Search results for: structural equation modeling
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8793

Search results for: structural equation modeling

4653 Impact of Solar Radiation Effects on the Physicochemical Properties of Unformulated Polyethylene (PE) Plastic Film

Authors: A. Adelhafidhi, I. M. Babaghayou, S. F. Chabira, M. Sebaa

Abstract:

This study deals with the photodegradation of unformulated polyethylene films for greenhouse covering. The UV range of solar light appears as the most deleterious factor of plastic degradation in outdoor exposure. The reasons of this photosensitivity are structural defects which are light-absorbing. The use of FTIR as an investigation tool has revealed that the material reacts with surrounding oxygen via a photooxidation process. Although the photochemical process is quite complex, it appears through this study than crosslinking and chain scissions are the most important events taking place during aging These two key reactions change irremediably the average molecular weight affecting thus drastically the mechanical properties and reducing, in the same way, the service lifetime of the films.

Keywords: polyethylene, films, unformulated, FTIR, ageing

Procedia PDF Downloads 351
4652 Assessing Pain Using Morbid Motion Monitor System in the Pain Management of Nurse Practitioner

Authors: Mohammad Reza Dawoudi

Abstract:

With the increasing rate of patients suffering from chronic pain, several methods for evaluating of chronic pain are suggested. Motion of morbid has been defined as the rate of pine and it is linked with various co-morbid conditions. This study provides a summary of procedure useful to statistics performing direct behavioral observation in hospital settings. We describe the need for and usefulness of comprehensive “morbid motions” observations; provide a primer on the identification, definition, and assessment of morbid behaviors; and outline and discuss specific statistical procedures, including formulating referral motions, describing and conducting the observation. We also provide practical devices for observing and analyzing the obtained information into a report that guides clinical intervention.

Keywords: assessing pain, DNA modeling, image matching technique, pain scale

Procedia PDF Downloads 387
4651 Fe-Doped Graphene Nanoparticles for Gas Sensing Applications

Authors: Shivani A. Singh, Pravin S. More

Abstract:

In the present inspection, we indicate the falsification of Fe-doped graphene nanoparticles by modified Hummers method. Structural and physiochemical properties of the resulting pallets were explored with the help of ultraviolet-visible spectroscopy (UV-Vis), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), X-ray powder diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM), Photoluminescence spectroscopy (PL) for graphene sample exhibits absorption peaks ~248nm. Pure graphene shows PL peak at 348 nm. After doping of Fe with graphene the PL peak shifted from 348 nm to 332 nm. The oxidation degree, i.e. the relative amount of oxygen functional groups was estimated from the relative intensities of the oxygen related bands (ORB) in the FTIR measurements. These analyses show that this modified material can be useful for gas sensing applications and to be used in diverse areas.

Keywords: chemical doping, graphene, gas sensing, sensing

Procedia PDF Downloads 199
4650 Influence of Some Technological Parameters on the Content of Voids in Composite during On-Line Consolidation with Filament Winding Technology

Authors: M. Stefanovska, B. Samakoski, S. Risteska, G. Maneski

Abstract:

In this study was performed in situ consolidation of polypropylene matrix/glass reinforced roving by combining heating systems and roll pressing. The commingled roving during hoop winding was winded on a cylindrical mandrel. The work also presents the advances made in the processing of these materials into composites by conventional technique filament winding. Experimental studies were performed with changing parameters – temperature, pressure and speed. Finally, it describes the investigation of the optimal processing conditions that maximize the mechanical properties of the composites. These properties are good enough for composites to be used as engineering materials in many structural applications.

Keywords: commingled fiber, consolidation heat, filament winding, voids

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4649 Modeling a Closed Loop Supply Chain with Continuous Price Decrease and Dynamic Deterministic Demand

Authors: H. R. Kamali, A. Sadegheih, M. A. Vahdat-Zad, H. Khademi-Zare

Abstract:

In this paper, a single product, multi-echelon, multi-period closed loop supply chain is surveyed, including a variety of costs, time conditions, and capacities, to plan and determine the values and time of the components procurement, production, distribution, recycling and disposal specially for high-tech products that undergo a decreasing production cost and sale price over time. For this purpose, the mathematic model of the problem that is a kind of mixed integer linear programming is presented, and it is finally proved that the problem belongs to the category of NP-hard problems.

