Search results for: Climate modelling

Authors: Hamidoddin Yousefi, Ahmad Nikbakht

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The Sistan Plain, situated in the Balochistan region of southeastern Iran, is renowned for its arid climatic conditions and prevailing winds that persist for approximately 120 days annually. The region faces multiple challenges, including drought susceptibility, exacerbated by wind erosion, temperature fluctuations, and the influence of policies implemented by neighboring Afghanistan and Iran. This study focuses on investigating the characteristics of jet streams within the Sistan Plain and their implications for global climate change. Various models are employed to analyze convective mass fluxes, horizontal moisture transport, temporal variance, and the calculation of radiation convective equilibrium within the atmosphere. Key considerations encompass the distribution of relative humidity, dry air, and absolute humidity. Moreover, the research aims to predict the interplay between jet streams and human activities, particularly regarding their environmental impacts and water scarcity. The investigation encompasses both local and global environmental consequences, drawing upon historical climate change data and comprehensive field research. The anticipated outcomes of this study hold substantial potential for mitigating global climate change and its associated environmental ramifications. By comprehending the dynamics of jet streams and their interconnections with human activities, effective strategies can be formulated to address water scarcity and minimize environmental degradation.

Keywords: Sistani plain, Baluchistan, Hamoun lake, climate change, jet streams, environmental impact, water scarcity, mitigation

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Authors: Sophie N. Selby-Pham, Yudie Wang, Louise Bennett

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Consumption of grapes promotes health and reduces the risk of chronic diseases due to the action of grape phytochemicals in regulation of Oxidative Stress and Inflammation (OSI). The bioefficacy of phytochemicals depends on their absorption in the human body. The time required for phytochemicals to achieve maximal plasma concentration (Tₘₐₓ) after oral intake reflects the time window of maximal bioefficacy of phytochemicals, with Tₘₐₓ dependent on physicochemical properties of phytochemicals. This research collated physicochemical properties of grape phytochemicals from white and red grapes to predict their Tₘₐₓ using pharmacokinetic modelling. The predicted values of Tₘₐₓ were then compared to the measured Tₘₐₓ collected from clinical studies to determine the accuracy of prediction. In both liquid and solid intake forms, white grapes exhibit a shorter Tₘₐₓ range (0.5-2.5 h) versus red grapes (1.5-5h). The prediction accuracy of Tₘₐₓ for grape phytochemicals was 33.3% total error of prediction compared to the mean, indicating high prediction accuracy. Pharmacokinetic modelling allows prediction of Tₘₐₓ without costly clinical trials, informing dosing frequency for sustained presence of phytochemicals in the body to optimize the health benefits of phytochemicals.

Keywords: absorption kinetics, phytochemical, phytochemical absorption prediction model, Vitis vinifera

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Authors: Alime Cengiz, Talip Kahyaoglu

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Roasting process has the major importance to obtain desired aromatic taste of nuts. In this study, two kinds of roasting process were applied to hulled sesame seeds - vacuum oven and hot air roasting. Efficiency of Gene Expression Programming (GEP), a new soft computing technique of evolutionary algorithm that describes the cause and effect relationships in the data modelling system, and response surface methodology (RSM) were examined in the modelling of roasting processes over a range of temperature (120-180°C) for various times (30-60 min). Color attributes (L*, a*, b*, Browning Index (BI)), textural properties (hardness and fracturability) and moisture content were evaluated and modelled by RSM and GEP. The GEP-based formulations and RSM approach were compared with experimental results and evaluated according to correlation coefficients. The results showed that both GEP and RSM were found to be able to adequately learn the relation between roasting conditions and physical and textural parameters of roasted seeds. However, GEP had better prediction performance than the RSM with the high correlation coefficients (R2 >0.92) for the all quality parameters. This result indicates that the soft computing techniques have better capability for describing the physical changes occuring in sesame seeds during roasting process.

Keywords: genetic expression programming, response surface methodology, roasting, sesame seed

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Authors: Asit K. Sikary, O. P. Murty

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Adipocere formation is a modification of the process of putrefaction. It consists mainly of saturated fatty acids, formed by the post-mortem hydrolysis and hydrogenation of body fats with the help of bacterial enzymes in the presence of warmth, moisture and anaerobic bacteria. In temperate climate, it takes weeks to develop while in India it starts to begin within 4-5 days. In this study, we have collected cases with adipocere formation, which were from the South Delhi region (average room temperature 27-390C) and autopsied at our centre. Details of the circumstances of the death, cause and time of death, surrounding environment and demographic profile of the deceased were taken into account. Total 16 cases were included in this study. Adipocere formation was predominantly present over cheeks, shoulder, breast, flanks, buttocks, and thighs. Out of 16, 11 cases were found in a dry atmosphere, 5 cases were brought from the water. There were 5 cases in which adipocere formation was seen in less than 2 days, and among them, in 1 case, as early as one day. This study showed that adipocere formation can be seen as early as 1 day in a hot and humid environment.

