Search results for: risk factor prevention paradigm
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 12112

Search results for: risk factor prevention paradigm

8242 Construction Unit Rate Factor Modelling Using Neural Networks

Authors: Balimu Mwiya, Mundia Muya, Chabota Kaliba, Peter Mukalula

Abstract:

Factors affecting construction unit cost vary depending on a country’s political, economic, social and technological inclinations. Factors affecting construction costs have been studied from various perspectives. Analysis of cost factors requires an appreciation of a country’s practices. Identified cost factors provide an indication of a country’s construction economic strata. The purpose of this paper is to identify the essential factors that affect unit cost estimation and their breakdown using artificial neural networks. Twenty-five (25) identified cost factors in road construction were subjected to a questionnaire survey and employing SPSS factor analysis the factors were reduced to eight. The 8 factors were analysed using the neural network (NN) to determine the proportionate breakdown of the cost factors in a given construction unit rate. NN predicted that political environment accounted 44% of the unit rate followed by contractor capacity at 22% and financial delays, project feasibility, overhead and profit each at 11%. Project location, material availability and corruption perception index had minimal impact on the unit cost from the training data provided. Quantified cost factors can be incorporated in unit cost estimation models (UCEM) to produce more accurate estimates. This can create improvements in the cost estimation of infrastructure projects and establish a benchmark standard to assist the process of alignment of work practises and training of new staff, permitting the on-going development of best practises in cost estimation to become more effective.

Keywords: construction cost factors, neural networks, roadworks, Zambian construction industry

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8241 Identifying and Ranking Environmental Risks of Oil and Gas Projects Using the VIKOR Method for Multi-Criteria Decision Making

Authors: Sasan Aryaee, Mahdi Ravanshadnia

Abstract:

Naturally, any activity is associated with risk, and humans have understood this concept from very long times ago and seek to identify its factors and sources. On the one hand, proper risk management can cause problems such as delays and unforeseen costs in the development projects, temporary or permanent loss of services, getting lost or information theft, complexity and limitations in processes, unreliable information caused by rework, holes in the systems and many such problems. In the present study, a model has been presented to rank the environmental risks of oil and gas projects. The statistical population of the study consists of all executives active in the oil and gas fields, that the statistical sample is selected randomly. In the framework of the proposed method, environmental risks of oil and gas projects were first extracted, then a questionnaire based on these indicators was designed based on Likert scale and distributed among the statistical sample. After assessing the validity and reliability of the questionnaire, environmental risks of oil and gas projects were ranked using the VIKOR method of multiple-criteria decision-making. The results showed that the best options for HSE planning of oil and gas projects that caused the reduction of risks and personal injury and casualties and less than other options is costly for the project and it will add less time to the duration of implementing the project is the entering of dye to the environment when painting the generator pond and the presence of the rigger near the crane.

Keywords: ranking, multi-criteria decision making, oil and gas projects, HSEmanagement, environmental risks

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8240 Identifying Neighborhoods at Potential Risk of Food Insecurity in Rural British Columbia

Authors: Amirmohsen Behjat, Aleck Ostry, Christina Miewald, Bernie Pauly

Abstract:

Substantial research has indicated that socioeconomic and demographic characteristics’ of neighborhoods are strong determinants of food security. The aim of this study was to develop a Food Insecurity Neighborhood Index (FINI) based on the associated socioeconomic and demographic variables to identify the areas at potential risk of food insecurity in rural British Columbia (BC). Principle Component Analysis (PCA) technique was used to calculate the FINI for each rural Dissemination Area (DA) using the food security determinant variables from Canadian Census data. Using ArcGIS, the neighborhoods with the top quartile FINI values were classified as food insecure. The results of this study indicated that the most food insecure neighborhood with the highest FINI value of 99.1 was in the Bulkley-Nechako (central BC) area whereas the lowest FINI with the value of 2.97 was for a rural neighborhood in the Cowichan Valley area. In total, 98.049 (19%) of the rural population of British Columbians reside in high food insecure areas. Moreover, the distribution of food insecure neighborhoods was found to be strongly dependent on the degree of rurality in BC. In conclusion, the cluster of food insecure neighbourhoods was more pronounced in Central Coast, Mount Wadington, Peace River, Kootenay Boundary, and the Alberni-Clayoqout Regional Districts.

Keywords: neighborhood food insecurity index, socioeconomic and demographic determinants, principal component analysis, Canada census, ArcGIS

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8239 Thinking in a Foreign Language Overcomes the Developmental Reversal in Risky Decision-Making: The Foreign Language Effect in Risky Decision-Making

Authors: Rendong Cai, Bei Peng, Yanping Dong

Abstract:

In risk decision making, individuals are found to be susceptible to 'frames': people tend to be risk averse when the choice is described in terms of potential 'gains' (gain frame), whereas they tend to be risk seeking when the same choice is described in terms of potential 'losses' (loss frame); this effect is termed the framing effect. The framing effect has been well documented and some studies even find a developmental reversal in the framing effect: The more experience an individual has in a certain field, the easier for him to be influenced by the frame relevant to the field, resulting in greater decision inconsistency. Recent studies reported that using a foreign language can reduce the framing effect. However, it is not clear whether foreign language use can overcome the developmental reversal in the framing effect. The present study investigated three potential factors that may influence the developmental reversal in the framing effect: specialized knowledge of the participants, the language in which the problem is presented, and the types of problems. The present study examined the decision making behavior of 188 Chinese-English bilinguals who majored in Finance, with a group of 277 English majors as the control group. They were asked to solve a financial problem (experimental condition) and a life problem (control condition). Each problem was presented in one of the following four versions: native language-gain frame, foreign language-gain frame, native language-loss frame, and foreign language-loss frame. Results revealed that for the life problem, under the native condition, both groups were affected by the frame; but under the foreign condition, this framing effect disappeared for the financial majors. This confirmed that foreign language use modulates framing effects in general decision making, which served as an effective baseline. For the financial problem, under the native condition, only the financial major was observed to be influenced by the frame, which was a developmental reversal; under the foreign condition, however, this framing effect disappeared. The results provide further empirical evidence for the universal of the developmental reversal in risky decision making. More importantly, the results suggest that using a foreign language can overcome such reversal, which has implications for the reduction of decision biases in professionals. The findings also shed new light on the complex interaction between general decision-making and bilingualism.

