Search results for: parametric survival models

Authors: R. K. Dubey

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Bianchi type cosmological models have been studied on the basis of Lyra’s geometry. Exact solution has been obtained by considering a time dependent displacement field for constant deceleration parameter and varying cosmological term of the universe. The physical behavior of the different models has been examined for different cases.

Keywords: Bianchi type-I cosmological model, variable gravitational coupling, cosmological constant term, Lyra's model

Procedia PDF Downloads 331

Authors: Shi-xia Xu, Zai-wen Zhang, Ru-xue Chen, Shan Zhou, Xiang-feng Tang

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Objective: The clinical influence of HLA-DPB1 mismatches on clinical outcome of HSCT is less clear. This is the first meta-analysis to study the HLA-DPB1 matching statues on clinical outcomes after unrelated donor HSCT. Methods: We searched the CIBMTR, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and related databases (1995.01–2017.06) for all relevant articles. Comparative studies were used to investigate the HLA-DPB1 loci mismatches on clinical outcomes after unrelated donor HSCT, such as the disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival, GVHD, relapse, and transplant-related mortality (TRM). We performed meta-analysis using Review Manager 5.2 software and funnel plot to assess the bias. Results: At first, 1246 articles were retrieved, and 18 studies totaling 26368 patients analyzed. Pooled comparisons of studies found that the HLA-DPB1 mismatched group had a lower rate of DFS than the DPB1-matched group, and lower OS in non-T cell depleted transplantation. The DPB1 mismatched group has a higher incidence of aGVHD and more severe ( ≥ III degree) aGvHD, lower rate of relapse and higher TRM. Moreover, compared with 1-antigen mismatch, 2-antigen mismatched led to a higher risk of TRM and lower relapse rate. Conclusions: This meta-analysis indicated HLA-DPB1 has important influence on survival and transplant-related complications during unrelated donor HSCT and HLA-DPB1 donor selection strategies have been proposed based on a personalized algorithm.

Keywords: human leukocyte antigen, DPB1, transplant, meta-analysis, outcome

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Authors: Suphat Rittirat, Sutha Klaocheed, Somporn Prasertsongskun, Kanchit Thammasiri

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Protocorms of Phalaenopsis cornu-cervi (Breda) Blume & Rchb. f. were successfully cryopreserved using a vitrification method. Two-month old protocorms at GI 4 stage were precultured in liquid MS medium supplemented with different concentrations of sucrose (0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9 and 1.2 M) at 25±1°C for 2 days on an orbital shaker at 110 rpm. The protocorms were treated with loading solution (2 M glycerol plus 0.4 M sucrose) for 20 minutes at 25±1°C. Then, the protocorms were sufficiently dehydrated with vitrification solution (plant vitrification solution 2, PVS2) for various times (0, 30, 60, 90 and 120 minutes) at 25±1°C and stored in liquid nitrogen for 1 day. After rapid thawing in water bath at 40°C for 2 minutes, the explants were washed by MS liquid medium containing 0.5 ml of 1.2 M sucrose for 20 minutes. The results shown that the protocorms were precultured in liquid MS medium containing 0.5 M sucrose and dehydrated with vitrification solution for 60 minutes had the highest survival percentage of protocorm at 31±1.0 % as measured by Evan’s blue. No survival rate of protocorms was found without vitrification treatments.

Keywords: protocorms, cryopreservation, Phalaenopsis cornu-cervi, vitrification

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Authors: Hrachuhi Galstyan, Lucian Sfîcă, Pavel Ichim

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The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal and spatial variability of thermal conditions in the Republic of Armenia. The paper describes annual fluctuations in air temperature. Research has been focused on case study region of Armenia and surrounding areas, where long–term measurements and observations of weather conditions have been performed within the National Meteorological Service of Armenia and its surrounding areas. The study contains yearly air temperature data recorded between 1961-2012. Mann-Kendal test and the autocorrelation function were applied to detect the change trend of annual mean temperature, as well as other parametric and non-parametric tests searching to find the presence of some breaks in the long term evolution of temperature. The analysis of all records reveals a tendency mostly towards warmer years, with increased temperatures especially in valleys and inner basins. The maximum temperature increase is up to 1,5 °C. Negative results have not been observed in Armenia. The patterns of temperature change have been observed since the 1990’s over much of the Armenian territory. The climate in Armenia was influenced by global change in the last 2 decades, as results from the methods employed within the study.

