Search results for: underestimation errors

Authors: T. C. Bera, A. Bansal, D. Nema

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During performing turning operation, cutting force plays a significant role in metal cutting process affecting tool-work piece deflection, vibration and eventually part quality. The present research work aims to develop a mechanistic cutting force model and to study the mechanistic constants used in the force model in case of turning operation. The proposed model can be used for the reliable and accurate estimation of the cutting forces establishing relationship of various force components (cutting force and feed force) with uncut chip thickness. The accurate estimation of cutting force is required to improve thin-walled part accuracy by controlling the tool-work piece deflection induced surface errors and tool-work piece vibration.

Keywords: turning, cutting forces, cutting constants, uncut chip thickness

Procedia PDF Downloads 522

Authors: Johanna Renny Octavia, Meliana Nurdin, Ignatius Kevin Kurniawan, Ricca Aksara

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It is widely believed that usability evaluation is necessary to evaluate a website design for further improvement. Traditional methods of usability evaluation have given sufficient insights to reveal usability problems of websites. Eye-tracking analysis has been considered as a useful method that adds a powerful dimension to web usability evaluation. It allows web designers and usability researchers to understand exactly what users do and do not see on a web page, thus disclose more information on web usability and provide a more complete insights on a website design. This paper elaborates on moving beyond traditional methods of web usability evaluation by integrating eye-tracking analysis to enhance the evaluation of website design, and presents three case studies to support this approach. In these case studies, eye movement metrics such as gaze plots and fixation-derived metrics, and user performance data such as task completion times and number of errors were recorded as objective measurements that can inform the necessity for website design improvements.

Keywords: design, eye-tracking, usability evaluation, website

Procedia PDF Downloads 303

Authors: Sorayya Malek, Mogeeb Mosleh, Sharifah M. Syed

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In this study, Support Vector Machine (SVM) technique was applied to predict the dichotomized value of Dissolved oxygen (DO) from two freshwater lakes namely Chini and Bera Lake (Malaysia). Data sample contained 11 parameters for water quality features from year 2005 until 2009. All data parameters were used to predicate the dissolved oxygen concentration which was dichotomized into 3 different levels (High, Medium, and Low). The input parameters were ranked, and forward selection method was applied to determine the optimum parameters that yield the lowest errors, and highest accuracy. Initial results showed that pH, water temperature, and conductivity are the most important parameters that significantly affect the predication of DO. Then, SVM model was applied using the Anova kernel with those parameters yielded 74% accuracy rate. We concluded that using SVM models to predicate the DO is feasible, and using dichotomized value of DO yields higher prediction accuracy than using precise DO value.

Keywords: dissolved oxygen, water quality, predication DO, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Adriana Postal, Silvio C. Sampaio, Marcio A. Villas Boas, Josué P. Castro

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This study deals with the estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) in an agricultural context, focusing on efficient irrigation management to meet the growing interest in the sustainable management of water resources. Given the importance of water in agriculture and its scarcity in many regions, efficient use of this resource is essential to ensure food security and environmental sustainability. The methodology used involved the application of artificial intelligence techniques, specifically Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), to predict ET₀ in the state of Paraná, Brazil. The models were trained and validated with meteorological data from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), together with data obtained from a producer's weather station in the western region of Paraná. Two optimizers (SGD and Adam) and different meteorological variables, such as temperature, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed, were explored as inputs to the models. Nineteen configurations with different input variables were tested; amidst them, configuration 9, with 8 input variables, was identified as the most efficient of all. Configuration 10, with 4 input variables, was considered the most effective, considering the smallest number of variables. The main conclusions of this study show that MLP ANNs are capable of accurately estimating ET₀, providing a valuable tool for irrigation management in agriculture. Both configurations (9 and 10) showed promising performance in predicting ET₀. The validation of the models with cultivator data underlined the practical relevance of these tools and confirmed their generalization ability for different field conditions. The results of the statistical metrics, including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Coefficient of Determination (R²), showed excellent agreement between the model predictions and the observed data, with MAE as low as 0.01 mm/day and 0.03 mm/day, respectively. In addition, the models achieved an R² between 0.99 and 1, indicating a satisfactory fit to the real data. This agreement was also confirmed by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which evaluates the agreement of the predictions with the statistical behavior of the real data and yields values between 0.02 and 0.04 for the producer data. In addition, the results of this study suggest that the developed technique can be applied to other locations by using specific data from these sites to further improve ET₀ predictions and thus contribute to sustainable irrigation management in different agricultural regions. The study has some limitations, such as the use of a single ANN architecture and two optimizers, the validation with data from only one producer, and the possible underestimation of the influence of seasonality and local climate variability. An irrigation management application using the most efficient models from this study is already under development. Future research can explore different ANN architectures and optimization techniques, validate models with data from multiple producers and regions, and investigate the model's response to different seasonal and climatic conditions.

