Search results for: insurance pricing

Authors: Iman Shabanzadeh

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Over the last three decades, the main demands of the Iranian workforce have been focused on three areas: "The right to a decent wage", "The right to organize" and "The right to job security". In order to investigate and analyze this situation, the present study focuses on the component of job security. The purpose of the study is to figure out what mechanisms in Iran's Labor Law have led to the destabilization and undermining of workers' job security. The research method is descriptive-analytical. To collect information, library and document sources in the field of laws related to labor rights in Iran and, semi-structured interviews with experts have been used. In the data analysis stage, the qualitative content analysis method was also used. The trend analysis of the statistics related to the labor force situation in Iran in the last three decades shows that the employment structure has been facing an increase in the active population, but in the last decade, a large part of this population has been mainly active in the service sector, and contract-free enterprises, so a smaller share of this employment has insurance coverage and a larger share has underemployment. In this regard, the results of this study show that four contexts have been proposed as the main legal and executive mechanisms of labor instability in Iran, which are: 1) temporaryization of the labor force by providing different interpretations of labor law, 2) adjustment labor in the public sector and the emergence of manpower contracting companies, 3) the cessation of labor law protection of workers in small workshops and 4) the existence of numerous restrictions on the effective organization of workers. The theoretical conclusion of this article is that the main root of the challenges of the labor society and the destabilized workforce in Iran is the existence of structural inequalities in the field of labor security, whose traces can be seen in the legal provisions and executive regulations of this field.

Keywords: inequality, precariat, temporaryization, labor force, labor law

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Authors: Hengki Eko Putra, Dennish Ari Putro, Tri Wahyu Hadi, Edi Riawan, Junnaedhi Dewa Gede, Aditia Rojali, Fariza Dian Prasetyo, Yudhistira Satya Pribadi, Dita Fatria Andarini, Mila Khaerunisa, Raditya Hanung Prakoswa

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Catastrophe risk management can only be done if we are able to calculate the exposed risks. Jakarta is an important city economically, socially, and politically and in the same time exposed to severe floods. On the other hand, flood risk calculation is still very limited in the area. This study has calculated the risk of flooding for Jakarta using 2-Dimensional Model ANUGA. 2-Dimensional model ANUGA and 1-Dimensional Model HEC-RAS are used to calculate the risk of flooding from 13 major rivers in Jakarta. ANUGA can simulate physical and dynamical processes between the streamflow against river geometry and land cover to produce a 1-meter resolution inundation map. The value of streamflow as an input for the model obtained from hydrological analysis on rainfall data using hydrologic model HEC-HMS. The probabilistic streamflow derived from probabilistic rainfall using statistical distribution Log-Pearson III, Normal and Gumbel, through compatibility test using Chi Square and Smirnov-Kolmogorov. Flood event on 2007 is used as a comparison to evaluate the accuracy of model output. Property damage estimations were calculated based on flood depth for 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years return period against housing value data from the BPS-Statistics Indonesia, Centre for Research and Development of Housing and Settlements, Ministry of Public Work Indonesia. The vulnerability factor was derived from flood insurance claim. Jakarta's flood loss estimation for the return period of 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years, respectively are Rp 1.30 t; Rp 16.18 t; Rp 16.85 t; Rp 21.21 t; Rp 24.32 t; and Rp 24.67 t of the total value of building Rp 434.43 t.

Keywords: 2D hydrodynamic model, ANUGA, flood, flood modeling

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Authors: Hester Fass, Ofir Pinto

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Research indicates gaps in education, employment rates and wages between people with disabilities and those without disabilities. One of the main tools available to reduce these gaps is vocational rehabilitation. In order to examine the effects of vocational rehabilitation, a follow-up study, based on comprehensive administrative data, was conducted. The study included 88,286 people with disabilities who participated in vocational rehabilitation of the National Insurance Institute of Israel (NII), and completed the process between 1999 and 2012. Research variables included: employment rates, job persistence and wage levels. This research, the first of its kind in Israel, has several unique aspects: a)a long-range follow-up study on people who completed vocational rehabilitation; b) examination of a broad population spectrum, including also people that are not eligible to disability pensions ; c) a comparison among those with work-related injuries, those injured in hostile acts and those injured in other circumstances; and finally d) the identification of the characteristics of those who are entitled to vocational rehabilitation but who do not participate in any vocational rehabilitation plan. The most notable results include: 1. Vocational rehabilitation contributed to employment, job persistence and wage levels. Participation in vocational rehabilitation resulted in an employment rate of 65% within two years after completing the program, and 73% eventually. Participation in a vocational rehabilitation plan also contributed to job persistence and wage levels. 2. Vocational rehabilitation plans aimed at integration in universal frameworks increased the chances of being employed, persisting at the job and receiving a higher wage than did the vocational rehabilitation aimed at selective frameworks (such as sheltered workshops). 3. The type of disability affected the chances of integration in a vocational rehabilitation plan and in the labor market. People with a disability from birth had greater chances of integration in a vocational rehabilitation plan, while the type of disability and its severity affected the chances of the person with disabilities to find employment.

Keywords: vocational rehabilitation, employment, job persistence, wages

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Authors: Rabin Paudel, Dambar Bahadur Mahato, Prabin Poudel, Bijaya Neupane, Sakar Jha

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Understanding Human-Elephant Conflict (HEC) is very important in countries like Nepal, where solutions to escalating conflicts are urgently required. However, most of the HEC mitigation measures implemented so far have been done on an ad hoc basis without the detailed understanding of nature and extent of the damage. This study aims to assess the current scenario of HEC in regards to crop and property damages by Wild Asian Elephant and people’s perception towards existing mitigating measures and elephant conservation in Buffer zone area of Bardia National Park. The methods used were a questionnaire survey (N= 178), key-informant interview (N= 18) and focal group discussions (N= 6). Descriptive statistics were used to determine the nature and extent of damage and to understand people’s perception towards HEC, its mitigation measures and elephant conservation. Chi-square test was applied to determine the significance of crop and property damages with respect to distance from the park boundary. Out of all types of damage, crop damage was found to be the highest (51%), followed by house damage (31%) and damage to stored grains (18%) with winter being the season with the greatest elephant damage. Among 178 respondents, the majority of them (82%) were positive towards elephant conservation despite the increment in HEC incidents as perceived by 88% of total respondents. Among the mitigation measures present, the most applied was electric fence (91%) followed by barbed wire fence (5%), reinforced concrete cement wall (3%) and gabion wall (1%). Most effective mitigation measures were reinforced concrete cement wall and gabion wall. To combat increasing crop damage, the insurance policy should be initiated. The efficiency of the mitigation measures should be timely monitored, and corrective measures should be applied as per the need.