Keywords: adipocere, drowning, hanging, humid environment, strangulation, subtropical climate

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Authors: Huynh Viet Khai, Mitsuyasu Yabe

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The study investigated the economic value of biodiversity attributes that could provide policy-makers reliable information to estimate welfare losses due to biodiversity reductions and analyse the trade-off between biodiversity and economics. In order to obtain the non-market benefits of biodiversity conservation, an indirect utility function and willingness to pay for biodiversity attributes were applied using the approach of choice modelling with the analysis of conditional logit model. The study found that Mekong Delta residents accepted their willingness to pay for VND 913 monthly for a one percent increase in healthy vegetation, VND 360 for an additional mammal species and VND 2,440 to avoid the welfare losses of 100 local farmers.

Keywords: choice modelling, genetic resources, wetland conservation, marginal willingness to pay

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Authors: A. Bouamrane, M. T. Bouziane, K. Boutebba, Y. Djebbar

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This paper aims to develop a decision support tool to provide solutions to the problems of sewer networks management/maintenance in order to assist the manager to sort sections upon priority of intervention by taking account of the technical, economic, social and environmental standards as well as the managers’ strategy. This solution uses the Analytic Network Process (ANP) developed by Thomas Saaty, coupled with a set of tools for modelling and collecting integrated data from a geographic information system (GIS). It provides to the decision maker a tool adapted to the reality on the ground and effective in usage compared to the means and objectives of the manager.

Keywords: multi-criteria decision support, maintenance, Geographic Information System, modelling

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

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This study evaluated the uncertainties involved in the solar radiation projections generated by the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) of the Weather and Climate Prediction Center (CPTEC) belonging to Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), with the aim of identifying efficiency in the projections for solar radiation of said model and in this way establish the viability of its use. Two different scenarios elaborated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were evaluated: RCP 4.5 (with more optimistic contour conditions) and 8.5 (with more pessimistic initial conditions). The method used to verify the accuracy of the present model was the Nash coefficient and the Statistical bias, as it better represents these atmospheric patterns. The BESM showed a tendency to overestimate the data ​​of solar radiation projections in most regions of the state of Rio Grande do Sul and through the validation methods adopted by this study, BESM did not present a satisfactory accuracy.

Keywords: climate changes, projections, solar radiation, uncertainty

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Authors: Madina Hamiane

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Modelling and simulation of an analogy function generator is presented based on a polynomial expansion model. The proposed function generator model is based on a 10th order polynomial approximation of any of the required functions. The polynomial approximations of these functions can then be implemented using basic CMOS circuit blocks. In this paper, a circuit model is proposed that can simultaneously generate many different mathematical functions. The circuit model is designed and simulated with HSPICE and its performance is demonstrated through the simulation of a number of non-linear functions.

Keywords: modelling and simulation, analog function generator, polynomial approximation, CMOS transistors

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Authors: Soorya Vennila

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The present study answers the questions; how does climate change affect the water security in drought prone Ramanathapuram district? and what has water insecurity done to the health of the coastal community? The study area chosen is Devipattinam in Ramanathapuram district. Climate change evidentially wreaked havoc on the community with saltwater intrusion, water quality degradation, water scarcity and its eventual economic, social like power inequality within family and community and health hazards. The climatological data such as rainfall, minimum temperature and maximum temperature were statistically analyzed for trend using Mann-Kendall test. The test was conducted for 14 years (1989-2002) of rainfall data, maximum and minimum temperature and the data were statistically analyzed. At the outset, the water quality samples were collected from Devipattinam to test its physical and chemical parameters and their spatial variation. The results were derived as shown in ARC GIS. Using the water quality test water quality index were framed. And finally, key Informant interview, questionnaire were conducted to capture the gender perception and problem. The data collected were thereafter interpreted using SPSS software for recommendations and suggestions to overcome water scarcity and health problems.

