Search results for: accelerated failure time model

Authors: Dmitriy V. Chulkov

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Escalation of commitment is defined as continuation of a project after receiving negative information about it. While literature in management and psychology identified various factors contributing to escalation behavior, this phenomenon has received little analysis in economics, potentially due to the apparent irrationality of escalation. In this study, we present an economic model of escalation with asymmetric information in a principal-agent setup where the agents are responsible for a project selection decision and discover the outcome of the project before the principal. Our theoretical model complements the existing literature on several accounts. First, we link the incentive to escalate commitment to a project with the turnover decision by the manager. When a manager learns the outcome of the project and stops it that reveals that a mistake was made. There is an incentive to continue failing projects and avoid admitting the mistake. This incentive is enhanced when the agent may voluntarily resign from the firm before the outcome of the failing project is revealed, and thus not bear the full extent of reputation damage due to project failure. As long as some successful managers leave the firm for extraneous reasons, outside firms find it difficult to link failing projects with certainty to managers that left a firm. Second, we demonstrate that non-CEO managers have reputation concerns separate from those of the CEO, and thus may escalate commitment to projects they oversee, when such escalation can attenuate damage to reputation from impending project failure. Such incentive for escalation will be present for non-CEO managers if the CEO delegates responsibility for a project to a non-CEO executive. If reputation matters for promotion to the CEO, the incentive for a rising executive to escalate in order to protect reputation is distinct from that of a CEO. Third, our theoretical model is supported by empirical analysis of changes in the firm’s operations measured by the presence of discontinued operations at the time of turnover among the top four members of the top management team. Discontinued operations are indicative of termination of failing projects at a firm. The empirical results demonstrate that in a large dataset of over three thousand publicly traded U.S. firms for a period from 1993 to 2014 turnover by top executives significantly increases the likelihood that the firm discontinues operations. Furthermore, the type of turnover matters as this effect is strongest when at least one non-CEO member of the top management team leaves the firm and when the CEO departure is due to a voluntary resignation and not to a retirement or illness. Empirical results are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model and suggest that escalation of commitment is primarily observed in decisions by non-CEO members of the top management team.

Keywords: discontinued operations, escalation of commitment, executive turnover, top management teams

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Authors: Kang Lin Peng

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Space tourism emerged in 2001 and became famous in 2021, following the development of space technology. The space market is twisted because of the excess demand. Space tourism is currently rare and extremely expensive, with biased luxury product pricing, which is the seller’s market that consumers can not bargain with. Spaceship companies such as Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin, and Space X have been charged space tourism prices from 200 thousand to 55 million depending on various heights in space. There should be a reasonable price based on a fair basis. This study aims to derive a spacetime pricing model, which is different from the general pricing model on the earth’s surface. We apply general relativity theory to deduct the mathematical formula for the space tourism pricing model, which covers the traditional time-independent model. In the future, the price of space travel will be different from current flight travel when space travel is measured in lightyear units. The pricing of general commodities mainly considers the general equilibrium of supply and demand. The pricing model considers risks and returns with the dependent time variable as acceptable when commodities are on the earth’s surface, called flat spacetime. Current economic theories based on the independent time scale in the flat spacetime do not consider the curvature of spacetime. Current flight services flying the height of 6, 12, and 19 kilometers are charging with a pricing model that measures time coordinate independently. However, the emergence of space tourism is flying heights above 100 to 550 kilometers that have enlarged the spacetime curvature, which means tourists will escape from a zero curvature on the earth’s surface to the large curvature of space. Different spacetime spans should be considered in the pricing model of space travel to echo general relativity theory. Intuitively, this spacetime commodity needs to consider changing the spacetime curvature from the earth to space. We can assume the value of each spacetime curvature unit corresponding to the gradient change of each Ricci or energy-momentum tensor. Then we know how much to spend by integrating the spacetime from the earth to space. The concept is adding a price p component corresponding to the general relativity theory. The space travel pricing model degenerates into a time-independent model, which becomes a model of traditional commodity pricing. The contribution is that the deriving of the space tourism pricing model will be a breakthrough in philosophical and practical issues for space travel. The results of the space tourism pricing model extend the traditional time-independent flat spacetime mode. The pricing model embedded spacetime as the general relativity theory can better reflect the rationality and accuracy of space travel on the universal scale. The universal scale from independent-time scale to spacetime scale will bring a brand-new pricing concept for space traveling commodities. Fair and efficient spacetime economics will also bring to humans’ travel when we can travel in lightyear units in the future.

