. 5.The competitive advantage has a positive impact on the performance of the Mammoth industrial complex 6.The system of enterprise resource planning Mamot Industrial Complex Supply Chain Management has a positive impact. The above results indicate that the system of enterprise resource planning and supply chain management has an impact on the competitive advantage and corporate performance of Mamot Company.

Keywords: enterprise resource planning, supply chain management, competitive advantage, Mamot company performance

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Authors: Soumaya Ben Kheilifa, Dorra Mezzez Hmaied

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We propose two approaches to examine whether European hedge fund managers can time market liquidity. Using a sample of 1616 European hedge funds, we find evidence of liquidity timing. More importantly, this ability adds economic value to investors. Thus, it represents valuable managerial skill and a major source of European hedge funds’ performance. Also we show that the majority of these funds demonstrate liquidity timing ability especially during liquidity crisis. Finally, it emerged that our main evidence of liquidity timing remains significant after controlling for market timing and volatility timing.

Keywords: european hedge funds, liquidity timing ability, market liquidity, crisis

Procedia PDF Downloads 372

Authors: Vinicius R. Domingues, Luan C. S. M. Ozelim

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The statistical study has become indispensable for various fields of knowledge. Not any different, in Geotechnics the study of probabilistic and statistical methods has gained power considering its use in characterizing the uncertainties inherent in soil properties. One of the situations where engineers are constantly faced is the definition of a probability distribution that represents significantly the sampled data. To be able to discard bad distributions, goodness-of-fit tests are necessary. In this paper, three non-parametric goodness-of-fit tests are applied to a data set computationally generated to test the goodness-of-fit of them to a series of known distributions. It is shown that the use of normal distribution does not always provide satisfactory results regarding physical and behavioral representation of the modeled parameters.

Keywords: Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson-Darling test, Cramer-Von-Mises test, nonparametric adherence tests

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Authors: U. Waqas, M. F. Ahmed, A. Mehmood, M. A. Rashid

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In geophysical exploration surveys, the quality of acquired data holds significant importance before executing the data processing and interpretation phases. In this study, 2D seismic reflection survey data of Fort Abbas area, Cholistan Desert, Pakistan was taken as test case in order to assess its quality on statistical bases by using normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), Cronbach’s alpha test (α) and null hypothesis tests (t-test and F-test). The analysis challenged the quality of the acquired data and highlighted the significant errors in the acquired database. It is proven that the study area is plain, tectonically least affected and rich in oil and gas reserves. However, subsurface 3D modeling and contouring by using acquired database revealed high degrees of structural complexities and intense folding. The NRMSE had highest percentage of residuals between the estimated and predicted cases. The outcomes of hypothesis testing also proved the biasness and erraticness of the acquired database. Low estimated value of alpha (α) in Cronbach’s alpha test confirmed poor reliability of acquired database. A very low quality of acquired database needs excessive static correction or in some cases, reacquisition of data is also suggested which is most of the time not feasible on economic grounds. The outcomes of this study could be used to assess the quality of large databases and to further utilize as a guideline to establish database quality assessment models to make much more informed decisions in hydrocarbon exploration field.

Keywords: Data quality, Null hypothesis, Seismic lines, Seismic reflection survey

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Authors: Santanu Chattopadhyay, Gautam Sarkar, Arabinda Das

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This paper presents wavelet based classification of various heart diseases. Electrocardiogram signals of different heart patients have been studied. Statistical natures of electrocardiogram signals for different heart diseases have been compared with the statistical nature of electrocardiograms for normal persons. Under this study four different heart diseases have been considered as follows: Myocardial Ischemia (MI), Congestive Heart Failure (CHF), Arrhythmia and Sleep Apnea. Statistical nature of electrocardiograms for each case has been considered in terms of kurtosis values of two types of wavelet coefficients: approximate and detail. Nine wavelet decomposition levels have been considered in each case. Kurtosis corresponding to both approximate and detail coefficients has been considered for decomposition level one to decomposition level nine. Based on significant difference, few decomposition levels have been chosen and then used for classification.

Keywords: arrhythmia, congestive heart failure, discrete wavelet transform, electrocardiogram, myocardial ischemia, sleep apnea

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Authors: Badreddine Chemali, Boualem Tiliouine

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This article presents the main results of a numerical investigation on the uncertainty of dynamic response of structures with statistically correlated random damping Gamma distributed. A computational method based on a Linear Statistical Model (LSM) is implemented to predict second order statistics for the response of a typical industrial building structure. The significance of random damping with correlated parameters and its implications on the sensitivity of structural peak response in the neighborhood of a resonant frequency are discussed in light of considerable ranges of damping uncertainties and correlation coefficients. The results are compared to those generated using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The numerical results obtained show the importance of damping uncertainty and statistical correlation of damping coefficients when obtaining accurate probabilistic estimates of dynamic response of structures. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the LSM model to efficiently predict uncertainty propagation for structural dynamic problems with correlated damping parameters is demonstrated.

