Search results for: long term

Authors: Soretha Beets, Izanette Van Schalkwyk, Doret K. Kirsten

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Children in middle childhood are exposed to various risks, for example, risks associated with poverty and/or dysfunctional families, that may threaten their social functioning. The aim of this study was to develop and design a programme that can be presented to children in middle childhood in order to enhance their social functioning towards better wellbeing. The skills and competencies needed to be included in the programme were identified by means of a literature review and 4 focus groups with educators from 4 sub-areas in a certain district in the North-West Province of South Africa. The programme consists of 8 sessions, presented in a certain order. The sessions cover the following aspects: self-esteem and gratitude, self-regulation and goal-setting, values and relationships, communication and listening, conflict management, emotional competence, and resilient coping. These aspects may benefit children in the middle child’s wellbeing and live on the short-term and may also hold long-term benefits.

Keywords: middle childhood, programme development, social functioning, wellbeing

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Authors: Nadeem Yousuf Khan

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This paper proposes the formation of a digital emergency response system (dERS) in the aged, long-term care, and chronic disease setups in the post-COVID healthcare ecosystem, focusing on the Asia Pacific market where the aging population is increasing significantly. It focuses on the use of digital technologies such as wearables, a global positioning system (GPS), and mobile applications to build an integrated care system for old folks with co-morbidities and other chronic diseases. The paper presents a conceptual framework of a connected digital health ecosystem that not only provides proactive care to registered patients but also prevents the damages due to sudden conditions such as strokes by alerting and treating the patients in a digitally connected and coordinated manner. A detailed review of existing digital health technologies such as wearables, GPS, and mobile apps was conducted in context with the new post-COVID healthcare paradigm, along with a detailed literature review on the digital health policies and usability. A good amount of research papers is available in the application of digital health, but very few of them discuss the formation of a new framework for a connected digital ecosystem for the aged care population, which is increasing around the globe. A connected digital emergency response system has been proposed by the author whereby all registered patients (chronic disease and aged/long term care) will be connected to the proposed digital emergency response system (dERS). In the proposed ecosystem, patients will be provided with a tracking wrist band and a mobile app through which the control room will be monitoring the mobility and vitals such as atrial fibrillation (AF), blood sugar, blood pressure, and other vital signs. In addition to that, an alert in case if the patient falls down will add value to this system. In case of any variation in the vitals, an alert is sent to the dERS 24/7, and dERS clinical staff immediately trigger that alert which goes to the connected hospital and the adulatory service providers, and the patient is escorted to the nearest connected tertiary care hospital. By the time, the patient reaches the hospital, dERS team is ready to take appropriate clinical action to save the life of the patient. Strokes or myocardial infarction patients can be prevented from disaster if they are accessible to engagement healthcare. This dERS will play an effective role in saving the lives of aged patients or patients with chronic co-morbidities.

Keywords: aged care, atrial fibrillation, digital health, digital emergency response system, digital technology

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Authors: Joanne Ndirangu

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Delving into the intricate landscape of slum tourism in Kenya, this study critically evaluates its ethical implications, legal frameworks, and beneficiaries. By examining the complex interplay between tourism operators, visitors, and slum residents, it seeks to uncover the long-term consequences for the communities involved. Through an exploration of ethical considerations, legal parameters, and the distribution of benefits, this examination aims to shed light on the broader socio-economic impacts of slum tourism in Kenya, particularly on the lives of those residing in these marginalized communities. Assessing the ethical considerations surrounding slum tourism in Kenya, including the potential exploitation of residents and cultural sensitivities and examine the legal frameworks governing slum tourism in Kenya and evaluate their effectiveness in protecting the rights and well-being of slum dwellers. Identifying the primary beneficiaries of slum tourism in Kenya, including tour operators, local businesses, and residents, and analysing the distribution of economic benefits. Exploring the long-term socio-economic impacts of slum tourism on the lives of residents, including changes in living conditions, access to resources, and community development. Understanding the motivations and perceptions of tourists participating in slum tourism in Kenya and assess their role in shaping the industry's dynamics and investigate the potential for sustainable and responsible forms of slum tourism that prioritize community empowerment, cultural exchange, and mutual respect. Providing recommendations for policymakers, tourism stakeholders, and community organizations to promote ethical and sustainable practices in slum tourism in Kenya. The main contributions of researching slum tourism in Kenya would include; Ethical Awareness: By critically examining the ethical implications of slum tourism, the research can raise awareness among tourists, operators, and policymakers about the potential exploitation of marginalized communities. Beneficiary Analysis: By identifying the primary beneficiaries of slum tourism, the research can inform discussions on fair distribution of economic benefits and potential strategies for ensuring that local communities derive meaningful advantages from tourism activities. Socio-Economic Understanding: By exploring the long-term socio-economic impacts of slum tourism, the research can deepen understanding of how tourism activities affect the lives of slum residents, potentially informing policies and initiatives aimed at improving living conditions and promoting community development. Tourist Perspectives: Understanding the motivations and perceptions of tourists participating in slum tourism can provide valuable insights into consumer behaviour and preferences, informing the development of responsible tourism practices and marketing strategies. Promotion of Responsible Tourism: By providing recommendations for promoting ethical and sustainable practices in slum tourism, the research can contribute to the development of guidelines and initiatives aimed at fostering responsible tourism and minimizing negative impacts on host communities. Overall, the research can contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of slum tourism in Kenya and its broader implications, while also offering practical recommendations for promoting ethical and sustainable tourism practices.

