Search results for: quantum probability

Authors: Deepa Das, Susmita Das

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Cognitive Radio (CR) is an emerging technology to combat the spectrum scarcity issues. This is achieved by consistently sensing the spectrum, and detecting the under-utilized frequency bands without causing undue interference to the primary user (PU). In soft decision fusion (SDF) based cooperative spectrum sensing, various evolutionary algorithms have been discussed, which optimize the weight coefficient vector for maximizing the detection performance. In this paper, we propose the hybrid invasive weed optimization and particle swarm optimization (IWO/PSO) algorithm as a fast and global optimization method, which improves the detection probability with a lesser sensing time. Then, the efficiency of this algorithm is compared with the standard invasive weed optimization (IWO), particle swarm optimization (PSO), genetic algorithm (GA) and other conventional SDF based methods on the basis of convergence and detection probability.

Keywords: cognitive radio, spectrum sensing, soft decision fusion, GA, PSO, IWO, hybrid IWO/PSO

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Authors: Sadaf Nawaz, Adnan Ahmed Khan, Asad Mahmood, Chaudhary Farrukh Javed

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Classically, an energy detector is implemented in time domain (TD). However, frequency domain (FD) based energy detector has demonstrated an improved performance. This paper presents a comparison between the two approaches as to analyze their pros and cons. A detailed performance analysis of the classical TD energy-detector and the periodogram based detector is performed. Exact and approximate mathematical expressions for probability of false alarm (Pf) and probability of detection (Pd) are derived for both approaches. The derived expressions naturally lead to an analytical as well as intuitive reasoning for the improved performance of (Pf) and (Pd) in different scenarios. Our analysis suggests the dependence improvement on buffer sizes. Pf is improved in FD, whereas Pd is enhanced in TD based energy detectors. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations results demonstrate the analysis reached by the derived expressions.

Keywords: cognitive radio, energy detector, periodogram, spectrum sensing

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Authors: Kim Anema, Matthias Max, Chris Zevenbergen

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For any flood risk manager the 'safety paradox' has to be a familiar concept: low probability leads to a sense of safety, which leads to more investments in the area, which leads to higher potential consequences: keeping the aggregated risk (probability*consequences) at the same level. Therefore, it is important to mitigate potential consequences apart from probability. However, when the (perceived) probability is so low that there is no recognizable trend for society to adapt to, addressing the potential consequences will always be the lagging point on the agenda. Preparedness programs fail because of lack of interest and urgency, policy makers are distracted by their day to day business and there's always a more urgent issue to spend the taxpayer's money on. The leading question in this study was how to address the social consequences of flooding in a context of (perceived) low probability. Disruptions of everyday urban life, large or small, can be caused by a variety of (un)expected things - of which flooding is only one possibility. Variability like this is typically addressed with resilience - and we used the concept of Community Resilience as the framework for this study. Drawing on face to face interviews, an extensive questionnaire and publicly available statistical data we explored the 'whole society response' to two recent urban flood events; the Brisbane Floods (AUS) in 2011 and the Dresden Floods (GE) in 2013. In Brisbane, we studied how the societal impacts of the floods were counteracted by both authorities and the public, and in Dresden we were able to validate our findings. A large part of the reactions, both public as institutional, to these two urban flood events were not fuelled by preparedness or proper planning. Instead, more important success factors in counteracting social impacts like demographic changes in neighborhoods and (non-)economic losses were dynamics like community action, flexibility and creativity from authorities, leadership, informal connections and a shared narrative. These proved to be the determining factors for the quality and speed of recovery in both cities. The resilience of the community in Brisbane was good, due to (i) the approachability of (local) authorities, (ii) a big group of ‘secondary victims’ and (iii) clear leadership. All three of these elements were amplified by the use of social media and/ or web 2.0 by both the communities and the authorities involved. The numerous contacts and social connections made through the web were fast, need driven and, in their own way, orderly. Similarly in Dresden large groups of 'unprepared', ad hoc organized citizens managed to work together with authorities in a way that was effective and speeded up recovery. The concept of community resilience is better fitted than 'social adaptation' to deal with the potential consequences of an (im)probable flood. Community resilience is built on capacities and dynamics that are part of everyday life and which can be invested in pre-event to minimize the social impact of urban flooding. Investing in these might even have beneficial trade-offs in other policy fields.

Keywords: community resilience, disaster response, social consequences, preparedness

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Authors: Phontip Kanlahasuth

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This paper presents the environmental safety and occupational health risk assessment of rocket static test by assessing risk level from probability and severity and then appropriately applying the risk control measures. Before the environmental safety and occupational health measures are applied, the serious hazards level is 31%, medium level is 24% and low level is 45%. Once risk control measures are practically implemented, the serious hazard level can be diminished, medium level is 38%, low level is 45% and eliminated level is 17%. It is clearly shown that the environmental safety and occupational health measures can significantly reduce the risk level.

