Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7654

Search results for: Engle and Granger casualty test

7654 Opportunities of Diversification Strategy Investment among the Top Ten Cryptocurrencies in Crypto Industry

Authors: Surayyo Shaamirova, Anwar Hasan Abdullah Othman


This study investigates the co-integration association between the top 10 cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Bitcoin Cash, EOS, Cardano, Litecoin, Stellar, IOTA, and NEO. The study applies Johansen Juselius co-integration test to examine the long-run co-integration and utilize the Engle and Granger casualty test to examine the short-run relationship. The findings of the study show that there is a strong co-integration relationship among the cryptocurrencies; however, in the short run, there is no causal relationship among the crypto currencies. These results, therefore, suggest that there are portfolio diversification opportunities in the cryptocurrencies industry when it comes to long run investment decisions, on the other hand, the cryptocurrencies industry shows the characteristics of efficiency in the short-run. This is an indication of a non-speculation investment in the cryptocurrencies industry in the short term investment.

Keywords: cryptocurrencies, Johansen-Juselius co-integration test, Engle and Granger casualty test, portfolio diversification

Procedia PDF Downloads 45
7653 Income-Consumption Relationships in Pakistan (1980-2011): A Cointegration Approach

Authors: Himayatullah Khan, Alena Fedorova


The present paper analyses the income-consumption relationships in Pakistan using annual time series data from 1980-81 to 2010-1. The paper uses the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check the unit root and stationarity in these two time series. The paper finds that the two time series are nonstationary but stationary at their first difference levels. The Augmented Engle-Granger test and the Cointegrating Regression Durbin-Watson test imply that the two time series of consumption and income are cointegrated and that long-run marginal propensity to consume is 0.88 which is given by the estimated (static) equilibrium relation. The paper also used the error correction mechanism to find out to model dynamic relationship. The purpose of the ECM is to indicate the speed of adjustment from the short-run equilibrium to the long-run equilibrium state. The results show that MPC is equal to 0.93 and is highly significant. The coefficient of Engle-Granger residuals is negative but insignificant. Statistically, the equilibrium error term is zero, which suggests that consumption adjusts to changes in GDP in the same period. The short-run changes in GDP have a positive impact on short-run changes in consumption. The paper concludes that we may interpret 0.93 as the short-run MPC. The pair-wise Granger Causality test shows that both GDP and consumption Granger cause each other.

Keywords: cointegrating regression, Augmented Dickey Fuller test, Augmented Engle-Granger test, Granger causality, error correction mechanism

Procedia PDF Downloads 325
7652 Co-Integration and Error Correction Mechanism of Supply Response of Sugarcane in Pakistan (1980-2012)

Authors: Himayatullah Khan


This study estimates supply response function of sugarcane in Pakistan from 1980-81 to 2012-13. The study uses co-integration approach and error correction mechanism. Sugarcane production, area and price series were tested for unit root using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF). The study found that these series were stationary at their first differenced level. Using the Augmented Engle-Granger test and Cointegrating Regression Durbin-Watson (CRDW) test, the study found that “production and price” and “area and price” were co-integrated suggesting that the two sets of time series had long-run or equilibrium relationship. The results of the error correction models for the two sets of series showed that there was disequilibrium in the short run there may be disequilibrium. The Engle-Granger residual may be thought of as the equilibrium error which can be used to tie the short-run behavior of the dependent variable to its long-run value. The Granger-Causality test results showed that log of price granger caused both the long of production and log of area whereas, the log of production and log of area Granger caused each other.

Keywords: co-integration, error correction mechanism, Granger-causality, sugarcane, supply response

Procedia PDF Downloads 362
7651 A Periodogram-Based Spectral Method Approach: The Relationship between Tourism and Economic Growth in Turkey

Authors: Mesut BALIBEY, Serpil TÜRKYILMAZ


A popular topic in the econometrics and time series area is the cointegrating relationships among the components of a nonstationary time series. Engle and Granger’s least squares method and Johansen’s conditional maximum likelihood method are the most widely-used methods to determine the relationships among variables. Furthermore, a method proposed to test a unit root based on the periodogram ordinates has certain advantages over conventional tests. Periodograms can be calculated without any model specification and the exact distribution under the assumption of a unit root is obtained. For higher order processes the distribution remains the same asymptotically. In this study, in order to indicate advantages over conventional test of periodograms, we are going to examine a possible relationship between tourism and economic growth during the period 1999:01-2010:12 for Turkey by using periodogram method, Johansen’s conditional maximum likelihood method, Engle and Granger’s ordinary least square method.