Keywords: the foreign language effect, developmental reversals, the framing effect, bilingualism

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8238 Focus on the Bactericidal Efficacies of Alkaline Agents in Solid and the Required Time for Bacterial Inactivation

Authors: Hakimullah Hakim, Chiharu Toyofuku, Mari Ota, Mayuko Suzuki, Miyuki Komura, Masashi Yamada, Md. Shahin Alam, Natthanan Sangsriratanakul, Dany Shoham, Kazuaki Takehara

Abstract:

Disinfectants and their application are essential part of infection control strategies and enhancement of biosecurity at farms, worldwide. Alkaline agents are well known for their strong and long term antimicrobial capacities and most frequently are applied at farms for control and prevention of biological hazards. However, inadequate information regarding such materials’ capacities to inactivate pathogens and their improper applications fail farmers to achieve the mentioned goal. Thus, this requires attention to further evaluate their efficacies, under different conditions and in different ways. Here in this study we evaluated bactericidal efficacies of food additive grade of calcium hydroxide (FdCa(OH)2) powder derived from natural calcium carbonates obtained from limestone (Fine Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan), and bioceramic powder (BCX) derived from chicken feces at pH 13 (NMG environmental development Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan), for their efficacies to inactivate bacteria in feces. [Materials & Methods] Chicken feces were inoculated by 100 µl Escherichia coli and Salmonella Infantis in falcon tubes, individually, then FdCa(OH)2 or BCX powders were individually added to make final concentration of 0, 5, 10, 20 and 30% (w/w) in total weight of 0.5g, followed by properly mixing and incubating at room temperature for certain periods of time, in a dark place. Afterwards, 10 ml 1M Tris-HCl (pH 7.2) was added onto them to reduce their pH, in order to stop powders’ activities and to harvest the remained viable bacteria, whereas using normal medium or dW2 to recover bacteria increases the mixture pH, and as a result bacteria would be inactivated soon; therefore, the latter practice brings about incorrect and misleading results. Samples were then inoculated on DHL agar plates in order to calculate colony forming units (CFU)/ml of viable bacteria. [Results and Discussion] FdCa(OH)2 powder at 10% and 5% required 3 hr and 6 hr exposure times, respectively, while BCX powder at 20% concentrations required 6 hr exposure time to kill the mentioned bacteria in feces down to lower than detectable level (≤ 3.6 log10 CFU/ml). This study confirmed capacities of FdCa(OH)2 and BCX powders to inactivate bacteria in feces, and both materials are environment friendly materials, with no risk to human or animal’s health. This finding helps farmers to properly apply alkaline agents in appropriate concentrations and exposure times in their farms, in order to prevent and control infectious diseases outbreaks and to enhance biosecurity. Finally, this finding may help farmers to implement better strategies for infections control in their livestock farms.

Keywords: bacterial inactivation, bioceramic, biosecurity at livestock farms, chicken feces

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8237 Prognostic Value of C-Reactive Protein (CRP) in SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Simplified Biomarker of COVID-19 Severity in Sub-Saharan Africa

Authors: Teklay Gebrecherkos, Mahmud Abdulkader, Tobias Rinke De Wit, Britta C. Urban, Feyissa Chala, Yazezew Kebede, Dawit Welday

Abstract:

Background: C-reactive protein (CRP) levels are a reliable surrogate for interleukin-6 bioactivity that plays a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of cytokine storm associated with severe COVID-19. There is a lack of data on the role of CRP as a determinant of COVID-19 severity status in the African context. Methods: We determined the longitudinal kinetics of CRP levels on 78 RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients (49 non-severe and 29 severe cases) and 50 PCR-negative controls. Results: COVID-19 patients had overall significantly elevated CRP at baseline when compared to PCR-negative controls [median 11.1 (IQR: 2.0-127.8) mg/L vs. 0.9 (IQR: 0.5-1.9) mg/L; p=0.0004)]. Moreover, severe COVID-19 patients had significantly higher median CRP levels than non-severe cases [166.1 (IQR: 48.6-332.5) mg/L vs. 2.4 (IQR: 1.2-7.6) mg/L; p<0.00001)]. In addition, persistently elevated levels of CRP were exhibited among those with comorbidities and higher age groups. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis of CRP levels distinguished PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients from the ones with PCR-negative non-COVID-19 individuals, with an AUC value of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.68-0.84; p=0.001). Moreover, it clearly distinguished severe from non-severe COVID-19 patients, with an AUC value of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.73-0.91). After adjusting for age and the presence of comorbidities, CRP levels above 30 mg/L were significantly associated with an increased risk of developing severe COVID-19 (adjusted relative risk 3.99 (95%CI: 1.35-11.82; p=0.013). Conclusions: Determining CRP levels in COVID-19 patients in African settings may provide a simple, prompt, and inexpensive assessment of the severity status at baseline and monitoring of treatment outcomes.

