Search results for: collision probability

Authors: Zahra Mila Elmi, Mahsa Khanekheshi

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Almost half of the population and potential manpower in the country and rural areas are women. Manpower especially educated people, plays an important role in the production and economic growth. Also, the potential of rural areas to create employment should not be overlooked. In this research, the effects of socio-economic and demographic factors on women's economic participation in rural areas of Iran's provinces will be studied. Therefore, this study was performed by using the results of the rural households income and expenditure surveys -has been taken in 2016- in the framework of pseudo panel data. This study used the logit model and the maximum likelihood method to study the rural women's participation, with 28,265 observations. Results show the inverted U-shaped relationship between age and the probability of female participation; In other words, young women are more likely to participate in labor markets more than the other groups. Divorced and single woman has more chance of participation in comparison with who was being married. With increasing the divorce rate and singleness in Iran, economic policymakers must provide appropriate solutions for this challenge in the coming years. On the base of the results, being a student and the presence of an infant under the age of 6 in the household has a negative effect on the possibility of women's participation in the labor market. The women's education level has a U-shaped relationship with their participation rate. Illiteracy and high education have a strong positive effect on the economic participation of rural women. This shows the dual labor market for women in Iran. Illiterate women are attracted to service jobs, and educated woman are more attracted to education and health jobs. Increasing household income has a small but positive and significant effect on the probability of rural female participation. In the overlook, due to the frequency of the women population in the age group of 25 to 35 years, and more willingness of women in the age 35 to 44 years to participate in the labor market, and studying ofa significant portion of the rural women, the increase of rural female participation is expected in the years ahead. Thus, it is expected policy maker to create new job opportunities for the employment of educated women and take the necessary plan to improve the current situation for women.

Keywords: female participation rate, rural area, provincial data, pseudo-panel data method

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Authors: André Python

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To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, exemplified by the recent deadly attacks in January 2015 in Paris and the ongoing massacres perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In response to this threat, states deploy various counterterrorism measures, the cost of which could be reduced through effective preventive measures. In order to increase the efficiency of preventive measures, policy-makers may benefit from accurate predictive models that are able to capture the complex spatial dynamics of terrorism occurring at a local scale. Despite empirical research carried out at country-level that has confirmed theories explaining the diffusion processes of terrorism across space and time, scholars have failed to assess diffusion’s theories on a local scale. Moreover, since scholars have not made the most of recent statistical modelling approaches, they have been unable to build up predictive models accurate in both space and time. In an effort to address these shortcomings, this research suggests a novel approach to systematically assess the theories of terrorism’s diffusion on a local scale and provide a predictive model of the local spatial dynamics of terrorism worldwide. With a focus on the lethal terrorist events that occurred after 9/11, this paper addresses the following question: why and how does lethal terrorism diffuse in space and time? Based on geolocalised data on worldwide terrorist attacks and covariates gathered from 2002 to 2013, a binomial spatio-temporal point process is used to model the probability of terrorist attacks on a sphere (the world), the surface of which is discretised in the form of Delaunay triangles and refined in areas of specific interest. Within a Bayesian framework, the model is fitted through an integrated nested Laplace approximation - a recent fitting approach that computes fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals. Hence, for each location in the world, the model provides a probability of encountering a lethal terrorist attack and measures of volatility, which inform on the model’s predictability. Diffusion processes are visualised through interactive maps that highlight space-time variations in the probability and volatility of encountering a lethal attack from 2002 to 2013. Based on the previous twelve years of observation, the location and lethality of terrorist events in 2014 are statistically accurately predicted. Throughout the global scope of this research, local diffusion processes such as escalation and relocation are systematically examined: the former process describes an expansion from high concentration areas of lethal terrorist events (hotspots) to neighbouring areas, while the latter is characterised by changes in the location of hotspots. By controlling for the effect of geographical, economical and demographic variables, the results of the model suggest that the diffusion processes of lethal terrorism are jointly driven by contagious and non-contagious factors that operate on a local scale – as predicted by theories of diffusion. Moreover, by providing a quantitative measure of predictability, the model prevents policy-makers from making decisions based on highly uncertain predictions. Ultimately, this research may provide important complementary tools to enhance the efficiency of policies that aim to prevent and combat terrorism.

Keywords: diffusion process, terrorism, spatial dynamics, spatio-temporal modeling

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Authors: Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi, Farhad Asadi, Aref Ghafouri

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Performance of different filtering approaches depends on modeling of dynamical system and algorithm structure. For modeling and smoothing the data the evaluation of posterior distribution in different filtering approach should be chosen carefully. In this paper different filtering approaches like filter KALMAN, EKF, UKF, EKS and smoother RTS is simulated in some trajectory tracking of path and accuracy and limitation of these approaches are explained. Then probability of model with different filters is compered and finally the effect of the noise variance to estimation is described with simulations results.