Keywords: cointegration, economic growth, periodogram ordinate, tourism

Procedia PDF Downloads 194
7650 The Influence of Oil Price Fluctuations on Macroeconomics Variables of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Authors: Khalid Mujaljal, Hassan Alhajhoj


This paper empirically investigates the influence of oil price fluctuations on the key macroeconomic variables of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia using unrestricted VAR methodology. Two analytical tools- Granger-causality and variance decomposition are used. The Granger-causality test reveals that almost all specifications of oil price shocks significantly Granger-cause GDP and demonstrates evidence of causality between oil price changes and money supply (M3) and consumer price index percent (CPIPC) in the case of positive oil price shocks. Surprisingly, almost all specifications of oil price shocks do not Granger-cause government expenditure. The outcomes from variance decomposition analysis suggest that positive oil shocks contribute about 25 percent in causing inflation in the country. Also, contribution of symmetric linear oil price shocks and asymmetric positive oil price shocks is significant and persistent with 25 percent explaining variation in world consumer price index till end of the period.

Keywords: Granger causality, oil prices changes, Saudi Arabian economy, variance decomposition

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7649 An Empirical Investigation into the Effect of Macroeconomic Policy on Economic Growth in Nigeria

Authors: Rakiya Abba


This paper investigates the effect of the money supply, exchange and interest rate on economic growth in Nigeria through the application of Augmented Dickey-Fuller technique in testing the unit root property of the series and Granger causality test of causation between GDP, money supply, the exchange, and interest rate. The results of unit root suggest that all the variables in the model are stationary at 1, 5 and 10 percent level of significance, and the results of Causality suggest that money supply and exchange granger cause IR, the result further reveals two – way causation existed between M2 and EXR while IR granger cause GDP the null hypothesis is rejected and GDP does not granger cause IR as indicated by their probability values of 0.4805 and confirmed by F-statistics values of 0.75483. The results revealed that M2 and EXR do not granger causes GDP, the null hypothesis is accepted at 75percent 18percent respectively as indicated by their probability values of 0.7472 and 0.1830 respectively; also, GDP does not granger cause M2 and EXR. The Johansen cointegration result indicates that despite GDP does not granger cause M2, IR, and EXR, but there existed 1 cointegrating equation, implying the existence of long-run relationship between GDP, M2 IR, and EXR. A major policy implication of this result is that economic growth is function of and money supply and exchange rate, effective monetary policies should direct on manipulating instruments and importance should be placed on justification for adopting a particular policy be rationalized in order to increase growth in economy

Keywords: economic growth, money supply, interest rate, exchange rate, causality

Procedia PDF Downloads 197
7648 Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions: Evidence from WAIFEM Member Countries

Authors: Nasiru Inuwa, Haruna Usman Modibbo, Yahya Zakari Abdullahi


The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth on carbon emissions in context of WAIFEM member countries. The Im-Pesaran-Shin panel unit root test, Kao residual based test panel cointegration technique and panel Granger causality tests over the period 1980-2012 within a multivariate framework were applied. The results of cointegration test revealed a long run equilibrium relationship among CO2 emissions, economic growth and foreign direct investment. The results of Granger causality tests revealed a unidirectional causality running from economic growth to CO2 emissions for the panel of WAIFEM countries at the 5% level. Also, Granger causality runs from economic growth to foreign direct investment without feedback. However, no causality relationship between foreign direct investment and CO2 emissions for the panel of WAIFEM countries was observed. The study therefore, suggest that policy makers from WAIFEM member countries should design policies aim at attracting more foreign direct investments inflow as well the adoption of cleaner production technologies in order to reduce CO2 emissions.

Keywords: economic growth, CO2 emissions, causality, WAIFEM

Procedia PDF Downloads 472
7647 Environmental Impact of Trade Sector Growth: Evidence from Tanzania

Authors: Mosses E. Lufuke


This paper attempted to investigate whether there is Granger-causality running from trade to environment as evidenced in the changing climatic condition and land degradation. Using Tanzania as the reference, VAR-Granger-causality test was employed to rationalize the conundrum of causal-effect relationship between trade and environment. The changing climatic condition, as the proxy of both nitrous oxide emissions (in thousand metric tons of CO2 equivalent) and land degradation measured by the size of arable land were tested against trade using both exports and imports variables. The result indicated that neither of the trade variables Granger-cause the variability on gas emissions and arable land size. This suggests the possibility that all trade concerns in relation to environment to have been internalized in domestic policies to offset any likely negative consequence.