Keywords: correlated random damping, linear statistical model, Monte Carlo simulation, uncertainty of dynamic response

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Authors: Abiola O. Temitayo-Oboh, Olugbenga L. Abodunrin, Wasiu O. Adebimpe, Micheal C. Asuzu

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Introduction: Many women who are sexually active would prefer to avoid becoming pregnant but are not using any method of contraception. These women are considered to have an unmet need for contraception. In an ideal situation, all women who want to space or limit their births and are exposed to the risk of conception would use some kind of conception; in practice, however, some women fail to use contraception which put them at risk of having mistimed or unwanted births, induced abortion, or maternal death. This study, therefore, aimed to assess the determinants of unmet need for contraception among currently married women in rural and urban communities of Osun State, South-West Nigeria. Methods: This was an analytical cross-sectional comparative study, which was carried out among currently married women. Three hundred and twenty respondents each were selected for the rural and urban groups from four Local Government Areas using multi-stage sampling technique. Data were collected using a pre-tested semi-structured interviewer-administered questionnaire and focus group discussion (FGD) guide; data analysis was done with Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 17.0 and detailed content analysis method respectively. Statistical analysis of the difference between proportions was done by the use of the Chi-square test and T-test was used to compare the means of the continuous variables. The study also utilized descriptive, bivariate and multivariate analytical techniques to examine the effect of some variables on unmet need. Level of statistical significance was set at p-value < 0.05 for all values. Results: Two hundred and ninety-six (92.5%) of the rural and 306 (95.6%) of the urban study population had heard of contraception, 365 (57.0 %) of the total respondents had good knowledge [162 (50.6 %) for rural respondents and 203 (63.4 %) for urban respondents]. This difference was statistically significant (p < 0.001). Five hundred and twenty-one (81.4%) respondents had a positive attitude towards contraception [243 (75.9%) in the rural and 278 (86.9%) in the urban area], and the difference was also statistically significant (p < 0.001). Only 47 (14.7%) and 59 (18.4%) of rural and urban women were current contraceptive users respectively. The total unmet need for contraception among rural women was 138 (43.1%) of which 82 (25.6%) was for spacing and 56 (17.5%), for limiting. While the total unmet need for contraception among urban women was 145 (45.3%) of which 96 (30.0%) was for spacing and 49 (15.3%) for limiting. Number of living children, knowledge of contraceptive methods, discussion with health workers about family planning, couples discussion about family planning and availability of family planning services were found to be predictors of women’s unmet need for contraception (p < 0.05). Conclusion: It is, therefore, recommended that there is need to intensify reproductive health education in bridging the knowledge gap, improving attitude and modifying practices regarding use of contraception in Nigeria. Hence, this will help to enhance the utilization of family planning services among Nigerian women.

Keywords: contraception, married women, Nigeria, rural, urban, unmet need

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Authors: Armana Huq, Wahidur Rahman, Sanwar Kader

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Inland waterways in Bangladesh play an important role in providing comfortable and low-cost transportation. However, a maritime accident takes away many lives and creates unwanted hazards every year. This article deals with a comprehensive review of inland waterway accidents in Bangladesh. Additionally, it includes a comparative study between international and local inland research studies based on maritime accidents. Articles from inland waterway areas are analyzed in-depth to make a comprehensive overview of the nature of the academic work, accident and risk management process and different statistical analyses. It is found that empirical analysis based on the available statistical data dominates the research domain. For this study, major maritime accident-related works in the last four decades in Bangladesh (1981-2020) are being analyzed for preparing a bibliometric analysis. A study of maritime accidents of passenger's vessels during (1995-2005) indicates that the predominant causes of accidents in the inland waterways of Bangladesh are collision and adverse weather (77%), out of which collision due to human error alone stands (56%) of all accidents. Another study refers that the major causes of waterway accidents are the collision (60.3%) during 2005-2015. About 92% of this collision occurs due to direct contact with another vessel during this period. Rest 8% of the collision occurs by contact with permanent obstruction on waterway roots. The overall analysis of another study from the last 25 years (1995-2019) shows that one of the main types of accidents is collisions, with about 50.3% of accidents being caused by collisions. The other accident types are cyclone or storm (17%), overload (11.3%), physical failure (10.3%), excessive waves (5.1%), and others (6%). Very few notable works are available in testing or comparing the methods, proposing new methods for risk management, modeling, uncertainty treatment. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the evolution of marine accident-related research domain regarding inland waterway of Bangladesh and attempts to introduce new ideas and methods to abridge the gap between international and national inland maritime-related work domain which can be a catalyst for a safer and sustainable water transportation system in Bangladesh. Another fundamental objective of this paper is to navigate various national maritime authorities and international organizations to implement risk management processes for shipping accident prevention in waterway areas.