Keywords: agricultural technology, neural networks in agriculture, water efficiency, water use optimization

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Authors: T. Sanches, K. Bousson

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As part of the development of a 4D autopilot system for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), i.e. a time-dependent robust trajectory generation and control algorithm, this work addresses the problem of optimal path control based on the flight sensors data output that may be unreliable due to noise on data acquisition and/or transmission under certain circumstances. Although several filtering methods, such as the Kalman-Bucy filter or the Linear Quadratic Gaussian/Loop Transfer Recover Control (LQG/LTR), are available, the utter complexity of the control system, together with the robustness and reliability required of such a system on a UAV for airworthiness certifiable autonomous flight, required the development of a proper robust filter for a nonlinear system, as a way of further mitigate errors propagation to the control system and improve its ,performance. As such, a nonlinear algorithm based upon the LQG/LTR, is validated through computational simulation testing, is proposed on this paper.

Keywords: autonomous flight, LQG/LTR, nonlinear state estimator, robust flight control

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Authors: Mohamad Baqer Heidari, Hefzollah.Mohammadian

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This brief presents two original implementations of improved accuracy current-mode multiplier/divider circuits. Besides the advantage of their simplicity, these original multiplier/divider structures present the advantage of very small linearity errors that can be obtained as a result of the proposed design techniques (0.75% and 0.9%, respectively, for an extended range of the input currents). The original multiplier/divider circuits permit a facile reconfiguration, the presented structures representing the functional basis for implementing complex function synthesizer circuits. The proposed computational structures are designed for implementing in 0.18-µm CMOS technology, with a low-voltage operation (a supply voltage of 1.2 V). The circuits’ power consumptions are 60 and 75 µW, respectively, while their frequency bandwidths are 79.6 and 59.7 MHz, respectively.

Keywords: analog signal processing, current-mode operation, functional core, multiplier, reconfigurable circuits, industrial package systems

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Authors: Leah Wilck

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Eyewitness identification is arguably one of the most utilized practices within our legal system; however, exoneration cases indicate that this practice may lead to accuracy and conviction errors. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of the cross-race effect, the phenomena in which people are able to more easily and accurately identify faces from within their racial category, on the accuracy of eyewitness identification. Participants watched three separate videos of a perpetrator trying to steal a bicycle. In each video, the perpetrator was of a different race and gender. Participants watched a video where the perpetrator was a Black male, a White male, and a White female. Following the completion of watching each video, participants were asked to recall everything they could about the perpetrator they witnessed. The initial results of the study did not find the expected cross-race effect impacted the eyewitness identification accuracy. These surprising results are discussed in terms of cross-race bias and recognition theory as well as applied implications.

Keywords: cross race effect, eyewitness identification, own-race bias, racial profiling

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Authors: Nouha Mhimdi, Wahiba Ben Abdessalem Karaa, Henda Ben Ghezala

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The methods identified in data collection are diverse: electronic media, focus group interviews and short-answer questionnaires [1]. The collection of poor-quality data resulting, for example, from poorly designed questionnaires, the absence of good translators or interpreters, and the incorrect recording of data allow conclusions to be drawn that are not supported by the data or to focus only on the average effect of the program or policy. There are several solutions to avoid or minimize the most frequent errors, including obtaining expert advice on the design or adaptation of data collection instruments; or use technologies allowing better "anonymity" in the responses [2]. In this context, we opted to collect good quality data by doing a sizeable questionnaire-based survey on hospital emergencies to improve emergency services and alleviate the problems encountered. At the level of this paper, we will present our study, and we will detail the steps followed to achieve the collection of relevant, consistent and practical data.

