Search results for: fire scenario

Authors: Heeyeul Kwon, Yongtae Park

Abstract:

Despite the highly touted benefits, emerging technologies have unleashed pervasive concerns regarding unintended and unforeseen social impacts. Thus, those wishing to create safe and socially acceptable products need to identify such side effects and mitigate them prior to the market proliferation. Various methodologies in the field of technology assessment (TA), namely Delphi, impact assessment, and scenario planning, have been widely incorporated in such a circumstance. However, literatures face a major limitation in terms of sole reliance on participatory workshop activities. They unfortunately missed out the availability of a massive untapped data source of futuristic information flooding through the Internet. This research thus seeks to gain insights into utilization of futuristic data, future-oriented documents from the Internet, as a supplementary method to generate social impact scenarios whilst capturing perspectives of experts from a wide variety of disciplines. To this end, network analysis is conducted based on the social keywords extracted from the futuristic documents by text mining, which is then used as a guide to produce a comprehensive set of detailed scenarios. Our proposed approach facilitates harmonized depictions of possible hazardous consequences of emerging technologies and thereby makes decision makers more aware of, and responsive to, broad qualitative uncertainties.

Keywords: emerging technologies, futuristic data, scenario, text mining

Procedia PDF Downloads 492

Authors: Shin Woo Kim, Eui Ju Lee

Abstract:

The recent development of biofuel production technology facilitates the use of bioethanol and biodiesel on automobile. Bioethanol, especially, can be used as a fuel for gasoline vehicles because the addition of ethanol has been known to increase octane number and reduce soot emissions. However, the wide application of biofuel has been still limited because of lack of detailed combustion properties such as auto-ignition temperature and pollutant emissions such as NOx and soot, which has been concerned mainly on the vehicle fire safety and environmental safety. In this study, the combustion characteristics of gasoline/ethanol fuel were investigated both numerically and experimentally. For auto-ignition temperature and NOx emission, the numerical simulation was performed on the well-stirred reactor (WSR) to simulate the homogeneous gasoline engine and to clarify the effect of ethanol addition in the gasoline fuel. Also, the response surface method (RSM) was introduced as a design of experiment (DOE), which enables the various combustion properties to be predicted and optimized systematically with respect to three independent variables, i.e., ethanol mole fraction, equivalence ratio and residence time. The results of stoichiometric gasoline surrogate show that the auto-ignition temperature increases but NOx yields decrease with increasing ethanol mole fraction. This implies that the bioethanol added gasoline is an eco-friendly fuel on engine running condition. However, unburned hydrocarbon is increased dramatically with increasing ethanol content, which results from the incomplete combustion and hence needs to adjust combustion itself rather than an after-treatment system. RSM results analyzed with three independent variables predict the auto-ignition temperature accurately. However, NOx emission had a big difference between the calculated values and the predicted values using conventional RSM because NOx emission varies very steeply and hence the obtained second order polynomial cannot follow the rates. To relax the increasing rate of dependent variable, NOx emission is taken as common logarithms and worked again with RSM. NOx emission predicted through logarithm transformation is in a fairly good agreement with the experimental results. For more tangible understanding of gasoline/ethanol fuel on pollutant emissions, experimental measurements of combustion products were performed in gasoline/ethanol pool fires, which is widely used as a fire source of laboratory scale experiments. Three measurement methods were introduced to clarify the pollutant emissions, i.e., various gas concentrations including NOx, gravimetric soot filter sampling for elements analysis and pyrolysis, thermophoretic soot sampling with transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Soot yield by gravimetric sampling was decreased dramatically as ethanol was added, but NOx emission was almost comparable regardless of ethanol mole fraction. The morphology of the soot particle was investigated to address the degree of soot maturing. The incipient soot such as a liquid like PAHs was observed clearly on the soot of higher ethanol containing gasoline, and the soot might be matured under the undiluted gasoline fuel.

Keywords: gasoline/ethanol fuel, NOx, pool fire, soot, well-stirred reactor (WSR)

Procedia PDF Downloads 212

Authors: Uwonkunda Jeanne, J. Godwin Prem Singh, Anjaneyalu Subbiah

Abstract:

HIV/AIDS is known to affect an individual not only physically but also mentally, socially, and financially. It is a syndrome that builds a vacuum in a person affecting his/her life as a whole.

Keywords: People living with HIV, social dysfunction, stigma, and Social support.

Procedia PDF Downloads 510

Authors: Jan Muhammad, Saad Malik, Fadia W. Al-Azawi, Ali Imran

Abstract:

In the era of climate variability, rising temperatures are the most significant aspect. In this study PRECIS model data and observed data are used for assessing the temperature change scenarios of Sindh province during the first half of present century. Observed data from various meteorological stations of Sindh are the primary source for temperature change detection. The current scenario (1961–1990) and the future one (2010-2050) are acted by the PRECIS Regional Climate Model at a spatial resolution of 25 * 25 km. Regional Climate Model (RCM) can yield reasonably suitable projections to be used for climate-scenario. The main objective of the study is to map the simulated temperature as obtained from climate model-PRECIS and their comparison with observed temperatures. The analysis is done on all the districts of Sindh in order to have a more precise picture of temperature change scenarios. According to results the temperature is likely to increases by 1.5 - 2.1°C by 2050, compared to the baseline temperature of 1961-1990. The model assesses more accurate values in northern districts of Sindh as compared to the coastal belt of Sindh. All the district of the Sindh province exhibit an increasing trend in the mean temperature scenarios and each decade seems to be warmer than the previous one. An understanding of the change in temperatures is very vital for various sectors such as weather forecasting, water, agriculture, and health, etc.

Keywords: PRECIS Model, real observed data, Arc GIS, interpolation techniques

Procedia PDF Downloads 250

Authors: Muhammad Yusuf Sulfarano Barusman

Abstract:

Research for the strategic formulation of competitive advantage development on Indonesian Private Higher Education Institutions (IPHEI) is mostly done using positivistic paradigm by means of analytical thinking. This study emphasized of the participatory paradigm by using synthesis as a way of thinking in order to achieve its goal. The purposes of this study are to: 1) build future scenario of the external environmental dynamics that will be encountered by IPHEI, 2) formulate a strategy that can be implemented by IPHEI through developing the organization's competitive advantage in the future. The used research methodology is Participatory Prospective Analysis (PPA). The results showed that the future scenario of external environmental conditions that will be encountered by IPHEI in the future can be described in three conditions, namely: optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic scenarios. The strategic formulation from the research results is based on four internal factors as its foundation (the effectiveness of leadership, the availability of funds and financing, the effectiveness of human resource management strategy, and the relevance of curriculum). A set of resulted strategic formulation is knowledge of the experts that needed to be followed up wisely so that their use can be optimized for the development of IPHE organizational competitive advantage in the future.

