Search results for: Simpson 1/3rd rule

Authors: Khachen Kongpakwattana, Nathorn Chaiyakunapruk

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Background: Decision-analytic models for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) have been advanced to discrete-event simulation (DES), in which individual-level modelling of disease progression across continuous severity spectra and incorporation of key parameters such as treatment persistence into the model become feasible. This study aimed to apply the DES to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of treatment for AD in Thailand. Methods: A dataset of Thai patients with AD, representing unique demographic and clinical characteristics, was bootstrapped to generate a baseline cohort of patients. Each patient was cloned and assigned to donepezil, galantamine, rivastigmine, memantine or no treatment. Throughout the simulation period, the model randomly assigned each patient to discrete events including hospital visits, treatment discontinuation and death. Correlated changes in cognitive and behavioral status over time were developed using patient-level data. Treatment effects were obtained from the most recent network meta-analysis. Treatment persistence, mortality and predictive equations for functional status, costs (Thai baht (THB) in 2017) and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) were derived from country-specific real-world data. The time horizon was 10 years, with a discount rate of 3% per annum. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated based on the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 160,000 THB/QALY gained (4,994 US$/QALY gained) in Thailand. Results: Under a societal perspective, only was the prescription of donepezil to AD patients with all disease-severity levels found to be cost-effective. Compared to untreated patients, although the patients receiving donepezil incurred a discounted additional costs of 2,161 THB, they experienced a discounted gain in QALY of 0.021, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 138,524 THB/QALY (4,062 US$/QALY). Besides, providing early treatment with donepezil to mild AD patients further reduced the ICER to 61,652 THB/QALY (1,808 US$/QALY). However, the dominance of donepezil appeared to wane when delayed treatment was given to a subgroup of moderate and severe AD patients [ICER: 284,388 THB/QALY (8,340 US$/QALY)]. Introduction of a treatment stopping rule when the Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE) score goes below 10 to a mild AD cohort did not deteriorate the cost-effectiveness of donepezil at the current treatment persistence level. On the other hand, none of the AD medications was cost-effective when being considered under a healthcare perspective. Conclusions: The DES greatly enhances real-world representativeness of decision-analytic models for AD. Under a societal perspective, treatment with donepezil improves patient’s quality of life and is considered cost-effective when used to treat AD patients with all disease-severity levels in Thailand. The optimal treatment benefits are observed when donepezil is prescribed since the early course of AD. With healthcare budget constraints in Thailand, the implementation of donepezil coverage may be most likely possible when being considered starting with mild AD patients, along with the stopping rule introduced.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, cost-effectiveness analysis, discrete event simulation, health technology assessment

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Authors: Andressa dos Santos Nicolau, João P. da S.C Algusto, Claudio Márcio do N. A. Pereira, Roberto Schirru

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In case of abnormal situations, the nuclear power plant (NPP) operators must follow written procedures to check the condition of the plant and to classify the type of emergency. In this paper, we proposed a Real Time Expert System in order to improve operator’s performance in case of transient or accident with reactor shutdown. The expert system’s knowledge is based on the sequence of events (SoE) of known accident and two emergency procedures of the Brazilian Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) NPP and uses two kinds of knowledge representation: rule and logic trees. The results show that the system was able to classify the response of the automatic protection systems, as well as to evaluate the conditions of the plant, diagnosing the type of occurrence, recovery procedure to be followed, indicating the shutdown root cause, and classifying the emergency level.

Keywords: emergence procedure, expert system, operator support, PWR nuclear power plant

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Authors: Rodrigo Arnaldo Scarpel

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Trend following is a widely accepted investment strategy that adopts a rule-based trading mechanism that rather than striving to predict market direction or on information gathering to decide when to buy and when to sell a stock. Thus, in trend following one must respond to market’s movements that has recently happen and what is currently happening, rather than on what will happen. Optimally, in trend following strategy, is to catch a bull market at its early stage, ride the trend, and liquidate the position at the first evidence of the subsequent bear market. For applying the trend following strategy one needs to find the trend and identify trade signals. In order to avoid false signals, i.e., identify fluctuations of short, mid and long terms and to separate noise from real changes in the trend, most academic works rely on moving averages and other technical analysis indicators, such as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and the relative strength index (RSI) to uncover intelligible stock trading rules following trend following strategy philosophy. Recently, some works has applied machine learning techniques for trade rules discovery. In those works, the process of rule construction is based on evolutionary learning which aims to adapt the rules to the current environment and searches for the global optimum rules in the search space. In this work, instead of focusing on the usage of machine learning techniques for creating trading rules, a time series trend classification employing a semi-supervised approach was used to early identify both the beginning and the end of upward and downward trends. Such classification model can be employed to identify trade signals and the decision-making procedure is that if an up-trend (down-trend) is identified, a buy (sell) signal is generated. Semi-supervised learning is used for model training when only part of the data is labeled and Semi-supervised classification aims to train a classifier from both the labeled and unlabeled data, such that it is better than the supervised classifier trained only on the labeled data. For illustrating the proposed approach, it was employed daily trade information, including the open, high, low and closing values and volume from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2022, of the São Paulo Exchange Composite index (IBOVESPA). Through this time period it was visually identified consistent changes in price, upwards or downwards, for assigning labels and leaving the rest of the days (when there is not a consistent change in price) unlabeled. For training the classification model, a pseudo-label semi-supervised learning strategy was used employing different technical analysis indicators. In this learning strategy, the core is to use unlabeled data to generate a pseudo-label for supervised training. For evaluating the achieved results, it was considered the annualized return and excess return, the Sortino and the Sharpe indicators. Through the evaluated time period, the obtained results were very consistent and can be considered promising for generating the intended trading signals.

