Search results for: highlights of the new Indian bankruptcy code 2016

Authors: Alexandru-Ion Marinescu

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There exist a plethora of methods in the scientific literature which tackle the well-established task of credit score evaluation. In its most abstract form, a credit scoring algorithm takes as input several credit applicant properties, such as age, marital status, employment status, loan duration, etc. and must output a binary response variable (i.e. “GOOD” or “BAD”) stating whether the client is susceptible to payment return delays. Data imbalance is a common occurrence among financial institution databases, with the majority being classified as “GOOD” clients (clients that respect the loan return calendar) alongside a small percentage of “BAD” clients. But it is the “BAD” clients we are interested in since accurately predicting their behavior is crucial in preventing unwanted loss for loan providers. We add to this whole context the constraint that the algorithm must yield an actual, tractable mathematical formula, which is friendlier towards financial analysts. To this end, we have turned to genetic algorithms and genetic programming, aiming to evolve actual mathematical expressions using specially tailored mutation and crossover operators. As far as data representation is concerned, we employ a very flexible mechanism – LINQ expression trees, readily available in the C# programming language, enabling us to construct executable pieces of code at runtime. As the title implies, they model trees, with intermediate nodes being operators (addition, subtraction, multiplication, division) or mathematical functions (sin, cos, abs, round, etc.) and leaf nodes storing either constants or variables. There is a one-to-one correspondence between the client properties and the formula variables. The mutation and crossover operators work on a flattened version of the tree, obtained via a pre-order traversal. A consequence of our chosen technique is that we can identify and discard client properties which do not take part in the final score evaluation, effectively acting as a dimensionality reduction scheme. We compare ourselves with state of the art approaches, such as support vector machines, Bayesian networks, and extreme learning machines, to name a few. The data sets we benchmark against amount to a total of 8, of which we mention the well-known Australian credit and German credit data sets, and the performance indicators are the following: percentage correctly classified, area under curve, partial Gini index, H-measure, Brier score and Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic, respectively. Finally, we obtain encouraging results, which, although placing us in the lower half of the hierarchy, drive us to further refine the algorithm.

Keywords: expression trees, financial credit scoring, genetic algorithm, genetic programming, symbolic evolution

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Authors: S. Gustafsson

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The aim of this paper is to explore the connection between gender, agency, and health on personal and social levels over time. The use of gender as an analytical tool for health research has been shown to be useful to explore thoughts and ideas that are taken for granted, which have relevance for health. The paper highlights the following three issues. There are multiple forms of femininity and masculinity. Agency and social structure are closely related and referred to in this paper as 'gender agency'. Gender is illuminated as a product of history but also treated as a social factor and a producer of history. As a prominent social factor in the process of shaping living conditions, gender is highlighted as being significant for understanding health. To make health explicit as a dynamic and complex concept and not merely the opposite of disease requires a broader alliance with feminist theory and a post-Bourdieusian framework. A personal story, included with other ethnographic material about women’s networking in rural Sweden, is used as an empirical illustration. Ethnographic material was chosen for its ability to illustrate historical, local, and cultural ways of doing gendered and capitalized health. New concepts characterize ethnography, exemplified in this study by 'processes of transformation'. The semi-structured interviews followed an interview guide drafted with reference to the background theory of gender. The interviews lasted about an hour and were recorded and transcribed verbatim. The transcribed interviews and the author’s field notes formed the basis for the writing up of this paper. Initially, the participants' interests in weaving, sewing, and various handicrafts became obvious foci for networking activities and seemed at first to shape compliance with patriarchy, which generally does the opposite of promoting health. However, a significant event disrupted the stability of this phenomenon. What was permissible for the women began to crack and new spaces opened up. By exploiting these new spaces, the participants found opportunities to try out alternatives to emphasized femininity. Over time, they began combining feminized activities with degrees of masculinity, as leadership became part of the activities. In response to this, masculine enactment was gradually transformed and became increasingly gender neutral. As the tasks became more gender neutral the activities assumed a more formal character and the women stretched the limits of their capacity by enacting gender agency, a process the participants referred to as 'personal growth' and described as health promotion. What was described in terms of 'personal growth' can be interpreted as the effects of a raised status. Participation in women’s networking strengthened the participants’ structural position. More specifically, it was the gender-neutral position that was rewarded. To clarify the connection between gender, agency, and health on personal and social levels over time the concept processes of transformation is used. This concept is suggested as a dynamic equivalent to habitus. Health is thus seen as resulting from situational access to social recognition, prestige, capital assets and not least, meanings of gender.

Keywords: a cross-gender bodily hexis, gender agency, gender as analytical tool, processes of transformation

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Authors: Hamed Yaghoubi, Esmaeil Salahi, Fateme Taati

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The effective shear and bulk viscosity, as well as dynamic viscosity, describe the rheological properties of the ceramic body during the liquid phase sintering process. The rheological parameters depend on the physical and thermomechanical characteristics of the material such as relative density, temperature, grain size, and diffusion coefficient and activation energy. The main goal of this research is to acquire a comprehensive understanding of the response of an incompressible viscose ceramic material during liquid phase sintering process such as stress-strain relations, sintering and hydrostatic stress, the prediction of anisotropic shrinkage and heterogeneous densification as a function of sintering time by including the simultaneous influence of gravity field, and frictional force. After raw materials analysis, the standard hard porcelain mixture as a ceramic body was designed and prepared. Three different experimental configurations were designed including midpoint deflection, sinter bending, and free sintering samples. The numerical method for the ceramic specimens during the liquid phase sintering process are implemented in the CREEP user subroutine code in ABAQUS. The numerical-experimental procedure shows the anisotropic behavior, the complete difference in spatial displacement through three directions, the incompressibility for ceramic samples during the sintering process. The anisotropic shrinkage factor has been proposed to investigate the shrinkage anisotropy. It has been shown that the shrinkage along the normal axis of casting sample is about 1.5 times larger than that of casting direction, the gravitational force in pyroplastic deformation intensifies the shrinkage anisotropy more than the free sintering sample. The lowest and greatest equivalent creep strain occurs at the intermediate zone and around the central line of the midpoint distorted sample, respectively. In the sinter bending test sample, the equivalent creep strain approaches to the maximum near the contact area with refractory support. The inhomogeneity in Von-Misses, pressure, and principal stress intensifies the relative density non-uniformity in all samples, except in free sintering one. The symmetrical distribution of stress around the center of free sintering sample, cause to hinder the pyroplastic deformations. Densification results confirmed that the effective bulk viscosity was well-defined with relative density values. The stress analysis confirmed that the sintering stress is more than the hydrostatic stress from start to end of sintering time so, from both theoretically and experimentally point of view, the sintering process occurs completely.

Keywords: anisotropic shrinkage, ceramic material, liquid phase sintering process, rheological properties, numerical-experimental procedure

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Authors: Zongyan Yang, Gagan K. Jena, Sankar B. Karanam, Noora M. A. Hokal

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Jumeirah First beach, a segment of coastline of length 1.5 km, is one of the popular public beaches in Dubai, UAE. The stability of the beach has been affected by several coastal developmental projects, including The World, Island 2 and La Mer. A comprehensive stabilization scheme comprising of two composite groynes (of lengths 90 m and 125m), modification to the northern breakwater of Jumeirah Fishing Harbour and beach re-nourishment was implemented by Dubai Municipality in 2012. However, the performance of the implemented stabilization scheme has been compromised by La Mer project (built in 2016), which modified the wave climate at the Jumeirah First beach. The objective of the coastal modelling studies is to establish design basis for further beach stabilization scheme(s). Comprehensive coastal modelling studies had been conducted to establish the nearshore wave climate, equilibrium beach orientations and stable beach plan forms. Based on the outcomes of the modeling studies, recommendation had been made to extend the composite groynes to stabilize the Jumeirah First beach. Wave transformation was performed following an interpolation approach with wave transformation matrixes derived from simulations of a possible range of wave conditions in the region. The Dubai coastal wave model is developed with MIKE21 SW. The offshore wave conditions were determined from PERGOS wave data at 4 offshore locations with consideration of the spatial variation. The lateral boundary conditions corresponding to the offshore conditions, at Dubai/Abu Dhabi and Dubai Sharjah borders, were derived with application of LitDrift 1D wave transformation module. The Dubai coastal wave model was calibrated with wave records at monitoring stations operated by Dubai Municipality. The wave transformation matrix approach was validated with nearshore wave measurement at a Dubai Municipality monitoring station in the vicinity of the Jumeirah First beach. One typical year wave time series was transformed to 7 locations in front of the beach to count for the variation of wave conditions which are affected by adjacent and offshore developments. Equilibrium beach orientations were estimated with application of LitDrift by finding the beach orientations with null annual littoral transport at the 7 selected locations. The littoral transport calculation results were compared with beach erosion/accretion quantities estimated from the beach monitoring program (twice a year including bathymetric and topographical surveys). An innovative integral method was developed to outline the stable beach plan forms from the estimated equilibrium beach orientations, with predetermined minimum beach width. The optimal lengths for the composite groyne extensions were recommended based on the stable beach plan forms.

