Search results for: relative risk

Authors: Ajith Kumar S., Sankaran Namboothiri, Sankrish J., SarathKumar S., S. Anil Lal

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A numerical analysis of flow over a heated circular cylinder is done in this paper. The governing equations, Navier-Stokes, and energy equation within the Boussinesq approximation along with continuity equation are solved using hybrid FEM-FVM technique. The density gradient created due to the heating of the cylinder will induce buoyancy force, opposite to the direction of action of acceleration due to gravity, g. In the present work, the flow direction and the direction of buoyancy force are taken as same (vertical flow configuration), so that the buoyancy force accelerates the mean flow past the cylinder. The relative dominance of the buoyancy force over the inertia force is characterized by the Richardson number (Ri), which is one of the parameter that governs the flow dynamics and heat transfer in this analysis. It is well known that above a certain value of Reynolds number, Re (ratio of inertia force over the viscous forces), the unsteady Von Karman vortices can be seen shedding behind the cylinder. The shedding wake patterns could be seriously altered by heating/cooling the cylinder. The non-dimensional shedding frequency called the Strouhal number is found to be increasing as Ri increases. The aerodynamic force coefficients CL and CD are observed to change its value. In the present vertical configuration of flow over the cylinder, as Ri increases, shedding frequency gets increased and suddenly drops down to zero at a critical value of Richardson number. The unsteady vortices turn to steady standing recirculation bubbles behind the cylinder after this critical Richardson number. This phenomenon is well known in literature as "Breakdown of the Karman Vortex Street". It is interesting to see the flow structures on further increase in the Richardson number. On further heating of the cylinder surface, the size of the recirculation bubble decreases without loosing its symmetry about the horizontal axis passing through the center of the cylinder. The separation angle is found to be decreasing with Ri. Finally, we observed a second critical Richardson number, after which the the flow will be attached to the cylinder surface without any wake behind it. The flow structures will be symmetrical not only about the horizontal axis, but also with the vertical axis passing through the center of the cylinder. At this stage, there will be a "single plume" emanating from the rear stagnation point of the cylinder. We also observed the transition of the plume is a strong function of the Richardson number.

Keywords: drag reduction, flow over circular cylinder, flow control, mixed convection flow, vortex shedding, vortex breakdown

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Authors: Sunday B. Alabi, Edikan P. Felix, Aniediong M. Umo

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Crystal size distribution is of great importance in the sugar factories. It determines the market value of granulated sugar and also influences the cost of production of sugar crystals. Typically, sugar is produced using fed-batch vacuum evaporative crystallizer. The crystallization quality is examined by crystal size distribution at the end of the process which is quantified by two parameters: the average crystal size of the distribution in the mean aperture (MA) and the width of the distribution of the coefficient of variation (CV). Lack of real-time measurement of the sugar crystal size hinders its feedback control and eventual optimisation of the crystallization process. An attractive alternative is to use a soft sensor (model-based method) for online estimation of the sugar crystal size. Unfortunately, the available models for sugar crystallization process are not suitable as they do not contain variables that can be measured easily online. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a regression model for estimating the sugar crystal size as a function of input variables which are easy to measure online. This has the potential to provide real-time estimates of crystal size for its effective feedback control. Using 7 input variables namely: initial crystal size (Lo), temperature (T), vacuum pressure (P), feed flowrate (Ff), steam flowrate (Fs), initial super-saturation (S0) and crystallization time (t), preliminary studies were carried out using Minitab 14 statistical software. Based on the existing sugar crystallizer models, and the typical ranges of these 7 input variables, 128 datasets were obtained from a 2-level factorial experimental design. These datasets were used to obtain a simple but online-implementable 6-input crystal size model. It seems the initial crystal size (Lₒ) does not play a significant role. The goodness of the resulting regression model was evaluated. The coefficient of determination, R² was obtained as 0.994, and the maximum absolute relative error (MARE) was obtained as 4.6%. The high R² (~1.0) and the reasonably low MARE values are an indication that the model is able to predict sugar crystal size accurately as a function of the 6 easy-to-measure online variables. Thus, the model can be used as a soft sensor to provide real-time estimates of sugar crystal size during sugar crystallization process in a fed-batch vacuum evaporative crystallizer.

Keywords: crystal size, regression model, soft sensor, sugar, vacuum evaporative crystallizer

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Authors: Nino Grigolaia

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Introduction - The paper discusses the role of industrial policy in the development of the economy in the country. The main challenges on the way to the implementation of industrial policy are analyzed: the long-term period of industrial policy, the risk of changes in priorities, the limited scope and external shocks. Methodology - Various research methods are used in the paper. The methods of induction, deduction, analysis, synthesis, analogy, correlation and statistical observation are used. Main Findings - Based on the analysis of the current situation in Georgia, the obstacles to the country's industrialization and its supporting factors are identified. Also, the challenges of the country's core industrial policies are revealed. Specific industry development strategies, ways of state support and main directions of new industrial policies are identified. Conclusion - The paper concludes that the development of the industrial sector is critical for the future growth and development of the Georgian economy, which will accelerate the industrialization and structural transformation processes, reduce the trade deficit, increase the exports and create more jobs in the country. The listed changes will guarantee the improvement of the socio-economic situation of the population. Accordingly, it is revealed that the study of industrial policy in Georgia is still actual. Based on the analysis, relevant conclusions in the field of industrialization of the country are developed and recommendations are proposed.