Keywords: air temperature, long-term variability, trend, climate change

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Authors: Bale Baidi Blaise, Gilles Marckmann, Liman Kaoye, Talaka Dya, Moustapha Bachirou, Gambo Betchewe, Tibi Beda

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This work highlights the capabilities of particles swarm optimization (PSO) method to identify parameters of hyperelastic models. The study compares this method with Genetic Algorithm (GA) method, Least Squares (LS) method, Pattern Search Algorithm (PSA) method, Beda-Chevalier (BC) method and the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) method. Four classic hyperelastic models are used to test the different methods through parameters identification. Then, the study compares the ability of these models to reproduce experimental Treloar data in simple tension, biaxial tension and pure shear.

Keywords: particle swarm optimization, identification, hyperelastic, model

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Authors: Adeep Hande, Shubham Agarwal

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This paper presents a study on identifying sexism in online texts using various state-of-the-art deep learning models based on BERT. We experimented with different feature sets and model architectures and evaluated their performance using precision, recall, F1 score, and accuracy metrics. We also explored the use of pseudolabeling technique to improve model performance. Our experiments show that the best-performing models were based on BERT, and their multilingual model achieved an F1 score of 0.83. Furthermore, the use of pseudolabeling significantly improved the performance of the BERT-based models, with the best results achieved using the pseudolabeling technique. Our findings suggest that BERT-based models with pseudolabeling hold great promise for identifying sexism in online texts with high accuracy.

Keywords: large language models, semi-supervised learning, sexism detection, data sparsity

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Authors: Tejush Badal, Sanaa Alwidian

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Class diagrams are useful tools within the Unified Modelling Language (UML) to model and visualize the relationships between, and properties of objects within a system. As a system evolves over time and space (e.g., products), a series of models with several commonalities and variabilities create what is known as a model family. In circumstances where there are several versions of a model, examining each model individually, becomes expensive in terms of computation resources. To avoid performing redundant operations, this paper proposes an approach for representing a family of class diagrams into Union Models to represent model families using a single generic model. The paper aims to analyze and reason about a family of class diagrams using union models as opposed to individual analysis of each member model in the family. The union algorithm provides a holistic view of the model family, where the latter cannot be otherwise obtained from an individual analysis approach, this in turn, enhances the analysis performed in terms of speeding up the time needed to analyze a family of models together as opposed to analyzing individual models, one model at a time.

Keywords: analysis, class diagram, model family, unified modeling language, union model

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Authors: Rasikh Tariq, Fatima Z. Benarab

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Evaporative coolers has a minimum potential to reach the wet-bulb temperature of intake air which is not enough to handle a large cooling load; therefore, it is not a feasible option to overcome cooling requirement of a building. The invention of Maisotsenko (M) cycle has led evaporative cooling technology to reach the sub-wet-bulb temperature of the intake air; therefore, it brings an innovation in evaporative cooling techniques. In this work, we developed a mathematical model of the Maisotsenko based air cooler by applying energy and mass balance laws on different air channels. The governing ordinary differential equations are discretized and simulated on MATLAB. The temperature and the humidity plots are shown in the simulation results. A parametric study is conducted by varying working air inlet conditions (temperature and humidity), inlet air velocity, geometric parameters and water temperature. The influence of these aforementioned parameters on the cooling effectiveness of the HMX is reported.  Results have shown that the effectiveness of the M-Cycle is increased by increasing the ambient temperature and decreasing absolute humidity. An air velocity of 0.5 m/sec and a channel height of 6-8mm is recommended.

