Search results for: climate extreme

Authors: Onu Theresa Chinyere

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The study evaluates the perceived effect of climate change on nutritional status of women in Nigeria. Five research questions and two hypotheses were formulated to guide the study. The study adopted a survey and experimental study research design. One thousand two hundred and fifty one (1,250) respondents were selected from different State in Nigeria using multistage sampling technique. The instruments used to collect data were questionnaire and personal interview on socio economic characteristics of respondents, while Anthropometric data (height and weight) were also used. The data was analyzed using t-test statistic, decided at 50% level of significance. The study found that most states in Nigeria experience high winds, warmer and frequent hot days and night over most land areas, droughts and tides during climate change events. The respondent unanimously agree that climate change causes reduction in food yields, decline in food availability/supply, negatively affecting soil quality, carbon fertilization, decreases flexibilities in technology choices to strengthen food production. The Anthropometric analysis shows that out of 1250 women sampled, 560 (44.8%) maintain normal weight, while 405 (32.40%) women were found to be underweight, since their body mass index is less that 18.5. There were few cases of obesity among the surveyed women since only 80 out of 1250 which represent 6.4% of the women were obese. Bases on the findings, the following recommendations were made-local fertilizer should be encouraged to boost foods yield especially during climate change: women should imbibe the culture of preservation or reservoir that will help in mitigating the effects of climate on food intake and nutritional status, especially during the crisis period, among others.

Keywords: climate change, nutrition anthropometric analysis, obesity culture, environment and women among others

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Authors: Jamal A. Radaideh, A. J. Radaideh

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Being a problem threatening the planet and its ecosystems, the climate change has been considered for a long time as a disturbing topic impacting water resources in Jordan. Jordan is expected for instance to be highly vulnerable to climate change consequences given its unbalanced distribution between water resources availability and existing demands. Thus, action on adaptation to climate impacts is urgently needed to cope with the negative consequences of climate change. Adaptation to global change must include prudent management of treated wastewater as a renewable resource, especially in regions lacking groundwater or where groundwater is already over exploited. This paper highlights the expected negative effects of climate change on the already scarce water sources and to motivate researchers and decision makers to take precautionary measures and find alternatives to keep the level of water supplies at the limits required for different consumption sectors in terms of quantity and quality. The paper will focus on assessing the potential for wastewater recycling as an adaptation measure to cope with water scarcity in Jordan and to consider wastewater as integral part of the national water budget to solve environmental problems. The paper also identified a research topic designed to help the nation progress in making the most appropriate use of the resource, namely for agricultural irrigation. Wastewater is a promising alternative to fill the shortage in water resources, especially due to climate changes, and to preserve the valuable fresh water to give priority to securing drinking water for the population from these resources and at the same time raise the efficiency of the use of available resources. Jordan has more than 36 wastewater treatment plants distributed throughout the country and producing about 386,000 CM/day of reclaimed water. According to the reports of water quality control programs, more than 85 percent of this water is of a quality that is completely identical to the quality suitable for irrigation of field crops and forest trees according to the requirements of Jordanian Standard No. 893/2006.

Keywords: climate change effects on water resources, adaptation on climate change, treated wastewater recycling, arid and semi-arid regions, Jordan

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Authors: Marcus Bellett-Travers

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Different modelling approaches have been used to determine or predict yield of crops in different geographies. Central to the methodologies are the presumption that it is the absolute yield of the crop in a given location that is of the highest priority to those requiring information on crop productivity. Most individuals, companies and organisations within the agri-food sector need to be able to balance the supply of crops with the demand for them. Different modelling approaches have been used to determine and predict crop yield. The growing need to ensure certainty of supply and stability of prices requires an approach that describes the risk in producing a crop. A review of current methodologies to evaluate the risk to food production from changes in the weather and climate is presented.

Keywords: crop production, risk, climate, modelling

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Authors: Innocent Pangapanga-Phiri, Eric Dada Mungatana

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This study estimates the effect of climate-induced rural-urban migrants (RUM) on maize productivity. It uses panel data gathered by the National Statistics Office and the World Bank to understand the effect of RUM on the technical efficiency of maize production in rural Malawi. The study runs the two-stage Tobit regression to isolate the real effect of rural-urban migration on the technical efficiency of maize production. The results show that RUM significantly reduces the technical efficiency of maize production. However, the interaction of RUM and climate-smart agriculture has a positive and significant influence on the technical efficiency of maize production, suggesting the need for re-investing migrants’ remittances in agricultural activities.

Keywords: climate-smart agriculture, farm productivity, rural-urban migration, panel stochastic frontier models, two-stage Tobit regression

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Authors: Heloisa H. Miura, Luiza M. Pallone

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In Brazil, people forced to move due to environmental causes, called 'environmental migrants', have always been neglected by public policies and legislation. Meanwhile, the numbers of climate-induced migration within and to Brazil continues to increase. The operating Immigration Law, implemented in 1980 under the Brazilian military regime, is widely considered to be out of date, once it does not offer legal protection to migrants who do not fit the definition of a refugee and are not allowed to stay regularly in the country. Aiming to reformulate Brazil’s legislation and policies on the matter, a new Migration Bill (PL 2516/2015) is currently being discussed in the Senate and is expected to define a more humanized approach to migration. Although the present draft foresees an expansion of the legal protection to different types of migrants, it still hesitates to include climate-induced displacements in its premises and to establish a migration management strategy. By introducing a human rights-based approach, this paper aims to provide a new multidisciplinary perspective to the protection of environmental migrants in Brazil.