Keywords: industrialization , industrial policy, industrialization of the economy, Georgia priorities

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Authors: Fatemeh Aghamohammadzadeh, Mahdi Asghari Ozma

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SARS-CoV-2 was transmitted from animals to humans in China and through air transport to almost all world countries, including Iran, creating the first pandemic of the 21st century. The virus was spread through droplets from sneezing, coughing, loud talking, and exhalation of sick and asymptomatic people, even during incubation. It was transmitted from human to human directly by inhalation of viruses in droplets or indirectly through contact with infected surfaces, resulting in the death of a significant number of patients, especially the elderly and those with underlying diseases. The virus is more likely to be transmitted in places with high population densities. The chain of transmission of infection can be broken by observing the following: risk perception, reduced travel, complete quarantine in a particular area, home quarantine, social distancing, use of personal protective equipment (PPE), prevention of gatherings, cleaning and disinfection of public utilities and busy places, identifying, isolating and treating infected people, tracking calls, continuing health education, following health principles by people, especially in poor areas, and washing their hands frequently with soap and water or disinfecting them with 70% ethanol.

Keywords: COVID-19, transmission, population density, home quarantine, social distancing

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Authors: F. O. Adeosun, I. O. Orubuloye, O. O. Babalola

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Although caesarean section has greatly improved obstetric care throughout the world, in developing countries there is a great aversion to caesarean section. This study was carried out to examine the rate at which pregnant women with pre-eclampsia choose caesarean section over natural birth. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 500 pre-eclampsia antenatal clients seen at the States University Teaching Hospitals in the last one year. The sample selection was purposive. Information on their educational background, beliefs and attitudes were collected. Data analysis was presented using simple percentages. Out of 500 women studied, 38% favored caesarean section while 62% were against it. About 89% of them understood what caesarean section is, 57.3% of those who understood what caesarean section is will still not choose it as an option. Over 85% of the women believed caesarean section is done for medical reasons. If caesarean section is given as an option for childbirth, 38% would go for it, 29% would try religious intervention, 5.5% would not choose it because of fear, while 27.5% would reject it because they believe it is culturally wrong. Majority of respondents (85%) who favored caesarean delivery are aware of the risk attached to choosing virginal birth but go an extra mile in sourcing funds for a caesarean session while over 64% cannot afford the cost of caesarean delivery. It is therefore pertinent to encourage research in prediction methods and prevention of occurrence, since this would assist patients to plan on how to finance treatment.

Keywords: caesarean section, choice, cost, pre eclampsia, prediction methods

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Authors: Chakkrit Poonpakdee, Jing-Hua Tzen, Ya-Zhen Huang, Yao-Tung Lin

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Potassium (K) is a known macro nutrient and essential element for plant growth. Single leaching and modified sequential extraction schemes have been developed to estimate the relative phase associations of soil samples. The sequential extraction process is a step in analyzing the partitioning of metals affected by environmental conditions, but it is not a tool for estimation of K bioavailability. While, traditional single leaching method has been used to classify K speciation for a long time, it depend on its availability to the plants and use for potash fertilizer recommendation rate. Clay mineral in soil is a factor for controlling soil fertility. The change of the micro-structure of clay minerals during various environment (i.e. swelling or shrinking) is characterized using Transmission X-Ray Microscopy (TXM). The objective of this study are to 1) compare the distribution of K speciation between single leaching and sequential extraction process 2) determined clay particle flocculation structure before/after suspension with K+ using TXM. Four tropical soil samples: farming without K fertilizer (10 years), long term applied K fertilizer (10 years; 168-240 kg K2O ha-1 year-1), red soil (450-500 kg K2O ha-1 year-1) and forest soil were selected. The results showed that the amount of K speciation by single leaching method were high in mineral K, HNO3 K, Non-exchangeable K, NH4OAc K, exchangeable K and water soluble K respectively. Sequential extraction process indicated that most K speciations in soil were associated with residual, organic matter, Fe or Mn oxide and exchangeable fractions and K associate fraction with carbonate was not detected in tropical soil samples. In farming long term applied K fertilizer and red soil were higher exchangeable K than farming long term without K fertilizer and forest soil. The results indicated that one way to increase the available K (water soluble K and exchangeable K) should apply K fertilizer and organic fertilizer for providing available K. The two-dimension of TXM image of clay particles suspension with K+ shows that the aggregation structure of clay mineral closed-void cellular networks. The porous cellular structure of soil aggregates in 1 M KCl solution had large and very larger empty voids than in 0.025 M KCl and deionized water respectively. TXM nanotomography is a new technique can be useful in the field as a tool for better understanding of clay mineral micro-structure.

