Search results for: setup period estimation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7645

Search results for: setup period estimation

2755 Supplementation of Corosolic Acid Prevents the Development of Neuropathic Pain in Streptozotocin Induced Diabetic Rats

Authors: Aman Upaganlawar, Chandrasekhar Upasani

Abstract:

The present study was designed to screen the neuroprotective and antioxidant activity of corosolic acid in painful diabetic neuropathy (DN). Diabetes was induced in rats by single dose of STZ (60mg/kg, i.p). Diabetic rats were tested every week for the development of pain, at 5th week rats showed sensation of pain. At 6th week the rats developed significant neuropathic pain. They were divided into different groups and treated with Corosolic acid (2 and 4 mg/kg, p.o) for further two weeks. Pain was assessed in the diabetic rats by mechano-tactil allodynia, mechanical hyperalgesia and cold allodynia. At the end of treatment period rats were scarified and biochemical changes such as plasma glucose level, endogenous antioxidants (Lipid peroxidation, reduced glutathione, superoxide dismutase and catalase) in sciatic nerve were evaluated. Further Na+/K+ ATPase and nitric oxide content was also evaluated. Treatment with corosolic acid for two weeks restored the altered body weight and elevated blood sugar level. Further corosolic acid showed dose dependent reduction in pain in neuropathic animals. The level of endogenous antioxidants enzymes, Na+/K+ ATPase and nitric oxide were significantly prevented. In conclusion, the result of the present study suggests the antidiabetic, antioxidant and neuroprotectieve property of corosolic acid in diabetic rats with neuropathic pain.

Keywords: neuropathic pain, diabetes, corosolic acid, antioxidant

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2754 Rise in Public Interest in COVID-19 Symptoms and the Need for Proper Information: Insights from the Google Trends Analysis

Authors: Jaweriya Aftab, Madho Mal, Hamida Memon

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The first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Pakistan was recorded on February 26th, 2020. While the country went through various phases of lockdowns, the importance of proper sensitization campaigns was highlighted by healthcare workers to combat misinformation. Past studies via Google trends analysis have shown a rise in public interest in multiple COVID-19-related symptoms as well as cardiovascular symptoms. As there is a paucity of data related to the trends in Pakistan, we conducted a retrospective analysis to bridge further information. Methods: As per the recommendations from past studies, a Google trend analysis was conducted for various symptoms, including ‘Fever’, ‘Chest Pain’, ‘Shortness of Breath’, and ‘Cough’ between 1st January 2019 to 31st December 2021. The trends in various search results were analyzed and modeled. Results: Our analysis found various rises in public interest in the various symptoms (fever, chest pain, shortness of breath, and cough) that correspond closely to the wave of the virus's spread in the country. Conclusion: Our study confirms similar trends in Pakistan as previously reported in studies from India, USA, and UK, whereby the public interest in various COVID-19 symptoms rose with the number of cases. This further highlights the need for a strong approach to combat misinformation during such a critical period.

Keywords: covid, trend, Pakistan, public

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2753 Exploration and Evaluation of the Effect of Multiple Countermeasures on Road Safety

Authors: Atheer Al-Nuaimi, Harry Evdorides

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Every day many people die or get disabled or injured on roads around the world, which necessitates more specific treatments for transportation safety issues. International road assessment program (iRAP) model is one of the comprehensive road safety models which accounting for many factors that affect road safety in a cost-effective way in low and middle income countries. In iRAP model road safety has been divided into five star ratings from 1 star (the lowest level) to 5 star (the highest level). These star ratings are based on star rating score which is calculated by iRAP methodology depending on road attributes, traffic volumes and operating speeds. The outcome of iRAP methodology are the treatments that can be used to improve road safety and reduce fatalities and serious injuries (FSI) numbers. These countermeasures can be used separately as a single countermeasure or mix as multiple countermeasures for a location. There is general agreement that the adequacy of a countermeasure is liable to consistent losses when it is utilized as a part of mix with different countermeasures. That is, accident diminishment appraisals of individual countermeasures cannot be easily added together. The iRAP model philosophy makes utilization of a multiple countermeasure adjustment factors to predict diminishments in the effectiveness of road safety countermeasures when more than one countermeasure is chosen. A multiple countermeasure correction factors are figured for every 100-meter segment and for every accident type. However, restrictions of this methodology incorporate a presumable over-estimation in the predicted crash reduction. This study aims to adjust this correction factor by developing new models to calculate the effect of using multiple countermeasures on the number of fatalities for a location or an entire road. Regression models have been used to establish relationships between crash frequencies and the factors that affect their rates. Multiple linear regression, negative binomial regression, and Poisson regression techniques were used to develop models that can address the effectiveness of using multiple countermeasures. Analyses are conducted using The R Project for Statistical Computing showed that a model developed by negative binomial regression technique could give more reliable results of the predicted number of fatalities after the implementation of road safety multiple countermeasures than the results from iRAP model. The results also showed that the negative binomial regression approach gives more precise results in comparison with multiple linear and Poisson regression techniques because of the overdispersion and standard error issues.

Keywords: international road assessment program, negative binomial, road multiple countermeasures, road safety

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2752 Magnitude and Outcome of Resuscitation Activities at Rwanda Military Hospital for the Period of April 2013-September 2013

Authors: Auni Idi Muhire

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Background: Prior to April 2012, resuscitations were often ineffective resulting in poor patient outcomes. An initiative was implemented at Rwanda Military Hospital (RMH) to review root causes and plan strategies to improve patient outcomes. An interdisciplinary committee was developed to review this problem. Purpose: Analyze the frequency, obstacles, and outcome of patient resuscitation following cardiac and/or respiratory arrest. Methods: A form was developed to allow recording of all actions taken during resuscitation including response times, staff present, and equipment and medications used. Results:-The patient population requiring the most resuscitation effort are the intensive care patients, most frequently the neonatal the intensive care patients (42.8%) -Despite having trained staff representatives, not all resuscitations follow protocol -Lack of compliance with drug administration guidelines was noted, particularly in initiating use of drugs despite the drug being available (59%). Lesson Learned: Basic Life Support training for interdisciplinary staff resulted in more effective response to cardiac and/or respiratory arrest at RMH. Obstacles to effective resuscitation included number of staff, knowledge and skill level of staff, availability of appropriate equipment and medications, staff communication, and patient Do not Attempt Resuscitation (DNR) status.