Keywords: evolutionary learning, semi-supervised classification, time series data, trading signals generation

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Authors: W. Wang, Y. Zhang, J. Shuai, Z. Lv

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The interaction between defects has an essential influence on the bearing capacity of pipelines. This work developed the finite element model of pipelines containing adjacent defects, which includes longitudinally aligned, circumferentially aligned, and diagonally aligned defects. The relationships between spacing and geometries of defects and the failure pressure of pipelines, and the interaction between defects are investigated. The results show that the orientation of defects is an influential factor in the failure pressure of the pipeline. The influence of defect spacing on the failure pressure of the pipeline is non-linear, and the relationship presents different trends depending on the orientation of defects. The increase of defect geometry will weaken the failure pressure of the pipeline, and for the interaction between defects, the increase of defect depth will enhance it, and the increase of defect length will weaken it. According to the research on the interaction rule between defects with different orientations, the interacting coefficients under different orientations of defects are compared. It is determined that the diagonally aligned defects with the overlap of longitudinal projections are the most obvious arrangement of interaction between defects, and the limited distance of interaction between defects is proposed.

Keywords: pipeline, adjacent defects, interaction between defects, failure pressure

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Authors: Nandini Mukhopadhyay

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The prominence of terracotta as a building material in Bengal is well justified by its geographical location. The architectural knowledge system associated with terracotta can be comprehended in the typology of the built structures as they act as texts to interpret the knowledge. The history of Bengal has witnessed the influence of several rulers in developing the architectural vocabulary of the region. This metamorphosis of the architectural knowledge systems in the region includes the Bhakti movement, the Islamic influence, and the British rule, which led to the evolution of the use of terracotta from decorative elements to structural elements in the present-day context. This paper intends to develop an understanding of terracotta as a building material, its use in a built structure, the common problems associated with terracotta construction, and the techniques of maintenance, repair, and conservation. This paper also explores the size, shape, and geometry of the material and its varied use in temples, mosques in the region. It also takes into note that the use of terracotta was concentrated majorly to religious structures and not in the settlements of the common people. And the architectural style of temples and mosques of Bengal is hugely influenced by the houses of the common.

Keywords: terracotta, material, knowledge system, conservation

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Authors: Gianluca Castelnuovo, Gian Mauro Manzoni, Giada Pietrabissa, Stefania Corti, Emanuele Giusti, Roberto Cattivelli, Enrico Molinari, Susan Simpson

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Obesity is currently an important public health problem of epidemic proportions (globesity). Moreover Binge Eating Disorder (BED) is typically connected with obesity, even if not occurring exclusively in conjunction with overweight conditions. Typically obesity with BED requires a longer term treatment in comparison with simple obesity. Rehabilitation interventions that aim at improving weight-loss, reducing obesity-related complications and changing dysfunctional behaviors, should ideally be carried out in a multidisciplinary context with a clinical team composed of psychologists, dieticians, psychiatrists, endocrinologists, nutritionists, physiotherapists, etc. Long-term outpatient multidisciplinary treatments are likely to constitute an essential aspect of rehabilitation, due to the growing costs of a limited inpatient approach. Internet-based technologies can improve long-term obesity rehabilitation within a collaborative approach. The new m health (m-health, mobile health) paradigm, defined as clinical practices supported by up to date mobile communication devices, could increase compliance- engagement and contribute to a significant cost reduction in BED and obesity rehabilitation. Five psychological components need to be considered for successful m Health-based obesity rehabilitation in order to facilitate weight-loss.1) Self-monitoring. Portable body monitors, pedometers and smartphones are mobile and, therefore, can be easily used, resulting in continuous self-monitoring. 2) Counselor feedback and communication. A functional approach is to provide online weight-loss interventions with brief weekly or monthly counselor or psychologist visits. 3) Social support. A group treatment format is typically preferred for behavioral weight-loss interventions. 4) Structured program. Technology-based weight-loss programs incorporate principles of behavior therapy and change with structured weekly protocolos including nutrition, exercise, stimulus control, self-regulation strategies, goal-setting. 5) Individually tailored program. Interventions specifically designed around individual’s goals typically record higher rates of adherence and weight loss. Opportunities and limitations of m health approach in clinical psychology for obesity and BED are discussed, taking into account future research directions in this promising area.