Keywords: data collection, survey, questionnaire, database, data analysis, hospital emergencies

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Authors: Karolina Wieczorek, Sophie Wiliams

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Introduction: Patient data is often collected in Electronic Health Record Systems (EHR) for purposes such as providing care as well as reporting data. This information can be re-used to validate data models in clinical trials or in epidemiological studies. Manual validation of automated tools is vital to pick up errors in processing and to provide confidence in the output. Mentioning a disease in a discharge letter does not necessarily mean that a patient suffers from this disease. Many of them discuss a diagnostic process, different tests, or discuss whether a patient has a certain disease. The COVID-19 dataset in this study used natural language processing (NLP), an automated algorithm which extracts information related to COVID-19 symptoms, complications, and medications prescribed within the hospital. Free-text patient clinical patient notes are rich sources of information which contain patient data not captured in a structured form, hence the use of named entity recognition (NER) to capture additional information. Methods: Patient data (discharge summary letters) were exported and screened by an algorithm to pick up relevant terms related to COVID-19. Manual validation of automated tools is vital to pick up errors in processing and to provide confidence in the output. A list of 124 Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine (SNOMED) Clinical Terms has been provided in Excel with corresponding IDs. Two independent medical student researchers were provided with a dictionary of SNOMED list of terms to refer to when screening the notes. They worked on two separate datasets called "A” and "B”, respectively. Notes were screened to check if the correct term had been picked-up by the algorithm to ensure that negated terms were not picked up. Results: Its implementation in the hospital began on March 31, 2020, and the first EHR-derived extract was generated for use in an audit study on June 04, 2020. The dataset has contributed to large, priority clinical trials (including International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) by bulk upload to REDcap research databases) and local research and audit studies. Successful sharing of EHR-extracted datasets requires communicating the provenance and quality, including completeness and accuracy of this data. The results of the validation of the algorithm were the following: precision (0.907), recall (0.416), and F-score test (0.570). Percentage enhancement with NLP extracted terms compared to regular data extraction alone was low (0.3%) for relatively well-documented data such as previous medical history but higher (16.6%, 29.53%, 30.3%, 45.1%) for complications, presenting illness, chronic procedures, acute procedures respectively. Conclusions: This automated NLP algorithm is shown to be useful in facilitating patient data analysis and has the potential to be used in more large-scale clinical trials to assess potential study exclusion criteria for participants in the development of vaccines.

Keywords: automated, algorithm, NLP, COVID-19

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Authors: Jacquelene Swanepoel, J. C. Visagie, H. M. Linde

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Purpose: The aim of this article is to investigate the psychosocial risk environment influencing employee behaviour, and subsequently the trust relationship between employer and employee. Design/methodology/approach: The unique nature and commonness of negative acts, such as unsafe behaviour, human errors, poor performance and negligence, also referred to as unsafe practice, are explored. A literature review is formulated to investigate the nature of negative acts or unsafe behaviour. The findings of this study are used to draw comparisons between unsafe behaviour/misconduct and accidents in the workplace and finally conclude how it should be addressed from a labour relations point of view. Findings: The results indicate comparisons between unsafe practice/misconduct and occupational injuries and accidents, as a result of system flaws, human error or psychosocial risk.

Keywords: occupational risks, unsafe practice, misconduct, organisational safety culture, ergonomics, management commitment and leadership, labour relations

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Authors: Ahmad Forouzantabar, Mohammad Azadi

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This paper presents sliding mode controller for bilateral teleoperation systems with robotic master and slave under constant communication delays. We extend the passivity-based coordination architecture to enhance position and force tracking in the presence of offset in initial conditions, environmental contacts and unknown parameters such as friction coefficient. To address these difficulties, a nonlinear sliding mode controller is designed to approximate the nonlinear dynamics of master and slave robots and improve both position and force tracking. Using the Lyapunov theory, the boundedness of master- slave tracking errors and the stability of the teleoperation system are also guaranteed. Numerical simulations show that proposed controller position and force tracking performances are superior to that of conventional coordination controller tracking performances.

Keywords: Lyapunov stability, teleoperation system, time delay, sliding mode controller

Procedia PDF Downloads 385

Authors: Temiloluwa J. Akinyemi, Denis W. Aheto, Wisdom Akpalu

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Capture fisheries in developing countries provide significant animal protein and directly supports the livelihoods of several communities. However, the misperception of biophysical dynamics owing to a lack of adequate scientific data has contributed to the suboptimal management in marine capture fisheries. This is because yield and catch potentials are sensitive to the quality of catch and effort data. Yet, studies on fisheries data collection practices in developing countries are hard to find. This study investigates the data collection methods utilized by fisheries technical officers within the four fishing regions of Ghana. We found that the officers employed data collection and sampling procedures which were not consistent with the technical guidelines curated by FAO. For example, 50 instead of 166 landing sites were sampled, while 290 instead of 372 canoes were sampled. We argue that such sampling errors could result in the over-capitalization of capture fish stocks and significant losses in resource rents.

