Search results for: sensitivity index

Authors: Camilo A. Guerrero-Martin, Erik Montes Paez, Marcia C. K. Oliveira, Jonathan Campos, Elizabete F. Lucas

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Asphaltenes precipitation is considered as a formation damage problem, which can reduce the oil recovery factor. It fouls piping and surface installations, as well as cause serious flow assurance complications and decline oil well production. Therefore, researchers have shown an interest in chemical treatments to control this phenomenon. The aim of this paper is to assess the asphaltenes precipitation onset of crude oils in the presence of cardanol, by titrating the crude with n-heptane. Moreover, based on this results obtained at atmosphere pressure, the asphaltenes precipitation onset pressure were calculated to predict asphaltenes precipitation in the reservoir, by using differential liberation and refractive index data of the oils. The influence of cardanol concentrations in the asphaltenes stabilization of three Brazilian crude oils samples (with similar API densities) was studied. Therefore, four formulations of cardanol in toluene were prepared: 0, 3, 5, 10 and 15 m/m%. The formulations were added to the crude at 2:98 ratio. The petroleum samples were characterized by API density, elemental analysis and differential liberation test. The asphaltenes precipitation onset (APO) was determined by titrating with n-heptane and monitoring with near-infrared (NIR). UV-Vis spectroscopy experiments were also done to assess the precipitate asphaltenes content. The asphaltenes precipitation envelopes (APE) were also determined by numerical simulation (Multiflash). In addition, the adequate artificial lift systems (ALS) for the oils were selected. It was based on the downhole well profile and a screening methodology. Finally, the oil flowrates were modelling by NODAL analysis production system in the PIPESIM software. The results of this study show that the asphaltenes precipitation onset of the crude oils were 2.2, 2.3 and 6.0 mL of n-heptane/g of oil. The cardanol was an effective inhibitor of asphaltenes precipitation for the crude oils used in this study, since it displaces the precipitation pressure of the oil to lower values. This indicates that cardanol can increase the oil wells productivity.

Keywords: asphaltenes, NODAL analysis production system, precipitation pressure onset, inhibitory molecule

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Authors: Wenyang Wan

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The study of urban land use and landscape pattern is the current hotspot in the fields of planning and design, ecology, etc., which is of great significance for the construction of the overall humanistic ecosystem of the city and optimization of the urban spatial structure. Banan District, as the main part of the eastern eco-city planning of Chongqing Municipality, is a new high ground for highlighting the ecological characteristics of Chongqing, realizing effective transformation of ecological value, and promoting the integrated development of urban and rural areas. The analytical methods of land use transfer matrix (GIS) and landscape pattern index (Fragstats) were used to study the characteristics and laws of the evolution of land use landscape pattern in Banan District from 2000 to 2020, which provide some reference value for Banan District to alleviate the ecological contradiction of landscape. The results of the study show that: ① Banan District is rich in land use types, of which the area of cultivated land will still account for 57.15% of the total area of the landscape until 2020, accounting for an absolute advantage in the land use structure of Banan District; ② From 2000 to 2020, land use conversion in Banan District is characterized as: Cropland > woodland > grassland > shrubland > built-up land > water bodies > wetlands, with cropland converted to built-up land being the largest; ③ From 2000 to 2020, the landscape elements of Banan District were distributed in a balanced way, and the landscape types were rich and diversified, but due to the influence of human interference, it also presented the characteristics that the shape of the landscape elements tended to be irregular, and the dominant patches were distributed in a scattered manner, and the patches had poor connectivity. It is recommended that in future regional ecological construction, the layout should be rationally optimized, the relationship between landscape components should be coordinated, and the connectivity between landscape patches should be strengthened, and the degree of landscape fragmentation should be reduced.

Keywords: land use transfer, landscape pattern evolution, GIS and FRAGSTATS, Banan District

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Authors: I GD Yudha Partama, A. Kanno, Y. Akamatsu, R. Inui, M. Goto, M. Sekine

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The aerial photogrammetry of shallow water bottoms has the potential to be an efficient high-resolution survey technique for shallow water topography, thanks to the advent of convenient UAV and automatic image processing techniques Structure-from-Motion (SfM) and Multi-View Stereo (MVS)). However, it suffers from the systematic overestimation of the bottom elevation, due to the light refraction at the air-water interface. In this study, we present an empirical method to correct for the effect of refraction after the usual SfM-MVS processing, using common software. The presented method utilizes the empirical relation between the measured true depth and the estimated apparent depth to generate an empirical correction factor. Furthermore, this correction factor was utilized to convert the apparent water depth into a refraction-corrected (real-scale) water depth. To examine its effectiveness, we applied the method to two river sites, and compared the RMS errors in the corrected bottom elevations with those obtained by three existing methods. The result shows that the presented method is more effective than the two existing methods: The method without applying correction factor and the method utilizes the refractive index of water (1.34) as correction factor. In comparison with the remaining existing method, which used the additive terms (offset) after calculating correction factor, the presented method performs well in Site 2 and worse in Site 1. However, we found this linear regression method to be unstable when the training data used for calibration are limited. It also suffers from a large negative bias in the correction factor when the apparent water depth estimated is affected by noise, according to our numerical experiment. Overall, the good accuracy of refraction correction method depends on various factors such as the locations, image acquisition, and GPS measurement conditions. The most effective method can be selected by using statistical selection (e.g. leave-one-out cross validation).

Keywords: bottom elevation, MVS, river, SfM

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Authors: S. B. D. Samarasinghe, Malini Herath

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Participatory planning is a very important process for decision making and choosing the best alternative options for community welfare, development of the society and its interactions among community and professionals. People’s involvement is considered as the key guidance in participatory planning. Presently, Participatory planning is being used in many fields. It's not only limited to planning but also to disaster management, poverty, housing, etc. In the past, Disaster management practice was a top-down approach, but it raised many issues as it was converted to a bottom-up approach. There are several approaches that can aid disaster management. Community-Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) is a very successful participatory approach to risk management that is often successfully applied by other disaster-prone countries. In the local context, CBDRM has been applied to prevent Diseases as well as to prevent disasters such as landslides, tsunamis and floods. From three years before, Sri Lanka has initiated the CBDRM approach to minimize landslide vulnerability. Hence, this study mainly focuses on the impact of CBDRM approaches on landslide hazards. Also to identify their successes and failures from both implementing parties and community. This research is carried out based on a qualitative method combined with a descriptive research approach. A successful framework was prepared via a literature review. Case studies were selected considering landslide CBDRM programs which were implemented by Disaster Management Center and National Building Research Organization in Badulla. Their processes were evaluated. Data collection is done through interviews and informal discussions. Then their ideas were quantified by using the Relative Effectiveness index. The resulting numerical value was used to rank the program effectiveness and their success, failures and impacting factors. Results show that there are several failures among implementing parties and the community. Overcoming those factors can make way for better conduction of future CBDRM programs.