Keywords: obesity, rehabilitation, out-patient, new technologies, tele medicine, tele care, m health, clinical psychology, psychotherapy, chronic care management

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Authors: Maria Casoria

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Throughout the last decade developing countries have been undergoing substantial reforms to promote the establishment of competition regimes, as consequence of the trade liberalization and the spread of a ‘competition awareness movement’ across the globe. The legislative trend affected the whole Asia. Notwithstanding the existence of extensive joint ventures, cartels and other collusive business relationships in this geographical area, almost all the countries have already passed or are committed to enforce specific laws in the field. The study dwells into legal solutions adopted in the five sub-regions in which the continent is commonly divided –i.e. Central, East, South, Southeast, and Western Asia- and, using a comparative methodology, shed lights on the main differences and similarities in place. The final outcome of the analysis is that, despite the undeniable divergences of approach, what links together the legislation in force in the region is the unveiled influence exercised by the European Union competition regulation. Consequently, in order to properly evaluate the deterrence of the rule of law in the sector concerned, it is fundamental to scrutinize the major role played by the EU and its policy for the evolution of pro-competitive practices in the continent.

Keywords: Asia, competition law, differences and similarities, European union, influences

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Authors: Vijaya K. Narne, Gerard Loquet, Tobias Piechowiak, Dorte Hammershoi, Jesper H. Schmidt

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BEAR, which stands for better hearing rehabilitation is a large-scale project in Denmark designed and executed by three national universities, three hospitals, and the hearing aid industry with the aim to improve hearing aid fitting. A total of 1963 hearing impaired people were included and were segmented into subgroups based on hearing-loss, demographics, audiological and questionnaires data (i.e., the speech, spatial and qualities of hearing scale [SSQ-12] and the International Outcome Inventory for Hearing-Aids [IOI-HA]). With the aim to provide a better hearing-aid fit to individual patients, we applied modern machine learning techniques with traditional audiograms rule-based systems. Results show that age, speech discrimination scores, and audiogram configurations were evolved as important parameters in characterizing sub-population from the data-set. The attempt to characterize sub-population reveal a clearer picture about the individual hearing difficulties encountered and the benefits derived from more individualized hearing aids.

Keywords: hearing loss, audiological data, machine learning, hearing aids

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Authors: Nithiya C., Komathi B. J., Praveena N. G., Samuda Prathima

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At present, the ultimate aim in digital system designs, especially at the gate level and lower levels of design abstraction, is power optimization. Adders are a nearly universal component of today's integrated circuits. Most of the research was on the design of high-speed adders to execute addition based on various adder structures. This paper discusses the ideal path for selecting an arithmetic unit for IoT applications. Based on the analysis of eight types of 16-bit adders, we found out Carry Look-ahead (CLA) produces low power. Additionally, multiplier and accumulator (MAC) unit is implemented with the Booth multiplier by using the low power adders in the order of preference. The design is synthesized and verified using Synopsys Design Compiler and VCS. Then it is implemented by using Cadence Encounter. The total power consumed by the CLA based booth multiplier is 0.03527mW, the total area occupied is 11260 um², and the speed is 2034 ps.

Keywords: carry look-ahead, carry select adder, CSA, internet of things, ripple carry adder, design rule check, power delay product, multiplier and accumulator

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: M. H. Imam, Imran A. Tasadduq, Abdul-Rahim Ahmad, Fahd M. Aldosari

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Learning outcomes of a course (CLOs) and the abilities at the time of graduation referred to as Student Outcomes (SOs) are required to be assessed for ABET accreditation. A question in an assessment must target a CLO as well as an SO and must represent a required level of competence. This paper presents the idea of an Expert System (ES) to select a proper question to satisfy ABET accreditation requirements. For ES implementation, seven attributes of a question are considered including the learning outcomes and Bloom’s Taxonomy level. A database contains all the data about a course including course content topics, course learning outcomes and the CLO-SO relationship matrix. The knowledge base of the presented ES contains a pool of questions each with tags of the specified attributes. Questions and the attributes represent expert opinions. With implicit rule base the inference engine finds the best possible question satisfying the required attributes. It is shown that the novel idea of such an ES can be implemented and applied to a course with success. An application example is presented to demonstrate the working of the proposed ES.

Keywords: expert system, student outcomes, course learning outcomes, question attributes

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Authors: Siqi Lin, Yangang Zhao

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Concrete-filled steel tube column achieves the excellent performance of high strength, stiffness, and ductility due to the confinement from the steel tube. Well understanding the stress of the steel tube is important to make clear the confinement effect. In this paper, the ultimate stress of the steel tube in circular concrete-filled steel tube columns subjected to axial compression was studied. Experimental tests were conducted to investigate the effects of the parameters, including concrete strength, steel strength, and D/t ratio, on the ultimate stress of the steel tube. The stress of the steel tube was determined by employing the Prandtl-Reuss flow rule associated with isotropic strain hardening. Results indicate that the stress of steel tube was influenced by the parameters. Specimen with higher strength ratio fy/fc and smaller D/t ratio generally leads to a higher utilization efficiency of the steel tube.

