Search results for: external

Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

Abstract:

Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Mohamed M. Diab, Koura G. Mohamed, A. Balbaa, Radwan Sh. Ahamed

Abstract:

Background: Chronic mechanical low back pain (CMLBP) is the most common complaint of the working-age population. Mechanical low back pain is often a chronic, dull, aching pain of varying intensity that affects the lower spine. In the current proposal the hip rotation-CMLBP relationship is based on that limited hip motion will be compensated by motion in the lumbopelvic region and this increase force translates to the lumbar spine. The purpose of this study was to investigate if there a relationship between chronic mechanical low back pain (CMLBP) and hip medial and lateral rotation (peak torque and Range of motion (ROM) in patients with CMLBP. Methods: Sixty patients with CMLBP diagnosed by an orthopedist participated in the current study after signing a consent form. Their mean of age was (23.76±2.39) years, mean of weight (71.8±12.7) (Kg), mean of height (169.65±7.49) (Cm) and mean of BMI (25.5±3.86) (Kg/m2). Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) was used to assess pain. Fluid Filled Inclinometer was used to measure Hip rotation ROM (medial and lateral). Isokinetic Dynamometer was used to measure peak torque of hip rotators muscles (medial and lateral), concentric peak torque with tow Isokinetic speeds (60ᵒ/sec and 180ᵒ/sec) was selected to measure peak torque. Results: The results of this study demonstrated that there is poor relationship between pain and hip external rotation ROM, also there is poor relation between pain and hip internal rotation ROM. There is poor relation between pain and hip internal rotators peak torque and hip external rotators peak torque in both speeds. Conclusion: Depending on the current study it is not recommended to give an importance to hip rotation in treating Chronic Mechanical Low Back Pain.

Keywords: hip rotation ROM, hip rotators strength, low back pain, chronic mechanical

Procedia PDF Downloads 312

Authors: Muhammad Ejaz1

Abstract:

Rework has been defined as: "The unnecessary effort of re-doing a process or activity that was incorrectly implemented the first time." A great threat to the construction industry is rework. By and large due attention has not been given to avoid the causes of reworks, resulting time and cost over runs, in civil engineering projects. Besides these direct consequences, there might also be indirect consequences, such as stress, de-motivation or loss of future clients. When delivered products do not meet the requirements or expectations, work often has to be redone. Rework occurs in various phases of the construction process or in various divisions of a company. Rework can occur on the construction site or in a management department due to for example bad materials management. Rework can also have internal or external origins. Changes in clients’ expectations are an example of an external factor that might lead to rework. Rework can cause many costs to be higher than calculated at the start of the project. Rework events can have many different origins and for this research they have been categorized into four categories; changes, errors, omissions, and damages. The research showed that the major source of reworks were non professional attitude from technical hands and ignorance of total quality management principals by stakeholders. It also revealed that sources of reworks have not major differences among project categories. The causes were further analyzed by interviewing employees. Based on existing literature an extensive list of rework causes was made and during the interviews the interviewees were asked to confirm or deny statements regarding rework causes. The causes that were most frequently confirmed can be grouped into the understanding categories. 56% (max) of the causes are change-related, 30% (max) is error-related and 18% (max) falls into another category. Therefore, by recognizing above mentioned factors, reworks can be reduced to a great extent.

Keywords: total quality management, construction industry, cost overruns, rework, material management, client’s expectations

Procedia PDF Downloads 293

Authors: Deyu Zhou, Xiao Xue, Lizhen Cui

Abstract:

With the increasing collaboration among various services and the growing complexity of user demands, there are more and more factors affecting the stable development of the cloud manufacturing service economic system (CMSE). This poses new challenges to the evolution analysis of the CMSE. Many researchers have modeled and analyzed the evolution process of CMSE from the perspectives of individual learning and internal factors influencing the system, but without considering other important characteristics of the system's individuals (such as heterogeneity, bounded rationality, etc.) and the impact of external environmental factors. Therefore, this paper proposes an integrated artificial social model for the cloud manufacturing service economic system, which considers both the characteristics of the system's individuals and the internal and external influencing factors of the system. The model consists of three parts: the Agent model, environment model, and rules model (Agent-Environment-Rules, AER): (1) the Agent model considers important features of the individuals, such as heterogeneity and bounded rationality, based on the adaptive behavior mechanisms of perception, action, and decision-making; (2) the environment model describes the activity space of the individuals (real or virtual environment); (3) the rules model, as the driving force of system evolution, describes the mechanism of the entire system's operation and evolution. Finally, this paper verifies the effectiveness of the AER model through computational and experimental results.

Keywords: cloud manufacturing service economic system (CMSE), AER model, artificial social modeling, integrated framework, computing experiment, agent-based modeling, social networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: Qingyu Zhang, Helin Ma, Lili Weng, Mei Cao

Abstract:

Green supply chain management has been an important organizational strategy to reduce environmental risks and improve financial performance. Firms have to adopt green supply chain practices to meet the official regulations and reduce peer pressure in China. This paper exhibits an empirical study of the drivers of green supply chain management practices and the environmental and economic performance of green supply chain management implementation in Chinese firms. While China is the fastest-growing emerging economy, it has paid a high ecological price. It is reported that China hosts 7 of the world’s 10 most polluted cities. The continued environmental deterioration and the resultant heightened regulatory control and public scrutiny have posed new operating challenges to firms conducting business in China. These challenges make the country an ideal setting to conduct the present study. A research questionnaire was developed to gather data in China. The questionnaire targeted managers and employees in Chinese companies. The data were collected in the last quarter of 2015, involving industries such as electronic & communicational equipment, textile & clothing, pharmaceutical & healthcare, and so on. This study confirms and validates that (1) both internal and external drivers play a significant role in the implementation of green supply chain management practices; (2) green purchase and investment recovery have a significant impact on firms’ environmental and economic performance; (3) with the improvement of the firms’ environmental performance, their economic performance will improve.