Keywords: crop and property damage, elephant conflict, Asiatic wild elephant, mitigation measures

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Authors: Mahadehe Hassan

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Transport system and industries which are the main basis of industrial and socio-economic development of any country. It is mainly dependent on fossil fuels. Bangladesh has fossil fuel reserves of 9.51 TCF as of July 2023, and if no new gas fields are discovered in the next 7-9 years and if the existing gas consumption rate continues, the fossil fuel reserves will be exhausted. The demand for petroleum products in Bangladesh is increasing steadily, with 63% imported by BPC and 37% imported by private companies. 61.61% of BPC imported products are used in the transport sector and 5.49% in the industrial sector, which is expensive and harmful to the environment. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) should be considered as an alternative energy for Bangladesh based on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) criteria for sustainable, clean and affordable energy. This will not only lead to the much desired mitigation of energy famine in the country but also contribute favorably to the macroeconomic indicators. Considering the environmental and economic issues, the government has referred to CNG (compressed natural gas) as the fuel carrier since 2000, but currently due to the decline mode of gas reserves, the government of Bangladesh is thinking of new energy sources for transport and industrial sectors which will be sustainable, environmentally friendly and economically viable. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) is the best choice for fueling transport and industrial sectors in Bangladesh. At present, a total of 1.54 million metric tons of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is marketed in Bangladesh by the public and private sectors. 83% of it is used by households, 12% by industry and commerce and 5% by transportation. Industrial and transport sector consumption is negligible compared to household consumption. So the purpose of the research is to find out the challenges of LPG market development in transport and industrial sectors in Bangladesh and make recommendations to reduce the challenges. Secure supply chain, inadequate infrastructure, insufficient investment, lack of government monitoring and consumer awareness in the transport sector and industrial sector are major challenges for LPG market development in Bangladesh. Bangladesh government as well as private owners should come forward in the development of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) industry to reduce the challenges of secure energy sector for sustainable development. Furthermore, ensuring adequate Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) supply in Bangladesh requires government regulations, infrastructure improvements in port areas, awareness raising and most importantly proper pricing of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) to address the energy crisis in Bangladesh.

Keywords: transportand industries fuel, LPG consumption, challenges, economical sustainability

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Authors: Ketsada Sutthiumporn, Sittichot Thongkaw, Malee Santikunaporn

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In Thailand, biodiesel has been utilized as an attractive substitute of petroleum diesel and the government imposes a mandatory biodiesel blending requirement in transport sector to improve energy security, support agricultural sector and reduce emissions. Though biodiesel blend has many advantages over diesel fuel such as improved lubricity, low sulfur content and higher flash point, there are still some technical problems such as oxidative stability, poor cold- flow properties and impurity. Such problems were related to the fatty acid composition in feedstock. Moreover, Thailand has announced the use of low sulfur diesel as a base diesel and will be continually upgrading to EURO 5 in 2023. With ultra low sulfur content, it may affect the diesel fuel properties especially lubricity as well. Therefore, in this study, the physical and chemical properties of palm oil-based biodiesel in low sulfur diesel blends from different producers will be investigated by standard methods per ASTM and EN. Also, its economic benefits based on diesel price structure in Thailand will be highlighted. The appropriate biodiesel blend ratio can affect the physico-chemical properties and reasonable price in the country. Properties of biodiesel, including specific gravity, kinematic viscosity, FAME composition, flash point, sulfur, water, oxidation stability and lubricity were measured by standard methods of ASTM and EN. The results show that the FAME composition of biodiesel has the fatty acid of C12:0 to C20:1, mostly in C16:0, C18:0, C18:1, and C18:2, which were main characteristic compositions of palm biodiesel. The physical and chemical properties of biodiesel blended diesel was found to be increases with an increasing amount of biodiesel such as specific gravity, flash point and kinematic viscosity while sulfur value was decreased. Moreover, in this study, the various properties of each biodiesel blends were plotted to determine the appropriate proportional range of biodiesel-blended diesel with an optimum fuel price.It can be seen that the amount of B100 can be filled from 1% up to 7% in which the quality was in accordance with Notification of the department of Energy business.The understanding of relation between physico-chemical properties of palm oil-based biodiesel and pricing is beneficial to guide the better development of desired feedstock in Thailand and to implement biodiesel blends with comparative price and diesel engine performance.

Keywords: fatty acid methyl ester, biodiesel, fuel price structure, palm oil in Thailand

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Authors: Deniz Ünal Özpalamutcu, Burcu Altman

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Actuaria uses mathematics, statistic and financial information when analyzing the financial impacts of uncertainties, risks, insurance and pension related issues. In other words, it deals with the likelihood of potential risks, their financial impacts and especially the financial measures. Handling these measures require some long-term payment and investments. So, it is obvious it is inevitable to plan the periodic payments with equal time intervals considering also the changing value of money over time. These series of payment made specific intervals of time is called annuity or rant. In literature, rants are classified based on start and end dates, start times, payments times, payments amount or frequency. Classification of rants based on payment amounts changes based on the constant, descending or ascending payment methods. The literature about handling the annuity is very limited. Yet in a daily life, especially in today’s world where the economic issues gained a prominence, it is very crucial to use the variable annuity method in line with the demands of the customers. In this study, the types of annuities with flexible payment are discussed. In other words, we focus on calculating payment amount of a period by adding a certain percentage of previous period payment was studied. While studying this problem, formulas were created considering both start and end period payments for cash value and accumulated. Also increase of each period payment by r interest rate each period payments calculated with previous periods increases. And the problem of annuities (rants) of which each period payment increased with previous periods’ increase by r interest rate has been analyzed. Cash value and accumulated value calculation of this problem were studied separately based on the period start/end and their relations were expressed by formulas.

Keywords: actuaria, annuity, flexible payment, rant

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Authors: Maulita Sari Hani, Abraham B. Sianipar, Jamaluddin Jompa, Natsir Nessa, Alan T. White

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Manta ray is an icon for tourism in Raja Ampat. The tourist volume has been increased for the past ten years which up to approximately 23,000 tourists in 2017. Since 2013, Conservation International Indonesia deployed satellite and acoustic tags on manta ray in Dampier strait to track the species and identify the aggregation areas. These findings encourage the government and the local community to boost conservation through the management of marine protected areas for tourism purposes. Community in Dampier strait including the village of Arborek, Kurkapa, Kapisawar, and Sawingray involved in variety of small scale tourism business including homestay, dive shop, tour operator, and crafts. Working groups of related local businesses were established to support the local community and to ensure the sustainability of the economic viability and environmental sustainability. In order to analyze the economic benefits of manta ray tourism, this study was conducted to identify the number of local business in Dampier Strait and the economic impacts in terms of local finance security, social, humanity, individual, and physical assets. The results of this study identify 30 homestays, 2 dive shops, 10 tour operators, 30 women involved in crafts, and about 50 villagers worked for dive resorts. In addition to community assets, we confirmed the welfare of community has been improved in terms of food security, households, education for children, savings, and health insurance.