Keywords: community-based disaster risk management, disaster management, preparedness, landslide

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Authors: Mahsa Tavakoli, Seyed Mohammad Hojjati, Yahya Kooch

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Considering that coal mining is one of the important industrial activities, it may cause damages to environment. According to the author’s best knowledge, the effect of traditional coal mining activities on plant biodiversity has not been investigated in the Hyrcanian forests. Therefore, in this study, the effect of coal mining activities on vegetation and tree diversity was investigated in Hyrcanian forest, North Iran. After filed visiting and determining the mine, 16 plots (20×20 m²) were established by systematic-randomly (60×60 m²) in an area of 4 ha (200×200 m²-mine entrance placed at center). An area adjacent to the mine was not affected by the mining activity, and it is considered as the control area. In each plot, the data about trees such as number and type of species were recorded. The biodiversity of vegetation cover was considered 5 square sub-plots (1 m²) in each plot. PAST software and Ecological Methodology were used to calculate Biodiversity indices. The value of Shannon Wiener and Simpson diversity indices for tree cover in control area (1.04±0.34 and 0.62±0.20) was significantly higher than mining area (0.78±0.27 and 0.45±0.14). The value of evenness indices for tree cover in the mining area was significantly lower than that of the control area. The value of Shannon Wiener and Simpson diversity indices for vegetation cover in the control area (1.37±0.06 and 0.69±0.02) was significantly higher than the mining area (1.02±0.13 and 0.50±0.07). The value of evenness index in the control area was significantly higher than the mining area. Plant communities are a good indicator of the changes in the site. Study about changes in vegetation biodiversity and plant dynamics in the degraded land can provide necessary information for forest management and reforestation of these areas.

Keywords: vegetation biodiversity, species composition, traditional coal mining, Caspian forest

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Authors: Priscilla Echeverria

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This paper addresses initial teacher formation as a formative space in which pedagogy students develop a pedagogical agency capacity to contribute to social justice, considering ethical, political, and epistemic dimensions. This paper is structured by discussing first the concepts of agency, pedagogical interaction, and social justice from a critical perspective; and continues offering preliminary results on the capacity of pedagogical agency in novice teachers after the analysis of critical incidents as a research methodology. This study is motivated by the concern that responding to the current neoliberal scenario, many initial teacher formation (ITF) programs have reduced the meaning of education to instruction, and pedagogy to methodology, favouring the formation of a technical professional over a reflective or critical one. From this concern, this study proposes that the restitution of the subject is an urgent task in teacher formation, so it is essential to enable him in his capacity for action and advance in eliminating institutionalized oppression insofar as it affects that capacity. Given that oppression takes place in human interaction, through this work, I propose that initial teacher formation develops sensitivity and educates the gaze to identify oppression and take action against it, both in pedagogical interactions -which configure political, ethical, and epistemic subjectivities- as in the hidden and official curriculum. All this from the premise that modelling democratic and dialogical interactions are basic for any program that seeks to contribute to a more just and empowered society. The contribution of this study lies in the fact that it opens a discussion in an area about which we know little: the impact of the type of interactions offered by university teaching at ITF on the capacity of future teachers to be pedagogical agents. For this reason, this study seeks to gather evidence of the result of this formation, analysing the capacity of pedagogical agency of novice teachers, or, in other words, how capable the graduates of secondary pedagogies are in their first pedagogical experiences to act and make decisions putting the formative purposes that they are capable of autonomously defining before technical or bureaucratic issues imposed by the curriculum or the official culture. This discussion is part of my doctoral research, "The importance of developing the capacity for ethical-political-epistemic agency in novice teachers during initial teacher formation to contribute to social justice", which I am currently developing in the Educational Research program of the University of Lancaster, United Kingdom, as a Conicyt fellow for the 2019 cohort.

Keywords: initial teacher formation, pedagogical agency, pedagogical interaction, social justice, hidden curriculum

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Authors: Nighat Bakhtiar, Ali Raza Khan, Shahid Khan Khattak, Aamir Ali Syed

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Introduction: Chemoradiation followed by resection has been the standard therapy for resectable (cT1-4aN0-3M0) esophageal carcinoma. The optimal surgical approach remains a matter of debate. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to share our experiences of minimal invasive esophagectomies concerning morbidity, mortality and oncological quality. This study aims to enlighten the world about the surgical outcomes after minimally invasive esophagectomy at Shaukat Khanum Hospital Lahore. Objective: The purpose of this study is to review an institutional experience of Surgical outcomes of Minimal Invasive esophagectomies for esophageal cancer. Methodology: This retrospective study was performed after ethical approval at Shaukat Khanum Memorial Cancer Hospital and Research Centre (SKMCH&RC) Pakistan. Patients who underwent Minimal Invasive esophagectomies for esophageal cancer from March 2018 to March 2023 were selected. Data was collected through the human information system (HIS) electronic database of SKMCH&RC. Data was described using mean and median with minimum and maximum values for quantitative variables. For categorical variables, a number of observations and percentages were reported. Results: A total of 621 patients were included in the study, with the mean age of the patient was 39 years, ranging between 18-58 years. Mean Body Mass Index of patients was 21.2.1±4.1. Neo-adjuvant chemoradiotherapy was given to all patients. The mean operative time was 210.36 ± 64.51 minutes, and the mean blood loss was 121 milliliters. There was one mortality in 90 days, while the mean postoperative hospital stay was 6.58 days with a 4.64 standard deviation. The anastomotic leak rate was 4.2%. Chyle leak was observed in 12 patients. Conclusion: The minimal invasive technique is a safe approach for esophageal cancers, with minimal complications and fast recovery.

Keywords: minimal invasive, esophagectomy, laparscopic, cancer

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Authors: Nitin Kumar

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Purpose: The current research work focuses mainly on evolving a delivery system for ginseng extract (GE), which in turn will ameliorate the neuroprotective potential by means of enhancing the ginsenoside (Rb1) bio-availability (BA). For more noteworthy enhancement in oral bioavailability (OBA) along with pharmacological properties, the drug carriers’ performance can be strengthened by utilizing phytosomes-loaded microspheres (PM) delivery system. Methods: For preparing the disparate phytosome complexes (F1, F2, and F3), an aqueous extract of ginseng roots (GR) along with phospholipids were reacted in disparate ratio. Considering the outcomes, F3 formulation (spray-dried) was chosen for preparing the phytosomes powder (PP), PM, and extract microspheres (EM). PM was made by means of loading of F3 into Gum Arabic (GA) in addition to maltodextrin polymer mixture, whereas EM was prepared by means of the addition of extract directly into the same polymer mixture. For investigating the neuroprotective effect (NPE) in addition to their pharmacokinetic (PK) properties, PP, PM, and EM formulations were assessed. Results: F3 formulation gave enhanced entrapment efficiency (EE) (i.e., 50.61%) along with good homogeneity of spherical shaped particle size (PS) (42.58 ± 1.4 nm) with least polydispersity index (PDI) (i.e., 0.193 ± 0.01). The sustained release (up to 24 h) of ginsenoside Rb1 (GRb1) is revealed by the dissolution study of PM. A significantly (p < 0.05) greater anti-oxidant (AO) potential of PM can well be perceived as of the diminution in the lipid peroxidase level in addition to the rise in the glutathione superoxide dismutase (SOD) in addition to catalase levels. It also showed a greater neuroprotective potential exhibiting significant (p < 0.05) augmentation in the nociceptive threshold together with the diminution in damage to nerves. A noteworthy enhancement in the relative BA (157.94%) of GRb1 through the PM formulation can well be seen in the PK studies. Conclusion: It is exhibited that the PM system is an optimistic and feasible strategy to enhance the delivery of GE for the effectual treatment of neuropathic pain.