Keywords: slum tourism, dark tourism, ethical tourism, responsible tourism

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Authors: Usharani Rathinam

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Although policies directing inclusion of marginalized were in effect, majority of chronically impoverished in India belonged to schedule caste and schedule tribes. Also, taking into account that poverty is gendered; destitute women belonged to lower social order whose need is not largely highlighted at policy level. This paper discusses on social relations poverty which highlights on how social order that existed structurally in the society can perpetuate chronic poverty, followed by a critical review on social inclusion policies of India, its merits and demerits in addressing chronic poverty. Multiple case study design is utilized to address this concern in four districts of India; Jhansi, Tikamgarh, Cuddalore and Anantapur. These four districts were selected by purposive sampling based on the criteria; the district should either be categorized as a backward district or should have a history of high poverty rate. Qualitative methods including eighty in-depth interviews, six focus group discussions, six social mapping procedures and three key informant interviews were conducted in 2011, at each of the locations. Analysis of the data revealed that irrespective of gender, schedule castes and schedule tribe participants were found to be chronically poor in all districts. Caste based discrimination is exhibited at both micro and macro levels; village and institutional levels. At village level, lower caste respondents had lesser access to public resources. Also, within institutional settings, due to confiscation, unequal access to resources is noticed, especially in fund distribution. This study found that half of the budget intended for schedule caste and schedule tribes were confiscated by upper caste administrative staffs. This implies that power based on social hierarchy marginalize lower caste participants from accessing better economic, social, and political benefits, that had led them to suffer long term poverty. This study also explored the traditional ties between caste, social structure and bonded labour as a cause of long-term poverty. Though equal access is being emphasized in constitutional rights, issues at micro level have not been reflected in formulation of these rights. Therefore, it is significant for a policy to consider the structural complexity and then focus on issues such as equal distribution of assets and infrastructural facilities that will reduce exclusion and foster long-term security in areas such as employment, markets and public distribution.

Keywords: caste, inclusion policies, India, social order

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Authors: Faizan Asghar, Mohammad Jamal Khattak

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Aging, in general, refers to changes in rheological characteristics of asphalt mixture due to changes in chemical composition over the course of construction and service life of the pavement. The main goal of this study was to investigate the impact of oxidation on fatigue characteristics of a novel HMA composite fabricated with a combination of crumb rubber (CRM) and polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) fiber subject to aging of 7 and 14 days. A flexural beam fatigue test was performed to evaluate several characteristics of control, CRM modified, PVA reinforced, and novel rubber-fiber HMA composite. Experimental results revealed that aging had a significant impact on the fatigue performance of novel HMA composite. It was found that a suitable proportion of CRM and PVA radically affected the performance of novel rubber-fiber HMA in resistance to fracture and fatigue cracking when subjected to long-term aging. The developed novel HMA composite containing 2% CRM and 0.2% PVA presented around 29 times higher resistance to fatigue cracking for a period of 7 days of aging. To develop a cumulative plastic deformation level of 250 micros, such a mixture required over 50 times higher cycles than control HMA. Moreover, the crack propagation rate was reduced by over 90%, with over 12 times higher energy required to propagate a unit crack length in such a mixture compared to conventional HMA. Further, digital imaging correlation analyses revealed a more twisted and convoluted fracture path and higher strain distribution in rubber-fiber HMA composite. The fatigue performance after long-term aging of such novel HMA composite explicitly validates the ability to withstand load repetition that could lead to an extension in the service life of pavement infrastructure and reduce taxpayers’ dollars spent.

Keywords: crumb rubber, PVA fibers, dry process, aging, performance testing, fatigue life

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Authors: Md. Zahirul Islam, Chad A. Ulven

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Fiber-reinforced polymer matrix composites have a wide range of applications in the sectors of automotive, aerospace, sports utilities, among others, due to their high specific strength, stiffness as well as reduced weight. In addition to those favorable properties, composites composed of natural fibers and bio-based resins (i.e., biocomposites) have eco-friendliness and biodegradability. However, the applications of biocomposites are limited due to the lack of knowledge about their long-term reliability under fluctuating loads. In order to explore the long-term reliability of flax fiber reinforced composites under fluctuating loads through high cycle fatigue strength (HCFS), fatigue test were conducted on unidirectional flax fiber reinforced thermoset composites at different percentage loads of ultimate tensile strength (UTS) with a loading frequency of 5 Hz. Change of temperature of the sample during cyclic loading was captured using an IR camera. Initially, the temperature increased rapidly, but after a certain time, it stabilized. A mathematical model was developed to predict the fatigue life from the data of stabilized temperature. Stabilized temperature and dissipated energy per cycle were compared with applied stress. Both showed bilinear behavior and the intersection of those curves were used to determine HCFS. HCFS for unidirectional flax fiber reinforced composites is around 45% of UTS for a loading frequency of 5Hz. Unlike fatigue life, stabilized temperature and dissipated energy-based models are convenient to define HCFS as they have little variation from sample to sample.

Keywords: energy method, fatigue, flax fiber reinforced composite, HCFS, thermographic approach

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Authors: Rahimah Akbar, Abdullah Al-Hashemi, Hanan Taqi, Taiba Sadeq

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As technology continues to develop, teaching curriculums in both schools and universities have begun adopting a more computer/digital based approach to the transmission of knowledge and information, as opposed to the more old-fashioned use of textbooks. This gives rise to the question: Are there any differences in learning from a digital source over learning from a printed source, as in from a textbook? More specifically, which medium of information results in better long-term retention? A review of the confounding factors implicated in understanding the relationship between learning from the two different mediums was done. Alongside this, a 4-week cohort study involving 76 1st year English Language female students was performed, whereby the participants were divided into 2 groups. Group A studied material from a paper source (referred to as the Print Medium), and Group B studied material from a digital source (Digital Medium). The dependent variables were grading of memory recall indexed by a 4 point grading system, and total frequency of item repetition. The study was facilitated by advanced computer software called Super Memo. Results showed that, contrary to prevailing evidence, the Digital Medium group showed no statistically significant differences in terms of the shift from Remember (Episodic) to Know (Semantic) when all confounding factors were accounted for. The shift from Random Guess and Familiar to Remember occurred faster in the Digital Medium than it did in the Print Medium.