Keywords: concrete-filled steel tube, axial compression, ultimate stress, utilization efficiency

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Authors: Umesh Regmi

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This research briefly covers the historical, cultural, and religious significance of the palaces of Mustang. The research forwards an introduction of the five palaces of Mustang located in Lo Monthang, Tsarang, Thinkar, Ghami, and Dhagmar. These five palaces have survived for centuries till date in different forms of physical condition, though there were originally eight palaces as recorded in the historical sources. The palaces of Mustang are deeply connected to the Buddhist religious practices exhibited through the intangible cultural practices taking place in and around the palaces. The architectural plan and location of religious shrines and halls in certain sections of the palaces are common in all the palaces of the Mustang. The palace of Lo Monthang works as the center of rule, and the other four palaces function as satellite palaces located in the surrounding areas of Lo Monthang. The architectural ensemble of the Palace of Mustang is the symbol of the cultural, administrative, social, and religious authority of the royal family of Mustang. The palace performed the role of unifier of the political and cultural geography of the former independent Buddhist Kingdom of Lo (Mustang).

Keywords: cultural heritage, royal palace, mustang, buddhist kingdom, palace architecture

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Authors: Jinsiang Shaw, Pik-Hoe Chen

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This paper aims to integrate human recognition, motion recognition, and object tracking technologies without requiring a pre-training database model for motion recognition or the unknown object itself. Furthermore, it can simultaneously track multiple users and multiple objects. Unlike other existing human motion recognition methods, our approach employs a rule-based condition method to determine if a user hand is approaching or departing an object. It uses a background subtraction method to separate the human and object from the background, and employs behavior features to effectively interpret human object-grabbing actions. With an object’s histogram characteristics, we are able to isolate and track it using back projection. Hence, a moving object trajectory can be recorded and the object itself can be located. This particular technique can be used in a camera surveillance system in a shopping area to perform real-time intelligent surveillance, thus preventing theft. Experimental results verify the validity of the developed surveillance algorithm with an accuracy of 83% for shoplifting detection.

Keywords: Automatic Tracking, Back Projection, Motion Recognition, Shoplifting

Procedia PDF Downloads 333

Authors: J. Urban, Á. S. Botella, L. E. Robaina, A. Bárta, P. Souček, P. Císař, Š. Papáček, L. M. Domínguez

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Skin coloration in fish is of great physiological, behavioral and ecological importance and can be considered as an index of animal welfare in aquaculture as well as an important quality factor in the retail value. Currently, in order to compare color in animals fed on different diets, biochemical analysis, and colorimetry of fished, mildly anesthetized or dead body, are very accurate and meaningful measurements. The noninvasive method using digital images of the fish body was developed as a standalone application. This application deals with the computation burden and memory consumption of large input files, optimizing piece wise processing and analysis with the memory/computation time ratio. For the comparison of color distributions of various experiments and different color spaces (RGB, CIE L*a*b*) the comparable semi-equidistant binning of multi channels representation is introduced. It is derived from the knowledge of quantization levels and Freedman-Diaconis rule. The color calibrations and camera responsivity function were necessary part of the measurement process.

Keywords: color distribution, fish skin color, piecewise transformation, object to background segmentation

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Authors: A. Lambert-Mogiliansky

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In this paper, we investigate the properties of simple rules for reappointment aimed at holding a public official accountable and monitor his activity. The public official allocates budget resources to various activities which results in the delivery of public services to citizens. He has discretion over the use of resource so he can divert some of them for private ends. Because of a liability constraint, zero diversion can never be secured in all states. The optimal reappointment mechanism under complete information is shown to exhibit some leniency thus departing from the zero tolerance principle. Under asymmetric information (about the state), a rule with random verification in a pre-announced subset is shown to be optimal in a class of common rules. Surprisingly, those common rules make little use of hard information about service delivery when available. Similarly, PO's claim about his record is of no value to improve the performance of the examined rules. In contrast requesting that the PO defends his records publicly can be very useful if the service users are given the chance to refute false claims with cheap talk complaints: the first best complete information outcome can be approached in the absence of any observation by the manager of the accountability mechanism.

Keywords: accountability, corruption, persuasion, debate

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Authors: Nicole Merkle, Stefan Zander