Keywords: composite groyne, equilibrium beach orientation, stable beach plan form, wave transformation matrix

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Authors: Robert Kwame Kpaliba, Dennis Kpakpor Adotey, Yaw Serfor-Armah

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Increase in the oceanic carbon dioxide absorbance from the atmosphere due to climate change has led to appreciable change in the chemistry of the oceans. The change in oceanic pH referred to as ocean acidification poses multiple threats and stresses on marine species, biodiversity, goods and services, and livelihoods. Marine ecosystems are continuously threatened by plethora of natural and anthropogenic stressors including carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions causing a lot of changes which has not been experienced for approximately 60 years. Little has been done in Africa as a whole and Ghana in particular to improve the understanding of the variations of the carbonate chemistry of seawater and the biophysical impacts of ocean acidification on security of seafood, nutrition, climate and environmental change. There is, therefore, the need for regular monitoring of carbonate chemistry of seawater along Ghana’s coastline to generate reliable data to aid marine policy formulation. Samples of seawater were collected thrice every month for a one-year period from five study sites for the various parameters to be analyzed. Analysis of the measured physico-chemical and the carbonate chemistry parameters was done using simple statistics. Correlation test and ANOVA were run on both of the physico-chemical and carbonate chemistry parameters. The carbonate chemistry parameters were measured using computer software programme (CO₂cal v4.0.9) except total alkalinity and pH. The study assessed the variability of seawater carbonate chemistry in selected portions of the Central Atlantic Coastline of Ghana (Tsokomey/Bortianor, Kokrobitey, Gomoa Nyanyanor, Gomoa Fetteh, and Senya Breku landing beaches) over a 1-year period (June 2016–May 2017). For physico-chemical parameters, there was insignificant variation in nitrate (NO₃⁻) (1.62 - 2.3 mg/L), ammonia (NH₃) (1.52 - 2.05 mg/L), and salinity (sal) (34.50 - 34.74 ppt). Carbonate chemistry parameters for all the five study sites showed significant variation: partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO₂) (414.08-715.5 µmol/kg), carbonate ion (CO₃²⁻) (115-157.92 µmol/kg), pH (7.9-8.12), total alkalinity (TA) (1711.8-1986 µmol/kg), total carbon dioxide (TCO₂) (1512.1 - 1792 µmol/kg), dissolved carbon dioxide (CO₂aq) (10.97-18.92 µmol/kg), Revelle Factor (RF) (9.62-11.84), aragonite (ΩAr) (0.75-1.48) and calcite (ΩCa) (1.08-2.14). The study revealed that the partial pressure of carbon dioxide and temperature did not have a significant effect on each other (r² = 0.31) (p-value = 0.0717). There was an appreciable effect of pH on dissolved carbon dioxide (r² = 0.921) (p-value = 0.0000). The variation between total alkalinity and dissolved carbon dioxide was appreciable (r² = 0.731) (p-value = 0.0008). There was a significant correlation between total carbon dioxide and dissolved carbon dioxide (r² = 0.852) (p-value = 0.0000). Revelle factor correlated strongly with dissolved carbon dioxide (r² = 0.982) (p-value = 0.0000). Partial pressure of carbon dioxide corresponds strongly with atmospheric carbon dioxide (r² = 0.9999) (p-value = 0.00000).

Keywords: carbonate chemistry, seawater, central atlantic coastline, Ghana, ocean acidification

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Authors: M. K. Sheikh, Y. M. Laghari., P. K. Lashari., N. T. Narejo

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The Indus River is one of the longest important rivers of the world in Asia that flows southward through Pakistan, merges into the Arabian Sea near the port city of Karachi in Sindh Province, and forms the Indus Delta. Fish are an important resource for humans worldwide, especially as food. In fish, healthy nutriments are present which are not found in any other meat source because it have a huge quantity of omega- 3 fatty acids, which are very essential for the human body. Ichthyologic surveys were conducted to explore the diversity of freshwater fishes, distribution, abundance and current status of the fishes at different spatial scale of the downstream, Indus River. Total eight stations were selected namely Railo Miyan (RM), Karokho (Kk), Khanpur (Kp), Mullakatiyar (Mk), Wasi Malook Shah (WMS), Branch Morie (BM), Sujawal (Sj) and Jangseer (JS). The study was carried in the period of January 2016 to December 2019 to identify River and biodiversity threats and to suggest recommendations for conservation. The data were analysed by different population diversity index. Altogether, 124 species were recorded belonging to 12 Orders and 43 Families from the downstream of Indus River. Among 124 species, 29% belong to high commercial value and 35% were trash fishes. 31% of fishes were identified as marine/estuarine origin (migratory) and 05% were exotic fish species. Perciformes is the most predominated order, contributing to 41% of families. Among 43 families, the family Cyprinidae was the richest family from all localities of downstream, represented by 24% of fish species demonstrating a significant dominance in the number of species. A significant difference was observed for species abundance in between all sites, the maximum abundance species were found at first location RM having 115 species and minimum observed at the last station JS 56 genera. In the recorded Ichthyofauna, seven groups were found according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature status (IUCN), where a high species ratio was collected, in Least Concern (LC) having 94 species, 11 were found as not evaluated (NE), whereas 8 was identified as near threatened (NT), 1 was recorded as critically endangered (CR), 11 were collected as data deficient (DD), and while 8 was observed as vulnerable (VU) and 3 endangered (EN) species. Different diversity index has been used extensively in environmental studies to estimate the species richness and abundance of ecosystems outputs of their wellness; a positive environment (biodiversity rich) with species at RM had an environmental wellness and biodiversity levels of 4.566% while a negative control environment (biodiversity poor) on last station JS had an environmental wellness and biodiversity levels of 3.931%. The status of fish biodiversity and river has been found under serious threat. Due to the lower diversity of fishes, it became not only venerable for fish but also risky for fishermen. Necessary steps are recommended to protect the biodiversity by conducting further conservative research in this area.

Keywords: ichthyofaunal biodiversity, threatened species, diversity index, Indus River downstream

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Authors: Juliane Spaak

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A life-cycle assessment was performed, looking at seven retrofit projects in New Zealand using LCAQuickV3.5. The study found that retrofits save up to 80% of embodied carbon emissions for the structural elements compared to a new building. In other words, it is only a 20% carbon investment to transform and extend a building’s life. In addition, the systems were evaluated by looking at environmental impacts over the design life of these buildings and resilience using FEMA P58 and PACT software. With the increasing interest in Zero Carbon targets, significant changes in the building and construction sector are required. Emissions for buildings arise from both embodied carbon and operations. Based on the significant advancements in building energy technology, the focus is moving more toward embodied carbon, a large portion of which is associated with the structure. Since older buildings make up most of the real estate stock of our cities around the world, their reuse through structural retrofit and wider refurbishment plays an important role in extending the life of a building’s embodied carbon. New Zealand’s building owners and engineers have learned a lot about seismic issues following a decade of significant earthquakes. Recent earthquakes have brought to light the necessity to move away from constructing code-minimum structures that are designed for life safety but are frequently ‘disposable’ after a moderate earthquake event, especially in relation to a structure’s ability to minimize damage. This means weaker buildings sit as ‘carbon liabilities’, with considerably more carbon likely to be expended remediating damage after a shake. Renovating and retrofitting older assets plays a big part in reducing the carbon profile of the buildings sector, as breathing new life into a building’s structure is vastly more sustainable than the highest quality ‘green’ new builds, which are inherently more carbon-intensive. The demolition of viable older buildings (often including heritage buildings) is increasingly at odds with society’s desire for a lower carbon economy. Bringing seismic resilience and carbon best practice together in decision-making can open the door to commercially attractive outcomes, with retrofits that include structural and sustainability upgrades transforming the asset’s revenue generation. Across the global real estate market, tenants are increasingly demanding the buildings they occupy be resilient and aligned with their own climate targets. The relationship between seismic performance and ‘sustainable design’ has yet to fully mature, yet in a wider context is of profound consequence. A whole-of-life carbon perspective on a building means designing for the likely natural hazards within the asset’s expected lifespan, be that earthquake, storms, damage, bushfires, fires, and so on, ¬with financial mitigation (e.g., insurance) part, but not all, of the picture.

Keywords: retrofit, sustainability, earthquake, reuse, carbon, resilient

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Authors: Giovana Vesentini, Fernanda Piculo, Gabriela Marini, Debora Damasceno, Angelica Barbosa, Selma Martheus, Marilza Rudge

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Problem statement: Skeletal muscle is highly adaptable, muscle fiber composition and size can respond to a variety of stimuli, such physiologic, as pregnancy, and metabolic abnormalities, as Diabetes mellitus. This study aimed to analyze the effects of pregnancy-associated diabetes on the rectus abdominis muscle (RA), and to compare this changes in rats and women. Methods: Female Wistar rats were maintained under controlled conditions and distributed in Pregnant (P) and Long-term mild pregnant diabetic (LTMd) (n=3 r/group). Diabetes in rats was induced by streptozotocin (100mg/Kg, sc) on the first day of life, for a hyperglycemic state between 120-300 mg/dL in adult life. Female rats were mated overnight, at day 21 of pregnancy were anesthetized, and killed for the harvesting of maternal RA. Pregnant women who attended the Diabetes Prenatal Care Clinic of Botucatu Medical School were distributed in Pregnant non-diabetic (Pnd) and Gestational Diabetic (GDM) (n=3 w/group). The diagnosis of GDM was established according to ADA’s criteria (2016). The harvesting of RA was during the cesarean section. Transversal cross-sections of the RA of both women and rats were analyzed by transmission electron microscopy. All procedures were approved by the Ethics Committee on Animal Experiments of the Botucatu Medical School (Protocol Number 1003/2013) and by the Botucatu Medical School Ethical Committee for Human Research in Medical Sciences (CAAE: 41570815.0.0000.5411). Results: The photomicrographs of the RA of rats revealed disorganized Z lines, thinning sarcomeres, and a usual quantity of intermyofibrillar mitochondria in the P group. The LTMd group showed swollen sarcoplasmic reticulum, dilated T tubes and areas with sarcomere disruption. The ultrastructural analysis of Pnd non-diabetic women in the RA showed well-organized myofibrils forming intact sarcomeres, organized Z lines and a normal distribution of intermyofibrillar mitochondria. The GDM group revealed increase in intermyofibrillar mitochondria, areas with sarcomere disruption and increased lipid droplets. Conclusion: Pregnancy and diabetes induce adaptations in the ultrastructure of the rectus abdominis muscle for both women and rats, changing the architectural design of these tissues. However, in rats these changes are more severe maybe because, besides the high blood glucose levels, the quadrupedal animal may suffer an excessive mechanical tension during pregnancy by gravity. Probably, these findings may suggest that these alterations are a risk factor that contributes to the development of muscle dysfunction in women with GDM and may motivate treatment strategies in these patients.