Keywords: rocket static test, hazard, risk, risk assessment, risk analysis, environment, safety, occupational health, acceptable risk, probability, severity, risk level

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Authors: Meriem Bahij, Ahmed Nafidi, Boujemâa Achchab, Sílvio M. A. Gama, José A. O. Matos

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Stochastic modeling concerns the use of probability to model real-world situations in which uncertainty is present. Therefore, the purpose of stochastic modeling is to estimate the probability of outcomes within a forecast, i.e. to be able to predict what conditions or decisions might happen under different situations. In the present study, we present a model of a stochastic diffusion process based on the bi-Weibull distribution function (its trend is proportional to the bi-Weibull probability density function). In general, the Weibull distribution has the ability to assume the characteristics of many different types of distributions. This has made it very popular among engineers and quality practitioners, who have considered it the most commonly used distribution for studying problems such as modeling reliability data, accelerated life testing, and maintainability modeling and analysis. In this work, we start by obtaining the probabilistic characteristics of this model, as the explicit expression of the process, its trends, and its distribution by transforming the diffusion process in a Wiener process as shown in the Ricciaardi theorem. Then, we develop the statistical inference of this model using the maximum likelihood methodology. Finally, we analyse with simulated data the computational problems associated with the parameters, an issue of great importance in its application to real data with the use of the convergence analysis methods. Overall, the use of a stochastic model reflects only a pragmatic decision on the part of the modeler. According to the data that is available and the universe of models known to the modeler, this model represents the best currently available description of the phenomenon under consideration.

Keywords: diffusion process, discrete sampling, likelihood estimation method, simulation, stochastic diffusion process, trends functions, bi-parameters weibull density function

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Authors: Yu Qin, Wanjiaman Li

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The widespread use of mobile electronic devices increases the complexities of mobile security. This thesis aims to provide a secure communication environment for smartphone users. Some research proves that the one-time pad is one of the securest encryption methods, and that the key distribution problem can be solved by using the QKD (quantum key distribution). The objective of this project is to design an Android APP (application) to exchange several random keys between mobile phones. Inspired by QKD, the developed APP uses the quick response (QR) code as a carrier to dispatch large amounts of one-time keys. After evaluating the performance of APP, it allows the mobile phone to capture and decode 1800 bytes of random data in 600ms. The continuous scanning mode of APP is designed to improve the overall transmission performance and user experience, and the maximum transmission rate of this mode is around 2200 bytes/s. The omnidirectional readability and error correction capability of QR code gives it a better real-life application, and the features of adequate storage capacity and quick response optimize overall transmission efficiency. The security of this APP is guaranteed since QR code is exchanged face-to-face, eliminating the risk of being eavesdropped. Also, the id of QR code is the only message that would be transmitted through the whole communication. The experimental results show this project can achieve superior transmission performance, and the correlation between the transmission rate of the system and several parameters, such as the QR code size, has been analyzed. In addition, some existing technologies and the main findings in the context of the project are summarized and critically compared in detail.

Keywords: one-time pad, QKD (quantum key distribution), QR code, application

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Authors: Rachid Marzoug, Noureddine Lakouari, Beatriz Castillo Téllez, Margarita Castillo Téllez, Gerardo Alberto Mejía Pérez

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This paper developed a two-lane cellular automata model to explain the relationship between car accidents at a signalized intersection and traffic-related parameters. It is found that the increase of the lane-changing probability P?ₕ? increases the risk of accidents, besides, the inflow α and the probability of accidents Pₐ? exhibit a nonlinear relationship. Furthermore, depending on the inflow, Pₐ? exhibits three different phases. The transition from phase I to phase II is of first (second) order when P?ₕ?=0 (P?ₕ?>0). However, the system exhibits a second (first) order transition from phase II to phase III when P?ₕ?=0 (P?ₕ?>0). In addition, when the inflow is not very high, the green light length of one road should be increased to improve road safety. Finally, simulation results show that the traffic at the intersection is safer adopting symmetric lane-changing rules than asymmetric ones.