Keywords: potassium, sequential extraction process, clay mineral, TXM

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Authors: S. Taghavi Kalajahi, A. Koerdt, T. Lund Skovhus

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Cathodic protection (CP) is an electrochemical method to control and manage corrosion in different industries and environments. CP which is widely used, especially in buried and sub-merged environments, which both environments are susceptible to microbiologically influenced corrosion (MIC). Most of the standards recommend performing CP using -800 mV, however, if MIC threats are high or sulfate reducing bacteria (SRB) is present, the recommendation is to use more negative potentials for adequate protection of the metal. Due to the lack of knowledge and research on the effectiveness of CP on MIC, to the author’s best knowledge, there is no information about what MIC threat is and how much more negative potentials should be used enabling adequate protection and not overprotection (due to hydrogen embrittlement risk). Recently, the development and cheaper price of molecular microbial methods (MMMs) open the door for more effective investigations on the corrosion in the presence of microorganisms, along with other electrochemical methods and surface analysis. In this work, using MMMs, the gene expression of SRB biofilm under different potentials of CP will be investigated. The specific genes, such as pH buffering, metal oxidizing, etc., will be compared at different potentials, enabling to determine the precise potential that protect the metal effectively from SRB. This work is the initial step to be able to standardize the recommended potential under MIC condition, resulting better protection for the infrastructures.

Keywords: cathodic protection, microbiologically influenced corrosion, molecular microbial methods, sulfate reducing bacteria

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Authors: Dita Mayasari, Zahrina Mardina, Riki Siswanto, Agresta Ifada, Ova Oktavina, Prihartini Widiyanti

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Heart failure is a serious major health problem with high number of mortality per year. Bypass is one of the solutions that has often been taken. Natural vascular graft (xenograft) as the substitute in bypass is inconvenient due to ethic problems and the risk of infection transmission caused by the usage of another species transgenic vascular. Nowadays, synthetic materials have been fabricated from polymers. The aim of this research is to make a synthetic vascular graft with great physical strength, high biocompatibility, and good affordability. The method of this research was mixing PLGA and collagen by magnetic stirrer. This composite were shaped by spinneret with water as coagulant. Then it was coated by chitosan with 3 variations of weight (1 gram, 2 grams, and 3 grams) to increase hemo and cytocompatibility, proliferation, and cell attachment in order for the vascular graft candidates to be more biocompatible. Mechanical strength for each variation was 5,306 MPa (chitosan 1 gram), 3,433 MPa (chitosan 2 grams) and 3,745 MPa (chitosan 3 grams). All the tensile values were higher than human vascular tensile strength. Toxicity test showed that the living cells in all variations were more than 60% in number, thus the vascular graft is not toxic.

Keywords: chitosan, collagen, PLGA, spinneret

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Authors: Sireetorn Kuharat, Anwar Beg

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In this study, multi-mode heat transfer characteristics of spacecraft solar collectors are investigated computationally. Two-dimensional steady-state incompressible laminar Newtonian viscous convection-radiative heat transfer in a rectangular solar collector geometry. The ANSYS FLUENT finite volume code (version 17.2) is employed to simulate the thermo-fluid characteristics. Several radiative transfer models are employed which are available in the ANSYS workbench, including the classical Rosseland flux model and the more elegant P1 flux model. Mesh-independence tests are conducted. Validation of the simulations is conducted with a computational Harlow-Welch MAC (Marker and Cell) finite difference method and excellent correlation. The influence of aspect ratio, Prandtl number (Pr), Rayleigh number (Ra) and radiative flux model on temperature, isotherms, velocity, the pressure is evaluated and visualized in color plots. Additionally, the local convective heat flux is computed and solutions are compared with the MAC solver for various buoyancy effects (e.g. Ra = 10,000,000) achieving excellent agreement. The P1 model is shown to better predict the actual influence of solar radiative flux on thermal fluid behavior compared with the limited Rosseland model. With increasing Rayleigh numbers the hot zone emanating from the base of the collector is found to penetrate deeper into the collector and rises symmetrically dividing into two vortex regions with very high buoyancy effect (Ra >100,000). With increasing Prandtl number (three gas cases are examined respectively hydrogen gas mixture, air and ammonia gas) there is also a progressive incursion of the hot zone at the solar collector base higher into the solar collector space and simultaneously a greater asymmetric behavior of the dual isothermal zones. With increasing aspect ratio (wider base relative to the height of the solar collector geometry) there is a greater thermal convection pattern around the whole geometry, higher temperatures and the elimination of the cold upper zone associated with lower aspect ratio.

Keywords: thermal convection, radiative heat transfer, solar collector, Rayleigh number

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Authors: Hiba Dakroub, Danilo Russo, Luca Cistrone, Francesco Serra, Giovanna Fusco, Esterina De Carlo, Maria Grazia Amoroso

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The question of the origin of SARS-CoV-2 and the cycle of transmission between humans and animals is still unanswered. One serious concern associated with the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is that the virus might spill back from humans to wildlife, which would render some animal species reservoirs of the human virus. The aim of the present study is to monitor the potential risk of SARS-CoV-2 reverse infection from humans to bats, by performing bat surveillance from different sites in Central-Southern Italy. We collected 240 droppings or saliva from 129 bats and tested them using specific and general primers of SARS-COV-2 and coronaviruses respectively. All samples, including 127 nasal swabs and 113 fecal droppings resulted negative for SARS-COV-2, and these results were confirmed by testing the samples with the Droplet Digital PCR. Also, an end-point RT-PCR was performed and no sample showed specific bands. The absence of SARS-CoV-2 in the bats we surveyed is a first step towards a better understanding of reverse transmission to bats of this virus. We hope our first contribution will encourage the establishment of systematic surveillance of wildlife, and specifically bats, to help prevent reverse zoonotic episodes that would jeopardize human health as well as biodiversity conservation and management.