Keywords: Fisheries data quality, fisheries management, Ghana, Sustainable Fisheries

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Authors: A. Mohammadpour, Ebrahim Najafi Kajabad, Ghazale Ipakchi

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Presently, computer networks’ security rise in importance and many studies have also been conducted in this field. By the penetration of the internet networks in different fields, many things need to be done to provide a secure industrial and non-industrial network. Fire walls, appropriate Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS), encryption protocols for information sending and receiving, and use of authentication certificated are among things, which should be considered for system security. The aim of the present study is to use the outcome of several algorithms, which cause decline in IDS errors, in the way that improves system security and prevents additional overload to the system. Finally, regarding the obtained result we can also detect the amount and percentage of more sub attacks. By running the proposed system, which is based on the use of multi-algorithmic outcome and comparing that by the proposed single algorithmic methods, we observed a 78.64% result in attack detection that is improved by 3.14% than the proposed algorithms.

Keywords: intrusion detection systems, clustering, k-means, k-medoids, SV clustering, ensemble

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Authors: Vaibhav Singh Rajput, Ravi Kumar Jatoth, Nagu Bhookya, Bhasker Boda

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In this paper proportional, integral, derivative (PID) controller is used to control the pitch angle of the aircraft when the elevation angle is changed or modified. The pitch angle is dependent on elevation angle; a change in one corresponds to a change in the other. The PID controller helps in restricted change of pitch rate in response to the elevation angle. The PID controller is dependent on different parameters like Kp, Ki, Kd which change the pitch rate as they change. Various methodologies are used for changing those parameters for getting a perfect time response pitch angle, as desired or wished by a concerned person. While reckoning the values of those parameters, trial and guessing may prove to be futile in order to provide comfort to passengers. So, using some metaheuristic techniques can be useful in handling these errors. Hybrid GA-PSO is one such powerful algorithm which can improve transient and steady state response and can give us more reliable results for PID gain scheduling problem.

Keywords: pitch rate, elevation angle, PID controller, genetic algorithm, particle swarm optimization, phugoid

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Bandreddy Anand Babu, Mandadi Srinivasa Rao, Chintala Pradeep Reddy

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The main theme of this paper is to design fuzzy logic Proportional Integral Derivative controller for controlling of Pulse Width Modulator (PWM) based DCDC buck converter in continuous conduction mode of operation and comparing the results of FPID and ANFIS. Simulation is done to fuzzy the given input variables and membership functions of input values, creating the interference rules linking the input and output variables and after then defuzzfies the output variables. Fuzzy logic is simple for nonlinear models like buck converter. Fuzzy logic based PID controller technique is to control, nonlinear plants like buck converters in switching variables of power electronics. The characteristics of FPID are in terms of rise time, settling time, rise time, steady state errors for different inputs and load disturbances.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, PID controller, DC-DC buck converter, pulse width modulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 1013

Authors: Mohammad Ibrahim

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The study was conducted at Albasar international foundation ophthalmic hospitals in Sudan to study the burden and patterns of ophthalmic disorder in the sector. Review of the hospitals records revealed that the total number of patient examined in the hospitals and outreached camps conducted by the hospitals is 10,513,874, the total number of surgeries is 694,015 and the total number of pupils at school program is 230,382. The organization working with the highest management system and standards and quality result based planning. The study yielded that the ophthalmic problem in Sudan are of great percentage and the temporal blindness disorder are high since major cases and surgeries were Cataract (57.8%). Retinal problem (2.9%), Glaucoma (2.4%), Orbit and Occulo-plastic disorders (2.2%) other disorders are refractive errors, squint and strabismus, Corneal, Pediatrics and minor ophthalmic disorders.

Keywords: hospitals and outreach ophthalmic services, largest coverage of ophthalmic services, nonprofitable ophthalmic services, strong management system and standards