Keywords: inland waterways, safety, bibliometric analysis, risk management, accidents

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Authors: Felix Oromena Egara, Moeketsi Mosia

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The study aimed to evaluate the impact of blended learning on mathematics retention among secondary school students. Conducted in the Isoko North Local Government Area of Delta State, Nigeria, the research involved 1,235 senior class one (SS 1) students. Employing a non-equivalent control group pre-test-post-test quasi-experimental design, a sample of 70 students was selected from two secondary schools with ICT facilities through purposive sampling. Random allocation of students into experimental and control groups was achieved through balloting within each selected school. The investigation included three assessment points: pre-Mathematics Achievement Test (MAT), post-MAT, and post-post-MAT (retention), administered systematically by the researchers. Data collection utilized the established MAT instrument, which demonstrated a high reliability score of 0.86. Statistical analysis was conducted using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 28, with mean and standard deviation addressing study questions and analysis of covariance scrutinizing hypotheses at a significance level of .05. Results revealed significantly greater improvements in mathematics retention scores among students exposed to blended learning compared to those instructed through conventional methods. Moreover, noticeable differences in mean retention scores were observed, with male students in the blended learning group exhibiting notably higher performance. Based on these findings, recommendations were made, advocating for mathematics educators to integrate blended learning, particularly in geometry teaching, to enhance students’ retention of mathematical concepts.

Keywords: blended learning, flipped classroom model, secondary school students, station rotation model

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Authors: Pieter van den Berg, Retief Broodryk, Bert Moolman

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Firstly, this study aimed to identify which performance indicators (PIs) discriminate between winning and losing university-level Rugby Union (RU) teams and, secondly, to compare the significant PIs in RU and Rugby Union Sevens (RS) at university level. Understanding the importance of PIs and their effect on match outcomes could assist coaching staff to prioritise specific game aspects during training to increase performance. Twenty randomly selected round-robin matches of the 2018 Varsity Cup (n=20), and Varsity Sports sevens (n=20) tournaments were analysed. A linear mixed model was used to determine statistical significant differences set at p≤0.05 while effect size was reported according to Cohen's d value. Results revealed that various PIs discriminated between winning and losing RU teams and that specific PIs could be observed as significant in both RU and RS. Therefore, specific identified tactical aspects of RU and RS should be prioritised to optimise performance

Keywords: match success, notational analysis, performance analysis, rugby, video analysis

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Authors: Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes

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Regression analysis is a statistical method that is able to describe and predict causal relationships between individuals. Not all relationships have a known curve shape; often, there are relationship patterns that cannot be known in the shape of the curve; besides that, a cause can have an impact on more than one effect, so that between effects can also have a close relationship in it. Regression analysis that can be done to find out the relationship can be brought closer to the semiparametric regression of truncated spline biresponse. The purpose of this study is to examine the function estimator and determine the best model of truncated spline biresponse semiparametric regression. The results of the secondary data study showed that the best model with the highest order of quadratic and a maximum of two knots with a Goodness of fit value in the form of Adjusted R2 of 88.5%.

Keywords: biresponse, farmer attachment, farmer loyalty, truncated spline

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Authors: Charity Ifunanya Osakwe, Victoria Ogochuchukwu Obi-Nwosu, Chima Kenneth Anachedo

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The study investigates how automated teller machines (ATM) and mobile banking affect deposit money banks in the Nigerian economy. The study made use of time series data which were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin from 2009 to 2021. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data on automated teller machine and mobile phones were used to proxy electronic banking while total deposit in banks proxied the performance of deposit money banks. The analysis for the study was done using ordinary least square econometric technique with the aid of economic view statistical package. The results show that the automated teller machine has a positive and significant effect on the total deposits of deposit money banks in Nigeria and that making use of deposits of deposit money banks in Nigeria. It was concluded in the study that e-banking has equally increased banking access to customers and also created room for banks to expand their operations to more customers. The study recommends that banks in Nigeria should prioritize the expansion and maintenance of ATM networks as well as continue to invest in and develop more mobile banking services.