Keywords: Gaussian approximation, Kalman smoother, parameter estimation, noise variance

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Authors: Fatemeh Deldarabdolmaleki, Mohamad Fakri Zaky Bin Ja'afar

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This paper presents fenestration analysis to study the balance between utilizing daylight and eliminating the disturbing parameters in a private office room with interior venetian blinds taking into account different slat angles. Mean luminance of the scene and window, luminance ratio of the workplane and window, work plane illumination and daylight glare probability(DGP) were calculated as a function of venetian blind design properties. Recently developed software, analyzing High Dynamic Range Images (HDRI captured by CCD camera), such as radiance based evalglare and hdrscope help to investigate luminance-based metrics. A total of Eight-day measurement experiment was conducted to investigate the impact of different venetian blind angles in an office environment under daylight condition in Serdang, Malaysia. Detailed result for the selected case study showed that artificial lighting is necessary during the morning session for Malaysian buildings with southwest windows regardless of the venetian blind’s slat angle. However, in some conditions of afternoon session the workplane illuminance level exceeds the maximum illuminance of 2000 lx such as 10° and 40° slat angles. Generally, a rising trend is discovered toward mean window luminance level during the day. All the conditions have less than 10% of the pixels exceeding 2000 cd/m² before 1:00 P.M. However, 40% of the selected hours have more than 10% of the scene pixels higher than 2000 cd/m² after 1:00 P.M. Surprisingly in no blind condition, there is no extreme case of window/task ratio, However, the extreme cases happen for 20°, 30°, 40° and 50° slat angles. As expected mean window luminance level is higher than 2000 cd/m² after 2:00 P.M for most cases except 60° slat angle condition. Studying the daylight glare probability, there is not any DGP value higher than 0.35 in this experiment, due to the window’s direction, location of the building and studied workplane. Specifically, this paper reviews different blind angle’s response to the suggested metrics by the previous standards, and finally conclusions and knowledge gaps are summarized and suggested next steps for research are provided. Addressing these gaps is critical for the continued progress of the energy efficiency movement.

Keywords: daylighting, office environment, energy simulation, venetian blind

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Authors: Bekir O. Bartin, Kaan Ozbay, Sandeep Mudigonda, Hong Yang

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The use of microscopic traffic simulation in evaluating the operational and safety conditions at toll plazas is demonstrated. Two toll plazas in New Jersey are selected as case studies and were developed and validated in Paramics traffic simulation software. In order to simulate drivers’ lane selection behavior in Paramics, a utility-based lane selection approach is implemented in Paramics Application Programming Interface (API). For each vehicle approaching the toll plaza, a utility value is assigned to each toll lane by taking into account the factors that are likely to impact drivers’ lane selection behavior, such as approach lane, exit lane and queue lengths. The results demonstrate that similar operational conditions, such as lane-by-lane toll plaza traffic volume can be attained using this approach. In addition, assessment of safety at toll plazas is conducted via a surrogate safety measure. In particular, the crash index (CI), an improved surrogate measure of time-to-collision (TTC), which reflects the severity of a crash is used in the simulation analyses. The results indicate that the spatial and temporal frequency of observed crashes can be simulated using the proposed methodology. Further analyses can be conducted to evaluate and compare various different operational decisions and safety measures using microscopic simulation models.

Keywords: microscopic simulation, toll plaza, surrogate safety, application programming interface

