Search results for: expected annual loss
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 7248

Search results for: expected annual loss

6888 Economical Working Hours per Workday for a Production Worker under Hazardous Environment

Authors: Mohammed Darwish

Abstract:

Workplace injuries cost organizations significant amount of money. Causes of injuries at workplace are very well documented in the literature and attributed to variety of reasons. One important reason is the long working-hours. The purpose of this paper is to develop a mathematical model that finds the optimal working-hours at workplace. The developed model minimizes the expected total cost which consists of the expected cost incurred due to unsafe conditions of workplace, the other cost is related to the lost production due to work incidents, and the production cost.

Keywords: 8-hour workday, mathematical model, optimal working hours, workplace injuries

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6887 A Numerical and Experimental Study on Fast Pyrolysis of Single Wood Particle

Authors: Hamid Rezaei, Xiaotao Bi, C. Jim Lim, Anthony Lau, Shahab Sokhansanj

Abstract:

A one-dimensional heat transfer model coupled with the kinetic information has been used to predict the overall pyrolysis mass loss of a single wood particle. The kinetic parameters were determined experimentally and the regime and characteristics of the conversion were evaluated in terms of the particle size and reactor temperature. The order of overall mass loss changed from n=1 at temperatures lower than 350 °C to n=0.5 at temperatures higher that 350 °C. Conversion time analysis showed that particles larger than 0.5 mm were controlled by internal thermal resistances. The valid range of particle size to use the simplified lumped model depends on the fluid temperature around the particles. The critical particle size was 0.6-0.7 mm for the fluid temperature of 500 °C and 0.9-1.0 mm for the fluid temperature of 100 °C. Experimental pyrolysis of moist particles did not show distinct drying and pyrolysis stages. The process was divided into two hypothetical drying and pyrolysis dominated zones and empirical correlations are developed to predict the rate of mass loss in each zone.

Keywords: pyrolysis, kinetics, model, single particle

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6886 Multi-Scale Spatial Difference Analysis Based on Nighttime Lighting Data

Authors: Qinke Sun, Liang Zhou

Abstract:

The ‘Dragon-Elephant Debate’ between China and India is an important manifestation of global multipolarity in the 21st century. The two rising powers have carried out economic reforms one after another in the interval of more than ten years, becoming the fastest growing developing country and emerging economy in the world. At the same time, the development differences between China and India have gradually attracted wide attention of scholars. Based on the continuous annual night light data (DMSP-OLS) from 1992 to 2012, this paper systematically compares and analyses the regional development differences between China and India by Gini coefficient, coefficient of variation, comprehensive night light index (CNLI) and hot spot analysis. The results show that: (1) China's overall expansion from 1992 to 2012 is 1.84 times that of India, in which China's change is 2.6 times and India's change is 2 times. The percentage of lights in unlighted areas in China dropped from 92% to 82%, while that in India from 71% to 50%. (2) China's new growth-oriented cities appear in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, Ordos, and Urumqi in the west, and the declining cities are concentrated in Liaoning Province and Jilin Province in the northeast; India's new growth-oriented cities are concentrated in Chhattisgarh in the north, while the declining areas are distributed in Uttar Pradesh. (3) China's differences on different scales are lower than India's, and regional inequality of development is gradually narrowing. Gini coefficients at the regional and provincial levels have decreased from 0.29, 0.44 to 0.24 and 0.38, respectively, while regional inequality in India has slowly improved and regional differences are gradually widening, with Gini coefficients rising from 0.28 to 0.32. The provincial Gini coefficient decreased slightly from 0.64 to 0.63. (4) The spatial pattern of China's regional development is mainly east-west difference, which shows the difference between coastal and inland areas; while the spatial pattern of India's regional development is mainly north-south difference, but because the southern states are sea-dependent, it also reflects the coastal inland difference to a certain extent. (5) Beijing and Shanghai present a multi-core outward expansion model, with an average annual CNLI higher than 0.01, while New Delhi and Mumbai present the main core enhancement expansion model, with an average annual CNLI lower than 0.01, of which the average annual CNLI in Shanghai is about five times that in Mumbai.