Keywords: resuscitation, case analysis of knowledge versus practice, intensive care, critical care

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2751 Giant Achievements in Food Processing

Authors: Farnaz Amidi Fazli

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After long period of human experience about food processing from raw eating to canning of food in the last century now it is time to use novel technologies which are sometimes completely different from common technologies. It is possible to decontaminate food without using heat or the foods are stored without using cold chain. Pulsed electric field (PEF) processing is a non-thermal method of food preservation that uses short bursts of electricity, PEF can be used for processing liquid and semi-liquid food products. PEF processing offers high quality fresh-like liquid foods with excellent flavor, nutritional value, and shelf-life. High pressure processing (HPP) technology has the potential to fulfill both consumer and scientific requirements. The use of HPP for over 50 years has found applications in non-food industries. For food applications, ‘high pressure’ can be generally considered to be up to 600 MPa for most food products. After years, freezing has its high potential to food preservation due to new and quick freezing methods. Foods which are prepared by this technology have more acceptability and high quality comparing with old fashion slow freezing. Thus, quick freezing has further been adopted as a widespread commercial method for long-term preservation of perishable foods which improved both the health and convenience of everyone in the industrialised countries. Above parameters are achieved by Fluidised-bed freezing systems, freezing by immersion and Hydrofluidisation on the other hand new thawing methods like high-pressure, microwave, ohmic, and acoustic thawing have a key role in quality and adaptability of final product.

Keywords: quick freezing, thawing, high pressure, pulse electric, hydrofluidisation

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2750 Survey of Free-Range inhabitants of Federal University of Agriculture Abeokuta Zoological Park

Authors: Matthew Olanrewaju Ibiyomi

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The study examined the abundance of free-range natural inhabitants of the Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta (FUNAAB) Zoo Park. A baseline data of free-ranging inhabitants of the Park is essential to monitor trends and institute conservation plans through unsustainable natural resources exploitation and habitat destruction. Four transects were selected across the study area. Each transect was traversed for a period of four months and observations was carried out twice a day. The Four existing tracks explored during the study were the aviary, reptile, carnivore and primate tracks. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. The findings from this study revealed that 8 species of natural inhabitants were identified, which were the Vervet monkey (Chlorocebuspygerythrus), Maxwell duiker(Philantombamaxwellii), Mongoose (Herpestidaespp), Bushbuck(Tragelaphusscriptus), Cobra (Najanaja), Ground squirrel (Marmotinispp), Senegal coucal(Centropus senegalensis), Black kite (Milvus migrans). The result further showed that a total of 115 animals were encountered in the primate transect, 77 animals in the carnivores transect, 46 animals in the aviary transect and 34 animals in the ungulates transect by the representative of 43.3%, 28.3%, 15.8% and 12.5% respectively. Human activities and level of disturbance were observed to have affected the abundance and distribution of animals at Funaab Zoo Park. Continuous field inventory is recommended to ascertain the dynamics of animals observed as free-range inhabitants in this study.

Keywords: abundance, ecosystem, extinction, free-range

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2749 Environmental Metabolic Rift and Tourism Development: A Look at the Impact of the Malawi Tourism Industry Development Pattern

Authors: Lameck Zetu Khonje, Mulala Danny Simatele

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The tourism industry in Malawi has grown tremendously during the past twenty-five years. This growth is attributed to the change in the political system which opened doors to international tourist and investment opportunities in the country which previously was under a strict repressive one-party political system. This research paper focuses on the developments that took place in the accommodation sector during the same period and the impact that it has partly caused on an environmental metabolic rift in the country which is now vulnerable to climate change-related catastrophes. Respondents from the government departments and the hotel sector were recruited for in-depth interviews. These interviews were conducted between July and November 2015 and follow up interviews were conducted between September and December 2017. Both results indicated there were minimal efforts pursued from the public sector to cartel capitalistic development tendencies in the accommodation sector. The results from the hotel revealed there were considerable efforts pursued driven by operating cost-cutting motive. Applying systems thinking the paper recommends that the policing machinery needs improvement to ensure that the industry also focuses on environmental wellbeing instead of profit maximization. This paper contributes to the body of knowledge on tourism development and climate change.

Keywords: accommodation sector, climate change, metabolic rift, Malawi, tourism industry

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2748 Hydrodynamics of Selected Ethiopian Rift Lakes

Authors: Kassaye Bewketu Zellelew

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The Main Ethiopian Rift Valley lakes suffer from water level fluctuations due to several natural and anthropocentric factors. Lakes located at terminal positions are highly affected by the fluctuations. These fluctuations are disturbing the stability of ecosystems, putting very serious impacts on the lives of many animals and plants around the lakes. Hence, studying the hydrodynamics of the lakes was found to be very essential. The main purpose of this study is to find the most significant factors that contribute to the water level fluctuations and also to quantify the fluctuations so as to identify lakes that need special attention. The research method included correlations, least squares regressions, multi-temporal satellite image analysis and land use change assessment. The results of the study revealed that much of the fluctuations, specially, in Central Ethiopian Rift are caused by human activities. Lakes Abiyata, Chamo, Ziway and Langano are declining while Abaya and Hawassa are rising. Among the studied lakes, Abiyata is drastically reduced in size (about 28% of its area in 1986) due to both human activities (most dominant ones) and natural factors. The other seriously affected lake is Chamo with about 11% reduction in its area between 1986 and 2010. Lake Abaya was found to be relatively stable during this period (showed only a 0.8% increase in its area). Concerned bodies should pay special attention to and take appropriate measures on lakes Abiyata, Chamo and Hawassa.