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Authors: Cagdas Agirdas

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Background: The Affordable Care Act (ACA) requires non-grandfathered private insurance plans, starting with plan years on or after September 23rd, 2010, to provide certain preventive care services without any cost sharing in the form of deductibles, copayments or co-insurance. This requirement may affect racial and ethnic disparities in preventive care as it provides the largest copay reduction in preventive care. Objectives: We ask whether the ACA’s free preventive care benefits are associated with a reduction in racial and ethnic disparities in the utilization of four preventive services: cholesterol screenings, colonoscopies, mammograms, and pap smears. Methods: We use a data set of over 6,000 individuals from the 2009, 2010, and 2013 Medical Expenditure Panel Surveys (MEPS). We restrict our data set only to individuals who are old enough to be eligible for each preventive service. Our difference-in-differences logistic regression model classifies privately-insured Hispanics, African Americans, and Asians as the treatment groups and 2013 as the after-policy year. Our control group consists of non-Hispanic whites on Medicaid as this program already covered preventive care services for free or at a low cost before the ACA. Results: After controlling for income, education, marital status, preferred interview language, self-reported health status, employment, having a usual source of care, age and gender, we find that the ACA is associated with increases in the probability of the median, privately-insured Hispanic person to get a colonoscopy by 3.6% and a mammogram by 3.1%, compared to a non-Hispanic white person on Medicaid. Similarly, we find that the median, privately-insured African American person’s probability of receiving these two preventive services improved by 2.3% and 2.4% compared to a non-Hispanic white person on Medicaid. We do not find any significant improvements for any racial or ethnic group for cholesterol screenings or pap smears. Furthermore, our results do not indicate any significant changes for Asians compared to non-Hispanic whites in utilizing the four preventive services. These reductions in racial/ethnic disparities are robust to reconfigurations of time periods, previous diagnosis, and residential status. Conclusions: Early effects of the ACA’s provision of free preventive care are significant for Hispanics and African Americans. Further research is needed for the later years as more individuals became aware of these benefits.

Keywords: preventive care, Affordable Care Act, cost sharing, racial disparities

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Authors: Chuanzhi Chen, Wenjing Yu

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Parabolic cylindrical deployable antenna has the characteristics of wide cutting width, strong directivity, high gain, and easy automatic beam scanning. While, due to its large size, high flexibility, and strong coupling, the deployment process of parabolic cylindrical deployable antenna presents such problems as unsynchronized deployment speed, large local deformation and discontinuous switching of deployment state. A large deployable parabolic cylindrical antenna is taken as the research object, and the problem of unfolding process instability of cylindrical antenna is studied in the paper, which is caused by multiple factors such as multiple closed loops, elastic deformation, motion friction, and gap collision. Firstly, the multi-flexible system dynamics model of large-scale parabolic cylindrical antenna is established to study the influence of friction and elastic deformation on the stability of large multi-closed loop antenna. Secondly, the evaluation method of antenna expansion stability is studied, and the quantitative index of antenna configuration design is proposed to provide a theoretical basis for improving the overall performance of the antenna. Finally, through simulation analysis and experiment, the development dynamics and stability of large-scale parabolic cylindrical antennas are verified by in-depth analysis, and the principles for improving the stability of antenna deployment are summarized.

Keywords: multibody dynamics, expandable parabolic cylindrical antenna, stability, flexible deformation

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Authors: Temesgen Sidamo, Prakruti S. Rao, Eleni Akllilu, Workineh Shibeshi, Yumi Park, Yong-Soon Cho, Jae-Gook Shin, Scott K. Heysell, Stellah G. Mpagama, Ephrem Engidawork

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The fluoroquinolones (FQs) are used off-label for the treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), and for evaluation in shortening the duration of drug-susceptible TB in recently prioritized regimens. Within the class, levofloxacin (LFX) and moxifloxacin (MXF) play a substantial role in ensuring success in treatment outcomes. However, sub-therapeutic plasma concentrations of either LFX or MXF may drive unfavorable treatment outcomes. To the best of our knowledge, the pharmacokinetics of LFX and MXF in Ethiopian patients with MDR-TB have not yet been investigated. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop a population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) model of levofloxacin (LFX) and moxifloxacin (MXF) and assess the percent probability of target attainment (PTA) as defined by the ratio of the area under the plasma concentration-time curve over 24-h (AUC0-24) and the in vitro minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) (AUC0-24/MIC) in Ethiopian MDR-TB patients. Steady-state plasma was collected from 39 MDR-TB patients enrolled in the programmatic treatment course and the drug concentrations were determined using optimized liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. In addition, the in vitro MIC of the patients' pretreatment clinical isolates was determined. PopPK and simulations were run at various doses, and PK parameters were estimated. The effect of covariates on the PK parameters and the PTA for maximum mycobacterial kill and resistance prevention was also investigated. LFX and MXF both fit in a one-compartment model with adjustments. The apparent volume of distribution (V) and clearance (CL) of LFX were influenced by serum creatinine (Scr), whereas the absorption constant (Ka) and V of MXF were influenced by Scr and BMI, respectively. The PTA for LFX maximal mycobacterial kill at the critical MIC of 0.5 mg/L was 29%, 62%, and 95% with the simulated 750 mg, 1000 mg, and 1500 mg doses, respectively, whereas the PTA for resistance prevention at 1500 mg was only 4.8%, with none of the lower doses achieving this target. At the critical MIC of 0.25 mg/L, there was no difference in the PTA (94.4%) for maximum bacterial kill among the simulated doses of MXF (600 mg, 800 mg, and 1000 mg), but the PTA for resistance prevention improved proportionately with dose. Standard LFX and MXF doses may not provide adequate drug exposure. LFX PopPK is more predictable for maximum mycobacterial kill, whereas MXF's resistance prevention target increases with dose. Scr and BMI are likely to be important covariates in dose optimization or therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) studies in Ethiopian patients.