Keywords: gestational diabetes, muscle dysfunction, pregnancy, rectus abdominis

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Authors: Marthese Azzopardi, Liberato Camilleri

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This research was performed to investigate the study habits and level of difficulty perceived by post-secondary students in Biology at Advanced-level topics after completing their first year of study. At the end of a two-year ‘sixth form’ course, Maltese students sit for the Matriculation and Secondary Education Certificate (MATSEC) Advanced-level biology exam as a requirement to pursue science-related studies at the University of Malta. The sample was composed of 23 students (16 taking Chemistry and seven taking some ‘Other’ subject at the Advanced Level). The cohort comprised seven males and 16 females. A questionnaire constructed by the authors, was answered anonymously during the last lecture at the end of the first year of study, in May 2016. The Chi square test revealed that gender plays no effect on the various study habits (c² (6) = 5.873, p = 0.438). ‘Reading both notes and textbooks’ was the most common method adopted by males (71.4%), whereas ‘Writing notes on each topic’ was that mostly used by females (81.3%). The Mann-Whitney U test showed no significant difference in the study habits of students and the mean assessment mark obtained at the end of the first year course (p = 0.231). Statistical difference was found with the One-ANOVA test when comparing the mean assessment mark obtained at the end of the first year course when students are clustered by their Secondary Education Certificate (SEC) grade (p < 0.001). Those obtaining a SEC grade of 2 and 3 got the highest mean assessment of 68.33% and 66.9%, respectively [SEC grading is 1-7, where 1 is the highest]. The Friedman test was used to compare the mean difficulty rating scores provided for the difficulty of each topic. The mean difficulty rating score ranges from 1 to 4, where the larger the mean rating score, the higher the difficulty. When considering the whole group of students, nine topics out of 21 were perceived as significantly more difficult than the other topics. Protein synthesis, DNA Replication and Biomolecules were the most difficult, in that order. The Mann-Whitney U test revealed that the perceived level of difficulty in comprehending Biomolecules is significantly lower for students taking Chemistry compared to those not choosing the subject (p = 0.018). Protein Synthesis was claimed as the most difficult by Chemistry students and Biomolecules by those not studying Chemistry. DNA Replication was the second most difficult topic perceived by both groups. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to examine the effect of gender on the perceived level of difficulty in comprehending various topics. It was found that females have significantly more difficulty in comprehending Biomolecules than males (p=0.039). Protein synthesis was perceived as the most difficult topic by males (mean difficulty rating score = 3.14), while Biomolecules, DNA Replication and Protein synthesis were of equal difficulty for females (mean difficulty rating score = 3.00). Males and females perceived DNA Replication as equally difficult (mean difficulty rating score = 3.00). Discovering the students’ study habits and perceived level of difficulty of specific topics is vital for the lecturer to offer guidance that leads to higher academic achievement.

Keywords: biology, perceived difficulty, post-secondary, study habits

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Authors: Sharon Millen, Sarah Miller, Laura Dunne, Clare McGeady, Laura Neeson

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This paper presents the findings from a randomised controlled trial (RCT) and process evaluation of the Lifestart parenting programme. Lifestart is a structured child-centred programme of information and practical activity for parents of children aged from birth to five years of age. It is delivered to parents in their own homes by trained, paid family visitors and it is offered to parents regardless of their social, economic or other circumstances. The RCT evaluated the effectiveness of the programme and the process evaluation documented programme delivery and included a qualitative exploration of parent and child outcomes. 424 parents and children participated in the RCT: 216 in the intervention group and 208 in the control group across the island of Ireland. Parent outcomes included: parental knowledge of child development, parental efficacy, stress, social support, parenting skills and embeddedness in the community. Child outcomes included cognitive, language and motor development and social-emotional and behavioural development. Both groups were tested at baseline (when children were less than 1 year old), mid-point (aged 3) and at post-test (aged 5). Data were collected during a home visit, which took two hours. The process evaluation consisted of interviews with parents (n=16 at baseline and end-point), and focus groups with Lifestart Coordinators (n=9) and Family Visitors (n=24). Quantitative findings from the RCT indicated that, compared to the control group, parents who received the Lifestart programme reported reduced parenting-related stress, increased knowledge of their child’s development, and improved confidence in their parenting role. These changes were statistically significant and consistent with the hypothesised pathway of change depicted in the logic model. There was no evidence of any change in parents’ embeddedness in the community. Although four of the five child outcomes showed small positive change for children who took part in the programme, these were not statistically significant and there is no evidence that the programme improves child cognitive and non-cognitive skills by immediate post-test. The qualitative process evaluation highlighted important challenges related to conducting trials of this magnitude and design in the general population. Parents reported that a key incentive to take part in study was receiving feedback from the developmental assessment, which formed part of the data collection. This highlights the potential importance of appropriate incentives in relation to recruitment and retention of participants. The interviews with intervention parents indicated that one of the first changes they experienced as a result of the Lifestart programme was increased knowledge and confidence in their parenting ability. The outcomes and pathways perceived by parents and described in the interviews are also consistent with the findings of the RCT and the theory of change underpinning the programme. This hypothesises that improvement in parental outcomes, arising as a consequence of the programme, mediate the change in child outcomes. Parents receiving the Lifestart programme reported great satisfaction with and commitment to the programme, with the role of the Family Visitor being identified as one of the key components of the programme.

Keywords: parent-child relationship, parental self-efficacy, parental stress, school readiness

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Authors: Harriet Bothwell, Lowri Evans, Kevin Jones

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Background: The University of Bristol provides all medical students the opportunity to undertake student selected components (SSCs) at multiple stages of the undergraduate programme. SSCs enable students to explore areas of interest that are not necessarily covered by the curriculum. Students are required to produce a written report and most use SSCs as an opportunity to undertake an audit or small research project. In 2013 Swindon Academy, based at the Great Western Hospital, offered eight students the opportunity of a global health SSC which included a two week trip to rural hospital in Uganda. This SSC has since expanded and in 2017 a total of 20 students had the opportunity to undertake small research projects at two hospitals in rural Uganda. 'Tomorrows Doctors' highlights the importance of understanding healthcare from a 'global perspective' and student feedback from previous SSCs suggests that self-assessed knowledge of global health increases as a result of this SSC. Through the most recent version of this SSC students had the opportunity to undertake projects in a wide range of specialties including paediatrics, palliative care, surgery and medical education. Methods: An anonymous online questionnaire was made available to students following the SSC. There was a response rate of 80% representing 16 out of the 20 students. This questionnaire surveyed students’ satisfaction and experience of the SSC including the level of academic, project and spiritual support provided as well as perceived challenges in completing the project and barriers to healthcare delivery in the low resource setting. This survey had multiple open questions allowing the collection of qualitative data. Further qualitative data was collected from the students’ project report. The suggested format included a reflection and all students completed these. All qualitative data underwent thematic analysis. Results: All respondents rated the overall experience of the SSC as 'good' or 'excellent'. Preliminary data suggest that students’ confidence in their knowledge of global health, diagnosis of tropical diseases and management of tropical diseases improved after completing this SSC. Thematic analysis of students' reflection is ongoing but suggests that students gain far more than improved knowledge of tropical diseases. Students reflect positively on having the opportunity to research in a low resource setting and feel that by completing these projects they will be 'useful' to the hospital. Several students reflect the stark contrast to healthcare delivery in the UK and recognise the 'privilege' of having a healthcare system that is free at the point of access. Some students noted the different approaches that clinicians in Uganda had to train in 'taking ownership' of their own learning. Conclusions: Students completing this SSC report increased knowledge of global health and tropical medicine. However, their reflections reveal much broader learning outcomes and demonstrate considerable insight in multiple topics including conducting research in the low resource setting, training and healthcare inequality.