Keywords: digital medium, print medium, long-term memory recall, episodic memory, semantic memory, super memo, forgetting index, frequency of repetitions, total time spent

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Authors: Aisling Parkes, Fiona Donson

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There is no doubt that parental imprisonment directly alters the social experiences of childhood for many children worldwide today. Indeed, the extent to which meaningful contact with a parent in prison can positively impact on the life of a child is well documented as are the benefits for the prisoner, particularly in the long term and post-release. However, despite the growing acceptance of children’s rights in Ireland over the past decade in particular, it appears that children’s rights have not yet succeeded in breaking through the walls of Irish prisons when children are visiting an incarcerated parent. In a prison system that continues to prioritise security over all other considerations, little attention has been given to the importance of recognising and protecting the rights of children affected by parental imprisonment in Ireland for children, families and society in the long term. This paper will present the findings which have emerged from a national qualitative research project (the first of its kind to be conducted in Ireland) which examines the current visiting conditions for children and families, and the related culture of visitation within the Irish Prison system. This study investigated, through semi-structured interviews and focus groups, the unique and specialist perspectives of senior prison management, prison governors, prison officers, support organisations, prison child care workers, as well as those with a family member in prison who have direct experience of prison visits in Ireland which involve children and young people. The reality of the current system of visitation that operates in Irish prisons and its impact on children’s rights is presented from a variety of perspectives. The idea of what meaningful contact means from a children’s rights based perspective is interrogated as are the benefits long term for both the child and the offender. The current system is benchmarked against well-accepted international children’s rights norms as reflected under the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child 1989. The dissonance that continues to exist between the theory of children’s rights which includes the right to maintain meaningful contact with a parent in prison and current practice and procedure in Irish Prisons will be explored. In adopting a children’s rights based perspective combined with socio-legal research, this paper will explore the added value that this approach to prison visiting might offer in responding to this particularly marginalised group of children in terms of their social experience of childhood. Finally, the question will be raised as to whether or not there is a responsibility on prisons to view children as independent rights holders when they come to visit the prison or is the prison entitled to focus solely on the prisoner with their children being viewed as a circumstance of the offender? Do the interests of the child and the prisoner have to be exclusive or is there any way of marrying the two?

Keywords: children’s rights, prisoners, sociology, visitation

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Authors: El Andari Chifaa, Bouaziz Rached

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The central focus of this paper was to check whether the Okun’s law in Tunisia is valid or not. For this purpose, we have used quarterly time series data during the period 1990Q1-2014Q1. Firstly, we applied the error correction model instead of the difference version of Okun's Law, the Engle-Granger and Johansen test are employed to find out long run association between unemployment, production, and how error correction mechanism (ECM) is used for short run dynamic. Secondly, we used the gap version of Okun’s law where the estimation is done from three band pass filters which are mathematical tools used in macro-economic and especially in business cycles theory. The finding of the study indicates that the inverse relationship between unemployment and output is verified in the short and long term, and the Okun's law holds for the Tunisian economy, but with an Okun’s coefficient lower than required. Therefore, our empirical results have important implications for structural and cyclical policymakers in Tunisia to promote economic growth in a context of lower unemployment growth.

Keywords: Okun’s law, validity, unit root, cointegration, error correction model, bandpass filters

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Authors: Aleksandra Szunke

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Monetary policy is an important pillar of the economy, directly affecting on the condition of banking sector. Depending on the strategy may both support functioning of banking institutions, as well as limit their excessively risky activities. The literature studies indicate a large number of publications, which include characteristics of initiatives, implemented by central banks during the global financial crisis and the potential effects of the use of non-standard monetary policy instruments. However, the empirical evidence about their effects and real consequences for the financial markets are still not final. Even before the escalation of instability, Bernanke, Reinhart, and Sack (2004) analyzed the effectiveness of various unconventional monetary tools in lowering long-term interest rates in the United States and Japan. The obtained results largely confirmed the effectiveness of the zero-interest-rate policy and Quantitative Easing (QE) in achieving the goal of reducing long-term interest rates. Japan, considered as the precursor of QE policy, also conducted research about the consequences of non-standard instruments, implemented to restore financial stability of the country. Although the literature about the effectiveness of Quantitative Easing in Japan is extensive, it does not uniquely specify whether it brought permanent effects. The main aim of the study is to identify the implications of non-standard monetary policy, implemented by selected central banks (the Federal Reserve System, Bank of England and European Central Bank), paying particular attention to the consequences into three areas: the size of money supply, financial markets, and the real economy.