Keywords: correlations, hydrodynamics, lake level fluctuation, landsat satellite images

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2747 Technology Transfer and FDI: Some Lessons for Tunisia

Authors: Assaad Ghazouani, Hedia Teraoui

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to try to see if the FDI actually contributes to technology transfer in Tunisia or are there other sources that can guarantee this transfer? The answer to this problem was gradual as we followed an approach using economic theory, the reality of Tunisia and econometric and statistical tools. We examined the relationship between technology transfer and FDI in Tunisia over a period of 40 years from 1970 to 2010. We estimated in two stages: first, a growth equation, then we have learned from this regression residue (proxy technology), secondly, we regressed on European FDI, exports of manufactures, imports of goods from the European Union in addition to other variables to test the robustness of the results and describing the level of infrastructure in the country. It follows from our study that technology transfer does not originate primarily and exclusively in the FDI and the latter is econometrically weakly with technology transfer and spill over effect of FDI does not seem to occur according to our results. However, the relationship between technology transfer and imports is negative and significant. Although this result is cons-intuitive, is recurrent in the literature of panel data. It has also given rise to intense debate on the microeconomic modelling as well as on the empirical applications. Technology transfer through trade or foreign investment has become a catalyst for growth recognized by numerous empirical studies in particular. However, the relationship technology transfer FDI is more complex than it appears. This complexity is due, primarily, but not exclusively to the close link between FDI and the characteristics of the host country. This is essentially the host's responsibility to establish general conditions, transparent and conducive to investment, and to strengthen human and institutional capacity necessary for foreign capital flows that can have real effects on growth.

Keywords: technology transfer, foreign direct investment, economics, finance

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2746 Multivariate Rainfall Disaggregation Using MuDRain Model: Malaysia Experience

Authors: Ibrahim Suliman Hanaish

Abstract:

Disaggregation daily rainfall using stochastic models formulated based on multivariate approach (MuDRain) is discussed in this paper. Seven rain gauge stations are considered in this study for different distances from the referred station starting from 4 km to 160 km in Peninsular Malaysia. The hourly rainfall data used are covered the period from 1973 to 2008 and July and November months are considered as an example of dry and wet periods. The cross-correlation among the rain gauges is considered for the available hourly rainfall information at the neighboring stations or not. This paper discussed the applicability of the MuDRain model for disaggregation daily rainfall to hourly rainfall for both sources of cross-correlation. The goodness of fit of the model was based on the reproduction of fitting statistics like the means, variances, coefficients of skewness, lag zero cross-correlation of coefficients and the lag one auto correlation of coefficients. It is found the correlation coefficients based on extracted correlations that was based on daily are slightly higher than correlations based on available hourly rainfall especially for neighboring stations not more than 28 km. The results showed also the MuDRain model did not reproduce statistics very well. In addition, a bad reproduction of the actual hyetographs comparing to the synthetic hourly rainfall data. Mean while, it is showed a good fit between the distribution function of the historical and synthetic hourly rainfall. These discrepancies are unavoidable because of the lowest cross correlation of hourly rainfall. The overall performance indicated that the MuDRain model would not be appropriate choice for disaggregation daily rainfall.

Keywords: rainfall disaggregation, multivariate disaggregation rainfall model, correlation, stochastic model

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2745 The Study of Effective Microorganism's Biopreperation for Wastewater Treatment

Authors: Batsukh Chultem, Oyunbileg Natsagdorj, Namsrai Steyrmunkh

Abstract:

Many industries, tourist camps and houses, discharge aqueous effluents containing relatively high levels of heavy metals, harmful organic compounds water. Untreated effluent from these manufacturing processes has an adverse impact on the environment. A specific problem associated with waste water in the environment is accumulation in the food chain and persistence in the environment. The screening of microorganisms resistant to pollution and able to detoxification them is essential for the development of clean-up technologies. The purpose of this study is to use advanced microbiological technology products for oxidizing organic and heavy metals pollutants as a biological treatment, to reduce water pollution, which arise as a result of waste water due to day-to-day operations of industries and houses of Ulaanbaatar city and tourist camps located around the lake Hovsgol, in Hovsgol province of Mongolia. By comparing the results from tests of effective microorganism’s bio-preparation treated sewage samples and not treated sewage samples shows that the treated sewage samples pollution decreased defending on treatment period and ratio. Treated water analyses show that: the suspended solids 352 mg/l, pH 5.85-7.95, ammonium nitrate 81.25-221.2 mg NH₄/l, nitrite 0.088-0.227 mg NO₂/l, nitrate 8.5-11.5 mg NO₃/l, and orthophosphate 1.06-15.46 mg PO₄/l. Also, heavy metals were decreased and microbiological test results defined parameters, respectively show the waste water pollution was reduced.