Keywords: electronic, banking, automated teller machines, mobile, deposit

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Authors: Suzan Duygu Bedir Erişti

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The present study tried to make a general evaluation of the dissertations conducted in the last decade in the field of art education in the Department of Fine Arts Education in the Institutes of Education Sciences in Turkey. In the study, most of the universities which involved an Institute of Education Sciences within their bodies in Turkey were reached. As a result, a total of a hundred dissertations conducted in the departments of Fine Arts Education at several universities (Anadolu, Gazi, Ankara, Marmara, Dokuz Eylul, Ondokuz Mayıs, Selcuk and Necmettin Erbakan) were determined via the open access systems of universities as well as via the Thesis Search System of Higher Education Council. Most of the dissertations were reached via the latter system, and in cases of failure, the dissertations were reached via the former system. Consequently, most of the dissertations which did not have any access restriction and which had appropriate content were reached. The dissertations reached were examined based on document analysis in terms of their research topics, research paradigms, contents, purposes, methodologies, data collection tools, and analysis techniques. The dissertations conducted in institutes of Education Sciences could be said to have demonstrated a development, especially in recent years with respect to their qualities. It was also found that a great majority of the dissertations were carried out at Gazi University and Marmara University and that a similar number of dissertations were conducted in other universities. When all the dissertations were taken into account, in general, they were found to differ a lot in their subject areas. In most of the dissertations, the quantitative paradigm was adopted, while especially in recent years, more importance has been given to methods based on the qualitative paradigm. In addition, most of the dissertations conducted with quantitative paradigm were structured based on the general survey model and experimental research model. In terms of statistical techniques, university-focused approaches were used. In some universities, advanced statistical techniques were applied, while in some other universities, there was a moderate use of statistical techniques. Most of the studies produced results generalizable to the levels of postgraduate education and elementary school education. The studies were generally structured in face-to-face teaching processes, while some of them were designed in environments which did not include results generalizable to the face-to-face education system. In the present study, it was seen that the dissertations conducted in the departments of Fine Arts Education at the Institutes of Education Sciences in Turkey did not involve application-based approaches which included art-based or visual research in terms of either research topic or methodology.

Keywords: fine arts education, dissertations, evaluation of dissertations, research trends in fine arts education

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Authors: Chokri Slim

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The objective of this research is attempting to respond to this question: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and statistical learning models in predicting credit risk management? A Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model was compared with neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and a Support vector regression (SVR). The population of this study includes 50 listed Banks in Tunis Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2000 to 2016. Firstly, we show the factors that have significant effect on the quality of loan portfolios of banks in Tunisia. Secondly, it attempts to establish that the systematic use of objective techniques and methods designed to apprehend and assess risk when considering applications for granting credit, has a positive effect on the quality of loan portfolios of banks and their future collectability. Finally, we will try to show that the bank governance has an impact on the choice of methods and techniques for analyzing and measuring the risks inherent in the banking business, including the risk of non-repayment. The results of empirical tests confirm our claims.

Keywords: credit risk management, multiple linear regression, principal components analysis, artificial neural networks, support vector machines

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Authors: Viloria Marin Hermes, Paredes Santiago Maritza, Viloria Paredes Jonathan

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The aim of this study is to assess the prevalence of Burnout syndrome in a sample of 600 professors at the University of Guayaquil (Ecuador) using the Maslach Burnout Inventory (M.B.I.). In addition, assessment was made of the effects on health from professional burnout using the General Health Questionnaire (G.H.Q.-28), and the influence of Emotional Intelligence on prevention of its symptoms using the Spanish version of the Trait Meta-Mood Scale (T.M.M.S.-24). After confirmation of the underlying factor structure, the three measurement tools showed high levels of internal consistency, and specific cut-off points were proposed for the group of Latin American academics in the M.B.I. Statistical analysis showed the syndrome is present extensively, particularly on medium levels, with notably low scores given for Professional Self-Esteem. The application of Canonical Correspondence Analysis revealed that low levels of self-esteem are related to depression, with a lack of personal resources related to anxiety and insomnia, whereas the ability to perceive and control emotions and feelings improves perceptions of professional effectiveness and performance.