Keywords: two-lane intersection, accidents, fatality risk, lane-changing, phase transition

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Authors: C. P. Autry, A. W. Roscoe, Mykhailo Magal

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We discuss the theoretical model underlying 2BPA (two-band peer authentication), a practical alternative to conventional authentication of entities and data in IoT. In essence, this involves assembling a virtual map of authentication assets in the network, typically leading to many paths of confirmation between any pair of entities. This map is continuously updated, confirmed, and evaluated. The value of authentication along multiple disjoint paths becomes very clear, and we require analogues of triangulation to extend authentication along extended paths and deliver it along all possible paths. We discover that if an attacker wants to make an honest node falsely believe she has authenticated another, then the length of the authentication paths is of little importance. This is because optimal attack strategies correspond to minimal cuts in the authentication graph and do not contain multiple edges on the same path. The authentication provided by disjoint paths normally is additive (in entropy).

Keywords: authentication, edge computing, industrial IoT, post-quantum resistance

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Authors: Mohammad Rahim Rahnama, Amir Ali Kharazmi, Safiye Rokni

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The tourism industry will be the most important unlimited, sustainable source of income after the oil and automotive industries by 2020 and not only countries, but cities are striving to apprehend its various facets. In line with this objective, the present descriptive-analytical study, through survey and using a questionnaire, seeks to evaluate the probability of tourists’ return and their recommendation to their countrymen to travel to Mashhad, Iran. The population under study is a sample of 384 foreign tourists who, in 2016, arrived at Mashhad, the second metropolis in Iran and its biggest religious city. The Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to analyze the data. Twenty-six percent of the tourists are female and 74% are male. On average, each tourist has had 3.02 trips abroad and 2.1 trips to Mashhad. Tourists from 14 different countries have arrived at Mashhad. Kuwait (15.9%), Armenia (15.6%), and Iraq (10.9%) were the countries where most tourists originated. Seventy-six percent of the tourists traveled with family and 90% of the tourists arrived at Mashhad via airplane. Major purposes of tourists’ trip include pilgrimage (27.9%), treatment (22.1%) followed by pilgrimage and treatment combined (35.4%). Major issues for tourists, in the order of priority, include quality of goods and services (30.2%), shopping (18%), and inhabitants’ treatment of foreigners (15.9%). Main tourist attractions, in addition to the Holy Shrine of Imam Reza, include Torqabeh and Shandiz (Torqabeh 40.9% and Shandiz 29.9%), Neyshabour (18.2%) followed by Kalat, 4.4%. The average willingness to return among tourists is 3.13, which is higher than the mean 3, indicating satisfaction with the stay in Mashhad. Similarly, the average for tourists’ recommending to their countrymen to visit Mashhad is 3.42, which is also an indicator of tourists’ satisfaction with their presence in Mashhad. According to the findings of the Kaplan-Meier estimator, an increase in the number of tourists’ trips to Mashhad, and an increase in the number of tourists’ foreign trips, reduces the probability of recommending a trip to Mashhad by tourists. Similarly, willingness to return is higher among those who stayed at a relatives’ home compared with other patterns of residence (hotels, self-catering accommodation, and pilgrim houses). Therefore, addressing the issues raised by tourists is essential for their return and their recommendation to others to travel to Mashhad.

Keywords: international tourist, probability of return, satisfaction, Mashhad

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Authors: Xiaohan Bookman, Xiaoyan Zhu

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The outputs of non-linear feed-forward neural network are positive, which could be treated as probability when they are normalized to one. If we take Entropy-Based Principle into consideration, the outputs for each sample could be represented as the distribution of this sample for different clusters. Entropy-Based Principle is the principle with which we could estimate the unknown distribution under some limited conditions. As this paper defines two processes in Feed-Forward Neural Network, our limited condition is the abstracted features of samples which are worked out in the abstraction process. And the final outputs are the probability distribution for different clusters in the clustering process. As Entropy-Based Principle is considered into the feed-forward neural network, a clustering method is born. We have conducted some experiments on six open UCI data sets, comparing with a few baselines and applied purity as the measurement. The results illustrate that our method outperforms all the other baselines that are most popular clustering methods.

Keywords: feed-forward neural network, clustering, max-entropy principle, probabilistic models

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Authors: Francisco Bulnes

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Through the Fukaya conjecture and the wrapped Floer cohomology, the correspondences between paths in a loop space and states of a wrapping space of states in a Hamiltonian space (the ramification of field in this case is the connection to the operator that goes from TM to T*M) are demonstrated where these last states are corresponding to bosonic extensions of a spectrum of the space-time or direct image of the functor Spec, on space-time. This establishes a distinguished diffeomorphism defined by the mapping from the corresponding loops space to wrapping category of the Floer cohomology complex which furthermore relates in certain proportion D-branes (certain D-modules) with strings. This also gives to place to certain conjecture that establishes equivalences between moduli spaces that can be consigned in a moduli identity taking as space-time the Hitchin moduli space on G, whose dual can be expressed by a factor of a bosonic moduli spaces.