Keywords: consequences of modern monetary policy, quantitative easing policy, banking sector instability, global financial crisis

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Authors: Paromik Bhattacharyya, Vijay Kumar, Johannes Van Staden

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Micropropagation is an important tool for the conservation of threatened and commercially important plant species of which orchids deserve special attention. Ansellia africana is one such medicinally important orchid species having much commercial significance. Thus, development of regeneration protocols for producing clonally stable regenerates using axillary buds is of much importance. However, for large-scale micropropagation to become not only successful but also acceptable by end-users, somaclonal variations occurring in the plantlets need to be eliminated. In the light of the various factors (genotype, ploidy level, in vitro culture age, explant and culture type, etc.) that may account for the somaclonal variations of divergent genetic changes at the cellular and molecular levels, genetic analysis of micropropagated plants using a multidisciplinary approach is of utmost importance. In the present study, the clonal integrity of the long term micropropagated A. africana plants were assessed using advanced molecular marker system i.e. Start Codon Targeted Polymorphism (SCoT). Our studies recorded a clonally stable regeneration protocol for A. africana with a very high degree of clonal fidelity amongst the regenerates. The results obtained from these molecular analyses could help in modifying the regeneration protocols for obtaining clonally stable true to type plantlets for sustainable commercial use.

Keywords: medicinal orchid micropropagation, start codon targeted polymorphism (SCoT), RAP), traditional African pharmacopoeia, genetic fidelity

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Authors: Yooncheol Lee, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

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This paper deals with the establishment of a short-term operational plan for an air conditioner for efficient energy management of exhibition hall. The short-term operational plan is composed of a time series of operational schedules, which we have searched using genetic algorithms. Establishing operational schedule should be considered the future trends of the variables affecting the exhibition hall environment. To reflect continuously changing factors such as external temperature and occupant, short-term operational plans should be updated in real time. But it takes too much time to evaluate a short-term operational plan using EnergyPlus, a building emulation tool. For that reason, it is difficult to update the operational plan in real time. To evaluate the short-term operational plan, we designed prediction models based on machine learning with fast evaluation speed. This model, which was created by learning the past operational data, is accurate and fast. The collection of operational data and the verification of operational plans were made using EnergyPlus. Experimental results show that the proposed method can save energy compared to the reactive control method.

Keywords: exhibition hall, energy management, predictive model, simulation-based optimization

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Authors: Dante J. Dorantes-González, Aldrin Balsa-Yepes

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Existing learning techniques such as problem-based learning, project-based learning, or case study learning are learning techniques that focus mainly on technical details, but give no specific guidelines on learner’s experience and emotional learning aspects such as arousal salience and valence, being emotional states important factors affecting engagement and retention. Some approaches involving emotion in educational settings, such as social and emotional learning, lack neuroscientific rigorousness and use of specific neurobiological mechanisms. On the other hand, neurobiology approaches lack educational applicability. And educational approaches mainly focus on cognitive aspects and disregard conditioning learning. First, authors start explaining the reasons why it is hard to learn thoughtfully, then they use the method of neurobiological mapping to track the main limbic system functions, such as the reward circuit, and its relations with perception, memories, motivations, sympathetic and parasympathetic reactions, and sensations, as well as the brain cortex. The authors conclude explaining the major finding: The mechanisms of nonconscious learning and the triggers that guarantee long-term memory potentiation. Afterward, the educational framework for practical application and the instructors’ guidelines are established. An implementation example in engineering education is given, namely, the study of tuned-mass dampers for earthquake oscillations attenuation in skyscrapers. This work represents an original learning technique based on nonconscious learning mechanisms to enhance long-term memories that complement existing cognitive learning methods.

Keywords: emotion, emotion-enhanced memory, learning technique, STEM

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Authors: Syed Ali Shahbaz Shah

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In the last few years, Bituminous Asphaltic roads are becoming popular day by day in the world. Plenty of research has been carried out to identify many advantages like safety, environmental effects, and comfort. Some other benefits are minimal noise and skid resistance enhancement. Besides the benefits of asphaltic roads, the permeable structure of the road also causes some distress, and raveling is one of the crucial defects. The main reason behind this distress is the failure of adhesion between bitumen mortar, specifically due to excessive load from heavy traffic. The main focus of this study is to identify the root cause and propose both the long-term and the short-term solutions of raveling on a specific road section depicting the overall road situation from the bridge of Kahuta road towards the intersection of the Islamabad express highway. The methodology adopted for this purpose is visual inspections in-situ. It was noted that there were chunks of debris on the road surface, which indicates that the asphalt binder is aged the most probably. Further laboratory testing would confirm that either asphalt binder is aged or inadequate compaction was adept during cold weather paving.

Keywords: asphaltic roads, asphalt binder, distress, raveling

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Authors: L. I. Shanshan

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Beginning with the debate of concept, this essay explains the historical source and development of flexible housing in China. In the former part, the flexibility contained in traditional house is explored. While in the latter, the relevant practices in modern times are systematically analyzed as three phases–the Embryonic Period (1949 - 1980), the Systematic Practice (1981 - 2000), as well as the Integrated Trend and Prosperity (2001 - present). As a conclusion, the generalized flexibility is tentatively discussed.

Keywords: flexibility, long-term effectiveness, variety, social background

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Authors: Abdulkarim Yusuf

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Motivation: A crucial but difficult goal for governments and policymakers in Nigeria in recent years has been the sustainability of economic growth. This goal must be accomplished by regulating or lowering greenhouse gas emissions, which calls for switching to a low- or zero-carbon production system. The lack of in-depth empirical studies on the environmental impact of socioeconomic variables on Nigeria and a number of unresolved issues from earlier research is what led to the current study. Objective: This study fills an important empirical gap by investigating the existence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis and the long and short-run dynamic impact of socioeconomic variables on ecological sustainability in Nigeria. Data and method: Annual time series data covering the period 1980 to 2020 and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag technique in the presence of structural breaks were adopted for this study. Results: The empirical findings support the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for Nigeria in the long and short run. Energy consumption and total import exacerbate environmental deterioration in the long and short run, whereas total export improves environmental quality in the long and short run. Financial development, which contributed to a conspicuous decrease in the level of environmental destruction in the long run, escalated it in the short run. In contrast, urbanization caused a significant increase in environmental damage in the long run but motivated a decrease in biodiversity loss in the short run. Implications: The government, policymakers, and all energy stakeholders should take additional measures to ensure the implementation and diversification of energy sources to accommodate more renewable energy sources that emit less carbon in order to promote efficiency in Nigeria's production processes and lower carbon emissions. In order to promote the production and trade of environmentally friendly goods, they should also revise and strengthen environmental policies. With affordable, dependable, and sustainable energy use for higher productivity and inclusive growth, Nigeria will be able to achieve its long-term development goals of good health and wellbeing.