Keywords: competitive advantage, participatory prospective analysis, PPA, private higher education institutions, PHEI, strategic formulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 288

Authors: Brunno Vasques

Abstract:

Due to the non-toxic nature and high performance in terms of vacuum specific impulse and density specific impulse, the combination of liquid oxygen and liquid methane have been identified as a promising option for future space vehicle systems. Applications requiring throttling capability include specific missions such as rendezvous, planetary landing and de-orbit as well as weapon systems. One key challenge in throttling liquid rocket engines is maintaining an adequate pressure drop across the injection elements, which is necessary to provide good propellant atomization and mixing as well as system stability. The potential scalability of pintle injectors, their great suitability to throttling and inherent combustion stability characteristics led to investigations using a variety of propellant combinations, including liquid oxygen and hydrogen and fluorine-oxygen and methane. Presented here are the preliminary performance and heat transfer information obtained during hot-fire testing of a pintle injector running on liquid oxygen and liquid methane propellants. The specific injector design selected for this purpose is a multi-configuration building block version with replaceable injection elements, providing flexibility to accommodate hardware modifications with minimum difficulty. On the basis of single point runs and the use of a copper/nickel segmented calorimetric combustion chamber and associated transient temperature measurement, the characteristic velocity efficiency, injector footprint and heat fluxes could be established for the first proposed pintle configuration as a function of injection velocity- and momentum-ratios. A description of the test-bench is presented as well as a discussion of irregularities encountered during testing, such as excessive heat flux into the pintle tip resulting from certain operating conditions.

Keywords: green propellants, hot-fire performance, rocket engine throttling, pintle injector

Procedia PDF Downloads 340

Authors: Huan Li, Jianchun Li, Yancheng Li, Yang Yu

Abstract:

As a seismic protection method of civil and engineering structures, weakening and damping is effective during the elastic region, while it somehow leads to the early yielding of the entire structure accompanying with large excursions and permanent deformations. Adaptive negative stiffness device is attractive for realizing yielding property without changing the stiffness of the primary structure. In this paper, a new modification negative stiffness device (MNSD) with constant force-displacement characteristic is proposed by combining a magnetic negative stiffness spring, a piecewise linear positive spring and a passive damper with a certain adaptive stiffness device. The proposed passive control MNSD preserves no effect under small excitation. When the displacement amplitude increases beyond the pre-defined yielding point, the force-displacement characteristics of the system with MNSD will keep constant. The seismic protection effect of the MNSD is evaluated by employing it to a single-degree-of-freedom system under sinusoidal excitation, and real earthquake waves. By comparative analysis, the system with MNSD performs better on reducing acceleration and displacement response under different displacement amplitudes than the scenario without it and the scenario with unmodified certain adaptive stiffness device.

Keywords: negative stiffness, adaptive stiffness, weakening and yielding, constant force-displacement characteristic

Procedia PDF Downloads 160

Authors: Ivana R. Moser, Joao C. Souza

Abstract:

Building fires are random phenomena that can be extremely violent, and safe evacuation of people is the most guaranteed tactic in saving lives. The correct evacuation of buildings, and other spaces occupied by people, means leaving the place in a short time and by the appropriate way. It depends on the perception of spaces by the individual, the architectural layout and the presence of appropriate routing systems. As historical buildings were constructed in other times, when, as in general, the current security requirements were not available yet, it is necessary to adapt these spaces to make them safe. Computer models of evacuation simulation are widely used tools for assessing the safety of people in a building or agglomeration sites and these are associated with the analysis of human behaviour, makes the results of emergency evacuation more correct and conclusive. The objective of this research is the performance evaluation of historical interest buildings, regarding the safe evacuation of people, through computer simulation, using PTV Viswalk software. The buildings objects of study are the Colégio Catarinense, centennial building, located in the city of Florianópolis, Santa Catarina / Brazil. The software used uses the variables of human behaviour, such as: avoid collision with other pedestrians and avoid obstacles. Scenarios were run on the three-dimensional models and the contribution to safety in risk situations was verified as an alternative measure, especially in the impossibility of applying those measures foreseen by the current fire safety codes in Brazil. The simulations verified the evacuation time in situations of normality and emergency situations, as well as indicate the bottlenecks and critical points of the studied buildings, to seek solutions to prevent and correct these undesirable events. It is understood that adopting an advanced computational performance-based approach promotes greater knowledge of the building and how people behave in these specific environments, in emergency situations.

Keywords: computer simulation, escape routes, fire safety, historic buildings, human behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Islam Abou El-Magd, Elham Ali, Ali Amasha

Abstract:

Earthquakes strike without warning and cause widespread damage to social and economic infrastructures and creating life losses. These can neither be predicted nor prevented in terms of their magnitude, place, and time of occurrence. It is a global phenomenon that creates nearly 18% of life losses and nearly 35% of economic damage. The coastal zone of Egypt is considered low to medium risk, however, there is a record of high magnitude earthquakes that created Tsunami in the past. The northern coastal zone of Egypt is under the force of tension shear zones of African and European plates that have considerable earthquakes with variable degrees. This research studied the earthquakes in the last 65 years in the Mediterranean Basin in relation to the geotectonic shear zones. 85% of these earthquakes are in the marine that might create Tsunami. Aegean and Anatolia shear zones are the highest contributors of the earthquakes with nearly 37% and 36% respectively. However the least one is the Arabia zone with 1%, and Africa is about 26%. The research proposed three scenarios for the socioeconomic hazards, earthquakes with Tsunami that will destroy one fifth of the economic infrastructures with unpredictable life losses. The estimated cost of recovery of such losses is nearly 400B USD. The second scenario is earthquake without Tsunami that will impact the major urban and infrastructures. The last scenario is tidal gauges events that threaten the low-lying areas particularly the eastern side which has major land subsidence.