Keywords: economic performance, environmental performance, external driver, green supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 381

Authors: Claire Norman-Maillet

Abstract:

Insider fraud, otherwise known as occupational, employee, or internal fraud, is a financial crime threat. Perpetrated by defrauding (or attempting to defraud) one’s current, prospective, or past employer, an ‘employee’ covers anyone employed by the company, including board members and contractors. The Coronavirus pandemic has forced insider fraud into the spotlight, and it isn’t dimming. As the focus of most academics and practitioners has historically been on that of ‘external fraud’, insider fraud is often overlooked or not considered to be a real threat. However, since COVID-19 changed the working world, pushing most of us into remote or hybrid working, employers cannot easily keep an eye on what their staff are doing, which has led to reliance on trust and transparency. This, therefore, brings about an increased risk of insider fraud perpetration. The objective of this paper is to explore why insider fraud is, therefore, now the biggest threat to a business. To achieve the research objective, participating individuals within the financial crime sector (either as a practitioner or consultants) attended semi-structured interviews with the researcher. The principal recruitment strategy for these individuals was via the researcher’s LinkedIn network. The main findings in the research suggest that insider fraud has been ignored and rejected as a threat to a business, owing to a reluctance to admit that a colleague may perpetrate. A positive of the Coronavirus pandemic is that it has forced insider fraud into a more prominent position and giving it more importance on a business’ agenda and risk register. Despite insider fraud always having been a possibility (and therefore a risk) within any business, it is very rare that a business has given it the attention it requires until now, if at all. The research concludes that insider fraud needs to prioritised by all businesses, and even ahead of external fraud. The research also provides advice on how a business can add new or enhance existing controls to mitigate the risk.

Keywords: insider fraud, occupational fraud, COVID-19, COVID, coronavirus, pandemic, internal fraud, financial crime, economic crime

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Aurela Jahja, Katarzyna Wątor, Arjan Beqiraj, Piotr Rusiniak, Nevton Kodhelaj

Abstract:

Albanian geological terrains represent an important node of the Alpine – Mediterranean mountain belt and are divided into several predominantly NNW - SSE striking geotectonic units, which, based on the presence or lack of Cretaceous transgression and magmatic rocks, belong to Internal or External Albanides. The internal (Korabi, Mirdita and Gashi) units are characterized by the Lower Cretaceous discordance and the presence of abundant magmatic rocks whereas in the external (Alps, Krasta-Cukali, Kruja, Ionian, Sazani and Peri Adriatic Depression) units an almost continuous sedimentation from Triassic to Paleogene is evidenced. The internal and external units show relevant differences in both geothermal and heat flow density values. The gradient values vary from 15-21.3 to 36 mK/m, while the heat flow density ranges from 42 to 60 mW/m2, in the external (Preadriatic Depression) and internal (ophiolitic belt) units, respectively. The geothermal fluids, which are found in natural springs and deep oil wells of Albania, are located in four thermo-mineral provinces: a) Peshkopi (Korabi) province; b) Kruja province; c) Preadriatic basin province, and d) South Ionian province. Thirteen geothermal waters were sampled from 11 natural springs and 2 deep wells, of which 6 springs and 2 wells from Kruja, 1 spring from Peshkopia, 2 springs from Preadriatic basin and 2 springs South Ionian province. Temperature, pH and Electrical Conductivity were measured in situ, while in laboratory were analyzed by ICP method major anions and cations and several trace elements (B, Li, Sr, Rb, I, Br, etc.). The measured values of temperature, pH and electrical conductivity range within 17-63°C, 6.26-7.92 and 724- 26856µS/cm intervals, respectively. The chemical type of the Albania thermal waters is variable. In the Kruja province prevail the Cl-SO4-NaCa and Cl-Na-Ca water types; while SO4-Ca, HCO3-Ca and Cl-HCO3-Na-Ca, and Cl-Na are found in the provinces of Peshkopi, Ionian and Preadriatic basin, respectively. In the Cl-SO4-HCO3 triangular diagram most of the geothermal waters are close to the chloride corner that belong to “mature waters”, typical of geothermal deep and hot fluids. Only samples from the Ionian province are located within the region of high bicarbonate concentration and they can be classified as peripheral waters that may have mixed with cold groundwater. In the Na-Ca-Mg and Na-K-Mg triangular diagram the majority of waters fall in the corner of sodium, suggesting that their cation ratios are controlled by mineral-solution equilibrium. There is a linear relationship between Cl and B which indicates the mixing of geothermal water with cold water, where the low-chlorine thermal waters from Ionian basin and Preadriatic depression provinces are distinguished by high-chlorine thermal waters from Kruja province. The Cl/Br molar ration of the thermal waters from Kruja province ranges from 1000 to 2660 and separates them from the thermal waters of Ionian basin and Preadriatic depression provinces having Cl/Br molar ratio lower than 650. The apparent increase of Cl/Br molar ratio that correlates with the increasing of the chloride, is probably related with dissolution of the Halite.

Keywords: geothermal fluids, geotectonic units, natural springs, deep wells, mature waters, peripheral waters

Procedia PDF Downloads 219

Authors: Sudhir Kumar Singh, Debashish Chakravarty

Abstract:

Slope stability analysis is an important aspect in the field of geotechnical engineering. It is also important from safety, and economic point of view as any slope failure leads to loss of valuable lives and damage to property worth millions. This paper aims at mitigating the risk of slope failure by studying the effect of different joint sets on the stability of mine pit slopes under the influence of various external factors, namely degree of saturation, rainfall intensity, and seismic coefficients. Supervised machine learning approach has been utilized for making accurate and reliable predictions regarding the stability of slopes based on the value of Factor of Safety. Numerous cases have been studied for analyzing the stability of slopes using the popular Finite Element Method, and the data thus obtained has been used as training data for the supervised machine learning models. The input data has been trained on different supervised machine learning models, namely Random Forest, Decision Tree, Support vector Machine, and XGBoost. Distinct test data that is not present in training data has been used for measuring the performance and accuracy of different models. Although all models have performed well on the test dataset but Random Forest stands out from others due to its high accuracy of greater than 95%, thus helping us by providing a valuable tool at our disposition which is neither computationally expensive nor time consuming and in good accordance with the numerical analysis result.