Keywords: environment, growth, impact, trade

Procedia PDF Downloads 248
7646 Is the Okun's Law Valid in Tunisia?

Authors: El Andari Chifaa, Bouaziz Rached


The central focus of this paper was to check whether the Okun’s law in Tunisia is valid or not. For this purpose, we have used quarterly time series data during the period 1990Q1-2014Q1. Firstly, we applied the error correction model instead of the difference version of Okun's Law, the Engle-Granger and Johansen test are employed to find out long run association between unemployment, production, and how error correction mechanism (ECM) is used for short run dynamic. Secondly, we used the gap version of Okun’s law where the estimation is done from three band pass filters which are mathematical tools used in macro-economic and especially in business cycles theory. The finding of the study indicates that the inverse relationship between unemployment and output is verified in the short and long term, and the Okun's law holds for the Tunisian economy, but with an Okun’s coefficient lower than required. Therefore, our empirical results have important implications for structural and cyclical policymakers in Tunisia to promote economic growth in a context of lower unemployment growth.

Keywords: Okun’s law, validity, unit root, cointegration, error correction model, bandpass filters

Procedia PDF Downloads 241
7645 Health Outcomes and Economic Growth Nexus: Testing for Long-run Relationships and Causal Links in Nigeria

Authors: Haruna Modibbo Usman, Mustapha Muktar, Nasiru Inuwa


This paper examined the long run relationship between health outcomes and economic growth in Nigeria from 1961 to 2012. Using annual time series data, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test is conducted to check the stochastic properties of the variables. Also, the long run relationship among the variables is confirmed based on Johansen Multivariate Cointegration approach whereas the long run and short run dynamics are observed using Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM). In addition, VEC Granger causality test is employed to examine the direction of causality among the variables. On the whole, the results obtained revealed the existence of a long run relationship between health outcomes and economic growth in Nigeria and that both life expectancy and crude death rate as measures of health are found to have a long run negative and statistically significant impact on the economic growth over the study period. This is further buttressed by the results of Granger causality test which indicated the existence of unidirectional causality running from life expectancy and crude death rate to economic growth. The study therefore, calls for governments at various levels to create preconditions for health improvements in Nigeria in order to boost the level of health outcomes.

Keywords: cointegration, economic growth, Granger causality, health outcomes, VECM

Procedia PDF Downloads 400
7644 Nexus of Pakistan Stock Exchange with World's Top Five Stock Markets after Launching China Pakistan Economic Corridor

Authors: Abdul Rauf, Xiaoxing Liu, Waqas Amin


Stock markets are fascinating more and more conductive to each other due to liberalization and globalization trends in recent years. China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has dragged Pakistan stock exchange to the new heights and global investors are making investments to reap its benefits. So, in investors and government perspective, the study focuses co-integration of Pakistan stock exchange with world’s five big economies i-e US, China, England, Japan, and France. The time period of study is seven years i-e 2010 to 2016 and daily values of major indices of corresponding stock exchanges collected. All variables of that particular study are stationary at first difference confirmed by unit root test. The study Johansen system co integration test for analysis of data along with Granger causality test is performed for result purpose. Co integration test asserted that Pakistan stock exchange integrated with Shanghai stock exchange (SSE) and NIKKEI stock exchange in short run. Granger causality test also proclaimed these results. But NASDAQ, FTSE, DAX not co integrated and Granger cause at a short run but long run these markets are bonded with Pakistan stock exchange (KSE). VECM also confirmed this liaison in short and long run. Investors, therefore, need to be updated regarding co-integration of world’s stock exchanges to ensure well diversified and risk adjusted high returns. Equally, governments also need updated status so that they could reduce co-integration through multiple steps and hence drag investors for diversified investment.

Keywords: CPEC, DAX, FTSE, liberalization, NASDAQ, NIKKEI, SSE, stock markets

Procedia PDF Downloads 230
7643 Dynamic Interaction between Renwable Energy Consumption and Sustainable Development: Evidence from Ecowas Region

Authors: Maman Ali M. Moustapha, Qian Yu, Benjamin Adjei Danquah


This paper investigates the dynamic interaction between renewable energy consumption (REC) and economic growth using dataset from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) from 2002 to 2016. For this study the Autoregressive Distributed Lag- Bounds test approach (ARDL) was used to examine the long run relationship between real gross domestic product and REC, while VECM based on Granger causality has been used to examine the direction of Granger causality. Our empirical findings indicate that REC has significant and positive impact on real gross domestic product. In addition, we found that REC and the percentage of access to electricity had unidirectional Granger causality to economic growth while carbon dioxide emission has bidirectional Granger causality to economic growth. Our findings indicate also that 1 per cent increase in the REC leads to an increase in Real GDP by 0.009 in long run. Thus, REC can be a means to ensure sustainable economic growth in the ECOWAS sub-region. However, it is necessary to increase further support and investments on renewable energy production in order to speed up sustainable economic development throughout the region