Keywords: coronaviruses, bats, zoonotic viruses, spillback, SARS-CoV-2

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Authors: Priya Kedia, Kiranmoy Das

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There is a rich literature on variable selection in regression setting. However, most of these methods assume normality for the response variable under consideration for implementing the methodology and establishing the statistical properties of the estimates. In many real applications, the distribution for the response variable may be non-Gaussian, and one might be interested in finding the best subset of covariates at some predetermined quantile level. We develop dynamic Bayesian approach for variable selection in quantile regression framework. We use a zero-inflated mixture prior for the regression coefficients, and consider the asymmetric Laplace distribution for the response variable for modeling different quantiles of its distribution. An efficient Gibbs sampler is developed for our computation. Our proposed approach is assessed through extensive simulation studies, and real application of the proposed approach is also illustrated. We consider the data from health and retirement study conducted by the University of Michigan, and select the important predictors when the outcome of interest is out-of-pocket medical cost, which is considered as an important measure for financial risk. Our analysis finds important predictors at different quantiles of the outcome, and thus enhance our understanding on the effects of different predictors on the out-of-pocket medical cost.

Keywords: variable selection, quantile regression, Gibbs sampler, asymmetric Laplace distribution

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Authors: Nadia Elouaer

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Tax revenue is the main state resource and one of the important variables in tax policy. Nevertheless, this resource is continually decreasing, so it is important to focus on the reasons for this decline. Several studies show that the taxpayer is reluctant to pay taxes, especially in countries at risk or in countries in transition, including Tunisia. This study focuses on the tax evasion behavior of a Tunisian taxpayer under the influence of his political beliefs, as well as the influence of different tax compliance variables. Using a questionnaire, a sample of 500 Tunisian taxpayers is used to examine the relationship between political beliefs and taxpayer affiliations and tax compliance variables, as well as the study of the causal link between political beliefs and fraudulent behavior. The data were examined using correlation, factor, and regression analysis and found a positive and statistically significant relationship between the different tax compliance variables and the tax evasion behavior. There is also a positive and statistically significant relationship between tax evasion and political beliefs and affiliations. The study of the relationship between political beliefs and compliance variables shows that they are closely related. The conclusion is to admit that tax evasion and political beliefs are closely linked, and the government should update its tax policy and modernize its administration in order to strengthen the credibility and disclosure of information in order to restore a relationship of trust between public authorities and the taxpayer.

Keywords: fiscal policy, political beliefs, tax evasion, taxpayer behavior

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Authors: Hien T. T. Ho, Tsunemi Watanabe

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The regulatory and market pressures on the restriction of nonylphenol and its ethoxylates in textile articles have confronted the textile manufacturers, particularly those in developing countries. This study aimed to examine the tentative behavior of the textile manufacturers in Vietnam from the perspectives of attitude and the perceptions of technical and organizational adaptabilities, risks, benefits, and barriers. Personal interviews were conducted with five technical specialists from four textile firms and one chemical supplier. The environmental regulatory and market situations regarding the chemical use in Vietnam were also described. The findings revealed two main opposing trends of chemical substitution depending on the market orientation of firms that governed the patterns of risk and benefit perception. The indirect influence of perceived adaptabilities on firm tentative behavior through perceived risks was elucidated, which initiated a conceptual model of firm’s behavior combining the organizational-based and the rational-based relationships. The intermediary role of non-governmental textile and garment industrial/ trade associations is highlighted to strengthen private firm’s informative capacity.

Keywords: firm behavior, institutional analysis, organizational adaptation, technical adaptation

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Authors: Hesham Osman

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The challenges facing aging urban infrastructure systems require a more holistic and comprehensive approach to their management. The large number of urban infrastructure renewal activities occurring in cities throughout the world leads to social, economic and environmental impacts on the communities in its vicinity. As such, a coordinated effort is required to streamline these activities. This paper presents a framework to enable temporal (time-based) coordination of water, sewer and road intervention activities. Intervention activities include routine maintenance, renewal, and replacement of physical assets. The coordination framework considers 1) Life-cycle costs, 2) Infrastructure level-of-service, and 3) Risk exposure to system operators. The model enables infrastructure asset managers to trade-off options of delaying versus bringing forward intervention activities of one system in order to be executed in conjunction with another co-located system in the right-of-way. The framework relies on a combination of meta-heuristics and goal-based optimization. In order to demonstrate the applicability of the framework, a case study for a major infrastructure corridor in Cairo, Egypt is taken as an example. Results show that the framework can be scaled-up to include other infrastructure systems located in the right-of-way like electricity, gas and telecom, provided that information can be shared among these entities.