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Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) describes a technological and methodological stack of (e.g. formal model-theoretic semantics, rule-based reasoning and machine learning), different aspects regarding the behavior, activities and characteristics of humans. Hence, a semantic representation of the user environment and its relevant elements are required in order to allow assistive agents to recognize situations and deduce appropriate actions. Furthermore, the user and his/her characteristics (e.g. physical, cognitive, preferences) need to be represented with a high degree of expressiveness in order to allow software agents a precise evaluation of the users’ context models. The correct interpretation of these context models highly depends on temporal, spatial circumstances as well as individual user preferences. In most AAL approaches, model representations of real world situations represent the current state of a universe of discourse at a given point in time by neglecting transitions between a set of states. However, the AAL domain currently lacks sufficient approaches that contemplate on the dynamic adaptions of context-related representations. Semantic representations of relevant real-world excerpts (e.g. user activities) help cognitive, rule-based agents to reason and make decisions in order to help users in appropriate tasks and situations. Furthermore, rules and reasoning on semantic models are not sufficient for handling uncertainty and fuzzy situations. A certain situation can require different (re-)actions in order to achieve the best results with respect to the user and his/her needs. But what is the best result? To answer this question, we need to consider that every smart agent requires to achieve an objective, but this objective is mostly defined by domain experts who can also fail in their estimation of what is desired by the user and what not. Hence, a smart agent has to be able to learn from context history data and estimate or predict what is most likely in certain contexts. Furthermore, different agents with contrary objectives can cause collisions as their actions influence the user’s context and constituting conditions in unintended or uncontrolled ways. We present an approach for dynamically updating a semantic model with respect to the current user context that allows flexibility of the software agents and enhances their conformance in order to improve the user experience. The presented approach adapts rules by learning sensor evidence and user actions using probabilistic reasoning approaches, based on given expert knowledge. The semantic domain model consists basically of device-, service- and user profile representations. In this paper, we present how this semantic domain model can be used in order to compute the probability of matching rules and actions. We apply this probability estimation to compare the current domain model representation with the computed one in order to adapt the formal semantic representation. Our approach aims at minimizing the likelihood of unintended interferences in order to eliminate conflicts and unpredictable side-effects by updating pre-defined expert knowledge according to the most probable context representation. This enables agents to adapt to dynamic changes in the environment which enhances the provision of adequate assistance and affects positively the user satisfaction.

Keywords: ambient intelligence, machine learning, semantic web, software agents

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Authors: Muhammad Saleem

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The research paper entitled above would be a comprehensive and critical study of translations of the meanings of the Holy Qur’an. The discussion will deal with the targets & purposes of Urdu (National Language of Pakistan) translators of the meanings of the Holy Qur’an. There are more than 400 translations of the meanings of the Holy Qur’an in the Urdu Language. Muslims, non-Muslims and some organizations have made translations of the meanings of the Holy Qur’an to meet various targets. It is observed that all Urdu translators have not translated the Qur’an with a single objective and motivation; rather, some are biased and strive to discredit the Qur’an. Thus, they have made unauthentic and fabricated translations of the Qur’an. Some optimistically believe that they intend to do a service, whereas others pessimistically hold that they treacherously seek to further their rule. Some of them have been observed to be against Islam, starting their activities with spite, but after perceiving the truths of Islam and the miracle and greatness of the Holy Qur’an, they submitted to Islam, embracing it with pure hearts. Some translators made their translations of the meanings of the Holy Qur’an to serve Allah, and some of them have done their translations to earn only. All these translations vary from one to another due to style, trend, type, method and style. Some Urdu translations have been made to fulfill the lingual requirements. Some translations have been made by Muslim scholars to reduce the influence of Urdu translations of the meanings of the Holy Qur’an by Non-Muslims. The article deals with the various purposes of the translators of the meanings of the Holy Qur’an.

Keywords: Qur'an, translation, urdu, language

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Authors: Slobodan B. Tričković

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We present the results concerned with trigonometric series that include sine and cosine functions with a parameter appearing in the denominator. We derive two types of closed-form formulas for trigonometric series. At first, for some integer values, as we know that Riemann’s ζ function and Dirichlet η, λ equal zero at negative even integers, whereas Dirichlet’s β function equals zero at negative odd integers, after a certain number of members, the rest of the series vanishes. Thus, a trigonometric series becomes a polynomial with coefficients involving Riemann’s ζ function and Dirichlet η, λ, β functions. On the other hand, in some cases, one cannot immediately replace the parameter with any positive integer because we shall encounter singularities. So it is necessary to take a limit, so in the process, we apply L’Hospital’s rule and, after a series of rearrangements, we bring a trigonometric series to a form suitable for the application of Choi-Srivastava’s theorem dealing with Hurwitz’s zeta function and Harmonic numbers. In this way, we express a trigonometric series as a polynomial over Hurwitz’s zeta function derivative.

Keywords: Dirichlet eta lambda beta functions, Riemann's zeta function, Hurwitz zeta function, Harmonic numbers

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Authors: V. Makis, L. Jafari

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In this paper, we develop an optimal Bayesian chart to control the expected number of defects per inspection unit in production processes with long production runs. We formulate this control problem in the optimal stopping framework. The objective is to determine the optimal stopping rule minimizing the long-run expected average cost per unit time considering partial information obtained from the process sampling at regular epochs. We prove the optimality of the control limit policy, i.e., the process is stopped and the search for assignable causes is initiated when the posterior probability that the process is out of control exceeds a control limit. An algorithm in the semi-Markov decision process framework is developed to calculate the optimal control limit and the corresponding average cost. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the developed optimal control chart and to compare it with the traditional u-chart.