Keywords: space tourism, spacetime pricing model, general relativity theory, spacetime curvature

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Authors: Sadegh Abebi

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There are problems with estimating time of product process of products, especially when there is variable serving time, like control stage. These problems will cause overestimation of process time. Layout constraints, reworking constraints and inflexible product schedule in multi product lines, needs a precise planning to reduce volume in particular situation of line stock. In this article, by analyzing real queue systems with layout constraints and by using concepts and principles of Markov chain in queue theory, a hybrid model has been presented. This model can be a base to assess queue systems with probable parameters of service. Here by presenting a case study, the proposed model will be described. so, production lines of a home application manufacturer will be analyzed.

Keywords: Queuing theory, Markov Chain, layout, line balance

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Authors: Rochelyn Dona, Serdar Satar

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the biological parameters of A. fabae Scopoli (Hemiptera: Aphididae). Developmental, survival, and reproductive data were collected for Aphis fabae reared on detached bean leaves (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) ‘pinto beans’ at five temperature regimes (12, 16, 20, 24, and 28 °C), 65% relative humidity (RH), relative and a photoperiod of 16:8 (LD) h. The developmental times of immature stages ranged from 16, 65 days at 12°C to 5.70 days at 24°C, but a slight increase again at 28°C (6.62 days). At 24°C from this study presented the developmental threshold for A. fabae slightly to 24°C. The average longevity of mature females significantly decreased from 42.32 days at 12°C to 16.12 days at 28°C. The reproduction rate per female was 62.27 at 16°C and 12.72 at 28°C. The mean generation period of the population ranged from 29.24 at 12°C to 11.50 at 28°C. The highest intrinsic rate of increase (rm = 0.41) were recorded at 24°C, the lowest at 12°C (rm = 0.15). It was evident that temperatures over 28°C augmented the development time, accelerated the death ratio of the nymphal stages, Shrunk Adult longevity, and reduced fecundity. The optimal range of temperature for the population growth of A. fabae on the bean was 16°C-24°C, according to this study.

Keywords: developmental time, intrinsic rate, reproduction period, temperature dependence

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Authors: Zahra Abdolkarimi, Naser Zourikalatehsamad,

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Up to 40 years ago, after recognition of epilepsy, it was generally believed that these attacks occurred randomly and suddenly. However, thanks to the advance of mathematics and engineering, such attacks can be predicted within a few minutes or hours. In this way, various algorithms for long-term prediction of the time and frequency of the first attack are presented. In this paper, by considering the nonlinear nature of brain signals and dynamic recorded brain signals, ANFIS model is presented to predict the brain signals, since according to physiologic structure of the onset of attacks, more complex neural structures can better model the signal during attacks. Contribution of this work is the co-evolution algorithm for optimization of ANFIS network parameters. Our objective is to predict brain signals based on time series obtained from brain signals of the people suffering from epilepsy using ANFIS. Results reveal that compared to other methods, this method has less sensitivity to uncertainties such as presence of noise and interruption in recorded signals of the brain as well as more accuracy. Long-term prediction capacity of the model illustrates the usage of planted systems for warning medication and preventing brain signals.

Keywords: co-evolution algorithms, brain signals, time series, neural networks, ANFIS model, physiologic structure, time prediction, epilepsy suffering, illustrates model

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Authors: J. R. Wang, H. C. Chen, C. Shih, S. W. Chen, J. H. Yang, Y. Chiang

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In this study, we focus on the establishment of the analysis model for Maanshan PWR nuclear power plant (NPP) by using RADTRAD and SNAP codes with the FSAR, manuals, and other data. In order to evaluate the cumulative dose at the Exclusion Area Boundary (EAB) and Low Population Zone (LPZ) outer boundary, Maanshan NPP RADTRAD/SNAP model was used to perform the analysis of the DBA LOCA case. The analysis results of RADTRAD were similar to FSAR data. These analysis results were lower than the failure criteria of 10 CFR 100.11 (a total radiation dose to the whole body, 250 mSv; a total radiation dose to the thyroid from iodine exposure, 3000 mSv).

Keywords: RADionuclide, transport, removal, and dose estimation (RADTRAD), symbolic nuclear analysis package (SNAP), dose, PWR

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Authors: Amel Ourici

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An electrical machine failure that is not identified in an initial stage may become catastrophic and it may suffer severe damage. Thus, undetected machine faults may cascade in it failure, which in turn may cause production shutdowns. Such shutdowns are costly in terms of lost production time, maintenance costs, and wasted raw materials. Doubly fed induction generators are used mainly for wind energy conversion in MW power plants. This paper presents a detection of an inter turn stator fault in a doubly fed induction machine whose stator and rotor are supplied by two pulse width modulation (PWM) inverters. The method used in this article to detect this fault, is based on Park’s Vector Approach, using a neural network.