Keywords: closed loop supply chain, continuous price decrease, NP-hard, planning

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4648 Modeling Diel Trends of Dissolved Oxygen for Estimating the Metabolism in Pristine Streams in the Brazilian Cerrado

Authors: Wesley A. Saltarelli, Nicolas R. Finkler, Adriana C. P. Miwa, Maria C. Calijuri, Davi G. F. Cunha

Abstract:

The metabolism of the streams is an indicator of ecosystem disturbance due to the influences of the catchment on the structure of the water bodies. The study of the respiration and photosynthesis allows the estimation of energy fluxes through the food webs and the analysis of the autotrophic and heterotrophic processes. We aimed at evaluating the metabolism in streams located in the Brazilian savannah, Cerrado (Sao Carlos, SP), by determining and modeling the daily changes of dissolved oxygen (DO) in the water during one year. Three water bodies with minimal anthropogenic interference in their surroundings were selected, Espraiado (ES), Broa (BR) and Canchim (CA). Every two months, water temperature, pH and conductivity are measured with a multiparameter probe. Nitrogen and phosphorus forms are determined according to standard methods. Also, canopy cover percentages are estimated in situ with a spherical densitometer. Stream flows are quantified through the conservative tracer (NaCl) method. For the metabolism study, DO (PME-MiniDOT) and light (Odyssey Photosynthetic Active Radiation) sensors log data for at least three consecutive days every ten minutes. The reaeration coefficient (k2) is estimated through the method of the tracer gas (SF6). Finally, we model the variations in DO concentrations and calculate the rates of gross and net primary production (GPP and NPP) and respiration based on the one station method described in the literature. Three sampling were carried out in October and December 2015 and February 2016 (the next will be in April, June and August 2016). The results from the first two periods are already available. The mean water temperatures in the streams were 20.0 +/- 0.8C (Oct) and 20.7 +/- 0.5C (Dec). In general, electrical conductivity values were low (ES: 20.5 +/- 3.5uS/cm; BR 5.5 +/- 0.7uS/cm; CA 33 +/- 1.4 uS/cm). The mean pH values were 5.0 (BR), 5.7 (ES) and 6.4 (CA). The mean concentrations of total phosphorus were 8.0ug/L (BR), 66.6ug/L (ES) and 51.5ug/L (CA), whereas soluble reactive phosphorus concentrations were always below 21.0ug/L. The BR stream had the lowest concentration of total nitrogen (0.55mg/L) as compared to CA (0.77mg/L) and ES (1.57mg/L). The average discharges were 8.8 +/- 6L/s (ES), 11.4 +/- 3L/s and CA 2.4 +/- 0.5L/s. The average percentages of canopy cover were 72% (ES), 75% (BR) and 79% (CA). Significant daily changes were observed in the DO concentrations, reflecting predominantly heterotrophic conditions (respiration exceeded the gross primary production, with negative net primary production). The GPP varied from 0-0.4g/m2.d (in Oct and Dec) and the R varied from 0.9-22.7g/m2.d (Oct) and from 0.9-7g/m2.d (Dec). The predominance of heterotrophic conditions suggests increased vulnerability of the ecosystems to artificial inputs of organic matter that would demand oxygen. The investigation of the metabolism in the pristine streams can help defining natural reference conditions of trophic state.