Keywords: marine wildlife tourism, elasmobranch, conservation, ecotourism, co-management, economic viability, environmental sustainability

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Authors: Rosalina Penaloza, Joanna Navarro, Pauline Jolly, Anna Junkins, Carlos Seas, Larissa Otero

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Background: Tuberculosis (TB) case detection in Peru relies on passive case finding. This strategy relies on the assumption that the community is aware that a persistent cough is a possible symptom of TB and that formal health care needs to be sought. Despite its importance, health knowledge specific to TB is underexplored in Peru. This study aimed to assess health literacy and level of TB knowledge among outpatients attending a referral hospital in Lima, Peru. The goal was to ascertain knowledge gaps in key areas relating to TB, to identify and prioritize subgroups for intervention, and to provide insight for policy and community interventions considering health literacy. Methods: An observational cross-sectional study was conducted using a survey to measure sociodemographic factors, tuberculosis knowledge, and health literacy. Bivariate and Multivariate logistic regression was performed to study the associations between variables and to account for potential confounders. The study was conducted at Hospital Cayetano Heredia in Lima, Peru from June – August 2017. Results: 272 participants were included in the analysis. 57.7% knew someone who had had TB before, 9% had had TB in the past. Two weeks a cough was correctly identified as a symptom that could be TB by 69.1%. High TB knowledge was found among 149 (54.8%) participants. High health literacy was found among 193 (71.0%) participants. Health literacy and TB knowledge were not significantly associated (OR 0.9 (95%CI 0.5-1.5)). After controlling for sex, age, district, education, health insurance, frequency of hospital visits and previous TB diagnosis: High TB knowledge was associated with knowing someone with TB (aOR 2.7 (95%CI 1.6-4.7)) and being a public transport driver, (aOR 0.2 (95%CI 0.05-0.9)). Not being poor was the single factor associated with high health literacy (aOR 3.8 (95%CI 1.6-8.9)). Conclusions: TB knowledge was fair, though 30% did not know the most important symptom of TB. Tailoring educational strategies to risk groups may enhance passive case detection especially amongst transport workers in Lima, Peru.

Keywords: health literacy, Peru, tuberculosis, tuberculosis knowledge

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Authors: Kuhorfah Emmanuel Mawuli

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Generally, for firms to enhance their operational efficiency of logistics, it is imperative to assess the logistics function. The cost of logistics conventionally represents a key consideration in the pricing decisions of firms, which suggests that cost efficiency in logistics can go a long way to improve margins. Warehousing, which is a key part of logistics operations, has the prospect of influencing operational efficiency in logistics management as well as customer value, but this potential has often not been recognized. It has been found that there is a paucity of research that evaluates the efficiency of warehouses. Indeed, limited research has been conducted to examine potential barriers to effective warehousing management. Due to this paucity of research, there is limited knowledge on how to address the obstacles associated with warehousing management. In order for warehousing management to become profitable, there is the need to integrate, balance, and manage the economic inputs and outputs of the entire warehouse operations, something that many firms tend to ignore. Management of warehousing is not solely related to storage functions. Instead, effective warehousing management requires such practices as maximum possible mechanization and automation of operations, optimal use of space and capacity of storage facilities, organization through "continuous flow" of goods, a planned system of storage operations, and safety of goods. For example, there is an important need for space utilization of the warehouse surface as it is a good way to evaluate the storing operation and pick items per hour. In the setting of Mantrac Ghana, not much knowledge regarding the management of the warehouses exists. The researcher has personally observed many gaps in the management of the warehouse facilities in the case organization Mantrac Ghana. It is important, therefore, to assess the warehouse facility management of the case company with the objective of identifying weaknesses for improvement. The study employs an in-depth qualitative research approach using interviews as a mode of data collection. Respondents in the study mainly comprised warehouse facility managers in the studied company. A total of 10 participants were selected for the study using a purposive sampling strategy. Results emanating from the study demonstrate limited warehousing effectiveness in the case company. Findings further reveal that the major barriers to effective warehousing facility management comprise poor layout, poor picking optimization, labour costs, and inaccurate orders; policy implications of the study findings are finally outlined.

Keywords: assessing, warehousing, facility, management

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Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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Authors: Davie Hope Moyo

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The environment is a combination of two things: resources and hazards. One of the hazards that is a result of environmental changes is the occurrence of flooding. Floods are one of the disasters that are highly feared by people because they have a huge impact on the human population and their environment. In recent years, flooding disasters in the Nsanje district are increasing in both frequency and magnitude. This study aims to understand the root causes of this phenomenon. To understand the causes of flooding, this study focused on the case of TA Ndamera in the Nsanje district, southern Malawi. People in the Nsanje district face disruption in their day-to-day life because of floods that affect their communities. When floods happen, people lose their property, land, livestock, and even lives. The study was carried out in order to have a better understanding of the root causes of floods. The findings of this study may help the government and other development agencies to put in place mitigation measures that will make Nsanje District resilient to the occurrence of future flood hazards. Data was collected from the area of TA Ndamera in order to assess the causes of flooding in the district. Interviews, transect walks, and researcher observation was done to appreciate the topography of the district and evaluate other factors that are making the people become vulnerable to the impacts of flooding in the district. It was found that flooding in the district is mainly caused by heavy rainfall in the upper shire, settlements along river banks, deforestation, and the topography of the district in general. The research study ends by providing recommendation strategies that need to be put in place to increase the resilience of the communities to future flood hazards. The research recommends the development of indigenous knowledge systems to alert people of incoming floods, construction of evacuation centers to ease pressure on schools, savings, and insurance schemes, construction of dykes, desilting rivers, and afforestation.