Keywords: doubly fed induction machine, PWM inverter, inter turn stator fault, Park’s vector approach, neural network

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Authors: Jorge Rodriguez-Guerra, Carlos Calleja, Aron Pujana, Ana Maria Macarulla

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Hydraulic-press commissioning consumes a great amount of man-hours, due to the fact that it takes place several miles away from where it has been designed. This factor became exacerbated due to control designers’ lack of knowledge about which will be the final controller gains before they start working with it. Virtual commissioning has been postulated as an optimal solution to deal with this lack of knowledge. Here, a case study is presented in which a controller is set up against a real-time model based on a hydraulic-press. The press model is designed following manufacturer specifications and it is embedded in a real-time simulator. This methodology ensures that the model achieves similar responses as the real machine that would be placed on the industry. A deterministic communication protocol is in charge of the bidirectional information transmission between the real-time model and the controller. This platform allows the engineer to test and verify the final control responses with exactly the same hardware that is going to be installed in the hydraulic-press, in other words, realize a virtual commissioning of the electro-hydraulic actuator. The Hardware in the Loop (HiL) platform validates in laboratory conditions and harmless for the machine the control algorithms designed, which allows embedding them afterwards in the industrial environment without further modifications.

Keywords: deterministic communication protocol, electro-hydraulic actuator, hardware in the loop, real-time, virtual commissioning

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Authors: Fethi Bouksila, Magnus Persson, Ronny Berndtsson, Akissa Bahri

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Under salinity conditions, we evaluate the performance of Hilhost (2000) model to predict pore electrical conductivity ECp from dielectric permittivity and bulk electrical conductivity (ECa) using Time and Frequency Domain Reflectometry sensors (TDR, FDR). Using FDR_WET sensor, RMSE of ECp was 4.15 dS m-1. By replacing the standard soil parameter (K0) in Hilhost model by K0-ECa relationship, the RMSE of ECp decreased to 0.68 dS m-1. WET sensor could give similar accuracy to estimate ECp than TDR if calibrated values of K0 were used instead of standard values in Hilhost model.

Keywords: hilhost model, soil salinity, time domain reflectometry, frequency domain reflectometry, dielectric methods

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Authors: Idrissa Kayijuka

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The logistic regression and Cox regression models (proportional hazard model) at present are being employed in the analysis of prospective epidemiologic research looking into risk factors in their application on chronic diseases. However, a theoretical relationship between the two models has been studied. By definition, Cox regression model also called Cox proportional hazard model is a procedure that is used in modeling data regarding time leading up to an event where censored cases exist. Whereas the Logistic regression model is mostly applicable in cases where the independent variables consist of numerical as well as nominal values while the resultant variable is binary (dichotomous). Arguments and findings of many researchers focused on the overview of Cox and Logistic regression models and their different applications in different areas. In this work, the analysis is done on secondary data whose source is SPSS exercise data on BREAST CANCER with a sample size of 1121 women where the main objective is to show the application difference between Cox regression model and logistic regression model based on factors that cause women to die due to breast cancer. Thus we did some analysis manually i.e. on lymph nodes status, and SPSS software helped to analyze the mentioned data. This study found out that there is an application difference between Cox and Logistic regression models which is Cox regression model is used if one wishes to analyze data which also include the follow-up time whereas Logistic regression model analyzes data without follow-up-time. Also, they have measurements of association which is different: hazard ratio and odds ratio for Cox and logistic regression models respectively. A similarity between the two models is that they are both applicable in the prediction of the upshot of a categorical variable i.e. a variable that can accommodate only a restricted number of categories. In conclusion, Cox regression model differs from logistic regression by assessing a rate instead of proportion. The two models can be applied in many other researches since they are suitable methods for analyzing data but the more recommended is the Cox, regression model.