Keywords: HMX, maisotsenko cycle, mathematical modeling, numerical simulation, parametric study

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Authors: James Alberto Ortega Morales, Nelson Andrés Martínez Marín

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The bulding industry is one of the most important sectors all around the world in terms of contribution to index like GDP and labor. On the other hand, it is a major contributor to Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and waste generation contributing to global warming. In this sense, it is necessary to establish sustainable practices both from the strategic point of view to the operations point of view as well in all business and industries. Business models don’t scape to this reality attending it´s mediator role between strategy and operations. Business models can turn from the traditional practices searching economic benefits to sustainable bussines models that generate both economic value and value for society and the environment. Recent advances in the analysis of sustainable business models find different classifications that allow finding potential triple bottom line (economic, social and environmental) solutions applicable in every business sector. Into the metioned Advances have been identified, 11 groups and 45 patterns of sustainable business models have been identified; such patterns can be found either in the business models as a whole or found concurrently in their components. This article presents the analysis of a case study, seeking to identify the components and elements that are part of it, using the ECO CANVAS conceptual model. The case study allows showing the concurrent existence of different patterns of business models for sustainability empirically, serving as an example and inspiration for other Latin American companies interested in integrating sustainability into their new and existing business models.

Keywords: sustainable business models, business sustainability, business model patterns, case study, construction industry

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Authors: Nop Sopipan

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In this paper, we forecast the volatility of Baht/USDs using Markov Regime Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) models. These models allow volatility to have different dynamics according to unobserved regime variables. The main purpose of this paper is to find out whether MRS-GARCH models are an improvement on the GARCH type models in terms of modeling and forecasting Baht/USD volatility. The MRS-GARCH is the best performance model for Baht/USD volatility in short term but the GARCH model is best perform for long term.

Keywords: volatility, Markov Regime Switching, forecasting, Baht/USD

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Authors: Hsu Yi-Chia, Hoy June-Hao

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FDM (Fused Deposition Modeling) is a rapid proofing method without mold, however, high material and time costs have always been a major disadvantage. Wire-printing is the next generation technology that can more flexible, and also easier to apply on a 3D printer and robotic arms printing. It can create its own construction methods. The research is mainly divided into three parts. The first is about the method of parameterizing the generated paths and the conversion of g-code to the wire-printing. The second is about material attempts and the application of effects. Third, is about the improvement of the operation of mechanical equipment and the design of robotic tool-head. The purpose of this study is to develop a new wire-print method that can efficiently generate line segments and paths in three- dimensions space. The parametric modeling software transforms the digital model into a 3D printer or robotic arms g-code, this article uses thermoplastics/ clay/composites materials for testing. The combination of materials and wire-print process makes architects and designers have the ability to research and develop works and construction in the future.

Keywords: parametric software, wire print, robotic arms fabrication, composite filament additive manufacturing

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Authors: Ibrahim M. Mehedi, Uzair Ansari, Ubaid M. Al-Saggaf, Abdulrahman H. Bajodah

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This paper presents a methodology for balancing a rotary inverted pendulum system using Robust Generalized Dynamic Inversion (RGDI) under influence of parametric variations and external disturbances. In GDI control, dynamic constraints are formulated in the form of asymptotically stable differential equation which encapsulates the control objectives. The constraint differential equations are based on the deviation function of the angular position and its rates from their reference values. The constraint dynamics are inverted using Moore-Penrose Generalized Inverse (MPGI) to realize the control expression. The GDI singularity problem is addressed by augmenting a dynamic scale factor in the interpretation of MPGI which guarantee asymptotically stable position tracking. An additional term based on Sliding Mode Control is appended within GDI control to make it robust against parametric variations, disturbances and tracking performance deterioration due to generalized inversion scaling. The stability of the closed loop system is ensured by using positive definite Lyapunov energy function that guarantees semi-global practically stable position tracking. Numerical simulations are conducted on the dynamic model of rotary inverted pendulum system to analyze the efficiency of proposed RGDI control law. The comparative study is also presented, in which the performance of RGDI control is compared with Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) and is verified through experiments. Numerical simulations and real-time experiments demonstrate better tracking performance abilities and robustness features of RGDI control in the presence of parametric uncertainties and disturbances.