Keywords: finite element method, geotechnical engineering, machine learning, slope stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Jia Li, Huacong Li, Xiaobao Han

Abstract:

Due to the more variable geometry parameters of VCE (variable cycle aircraft engine), presents an adaptive controller method based on the full-state linear model of VCE and has simulated to solve the multivariate controller design problem of the whole flight envelops. First, analyzes the static and dynamic performances of bypass ratio and other state parameters caused by variable geometric components, and develops nonlinear component model of VCE. Then based on the component model, through small deviation linearization of main fuel (Wf), the area of tail nozzle throat (A8) and the angle of rear bypass ejector (A163), setting up multiple linear model which variable geometric parameters can be inputs. Second, designs the adaptive controllers for VCE linear models of different nominal points. Among them, considering of modeling uncertainties and external disturbances, derives the adaptive law by lyapunov function. The simulation results showed that, the adaptive controller method based on full-state linear model used the angle of rear bypass ejector as input and effectively solved the multivariate control problems of VCE. The performance of all nominal points could track the desired closed-loop reference instructions. The adjust time was less than 1.2s, and the system overshoot was less than 1%, at the same time, the errors of steady states were less than 0.5% and the dynamic tracking errors were less than 1%. In addition, the designed controller could effectively suppress interference and reached the desired commands with different external random noise signals.

Keywords: variable cycle engine (VCE), full-state linear model, adaptive control, by-pass ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Minal Jain, Vinayak Malhotra

Abstract:

Solid Propellant ignition consists of rapid and complex events comprising of heat generation and transfer of heat with spreading of flames over the entire burning surface area. Proper combustion and thus propulsion depends heavily on the modes of heat transfer characteristics and cavity volume. Fire safety is an integral component of a successful rocket flight failing to which may lead to overall failure of the rocket. This leads to enormous forfeiture in resources viz., money, time, and labor involved. When the propellant is ignited, thrust is generated and the casing gets heated up. This heat adds on to the propellant heat and the casing, if not at proper orientation starts burning as well, leading to the whole rocket being completely destroyed. This has necessitated active research efforts emphasizing a comprehensive study on the inter-energy relations involved for effective utilization of the solid rocket motors for better space missions. Present work is focused on one of the major influential aspects of this detrimental burning which is the presence of an external heat source, in addition to a potential heat source which is already ignited. The study is motivated by the need to ensure better combustion and fire safety presented experimentally as a simplified small-scale mode of a rocket carrying a solid propellant inside a cavity. The experimental setup comprises of a paraffin wax candle as the pilot fuel and incense stick as the external heat source. The candle is fixed and the incense stick position and location is varied to investigate the find the influence of the pilot heat source. Different configurations of the external heat source presence with separation distance are tested upon. Regression rates of the pilot thin solid fuel are noted to fundamentally understand the non-linear heat and mass transfer which is the governing phenomenon. An attempt is made to understand the phenomenon fundamentally and the mechanism governing it. Results till now indicate non-linear heat transfer assisted with the occurrence of flaming transition at selected critical distances. With an increase in separation distance, the effect is noted to drop in a non-monotonic trend. The parametric study results are likely to provide useful physical insight about the governing physics and utilization in proper testing, validation, material selection, and designing of solid rocket motors with enhanced safety.

Keywords: combustion, propellant, regression, safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Muhammad Tahir Riaz, Khalid Mehmood, Ahmad Waseem Akhtar, Tariq Abbas, Sadaqat Ali, Muhammad Altaf

Abstract:

Livestock sector contributes around 55.9 and 11.8% to agriculture and GDP respectively, according to economic survey of Pakistan 2013-2014. The goats population has been estimated about 66.6 million (M). Parasitic infestation is a major health problem in goats causing loss in body weight, poor body condition, low birth weights, and difficulty in kidding. Keeping in view the utilization of these animals in the country, a pilot epidemiological survey was conducted to find out the major parasitic problems of goats in and around Derawar fort area, Cholistan. Data regarding 662 fecal samples of goats was collected from 25 tobas of Cholistan during June 2012 to June 2013. All the fecal samples were examined through Direct Smear Method and Salt Flotation Technique for the presence of helminth eggs. External parasites were taken from the various components of the carcass of goat and were conserved in 70% alcohol in hygienic, properly enclosed glass jars that were tagged thoroughly. The collected date was analyzed statistically by Chi-square test to find out the prevalence in goats. Out of 662 goats, 261 (39.42%) were found positive for parasites. 233 (35.20%) goats were found positive for gastrointestinal parasites while 28 (4.23%) were positive for external parasites including ticks 20 (3.02%) and mange 8 (1.21%). The higher prevalence of parasites in the study area may be due to pasture grazing, poor management and lack of extension work. In this regards proper management and control measures should be adopted to minimize the Parasitic Problems.

Keywords: Cholistan, goats, parasite, surveillance

Procedia PDF Downloads 569

Authors: M. Seguini, D. Nedjar

Abstract:

An accuracy nonlinear analysis of a deep beam resting on elastic perfectly plastic soil is carried out in this study. In fact, a nonlinear finite element modeling for large deflection and moderate rotation of Euler-Bernoulli beam resting on linear and nonlinear random soil is investigated. The geometric nonlinear analysis of the beam is based on the theory of von Kàrmàn, where the Newton-Raphson incremental iteration method is implemented in a Matlab code to solve the nonlinear equation of the soil-beam interaction system. However, two analyses (deterministic and probabilistic) are proposed to verify the accuracy and the efficiency of the proposed model where the theory of the local average based on the Monte Carlo approach is used to analyze the effect of the spatial variability of the soil properties on the nonlinear beam response. The effect of six main parameters are investigated: the external load, the length of a beam, the coefficient of subgrade reaction of the soil, the Young’s modulus of the beam, the coefficient of variation and the correlation length of the soil’s coefficient of subgrade reaction. A comparison between the beam resting on linear and nonlinear soil models is presented for different beam’s length and external load. Numerical results have been obtained for the combination of the geometric nonlinearity of beam and material nonlinearity of random soil. This comparison highlighted the need of including the material nonlinearity and spatial variability of the soil in the geometric nonlinear analysis, when the beam undergoes large deflections.