Keywords: population PK, PTA, moxifloxacin, levofloxacin, MDR-TB patients, ethiopia

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Authors: Carlos Arias-Alcaide, Cristina Soguero-Ruiz, Paloma Santos-Álvarez, Adrián García-Romero, Inmaculada Mora-Jiménez

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Analysing clinical data with computers in such a way that have an impact on the practitioners’ workflow is a challenge nowadays. This paper provides a first approach for monitoring the health status of COVID-19 patients through the use of some biomarkers (blood tests) and the simplest Naïve Bayes classifier. Data of two Spanish hospitals were considered, showing the potential of our approach to estimate reasonable posterior probabilities even some days before the event.

Keywords: Bayesian model, blood biomarkers, classification, health tracing, machine learning, posterior probability

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Authors: Hafiz Gulfam Ahmad, Chuangdong Li, Zeeshan Ahmad

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In this paper, we proposed a parallel IDS and honeypot based approach to detect and analyze the unknown and known attack taxonomy for improving the IDS performance and protecting the network from intruders. The main theme of our approach is to record and analyze the intruder activities by using both the low and high interaction honeypots. Our architecture aims to achieve the required goals by combing signature based IDS, honeypots and generate the new signatures. The paper describes the basic component, design and implementation of this approach and also demonstrates the effectiveness of this approach reducing the probability of network attacks.

Keywords: network security, intrusion detection, honeypot, snort, nmap

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Authors: Kurt Maxwell Kusterer, Sylvain Mignot, Annick Vignes

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To our best knowledge YouTube is the largest video hosting platform in the world. A high number of creators, viewers, subscribers and commentators act in this specific eco-system which generates huge sums of money. Views, subscribers, and comments help to increase the popularity of content creators. The most popular creators are sponsored by brands and participate in marketing campaigns. For a few of them, this becomes a financially rewarding profession. This is made possible through the YouTube Partner Program, which shares revenue among creators based on their popularity. We believe that the role of comments in increasing the popularity is to be emphasized. In what follows, YouTube is considered as a bilateral network between the videos and the commentators. Analyzing a detailed data set focused on French YouTubers, we consider each comment as a link between a commentator and a video. Our research question asks what are the predominant features of a video which give it the highest probability to be commented on. Following on from this question, how can we use these features to predict the action of the agent in commenting one video instead of another, considering the characteristics of the commentators, videos, topics, channels, and recommendations. We expect to see that the videos of more popular channels generate higher viewer engagement and thus are more frequently commented. The interest lies in discovering features which have not classically been considered as markers for popularity on the platform. A quick view of our data set shows that 96% of the commentators comment only once on a certain video. Thus, we study a non-weighted bipartite network between commentators and videos built on the sub-sample of 96% of unique comments. A link exists between two nodes when a commentator makes a comment on a video. We run an Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) approach to evaluate which characteristics influence the probability of commenting a video. The creation of a link will be explained in terms of common video features, such as duration, quality, number of likes, number of views, etc. Our data is relevant for the period of 2020-2021 and focuses on the French YouTube environment. From this set of 391 588 videos, we extract the channels which can be monetized according to YouTube regulations (channels with at least 1000 subscribers and more than 4000 hours of viewing time during the last twelve months).In the end, we have a data set of 128 462 videos which consist of 4093 channels. Based on these videos, we have a data set of 1 032 771 unique commentators, with a mean of 2 comments per a commentator, a minimum of 1 comment each, and a maximum of 584 comments.

Keywords: YouTube, social networks, economics, consumer behaviour

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Authors: Alfred Hasanaj , Ardit Gjeta, Miranda Kullolli

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The approach in analyzing defects on different pipe lines is conducted through Failure Assessment Diagram (FAD). These methods of analyses have further extended in recent years. This approach is used to identify and stress out a solution for the defects which randomly occur with gas pipes such are corrosion defects, gauge defects, and combination of defects where gauge and dents are included. Few of the defects are to be analyzed in this paper where our main focus will be the fracture of cast Iron pipes, elastic-plastic failure and plastic collapse of X52 steel pipes for gas transport. We need to conduct a calculation of probability of the defects in order to predict and avoid such costly defects.