Keywords: logistic regression model, Cox regression model, survival analysis, hazard ratio

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Authors: Leila Jafari, Viliam Makis, G. B. Akram Khaleghei

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In this paper, we present a maintenance model of a two-unit series system with economic dependence. Unit#1, which is considered to be more expensive and more important, is subject to condition monitoring (CM) at equidistant, discrete time epochs and unit#2, which is not subject to CM, has a general lifetime distribution. The multivariate observation vectors obtained through condition monitoring carry partial information about the hidden state of unit#1, which can be in a healthy or a warning state while operating. Only the failure state is assumed to be observable for both units. The objective is to find an optimal opportunistic maintenance policy minimizing the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The problem is formulated and solved in the partially observable semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm for finding the optimal policy and the minimum average cost is developed and illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: condition-based maintenance, semi-Markov decision process, multivariate Bayesian control chart, partially observable system, two-unit system

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Authors: Omar M. Ben-Sasi

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Ductility of slab-column connections of flat slab structures is a desirable property that should be considered when designing such connections which are susceptible to punching failure around their columns. Tests to failure on six half-scale specimens were conducted for slab-interior column connections transferring shear force and unbalanced moment. The influences on connection ductility of four parameters; namely, the moment to shear force ratio, the ratio of column side length to slab effective depth, the aspect ratio of the column cross section, and the presence of four square openings located next to column corners were investigated. The study revealed marked effects of these parameters on connection ductility. Increasing the first and second parameters, were found to be in favor of increasing connection ductility, while the third and fourth parameters were found to have negative effects on the connection ductility. These findings should, hopefully, help in designing interior connections of flat slab structures.

Keywords: ductility, flat slab, failure, shear force, moment, unbalanced moment, punching failure, connection, interior-column connection

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Authors: Mahdi Fakoor, Seyed Mohammad Navid Ghoreishi

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Investigation of fracture of wood components can prevent from catastrophic failures. Created fracture process zone (FPZ) in crack tip vicinity has important effect on failure of cracked composite materials. In this paper, a failure criterion for fracture investigation of cracked wood specimens under mixed mode I/II loading is presented. This criterion is based on maximum strain energy release rate and material nonlinearity in the vicinity of crack tip due to presence of microcracks. Verification of results with available experimental data proves the coincidence of the proposed criterion with the nature of fracture of wood. To simplify the estimation of nonlinear properties of FPZ, a damage factor is also introduced for engineering and application purposes.

Keywords: fracture criterion, mixed mode loading, damage zone, micro cracks

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Authors: Irena Basaric Ikodinovic, Dragoslav Rakic, Mirjana Vukicevic, Sanja Jockovic, Jovana Jankovic Pantic

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Large long-term settlement occurs at the municipal solid waste landfills over an extended period of time which may lead to breakage of the geomembrane, damage of the cover systems, other protective systems or facilities constructed on top of a landfill. Also, municipal solid waste is an extremely heterogeneous material and its properties vary over location and time within a landfill. These material characteristics require the formulation of a new constitutive model to predict the long-term settlement of municipal solid waste. The paper presents a new constitutive model which is formulated to describe the mechanical behavior of municipal solid waste. Model is based on Modified Cam Clay model and the critical state soil mechanics framework incorporating time-dependent components: mechanical creep and biodegradation of municipal solid waste. The formulated constitutive model is optimized and defined with eight input parameters: five Modified Cam Clay parameters, one parameter for mechanical creep and two parameters for biodegradation of municipal solid waste. Thereafter, the constitutive model is implemented in the software suite for finite element analysis (ABAQUS) and numerical analysis of the experimental landfill settlement is performed. The proposed model predicts the total settlement which is in good agreement with field measured settlement at the experimental landfill.

Keywords: constitutive model, finite element analysis, municipal solid waste, settlement

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Authors: Konstantin A. Bochaver, Alexandra O. Savinkina

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The study analyzed the relationship between the homogeneity-heterogeneity of players in a football team and their efficiency. Compatible players were examined in terms of level of socio-psychological development of the team for which they act. It was shown that in teams of high level of socio-psychological development more compatible were athletes with different levels of failure avoidance motivation. But in low-level teams – bucking the trend. The homogeneity of success achievement motivation was not a factor in the effectiveness of the football team.

Keywords: compatibility, failure avoidance motivation, football, heterogeneity, homogeneity, soccer, sport team, success achievement motivation

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Authors: Giuliano Raimondo, Jörg Wangemann, Peer Drechsel

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In systems development involving Fuel Cells generators, it is important to have from an early stage of the project a dynamic model for the electrical behavior of the stack to be shared between involved development parties. It allows independent and early design and tests of fuel cell related power electronic. This paper presents an empirical Fuel Cell system model derived from characterization tests on a real system. Moreover, it is illustrated how the obtained model is used to build and validate a real-time Fuel Cell system emulator which is used for aerospace electrical integration testing activities.