Keywords: infrastructure, rehabilitation, construction, optimization

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Authors: Emna Benmohamed, Hela Ltifi, Mounir Ben Ayed

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Bayesian Network (BN) is one of the most efficient classification methods. It is widely used in several fields (i.e., medical diagnostics, risk analysis, bioinformatics research). The BN is defined as a probabilistic graphical model that represents a formalism for reasoning under uncertainty. This classification method has a high-performance rate in the extraction of new knowledge from data. The construction of this model consists of two phases for structure learning and parameter learning. For solving this problem, the K2 algorithm is one of the representative data-driven algorithms, which is based on score and search approach. In addition, the integration of the expert's knowledge in the structure learning process allows the obtainment of the highest accuracy. In this paper, we propose a hybrid approach combining the improvement of the K2 algorithm called K2 algorithm for Parents and Children search (K2PC) and the expert-driven method for learning the structure of BN. The evaluation of the experimental results, using the well-known benchmarks, proves that our K2PC algorithm has better performance in terms of correct structure detection. The real application of our model shows its efficiency in the analysis of the phosphate laundry effluents' impact on the watershed in the Gafsa area (southwestern Tunisia).

Keywords: Bayesian network, classification, expert knowledge, structure learning, surface water analysis

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Authors: Fahad Al Beyahi, Justin Thomas, Md Mamunur Rashid

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Various definitions of digital well-being have emerged in recent years, most of which center on the impacts -beneficial and detrimental- of digital technology on health and well-being (psychological, social, and financial). Other definitions go further, emphasizing the attainment of balance, viewing digital well-being as wholly subjective, the individual’s perception of optimal balance between the benefits and ills associated with online connectivity. Based on this broad conceptualization of digital well-being, we undertook a global survey measuring various dimensions of this emerging construct. The survey was administered across 35 nations and 7 world regions, with 1000 participants within each territory (N= 35000). Along with attitudinal, behavioral, and sociodemographic variables, the survey included measures of depression, anxiety, problematic social media use, gaming disorder, and other relevant metrics. Coupled with nation-level policy audits, these data were used to create a multinational (global) digital well-being index. Nations are ranked based on various dimensions of digital well-being, and predictive models are used to identify resilience and risk factors for problem technology use. In this paper, we will discuss key findings from the survey and the index. This work can inform public policy and shape our responses to the emerging implications of lives increasingly lived online and interconnected with digital technology.

Keywords: technology, health, behavioral addiction, digital wellbeing

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Authors: Ilhan Keskin, Hasan Bulent Kantarci

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In this study, one of the tools of Islamic financing known as “Sukuk” a non-interest bearing investment which has started to be implemented in Turkey and the world as a whole is discussed. In order to increase the vitality and efficiency of the economy, by taking lessons from the recent economic crisis new developments in the banking and investment sector are being expanded. The purpose of all investors is to obtain more revenue through the use of capital. The inability of traditional investment tools to meet the expectations of investors and the interest based financial system where one investor benefits at the expense of another there has been the need for a different, reliable and non-interest bearing financial market that is consistent with the Islamic rule. As a result an alternative and more reliable interest free financing tool “Sukuk” rental certificates covering people who are sensitive to Islamic rules, appeal to all segments, hidden remaining capital that contributes to the economy, reduce disparities in income distribution, common risk sharing system of profit and loss sharing has emerged. Today, for the structural countries by examining the state of the world market economy the applicability, enactment and future issues associated with this attractive kind of Islamic finance namely the “Sukuk” market has been explained.

Keywords: Islamic finance, islamic markets, non-interest bearing, rental certificates

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Authors: Nyasha Agnes Gurira, Petronella Katekwe

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Traditional management systems (TMS) are a vital source of knowledge for conserving cultural and natural heritage. TMS’s are renowned for their ability to preserve both tangible and intangible manifestations of heritage. They are a construct of the intricate relationship that exists between heritage and host communities, where communities are recognized as owners of heritage and so, set up management mechanisms to ensure its adequate conservation. Multiple heritage condition surveys were conducted to assess the effectiveness of using TMS in the conservation of both natural and cultural heritage. Surveys were done at Nharira Hills, Mahwemasimike, Dzimbahwe, Manjowe Rock art sites and Norumedzo forest which are heritage places in Zimbabwe. It assessed the state of conservation of the five case studies and assessed the role that host communities play in the management of these heritage places. It was revealed that TMS’s are effective in the conservation of natural heritage, however in relation to heritage forms with cultural manifestations, there are major disparities. These range from differences in appreciation and perception of value within communities leading to vandalism, over emphasis in the conservation of the intangible element as opposed to the tangible. This leaves the tangible element at risk. Despite these issues, TMS are a reliable knowledge base which enables more holistic conservation approaches for cultural and natural heritage.