Keywords: Bayesian u-chart, economic design, optimal stopping, semi-Markov decision process, statistical process control

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Authors: Madala Venkateswara Rao

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The major blood supply to the long bones occurs through the nutrient arteries, which enters through the nutrient foramina. This is the study of nutrient Foramina in the shaft of upper limb long bones taken from the department of Anatomy at Narayana medical college nellore. Nutrient foramina play an important role in nutrition and growth of the bones. Most of the nutrient arteries follow the rule, 'to the elbow I go, from the knee I flee' but they are very variable in position. Their number, location, direction & its importance in the growing end of long bones were studied in the long bones of upper limb. The present study has variations in the position & direction of long bones especially in the radius & ulna, as most of the nutrient foramina are found in anterior surface of upper 1/3rd and middle 1/3rd of these bones. The study of nutrient foramina is not only of academic interest but also in medico-legal practice in relation to their position. Careful observation has also been made on the position of nutrient foramina in relation to upper end of long bones. This study also gives importance of length long bones to know the height of an individual. With the knowledge of variations in the nutrient foramen, placement of internal fixation devices can be appropriately done.

Keywords: nutrient artery, nutrient foramina, shaft of long bones, upper limb bones

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Authors: Berkay Ergene, Çağın Bolat

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In this study, we mainly focused on a simulation study regarding composite footbed in order to contribute to shoe industry. As a footbed, e-glass fiber reinforced polyurethane was determined since polyurethane based materials are already used for footbed in shoe manufacturing frequently. Flat, elliptical and rectangular grooved shoe soles were modeled and analyzed separately as TPU, 10% glass fiber reinforced, 30% glass fiber reinforced and 50% glass fiber reinforced materials according to their properties under three point bending and compression situations to determine the relationship between model, material type and mechanical behaviours of composite model. ANSYS 14.0 APDL mechanical structural module is utilized in all simulations and analyzed stress and strain distributions for different footbed models and materials. Furthermore, materials constants like young modulus, shear modulus, Poisson ratio and density of the composites were calculated theoretically by using composite mixture rule and interpreted for mechanical aspects.

Keywords: composite, elastic behaviour, footbed, simulation

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Authors: Matich Lyubov

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Today roadmaps are becoming commonly used tools for detecting and designing a desired future for companies, states and the international community. The growing popularity of this method puts tasks such as identifying basic roadmapping principles, creation of concepts and determination of the characteristics of the use of roadmaps depending on the objectives as well as restrictions and opportunities specific to the study area on the agenda. However, the system approach, e.g. the elements which are recognized to be major for high-quality roadmapping, remains one of the main fields for improving the methodology and practice of their development as limited research was devoted to the detailed analysis of the roadmaps from the view of system approach. Therefore, this article is an attempt to examine roadmaps from the view of the system analysis, to compare areas, where, as a rule, roadmaps and systems analysis are considered the most effective tools. To compare the structure and composition of roadmaps and systems models the identification of common points between construction stages of roadmaps and system modeling and the determination of future directions for research roadmaps from a systems perspective are of special importance.

Keywords: technology roadmap, roadmapping, systems analysis, system modeling, innovation management

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Authors: Vahdetti̇n Sariyel, Bi̇rol Dağ

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In this research, growth and development parameters in Konya, a private company in Saanen kids reared in intensive conditions in the province were examined. Average birth weights were 3.42, 2.96, 3.57, 3.23 and 2.77 kg for male, female, single, twins and triplets kids. Average weaning weights (three months of age) were 12.65, 12.09, 12.80, 12.65 and 11.68 kg for male, female, single, twins and triplets kids. Average body weights at seven months of age were 20.55, 18.98, 20.12, 20.12 and 19.05 kg for male, female, single, twins and triplets kids respectively. Considering the gender of the live weight factors birth control and rule in favor of the first en ( P <0.01), the second control finally it disappeared statistically significant ( P> 0.05). Main age and the effect of birth weight in the first month, while significant (P < 0.01); The effect of the second month following the live weight of the kid was not significant.

Keywords: Saanen kids, growth, development, body weight

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Authors: Usman Qamar, Younus Javed

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Frequent pattern mining is the process of finding a pattern (a set of items, subsequences, substructures, etc.) that occurs frequently in a data set. It was proposed in the context of frequent itemsets and association rule mining. Frequent pattern mining is used to find inherent regularities in data. What products were often purchased together? Its applications include basket data analysis, cross-marketing, catalog design, sale campaign analysis, Web log (click stream) analysis, and DNA sequence analysis. However, one of the bottlenecks of frequent itemset mining is that as the data increase the amount of time and resources required to mining the data increases at an exponential rate. In this investigation a new algorithm is proposed which can be uses as a pre-processor for frequent itemset mining. FASTER (FeAture SelecTion using Entropy and Rough sets) is a hybrid pre-processor algorithm which utilizes entropy and rough-sets to carry out record reduction and feature (attribute) selection respectively. FASTER for frequent itemset mining can produce a speed up of 3.1 times when compared to original algorithm while maintaining an accuracy of 71%.

Keywords: rough-sets, classification, feature selection, entropy, outliers, frequent itemset mining

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Authors: Muhammad Usman

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Pattern extraction has been done in past to extract hidden and interesting patterns from large datasets. Recently, advancements are being made in these techniques by providing the ability of multi-level mining, effective dimension reduction, advanced evaluation and visualization support. This paper focuses on reviewing the current techniques in literature on the basis of these parameters. Literature review suggests that most of the techniques which provide multi-level mining and dimension reduction, do not handle mixed-type data during the process. Patterns are not extracted using advanced algorithms for large datasets. Moreover, the evaluation of patterns is not done using advanced measures which are suited for high-dimensional data. Techniques which provide visualization support are unable to handle a large number of rules in a small space. We present a theoretical model to handle these issues. The implementation of the model is beyond the scope of this paper.