Keywords: CRP, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, biomarker

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8236 Optimal Data Selection in Non-Ergodic Systems: A Tradeoff between Estimator Convergence and Representativeness Errors

Authors: Jakob Krause

Abstract:

Past Financial Crisis has shown that contemporary risk management models provide an unjustified sense of security and fail miserably in situations in which they are needed the most. In this paper, we start from the assumption that risk is a notion that changes over time and therefore past data points only have limited explanatory power for the current situation. Our objective is to derive the optimal amount of representative information by optimizing between the two adverse forces of estimator convergence, incentivizing us to use as much data as possible, and the aforementioned non-representativeness doing the opposite. In this endeavor, the cornerstone assumption of having access to identically distributed random variables is weakened and substituted by the assumption that the law of the data generating process changes over time. Hence, in this paper, we give a quantitative theory on how to perform statistical analysis in non-ergodic systems. As an application, we discuss the impact of a paragraph in the last iteration of proposals by the Basel Committee on Banking Regulation. We start from the premise that the severity of assumptions should correspond to the robustness of the system they describe. Hence, in the formal description of physical systems, the level of assumptions can be much higher. It follows that every concept that is carried over from the natural sciences to economics must be checked for its plausibility in the new surroundings. Most of the probability theory has been developed for the analysis of physical systems and is based on the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) assumption. In Economics both parts of the i.i.d. assumption are inappropriate. However, only dependence has, so far, been weakened to a sufficient degree. In this paper, an appropriate class of non-stationary processes is used, and their law is tied to a formal object measuring representativeness. Subsequently, that data set is identified that on average minimizes the estimation error stemming from both, insufficient and non-representative, data. Applications are far reaching in a variety of fields. In the paper itself, we apply the results in order to analyze a paragraph in the Basel 3 framework on banking regulation with severe implications on financial stability. Beyond the realm of finance, other potential applications include the reproducibility crisis in the social sciences (but not in the natural sciences) and modeling limited understanding and learning behavior in economics.

Keywords: banking regulation, non-ergodicity, risk management, semimartingale modeling

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8235 Assessment of Interior Environmental Quality and Airborne Infectious Risk in a Commuter Bus Cabin by Using Computational Fluid Dynamics with Computer Simulated Person

Authors: Yutaro Kyuma, Sung-Jun Yoo, Kazuhide Ito

Abstract:

A commuter bus remains important as a means to network public transportation between railway stations and terminals within cities. In some cases, the boarding time becomes longer, and the boarding rate tends to be higher corresponding to the development of urban cities. The interior environmental quality, e.g. temperature and air quality, in a commuter bus is relatively heterogeneous and complex compared to that of an indoor environment in buildings due to several factors: solar radiative heat – which comes from large-area windows –, inadequate ventilation rate caused by high density of commuters, and metabolic heat generation from travelers themselves. In addition to this, under conditions where many passengers ride in the enclosed space, contact and airborne infectious risk have attracted considerable attention in terms of public health. From this point of view, it is essential to develop the prediction method for assessment of interior environmental quality and infection risk in commuter bus cabins. In this study, we developed a numerical commuter bus model integrated with computer simulated persons to reproduce realistic indoor environment conditions with high occupancy during commuting. Here, computer simulated persons were newly designed considering different types of geometries, e.g., standing position, seating position, and individual differences. Here we conducted coupled computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis with radiative heat transfer analysis under steady state condition. Distributions of heterogeneous air flow patterns, temperature, and moisture surrounding the human body under some different ventilation system were analyzed by using CFD technique, and skin surface temperature distributions were analyzed using thermoregulation model that integrated into computer simulated person. Through these analyses, we discussed the interior environmental quality in specific commuter bus cabins. Further, inhaled air quality of each passenger was also analyzed. This study may have possibility to design the ventilation system in bus for improving thermal comfort of occupants.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, CFD, computer simulated person, CSP, contaminant, indoor environment, public health, ventilation

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8234 Sexual Violence against Men in Conflicts: A Neglected Serious Issue

Authors: Olalekan Olaluwoye, Joanne Williams, Elizabeth Hoban, Sonia Brockington

Abstract:

Cases of sexual violence against men have been reported in at least twenty-five conflict situations in history. However, there is a paucity of academic literature and minimal media, policy and legal discussions on sexual violence against men. Most studies and discussions remain locked in the ‘male perpetrators, female victims’ paradigm. Male victims continue to suffer the consequences of sexual violence in conflict and post-conflict settings in silence. A rigorous narrative systematic review of the literature revealed few studies on the subject and those that exist have a narrow focus on rape as the only form of sexual violence despite the existence of other forms of sexual violence that have equally devastating effects. This paper argues that while research and discussions on sexual violence against women should continue, it is time to conduct rigorous mixed methods research to understand the experiences of men and boys survivors of sexual violence. There is a need to study sexual violence more broadly, without limiting it to rape, and to understand the determinants and health implications of sexual violence perpetrated on men. The paper concludes by proposing a research approach that gives voice to the experiences of male survivors of sexual violence in conflict and post-conflict settings.

Keywords: conflict, male survivors, post-conflict settings, sexual violence

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8233 Socioeconomic Status and Mortality in Older People with Angina: A Population-Based Cohort Study in China

Authors: Weiju Zhou, Alex Hopkins, Ruoling Chen

Abstract:

Background: China has increased the gap in income between richer and poorer over the past 40 years, and the number of deaths from people with angina has been rising. It is unclear whether socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with increased mortality in older people with angina. Methods: Data from a cohort study of 2,380 participants aged ≥ 65 years, who were randomly recruited from 5-province urban communities were examined in China. The cohort members were interviewed to record socio-demographic and risk factors and document doctor-diagnosed angina at baseline and were followed them up in 3-10 years, including monitoring vital status. Multivariate Cox regression models were employed to examine all-cause mortality in relation to low SES. Results: The cohort follow-up identified 373 deaths occurred; 41 deaths in 208 angina patients. Compared to participants without angina (n=2,172), patients with angina had increased mortality (multivariate adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 1.41, 95% CI 1.01-1.97). Within angina patients, the risk of mortality increased with low satisfactory income (2.51, 1.08-5.85) and having financial problem (4.00, 1.07-15.00), but significantly with levels of education and occupation. In non-angina participants, none of these four SES indicators were associated with mortality. There was a significant interaction effect between angina and low satisfactory income on mortality. Conclusions: In China, having low income and financial problem increase mortality in older people with angina. Strategies to improve economic circumstances in older people could help reduce inequality in angina survival.