Procedia PDF Downloads 410

Authors: Sebastian Hiergeist

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It is a common view that Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) tend to migrate into the civil airspace. This trend is challenging UAV manufacturer in plenty ways, as there come up a lot of new requirements and functional aspects. On the higher application levels, this might be collision detection and avoidance and similar features, whereas all these functions only act as input for the flight control components of the aircraft. The flight control computer (FCC) is the central component when it comes up to ensure a continuous safe flight and landing. As these systems are flight critical, they have to be built up redundantly to be able to provide a Fail-Operational behavior. Recent architectural approaches of FCCs used in UAV systems are often based on very simple microprocessors in combination with proprietary Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) or Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) extensions implementing the whole redundancy functionality. In the future, such simple microprocessors may not be available anymore as they are more and more replaced by higher sophisticated System on Chip (SoC). As the avionic industry cannot provide enough market power to significantly influence the development of new semiconductor products, the use of solutions from foreign markets is almost inevitable. Products stemming from the industrial market developed according to IEC 61508, or automotive SoCs, according to ISO 26262, can be seen as candidates as they have been developed for similar environments. Current available SoC from the industrial or automotive sector provides quite a broad selection of interfaces like, i.e., Ethernet, SPI or FlexRay, that might come into account for the implementation of a redundancy network. In this context, possible network architectures shall be investigated which could be established by using the interfaces stated above. Of importance here is the avoidance of any single point of failures, as well as a proper segregation in distinct fault containment regions. The performed analysis is supported by the use of guidelines, published by the aviation authorities (FAA and EASA), on the reliability of data networks. The main focus clearly lies on the reachable level of safety, but also other aspects like performance and determinism play an important role and are considered in the research. Due to the further increase in design complexity of recent and future SoCs, also the risk of design errors, which might lead to common mode faults, increases. Thus in the context of this work also the aspect of dissimilarity will be considered to limit the effect of design errors. To achieve this, the work is limited to broadly available interfaces available in products from the most common silicon manufacturer. The resulting work shall support the design of future UAV FCCs by giving a guideline on building up a redundancy network between SoCs, solely using on board interfaces. Therefore the author will provide a detailed usability analysis on available interfaces provided by recent SoC solutions, suggestions on possible redundancy architectures based on these interfaces and an assessment of the most relevant characteristics of the suggested network architectures, like e.g. safety or performance.

Keywords: redundancy, System-on-Chip, UAV, flight control computer (FCC)

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Authors: Balasaheb Bansode, L. Ladusingh

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The public distribution system is an important component of food security. It is a massive welfare program undertaken by Government of India and implemented by state government since India being a federal state; for achieving multiple objectives like eliminating hunger, reduction in malnutrition and making food consumption affordable. This program reaches at the community level through the various agencies of the government. The paper focuses on the accessibility of PDS at household level and how the present policy framework results in exclusion and inclusion errors. It tries to explore the sanctioned food grain quantity received by differentiated ration cards according to income criterion at household level, and also it has highlighted on the type of corruption in food distribution that is generated by the PDS system. The data used is of secondary nature from NSSO 68 round conducted in 2012. Bivariate and multivariate techniques have been used to understand the working and consumption of food for this paper.

Keywords: calories intake, entitle food quantity, poverty aliviation through PDS, target error

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Authors: Yosra Baaziz, Moez Labidi

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Given limited research on monetary policy rules in revolutionary countries, this paper challenges the suitability of the Taylor rule in characterizing the monetary policy behavior of the Tunisian Central Bank (BCT), especially in turbulent times. More specifically, we investigate the possibility that the Taylor rule should be formulated as a threshold process and examine the validity of such nonlinear Taylor rule as a robust rule for conducting monetary policy in Tunisia. Using quarterly data from 1998:Q4 to 2013:Q4 to analyze the movement of nominal short-term interest rate of the BCT, we find that the nonlinear Taylor rule improves its performance with the advent of special events providing thus a better description of the Tunisian interest rate setting. In particular, our results show that the adoption of an appropriate nonlinear approach leads to a reduction in the errors of 150 basis points in 1999 and 2009, and 60 basis points in 2011, relative to the linear approach.