Keywords: health, watersecurity, water quality, climate change

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Authors: Moriom Akter Mousumi, Spyridon Paparrizos, Fulco Ludwig

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Rice yield reduction due to climate change-induced disease occurrence is becoming a great concern for coastal farmers of Bangladesh. The development of participatory climate information services (CIS) based on farmers’ needs could implicitly facilitate farmers to get disease forecasts and make better decisions to manage diseases. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate how participatory climate information services assist coastal rice farmers to take up rice disease forecasts and better manage rice diseases by improving their informed decision-making. Through participatory approaches, we developed a tailor-made agrometeorological service through the DROP app to forecast rice diseases and manage them in advance. During farmers field schools (FFS) we communicated 7-day disease forecasts during face-to-face weekly meetings using printed paper and, messenger app derived from DROP app. Results show that the majority of the farmers understand disease forecasts through visualization, symbols, and text. The majority of them use disease forecast information directly from the DROP app followed by face-to-face meetings, messenger app, and printed paper. Farmers participation and engagement during capacity building training at FFS also assist them in making more informed decisions and improved management of diseases using both preventive measures and chemical measures throughout the rice cultivation period. We conclude that the development of participatory CIS and the associated capacity-building and training of farmers has increased farmers' understanding and uptake of disease forecasts to better manage of rice diseases. Participatory services such as the DROP app offer great potential as an adaptation option for climate-smart rice production under changing climatic conditions.

Keywords: participatory climate service, disease forecast, disease management, informed decision making, coastal Bangladesg

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Authors: Arup K. Sarma, Jayshree Hazarika

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The North-eastern part of India, which receives heavier rainfall than other parts of the subcontinent, is of great concern now-a-days with regard to climate change. High intensity rainfall for short duration and longer dry spell, occurring due to impact of climate change, affects river morphology too. In the present study, an attempt is made to delineate the North-Eastern region of India into some homogeneous clusters based on the Fuzzy Clustering concept and to compare the resulting clusters obtained by using conventional methods and non conventional methods of clustering. The concept of clustering is adapted in view of the fact that, impact of climate change can be studied in a homogeneous region without much variation, which can be helpful in studies related to water resources planning and management. 10 IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) stations, situated in various regions of the North-east, have been selected for making the clusters. The results of the Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) analysis show different clustering patterns for different conditions. From the analysis and comparison it can be concluded that non conventional method of using GCM data is somehow giving better results than the others. However, further analysis can be done by taking daily data instead of monthly means to reduce the effect of standardization.

Keywords: climate change, conventional and nonconventional methods of clustering, FCM analysis, homogeneous regions

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Authors: Halima Akhtar, Abhijeet Chandra

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The paper attempts to analyze the factors that influence the Consumer Behavior to purchase apparel through the internet. The intentions to buy apparels online were based on in terms of user style, orientation, size and reputation of the merchant, social influence, perceived information utility, perceived ease of use, perceived pleasure and attractiveness and perceived trust and risk. The basic framework used was Technology acceptance model to explain apparels acceptance. A survey was conducted to gather the data from 200 people. The measures and hypotheses were analyzed using Correlation testing and would be further validated by the Structural Equation Modelling. The implications of the findings for theory and practice could be used by marketers of online apparel websites. Based on the values obtained, we can conclude that the factors such as social influence, Perceived information utility, attractiveness and trust influence the decision for a user to buy apparels online. The major factors which are found to influence an online apparel buying decision are ease of use, attractiveness that a website can offer and the trust factor which a user shares with the website.

Keywords: E-tailers, consumer behaviour, technology acceptance model, structural modelling

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Authors: Bing Zhang, Jingyi Zhang, Mudan Chen

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Fibre-reinforced polymer (FRP) composites have been extensively utilised in various industries due to their high specific strength, e.g., aerospace, renewable energy, automotive, and marine. However, they have relatively low electrical conductivity than metals, especially in the out-of-plane direction. Conductive metal strips or meshes are typically employed to protect composites when designing lightweight structures that may be subjected to lightning strikes, such as composite wings. Unfortunately, this approach downplays the lightweight advantages of FRP composites, thereby limiting their potential applications. Extensive studies have been undertaken to improve the electrical conductivity of FRP composites. The authors are amongst the pioneers who use through-thickness reinforcement (TTR) to tailor the electrical conductivity of composites. Compared to the conventional approaches using conductive fillers, the through-thickness reinforcement approach has been proven to be able to offer a much larger improvement to the through-thickness conductivity of composites. In this study, an advanced high-fidelity numerical modelling strategy is presented to investigate the effects of through-thickness reinforcement on both the in-plane and out-of-plane electrical conductivities of FRP composites. The critical micro-structural features of through-thickness reinforced composites incorporated in the modelling framework are 1) the fibre waviness formed due to TTR insertion; 2) the resin-rich pockets formed due to resin flow in the curing process following TTR insertion; 3) the fibre crimp, i.e., fibre distortion in the thickness direction of composites caused by TTR insertion forces. In addition, each interlaminar interface is described separately. An IMA/M21 composite laminate with a quasi-isotropic stacking sequence is employed to calibrate and verify the modelling framework. The modelling results agree well with experimental measurements for bothering in-plane and out-plane conductivities. It has been found that the presence of conductive TTR can increase the out-of-plane conductivity by around one order, but there is less improvement in the in-plane conductivity, even at the TTR areal density of 0.1%. This numerical tool provides valuable references as a design tool for through-thickness reinforced composites when exploring their electrical applications. Parametric studies are undertaken using the numerical tool to investigate critical parameters that affect the electrical conductivities of composites, including TTR material, TTR areal density, stacking sequence, and interlaminar conductivity. Suggestions regarding the design of electrical through-thickness reinforced composites are derived from the numerical modelling campaign.