Keywords: defects, failure assessment diagrams, steel pipes, safety factor

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Authors: Saurabh Agarwal

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This paper attempts to formalise the effect of demographic variables like marital status, gender, occupation and age on the source of investment advice which, in turn, affect the herd behaviour of investors and probability of investment in near future. Further, postulations have been made for most preferred investment option and purpose of saving and source of investment. Impact of theoretical analysis on choice among investment alternatives has also been investigated. The analysis contributes to understanding the different investment choices made by households in India. The insights offered in the paper indirectly contribute in uncovering the various unexplained asset pricing puzzles.

Keywords: portfolio choice, investment decisions, investor’s behaviour, Indian securities market

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Authors: Imen Bouazzi

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The IEEE-802.15.4 standard utilizes the CSMA-CA mechanism to control nodes access to the shared wireless communication medium. It is becoming the popular choice for various applications of surveillance and control used in wireless sensor network (WSN). The benefit of this standard is evaluated regarding of the packet loss probability who depends on the configuration of IEEE 802.15.4 MAC parameters and the traffic load. Our exigency is to evaluate the effects of various configurable MAC parameters on the performance of beaconless IEEE 802.15.4 networks under different traffic loads, static values of IEEE 802.15.4 MAC parameters (macMinBE, macMaxCSMABackoffs, and macMaxFrame Retries) will be evaluated. To performance analysis, we use ns-2[2] network simulator.

Keywords: WSN, packet loss, CSMA/CA, IEEE-802.15.4

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Authors: Vinicius R. Domingues, Luan C. S. M. Ozelim

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The statistical study has become indispensable for various fields of knowledge. Not any different, in Geotechnics the study of probabilistic and statistical methods has gained power considering its use in characterizing the uncertainties inherent in soil properties. One of the situations where engineers are constantly faced is the definition of a probability distribution that represents significantly the sampled data. To be able to discard bad distributions, goodness-of-fit tests are necessary. In this paper, three non-parametric goodness-of-fit tests are applied to a data set computationally generated to test the goodness-of-fit of them to a series of known distributions. It is shown that the use of normal distribution does not always provide satisfactory results regarding physical and behavioral representation of the modeled parameters.

Keywords: Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson-Darling test, Cramer-Von-Mises test, nonparametric adherence tests

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Authors: Minjung Park, Sangmi Chai, Myoung Jun Lee

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Since there are growing concerns on online privacy, enterprises could involve various personal privacy infringements cases resulting legal causations. For companies that are involving online business, it is important for them to pay extra attentions to protect users’ privacy. If firms can aware consequences from possible online privacy invasion cases, they can more actively prevent future online privacy infringements. This study attempts to predict the probability of ruling types caused by various invasion cases under U.S Personal Privacy Act. More specifically, this research explores online privacy invasion cases which was sentenced guilty to identify types of criminal punishments such as penalty, imprisonment, probation as well as compensation in civil cases. Based on the 853 U.S judicial cases ranged from January, 2000 to May, 2016, which related on data privacy, this research examines the relationship between personal information infringements cases and adjudications. Upon analysis results of 41,724 words extracted from 853 regal cases, this study examined online users’ privacy invasion cases to predict the probability of conviction for a firm as an offender in both of criminal and civil law. This research specifically examines that a cause of privacy infringements and a judgment type, whether it leads a civil or criminal liability, from U.S court. This study applies network text analysis (NTA) for data analysis, which is regarded as a useful method to discover embedded social trends within texts. According to our research results, certain online privacy infringement cases caused by online spamming and adware have a high possibility that firms are liable in the case. Our research results provide meaningful insights to academia as well as industry. First, our study is providing a new insight by applying Big Data analytics to legal cases so that it can predict the cause of invasions and legal consequences. Since there are few researches applying big data analytics in the domain of law, specifically in online privacy, this study suggests new area that future studies can explore. Secondly, this study reflects social influences, such as a development of privacy invasion technologies and changes of users’ level of awareness of online privacy on judicial cases analysis by adopting NTA method. Our research results indicate that firms need to improve technical and managerial systems to protect users’ online privacy to avoid negative legal consequences.

Keywords: network text analysis, online privacy invasions, personal information infringements, predicting judgements

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Authors: Ali Y Al-Attraqchi, P. Rajeev, M. Javad Hashemi, Riadh Al-Mahaidi

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This paper presents a probabilistic incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) of a full reinforced concrete building subjected to column loss scenario for the assessment of progressive collapse. The IDA is chosen to explicitly account for uncertainties in loads and system capacity. Fragility curves are developed to predict the probability of progressive collapse given the loss of one or more columns. At a broader scale, it will also provide critical information needed to support the development of a new generation of design codes that attempt to explicitly quantify structural robustness.