Keywords: global health, medical education, student feedback, undergraduate

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Authors: Julia Gontar, Natalia Buderatskaya, Igor Ilyin, Olga Parnitskaya, Sergey Lavrynenko, Eduard Kapustin, Ekaterina Ilyina, Yana Lakhno

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Introduction: It is well known that oocytes obtained from older reproductive women have accumulated mitochondrial DNA mutations, which negatively affects the morphology of a developing embryo and may lead to the birth of a child with mitochondrial disease. Special techniques have been developed to allow a donor oocyte cytoplasmic transfer with the parents’ biological nuclear DNA retention. At the same time, it is important to understand whether the procedure affects the future embryonic chromosome sets as the nuclear DNA is the transfer subject in this new complex procedure. Material and Methods: From July 2015 to July 2016, the investigation was carried out in the Medical Centre IGR. 34 donor oocytes (group A) were used for the manipulation with the aim of donating cytoplasm: 21 oocytes were used for zygotes pronuclear transfer and oocytes 13 – for the spindle transfer. The mean age of the oocyte donors was 28.4±2.9 years. The procedure was performed using Nikon Ti Eclipse inverted microscope equipped with the micromanipulators Narishige system (Japan), Saturn 3 laser console (UK), Oosight imaging systems (USA). For the preimplantation genetic screening (PGS) blastocyst biopsy was performed, trophectoderm samples were diagnosed using fluorescent in situ hybridization on chromosomes 9, 13, 15, 16, 17, 18, 21, 22, X, Y. For comparison of morphological characteristics and euploidy, was chosen a group of embryos (group B) with the amount of 121 blastocysts obtained from 213 oocytes, which were gotten from the donor programs of assisted reproductive technologies (ART). Group B was not subjected to donor oocyte cytoplasmic transfer procedure and studied on the above mentioned chromosomes. Statistical analysis was carried out using the criteria t, x^2 at a significance levels p<0.05, p<0.01, p<0.001. Results: After the donor cytoplasm transfer process the amount of the third day developing embryos was 27 (79.4%). In this stage, the group B consisted of 189 (88.7%) developing embryos, and there was no statistically significant difference (SSD) between the two groups (p>0.05). After a comparative analysis of the morphological characteristics of the embryos on the fifth day, we also found no SSD among the studied groups (p>0.05): from 34 oocytes exposed to manipulation, 14 (41.2%) blastocysts was obtained, while the group B blastocyst yield was 56.8% (n=121) from 213 oocytes. The following results were obtained after PGS performing: in group A euploidy in studied chromosomes were 28.6%(n=4) blastocysts, whereas in group B this rate was 40.5%(n=49), 28.6%(n=4) and 21.5%(n=26) of mosaic embryos and 42.8%(n=6) and 38.0%(n=46) aneuploid blastocysts respectively were identified. None of these specified parameters had an SSD (p>0.05). But attention was drawn by the blastocysts in group A with identified mosaicism, which was chaotic without any cell having euploid chromosomal set, in contrast to the mosaic embryos in group B where identified chaotic mosaicism was only 2.5%(n=3). Conclusions: According to the obtained results, there is no direct procedural effect on the chromosome in embryos obtained following donor oocyte cytoplasmic transfer. Thus, the technology introduction will enhance the infertility treating effectiveness as well as avoiding having a child with mitochondrial disease.

Keywords: donor oocyte cytoplasmic transfer, embryos’ chromosome set, oocyte spindle transfer, pronuclear transfer

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Authors: Ryan A. Black, Stacey A. McCaffrey

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Over the past few decades, great strides have been made towards improving the science in the measurement of psychological constructs. Item Response Theory (IRT) has been the foundation upon which statistical models have been derived to increase both precision and accuracy in psychological measurement. These models are now being used widely to develop and refine tests intended to measure an individual's level of academic achievement, aptitude, and intelligence. Recently, the field of clinical psychology has adopted IRT models to measure psychopathological phenomena such as depression, anxiety, and addiction. Because advances in IRT measurement models are being made so rapidly across various fields, it has become quite challenging for psychologists and other behavioral scientists to keep abreast of the most recent developments, much less learn how to employ and decide which models are the most appropriate to use in their line of work. In the same vein, IRT measurement models vary greatly in complexity in several interrelated ways including but not limited to the number of item-specific parameters estimated in a given model, the function which links the expected response and the predictor, response option formats, as well as dimensionality. As a result, inferior methods (a.k.a. Classical Test Theory methods) continue to be employed in efforts to measure psychological constructs, despite evidence showing that IRT methods yield more precise and accurate measurement. To increase the use of IRT methods, this study endeavors to provide a comprehensive overview of binary IRT models; that is, measurement models employed on test data consisting of binary response options (e.g., correct/incorrect, true/false, agree/disagree). Specifically, this study will cover the most basic binary IRT model, known as the 1-parameter logistic (1-PL) model dating back to over 50 years ago, up until the most recent complex, 4-parameter logistic (4-PL) model. Binary IRT models will be defined mathematically and the interpretation of each parameter will be provided. Next, all four binary IRT models will be employed on two sets of data: 1. Simulated data of N=500,000 subjects who responded to four dichotomous items and 2. A pilot analysis of real-world data collected from a sample of approximately 770 subjects who responded to four self-report dichotomous items pertaining to emotional consequences to alcohol use. Real-world data were based on responses collected on items administered to subjects as part of a scale-development study (NIDA Grant No. R44 DA023322). IRT analyses conducted on both the simulated data and analyses of real-world pilot will provide a clear demonstration of how to construct, evaluate, and compare binary IRT measurement models. All analyses will be performed using the new IRT procedure in SAS 9.4. SAS code to generate simulated data and analyses will be available upon request to allow for replication of results.

Keywords: instrument development, item response theory, latent trait theory, psychometrics

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Authors: Cynthia Adlerstein

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Physical learning environment (PLE) has been considered, after family and educators, as the third teacher. There have been conflicting and converging viewpoints on the role of the physical dimensions of places to learn, in facilitating educational innovation and quality. Despite the different approaches, PLE has been widely recognized as a key factor in the quality of the learning experience , and in the levels of learning achievement in ECE . The conceptual frameworks of the field assume that PLE consists of a complex web of factors that shape the overall conditions for learning, and that much more interdisciplinary and complementary methodologies of research and development are required. Although the relevance of PLE attracts a broad international consensus, in Chile it remains under-researched and weakly regulated by public policy. Gaining deeper contextual understanding and more thoughtfully-designed recommendations require the use of innovative assessment tools that cross cultural and disciplinary boundaries to produce new hybrid approaches and improvements. When considering a PLE-based change process for ECE improvement, a central question is what dimensions, variables and indicators could allow a comprehensive assessment of PLE in Chilean kindergartens? Based on a grounded theory social justice inquiry, we adopted a mixed method design, that enabled a multivocal and interdisciplinary construction of data. By using in-depth interviews, discussion groups, questionnaires, and documental analysis, we elicited the PLE discourses of politicians, early childhood practitioners, experts in architectural design and ergonomics, ECE stakeholders, and 3 to 5 year olds. A constant comparison method enabled the construction of the dimensions, variables and indicators through which PLE assessment is possible. Subsequently, the instrument was applied in a sample of 125 early childhood classrooms, to test reliability (internal consistency) and validity (content and construct). As a result, an interdisciplinary and multivocal tool for assessing physical learning environments was constructed and validated, for Chilean kindergartens. The tool is structured upon 7 dimensions (wellbeing, flexible, empowerment, inclusiveness, symbolically meaningful, pedagogically intentioned, institutional management) 19 variables and 105 indicators that are assessed through observation and registration on a mobile app. The overall reliability of the instrument is .938 while the consistency of each dimension varies between .773 (inclusive) and .946 (symbolically meaningful). The validation process through expert opinion and factorial analysis (chi-square test) has shown that the dimensions of the assessment tool reflect the factors of physical learning environments. The constructed assessment tool for kindergartens highlights the significance of the physical environment in early childhood educational settings. The relevance of the instrument relies in its interdisciplinary approach to PLE and in its capability to guide innovative learning environments, based on educational habitability. Though further analysis are required for concurrent validation and standardization, the tool has been considered by practitioners and ECE stakeholders as an intuitive, accessible and remarkable instrument to arise awareness on PLE and on equitable distribution of learning opportunities.

Keywords: Chilean kindergartens, early childhood education, physical learning environment, third teacher

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Authors: Zhuang Yiwen

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The paper examines the challenges facing the Singapore healthcare system related to the tracking and traceability of medical devices. One of the major challenges identified is the lack of a standard coding system for medical devices, which makes it difficult to track them effectively. The paper suggests the use of the Unique Device Identifier (UDI) as a single standard for medical devices to improve tracking and reduce errors. The paper also explores the use of barcoding and image recognition to identify and document medical devices in nursing practices. In nursing practices, the use of barcodes for identifying medical devices is common. However, the information contained in these barcodes is often inconsistent, making it challenging to identify which segment contains the model identifier. Moreover, the use of barcodes may be improved with the use of UDI, but many subsidized accessories may still lack barcodes. The paper suggests that the readiness for UDI and barcode standardization requires standardized information, fields, and logic in electronic medical record (EMR), operating theatre (OT), and billing systems, as well as barcode scanners that can read various formats and selectively parse barcode segments. Nursing workflow and data flow also need to be taken into account. The paper also explores the use of image recognition, specifically the Tesseract OCR engine, to identify and document implants in public hospitals due to limitations in barcode scanning. The study found that the solution requires an implant information database and checking output against the database. The solution also requires customization of the algorithm, cropping out objects affecting text recognition, and applying adjustments. The solution requires additional resources and costs for a mobile/hardware device, which may pose space constraints and require maintenance of sterile criteria. The integration with EMR is also necessary, and the solution require changes in the user's workflow. The paper suggests that the long-term use of Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms (SNOMED CT) as a supporting terminology to improve clinical documentation and data exchange in healthcare. SNOMED CT provides a standardized way of documenting and sharing clinical information with respect to procedure, patient and device documentation, which can facilitate interoperability and data exchange. In conclusion, the paper highlights the challenges facing the Singapore healthcare system related to the tracking and traceability of medical devices. The paper suggests the use of UDI and barcode standardization to improve tracking and reduce errors. It also explores the use of image recognition to identify and document medical devices in nursing practices. The paper emphasizes the importance of standardized information, fields, and logic in EMR, OT, and billing systems, as well as barcode scanners that can read various formats and selectively parse barcode segments. These recommendations could help the Singapore healthcare system to improve tracking and traceability of medical devices and ultimately enhance patient safety.