Keywords: Economic Growth, Renewable Energy, Sustainable Development, Sustainable Energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 68
7642 A Study of Islamic Stock Indices and Macroeconomic Variables

Authors: Mohammad Irfan


The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship among the key macroeconomic variables and Islamic stock market in India. This study is based on the time series data of financial years 2009-2015 to explore the consistency of relationship between macroeconomic variables and Shariah Indices. The ADF (Augmented Dickey–Fuller Test Statistic) and PP (Phillips–Perron Test Statistic) tests are employed to check stationarity of the data. The study depicts the long run relationship between Shariah indices and macroeconomic variables by using the Johansen Co-integration test. BSE Shariah and Nifty Shariah have uni-direct Granger causality. The outcome of VECM is significantly confirming the applicability of best fitted model. Thus, Islamic stock indices are proficiently working for the development of Indian economy. It suggests that by keeping eyes on Islamic stock market which will be more interactive in the future with other macroeconomic variables.

Keywords: Indian Shariah Indices, macroeconomic variables, co-integration, Granger causality, vector error correction model (VECM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 206
7641 Relationship between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria (1971-2012)

Authors: N. E Okoligwe, Okezie A. Ihugba


Few scholars disagrees that electricity consumption is an important supporting factor for economy growth. However, the relationship between electricity consumption and economy growth has different manifestation in different countries according to previous studies. This paper examines the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for Nigeria. In an attempt to do this, the paper tests the validity of the modernization or depending hypothesis by employing various econometric tools such as Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Johansen Co-integration test, the Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) and Granger Causality test on time series data from 1971-2012. The Granger causality is found not to run from electricity consumption to real GDP and from GDP to electricity consumption during the year of study. The null hypothesis is accepted at the 5 per cent level of significance where the probability value (0.2251 and 0.8251) is greater than five per cent level of significance because both of them are probably determined by some other factors like; increase in urban population, unemployment rate and the number of Nigerians that benefit from the increase in GDP and increase in electricity demand is not determined by the increase in GDP (income) over the period of study because electricity demand has always been greater than consumption. Consequently; the policy makers in Nigeria should place priority in early stages of reconstruction on building capacity additions and infrastructure development of the electric power sector as this would force the sustainable economic growth in Nigeria.

Keywords: economic growth, electricity consumption, error correction mechanism, granger causality test

Procedia PDF Downloads 227
7640 Effects of International Trade on Economic Growth

Authors: Tanimola Kazeem Abiodun


In the paper, attempt was made to investigate the impact of international trade on economic growth at the disaggregate level both from the theoretical and economic angle. The study in its contribution examines this impact at the disaggregated level. To this end, a hypothesis was formulated to investigate the short ?run and long run impact of international trade on growth in the country. In the econometrics investigation that follow, international trade was disaggregated to export and imports and their short run and long run effect on growth was examined. Also, the aggregate international trade was also investigated to see the long run effects of its own growth. The results of the findings indicate that; both export and import impact significantly to growth in the short run. The long-run impact of export on growth was found to be positive, significant and stable both. Engle-Granger co integration test and error correlation mechanism were applied to these long run relationships. For the import, while the short run was found to be positive and significant on its impact on growth, the long run relationship was found to be negative but not significant. Therefore, it is thus recommended among others that the country should engage more on export promotion drives.

Keywords: international trade, disaggregated, import, export, econometrics, trade, economic growth, foreign trade, import, export

Procedia PDF Downloads 305
7639 Long-Run Relationship among Tehran Stock Exchange and the GCC Countries Financial Markets, Before and After 2007/2008 Financial Crisis

Authors: Mohammad Hossein Ranjbar, Mahdi Bagheri, B. Shivaraj


This study attempts to investigate the relationship between stock market of Iran and GCC countries stock exchanges. Eight markets were included: the stock market of Iran, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Oman. Daily country market indices were collected from January 2005 to December 2010. The potential time-varying behaviors of long-run stock market relationship among selected markets are tested applying correlation test, Augmented Dick Fuller test (ADF), Bilateral and Multilateral Cointegration (Johansen), and the Granger Causality test. The findings suggest that stock market of Iran is negatively correlated with most of the selected markets in the whole duration. But contemporaneous correlations among the eight selected markets are increased positively in period of financial crises. Bilateral Cointegration between selected markets suggests that there is no integration between Tehran stock exchange and other selected markets. Among other markets, except the stock market of Dubai and Abu Dhabi as a one pair, are not cointegrated in whole, but in duration of financial crises integration between selected markets are increased. Finally, investigation of the casual relationship among eight financial markets suggests there are unidirectional and bidirectional causal relationship among some of stock market indices.