Keywords: ginseng, neuropathic, phytosome, pain

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Authors: Lubna Khondker

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Background: Melasma is a common pigmentary dermatosis, manifested by hyperpigmented macules or patches on the face, commonly occurring in females due to an acquired disorder in the melanogenesis process. Although several treatments are currently used, it remains a great challenge due to recurrence and refractory nature. It was recently reported that tranexamic acid (TA-plasmin inhibitor) is an effective treatment for melasma. Objective: This study aims to compare the efficacy and side effects of intralesional injection of Tranexamic acid with oral Tranexamic acid in the treatment of melasma. Methods: A clinical trial was done in the Department of Dermatology and Venereology, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University, for a period of 4 years. A total of 100 patients with melasma who did not respond to topical therapy were included in the study as group A and group B. Group A Patients were administered intralesional injection (10 mg/ml) of Tranexamic acid( TA) weekly for 6 weeks, and group B patients were treated with oral tranexamic acid 250 mg 12 hourly for 12 weeks after taking informed consent. The severity and extent of pigmentation were assessed by the modified melasma area severity index (MASI). The response to treatment was assessed by MASI at 4 weeks, 8 weeks, and 12 weeks after stopping treatment. Results: The study showed the MASI scores at the baseline, 4 weeks, 8 weeks, and 12 weeks in group A were 18.23±1.22, 6.14±3.26, 3.21±2.14 and 2.11±2.01 respectively, and in group B, 17.87±1.12, 11.21±6.25, 6.57±4.26 and 6.41±4.17 respectively. The mean MASI significantly reduced in group A compared to group B in the 4th, 8th, and 12th weeks. The present study showed that among group A patients, 56% rated excellent (>75% reduction) in outcome, 32% good (50-75% reduction), 8% moderate (25-50% reduction) and only 4% (<25% reduction) was unsatisfactory and among group B patients, 14% rated excellent in outcome, 28% good, 36% moderate and 22% was unsatisfactory. Overall improvement in our study in group A was 96% and in group B 78%. Side effects were negligible, and all the patients tolerated the treatment well. Conclusion: Based on our results, intralesional Tranexamic acid (10 mg/ml) is more effective and safer than oral Tranexamic acid in the treatment of melasma.

Keywords: intralesional tranexamic acid, melasma, oral tranexamic acid, MASI score

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Authors: Aruma Baduge Kithma Hansanee De Silva

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Haskap (Lonicera caerulea L.), also known as blue honeysuckle, is a recently commercialized berry crop in Canada. Haskap berries are rich in polyphenols, including anthocyanins, which are known for potential health-promoting effects. Cyanidin-3-O-glucoside (C3G) is the most prominent anthocyanin of haskap berries. Recent literature reveals the efficacy of C3G in reducing the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), which has become an increasingly common health issue around the world. The T2D is characterized as a metabolic disorder of hyperglycemia and insulin resistance. It has been demonstrated that C3G has anti-diabetic effects in various ways, including improvement in insulin sensitivity, and inhibition of activities of carbohydrate-hydrolyzing enzymes, including alpha-amylase and alpha-glucosidase. The goal of this study was to investigate the influence of variety and harvesting date on haskap composition, biological properties, and antidiabetic properties. The polyphenolic compounds present in four commercially grown haskap cultivars, Aurora, Rebecca, Larissa and Evie among five harvesting stages (H1-H5), were extracted separately in 80% ethanol and analyzed to characterize their phenolic profiles. The haskap berries contain different types of polyphenols including flavonoids and phenolic acids. Anthocyanin is the major type of flavonoid. C3G is the most prominent type of anthocyanin, which accounts for 79% of total anthocyanin in all extracts. The variety Larissa at H5 contained the highest average C3G content, and its ethanol extract had the highest (1212.3±63.9 mg/100g FW) while, Evie at H1 contained the lowest C3G content (96.9±40.4 mg/100g FW). The average C3G content of Larissa from H1 – H5 varies from 208 – 1212 mg/100g FW. Quarcetin-3-Rutinoside (Q3Rut) is the major type of flavonol and highest is observed in Rebecca at H4 (47.81 mg/100g FW). The haskap berries also contained phenolic acids, but approximately 95% of the phenolic acids consisted of chlorogenic acid. The cultivar Larissa has a higher level of anthocyanin than the other four cultivars. The highest total phenolic content is observed in Evie at H5 (2.97±1.03 mg/g DW) while the lowest in Rebecca at H1 (1.47±0.96 mg/g DW). The antioxidant capacity of Evie at H5 was higher (14.40±2.21 µmol TE/ g DW) among other cultivars and the lowest observed in Aurora at H3 (5.69±0.34 µmol TE/ g DW). Furthermore, Larissa H5 shows the greatest inhibition of carbohydrate-hydrolyzing enzymes including alpha-glucosidase and alpha-amylase. In conclusion Larissa, at H5 demonstrated highest polyphenol composition and antidiabetic properties.

Keywords: anthocyanin, cyanidin-3-O-glucoside, haskap, type 2 diabetes

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Authors: Joanna Fidelus-Orzechowska, Dominika Wronska-Walach, Jaroslaw Cebulski

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Mountain areas are very often exposed to numerous transformations connected with the development of tourist infrastructure. In mountain areas in Poland ski tourism is very popular, so agricultural areas are often transformed into tourist areas. The construction of new ski runs can change the direction and rate of slope development. The main aim of this research was to determine geomorphological and hydrological changes within slopes caused by ski run constructions. The study was conducted in the Remiaszów catchment in the Inner Polish Carpathians (southern Poland). The mean elevation of the catchment is 859 m a.s.l. and the maximum is 946 m a.s.l. The surface area of the catchment is 1.16 km2, of which 16.8% is the area of the two studied ski runs. The studied ski runs were constructed in 2014 and 2015. In order to determine the relief transformations connected with new ski run construction high resolution LIDAR data was analyzed. The general relief changes in the studied catchment were determined on the basis of ALS (Airborne Laser Scanning ) data obtained before (2013) and after (2016) ski run construction. Based on the two sets of ALS data a digital elevation models of differences (DoDs) was created, which made it possible to determine the quantitative relief changes in the entire studied catchment. Additionally, cross and longitudinal profiles were calculated within slopes where new ski runs were built. Detailed data on relief changes within selected test surfaces was obtained based on TLS (Terrestrial Laser Scanning). Hydrological changes within the analyzed catchment were determined based on the convergence and divergence index. The study shows that the construction of the new ski runs caused significant geomorphological and hydrological changes in the entire studied catchment. However, the most important changes were identified within the ski slopes. After the construction of ski runs the entire catchment area lowered about 0.02 m. Hydrological changes in the studied catchment mainly led to the interruption of surface runoff pathways and changes in runoff direction and geometry.