Keywords: burnout, academics, emotional intelligence, general health, canonical correspondence analysis

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Authors: Edlira Donefski, Lorenc Ekonomi, Tina Donefski

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Edgeworth approximation is one of the most important statistical methods that has a considered contribution in the reduction of the sum of standard deviation of the independent variables’ coefficients in a Quantile Regression Model. This model estimates the conditional median or other quantiles. In this paper, we have applied approximating statistical methods in an economical problem. We have created and generated a quantile regression model to see how the profit gained is connected with the realized sales of the cosmetic products in a real data, taken from a local business. The Linear Regression of the generated profit and the realized sales was not free of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity, so this is the reason that we have used this model instead of Linear Regression. Our aim is to analyze in more details the relation between the variables taken into study: the profit and the finalized sales and how to minimize the standard errors of the independent variable involved in this study, the level of realized sales. The statistical methods that we have applied in our work are Edgeworth Approximation for Independent and Identical distributed (IID) cases, Bootstrap version of the Model and the Edgeworth approximation for Bootstrap Quantile Regression Model. The graphics and the results that we have presented here identify the best approximating model of our study.

Keywords: bootstrap, edgeworth approximation, IID, quantile

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Authors: Mohamed Idris S. Abozaed, Suliman Mohamed Elrajoubi

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Researches and concerns in power quality gained significant momentum in the field of power electronics systems over the last two decades globally. This sudden increase in the number of concerns over power quality problems is a result of the huge increase in the use of non-linear loads. In this paper, power quality evaluation of some distribution networks at Misurata - Libya has been done using a power quality and energy analyzer (Fluke 437 Series II). The results of this evaluation are used to minimize the problems of power quality. The analysis shows the main power quality problems that exist and the level of awareness of power quality issues with the aim of generating a start point which can be used as guidelines for researchers and end users in the field of power systems.

Keywords: power quality disturbances, power quality evaluation, statistical analysis, electrical distribution networks

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Authors: Behrooz Khalilloo, Hamid Shahriari, Emad Roghanian

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Process capability indices (PCIs) are important concepts of statistical quality control and measure the capability of processes and how much processes are meeting certain specifications. An important issue in statistical quality control is parameter estimation. Under the assumption of multivariate normality, the distribution parameters, mean vector and variance-covariance matrix must be estimated, when they are unknown. Classic estimation methods like method of moment estimation (MME) or maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) makes good estimation of the population parameters when data are not contaminated. But when outliers exist in the data, MME and MLE make weak estimators of the population parameters. So we need some estimators which have good estimation in the presence of outliers. In this work robust M-estimators for estimating these parameters are used and based on robust parameter estimators, robust process capability indices are introduced. The performances of these robust estimators in the presence of outliers and their effects on process capability indices are evaluated by real and simulated multivariate data. The results indicate that the proposed robust capability indices perform much better than the existing process capability indices.

Keywords: multivariate process capability indices, robust M-estimator, outlier, multivariate quality control, statistical quality control

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Authors: Dila Ram Bhandari

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Throughout the 20th century, new governments were created where identities such as ethnic, religious, linguistic, caste, communal, tribal, and others played a part in the development of constitutions and the legal system of victim and criminal justice. Acute issues with extremism, poverty, environmental degradation, cybercrimes, human rights violations, crime against, and victimization of both individuals and groups have recently plagued South Asian nations. Everyday massive number of crimes are steadfast, these frequent crimes have made the lives of common citizens restless. Crimes are one of the major threats to society and also for civilization. Crime is a bone of contention that can create a societal disturbance. The old-style crime solving practices are unable to live up to the requirement of existing crime situations. Crime analysis is one of the most important activities of the majority of intelligent and law enforcement organizations all over the world. The South Asia region lacks such a regional coordination mechanism, unlike central Asia of Asia Pacific regions, to facilitate criminal intelligence sharing and operational coordination related to organized crime, including illicit drug trafficking and money laundering. There have been numerous conversations in recent years about using data mining technology to combat crime and terrorism. The Data Detective program from Sentient as a software company, uses data mining techniques to support the police (Sentient, 2017). The goals of this internship are to test out several predictive model solutions and choose the most effective and promising one. First, extensive literature reviews on data mining, crime analysis, and crime data mining were conducted. Sentient offered a 7-year archive of crime statistics that were daily aggregated to produce a univariate dataset. Moreover, a daily incidence type aggregation was performed to produce a multivariate dataset. Each solution's forecast period lasted seven days. Statistical models and neural network models were the two main groups into which the experiments were split. For the crime data, neural networks fared better than statistical models. This study gives a general review of the applied statistics and neural network models. A detailed image of each model's performance on the available data and generalizability is provided by a comparative analysis of all the models on a comparable dataset. Obviously, the studies demonstrated that, in comparison to other models, Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) produced greater prediction. The crime records of 2005-2019 which was collected from Nepal Police headquarter and analysed by R programming. In conclusion, gated recurrent unit implementation could give benefit to police in predicting crime. Hence, time series analysis using GRU could be a prospective additional feature in Data Detective.