Keywords: Floer cohomology, Fukaya conjecture, Lagrangian submanifolds, quantum topological diffeomorphism

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Authors: Roman Snytsar

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Pseudo-random numbers are often used in scientific computing such as the Monte Carlo Simulations or the Quantum Inspired Optimization. Requirements for a parallel random number generator running in the modern multi-core vector environment are more stringent than those for sequential random number generators. As well as passing the usual quality tests, the output of the parallel random number generator must be verifiable and reproducible throughout the concurrent execution. We propose a family of vectorized Permuted Congruential Generators. Implementations are available for multiple modern vector modern computer architectures. Besides demonstrating good single core performance, the generators scale easily across many processor cores and multiple distributed nodes. We provide performance and parallel speedup analysis and comparisons between the implementations.

Keywords: pseudo-random numbers, quantum optimization, SIMD, parallel computing

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Authors: Gurbir Kaur, Surinder Pal Singh

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The present study is a part of the research work on the effect of limestone powder (LP), silica fume (SF) and metakaolin (MK), on the flexural fatigue performance of steel fibre reinforced concrete (SFRC). Corrugated rectangular steel fibres of size 0.6x2.0x35 mm at a constant volume fraction of 1.0% have been incorporated in all mix combinations as the reinforcing material. Three mix combinations were prepared by replacing 30% of ordinary Portland cement (OPC) by weight with these cement additives in binary and ternary fashion to demonstrate their contribution. An experimental programme was conducted to obtain the fatigue lives of all mix combinations at various stress levels. The fatigue life data have been analysed as an attempt to determine the relationship between stress level ‘S’, number of cycles to failure ‘N’ and probability of failure ‘Pf’ for all mix combinations. The experimental coefficients of the fatigue equation have also been obtained from the fatigue data to represent the S-N-Pf curves analytically.

Keywords: cement additives, fatigue life, probability of failure, steel fibre reinforced concrete

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Authors: Shanza Akram, Sameen Toor, Heba Harb Abu Alkass, Zainab Abdulsalam Altaha, Sara Taha Abdulla, Saleem Imran

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Acute pulmonary embolism (PE) is a common disease and can be fatal. The clinical presentation is variable and nonspecific, making accurate diagnosis difficult. Testing patients with suspected acute PE has increased dramatically. However, the overuse of some tests, particularly CT and D-dimer measurement, may not improve care while potentially leading to patient harm and unnecessary expense. CTPA is the investigation of choice for PE. Its easy availability, accuracy and ability to provide alternative diagnosis has lowered the threshold for performing it, resulting in its overuse. Guidelines have recommended the use of clinical pretest probability tools such as ‘Wells score’ to assess risk of suspected PE. Unfortunately, implementation of guidelines in clinical practice is inconsistent. This has led to low risk patients being subjected to unnecessary imaging, exposure to radiation and possible contrast related complications. Aim: To study the diagnostic yield of CT PA, clinical pretest probability of patients according to wells score and to determine whether or not there was an overuse of CTPA in our service. Methods: CT scans done on patients with suspected P.E in our hospital from 1st January 2014 to 31st December 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. Medical records were reviewed to study demographics, clinical presentation, final diagnosis, and to establish if Wells score and D-Dimer were used correctly in predicting the probability of PE and the need for subsequent CTPA. Results: 100 patients (51male) underwent CT PA in the time period. Mean age was 57 years (24-91 years). Majority of patients presented with shortness of breath (52%). Other presenting symptoms included chest pain 34%, palpitations 6%, collapse 5% and haemoptysis 5%. D Dimer test was done in 69%. Overall Wells score was low (<2) in 28 %, moderate (>2 - < 6) in 47% and high (> 6) in 15% of patients. Wells score was documented in medical notes of only 20% patients. PE was confirmed in 12% (8 male) patients. 4 had bilateral PE’s. In high-risk group (Wells > 6) (n=15), there were 5 diagnosed PEs. In moderate risk group (Wells >2 - < 6) (n=47), there were 6 and in low risk group (Wells <2) (n=28), one case of PE was confirmed. CT scans negative for PE showed pleural effusion in 30, Consolidation in 20, atelactasis in 15 and pulmonary nodule in 4 patients. 31 scans were completely normal. Conclusion: Yield of CT for pulmonary embolism was low in our cohort at 12%. A significant number of our patients who underwent CT PA had low Wells score. This suggests that CT PA is over utilized in our institution. Wells score was poorly documented in medical notes. CT-PA was able to detect alternative pulmonary abnormalities explaining the patient's clinical presentation. CT-PA requires concomitant pretest clinical probability assessment to be an effective diagnostic tool for confirming or excluding PE. . Clinicians should use validated clinical prediction rules to estimate pretest probability in patients in whom acute PE is being considered. Combining Wells scores with clinical and laboratory assessment may reduce the need for CTPA.