Keywords: environmental migrants, human mobility, climate change, migration policy

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Authors: Anand Malik

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The Himalayas with high tectonic activities poses a great threat to human life and property. Climate change is another reason which triggering extreme events multiple fold effect on high mountain glacial environment, rock falls, landslides, debris flows, flash flood and snow avalanches. One such extreme event of cloud burst along with breach of moraine dammed Chorabri Lake occurred from June 14 to June 17, 2013, triggered flooding of Saraswati and Mandakini rivers in the Kedarnath Valley of Rudraprayag district of Uttrakhand state of India. As a result, huge volume of water with its high velocity created a catastrophe of the century, which resulted into loss of large number of human/animals, pilgrimage, tourism, agriculture and property. Thus a comprehensive assessment of debris flow hazards requires GIS-based modeling using numerical methods. The aim of present study is to focus on analysis and mapping of debris flow movements using geospatial data with flow-r (developed by team at IGAR, University of Lausanne). The model is based on combined probabilistic and energetic algorithms for the assessment of spreading of flow with maximum run out distances. Aster Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with 30m x 30m cell size (resolution) is used as main geospatial data for preparing the run out assessment, while Landsat data is used to analyze land use land cover change in the study area. The results of the study area show that model can be applied with great accuracy as the model is very useful in determining debris flow areas. The results are compared with existing available landslides/debris flow maps. ArcGIS software is used in preparing run out susceptibility maps which can be used in debris flow mitigation and future land use planning.

Keywords: debris flow, geospatial data, GIS based modeling, flow-R

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Authors: Shafiqul Islam, Cordia Chu

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Bangladesh contributes little to global climate change, yet it is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change. Based on semi-structured in-depth interviews and literature review, focusing public spending distribution process, this paper demonstrates how the processes of political economy- enclosure, exclusion, encroachment, and entrenchment hinder the Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) efforts of Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund (BCCTF). Enclosure refers to when CCA projects allocated to less vulnerable areas or expand the roles of influencing actors into the public sphere. Exclusion refers to when CCA projects limit affected people's access to resources or marginalize particular stakeholders in decision-making activities. Encroachment refers to when allocation of CCA projects and selection of location and issues degrade the environmental affect or contribute to other forms of disaster risk. Entrenchment refers to when CCA projects aggravate the disempowerment of common people worsen the concentrations of wealth and income inequality within a community. In the case of Bangladesh, climate change policies implemented under the country’s National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) and Bangladesh Climate Change Strategic Action Plan (BCCSAP) have somehow enabled influential-elites to mobilize and distribute resources through bureaucracies. Exclusionary forms of fund distribution of CCA exist at both the national and local scales. CCA related allocations have encroached through the low land areas development project without consulting local needs. Most severely, CCA related unequal allocations have entrenched social class trapping the backward communities vulnerable to climate related disasters. Planners and practitioners of BCCTF need to take necessary steps to eliminate the potential risks from the processes of enclosure, exclusion, encroachment, and entrenchment happens in project fund allocations.

Keywords: Bangladesh, climate change adaptation, political economy, public fund distribution

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Authors: Olalekan Adekola, Margaret Gatonye, Paul Orina

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The growing demand for farmed fish by underdeveloped and developing countries as a means of contributing positively towards eradication of hunger, food insecurity, and malnutrition for their fast growing populations has implications to the environment. Likewise, climate change poses both an immediate and future threat to local fish production with capture fisheries already experiencing a global decline. This not only raises fundamental questions concerning how aquaculture practices affect the environment, but also how ready are aquaculture farmers to adapt to climate related hazards. This paper assesses existing aquaculture practices and approaches to adapting to climate hazards in Kenya, where aquaculture has grown rapidly since the year 2009. The growth has seen rise in aquaculture set ups mainly along rivers and streams, importation of seed and feed and intensification with possible environmental implications. The aquaculture value chain in the context of climate change and their implication for practice is further investigated, and the strategies necessary for an improved implementation of resilient aquaculture system in Kenya is examined. Data for the study are collected from interviews, questionnaires, two workshops and document analysis. Despite acclaimed nutritional benefit of fish consumption in Kenya, poor management of effluents enriched with nitrogen, phosphorus, organic matter, and suspended solids has implications not just on the ecosystem, goods, and services, but is also potential source of resource-use conflicts especially in downstream communities and operators in the livestock, horticulture, and industrial sectors. The study concluded that aquaculture focuses on future orientation, climate resilient infrastructure, appropriate site selection and invest on biosafety as the key sustainable strategies against climate hazards.

Keywords: aquaculture, resilience, environment, strategies, Kenya

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Authors: Md Rezaul Karim, Farha Taznin

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The purpose of this study was to assess and describe the individual and household characteristics of farmers, to measure the attitude of farmers towards climate adaptation farming practices and to explore the individual and household factors contributing in predicting their attitude towards climate adaptation farming practices. Data were collected through personal interviews using a pre-tested interview schedule. The data collection was done at Biral Upazila under Dinajpur district in Bangladesh from 1st November to 15 December 2018. Besides descriptive statistical parameters, Pearson’s Product Moment Correlation Coefficient (r), multiple regression and step-wise multiple regression analysis were used for the statistical analysis. Findings indicated that the highest proportion (77.6 percent) of the farmers had moderately favorable attitudes, followed by only 11.2 percent with highly favorable attitudes and 11.2 percent with slightly favorable attitudes towards climate adaptation farming practices. According to the computed correlation coefficients (r), among the 10 selected factors, five of them, such as education of household head, farm size, annual household income, organizational participation, and information access by extension services, had a significant relationship with the attitude of farmers towards climate-smart practices. The step-wise multiple regression results showed that two characteristics as education of household head and information access by extension services, contributed 26.2% and 5.1%, respectively, in predicting farmers' attitudes towards climate adaptation farming practices. In addition, more than two-thirds of farmers cited their opinion to the problems in response to ‘price of vermi species is high and it is not easily available’ as 1st ranked problem, followed by ‘lack of information for innovative climate-smart technologies’. This study suggests that policy implications are necessary to promote extension education and information services and overcome the obstacles to climate adaptation farming practices. It further recommends that research study should be conducted in diverse contexts of nationally or globally.