Keywords: communities, cultural intangible, tangible heritage, traditional management systems, natural

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Authors: Sungwoo Park

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The paper attempts to investigate the correlation between climate change and migration that has caused violent disputes in some regions of the world. Recently, NGOs and educational institutions have proposed claims that migratory patterns and violent uprisings are intertwined with climate change. Thus, the paper is primarily concerned with collecting evidences provided from scholars, validating this significant connection between climate change and migration, and evaluating and suggesting current and future research approaches respectively to enhance the acknowledgment and protection of environmental refugees. In order to examine the linkage of environmental migration, primary sources, such as political speeches, and secondary sources like theses from environmental policy analysts, books, and reports are used. More specifically, the investigation focuses on an civil war in Syria to draw a connection between environmental migration and violent dispute that threatens the global security. The examination undertaken specifically analyzes examples where forced migration occurred due to climate change. In Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Kiribati, residents have been at risk of fleeing their countries because of abnormal climate patterns, such as the rise of sea level or an excessive heat stress. As the brutal uprising in Syria has proven that climate change can pose a significant threat to global security, correlation between climate change and migration is surely worth delving into.

Keywords: climate change, climate migration, global security, refugee crisis

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Authors: Jayati Das

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Kolkata, one of the fastest-growing metropolises in India, has been suffering from air pollution for many decades. Mismanagement of government and an increase in automobiles have been fuelling this problem. The study aims to portray the quality of air along with the influence of traffic flow and vehicular growth and the effects on human health. It further shows the correlation between the emission of pollution during weekdays and weekends with the help of a scatter diagram and trend line. An assessment of Kolkata air quality is done where the listed pollutants’ (RPM, SPM, NO2, and SO2) annual average concentrations are classified into four different categories. Our observed association between childhood Acute Respiratory disorder and early life exposure to traffic-related air pollutants is biologically plausible. The period of in utero and the first year of life is critical in the development of the immune and respiratory systems and potentially harmful effects of toxic pollutants during this period might result in the long-lasting impaired capacity to fight infections and increased risk of allergic manifestations. Up-to-date knowledge about the seasonal and spatial variation of asthma and studying the air quality of the area is done through Geographical Information System (GIS). Steps are taken by the government to control air pollution by alternative public transport like the metro and compulsory certification of period-driven vehicles which test for Carbon mono oxide.

Keywords: air pollution, asthma, GIS, hotspots, governance

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Authors: Mohammed Bakhit Kashoob, Mohammed Salim Al-Maashani, Ahmed Abdullah Al-Marhoon

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The use of Geographic Information System (GIS) tools in the analysis of traffic crash data can help to identify locations or hotspots with high instances or risk of traffic crashes. The identification of traffic crash hotspots can effectively improve road safety measures. Mapping of road traffic crash hotspots can help the concerned authorities to give priority and take targeted measures and improvements to the road structure at these locations to reduce traffic crashes and fatalities. In Oman, there are countless rural roads that have more risks for traveling vehicles compared to urban roads. The likelihood of traffic crashes as well as fatality rate may increase with the presence of risks that are associated with the rural type of community. In this paper, the traffic crash hotspots on rural roads in Oman are specified using spatial analysis methods in GIS and traffic crash data. These hotspots are ranked based on the frequency of traffic crash occurrence (i.e., number of traffic crashes) and the rate of fatalities. The result of this study presents a map visualization of locations on rural roads with high traffic crashes and high fatalities rates.

Keywords: road safety, rural roads, traffic crash, GIS tools

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Authors: H. Merhni, A. Sbiti, I. Ratbi, A. Sefiani

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The proximal spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is a group of neuromuscular disorders characterized by progressive muscle weakness due to the degeneration and loss of anterior motor neurons of the spinal cord. Depending on the age of onset of symptoms and their evolution, four types of SMA, varying in severity, result in a mutations of the SMN gene (survival of Motor neuron). We have analyzed the DNA of 295 patients referred to our genetic counseling; since January 1996 until October 2014; for suspected SMA. The homozygous deletion of exon 7 of the SMN gene was found in 133 patients; of which, 40.6% were born to consanguineous parents. In countries like Morocco, where the frequency of heterozygotes for SMA is high, genetic testing should be offered as first-line and, after careful clinical assessment, especially in newborns and infants with congenital hypotonia unexplained and prognosis compromise. The molecular diagnosis of SMA allows a quick and certainly diagnosis, provide adequate genetic counseling for families at risk and suggest, for couples who want prenatal diagnosis. The analysis of the SMN gene is a perfect example of genetic testing with an excellent cost/benefit ratio that can be of great interest in public health, especially in low-income countries. We emphasize in this work for the benefit of the generalization of molecular diagnosis of SMA by the technique of PCR-enzymatic digestion in other centers in Morocco.

Keywords: Exon7, PCR-digestion, SMA, SMN gene

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Authors: Mao Ju

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The system of general counsel (GC) is an important governance structure designed for the construction of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) under the rule of law. This article is based on the setting of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and takes the efficiency of M&As to examine the implementation effect of the system of GC for SOEs. Research has found that: (1) companies implementing the system of GC for SOEs have higher efficiency in M&As, manifested in better operational and market performance, and this effect depends on the professional ability and power of the GC. This indicates that the GC of SOEs has played a positive role in the decision-making process of M&As, which helps to improve the efficiency of M&As. (2) The impact of the GC of SOEs on the efficiency of M&As is heterogeneous, and this positive effect is mainly reflected in local and commercial SOEs. (3) The path of this impact is that the GC of SOEs can help reduce ineffective M&As in advance, enhance the ability to integrate M&As after the fact and reduce the risk of goodwill impairment and bankruptcy. This article reveals the impact of the construction of SOEs under the rule of law with the system of GC as the core of M&As activities, providing intuitive evidence for the implementation effect of the GC of SOEs. The research conclusion has important practical guiding value for comprehensively deepening the construction of the rule of SOEs under the rule of law and writing a good chapter on the Chinese path to modernization of SOEs.