Keywords: natural hazards, earthquakes, tusnami, Nile delta, Egypt

Procedia PDF Downloads 164

Authors: Lara Dutil-Fafard, Caroline Rhéaume, Patrick Archambault, Daniel Lafond, Neal W. Pollock

Abstract:

Improving resources for medical autonomy of astronauts in prolonged space missions, such as a Mars mission, requires not only technology development, but also decision-making support systems. The Advanced Crew Medical System - Medical Condition Requirements study, funded by the Canadian Space Agency, aimed to create knowledge content and a scenario-based query capability to support medical autonomy of astronauts. The key objective of this study was to create a prototype tool for identifying medical infrastructure requirements in terms of medical knowledge, skills and materials. A multicriteria decision-making method was used to prioritize the highest risk medical events anticipated in a long-term space mission. Starting with those medical conditions, event sequence diagrams (ESDs) were created in the form of decision trees where the entry point is the diagnosis and the end points are the predicted outcomes (full recovery, partial recovery, or death/severe incapacitation). The ESD formalism was adapted to characterize and compare possible outcomes of medical conditions as a function of available medical knowledge, skills, and supplies in a given mission scenario. An extensive literature review was performed and summarized in a medical condition database. A PostgreSQL relational database was created to allow query-based evaluation of health outcome metrics with different medical infrastructure scenarios. Critical decision points, skill and medical supply requirements, and probable health outcomes were compared across chosen scenarios. The three medical conditions with the highest risk rank were acute coronary syndrome, sepsis, and stroke. Our efforts demonstrate the utility of this approach and provide insight into the effort required to develop appropriate content for the range of medical conditions that may arise.

Keywords: decision support system, event-sequence diagram, exploration mission, medical autonomy, scenario-based queries, space medicine

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: David Carvalho

Abstract:

Future changes in the mean, maximum and minimum temperature in continental Portugal were investigated using high-resolution future climate projections based on the latest IPCC AR6 CMIP6 climate scenarios. The results show that the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to increase substantially in all of continental Portugal, particularly in the south-central inland regions. For the near-term future (2046-2065 period), SSP3-7.0 is the future climate scenario that projects higher increases of around 1 ºC, 1.5 ºC and 2 ºC for the daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. For the long-term future (2081-2100 period), the projected warming is higher, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 future climate scenario with projected warmings of 3 ºC, 3.5 ºC and 2.5 ºC for the daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. Occurrences of hot days (mean temperature above 30 ºC), very hot days (maximum temperature above 40 ºC) and tropical nights (minimum temperature above 20 ºC) are all projected to increase up to 35-40, 12-15 and 50 more days per year, respectively, mainly in the interior areas of Portugal. Oppositely, the occurrence of frost days is projected to decrease in practically all mountainous areas in Portugal. These results show a clear tendency of a significant increase in the surface temperatures and frequency of occurrence of extreme temperature episodes in continental Portugal, which can have severe impacts on the population, environment, economy and vital human activities such as agriculture.

Keywords: climate change, global warming, CMIP6, Portugal

Procedia PDF Downloads 38

Authors: Claudia Cocozza, Niccolò Frassinelli, Enrico Marchi, Cristiano Foderi, Alessandro Bizzarri, Margherita Paladini, Maria Laura Traversi, Eleftherious Touloupakis, Alessio Giovannelli

Abstract:

The development of tools to quickly identify the fate of injured trees after stress is highly relevant when biodiversity restoration of damaged sites is based on nature-based solutions. In this context, an approach to assess irreversible physiological damages within trees could help to support planning management decisions of perturbed sites to restore biodiversity, for the safety of the environment and understanding functionality adjustments of the ecosystems. Tree vitality can be estimated by a series of physiological proxies like cambium activity, starch, and soluble sugars amount in C-sinks whilst the accumulation of ethanol within the cambial cells and phloem is considered an alert of cell death. However, their determination requires time-consuming laboratory protocols, which makes the approach unfeasible as a practical option in the field. The project aims to develop biosensors to assess the concentration of soluble sugars and ethanol in stem tissues. Soluble sugars and ethanol concentrations will be used to define injured trees to discriminate compromised and recovering trees in the forest directly. To reach this goal, we select study sites subjected to prescribed fires or recent wildfires as experimental set-ups. Indeed, in Mediterranean countries, forest fire is a recurrent event that must be considered as a central component of regional and global strategies in forest management and biodiversity restoration programs. A biosensor will be developed through a multistep process related to target analytes characterization, bioreceptor selection, and, finally, calibration/testing of the sensor. To validate biosensor signals, soluble sugars and ethanol will be quantified by HPLC and GC using synthetic media (in lab) and phloem sap (in field) whilst cambium vitality will be assessed by anatomical observations. On burnt trees, the stem growth will be monitored by dendrometers and/or estimated by tree ring analyses, whilst the tree response to past fire events will be assessed by isotopic discrimination. Moreover, the fire characterization and the visual assessment procedure will be used to assign burnt trees to a vitality class. At the end of the project, a well-defined procedure combining biosensor signal and visual assessment will be produced and applied to a study case. The project outcomes and the results obtained will be properly packaged to reach, engage and address the needs of the final users and widely shared with relevant stakeholders involved in the optimal use of biosensors and in the management of post-fire areas. This project was funded by National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), Mission 4, Component C2, Investment 1.1 - Call for tender No. 1409 of 14 September 2022 – ‘Progetti di Ricerca di Rilevante interesse Nazionale – PRIN’ of Italian Ministry of University and Research funded by the European Union – NextGenerationEU; Grant N° P2022Z5742, CUP B53D23023780001.