Keywords: disaster causes, mitigation, safety measures, Nsanje Malawi

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Authors: Alberto Jiménez-Vargas, Manuel de Jesús Palacios-Gallegos, Miguel Ángel Hernández-López, Rafael Campos-Amezcua, Julio Cesar Solís-Sanchez

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An optimal wind turbine blade design must be able of capturing as much energy as possible from the wind source available at the area of interest. Many times, an optimal design means the use of large quantities of material and complicated processes that make the wind turbine more expensive, and therefore, less cost-effective. For the construction and installation of a wind turbine, the blades may cost up to 20% of the outline pricing, and become more important due to they are part of the rotor system that is in charge of transmitting the energy from the wind to the power train, and where the static and dynamic design loads for the whole wind turbine are produced. The aim of this work is the develop of a blade fluid-structure interaction (FSI) simulation that allows the identification of the major damage zones during the normal production situation, and thus better decisions for design and optimization can be taken. The simulation is a dynamic case, since we have a time-history wind velocity as inlet condition instead of a constant wind velocity. The process begins with the free-use software NuMAD (NREL), to model the blade and assign material properties to the blade, then the 3D model is exported to ANSYS Workbench platform where before setting the FSI system, a modal analysis is made for identification of natural frequencies and modal shapes. FSI analysis is carried out with the two-way technic which begins with a CFD simulation to obtain the pressure distribution on the blade surface, then these results are used as boundary condition for the FEA simulation to obtain the deformation levels for the first time-step. For the second time-step, CFD simulation is reconfigured automatically with the next time-step inlet wind velocity and the deformation results from the previous time-step. The analysis continues the iterative cycle solving time-step by time-step until the entire load case is completed. This work is part of a set of projects that are managed by a national consortium called “CEMIE-Eólico” (Mexican Center in Wind Energy Research), created for strengthen technological and scientific capacities, the promotion of creation of specialized human resources, and to link the academic with private sector in national territory. The analysis belongs to the design of a rotor system for a 5 kW wind turbine design thought to be installed at the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Oaxaca, Mexico.

Keywords: blade, dynamic, fsi, wind turbine

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Authors: Amalia Ardeljan, Lexi Frankel, Divesh Manjani, Gabriela Santizo, Maximillian Guerra, Omar Rashid

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Introduction: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is a widespread infection affecting between 60-70% of people in industrialized countries. CMV has been previously correlated with a higher incidence of Hodgkin Lymphoma compared to noninfected persons. Research regarding prior CMV infection and subsequent lymphoma development is still controversial. With limited evidence, further research is needed in order to understand the relationship between previous CMV infection and subsequent lymphoma development. This study assessed the effect of CMV infection and the incidence of lymphoma afterward. Methods: A retrospective cohort study (2010-2019) was conducted through a Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) compliant national database and conducted using International Classification of Disease (ICD) 9th,10th codes, and Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes. These were used to identify lymphoma diagnosis in a previously CMV infected population. Patients were matched for age range and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). A chi-squared test was used to assess statistical significance. Results: A total number of 14,303 patients was obtained in the CMV infected group as well as in the control population (matched by age range and CCI score). Subsequent lymphoma development was seen at a rate of 11.44% (1,637) in the CMV group and 5.74% (822) in the control group, respectively. The difference was statistically significant by p= 2.2x10-16, odds ratio = 2.696 (95% CI 2.483- 2.927). In an attempt to stratify the population by antiviral medication exposure, the outcomes were limited by the decreased number of members exposed to antiviral medication in the control population. Conclusion: This study shows a statistically significant correlation between prior CMV infection and an increased incidence of lymphoma afterward. Further exploration is needed to identify the potential carcinogenic mechanism of CMV and whether the results are attributed to a confounding bias.

Keywords: cytomegalovirus, lymphoma, cancer, microbiology

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Authors: Juan C. Reyes, Linnette Rodríguez, Héctor Villanueva, Jorge Vázquez, Ivonne Rivera

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On July 2020, a private non-profit community health center (HealthProMed) that serves people without a medical insurance plan or with limited resources in one of the most populated areas in San Juan, Puerto Rico, implemented a COVID-19 case investigation and contact-tracing surveillance system. Nursing personnel at the health center completed a computerized case investigation form that was translated, adapted, and modified from CDC’s Patient Under Investigation (PUI) Form. Between July 13, 2020, and March 17, 2022, a total of 9,233 SARS-CoV-2 tests were conducted at the health center, 16.9% of which were classified as confirmed cases (positive molecular test) and 27.7% as probable cases (positive serologic test). Most of the confirmed cases were females (60.0%), under 20 years old (29.1%), and living in their homes (59.1%). In the 14 days before the onset of symptoms, 26.3% of confirmed cases reported going to the supermarket, 22.4% had contact with a known COVID-19 case, and 20.7% went to work. The symptoms most commonly reported were sore throat (33.4%), runny nose (33.3%), cough (24.9%), and headache (23.2%). The most common preexisting medical conditions among confirmed cases were hypertension (19.3%), chronic lung disease including asthma, emphysema, COPD (13.3%), and diabetes mellitus (12.8). Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that patients who used alcohol frequently during the last two weeks (OR=1.43; 95%CI: 1.15-1.77), those who were in contact with a positive case (OR=1.58; 95%CI: 1.33-1.88) and those who were obese (OR=1.82; 95%CI: 1.24-2.69) were significantly more likely to be a confirmed case after controlling for sociodemographic variables. Implementing a case investigation and contact-tracing component at community health centers can be of great value in the prevention and control of COVID-19 at the community level and could be used in future outbreaks.

Keywords: community health center, Puerto Rico, risk factors, SARS-CoV-2

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Authors: Abdel-Monem Sayed Mohamed

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Egypt rapidly growing development is accompanied by increasing levels of standard living particular in its urban areas. However, there is a limited experience in quantifying the sources of risk management in Egypt and in designing efficient strategies to keep away serious impacts of earthquakes. From the historical point of view and recent instrumental records, there are some seismo-active regions in Egypt, where some significant earthquakes had occurred in different places. The special tectonic features in Egypt: Aswan, Greater Cairo, Red Sea and Sinai Peninsula regions are the territories of a high seismic risk, which have to be monitored by up-to date technologies. The investigations of the seismic events and interpretations led to evaluate the seismic hazard for disaster prevention and for the safety of the dense populated regions and the vital national projects as the High Dam. In addition to the monitoring of the recent crustal movements, the most powerful technique of satellite geodesy GPS are used where geodetic networks are covering such seismo-active regions. The results from the data sets are compared and combined in order to determine the main characteristics of the deformation and hazard estimation for specified regions. The final compiled output from the seismological and geodetic analysis threw lights upon the geodynamical regime of these seismo-active regions and put Aswan and Greater Cairo under the lowest class according to horizontal crustal strains classifications. This work will serve a basis for the development of so-called catastrophic models and can be further used for catastrophic risk management. Also, this work is trying to evaluate risk of large catastrophic losses within the important regions including the High Dam, strategic buildings and archeological sites. Studies on possible scenarios of earthquakes and losses are a critical issue for decision making in insurance as a part of mitigation measures.