Keywords: economic growth, energy consumption, environmental degradation, environmental Kuznets curve, urbanization, Nigeria

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Authors: Surayyo Shaamirova, Anwar Hasan Abdullah Othman

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This study investigates the co-integration association between the top 10 cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Bitcoin Cash, EOS, Cardano, Litecoin, Stellar, IOTA, and NEO. The study applies Johansen Juselius co-integration test to examine the long-run co-integration and utilize the Engle and Granger casualty test to examine the short-run relationship. The findings of the study show that there is a strong co-integration relationship among the cryptocurrencies; however, in the short run, there is no causal relationship among the crypto currencies. These results, therefore, suggest that there are portfolio diversification opportunities in the cryptocurrencies industry when it comes to long run investment decisions, on the other hand, the cryptocurrencies industry shows the characteristics of efficiency in the short-run. This is an indication of a non-speculation investment in the cryptocurrencies industry in the short term investment.

Keywords: cryptocurrencies, Johansen-Juselius co-integration test, Engle and Granger casualty test, portfolio diversification

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Authors: Jackson Niyongabo

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This study addresses a notable gap in the existing literature on the relationship between energy consumption, economic growth, and CO₂ emissions, particularly within the African context. While numerous studies have explored these dynamics globally and regionally across various development levels, few have delved into the nuances of regions and income levels specific to African countries. Furthermore, the evaluation of the interplay between green growth policies, green energy technologies, and their impact on environmental quality has been underexplored. This research aims to fill these gaps by conducting a comprehensive analysis of the transition from conventional economic growth and energy consumption to a paradigm of green growth coupled with green energy utilization across the African continent from 1980 to 2018. The study is structured into three main parts: an empirical examination of the long-term effects of energy intensity, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth on CO₂ emissions across diverse African regions and income levels; an estimation of the long-term impact of green growth and green energy use on CO₂ emissions for countries implementing green policies within Africa, as well as at regional and global levels; and a comparative analysis of the impact of green growth policies on environmental degradation before and after implementation. Employing advanced econometric methods and panel estimators, the study utilizes a testing framework, panel unit tests, and various estimators to derive meaningful insights. The anticipated results and conclusions will be elucidated through causality tests, impulse response, and variance decomposition analyses, contributing valuable knowledge to the discourse on sustainable development in the African context.

Keywords: economic growth, green growth, energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, econometric models, green energy

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Authors: Bahareh Golchin, Nooshin Riahi

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One of the most significant issues as attended a lot in recent years is that of recognizing the sentiments and emotions in social media texts. The analysis of sentiments and emotions is intended to recognize the conceptual information such as the opinions, feelings, attitudes and emotions of people towards the products, services, organizations, people, topics, events and features in the written text. These indicate the greatness of the problem space. In the real world, businesses and organizations are always looking for tools to gather ideas, emotions, and directions of people about their products, services, or events related to their own. This article uses the Twitter social network, one of the most popular social networks with about 420 million active users, to extract data. Using this social network, users can share their information and opinions about personal issues, policies, products, events, etc. It can be used with appropriate classification of emotional states due to the availability of its data. In this study, supervised learning and deep neural network algorithms are used to classify the emotional states of Twitter users. The use of deep learning methods to increase the learning capacity of the model is an advantage due to the large amount of available data. Tweets collected on various topics are classified into four classes using a combination of two Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory network and a Convolutional network. The results obtained from this study with an average accuracy of 93%, show good results extracted from the proposed framework and improved accuracy compared to previous work.

Keywords: emotion classification, sentiment analysis, social networks, deep neural networks

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Authors: Sarah Crawford, Gerry Lesley

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This research is a pre-clinical assessment of anti-cancer effects of novel non-steroidal diethyl stilbestrol-like estrogen analogs in estrogen-receptor positive/ progesterone-receptor positive human breast cancer microtumors of MCF 7 cell line. Tamoxifen analog formulation (Tam A1) was used as a single agent or in combination with therapeutic concentrations of 4-hydroxytamoxifen, currently used as a long-term treatment for the prevention of breast cancer recurrence in women with estrogen receptor positive/ progesterone receptor positive malignancies. At concentrations ranging from 30-50 microM, Tam A1 induced microtumor disaggregation and cell death. Incremental cytotoxic effects correlated with increasing concentrations of Tam A1. Live tumor microscopy showed that microtumos displayed diffuse borders and substrate-attached cells were rounded-up and poorly adherent. A complete cytotoxic effect was observed using 40-50 microM Tam A1 with time course kinetics similar to 4-hydroxytamoxifen. Combined treatment with TamA1 (30-50 microM) and 4-hydroxytamoxifen (10-15 microM) induced a highly cytotoxic, synergistic combined treatment response that was more rapid and complete than using 4-hydroxytamoxifen as a single agent therapeutic. Microtumors completely dispersed or formed necrotic foci indicating a highly cytotoxic combined treatment response. Moreover, breast cancer microtumors treated with both 4-hydroxytamoxifen and Tam A1 displayed lower levels of long-term post-treatment regrowth, a critical parameter of primary drug resistance, than observed for 4-hydroxytamoxifen when used as a single agent therapeutic. Tumor regrowth at 6 weeks post-treatment with either single agent 4-hydroxy tamoxifen, Tam A1 or a combined treatment was assessed for the development of drug resistance. Breast cancer cells treated with both 4-hydroxytamoxifen and Tam A1 displayed significantly lower levels of post-treatment regrowth, indicative of decreased drug resistance, than observed for either single treatment modality. The preclinical data suggest that combined treatment involving the use of tamoxifen analogs may be a novel clinical approach for long-term maintenance therapy in patients with estrogen-receptor positive/progesterone-receptor positive breast cancer receiving hormonal therapy to prevent disease recurrence. Detailed data on time-course, IC50 and tumor regrowth assays post- treatment as well as a proposed mechanism of action to account for observed synergistic drug effects will be presented.