Keywords: generalized dynamic inversion, lyapunov stability, rotary inverted pendulum system, sliding mode control

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Authors: M. R. Aher, R. B. Laware, G. S. Asane, B. S. Kuchekar

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Objective: Studies have shown that a new combination therapy with Artemisinin derivatives and curcumin is unique, with potential advantages over known ACTs. In present study an attempt was made to prepare microparticulate drug delivery system of Curcumin-Zn complex and evaluate it in combination with artemether for antimalarial activity. Material and method: Curcumin Zn complex was prepared and encapsulated using sodium alginate. Microparticles thus obtained are further coated with various enteric polymers at different coating thickness to control the release. Microparticles are evaluated for encapsulation efficiency, drug loading and in vitro drug release. Roentgenographic Studies was conducted in rabbits with BaSO 4 tagged formulation. Optimized formulation was screened for antimalarial activity using P. berghei-infected mice survival test and % paracetemia inhibition, alone (three oral dose of 5mg/day) and in combination with arthemether (i.p. 500, 1000 and 1500µg). Curcumin-Zn(II) was estimated in serum after oral administration to rats by using spectroflurometry. Result: Microparticles coated with Cellulose acetate phthalate showed most satisfactory and controlled release with 479 min time for 60% drug release. X-ray images taken at different time intervals confirmed the retention of formulation in GI tract. Estimation of curcumin in serum by spectroflurometry showed that drug concentration is maintained in the blood for longer time with tmax of 6 hours. The survival time (40 days post treatment) of mice infected with P. berghei was compared to survival after treatment with either Curcumin-Zn(II) microparticles artemether combination, curcumin-Zn complex and artemether. Oral administration of Curcumin-Zn(II)-artemether prolonged the survival of P.berghei-infected mice. All the mice treated with Curcumin-Zn(II) microparticles (5mg/day) artemether (1000µg) survived for more than 40 days and recovered with no detectable parasitemia. Administration of Curcumin-Zn(II) artemether combination reduced the parasitemia in mice by more than 90% compared to that in control mice for the first 3 days after treatment. Conclusion: Antimalarial activity of the curcumin Zn-artemether combination was more pronounced than mono therapy. A single dose of 1000µg of artemether in curcumin-Zn combination gives complete protection in P. berghei-infected mice. This may reduce the chances of drug resistance in malaria management.

Keywords: formulation, microparticulate drug delivery, antimalarial, pharmaceutics

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Authors: Muhammmad Fawad

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The bridge construction industry has been revolutionized by the applications of Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR). In this article, the author has focused on the field applications of digital technologies in structural, especially in bridge engineering. This research analyzed the use of VR/AR for the assessment of bridge concepts. For this purpose, the author has used Cyber-Physical Devices, i.e., Oculus Quest (OQ) for the implementation of VR, Trimble Microsoft HoloLens (THL), and Trimble Site Vision (TSV) for the implementation of AR/MR by visualizing the models of bridge planned to be constructed in Poland. The visualization of the models in Extended Reality (XR) is based on the development of BIM models of the bridge, which are further uploaded to the platforms required to implement these models in XR. This research helped to implement the models in MR so a bridge with a 1:1 scale at the exact location was placed, and authorities were presented with the possibility to visualize the exact scale and location of the bridge before its construction.

Keywords: augmented reality, virtual reality, HoloLens, BIM, bridges

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Authors: Bernur Acikgoz

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of public spending on economic growth and examine the sources of economic growth in developed countries since the 1990s. This paper analyses whether public spending effect on economic growth based on Cobb-Douglas Production Function with the two econometric models with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Dynamic Fixed Effect (DFE) for 21 developed countries (high-income OECD countries), over the period 1990-2013. Our models results are parallel to each other and the models support that public spending has an important role for economic growth. This result is accurate with theories and previous empirical studies.