Keywords: angina, mortality, older people, socio-economic status

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8232 Fossil Health: Causes and Consequences of Hegemonic Health Paradigms

Authors: Laila Vivas

Abstract:

Fossil Health is proposed as a value-concept to describe the hegemonic health paradigms that underpin health enactment. Such representation is justified by Foucaldian and related ideas on biopower and biosocialities, calling for the politicization of health and signalling the importance of narratives. This approach, hence, enables contemplating health paradigms as reflexive or co-constitutive of health itself or, in other words, conceiving health as a verb. Fossil health is a symbolic representation, influenced by Andreas Malm’s concept of fossil capitalism, that integrates environment and health as non-dichotomic areas. Fossil Health sustains that current notions of human and non-human health revolve around fossil fuel dependencies. Moreover, addressing disequilibria from established health ideals involves fossil-fixes. Fossil Health, therefore, represents causes and consequences of a health conception that has the agency to contribute to the functioning of a particular structural eco-social model. Moreover, within current capitalist relations, Fossil Health expands its meaning to cover not only fossil implications but also other dominant paradigms of the capitalist system that are (re)produced through health paradigms, such as the burgeoning of technoscience and biomedicalization, privatization of health, expertization of health, or the imposing of standards of uniformity. Overall, Fossil Health is a comprehensive approach to environment and health, where understanding hegemonic health paradigms means understanding our (human-non-human) nature paradigms and the structuring effect these narratives convey.

Keywords: fossil health, environment, paradigm, capitalism

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8231 Pseudo Modal Operating Deflection Shape Based Estimation Technique of Mode Shape Using Time History Modal Assurance Criterion

Authors: Doyoung Kim, Hyo Seon Park

Abstract:

Studies of System Identification(SI) based on Structural Health Monitoring(SHM) have actively conducted for structural safety. Recently SI techniques have been rapidly developed with output-only SI paradigm for estimating modal parameters. The features of these output-only SI methods consist of Frequency Domain Decomposition(FDD) and Stochastic Subspace Identification(SSI) are using the algorithms based on orthogonal decomposition such as singular value decomposition(SVD). But the SVD leads to high level of computational complexity to estimate modal parameters. This paper proposes the technique to estimate mode shape with lower computational cost. This technique shows pseudo modal Operating Deflections Shape(ODS) through bandpass filter and suggests time history Modal Assurance Criterion(MAC). Finally, mode shape could be estimated from pseudo modal ODS and time history MAC. Analytical simulations of vibration measurement were performed and the results with mode shape and computation time between representative SI method and proposed method were compared.

Keywords: modal assurance criterion, mode shape, operating deflection shape, system identification

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8230 Applying the Underwriting Technique to Analyze and Mitigate the Credit Risks in Construction Project Management

Authors: Hai Chien Pham, Thi Phuong Anh Vo, Chansik Park

Abstract:

Risks management in construction projects is important to ensure the positive feasibility of the projects in which financial risks are most concerned while construction projects always run on a credit basis. Credit risks, therefore, require unique and technical tools to be well managed. Underwriting technique in credit risks, in its most basic sense, refers to the process of evaluating the risks and the potential exposure of losses. Risks analysis and underwriting are applied as a must in banks and financial institutions who are supporters for constructions projects when required. Recently, construction organizations, especially contractors, have recognized the significant increasing of credit risks which caused negative impacts to project performance and profit of construction firms. Despite the successful application of underwriting in banks and financial institutions for many years, there are few contractors who are applying this technique to analyze and mitigate the credit risks of their potential owners before signing contracts with them for delivering their performed services. Thus, contractors have taken credit risks during project implementation which might be not materialized due to the bankruptcy and/or protracted default made by their owners. With this regard, this study proposes a model using the underwriting technique for contractors to analyze and assess credit risks of their owners before making final decisions for the potential construction contracts. Contractor’s underwriters are able to analyze and evaluate the subjects such as owner, country, sector, payment terms, financial figures and their related concerns of the credit limit requests in details based on reliable information sources, and then input into the proposed model to have the Overall Assessment Score (OAS). The OAS is as a benchmark for the decision makers to grant the proper limits for the project. The proposed underwriting model is validated by 30 subjects in Asia Pacific region within 5 years to achieve their OAS, and then compare output OAS with their own practical performance in order to evaluate the potential of underwriting model for analyzing and assessing credit risks. The results revealed that the underwriting would be a powerful method to assist contractors in making precise decisions. The contribution of this research is to allow the contractors firstly to develop their own credit risk management model for proactively preventing the credit risks of construction projects and continuously improve and enhance the performance of this function during project implementation.

Keywords: underwriting technique, credit risk, risk management, construction project

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8229 Early-Age Cracking of Low Carbon Concrete Incorporating Ferronickel Slag as Supplementary Cementitious Material

Authors: Mohammad Khan, Arnaud Castel

Abstract:

Concrete viscoelastic properties such as shrinkage, creep, and associated relaxation are important in assessing the risk of cracking during the first few days after placement. This paper investigates the early-age mechanical and viscoelastic properties, restrained shrinkage-induced cracking and time to cracking of concrete incorporating ferronickel slag (FNS) as supplementary cementitious material. Compressive strength, indirect tensile strength and elastic modulus were measured. Tensile creep and drying shrinkage was measured on dog-bone shaped specimens. Restrained shrinkage induced stresses and concrete cracking age were assessed by using the ring test. Results revealed that early-age strength development of FNS blended concrete is lower than that of the corresponding ordinary Portland cement (OPC) concrete. FNS blended concrete showed significantly higher tensile creep. The risk of early-age cracking for the restrained specimens depends on the development of concrete tensile stress considering both restrained shrinkage and tensile creep and the development of the tensile strength. FNS blended concrete showed only 20% reduction in time to cracking compared to reference OPC concrete, and this reduction is significantly lower compared to fly ash and ground granulated blast furnace slag blended concretes at similar replacement level.