Keywords: composite structures, design, electrical conductivity, numerical modelling, through-thickness reinforcement

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Authors: Scarlet Alejandra Romano, Joni Kareco

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The three pillars of sustainability (social, economic and environmental) are relevant concepts to the Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) industry because of the increase of international agreements and guidelines related to this topic during the last years. Considering these three pillars, the AEC industry faces important challenges, for instance, to decrease the carbon emissions (environmental challenge), design sustainable spaces for people (social challenge), and improve the technology of this field to reduce costs and environmental problems (economic and environmental challenge). One alternative to overcome these challenges is Building Information Modelling program (BIM) because according to several authors, this technology improves the performance of the sustainable buildings in all their lifecycle phases. The main objective of this paper is to explore and analyse the current advantages and disadvantages of the BIM implementation in the life-cycle of sustainable buildings considering the three pillars of sustainability as analysis parameters. The methodology established to achieve this objective is exploratory-descriptive with the literature review technique. The partial results illustrate that despite the BIM disadvantages and the lack of information about its social sustainability advantages, this software represents a significant opportunity to improve the three sustainable pillars of the sustainable buildings.

Keywords: building information modelling, building lifecycle analysis, sustainability, sustainable buildings

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Authors: Signe Voltelen, Kristin Astrup Aas

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In the Scandinavian cities, there is a raised focus on the potential of using urban agriculture in city development, both as a tool for handling challenges provoked by climate change and to develop new, and stronger social communities. During the last couple of years, Copenhagen has experienced an increase in extreme weather resulting in dramatical floods with huge humanitarian and economic consequences. As an approach for climate adaption and mitigation the government has made a strategy for changing a significant amount of the cities hard surfaces into green and absorbing surfaces. Including urban farms and gardens. In close collaboration with the municipality, it has been possible to implement citizen-run gardens under the different concepts climate adaption and food literacy. Like other European cities, Copenhagen has a historical tradition of small-scale farming for food security inside the city, and in the outskirts of the urban area. Lately, this tradition has gotten new relevance, and new initiatives are popping up. In addition to providing local food, the urban farm becomes a semi-public, semi-private room that invites to community and integration across ethnicity, social background, and age. The direct interaction in the process of farming creates a connection between the urban and the rural and are educational for people growing up and living their whole life in the dense city. In the paper, three local example models of urban agriculture are presented, and the experiences of their potential as tools for developing social and environmental sustainable cities is examined.

Keywords: city development, climate mitigation, community building, urban agriculture, urban- rural transition, food security

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Authors: Bayu Rizky Pratama, Hardiansyah Nur Sahaya

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Riau Province is the worst emitter for forest burning which causes the huge scale of externality such as declining of forest habitat, health disease, and climate change impact. Indonesia forum of budget transparency for Riau Province (FITRA) reported the length of forest burning reached about 186.069 hectares which is 7,13% of total national forest burning disaster, consisted of 107.000 hectares of peatland and the rest 79.069 hectares of mineral land. Anti-fire group, a voluntary group next to the forest, to help in protecting the forest burning and heavily smoke residual has been established but unfortunately the implementation still far from expectation. This research will emphasize on (1) how the anti-fire group contribute to fire hazard tackling; (2) the identification of SWOT analysis to enhance the group benefit; and (3) government policy implication to maximize the role of Anti-fire group and reduce the case of forest burning as well as heavily smoke which can raise climate change impact. As the observation found some weakness from SWOT identification such as (1) lack of education and training; (2) facility in extinguishing the fire damage; (3) law for economic incentive; (4) communication and field experience; (5) also the reporting the fire case.