Keywords: b-value, Gumbel distribution, seismic and GPS data, strain parameters

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Authors: Praveen Adusumilli, Meher Lakshmi Konatam, Sadashivudu Gundeti, Stalin Bala

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The invention of trastuzumab has changed the treatment of breast cancer and lives of many patients all over the world. Despite many patients getting benefitted from the drug, it is out of reach for most of the patients. There is very limited real world data regarding the epidemiology and clinical outcome of Her2neu positive breast cancer patients. Materials and Methods: This is a retrospective analysis of breast cancer patients presenting to a tertiary care cancer centre in Southern India from 2007 to2013. All early and locally advanced breast cancer patients, who were Her2neu 3+ on IHC are included in the study and evaluated in terms of epidemiology, 3-year disease free survival (DFS)and 5-year overall survival(OS). Chemotherapy regimens used were-FAC 6 cycles or AC 4 cycles followed by 12 cycles of weekly paclitaxel . Trastuzumab was given after 6 cycles of FAC or weekly with paclitaxel followed by 3weekly maintenance until 1 year. Results: Over the period of this study there were 885 newly diagnosed cases of carcinoma breast, of which 242 (27%) were Her2neu positive, 360(40%) were hormone receptor positive, and 212(24%) were triple negative. A total of 71(8%) were Her2neu equivocal of which only 10 patients got FISH test done. Of the 212 newly diagnosed patients, only 74 (29%) opted to have standard of care therapy with trastuzumab at our centre, out of which 52(24%), 8(3%), received under insurance, paying basis respectively. 14(9%) patients received the care as part of clinical trial program (ALTTO trial). 7 (9.72%) patients developed decrease of ejection fraction by greater than 10%, requiring stoppage of trastuzumab out of which 5 were restarted in 2 months. Patients receiving trastuzumab along with chemotherapy had longer 3year DFS 92% vs. 60% (p value<0.0001) when compared to chemotherapy alone. 5 year OS was 87% vs 44% (p-value <0.0001) compared to chemotherapy alone. Conclusion: Trastuzumab with chemotherapy improves the DFS and OS in Her2neu positive patients. The biggest constraint is the cost of the treatment and absence of universal health security net to treat all patients with this diagnosis.

Keywords: breast cancer, Her 2 neu positive, real world data, Trastuzumab

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Authors: Todor Nickolov Stoyanov

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Cooperatives are present in all countries and in almost all sectors, including agriculture, forestry, food, finance, health, marketing, insurance and credit. Strong cooperatives are able to overcome many of the difficulties faced by private owners. Cooperatives use seven principles, including the 'Community Concern" principle, which enables cooperatives to work for the sustainable development of the community. The members of cooperatives may use different systems for generating year-round employment and for receiving sustainable income through performing different forestry activities. Various methods are used during the preparation of the report. These include literature reviews, statistics, secondary data and expert interviews. The members of the cooperatives are benefits exclusively from increasing the efficiency of the various products and from the overall yield of the harvest, and ultimately from achieving better profit through cooperative efforts. Cooperatives also use other types of activities that are an additional opportunity for cooperative income. There are many heterogeneous activities in the production and service sectors of the forest cooperatives under consideration. Some cooperatives serve dairies, distilleries, woodworking enterprises, tourist homes, hotels and motels, shops, ski slopes, sheep breeding, etc. Through the revenue generated by the activity, cooperatives have the opportunity to carry out various environmental and protective activities - recreation, water protection, protection of endangered and endemic species, etc., which in the case of small-scale forests cannot be achieved and the management is not sustainable. The conclusions indicate the results received in the analysis. Cooperative management of forests and forest lands gives higher incomes to individual owners. The management of forests and forest lands through cooperatives helps to carry out different environmental and protective activities. Cooperative forest management provides additional means of subsistence to the owners of poor forest lands. Cooperative management of forests and forest lands support owners to implement the forest management plans and to apply sustainable management of these territories.

Keywords: cooperative, forestry, forest owners, principles of cooperation

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Authors: Mohkammad Nur Cahyadi, Hepi Hapsari Handayani, Agus Budi Raharjo, Ronny Mardianto, Daud Wahyu Imani, Arizal Bawazir, Luki Adi Triawan

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PDAM (local water company) determines customer charges by considering the customer's building or house. Charges determination significantly affects PDAM income and customer costs because the PDAM applies a subsidy policy for customers classified as small households. Periodic updates are needed so that pricing is in line with the target. A thorough customer survey in Surabaya is needed to update customer building data. However, the survey that has been carried out so far has been by deploying officers to conduct one-by-one surveys for each PDAM customer. Surveys with this method require a lot of effort and cost. For this reason, this research offers a technology called moblie mapping, a mapping method that is more efficient in terms of time and cost. The use of this tool is also quite simple, where the device will be installed in the car so that it can record the surrounding buildings while the car is running. Mobile mapping technology generally uses lidar sensors equipped with GNSS, but this technology requires high costs. In overcoming this problem, this research develops low-cost mobile mapping technology using a webcam camera sensor added to the GNSS and IMU sensors. The camera used has specifications of 3MP with a resolution of 720 and a diagonal field of view of 78⁰. The principle of this invention is to integrate four camera sensors, a GNSS webcam, and GPS to acquire photo data, which is equipped with location data (latitude, longitude) and IMU (roll, pitch, yaw). This device is also equipped with a tripod and a vacuum cleaner to attach to the car's roof so it doesn't fall off while running. The output data from this technology will be analyzed with artificial intelligence to reduce similar data (Cosine Similarity) and then classify building types. Data reduction is used to eliminate similar data and maintain the image that displays the complete house so that it can be processed for later classification of buildings. The AI method used is transfer learning by utilizing a trained model named VGG-16. From the analysis of similarity data, it was found that the data reduction reached 50%. Then georeferencing is done using the Google Maps API to get address information according to the coordinates in the data. After that, geographic join is done to link survey data with customer data already owned by PDAM Surya Sembada Surabaya.