Keywords: financial crises, Middle East, stock market integration, Granger Causality test, ARDL test

Procedia PDF Downloads 306
7638 The Usage of Bridge Estimator for Hegy Seasonal Unit Root Tests

Authors: Huseyin Guler, Cigdem Kosar


The aim of this study is to propose Bridge estimator for seasonal unit root tests. Seasonality is an important factor for many economic time series. Some variables may contain seasonal patterns and forecasts that ignore important seasonal patterns have a high variance. Therefore, it is very important to eliminate seasonality for seasonal macroeconomic data. There are some methods to eliminate the impacts of seasonality in time series. One of them is filtering the data. However, this method leads to undesired consequences in unit root tests, especially if the data is generated by a stochastic seasonal process. Another method to eliminate seasonality is using seasonal dummy variables. Some seasonal patterns may result from stationary seasonal processes, which are modelled using seasonal dummies but if there is a varying and changing seasonal pattern over time, so the seasonal process is non-stationary, deterministic seasonal dummies are inadequate to capture the seasonal process. It is not suitable to use seasonal dummies for modeling such seasonally nonstationary series. Instead of that, it is necessary to take seasonal difference if there are seasonal unit roots in the series. Different alternative methods are proposed in the literature to test seasonal unit roots, such as Dickey, Hazsa, Fuller (DHF) and Hylleberg, Engle, Granger, Yoo (HEGY) tests. HEGY test can be also used to test the seasonal unit root in different frequencies (monthly, quarterly, and semiannual). Another issue in unit root tests is the lag selection. Lagged dependent variables are added to the model in seasonal unit root tests as in the unit root tests to overcome the autocorrelation problem. In this case, it is necessary to choose the lag length and determine any deterministic components (i.e., a constant and trend) first, and then use the proper model to test for seasonal unit roots. However, this two-step procedure might lead size distortions and lack of power in seasonal unit root tests. Recent studies show that Bridge estimators are good in selecting optimal lag length while differentiating nonstationary versus stationary models for nonseasonal data. The advantage of this estimator is the elimination of the two-step nature of conventional unit root tests and this leads a gain in size and power. In this paper, the Bridge estimator is proposed to test seasonal unit roots in a HEGY model. A Monte-Carlo experiment is done to determine the efficiency of this approach and compare the size and power of this method with HEGY test. Since Bridge estimator performs well in model selection, our approach may lead to some gain in terms of size and power over HEGY test.

Keywords: bridge estimators, HEGY test, model selection, seasonal unit root

Procedia PDF Downloads 232
7637 Short-Long Term between Gross Domestic Product and Consumption in Indonesia

Authors: Teguh Sugiarto, Ahmad Subagyo, Ludiro Madu, Amir Mohammadian Amiri


Recently, the significant fluctuations accosiated with Indonesian economy justifies the need for paying more attention to this issue. In this regard, the main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between two issues related to the macro Indonesia economy called consumption and GDP during the period of 1967 to 2014. This research method exploits short term and long term relationships using Granger and subsequently, models them by the causality method . However, using analysis of Granger with Johansen shows that there is not only a long term, but also a short-long relationship between GDP and consumption using lags the interval 5.

Keywords: cointegration, Granger causality, GDP, consumption

Procedia PDF Downloads 256
7636 Transport Infrastructure and Economic Growth in South Africa

Authors: Abigail Mosetsanagape Mooketsi, Itumeleng Pleasure Mongale, Joel Hinaunye Eita


The aim of this study is to analyse the impact of transport infrastructure on economic growth in South Africa through Engle Granger two step approach using the data from 1970 to 2013. GDP is used as a proxy for economic growth whilst rail transport (rail lines, rail goods transported) and air transport(air passengers carried, air freight) are used as proxies for transport infrastructure. The results showed that there is a positive long-run relationship between transport infrastructure and economic growth. The results show that South Africa’s economic growth can be boosted by providing transport infrastructure. The estimated models were simulated and the results that the model is a good fit. The findings of this research will be beneficial to policy makers, academics and it will also enhance the ability of the investors to make informed decisions about investing in South Africa.