Keywords: low-order streams, metabolism, net primary production, trophic state

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4647 Model Evaluation of Nanosecond, High-Intensity Electric Pulses Induced Cellular Apoptosis

Authors: Jiahui Song, Ravindra Joshi

Abstract:

High-intensity, nanosecond, pulsed electric fields have been shown to be useful non-thermal tools capable of producing a variety of specific cellular responses. While reversible and temporary changes are often desired based on electromanipulation, irreversible effects can also be important objectives. These include elimination of tumor cells and bacterial decontamination. A simple model-based rate-equation treatment of the various cellular biochemical processes was used to qualitatively predict the pulse number-dependent caspase activation and cell survival trends. The model incorporated the caspase-8 associated extrinsic pathway, the delay inherent in its activation, cytochrome c release, and the internal feedback mechanism between caspase-3 and Bid. Results were roughly in keeping with the experimental cell-survival data. A pulse-number threshold was predicted followed by a near-exponential fall-off. The intrinsic pathway was shown to be much weaker as compared to the extrinsic mechanism for electric pulse induced cell apoptosis. Also, delays of about an hour are predicted for detectable molecular concentration increases following electrical pulsing.

Keywords: apoptosis, cell survival, model, pathway

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4646 Thermomechanical Damage Modeling of F114 Carbon Steel

Authors: A. El Amri, M. El Yakhloufi Haddou, A. Khamlichi

Abstract:

The numerical simulation based on the Finite Element Method (FEM) is widely used in academic institutes and in the industry. It is a useful tool to predict many phenomena present in the classical manufacturing forming processes such as fracture. But, the results of such numerical model depend strongly on the parameters of the constitutive behavior model. The influences of thermal and mechanical loads cause damage. The temperature and strain rate dependent materials’ properties and their modelling are discussed. A Johnson-Cook Model of damage has been selected for the numerical simulations. Virtual software called the ABAQUS 6.11 is used for finite element analysis. This model was introduced in order to give information concerning crack initiation during thermal and mechanical loads.

Keywords: thermo-mechanical fatigue, failure, numerical simulation, fracture, damage

Procedia PDF Downloads 378
4645 Extended Boolean Petri Nets Generating N-Ary Trees

Authors: Riddhi Jangid, Gajendra Pratap Singh

Abstract:

Petri nets, a mathematical tool, is used for modeling in different areas of computer sciences, biological networks, chemical systems and many other disciplines. A Petri net model of a given system is created by the graphical representation that describes the properties and behavior of the system. While looking for the behavior of any system, 1-safe Petri nets are of particular interest to many in the application part. Boolean Petri nets correspond to those class in 1- safe Petri nets that generate all the binary n-vectors in their reachability analysis. We study the class by changing different parameters like the token counts in the places and how the structure of the tree changes in the reachability analysis. We discuss here an extended class of Boolean Petri nets that generates n-ary trees in their reachability-based analysis.

Keywords: marking vector, n-vector, petri nets, reachability

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4644 Analysis of Maintenance Operations in an Industrial Bakery Line

Authors: Mehmet Savsar

Abstract:

This paper presents a practical case application of simulation modeling and analysis in a specific industrial setting. Various maintenance related parameters of the equipment in the system under consideration are determined and a simulation model is developed to study system behavior. System performance is determined based on established parameters and operational policies, which included system operation with and without preventive maintenance implementation. The results show that preventive maintenance practice has significant effects on improving system productivity. The simulation procedures outlined in this paper can be used by operation managers to perform production line analysis under different maintenance policies in various industrial settings.

Keywords: simulation, production line, machine failures, maintenance, industrial bakery

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4643 An Incremental Refinement Approach to a Development of Dynamic Host Configuration Protocol (DHCP) Using Event-B

Authors: Rajaa Filali, Mohamed Bouhdadi

Abstract:

This paper presents an incremental development of the Dynamic Host Configuration Protocol (DHCP) in Event-B. DHCP is widely used communication protocol, which provides a standard mechanism to obtain configuration parameters. The specification is performed in a stepwise manner and verified through a series of refinements. The Event-B formal method uses the Rodin platform to modeling and verifying some properties of the protocol such as safety, liveness and deadlock freedom. To model and verify the protocol, we use the formal technique Event-B which provides an accessible and rigorous development method. This interaction between modelling and proving reduces the complexity and helps to eliminate misunderstandings, inconsistencies, and specification gaps.