Keywords: anti-fire group, forest burning impact, SWOT, climate change mitigation

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Authors: Nidhi Nalin

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This study is theoretical modelling of the fermentation process of glucose in agricultural wastes like discarded peaches to produce hydrogen, acetic acid, and carbon dioxide using Thermotoga neopolitana bacteria. The hydrogen gas produced in this process can be used in hydrogen fuel cells to generate power, and the fermented broth with acetic acid and salts could be utilized as salty vinegar if enough acetic acid is produced. The theoretical modelling was done using SuperPro software, and the results indicated how much sugar (discarded peaches) is required to produce both hydrogen and vinegar for the process to be profitable.

Keywords: fermentation, thermotoga, hydrogen, vinegar, biofuel

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Authors: Shengyong Zhang, Mike Mikulich

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Vibration is a crucial limiting consideration in the analysis and design of airplane wing structures to avoid disastrous failures due to the propagation of existing cracks in the material. In this paper, we build CAD models of aircraft wings to capture the design intent with configurations. Subsequent FEA vibration analysis is performed to study the natural vibration properties and impulsive responses of the resulting user-defined wing models. This study reveals the variations of the wing’s vibration characteristics with respect to changes in its structural configurations. Integrating CAD modelling and FEA vibration analysis enables designers to improve wing architectures for implementing design requirements in the preliminary design stage.

Keywords: aircraft wing, CAD modelling, FEA, vibration analysis

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Authors: M. Y. Ismail, M. Inam

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This paper presents equivalent circuit modeling of active planar reflectors which can be used for the detailed analysis and characterization of reflector performance in terms of lumped components. Equivalent circuit representation has been proposed for PIN diodes and liquid crystal based active planar reflectors designed within X-band frequency range. A very close agreement has been demonstrated between equivalent circuit results, 3D EM simulated results as well as measured scattering parameter results. In the case of measured results, a maximum discrepancy of 1.05dB was observed in the reflection loss performance, which can be attributed to the losses occurred during measurement process.

Keywords: Equivalent circuit modelling, planar reflectors, reflectarray antenna, PIN diode, liquid crystal

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Authors: Roghieh Eskandari, Ali Motamedi

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There is a significant demand for renovation as-built assets are aging. To plan for a desirable and comfortable indoor environment, stakeholders use simulation technics to assess potential renovation scenarios with the innovative designs. Diminished Reality (DR), which is a technique of visually removing unwanted objects from the real-world scene in real-time, can contribute to the renovation design visualization for stakeholders by removing existing structures and assets from the scene. Using DR, the objects to be demolished or changed will be visually removed from the scene for a better understanding of the intended design scenarios for stakeholders. This research proposes an integrated system for renovation plan visualization using Building Information Modelling (BIM) data and mixed reality (MR) technologies. It presents a BIM-based DR method that utilizes a textured BIM model of the environment to accurately register the virtual model of the occluded background to the physical world in real-time. This system can facilitate the simulation of the renovation plan by visually diminishing building elements in an indoor environment.

Keywords: diminished reality, building information modelling, mixed reality, stock renovation

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Authors: Farzad Shirzad, Bohlol Alijani, Mehry Akbary, Mohammad Saligheh

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Climate change and global warming are very important issues today. The process of climate change, especially changes in temperature and precipitation, is the most important issue in the environmental sciences. Climate change means changing the averages in the long run. Iran is located in arid and semi-arid regions due to its proximity to the equator and its location in the subtropical high pressure zone. In this respect, the Hyrcanian forest is a green necklace between the Caspian Sea and the south of the Alborz mountain range. In the forty-third session of UNESCO, it was registered as the second natural heritage of Iran. Beech is one of the most important tree species and the most industrial species of Hyrcanian forests. In this research, using dendroclimatology, the width of the tree ring, and climatic data of temperature and precipitation from Shanderman meteorological station located in the study area, And non-parametric Mann-Kendall statistical method to investigate the trend of climate change over a time series of 202 years of growth ringsAnd Pearson statistical method was used to correlate the growth of "ring" growth rings of beech trees with climatic variables in the region. The results obtained from the time series of beech growth rings showed that the changes in beech growth rings had a downward and negative trend and were significant at the level of 5% and climate change occurred. The average minimum, medium, and maximum temperatures and evaporation in the growing season had an increasing trend, and the annual precipitation had a decreasing trend. Using Pearson method during fitting the correlation of diameter of growth rings with temperature, for the average in July, August, and September, the correlation is negative, and the average temperature in July, August, and September is negative, and for the average The average maximum temperature in February was correlation-positive and at the level of 95% was significant, and with precipitation, in June the correlation was at the level of 95% positive and significant.