Keywords: hydrological changes, mountain areas, relief transformations, ski run construction

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Authors: Norbert Simon, Rodeano Roslee, Abdul Ghani Rafek, Goh Thian Lai, Azimah Hussein, Lee Khai Ern

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The 54 km stretch of Ranau-Tambunan (RTM) road in Sabah is subjected to slope failures almost every year. This study is focusing on identifying section of roads that are susceptible to failure based on temporal landslide density and lineament density analyses. In addition to the analyses, the rock slopes in several sections of the road were assessed using the geological strength index (GSI) technique. The analysis involved 148 landslides that were obtained in 1978, 1994, 2009 and 2011. The landslides were digitized as points and the point density was calculated based on every 1km2 of the road. The lineaments of the area was interpreted from Landsat 7 15m panchromatic band. The lineament density was later calculated based on every 1km2 of the area using similar technique with the slope failure density calculation. The landslide and lineament densities were classified into three different classes that indicate the level of susceptibility (low, moderate, high). Subsequently, the two density maps were overlap to produce the final susceptibility map. The combination of both high susceptibility classes from these maps signifies the high potential of slope failure in those locations in the future. The final susceptibility map indicates that there are 22 sections of the road that are highly susceptible. Seven rock slopes were assessed along the RTM road using the GSI technique. It was found from the assessment that rock slopes along this road are highly fractured, weathered and can be classified into fair to poor categories. The poor condition of the rock slope can be attributed to the high lineament density that presence in the study area. Six of the rock slopes are located in the high susceptibility zones. A detailed investigation on the 22 high susceptibility sections of the RTM road should be conducted due to their higher susceptibility to failure, in order to prevent untoward incident to road users in the future.

Keywords: GSI, landslide, landslide density, landslide susceptibility, lineament density

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Authors: Stefaan Carpentier, Aya Al Masri, Fabrice Leroy, Thibault Julien, Safoin Aktaou, Malorie Martin, Fouad Maaloul

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Introduction: During an 'Interventional Radiology (IR)' procedure, the patient's skin-dose may become very high for a burn, necrosis, and ulceration to appear. In order to prevent these deterministic effects, a prediction of the peak skin-dose for the patient is important in order to improve the post-operative care to be given to the patient. The objective of this study is to estimate, before the intervention, the patient dose for ‘Chronic Total Occlusion (CTO)’ procedures by selecting relevant clinical indicators. Materials and methods: 103 procedures were performed in the ‘Interventional Cardiology (IC)’ department using a Siemens Artis Zee image intensifier that provides the Air Kerma of each IC exam. Peak Skin Dose (PSD) was measured for each procedure using radiochromic films. Patient parameters such as sex, age, weight, and height were recorded. The complexity index J-CTO score, specific to each intervention, was determined by the cardiologist. A correlation method applied to these indicators allowed to specify their influence on the dose. A predictive model of the dose was created using multiple linear regressions. Results: Out of 103 patients involved in the study, 5 were excluded for clinical reasons and 2 for placement of radiochromic films outside the exposure field. 96 2D-dose maps were finally used. The influencing factors having the highest correlation with the PSD are the patient's diameter and the J-CTO score. The predictive model is based on these parameters. The comparison between estimated and measured skin doses shows an average difference of 0.85 ± 0.55 Gy for doses of less than 6 Gy. The mean difference between air-Kerma and PSD is 1.66 Gy ± 1.16 Gy. Conclusion: Using our developed method, a first estimate of the dose to the skin of the patient is available before the start of the procedure, which helps the cardiologist in carrying out its intervention. This estimation is more accurate than that provided by the Air-Kerma.

Keywords: chronic total occlusion procedures, clinical experimentation, interventional radiology, patient's peak skin dose

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Authors: Ashneel Ajay Singh, Naoki Suzuki, Kazumi Sakuramoto, Swastika Roshni, Paras Nath, Alok Kalla

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Albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) is one of the commercially important species of tuna in the North Pacific region. Despite the long history of albacore fisheries in the Pacific, its ecological characteristics are not sufficiently understood. The effects of changing climate on numerous commercially and ecologically important fish species including albacore tuna have been documented over the past decades. The objective of this study was to explore and elucidate the relationship of environmental variables with the stock parameters of albacore tuna. The relationship of the North Pacific albacore tuna recruitment (R), spawning stock biomass (SSB) and recruits per spawning biomass (RPS) from 1970 to 2012 with the environmental factors of sea surface temperature (SST), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific warm pool index (PWI) was construed. SST and PDO were used as independent variables with SSB to construct stock reproduction models for R and RPS as they showed most significant relationship with the dependent variables. ENSO and PWI were excluded due to collinearity effects with SST and PDO. Model selections were based on R2 values, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and significant parameter estimates at p<0.05. Models with single independent variables of SST, PDO, ENSO and PWI were also constructed to illuminate their individual effect on albacore R and RPS. From the results it can be said that SST and PDO resulted in the most significant models for reproducing North Pacific albacore tuna R and RPS time series. SST has the highest impact on albacore R and RPS when comparing models with single environmental variables. It is important for fishery managers and decision makers to incorporate the findings into their albacore tuna management plans for the North Pacific Oceanic region.

Keywords: Albacore tuna, El Niño southern oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, sea surface temperature

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Authors: Sneha Shankar, Orlando Buendia, Will Evans

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Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) is a rare, genetic, and multisystemic condition. Underdiagnosis is common, leading to chronic pulmonary and hepatic complications, increased resource utilization, and additional costs to the healthcare system. Currently, there is limited evidence of the direct medical costs of AATD diagnosis in the UK. This study explores the economic impact of AATD patients during the 3 years before diagnosis and to identify the major cost drivers using primary and secondary care electronic health record (EHR) data. The 3 years before diagnosis time period was chosen based on the ability of our tool to identify patients earlier. The AATD algorithm was created using published disease criteria and applied to 148 known AATD patients’ EHR found in a primary care database of 936,148 patients (413,674 Biobank and 501,188 in a single primary care locality). Among 148 patients, 9 patients were flagged earlier by the tool and, on average, could save 3 (1-6) years per patient. We analysed 101 of the 148 AATD patients’ primary care journey and 20 patients’ Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data, all of whom had at least 3 years of clinical history in their records before diagnosis. The codes related to laboratory tests, clinical visits, referrals, hospitalization days, day case, and inpatient admissions attributable to AATD were examined in this 3-year period before diagnosis. The average cost per patient was calculated, and the direct medical costs were modelled based on the mean prevalence of 100 AATD patients in a 500,000 population. A deterministic sensitivity analysis (DSA) of 20% was performed to determine the major cost drivers. Cost data was obtained from the NHS National tariff 2020/21, National Schedule of NHS Costs 2018/19, PSSRU 2018/19, and private care tariff. The total direct medical cost of one hundred AATD patients three years before diagnosis in primary and secondary care in the UK was £3,556,489, with an average direct cost per patient of £35,565. A vast majority of this total direct cost (95%) was associated with inpatient admissions (£3,378,229). The DSA determined that the costs associated with tier-2 laboratory tests and inpatient admissions were the greatest contributors to direct costs in primary and secondary care, respectively. This retrospective study shows the role of EHRs in calculating direct medical costs and the potential benefit of new technologies for the early identification of patients with AATD to reduce the economic burden in primary and secondary care in the UK.