Keywords: DHCP protocol, Event-B, refinement, proof obligation, Rodin

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4642 Bio-Functional Polymeric Protein Based Materials Utilized for Soft Tissue Engineering Application

Authors: Er-Yuan Chuang

Abstract:

Bio-mimetic matters have biological functionalities. This might be valuable in the development of versatile biomaterials. At biological fields, protein-based materials might be components to form a 3D network of extracellular biomolecules, containing growth factors. Also, the protein-based biomaterial provides biochemical and structural assistance of adjacent cells. In this study, we try to prepare protein based biomaterial, which was harvested from living animal. We analyzed it’s chemical, physical and biological property in vitro. Besides, in vivo bio-interaction of the prepared biomimetic matrix was tested in an animal model. The protein-based biomaterial has degradability and biocompatibility. This development could be used for tissue regenerations and be served as platform technologies.

Keywords: protein based, in vitro study, in vivo study, biomaterials

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4641 Comparative Exergy Analysis of Vapor Compression Refrigeration System Using Alternative Refrigerants

Authors: Gulshan Sachdeva, Vaibhav Jain

Abstract:

In present paper, the performance of various alternative refrigerants is compared to find the substitute of R22, the widely used hydrochlorofluorocarbon refrigerant in developing countries. These include the environmentally friendly hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants such as R134A, R410A, R407C and M20. In the present study, a steady state thermodynamic model (includes both first and second law analysis) which simulates the working of an actual vapor-compression system is developed. The model predicts the performance of system with alternative refrigerants. Considering the recent trends of replacement of ozone depleting refrigerants and improvement in system efficiency, R407C is found to be potential candidate to replace R22 refrigerant in the present study.

Keywords: refrigeration, compression system, performance study, modeling, R407C

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4640 Designing a Robust Controller for a 6 Linkage Robot

Authors: G. Khamooshian

Abstract:

One of the main points of application of the mechanisms of the series and parallel is the subject of managing them. The control of this mechanism and similar mechanisms is one that has always been the intention of the scholars. On the other hand, modeling the behavior of the system is difficult due to the large number of its parameters, and it leads to complex equations that are difficult to solve and eventually difficult to control. In this paper, a six-linkage robot has been presented that could be used in different areas such as medical robots. Using these robots needs a robust control. In this paper, the system equations are first found, and then the system conversion function is written. A new controller has been designed for this robot which could be used in other parallel robots and could be very useful. Parallel robots are so important in robotics because of their stability, so methods for control of them are important and the robust controller, especially in parallel robots, makes a sense.

Keywords: 3-RRS, 6 linkage, parallel robot, control

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4639 Catalytic Study of Methanol-to-Propylene Conversion over Nano-Sized HZSM-5

Authors: Jianwen Li, Hongfang Ma, Weixin Qian, Haitao Zhang, Weiyong Ying

Abstract:

Methanol-to-propylene conversion was carried out in a continuous-flow fixed-bed reactor over nano-sized HZSM-5 zeolites. The HZSM-5 catalysts were synthesized with different Si/Al ratio and silicon sources, and treated with NaOH. The structural property, morphology, and acidity of catalysts were measured by XRD, N2 adsorption, FE-SEM, TEM, and NH3-TPD. The results indicate that the increment of Si/Al ratio decreased the acidity of catalysts and then improved propylene selectivity, while silicon sources had slight impact on the acidity but affected the product distribution. The desilication after alkali treatment could increase intracrystalline mesopores and enhance propylene selectivity.

Keywords: alkali treatment, HZSM-5, methanol-to-propylene, synthesis condition

Procedia PDF Downloads 203
4638 Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network for Rainfall-Water Level Modeling

Authors: Thohidul Islam, Md. Hamidul Haque, Robin Kumar Biswas

Abstract:

Floods are one of the deadliest natural disasters which are very complex to model; however, machine learning is opening the door for more reliable and accurate flood prediction. In this research, a multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP) is developed to model the rainfall-water level relation, in a subtropical monsoon climatic region of the Bangladesh-India border. Our experiments show promising empirical results to forecast the water level for 1 day lead time. Our best performing MLP model achieves 98.7% coefficient of determination with lower model complexity which surpasses previously reported results on similar forecasting problems.