Keywords: effective microorganims, environment, pollution, treatment

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2744 A Multilevel Approach of Reproductive Preferences and Subsequent Behavior in India

Authors: Anjali Bansal

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Reproductive preferences mainly deal with two questions: when a couple wants children and how many they want. Questions related to these desires are often included in the fertility surveys as they can provide relevant information on the subsequent behavior. The aim of the study is to observe whether respondent’s response to these questions changed over time or not. We also tried to identify socio- economic and demographic factors associated with the stability (or instability) of fertility preferences. For this purpose, we used IHDS1 (2004-05) and follow up survey IHDS2 (2011-12) data and applied bivariate, multivariate and multilevel repeated measure analysis to it to find the consistency between responses. From the analysis, we found that preferences of women changes over the course of time as from the bivariate analysis we have found that 52% of women are not consistent in their desired family size and huge inconsistency are found in desire to continue childbearing. To get a better overlook of these inconsistencies, we have computed Intra Class Correlation (ICC) which tries to explain the consistency between individuals on their fertility responses at two time periods. We also explored that husband’s desire for additional child specifically male offspring contribute to these variations. Our findings lead us to a cessation that in India, individuals fertility preferences changed over a seven-year time period as the Intra Class correlation comes out to be very small which explains the variations among individuals. Concerted efforts should be made, therefore, to educate people, and conduct motivational programs to promote family planning for family welfare.

Keywords: change, consistency, preferences, over time

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2743 Thermal Analysis and Experimental Procedure of Integrated Phase Change Material in a Storage Tank

Authors: Chargui Ridha, Agrebi Sameh

Abstract:

The integration of phase change materials (PCM) for the storage of thermal energy during the period of sunshine before being released during the night is a complement of free energy to improve the system formed by a solar collector, tank storage, and a heat exchanger. This paper is dedicated to the design of a thermal storage tank based on a PCM-based heat exchanger. The work is divided into two parts: an experimental part using paraffin as PCM was carried out within the Laboratory of Thermal Processes of Borj Cedria in order to improve the performance of the system formed by the coupling of a flat solar collector and a thermal storage tank and to subsequently determine the influence of PCM on the whole system. This phase is based on the measurement instrumentation, namely, a differential scanning calorimeter (DSC) and the thermal analyzer (hot disk: HOT DISK) in order to determine the physical properties of the paraffin (PCM), which has been chosen. The second phase involves the detailed design of the PCM heat exchanger, which is incorporated into a thermal storage tank and coupled with a solar air collector installed at the Research and Technology Centre of Energy (CRTEn). A numerical part based on the TRANSYS and Fluent software, as well as the finite volume method, was carried out for the storage reservoir systems in order to determine the temperature distribution in each chosen system.

Keywords: phase change materials, storage tank, heat exchanger, flat plate collector

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2742 Characterization of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Ambient Air PM2.5 in an Urban Site of Győr, Hungary

Authors: A. Szabó Nagy, J. Szabó, Zs. Csanádi, J. Erdős

Abstract:

In Hungary, the measurement of ambient PM10-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations is great importance for a number of reasons related to human health, the environment and compliance with European Union legislation. However, the monitoring of PAHs associated with PM2.5 aerosol fraction is still incomplete. Therefore, the main aim of this study was to investigate the concentration levels of PAHs in PM2.5 urban aerosol fraction. PM2.5 and associated PAHs were monitored in November 2014 in an urban site of Győr (Northwest Hungary). The aerosol samples were collected every day for 24-hours over two weeks with a high volume air sampler provided with a PM2.5 cut-off inlet. The levels of 19 PAH compounds associated with PM2.5 aerosol fraction were quantified by a gas chromatographic method. Polluted air quality for PM2.5 (>25 g/m3) was indicated in 50% of the collected samples. The total PAHs concentrations ranged from 2.1 to 37.3 ng/m3 with the mean value of 12.4 ng/m3. Indeno(123-cd)pyrene (IND) and sum of three benzofluoranthene isomers were the most dominant PAH species followed by benzo(ghi)perylene and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP). Using BaP-equivalent approach on the concentration data of carcinogenic PAH species, BaP, and IND contributed the highest carcinogenic exposure equivalent (1.50 and 0.24 ng/m3 on average). A selected number of concentration ratios of specific PAH compounds were calculated to evaluate the possible sources of PAH contamination. The ratios reflected that the major source of PAH compounds in the PM2.5 aerosol fraction of Győr during the study period was fossil fuel combustion from automobiles.

Keywords: air, PM2.5, benzo(a)pyrene, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon

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2741 A Clinical Study on the Versatility of Lateral Supra Malleolar Flap in Lower Limb Wound Reconstruction

Authors: Animesh Gupta

Abstract:

Objective: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the versatility and outcome of lateral supra malleolar flap (LSMF) in soft tissue reconstruction of the regions including the distal leg, ankle, dorsal foot and heel. Methods: From March 2021 to April 2023, 18 patients with soft tissue defects in the regions, including the distal leg, ankle, dorsal foot and heel, who underwent LSMF repair for lower limb wound reconstruction were analyzed. The location, size of the defects, etiology, outcome, complications, and other alternative options were studied and presented. Results: The follow-up period of the cases was 3-6 months after surgery. All flaps were successful; however, one flap was complicated by venous congestion and was managed by loosening a few sutures and the patient was required to elevate the affected limb to resolve the issue. Conclusion: The LSMF has numerous advantages in repairing soft tissue defects in areas involving the ankle, distal leg, heel and dorsum of the foot. In comparison to reverse sural flaps for repairing defects in the heel and lower leg, LSMF offers shorter operation time, shorter hospitalization, lower cost, and fewer postoperative complications.

Keywords: lateral supra malleolar flap, LSMF, soft tissue reconstruction, lower leg defect

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2740 Effectiveness of Intraoperative Heparinization in Neonatal and Pediatric Patients with Congenital Heart Diseases: Focus in Heparin Resistance

Authors: Karakhalis N. B.