Keywords: CT PA, D dimer, pulmonary embolism, wells score

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Authors: Melissa Chavez Portillo, Hector Juarez Santiesteban, Mauricio Pacio Castillo, Oscar Portillo Moreno

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Nanocrystalline Li-doped PbS thin films have been deposited by chemical bath deposition technique. The goal of this work is to study the modification of the optoelectronic and structural properties of Lithium incorporation. The increase of Li doping in PbS thin films leads to an increase of band gap in the range of 1.4-2.3, consequently, quantum size effect becomes pronounced in the Li-doped PbS films, which lead to a significant enhancement in the optical band gap. Doping shows influence in the film growth and results in a reduction of crystallite size from 30 to 14 nm. The refractive index was calculated and a relationship with dielectric constant was investigated. The dc conductivities of Li-doped and undoped samples were measured in the temperature range 290-340K, the conductivity increase with increase of Lithium content in the PbS films.

Keywords: doping, quantum confinement, optical band gap, PbS

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Authors: Anna Sikharulidze, Gia Sirbiladze

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For the evaluation of unreliability levels of movement on the closed routes in the vehicle routing problem, the fuzzy operators family is constructed. The interactions between routing factors in extreme conditions on the roads are considered. A multi-criteria decision-making model (MCDM) is constructed. Constructed aggregations are based on the Choquet integral and the associated probability class of a fuzzy measure. Propositions on the correctness of the extension are proved. Connections between the operators and the compositions of dual triangular norms are described. The conjugate connections between the constructed operators are shown. Operators reflect interactions among all the combinations of the factors in the fuzzy MCDM process. Several variants of constructed operators are used in the decision-making problem regarding the assessment of unreliability and possibility levels of movement on closed routes.

Keywords: vehicle routing problem, associated probabilities of a fuzzy measure, choquet integral, fuzzy aggregation operator

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Authors: S. Khakurel, R. P. Dhakal, T. Z. Yeow

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Downtime is one of the major sources (alongside damage and injury/death) of financial loss incurred by a structure in an earthquake. The length of downtime associated with a building after an earthquake varies depending on the time taken for the reaction (to the earthquake), decision (on the future course of action) and execution (of the decided course of action) phases. Post-earthquake assessment of buildings is a key step in the decision making process to decide the appropriate safety placarding as well as to decide whether a damaged building is to be repaired or demolished. The aim of the present study is to develop a model to quantify downtime associated with the post-earthquake building-assessment phase in terms of two parameters; i) duration of the different assessment phase; and ii) probability of different colour tagging. Post-earthquake assessment of buildings includes three stages; Level 1 Rapid Assessment including a fast external inspection shortly after the earthquake, Level 2 Rapid Assessment including a visit inside the building and Detailed Engineering Evaluation (if needed). In this study, the durations of all three assessment phases are first estimated from the total number of damaged buildings, total number of available engineers and the average time needed for assessing each building. Then, probability of different tag colours is computed from the 2010-11 Canterbury earthquake Sequence database. Finally, a downtime model for the post-earthquake building inspection phase is proposed based on the estimated phase length and probability of tag colours. This model is expected to be used for rapid estimation of seismic downtime within the Loss Optimisation Seismic Design (LOSD) framework.

Keywords: assessment, downtime, LOSD, Loss Optimisation Seismic Design, phase length, tag color

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Authors: Yagahira E. Castro-Sesquen, Chloe Kim, Robert H. Gilman, David J. Sullivan, Peter C. Searson

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Diagnosis of severe malaria is particularly important in highly endemic regions since most patients are positive for parasitemia and treatment differs from non-severe malaria. Diagnosis can be challenging due to the prevalence of diseases with similar symptoms. Accurate diagnosis is increasingly important to avoid overprescribing antimalarial drugs, minimize drug resistance, and minimize costs. A nanoparticle-based assay for detection and quantification of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2) in urine and serum is reported. The assay uses magnetic beads conjugated with anti-HRP2 antibody for protein capture and concentration, and antibody-conjugated quantum dots for optical detection. Western Blot analysis demonstrated that magnetic beads allows the concentration of HRP2 protein in urine by 20-fold. The concentration effect was achieved because large volume of urine can be incubated with beads, and magnetic separation can be easily performed in minutes to isolate beads containing HRP2 protein. Magnetic beads and Quantum Dots 525 conjugated to anti-HRP2 antibodies allows the detection of low concentration of HRP2 protein (0.5 ng mL-1), and quantification in the range of 33 to 2,000 ng mL-1 corresponding to the range associated with non-severe to severe malaria. This assay can be easily adapted to a non-invasive point-of-care test for classification of severe malaria.