Keywords: association rule mining, data mining, data warehouses, visualization of association rules

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Authors: Jennifer E Simpson

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Background and purpose: The ubiquitous use of the Internet and social media by children and young people has had a dual effect. The first is to open a world of possibilities and promise that is characterized by the ability to consume and create content, connect with friends, explore and experiment. The second relates to risks such as unsolicited requests, sexual exploitation, cyberbullying and commercial exploitation. This duality poses significant difficulties for a generation of foster carers and social workers who have no childhood experience to draw on in terms of growing up using the Internet, social media and digital devices. This presentation is concerned with the findings of a small qualitative study about the use of digital devices and the Internet by care-experienced young people to stay in touch with their families and the way this was managed by foster carers and social workers using specific parental mediation strategies. The findings highlight that restrictive strategies were used by foster carers and endorsed by social workers. An argument is made for an approach that develops a series of balanced solutions that move foster carers from such restrictive approaches to those that are grounded in co-use and are interpretive in nature. Methods: Using a purposive sampling strategy, 12 triads consisting of care-experienced young people (aged 13-18 years), their foster carers and allocated social workers were recruited. All respondents undertook a semi-structured interview, with the young people detailing what social media apps and other devices they used to contact their families via an Ecomap. The foster carers and social workers shared details of the methods and approaches they used to manage digital devices and the Internet in general. Data analysis was performed using a Framework analytic method to explore the various attitudes, as well as complementary and contradictory perspectives of the young people, their foster carers and allocated social workers. Findings: The majority of foster carers made use of parental mediation strategies that erred on the side of typologies that included setting rules and regulations (restrictive), ad-hoc checking of a young person’s behavior and device (monitoring), and software used to limit or block access to inappropriate websites (technical). It was noted that minimal use was made by foster carers of parental mediation strategies that included talking about content (active/interpretive) or sharing Internet activities (co-use). Amongst the majority of the social workers, they also had a strong preference for restrictive approaches. Conclusions and implications: Trepidations on the part of both foster carers and social workers about the use of digital devices and the Internet meant that the parental strategies used were weighted more towards restriction, with little use made of approaches such as co-use and interpretative. This lack of balance calls for solutions that are grounded in co-use and an interpretive approach, both of which can be achieved through training and support, as well as wider policy change.

Keywords: parental mediation strategies, risk, children in state care, online safety

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Authors: Esther Simpson, Evans Addo Tetteh

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One of the most important sectors in Ghana’s economy is the oil and gas sector. Effective supply chain management is required to ensure the timely delivery of these products to the end users, given the rise in nationwide demand for petroleum products. Contrarily, freight forwarding plays a crucial role in facilitating intra- and intra-country trade, particularly the movement of oil goods. Nevertheless, there has not been enough scientific study done on how marketing, supply chain management, and freight forwarding are integrated in the oil business. By highlighting possible areas for development in the supply chain management of petroleum products, this article seeks to close this gap. The study was predominantly qualitative and featured semi-structured interviews with influential figures in the oil and gas sector, such as marketers, distributors, freight forwarders, and regulatory organizations. The purpose of the interviews was to determine the difficulties and possibilities for enhancing the management of the petroleum products supply chain. Thematic analysis was used to examine the data obtained in order to find patterns and themes that arose. The findings from the study revealed that the oil sector faced a number of issues in terms of supply chain management. Inadequate infrastructure, insufficient storage facilities, a lack of cooperation among parties, and an inadequate regulatory framework were among the obstacles. Furthermore, the study indicated significant prospects for enhancing petroleum product supply chain management, such as the integration of more advanced digital technologies, the formation of strategic alliances, and the adoption of sustainable practices in petroleum product supply chain management. The study's conclusions have far-reaching ramifications for the oil and gas sector, freight forwarding, and Ghana’s economy as a whole. Marketing, supply chain management, and freight forwarding has high prospects from being integrated to improve the efficiency of the petroleum product supply chain, resulting in considerable cost savings for the industry. Furthermore, the use of sustainable practices will improve the industry's sustainability and lessen the environmental effect of the petroleum product supply chain. Based on the findings, we propose that stakeholders in Ghana’s oil and gas sector work together and collaborate to enhance petroleum supply chain management. This collaboration should include the use of digital technologies, the formation of strategic alliances, and the implementation of sustainable practices. Moreover, we urge that governments establish suitable rules to guarantee the efficient and sustainable management of petroleum product supply chains. In conclusion, the integration and combination of marketing, supply chain management, and freight forwarding in the oil business gives a tremendous opportunity for enhancing petroleum product supply chain management. The study's conclusions have far-reaching ramifications for the sector, freight forwarding, and the economy as a whole. Using sustainable practices, integrating digital technology, and forming strategic alliances will improve the efficiency and sustainability of the petroleum product supply chain. We expect that this conference paper will encourage more study and collaboration among oil and gas sector stakeholders to improve petroleum supply chain management.