Keywords: ferronickel slag, restraint shrinkage, tensile creep, time to cracking

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8228 The Behavior of Steel, Copper, and Aluminum vis-à-vis the Corrosion in an Aqueous Medium

Authors: Harche Rima, Laoufi Nadia Aicha

Abstract:

The present work consists of studying the behavior of steel, copper, and aluminum vis-à-vis the corrosion in an aqueous medium in the presence of the antifreeze COOLELF MDX -26°C. For this, we have studied the influence of the temperature and the different concentrations of the antifreeze on the corrosion of these three metals, this will last for two months by the polarization method and weight loss. In the end, we investigated the samples with the optic microscope to know their surface state. The aim of this work is the protection of contraptions. The use of antifreeze in ordinary water has a high efficiency against steel corrosion, as demonstrated by electrochemical tests (potential monitoring as a function of time and tracing polarization curves). The inhibition rate is greater than 99% for different volume concentrations, ranging from 40% to 60%. The speeds are in turn low in the order of 10-4 mm/year. On the other hand, the addition of antifreeze to ordinary water increases the corrosion potential of steel by more than 400 mV.

Keywords: corrosion and prevention, steel, copper, aluminum, corrosion inhibitor, anti-cooling

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8227 Development and Control of Deep Seated Gravitational Slope Deformation: The Case of Colzate-Vertova Landslide, Bergamo, Northern Italy

Authors: Paola Comella, Vincenzo Francani, Paola Gattinoni

Abstract:

This paper presents the Colzate-Vertova landslide, a Deep Seated Gravitational Slope Deformation (DSGSD) located in the Seriana Valley, Northern Italy. The paper aims at describing the development as well as evaluating the factors that influence the evolution of the landslide. After defining the conceptual model of the landslide, numerical simulations were developed using a finite element numerical model, first with a two-dimensional domain, and later with a three-dimensional one. The results of the 2-D model showed a displacement field typical of a sackung, as a consequence of the erosion along the Seriana Valley. The analysis also showed that the groundwater flow could locally affect the slope stability, bringing about a reduction in the safety factor, but without reaching failure conditions. The sensitivity analysis carried out on the strength parameters pointed out that slope failures could be reached only for relevant reduction of the geotechnical characteristics. Such a result does not fit the real conditions observed on site, where a number of small failures often develop all along the hillslope. The 3-D model gave a more comprehensive analysis of the evolution of the DSGSD, also considering the border effects. The results showed that the convex profile of the slope favors the development of displacements along the lateral valley, with a relevant reduction in the safety factor, justifying the existing landslides.

Keywords: deep seated gravitational slope deformation, Italy, landslide, numerical modeling

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8226 Design and Implementation of Remote Application Virtualization in Cloud Environments

Authors: Shuen-Tai Wang, Ying-Chuan Chen, Hsi-Ya Chang

Abstract:

Cloud computing is a paradigm of computing that shifts the way computing has been done in the past. The users can use cloud resources such as application software or storage space from the cloud without needing to own them. This paper is focused on solutions that are anticipated to introduce IaaS idea to build cloud base services and enable the individual remote user's applications in cloud environments, which appear as if they are running on the end user's local computer. The available features of application delivery solution have been developed based on our previous research on the virtualization technology to offer applications independent of location so that the users can work online, offline, anywhere, with appropriate device and at any time. This proposed effort has the potential to positively provide an efficient, resilience and elastic environment for cloud service. Users no longer need to burden the system managers and drastically reduces the overall cost of hardware and software licenses. Moreover, this flexible remote application virtualization service represents the next significant step to the mobile workplace, and it lets users access their applications remotely through cloud services anywhere. This is also made possible by the low administrative costs as well as relatively inexpensive end-user terminals and reduced energy expenses.

Keywords: cloud computing, IaaS, virtualization, application delivery

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8225 Cash Management in a Cashless Economy of a Developing Nation, Problems and Prospects: Nigeria a Case Study

Authors: Ossai Paulinus Edwin

Abstract:

Cash Management is a broad area having to do with the collection, concentration and disbursement of cash including measuring the level of liquidity and managing the cash balance and Short-Term Investments. Cash Management involves the efficient collection and disbursement of cash and cash equivalents. It also includes management of marketable securities because, in modern Terminology, money comprises marketable securities and actual cash in hand or in a bank. This cash management is concerned with management of cash inflow and cash outflow of a business especially as it concerns a developing nation like Nigeria. The paper throws light on the impact of cashless policy in Nigeria as it was introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in December 2011 and was kick started in Lagos in January 2012. Survey research was adopted with the questionnaires as data collection instrument. Responses show that cashless policy if adopted generally shall increase employment opportunities, reduce cash related robbery thereby reducing risk of carrying cash; it shall also reduce cash related corruption and attract more foreign investors to the country. It is expected that the introduction of cashless policy in Nigeria is a step in the right direction as it shall bring about modernization of Nigeria payment system, reduction in the cost of banking services, reduction in high security and safety risk and also curb banking related corruptions.

Keywords: cashless economy, cash management, cashless policy, e-banking, Nigeria

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8224 Patients’ Rights: An Enquiry into the Activities of Local Psychiatric Centers Managed by Muslims in South-West Nigeria

Authors: Shaykh-Luqman Jimoh

Abstract:

In Nigeria, aside the eight Government hospitals designated Psychiatric hospitals, there are also many local psychiatric centers managed by muslims and non-muslim individuals. These centers have been heavily criticized for human right abuses. This study is an inquiry into the truth or otherwise of the criticism. The study focuses on the activities of local centers managed by muslim individuals in South-West Nigeria with a view to determining the extent they uphold or violate their patients’ fundamental human rights as guaranteed by Islam. Information about the activities of the centers were collected through oral interviews. Both descriptive and analytical methods were used in the study. The study revealed that while there are some activities of the local centers managed by muslims in the study area that could be regarded as outright violation of patients’ fundamental human rights, some others, in view of the rationale behind them, may not necessarily constitute outright violation of the patients’ fundamental human rights as hitherto painted except where excesses are committed. The study therefore, using Islamic paradigm, suggests general measures that could be taken to improve on the activities of the centers.