Abstract:

This study aimed to determine the prevalence of heparin resistance among cardiac surgical pediatric and neonatal patients and identify associated risk factors. Materials and Methods: The study included 306 pediatric and neonatal patients undergoing on-pump cardiac surgery. Patients whose activated clotting time (ACT) targets were achieved after the first administration of heparin formed the 1st group (n=280); the 2nd group (n=26) included patients with heparin resistance. The initial assessment of the haemostasiological profile included determining the PT, aPPT, FG, AT III activity, and INR. Intraoperative control of heparinization was carried out with a definition of ACT using a kaolin activator. A weight-associated protocol at the rate of 300 U/kg with target values of ACT >480 sec was used for intraoperative heparinization. Results: The heparin resistance was verified in 8.5% of patients included in the study. Repeated heparin administration at the maximum dose of≥600 U/kg is required in 80.77% of cases. Despite additional heparinization, 19.23% of patients had FFP infusion. There was reduced antithrombin activity in the heparin resistance group (p=0.01). Most patients with heparin resistance (57.7%) were pretreated with low molecular weight heparins during the preoperative period. Conclusion: Determining the initial level of antithrombin activity can predict the risk of developing heparin resistance. The factor analysis verified hidden risk factors for heparin resistance to the heparin pretreatment, chronic hypoxia, and chronic heart failure.

Keywords: congenital heart disease, heparin, antithrombin, activated clotting time, heparin resistance

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2739 Modeling of Maximum Rainfall Using Poisson-Generalized Pareto Distribution in Kigali, Rwanda

Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye

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Extreme rainfall events have caused significant damage to agriculture, ecology, and infrastructure, disruption of human activities, injury, and loss of life. They also have significant social, economic, and environmental consequences because they considerably damage urban as well as rural areas. Early detection of extreme maximum rainfall helps to implement strategies and measures, before they occur, hence mitigating the consequences. Extreme value theory has been used widely in modeling extreme rainfall and in various disciplines, such as financial markets, the insurance industry, failure cases. Climatic extremes have been analyzed by using either generalized extreme value (GEV) or generalized Pareto (GP) distributions, which provides evidence of the importance of modeling extreme rainfall from different regions of the world. In this paper, we focused on Peak Over Thresholds approach, where the Poisson-generalized Pareto distribution is considered as the proper distribution for the study of the exceedances. This research also considers the use of the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution with a Poisson model for arrivals to describe peaks over a threshold. The research used statistical techniques to fit models that used to predict extreme rainfall in Kigali. The results indicate that the proposed Poisson-GP distribution provides a better fit to maximum monthly rainfall data. Further, the Poisson-GP models are able to estimate various return levels. The research also found a slow increase in return levels for maximum monthly rainfall for higher return periods, and further, the intervals are increasingly wider as the return period is increasing.

Keywords: exceedances, extreme value theory, generalized Pareto distribution, Poisson generalized Pareto distribution

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2738 Transforming Art: A Cross-Cultural Study of Visual Art and Literature in Rainer Maria Rilke

Authors: Rosy Saikia, Krishna Barua

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The evolution of visual art can be traced back from “pre-historic” humans, from the age of Paleolithic, Neolithic, and Metal Age. Mesopotamians and the Egyptians were the pioneers of art, in the first period of history. But the field of art first flourished in the west during the Renaissance. Since then, art represents a continuous yet varied tradition till present day. Until the early 19th century art focused chiefly on representational, religious and classical motifs, but gradually art became more abstract and conceptual approaches gained popularity. Rainer Maria Rilke (1875-1926) was one of the leading poets cum art critic of European modernism. This paper addresses the relationship between Rilke's poetry and visual art, which involves an intimate transference of aesthetic means and definitions of form in the creative process of writing. Rilke’s connection with Auguste Rodin made him learn that a person who can “see” things could realize the beauty of a “thing” and could subsequently write. To “see” the “thing” or “object” rather than representing emotion was considered as more important by Rodin and that was the way he cracked the old aesthetic mould. Rilke himself agreed that his correspondence with the artists made him acquainted nothing but a new way of seeing. Rilke admitted to the constant reference to the Bible, the books of the Danish poet Jens Peter Jacobsen and Auguste Rodin, who all had given him the experience of the essence of creativity, its depths and eternity. Rilke’s association with philosophers such as Nietzhche and artists, starting from Worpweders and Rodin to Cezanne’s paintings, made him almost an apprentice in visual art.

Keywords: seeing, gaze, aesthetic, beauty, visual art, Rilke

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2737 Natural Regeneration Assessment of a Double Bunrt Mediterranean Coniferous Forest: A Pilot Study from West Peloponnisos, Greece

Authors: Dionisios Panagiotaras, Ioannis P. Kokkoris, Dionysios Koulougliotis, Dimitra Lekka, Alexandra Skalioti

Abstract:

In the summer of 2021, Greece was affected by devastating forest fires in various regions of the country, resulting in human losses, destruction or degradation of the natural environment, infrastructure, livestock and cultivations. The present study concerns a pilot assessment of natural vegetation regeneration in the second, in terms of area, fire-affected region for 2021, at Ancient Olympia area, located in West Peloponnisos (Ilia Prefecture), Greece. A standardised field sampling protocol for assessing natural regeneration was implemented at selected sites where the forest fire had occurred previously (in 2007), and the vegetation (Pinus halepensis forest) had regenerated naturally. The results of the study indicate the loss of the established natural regeneration of Pinus halepensis forest, as well as of the tree-layer in total. Post-fire succession species are recorded to the shrub and the herb layer, with a varying cover. Present findings correspond to the results of field work and analysis one year after the fire, which will form the basis for further research and conclusions on taking action for restoration schemes in areas that have been affected by fire more than once within a 20-year period.