Keywords: alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency, costs, digital health, early diagnosis

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Authors: R. Sanchez-Salcedo, N. H. Voelcker

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Currently, low breast milk production in women is one of the leading health complications in infants. Recently, It has been demonstrated that exclusive breastfeeding, especially up to a minimum of 6 months, significantly reduces respiratory and gastrointestinal infections, which are the main causes of death in infants. However, the current data shows that a high percentage of women stop breastfeeding their children because they perceive an inadequate supply of milk, and only 45% of children are breastfeeding under 6 months. It is, therefore, clear the necessity to design and develop a biosensor that is sensitive and selective enough to identify and validate a panel of milk biomarkers that allow the early diagnosis of this condition. In this context, electrochemical biosensors could be a powerful tool for assessing all the requirements in terms of reliability, selectivity, sensitivity, cost efficiency and potential for multiplex detection. Moreover, they are suitable for the development of POC devices and wearable sensors. In this work, we report the development of two types of sensing platforms towards several biomarkers, including miRNAs and hormones present in breast milk and dysregulated in this pathological condition. The first type of sensing platform consists of an enzymatic sensor for the detection of lactose, one of the main components in milk. In this design, we used gold surface as an electrochemical transducer due to the several advantages, such as the variety of strategies available for its rapid and efficient functionalization with bioreceptors or capture molecules. For the second type of sensing platform, nanoporous silicon film (pSi) was chosen as the electrode material for the design of DNA sensors and aptasensors targeting miRNAs and hormones, respectively. pSi matrix offers a large superficial area with an abundance of active sites for the immobilization of bioreceptors and tunable characteristics, which increase the selectivity and specificity, making it an ideal alternative material. The analytical performance of the designed biosensors was not only characterized in buffer but also validated in minimally treated breastmilk samples. We have demonstrated the potential of an electrochemical transducer on pSi and gold surface for monitoring clinically relevant biomarkers associated with the heightened risk of low milk production in women. This approach, in which the nanofabrication techniques and the functionalization methods were optimized to increase the efficacy of the biosensor highly provided a foundation for further research and development of targeted diagnosis strategies.

Keywords: biosensors, electrochemistry, early diagnosis, clinical markers, miRNAs

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Authors: Jonnalagadda Naveen, M. P. S. Tomar, Putluru Satish, Palanisamy Dharani

Abstract:

Present investigation was carried out on a single specimen of the heart of yellow-bellied sea snake, which accidentally came to the seashore with the fisherman’s net. After the death, these specimens was preserved in 10% neutral buffered formalin and observe for its morphology. The literature cited revealed that meager information was available on the anatomy of the heart of this species of snake thus present study was planned on the gross anatomy of the heart of yellow-bellied sea snake. The heart of yellow-bellied sea snake was located between 28-35th rib in an oblique direction in the pericardial sac. It was three chambered with the complete division of atria but the ventricular cavity was incompletely divided. The apex did not show any gubernaculum cordis. The sinus venosus was the common cavity for confluence of anterior and posterior vana cava and the jugular vein was opened with anterior vena cava. The opening of posterior vena cava was slit-like and it was guarded by membranous valves whereas no valve could be observed at the opening of anterior vana cava and the jugular vein. Both the caval veins ran along the right border of the heart. Pulmonary vein was single which later divided into two branches. The length-width index for the atria was 1.33 whereas it was 1.67 for the ventricle. The atrioventricular canal was situated slightly towards the left of the midline of the heart and was divided into a right cavum pulmonale and left cavum arteriosum of which the right one was slightly larger and longer than the left. The cavum venosum was present in between the cavum pulmonale and the cavum arteriosum. The Ventricle was elongated triangle muscular compartment with ventrally located apex. Internally the cavity of ventricle was divided into two partial chambers dorsally by a muscular ridge and ventrally by an incomplete inter ventricular septum.

Keywords: aorta, atrium, heart, sea snake, sinus venosus, ventricle

Procedia PDF Downloads 204

Authors: Tejaswi Agarwal, Amritansh Agarwal

Abstract:

Forest ecosystem plays very important role in the global carbon cycle. It stores about 80% of all above ground and 40% of all below ground terrestrial organic carbon. There is much interest in the extent of tropical forests and their rates of deforestation for two reasons: greenhouse gas contributions and the impact of profoundly negative biodiversity. Deforestation has many ecological, social and economic consequences, one of which is the loss of biological diversity. The rapid deployment of remote sensing (RS) satellites and development of RS analysis techniques in the past three decades have provided a reliable, effective, and practical way to characterize terrestrial ecosystem properties. Global estimates of tropical deforestation vary widely and range from 50,000 to 170,000km2 /yr Recent FAO tropical deforestation estimates for 1990–1995 cite 116,756km2 / yr globally. Remote Sensing can prove to be a very useful tool in monitoring of forests and associated deforestation to a sufficient level of accuracy without the need of physically surveying the forest areas as many of them are physically inaccessible. The methodology for the assessment of forest cover using digital image processing (ERDAS) has been followed. The satellite data for the study was procured from Indian institute of remote Sensing (IIRS), Dehradoon in the digital format. While procuring the satellite data, care was taken to ensure that the data was cloud free and did not belong to dry and leafless season. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been used as a numerical indicator of the reduction in ground biomass. NDVI = (near I.R - Red)/ (near I.R + Red). After calculating the NDVI variations and associated mean, we have analysed the change in ground biomass. Through this paper, we have tried to indicate the rate of deforestation over a given period of time by comparing the forest cover at different time intervals. With the help of remote sensing and GIS techniques, it is clearly shown that the total forest cover is continuously degrading and transforming into various land use/land cover category.