Keywords: 4-hydroxytamoxifen, tamoxifen analog, drug-resistance, microtumors

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Authors: Ephraim Ugwu, Christopher Ehinomen

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Despite efforts by the Nigerian government to harmonize the macroeconomic policy implementations by establishing various committees to resolve disputes between the fiscal and monetary authorities, it is still evident that the federal government had continued its expansionary policy by increasing spending, thus creating huge budget deficit. This study evaluates the effect of macroeconomic policy coordination on economic growth uncertainty in Nigeria from 1980 to 2020. Employing the Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing procedures, the empirical results shows that the error correction term, ECM(-1), indicates a negative sign and is significant statistically with the t-statistic value of (-5.612882 ). Therefore, the gap between long run equilibrium value and the actual value of the dependent variable is corrected with speed of adjustment equal to 77% yearly. The long run coefficient results showed that the estimated coefficients of the intercept term indicates that other things remains the same (ceteris paribus), the economics growth uncertainty will continue reduce by 7.32%. The coefficient of the fiscal policy variable, PUBEXP, indicates a positive sign and significant statistically. This implies that as the government expenditure increases by 1%, economic growth uncertainty will increase by 1.67%. The coefficient of monetary policy variable MS also indicates a positive sign and insignificant statistically. The coefficients of merchandise trade variable, TRADE and exchange rate EXR show negative signs and significant statistically. This indicate that as the country’s merchandise trade and the rate of exchange increases by 1%, the economic growth uncertainty reduces by 0.38% and 0.06%, respectively. This study, therefore, advocate for proper coordination of monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies in order to actualize the goal of achieving a stable economic growth.

Keywords: macroeconomic, policy coordination, growth uncertainty, ARDL, Nigeria

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Load forecasting has become crucial in recent years and become popular in forecasting area. Many different power forecasting models have been tried out for this purpose. Electricity load forecasting is necessary for energy policies, healthy and reliable grid systems. Effective power forecasting of renewable energy load leads the decision makers to minimize the costs of electric utilities and power plants. Forecasting tools are required that can be used to predict how much renewable energy can be utilized. The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of LSTM-based neural networks for estimating renewable energy loads. In this study, we present models for predicting renewable energy loads based on deep neural networks, especially the Long Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms. Deep learning allows multiple layers of models to learn representation of data. LSTM algorithms are able to store information for long periods of time. Deep learning models have recently been used to forecast the renewable energy sources such as predicting wind and solar energy power. Historical load and weather information represent the most important variables for the inputs within the power forecasting models. The dataset contained power consumption measurements are gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. Models use publicly available data from the Turkish Renewable Energy Resources Support Mechanism. Forecasting studies have been carried out with these data via deep neural networks approach including LSTM technique for Turkish electricity markets. 432 different models are created by changing layers cell count and dropout. The adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) algorithm is used for training as a gradient-based optimizer instead of SGD (stochastic gradient). ADAM performed better than SGD in terms of faster convergence and lower error rates. Models performance is compared according to MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error). Best five MAE results out of 432 tested models are 0.66, 0.74, 0.85 and 1.09. The forecasting performance of the proposed LSTM models gives successful results compared to literature searches.

Keywords: deep learning, long short term memory, energy, renewable energy load forecasting

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Authors: Kimberly Tasha Jiayi Tang, Changqing Lin, Zhe Wang, Tze-Wai Wong, Md. Shakhaoat Hossain, Jian Yu, Alexis Lau

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Hong Kong has practiced a risk-based Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) system that sums hospitalization risks associated with short-term exposure to air pollu-tants. As an air pollution risk communication tool, it informs the public about the current air quality, anchoring around the World Health Organization's (WHO) 2005 Air Quality Guidelines (AQGs). Given the WHO's recent update in 2021, assessing how Hong Kong’s air quality risk communication can be en-hanced using these updated guidelines is essential. Hong Kong’s AQHI is lim-ited by solely focusing on short-term health risks, which could lead the public to underestimate cumulative health impacts. Therefore, we propose the intro-duction of a composite AQHI that reports both long-term and short-term health risks. Additionally, the WHO interim targets will be considered as anchor points for various health risk categories. Furthermore, with the increasing ozone levels in Hong Kong and Southern China due to improved NOx mitigation measures, it has been a challenging task in balancing health protection against climate mitigation. However, our findings present a promising outlook. Despite the rise in ozone levels, the combined health risks in Hong Kong and Guang-dong have seen a decline, largely due to reductions in NO2 and PM concentra-tions, both having significant health implications. By shifting from a concentra-tion-based approach to a health risk-based system like the AQHI, our study highlights the prospective of harmonizing health protection and climate mitiga-tion goals. This health-focused framework suggests that rigorous NOx controls can effective-ly serve both objectives in parallel.