Keywords: forest, pinus halepensis, ancient olympia, post fire vegetation

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2736 Risk Factors and Outcome of Free Tissue Transfer at a Tertiary Care Referral Center

Authors: Majid Khan

Abstract:

Introduction: In this era of microsurgery, free flap holds a remarkable spot in reconstructive surgery. A free flap is well suited for composite defects as it provides sufficient and well-vascularized tissue for coverage. We report our experience with the use of the free flaps for the reconstruction of composite defects. Methods: This is a retrospective case series (chart review) of patients who underwent reconstruction of composite defects with a free flap at Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi (Pakistan) from January 01, 2015, to December 31, 2019. Data were collected for patient demographics, size of the defect, size of flap, recipient vessels, postoperative complications, and outcome of the free flap. Results: Over this period, 532 free flaps are included in this study. The overall success rate is 95.5%. The mean age of the patient was 44.86 years. In 532 procedures, there were 448 defects from tumor ablation of head and neck cancer. The most frequent free flap was the anterolateral thigh flap in 232 procedures. In this study, the risk factor hypertension (p=0.004) was found significant for wound dehiscence, preop radiation/chemotherapy (p=0.003), and malnutrition (p=0.005) were found significant for fistula formation. Malnutrition (p=0.02) and use of vein grafts (p=0.025) were significant factors for flap failure. Conclusion: Free tissue transfer is a reliable option for the reconstruction of large and composite defects. Hypertension, malnutrition, and preoperative radiotherapy can cause significant morbidity.

Keywords: free flap, free flap failure, risk factors for flap failure, free flap outcome

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2735 Reproductive Performance of Red Sokoto Goats from a Semi-Intensive Management System in Semi-Arid Zone, Nigeria

Authors: Garba Yusuf, Ibrahim Rakson Muhammad, Bashir Fagge Muhammad, Shehu Ahmad Maigandi

Abstract:

On-farm data were collected to evaluate reproductive performance of Red Sokoto does reared under small-holder agro-pastoral production system within metropolitan Kano, semi-arid, Nigeria. The effects of age of dams, parity, litter size(s) and sex of kid(s) on pre-weaning growth rate were investigated. Data was obtained from semi-intensively managed herds of twenty four households for a period of six months. Pregnant does were ear tagged and age determined through dentition. Upon kidding, litter size, parity of dam and sex of kid(s) were recorded. Subsequently, daily liveweight changes of kids was monitored and recorded. Results obtained revealed average weight at birth to be 3.18 kg and 2.87 kg for female and male kids with average daily weight gain of 0.11 and 0.13 kg, respectively. Result also showed that male kids gained higher liveweight from 21st day to weaning and single or twin births had higher liveweight changes relative to triplets. Does at third parity produced kids with higher weight gain. From the results of this study, it is concluded that male kids at 21 days of age (single or twin) or dam at third parity or three years of age be selected for a sound breeding programme.

Keywords: agro-pastoral, goats, parity, reproductive, semi-intensive

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2734 The Use of Urine Cytology in an Australian Regional Hospital Compared to International Guidelines

Authors: Jake Tempo, Stephen Brough

Abstract:

Introduction and Objectives: Urine cytology has a role in the diagnosis of urothelial cancer when used alongside cystoscopy and imaging, according to the European Association of Urology guidelines. It also has a role in the surveillance post-treatment of urothelial carcinoma. Collecting and analysing urine cytology is costly and time-consuming. We investigated the use of urine cytology in an Australian regional hospital to determine whether clinicians are following international guidelines. Materials and Methods: We analysed all urine cytology requests performed in an Australian regional hospital between 1st January 2017 and 31st December 2018. We reviewed the indication for urine cytology and the patients’ case notes to determine whether urine cytology changed management. Results: During the two-year study period, 153 patients had urine cytology analysed for a variety of indications. In no cases did cytology change the outcome of patient management significantly. In total, 69 of 153 (41%) urine cytology requests were not supported by urological society guidelines. Fifty requests were for haematuria, and twenty requests were for urothelial cancer surveillance. Seven were analysed for follow-up from previous urological investigations. Nine samples were sent for ureteric obstruction of unknown origin. Conclusion: Urine cytology, even when positive, did not significantly change management for the investigation of potential urothelial cancer, and therefore, its use as a diagnostic tool for this purpose should be reconsidered. Many cytology tests are expensive, unnecessary, and not supported by urological society guidelines.

Keywords: cytology, bladder cancer, urine, urothelial carcinoma

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2733 Investigation of Pollution and the Physical and Chemical Condition of Polour River, East of Tehran, Iran

Authors: Azita Behbahaninia

Abstract:

This research has been carried out to determine the water quality and physico-chemical properties Polour River, one of the most branch of Haraz River. Polour River was studied for a period of one year Samples were taken from different stations along the main branch of River polour. In water samples determined pH, DO, SO4, Cl, PO4, NO3, EC, BOD, COD, Temprature, color and number of Caliform per liter. ArcGIS was used for the zoning of phosphate concentration in the polour River basin. The results indicated that the river is polluted in polour village station, because of discharge domestic wastewater and also river is polluted in Ziar village station, because of agricultural wastewater and water is contaminated in aquaculture station, because of fish ponds wastewater. Statistical analysis shows that between independent traits and coliform regression relationship is significant at the 1% level. Coefficient explanation index indicated independent traits control 80% coliform and 20 % is for unknown parameters. The causality analysis showed Temperature (0.6) has the most positive and direct effect on coliform and sulfate has direct and negative effect on coliform. The results of causality analysis and the results of the regression analysis are matched and other forms direct and indirect effects were negligible and ignorable. Kruskal-Wallis test showed, there is different between sampling stations and studied characters. Between stations for temperature, DO, COD, EC, sulfate and coliform is at 1 % and for phosphate 5 % level of significance.