Keywords: the system of general counsel, merger and acquisition efficiency, state-owned enterprises, mergers and acquisitions

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Authors: Jay L. Fu

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Patients with Alzheimer's disease progressively lose their memory and thinking skills and, eventually, the ability to carry out simple daily tasks. The disease is irreversible, but early detection and treatment can slow down the disease progression. In this research, publicly available MRI data and demographic data from 373 MRI imaging sessions were utilized to build models to predict dementia. Various machine learning models, including logistic regression, k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine, random forest, and neural network, were developed. Data were divided into training and testing sets, where training sets were used to build the predictive model, and testing sets were used to assess the accuracy of prediction. Key risk factors were identified, and various models were compared to come forward with the best prediction model. Among these models, the random forest model appeared to be the best model with an accuracy of 90.34%. MMSE, nWBV, and gender were the three most important contributing factors to the detection of Alzheimer’s. Among all the models used, the percent in which at least 4 of the 5 models shared the same diagnosis for a testing input was 90.42%. These machine learning models allow early detection of Alzheimer’s with good accuracy, which ultimately leads to early treatment of these patients.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, clinical diagnosis, magnetic resonance imaging, machine learning prediction

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Authors: Mohammad Lemar Zalmai, Osman Hurol Turkakin, Cemil Akcay, Ekrem Manisali

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Most of the construction projects are exposed to time and cost overruns due to various factors and this is a major problem. As a solution to this, the Earned Value Management (EVM) method is considered. EVM is a powerful and well-known method used in monitoring and controlling the project. EVM is a technique that project managers use to track the performance of their project against project baselines. EVM gives an early indication that either project is delayed or not, and the project is either over budget or under budget at any particular day by tracking it. Thus, it helps to improve the management control system of a construction project, to detect and control the problems in potential risk areas and to suggest the importance and purpose of monitoring the construction work. This paper explains the main parameters of the EVM system involved in the calculation of time and cost for construction projects. In this study, the project management software Primavera P6 is used to deals with the project monitoring process of a seven-storeyed (G+6) faculty building whose construction is in progress at Istanbul, Turkey. A comparison between the planned progress of construction activities and actual progress is performed, and the analysis results are interpreted. This case study justifies the benefits of using EVM for project cash flow analysis and forecasting.

Keywords: earned value management (EVM), construction cost management, construction planning, primavera P6, project management, project scheduling

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Authors: Shaimaa Eltanani, Thangal Yumnamcha, Ahmed S. Ibrahim

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Purpose: Mitochondria dysfunction is central to breaking the barrier integrity of retinal endothelial cells (RECs) in various blinding eye diseases such as diabetic retinopathy and retinopathy of prematurity. Therefore, we aimed to dissect the role of different mitochondrial components, specifically, those of oxidative phosphorylation (OxPhos), in maintaining the barrier function of RECs. Methods: Electric cell-substrate impedance sensing (ECIS) technology was used to assess in real-time the role of different mitochondrial components in the total impedance (Z) of human RECs (HRECs) and its components; the capacitance (C) and the total resistance (R). HRECs were treated with specific mitochondrial inhibitors that target different steps in OxPhos: Rotenone for complex I; Oligomycin for ATP synthase; and FCCP for uncoupling OxPhos. Furthermore, data were modeled to investigate the effects of these inhibitors on the three parameters that govern the total resistance of cells: cell-cell interactions (Rb), cell-matrix interactions (α), and cell membrane permeability (Cm). Results: Rotenone (1 µM) produced the greatest reduction in the Z, followed by FCCP (1 µM), whereas no reduction in the Z was observed after the treatment with Oligomycin (1 µM). Following this further, we deconvoluted the effect of these inhibitors on Rb, α, and Cm. Firstly, rotenone (1 µM) completely abolished the resistance contribution of Rb, as the Rb became zero immediately after the treatment. Secondly, FCCP (1 µM) eliminated the resistance contribution of Rb only after 2.5 hours and increased Cm without considerable effect on α. Lastly, Oligomycin had the lowest impact among these inhibitors on Rb, which became similar to the control group at the end of the experiment without noticeable effects on Cm or α. Conclusion: These results demonstrate differential roles for complex I, complex V, and coupling of OxPhos in maintaining the barrier functionality of HRECs, in which complex I being the most important component in regulating the barrier functionality and the spreading behavior of HRECs. Such differences can be used in investigating gene expression as well as for screening selective agents that improve the functionality of complex I to be used in the therapeutic approach for treating REC-related retinal diseases.