Keywords: air quality management, air quality health index, health risk management, air pollution

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Authors: Caio E. G. Reis, Sara Wassell, Adriana L. Porto, Angélica A. Amato, Leslie J. C. Bluck, Teresa H. M. da Costa

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Background: Multiple epidemiologic studies have consistently reported association between increased coffee consumption and a lowered risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus. However, the mechanisms behind this finding have not been fully elucidated. Objective: We investigate the effect of coffee (caffeinated and decaffeinated) on glucose effectiveness and insulin sensitivity using the stable isotope minimal model protocol with oral glucose administration in healthy men. Design: Fifteen healthy men underwent 5 arms randomized crossover single-blinding (researchers) clinical trial. They consumed decaffeinated coffee, caffeinated coffee (with and without sugar), and controls – water (with and without sugar) followed 1 hour by an oral glucose tolerance test (75 g of available carbohydrate) with intravenous labeled dosing interpreted by the two compartment minimal model (225 minutes). One-way ANOVA with Bonferroni adjustment were used to compare the effects of the tested beverages on glucose metabolism parameters. Results: Decaffeinated coffee resulted in 29% and 85% higher insulin sensitivity compared with caffeinated coffee and water, respectively, and the caffeinated coffee showed 15% and 60% higher glucose effectiveness compared with decaffeinated coffee and water, respectively. However, these differences were not significant (p > 0.10). In overall analyze (0 – 225 min) there were no significant differences on glucose effectiveness, insulin sensitivity, and glucose and insulin area under the curve between the groups. The beneficial effects of coffee did not seem to act in the short-term (hours) on glucose metabolism parameters mainly on insulin sensitivity indices. The benefits of coffee consumption occur in the long-term (years) as has been shown in the reduction of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus risk in epidemiological studies. The clinical relevance of the present findings is that there is no need to avoid coffee as the drink choice for healthy people. Conclusions: The findings of this study demonstrate that the consumption of caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee with or without sugar has no acute effects on glucose metabolism in healthy men. Further researches, including long-term interventional studies, are needed to fully elucidate the mechanisms behind the coffee effects on reduced risk for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

Keywords: coffee, diabetes mellitus type 2, glucose, insulin

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Authors: Lu Zhao, Nadir Farhi, Yeltsin Valero, Zoi Christoforou, Nadia Haddadou

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In this paper, a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model is proposed to replicate simultaneously car-following and lane-changing behaviors in road networks. By combining two kinds of LSTM layers and three input designs of the neural network, six variants of the LSTM model have been created. These models were trained and tested on the NGSIM 101 dataset, and the results were evaluated in terms of longitudinal speed and lateral position, respectively. Then, we compared the LSTM model with a classical car-following model (the intelligent driving model (IDM)) in the part of speed decision. In addition, the LSTM model is compared with a model using classical neural networks. After the comparison, the LSTM model demonstrates higher accuracy than the physical model IDM in terms of car-following behavior and displays better performance with regard to both car-following and lane-changing behavior compared to the classical neural network model.

Keywords: traffic modeling, neural networks, LSTM, car-following, lane-change

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Authors: Camille Alexis-Garsee, Nicola Payne

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One consequence of the pandemic has been the debilitating health impact that some people experience over a longer period of time, known as long-COVID. This has been predominately researched in adults; however, there is emerging evidence on the effects of long-COVID in children. Research has indicated over half of children who contracted COVID-19 experienced persistent symptoms four months after a confirmed diagnosis. There is little research on the impact of this on children and their families. This study aimed to explore the experiences of children with long-COVID, to enable further understanding of the impacts and needs within this group. Semi-structured interviews, facilitated by children’s drawings, were conducted with 15 children (aged 9-16, 9 females). Inductive thematic analysis was used to analyze the data. The findings tell a story of loss, change and of resilience. Many children were unable to engage in normal daily activities and were unable to attend school, however, all employed self-management techniques to cope with symptoms and were positive for the future. Four main themes were identified: (1) Education challenges: although some schools tried to accommodate the child’s new limitations with provision of flexi-attendance, online classes and a reduced timetable, children struggled to keep up with their schoolwork and needed more support; (2) Disrupted relationships: children felt socially isolated; they were forced to give up co and extra-curricular activities, were no longer in contact with friendship groups and missed out on key experiences with friends and family; (3) Diverse health-related challenges: children’s symptoms affected daily functioning but were also triggers for changes in thoughts and mood; (4) Coping and resilience: children actively engaged in symptom management and were able to ‘self-pace’ and/or employ distraction activities to cope. They were also focused on living a ‘normal’ life and looked to the future with great positivity. A key challenge of the long-term effects of COVID is recognizing and treating the illness in children and the subsequent impact on multiple aspects of their lives. Even though children described feeling disconnected in many ways, their life goals were still important. A multi-faceted approach is needed for management of this illness, with a focus on helping these children successfully reintegrate into society and achieve their dreams.