Keywords: public spending, economic growth, panel data, ARDL models

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Authors: Ormal Lishi

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This research presents a computationally efficient probabilistic method to assess the performance of compartmentation walls with similar Fire Resistance Levels (FRL) but varying complexity. Specifically, a masonry brick wall and a light-steel framed (LSF) wall with comparable insulation performance are analyzed. A Monte Carlo technique, employing Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), is utilized to quantify uncertainties and determine the probability of failure for both walls exposed to standard and parametric fires, following ISO 834 and Eurocodes guidelines. Results show that the probability of failure for the brick masonry wall under standard fire exposure is estimated at 4.8%, while the LSF wall is 7.6%. These probabilities decrease to 0.4% and 4.8%, respectively, when subjected to parametric fires. Notably, the complex LSF wall exhibits higher variability in predicting time to failure for specific criteria compared to the less complex brick wall, especially at higher temperatures. The proposed approach highlights the need for Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to accurately evaluate the reliability and safety levels of complex designs.

Keywords: design complexity, probability of failure, monte carlo analysis, compartmentation walls, insulation

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Authors: Mahshid Hatamzad, Geanette Polanco

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Improving the performance of Winter Road Maintenance (WRM) can increase the traffic safety and reduce the cost as well as environmental impacts. This study evaluates the efficiency of WRM technique, named salting, in the Arctic area by using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which is a non-parametric linear method to measure the efficiencies of decision-making units (DMUs) based on handling multiple inputs and multiple outputs at the same time that their associated weights are not known. Here, roads are considered as DMUs for which the efficiency must be determined. The three input variables considered are traffic flow, road area and WRM cost. In addition, the two output variables included are level of safety in the roads and environment impacts resulted from WRM, which is also considered as an uncontrollable factor in the second scenario. The results show the performance of DMUs from the most efficient WRM to the inefficient/least efficient one and this information provides decision makers with technical support and the required suggested improvements for inefficient WRM, in order to achieve a cost-effective WRM and a safe road transportation during wintertime in the Arctic areas.

Keywords: environmental impacts, DEA, risk and safety, WRM

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Authors: A. Bere, H. G. Sithuba, K. Kyei, C. Sigauke

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We employ a discrete logit survival model to investigate the risk factors for early alcohol intake among students at two tertiary institutions in Thohoyandou, South Africa. Data were collected from a sample of 744 students using a self-administered questionnaire. Significant covariates were arrived at through a regularization algorithm implemented using the glmmLasso package. The tuning parameter was determined using a five-fold cross-validation algorithm. The baseline hazard was modelled as a smooth function of time through the use of spline functions. The results show that the hazard of initial alcohol intake peaks at the age of about 16 years and that at any given time, being of a male gender, prior use of other drugs, having drinking peers, having experienced negative life events and physical abuse are associated with a higher risk of alcohol intake debut.

Keywords: cross-validation, discrete hazard model, LASSO, smooth baseline hazard

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Authors: Fakhrosadat Sajjadian

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In the USA, about 5% of women diagnosed with breast cancer annually are affected by Inflammatory Breast Cancer (IBC), which is a highly aggressive type of Locally Advanced Breast Cancer (LABC). It is a type of LABC that is clinically and pathologically different, known for its rapid growth, invasiveness, and ability to promote the growth of blood vessels. Almost all women are found to have lymph nodes affected upon diagnosis, while around 36% show obvious distant metastases. Even with the latest improvements in multimodality therapies, the outlook for patients with IBC remains bleak, as the average disease-free survival time is less than 2.5 years. Recent research on the genetic factors responsible for the IBC phenotype has resulted in the discovery of genes that play a role in the advancement of this illness. The development of primary human cell lines and animal models has assisted in this research. These advancements offer new possibilities for future actions in identifying and treating IBC.