Keywords: transport, infrastructure, economic growth, South Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 296
7635 Determining the Direction of Causality between Creating Innovation and Technology Market

Authors: Liubov Evstigneeva


In this paper an attempt is made to establish causal nexuses between innovation and international trade in Russia. The topicality of this issue is determined by the necessity of choosing policy instruments for economic modernization and transition to innovative development. The vector auto regression (VAR) model and Granger test are applied for the Russian monthly data from 2005 until the second quartile of 2015. Both lagged import and export at the national level cause innovation, the latter starts to stimulate foreign trade since it is a remote lag. In comparison to aggregate data, the results by patent’s categories are more diverse. Importing technologies from foreign countries stimulates patent activity, while innovations created in Russia are only Granger causality for import to Commonwealth of Independent States.

Keywords: export, import, innovation, patents

Procedia PDF Downloads 261
7634 Investigating the Impacts on Cyclist Casualty Severity at Roundabouts: A UK Case Study

Authors: Nurten Akgun, Dilum Dissanayake, Neil Thorpe, Margaret C. Bell


Cycling has gained a great attention with comparable speeds, low cost, health benefits and reducing the impact on the environment. The main challenge associated with cycling is the provision of safety for the people choosing to cycle as their main means of transport. From the road safety point of view, cyclists are considered as vulnerable road users because they are at higher risk of serious casualty in the urban network but more specifically at roundabouts. This research addresses the development of an enhanced mathematical model by including a broad spectrum of casualty related variables. These variables were geometric design measures (approach number of lanes and entry path radius), speed limit, meteorological condition variables (light, weather, road surface) and socio-demographic characteristics (age and gender), as well as contributory factors. Contributory factors included driver’s behavior related variables such as failed to look properly, sudden braking, a vehicle passing too close to a cyclist, junction overshot, failed to judge other person’s path, restart moving off at the junction, poor turn or manoeuvre and disobeyed give-way. Tyne and Wear in the UK were selected as a case study area. The cyclist casualty data was obtained from UK STATS19 National dataset. The reference categories for the regression model were set to slight and serious cyclist casualties. Therefore, binary logistic regression was applied. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that approach number of lanes was statistically significant at the 95% level of confidence. A higher number of approach lanes increased the probability of severity of cyclist casualty occurrence. In addition, sudden braking statistically significantly increased the cyclist casualty severity at the 95% level of confidence. The result concluded that cyclist casualty severity was highly related to approach a number of lanes and sudden braking. Further research should be carried out an in-depth analysis to explore connectivity of sudden braking and approach number of lanes in order to investigate the driver’s behavior at approach locations. The output of this research will inform investment in measure to improve the safety of cyclists at roundabouts.

Keywords: binary logistic regression, casualty severity, cyclist safety, roundabout

Procedia PDF Downloads 112
7633 Stability or Instabilty? Triplet Deficit Analysis In Turkey

Authors: Zeynep Karaçor, Volkan Alptekin, Gökhan Akar, Tuba Akar


This paper aims to review the phenomenon of triplet deficit which is called interaction of budget balance that make up the overall balance of the economy, investment savings balance and current accounts balance in terms of Turkey. In this paper, triplet deficit state in Turkish economy has been analyzed with vector autoregressive model and Granger causality test using data covering the period of 1980-2010. According to VAR results, increase in current accounts is perceived on public sector borrowing requirement. These two variables influence each other bilaterally. Therefore, current accounts increase public deficit, whereas public deficit increases current accounts. It is not possible to mention the existence of a short-term Granger causality between variables at issue.

Keywords: internal and external deficit, stability, triplet deficit, Turkey economy

Procedia PDF Downloads 236
7632 Modeling Residential Electricity Consumption Function in Malaysia: Time Series Approach

Authors: L. L. Ivy-Yap, H. A. Bekhet


As the Malaysian residential electricity consumption continued to increase rapidly, effective energy policies, which address factors affecting residential electricity consumption, is urgently needed. This study attempts to investigate the relationship between residential electricity consumption (EC), real disposable income (Y), price of electricity (Pe) and population (Po) in Malaysia for 1978-2011 periods. Unlike previous studies on Malaysia, the current study focuses on the residential sector, a sector that is important for the contemplation of energy policy. The Phillips-Perron (P-P) unit root test is employed to infer the stationary of each variable while the bound test is executed to determine the existence of co-integration relationship among the variables, modeled in an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework. The CUSUM and CUSUM of squares tests are applied to ensure the stability of the model. The results suggest the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship and bidirectional Granger causality between EC and the macroeconomic variables. The empirical findings will help policy makers of Malaysia in developing new monitoring standards of energy consumption. As it is the major contributing factor in economic growth and CO2 emission, there is a need for more proper planning in Malaysia to attain future targets in order to cut emissions.