Keywords: phloem, scorched crown, conifers, prescribed burning, biosensors

Procedia PDF Downloads 18

Authors: Agoston Restas

Abstract:

Introduction: This paper describes many initiatives and shows also practical examples which happened recently using Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) to support disaster management. Since the operation of manned aircraft at disasters is usually not only expensive but often impossible to use as well, in many cases managers fail to use the aerial activity. UAS can be an alternative moreover cost-effective solution for supporting disaster management. Methods: This article uses thematic division of UAS applications; it is based on two key elements, one of them is the time flow of managing disasters, other is its tactical requirements. Logically UAS can be used like pre-disaster activity, activity immediately after the occurrence of a disaster and the activity after the primary disaster elimination. Paper faces different disasters, like dangerous material releases, floods, earthquakes, forest fires and human-induced disasters. Research used function analysis, practical experiments, mathematical formulas, economic analysis and also expert estimation. Author gathered international examples and used own experiences in this field as well. Results and discussion: An earthquake is a rapid escalating disaster, where, many times, there is no other way for a rapid damage assessment than aerial reconnaissance. For special rescue teams, the UAS application can help much in a rapid location selection, where enough place remained to survive for victims. Floods are typical for a slow onset disaster. In contrast, managing floods is a very complex and difficult task. It requires continuous monitoring of dykes, flooded and threatened areas. UAS can help managers largely keeping an area under observation. Forest fires are disasters, where the tactical application of UAS is already well developed. It can be used for fire detection, intervention monitoring and also for post-fire monitoring. In case of nuclear accident or hazardous material leakage, UAS is also a very effective or can be the only one tool for supporting disaster management. Paper shows some efforts using UAS to avoid human-induced disasters in low-income countries as part of health cooperation.

Keywords: disaster management, floods, forest fires, Unmanned Aerial Systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 239

Authors: Virginie Hergault, Siham Chebbah, Bertrand Frere

Abstract:

Following in-house objectives, Central laboratory of Paris police Prefecture conducted a general review on models and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes used to simulate pollutant dispersion in the atmosphere. Starting from that review and considering main features of Large Eddy Simulation, Central Laboratory Of Paris Police Prefecture (LCPP) postulates that the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) model, from National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), should be well suited for air pollutant dispersion modeling. This paper focuses on the implementation and the evaluation of FDS in the frame of the European COST ES1006 Action. This action aimed at quantifying the performance of modeling approaches. In this paper, the CUTE dataset carried out in the city of Hamburg, and its mock-up has been used. We have performed a comparison of FDS results with wind tunnel measurements from CUTE trials on the one hand, and, on the other, with the models results involved in the COST Action. The most time-consuming part of creating input data for simulations is the transfer of obstacle geometry information to the format required by SDS. Thus, we have developed Python codes to convert automatically building and topographic data to the FDS input file. In order to evaluate the predictions of FDS with observations, statistical performance measures have been used. These metrics include the fractional bias (FB), the normalized mean square error (NMSE) and the fraction of predictions within a factor of two of observations (FAC2). As well as the CFD models tested in the COST Action, FDS results demonstrate a good agreement with measured concentrations. Furthermore, the metrics assessment indicate that FB and NMSE meet the tolerance acceptable.

Keywords: numerical simulations, atmospheric dispersion, cost ES1006 action, CFD model, cute experiments, wind tunnel data, numerical results

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Jenny Ringblom, Marie Proczkowska, Laura Korhonen, Ingrid Wåhlin

Abstract:

Background: Emergence delirium is a well-known behaviour of perceptual disturbances that may occur after general anaesthesia in children. Children with emergence delirium are often confused; they cry, are involuntarily physically active and are almost impossible to console. The prevalence varies considerably between about 13% and 53%. Research has mainly focused on how different medication accents affect the incidence of emergence delirium, but less is known about parents’ experiences of emergence delirium during the recovery process. Aim: The aim of this study was to describe parents’ experiences and reflections during their child's emergence delirium behaviour when recovering from anaesthesia. Method: The study has a qualitative design, and the data has been analyzed using thematic analysis. A total of 16 parents were interviewed at two county hospitals in Sweden. Results: When the parents reunited with their child at the recovering unit, they felt as if they were encountering an incomprehensible scenario. When watching their child demonstrating emergence delirium, they experienced fear and insecurity and had feelings of powerlessness and guilt. Information and previous experience turned out to offer relief and being seen by the healthcare staff when they, in their vulnerability, failed to reach or console their child gave hope and energy. Conclusion: Emergence delirium must be extensively considered in children undergoing general anaesthesia. Healthcare staff needs to be aware of the parental difficulties it may cause. There is also important to know what parents experience as relieving, such as receiving information and when staff members are being available, responsive and supportive during the wake-up period.

Keywords: emergence delirium, experiences, pediatrics, parents, postoperative care

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: María José Carrero, Ana M. Borreguero, Juan F. Rodríguez, María M. Velencoso, Ángel Serrano, María Jesús Ramos

Abstract:

Flame-retardants are incorporated in different materials in order to reduce the risk of fire, either by providing increased resistance to ignition, or by acting to slow down combustion and thereby delay the spread of flames. In this work, polyether polyols with fire retardant properties were synthesized due to their wide application in the polyurethanes formulation. The combustion of polyurethanes is primarily dependent on the thermal properties of the polymer, the presence of impurities and formulation residue in the polymer as well as the supply of oxygen. There are many types of flame retardants, most of them are phosphorous compounds of different nature and functionality. The addition of these compounds is the most common method for the incorporation of flame retardant properties. The employment of glycerol phosphate sodium salt as initiator for the polyol synthesis allows obtaining polyols with phosphate groups in their structure. However, some of the critical points of the use of glycerol phosphate salt are: the lower reactivity of the salt and the necessity of a solvent (dimethyl sulfoxide, DMSO). Thus, the main aim in the present work was to determine the amount of the solvent needed to get a good solubility of the initiator salt. Although the anionic polymerization mechanism of polyether formation is well known, it seems convenient to clarify the role that DMSO plays at the starting point of the polymerization process. Regarding the fact that the catalyst deprotonizes the hydroxyl groups of the initiator and as a result of this, two water molecules and glycerol phosphate alkoxide are formed. This alkoxide, together with DMSO, has to form a homogeneous mixture where the initiator (solid) and the propylene oxide (PO) are soluble enough to mutually interact. The addition rate of PO increased when the solvent/initiator ratios studied were increased, observing that it also made the initiation step shorter. Furthermore, the molecular weight of the polyol decreased when higher solvent/initiator ratios were used, what revealed that more amount of salt was activated, initiating more chains of lower length but allowing to react more phosphate molecules and to increase the percentage of phosphorous in the final polyol. However, the final phosphorous content was lower than the theoretical one because only a percentage of salt was activated. On the other hand, glycerol phosphate disodium salt was still partially insoluble in DMSO studied proportions, thus, the recovery and reuse of this part of the salt for the synthesis of new flame retardant polyols was evaluated. In the recovered salt case, the rate of addition of PO remained the same than in the commercial salt but a shorter induction period was observed, this is because the recovered salt presents a higher amount of deprotonated hydroxyl groups. Besides, according to molecular weight, polydispersity index, FT-IR spectrum and thermal stability, there were no differences between both synthesized polyols. Thus, it is possible to use the recovered glycerol phosphate disodium salt in the same way that the commercial one.