Keywords: HRP2 protein, malaria, magnetic beads, Quantum dots

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Authors: Leslie M. Gutman

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Conduct problems (CP) represent a major dilemma, with wide-ranging and long-lasting individual and societal impacts. Children experience heterogeneous patterns of conduct problems; based on the age of onset, developmental course and related risk factors from around age 3. Early childhood represents a potential window for intervention efforts aimed at changing the trajectory of early starting conduct problems. Using the UK Millennium Cohort Study (n = 17,206 children), this study (a) identifies trajectories of conduct problems from ages 3 to 14 years and (b) assesses the cumulative and interactive effects of individual, family and socioeconomic risk factors from ages 9 months to 14 years. The same factors according to three domains were assessed, including child (i.e., low verbal ability, hyperactivity/inattention, peer problems, emotional problems), family (i.e., single families, parental poor physical and mental health, large family size) and socioeconomic (i.e., low family income, low parental education, unemployment, social housing). A cumulative risk score for the child, family, and socioeconomic domains at each age was calculated. It was then examined how the cumulative risk scores explain variation in the trajectories of conduct problems. Lastly, interactive effects among the different domains of cumulative risk were tested. Using group-based trajectory modeling, four distinct trajectories were found including a ‘low’ problem group and three groups showing childhood-onset conduct problems: ‘school-age onset’; ‘early-onset, desisting’; and ‘early-onset, persisting’. The ‘low’ group (57% of the sample) showed a low probability of conducts problems, close to zero, from 3 to 14 years. The ‘early-onset, desisting’ group (23% of the sample) demonstrated a moderate probability of CP in early childhood, with a decline from 3 to 5 years and a low probability thereafter. The ‘early-onset, persistent’ group (8%) followed a high probability of conduct problems, which declined from 11 years but was close to 70% at 14 years. In the ‘school-age onset’ group, 12% of the sample showed a moderate probability of conduct problems from 3 and 5 years, with a sharp increase by 7 years, increasing to 50% at 14 years. In terms of individual risk, all factors increased the likelihood of being in the childhood-onset groups compared to the ‘low’ group. For cumulative risk, the socioeconomic domain at 9 months and 3 years, the family domain at all ages except 14 years and child domain at all ages were found to differentiate childhood-onset groups from the ‘low’ group. Cumulative risk at 9 months and 3 years did not differentiate between the ‘school-onset’ group and ‘low’ group. Significant interactions were found between the domains for the ‘early-onset, desisting group’ suggesting that low levels of risk in one domain may buffer the effects of high risk in another domain. The implications of these findings for preventive interventions will be highlighted.

Keywords: conduct problems, cumulative risk, developmental trajectories, early childhood, adolescence

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Authors: Douglas Yeboah, Jai Singh

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It has been experimentally demonstrated that exciton diffusion length in organic solids can be improved by fine-tuning the material parameters that govern exciton transfer. Here, a theoretical study is carried out to support this finding. We have therefore derived expressions for the exciton diffusion length and diffusion coefficient of singlet and triplet excitons using Förster resonance energy transfer and Dexter carrier transfer mechanisms and are plotted as a function of photoluminescence (PL) quantum yield, spectral overlap integral, refractive index and dipole moment of the photoactive material. We found that singlet exciton diffusion length increases with PL quantum yield and spectral overlap integral, and decreases with increase in refractive index. Likewise, the triplet exciton diffusion length increases when PL quantum yield increases and dipole moment decreases. The calculated diffusion lengths in different organic materials are compared with existing experimental values and found to be in reasonable agreement. The results are expected to provide insight in developing new organic materials for fabricating bulk heterojunction (BHJ) organic solar cells (OSCs) with better photoconversion efficiency.