Keywords: fuel cell, modelling, real time emulation, testing

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Authors: T. Teruzzi, S. Antonietti, C. Mosca, C. Paglia

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This paper discusses the causes of the structural failure in a tower crane. The structural collapse occurred at the upper joints of the extension element used to increase the height of the crane. The extension element consists of a steel lattice structure made with angular profiles and plates joined to the tower element by arc welding. Macroscopic inspection of the sections showed that the break was always observed on the angular profiles at the weld bead edge. The case study shows how, using mechanical characterization, chemical analysis of the steel and macroscopic and microscopic metallographic examinations, it was possible to obtain significant evidence that identified the mechanism causing the breakage. The analyses identified the causes of the structural failure as the use of materials that were not suitable for welding and poor performance in the welding joints.

Keywords: failure, metals, weld, microstructure

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Authors: Omar Alsetoohy, Mohamed Ezzat, Mahmoud Abou Kamar

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The success of a restaurant or hotel depends very much on the quality and quantity of its human resources. Thus, establishing a competitive edge through human assets requires careful attention to the practices that best leverage these assets. Usually, hotel or restaurant employees recognize customer defection as an unfavorable or unpleasant occurrence associated with failure. These failures could be in handling, communication, learning, or encouragement. Besides, employees could be afraid of blame from their colleagues and managers, which prevents them from freely discussing these mistakes with them. Such behaviors, in turn, would push employees to withdraw from the workplace. However, we have a good knowledge of the leadership outcomes, but less is known about how and why these effects occur. Accordingly, mindful leaders usually analyze the causes and underlying mechanisms of failures for work improvement. However, despite the excessive literature in the field of leadership and employee behaviors, to date, no research studies had investigated the impact of a failure-tolerant restaurant culture on the employees’ withdrawal behaviors considering the moderating role of psychological empowerment and mindful leadership. Thus, this study seeks to investigate the impact of a failure-tolerant culture on the employees’ withdrawal behaviors in fast-food restaurants in Egypt considering the moderating effects of employee empowerment and mindful leaders. This study may contribute to the existing literature by filling the gap between failure-tolerant cultures and employee withdrawal behaviors in the hospitality literature. The study may also identify the best practices for restaurant operators and managers to deal with employees' failures as an improvement tool for their performance.

Keywords: failure-tolerant culture, employees’ withdrawal behaviors psychological empowerment, mindful leadership, restaurants

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Authors: H. Namazi, H. T. N. Kuan

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It is known that in humans, the adaptation to a given odor occurs within a quite short span of time (typically one minute) after the odor is presented to the brain. Different models of human olfaction have been developed by scientists but none of these models consider the diffusion phenomenon in olfaction. A novel microscopic model of the human olfaction is presented in this paper. We develop this model by incorporating the transient diffusivity. In fact, the mathematical model is written based on diffusion of the odorant within the mucus layer. By the use of the model developed in this paper, it becomes possible to provide quantification of the objective strength of odor.

Keywords: diffusion, microscopic model, mucus layer, olfaction

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Authors: Larbi Hammadi, N. Boudjenane, N. Benhallou, R. Houjedje, R. Reffis, M. Belhadri

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Many of clays exhibited the thixotropic behavior in which, the apparent viscosity of material decreases with time of shearing at constant shear rate. The structural kinetic model (SKM) was used to characterize the thixotropic behavior of two different kinds of clays used in fabrication of ceramic. Clays selected for analysis represent the fluid and semisolid clays materials. The SKM postulates that the change in the rheological behavior is associated with shear-induced breakdown of the internal structure of the clays. This model for the structure decay with time at constant shear rate assumes nth order kinetics for the decay of the material structure with a rate constant.

Keywords: ceramic, clays, structural kinetic model, thixotropy, viscosity

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Authors: Jamil Ahmed

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Access control models aim to decide whether a user should be denied or granted access to the user‟s requested activity. Various access control models have been established and proposed. The most prominent of these models include role-based, attribute-based, policy based access control models as well as role-centric attribute based access control model. In this paper, a novel access control model is presented called “Role centric Attribute based Policy Driven Access Control (RAPDAC) model”. RAPDAC incorporates the concept of “policy” in the “role centric attribute based access control model”. It leverages the concept of "policy‟ by precisely combining the evaluation of conditions, attributes, permissions and roles in order to allow authorization access. This approach allows capturing the "access control policy‟ of a real time application in a well defined manner. RAPDAC model allows making access decision at much finer granularity as illustrated by the case study of a real time library information system.