Keywords: DMSO, fire retardants, glycerol phosphate disodium salt, recovered initiator, solvent

Procedia PDF Downloads 279

Authors: Roseliza Mat Alipiah, David Raffaelli, J. C. R. Smart

Abstract:

This research is a new approach as it integrates information from both environmental and social sciences to inform effective management of the wetlands. A three-stage research framework was developed for modelling the drivers and pressures imposed on the wetlands and their impacts to the ecosystem and the local communities. Firstly, a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) was used to predict the probability of anthropogenic activities affecting the delivery of different key wetland ecosystem services under different management scenarios. Secondly, Choice Experiments (CEs) were used to quantify the relative preferences which key wetland stakeholder group (aquaculturists) held for delivery of different levels of these key ecosystem services. Thirdly, a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was applied to produce an ordinal ranking of the alternative management scenarios accounting for their impacts upon ecosystem service delivery as perceived through the preferences of the aquaculturists. This integrated ecosystem management approach was applied to a wetland ecosystem in Setiu, Terengganu, Malaysia which currently supports a significant level of aquaculture activities. This research has produced clear guidelines to inform policy makers considering alternative wetland management scenarios: Intensive Aquaculture, Conservation or Ecotourism, in addition to the Status Quo. The findings of this research are as follows: The BBN revealed that current aquaculture activity is likely to have significant impacts on water column nutrient enrichment, but trivial impacts on caged fish biomass, especially under the Intensive Aquaculture scenario. Secondly, the best fitting CE models identified several stakeholder sub-groups for aquaculturists, each with distinct sets of preferences for the delivery of key ecosystem services. Thirdly, the MCDA identified Conservation as the most desirable scenario overall based on ordinal ranking in the eyes of most of the stakeholder sub-groups. Ecotourism and Status Quo scenarios were the next most preferred and Intensive Aquaculture was the least desirable scenario. The methodologies developed through this research provide an opportunity for improving planning and decision making processes that aim to deliver sustainable management of wetland ecosystems in Malaysia.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network (BBN), choice experiments (CE), multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), aquaculture

Procedia PDF Downloads 295

Authors: Pallavi Gajjar, Vinayak Malhotra

Abstract:

Rockets have been known to have played a predominant role in spacecraft propulsion. The quintessential aspect of combustion-related requirements of a rocket engine is the minimization of the surrounding risks/hazards. Over time, it has become imperative to understand the combustion rate variation in presence of external energy source(s). Rocket propulsion represents a special domain of chemical propulsion assisted by high speed flows in presence of acoustics and thermal source(s). Jet noise leads to a significant loss of resources and every year a huge amount of financial aid is spent to prevent it. External heat source(s) induce high possibility of fire risk/hazards which can sufficiently endanger the operation of a space vehicle. Appreciable work had been done with justifiable simplification and emphasis on the linear variation of external energy source(s), which yields good physical insight but does not cater to accurate predictions. Present work experimentally attempts to understand the correlation between inter-energy conversions with the non-linear placement of external energy source(s). The work is motivated by the need to have better fire safety and enhanced combustion. The specific objectives of the work are a) To interpret the related energy transfer for combustion in presence of alternate external energy source(s) viz., thermal and acoustic, b) To fundamentally understand the role of key controlling parameters viz., separation distance, the number of the source(s), selected configurations and their non-linear variation to resemble real-life cases. An experimental setup was prepared using incense sticks as potential fuel and paraffin wax candles as the external energy source(s). The acoustics was generated using frequency generator, and source(s) were placed at selected locations. Non-equidistant parametric experimentation was carried out, and the effects were noted on regression rate changes. The results are expected to be very helpful in offering a new perspective into futuristic rocket designs and safety.

Keywords: combustion, acoustic energy, external energy sources, regression rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: He Zhang, Jianxin Yi

Abstract:

As a clean energy, hydrogen shows many advantages such as renewability, high heat value, and extensive sources and may play an important role in the future society. However, hydrogen is a combustible gas because of its low ignition energy (0.02mJ) and wide explosive limit (4% ~ 74% in air). It is very likely to cause fire hazard or explosion once leakage is happened and not detected in time. Mixed-potential type sensor has attracted much attention in monitoring and detecting hydrogen due to its high response, simple support electronics and long-term stability. Typically, this kind of sensor is consisted of a sensing electrode (SE), a reference electrode (RE) and a solid electrolyte. The SE and RE materials usually display different electrocatalytic abilities to hydrogen. So hydrogen could be detected by measuring the EMF change between the two electrodes. Previous reports indicate that a high-performance sensing electrode is important for improving the sensing characteristics of the sensor. In this report, a planar type mixed-potential hydrogen sensor using La₀.₈Sr₀.₂Cr₀.₅Mn₀.₅O₃₋δ (LSCM) as SE, Pt as RE and yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ) as solid electrolyte was developed. The reason for selecting LSCM as sensing electrode is that it shows the high electrocatalytic ability to hydrogen in solid oxide fuel cells. The sensing performance of the fabricated LSCM/YSZ/Pt sensor was tested systemically. The experimental results show that the sensor displays high response to hydrogen. The response values for 100ppm and 1000ppm hydrogen at 450 ºC are -70 mV and -118 mV, respectively. The response time is an important parameter to evaluate a sensor. In this report, the sensor response time decreases with increasing hydrogen concentration and get saturated above 500ppm. The steady response time at 450 ºC is as short as 4s, indicating the sensor shows great potential in practical application to monitor hydrogen. An excellent response repeatability to 100ppm hydrogen at 450 ˚C and a good sensor reproducibility among three sensors were also observed. Meanwhile, the sensor exhibits excellent selectivity to hydrogen compared with several interfering gases such as NO₂, CH₄, CO, C₃H₈ and NH₃. Polarization curves were tested to investigate the sensing mechanism and the results indicated the sensor abide by the mixed-potential mechanism.