Keywords: breast cancer, inflammation, diagnosis, IBC, LABC

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Authors: Takeshi Takemoto, Naoya Suzuki, Naohisa Takagaki, Satoru Komori, Masako Terui, George Truscott

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Drag coefficient is an important parameter in order to correctly estimate the air-sea momentum flux. However, The parameterization of the drag coefficient hasn’t been established due to the variation in the field data. Instead, a number of drag coefficient model formulae have been proposed, even though almost all these models haven’t discussed the extreme wind speed range. With regards to such models, it is unclear how the drag coefficient changes in the extreme wind speed range as the wind speed increased. In this study, we investigated the effect of the drag coefficient models concerning the air-sea momentum flux in the extreme wind range on a global scale, comparing two different drag coefficient models. Interestingly, one model didn’t discuss the extreme wind speed range while the other model considered it. We found that the difference of the models in the annual global air-sea momentum flux was small because the occurrence frequency of strong wind was approximately 1% with a wind speed of 20m/s or more. However, we also discovered that the difference of the models was shown in the middle latitude where the annual mean air-sea momentum flux was large and the occurrence frequency of strong wind was high. In addition, the estimated data showed that the difference of the models in the drag coefficient was large in the extreme wind speed range and that the largest difference became 23% with a wind speed of 35m/s or more. These results clearly show that the difference of the two models concerning the drag coefficient has a significant impact on the estimation of a regional air-sea momentum flux in an extreme wind speed range such as that seen in a tropical cyclone environment. Furthermore, we estimated each air-sea momentum flux using several kinds of drag coefficient models. We will also provide data from an observation tower and result from CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) concerning the influence of wind flow at and around the place.

Keywords: air-sea interaction, drag coefficient, air-sea momentum flux, CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics)

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Authors: Josip Visković, Josip Arnerić, Ante Rozga

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Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modelling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.

Keywords: central and east European countries, financial crisis, Markov switching GARCH model, transition probabilities

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Authors: Tahmidul Islam

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Propensity Score Matching (PSM) technique has been widely used for estimating causal effect of treatment in observational studies. One major step of implementing PSM is estimating the propensity score (PS). Logistic regression model with additive linear terms of covariates is most used technique in many studies. Logistics regression model is also used with cubic splines for retaining flexibility in the model. However, choosing the functional form of the logistic regression model has been a question since the effectiveness of PSM depends on how accurately the PS been estimated. In many situations, the linearity assumption of linear logistic regression may not hold and non-linear relation between the logit and the covariates may be appropriate. One can estimate PS using machine learning techniques such as random forest, neural network etc for more accuracy in non-linear situation. In this study, an attempt has been made to compare the efficacy of Generalized Additive Model (GAM) in various linear and non-linear settings and compare its performance with usual logistic regression. GAM is a non-parametric technique where functional form of the covariates can be unspecified and a flexible regression model can be fitted. In this study various simple and complex models have been considered for treatment under several situations (small/large sample, low/high number of treatment units) and examined which method leads to more covariate balance in the matched dataset. It is found that logistic regression model is impressively robust against inclusion quadratic and interaction terms and reduces mean difference in treatment and control set equally efficiently as GAM does. GAM provided no significantly better covariate balance than logistic regression in both simple and complex models. The analysis also suggests that larger proportion of controls than treatment units leads to better balance for both of the methods.

Keywords: accuracy, covariate balances, generalized additive model, logistic regression, non-linearity, propensity score matching

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Authors: Nagini Sabbineni, Rajini T. V. Kanth, B. V. Kiranmayee

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India’s economy primarily depends on agriculture yield growth and their allied agro industry products. The agriculture yield prediction is the toughest task for agricultural departments across the globe. The agriculture yield depends on various factors. Particularly countries like India, majority of agriculture growth depends on rain water, which is highly unpredictable. Agriculture growth depends on different parameters, namely Water, Nitrogen, Weather, Soil characteristics, Crop rotation, Soil moisture, Surface temperature and Rain water etc. In our paper, lot of Explorative Data Analysis is done and various predictive models were designed. Further various regression models like Linear, Multiple Linear, Non-linear models are tested for the effective prediction or the forecast of the agriculture yield for various crops in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana states.

Keywords: agriculture yield growth, agriculture yield prediction, explorative data analysis, predictive models, regression models

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Authors: Ali S. Gargoum

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Graphical modeling plays an important role in providing efficient probability calculations in high dimensional problems (computational efficiency). In this paper, we address one of such problems where we discuss fragmenting puff models and some distributional assumptions concerning models for the instantaneous, emission readings and for the fragmenting process. A graphical representation in terms of a junction tree of the conditional probability breakdown of puffs and puff fragments is proposed.