Keywords: spatial pattern, spatial difference, DMSP-OLS, China, India

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6885 Flood Hazard and Risk Mapping to Assess Ice-Jam Flood Mitigation Measures

Authors: Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt, Apurba Das, Joel Trudell, Keanne Russell

Abstract:

In this presentation, we explore options for mitigating ice-jam flooding along the Athabasca River in western Canada. Not only flood hazard, expressed in this case as the probability of flood depths and extents being exceeded, but also flood risk, in which annual expected damages are calculated. Flood risk is calculated, which allows a cost-benefit analysis to be made so that decisions on the best mitigation options are not based solely on flood hazard but also on the costs related to flood damages and the benefits of mitigation. The river ice model is used to simulate extreme ice-jam flood events with which scenarios are run to determine flood exposure and damages in flood-prone areas along the river. We will concentrate on three mitigation options – the placement of a dike, artificial breakage of the ice cover along the river, the installation of an ice-control structure, and the construction of a reservoir. However, any mitigation option is not totally failsafe. For example, dikes can still be overtopped and breached, and ice jams may still occur in areas of the river where ice covers have been artificially broken up. Hence, for all options, it is recommended that zoning of building developments away from greater flood hazard areas be upheld. Flood mitigation can have a negative effect of giving inhabitants a false sense of security that flooding may not happen again, leading to zoning policies being relaxed. (Text adapted from Lindenschmidt [2022] "Ice Destabilization Study - Phase 2", submitted to the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, Alberta, Canada)

Keywords: ice jam, flood hazard, flood risk river ice modelling, flood risk

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6884 Loss Minimization by Distributed Generation Allocation in Radial Distribution System Using Crow Search Algorithm

Authors: M. Nageswara Rao, V. S. N. K. Chaitanya, K. Amarendranath

Abstract:

This paper presents an optimal allocation and sizing of Distributed Generation (DG) in Radial Distribution Network (RDN) for total power loss minimization and enhances the voltage profile of the system. The two main important part of this study first is to find optimal allocation and second is optimum size of DG. The locations of DGs are identified by Analytical expressions and crow search algorithm has been employed to determine the optimum size of DG. In this study, the DG has been placed on single and multiple allocations.CSA is a meta-heuristic algorithm inspired by the intelligent behavior of the crows. Crows stores their excess food in different locations and memorizes those locations to retrieve it when it is needed. They follow each other to do thievery to obtain better food source. This analysis is tested on IEEE 33 bus and IEEE 69 bus under MATLAB environment and the results are compared with existing methods.

Keywords: analytical expression, distributed generation, crow search algorithm, power loss, voltage profile

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6883 Cycads Bark Harvest in Limpopo Province in South Africa: A Negative Practice Contributing to Biodiversity Loss

Authors: S. O. Bamigboye, P. M. Tshisikhawe, P. J. Taylor

Abstract:

Cycads are the most threatened plant species in the world. In South Africa over 70% of cycads are threatened with extinction with 60% of them as a result of bark harvest of these highly endangered species for medicinal purposes. 3 cycads species in South Africa have gone extinct due to bark harvest for medicinal purpose. This practice keeps increasing biodiversity loss within the nation and this has generated concern for conservationists on different way to discover how people go about this practices and how it can be discouraged. Studies have revealed this practice to be common practice in provinces like Kwazulu natal, Eastern cape, Gauteng, Mpumalanga, but studies in the past have not really focused on cycads bark harvest in Limpopo province. In this study we use the indigenous knowledge to discover a particular location within the Soutpansberg Montane (a major biodiversity hotspot in Limpopo Province in South Africa) in Vhembe district in Limpopo province not yet conserved where we have a highly disturbed population of cycads. Several individuals of cycads species have been highly damaged due to bark harvest in this location. We are about proposing that such areas needs attention for conservation to prevent the loss of these species endemic to this particular location. Our study hereby reveals that cycads bark harvest which is a major threat to African cycads is also a common practice in Limpopo Province in South Africa. Rigorous conservation action is required to discourage this practice in order to prevent further biodiversity loss in this region.

Keywords: bark harvest, Cycads, conservation, extinction, Limpopo

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6882 Financial Reporting Quality and International Financial Reporting

Authors: Matthias Nnadi

Abstract:

Using samples of 250 large listed firms by market capitalization in China and Hong Kong, we conducted empirical test to determine the impact of regulatory environment on reporting quality following IFRS convergence using three financial reporting measures; earning management, timely loss recognition and value relevance. Our results indicate that accounting data are more value relevant for Hong Kong listed firms than the Chinese A-share firms. The empirical results for timely loss recognition further reveal that there is a larger coefficient estimate on bad news earnings, which suggests that Chines A-share firms are more likely to report losses in a timely manner. The results support the evidence that substantial convergence of IFRS can improve financial reporting quality in a regulated environment such as China. This further supports the expectation that IFRS are relevant to China and has positive effect on its accounting practice and quality.