Keywords: climate change, dendroclimatology, hyrcanian forest, beech

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Authors: Gauri Sreekumar, Sabuj Kumar Mandal

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Contributing about 18% to India’s Gross Domestic Product, the agricultural sector plays a significant role in the Indian rural economy. Despite being the primary source of livelihood for more than half of India’s population, most of them are marginal and small farmers facing several challenges due to agro-climatic shocks. Climate change is expected to increase the risk in the regions that are highly agriculture dependent. With systematic and scientific evidence of changes in rainfall, temperature and other extreme climate events, migration started to emerge as a survival strategy for the farm households. In this backdrop, our present study aims to combine the two strands of literature and attempts to explore whether migration is the only adaptation strategy for the farmers once they experience crop failures due adverse climatic condition. Combining the temperature and rainfall information from the weather data provided by the Indian Meteorological Department with the household level panel data on Indian states belonging to the Eastern and Semi-Arid Tropics regions from the Village Dynamics in South Asia (VDSA) collected by the International Crop Research Institute for the Semi-arid Tropics, we form a rich panel data for the years 2010-2014. A Recursive Econometric Model is used to establish the three-way nexus between climate change-yield-migration while addressing the role of irrigation and local non-farm income diversification. Using Three Stage Least Squares Estimation method, we find that climate change induced yield loss is a major driver of farmers’ migration. However, irrigation and local level non-farm income diversification are found to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change on migration. Based on our empirical results, we suggest for enhancing irrigation facilities and making local non-farm income diversification opportunities available to increase farm productivity and thereby reduce farmers’ migration.

Keywords: climate change, migration, adaptation, mitigation

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Authors: Ana C. V. Freitas, Luciana B. M. Pires, Joao P. Martins

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In recent years, fire dynamics in deforestation areas of tropical forests have received considerable attention because of their relationship to climate change. Climate models project great increases in the frequency and area of drought in the Amazon region, which may increase the occurrence of fires. This study analyzes the historical record number of fire outbreaks in 2017 using satellite-derived data sets of active fire detections, burned area, precipitation, and data of the Fire Program from the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC/INPE). A downward trend in the number of fire outbreaks occurred in the first half of 2017, in relation to the previous year. This decrease can be related to the fact that 2017 was not an El Niño year and, therefore, the observed rainfall and temperature in the Amazon region was close to normal conditions. Meanwhile, the worst period in history for fire outbreaks began with the subsequent arrival of the dry season. September of 2017 exceeded all monthly records for number of fire outbreaks per month in the entire series. This increase was mainly concentrated in Bolivia and in the states of Amazonas, northeastern Pará, northern Rondônia and Acre, regions with high densities of rural settlements, which strongly suggests that human action is the predominant factor, aggravated by the lack of precipitation during the dry season allowing the fires to spread and reach larger areas. Thus, deforestation in the Amazon is primarily a human-driven process: climate trends may be providing additional influences.

Keywords: Amazon forest, climate change, deforestation, human-driven process, fire outbreaks

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Authors: Anto Antony Samy, Atefeh Golbang, Edward Archer, Alistair McIlhagger

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Fused deposition modelling (FDM) is one of the additive manufacturing techniques that has become highly attractive in the industrial and academic sectors. However, parts fabricated through FDM are highly susceptible to geometrical defects such as warpage, shrinkage, and delamination that can severely affect their function. Among the thermoplastic polymer feedstock for FDM, semi-crystalline polymers are highly prone to part distortion due to polymer crystallization. In this study, the influence of FDM processing conditions such as chamber temperature and print bed temperature on the induced thermal residual stress and resulting warpage are investigated using the 3D transient thermal model for a semi-crystalline polymer. The thermo-mechanical properties and the viscoelasticity of the polymer, as well as the crystallization physics, which considers the crystallinity of the polymer, are coupled with the evolving temperature gradient of the print model. From the results, it was observed that increasing the chamber temperature from 25°C to 75°C lead to a decrease of 1.5% residual stress, while decreasing bed temperature from 100°C to 60°C, resulted in a 33% increase in residual stress and a significant rise of 138% in warpage. The simulated warpage data is validated by comparing it with the measured warpage values of the samples using 3D scanning.