Keywords: children’s illness experience, COVID-19, long-COVID in children, long-COVID kids, qualitative research

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Authors: Lim Poh Im

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This paper examines the current strategic and planning issues in the provision of affordable housing in urban centres in Malaysia from the perspective of sustainability. Sustainability here refers to social sustainability such as the need to address urban poverty and ensure better quality of life; economic sustainability in ensuring that the financial mechanisms are healthy and stable in the long-run, and to a lesser extent, environmental sustainability in reducing pollution related problems and building footprint. The Malaysian affordable housing sector has undergone tremendous transformations since the sixties, transcending from the earlier social housing catering to the poorer strata of the society, to the current state of housing woes plaguing the young urban middle class. The increase in urban land prices and construction costs, coupled with rampant property speculative and manipulative activities have resulted in situations of housing that are largely unaffordable even to the middle income sector of the urban populations. To overcome such scenario, the public as well as private sectors in the recent years, have came up with various intermediate, as well as medium-term policies aimed to curb the burning housing needs of the urban populations. Key strategies include financial intervention in regulating the interests rates, imposing property gain taxes; loosening the requirement for density and other planning requirements, faster approval of projects, compulsory contribution from developers, etc. Some of the policies are commendable, while others are ad-hoc by nature, and are not able to resolve the long-term socio-economic challenges. This paper discusses and examines the issues from the ‘sustainability’ perspective, focusing on key fiscal, land use and planning policies, as well as the more subtle (but important) political and institutional factors shaping the provision of mass housing for the urban populations in Malaysia.

Keywords: affordable housing, urban housing, sustainable housing, planning for urban housing

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Authors: Farhia Hassan Mohamed

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This study examined the macroeconomic factors that affect the inflation Rate in Somalia using quarterly time series data from 1991q1 to 2017q4 retired from World Development Indicators and SESRIC. It employed the vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger Causality method to measure the long-run and short-run causality of the GDP, inflation exchange rate, and unemployment. The study confirmed that there is one cointegration equation between GDP, exchange rate, inflation, and unemployment in Somalia. However, the VECM model's result indicates a long-run relationship among variables. The VEC Granger causality/Block Exogeneity Wald test result confirmed that all covariates are statistically significant at 5% and are Granger's cause of inflation in the short term. Finally, the impulse response result showed that inflation responds negatively to the shocks from the exchange rate and unemployment rate and positively to GDP and itself. Drawing from the empirical findings, the study makes several policy recommendations for both the monetary and Government sides.

Keywords: CPI, OP, exchange rate, inflation ADF, Johansen, PP, VECM, impulse, ECT

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Authors: Chueh Chi-An, Chan Hui-Ya

Abstract:

Background and Aim: National Health Insurance (NHI) Administration released a new reimbursement policy for hospital patients who received a superior discharge plan on April 1, 2016. Each case could be claimed 1,500 points for fee-of service with related documents. The policy is considered a solution to help reducing the crowding in the emergency department, the length of stay of hospital, unplanned readmission rate and unplanned ER visit. This study aim is to explore the effect of the new reimbursement policy for discharge planning service in a medical center. Methods: The discharge team explained to general wards the new policy and encouraged early assessment, communication and connecting to community care for patients. They stated the benefit from the policy and asked documenting for reimbursement claiming from April to May 2016. The imbursement fee of NHI declaration from June 2015 to October 2017 was collected. The indicators included hospital occupancy rate, hospital bed turnover rate, long-term hospitalization rate, and patients’ satisfaction were analyzed after the policy implemented. Results: The results showed that the amount of service declaration was increasing from 2 cases in February 2016 to 110 cases in October 2017, the application rate was increasing from 0.029% to 1.576% of all inpatient cases, and the average payment from NHI was around 148,500 NT dollars per month in 2017. There are no significant differences in the indicators among hospital occupancy rate, hospital bed turnover rate, long-term hospitalization rate, and patients’ satisfaction. Conclusion: To provide a good discharge plan require a specialized case manager, the new reimbursement policy is too complicated and the total fee-of-service hospital could claim is too limited to hiring one. The results suggest more strategies combine with the new reimbursement policy will be needed.

Keywords: discharge planning, reimbursement, unplanned ER visit, readmission rate

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Authors: Koryukaeva Ksenia, Jinfeng Sun

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Europe has been a traditional importer of Russian natural gas for more than 50 years. In 2021, Russian state-owned company Gazprom supplied about a third of all gas consumed in Europe. The Russia-Europe mutual dependence in terms of natural gas supplies has been causing many concerns about the energy security of the two sides for a long period of time. These days the issue has become more urgent than ever considering recent Russian invasion in Ukraine followed by increased large-scale geopolitical conflicts, making the future of Russian natural gas supplies and global gas markets as well highly uncertain. Hence, the main purpose of this study is to get insight into the possible futures of Russian pipeline natural gas exports by a scenario planning method based on Monte-Carlo simulation within LUSS model framework, and propose Russian pipeline natural gas export strategies based on the obtained scenario planning results. The scenario analysis revealed that recent geopolitical disputes disturbed the traditional, longstanding model of Russian pipeline gas exports, and, as a result, the prospects and the pathways for Russian pipeline gas on the world markets will differ significantly from those before 2022. Specifically, our main findings show, that (i) the events of 2022 generated many uncertainties for the long-term future of Russian pipeline gas export perspectives on both western and eastern supply directions, including geopolitical, regulatory, economic, infrastructure and other uncertainties; (ii) according to scenario modelling results, Russian pipeline exports will face many challenges in the future, both on western and eastern directions. A decrease in pipeline gas exports will inevitably affect country’s natural gas production and significantly reduce fossil fuel export revenues, jeopardizing the energy security of the country; (iii) according to proposed strategies, in order to ensure the long-term stable export supplies in the changing environment, Russia may need to adjust its traditional export strategy by performing export flows and product diversification, entering new markets, adapting its contracting mechanism, increasing competitiveness and gaining a reputation of a reliable gas supplier.

Keywords: Russian natural gas, Pipeline natural gas, Uncertainty, Scenario simulation, Export strategy

Procedia PDF Downloads 40