Keywords: time series analysis, forecasting, ARIMA, machine learning

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Authors: O. Behar, A. Khellaf, K. Mohammedi, S. Ait Kaci

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Up to now, most validation studies have been based on the MBE and RMSE, and therefore, focused only on long and short terms performance to test and classify solar radiation models. This traditional analysis does not take into account the quality of modeling and linearity. In our analysis we have tested 22 solar radiation models that are capable to provide instantaneous direct and global radiation at any given location Worldwide. We introduce a new indicator, which we named Global Accuracy Indicator (GAI) to examine the linear relationship between the measured and predicted values and the quality of modeling in addition to long and short terms performance. Note that the quality of model has been represented by the T-Statistical test, the model linearity has been given by the correlation coefficient and the long and short term performance have been respectively known by the MBE and RMSE. An important founding of this research is that the use GAI allows avoiding default validation when using traditional methodology that might results in erroneous prediction of solar power conversion systems performances.

Keywords: solar radiation model, parametric model, performance analysis, Global Accuracy Indicator (GAI)

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Authors: Ersin Karakaya, Halit Tutar

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Reliable foods must be consumed in terms of healthy nutrition. The production and dissemination of diatom products in Turkey is rapidly evolving on the basis of preserving ecological balance, ensuring sustainability in agriculture and offering quality, reliable products to consumers. In this study, year in Turkey as (2002- 2015) to determine values of such as cultivated land of organic vegetable production, production levels, production quantity, number of products, number of farmers. It is intended to make the econometric analysis of the factors affecting the production of organic vegetable production (Number of products, Number of farmers and cultivated land). The main material of the study has created secondary data in relation to the 2002-2015 period as organic vegetable production in Turkey and regression analysis of the factors affecting the value of production of organic vegetable is determined by the Least Squares Method with EViews statistical software package.

Keywords: number of farmers, cultivated land, Eviews, Turkey

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Authors: Hassan Hamidi, Fereshteh Zarei

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In this study, we compared amount of compete motivation between young and adult volleyball players. Compete motivation has three sections: success achieves score, defeat avoiding score and ability score. For measuring motivation, we used sports attitude inventory of Willis and Layne. The statistical population was elite's men volleyball players in range of young and adult and the study subjects were randomly selected from participant teams in volleyball professional league. In total, 65 adult and 75 young were selected. For collecting the required information, the research inventories were distributed in practice's locations and then were collected after being completed by players. For analyzing the data, we used descriptive statistics including mean, standard deviation and frequency tables. We also used conceptual statistics such as independent sample t-student and Pierson correlation. The results showed a significant difference between young and adult volleyball players in success achieve score and ability score. However, there was no significant difference between young and adult volleyball players in defeat avoiding score and compete motivation. In addition, there was not significant relationship between the length of activities and motivations' sections in adult and young volleyball player. The application of this study to other sports will be discussed.

Keywords: compete motivation, volleyball player, statistical analysis, sport psychology

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Authors: Bolin Hua

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In city governance, various data are involved, including city component data, demographic data, housing data and all kinds of business data. These data reflects different aspects of people, events and activities. Data generated from various systems are different in form and data source are different because they may come from different sectors. In order to reflect one or several facets of an event or rule, data from multiple sources need fusion together. Data from different sources using different ways of collection raised several issues which need to be resolved. Problem of data fusion include data update and synchronization, data exchange and sharing, file parsing and entry, duplicate data and its comparison, resource catalogue construction. Governments adopt statistical analysis, time series analysis, extrapolation, monitoring analysis, value mining, scenario prediction in order to achieve pattern discovery, law verification, root cause analysis and public opinion monitoring. The result of Multi-source data fusion is to form a uniform central database, which includes people data, location data, object data, and institution data, business data and space data. We need to use meta data to be referred to and read when application needs to access, manipulate and display the data. A uniform meta data management ensures effectiveness and consistency of data in the process of data exchange, data modeling, data cleansing, data loading, data storing, data analysis, data search and data delivery.