Keywords: remote sensing, deforestation, supervised classification, NDVI, change detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 1198

Authors: Zinhle Cindi, Collet Dandara, Mpiko Ntsekhe, Edson Makambwa, Miguel Larceda

Abstract:

Background: Warfarin is the most commonly used drug in the management of thromboembolic disease. However, there is a huge variability in the time, number of doses or starting doses for patients to achieve the required international normalised ratio (INR) which is compounded by a narrow therapeutic index. Many genetic-association studies have reported on European and Asian populations which have led to the designing of specific algorithms that are now being used to assist in warfarin dosing. However, very few or no studies have looked at the pharmacogenetics of warfarin in African populations, yet, huge differences in dosage requirements to reach the same INR have been observed. Objective: We set out to investigate the distribution of 3 SNPs CYP4F2 c.1347C > T, VKORC1 g.-1639G > A and VKORC1 c.1173C > T among South African Mixed Ancestry (MA) and Black African patients. Methods: DNA was extracted from 383 participants and subsequently genotyped using PCR/RFLP for the CYP4F2 c.1347 (V433M) (rs2108622), VKORC1 g.-1639 (rs9923231) and VKORC1 c.1173 (rs9934438) SNPs. Results: Comparing the Black and MA groups, significant differences were observed in the distribution of the following genotypes; CYP4F2 c.1347C/T (23% vs. 39% p=0.03). All VKORC1 g.-1639G > A genotypes (p < 0.006) and all VKORC1 c.1173C > T genotypes (p < 0.007). Conclusion: CYP4F2 c.1347T (V433M) reduces CYP4F2 protein levels and therefore expected to affect the amount of warfarin needed to block vitamin k recycling. The VKORC1 g-1639A variant alters transcriptional regulation therefore affecting the function of vitamin k epoxide reductase in vitamin k production. The VKORC1 c.1173T variant reduces the enzyme activity of VKORC1 consequently enhancing the effectiveness of warfarin. These are preliminary results; more genetic characterization is required to understand all the genetic determinants affecting how patients respond to warfarin.

Keywords: algorithms, pharmacogenetics, thromboembolic disease, warfarin

Procedia PDF Downloads 256

Authors: Dilshad Ali Mohammed, Ziyad Nayef Shamsulddin Aldoski, Millet Salim Mohammed

Abstract:

The increase in levels of traffic congestion along urban signalized arterials needs efficient traffic management. The application of traffic signal coordination can improve the traffic operation and safety for a series of signalized intersection along the arterials. The objective of this study is to evaluate the benefits achievable through actuated traffic signal coordination and make a comparison in control delay against the same signalized intersection in case of being isolated. To accomplish this purpose, a series of eight signalized intersections located on two major arterials in Duhok City was chosen for conducting the study. Traffic data (traffic volumes, link and approach speeds, and passenger car equivalent) were collected at peak hours. Various methods had been used for collecting data such as video recording technique, moving vehicle method and manual methods. Geometric and signalization data were also collected for the purpose of the study. The coupling index had been calculated to check the coordination attainability, and then time space diagrams were constructed representing one-way coordination for the intersections on Barzani and Zakho Streets, and others represented two-way coordination for the intersections on Zakho Street with accepted progression bandwidth efficiency. The results of this study show great progression bandwidth of 54 seconds for east direction coordination and 17 seconds for west direction coordination on Barzani Street under suggested controlled speed of 60 kph agreeable with the present data. For Zakho Street, the progression bandwidth is 19 seconds for east direction coordination and 18 seconds for west direction coordination under suggested controlled speed of 40 kph. The results show that traffic signal coordination had led to high reduction in intersection control delays on both arterials.

Keywords: bandwidth, congestion, coordination, traffic, signals, streets

Procedia PDF Downloads 305

Authors: Rakhyun Kim, Sungho Tae

Abstract:

Global environmental issues such as abnormal weathers due to global warming, resource depletion, and ecosystem distortions have been escalating due to rapid increase of population growth, and expansion of industrial and economic development. Accordingly, initiatives have been implemented by many countries to protect the environment through indirect regulation methods such as Environmental Product Declaration (EPD), in addition to direct regulations such as various emission standards. Following this trend, life cycle assessment (LCA) techniques that provide quantitative environmental information, such as Human Toxicity Potential (HTP), for buildings are being developed in the construction industry. However, at present, the studies on the environmental database of building materials are not sufficient to provide this support adequately. The purpose of this study is to analysis human toxicity potential of major building material production stage using life cycle assessment. For this purpose, the theoretical consideration of the life cycle assessment and environmental impact category was performed and the direction of the study was set up. That is, the major material in the global warming potential view was drawn against the building and life cycle inventory database was selected. The classification was performed about 17 kinds of substance and impact index, such as human toxicity potential, that it specifies in CML2001. The environmental impact of analysis human toxicity potential for the building material production stage was calculated through the characterization. Meanwhile, the environmental impact of building material in the same category was analyze based on the characterization impact which was calculated in this study. In this study, establishment of environmental impact coefficients of major building material by complying with ISO 14040. Through this, it is believed to effectively support the decisions of stakeholders to improve the environmental performance of buildings and provide a basis for voluntary participation of architects in environment consideration activities.

Keywords: human toxicity potential, major building material, life cycle assessment, production stage

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Genesis Julyus T. Agcaoili, Esperanza C. Cabrera

Abstract:

Thirty (30) isolates of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) from traditionally-prepared fermented products specifically fermented soy-bean paste, fermented mustard and fermented rice-fish mixture were studied for their in vitro antimicrobial and cytotoxic activities. Seventeen (17) isolates were identified as Lactobacillus plantarum, while 13 isolates were identified as Enterococcus spp using 16s rDNA sequences. Disc diffusion method was used to determine the antibacterial activity of LAB against Staphylococcus aureus (ATCC 25923) and Escherichia coli (ATCC 25922), while the modified agar overlay method was used to determine the antifungal activity of LAB isolates on the yeast Candida albicans, and the dermatophytes Microsporum gypseum, Trichophyton rubrum and Epidermophyton floccosum. The filter-sterilized LAB supernatants were evaluated for their cytotoxicity to mammalian colon cancer cell lines (HT-29 and HCT116) and normal human dermal fibrolasts (HDFn) using resazurin assay (PrestoBlueTM). Colchicine was the positive control. No antimicrobial activity was observed against the bacterial test organisms and the yeast Candida albicans. On the other hand, all of the tested LAB strains were fungicidal for all the test dermatophytes. Cytotoxicity index profiles of the supernatants of the 15 randomly picked LABs and negative control (brain heart infussion broth) suggest nontoxicity to the cells when compared to colchicine, whereas all LAB supernatants were found to be cytotoxic to HT-29 and HCT116 colon cancer cell lines. Results provide strong support for the role of the lactic acid bacteria studied in antimicrobial treatment and anticancer therapy.