Keywords: mobile mapping, GNSS, IMU, similarity, classification

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Authors: Lloyd B. Ranises

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The Philippine labor force has been affected by the pandemic recently. The situation was added by the high inflation rate, which makes matter worse. Since the Philippines has a new government after the 2022 national election, the labor condition under the previous government has been passed on to the new one. To understand the labor challenges the present government faces, this study revisits the labor conditions and responses of the previous government from 2016 to 2022. Thus, this study reviews the labor force of the Philippines within the time frame. It explores the challenges in the labor market and examines government policy. This study uses secondary sources in tracing the labor conditions and government actions that addressed them. The Literatures are consolidated to see its relevance to the new government’s labor policy. This study found that the labor force had a sluggish growth earlier until 2018 and thrived on but was affected by the pandemic. By 2020, the National Capital Region’s labor force dropped, although, after which, it begins to thrive again, showing recovery. However, its composition is much more complex. Cognitive skill is high in demand that requires tertiary education. But the production of goods and services is low in the scientific workforce in addition to the mismatch between position and profession. Moreover, Philippine labor has poor female participation. In addition to these complexities, the agricultural rural areas have high underemployment, which implies surplus labor of low skill. Overseas employment, on the other, is significant to the decrease in domestic production. The major responses of the previous government, by far, have been focused on the minimum wage increase and the social services and health insurance, which are appropriate to the post-pandemic needs. Yet still, some issues are unattended. This study concludes that the previous government’s policy needs to be fleshed out substantially. It necessitates that the new administration shall consider encompassing all aspects of the Philippine labor force to sustain and strengthen the economy of the country.

Keywords: cognitive skills, minimum wage, national capital region, underemployment

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Authors: Camila Plaza, Stefan Felder

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In October 2014, the TARMED reform was implemented in Switzerland. In an effort to even out the financial standing of general practitioners (including pediatricians) relative to that of specialists in the outpatient sector, the reform tackled two aspects: on the one hand, GPs would be able to bill an additional 9 CHF per patient, once per consult per day. This is referred to as the surcharge position. As a second measure, it reduced the fees for certain technical services targeted to specialists (e.g., imaging, surgical technical procedures, etc.). Given the fee-for-service reimbursement system in Switzerland, we predict that physicians reacted to the economic incentives of the reform by increasing the consults per patient and decreasing the average amount of time per consult. Within this framework, our treatment group is formed by GPs and our control group by those specialists who were not affected by the reform. Using monthly insurance claims panel data aggregated at the physician praxis level (provided by SASIS AG), for the period of January 2013-December 2015, we run difference in difference panel data models with physician and time fixed effects in order to test for the causal effects of the reform. We account for seasonality, and control for physician characteristics such as age, gender, specialty, and physician experience. Furthermore, we run the models on subgroups of physicians within our sample so as to account for heterogeneity and treatment intensities. Preliminary results support our hypothesis. We find evidence of an increase in consults per patients and a decrease in time per consult. Robustness checks do not significantly alter the results for our outcome variable of consults per patient. However, we do find a smaller effect of the reform for time per consult. Thus, the results of this paper could provide policymakers a better understanding of physician behavior and their sensitivity to financial incentives of reforms (both past and future) under the current reimbursement system.

Keywords: difference in differences, financial incentives, health reform, physician behavior

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Authors: Daniela Prado, Lexi Frankel, Amalia Ardeljan, Lokesh Manjani, Matthew Cardeiro, Omar Rashid

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Background: Clostridium difficile (C. diff) is a gram-positive bacterium that is known to cause life-threatening diarrhea and severe inflammation of the colon. It originates as an alteration of the gut microbiome and can be transmitted through spores. Recent studies have shown a high association between the development of C. diff in cancer patients due to extensive hospitalization. However, research is lacking regarding C. diff’s association in the causation or prevention of cancer. The objective of this study was to therefore assess the correlation between Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) and the incidence of bone cancer. Methods: This retrospective analysis used data provided by a Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) compliant national database to evaluate the patients infected versus patients not infected with C. diff using ICD-10 and ICD-9 codes. Access to the database was granted by the Holy Cross Health, Fort Lauderdale, for the purpose of academic research. Standard statistical methods were used. Results: Between January 2010 and December 2019, the query was analyzed and resulted in 78863 patients in both the infected and control group, respectively. The two groups were matched by age range and CCI score. The incidence of bone cancer was 659 patients (0.835%) in the C. diff group compared to 1941 patients (2.461%) in the control group. The difference was statistically significant by a P-value < 2.2x10^-16 with an odds ratio (OR)= 0.33 (0.31-0.37) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). Treatment for CDI was analyzed for both C. diff infected and noninfected populations. 91 out of 16,676 (0.55%) patients with a prior C. diff infection and treated with antibiotics were compared to the control group were 275 out of 16,676 (1.65%) patients with no history of CDI and received antibiotic treatment. Results remained statistically significant by P-value <2.2x10-16 with an OR= 0.42 (0.37, 0.48). and a 95% CI. Conclusion: The study shows a statistically significant correlation between C. diff and a reduced incidence of bone cancer. Further evaluation is recommended to assess the potential of C. difficile in reducing bone cancer incidence.

Keywords: bone cancer, colitis, clostridium difficile, microbiome

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Authors: Scott A. Abbott

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This paper examines the increase in the occurrence of natural disasters worldwide and the need to support vulnerable communities in post-disaster recovery. Preparation and implementation of post-disaster recovery projects need to be improved to allow communities to recover infrastructure, housing, economically and socially following a catastrophe. With the continual rise in catastrophic events worldwide due to climate change, impacts on construction resources affect the ability for post-disaster recovery to be undertaken. This research focuses on case studies of catastrophic events in Queensland, Australia, to contribute to the body of knowledge and gain valuable insights on lessons learned from past events and how they have been managed. The aim of this research is to adopt qualitative data using semi-structured interviews from participants predominantly from the insurance sector to understand barriers that have previously and currently exist in post-disaster recovery. Existing literature was reviewed to reveal gaps in knowledge that needed to be tested. Qualitative data was collected and summarised from field research with the results analysed and discussed. Barriers that impacted post-disaster recovery included time, cost, and resource capability and capacity. Causal themes that impacted time and cost were identified as decision making, pre-planning, and preparedness, as well as effective communication across stakeholders. The research study applied a qualitative approach to the existing literature and case studies across Queensland, Australia, to identify existing and new barriers that impact post-disaster recovery. It was recommended to implement effective procurement strategies to assist in cost control; implement pre-planning and preparedness strategies across funder, contractor, and local governments; more effective and timely decision making to reduce time and cost impacts.