Keywords: graphical models, influence diagrams, junction trees, Bayesian nets

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Authors: Jiří F. Urbánek, Alena Oulehlová, Hana Malachová, Jiří J. Urbánek Jr.

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Crisis situations investigation and modelling are introduced and made within the complex system of energetic critical infrastructure, operating on peril´s environments. Every crisis situations and perils has an origin in the emergency/ crisis event occurrence and they need critical/ crisis interfaces assessment. Here, the emergency events can be expected - then crisis scenarios can be pre-prepared by pertinent organizational crisis management authorities towards their coping; or it may be unexpected - without pre-prepared scenario of event. But the both need operational coping by means of crisis management as well. The operation, forms, characteristics, behaviour and utilization of crisis management have various qualities, depending on real critical infrastructure organization perils, and prevention training processes. An aim is always - better security and continuity of the organization, which successful obtainment needs to find and investigate critical/ crisis zones and functions in critical infrastructure organization models, operating in pertinent perils environment. Our DYVELOP (Dynamic Vector Logistics of Processes) method is disposables for it. Here, it is necessary to derive and create identification algorithm of critical/ crisis interfaces. The locations of critical/ crisis interfaces are the flags of crisis situation in organization of critical infrastructure models. Then, the model of crisis situation will be displayed at real organization of Czech energetic crisis infrastructure subject in real peril environment. These efficient measures are necessary for the infrastructure protection. They will be derived for peril mitigation, crisis situation coping and for environmentally friendly organization survival, continuity and its sustainable development advanced possibilities.

Keywords: algorithms, energetic infrastructure complex system, modelling, peril´s environment

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Authors: Sowntharya L.

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Aerodynamics is the most important factor when it comes to resistive forces such as lift, drag and side forces acting on the vehicle. In passenger vehicles, reducing the drag will not only unlock the door for higher achievable speed but will also reduce the fuel consumption of the vehicle. Generally, tyre contributes significantly to the overall aerodynamics of the vehicle. Hence, understanding the air-flow behaviour around the tyre is vital to optimize the aerodynamic performance in the early stage of design process. Nowadays, aerodynamic simulation employing Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is gaining more importance as it reduces the number of physical wind-tunnel experiments during vehicle development process. This research develops a methodology to predict aerodynamic drag of a standalone tyre using Numerical CFD Solver and to validate the same using a wind tunnel experiment. A parametric study was carried out on different tread pattern tyres such as slick, circumferential groove & patterned tyre in stationary and rotating boundary conditions. In order to represent wheel rotation contact with the ground, moving reference frame (MRF) approach was used in this study. Aerodynamic parameters such as drag lift & air flow behaviour around the tire were simulated and compared with experimental results.

Keywords: aerodynamics, CFD, drag, MRF, wind-tunnel

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Authors: Valdir Moura, FranciléIa De Oliveira E. Silva, Erivelto Mercante, Ranieli Dos Anjos De Souza, Jerry Adriani Johann

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Several colonization projects were implemented in the Brazilian Legal Amazon in the 1970s and 1980s. Among all of these colonization projects, the most prominent were those with the Fishbone and Topographic models. Within this scope, the projects of settlements known as Anari and Machadinho were created, which stood out because they are contiguous areas with different models and structure of occupation and colonization. The main objective of this work was to evaluate the dynamics of Land-Use and Land-Cover (LULC) in two different colonization models, implanted in the State of Rondonia in the 1980s. The Fishbone and Topographic models were implanted in the Anari and Machadinho settlements respectively. The understanding of these two forms of occupation will help in future colonization programs of the Brazilian Legal Amazon. These settlements are contiguous areas with different occupancy structures. A 32-year Landsat time series (1984-2016) was used to evaluate the rates and trends in the LULC process in the different colonization models. In the different occupation models analyzed, the results showed a rapid loss of primary and secondary forests (deforestation), mainly due to the dynamics of use, established by the Agriculture/Pasture (A/P) relation and, with heavy dependence due to road construction.