Keywords: Dexter carrier transfer, diffusion coefficient, exciton diffusion length, Föster resonance energy transfer, photoactive materials, photophysical parameters

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Authors: Eslam Mohammed Abdelkader, Mohamed Marzouk, Tarek Zayed

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Infrastructure systems are crucial to every aspect of life on Earth. Existing Infrastructure is subjected to degradation while the demands are growing for a better infrastructure system in response to the high standards of safety, health, population growth, and environmental protection. Bridges play a crucial role in urban transportation networks. Moreover, they are subjected to high level of deterioration because of the variable traffic loading, extreme weather conditions, cycles of freeze and thaw, etc. The development of Bridge Management Systems (BMSs) has become a fundamental imperative nowadays especially in the large transportation networks due to the huge variance between the need for maintenance actions, and the available funds to perform such actions. Deterioration models represent a very important aspect for the effective use of BMSs. This paper presents a probabilistic time-based model that is capable of predicting the condition ratings of the concrete bridge decks along its service life. The deterioration process of the concrete bridge decks is modeled using semi-Markov process. One of the main challenges of the Markov Chain Decision Process (MCDP) is the construction of the transition probability matrix. Yet, the proposed model overcomes this issue by modeling the sojourn times based on some probability density functions. The sojourn times of each condition state are fitted to probability density functions based on some goodness of fit tests such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson Darling, and chi-squared test. The parameters of the probability density functions are obtained using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The condition ratings obtained from the Ministry of Transportation in Quebec (MTQ) are utilized as a database to construct the deterioration model. Finally, a comparison is conducted between the Markov Chain and semi-Markov chain to select the most feasible prediction model.

Keywords: bridge management system, bridge decks, deterioration model, Semi-Markov chain, sojourn times, maximum likelihood estimation

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Authors: Fang Ye, Han Yu, Yibing Li

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Radio interference is one of the major concerns in using the global positioning system (GPS) for civilian and military applications. Interference signals are produced not only through all electronic systems but also illegal jammers. Among different types of interferences, continuous wave (CW) interference has strong adverse impacts on the quality of the received signal. In this paper, we make more detailed analysis for CW interference effects on GPS signal quality. Based on the C/A code spectrum lines, the influence of CW interference on the acquisition performance of GPS receivers is further analysed. This influence is supported by simulation results using GPS software receiver. As the most important user parameter of GPS receivers, the mathematical expression of bit error probability is also derived in the presence of CW interference, and the expression is consistent with the Monte Carlo simulation results. The research on CW interference provides some theoretical gist and new thoughts on monitoring the radio noise environment and improving the anti-jamming ability of GPS receivers.

Keywords: GPS, CW interference, acquisition performance, bit error probability, Monte Carlo

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Authors: T. Angeline Priyanka, R. Ganesan

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Recent trends in microelectronics technology have gradually changed the strategies used in very large scale integration (VLSI) circuits. Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor (CMOS) technology has been the industry standard for implementing VLSI device for the past two decades, but due to scale-down issues of ultra-low dimension achievement is not achieved so far. Hence it paved a way for Quantum Cellular Automata (QCA). It is only one of the many alternative technologies proposed as a replacement solution to the fundamental limit problem that CMOS technology will impose in the years to come. In this brief, presented a new adder that possesses high speed of operation occupying less area is proposed. This adder is designed especially for error tolerant application. Hence in the proposed adder, the overall area (cell count) and simulation time are reduced by 88 and 73 percent respectively. Various results of the proposed adder are shown and described.

Keywords: quantum cellular automata, carry look ahead adder, ripple carry adder, lossy application, majority gate, crossover

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Authors: André Luís Brasil Cavalcante, Juan Felix Rodriguez Rebolledo, Lucas Parreira de Faria Borges

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A methodology for the probabilistic analysis of active earth pressure on retaining wall for c-Φ soil backfill is described in this paper. The Rosenblueth point estimate method is used to measure the failure probability of a gravity retaining wall. The basic principle of this methodology is to use two point estimates, i.e., the standard deviation and the mean value, to examine a variable in the safety analysis. The simplicity of this framework assures to its wide application. For the calculation is required 2ⁿ repetitions during the analysis, since the system is governed by n variables. In this study, a probabilistic model based on the Rosenblueth approach for the computation of the overturning probability of failure of a retaining wall is presented. The obtained results have shown the advantages of this kind of models in comparison with the deterministic solution. In a relatively easy way, the uncertainty on the wall and fill parameters are taken into account, and some practical results can be obtained for the retaining structure design.

Keywords: retaining wall, active earth pressure, backfill, probabilistic analysis

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Authors: Eva L. Suarez, Daniel E. Meeroff, Yan Yong

Abstract:

Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: Marwane Ben Hcine, Ridha Bouallegue

Abstract:

The aim of this work is to provide an original analytical framework for downlink effective SINR evaluation in LTE networks. The classical single carrier SINR performance evaluation is extended to multi-carrier systems operating over frequency selective channels. Extension is achieved by expressing the link outage probability in terms of the statistics of the effective SINR. For effective SINR computation, the exponential effective SINR mapping (EESM) method is used on this work. Closed-form expression for the link outage probability is achieved assuming a log skew normal approximation for single carrier case. Then we rely on the lognormal approximation to express the exponential effective SINR distribution as a function of the mean and standard deviation of the SINR of a generic subcarrier. Achieved formulas is easily computable and can be obtained for a user equipment (UE) located at any distance from its serving eNodeB. Simulations show that the proposed framework provides results with accuracy within 0.5 dB.