Keywords: factors, attitude, climate adaptation, farming practices, Bangladesh

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Authors: Margaret S. Gumisiriza, Ernest. R. Mbega, Patrick Ndakidemi, Businge K. Edward

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The purpose of the paper was to assess existing literature regarding hydroponics in both the developing and developed countries. Furthermore, relate it to the context of African countries, how they can implement it and benefit from it in the face of climate change, high population growth rates, and reduced food production. Agriculture remains the major economic activity for a number of African countries. It is the source of income for most peasants, and still contributes to the Gross Domestic Product in most of these African countries. Unfortunately, climate change coupled with the increasing rates of population growth; rural-urban migration; and urbanization have led to food insecurity due to a reduction of available land for agriculture. This has further intensified the food security dilemma in Africa, especially in urban areas, where land is already limited. Considering the aforementioned state of affairs, there is an increasing demand for interventions that can help farmers in Africa to cope with climate change and increase food production. This review explores hydroponic farming and how it can be used as a climate-smart farming system in Africa’s rural and urban areas. Specifically, the review focuses on hydroponics, requirements for hydroponic farming and the state of hydroponic farming in LDCs and Developed countries (DCs). From the review, it was observed that African countries especially those that receive a lot of sunlight would highly benefit from the solar-powered hydroponic farming systems. Further, still, this farming system will help African countries cope with the challenges of high population pressure in urban areas and climate change as it qualifies to be an urban farming system.

Keywords: Africa, climate-smart agriculture, solar-powered-hydroponics, urban-farming

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Authors: Rajendra Kumar Isaac, Monisha Isaac

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Climate variability and changes are the emerging challenges for Indian agriculture with the growing population to ensure national food security. A study was conducted to assess the Climatic Change effects in medium to low altitude areas of the Himalayan region causing changes in land use and cereal crop productivity with the various climatic parameters. The rainfall and temperature changes from 1951 to 2013 were studied at four locations of varying altitudes, namely Hardwar, Rudra Prayag, Uttar Kashi and Tehri Garwal. It was observed that there is noticeable increment in temperature on all the four locations. It was surprisingly observed that the mean rainfall intensity of 30 minutes duration has increased at the rate of 0.1 mm/hours since 2000. The study shows that the combined effect of increasing temperature, rainfall, runoff and urbanization at the mid-Himalayan region is causing an increase in various climatic disasters and changes in agriculture patterns. A noticeable change in cropping patterns, crop productivity and land use change was observed. Appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies are necessary to ensure that sustainable and climate-resilient agriculture. Appropriate information is necessary for farmers, as well as planners and decision makers for developing, disseminating and adopting climate-smart technologies.

Keywords: climate variability, agriculture, land use, mitigation strategies

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Authors: Fitih Ademe, Kibebew Kibret, Sheleme Beyene, Mezgebu Getnet, Gashaw Meteke

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Changes in precipitation, temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration are expected to alter agricultural productivity patterns worldwide. The interactive effects of soil moisture and nutrient availability are the two key edaphic factors that determine crop yield and are sensitive to climatic changes. The study assessed the potential impacts of climate change on maize yield and corresponding water productivity and nutrient use efficiency under climate change scenarios for the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia by mid (2041-2070) and end century (2071-2100). Projected impacts were evaluated using climate scenarios generated from four General Circulation Models (GCMs) dynamically downscaled by the Swedish RCA4 Regional Climate Model (RCM) in combination with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5). Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer cropping system model (DSSAT-CSM) was used to simulate yield, water and nutrient use for the study periods. Results indicate that rainfed maize yield might decrease on average by 16.5 and 23% by the 2050s and 2080s, respectively, due to climate change. Water productivity is expected to decline on average by 2.2 and 12% in the CRV by mid and end centuries with respect to the baseline. Nutrient uptake and corresponding nutrient use efficiency (NUE) might also be negatively affected by climate change. Phosphorus uptake probably will decrease in the CRV on average by 14.5 to 18% by 2050s, while N uptake may not change significantly at Melkassa. Nitrogen and P use efficiency indicators showed decreases in the range between 8.5 to 10.5% and between 9.3 to 10.5%, respectively, by 2050s relative to the baseline average. The simulation results further indicated that a combination of increased water availability and optimum nutrient application might increase both water productivity and nutrient use efficiency in the changed climate, which can ensure modest production in the future. Potential options that can improve water availability and nutrient uptake should be identified for the study locations using a crop modeling approach.