Keywords: flood forecasting, machine learning, multilayer perceptron network, regression

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4637 Structural, Optical and Electrical Thin-Film Characterization Using Graphite-Bioepoxy Composite Materials

Authors: Anika Zafiah M. Rus, Nur Munirah Abdullah, M. F. L. Abdullah

Abstract:

The fabrication and characterization of composite films of graphite- bioepoxy is described. Free-standing thin films of ~0.1 mm thick are prepared using a simple solution mixing with mass proportion of 7/3 (bioepoxy/graphite) and drop casting at room temperature. Fourier transform infra-red spectroscopy (FTIR) and Ultraviolet-visible (UV-vis) spectrophotometer are performed to evaluate the changes in chemical structure and adsorption spectra arising with the increasing of graphite weight loading (wt.%) into the biopolymer matrix. The morphologic study shows a homogeneously dispersed and strong particle bonding between the graphite and the bioepoxy, with conductivity of the film 103 S/m, confirming the efficiency of the processes.

Keywords: absorbance peak, biopolymer, graphite- bioepoxy composites, particle bonding

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4636 Distance Protection Performance Analysis

Authors: Abdelsalam Omar

Abstract:

This paper presents simulation-based case study that indicate the need for accurate dynamic modeling of distance protection relay. In many cases, a static analysis based on current and voltage phasors may be sufficient to assess the performance of distance protection. There are several circumstances under which such a simplified study does not provide the depth of analysis necessary to obtain accurate results, however. This letter present study of the influences of magnetizing inrush and power swing on the performance of distance protection relay. One type of numerical distance protection relay has been investigated: 7SA511. The study has been performed in order to demonstrate the relay response when dynamic model of distance relay is utilized.

Keywords: distance protection, magnitizing inrush, power swing, dynamic model of protection relays, simulatio

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4635 Investigating Viscous Surface Wave Propagation Modes in a Finite Depth Fluid

Authors: Arash Ghahraman, Gyula Bene

Abstract:

The object of this study is to investigate the effect of viscosity on the propagation of free-surface waves in an incompressible viscous fluid layer of arbitrary depth. While we provide a more detailed study of properties of linear surface waves, the description of fully nonlinear waves in terms of KdV-like (Korteweg-de Vries) equations is discussed. In the linear case, we find that in shallow enough fluids, no surface waves can propagate. Even in any thicker fluid layers, propagation of very short and very long waves is forbidden. When wave propagation is possible, only a single propagating mode exists for any given horizontal wave number. The numerical results show that there can be two types of non-propagating modes. One type is always present, and there exist still infinitely many of such modes at the same parameters. In contrast, there can be zero, one or two modes belonging to the other type. Another significant feature is that KdV-like equations. They describe propagating nonlinear viscous surface waves. Since viscosity gives rise to a new wavenumber that cannot be small at the same time as the original one, these equations may not exist. Nonetheless, we propose a reasonable nonlinear description in terms of 1+1 variate functions that make possible successive approximations.

Keywords: free surface wave, water waves, KdV equation, viscosity

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4634 A Steady State Characteristics of Four-Lobe Journal Bearing Lubricated with a Couple Stress Fluids in Turbulent Flow Regime

Authors: Boualem Chetti, Samir Zahaf

Abstract:

This paper presents the steady-state performance analysis of a four-lobe journal bearing lubricated with a couple stress fluids operating in the turbulent regime, following Constantinescu’s turbulent lubrication theory. The modified Reynolds equation is solved numerically using the finite difference method taking into consideration the effects of the turbulence and the couple stress. In this analysis, the steady-state parameters in terms of the attitude angle, load carrying capacity, side leakage and friction coefficient are determined at various values of eccentricities ratio. The computed results show that the turbulence increases the load carrying capacity, the attitude angle and the friction coefficient for a journal bearing lubricated with a Newtonian or a couple stress fluids. It is found that the turbulence has strongly influence on the steady-state performances of the four-lobe journal bearing lubricated with Newtonian fluids or a couple stress fluids.