Keywords: fire, nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis, progressive collapse, structural engineering

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Authors: Safia Hocine, Zina Benouaret, Djamil A¨ıssani

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In this paper, we study the performance of the strong stability method of the univariate classical risk model. We interest to the stability bounds established using two approaches. The first based on the strong stability method developed for a general Markov chains. The second approach based on the regenerative processes theory . By adopting an algorithmic procedure, we study the performance of the stability method in the case of exponential distribution claim amounts. After presenting numerically and graphically the stability bounds, an interpretation and comparison of the results have been done.

Keywords: Marcov chain, regenerative process, risk model, ruin probability, strong stability

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Authors: Jingsong Ma

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In political translation, ideology plays an important role in conveying implications accurately. Ideological collisions can occur in political translation when there existdifferences of political environments embedded in the translingual political texts in both source and target languages. To reach an accurate translationrequires the translatorto understand the ideologies implied in (and often transcending) the texts. This paper explores the conditions, procedure, and purpose of processingideological collision and resolution of such issues in political translation. These points will be elucidated by case studies of translating English and Chinese political texts. First, there are specific political terminologies in certain political environments. These terminological peculiarities in one language are often determined by ideological elements rather than by syntactical and semantical understanding. The translation of these ideological-loaded terminologiesis a process and operation consisting of understanding the ideological context, including cultural, historical, and political situations. This will be explained with characteristic Chinese political terminologies and their renderings in English. Second, when the ideology in the source language fails to match with the ideology in the target language, the decisions to highlight or disregard these conflicts are shaped by power relations, political engagement, social context, etc. It thus is necessary to go beyond linguisticanalysis of the context by deciphering ideology in political documents to provide a faithful or equivalent rendering of certain messages. Finally, one of the practical issues is about equivalence in political translation by redefining the notion of faithfulness and retainment of ideological messages in the source language in translations of political texts. To avoid distortion, the translator should be liberated from grip the literal meaning, instead diving into functional meanings of the text.

Keywords: translation, ideology, politics, society

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Authors: Dariusz Jacek Jakóbczak

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Mathematics and computer science are interested in methods of 2D curve interpolation and extrapolation using the set of key points (knots). A proposed method of Hurwitz- Radon Matrices (MHR) is such a method. This novel method is based on the family of Hurwitz-Radon (HR) matrices which possess columns composed of orthogonal vectors. Two-dimensional curve is interpolated via different functions as probability distribution functions: polynomial, sinus, cosine, tangent, cotangent, logarithm, exponent, arcsin, arccos, arctan, arcctg or power function, also inverse functions. It is shown how to build the orthogonal matrix operator and how to use it in a process of curve reconstruction.

Keywords: 2D data interpolation, hurwitz-radon matrices, MHR method, probabilistic modeling, curve extrapolation

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Authors: Khalid. M. O. Elmabrok, M. L. Burby, G. G. Nasr

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Flow instability during gas lift operation is caused by three major phenomena – the density wave oscillation, the casing heading pressure and the flow perturbation within the two-phase flow region. This paper focuses on the causes and the effect of flow instability during gas lift operation and suggests ways to control it in order to maximise productivity during gas lift operations. A laboratory-scale two-phase flow system to study the effects of flow perturbation was designed and built. The apparatus is comprised of a 2 m long by 66 mm ID transparent PVC pipe with air injection point situated at 0.1 m above the base of the pipe. This is the point where stabilised bubbles were visibly clear after injection. Air is injected into the water filled transparent pipe at different flow rates and pressures. The behavior of the different sizes of the bubbles generated within the two-phase region was captured using a digital camera and the images were analysed using the advanced image processing package. It was observed that the average maximum bubbles sizes increased with the increase in the length of the vertical pipe column from 29.72 to 47 mm. The increase in air injection pressure from 0.5 to 3 bars increased the bubble sizes from 29.72 mm to 44.17 mm and then decreasing when the pressure reaches 4 bars. It was observed that at higher bubble velocity of 6.7 m/s, larger diameter bubbles coalesce and burst due to high agitation and collision with each other. This collapse of the bubbles causes pressure drop and reverse flow within two phase flow and is the main cause of the flow instability phenomena.