Keywords: authorization, access control model, role based access control, attribute based access control

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Authors: C. Scurr, J. Jeans, S. Srivastava

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Introduction: Acute type two respiratory failure (T2RF) has become a common presentation over the last two decades primarily due to an increase in the prevalence of chronic lung disease. Acute exacerbations can be managed either medically or in combination with non-invasive ventilation (NIV) which should be monitored with regular arterial blood gas samples (ABG). Arterial lines allow more frequent arterial blood sampling with less patient discomfort. We present the experience from a teaching hospital emergency department (ED) and level 2 medical high-dependency unit (HDU) that together form the pathway for management of acute type 2 respiratory failure. Methods: Patients acutely presenting to Charing Cross Hospital, London, with T2RF requiring non-invasive ventilation (NIV) over 14 months (2011 to 2012) were identified from clinical coding. Retrospective data collection included: demographics, co-morbidities, blood gas numbers and timing, if arterial lines were used and who performed this. Analysis was undertaken using Microsoft Excel. Results: Coding identified 107 possible patients. 69 notes were available, of which 41 required NIV for type 2 respiratory failure. 53.6% of patients had an arterial line inserted. Patients with arterial lines had 22.4 ABG in total on average compared to 8.2 for those without. These patients had a similar average time to normalizing pH of (23.7 with arterial line vs 25.6 hours without), and no statistically significant difference in mortality. Arterial lines were inserted by Foundation year doctors, Core trainees, Medical registrars as well as the ICU registrar. 63% of these were performed by the medical registrar rather than ICU, ED or a junior doctor. This is reflected in that the average time until an arterial line was inserted was 462 minutes. The average number of ABGs taken before an arterial line was 2 with a range of 0 – 6. The average number of gases taken if no arterial line was ever used was 7.79 (range of 2-34) – on average 4 times as many arterial punctures for each patient. Discussion: Arterial line use was associated with more frequent arterial blood sampling during each inpatient admission. Additionally, patients with an arterial line have less individual arterial punctures in total and this is likely more comfortable for the patient. Arterial lines are normally sited by medical registrars, however this is normally after some delay. ED clinicians could improve patient comfort and monitoring thus allowing faster titration of NIV if arteral lines were regularly inserted in the ED. We recommend that ED doctors insert arterial lines when indicated in order improve the patient experience and facilitate medical management.

Keywords: non invasive ventilation, arterial blood gas, acute type, arterial line

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Authors: Nicolas Plamondon, Stuart Atkinson, Shuzi Zhou

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The insurance industry is usually not the first topic one has in mind when thinking about applications of data science. However, the use of data science in the finance and insurance industry is growing quickly for several reasons, including an abundance of reliable customer data, ferocious competition requiring more accurate pricing, etc. Among the top use cases of data science, we find pricing optimization, customer segmentation, customer risk assessment, fraud detection, marketing, and triage analytics. The objective of this paper is to present an application of the generalized additive model (GAM) on a commercial automobile insurance product: an individually rated commercial automobile. These are vehicles used for commercial purposes, but for which there is not enough volume to apply pricing to several vehicles at the same time. The GAM model was selected as an improvement over GLM for its ease of use and its wide range of applications. The model was trained using the largest split of the data to determine model parameters. The remaining part of the data was used as testing data to verify the quality of the modeling activity. We used the Gini coefficient to evaluate the performance of the model. For long-term monitoring, commonly used metrics such as RMSE and MAE will be used. Another topic of interest in the insurance industry is to process of producing the model. We will discuss at a high level the interactions between the different teams with an insurance company that needs to work together to produce a model and then monitor the performance of the model over time. Moreover, we will discuss the regulations in place in the insurance industry. Finally, we will discuss the maintenance of the model and the fact that new data does not come constantly and that some metrics can take a long time to become meaningful.

Keywords: insurance, data science, modeling, monitoring, regulation, processes

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Authors: Abdoullah Fath-Allah, Laila Cheikhi, Rafa E. Al-Qutaish, Ali Idri

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The e-government emerging concept transforms the way in which the citizens are dealing with their governments. Thus, the citizens can execute the intended services online anytime and anywhere. This results in great benefits for both the governments (reduces the number of officers) and the citizens (more flexibility and time saving). Therefore, building a maturity model to assess the e-government portals becomes desired to help in the improvement process of such portals. This paper aims at proposing an e-government maturity model based on the measurement of the best practices’ presence. The main benefit of such maturity model is to provide a way to rank an e-government portal based on the used best practices, and also giving a set of recommendations to go to the higher stage in the maturity model.