Keywords: construction recovery, cost, disaster recovery, resources, time

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Authors: Vanessa Castro, Liria H. Okuda, Daniela P. Chiebao, Adriana H. C. N. Romaldini, Harumi Hojo, Marina Grandi, Joao Paulo A. Silva, Alessandra F. C. Nassar

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The Biological Institute of Sao Paulo, in partnership with a private company, develops an Animal Health Family Farming Program (Prosaf) to enable communication among smallholder farmers and scientists, on-farm consulting and lectures, solving health questions that will benefit agricultural productivity. In Vale do Paraiba region, a dairy region of Sao Paulo State, southern Brazil, many of these types of farms are found with several milk quality problems. Most of these farms are profit-based business; however, with non-technified cattle rearing systems and uncertain veterinary assistance. Feedback from Prosaf showed that the biggest complaints from farmers were low milk production, sick animals and, mainly, loss of selling price due to a high somatic cell count (SCC) and a total bacterial count (TBC). The aims of this study were to improve milk quality, animal hygiene and herd health status by adjustments into general management practices and introducing techniques of sanitary control and milk monitoring in five dairy farms from Sao Jose do Barreiro municipality, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, to increase their profits. A total of 119 milk samples from 56 animals positive for California Mastitis Test (CMT) were collected. The positive CMT indicates subclinical mastitis, therefore laboratorial exams were performed in the milk (microbiological, biochemical and antibiogram test) detect the presence of Staphylococcus aureus (41.8%), Bacillus sp. (11.8%), Streptococcus sp. (2.1%), nonfermenting, motile and oxidase-negative Gram-negative Bacilli (2.1%) and Enterobacter (2.1%). Antibiograms revealed high resistance to gentamicin and streptomycin, probably due to indiscriminate use of antibiotics without veterinarian prescription. We suggested the improvement of hygiene management in the complete milking and cooling tanks system. Using the results of the laboratory tests, animals were properly treated, and the effects observed were better CMT outcomes, lower SCCs, and TBCs leading to an increase in milk pricing. This study will have a positive impact on the family farmers from Sao Paulo State dairy region by improving their market milk competitiveness.

Keywords: milk, family farming, food quality, antibiogram, profitability

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Authors: Muhammad Afzal, Shahbaz Mushtaq, Duc-Anh-An-Vo, Kathryn Reardon Smith, Thanh Ma

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Climate change has become one of the most challenging environmental issues in the 21st century. Climate change-induced natural disasters, especially floods, are the major factors of livelihood vulnerability, impacting millions of individuals worldwide. Evaluating and mitigating the effects of floods requires an in-depth understanding of the relationship between vulnerability and livelihood capital assets. Using an integrated approach, sustainable livelihood framework, and system thinking approach, the study developed a conceptual model of a generalized livelihood system in District Rajanpur, Pakistan. The model visualizes the livelihood vulnerability system as a whole and identifies the key feedback loops likely to influence the livelihood vulnerability. The study suggests that such conceptual models provide effective communication and understanding tools to stakeholders and decision-makers to anticipate the problem and design appropriate policies. It can also serve as an evaluation technique for rural livelihood policy and identify key systematic interventions. The key finding of the study reveals that household income, health, and education are the major factors behind the livelihood vulnerability of the rural poor of District Rajanpur. The Pakistani government tried to reduce the livelihood vulnerability of the region through different income, health, and education programs, but still, many changes are required to make these programs more effective especially during the flood times. The government provided only cash to vulnerable and marginalized families through income support programs, but this study suggests that along with the cash, the government must provide seed storage facilities and access to crop insurance to the farmers. Similarly, the government should establish basic health units in villages and frequent visits of medical mobile vans should be arranged with advanced medical lab facilities during and after the flood.

Keywords: livelihood vulnerability, rural communities, flood, sustainable livelihood framework, system dynamics, Pakistan

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Authors: Wee Tong Liaw, Elaine Wong Yee Sing

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The main objective and focus of this study are to establish the significance of a sustained health promoting workplace on stock and portfolio returns focusing on companies listed on the Singapore stock exchange, using a two-factor model comprising of the single factor CAPM and a 'health promoting workplace' factor. The 'health promoting workplace' factor represents the excess returns derived between two portfolios of component stocks that, when combined, would represent a top tier stock market index in Singapore, namely the STI index. The first portfolio represents companies that are independently assessed by the Singapore’s Health Award, SHA, to have a sustained and comprehensive health promoting workplace (SHA-STI portfolio) and the second portfolio represents companies that had not been independently assessed (Non-SHA STI portfolio). Since 2001, many companies in Singapore have voluntarily participated in the bi-annual Singapore HEALTH Award initiated by the Health Promotion Board of Singapore (HPB). The Singapore HEALTH Award (SHA), is an industry-wide award and assessment process. SHA assesses and recognizes employers in Singapore for implementing a comprehensive and sustainable health promotion programme at their workplaces. When using a ten year holding period instead of a one year holding period, excess returns in the SHA-STI portfolio over Non-SHA STI portfolio were consistently being observed over all test periods, during 2001 to 2013. In addition, when applied to the SHA-STI portfolio, results from the Two Factor Model consistently revealed higher explanatory powers across all test periods for the portfolio as well as all the individual component stocks in SHA-STI portfolio, than the single factor CAPM model. However, with respect to attaining higher level of achievement in the Singapore Health Award, this study did not show any incentive for selecting listed companies that have achieved a higher level of award. Results from this study would give further insights to investors and fund managers alike who intend to consider health promoting workplace as a risk factor in their stock or portfolio selection process, in particular for investors who have a preference for STI’s component stocks and with a longer investment horizon. Key micro factors like management abilities, business development strategies and production capabilities that meet the needs of market would create the demand for a company’s product(s) or service(s) and consequently contribute to its top line and profitability. Thereafter, the existence of a sustainable health promoting workplace would be a key catalytic factor in sustaining a productive workforce needed to support the continued success of a profitable business.

Keywords: asset pricing model, company's performance, stock returns, financial risk factor, sustained health promoting workplace

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Authors: Ana Hol

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We live in a constantly changing environment where technology has become an integral component of our day to day life. We rely heavily on mobile devices, we search for data via web, we utilise smart home sensors to create the most suited ambiences and we utilise applications to shop, research, communicate and share data. Heavy reliance on technology therefore is creating new connections between STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) fields which in turn rises a question of what the STEM education of the future should be like? This study was based on the reviews of the six Australian Information Systems students who undertook an international study tour to India where they were given an opportunity to network, communicate and meet local students, staff and business representatives and from them learn about the local business implementations, local customs and regulations. Research identifies that if we are to continue to implement and utilise electronic devices on the global scale, such as for example implement smart cars that can smoothly cross borders, we will need the workforce that will have the knowledge about the cars themselves, their parts, roads and transport networks, road rules, road sensors, road monitoring technologies, graphical user interfaces, movement detection systems as well as day to day operations, legal rules and regulations of each region and country, insurance policies, policing and processes so that the wide array of sensors can be controlled across country’s borders. In conclusion, it can be noted that allowing students to learn about the local conditions, roads, operations, business processes, customs and values in different countries is giving students a cutting edge advantage as such knowledge cannot be transferred via electronic sources alone. However once understanding of each problem or project is established, multidisciplinary innovative STEM projects can be smoothly conducted.