Keywords: crop model, climate change scenario, nutrient uptake, nutrient use efficiency, water productivity

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Authors: Dua K. S. Y. Klaas, Monzur A. Imteaz, Ika Sudiayem, Elkan M. E. Klaas, Eldav C. M. Klaas

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Developing tailored management strategies to ensure the sustainability of groundwater resource under climate and demographic changes is critical for tropical karst island, where relatively small watershed and highly porous soil nature make this natural resource highly susceptible and thus very sensitive to those changes. In this study, long-term impacts of climate variability on groundwater recharge and discharge at the Oemau spring, Rote Island, Indonesia were investigated. Following calibration and validation of groundwater model using MODFLOW code, groundwater flow was simulated for period of 2020-2090 under HadCM3 global model climate (GCM) scenarios, using input data of weather variables downscaled by Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). The reported analysis suggests that the sustainability of groundwater resources will be adversely affected by climate change during dry years. The area is projected to variably experience 2.53-22.80% decrease of spring discharge. A subsequent comprehensive set of management strategies as palliative and adaptive efforts was proposed to be implemented by relevant stakeholders to assist the community dealing with water deficit during the dry years. Three main adaptive strategies, namely socio-cultural, technical, and ecological measures, were proposed by incorporating physical and socio-economic characteristics of the area. This study presents a blueprint for assessing groundwater sustainability under climate change scenarios and developing tailored management strategies to cope with adverse impacts of climate change, which may become fundamental necessities across other tropical karst islands in the future.

Keywords: climate change, groundwater, management strategies, tropical karst island, Rote Island, Indonesia

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Authors: Daniyar Seitenov, Nazim Mir-Nasiri

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Optimization of horizontal axis semi-exposed wind turbine has been performed using a shield protection that automatically protects the generator shaft at extreme wind speeds from over speeding, mechanical damage and continues generating electricity during the high wind speed conditions. A semi-exposed to wind generator has been designed and its structure has been described in this paper. The simplified point-force dynamic load model on the blades has been derived for normal and extreme wind conditions with and without shield involvement. Numerical simulation has been conducted at different values of wind speed to study the efficiency of shield application. The obtained results show that the maximum power generated by the wind turbine with shield does not exceed approximately the rated value of the generator, where shield serves as an automatic break for extreme wind speed values of 15 m/sec and above. Meantime the wind turbine without shield produced a power that is much larger than the rated value. The optimized horizontal axis semi-exposed wind turbine with shield protection is suitable for low and medium power generation when installed on the roofs of high rise buildings for harvesting wind energy. Wind shield works automatically with no power consumption. The structure of the generator with the protection, math simulation of kinematics and dynamics of power generation has been described in details in this paper.

Keywords: renewable energy, wind turbine, wind turbine optimization, high wind speed

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Authors: Antonia Harold-Barry, Eugene Dempsey

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Background: The objective is to examine the survival and outcome of infants born under 26 weeks gestation in an Irish tertiary maternity hospital from 2007-2016 and to describe the survival and neurodevelopmental outcomes of these extremely preterm infants. Method: The population is 132 infants born at 23, 24, and 25 weeks in Cork University Maternity Hospital from 2007 to 2016. Ethical approval was granted by the Cork Clinical Research Ethics Committee. Patient details were obtained from the Vermont Oxford and Badger Networks. Survival rates and Bayley scores were calculated to assess neurodevelopmental outcomes. Statistical analysis with SPSS included frequencies, distributions, and comparisons between data from 2007-2011 and 2012-2016. Results: Overall survival rate was 63%. Of the surviving babies, 61% had Bayley scores calculated. Survival stood at 39% for delivery at 23 weeks, 50% at 24 weeks, and 83% at 25 weeks. The 2012 to 2016 cohort has shown further increases in survival, with 50% of babies at 23 weeks, 58% at 24 weeks, and 89% at 25 weeks. Corresponding figures for 2007-2011 are 20%, 39%, and 75%. Gestational age and incidence of periventricular leukomalacia were statistically significant, with a p-value of 0.022. Gestational age and delivery room deaths had a p-value of 0.025, as did gestational age and birth weight. A comparison of the two cohorts (2007-2011 and 2012-2016) with the administration of antenatal steroids showed a statistically significant p-value of 0.044. Conclusion: There is less morbidity and mortality in infants born at 25 than at 23 or 24 weeks. Survival of extremely premature infants has increased significantly over the past ten years. Survival rates with normal neurodevelopmental outcomes are comparable with international standards and reflect positive changes in attitude and practices in neonatal intensive care. This study will inform parents about the potential outcomes of extreme prematurity and policy regarding the management of extreme prematurity.

Keywords: extreme of viability, neurodevelopmental outcome, periventricular leukomalacia, prematurity

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Authors: Fiona Mwaniki

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Climate change is considered a serious threat to sustainable development globally and as one of the greatest ecological, economic and social challenges of our time. The global demand for food is projected to increase by 60% by 2050. Small holder farmers who are vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change are expected to contribute to this projected demand. Effective climate change education and communication is therefore required for smallholder and subsistence farmers’ in order to build communities that are more climate change aware, prepared and resilient. In Kenya radio is the most important and dominant mass communication tool for agricultural extension. This study investigated the potential role of radio in influencing farmers’ understanding and use of climate change information. The broad aims of this study were three-fold. Firstly, to identify Kenyan farmers’ perceptions and responses to the impacts of climate change. Secondly, to develop radio programs that communicate climate change information to Kenyan farmers and thirdly, to evaluate the impact of information disseminated through radio on farmers’ understanding and responses to climate change mitigation and adaptation. This study was conducted within the farming community of Kilifi County, located along the Kenyan coast. Education and communication about climate change was undertaken using radio to make available information understandable to different social and cultural groups. A mixed methods pre-and post-intervention design that provided the opportunity for triangulating results from both quantitative and qualitative data was used. Quantitative and qualitative data was collected simultaneously, where quantitative data was collected through semi structured surveys with 421 farmers’ and qualitative data was derived from 11 focus group interviews, six interviews with key informants and nine climate change experts. The climate change knowledge gaps identified in the initial quantitative and qualitative data were used in developing radio programs. Final quantitative and qualitative data collection and analysis enabled an assessment of the impact of climate change messages aired through radio on the farming community in Kilifi County. Results of this study indicate that 32% of the farmers’ listened to the radio programs and 26% implemented technologies aired on the programs that would help them adapt to climate change. The most adopted technologies were planting drought tolerant crops including indigenous crop varieties, planting trees, water harvesting and use of manure. The proportion of farmers who indicated they knew “a fair amount” about climate change increased significantly (Z= -5.1977, p < 0.001) from 33% (at the pre intervention phase of this study) to 64% (post intervention). However, 68% of the farmers felt they needed “a lot more” information on agriculture interventions (43%), access to financial resources (21%) and the effects of climate change (15%). The challenges farmers’ faced when adopting the interventions included lack of access to financial resources (18%), high cost of adaptation measures (17%), and poor access to water (10%). This study concludes that radio effectively complements other agricultural extension methods and has the potential to engage farmers’ on climate change issues and motivate them to take action.