Keywords: finite element method, geometric nonlinearity, material nonlinearity, soil-structure interaction, spatial variability

Procedia PDF Downloads 414

Authors: Leonardo C. Pacheco-Londoño, Nataly J Galan-Freyle, Lisandro Pacheco-Lugo, Antonio Acosta-Hoyos, Elkin Navarro, Gustavo Aroca-Martinez, Karin Rondón-Payares, Alberto C. Espinosa-Garavito, Samuel P. Hernández-Rivera

Abstract:

At the Life Science Research Center at Simon Bolivar University, a primary focus is the diagnosis of various diseases, and the use of gold nanoparticles (Au-NPs) in diverse biomedical applications is continually expanding. In the present study, Au-NPs were employed as substrates for Surface-Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy (SERS) aimed at diagnosing kidney diseases arising from Lupus Nephritis (LN), preeclampsia (PC), and Hypertension (H). Discrimination models were developed for distinguishing patients with and without kidney diseases based on the SERS signals from urine samples by partial least squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA). A comparative study of the Raman signals across the three conditions was conducted, leading to the identification of potential metabolite signals. Model performance was assessed through cross-validation and external validation, determining parameters like sensitivity and specificity. Additionally, a secondary analysis was performed using machine learning (ML) models, wherein different ML algorithms were evaluated for their efficiency. Models’ validation was carried out using cross-validation and external validation, and other parameters were determined, such as sensitivity and specificity; the models showed average values of 0.9 for both parameters. Additionally, it is not possible to highlight this collaborative effort involved two university research centers and two healthcare institutions, ensuring ethical treatment and informed consent of patient samples.

Keywords: SERS, Raman, PLS-DA, kidney diseases

Procedia PDF Downloads 45

Authors: Clara Shenderey, Helena Vitoshkin, Mordechai Barak, Avraham Arbel

Abstract:

Greenhouse cultivation is an energy-intensive process due to the high demands on cooling or heating according to external climatic conditions, which could be extreme in the summer or winter seasons. The thermal radiation rate inside a greenhouse depends mainly on the type of covering material and greenhouse construction. Using additional thermal screens under a greenhouse covering combined with a dehumidification system improves the insulation and could be cost-effective. Greenhouse covering material usually contains protective ultraviolet (UV) radiation additives to prevent the film wear, insect harm, and crop diseases. This paper investigates the overall heat transfer coefficient, or U-value, for greenhouse polyethylene covering contains UV-additives and glass covering with or without a thermal screen supplement. The hot-box method was employed to evaluate overall heat transfer coefficients experimentally as a function of the type and number of the thermal screens. The results show that the overall heat transfer coefficient decreases with increasing the number of thermal screens as a hyperbolic function. The overall heat transfer coefficient highly depends on the ability of the material to reflect thermal radiation. Using a greenhouse covering, i.e., polyethylene films or glass, in combination with high reflective thermal screens, i.e., containing about 98% of aluminum stripes or aluminum foil, the U-value reduces by 61%-89% in the first case, whereas by 70%-92% in the second case, depending on the number of the thermal screen. Using thermal screens made from low reflective materials may reduce the U-value by 30%-57%. The heat transfer coefficient is an indicator of the thermal insulation properties of the materials, which allows farmers to make decisions on the use of appropriate thermal screens depending on the external and internal climate conditions in a greenhouse.

Keywords: energy-saving thermal screen, greenhouse cover material, heat transfer coefficient, hot box

Procedia PDF Downloads 146

Authors: Naghmeh M. Bandari, Javad Dargahi, Muthukumaran Packirisamy

Abstract:

Robot-assisted minimally invasive surgery (RMIS) has been widely performed around the world during the last two decades. RMIS demonstrates significant advantages over conventional surgery, e.g., improving the accuracy and dexterity of a surgeon, providing 3D vision, motion scaling, hand-eye coordination, decreasing tremor, and reducing x-ray exposure for surgeons. Despite benefits, surgeons cannot touch the surgical site and perceive tactile information. This happens due to the remote control of robots. The literature survey identified the lack of force feedback as the riskiest limitation in the existing technology. Without the perception of tool-tissue contact force, the surgeon might apply an excessive force causing tissue laceration or insufficient force causing tissue slippage. The primary use of force sensors has been to measure the tool-tissue interaction force in real-time in-situ. Design of a tactile sensor is subjected to a set of design requirements, e.g., biocompatibility, electrical-passivity, MRI-compatibility, miniaturization, ability to measure static and dynamic force. In this study, a planar optical fiber-based sensor was proposed to mount at the surgical grasper. It was developed based on the light intensity modulation principle. The deflectable part of the sensor was a beam modeled as a cantilever Euler-Bernoulli beam on rigid substrates. A semi-cylindrical indenter was attached to the bottom surface the beam at the mid-span. An optical fiber was secured at both ends on the same rigid substrates. The indenter was in contact with the fiber. External force on the sensor caused deflection in the beam and optical fiber simultaneously. The micro-bending of the optical fiber would consequently result in light power loss. The sensor was simulated and studied using finite element methods. A laser light beam with 800nm wavelength and 5mW power was used as the input to the optical fiber. The output power was measured using a photodetector. The voltage from photodetector was calibrated to the external force for a chirp input (0.1-5Hz). The range, resolution, and hysteresis of the sensor were studied under monotonic and harmonic external forces of 0-2.0N with 0 and 5Hz, respectively. The results confirmed the validity of proposed sensing principle. Also, the sensor demonstrated an acceptable linearity (R2 > 0.9). A minimum external force was observed below which no power loss was detectable. It is postulated that this phenomenon is attributed to the critical angle of the optical fiber to observe total internal reflection. The experimental results were of negligible hysteresis (R2 > 0.9) and in fair agreement with the simulations. In conclusion, the suggested planar sensor is assessed to be a cost-effective solution, feasible, and easy to use the sensor for being miniaturized and integrated at the tip of robotic graspers. Geometrical and optical factors affecting the minimum sensible force and the working range of the sensor should be studied and optimized. This design is intrinsically scalable and meets all the design requirements. Therefore, it has a significant potential of industrialization and mass production.