Keywords: LTE, OFDMA, effective SINR, log skew normal approximation

Procedia PDF Downloads 342

Authors: Esmat Mohammadinasab

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to investigate theoretically and establish a predictive model for determination LogP of armchair polyhex BN nanotubes by using simple descriptors. The relationship between the octanol-water partition coefficient (LogP) and quantum chemical descriptors, electric moments, and topological indices of some armchair polyhex BN nanotubes with various lengths and fixed circumference are represented. Based on density functional theory (DFT) electric moments and physico-chemical properties of those nanotubes are calculated. The DFT method performed based on the Becke’s 3-parameter formulation with the Lee-Yang-Parr functional (B3LYP) method and 3-21G standard basis sets. For the first time, the relationship between partition coefficient and different properties of polyhex BN nanotubes is investigated.

Keywords: topological indices, quantum descriptors, DFT method, nanotubes

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Authors: M. Habibi

Abstract:

The feasibility of proton-boron fusion in plasmoids caused by magneto hydrodynamics instabilities in plasma focus devices is studied analytically. In plasmoids, fusion power for 76 keV < Ti < 1500 keV exceeds bremsstrahlung loss (W/Pb=5.39). In such situation gain factor and the ratio of Te to Ti for a typical 150 kJ plasma focus device will be 7.8 and 4.8 respectively. Also with considering the ion viscous heating effect, W/Pb and Ti/Te will be 2.7 and 6 respectively. Strong magnetic field will reduces ion-electron collision rate due to quantization of electron orbits. While approximately there is no change in electron-ion collision rate, the effect of quantum magnetic field makes ions much hotter than electrons which enhance the fraction of fusion power to bremsstrahlung loss. Therefore self-sustained p-11B fusion reactions would be possible and it could be said that p-11B fuelled plasma focus device is a clean and efficient source of energy.

Keywords: plasmoids, p11B fuel, ion viscous heating, quantum magnetic field, plasma focus device

Procedia PDF Downloads 443

Authors: K. N. Umesh, K. S. Srinivasan

Abstract:

The influence of rotor rub was studied with respect to light rub and heavy rub conditions. The investigations were carried out for both below and above critical speeds. The time domain waveform has revealed truncation of the waveform during rubbing conditions. The quantum of rubbing has been indicated by the quantum of truncation. The orbits for light rub have indicated a single loop whereas for heavy rub multi looped orbits have been observed. In the heavy rub condition above critical speed both sub harmonics and super harmonics are exhibited. The orbit precess in a direction opposite to the direction of the rotation of the rotor. When the rubbing was created above the critical speed the orbit shape was of '8' shape indicating the rotor instability. Super-harmonics and sub-harmonics of vibration signals have been observed for light rub and heavy rub conditions and for speeds above critical.

Keywords: rotor rub, orbital analysis, frequency analysis, vibration signatures

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: Franklin N. Mabe, Samuel A. Donkoh, Seidu Al-Hassan

Abstract:

In order to increase and bridge the differences in rice yield, many farmers have resorted to adopting Farmer Innovation Systems (FISs) and Improved Agricultural Technologies (IATs). This study econometrically analysed the impacts of adoption of FISs and IATs on rice yield using multinomial endogenous switching regression (MESR). Nine-hundred and seven (907) rice farmers from Guinea Savannah Zone (GSZ), Forest Savannah Transition Zone (FSTZ) and Coastal Savannah Zone (CSZ) were used for the study. The study used both primary and secondary data. FBO advice, rice farming experience and distance from farming communities to input markets increase farmers’ adoption of only FISs. Factors that increase farmers’ probability of adopting only IATs are access to extension advice, credit, improved seeds and contract farming. Farmers located in CSZ have higher probability of adopting only IATs than their counterparts living in other agro-ecological zones. Age and access to input subsidy increase the probability of jointly adopting FISs and IATs. FISs and IATs have heterogeneous impact on rice yield with adoption of only IATs having the highest impact followed by joint adoption of FISs and IATs. It is important for stakeholders in rice subsector to champion the provision of improved rice seeds, the intensification of agricultural extension services and contract farming concept. Researchers should endeavour to researched into FISs.

Keywords: farmer innovation systems, improved agricultural technologies, multinomial endogenous switching regression, treatment effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 403