Keywords: antimicrobial, fermented products, fungicidal activity, lactic acid bacteria, probiotics

Procedia PDF Downloads 236

Authors: Alejandra Ben-Aissa, Martina Moreno, Luciano Sappia, Paul Lacharmoise, Ana Moya

Abstract:

Organ-on-Chip (OoC) stands out as a highly promising approach for drug testing, presenting a cost-effective and ethically superior alternative to conventional in vivo experiments. These cutting-edge devices emerge from the integration of tissue engineering and microfluidic technology, faithfully replicating the physiological conditions of targeted organs. Consequently, they offer a more precise understanding of drug responses without the ethical concerns associated with animal testing. When addressing the limitations of OoC due to conventional and time-consuming techniques, Lab-On-Chip (LoC) emerge as a disruptive technology capable of providing real-time monitoring without compromising sample integrity. This work develops LoC platforms that can be integrated within OoC platforms to monitor essential culture media parameters, including glucose, oxygen, and pH, facilitating the straightforward exchange of sensing units within a dynamic and controlled environment without disrupting cultures. This approach preserves the experimental setup, minimizes the impact on cells, and enables efficient, prolonged measurement. The LoC system is fabricated following the patented methodology protected by EU patent EP4317957A1. One of the key challenges of integrating sensors in a biocompatible, feasible, robust, and scalable manner is addressed through fully printed sensors, ensuring a customized, cost-effective, and scalable solution. With this technique, sensor reliability is enhanced, providing high sensitivity and selectivity for accurate parameter monitoring. In the present study, LoC is validated measuring a complete culture media. The oxygen sensor provided a measurement range from 0 mgO2/L to 6.3 mgO2/L. The pH sensor demonstrated a measurement range spanning 2 pH units to 9.5 pH units. Additionally, the glucose sensor achieved a measurement range from 0 mM to 11 mM. All the measures were performed with the sensors integrated in the LoC. In conclusion, this study showcases the impactful synergy of OoC technology with LoC systems using fully printed sensors, marking a significant step forward in ethical and effective biomedical research, particularly in drug development. This innovation not only meets current demands but also lays the groundwork for future advancements in precision and customization within scientific exploration.

Keywords: organ on chip, lab on chip, real time monitoring, biosensors

Procedia PDF Downloads 13

Authors: Patricia Chinyere Oranefo

Abstract:

This study examined the effect of sustainability accounting disclosure on financial performance of listed Brewery firms in Nigeria. The dearth of empirical evidence and literature on “governance disclosure” as one of the explanatory variables of sustainability accounting reporting were the major motivation for this study. The main objective was to ascertain the effect of sustainability accounting disclosure on financial performance of listed Brewery firms in Nigeria. An ex–post facto research design approach was adopted for the study. The population of this study comprises of five (5) Brewery firms quoted on the floor of the Nigeria exchange group (NSX) and the sample size of four (4) listed firms was drawn using purposive sampling method. Secondary data were carefully sourced from the financial statement/annual reports and sustainability reports from 2012 to 2021 of the Brewery firms quoted on the Nigeria exchange group (NSX). Panel regression analysis by aid of E-views 10.0 software was used to test for statistical significance of the effect of sustainability accounting disclosure on financial performance of listed Brewery firms in Nigeria. The results showed that economic sustainability disclosure indexes do not significantly affect return on asset of listed Brewery firms in Nigeria. The findings further revealed that environmental sustainability disclosure indexes do not significantly affect return on equity of listed Brewery firms in Nigeria. More so, results showed that Social Sustainability disclosure indexes significantly affect Net Profit Margin of listed Brewery firms in Nigeria. Finally, the result established also that governance sustainability disclosure indexes do not significantly affect Earnings per share of listed Brewery firms in Nigeria. Consequent upon the findings, this study recommended among others; that managers of Brewers in Nigeria should improve and sustain full disclosure practices on economic, environmental, social and governance disclosures following the guidelines of the Global Reporting Index (GRI) as they are capable of exerting significant effect on financial performance of firms in Nigeria.

Keywords: sustainability, accounting, disclosure, financial performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 57

Authors: Amritansh Agarwal, Tejaswi Agarwal

Abstract:

Forest ecosystem plays very important role in the global carbon cycle. It stores about 80% of all above ground and 40% of all below ground terrestrial organic carbon. There is much interest in the extent of tropical forests and their rates of deforestation for two reasons: greenhouse gas contributions and the impact of profoundly negative biodiversity. Deforestation has many ecological, social and economic consequences, one of which is the loss of biological diversity. The rapid deployment of remote sensing (RS) satellites and development of RS analysis techniques in the past three decades have provided a reliable, effective, and practical way to characterize terrestrial ecosystem properties. Global estimates of tropical deforestation vary widely and range from 50,000 to 170,000 km2 /yr Recent FAO tropical deforestation estimates for 1990–1995 cite 116,756km2 / yr globally. Remote Sensing can prove to be a very useful tool in monitoring of forests and associated deforestation to a sufficient level of accuracy without the need of physically surveying the forest areas as many of them are physically inaccessible. The methodology for the assessment of forest cover using digital image processing (ERDAS) has been followed. The satellite data for the study was procured from USGS website in the digital format. While procuring the satellite data, care was taken to ensure that the data was cloud and aerosol free by making using of FLAASH atmospheric correction technique. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been used as a numerical indicator of the reduction in ground biomass. NDVI = (near I.R - Red)/ (near I.R + Red). After calculating the NDVI variations and associated mean we have analysed the change in ground biomass. Through this paper we have tried to indicate the rate of deforestation over a given period of time by comparing the forest cover at different time intervals. With the help of remote sensing and GIS techniques it is clearly shows that the total forest cover is continuously degrading and transforming into various land use/land cover category.

Keywords: remote sensing, deforestation, supervised classification, NDVI change detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 400

Authors: Wenyang Wan

Abstract:

The study of urban land use and landscape pattern is the current hotspot in the fields of planning and design, ecology, etc., which is of great significance for the construction of the overall humanistic ecosystem of the city and optimization of the urban spatial structure. Banan District, as the main part of the eastern eco-city planning of Chongqing Municipality, is a high ground for highlighting the ecological characteristics of Chongqing, realizing effective transformation of ecological value, and promoting the integrated development of urban and rural areas. The analytical methods of land use transfer matrix (GIS) and landscape pattern index (Fragstats) were used to study the characteristics and laws of the evolution of land use landscape pattern in Banan District from 2000 to 2020, which provide some reference value for Banan District to alleviate the ecological contradiction of landscape. The results of the study show that ① Banan District is rich in land use types, of which the area of cultivated land will still account for 57.15% of the total area of the landscape until 2020, accounting for an absolute advantage in land use structure of Banan District; ② From 2000 to 2020, land use conversion in Banan District is characterized as Cropland > woodland > grassland > shrubland > built-up land > water bodies > wetlands, with cropland converted to built-up land being the largest; ③ From 2000 to 2020, the landscape elements of Banan District were distributed in a balanced way, and the landscape types were rich and diversified, but due to the influence of human interference, it also presented the characteristics that the shape of the landscape elements tended to be irregular, and the dominant patches were distributed in a scattered manner, and the patches had poor connectivity. It is recommended that in future regional ecological construction, the layout should be rationally optimized, the relationship between landscape components should be coordinated, the connectivity between landscape patches should be strengthened, and the degree of landscape fragmentation should be reduced.