Keywords: gas lift instability, bubbles forming, bubbles collapsing, image processing

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Authors: Anna Dolinayova, Jozef Danis, Juraj Camaj

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The report deals with comparison of traffic accidents in Slovak republic in road and rail transport since year 2009 until 2014, with evaluation of external costs and consequently with the possibilities of their internalization. The results of road traffic accidents analysis are realized in line with after-effects they have caused; in line with main cause, place of origin (within or out of town) and in accordance to age of people they were killed or hard, eventually easy injured in traffic accidents. Evaluation of individual after-effects is carried in terms of probability of traffic accidents occurrence.

Keywords: external costs, traffic accident, rail transport, road transport

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Authors: N. Burtebayev, Sh. Hamada, Zh. Kerimkulov, D. K. Alimov, A. V. Yushkov, N. Amangeldi, A. N. Bakhtibaev

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The main aim of the current work is to examine if 14N is candidate to be clusterized nuclei or not. In order to check this attendance, we have measured the angular distributions for 14N ion beam elastically scattered on 12C target nuclei at different low energies; 17.5, 21, and 24.5MeV which are close to the Coulomb barrier energy for 14N+12C nuclear system. Study of various transfer reactions could provide us with useful information about the attendance of nuclei to be in a composite form (core + valence). The experimental data were analyzed using two approaches; Phenomenological (Optical Potential) and semi-microscopic (Double Folding Potential). The agreement between the experimental data and the theoretical predictions is fairly good in the whole angular range.

Keywords: deuteron transfer, elastic scattering, optical model, double folding, density distribution

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Authors: Khalid S. Hashim, Andy Shaw, Rafid Alkhaddar, David Phipps, Ortoneda Pedrola

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Temperature is an essential parameter in the electrocoagulation process (EC) as it governs the solubility of electrodes and the precipitates and the collision rate of particles in water being treated. Although it has been about 100 years since the EC technology was invented and applied in water and wastewater treatment, the effects of temperature on the its performance were insufficiently investigated. Thus, the present project aims to fill this gap by an innovative use of perforated flow columns in the designing of a new EC reactor (ECR1). The new reactor (ECR1) consisted of a Perspex made cylinder container supplied with a flow column consisted of perorated discoid electrodes that made from aluminium. The flow column has been installed vertically, half submerged in the water being treated, inside a plastic cylinder. The unsubmerged part of the flow column works as a radiator for the water being treated. In order to investigate the performance of ECR1; water samples with different initial temperatures (15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 °C) to the ECR1 for 20 min. Temperature of effluent water samples were measured using Hanna meter (Model: HI 98130). The obtained results demonstrated that the ECR1 reduced water temperature from 35, 30, and 25 °C to 24.6, 23.8, and 21.8 °C respectively. While low water temperature, 15 °C, increased slowly to reach 19.1 °C after 15 minutes and kept the same level till the end of the treatment period. At the same time, water sample with initial temperature of 20 °C showed almost a steady level of temperature along the treatment process, where the temperature increased negligibly from 20 to 20.1 °C after 20 minutes of treatment. In conclusion, ECR1 is able to control the temperature of water being treated around the room temperature even when the initial temperature was high (35 °C) or low (15 °C).

Keywords: electrocoagulation, flow column, treatment, water temperature

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Authors: Wi-Sun Ryu, Eun-Kee Bae

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Prior studies have shown that patients with right hemispheric stroke are likely to seek medical service compared with those with left hemispheric stroke. However, the underlying mechanism for this phenomenon is unknown. In the present study, we generated lesion probability maps in a patient with right and left middle cerebral artery infarct and statistically compared. We found that precentral gyrus-Brodmann area 44, a language area in the left hemisphere - involvement was significantly higher in patients with left hemispheric stroke. This finding suggests that a language dysfunction was more noticeable, thereby taking more patients to hospitals.

Keywords: cerebral infarct, brain MRI, statistical parametric mapping, middle cerebral infarct

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Authors: Ahmed Hosny, Haroon Elshaikh, Gaber Hassib, Yassin Ali

Abstract:

The Moho discontinuity undulations beneath the southern part of Egypt have been defined using the seismic waves generated by tele earthquakes. These earthquakes have been recorded by the Aswan seismic network, which consists of 10 seismic stations established around the lake of Nasser. An additional seismic station was located towards the east of the Lake of Nasser by about ~ 150 km. Receiver functions and H-k stacking methods were used for obtaining the depths of Moho discontinuity and the Vp/Vs ratios beneath each seismic station. Our results revealed that, the depths of Moho discontinuity beneath the stations located around the Lake of Nasser range from 36 to 39 km, with an average value of 37.5 km. These results are consistent with the previous works done on the same area. The obtained Vp/Vs ratios for the crust of this area were ranged from 1.73 to 1.86, with an average value of 1.79. While beneath the station located towards the east, the Moho discontinuity was detected at a shallowest depth of 27 km and the Vp/Vs ratio was 1.82. The difference in the Moho depths beneath the stations located around the Lake of Nasser and the station located to the east revealed the boundary position between the Saharan Metacraton to the west and the Nubian-Arabian Shield to the east. This structural boundary delineates the position of the old collision of the Oceanic crust of the Nubian-Arabian Shield to the east with the Continental crust of the Saharan Metacraton to the west.