Keywords: local psychiatric centers, muslim exorcists, patients’ rights, South-West Nigeria

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8223 The Comparison of Chromium Ions Release for Stainless Steel between Artificial Saliva and Breadfruit Leaf Extracts

Authors: Mirna Febriani

Abstract:

The use of stainless steel wires in the field of dentistry is widely used, especially for orthodontic and prosthodontic treatment using stainless steel wire. The oral cavity is the ideal environment for corrosion, which can be caused by saliva. Prevention of corrosion on stainless steel wires can be done by using an organic or non-organic corrosion inhibitor. One of the organic inhibitors that can be used to prevent corrosion is the leaves of breadfruit. The method used for this research using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometric test. The results showed that the difference of chromium ion releases on soaking in saliva and breadfruit leaf extracts on days 1, 3, 7 and 14. Statically calculation with independent T-test with p < 0,05 showed the significant difference. The conclusion of this study shows that breadfruit leaf extract can inhibit the corrosion rate of stainless steel wires.

Keywords: chromium ion, stainless steel, artificial saliva, breadfruit leaf

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8222 An Optimal Steganalysis Based Approach for Embedding Information in Image Cover Media with Security

Authors: Ahlem Fatnassi, Hamza Gharsellaoui, Sadok Bouamama

Abstract:

This paper deals with the study of interest in the fields of Steganography and Steganalysis. Steganography involves hiding information in a cover media to obtain the stego media in such a way that the cover media is perceived not to have any embedded message for its unintended recipients. Steganalysis is the mechanism of detecting the presence of hidden information in the stego media and it can lead to the prevention of disastrous security incidents. In this paper, we provide a critical review of the steganalysis algorithms available to analyze the characteristics of an image stego media against the corresponding cover media and understand the process of embedding the information and its detection. We anticipate that this paper can also give a clear picture of the current trends in steganography so that we can develop and improvise appropriate steganalysis algorithms.

Keywords: optimization, heuristics and metaheuristics algorithms, embedded systems, low-power consumption, steganalysis heuristic approach

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8221 Corporate Governance in Africa: A Review of Literature

Authors: Kisanga Arsene

Abstract:

The abundant literature on corporate governance identifies four main objectives: the configuration of power within firms, control, conflict prevention and the equitable distribution of value created. The persistent dysfunctions in companies in developing countries in general and in African countries, in particular, show that these objectives are generally not achieved, which supports the idea of analyzing corporate governance practices in Africa. Indeed, the objective of this paper is to review the literature on corporate governance in Africa, to outline the specific practices and challenges of corporate governance in Africa and to identify reliable indicators and variables to capture corporate governance in Africa. In light of the existing literature, we argue that corporate governance in Africa can only be studied in the light of African realities and by taking into account the institutional environment. These studies show the existence of a divide between governance practices and the legislative and regulatory texts in force in the African context.

Keywords: institutional environment, transparency, accountability, Africa

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8220 A Process of Forming a Single Competitive Factor in the Digital Camera Industry

Authors: Kiyohiro Yamazaki

Abstract:

This paper considers a forming process of a single competitive factor in the digital camera industry from the viewpoint of product platform. To make product development easier for companies and to increase product introduction ratios, development efforts concentrate on improving and strengthening certain product attributes, and it is born in the process that the product platform is formed continuously. It is pointed out that the formation of this product platform raises product development efficiency of individual companies, but on the other hand, it has a trade-off relationship of causing unification of competitive factors in the whole industry. This research tries to analyze product specification data which were collected from the web page of digital camera companies. Specifically, this research collected all product specification data released in Japan from 1995 to 2003 and analyzed the composition of image sensor and optical lens; and it identified product platforms shared by multiple products and discussed their application. As a result, this research found that the product platformation was born in the development of the standard product for major market segmentation. Every major company has made product platforms of image sensors and optical lenses, and as a result, this research found that the competitive factors were unified in the entire industry throughout product platformation. In other words, this product platformation brought product development efficiency of individual firms; however, it also caused industrial competition factors to be unified in the industry.

Keywords: digital camera industry, product evolution trajectory, product platform, unification of competitive factors

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8219 The Macrophage Migration Inhibitory Factor and Stem Cell Factor Levels in Serum of Adolescent and Young Adults with Mood Disorders: A Two Year Follow-Up Study

Authors: Aleksandra Rajewska-Rager, Maria Skibinska, Monika Dmitrzak-Weglarz, Natalia Lepczynska, Pawel Kapelski, Joanna Pawlak, Joanna Hauser

Abstract:

Introduction: Inflammation and cytokines have emerged as a promising target in mood disorders research; however there are still very limited numbers of study regarding inflammatory alterations among adolescents and young adults with mood disorders. The Macrophage Migration Inhibitory Factor (MIF) and Stem Cell Factor (SCF) are the pleiotropic cytokines which may play an important role in mood disorders pathophysiology. The aim of this study was to investigate levels of these factors in serum of adolescent and young adults with mood disorders compared to healthy controls. Subjects: We involved 79 patients aged 12-24 years in 2-year follow-up study with a primary diagnosis of mood disorders: bipolar disorder (BP) and unipolar disorder with BP spectrum. Study group includes 23 males (mean age 19.08, SD 3.3) and 56 females (18.39, SD 3.28). Control group consisted 35 persons: 7 males (20.43, SD 4.23) and 28 females (21.25, SD 2.11). Clinical diagnoses according to DSM-IV-TR criteria were assessed using Kiddie-Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia-Present and Lifetime Version (K-SADS-PL) and Structured Clinical Interview for the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (SCID) in young adults respectively. Clinical assessment includes evaluation of clinical factors and symptoms severity (rated using the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale and Young Mania Rating Scale). Clinical and biological evaluations were made at control visits respectively at baseline (week 0), euthymia (at month 3 or 6) and after 12 and 24 months. Methods: Serum protein concentration was determined by Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assays (ELISA) method. Human MIF and SCF DuoSet ELISA kits were used. In the analyses non-parametric tests were used: Mann-Whitney U test, Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA, Friedman’s ANOVA, Wilcoxon signed rank test, Spearman correlation. We defined statistical significance as p < 0.05. Results: Comparing MIF and SCF levels between acute episode of depression/hypo/mania at baseline and euthymia (at month 3 or 6) we did not find any statistical differences. At baseline patients with age above 18 years old had decreased MIF level compared to patients younger than 18 years. MIF level at baseline positively correlated with age (p=0.004). Positive correlations of SCF level at month 3 and 6 with depression or mania occurrence at month 24 (p=0.03 and p=0.04, respectively) was detected. Strong correlations between MIF and SCF levels at baseline (p=0.0005) and month 3 (p=0.03) were observed. Discussion: Our results did not show any differences in MIF and SCF levels between acute episode of depression/hypo/mania and euthymia in young patients. Further studies on larger groups are recommended. Grant was founded by National Science Center in Poland no 2011/03/D/NZ5/06146.