Keywords: collaboration, logistics, sustainability, supply chain management

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Authors: Ryan B. Simpson, Margaret A. Waskow, Aishwarya Venkat, Elena N. Naumova

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The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate that 31 known foodborne pathogens cause 9.4 million cases of these illnesses annually in US. Over 90% of these illnesses are associated with exposure to Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, Cyclospora, Listeria, Salmonella, Shigella, Shiga-Toxin Producing E.Coli (STEC), Vibrio, and Yersinia. Contaminated products contain parasites typically causing an intestinal illness manifested by diarrhea, stomach cramping, nausea, weight loss, fatigue and may result in deaths in fragile populations. Since 1998, the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) has allowed for routine collection of suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases of food poisoning. While retrospective analyses have revealed common pathogen-specific seasonal patterns, little is known concerning the stability of those patterns over time and whether they can be used for preventative forecasting. The objective of this study is to construct a calendar of foodborne outbreaks of nine infections based on the peak timing of outbreak incidence in the US from 1996 to 2017. Reported cases were abstracted from FoodNet for Salmonella (135115), Campylobacter (121099), Shigella (48520), Cryptosporidium (21701), STEC (18022), Yersinia (3602), Vibrio (3000), Listeria (2543), and Cyclospora (758). Monthly counts were compiled for each agent, seasonal peak timing and peak intensity were estimated, and the stability of seasonal peaks and synchronization of infections was examined. Negative Binomial harmonic regression models with the delta-method were applied to derive confidence intervals for the peak timing for each year and overall study period estimates. Preliminary results indicate that five infections continue to lead as major causes of outbreaks, exhibiting steady upward trends with annual increases in cases ranging from 2.71% (95%CI: [2.38, 3.05]) in Campylobacter, 4.78% (95%CI: [4.14, 5.41]) in Salmonella, 7.09% (95%CI: [6.38, 7.82]) in E.Coli, 7.71% (95%CI: [6.94, 8.49]) in Cryptosporidium, and 8.67% (95%CI: [7.55, 9.80]) in Vibrio. Strong synchronization of summer outbreaks were observed, caused by Campylobacter, Vibrio, E.Coli and Salmonella, peaking at 7.57 ± 0.33, 7.84 ± 0.47, 7.85 ± 0.37, and 7.82 ± 0.14 calendar months, respectively, with the serial cross-correlation ranging 0.81-0.88 (p < 0.001). Over 21 years, Listeria and Cryptosporidium peaks (8.43 ± 0.77 and 8.52 ± 0.45 months, respectively) have a tendency to arrive 1-2 weeks earlier, while Vibrio peaks (7.8 ± 0.47) delay by 2-3 weeks. These findings will be incorporated in the forecast models to predict common paths of the spread, long-term trends, and the synchronization of outbreaks across etiological agents. The predictive modeling of foodborne outbreaks should consider long-term changes in seasonal timing, spatiotemporal trends, and sources of contamination.

Keywords: foodborne outbreak, national outbreak reporting system, predictive modeling, seasonality

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Authors: Sahand Hamed Moeel Ardebil, Zohreh Taebi Noghondari, Mahmood Reza Ghorban Sabbagh

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Gillian Flynn’s Gone Girl, depicts a society in which, as a result of media dominance, the reality is very precarious and difficult to grasp. In Gone Girl, reality and image of reality represented on TV, are challenging to differentiate. Along with reality, individuals’ agency and independence before media and the capitalist rule are called in to question in the novel. In order to expose the unstable nature of reality and an individual’s complicated relationship with media, this study has deployed the ideas of Marxist-media theorist Guy Debord (1931-1992). In his book Society of the Spectacle (1966), Debord delineates a society in which images replace the objective reality, and people are incapable of making real changes. The results of the current study show that despite their efforts, Nick and Amy, the two main characters of the novel, are no more than spectators with very little agency before the media. Moreover, following Debord’s argument about the replacement of reality with images, everyone and every institution in Gone Girl projects an image that does not necessarily embody the objective reality, a fact that makes it very hard to differentiate the real from unreal.

Keywords: agency, Debord, Gone Girl, media studies, society of spectacle, reality

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Authors: Watcharapan Sukkerd, Teeradej Wuttipornpun

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This paper aims to present non-population search algorithms called tabu search (TS), simulated annealing (SA) and variable neighborhood search (VNS) to minimize the total cost of capacitated MRP problem in multi-stage assembly flow shop with two alternative machines. There are three main steps for the algorithm. Firstly, an initial sequence of orders is constructed by a simple due date-based dispatching rule. Secondly, the sequence of orders is repeatedly improved to reduce the total cost by applying TS, SA and VNS separately. Finally, the total cost is further reduced by optimizing the start time of each operation using the linear programming (LP) model. Parameters of the algorithm are tuned by using real data from automotive companies. The result shows that VNS significantly outperforms TS, SA and the existing algorithm.

Keywords: capacitated MRP, tabu search, simulated annealing, variable neighborhood search, linear programming, assembly flow shop, application in industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 234