Keywords: co-integration, elasticity, granger causality, Malaysia, residential electricity consumption

Procedia PDF Downloads 188
7631 Foreign Exchange Volatilities and Stock Prices: Evidence from London Stock Exchange

Authors: Mahdi Karazmodeh, Pooyan Jafari


One of the most interesting topics in finance is the relation between stock prices and exchange rates. During the past decades different stock markets in different countries have been the subject of study for researches. The volatilities of exchange rates and its effect on stock prices during the past 10 years have continued to be an attractive research topic. The subject of this study is one of the most important indices, FTSE 100. 20 firms with the highest market capitalization in 5 different industries are chosen. Firms are included in oil and gas, mining, pharmaceuticals, banking and food related industries. 5 different criteria have been introduced to evaluate the relationship between stock markets and exchange rates. Return of market portfolio, returns on broad index of Sterling are also introduced. The results state that not all firms are sensitive to changes in exchange rates. Furthermore, a Granger Causality test has been run to observe the route of changes between stock prices and foreign exchange rates. The results are consistent, to some level, with the previous studies. However, since the number of firms is not large, it is suggested that a larger number of firms being used to achieve the best results. However results showed that not all firms are affected by foreign exchange rates changes. After testing Granger Causality, this study found out that in some industries (oil and gas, pharmaceuticals), changes in foreign exchange rate will not cause any changes in stock prices (or vice versa), however, in banking sector the situation was different. This industry showed more reaction to these changes. The results are similar to the ones with Richards and Noel, where a variety of firms in different industries were evaluated.

Keywords: stock prices, foreign exchange rate, exchange rate exposure, Granger Causality

Procedia PDF Downloads 358
7630 Economic Growth Relations to Domestic and International Air Passenger Transport in Brazil

Authors: Manoela Cabo da Silva, Elton Fernandes, Ricardo Pacheco, Heloisa Pires


This study examined cointegration and causal relationships between economic growth and regular domestic and international passenger air transport in Brazil. Total passengers embarked and disembarked were used as a proxy for air transport activity and gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy for economic development. The test spanned the period from 2000 to 2015 for domestic passenger traffic and from 1995 to 2015 for international traffic. The results confirm the hypothesis that there is cointegration between passenger traffic series and economic development, showing a bi-directional Granger causal relationship between domestic traffic and economic development and unidirectional influence by economic growth on international passenger air transport demand. Variance decomposition of the series showed that domestic air transport was far more important than international transport to promoting economic development in Brazil.

Keywords: air passenger transport, cointegration, economic growth, GDP, Granger causality

Procedia PDF Downloads 116
7629 Automating Test Activities: Test Cases Creation, Test Execution, and Test Reporting with Multiple Test Automation Tools

Authors: Loke Mun Sei


Software testing has become a mandatory process in assuring the software product quality. Hence, test management is needed in order to manage the test activities conducted in the software test life cycle. This paper discusses on the challenges faced in the software test life cycle, and how the test processes and test activities, mainly on test cases creation, test execution, and test reporting is being managed and automated using several test automation tools, i.e. Jira, Robot Framework, and Jenkins.

Keywords: test automation tools, test case, test execution, test reporting

Procedia PDF Downloads 439
7628 An Empirical Study on Growth, Trade, Foreign Direct Investment and Environment in India

Authors: Shilpi Tripathi


India has adopted the policy of economic reforms (Globalization, Liberalization, and Privatization) in 1991 which has reduced the trade barriers and investment restrictions and further increased the economy’s international trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. The paper empirically studies the relationship between India’s international trades, GDP, FDI and environment during 1978-2012. The first part of the paper focuses on the background and trends of FDI, GDP, trade, and environment (CO2). The second part focuses on the literature regarding the relationship among all the variables. The last part of paper, we examine the results of empirical analysis like co integration and Granger causality between foreign trade, FDI inflows, GDP and CO2 since 1978. The findings of the paper revealed that there is only one uni- directional causality exists between GDP and trade. The direction of causality reveals that international trade is one of the major contributors to the economic growth (GDP). While, there is no causality found between GDP and FDI, FDI, and CO2 and International trade and CO2. The paper concludes with the policy recommendations that will ensure environmental friendly trade, investment and growth in India for future.