Keywords: policy rule, central bank, exchange rate, taylor rule, nonlinearity

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Authors: Zhuang Yiwen

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The paper examines the challenges facing the Singapore healthcare system related to the tracking and traceability of medical devices. One of the major challenges identified is the lack of a standard coding system for medical devices, which makes it difficult to track them effectively. The paper suggests the use of the Unique Device Identifier (UDI) as a single standard for medical devices to improve tracking and reduce errors. The paper also explores the use of barcoding and image recognition to identify and document medical devices in nursing practices. In nursing practices, the use of barcodes for identifying medical devices is common. However, the information contained in these barcodes is often inconsistent, making it challenging to identify which segment contains the model identifier. Moreover, the use of barcodes may be improved with the use of UDI, but many subsidized accessories may still lack barcodes. The paper suggests that the readiness for UDI and barcode standardization requires standardized information, fields, and logic in electronic medical record (EMR), operating theatre (OT), and billing systems, as well as barcode scanners that can read various formats and selectively parse barcode segments. Nursing workflow and data flow also need to be taken into account. The paper also explores the use of image recognition, specifically the Tesseract OCR engine, to identify and document implants in public hospitals due to limitations in barcode scanning. The study found that the solution requires an implant information database and checking output against the database. The solution also requires customization of the algorithm, cropping out objects affecting text recognition, and applying adjustments. The solution requires additional resources and costs for a mobile/hardware device, which may pose space constraints and require maintenance of sterile criteria. The integration with EMR is also necessary, and the solution require changes in the user's workflow. The paper suggests that the long-term use of Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms (SNOMED CT) as a supporting terminology to improve clinical documentation and data exchange in healthcare. SNOMED CT provides a standardized way of documenting and sharing clinical information with respect to procedure, patient and device documentation, which can facilitate interoperability and data exchange. In conclusion, the paper highlights the challenges facing the Singapore healthcare system related to the tracking and traceability of medical devices. The paper suggests the use of UDI and barcode standardization to improve tracking and reduce errors. It also explores the use of image recognition to identify and document medical devices in nursing practices. The paper emphasizes the importance of standardized information, fields, and logic in EMR, OT, and billing systems, as well as barcode scanners that can read various formats and selectively parse barcode segments. These recommendations could help the Singapore healthcare system to improve tracking and traceability of medical devices and ultimately enhance patient safety.

Keywords: medical device tracking, unique device identifier, barcoding and image recognition, systematized nomenclature of medicine clinical terms

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Authors: E. Grochowska-Niedworok, K. Brukalo, B. Całyniuk, J. Piekorz, M. Kardas

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The aim of the study was to assess diets of residents of nursing homes. Provided by social welfare home, 10 day menus were introduced into the computer program Diet 5 and analyzed in respect of protein, fats, carbohydrates, energy, vitamin D and calcium. The resulting mean values of 10-day menus were compared with the existing Nutrition Standards for Polish population. The analysis menus showed that the average amount of energy supplied from food is not sufficient. Carbohydrates in food supply are too high and represent 257% of normal. The average value of fats and proteins supplied with food is adequate 85.2 g/day and 75.2 g/day. The calcium content of the diet is 513.9 mg/day. The amount of vitamin D supplied in the age group 51-65 years is 2.3 µg/day. Dietary errors that have been shown are due to the lack of detailed nutritional guidelines for nursing homes, as well as state-owned care facilities in general.

Keywords: assessment of diet, essential nutrients, social welfare home, nutrition

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Authors: Bandreddy Anand Babu, Srinivasa Rao Mandadi, C. Pradeep Reddy, N. Ramesh Babu

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In this paper quickly illustrate the correlation investigation of Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving and Average (ARIMA) and daptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) models done by climate estimating. The climate determining is taken from University of Waterloo. The information is taken as Relative Humidity, Ambient Air Temperature, Barometric Pressure and Wind Direction utilized within this paper. The paper is carried out by analyzing the exhibitions are seen by demonstrating of ARIMA and ANIFIS model like with Sum of average of errors. Versatile Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) demonstrating is carried out by Mat lab programming and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving and Average (ARIMA) displaying is produced by utilizing XLSTAT programming. ANFIS is carried out in Fuzzy Logic Toolbox in Mat Lab programming.

Keywords: ARIMA, ANFIS, fuzzy surmising tool stash, weather forecasting, MATLAB

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Authors: Yuanjin Liu

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Retirement withdrawal strategies are very important to minimize the probability of ruin in retirement. The ruin probability is modeled as a function of initial withdrawal age, gender, asset allocation, inflation rate, and initial withdrawal rate. The ruin probability is obtained based on the 2019 period life table for the Social Security, IRS Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) Worksheets, US historical bond and equity returns, and inflation rates using simulation. Several popular machine learning algorithms of the generalized additive model, random forest, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting, and artificial neural network are built. The model validation and selection are based on the test errors using hyperparameter tuning and train-test split. The optimal model is recommended for retirees to monitor the ruin probability. The optimal withdrawal strategy can be obtained based on the optimal predictive model.