Keywords: fire hazard, H₂ sensor, mixed-potential, perovskite

Procedia PDF Downloads 186

Authors: Anant Deogaonkar, Archana Nanoty

Abstract:

The term civil service plays a vital role in functioning of any government. In today’s modern era of globalization civil services essentially contribute for the success of the good governance system. The civil service in India refers to the body of government officials employed in civil occupations that are neither political nor judicial. The Indian Civil Services were created to foster the idea of unity in diversity with the expectation of giving continuity and change in administration independent of the political scenario and turmoil affecting the country. The civil service is an integral part of administration and the structures of administration to determine the way civil service functions. The concept of good governance necessarily precludes the effective human resource management ensuring the root level reach of the good governance. The serious matter of concern is the element of change. The civil service in general has maintained status quo instead of sweeping changes in social and economic scenario. One may disagree for this but it is a fact on the street that the Indian civil service was not able to deliver up to the expectations of the people and was lacking on the service front. The effective management of human resources at civil service needs to be prioritized and will form a key factor in successful delivery of the desired results may be in minimum duration. This paper focuses on the various ways of effective management of human resources in civil services. It also highlights the importance of improvement in human resource management in civil services with the detailed discussion of positives and negatives if any of the human resource management in civil services.

Keywords: civil services, human resources management, India, governance

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Shyam Sunder Gupta

Abstract:

The current theory for the creation of the universe, the Big Bang theory, is widely accepted but leaves some unanswered questions. It does not explain the origin of the singularity or what causes the Big Bang. The theory of the Big Bang also does not explain why there is such a huge amount of dark energy and dark matter in our universe. Also, there is a question related to one universe or multiple universes which needs to be answered. This research addresses these questions using the Bhagvat Puran and other Vedic scriptures as the basis. There is a Unique Pure Energy Field that is eternal, infinite, and finest of all and never transforms when in its original form. The Carrier Particles of Unique Pure Energy are Param-anus- Fundamental Energy Particles. Param-anus and a combination of these particles create bigger particles from which the Universe gets created. For creation to initiate, Unique Pure Energy is represented in three phases: positive phase energy, neutral phase eternal time energy and negative phase energy. Positive phase energy further expands in three forms of creative energies (CE1, CE2andCE3). From CE1 energy, three energy modes, mode of activation, mode of action, and mode of darkness, were created. From these three modes, 16 Principles, subtlest forms of energies, namely Pradhan, Mahat-tattva, Time, Ego, Intellect, Mind, Sound, Space, Touch, Air, Form, Fire, Taste, Water, Smell, and Earth, get created. In the Mahat-tattva, dominant in the Mode of Darkness, CE1 energy creates innumerable primary singularities from seven principles: Pradhan, Mahat-tattva, Ego, Sky, Air, Fire, and Water. CE1 energy gets divided as CE2 and enters, along with three modes and time, in each singularity, and primary Big Bang takes place, and innumerable Invisible Universes get created. Each Universe has seven coverings of 7 principles, and each layer is 10 times thicker than the previous layer. By energy CE2, space in Invisible Universe under the coverings is divided into two halves. In the lower half, the process of evolution gets initiated, and seeds of 24 elements get created, out of which 5 fundamental elements, building blocks of matter, Sky, Air, Fire, Water and Earth, create seeds of stars, planets, galaxies and all other matter. Since 5 fundamental elements get created out of the mode of darkness, it explains why there is so much dark energy and dark matter in our Universe. This process of creation, in the lower half of Invisible universe continues for 2.16 billion years. Further, in the lower part of the energy field, exactly at the Centre of Invisible Universe, Secondary Singularity is created, through which, by force of Mode of Action, Secondary Big Bang takes place and Visible Universe gets created in the shape of Lotus Flower, expanding into upper part. Visible matter starts appearing after a gap of 360,000 years. Within the Visible Universe, a small part gets created known as the Phenomenal Material World, which is our Solar System, the sun being in the Centre. Diameter of Solar planetary system is 6.4 billion km.

Keywords: invisible universe, phenomenal material world, primary Big Bang, secondary Big Bang, singularities, visible universe

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Kyung Suk Cho, Heung Youl Kim

Abstract:

The analysis of the petrologic characteristics and thermal properties of crushed aggregates for concrete such as granite, gneiss, dolomite, shale and andesite found that rock-forming minerals decided the thermal properties of the aggregates. The thermal expansion coefficients of aggregates containing lots of quartz increased rapidly at 573 degrees due to quartz transition. The mass of aggregate containing carbonate minerals decreased rapidly at 750 degrees due to decarboxylation, while its specific heat capacity increased relatively. The mass of aggregates containing hydrated silicate minerals decreased more significantly, and their specific heat capacities were greater when compared with aggregates containing feldspar or quartz. It is deduced that the hydroxyl group (OH) in hydrated silicate dissolved as its bond became loose at high temperatures. Aggregates containing mafic minerals turned red at high temperatures due to oxidation response. Moreover, the comparison of cooling methods showed that rapid cooling using water resulted in more reduction in aggregate mass than slow cooling at room temperatures. In order to observe the fire resistance performance of concrete composed of the identical but coarse aggregate, mass loss and compressive strength reduction factor at 200, 400, 600 and 800 degrees were measured. It was found from the analysis of granite and gneiss that the difference in thermal expansion coefficients between cement paste and aggregates caused by quartz transit at 573 degrees resulted in thermal stress inside the concrete and thus triggered concrete cracking. The ferromagnesian hydrated silicate in andesite and shale caused greater reduction in both initial stiffness and mass compared with other aggregates. However, the thermal expansion coefficient of andesite and shale was similar to that of cement paste. Since they were low in thermal conductivity and high in specific heat capacity, concrete cracking was relatively less severe. Being slow in heat transfer, they were judged to be materials of high heat capacity.