Keywords: best practices, e-government portal, maturity model, quality model

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Authors: Reza Lotfalian, Sudarshan Martins, Peter Radziszewski

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The effect of reliability on life-cycle cost, including initial and maintenance cost of a system is studied. The failure probability of a component is used to calculate the average maintenance cost during the operation cycle of the component. The standard deviation of the life-cycle cost is also calculated as an error measure for the average life-cycle cost. As a numerical example, the model is used to study the average life cycle cost of an electric motor.

Keywords: initial cost, life-cycle cost, maintenance cost, reliability

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Authors: Simona Capossela, Ramona Schaniel, Singer Franziska, Aquino Fournier Catharine, Daniel Stekhoven, Jivko Stoyanov

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A spinal cord injury (SCI) is a traumatic life event that often results in ageing associated health conditions such as muscle mass decline, adipose tissue increase, decline in immune function, frailty, systemic chronic inflammation, and psychological distress and depression. Psychological, oxidative, and metabolic stressors may facilitate accelerated ageing in the SCI population with reduced life expectancy. Research designs using biomarkers of aging and stress are needed to elucidate the role of psychological distress in accelerated aging. The aim of this project is a feasibility pilot study to observe changes in stress biomarkers and correlate them with aging markers in SCI patients during their first rehabilitation (longitudinal cohort study). Biological samples were collected in the SwiSCI (Swiss Spinal Cord Injury Cohort Study) Biobank in Nottwil at 4 weeks±12 days after the injury (T1) and at the end of the first rehabilitation (discharge, T4). The "distress thermometer" is used as a selfassessment tool for psychological distress. Stress biomarkers, as cortisol and protein carbonyl content (PCC), and markers of cellular aging, such as telomere lengths, will be measured. 2 Preliminary results showed that SCI patients (N= 129) are still generally distressed at end of rehabilitation, however we found a statistically significant (p< 0.001) median decrease in distress from 6 (T1) to 5 (T4) during the rehabilitation. In addition, an explorative transcriptomics will be conducted on N=50 SCI patients to compare groups of persons with SCI who have different trajectories of selfreported distress at the beginning and end of the first rehabilitation after the trauma. We identified 4 groups: very high chronic stress (stress thermometer values above 7 at T1 and T4; n=14); transient stress (high to low; n=14), low stress (values below 5 at T1 and T4; n=14), increasing stress (low to high; n=8). The study will attempt to identify and address issues that may occur in relation to the design and conceptualization of future study on stress and aging in the SCI population.

Keywords: stress, aging, spinal cord injury, biomarkers

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Authors: Yuko Ishiwaka, Tomohiro Yoshida, Tadateru Itoh

Abstract:

Human makes preparation called readiness potential unconsciously (RP) before awareness of their own decision. For example, when recognizing a button and pressing the button, the RP peaks are observed 200 ms before the initiation of the movement. It has been known that the preparatory movements are acquired before actual movements, but it has not been still well understood how humans can obtain the RP during their growth. On the proposition of why the brain must respond earlier, we assume that humans have to adopt the dangerous environment to survive and then obtain the behavior to cover the various time lags distributed in the body. Without RP, humans cannot take action quickly to avoid dangerous situations. In taking action, the brain makes decisions, and signals are transmitted through the Spinal Cord to the muscles to the body moves according to the laws of physics. Our research focuses on the time lag of the neuron signal transmitting from a brain to muscle via a spinal cord. This time lag is one of the essential factors for readiness potential. We propose a firing pattern controller model of a motor nerve system considered innervation and jitter, which produces time lag. In our simulation, we adopt innervation and jitter in our proposed muscle-skeleton model, because these two factors can create infinitesimal time lag. Q10 Hodgkin Huxley model to calculate action potentials is also adopted because the refractory period produces a more significant time lag for continuous firing. Keeping constant power of muscle requires cooperation firing of motor neurons because a refractory period stifles the continuous firing of a neuron. One more factor in producing time lag is slow or fast-twitch. The Expanded Hill Type model is adopted to calculate power and time lag. We will simulate our model of muscle skeleton model by controlling the firing pattern and discuss the relationship between the time lag of physics and neurons. For our discussion, we analyze the time lag with our simulation for knee bending. The law of inertia caused the most influential time lag. The next most crucial time lag was the time to generate the action potential induced by innervation and jitter. In our simulation, the time lag at the beginning of the knee movement is 202ms to 203.5ms. It means that readiness potential should be prepared more than 200ms before decision making.