Keywords: cytokines, MIF, mood disorders, SCF

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8218 Multivariate Analysis of Causes of Death among Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients: A Seer-Based Study

Authors: Peri Harish Kumar, Sai Sharan Dwarka, Tajbinder Singh Bains, Suneet John Joseph, Chaitanya Kiran, Sambhu Dutta, Sarah Makram, Mohamed Sayed Zaazouee, Alaa Ahmed Elshanbary

Abstract:

Objective: To identify cancer and non-cancer causes of death in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients over different time periods after diagnosis and to compare the mortality risk of each cause in HCC patients with the general population. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, data of 67,637 HCC patients from 1975 to 2016 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We investigated the association between different causes of death and the following variables: age, race, tumor stage at diagnosis, and treatment (surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy); each according to the periods of <1 year, 1-5 years, 5-10 years, and >10 years following the diagnosis. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for cancer and non-cancer deaths in each of the mentioned periods following diagnosis. Results: Data of 67,637 patients, of whom 50,571 patients died during the follow-up period, were analyzed. Most deaths were due to HCC itself (35,535, 70.3%), followed by other cancers (3,983, 7.9%). Common causes of non-cancer mortality included infectious and parasitic diseases including HIV (2,823 patients, SMR=105.68, 95% CI: 101.82-109.65), chronic liver disease (2,719 patients, SMR=76.56, 95% CI: 73.71,79.5), and heart diseases (1,265 patients, SMR=2.26, 95% CI: 2.14-2.39), with higher mortality risk in HCC patients than in the general population. Conclusion: Cancers stand for most deaths in patients with HCC. Besides, infectious, and parasitic diseases including HIV represent the commonest non-cancer cause of mortality.

Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma, seer, causes of death, mortality

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8217 Habitate Potentials of Human Societies in the Alluvial Cone of the Sistan Plain in the Bronze Age

Authors: Reza Mehrafarin, Nafiseh Mirshekari, Mahila Mehrafarin

Abstract:

Sistan is one of the ancient regions of Iran, which is located in the east of this country. 1660 ancient sites were identified in the archeological field surveys that we did in this area. Of these, about 900 sites belong to the Bronze Age, which are located in an area of about 3000 square kilometers. The Bronze Age in Iran began at the end of the fourth millennium BC and ended at the beginning of the second millennium BC. During this period, many cities and villages were established in Sistan, that the burnt city (Shahr-e Sokhta) was its most important center, with an area of about 150 hectares and a population of 5,000. In this article, we have tried to identify and introduce the most important features of the Bronze Age of Sistan, especially the burnt city. Another goal of the article is to identify the factors that led to the emergence of the Bronze Age, especially urbanization in Sistan at the end of the fourth millennium BCand then we want to know what factors caused the destruction of Bronze Age civilization and urbanization in Sistan. Studying and evaluating these factors are the most important goals of this article. The research method of this article is field research. As we surveyed all of Sistan with a large number of archaeologists for two years in order to identify its ancient sites and understanding its geographical space. The result of this survey led to the identification of a large number of ancient sites which were formed in three major terraces in Sistan. The most important factor in the emergence of these civilizations, especially the Bronze Age in Sistan, was the Hirmand River. On the other hand, the most important factor in the destruction of the Bronze Age and its cities in Sistan was the Hirmand River.As it was destroyed by the movement of the Hirmand River bed or the long droughts of the Bronze Age of Sistan.

Keywords: archaeological survey, bronze age, sistan, urbanization

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8216 The Investigation of Work Stress and Burnout in Nurse Anesthetists: A Cross-Sectional Study

Authors: Yen Ling Liu, Shu-Fen Wu, Chen-Fuh Lam, I-Ling Tsai, Chia-Yu Chen

Abstract:

Purpose: Nurse anesthetists are confronting extraordinarily high job stress in their daily practice, deriving from the fast-track anesthesia care, risk of perioperative complications, routine rotating shifts, teaching programs and interactions with the surgical team in the operating room. This study investigated the influence of work stress on the burnout and turnover intention of nurse anesthetists in a regional general hospital in Southern Taiwan. Methods: This was a descriptive correlational study carried out in 66 full-time nurse anesthetists. Data was collected from March 2017 to June 2017 by in-person interview, and a self-administered structured questionnaire was completed by the interviewee. Outcome measurements included the Practice Environment Scale of the Nursing Work Index (PES-NWI), Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI) and nursing staff turnover intention. Numerical data were analyzed by descriptive statistics, independent t test, or one-way ANOVA. Categorical data were compared using the chi-square test (x²). Datasets were computed with Pearson product-moment correlation and linear regression. Data were analyzed by using SPSS 20.0 software. Results: The average score for job burnout was 68.7916.67 (out of 100). The three major components of burnout, including emotional depletion (mean score of 26.32), depersonalization (mean score of 13.65), and personal(mean score of 24.48). These average scores suggested that these nurse anesthetists were at high risk of burnout and inversely correlated with turnover intention (t = -4.048, P < 0.05). Using linear regression model, emotional exhaustion and depersonalization were the two independent factors that predicted turnover intention in the nurse anesthetists (19.1% in total variance). Conclusion/Implications for Practice: The study identifies that the high risk of job burnout in the nurse anesthetists is not simply derived from physical overload, but most likely resulted from the additional emotional and psychological stress. The occurrence of job burnout may affect the quality of nursing work, and also influence family harmony, in turn, may increase the turnover rate. Multimodal approach is warranted to reduce work stress and job burnout in nurse anesthetists to enhance their willingness to contribute in anesthesia care.