Keywords: coliform, GIS, pollution, phosphate, river

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2732 Role of the Marshes in the Natural Decontamination of Surface Water: A Case of the Redjla Marsh, North-Eastern Algerian

Authors: S. Benessam, T. H. Debieche, A. Drouiche, S. Mahdid, F. Zahi

Abstract:

The marsh is the impermeable depression. It is not very deep and presents the stagnant water. Their water level varies according to the contributions of water (rain, groundwater, stream etc.), when this last reaches the maximum level of the marsh, it flows towards the downstream through the discharge system. The marsh accumulates all the liquid and solid contributions of upstream part. In the North-East Algerian, the Redjla marsh is located on the course of the Tassift river. Its contributions of water come from the upstream part of the river, often characterized by the presence of several pollutants in water related to the urban effluents, and its discharge system supply the downstream part of the river. In order to determine the effect of the marsh on the water quality of the river this study was conducted. A two-monthly monitoring of the physicochemical parameters and water chemistry of the river were carried out, before and after the marsh, during the period from November 2013 to January 2015. The results show that the marsh plays the role of a natural purifier of water of Tassift river, present by drops of conductivity and concentration of the pollutants (ammonium, phosphate, iron, chlorides and bicarbonates) between the upstream part and downstream of the marsh. That indicates that these pollutants are transformed with other chemical forms (case of ammonium towards nitrate), precipitated in complex forms or/and adsorbed by the sediments of the marsh. This storage of the pollutants in the ground of the marsh will be later on a source of pollution for the plants and river water.

Keywords: marsh, natural purification, urban pollution, nitrogen

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2731 A Second Spark Ignition Timing for the High Power Aircraft Radial Engine Using a CFD Transient Modeling

Authors: Tytus Tulwin, Adam Majczak

Abstract:

In aviation most important systems that impact the aircraft flight safety are duplicated. The ASz-62IR aircraft radial engine consists of two spark plugs powered by two separate magnetos. The relative difference in spark timing has an influence on the combustion process. The retardation of the second spark relative to the first spark was analyzed. The CFD simulation was developed as a multicycle transient model. Two independent spark sources imitate two flame fronts after an ignition period. It makes the combustion process shorter but only for certain range of second spark retardation. The model was validated by the in-cylinder pressure comparison. Combustion parameters were analyzed for different second spark retardation values. It was found that the most advantageous ignition timing in means of performance is simultaneous ignition. Nevertheless, for this engine the ignition time of the second spark plug is greatly retarded eliminating the advantageous performance influence. The reason behind this is maintaining high ignition certainty for all engine running conditions and for whole operating rpm range. In aviation the engine reliability is more important than its performance. Introducing electronic ignition system can yield from simultaneous ignition timing by increasing the engine performance and providing good reliability for all flight conditions. This work has been financed by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development, INNOLOT, under Grant Agreement No. INNOLOT/I/1/NCBR/2013.

Keywords: CFD, combustion, ignition, simulation, timing

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2730 Leaching Losses of Fertilizer Nitrogen as Affected by Sulfur and Nitrification Inhibitor Applications

Authors: Abdel Khalek Selim, Safaa Mahmoud

Abstract:

Experiments were designed to study nitrogen loss through leaching in soil columns treated with different nitrogen sources and elemental sulfur. The soil material (3 kg alluvial or calcareous soil) were packed in Plexiglas columns (10 cm diameter). The soil columns were treated with 2 g N in the form of Ca(NO3)2, urea, urea + inhibitor (Nitrapyrin), another set of these treatments was prepared to add elemental sulfur. During incubation period, leaching was performed by applying a volume of water that allows the percolation of 250-ml water throughout the soil column. The leachates were analyzed for NH4-N and N03-N. After 10 weeks, soil columns were cut into four equal segments and analyzed for ammonium, nitrate, and total nitrogen. Results indicated the following: Ca(NO3)2 treatment showed a rapid NO3 leaching, especially in the first 3 weeks, in both clay and calcareous soils. This means that soil texture did not play any role in this respect. Sulfur addition also did not affect the rate of NO3 leaching. In urea treatment, there was a steady increase of NH4- and NO3–N from one leachate to another. Addition of sulfur with urea slowed down the nitrification process and decreased N losses. Clay soil contained residual N much more than calcareous soil. Almost one-third of added nitrogen might have been immobilized by soil microorganisms or lost through other loss paths. Nitrification inhibitor can play a role in preserving added nitrogen from being lost through leaching. Combining the inhibitor with elemental sulfur may help to stabilize certain preferred ratio of NH4 to NO3 in the soil for the benefit of the growing plants.

Keywords: alluvial soil, calcareous soil, elemental sulfur, nitrate leaching

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2729 The Ocean at the Center of Geopolitics: Between an Overflowing Land and an Under-Exploited Sea

Authors: Ana Maria De Azevedo

Abstract:

We are living a remarkable period, responsible for the thriving of the human population to unprecedented levels. Still, it is empirically obvious that sustaining such a huge population puts a tremendous pressure on our planet. Once Land resources grow scarcer, there is a mounting pressure to find alternatives to support basic human needs elsewhere. Occupying most of our planet, it’s therefore natural that, is not a so distant future, humankind look for such basic subsistence means at the Ocean. Thus, once the Ocean becomes essential to Human subsistence, it is predictable it's moving to the foreground of Geopolitics. Both future technologies and uses of the Ocean, as bidding for the exploration of its resources away from the natural territory of influence of a Country, are susceptible of raising the risk of conflict between traditional political adversaries and/or the dilemma of having to balance economic interests, with various security and defense concerns. Those empirical observations suggest the need to further research on this perspective shift of the main Geopolitical axis to the Ocean, the new sources of conflict that can result thereon, and how to address them. The author suggests a systematic analysis of this problematic, to attain a political and legal international consensus, namely on what concerns updating of the 'United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea' of 10 December 1982, and/or its annexes. To proceed with the present research, the primary analysis was based on a quantitative observation, but reasoning thereon relied essentially on a qualitative process of prospective scenarios assessment.