Keywords: climate change, climate change intervention, farmers, radio

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Authors: Aysegul Salikutluk, Zehra Altinay, Gokmen Dagli, Fahriye Altinay

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The aim of the study is to reveal the performance of special education schools as regards the service quality and management within the school culture. The project management and school climate are the fundamental elements for the quality in organisations. Having strategic plans, activities and funded projects improve service quality and satisfaction for the families who have children with disabilities. The research has qualitative nature, self-reports were used to examine the perceptions of teachers upon project management and school climate for service quality. The results show that special education schools' teachers are aware of essence of school climate and flow of communication for service quality and project management.

Keywords: disability, education, service quality, project management

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Authors: Theodrose Sisay, Kindie Tesfaye, Mengistu Ketema, Nigussie Dechassa, Mezegebu Getnet

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Agriculture is a sector that is very vulnerable to the effects of climate change and contributes to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. By lowering emissions and adjusting to the change, it can also help to reduce climate change. Utilizing Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) technology that can sustainably boost productivity, improve resilience, and lower GHG emissions is crucial. This study sought to identify the CSA technologies used by farmers and assess adoption levels and factors that influence them. In order to gather information from 384 smallholder farmers in the Great Rift Valley (GRV) of Ethiopia, a cross-sectional survey was carried out. Data were analysed using percentage, chi-square test, t-test, and multivariate probit model. Results showed that crop diversification, agroforestry, and integrated soil fertility management were the most widely practiced technologies. The results of the Chi-square and t-tests showed that there are differences and significant and positive connections between adopters and non-adopters based on various attributes. The chi-square and t-test results confirmed that households who were older had higher incomes, greater credit access, knowledge of the climate, better training, better education, larger farms, higher incomes, and more frequent interactions with extension specialists had a positive and significant association with CSA technology adopters. The model result showed that age, sex, and education of the head, farmland size, livestock ownership, income, access to credit, climate information, training, and extension contact influenced the selection of CSA technologies. Therefore, effective action must be taken to remove barriers to the adoption of CSA technologies, and taking these adoption factors into account in policy and practice is anticipated to support smallholder farmers in adapting to climate change while lowering emissions.

Keywords: climate change, climate-smart agriculture, smallholder farmers, multivariate probit model

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Authors: Malay K. Pramanik

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In recent years, climate change has become a major threat and has been widely documented in the geographic distribution of many plant species. However, the impacts of climate change on the distribution of ecologically vulnerable medicinal species remain largely unknown. The identification of a suitable habitat for a species under climate change scenario is a significant step towards the mitigation of biodiversity decline. The study, therefore, aims to predict the impact of current, and future climatic scenarios on the distribution of the threatened Garcinia indica across the northern Western Ghats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. The future projections were made for the year 2050 and 2070 with all Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenario (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) using 56 species occurrence data, and 19 bioclimatic predictors from the BCC-CSM1.1 model of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s (IPCC) 5th assessment. The bioclimatic variables were minimised to a smaller number of variables after a multicollinearity test, and their contributions were assessed using jackknife test. The AUC value of 0.956 ± 0.023 indicates that the model performs with excellent accuracy. The study identified that temperature seasonality (39.5 ± 3.1%), isothermality (19.2 ± 1.6%), and annual precipitation (12.7 ± 1.7%) would be the major influencing variables in the current and future distribution. The model predicted 10.5% (19318.7 sq. km) of the study area as moderately to very highly suitable, while 82.60% (151904 sq. km) of the study area was identified as ‘unsuitable’ or ‘very low suitable’. Our predictions of climate change impact on habitat suitability suggest that there will be a drastic reduction in the suitability by 5.29% and 5.69% under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070, respectively. Finally, the results signify that the model might be an effective tool for biodiversity protection, ecosystem management, and species re-habitation planning under future climate change scenarios.