Keywords: multi-source data fusion, urban comprehensive management, information fusion, government data

Procedia PDF Downloads 363

Authors: U. Ali Rahoma, Nabil Esawy, Fawzia Ibrahim Moursy, A. H. Hassan, Samy A. Khalil, Ashraf S. Khamees

Abstract:

The design of any solar energy conversion system requires the knowledge of solar radiation data obtained over a long period. Satellite data has been widely used to estimate solar energy where no ground observation of solar radiation is available, yet there are limitations on the temporal coverage of satellite data. Reanalysis is a “retrospective analysis” of the atmosphere parameters generated by assimilating observation data from various sources, including ground observation, satellites, ships, and aircraft observation with the output of NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models, to develop an exhaustive record of weather and climate parameters. The evaluation of the performance of reanalysis datasets (ERA-5) for North Africa against high-quality surface measured data was performed using statistical analysis. The estimation of global solar radiation (GSR) distribution over six different selected locations in North Africa during ten years from the period time 2011 to 2020. The root means square error (RMSE), mean bias error (MBE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of reanalysis data of solar radiation range from 0.079 to 0.222, 0.0145 to 0.198, and 0.055 to 0.178, respectively. The seasonal statistical analysis was performed to study seasonal variation of performance of datasets, which reveals the significant variation of errors in different seasons—the performance of the dataset changes by changing the temporal resolution of the data used for comparison. The monthly mean values of data show better performance, but the accuracy of data is compromised. The solar radiation data of ERA-5 is used for preliminary solar resource assessment and power estimation. The correlation coefficient (R2) varies from 0.93 to 99% for the different selected sites in North Africa in the present research. The goal of this research is to give a good representation for global solar radiation to help in solar energy application in all fields, and this can be done by using gridded data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF and producing a new model to give a good result.

Keywords: solar energy, solar radiation, ERA-5, potential energy

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Authors: L. Edirisinghe, P. Mukherjee, H. Edirisinghe

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Virtual Container Yard (VCY) is a modern concept that helps to reduce the empty container repositioning cost of carriers. The concept of VCY is based on container interchange between shipping lines. Although this mechanism has been theoretically accepted by the shipping community as a feasible solution, it has not yet achieved the necessary momentum among container shipping lines (CSL). This paper investigates whether there is any legal influence on this industry myopia about the VCY. It is believed that this is the first publication that focuses on the legal aspects of container exchange between carriers. Not much literature on this subject is available. This study establishes with statistical evidence that there is a phobia prevailing in the shipping industry that exchanging containers with other carriers may lead to various legal implications. The complexity of exchange is two faceted. CSLs assume that offering a container to another carrier (obviously, a competitor in terms of commercial context) or using a container offered by another carrier may lead to undue legal implications. This research reveals that this fear is reflected through four types of perceived components, namely: shipping associate; warehouse associate; network associate; and trading associate. These components carry eighteen subcomponents that comprehensively cover the entire process of a container shipment. The statistical explanation has been supported through regression analysis; INCO terms were used to illustrate the shipping process.

Keywords: virtual container yard, legal, maritime law, inventory

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Authors: M. Pramila Devi, N. V. N. Indra Kiran

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Control charts, predominantly in the form of X-bar chart, are important tools in statistical process control (SPC). They are useful in determining whether a process is behaving as intended or there are some unnatural causes of variation. A process is out of control if a point falls outside the control limits or a series of point’s exhibit an unnatural pattern. In this paper, a study is carried out on four training algorithms for CCPs recognition. For those algorithms optimal structure is identified and then they are studied for type I and type II errors for generalization without early stopping and with early stopping and the best one is proposed.

Keywords: control chart pattern recognition, neural network, backpropagation, generalization, early stopping

Procedia PDF Downloads 351

Authors: Andrey Boyko

Abstract:

Nowadays, there is no consensus about the influence of urethral plate (UP) width on the surgical outcomes after distal hypospadias repair. The purpose of the research was to study the association between UP width and surgical outcomes after distal hypospadias repair in children. Materials and methods: The study included 138 patients with distal hypospadias. The mean age at the time of surgery was 4.6 years (6 months – 16 years). We measured UP width at the “midpoint within the glans” and used the HOSE scale to assess postoperative outcomes. The patients were divided into 2 groups: group 1 – the patients (107) with UP < 8mm, group 2 – patients (31) with UP > 8mm. All boys underwent TIP repair. Preincision means UP width after incision means UP width, and the UP ratio was analyzed. Statistical data were obtained using Statistica 10. Results: The findings were preincision mean UP width - 5.4 mm and 9.4 mm; after incision mean UP width - 13mm and 17.5 mm; UP ratio - 0.41 and 0.53 in group 1 and group 2, respectively. Most postoperative complications (fistula, meatal stenosis, and stricture) happened in patients with UP width < 8 mm versus ≥ 8 mm (7/107 versus 2/31, respectively). HOSE results were 15.77 (group 1), 15.65 (group 2). The follow up lasted up to 12 months. Statistical analysis proved the absence of correlation between UP width and postoperative complications. Conclusions: In conclusion, it should be noted that the success of surgical repair mostly depended on the surgical technique.