Keywords: ruin probability, retirement withdrawal strategies, predictive models, optimal model

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Authors: Sibawu Witness Siyepu

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This study explores the effects of instructional design using blended learning in the learning of radian measures among Engineering students. Blended learning is an education programme that combines online digital media with traditional classroom methods. It requires the physical presence of both lecturer and student in a mathematics computer laboratory. Blended learning provides element of class control over time, place, path or pace. The focus was on the use of Khan Academy to supplement traditional classroom interactions. Khan Academy is a non-profit educational organisation created by educator Salman Khan with a goal of creating an accessible place for students to learn through watching videos in a computer assisted computer. The researcher who is an also lecturer in mathematics support programme collected data through instructing students to watch Khan Academy videos on radian measures, and by supplying students with traditional classroom activities. Classroom activities entails radian measure activities extracted from the Internet. Students were given an opportunity to engage in class discussions, social interactions and collaborations. These activities necessitated students to write formative assessments tests. The purpose of formative assessments tests was to find out about the students’ understanding of radian measures, including errors and misconceptions they displayed in their calculations. Identification of errors and misconceptions serve as pointers of students’ weaknesses and strengths in their learning of radian measures. At the end of data collection, semi-structure interviews were administered to a purposefully sampled group to explore their perceptions and feedback regarding the use of blended learning approach in teaching and learning of radian measures. The study employed Algebraic Insight Framework to analyse data collected. Algebraic Insight Framework is a subset of symbol sense which allows a student to correctly enter expressions into a computer assisted systems efficiently. This study offers students opportunities to enter topics and subtopics on radian measures into a computer through the lens of Khan Academy. Khan academy demonstrates procedures followed to reach solutions of mathematical problems. The researcher performed the task of explaining mathematical concepts and facilitated the process of reinvention of rules and formulae in the learning of radian measures. Lastly, activities that reinforce students’ understanding of radian were distributed. Results showed that this study enthused the students in their learning of radian measures. Learning through videos prompted the students to ask questions which brought about clarity and sense making to the classroom discussions. Data revealed that sense making through reinvention of rules and formulae assisted the students in enhancing their learning of radian measures. This study recommends the use of Khan Academy in blended learning to be introduced as a socialisation programme to all first year students. This will prepare students that are computer illiterate to become conversant with the use of Khan Academy as a powerful tool in the learning of mathematics. Khan Academy is a key technological tool that is pivotal for the development of students’ autonomy in the learning of mathematics and that promotes collaboration with lecturers and peers.

Keywords: algebraic insight framework, blended learning, Khan Academy, radian measures

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Authors: Hsiang-Yu Yuan, Marc Baguelin, Kin O. Kwok, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Edwin Leeuwen, Steven Riley

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Traditional syndromic surveillance for influenza has substantial public health value in characterizing epidemics. Because the relationship between syndromic incidence and the true infection events can vary from one population to another and from one year to another, recent studies rely on combining serological test results with syndromic data from traditional surveillance into epidemic models to make inference on epidemiological processes of influenza. However, despite the widespread availability of serological data, epidemic models have thus far not explicitly represented antibody titre levels and their correspondence with immunity. Most studies use dichotomized data with a threshold (Typically, a titre of 1:40 was used) to define individuals as likely recently infected and likely immune and further estimate the cumulative incidence. Underestimation of Influenza attack rate could be resulted from the dichotomized data. In order to improve the use of serosurveillance data, here, a refinement of the concept of the stratified immunity within an epidemic model for influenza transmission was proposed, such that all individual antibody titre levels were enumerated explicitly and mapped onto a variable scale of susceptibility in different age groups. Haemagglutination inhibition titres from 523 individuals and 465 individuals during pre- and post-pandemic phase of the 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong were collected. The model was fitted to serological data in age-structured population using Bayesian framework and was able to reproduce key features of the epidemics. The effects of age-specific antibody boosting and protection were explored in greater detail. RB was defined to be the effective reproductive number in the presence of stratified immunity and its temporal dynamics was compared to the traditional epidemic model using use dichotomized seropositivity data. Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) was used to measure the fitness of the model to serological data with different mechanisms of the serological response. The results demonstrated that the differential antibody response with age was present (ΔDIC = -7.0). The age-specific mixing patterns with children specific transmissibility, rather than pre-existing immunity, was most likely to explain the high serological attack rates in children and low serological attack rates in elderly (ΔDIC = -38.5). Our results suggested that the disease dynamics and herd immunity of a population could be described more accurately for influenza when the distribution of immunity was explicitly represented, rather than relying only on the dichotomous states 'susceptible' and 'immune' defined by the threshold titre (1:40) (ΔDIC = -11.5). During the outbreak, RB declined slowly from 1.22[1.16-1.28] in the first four months after 1st May. RB dropped rapidly below to 1 during September and October, which was consistent to the observed epidemic peak time in the late September. One of the most important challenges for infectious disease control is to monitor disease transmissibility in real time with statistics such as the effective reproduction number. Once early estimates of antibody boosting and protection are obtained, disease dynamics can be reconstructed, which are valuable for infectious disease prevention and control.