Keywords: medical device tracking, unique device identifier, barcoding and image recognition, systematized nomenclature of medicine clinical terms

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Authors: Sayyed Mostafa Ahmadi, Neda Raeesi

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Background and Objectives: Cervical spondylosis is a common problem that affects the adult spine and is the most common cause of radiculopathy and myelopathy in older patients. Anterior discectomy and fusion is a well-known technique in degenerative cervical disc disease. However, one of the late undesirable complications is adjacent disc degeneration, which affects about 91% of patients in ten years. Many factors can be effective in causing this complication, but some are still debatable. Discovering these risk factors and eliminating them can improve the quality of life. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study. All patients who underwent anterior discectomy and fusion surgery in the neurosurgery ward of Imam Khomeini Hospital between 2013 and 2016 were evaluated. Their demographic information was collected. All patients were visited and examined for radiculopathy, myelopathy, and muscular force. At the same visit, all patients were asked to have a facelift, and neck profile, as well as a neck MRI(General Tesla 3). Preoperative graphs were used to measure the diameter of the cervical canal(Pavlov ratio) and to evaluate sagittal alignment(Cobb Angle). Preoperative MRI of patients was reviewed for anterior and posterior longitudinal ligament calcification. Result: In this study, 57 patients were studied. The mean age of patients was 50.63 years, and 49.1% were male. Only 3.5% of patients had anterior and posterior longitudinal ligament calcification. Symptomatic ASD was observed in 26.6%. The X-rays and MRIs showed evidence of 80.7% radiological ASD. Among patients who underwent one-level surgery, 20% had symptomatic ASD, but among patients who underwent two-level surgery, the rate of ASD was 50%.In other words, the higher the number of surfaces that are operated and fused, the higher the probability of symptomatic ASD(P-value <0.05). The X-rays and MRIs showed 80.7% of radiological ASD. Among patients who underwent surgery at one level, 78% had radiological ASD, and this number was 92% among patients who underwent two-level surgery(P-value> 0.05). Demographic variables such as age, sex, height, weight, and BMI did not have a significant effect on the incidence of radiological ASD(P-value> 0.05), but sex and height were two influential factors on symptomatic ASD(P-value <0.05). Other related variables such as family history, smoking and exercise also have no significant effect(P-value> 0.05). Radiographic variables such as Pavlov ratio and sagittal alignment were also unaffected by the incidence of radiological and symptomatic ASD(P-value> 0.05). The number of surgical surfaces and the incidence of anterior and posterior longitudinal ligament calcification before surgery also had no statistically significant effect(P-value> 0.05). In the study of the ability of the neck to move in different directions, none of these variables are statistically significant in the two groups with radiological and symptomatic ASD and the non-affected group(P-value> 0.05). Conclusion: According to the findings of this study, this disease is considered to be a multifactorial disease. The incidence of radiological ASD is much higher than symptomatic ASD (80.7% vs. 26.3%) and sex, height and number of fused surfaces are the only factors influencing the incidence of symptomatic ASD and no variable influences radiological ASD.

Keywords: risk factors, anterior neck disectomy and fusion, adjucent segment degeneration, complication

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Authors: Alan Walsh, Peter Walker

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Differences in commercial, professional and personal cultural traditions between western consultants and project sponsors in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region are potentially significant in the workplace, and this can impact on project outcomes. These cultural differences can, for example, result in conflict amongst senior managers, which can negatively impact the megaproject. New entrants to the GCC often experience ‘culture shock’ as they attempt to integrate into their unfamiliar environments. Megaprojects are unique ventures with individual project characteristics, which need to be considered when managing their associated risks. Megaproject research to date has mostly ignored the significance of the absence of cultural congruence in the GCC, which is surprising considering that there are large volumes of megaprojects in various stages of construction in the GCC. An initial step to dealing with cultural issues is to acknowledge culture as a significant risk factor (SRF). This paper seeks to understand the criticality for western consultants to address these risks. It considers the cultural barriers that exist between GCC sponsors and western consultants and examines the cultural distance between the key actors. Initial findings suggest the presence to a certain extent of ethnocentricity. Other cultural clashes arise out of a lack of appreciation of the customs, practices and traditions of ‘the Other’, such as the need for avoiding public humiliation and the hierarchal significance rankings. The concept and significance of cultural shock as part of the integration process for new arrivals are considered. Culture shock describes the state of anxiety and frustration resulting from the immersion in a culture distinctly different from one's own. There are potentially substantial project risks associated with underestimating the process of cultural integration. This paper examines two distinct but intertwined issues: the societal and professional culture differences associated with expatriate assignments. A case study examines the cultural congruences between GCC sponsors and American, British and German consultants, over a ten-year cycle. This provides indicators as to which nationalities encountered the most profound cultural issues and the nature of these. GCC megaprojects are typically intensive fast track demanding ventures, where consultant turnover is high. The study finds that building trust-filled relationships is key to successful project team integration and therefore, to successful megaproject execution. Findings indicate that both professional and social inclusion processes have steep learning curves. Traditional risk management practice is to approach any uncertainty in a structured way to mitigate the potential impact on project outcomes. This research highlights cultural risk as a significant factor in the management of GCC megaprojects. These risks arising from high staff turnover typically include loss of project knowledge, delays to the project, cost and disruption in replacing staff. This paper calls for cultural risk to be recognised as an SRF, as the first step to developing risk management strategies, and to reduce staff turnover for western consultants in GCC megaprojects.

Keywords: western consultants in megaprojects, national culture impacts on GCC megaprojects, significant risk factors in megaprojects, professional culture in megaprojects

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Authors: Chandanee Wasana Kalansooriya

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Dietary behaviour is a crucial factor affecting diabetes control. With increasing rates of diabetes prevalence in Asian countries, examining their dietary patterns, which are largely based on rice, is timely required. It has been identified that higher consumption of some rice varieties is associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes. Although diabetes patients are advised to consume healthier rice varieties, which contains low glycemic, several conditions, one of which food insecurity, make them difficult to preserve those healthy dietary guidelines. Hence this study tries to investigate how food security affects on making right decisions of rice consumption within diabetes affected households using a sample from Sri Lanka, a country which rice considered as the staple food and records the highest diabetes prevalence rate in South Asia. The study uses data from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2016, a nationally representative sample conducted by the Department of Census and Statistics, Sri Lanka. The survey used a two-stage stratified sampling method to cover different sectors and districts of the country and collected micro-data on demographics, health, income and expenditures of different categories. The study uses data from 2547 households which consist of one or more diabetes patients, based on the self-recorded health status. The Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS), which constructed based on twelve food groups, is used to measure the level of food security. Rice is categorized into three groups according to their Glycemic Index (GI), high GI, medium GI and low GI, and the likelihood and impact made by food security on each rice consumption categories are estimated using a Two-part Model. The shares of each rice categories out of total rice consumption is considered as the dependent variable to exclude the endogeneity issue between rice consumption and the HDDS. The results indicate that the consumption of medium GI rice is likely to increase with the increasing household food security, but low GI varieties are not. Households in rural and estate sectors are less likely and Tamil ethnic group is more likely to consume low GI rice varieties. Further, an increase in food security significantly decreases the consumption share of low GI rice, while it increases the share of medium GI varieties. The consumption share of low GI rice is largely affected by the ethnic variability. The effects of food security on the likelihood of consuming high GI rice varieties and changing its shares are statistically insignificant. Accordingly, the study concludes that a higher level of food security does not ensure diabetes patients are consuming healthy rice varieties or reducing consumption of unhealthy varieties. Hence policy attention must be directed towards educating people for making healthy dietary choices. Further, the study provides a room for further studies as it reveals considerable ethnic and sectorial differences in making healthy dietary decisions.

Keywords: diabetes, food security, glycemic index, rice consumption

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Authors: Daniela Manila Bianchi, Samantha Lupi, Elisa Barcucci, Sandra Fragassi, Clara Tramuta, Lucia Decastelli

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Introduction: The undeclared allergens detection in food products plays a fundamental role in the safety of the allergic consumer. The protection of allergic consumers is guaranteed, in Europe, by Regulation (EU) No 1169/2011 of the European Parliament, which governs the consumer's right to information and identifies 14 food allergens to be mandatorily indicated on food labels: among these, an egg is included. An egg can be present as an ingredient or as contamination in raw and cooked products. The main allergen egg proteins are ovomucoid, ovalbumin, lysozyme, and ovotransferrin. This study presents the results of a survey conducted in Northern Italy aimed at detecting the presence of undeclared egg proteins in food matrices in the latest ten years (2011-2021). Method: In the period January 2011 - October 2021, a total of 1205 different types of food matrices (ready-to-eat, meats, and meat products, bakery and pastry products, baby foods, food supplements, pasta, fish and fish products, preparations for soups and broths) were delivered to Food Control Laboratory of Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale of Piemonte Liguria and Valle d’Aosta to be analyzed as official samples in the frame of Regional Monitoring Plan of Food Safety or in the contest of food poisoning. The laboratory is ISO 17025 accredited, and since 2019, it has represented the National Reference Centre for the detection in foods of substances causing food allergies or intolerances (CreNaRiA). All samples were stored in the laboratory according to food business operator instructions and analyzed within the expiry date for the detection of undeclared egg proteins. Analyses were performed with RIDASCREEN®FAST Ei/Egg (R-Biopharm ® Italia srl) kit: the method was internally validated and accredited with a Limit of Detection (LOD) equal to 2 ppm (mg/Kg). It is a sandwich enzyme immunoassay for the quantitative analysis of whole egg powder in foods. Results: The results obtained through this study showed that egg proteins were found in 2% (n. 28) of food matrices, including meats and meat products (n. 16), fish and fish products (n. 4), bakery and pastry products (n. 4), pasta (n. 2), preparations for soups and broths (n.1) and ready-to-eat (n. 1). In particular, in 2011 egg proteins were detected in 5% of samples, in 2012 in 4%, in 2013, 2016 and 2018 in 2%, in 2014, 2015 and 2019 in 3%. No egg protein traces were detected in 2017, 2020, and 2021. Discussion: Food allergies occur in the Western World in 2% of adults and up to 8% of children. Allergy to eggs is one of the most common food allergies in the pediatrics context. The percentage of positivity obtained from this study is, however, low. The trend over the ten years has been slightly variable, with comparable data.