Keywords: crush-aggregates, fire resistance, thermal expansion, heat transfer

Procedia PDF Downloads 228

Authors: Alvarez Magañini, María Victoria-Rubbi, Lautaro Nahuel

Abstract:

At present, we are facing an unstable international context, conditioned by a relative decline of the US power, primarily in the economic sphere and, to a lesser extent, in the military sphere. This scenario of multipolarity creates tension and uncertainty in the peripheral countries when the issue of their foreign policy arises. This paper presents an analysis of the bilateral relations that were maintained by the Argentine Republic, a peripheral country, along with the United States and China during the period of 2005-2015 in matters of defense in order to identify the empirical consequences resulted from the Argentine actions. Based on the conceptual framework of Peripheral Realism, we analyze indicators related to the weapon trade, defense loans, joint exercises, and personnel training, among others. There will also be a comparative analysis of the conventional military forces of the two powers in question, United States and China. As a conclusion, the cost of having closer relations with China instead of the United States in the defense agenda has been clearly higher than the benefits obtained. The conclusions drawn are empirically aligned with the theoretical paradigm of peripheral realism. Although there are certain conceptual and methodological digressions, these conclusions they could be useful to update and adapt the theory to the current complex international scenario.

Keywords: China, United States, Argentine, peripheral country, peripheral realism

Procedia PDF Downloads 381

Authors: Abdullah Al Mamoon, Niels E. Joergensen, Ataur Rahman, Hassan Qasem

Abstract:

Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) in its fourth Assessment Report AR4 predicts a more extreme climate towards the end of the century, which is likely to impact the design of engineering infrastructure projects with a long design life. A recent study in 2013 developed new design rainfall for Qatar, which provides an improved design basis of drainage infrastructure for the State of Qatar under the current climate. The current design standards in Qatar do not consider increased rainfall intensity caused by climate change. The focus of this paper is to update recently developed design rainfalls in Qatar under the changing climatic conditions based on IPCC's AR4 allowing a later revision to the proposed design standards, relevant for projects with a longer design life. The future climate has been investigated based on the climate models released by IPCC’s AR4 and A2 story line of emission scenarios (SRES) using a stationary approach. Annual maximum series (AMS) of predicted 24 hours rainfall data for both wet (NCAR-CCSM) scenario and dry (CSIRO-MK3.5) scenario for the Qatari grid points in the climate models have been extracted for three periods, current climate 2010-2039, medium term climate (2040-2069) and end of century climate (2070-2099). A homogeneous region of the Qatari grid points has been formed and L-Moments based regional frequency approach is adopted to derive design rainfalls. The results indicate no significant changes in the design rainfall on the short term 2040-2069, but significant changes are expected towards the end of the century (2070-2099). New design rainfalls have been developed taking into account climate change for 2070-2099 scenario and by averaging results from the two scenarios. IPCC’s AR4 predicts that the rainfall intensity for a 5-year return period rain with duration of 1 to 2 hours will increase by 11% in 2070-2099 compared to current climate. Similarly, the rainfall intensity for more extreme rainfall, with a return period of 100 years and duration of 1 to 2 hours will increase by 71% in 2070-2099 compared to current climate. Infrastructure with a design life exceeding 60 years should add safety factors taking the predicted effects from climate change into due consideration.

Keywords: climate change, design rainfalls, IDF, Qatar

Procedia PDF Downloads 394

Authors: Thummalapalli CSM Gupta, Banti Sidhiwala

Abstract:

Mineral oils of naphthenic and paraffinic type have been traditionally been used as insulating liquids in the transformer applications to protect the solid insulation from moisture and ensures effective heat transfer/cooling. The performance of these type of oils have been proven in the field over many decades and the condition monitoring and diagnosis of transformer performance have been successfully monitored through oil properties and dissolved gas analysis methods successfully. Different type of gases representing various types of faults due to components or operating conditions effectively. While large amount of data base has been generated in the industry on dissolved gas analysis for mineral oil based transformer oils and various models for predicting the fault and analysis, oil specifications and standards have also been modified to include stray gassing limits which cover the low temperature faults and becomes an effective preventative maintenance tool that can benefit greatly to know the reasons for the breakdown of electrical insulating materials and related components. Natural esters have seen a rise in popularity in recent years due to their "green" credentials. Some of its benefits include biodegradability, a higher fire point, improvement in load capability of transformer and improved solid insulation life than mineral oils. However, the Stray gases evolution like hydrogen and hydrocarbons like methane (CH4) and ethane (C2H6) show very high values which are much higher than the limits of mineral oil standards. Though the standards for these type esters are yet to be evolved, the higher values of hydrocarbon gases that are available in the market is of concern which might be interpreted as a fault in transformer operation. The current paper focuses on developing a natural ester based transformer oil which shows very levels of stray gassing by standard test methods show much lower values compared to the products available currently and experimental results on various test conditions and the underlying mechanism explained.

Keywords: biodegadability, fire point, dissolved gassing analysis, stray gassing

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: Neha Singh, Anshuman Rana

Abstract:

Gender-Based Violence (GBV) is a violation of human rights and a form of discrimination which reinforces inequalities between men and women. It is defined as violence that is directed against a person on the basis of gender. There has been increased attention to human trafficking that has exposed to illegal migration. Trafficking is complex, but it generally takes place due to “push and pull factors”. India is both a source as well as a transit country for trafficking. Women are bought and sold with impunity and trafficked to other countries. They are forced to work as sex worker, forced labour and other practices of slavery. Trafficked victims often suffer from serious abuse and physical exhaustion. The effects of violence on women vary widely. GBV typically has physical, psychological and social effects. They face unwanted pregnancies, miscarriages, high rate of infertility and sexually transmitted disease. The social exclusion of women is so great that it constitutes a new form of apartheid. Women are considered as lesser value and deprived of their fundamental rights. Violation of human rights and fundamental freedom such as- trafficking of women, girls for sex trade, forced prostitution and sex tourism have become the focus of internationally organized crimes. My paper will analyse the impact of violence on society as well. Law alone cannot change the scenario and problem of gender-biasness. The whole issue of gender violence needs social awakening and change in attitude of masses, so that due respect and equal status is given to women.