Keywords: force sensor, minimally invasive surgery, optical sensor, robotic surgery, tactile sensor

Procedia PDF Downloads 231

Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

Abstract:

Accurate forecasting of project performance metrics is crucial for successfully managing and delivering urban road reconstruction projects. Traditional methods often rely on static baseline plans and fail to consider the dynamic nature of project progress and external factors. This research proposes a machine learning-based approach to forecast project performance metrics, such as cost variance and earned value, for each Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) category in an urban road reconstruction project. The proposed model utilizes time series forecasting techniques, including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, to predict future performance based on historical data and project progress. The model also incorporates external factors, such as weather patterns and resource availability, as features to enhance the accuracy of forecasts. By applying the predictive power of machine learning, the performance forecasting model enables proactive identification of potential deviations from the baseline plan, which allows project managers to take timely corrective actions. The research aims to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach using a case study of an urban road reconstruction project, comparing the model's forecasts with actual project performance data. The findings of this research contribute to the advancement of project management practices in the construction industry, offering a data-driven solution for improving project performance monitoring and control.

Keywords: project performance forecasting, machine learning, time series forecasting, cost variance, earned value management

Procedia PDF Downloads 50

Authors: Aleksandr I. Korobov, Natalia V. Shirgina, Aleksey I. Kokshaiskiy

Abstract:

The transformation of two types of acoustic waves can occur on a flat interface between two solids at oblique incidence of longitudinal and shear bulk acoustic waves (BAW). This paper presents the results of experimental studies of the properties of reflection and propagation of longitudinal wave and generation of second and third longitudinal and shear harmonics of BAW at oblique incidence of longitudinal BAW on a flat rough boundary between two solids. The experimental sample was a rectangular isosceles pyramid made of D16 aluminum alloy with the plane parallel bases cylinder made of D16 aluminum alloy pressed to the base. The piezoelectric lithium niobate transducer with a resonance frequency of 5 MHz was secured to one face of the pyramid to generate a longitudinal wave. Longitudinal waves emitted by this transducer felt at an angle of 45° to the interface between two solids and reflected at the same angle. On the opposite face of the pyramid, and on the flat side of the cylinder was attached longitudinal transducer with resonance frequency of 10 MHz or the shear transducer with resonance frequency of 15 MHz. These transducers also effectively received signal at a frequency of 5 MHz. In the spectrum of the transmitted and reflected BAW was observed shear and longitudinal waves at a frequency of 5 MHz, as well as longitudinal harmonic at a frequency harmonic of 10 MHz and a shear harmonic at frequency of 15 MHz. The effect of reversing changing of external pressure applied to the rough interface between two solids on the value of the first and higher harmonics of the BAW at oblique incidence on the interface of the longitudinal BAW was experimentally investigated. In the spectrum of the reflected signal from the interface, there was a decrease of amplitudes of the first harmonics of the signal, and non-monotonic dependence of the second and third harmonics of shear wave with an increase of the static pressure applied to the interface. In the spectrum of the transmitted signal growth of the first longitudinal and shear harmonic amplitude and non-monotonic dependence - first increase and then decrease in the amplitude of the second and third longitudinal shear harmonic with increasing external static pressure was observed. These dependencies were hysteresis at reversing changing of external pressure. When pressure applied to the border increased, acoustic contact between the surfaces improves. This increases the energy of the transmitted elastic wave and decreases the energy of the reflected wave. The second longitudinal acoustic harmonics generation was associated with the Hertz nonlinearity on the interface of two pressed rough surfaces, the generation of the third harmonic was caused by shear hysteresis nonlinearity due to dry friction on a rough interface. This study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (project №14-22-00042).

Keywords: generation of acoustic harmonics, hysteresis nonlinearity, Hertz nonlinearity, transformation of acoustic waves

Procedia PDF Downloads 378

Authors: Emmanuel Mkambankhani, Tiwonge Manda

Abstract:

Software platform architecture includes system components, their relationships, and design, as well as evolution principles. Software architecture and documentation affect a platform's customizability and openness to external innovators, thus affecting developer productivity. Malawi Point of Care (POC) Electronic Medical Records System (EMRS) follows some architectural design standards, but it lacks third-party innovators and is difficult to customize as compared to CommCare and District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2). Improving software architecture and documentation for the Malawi POC will increase productivity and third-party contributions. A conceptual framework based on Generativity and Boundary Resource Model (BRM) was used to compare the three platforms. Interviews, observations, and document analysis were used to collect primary and secondary data. Themes were found by analyzing qualitative and quantitative data, which led to the following results. Configurable, flexible, and cross-platform software platforms and the availability of interfaces (Boundary Resources) that let internal and external developers interact with the platform's core functionality, hence boosting developer productivity. Furthermore, documentation increases developer productivity, while its absence inhibits the use of resources. The study suggests that the architecture and openness of the Malawi POC EMR software platform will be improved by standardizing web application program interfaces (APIs) and making interfaces that can be changed by the user. In addition, increasing the availability of documentation and training will improve the use of boundary resources, thus improving internal and third-party development productivity.

Keywords: health systems, configurable platforms, software architecture, software documentation, software development productivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Meza-Quintero Myriam, Lobo Torrado Katty Andrea, Sanchez Picon Yesenia, Hurtado-Lugo Naudin

Abstract:

The objective of the study was to evaluate the internal and external quality of the egg in the three production housing systems: floor, cage, and grazing of laying birds of the Isa Brown line, in the laying period between weeks 35 to 41; 135 hens distributed in 3 treatments of 45 birds per repetition were used (the replicas were the seven weeks of the trial). The feeding treatment supplied in the floor and cage systems contained 114 g/bird/day; for the grazing system, 14 grams less concentrate was provided. Nine eggs were collected to be studied and analyzed in the animal nutrition laboratory (3 eggs per housing system). The random statistical model was implemented: for the statistical analysis of the data, the statistical software of IBM® Statistical Products and Services Solution (SPSS) version 2.3 was used. The evaluation and follow-up instruments were the vernier caliper for the measurement in millimeters, a YolkFan™16 from Roche DSM for the evaluation of the egg yolk pigmentation, a digital scale for the measurement in grams, a micrometer for the measurement in millimeters and evaluation in the laboratory using dry matter, ashes, and ethereal extract. The results suggested that equivalent to the size of the egg (0.04 ± 3.55) and the thickness of the shell (0.46 ± 3.55), where P-Value> 0.05 was obtained, weight albumen (0.18 ± 3.55), albumen height (0.38 ± 3.55), yolk weight (0.64 ± 3.55), yolk height (0.54 ± 3.55) and for yolk pigmentation (1.23 ± 3.55). It was concluded that the hens in the three production systems, floor, cage, and grazing, did not show significant statistical differences in the internal and external quality of the chicken in the parameters studied egg for the production system.