Keywords: Garcinia Indica, maximum entropy modelling, climate change, MaxEnt, Western Ghats, medicinal plants

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Authors: Mukesh Lal Das, Muthukumar Muthuchamy

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Climate change Adaptation strategy (AS) is a scientific approach to dealing with the impacts of climate change (CC). Efforts are being made to contain the global emission of greenhouse gas within threshold limits, thereby limiting the rise of global temperature to an optimal level. Global Climate change is a spontaneous process; therefore, reversing the damage would take decades. The climate change adaptation strategy recommended by various stakeholders could be a key to resilience for biodiversity. The Indian Government has constituted the panel to synthesize the climate change action report at the federal and state levels. This review scavenged the published literature on the Western Ghats hotspots. And highlight the adaptation strategy recommended by diverse scientific actors to conserve biodiversity. It also reviews the grey literature adopted by state and federal governments and its effectiveness in mitigating the impacts on biodiversity. We have narrowed the scope of interest to the state action report by 6 Indian states such as Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which host Western Ghats global biodiversity hotspot. Western Ghats(WGs) act as the water tower to the peninsular part of India, and its extensive watershed caters to the water demand of the Industry sector, Agriculture and urban community. Conservation of WGs is the key to the prosperity of Peninsular India. The global scientific community suggested more than 600+ Climate change adaptation strategies for the policymakers, stakeholders, and other state actors to take proactive actions. The preliminary analysis of the federal and the state action plan on climate change in the wake of CC indicate inadequacy in motion as per recommended scientific adaptation strategies. Tamil Nadu and Kerala state constitute nine effective adaptation strategies out of the 40+ recommended for Western Ghats conservation. And other four states' adaptation strategies are deficient, confusing and vague. Western Ghats' resilience capacity will soon or might have reached its threshold, and the frequency of severe drought and flash floods might upsurge manifold in the decades to come. The lack of a clear roadmap to climate change adaptation strategies in the federal and state action stirred us to identify the gap and address it by offering a holistic approach to WGs biodiversity conservation.

Keywords: adaptation strategy, biodiversity conservation, climate change, resilience, Western Ghats

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Authors: Mohammed Aman Kassim

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This study explored the attitudes of hotel managers toward climate change adaption and mitigation practices in resort hotels located in Bishoftu town, Ethiopia. Weak resource management in the area causes serious environmental problems. So sustainable way forward is needed for the destination in order to reduce environmental damage. Six resorts were selected out of twelve resort hotels in Bishoftu City by using the systematic sampling method, and a total of fifty-six managers were taken for the study. The data analyzed came from self-administered questionnaires, site observation, and a short face-to-face interview with general managers. The results showed that 99% of hotel managers possess positive attitudes toward climate change adaptation and mitigation practices. But they did not show a high commitment to adopting all adaptation and mitigation practices in their hotel’s actions and day-to-day operation. Key adoption influencing factors identified were: owners' commitment toward sustainability, the applicability of government rules and regulations, and incentives for good achievement. The findings also revealed that the attitudes of resort hotel managers toward climate change adaption and mitigation practices are more significantly influenced by their social factors, such as level of education and age, in this study. The study demonstrated that in order to increase managers' commitment and hotels become green: government led-education and training programs, green certification actions, and application of government environmental regulation are important.

Keywords: climate change, climate change adaptation and mitigation practices, environmental attitude, resort hotels

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Authors: Majid Samiee Zonoozian

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For such important constructions as jacket type platforms, scrupulous attention in analysis, design and calculation processes is needed. The reliability assessment method has been established into an extensively used method to behavior safety calculation of jacket platforms. In the present study, a methodology for the reliability calculation of an offshore jacket platform in contradiction of the extreme wave loading state is available. Therefore, sensitivity analyses are applied to acquire the nonlinear response of jacket-type platforms against extreme waves. The jacket structure is modeled by applying a nonlinear finite-element model with regards to the tubular members' behave. The probability of a member’s failure under extreme wave loading is figured by a finite-element reliability code. The FORM and SORM approaches are applied for the calculation of safety directories and reliability indexes have been detected. A case study for a fixed jacket-type structure positioned in the Persian Gulf is studied by means of the planned method. Furthermore, to define the failure standards, equations suggested by the 21st version of the API RP 2A-WSD for The jacket-type structures’ tubular members designing by applying the mixed axial bending and axial pressure. Consequently, the effect of wave Loades in the reliability index was considered.

Keywords: Jacket-Type structure, reliability, failure probability, tubular members

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Malay K. Pramanik

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Climate change is continuously affecting the ecosystem, species distribution as well as global biodiversity. The assessment of the species potential distribution and the spatial changes under various climate change scenarios is a significant step towards the conservation and mitigation of habitat shifts, and species' loss and vulnerability. In this context, the present study aimed to predict the influence of current and future climate on an ecologically vulnerable medicinal species, Garcinia gummi-gutta, of the southern Western Ghats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling. The future projections were made for the period of 2050 and 2070 with RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenario of 4.5 and 8.5 using 84 species occurrence data, and climatic variables from three different models of Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment. Climatic variables contributions were assessed using jackknife test and AOC value 0.888 indicates the model perform with high accuracy. The major influencing variables will be annual precipitation, precipitation of coldest quarter, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of driest quarter. The model result shows that the current high potential distribution of the species is around 1.90% of the study area, 7.78% is good potential; about 90.32% is moderate to very low potential for species suitability. Finally, the results of all model represented that there will be a drastic decline in the suitable habitat distribution by 2050 and 2070 for all the RCP scenarios. The study signifies that MaxEnt model might be an efficient tool for ecosystem management, biodiversity protection, and species re-habitation planning under climate change.