Keywords: gender-based violence, trafficking, migration, violence impact, social exclusion, law enforcement

Procedia PDF Downloads 283

Authors: Marco Camilli

Abstract:

This article examines the impact of the pandemic outbreak of COVID-19 in the tourism sector in Italy, analyzing the current scenario, the government decisions and the private company reaction for the summer season 2020. The framework of the data analyzed shows how massive it’s the impact of the pandemic outbreak in the tourism revenue, and the weaknesses of the measures proposed. Keywords Travel &Tourism, Transportation, Sustainability, COVID-19, Businesses Introduction The current COVID-19 scenario shows a shocking situation for the tourism and transportation sectors: it could be the most affected by the Coronavirus in Italy. According to forecasts, depending on the duration of the epidemic outbreak and the lockdown strategy applied by the Government, businesses in the supply chain could lose between 24 and 66 billion in turnover in the period of 2020-21, with huge diversified impacts at the national and regional level. Many tourist companies are on the verge of survival and if there are no massive measures by the government they risk closure. Data analysis The tourism and transport sector could be among the sectors most damaged by Covid-19 in Italy. Considering the two-year period 2020-21, companies operating in the travel & tourism sector (Tour operator, Travel Agencies, Hotel, Guides, Bus Company, etc..) could in suffer losses in revenues of 24 to 64 billion euros, especially in the sectors such as the travel agencies, hotel and rental. According to Statista Research Department, from April 2020 estimated that the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic will have a significant impact on revenues of the tourism industry in Italy. Revenues are expected to decrease by over 40 billion euros in the first semester of 2020, compared to the same period of the previous year. According to the study, hotel and non-hotel accommodations will experience the highest loss. Revenues of this sector are expected to decrease by 13 billion euros compared to the first semester of 2019 when accommodations registered revenues for about 17 billion euros. According to Statista.com, in 2020, Italy is expected to register a decrease of roughly 28.5 million tourist arrivals due to the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on the country's tourist sector. According to the estimate, the region of Veneto will record the highest drop with a decrease of roughly 4.61 million arrivals. Similarly, Lombardy is expected to register a decrease of about 3.87 million arrivals in 2020.

Keywords: travel and tourism, sustainability, COVID-19, businesses, transportation

Procedia PDF Downloads 200

Authors: Mustarakh Gelfi, Tiedo Vellinga, Poonam Taneja, Delon Hamonangan

Abstract:

The development of New Priok/Kalibaru as an expansion terminal of the old port has been being done by IPC (Indonesia Port Cooperation) together with the subsidiary company, Port Developer (PT Pengembangan Pelabuhan Indonesia). As stated in the master plan, from 2 phases that had been proposed, phase I has shown its form and even Container Terminal I has been operated in 2016. It was planned principally, the development will be divided into Phase I (2013-2018) consist of 3 container terminals and 2 product terminals and Phase II (2018-2023) consist of 4 container terminals. In fact, the master plan has to be changed due to some major uncertainties which were escaped in prediction. This study is focused on the design scenario of phase II (2035- onwards) to deal with future uncertainty. The outcome is the robust design of phase II of the Kalibaru Terminal taking into account the future changes. Flexibility has to be a major goal in such a large infrastructure project like New Priok in order to deal and manage future uncertainty. The phasing of project needs to be adapted and re-look frequently before being irrelevant to future challenges. One of the frameworks that have been developed by an expert in port planning is Adaptive Port Planning (APP) with scenario-based planning. The idea behind APP framework is the adaptation that might be needed at any moment as an answer to a challenge. It is a continuous procedure that basically aims to increase the lifespan of waterborne transport infrastructure by increasing flexibility in the planning, contracting and design phases. Other methods used in this study are brainstorming with the port authority, desk study, interview and site visit to the real project. The result of the study is expected to be the insight for the port authority of Tanjung Priok over the future look and how it will impact the design of the port. There will be guidelines to do the design in an uncertain environment as well. Solutions of flexibility can be divided into: 1 - Physical solutions, all the items related hard infrastructure in the projects. The common things in this type of solution are using modularity, standardization, multi-functional, shorter and longer design lifetime, reusability, etc. 2 - Non-physical solutions, usually related to the planning processes, decision making and management of the projects. To conclude, APP framework seems quite robust to deal with the problem of designing phase II of New Priok Project for such a long period.

Keywords: Indonesia port, port's design, port planning, scenario-based planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 240

Authors: Ioana Dallinger, Vincent P. Magnini

Abstract:

Due to the many moving parts and high human component, mistakes and failures sometimes occur during transactions in service environments. Because a certain portion of such failures is unavoidable, many service providers constantly look for guidance regarding optimal ways by which they should manage failures and recoveries. Through the use of a scenario-based experiment, the findings of this study run counter to the empowerment approach (i.e. that frontline employees should be empowered to resolve failure situations on their own doing). Specifically, this study finds that customers’ perceptions of distributive, procedural, and interactional justice are significantly higher [p-values < .05] when a manager delivers an apology as opposed to the frontline provider. Moreover, customers’ satisfaction with the recovery and commitment to the firm are also significantly stronger [p-values < .05] when a manager apologizes. Interestingly, this study also empirically tests the effects of combined apologies of both the manager and employee and finds that the combined approach yields better results for customers’ interactional justice perceptions and for their satisfaction with recovery, but not for their distributive or procedural justice perceptions or consequent commitment to the firm. This study can serve a springboard for further research. For example, perceptions and attitudes regarding employee empowerment vary based upon country culture. Furthermore, there are likely a number of factors that can moderate the cause and effect relationship between a failure recovery and customers’ post-recovery perceptions [e.g. the severity of the failure].

Keywords: apology, empowerment, service failure recovery, service recovery

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Francisco Pereira, Elton Rossini

Abstract:

The use of alternative energy sources to meet energy demand reduces environmental damage. To diversify an energy matrix and to minimize global warming, a solar energy is gaining space, being an important source of renewable energy, and its potential depends on the climatic conditions of the region. Brazil presents a great solar potential for a generation of electric energy, so the knowledge of solar radiation and its characteristics are fundamental for the study of energy use. Due to the above reasons, this article aims to verify the climatic variability corresponding to the variations in solar radiation anomalies, in the face of climate change scenarios. The data used in this research are part of the Intercomparison of Interconnected Models, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which contributed to the preparation of the fifth IPCC-AR5 report. The solar radiation data were extracted from The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) model using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios that represent an intermediate structure and a pessimistic framework, the latter being the most worrisome in all cases. In order to allow the use of solar radiation as a source of energy in a given location and/or region, it is important, first, to determine its availability, thus justifying the importance of the study. The results pointed out, for the 75-year period (2026-2100), based on a pessimistic scenario, indicate a drop in solar radiation of the approximately 12% in the eastern region of Rio Grande do Sul. Factors that influence the pessimistic prospects of this scenario should be better observed by the responsible authorities, since they can affect the possibility to produce electricity from solar radiation.

Keywords: climate change, energy, IPCC, solar radiation

Procedia PDF Downloads 194