Keywords: anesthesia nurses, burnout, job, turnover intention

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8215 Evaluating Psychosocial Influence of Dental Aesthetics: A Cross-Sectional Study

Authors: Mahjabeen Akbar

Abstract:

Dental aesthetics and its associated psychosocial influence have a significant impact on individuals. Correcting malocclusions is a key motivating factor for majority patients; however, psychosocial factors have been rarely incorporated in evaluating malocclusions. Therefore, it is necessary to study the psychosocial influence of malocclusion in patients. The study aimed to determine the psychosocial influence of dental aesthetics in dental students by the ‘Psychosocial Impact of Dental Aesthetics Questionnaire’ and self-rated Aesthetic Component of the Index of Orthodontic Treatment Need (IOTN). This was a quantitative study using a cross-sectional study design. One hundred twenty dental students (71 females and 49 males; mean age 24.5) were selected via purposive sampling from July to August 2019. Dental students with no former orthodontic treatment were requested to fill out the ‘Psychosocial Impact of Dental Aesthetics Questionnaire.’ Variables including; self-confidence/insecurity, social influence, psychological influence and self-perception of the need of an orthodontic treatment were evaluated by a sequence of statements, while dental aesthetics were evaluated by using the IOTN Aesthetic Component. To determine the significance, the Kruskal-Wallis test was utilized. The results show that all four variables measuring psychosocial impact indicated significant correlations with the perceived malocclusions with a p-value of less than 0.01. The results conclude there is a strong psychological and social influence of altered dental aesthetics on an individual. Moreover, the relationship between the IOTN-AC grading with the psychosocial wellbeing of an individual stands proven, indicating that the perception of altered dental aesthetics is as important as a factor in treatment need as the amount of malocclusion.

Keywords: dental aesthetics, malocclusion, psychosocial influence, dental students

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8214 Educators’ Adherence to Learning Theories and Their Perceptions on the Advantages and Disadvantages of E-Learning

Authors: Samson T. Obafemi, Seraphin D. Eyono-Obono

Abstract:

Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) are pervasive nowadays, including in education where they are expected to improve the performance of learners. However, the hope placed in ICTs to find viable solutions to the problem of poor academic performance in schools in the developing world has not yet yielded the expected benefits. This problem serves as a motivation to this study whose aim is to examine the perceptions of educators on the advantages and disadvantages of e-learning. This aim will be subdivided into two types of research objectives. Objectives on the identification and design of theories and models will be achieved using content analysis and literature review. However, the objective on the empirical testing of such theories and models will be achieved through the survey of educators from different schools in the Pinetown District of the South African Kwazulu-Natal province. SPSS is used to quantitatively analyse the data collected by the questionnaire of this survey using descriptive statistics and Pearson correlations after assessing the validity and the reliability of the data. The main hypothesis driving this study is that there is a relationship between the demographics of educators’ and their adherence to learning theories on one side, and their perceptions on the advantages and disadvantages of e-learning on the other side, as argued by existing research; but this research views these learning theories under three perspectives: educators’ adherence to self-regulated learning, to constructivism, and to progressivism. This hypothesis was fully confirmed by the empirical study except for the demographic factor where teachers’ level of education was found to be the only demographic factor affecting the perceptions of educators on the advantages and disadvantages of e-learning.

Keywords: academic performance, e-learning, learning theories, teaching and learning

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8213 Evaluation of Indoor Radon as Air Pollutant in Schools and Control of Exposure of the Children

Authors: Kremena Ivanona, Bistra Kunovska, Jana Djunova, Desislava Djunakova, Zdenka Stojanovska

Abstract:

In recent decades, the general public has become increasingly interested in the impact of air pollutions on their health. Currently, numerous studies are aimed at identifying pollutants in the indoor environment where they carry out daily activities. Internal pollutants can be of both natural and artificial origin. With regard to natural pollutants, special attention is paid to natural radioactivity. In recent years, radon has been one of the most studied indoor pollutants because it has the greatest contribution to human exposure to natural radionuclides. It is a known fact that lung cancer can be caused by radon radiation and it is the second risk factor after smoking for the onset of the disease. The main objective of the study under the National Science Fund of Bulgaria, in the framework of grant No КП-06-Н23/1/07.12.2018 is to evaluate the indoor radon as an important air pollutant in school buildings in order to reduce the exposure to children. The measurements were performed in 48 schools located in 55 buildings in one Bulgarian administrative district (Kardjaly). The nuclear track detectors (CR-39) were used for measurements. The arithmetic and geometric means of radon concentrations are AM = 140 Bq/m3, and GM = 117 Bq/m3 respectively. In 51 school rooms, the radon levels were greater than 200 Bq/m3, and in 28 rooms, located in 17 school buildings, it exceeded the national reference level of 300 Bq/m3, defined in the Bulgarian ordinance on radiation protection (or 30% of the investigated buildings). The statistically significant difference in the values of radon concentration by municipalities (KW, р < 0.001) obtained showed that the most likely reason for the differences between the groups is the geographical location of the buildings and the possible influence of the geological composition. The combined effect of the year of construction (technical condition of the buildings) and the energy efficiency measures was considered. The values of the radon concentration in the buildings where energy efficiency measures have been implemented are higher than those in buildings where they have not been performed. This result confirms the need for investigation of radon levels before conducting the energy efficiency measures in buildings. Corrective measures for reducing the radon levels have been recommended in school buildings with high radon levels in order to decrease the children's exposure.

Keywords: air pollution, indoor radon, children exposure, schools

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