Keywords: human retinal endothelial cells (hrecs), rotenone, oligomycin, fccp, oxidative phosphorylation, oxphos, capacitance, impedance, ecis modeling, rb resistance, α resistance, and barrier integrity

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Authors: Muhamad Ammar Bin Mohd Asri, Muhammad Hamizan Bin Yusof, Muhammad Haziq Bin Abdul Khalil, Esman Hanief Bin Khairul Anuar, Muhammad Fikri Bin Ishak, Amril Azim Bin Mohd Norrahim, Muhammad Danial Fakhri Bin Fakhruddin, Muhammad Khairul Nizam in Hosnodin, Muhammad Ezzat Hariz Bin Norhisam

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Ergonomics is the science of creating and arranging workplaces, products, and systems to increase human performance, comfort, and safety. This study researched ergonomics as a solution for preventing workplace injuries, specifically musculoskeletal disorders, among employers and employees. The method will be used in this project is a literature review which means conducting a study about ergonomics with peer-reviewed journal articles and books. It focuses on employees and employers who are in one company on other departments under the protection of Occupational Safety and Health (OSHA). These solutions include ergonomic assessments, workplace design improvements, effective training and education, and the use of ergonomic tools and equipment. Employers can build workplaces that are safer and more productive by putting these solutions in place, and employees can work comfortably and prevent accidents from bad ergonomics. Overall, the paper highlights how crucial it is to take injury prevention measures and consider ergonomics at work.

Keywords: occupational safety and health, musculoskeletal disorders, ergonomic, ergonomic risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 227

Authors: Soofiyan Atar, Adil Shaikh, Sahil Rajpurkar, Pragnesh Bhalala, Aniket Desai, Irfan Siddavatam

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Deep reinforcement learning (deep RL) algorithms leverage the symbolic power of complex controllers by automating it by mapping sensory inputs to low-level actions. Deep RL eliminates the complex robot dynamics with minimal engineering. Deep RL provides high-risk involvement by directly implementing it in real-world scenarios and also high sensitivity towards hyperparameters. Tuning of hyperparameters on a pneumatic quadruped robot becomes very expensive through trial-and-error learning. This paper presents an automated learning control for a pneumatic quadruped robot using sample efficient deep Q learning, enabling minimal tuning and very few trials to learn the neural network. Long training hours may degrade the pneumatic cylinder due to jerk actions originated through stochastic weights. We applied this method to the pneumatic quadruped robot, which resulted in a hopping gait. In our process, we eliminated the use of a simulator and acquired a stable gait. This approach evolves so that the resultant gait matures more sturdy towards any stochastic changes in the environment. We further show that our algorithm performed very well as compared to programmed gait using robot dynamics.

Keywords: model-based reinforcement learning, gait stability, supervised learning, pneumatic quadruped

Procedia PDF Downloads 319

Authors: Urmi Khatri

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Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) draws a direct relationship between the risk and the expected rate of return. There was a criticism on the beta and the assumptions of CAPM, as they are not applicable in the real world. Fama French Three Factor Model and Fama French Five Factor Model have given different factors, which have an impact on the return of any asset like size, value, investment and profitability. This study proposes to see Capital Asset pricing Model through the lenses of the quality aspect. In the study, the six factors are studied. The Fama French Five Factor Model and addition of the quality dimension are studied. Here, Graham’s seven quality and quantity criteria are measured to determine the score of the sample firms. Thus, this study tries to check the model fit. The beta coefficient of the quality dimension and the R square value is seen to determine validity of the proposed model. The sample is drawn from the firms listed on Indian Stock Exchange (BSE). For the study, only nonfinancial firms are been selected. The time period of the study is from January 1999 to December 2019. Hence, the primary objective of the study is to check how robust the model becomes after giving the quality dimension to the capital asset pricing model in addition to the size, value, profitability and investment.

Keywords: asset pricing model, CAPM, Graham’s score, G-score, multifactor model, quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 164

Authors: Mete Ulaş Aksoy

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In contemporary politics, the state of emergency has become a permanent and salient feature of politics. This study aims to clarify the anthropological and ontological dimensions of the permanent state of emergency. It pays special attention to the structural relation between the exception and play. Focusing on the play in the context of emergency and exception enables the recognition of the difference and sometimes the discrepancy between the exception and emergency, which has passed into oblivion because of the frequency and normalization of emergency situations. This study coins the term “ludic exception” in order to highlight the difference between the exceptions in which exuberance and paroxysm rule over the socio-political life and the permanent emergency that protects the authority with a sort of extra-legality. The main thesis of the study is that the ludic elements such as risk, conspicuous consumption, sacrificial gestures, agonism, etc. circumscribe the exceptional moments temporarily, preventing them from being routine and normal. The study also emphasizes the decline of ludic elements in modernity as the main factor in the transformation of the exceptions into permanent emergency situations. In the introduction, the relationship between play and exception is taken into consideration. In the second part, the study elucidates the concept of ludic exceptions and dwells on the anthropological examples of the ludic exceptions. In the last part, the decline of ludic elements in modernity is addressed as the main factor for the permanent emergency.

Keywords: emergency, exception, ludic exception, play, sovereignty

Procedia PDF Downloads 94