Keywords: allergens, food, egg proteins, immunoassay

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Authors: Kumari Sweta, Ajanta Goswami, Abhilasha Dixit

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Landslide is a geomorphic process that plays an essential role in the evolution of the hill-slope and long-term landscape evolution. But its abrupt nature and the associated catastrophic forces of the process can have undesirable socio-economic impacts, like substantial economic losses, fatalities, ecosystem, geomorphologic and infrastructure disturbances. The estimated fatality rate is approximately 1person /100 sq. Km and the average economic loss is more than 550 crores/year in the Himalayan belt due to landslides. This study presents a comparative performance of a statistical bivariate method and a machine learning technique for landslide susceptibility mapping in and around Dharamshala, Himachal Pradesh. The final produced landslide susceptibility maps (LSMs) with better accuracy could be used for land-use planning to prevent future losses. Dharamshala, a part of North-western Himalaya, is one of the fastest-growing tourism hubs with a total population of 30,764 according to the 2011 census and is amongst one of the hundred Indian cities to be developed as a smart city under PM’s Smart Cities Mission. A total of 209 landslide locations were identified in using high-resolution linear imaging self-scanning (LISS IV) data. The thematic maps of parameters influencing landslide occurrence were generated using remote sensing and other ancillary data in the GIS environment. The landslide causative parameters used in the study are slope angle, slope aspect, elevation, curvature, topographic wetness index, relative relief, distance from lineaments, land use land cover, and geology. LSMs were prepared using information value (Info Val), and Fuzzy Expert System (FES) models. Info Val is a statistical bivariate method, in which information values were calculated as the ratio of the landslide pixels per factor class (Si/Ni) to the total landslide pixel per parameter (S/N). Using this information values all parameters were reclassified and then summed in GIS to obtain the landslide susceptibility index (LSI) map. The FES method is a machine learning technique based on ‘mean and neighbour’ strategy for the construction of fuzzifier (input) and defuzzifier (output) membership function (MF) structure, and the FR method is used for formulating if-then rules. Two types of membership structures were utilized for membership function Bell-Gaussian (BG) and Trapezoidal-Triangular (TT). LSI for BG and TT were obtained applying membership function and if-then rules in MATLAB. The final LSMs were spatially and statistically validated. The validation results showed that in terms of accuracy, Info Val (83.4%) is better than BG (83.0%) and TT (82.6%), whereas, in terms of spatial distribution, BG is best. Hence, considering both statistical and spatial accuracy, BG is the most accurate one.

Keywords: bivariate statistical techniques, BG and TT membership structure, fuzzy expert system, information value method, machine learning technique

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Authors: Katerina Antoniou

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When examining conflicts around the world, it is evident that the majority of intractable conflicts are steeped in identity. Identity seems to be not only a causal variable for conflict, but also a catalytic parameter for the process of reconciliation that follows ceasefire. This paper focuses on the process of identity securitization that occurs between rival groups of heterogeneous collective identities – ethnic, national or religious – as well as on the relationship between identity securitization and the ability of the groups involved to reconcile. Are securitized identities obstacles to the process of reconciliation, able to hinder any prospects of peace? If the level to which an identity is securitized is catalytic to a conflict’s discourse and settlement, then which factors act as indicators of identity de-securitization? The level of an in-group’s identity securitization can be estimated through a number of indicators, one of which is narrative. The stories, views and stances each in-group adopts in relation to its history of conflict and relation with their rival out-group can clarify whether that specific in-group feels victimized and threatened or safe and ready to reconcile. Accordingly, this study discusses identity securitization through narrative in relation to intractable conflicts. Are there conflicts around the world that, despite having been identified as intractable, stagnated or insoluble, show signs of identity de-securitization through narrative? This inquiry uses the case of the Cyprus conflict and its partitioned societies to present official narratives from the two communities and assess whether these narratives have transformed, indicating a less securitized in-group identity for the Greek and Turkish Cypriots. Specifically, the study compares the official historical overviews presented by each community’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs website and discusses the extent to which the two official narratives present a securitized collective identity. In addition, the study will observe whether official stances by the two communities – as adopted by community leaders – have transformed to depict less securitization over time. Additionally, the leaders’ reflection of popular opinion is evaluated through recent opinion polls from each community. Cyprus is currently experiencing renewed optimism for reunification, with the leaders of its two communities engaging in rigorous negotiations, and with rumors calling for a potential referendum for reunification to be taking place even as early as within 2016. Although leaders’ have shown a shift in their rhetoric and have moved away from narratives of victimization, this is not the case for the official narratives used by their respective ministries of foreign affairs. The study’s findings explore whether this narrative inconsistency proves that Cyprus is transitioning towards reunification, or whether the leaders are risking sending a securitized population to the polls to reject a potential reunification. More broadly, this study suggests that in the event that intractable conflicts might be moving towards viable peace, in-group narratives--official narratives in particular--can act as indicators of the extent to which rival entities have managed to reconcile.

Keywords: conflict, identity, narrative, reconciliation

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Authors: Aarti M. Shetty, Estela Davoodi, Subrata Gangooly, Anita Rao-Coppisetty

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Background: Testing Patency of Fallopian Tubes is among one of the several protocols for investigating Subfertile Couples. Both, Hysterosalpingogram (HSG) and Laparoscopy and dye test have been used as Tubal patency test for several years, with well-known limitation. Hysterosalpingo Contrast Sonography (HyCoSy) can be used as an alternative tool to HSG, to screen patency of Fallopian tubes, with an advantage of being non-ionising, and also, use of transvaginal scan to diagnose pelvic pathology. Aim: To determine the indication and analyse the performance of transvaginal scan and HyCoSy in Broomfield Hospital. Methods: We retrospectively analysed fertility workup of 282 women, who attended HyCoSy clinic at our institution from January 2015 to June 2016. An Audit proforma was designed, to aid data collection. Data was collected from patient notes and electronic records, which included patient demographics; age, parity, type of subfertility (primary or secondary), duration of subfertility, past medical history and base line investigation (hormone profile and semen analysis). Findings of the transvaginal scan, HyCoSy and Laparoscopy were also noted. Results: The most common indication for referral were as a part of primary fertility workup on couples who had failure to conceive despite intercourse for a year, other indication for referral were recurrent miscarriage, history of ectopic pregnancy, post reversal of sterilization(vasectomy and tuboplasty), Post Gynaecology surgery(Loop excision, cone biopsy) and amenorrhea. Basic Fertility workup showed 34% men had abnormal semen analysis. HyCoSy was successfully completed in 270 (95%) women using ExEm foam and Transvaginal Scan. Of the 270 patients, 535 tubes were examined in total. 495/535 (93%) tubes were reported as patent, 40/535 (7.5%) tubes were reported as blocked. A total of 17 (6.3%) patients required laparoscopy and dye test after HyCoSy. In these 17 patients, 32 tubes were examined under laparoscopy, and 21 tubes had findings similar to HyCoSy, with a concordance rate of 65%. In addition to this, 41 patients had some form of pelvic pathology (endometrial polyp, fibroid, cervical polyp, fibroid, bicornuate uterus) detected during transvaginal scan, who referred to corrective surgeries after attending HyCoSy Clinic. Conclusion: Our audit shows that HyCoSy and Transvaginal scan can be a reliable screening test for low risk women. Furthermore, it has competitive diagnostic accuracy to HSG in identifying tubal patency, with an additional advantage of screening for pelvic pathology. With addition of 3D Scan, pulse Doppler and other non-invasive imaging modality, HyCoSy may potentially replace Laparoscopy and chromopertubation in near future.

Keywords: hysterosalpingo contrast sonography (HyCoSy), transvaginal scan, tubal infertility, tubal patency test

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Authors: Neelam Taneja, Abhishek Mewara, Ajay Kumar

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Multidrug resistant shigellae have emerged as a therapeutic challenge in India. At our 2000 bed tertiary care referral centre in Chandigarh, North India, which caters to a large population of 7 neighboring states, antibiotic resistance in Shigella is being constantly monitored. Shigellae are isolated from 3 to 5% of all stool samples. In 1990 nalidixic acid was the drug of choice as 82%, and 63% of shigellae were resistant to ampicillin and cotrimoxazole respectively. Nalidixic acid resistance emerged in 1992 and rapidly increased from 6% during 1994-98 to 86% by the turn of 21st century. In the 1990s, the WHO recommended ciprofloxacin as the drug of choice for empiric treatment of shigellosis in view of the existing high level resistance to agents like chloramphenicol, ampicillin, cotrimoxazole and nalidixic acid. First resistance to ciprofloxacin in S. flexneri at our centre appeared in 2000 and rapidly rose to 46% in 2007 (MIC>4mg/L). In between we had an outbreak of ciprofloxacin resistant S.dysenteriae serotype 1 in 2003. Therapeutic failures with ciprofloxacin occurred with both ciprofloxacin-resistant S. dysenteriae and ciprofloxacin-resistant S. flexneri. The severity of illness was more with ciprofloxacin-resistant strains. Till 2000, elsewhere in the world ciprofloxacin resistance in S. flexneri was sporadic and uncommon, though resistance to co-trimoxazole and ampicillin was common and in some areas resistance to nalidixic acid had also emerged. Fluoroquinolones due to extensive use and misuse for many other illnesses in our region are thus no longer the preferred group of drugs for managing shigellosis in India. WHO presently recommends ceftriaxone and azithromycin as alternative drugs to fluoroquinolone-resistant shigellae, however, overreliance on this group of drugs also seems to soon become questionable considering the emerging cephalosporin-resistant shigellae. We found 15.1% of S. flexneri isolates collected over a period of 9 years (2000-2009) resistant to at least one of the third-generation cephalosporins (ceftriaxone/cefotaxime). The first isolate showing ceftriaxone resistance was obtained in 2001, and we have observed an increase in number of isolates resistant to third generation cephalosporins in S. flexneri 2005 onwards. This situation has now become a therapeutic challenge in our region. The MIC values for Shigella isolates revealed a worrisome rise for ceftriaxone (MIC90:12 mg/L) and cefepime (MIC90:8 mg/L). MIC values for S. dysenteriae remained below 1 mg/L for ceftriaxone, however for cefepime, the MIC90 has raised to 4 mg/L. These infections caused by ceftriaxone-resistant S. flexneri isolates were successfully treated by azithromycin at our center. Most worrisome development in the present has been the emergence of DSA(Decreased susceptibility to azithromycin) which surfaced in 2001 and has increased from 4.3% till 2011 to 34% thereafter. We suspect plasmid-mediated resistance as we detected qnrS1-positive Shigella for the first time from the Indian subcontinent in 2 strains from 2010, indicating a relatively new appearance of this PMQR determinant among Shigella in India. This calls for a continuous and strong surveillance of antibiotic resistance across the country. The prevention of shigellosis by developing cost-effective vaccines is desirable as it will substantially reduce the morbidity associated with diarrhoea in the country