Keywords: Garcinia gummi gutta, maximum entropy modeling, medicinal plants, climate change, western ghats, MaxEnt

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Jan Muhammad, Saad Malik, Fadia W. Al-Azawi, Ali Imran

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In the era of climate variability, rising temperatures are the most significant aspect. In this study PRECIS model data and observed data are used for assessing the temperature change scenarios of Sindh province during the first half of present century. Observed data from various meteorological stations of Sindh are the primary source for temperature change detection. The current scenario (1961–1990) and the future one (2010-2050) are acted by the PRECIS Regional Climate Model at a spatial resolution of 25 * 25 km. Regional Climate Model (RCM) can yield reasonably suitable projections to be used for climate-scenario. The main objective of the study is to map the simulated temperature as obtained from climate model-PRECIS and their comparison with observed temperatures. The analysis is done on all the districts of Sindh in order to have a more precise picture of temperature change scenarios. According to results the temperature is likely to increases by 1.5 - 2.1°C by 2050, compared to the baseline temperature of 1961-1990. The model assesses more accurate values in northern districts of Sindh as compared to the coastal belt of Sindh. All the district of the Sindh province exhibit an increasing trend in the mean temperature scenarios and each decade seems to be warmer than the previous one. An understanding of the change in temperatures is very vital for various sectors such as weather forecasting, water, agriculture, and health, etc.

Keywords: PRECIS Model, real observed data, Arc GIS, interpolation techniques

Procedia PDF Downloads 228

Authors: Aiman Mazhar Qureshi, Ahmed Rachid

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Extreme heat events are emerging human environmental health concerns in dense urban areas due to anthropogenic activities. High spatial and temporal resolution heat maps are important for urban heat adaptation and mitigation, helping to indicate hotspots that are required for the attention of city planners. The Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) is the important approach used by decision-makers and urban planners to identify heat-vulnerable communities and areas that require heat stress mitigation strategies. Amiens is a medium-sized French city, where the average temperature has been increasing since the year 2000 by +1°C. Extreme heat events are recorded in the month of July for the last three consecutive years, 2018, 2019 and 2020. Poor air quality, especially ground-level ozone, has been observed mainly during the same hot period. In this study, we evaluated the HVI in Amiens during extreme heat days recorded last three years (2018,2019,2020). The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique is used for fine-scale vulnerability mapping. The main data we considered for this study to develop the HVI model are (a) socio-economic and demographic data; (b) Air pollution; (c) Land use and cover; (d) Elderly heat-illness; (e) socially vulnerable; (f) Remote sensing data (Land surface temperature (LST), mean elevation, NDVI and NDWI). The output maps identified the hot zones through comprehensive GIS analysis. The resultant map shows that high HVI exists in three typical areas: (1) where the population density is quite high and the vegetation cover is small (2) the artificial surfaces (built-in areas) (3) industrial zones that release thermal energy and ground-level ozone while those with low HVI are located in natural landscapes such as rivers and grasslands. The study also illustrates the system theory with a causal diagram after data analysis where anthropogenic activities and air pollution appear in correspondence with extreme heat events in the city. Our suggested index can be a useful tool to guide urban planners and municipalities, decision-makers and public health professionals in targeting areas at high risk of extreme heat and air pollution for future interventions adaptation and mitigation measures.

Keywords: heat vulnerability index, heat mapping, heat health-illness, remote sensing, urban heat mitigation

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Farnaz Nazem

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This paper concentrates on the sustainable traditional architecture and urban planning in hot-humid regions of Iran. In a vast country such as Iran with different climatic zones traditional builders have presented series of logical solutions for human comfort. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate traditional architecture in hot-humid climate of Iran as a sample of sustainable architecture. Iranian traditional architecture has been able to response to environmental problems for a long period of time. Its features are based on climatic factors, local construction materials of hot-humid regions and culture. This paper concludes that Iranian traditional architecture can be addressed as a sustainable architecture.

Keywords: hot-humid climate, Iran, sustainable traditional architecture, urban planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 583

Authors: Atbin Mahabbati, Jason Beringer, Matthias Leopold

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To address the global challenges of climate and environmental changes, there is a need for quantifying and reducing uncertainties in environmental data, including observations of carbon, water, and energy. Global eddy covariance flux tower networks (FLUXNET), and their regional counterparts (i.e., OzFlux, AmeriFlux, China Flux, etc.) were established in the late 1990s and early 2000s to address the demand. Despite the capability of eddy covariance in validating process modelling analyses, field surveys and remote sensing assessments, there are some serious concerns regarding the challenges associated with the technique, e.g. data gaps and uncertainties. To address these concerns, this research has developed an ensemble model to fill the data gaps of CO₂ flux to avoid the limitations of using a single algorithm, and therefore, provide less error and decline the uncertainties associated with the gap-filling process. In this study, the data of five towers in the OzFlux Network (Alice Springs Mulga, Calperum, Gingin, Howard Springs and Tumbarumba) during 2013 were used to develop an ensemble machine learning model, using five feedforward neural networks (FFNN) with different structures combined with an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) algorithm. The former methods, FFNN, provided the primary estimations in the first layer, while the later, XGB, used the outputs of the first layer as its input to provide the final estimations of CO₂ flux. The introduced model showed slight superiority over each single FFNN and the XGB, while each of these two methods was used individually, overall RMSE: 2.64, 2.91, and 3.54 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ respectively (3.54 provided by the best FFNN). The most significant improvement happened to the estimation of the extreme diurnal values (during midday and sunrise), as well as nocturnal estimations, which is generally considered as one of the most challenging parts of CO₂ flux gap-filling. The towers, as well as seasonality, showed different levels of sensitivity to improvements provided by the ensemble model. For instance, Tumbarumba showed more sensitivity compared to Calperum, where the differences between the Ensemble model on the one hand and the FFNNs and XGB, on the other hand, were the least of all 5 sites. Besides, the performance difference between the ensemble model and its components individually were more significant during the warm season (Jan, Feb, Mar, Oct, Nov, and Dec) compared to the cold season (Apr, May, Jun, Jul, Aug, and Sep) due to the higher amount of photosynthesis of plants, which led to a larger range of CO₂ exchange. In conclusion, the introduced ensemble model slightly improved the accuracy of CO₂ flux gap-filling and robustness of the model. Therefore, using ensemble machine learning models is potentially capable of improving data estimation and regression outcome when it seems to be no more room for improvement while using a single algorithm.