Keywords: children, distal hypospadias, tip repair, urethral plate width

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Authors: Marina Bubalo, Davor Romić, Stjepan Husnjak, Helena Bakić

Abstract:

Even though European Council Directive 91/676/EEC known as Nitrates Directive was adopted in 1991, the issue of water quality preservation in areas of intensive agricultural production still persist all over Europe. High nitrate nitrogen concentrations in surface and groundwater originating from diffuse sources are one of the most important environmental problems in modern intensive agriculture. The fate of nitrogen in soil, surface and groundwater in agricultural area is mostly affected by anthropogenic activity (i.e. agricultural practice) and hydrological and climatological conditions. The aim of this study was to identify impact of land use, soil type, soil vulnerability to pollutant percolation, and natural aquifer vulnerability to nitrate occurrence in surface and groundwater within an intensive agricultural area. The study was set in Varaždin County (northern Croatia), which is under significant influence of the large rivers Drava and Mura and due to that entire area is dominated by alluvial soil with shallow active profile mainly on gravel base. Negative agricultural impact on water quality in this area is evident therefore the half of selected county is a part of delineated nitrate vulnerable zones (NVZ). Data on water quality were collected from 7 surface and 8 groundwater monitoring stations in the County. Also, recent study of the area implied detailed inventory of agricultural production and fertilizers use with the aim to produce new agricultural land use database as one of dominant parameters. The analysis of this database done using ArcGIS 10.1 showed that 52,7% of total County area is agricultural land and 59,2% of agricultural land is used for intensive agricultural production. On the other hand, 56% of soil within the county is classified as soil vulnerable to pollutant percolation. The situation is similar with natural aquifer vulnerability; northern part of the county ranges from high to very high aquifer vulnerability. Statistical analysis of water quality data is done using SPSS 13.0. Cluster analysis group both surface and groundwater stations in two groups according to nitrate nitrogen concentrations. Mean nitrate nitrogen concentration in surface water – group 1 ranges from 4,2 to 5,5 mg/l and in surface water – group 2 from 24 to 42 mg/l. The results are similar, but evidently higher, in groundwater samples; mean nitrate nitrogen concentration in group 1 ranges from 3,9 to 17 mg/l and in group 2 from 36 to 96 mg/l. ANOVA analysis confirmed statistical significance between stations that are classified in the same group. The previously listed parameters (land use, soil type, etc.) were used in factorial correspondence analysis (FCA) to detect importance of each stated parameter in local water quality. Since stated parameters mostly cannot be altered, there is obvious necessity for more precise and more adapted land management in such conditions.

Keywords: agricultural area, nitrate, factorial correspondence analysis, water quality

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Authors: Joao Paulo Matheus, Renan Fangel

Abstract:

Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic, inflammatory, systemic and progressive disease that affects the synovial joints bilaterally, causing definitive orthopedic damage. It has a higher prevalence in postmenopausal female patients. It is a disabling disease that causes joint deformities that may compromise the functionality of the affected segment. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of low-intensity therapeutic laser on the perception of pain and quality of life in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. This is a randomized clinical study involving 6 women with a mean age of 56.8+6.3 years. Exclusion criteria: patients with acute pain, chronic infectious disease, underlying acute or chronic underlying disease. An AsGaAl laser with 808nm wavelength, 100mW power, beam output area of 0.028cm2, power density of 3.57W/cm2 was used. The laser was applied at pre-defined points in the interphalangeal and metacarpophalangeal joints, totaling 24 points, 2 times a week, for 4 weeks, totaling 8 sessions. The Pain Inventory (IBD) and Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) were used for the analysis of pain and for the WHOQOL-bref quality of life assessment. There was no statistical difference between the onset (5.67±2.66) and the final (4.67±3.78) of treatments (p=0.70). There was also no statistical difference between the beginning (5.67±2.66) and the final (4.67±3.78) of the treatments in the VAS analysis (p=0.68). The overall mean quality of life obtained by the questionnaire at the start of treatment was 42.3±7.6, while at the end of treatment it was 58.5±7.6 (p=0.01) and the domains of the questionnaire with significant differences were: psychological domain 42.9±6.8 and 66.7±12.9 (p=0.004), social domain 39.9±5.7 and 68.1±6.3 (p=0,0005) and environmental domain 36.3±7.3 and 56.3±12.5 (p=0.003). It can be concluded that the low-intensity therapeutic laser did not produce significant changes in the painful period of rheumatoid arthritis patients. However, there was an improvement in patients' quality of life in the psychological, social and environmental aspects.

Keywords: laser therapy, pain, quality of life, rheumatoid arthritis

Procedia PDF Downloads 228