Keywords: Four-lobe journal bearings, static characteristics, couple-stress fluids, turbulent flow

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4633 Nonstationarity Modeling of Economic and Financial Time Series

Authors: C. Slim

Abstract:

Traditional techniques for analyzing time series are based on the notion of stationarity of phenomena under study, but in reality most economic and financial series do not verify this hypothesis, which implies the implementation of specific tools for the detection of such behavior. In this paper, we study nonstationary non-seasonal time series tests in a non-exhaustive manner. We formalize the problem of nonstationary processes with numerical simulations and take stock of their statistical characteristics. The theoretical aspects of some of the most common unit root tests will be discussed. We detail the specification of the tests, showing the advantages and disadvantages of each. The empirical study focuses on the application of these tests to the exchange rate (USD/TND) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tunisia, in order to compare the Power of these tests with the characteristics of the series.

Keywords: stationarity, unit root tests, economic time series, ADF tests

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4632 Synthesis, Structure and Spectroscopic Properties of Oxo-centered Carboxylate-Bridged Triiron Complexes and a Deca Ferric Wheel

Authors: K. V. Ramanaiah, R. Jagan, N. N. Murthy

Abstract:

Trinuclear oxo-centered carboxylate-bridged iron complexes, [Fe3(µ3-O)(µ2-O2CR)L¬3]+/0 (where R = alkyl or aryl; L = H2O, ROH, Py, solvent) have attracted tremendous attention because of their interesting structural and magnetic properties, exhibit mixed-valent trapped and de-trapped states, and have bioinorganic relevance. The presence of a trinuclear iron binding center has been implicated in the formation of both bacterial and human iron storage protein, Ft. They are used as precursors for the synthesis of models for the active-site structures of non-heme proteins, hemerythrin (Hr), methane monooxygenase (MMO) and polyiron storage protein, ferritin (Ft). Used as important building blocks for the design and synthesis of supramolecules this can exhibit single molecular magnetism (SMM). Such studies have often employed simple and compact carboxylate ligands and the use of bulky carboxylates is scarce. In the present study, we employed two different type of sterically hindered carboxylates and synthesized a series of novel oxo-centered, carboxylate-bridged triiron complexes of general formula [Fe3(O)(O2CCPh3)6L3]X (L = H2O, 1; py, 2; 4-NMe2py, 3; X = ClO4; L = CH3CN, 4; X = FeCl4) and [Fe3(O)(O2C-anth)6L3]X (L = H2O, 5; X = ClO4; L = CH3OH, 6; X = Cl). Along with complex [Fe(OMe)2(O2CCPh3)]10, 7 was prepared by the self-assemble of anhydrous FeCl3, sodium triphenylacetate and sodium methoxide at ratio of 1:1:2 in CH3OH. The Electronic absorption spectra of these complexes 1-6, in CH2Cl2 display weak bands at near FTIR region (970-1135 nm, ε > 15M-1cm-1). For complex 7, one broad band centered at ~670nm and also an additional intense charge transfer (L→M or O→M) bands between 300 to 550nm observed for all the complexes. Paramagnetic 1H NMR is introduced as a good probe for the characterization of trinuclear oxo - cantered iron compounds in solution when the L ligand coordinated to iron varies as: H2O, py, 4-NMe2py, and CH3OH. The solution state magnetic moment values calculated by using Evans method for all the complexes and also solid state magnetic moment value of complex, 7 was calculated by VSM method, which is comparable with solution state value. These all magnetic moment values indicate there is a spin exchange process through oxo and carboxylate bridges in between two irons (d5). The ESI-mass data complement the data obtained from single crystal X-ray structure. Further purity of the compounds was confirmed by elemental analysis. Finally, structural determination of complexes 1, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 were unambiguously conformed by single crystal x-ray studies.