Keywords: carbon flux, Eddy covariance, extreme gradient boosting, gap-filling comparison, hybrid model, OzFlux network

Procedia PDF Downloads 110

Authors: Parvin Ghafarian, Mohammadreza Mohammadpur Panchah, Mehri Fallahi

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Synoptic patterns from surface up to tropopause are very important for forecasting the weather and atmospheric conditions. There are many tools to prepare and analyze these maps. Reanalysis data and the outputs of numerical weather prediction models, satellite images, meteorological radar, and weather station data are used in world forecasting centers to predict the weather. The forecasting extreme precipitating on the southern coast of the Caspian Sea (CS) is the main issue due to complex topography. Also, there are different types of climate in these areas. In this research, we used two reanalysis data such as ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation Description (ERA5) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction /National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) for verification of the numerical model. ERA5 is the latest version of ECMWF. The temporal resolution of ERA5 is hourly, and the NCEP/NCAR is every six hours. Some atmospheric parameters such as mean sea level pressure, geopotential height, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, sea surface temperature, etc. were selected and analyzed. Some different type of precipitation (rain and snow) was selected. The results showed that the NCEP/NCAR has more ability to demonstrate the intensity of the atmospheric system. The ERA5 is suitable for extract the value of parameters for specific point. Also, ERA5 is appropriate to analyze the snowfall events over CS (snow cover and snow depth). Sea surface temperature has the main role to generate instability over CS, especially when the cold air pass from the CS. Sea surface temperature of NCEP/NCAR product has low resolution near coast. However, both data were able to detect meteorological synoptic patterns that led to heavy rainfall over CS. However, due to the time lag, they are not suitable for forecast centers. The application of these two data is for research and verification of meteorological models. Finally, ERA5 has a better resolution, respect to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, but NCEP/NCAR data is available from 1948 and appropriate for long term research.

Keywords: synoptic patterns, heavy precipitation, reanalysis data, snow

Procedia PDF Downloads 94

Authors: William Burdick

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Manmade climate change is an existential threat that must be mitigated at the earliest opportunity. The role of government in climate change mitigation is enacting and enforcing law and policy to affect substantial reductions in greenhouse gasses, in the short and long term, without substantial increases in the cost of energy. To be optimally effective those laws and policies must be established and enforced based on peer reviewed evidence and scientific facts and result in substantial outcomes in years, not decades. Over the next fifty years, New York’s 2019 Climate Change and Community Protection Act and 2021 All Electric Building Act that mandate replacing natural gas heating systems with heat pumps will, immediately double annual heating costs and by 2075, yield less than 16.2% reduction in CO₂ emissions from heating systems in new housing units, less than a 13% reduction in total CO₂ emissions, and affect a $40B in cumulative additional heating cost, compared to natural gas fueled heating systems.

Keywords: climate change, mandate, heat pump, natural gas

Procedia PDF Downloads 40

Authors: Carolina S. Monteiro, Eugénia Pinto, Miguel A. Faria, Sara C. Cunha

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Rice (Oryza sativa) production plays a vital role in reducing hunger and poverty and assumes particular importance in low-income and developing countries. Rice is a sensitive plant, and production occurs strictly where suitable temperature and water conditions are found. Climatic changes are likely to affect worldwide, and some models have predicted increased temperatures, variations in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and modification in precipitation patterns. Therefore, the ongoing climatic changes threaten rice production by increasing biotic and abiotic stress factors, and crops will grow in different environmental conditions in the following years. Around the world, the effects will be regional and can be detrimental or advantageous depending on the region. Mediterranean zones have been identified as possible hot spots, where dramatic temperature changes, modifications of CO₂ levels, and rainfall patterns are predicted. The actual estimated atmospheric CO₂ concentration is around 400 ppm, and it is predicted that it can reach up to 1000–1200 ppm, which can lead to a temperature increase of 2–4 °C. Alongside, rainfall patterns are also expected to change, with more extreme wet/dry episodes taking place. As a result, it could increase the migration of pathogens, and a shift in the occurrence of mycotoxins, concerning their types and concentrations, is expected. Mycotoxigenic spoilage fungi can colonize the crops and be present in all rice food chain supplies, especially Penicillium species, mainly resulting in ochratoxin A (OTA) contamination. In this scenario, the objectives of the present study are evaluating the effect of temperature (20 vs. 25 °C), CO₂ (400 vs. 1000 ppm), and water stress (0.93 vs 0.95 water activity) on growth and OTA production by a Penicillium nordicum strain in vitro on rice-based media and when colonizing layers of raw rice. Results demonstrate the effect of temperature, CO₂ and drought on the OTA production in a rice-based environment, thus contributing to the development of mycotoxins predictive models in climate change scenarios. As a result, improving mycotoxins' surveillance and monitoring systems, whose occurrence can be more frequent due to climatic changes, seems relevant and necessary. The development of prediction models for hazard contaminants presents in foods highly sensitive to climatic changes, such as mycotoxins, in the highly probable new agricultural scenarios is of paramount importance.

Keywords: climate changes, ochratoxin A, penicillium, rice

Procedia PDF Downloads 39