Keywords: marine resources, ocean geopolitics, security and defense, sustainable development

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2728 Mathematical Modelling of Biogas Dehumidification by Using of Counterflow Heat Exchanger

Authors: Staņislavs Gendelis, Andris Jakovičs, Jānis Ratnieks, Aigars Laizāns, Dāvids Vardanjans

Abstract:

Dehumidification of biogas at the biomass plants is very important to provide the energy efficient burning of biomethane at the outlet. A few methods are widely used to reduce the water content in biogas, e.g. chiller/heat exchanger based cooling, usage of different adsorbents like PSA, or the combination of such approaches. A quite different method of biogas dehumidification is offered and analyzed in this paper. The main idea is to direct the flow of biogas from the plant around it downwards; thus, creating additional insulation layer. As the temperature in gas shell layer around the plant will decrease from ~ 38°C to 20°C in the summer or even to 0°C in the winter, condensation of water vapor occurs. The water from the bottom of the gas shell can be collected and drain away. In addition, another upward shell layer is created after the condensate drainage place on the outer side to further reducing heat losses. Thus, counterflow biogas heat exchanger is created around the biogas plant. This research work deals with the numerical modelling of biogas flow, taking into account heat exchange and condensation on cold surfaces. Different kinds of boundary conditions (air and ground temperatures in summer/winter) and various physical properties of constructions (insulation between layers, wall thickness) are included in the model to make it more general and useful for different biogas flow conditions. The complexity of this problem is fact, that the temperatures in both channels are conjugated in case of low thermal resistance between layers. MATLAB programming language is used for multiphysical model development, numerical calculations and result visualization. Experimental installation of a biogas plant’s vertical wall with an additional 2 layers of polycarbonate sheets with the controlled gas flow was set up to verify the modelling results. Gas flow at inlet/outlet, temperatures between the layers and humidity were controlled and measured during a number of experiments. Good correlation with modelling results for vertical wall section allows using of developed numerical model for an estimation of parameters for the whole biogas dehumidification system. Numerical modelling of biogas counterflow heat exchanger system placed on the plant’s wall for various cases allows optimizing of thickness for gas layers and insulation layer to ensure necessary dehumidification of the gas under different climatic conditions. Modelling of system’s defined configuration with known conditions helps to predict the temperature and humidity content of the biogas at the outlet.

Keywords: biogas dehumidification, numerical modelling, condensation, biogas plant experimental model

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2727 Natural Factors of Interannual Variability of Winter Precipitation over the Altai Krai

Authors: Sukovatov K.Yu., Bezuglova N.N.

Abstract:

Winter precipitation variability over the Altai Krai was investigated by retrieving temporal patterns. The spectral singular analysis was used to describe the variance distribution and to reduce the precipitation data into a few components (modes). The associated time series were related to large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation indices by using lag cross-correlation and wavelet-coherence analysis. GPCC monthly precipitation data for rectangular field limited by 50-550N, 77-880E and monthly climatological circulation index data for the cold season were used to perform SSA decomposition and retrieve statistics for analyzed parameters on the time period 1951-2017. Interannual variability of winter precipitation over the Altai Krai are mostly caused by three natural factors: intensity variations of momentum exchange between mid and polar latitudes over the North Atlantic (explained variance 11.4%); wind speed variations in equatorial stratosphere (quasi-biennial oscillation, explained variance 15.3%); and surface temperature variations for equatorial Pacific sea (ENSO, explained variance 2.8%). It is concluded that under the current climate conditions (Arctic amplification and increasing frequency of meridional processes in mid-latitudes) the second and the third factors are giving more significant contribution into explained variance of interannual variability for cold season atmospheric precipitation over the Altai Krai than the first factor.

Keywords: interannual variability, winter precipitation, Altai Krai, wavelet-coherence

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2726 Multivariate Analysis of Causes of Death among Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients: A Seer-Based Study

Authors: Peri Harish Kumar, Sai Sharan Dwarka, Tajbinder Singh Bains, Suneet John Joseph, Chaitanya Kiran, Sambhu Dutta, Sarah Makram, Mohamed Sayed Zaazouee, Alaa Ahmed Elshanbary

Abstract:

Objective: To identify cancer and non-cancer causes of death in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients over different time periods after diagnosis and to compare the mortality risk of each cause in HCC patients with the general population. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, data of 67,637 HCC patients from 1975 to 2016 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We investigated the association between different causes of death and the following variables: age, race, tumor stage at diagnosis, and treatment (surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy); each according to the periods of <1 year, 1-5 years, 5-10 years, and >10 years following the diagnosis. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for cancer and non-cancer deaths in each of the mentioned periods following diagnosis. Results: Data of 67,637 patients, of whom 50,571 patients died during the follow-up period, were analyzed. Most deaths were due to HCC itself (35,535, 70.3%), followed by other cancers (3,983, 7.9%). Common causes of non-cancer mortality included infectious and parasitic diseases including HIV (2,823 patients, SMR=105.68, 95% CI: 101.82-109.65), chronic liver disease (2,719 patients, SMR=76.56, 95% CI: 73.71,79.5), and heart diseases (1,265 patients, SMR=2.26, 95% CI: 2.14-2.39), with higher mortality risk in HCC patients than in the general population. Conclusion: Cancers stand for most deaths in patients with HCC. Besides, infectious, and parasitic diseases including HIV represent the commonest non-cancer cause of mortality.

Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma, seer, causes of death, mortality

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