Keywords: land use transfer, landscape pattern evolution, GIS and Fragstats, Banan district

Procedia PDF Downloads 70

Authors: Amalia Ardeljan, Lexi Frankel, Divesh Manjani, Gabriela Santizo, Maximillian Guerra, Omar Rashid

Abstract:

Introduction: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is a widespread infection affecting between 60-70% of people in industrialized countries. CMV has been previously correlated with a higher incidence of Hodgkin Lymphoma compared to noninfected persons. Research regarding prior CMV infection and subsequent lymphoma development is still controversial. With limited evidence, further research is needed in order to understand the relationship between previous CMV infection and subsequent lymphoma development. This study assessed the effect of CMV infection and the incidence of lymphoma afterward. Methods: A retrospective cohort study (2010-2019) was conducted through a Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) compliant national database and conducted using International Classification of Disease (ICD) 9th,10th codes, and Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes. These were used to identify lymphoma diagnosis in a previously CMV infected population. Patients were matched for age range and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). A chi-squared test was used to assess statistical significance. Results: A total number of 14,303 patients was obtained in the CMV infected group as well as in the control population (matched by age range and CCI score). Subsequent lymphoma development was seen at a rate of 11.44% (1,637) in the CMV group and 5.74% (822) in the control group, respectively. The difference was statistically significant by p= 2.2x10-16, odds ratio = 2.696 (95% CI 2.483- 2.927). In an attempt to stratify the population by antiviral medication exposure, the outcomes were limited by the decreased number of members exposed to antiviral medication in the control population. Conclusion: This study shows a statistically significant correlation between prior CMV infection and an increased incidence of lymphoma afterward. Further exploration is needed to identify the potential carcinogenic mechanism of CMV and whether the results are attributed to a confounding bias.

Keywords: cytomegalovirus, lymphoma, cancer, microbiology

Procedia PDF Downloads 218

Authors: Jorge Anibal Restrepo Morales, Sonia Martín Gómez

Abstract:

A model based on a logical framework was developed to quantify SMEs' internationalization capacity. To do so, linguistic variables, such as human talent, infrastructure, innovation strategies, FTAs, marketing strategies, finance, etc. were integrated. It is argued that a company’s management of international markets depends on internal factors, especially capabilities and resources available. This study considers internal factors as the biggest business challenge because they force companies to develop an adequate set of capabilities. At this stage, importance and strategic relevance have to be defined in order to build competitive advantages. A fuzzy inference system is proposed to model the resources, skills, and capabilities that determine the success of internationalization. Data: 157 linguistic variables were used. These variables were defined by international trade entrepreneurs, experts, consultants, and researchers. Using expert judgment, the variables were condensed into18 factors that explain SMEs’ export capacity. The proposed model is applied by means of a case study of the textile and clothing cluster in Medellin, Colombia. In the model implementation, a general index of 28.2 was obtained for internationalization capabilities. The result confirms that the sector’s current capabilities and resources are not sufficient for a successful integration into the international market. The model specifies the factors and variables, which need to be worked on in order to improve export capability. In the case of textile companies, the lack of a continuous recording of information stands out. Likewise, there are very few studies directed towards developing long-term plans, and., there is little consistency in exports criteria. This method emerges as an innovative management tool linked to internal organizational spheres and their different abilities.

Keywords: business strategy, exports, internationalization, fuzzy set methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 293

Authors: Manon Ghislain, Timothée Bonnet, Olivier Gimenez, Olivier Dehorter, Pierre-Yves Henry

Abstract:

Climatic fluctuations affect the demography of animal populations, generating changes in population size, phenology, distribution and community assemblages. However, very few studies have identified the underlying demographic processes. For short-lived species, like common passerine birds, are these changes generated by changes in adult survival or in fecundity and recruitment? This study tests for an effect of annual climatic conditions (spring and winter) on annual, local adult survival at very large spatial (a country, 252 sites), temporal (25 years) and biological (25 species) scales. The Constant Effort Site ringing has allowed the collection of capture - mark - recapture data for 100 000 adult individuals since 1989, over metropolitan France, thus documenting annual, local survival rates of the most common passerine birds. We specifically developed a set of multi-year, multi-species, multi-site Bayesian models describing variations in local survival and recapture probabilities. This method allows for a statistically powerful hierarchical assessment (global versus species-specific) of the effects of climate variables on survival. A major part of between-year variations in survival rate was common to all species (74% of between-year variance), whereas only 26% of temporal variation was species-specific. Although changing spring climate is commonly invoked as a cause of population size fluctuations, spring climatic anomalies (mean precipitation or temperature for March-August) do not impact adult survival: only 1% of between-year variation of species survival is explained by spring climatic anomalies. However, for sedentary birds, winter climatic anomalies (North Atlantic Oscillation) had a significant, quadratic effect on adult survival, birds surviving less during intermediate years than during more extreme years. For migratory birds, we do not detect an effect of winter climatic anomalies (Sahel Rainfall). We will analyze the life history traits (migration, habitat, thermal range) that could explain a different sensitivity of species to winter climate anomalies. Overall, we conclude that changes in population sizes for passerine birds are unlikely to be the consequences of climate-driven mortality (or emigration) in spring but could be induced by other demographic parameters, like fecundity.

Keywords: Bayesian approach, capture-recapture, climate anomaly, constant effort sites scheme, passerine, seasons, survival

Procedia PDF Downloads 301

Authors: Jonathan J. Burson

Abstract:

With the rise of virtually costless, mobile-based trading platforms, stock market trading activity has increased significantly over the past decade, particularly for the millennial generation. This increased stock market attention, combined with the recent market turmoil due to the economic upset caused by COVID-19, make the topics of market-timing and forecasting particularly relevant. While the overall stock market saw an unprecedented, historically-long bull market from March 2009 to February 2020, the end of that bull market reignited a search by investors for a way to reduce risk and increase return. Similar searches for outperformance occurred in the early, and late 2000’s as the Dotcom bubble burst and the Great Recession led to years of negative returns for mean-variance, index investors. Extensive research has been conducted on fundamental analysis, technical analysis, macroeconomic indicators, microeconomic indicators, and other techniques—all using different methodologies and investment periods—in pursuit of higher returns with lower risk. The enormous variety of timeframes, data, and methodologies used by the diverse forecasting methods makes it difficult to compare the outcome of each method directly to other methods. This paper establishes a process to evaluate the market-timing methods in an apples-to-apples manner based on simplicity, performance, and feasibility. Preliminary findings show that certain technical analysis models provide a higher return with lower risk when compared to the buy-and-hold method and to other market-timing strategies. Furthermore, technical analysis models tend to be easier for individual investors both in terms of acquiring the data and in analyzing it, making technical analysis-based market-timing methods the preferred choice for retail investors.

Keywords: buy-and-hold, forecast, market-timing, probit, technical analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 96