Keywords: land-cover, deforestation, rate fragments, remote sensing, secondary succession

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Authors: Raquel Zydeck, Karina Azzolin, Luis Kosteski, Alisson Milani

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This work presents numerical models in plane deformations (2D), using the Discrete Element Method formedbybars (LDEM) andtheFiniteElementMethod (FEM), in structuralmasonrywallswith horizontal chasesof 20%, 30%, and 50% deep, located in the central part and 1/3 oftheupperpartofthewall, withcenteredandeccentricloading. Differentcombinationsofboundaryconditionsandinteractionsbetweenthemethodswerestudied.

Keywords: chases in structural masonry walls, discrete element method formed by bars, finite element method, numerical models, boundary condition

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Authors: Nurudeen O. Lasisi, Sirajo Abdulrahman, Abdulkareem A. Ibrahim

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Newcastle disease is an infection of domestic poultry and other bird species with the virulent Newcastle disease virus (NDV). In this paper, we study the dynamics of the modeling of the Newcastle disease virus (NDV) using a novel quarantine-adjusted incidence. The comparison of Vaccination, linear incident rate and novel quarantine-adjusted incident rate in the models are discussed. The dynamics of the models yield disease-free and endemic equilibrium states.The effective reproduction numbers of the models are computed in order to measure the relative impact of an individual bird or combined intervention for effective disease control. We showed the local and global stability of endemic equilibrium states of the models and we found that the stability of endemic equilibrium states of models are globally asymptotically stable if the effective reproduction numbers of the models equations are greater than a unit.

Keywords: effective reproduction number, Endemic state, Mathematical model, Newcastle disease virus, novel quarantine-adjusted incidence, stability analysis

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Authors: Shin Yoneda, Mikiya Kato, Kosuke Murate, Kodo Kawase

Abstract:

In recent years, there have been numerous attempts to smuggle narcotic drugs and chemicals by concealing them in international mail. Combatting this requires a non-destructive technique that can identify such illicit substances in mail. Terahertz (THz) waves can pass through a wide variety of materials, and many chemicals show specific frequency-dependent absorption, known as a spectral fingerprint, in the THz range. Therefore, it is reasonable to investigate non-destructive mail inspection techniques that use THz waves. For this reason, in this work, we tried to identify reagents under high attenuation shielding materials using injection-seeded THz-wave parametric generator (is-TPG). Our THz spectroscopic imaging system using is-TPG consisted of two non-linear crystals for emission and detection of THz waves. A micro-chip Nd:YAG laser and a continuous wave tunable external cavity diode laser were used as the pump and seed source, respectively. The pump beam and seed beam were injected to the LiNbO₃ crystal satisfying the noncollinear phase matching condition in order to generate high power THz-wave. The emitted THz wave was irradiated to the sample which was raster scanned by the x-z stage while changing the frequencies, and we obtained multispectral images. Then the transmitted THz wave was focused onto another crystal for detection and up-converted to the near infrared detection beam based on nonlinear optical parametric effects, wherein the detection beam intensity was measured using an infrared pyroelectric detector. It was difficult to identify reagents in a cardboard box because of high noise levels. In this work, we introduce improvements for noise reduction and image clarification, and the intensity of the near infrared detection beam was converted correctly to the intensity of the THz wave. A Gaussian spatial filter is also introduced for a clearer THz image. Through these improvements, we succeeded in identification of reagents hidden in a 42-mm thick cardboard box filled with several obstacles, which attenuate 56 dB at 1.3 THz, by improving analysis methods. Using this system, THz spectroscopic imaging was possible for saccharides and may also be applied to cases where illicit drugs are hidden in the box, and multiple reagents are mixed together. Moreover, THz spectroscopic imaging can be achieved through even thicker obstacles by introducing an NIR detector with higher sensitivity.

Keywords: nondestructive inspection, principal component analysis, terahertz parametric source, THz spectroscopic imaging

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