Keywords: decanuclear, paramagnetic NMR, trinuclear, uv-visible

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4631 The Properties of Na2CO3 and Ti Hybrid Modified LM 6 Alloy Using Ladle Metallurgy

Authors: M. N. Ervina Efzan, H. J. Kong, C. K. Kok

Abstract:

The present work deals with a study on the influences of hybrid modifier on LM 6 added through ladle metallurgy. In this study, LM 6 served as the reference alloy while Na2CO3 and Ti powders were used as the hybrid modifier. The effects of hybrid modifier on the micro structural enhancement of LM 6 were investigated using optical microscope (OM) and Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM). The results showed fragmented Si-rich needles and strength enhanced petal/ globular-like structures without obvious formation of soft primary α-Al and β-Fe-rich inter metallic compound (IMC) after the hybrid modification. Hardness test was conducted to examine the mechanical improvement of hybrid modified LM 6. 10% of hardness improvement was recorded in the hybrid modified LM 6 through ladle metallurgy.

Keywords: Al-Si, hybrid modifier, ladle metallurgy, hardness

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4630 Studies on the Applicability of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in Prediction of Thermodynamic Behavior of Sodium Chloride Aqueous System Containing a Non-Electrolytes

Authors: Dariush Jafari, S. Mostafa Nowee

Abstract:

In this study a ternary system containing sodium chloride as solute, water as primary solvent and ethanol as the antisolvent was considered to investigate the application of artificial neural network (ANN) in prediction of sodium solubility in the mixture of water as the solvent and ethanol as the antisolvent. The system was previously studied using by Extended UNIQUAC model by the authors of this study. The comparison between the results of the two models shows an excellent agreement between them (R2=0.99), and also approves the capability of ANN to predict the thermodynamic behavior of ternary electrolyte systems which are difficult to model.

Keywords: thermodynamic modeling, ANN, solubility, ternary electrolyte system

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4629 Lee-Carter Mortality Forecasting Method with Dynamic Normal Inverse Gaussian Mortality Index

Authors: Funda Kul, İsmail Gür

Abstract:

Pension scheme providers have to price mortality risk by accurate mortality forecasting method. There are many mortality-forecasting methods constructed and used in literature. The Lee-Carter model is the first model to consider stochastic improvement trends in life expectancy. It is still precisely used. Mortality forecasting is done by mortality index in the Lee-Carter model. It is assumed that mortality index fits ARIMA time series model. In this paper, we propose and use dynamic normal inverse gaussian distribution to modeling mortality indes in the Lee-Carter model. Using population mortality data for Italy, France, and Turkey, the model is forecasting capability is investigated, and a comparative analysis with other models is ensured by some well-known benchmarking criterions.

Keywords: mortality, forecasting, lee-carter model, normal inverse gaussian distribution

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4628 PbLi Activation Due to Corrosion Products in WCLL BB (EU-DEMO) and Its Impact on Reactor Design and Recycling

Authors: Nicole Virgili, Marco Utili

Abstract:

The design of the Breeding Blanket in Tokamak fusion energy systems has to guarantee sufficient availability in addition to its functions, that are, tritium breeding self-sufficiency, power extraction and shielding (the magnets and the VV). All these function in the presence of extremely harsh operating conditions in terms of heat flux and neutron dose as well as chemical environment of the coolant and breeder that challenge structural materials (structural resistance and corrosion resistance). The movement and activation of fluids from the BB to the Ex-vessel components in a fusion power plant have an important radiological consideration because flowing material can carry radioactivity to safety-critical areas. This includes gamma-ray emission from activated fluid and activated corrosion products, and secondary activation resulting from neutron emission, with implication for the safety of maintenance personnel and damage to electrical and electronic equipment. In addition to the PbLi breeder activation, it is important to evaluate the contribution due to the activated corrosion products (ACPs) dissolved in the lead-lithium eutectic alloy, at different concentration levels. Therefore, the purpose of the study project is to evaluate the PbLi activity utilizing the FISPACT II inventory code. Emphasis is given on how the design of the EU-DEMO WCLL, and potential recycling of the breeder material will be impacted by the activation of PbLi and the associated active corrosion products (ACPs). For this scope the following Computational Tools, Data and Geometry have been considered: • Neutron source: EU-DEMO neutron flux < 1014/cm2/s • Neutron flux distribution in equatorial breeding blanket module (BBM) #13 in the WCLL BB outboard central zone, which is the most activated zone, with the aim to introduce a conservative component utilizing MNCP6. • The recommended geometry model: 2017 EU DEMO CAD model. • Blanket Module Material Specifications (Composition) • Activation calculations for different ACP concentration levels in the PbLi breeder, with a given chemistry in stationary equilibrium conditions, using FISPACT II code. Results suggest that there should be a waiting time of about 10 years from the shut-down (SD) to be able to safely manipulate the PbLi for recycling operations with simple shielding requirements. The dose rate is mainly given by the PbLi and the ACP concentration (x1 or x 100) does not shift the result. In conclusion, the results show that there is no impact on PbLi activation due to ACPs levels.