Keywords: Shigella, antimicrobial, resistance, India

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Authors: A. M. Ferrari, L. Volpi, M. Pini, C. Siligardi, F. E. Garcia Muina, D. Settembre Blundo

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A long tradition in the ceramic manufacturing since the 18th century, primarily due to the availability of raw materials and an efficient transport system, let to the birth and development of the Italian ceramic tiles district that nowadays represents a reference point for this sector even at global level. This economic growth has been coupled to attention towards environmental sustainability issues throughout various initiatives undertaken over the years at the level of the production sector, such as certification activities and sustainability policies. In this way, starting from an evaluation of the sustainability in all its aspects, the present work aims to develop a benchmarking helping both producers and consumers. In the present study, throughout the Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA) framework, the sustainability has been assessed in all its dimensions: environmental with the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), economic with the Life Cycle Costing (LCC) and social with the Social Life Cycle Assessment (S-LCA). The annual district production of stoneware tiles during the 2016 reference year has been taken as reference flow for all the three assessments, and the system boundaries cover the entire life cycle of the tiles, except for the LCC for which only the production costs have been considered at the moment. In addition, a preliminary method for the evaluation of local and indoor emissions has been introduced in order to assess the impact due to atmospheric emissions on both people living in the area surrounding the factories and workers. The Life Cycle Assessment results, obtained from IMPACT 2002+ modified assessment method, highlight that the manufacturing process is responsible for the main impact, especially because of atmospheric emissions at a local scale, followed by the distribution to end users, the installation and the ordinary maintenance of the tiles. With regard to the economic evaluation, both the internal and external costs have been considered. For the LCC, primary data from the analysis of the financial statements of Italian ceramic companies show that the higher cost items refer to expenses for goods and services and costs of human resources. The analysis of externalities with the EPS 2015dx method attributes the main damages to the distribution and installation of the tiles. The social dimension has been investigated with a preliminary approach by using the Social Hotspots Database, and the results indicate that the most affected damage categories are health and safety and labor rights and decent work. This study shows the potential of the LCSA framework applied to an industrial sector; in particular, it can be a useful tool for building a comprehensive benchmark for the sustainability of the ceramic industry, and it can help companies to actively integrate sustainability principles into their business models.

Keywords: benchmarking, Italian ceramic industry, life cycle sustainability assessment, porcelain stoneware tiles

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Authors: Ankur Mehra, M. V. Shivaani

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With increasing digitization, the world is coming closer, not only in terms of informational flow but also in terms of capital flows. And micro-finance institutions (MFIs) have perfectly leveraged this digital world by resorting to the innovative digital social peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms, such as, Kiva. These digital P2P platforms bring together micro-borrowers and lenders from across the world. The main objective of this study is to understand the funding preferences of social investors primarily from developed countries (such as US, UK, Australia), lending money to borrowers from rural India at zero interest rates through Kiva. Further, the objective of this study is to increase awareness about such a platform among various MFIs engaged in providing micro-loans to those in need. The sample comprises of India based micro-loan applications posted by various MFIs on Kiva lending platform over the period Sept 2012-March 2016. Out of 7,359 loans, 256 loans failed to get funded by social investors. On an average a micro-loan with 30 days to expiry gets fully funded in 7,593 minutes or 5.27 days. 62% of the loans raised on Kiva are related to livelihood, 32.5% of the loans are for funding basic necessities and balance 5.5% loans are for funding education. 47% of the loan applications have more than one borrower; while, currency exchange risk is on the social lenders for 45% of the loans. Controlling for the loan amount and loan tenure, the analyses suggest that those loan applications where the number of borrowers is more than one have a lower chance of getting funded as compared to the loan applications made by a sole borrower. Such group applications also take more time to get funded. Further, loan application by a solo woman not only has a higher chance of getting funded but as such get funded faster. The results also suggest that those loan applications which are supported by an MFI that has a religious affiliation, not only have a lower chance of getting funded, but also take longer to get funded as compared to the loan applications posted by secular MFIs. The results do not support cross-border currency risk to be a factor in explaining the determinants of loan funding. Finally, analyses suggest that loans raised for the purpose of earning livelihood and education have a higher chance of getting funded and such loans get funded faster as compared to the loans applied for purposes related to basic necessities such a clothing, housing, food, health, and personal use. The results are robust to controls for ‘MFI dummy’ and ‘year dummy’. The key implication from this study is that global social investors tend to develop an emotional connect with single woman borrowers and consequently they get funded faster Hence, MFIs should look for alternative ways for funding loans whose purpose is to meet basic needs; while, more loans related to livelihood and education should be raised via digital platforms.

Keywords: P2P lending, social investing, fintech, financial inclusion

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Authors: M. Das, B. P. Sarma, G. Ahmed

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Human diet can be a major source of antioxidants. Poly¬phenols, which are organic compounds present in the regular human diet, have good antioxidant property. Most of the diseases are detected too late and that cause irre¬versible damage to the body. Therefore food that forms the natural source of antioxidants can prevent free radi¬cals from damaging our body tissues. Dillenia indica and Garcinia penducalata are two major fruits, easily available in Assam, North eastern Indian state. In the present study, the in vitro antioxi¬dant properties of the fruits of these plants are compared as the decoction of these fruits form a major part of Assamese cuisine. DPPH free radical scavenging activity of the methanol, petroleum ether and water extracts of G. penducalata and D. indica fruits were carried out by the methods of Cotelle A et al. (1996). Different concentrations ranging from 10–110 ug/ml of the extracts were added to 100 uM of DPPH (2,2, Diphenyl-2-picryl hydrazyl) and the absor¬bance was read at 517 nm after incubation. Ascorbic acid was used as the standard. Different concentrations of the methanol, petroleum ether and water extracts of G. penducalata and D. indica fruits were mixed with sodium nitroprusside and incubated. Griess reagent was added to the mixtures and their optical density was read at 546 nm following the method of Marcocci et al. (1994). Ascorbic acid was used as the standard. In order to find the scavenging activity of the extracts against hydroxyl radicals, the method of Kunchandy & Ohkawa (1990) was followed.The superoxide scavenging activity of the methanol, petroleum ether and water extracts of the fruits was deter¬mined by the method of Robak & Gryglewski (1998).Six replicates were maintained in each of the experiments and their SEM was evaluated based on which, non linear regres¬sion (curve fit), exponential growth were derived to calculate the IC50 values of the SAWE and standard compounds. All the statistical analyses were done by using paired t test. The hydroxyl radical scavenging activity of the various extracts of D. indica exhibited IC50 values < 110 ug/ml concentration, the scavenging activity of the extracts of G. penducalata was surprisingly>110 ug/ml.Similarly the oxygen free radical scavenging activity of the different extracts of D. indica exhibited an IC50 value of <110 ug/ml but the methanolic extract of the same exhib¬ited a better free radical scavenging activity compared to that of vitamin C. The methanolic extract of D. indica exhibited an IC50 value better than that of vitamin C. The DPPH scavenging activities of the various extracts of D. indica and G. penducalata were <110 ug/ml but the methanolic extract of D. indica exhibited an IC50 value bet¬ter than that of vitaminc C.The higher amounts of phenolic content in the methanolic extract of D. indica might be one of the major causes for its enhanced in vitro antioxidant activity.The present study concludes that Dillenia indica and Garcinia penducalata both possesses anti oxidant activi¬ties. The anti oxidant activity of Dillenia indica is superior to that of Garcinia penducalata due to its higher phenolic content