Keywords: Moho undulations, south of Egypt, seismic waves, earthquakes

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Authors: Kexin Tan

Abstract:

The Silk Road is a concept idiosyncratic in nature. Western scholars co-created and conceptualized in its early days, transliterated into the countries along the Silk Road, redefined, reimagined, and reconfigured by the public in the second half of the twentieth century. Therefore, the image is not only a mirror of the discursive interactions between East and West but Self and Other. The travel narrative of Sven Hedin, through which the Silk Road was enriched in meanings and popularized, is the focus of this study. This article examines how the Silk Road was imagined in three key texts of Sven Hedin: The Silk Road, The Wandering Lake, and The Flight of “Big Horse”. Three recurring themes are extracted and analyzed: the Silk Road, the land of enigmas, the virgin land, and the reconnecting road. Ideas about ethnotypes and images drawn from theorists such as Joep Leerssen have been deployed in the analysis. This research tracks how the images were configured, concentrating on China’s ethnotypes, travel writing tropes, and the Silk Road discourse that preceded Sven Hedin. Hedin’s role in his expedition, his geopolitical viewpoints, and the commercial considerations of his books are also discussed in relation to the intellectual construct of the Silk Road. It is discovered that the images of the Silk Road and the discursive traditions behind it are mobile rather than static, inclusive than antithetical. The paradoxical characters of the Silk Road reveal the complexity of the socio-historical background of Hedin’s time, as well as the collision of discursive traditions and practical issues. While it is true that Hedin’s discursive construction of the Silk Road image embodies the bias of Self-West against Other-East, its characteristics such as fluidity and openness could probably offer a hint at its resurgence in the postcolonial era.

Keywords: the silk road, Sven Hedin, imagology, ethnotype, travelogue

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Authors: Kais Manai

Abstract:

The main part of this work focuses on the study of pion/muon separation at low energy using a nuclear Emulsion Cloud Chamber (ECC) made of lead and nuclear emulsion films. The work consists of two parts: particle reconstruction algorithm and a Neural Network that assigns to each reconstructed particle the probability to be a muon or a pion. The pion/muon separation algorithm has been optimized by using a detailed Monte Carlo simulation of the ECC and tested on real data. The algorithm allows to achieve a 60% muon identification efficiency with a pion misidentification smaller than 3%.

Keywords: nuclear emulsion, particle identification, tracking, neural network

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Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver, Reham Al-Hindawi

Abstract:

Despite the availability of natural disaster related time series data for last 110 years, there is no forecasting tool available to humanitarian relief organizations to determine forecasts for emergency logistics planning. This study develops a forecasting tool based on identifying probability of disaster for each country in the world by using decision tree modeling. Further, the determination of aggregate forecasts leads to efficient pre-disaster planning. Based on the research findings, the relief agencies can optimize the various resources allocation in emergency logistics planning.

Keywords: decision tree modeling, forecasting, humanitarian relief, emergency supply chain

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Authors: William Li

Abstract:

Lane-change path planning is a crucial and yet complex task in autonomous driving. The traditional path planning approach based on a system of carefully-crafted rules to cover various driving scenarios becomes unwieldy as more and more rules are added to deal with exceptions and corner cases. This paper proposes to divide the entire path planning to two stages. In the first stage the ego vehicle travels longitudinally in the source lane to reach a safe state. In the second stage the ego vehicle makes lateral lane-change maneuver to the target lane. The paper derives the safe state conditions based on lateral lane-change maneuver calculation to ensure collision free in the second stage. To determine the acceleration sequence that minimizes the time to reach a safe state in the first stage, the paper proposes three schemes, namely, kinetic model based optimization, deep reinforcement learning, and 5G vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications. The paper investigates these schemes via simulation. The model-based optimization is sensitive to the model assumptions. The deep reinforcement learning is more flexible in handling scenarios beyond the model assumed by the optimization. The 5G V2V eliminates uncertainty in predicting future behaviors of surrounding vehicles by sharing driving intents and enabling cooperative driving.

Keywords: lane change, path planning, autonomous driving, deep reinforcement learning, 5G, V2V communications, connected vehicles

Procedia PDF Downloads 203