Keywords: effective reproductive number, epidemic model, influenza epidemic dynamics, stratified immunity

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Authors: Farrukh Javed, Krzysztof Podgórski

Abstract:

We propose a new model that accounts for the asymmetric response of volatility to positive ('good news') and negative ('bad news') shocks in economic time series the so-called leverage effect. In the past, asymmetric powers of errors in the conditionally heteroskedastic models have been used to capture this effect. Our model is using the gamma difference representation of the generalized Laplace distributions that efficiently models the asymmetry. It has one additional natural parameter, the shape, that is used instead of power in the asymmetric power models to capture the strength of a long-lasting effect of shocks. Some fundamental properties of the model are provided including the formula for covariances and an explicit form for the conditional distribution of 'bad' and 'good' news processes given the past the property that is important for the statistical fitting of the model. Relevant features of volatility models are illustrated using S&P 500 historical data.

Keywords: heavy tails, volatility clustering, generalized asymmetric laplace distribution, leverage effect, conditional heteroskedasticity, asymmetric power volatility, GARCH models

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Authors: Aliyu Isah Agaie, Masrah Azrifah Azmi Murad, Nurfadhlina Mohd Sharef, Aida Mustapha

Abstract:

Natural Language Interfaces typically support a restricted language and also have scopes and limitations that naïve users are unaware of, resulting in errors when the users attempt to retrieve information from ontologies. To overcome this challenge, an auto-suggest feature is introduced into the querying process where users are guided through the querying process using interactive query construction system. Guiding users to formulate their queries, while providing them with an unconstrained (or almost unconstrained) way to query the ontology results in better interpretation of the query and ultimately lead to an effective search. The approach described in this paper is unobtrusive and subtly guides the users, so that they have a choice of either selecting from the suggestion list or typing in full. The user is not coerced into accepting system suggestions and can express himself using fragments or full sentences.

Keywords: auto-suggest, expressiveness, habitability, natural language interface, query interpretation, user guidance

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Authors: Mohamed Suleiman, Zarina Bibi Ibrahim, Nor Ain Azeany, Khairil Iskandar Othman

Abstract:

In this paper, a class of variable order fully implicit multistep Block Backward Differentiation Formulas (VOBBDF) using uniform step size for the numerical solution of stiff ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is developed. The code will combine three multistep block methods of order four, five and six. The order selection is based on approximation of the local errors with specific tolerance. These methods are constructed to produce two approximate solutions simultaneously at each iteration in order to further increase the efficiency. The proposed VOBBDF is validated through numerical results on some standard problems found in the literature and comparisons are made with single order Block Backward Differentiation Formula (BBDF). Numerical results shows the advantage of using VOBBDF for solving ODEs.

Keywords: block backward differentiation formulas, uniform step size, ordinary differential equations

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Authors: Rodrigo S. Fonseca, Antônio C. P. Veiga

Abstract:

Aiming at helping people with some movement limitation that makes typing and communication difficult, there is a need to customize an assistive tool with a learning environment that helps the user in order to optimize text input, identifying the error and providing the correction and possibilities of choice in the Portuguese language. The work presents an Orthographic and Grammatical System that can be incorporated into writing environments, improving and facilitating the use of an alphanumeric keyboard, using a prototype built using a genetic algorithm in addition to carrying out the prediction, which can occur based on the quantity and position of the inserted letters and even placement in the sentence, ensuring the sequence of ideas using a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network. The prototype optimizes data entry, being a component of assistive technology for the textual formulation, detecting errors, seeking solutions and informing the user of accurate predictions quickly and effectively through machine learning.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, neural networks, word prediction, machine learning

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Authors: Ryan Messina, Mehedi Hasan

Abstract:

This research is to examine the impacts of using data to generate performance requirements for automation in visual inspections using machine vision. These situations are intended for design and how projects can smooth the transfer of tacit knowledge to using an algorithm. We have proposed a framework when specifying machine vision systems. This framework utilizes varying levels of automation as contingency planning to reduce data processing complexity. Using data assists in extracting tacit knowledge from those who can perform the manual tasks to assist design the system; this means that real data from the system is always referenced and minimizes errors between participating parties. We propose using three indicators to know if the project has a high risk of failing to meet requirements related to accuracy and reliability. All systems tested achieved a better integration into operations after applying the framework.

Keywords: automation, contingency planning, continuous engineering, control theory, machine vision, system requirements, system thinking

Procedia PDF Downloads 204