Keywords: finite element analysis, fused deposition modelling, residual stress, warpage

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Authors: Chi Zhang, Jun Jiang

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Constitutive equations are very important in finite element (FE) modeling, and the accuracy of the material constants in the equations have significant effects on the accuracy of the FE models. A wide range of constitutive equations are available; however, fitting the material constants in the constitutive equations could be complex and time-consuming due to the strong non-linearity and relationship between the constants. This work will focus on the development of a set of unified MATLAB programs for fitting the material constants in the constitutive equations efficiently. Users will only need to supply experimental data in the required format and run the program without modifying functions or precisely guessing the initial values, or finding the parameters in previous works and will be able to fit the material constants efficiently.

Keywords: constitutive equations, FE modelling, MATLAB program, non-linear curve fitting

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Authors: M. Bonello, D. Micallef, S. P. Borg

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Driven by increased comfort standards, but at the same time high energy consciousness, energy-efficient space cooling has become an essential aspect of building design. Its aims are simple, aiming at providing satisfactory thermal comfort for individuals in an interior space using low energy consumption cooling systems. In this context, evaporative cooling is both an energy-efficient and an eco-friendly cooling process. In the past two decades, several academic studies have been performed to determine the resulting thermal comfort produced by an evaporative cooling system, including studies on temperature profiles, air speed profiles, effect of clothing and personnel activity. To the best knowledge of the authors, no studies have yet considered the analysis of relative humidity (RH) profiles in a space cooled using evaporative cooling. Such a study will determine the effect of different humidity levels on a person's thermal comfort and aid in the consequent improvement designs of such future systems. Under this premise, the research objective is to characterise the resulting different RH profiles in a chamber micro-climate using the evaporative cooling system in which the inlet air speed, temperature and humidity content are varied. The chamber shall be modelled using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) in ANSYS Fluent. Relative humidity shall be modelled using a species transport model while the k-ε RNG formulation is the proposed turbulence model that is to be used. The model shall be validated with measurements taken using an identical test chamber in which tests are to be conducted under the different inlet conditions mentioned above, followed by the verification of the model's mesh and time step. The verified and validated model will then be used to simulate other inlet conditions which would be impractical to conduct in the actual chamber. More details of the modelling and experimental approach will be provided in the full paper The main conclusions from this work are two-fold: the micro-climatic relative humidity spatial distribution within the room is important to consider in the context of investigating comfort at occupant level; and the investigation of a human being's thermal comfort (based on Predicted Mean Vote – Predicted Percentage Dissatisfied [PMV-PPD] values) and its variation with different locations of relative humidity values. The study provides the necessary groundwork for investigating the micro-climatic RH conditions of environments cooled using evaporative cooling. Future work may also target the analysis of ways in which evaporative cooling systems may be improved to better the thermal comfort of human beings, specifically relating to the humidity content around a sedentary person.

Keywords: chamber micro-climate, evaporative cooling, relative humidity, thermal comfort

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Authors: Elena Cangelosi, Wayne Beyea

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This research expands the resilience planning literature by exploring the barriers and enablers to climate and health adaptation planning for small urban, coastal Great Lakes communities. With funding from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Climate Ready City and States Initiative, this research took place during a 3-year pilot intervention project which integrates urban planning and public health. The project used the CDC’s Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) framework to prevent or reduce the human health impacts from climate change in Marquette County, Michigan. Using a deliberation with the analysis planning process, interviews, focus groups, and community meetings with over 25 stakeholder groups and over 100 participants identified the area’s climate-related health concerns and adaptation interventions to address those concerns. Marquette County, on the shores of Lake Superior, the largest of the Great Lakes, was selected for the project based on their existing adaptive capacity and proactive approach to climate adaptation planning. With Marquette County as the context, this study fills a gap in the adaptation literature, which currently heavily emphasizes large-urban or agriculturally-based rural areas, and largely neglects small urban areas. This research builds on the qualitative case-study, survey, and interview approach established by previous researchers on contextual barriers and enablers for adaptation planning. This research uses a case study approach, including surveys and interviews of public officials, to identify the barriers and enablers for climate and health adaptation planning for small-urban areas within a large, non-agricultural, Great Lakes county. The researchers hypothesize that the barriers and enablers will, in some cases, overlap those found in other contexts, but in many cases, will be unique to a rural setting. The study reveals that funding, staff capacity, and communication across a large, rural geography act as the main barriers, while strong networks and collaboration, interested leaders, and community interest through a strong human-land connection act as the primary enablers. Challenges unique to rural areas are revealed, including weak opportunities for grant funding, large geographical distances, communication challenges with an aging and remote population, and the out-migration of education residents. Enablers that may be unique to rural contexts include strong collaborative relationships across jurisdictions for regional work and strong connections between residents and the land. As the factors that enable and prevent climate change planning are highly contextual, understanding, and appropriately addressing the unique factors at play for small-urban communities is key for effective planning in those areas. By identifying and addressing the barriers and enablers to climate and health adaptation planning for small-urban, coastal areas, this study can help Great Lakes communities appropriately build resilience to the adverse impacts of climate change. In addition, this research expands the breadth of research and understanding of the challenges and opportunities planners confront in the face of climate change.