Keywords: reporting, quality, earning, loss, relevance, financial, China, Hong Kong

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6881 There Is No Meaningful Opportunity in Meaningless Data: Why It Is Unconstitutional to Use Life Expectancy Tables in Post-Graham Sentences

Authors: Stacie Nelson Colling, Adele Cummings

Abstract:

The United States Supreme Court recently announced that it is unconstitutional to sentence a child to life without parole for non-homicide offenses, and that each child so situated must be afforded a meaningful opportunity for release from prison in his lifetime. The Court also declared that it is unconstitutional to impose a mandatory sentence of life without parole on a child for homicide offenses. Across the United States, attorneys and advocates continue to litigate issues surrounding the implementation of these legal principles. Some states have held that any sentence to a finite term of years, no matter how long, is not the same as ‘life’ and therefore does not violate the constitution. Other states have held that a sentence to a term of years that is less than the expected life of that particular child is not unconstitutional. In Colorado, the courts have routinely looked to life expectancy estimates from governmental organizations to determine how long a particular child is expected to live. They then compare that the date that the child is expected to be eligible for parole, and if the child is expected to still be living when he is eligible for parole, the sentence is deemed constitutional. This paper argues that it is inappropriate, reckless, unconstitutional and not scientifically sound to use such estimates in determining whether a child will have a meaningful opportunity for release from prison and life outside of prison before he dies. This paper argues that the opportunity for release must mean more than a probability that a child will be released before his death, and that it must include an opportunity for a meaningful life outside of prison (not just the opportunity to be released and then die on the outside). The paper further argues that life expectancy estimates cannot guide a court or a legislature in determining whether a sentence is or is not constitutional.

Keywords: life without parole, life expectancy, juvenile sentencing, meaningful opportunity for release from prison

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6880 Modelling the Effect of Biomass Appropriation for Human Use on Global Biodiversity

Authors: Karina Reiter, Stefan Dullinger, Christoph Plutzar, Dietmar Moser

Abstract:

Due to population growth and changing patterns of production and consumption, the demand for natural resources and, as a result, the pressure on Earth’s ecosystems are growing. Biodiversity mapping can be a useful tool for assessing species endangerment or detecting hotspots of extinction risks. This paper explores the benefits of using the change in trophic energy flows as a consequence of the human alteration of the biosphere in biodiversity mapping. To this end, multiple linear regression models were developed to explain species richness in areas where there is no human influence (i.e. wilderness) for three taxonomic groups (birds, mammals, amphibians). The models were then applied to predict (I) potential global species richness using potential natural vegetation (NPPpot) and (II) global ‘actual’ species richness after biomass appropriation using NPP remaining in ecosystems after harvest (NPPeco). By calculating the difference between predicted potential and predicted actual species numbers, maps of estimated species richness loss were generated. Results show that biomass appropriation for human use can indeed be linked to biodiversity loss. Areas for which the models predicted high species loss coincide with areas where species endangerment and extinctions are recorded to be particularly high by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN). Furthermore, the analysis revealed that while the species distribution maps of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species used for this research can determine hotspots of biodiversity loss in large parts of the world, the classification system for threatened and extinct species needs to be revised to better reflect local risks of extinction.

Keywords: biodiversity loss, biomass harvest, human appropriation of net primary production, species richness

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6879 The Phosphatidate Phosphatase Pah1 and Its Regulator Nem1/spo7 Protein Phosphatase Required for Nucleophagy

Authors: Muhammad Arifur Rahman, Talukdar M. Waliullah, Takashi Ushimaru

Abstract:

Nucleophagy selectively degrades nuclear materials, especially nucleolus after nutrient starvation or inactivation of TORC1 kinase in budding yeast. Budding yeast phosphatidate (PA) phosphatase Pah1 that converts PA to diacylglycerol is essential for partitioning of lipid precursors between membrane and storage that is crucial for many aspects of cell growth and development. Pah1 is required for nuclear/ER membrane biogenesis and vacuole function, but whether Pah1 and its activator Nem1/Spo7 protein phosphatase complex are involved in autophagy is largely unknown. Loss of Pah1 causes expansion of the nucleus and fragmentation of the vacuole. Here we show that Pah1 is required for bulk autophagy and nucleophagy after TORC1 inactivation. Loss of Pah1 impaired nucleophagy severely and bulk autophagy to a lesser extent. Loss of the Pah1 activator Nem1-Spo7 protein phosphatase exhibited similar features.

Keywords: autophagy, Nem1/Spo7 phosphatase, Pah1, nucleophagy, TORC1

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6878 Analysis of Energy Efficiency Behavior with the Use of Train Dynamics Simulator and Statistical Tools: Case Study of Vitoria Minas Railway, Brazil

Authors: Eric Wilson Santos Cabral, Marta Monteiro Da Costa Cruz, Fabio Luis Maciel Machado, Henrique Andrade, Rodrigo Pirola Pestana, Vivian Andrea Parreira

Abstract:

The large variation in the price of diesel in Brazil directly affects the variable cost of companies operating in the transportation sector. In rail transport, the great challenge is to overcome the annual budget, cargo and ore transported with cost reduction in relation to previous years, becoming more efficient every year. Some effective measures are necessary to achieve the reduction of the liter ratio consumed by KTKB (Gross Ton per Kilometer multiplied by thousand). This acronym represents the indicator of energy efficiency of some railroads in the world. This study is divided into two parts: the first, to identify using statistical tools, part of the controlled variables in the railways, which have a correlation with the energy efficiency indicator, seeking to aid decision-making. The second, with the use of the train dynamics simulator, within scenarios defined in the operational reality of a railroad, seeks to optimize the train formations and the train stop model for the change of train drivers. With the completion of the study, companies in the rail sector are expected to be able to reduce some of their transportation costs.