Keywords: biological, territories, genetic resource, egg

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: Edoghogho Ogbeifun, Charles Mbohwa, J. H. C. Pretorius

Abstract:

Several research report on the factors responsible for the delays in the completion of construction projects has identified the issue of funding as a critical factor; insufficient funding, low cash-flow or lack of funds. Indeed, adequate funding plays pivotal role in the effective execution of construction projects. In the last twenty years (or so), there has been increase in the funds available for infrastructure development in tertiary institution in Nigeria, especially, through the Tertiary Education Trust Fund. This funding body ensures that there is enough fund for each approved project, which is released in three stages during the life of the construction project. However, a random tour of many of the institutions reveals striking evidence of projects not delivered on schedule, to quality and sometime out rightly abandoned. This suggests, therefore, that there are other latent factors, responsible for project delays, that should be investigated. Thus, this research, a pilot scheme, is aimed at unearthing the possible reasons for the delays being experienced in the execution of construction projects for infrastructure upgrade in public tertiary institutions in Nigeria, funded by Tertiary Education Trust Fund. The multiple site case study of qualitative research was adopted. The respondents were the Directors of Physical Planning and the Directors of Works of four Nigerian Public Universities. The findings reveal that delays can be situated within three entities, namely, the funding body, the institutions and others. Therefore, the emerging factors have been classified as external factors (haven to do with the funding body), internal factors (these concern the operations within the institutions) and general factors. The outcome of this pilot exercise provides useful information to guide the Directors as they interact with the funding body as well as challenges themselves to address the loopholes in their internal operations.

Keywords: delays, external factors, funding, general factors, Internal factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: Irina Mizeva, Elena Potapova, Viktor Dremin, Mikhail Mezentsev, Valeri Shupletsov

Abstract:

The local tissue perfusion is regulated by the microvascular tone which is under the control of a number of physiological mechanisms. Laser Doppler flowmetry (LDF) together with wavelet analyses is the most commonly used technique to study the regulatory mechanisms of cutaneous microcirculation. External factors such as temperature, local pressure of the probe on the skin, etc. influence on the blood flow characteristics and are used as physiological tests to evaluate microvascular regulatory mechanisms. Local probe pressure influences on the microcirculation parameters measured by optical methods: diffuse reflectance spectroscopy, fluorescence spectroscopy, and LDF. Therefore, further study of probe pressure effects can be useful to improve the reliability of optical measurement. During pressure tests variation of the mean perfusion measured by means of LDF usually is estimated. An additional information concerning the physiological mechanisms of the vascular tone regulation system in response to local pressure can be obtained using spectral analyses of LDF samples. The aim of the present work was to develop protocol and algorithm of data processing appropriate for study physiological response to the local pressure test. Involving 6 subjects (20±2 years) and providing 5 measurements for every subject we estimated intersubject and-inter group variability of response of both averaged and oscillating parts of the LDF sample on external surface pressure. The final purpose of the work was to find special features which further can be used in wider clinic studies. The cutaneous perfusion measurements were carried out by LAKK-02 (SPE LAZMA Ltd., Russia), the skin loading was provided by the originally designed device which allows one to distribute the pressure around the LDF probe. The probe was installed on the dorsal part of the distal finger of the index figure. We collected measurements continuously for one hour and varied loading from 0 to 180mmHg stepwise with a step duration of 10 minutes. Further, we post-processed the samples using the wavelet transform and traced the energy of oscillations in five frequency bands over time. Weak loading leads to pressure-induced vasodilation, so one should take into account that the perfusion measured under pressure conditions will be overestimated. On the other hand, we revealed a decrease in endothelial associated fluctuations. Further loading (88 mmHg) induces amplification of pulsations in all frequency bands. We assume that such loading leads to a higher number of closed capillaries, higher input of arterioles in the LDF signal and as a consequence more vivid oscillations which mainly are formed in arterioles. External pressure higher than 144 mmHg leads to the decrease of oscillating components, after removing the loading very rapid restore of the tissue perfusion takes place. In this work, we have demonstrated that local skin loading influence on the microcirculation parameters measured by optic technique; this should be taken into account while developing portable electronic devices. The proposed protocol of local loading allows one to evaluate PIV as far as to trace dynamic of blood flow oscillations. This study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation under project N 18-15-00201.

Keywords: blood microcirculation, laser Doppler flowmetry, pressure-induced vasodilation, wavelet analyses blood

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Hanen Bouaziz, Françoise Croute, Najiba Zeghal

Abstract:

In order to investigate the toxic effects of fluoride on cerebrum maturity of suckling mice, we treated adult female mice of Swiss Albinos strain by 500 ppm NaF in their drinking water from the 15th day of pregnancy until the day 14 after delivery. All mice were sacrificed on day 14 after parturition. During treatment, levels of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances, the marker of lipid peroxidation extend, increased, while the activities of the antioxidant enzymes such as glutathione peroxidase, superoxide dismutase and catalase and the level of glutathione decreased significantly in cerebellum compared with those of the control group. These results suggested that fluoride enhanced oxidative stress, thereby disturbing the antioxidant defense of nursing pups. In addition, acetylcholinesterase activity in cerebellum was inhibited after treatment with fluoride. In cerebellum of mice, migration of neurons from the external granular layer to the internal granular layer occurred postnatally. Key guidance signals to these migrating neurons were provided by laminin, an extracellular matrix protein fixed to the surface of astrocytes. In the present study, we examined the expression and distribution of laminin in cerebellum of 14-day-old mice. Immunoreactive laminin was disappeared by postnatal day 14 in cerebellum parenchyma of control pups and was restricted to vasculature despite the continued presence of granular cells in the external granular layer. In contrast, in cerebellum of NaF treated pups, laminin was deposited in organised punctuate clusters in the molecular layer. These data indicated that the disruption of laminin distribution might play a major role in the profound derangement of neuronal migration observed in cerebellum of NaF treated pups.