Keywords: antioxidants, free radicals, phenolic, scavenging

Procedia PDF Downloads 570

Authors: Kiana Taheri

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Rural tourism has garnered significant attention as a catalyst for rural development and sustainability, particularly in regions like Tuscany, Italy, where the convergence of cultural heritage, picturesque landscapes, and agricultural traditions provides a fertile ground for tourism activities. This paper investigates the pivotal role of women entrepreneurs in driving sustainable rural tourism development, with a specific focus on Tuscany. Drawing upon a synthesis of literature on rural tourism, entrepreneurship, and gender studies, this research offers insights into how women entrepreneurs contribute to the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of rural tourism in Tuscany. The conceptual framework of this study is rooted in the evolving landscape of rural development, shaped by shifting paradigms in agricultural policies, such as the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union. This framework underscores the transition from traditional agrarian economies to dynamic rural tourism destinations characterized by a consumer-centric approach and a focus on sustainable development. Against this backdrop, the study delves into the multifaceted contributions of women entrepreneurs within the rural tourism sector. Central to the analysis is the recognition of rural tourism as a nexus of social, cultural, economic, and environmental interactions, wherein women entrepreneurs play a pivotal role in leveraging local resources, preserving cultural heritage, and fostering community engagement. By capitalizing on their unique perspectives, skills, and networks, women entrepreneurs drive innovation, diversification, and inclusivity within the tourism sector, thereby enhancing its resilience and long-term viability. Moreover, the study highlights the symbiotic relationship between rural tourism development and women's empowerment, as evidenced by the increasing prominence of women entrepreneurs in Tuscany's rural economy. Through their leadership roles in small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and agritourism ventures, women entrepreneurs not only contribute to economic growth but also challenge traditional gender norms and empower local communities. A key empirical focus of this research is a comprehensive case study of Tuscany, renowned for its successful rural tourism model and vibrant entrepreneurial ecosystem. Through qualitative interviews, surveys, and archival analysis, the study elucidates the strategies, challenges, and impacts of women entrepreneurs on sustainable rural tourism development in Tuscany. By examining the experiences of women entrepreneurs across diverse sectors of rural tourism, including hospitality, gastronomy, and cultural heritage, the study offers nuanced insights into their contributions to regional development and empowerment. In conclusion, this research contributes to the burgeoning scholarship on rural tourism, entrepreneurship, and gender studies by shedding light on the transformative role of women entrepreneurs in driving sustainable development agendas in rural areas. By elucidating the interplay between gender dynamics, entrepreneurial activities, and tourism development, this study seeks to inform policy interventions and strategic initiatives aimed at fostering inclusive and sustainable rural tourism ecosystems.

Keywords: rural tourism, women empowerment, entrepreneurship, sustainable development, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)

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Authors: Samia Elfekih, Wee Tek Tay, Karl Gordon, Paul De Barro

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Invasive species represent an increasing threat to food biosecurity, causing significant economic losses in agricultural systems. An example is the sweet potato whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, which is a complex of morphologically indistinguishable species causing average annual global damage estimated at US$2.4 billion. The Bemisia complex represents an interesting model for evolutionary studies because of their extensive distribution and potential for invasiveness and population expansion. Within this complex, two species, Middle East-Asia Minor 1 (MEAM1) and Mediterranean (MED) have invaded well beyond their home ranges whereas others, such as Indian Ocean (IO) and Australia (AUS), have not. In order to understand why some Bemisia species have become invasive, genome-wide sequence scans were used to estimate population dynamics over time and relate these to climate. The Bayesian Skyline Plot (BSP) method as implemented in BEAST was used to infer the historical effective population size. In order to overcome sampling bias, the populations were combined based on geographical origin. The datasets used for this particular analysis are genome-wide SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) called separately in each of the following groups: Sub-Saharan Africa (Burkina Faso), Europe (Spain, France, Greece and Croatia), USA (Arizona), Mediterranean-Middle East (Israel, Italy), Middle East-Central Asia (Turkmenistan, Iran) and Reunion Island. The non-invasive ‘AUS’ species endemic to Australia was used as an outgroup. The main findings of this study show that the BSP for the Sub-Saharan African MED population is different from that observed in MED populations from the Mediterranean Basin, suggesting evolution under a different set of environmental conditions. For MED, the effective size of the African (Burkina Faso) population showed a rapid expansion ≈250,000-310,000 years ago (YA), preceded by a period of slower growth. The European MED populations (i.e., Spain, France, Croatia, and Greece) showed a single burst of expansion at ≈160,000-200,000 YA. The MEAM1 populations from Israel and Italy and the ones from Iran and Turkmenistan are similar as they both show the earlier expansion at ≈250,000-300,000 YA. The single IO population lacked the latter expansion but had the earlier one. This pattern is shared with the Sub-Saharan African (Burkina Faso) MED, suggesting IO also faced a similar history of environmental change, which seems plausible given their relatively close geographical distributions. In conclusion, populations within the invasive species MED and MEAM1 exhibited signatures of population expansion lacking in non-invasive species (IO and AUS) during the Pleistocene, a geological epoch marked by repeated climatic oscillations with cycles of glacial and interglacial periods. These expansions strongly suggested the potential of some Bemisia species’ genomes to affect their adaptability and invasiveness.

Keywords: whitefly, RADseq, invasive species, SNP, climate change

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: Jose CanIzares

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In the last decades, resilience has received much attention in relation to understanding and managing new forms of risk, especially in the context of urban adaptation to climate change. There are abundant concerns, however, on how to best interpret resilience and related ideas, and on whether they can guide ethically appropriate risk-related or adaptation efforts. Narrative creation and framing are critical steps in shaping public discussion and policy in large-scale interventions, since they favor or inhibit early decision and interpretation habits, which can be morally sensitive and then become persistent on time. This article adds to such framing process by contesting a conventional narrative on resilience and offering an alternative one. Conventionally, present ideas on resilience are traced to the work of ecologist C. S. Holling, especially to his article Resilience and Stability in Ecosystems. This article is usually portrayed as a contribution of complex systems thinking to theoretical ecology, where Holling appeals to resilience in order to challenge received views on ecosystem stability and the diversity-stability hypothesis. In this regard, resilience is construed as a “purely scientific”, precise and descriptive concept, denoting a complex property that allows ecosystems to persist, or to maintain functions, after disturbance. Yet, these formal features of resilience supposedly changed with Holling’s later work in the 90s, where, it is argued, Holling begun to use resilience as a more pragmatic “boundary term”, aimed at unifying transdisciplinary research about risks, ecological or otherwise, and at articulating public debate and governance strategies on the issue. In the conventional story, increased vagueness and degrees of normativity are the price to pay for this conceptual shift, which has made the term more widely usable, but also incompatible with scientific purposes and morally problematic (if not completely objectionable). This paper builds on a detailed analysis of Holling’s early work to propose an alternative narrative. The study will show that the “complexity turn” has often entangled theoretical and pragmatic aims. Accordingly, Holling’s primary aim was to fight what he termed “pathologies of natural resource management” or “pathologies of command and control management”, and so, the terms of his reform of ecosystem science are partly subordinate to the details of his proposal for reforming the management sciences. As regards resilience, Holling used it as a polysemous, ambiguous and normative term: sometimes, as an instrumental value that is closely related to various stability concepts; other times, and more crucially, as an intrinsic value and a tool for attacking efficiency and instrumentalism in management. This narrative reveals the limitations of its conventional alternative and has several practical advantages. It captures well the structure and purposes of Holling’s project, and the various roles of resilience in it. It helps to link Holling’s early work with other philosophical and ideological shifts at work in the 70s. It highlights the currency of Holling’s early work for present research and action in fields such as risk and climate adaptation. And it draws attention to morally relevant aspects of resilience that the conventional narrative neglects.

Keywords: resilience, complexity turn, risk management, positivistic, framing

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: K. Bencherif, M. Bellifa

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The expected climatic changes in North Africa are the increase of both intensity and frequencies of the summer droughts and a reduction in water availability during growing season. The exiting coppices and forest formations in the national park of Tlemcen are dominated by holm oak, zen oak and cork oak. These opened-fragmented structures don’t seem enough strong so to hope durable protection against climate change. According to the observed climatic tendency, the objective is to analyze the climatic context and its evolution taking into account the eventual behaving of the oak species during the next 20-30 years on one side and the landscaped context in relation with the most adequate sylvicultural models to choose and especially in relation with human activities on another side. The study methodology is based on Climatic synthesis and Floristic and spatial analysis. Meteorological data of the decade 1989-2009 are used to characterize the current climate. An another approach, based on dendrochronological analysis of a 120 years sample Aleppo pine stem growing in the park, is used so to analyze the climate evolution during one century. Results on the climate evolution during the 50 years obtained through climatic predictive models are exploited so to predict the climate tendency in the park. Spatially, in each forest unit of the Park, stratified sampling is achieved so to reduce the degree of heterogeneity and to easily delineate different stands using the GPS. Results from precedent study are used to analyze the anthropogenic factor considering the forecasts for the period 2025-2100, the number of warm days with a temperature over 25°C would increase from 30 to 70. The monthly mean temperatures of the maxima’s (M) and the minima’s (m) would pass respectively from 30.5°C to 33°C and from 2.3°C to 4.8°C. With an average drop of 25%, precipitations will be reduced to 411.37 mm. These new data highlight the importance of the risk fire and the water stress witch would affect the vegetation and the regeneration process. Spatial analysis highlights the forest and the agricultural dimensions of the park compared to the urban habitat and bare soils. Maps show both fragmentation state and forest surface regression (50% of total surface). At the level of the park, fires affected already all types of covers creating low structures with various densities. On the silvi cultural plan, Zen oak form in some places pure stands and this invasion must be considered as a natural tendency where Zen oak becomes the structuring specie. Climate-related changes have nothing to do with the real impact that South-Mediterranean forests are undergoing because human constraints they support. Nevertheless, hardwoods stand of oak in the national park of Tlemcen will face up to unexpected climate changes such as changing rainfall regime associated with a lengthening of the period of water stress, to heavy rainfall and/or to sudden cold snaps. Faced with these new conditions, management based on mixed uneven aged high forest method promoting the more dynamic specie could be an appropriate measure.

Keywords: global warming, mediterranean forest, oak shrub-lands, Tlemcen

Procedia PDF Downloads 370