Keywords: activation, corrosion products, recycling, WCLL BB., PbLi

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4627 Evaluation of Cyclic Thermo-Mechanical Responses of an Industrial Gas Turbine Rotor

Authors: Y. Rae, A. Benaarbia, J. Hughes, Wei Sun

Abstract:

This paper describes an elasto-visco-plastic computational modelling method which can be used to assess the cyclic plasticity responses of high temperature structures operating under thermo-mechanical loadings. The material constitutive equation used is an improved unified multi-axial Chaboche-Lemaitre model, which takes into account non-linear kinematic and isotropic hardening. The computational methodology is a three-dimensional framework following an implicit formulation and based on a radial return mapping algorithm. The associated user material (UMAT) code is developed and calibrated across isothermal hold-time low cycle fatigue tests for a typical turbine rotor steel for use in finite element (FE) implementation. The model is applied to a realistic industrial gas turbine rotor, where the study focuses its attention on the deformation heterogeneities and critical high stress areas within the rotor structure. The potential improvements of such FE visco-plastic approach are discussed. An integrated life assessment procedure based on R5 and visco-plasticity modelling, is also briefly addressed.

Keywords: unified visco-plasticity, thermo-mechanical, turbine rotor, finite element modelling

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4626 Study of Transport in Electronic Devices with Stochastic Monte Carlo Method: Modeling and Simulation along with Submicron Gate (Lg=0.5um)

Authors: N. Massoum, B. Bouazza

Abstract:

In this paper, we have developed a numerical simulation model to describe the electrical properties of GaInP MESFET with submicron gate (Lg = 0.5 µm). This model takes into account the three-dimensional (3D) distribution of the load in the short channel and the law effect of mobility as a function of electric field. Simulation software based on a stochastic method such as Monte Carlo has been established. The results are discussed and compared with those of the experiment. The result suggests experimentally that, in a very small gate length in our devices (smaller than 40 nm), short-channel tunneling explains the degradation of transistor performance, which was previously enhanced by velocity overshoot.

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, transient electron transport, MESFET device, simulation software

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4625 Nonlinear Mathematical Model of the Rotor Motion in a Thin Hydrodynamic Gap

Authors: Jaroslav Krutil, Simona Fialová, , František Pochylý

Abstract:

A nonlinear mathematical model of mutual fluid-structure interaction is presented in the work. The model is applicable to the general shape of sealing gaps. An in compressible fluid and turbulent flow is assumed. The shaft carries a rotational and procession motion, the gap is axially flowed through. The achieved results of the additional mass, damping and stiffness matrices may be used in the solution of the rotor dynamics. The usage of this mathematical model is expected particularly in hydraulic machines. The method of control volumes in the ANSYS Fluent was used for the simulation. The obtained results of the pressure and velocity fields are used in the mathematical model of additional effects.

Keywords: nonlinear mathematical model, CFD modeling, hydrodynamic sealing gap, matrices of mass, stiffness, damping

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4624 Model-Driven and Data-Driven Approaches for Crop Yield Prediction: Analysis and Comparison

Authors: Xiangtuo Chen, Paul-Henry Cournéde

Abstract:

Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records. The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem. An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations). It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict requirements about the dataset. A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression). The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP), mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the crop prediction capacity. The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach (MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives. The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is to combine these two types of approaches.

Keywords: crop yield prediction, crop model, sensitivity analysis, paramater estimation, particle swarm optimization, random forest

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