Keywords: acetylcholinesterase activity, cerebellum, laminin, oxidative stress, suckling mice

Procedia PDF Downloads 397

Authors: Iftikhar Ahmad, Youssef Elkezza

Abstract:

Sarir oilfield is in North Africa. It has facilities for oil and gas production. The assets of the Sarir oilfield can be divided into five following categories, namely: (i) well bore and wellheads; (ii) vessels such as separators, desalters, and gas processing facilities; (iii) pipelines including all flow lines, trunk lines, and shipping lines; (iv) storage tanks; (v) other assets such as turbines and compressors, etc. The nature of the petroleum industry recognizes the potential human, environmental and financial consequences that can result from failing to maintain the integrity of wellheads, vessels, tanks, pipelines, and other assets. The importance of effective asset integrity management increases as the industry infrastructure continues to age. The primary objective of assets integrity management (AIM) is to maintain assets in a fit-for-service condition while extending their remaining life in the most reliable, safe, and cost-effective manner. Corrosion management is one of the important aspects of successful asset integrity management. It covers corrosion mitigation, monitoring, inspection, and risk evaluation. External corrosion on pipelines, well bores, buried assets, and bottoms of tanks is controlled with a combination of coatings by cathodic protection, while the external corrosion on surface equipment, wellheads, and storage tanks is controlled by coatings. The periodic cleaning of the pipeline by pigging helps in the prevention of internal corrosion. Further, internal corrosion of pipelines is prevented by chemical treatment and controlled operations. This paper describes the integrity management system used in the Sarir oil field for its oil and gas production facilities based on standard practices of corrosion mitigation and inspection.

Keywords: assets integrity management, corrosion prevention in oilfield assets, corrosion management in oilfield, corrosion prevention, inspection activities

Procedia PDF Downloads 90

Authors: Raman Sharma, Ashok Kumar, Vipin Koushal

Abstract:

Healthcare facilities are always seen as places of haven and protection for managing the external incidents, but the situation becomes more difficult and challenging when such facilities themselves are affected from internal hazards. Such internal hazards are arguably more disruptive than external incidents affecting vulnerable ones, as patients are always dependent on supportive measures and are neither in a position to respond to such crisis situation nor do they know how to respond. The situation becomes more arduous and exigent to manage if, in case critical care areas like Intensive Care Units (ICUs) and Operating Rooms (OR) are convoluted. And, due to these complexities of patients’ in-housed there, it becomes difficult to move such critically ill patients on immediate basis. Healthcare organisations use different types of electrical equipment, inflammable liquids, and medical gases often at a single point of use, hence, any sort of error can spark the fire. Even though healthcare facilities face many fire hazards, damage caused by smoke rather than flames is often more severe. Besides burns, smoke inhalation is primary cause of fatality in fire-related incidents. The greatest cause of illness and mortality in fire victims, particularly in enclosed places, appears to be the inhalation of fire smoke, which contains a complex mixture of gases in addition to carbon monoxide. Therefore, healthcare organizations are required to have a well-planned disaster mitigation strategy, proactive and well prepared manpower to cater all types of exigencies resulting from internal as well as external hazards. This case report delineates a true OR fire incident in Emergency Operation Theatre (OT) of a tertiary care multispecialty hospital and details the real life evidence of the challenges encountered by OR staff in preserving both life and property. No adverse event was reported during or after this fire commotion, yet, this case report aimed to congregate the lessons identified of the incident in a sequential and logical manner. Also, timely smoke evacuation and preventing the spread of smoke to adjoining patient care areas by opting appropriate measures, viz. compartmentation, pressurisation, dilution, ventilation, buoyancy, and airflow, helped to reduce smoke-related fatalities. Henceforth, precautionary measures may be implemented to mitigate such incidents. Careful coordination, continuous training, and fire drill exercises can improve the overall outcomes and minimize the possibility of these potentially fatal problems, thereby making a safer healthcare environment for every worker and patient.

Keywords: healthcare, fires, smoke, management, strategies

Procedia PDF Downloads 68

Authors: K. Geetha Ramesh, A. Ramachandraiah

Abstract:

In an internal building space, daylight becomes a powerful source of illumination. The challenge therefore, is to develop means of utilizing both direct and diffuse natural light in buildings while maintaining and improving occupant's visual comfort, particularly at greater distances from the windows throwing daylight. The geometrical features of windows in a building have significant effect in providing daylight. The main goal of this research is to develop an innovative window geometry, which will effectively provide the daylight component adequately together with internal reflected component(IRC) and also the external reflected component(ERC), if any. This involves exploration of a light redirecting system using fractal geometry for windows, in order to penetrate and distribute daylight more uniformly to greater depths, minimizing heat gain and glare, and also to reduce building energy use substantially. Of late the creation of fractal geometrical window and the occurrence of daylight illuminance due to such windows is becoming an interesting study. The amount of daylight can change significantly based on the window geometry and sky conditions. This leads to the (i) exploration of various fractal patterns suitable for window designs, and (ii) quantification of the effect of chosen fractal window based on the relationship between the fractal pattern, size, orientation and glazing properties for optimizing daylighting. There are a lot of natural lighting applications able to predict the behaviour of a light in a room through a traditional opening - a regular window. The conventional prediction methodology involves the evaluation of the daylight factor, the internal reflected component and the external reflected component. Having evaluated the daylight illuminance level for a conventional window, the technical performance of a fractal window for an optimal daylighting is to be studied and compared with that of a regular window. The methodologies involved are highlighted in this paper.

Keywords: daylighting, fractal geometry, fractal window, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 301

Authors: G. De Matteis, L. Martina, V. Turco

Abstract:

The work is focused on determining and comparing special nonlinear static configurations in cholesteric liquid crystals (CLCs), confined between two parallel plates and in the presence of an external static electric/magnetic field. The solutions are stabilised by topological and non-topological conservation laws since they are described in terms of integrable or partially integrable nonlinear boundary value problems. In cholesteric liquid crystals which are subject to geometric frustration; anchoring conditions at boundaries, i.e., homeotropic conditions, are incompatible with the cholesteric twist. This aspect turns out to be essential in the admissible classes of solutions, allowing also for disclination type singularities. Within the framework of Frank-Oseen theory, we study the static configurations for CLCs. First, we find numerical solutions for isolated axisymmetric states in confined CLCs with weak homeotropic anchoring at the boundaries. These solutions describe 3-dimensional modulations, namely spherulites or cholesteric bubbles, actually observed in these systems, of standard baby skyrmions. Relations with well-known nonlinear integrable systems are found and are used to explore the asymptotic behavior of the solutions. Then we turn our attention to extended periodic static configurations called Helicoids or cholesteric fingers, described by an elliptic sine-Gordon model with appropriate boundary conditions, showing how their period and energies are determined by both the thickness of the cell and the intensity of the external electric/magnetic field. We explicitly show that helicoids with π or 2π of rotations of the molecular director are different in many aspects and are not simply algebraically related. The behaviour of the solutions, their energy and the properties of the associated disclinations are discussed in detail, both analytically and numerically.