Keywords: climate adaptation and resilience, climate change adaptation, climate change and urban resilience, governance and urban resilience

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Authors: Sen Tanmoy, Jain Sarika, Panda Jagabandhu

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The studies regarding the impact of urbanization using the WRF-ARW model rely heavily on the static geographical information selected, including domain configuration and land use land cover (LULC) data. Accurate representation of LULC data provides essential information for understanding urban growth and simulating meteorological parameters such as temperature, precipitation etc. Researchers are using different LULC data as per availability and their requirements. As far as India is concerned, we have very limited resources and data availability. So, it is important to understand how we can optimize our results using limited LULC data. In this review article, we explored how a LULC map is generated from different sources in the Indian context and what its significance is in WRF-ARW modeling to study urbanization/Climate change or any other meteorological parameters. Bibliometric analyses were also performed in this review article based on countries of study and indexed keywords. Finally, some key points are marked out for selecting the most suitable LULC map for any urbanization-related study.

Keywords: LULC, LULC mapping, LANDSAT, WRF-ARW, ISRO, bibliometric Analysis.

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Authors: Halima Kilungu, Pantaleo, K. T. Munishi

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Climate and land-cover change affect nature-based tourism (NBT) due to its attractions' close connection to natural environments and climate. Thus, knowledge of how each attraction reacts to the changing environments and devising simple yet science based approaches to respond to these changes from a tourism perspective in space and time is timely. Nevertheless, no specific approaches exist to address the knowledge gap. The eco-parcel approach is devised to address the gap and operationalized in Serengeti and Kilimanjaro National Parks: the most climate-sensitive NBT destinations in Africa. The approach is partly descriptive and has three simple steps: (1) to identify and define tourist attractions (i.e. biotic and abiotic attractions). This creates an important database of the most poorly kept information on attractions' types in NBT destinations. (2) To create a spatial and temporal link of each attraction and describe its characteristic environments (e.g. vegetation, soil, water and rock outcrops). This is the most limited attractions' information yet important as a proxy of changes in attractions. (3) To assess the importance of individual attractions for tourism based on tourists' preferences. This information enables an accurate assessment of the value of individual attractions for tourism. The importance of the eco-parcel approach is that it describes how each attraction emerges from and is connected to specific environments, which define its attractiveness in space and time. This information allows accurate assessment of the likely losses or gains of individual attractions when climate or environment changes in specific destinations and equips tourism stakeholders with informed responses.

Keywords: climate change, environmental change, nature-based tourism, Serengeti National Park, Kilimanjaro National Park

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Authors: Razia Sultana

Abstract:

The chapter investigates the roles of local Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) and Community Based Organisations (CBOs) in climate change adaptation through grassroots innovation in urban slums in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The section highlights green infrastructure as an innovative process to mitigate the challenges emanating from climate change at the bottom of the pyramid. The research draws on semi-structured in-depth interviews with 11 NGOs and 2 CBOs working in various slums in Dhaka. The study explores the activities of local agencies relating to urban green infrastructure (UGI) and its possible mitigation of a range of climate change impacts: thermal discomfort, heat stress, flooding and the urban heat island. The main argument of the chapter is unlike the Global North stakeholders’ activities relating to UGI in cities of the Global South have not been expanded on a large scale. Moreover, UGI as a risk management strategy is underutilised in the developing countries. The study finds that, in the context of Bangladesh, climate change adaptation through green infrastructure in cities is still nascent for local NGOs and CBOs. Mostly their activities are limited to addressing the basic needs of slum communities such as water and sanitation. Hence urban slum dwellers have been one of the most vulnerable groups in that they are deprived of the city’s basic ecological services. NGOs are utilizing UGI in an innovative way despite various problems in slums. For instance, land scarcity and land insecurity in slums are two key areas where UGI faces resistance. There are limited instances of NGOs using local and indigenous techniques to encourage slum dwellers to adopt UGI for creating sustainable environments. It is in this context that the paper is an attempt to showcase some of the grassroots innovation that NGOs are currently adopting in slums. Also, some challenges and opportunities are discussed to address UGI as a strategy for climate change adaptation in slums.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, green infrastructure, Dhaka, slums, NGOs

Procedia PDF Downloads 149