Keywords: firing patterns, innervation, jitter, motor nerve system, readiness potential

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Authors: Thayalan Nall, Andreas Putra

Abstract:

A major offshore reclamation work is currently underway in Southeast Asia for a container terminal. The total extent of the reclamation extent is 2600m x 800m and the seabed level is around -5mRL below mean sea level. Subsoil profile below seabed comprises soft marine clays of thickness varying from 8m to 15m. To contain the dredging spoil within the reclamation area, perimeter bunds have been constructed to +2.5mRL. They include breakwaters of trapezoidal geometry, made of boulder size rock along the northern, eastern and western perimeters, with a sand bund along the southern perimeter. Breakwaters were constructed on a composite bamboo pile and raft foundation system. Bamboo clusters 8m long, with 7 individual Bamboos bundled together as one, have been installed within the footprint of the breakwater below seabed in soft marine clay. To facilitate drainage two prefabricated vertical drains (PVD) have been attached to each cluster. Once the cluster piles were installed, a bamboo raft was placed as a load transfer platform. Rafts were made up of 5 layers of bamboo mattress, and in each layer bamboos were spaced at 200mm centres. The rafts wouldn’t sink under their own weight, and hence, they were sunk by loading quarry run rock onto them. Bamboo is a building material available in abundance in Indonesia and obtained at a relatively low cost. They are commonly used as semi-rigid inclusions to improve compressibility and stability of soft soils. Although bamboo is widely used in soft soil engineering design, no local design guides are available and the designs are carried out based on local experience. In June 2015, when the 1st load of sand was pumped by a dredging vessel next to the breakwater, a 150m long section of the breakwater underwent failure and displaced the breakwater between 1.2m to 4.0m. The cause of the failure was investigated to implement remedial measures to reduce the risk of further failures. Analyses using both limit equilibrium approach and finite element modelling revealed two plausible modes of breakwater failure. This paper outlines: 1) Developed Geology and the ground model, 2) The techniques used for the installation of bamboo piles, 3) Details of the analyses including modes and mechanism of failure and 4) Design changes incorporated to reduce the risk of failure.

Keywords: bamboo piles, ground improvement, reclamation, breakwater failure

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Authors: Fu-Pei Hsiao, Fung-Chung Tu, Chien-Kuo Chiu

Abstract:

In this work, to develop a method for detailed assesses of post-earthquake seismic performance for RC buildings in Taiwan, experimental data for several column specimens with various failure modes (flexural failure, flexural-shear failure, and shear failure) are used to derive reduction factors of seismic capacity for specified damage states. According to the damage states of RC columns and their corresponding seismic reduction factors suggested by experimental data, this work applies the detailed seismic performance assessment method to identify the seismic capacity of earthquake-damaged RC buildings. Additionally, a post-earthquake emergent assessment procedure is proposed that can provide the data needed for decision about earthquake-damaged buildings in a region with high seismic hazard. Finally, three actual earthquake-damaged school buildings in Taiwan are used as a case study to demonstrate application of the proposed assessment method.

Keywords: seismic assessment, seismic reduction factor, residual seismic ratio, post-earthquake, reinforced concrete, building

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Authors: Marisa Chrysochoou, James Mahoney, Kay Wille

Abstract:

Pyrrhotite is an iron-sulfide mineral which releases sulfuric acid when exposed to water and oxygen. The presence of this mineral in concrete foundations across Connecticut and Massachusetts in the US is causing in some cases premature failure. This has resulted in a devastating crisis for all parties affected by this type of failure which can take up to 15-25 years before internal damage becomes visible on the surface. This study shares laboratory results aimed to investigate the fundamental mechanisms of pyrrhotite reaction and to further the understanding of its deterioration kinetics within concrete. This includes the following analyses: total sulfur, wavelength dispersive X-ray fluorescence, expansion, reaction rate combined with ion-chromatography, as well as damage evolution using electro-chemical acceleration. This information is coupled to a statistical analysis of over 150 analyzed concrete foundations. Those samples were obtained and process using a developed and validated sampling method that is minimally invasive to the foundation in use, provides representative samples of the concrete matrix across the entire foundation, and is time and cost-efficient. The processed samples were then analyzed using a developed modular testing method based on total sulfur and wavelength dispersive X-ray fluorescence analysis to quantify the amount of pyrrhotite. As part of the statistical analysis the results were grouped into the following three categories: no damage observed and no pyrrhotite detected, no damage observed and pyrrhotite detected and damaged observed and pyrrhotite detected. As expected, a strong correlation between amount of pyrrhotite, age of the concrete and damage is observed. Information from the laboratory investigation and from the statistical analysis of field samples will aid in forming a scientific basis to support the decision process towards sustainable financial and administrative solutions by state and local stakeholders.

Keywords: concrete, pyrrhotite, risk of failure, statistical analysis

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