Keywords: STEM, curiosity, innovation, advancements

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Authors: Kay Fielden, Eelin Tan, Lan Nguyen

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In this research project, data was gathered at a Covid 19 Conference held in June 2021 from industry leaders who discussed the impact of the global pandemic on the status of the New Zealand hospitality industry. Panel discussions on financials, human resources, health and safety, and recovery were conducted. The themes explored for the finance panel were customer demographics, hospitality sectors, financial practices, government impact, and cost of compliance. The aim was to see how the hospitality industry has responded to the global pandemic and the steps that have been taken for the industry to recover or sustain their business. The main research question for this qualitative study is: What are the factors that have impacted on finance for the hospitality industry in New Zealand due to Covid 19? For financials, literature has been gathered to study global effects, and this is being compared with the data gathered from the discussion panel through the lens of resilience theory. Resilience theory applied to the hospitality industry suggests that the challenges imposed by Covid 19 have been the catalyst for government initiatives, technical innovation, engaging local communities, and boosting confidence. Transformation arising from these ground shifts have been a move towards sustainability, wellbeing, more awareness of climate change, and community engagement. Initial findings suggest that there has been a shift in customer base that has prompted regional accommodation providers to realign offers and to become more flexible to attract and maintain this realigned customer base. Dynamic pricing structures have been required to meet changing customer demographics. Flexible staffing arrangements include sharing staff between different accommodation providers, owners with multiple properties adopting different staffing arrangements, maintaining a good working relationship with the bank, and conserving cash. Uncertain times necessitate changing revenue strategies to cope with external factors. Financial support offered by the government has cushioned the financial downturn for many in the hospitality industry, and managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ) arrangements have offered immediate financial relief for those hotels involved. However, there is concern over the long-term effects. Compliance with mandated health and safety requirements has meant that the hospitality industry has streamlined its approach to meeting those requirements and has invested in customer relations to keep paying customers informed of the health measures in place. Initial findings from this study lie within the resilience theory framework and are consistent with findings from the literature.

Keywords: global pandemic, hospitality industry, new Zealand, resilience

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Authors: Molnar Catalina, Lexi Frankel, Amalia Ardeljan, Enoch Kim, Marissa Dallara, Omar Rashid

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Introduction: Clostridium difficile (C. diff) is a toxin-producing bacteria that can cause diarrhea and colitis. U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention revealed that C. difficile infection (CDI) has increased from 31 cases per 100,000 persons per year in 1996 to 61 per 100,000 in 2003. Approximately 500,000 cases per year occur in the United States. After exposure, the bacteria colonize the colon, where it adheres to the intestinal epithelium where it produces two toxins: TcdA and TcdB. TcdA affects the intestinal epithelium, causing fluid secretion, inflammation, and tissue necrosis, while TcdB acts as a cytotoxin purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between C diff infection and bronchial lung cancer development. Methods: Using ICD- 9 and ICD-10 codes, the data was provided by a Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) compliant national database to assess the patients infected with C diff as opposed to the non-infected patients. The Holy Cross Health, Fort Lauderdale, granted access to the database for the purpose of academic research. Patients were matched for age and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). Standard statistical methods were used. Results: Bronchial lung cancer occurrence in the population not infected with C diff infection was 4741, as opposed to the population infected with C. diff, where 2039 cases of lung cancer were observed. The difference was statistically significant (p-value < 2.2x10^e-16), which reveals that C diff might be protective against bronchial lung cancer. The data was then matched by treatment to create to minimize the effect of treatment bias. Bronchial cancer incidence was 422 and 861 in infected vs. non-infected (p-value of < 2.2x10^e-16), which once more indicates that C diff infection could be beneficial in diminishing bronchial cancer development. Conclusion: This retrospective study conveys a statistical correlation between C diff infection and decreased incidence of lung bronchial cancer. Further studies are needed to comprehend the protective mechanisms of C. Diff infection on lung cancer.

Keywords: C. diff, lung cancer, protective, microbiology

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Authors: M. Qamarul Islam, Ergun Dogan, Mehmet Yazici

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There is a growing body of evidence that non-normal data is more prevalent in nature than the normal one. Examples can be quoted from, but not restricted to, the areas of Economics, Finance and Actuarial Science. The non-normality considered here is expressed in terms of fat-tailedness and asymmetry of the relevant distribution. In this study a skew t distribution that can be used to model a data that exhibit inherent non-normal behavior is considered. This distribution has tails fatter than a normal distribution and it also exhibits skewness. Although maximum likelihood estimates can be obtained by solving iteratively the likelihood equations that are non-linear in form, this can be problematic in terms of convergence and in many other respects as well. Therefore, it is preferred to use the method of modified maximum likelihood in which the likelihood estimates are derived by expressing the intractable non-linear likelihood equations in terms of standardized ordered variates and replacing the intractable terms by their linear approximations obtained from the first two terms of a Taylor series expansion about the quantiles of the distribution. These estimates, called modified maximum likelihood estimates, are obtained in closed form. Hence, they are easy to compute and to manipulate analytically. In fact the modified maximum likelihood estimates are equivalent to maximum likelihood estimates, asymptotically. Even in small samples the modified maximum likelihood estimates are found to be approximately the same as maximum likelihood estimates that are obtained iteratively. It is shown in this study that the modified maximum likelihood estimates are not only unbiased but substantially more efficient than the commonly used moment estimates or the least square estimates that are known to be biased and inefficient in such cases. Furthermore, in conventional regression analysis, it is assumed that the error terms are distributed normally and, hence, the well-known least square method is considered to be a suitable and preferred method for making the relevant statistical inferences. However, a number of empirical researches have shown that non-normal errors are more prevalent. Even transforming and/or filtering techniques may not produce normally distributed residuals. Here, a study is done for multiple linear regression models with random error having non-normal pattern. Through an extensive simulation it is shown that the modified maximum likelihood estimates of regression parameters are plausibly robust to the distributional assumptions and to various data anomalies as compared to the widely used least square estimates. Relevant tests of hypothesis are developed and are explored for desirable properties in terms of their size and power. The tests based upon modified maximum likelihood estimates are found to be substantially more powerful than the tests based upon least square estimates. Several examples are provided from the areas of Economics and Finance where such distributions are interpretable in terms of efficient market hypothesis with respect to asset pricing, portfolio selection, risk measurement and capital allocation, etc.

Keywords: least square estimates, linear regression, maximum likelihood estimates, modified maximum likelihood method, non-normality, robustness

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