Keywords: cholesteric liquid crystals, geometric frustration, helicoids, skyrmions

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Lee Sunghyoun, Yu Byeongkee, Kim Hyuckjoo, Yun Namkyu, Jung Jongcheon

Abstract:

Most of the recent on-sale oyster mushrooms are raised in a oyster mushroom house, in which the necessary adjustment of growing condition is feasible. The rationale for such artificial growing is the impossibility of successive cultivation in the case of a natural cultivation due to external weather conditions. A oyster mushroom house adopts an equipment called growing bed, laying one growing bed upon another in a multi-column fashion, growing and developing the mushrooms on the respective equipments. The indispensable environment management factors of mushroom cultivation are temperature, humidity, and CO2; on which an appropriate regulation of the three requisites is a necessitated condition for the sake of the total output’s increase. However, due to the multiple layers of growing bed’s disturbance on air circulation, a oyster mushroom house’s internal environmental uniformity meets with considerable instability. This research presents a technology which assures the facilitation of environment regulation over all the internal space of a oyster mushroom house, irrespective of its location. The research staff reinforced the oyster mushroom house’s insulation in order to minimize the external environment’s influence on the oyster mushroom house’s internal environment and installed circulation fan to improve the oyster mushroom house’s interior environmental uniformity. Also, the humidifier nozzle’s position was set to prevent dew condensation when humidifying. As a result, a highly sophisticated management over all the oyster mushroom house‘s internal space was realized with the temperature of 0.2~1.3℃, and the relative humidity of 2~7% at the cultivating stage of mushroom’s growth. Therefore, to maximize oyster mushroom house‘s internal environmental uniformity, it can be concluded that consideration of various factors such as insulation reinforcement, decision on the humidifier nozzle’s location, disposition of circulation fan’s installation and the direction of wind discharge is needed.

Keywords: mushroom growing facility, environmental uniformity, temperature, relative humidity, CO2 concentration

Procedia PDF Downloads 531

Authors: M. I. A. Adziz, J. Sharib Sarip, M. T. Ishak, D. N. A. Tugi

Abstract:

Radiation exposure to humans and the environment is caused by natural radioactive material sources. Given that exposure to people and communities can occur through several pathways, it is necessary to pay attention to the increase in naturally radioactive material, particularly in the soil. Continuous research and monitoring on the distribution and determination of these natural radionuclides' activity as a guide and reference are beneficial, especially in an accidental exposure. Surface soil/sediment samples from several locations identified around the Sembrong catchment area were taken for the study. After 30 days of secular equilibrium with their daughters, the activity concentrations of the naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM) members, i.e. ²²⁶Ra, ²²⁸Ra, ²³⁸U, ²³²Th, and ⁴⁰K, were measured using high purity germanium (HPGe) gamma spectrometer. The results obtained showed that the radioactivity concentration of ²³⁸U ranged between 17.13 - 30.13 Bq/kg, ²³²Th ranged between 22.90 - 40.05 Bq/kg, ²²⁶Ra ranged between 19.19 - 32.10 Bq/kg, ²²⁸Ra ranged between 21.08 - 39.11 Bq/kg and ⁴⁰K ranged between 9.22 - 51.07 Bq/kg with average values of 20.98 Bq/kg, 27.39 Bq/kg, 23.55 Bq/kg, 26.93 Bq/kg and 23.55 Bq/kg respectively. The values obtained from this study were low or equivalent to previously reported in previous studies. It was also found that the mean/mean values obtained for the four parameters of the Radiation Hazard Index, namely radium equivalent activity (Raeq), external dose rate (D), annual effective dose and external hazard index (Hₑₓ), were 65.40 Bq/kg, 29.33 nGy/h, 19.18 ¹⁰⁻⁶Sv and 0.19 respectively. These obtained values are low compared to the world average values and the values of globally applied standards. Comparison with previous studies (dry season) also found that the values for all four parameters were low and equivalent. This indicates the level of radiation hazard in the area around the study is safe for the public.

Keywords: catchment area, gamma spectrometry, naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM), soil

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Renu Gautam, S. M. S. Chauhan

Abstract:

The magnetic Fe3O4 nanoparticles has been used as an efficient and facile acid catalyst for the synthesis of calix[4]pyrrole in moderate to excellent yields by the one pot condensation of different ketones and pyrrole. The catalyst was easily recovered using external magnet and reused over several cycles without losing its catalytic activity.

Keywords: calix[4]pyrrole, magnetic, Fe3O4 nanoparticles, catalysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 438

Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

Abstract:

In construction projects, predicting project performance metrics accurately is essential for effective management and successful delivery. However, conventional methods often depend on fixed baseline plans, disregarding the evolving nature of project progress and external influences. To address this issue, we introduce a distinct approach based on machine learning to forecast key performance indicators, such as cost variance and earned value, for each Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) category within an urban road reconstruction project. Our proposed model leverages time series forecasting techniques, namely Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, to predict future performance by analyzing historical data and project progress. Additionally, the model incorporates external factors, including weather patterns and resource availability, as features to improve forecast accuracy. By harnessing the predictive capabilities of machine learning, our performance forecasting model enables project managers to proactively identify potential deviations from the baseline plan and take timely corrective measures. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, we conduct a case study on an urban road reconstruction project, comparing the model's predictions with actual project performance data. The outcomes of this research contribute to the advancement of project management practices in the construction industry by providing a data-driven solution for enhancing project performance monitoring and control.

Keywords: project performance forecasting, machine learning, time series forecasting, cost variance, schedule variance, earned value management

Procedia PDF Downloads 40