Keywords: international trade, foreign direct investment, GDP, CO2, co-integration, granger causality test

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7627 The Potential of Renewable Energy in Tunisia and Its Impact on Economic Growth

Authors: Assaad Ghazouani


Tunisia is ranked among the countries with low energy diversification, but this configuration makes the country too dependent on fossil fuel exporting countries and therefore extremely sensitive to any oil crises, many measures to diversify electricity production must be taken in making use of other forms of renewable and nuclear energy. One of the solutions required to escape this dependence is the liberalization of the electricity industry which can lead to an improvement of supply, energy diversification, and reducing some of the negative effects of the trade balance. This paper examines the issue of renewable electricity and economic growth in Tunisia consumption. The main objective is to study and analyze the causal link between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in Tunisia over the period 1980-2010. To examine the relationship in the short and in the long terms, we used a multidimensional approach to cointegration based on recent advances in time series econometrics (test Zivot - Andrews, Test of Cointegration Johannsen, Granger causality test, error correction model (ECM)).

Keywords: renewable electricity, economic growth, VECM, cointegration, Tunisia

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7626 Hands on Tools to Improve Knowlege, Confidence and Skill of Clinical Disaster Providers

Authors: Lancer Scott


Purpose: High quality clinical disaster medicine requires providers working collaboratively to care for multiple patients in chaotic environments; however, many providers lack adequate training. To address this deficit, we created a competency-based, 5-hour Emergency Preparedness Training (EPT) curriculum using didactics, small-group discussion, and kinetic learning. The goal was to evaluate the effect of a short course on improving provider knowledge, confidence and skills in disaster scenarios. Methods: Diverse groups of medical university students, health care professionals, and community members were enrolled between 2011 and 2014. The course consisted of didactic lectures, small group exercises, and two live, multi-patient mass casualty incident (MCI) scenarios. The outcome measures were based on core competencies and performance objectives developed by a curriculum task force and assessed via trained facilitator observation, pre- and post-testing, and a course evaluation. Results: 708 participants completed were trained between November 2011 and August 2014, including 49.9% physicians, 31.9% medical students, 7.2% nurses, and 11% various other healthcare professions. 100% of participants completed the pre-test and 71.9% completed the post-test, with average correct answers increasing from 39% to 60%. Following didactics, trainees met 73% and 96% of performance objectives for the two small group exercises and 68.5% and 61.1% of performance objectives for the two MCI scenarios. Average trainee self-assessment of both overall knowledge and skill with clinical disasters improved from 33/100 to 74/100 (overall knowledge) and 33/100 to 77/100 (overall skill). The course assessment was completed by 34.3% participants, of whom 91.5% highly recommended the course. Conclusion: A relatively short, intensive EPT course can improve the ability of a diverse group of disaster care providers to respond effectively to mass casualty scenarios.

Keywords: clinical disaster medicine, training, hospital preparedness, surge capacity, education, curriculum, research, performance, training, student, physicians, nurses, health care providers, health care

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7625 The Internationalization of Capital Market Influencing Debt Sustainability's Impact on the Growth of the Nigerian Economy

Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara, Eugine Iheanacho


The paper set out to assess the sustainability of debt in the Nigerian economy. Precisely, it sought to determine the level of debt sustainability and its impact on the growth of the economy; whether internationalization of capital market has positively influenced debt sustainability’s impact on economic growth; and to ascertain the direction of causality between external debt sustainability and the growth of GDP. In the light of these objectives, ratio analysis was employed for the determination of debt sustainability. Our findings revealed that the periods 1986 – 1994 and 1999 – 2004 were periods of severe unsustainable borrowing. The unit root test showed that the variables of the growth model were integrated of order one, I(1) and the cointegration test provided evidence for long run stability. Considering the dawn of internationalization of capital market, the researcher employed the structural break approach using Chow Breakpoint test on the vector error correction model (VECM). The result of VECM showed that debt sustainability, measured by debt to GDP ratio exerts negative and significant impact on the growth of the economy while debt burden measured by debt-export ratio and debt service export ratio are negative though insignificant on the growth of GDP. The Cho test result indicated that internationalization of capital market has no significant effect on the debt overhang impact on the growth of the Economy. The granger causality test indicates a feedback effect from economic growth to debt sustainability growth indicators. On the bases of these findings, the researchers made some necessary recommendations which if followed religiously will go a long way to ameliorating debt burdens and engendering economic growth.

Keywords: debt sustainability, internalization, capital market, cointegration, chow test

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