Keywords: railway transport, railway simulation, energy efficiency, fuel consumption

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6877 Examining the Association of Demographic Factors and Arab Women’s Investment Behavior

Authors: Razan Salem

Abstract:

Men and women are different, and so their investment behaviors may also vary. To the author’s best knowledge, women's investment behavior and its association with demographic factors have not been explored directly in the behavioral finance literature, however, particularly in respect to the Arab region. Thus, this study extends the literature by focusing on examining the association of demographic factors (age, annual income, and education) with Arab women’s investment behavior. To achieve the study’s aim, the researcher distributed 600 close-ended online questionnaires to a sample of Arab male and female individual investors in both Saudi Arabia and Jordan; using Kruskal-Wallis H Test and the Mann-Whitney U Test to analyze the data. The findings reveal that age, education, and level of income are associated with Arab women’s investment behavior. Educational level and level of income are positively associated with Arab women investment confidence level. On the contrary, age is negatively associated with Arab women financial risk tolerance. According to annual income, Arab women with lower incomes have lower confidence and investment literacy levels. Overall, the study concludes that age, income, and education are important demographic factors that must be considered when investigating the investment behavior of women in the Arab region.

Keywords: Arab region, demographic factors, investment behavior, women investors

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6876 Skew Planar Wheel Antenna for First Person View of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

Authors: Raymond Yudhi Purba, Levy Olivia Nur, Radial Anwar

Abstract:

This research presents the design and measurement of a skew planar wheel antenna that is used to visualize the first person view perspective of unmanned aerial vehicles. The antenna has been designed using CST Studio Suite 2019 to have voltage standing wave ratio (VSWR) ≤ 2, return loss ≤ -10 dB, bandwidth ≥ 100 MHz to covering outdoor access point band from 5.725 to 5.825 GHz, omnidirectional radiation pattern, and elliptical polarization. Dimensions of skew planar wheel antenna have been modified using parameter sweep technique to provide good performances. The simulation results provide VSWR 1.231, return loss -19.693 dB, bandwidth 828.8 MHz, gain 3.292 dB, and axial ratio 9.229 dB. Meanwhile, the measurement results provide VSWR 1.237, return loss -19.476 dB, bandwidth 790.5 MHz, gain 3.2034 dB, and axial ratio 4.12 dB.

Keywords: skew planar wheel, cloverleaf, first-person view, unmanned aerial vehicle, parameter sweep

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6875 The Experiences of Hong Kong Chinese Divorced Wives in Facing the Cancer Death of Their Ex-Husbands

Authors: M. L. Yeung

Abstract:

With the surge of divorce rate and male cancer onset/death rates, the phenomenon of divorced wives in the facing cancer death of their ex-husbands is not uncommon in Hong Kong. Yet, there is a dearth of study on the experiences of bereaved-divorced wives in the Hong Kong cultural context. This project fills the knowledge gap by conducting a qualitative study for having interviewed four bereaved ex-wives, who returned to ex-husbands’ end-of-life caregiving and eventually grieved for the ex-spousal’s death. From the perspectives of attachment theory and disenfranchised grief in the Hong Kong cultural context, a ‘double-loss’ experience is found in which interviewees suffer from the first loss of divorce and the second loss of ex-husbands’ death. Traumatic childhood experiences, attachment needs, role ambiguity, unresolved emotions and unrecognized grief are found significant in their lived experiences which alert the ‘double-loss’ is worthy of attention. Extending a family-centered end-of-life and bereavement care services to divorced couples is called for, in which validation on the attachment needs, ex-couple reconciliation, and acknowledgement on the disenfranchised grief are essential for social work practice on this group of clienteles specifically in Hong Kong cultural context.

Keywords: changing family, disenfranchised grief, divorce, ex-spousal death, marriage

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6874 The Decline of Verb-Second in the History of English: Combining Historical and Theoretical Explanations for Change

Authors: Sophie Whittle

Abstract:

Prior to present day, English syntax historically exhibited an inconsistent verb-second (V2) rule, which saw the verb move to the second position in the sentence following the fronting of a type of phrase. There was a high amount of variation throughout the history of English with regard to the ordering of subject and verb, and many explanations attempting to account for this variation have been documented in previous literature. However, these attempts have been contradictory, with many accounts positing the effect of previous syntactic changes as the main motivations behind the decline of V2. For instance, morphosyntactic changes, such as the loss of clitics and the loss of empty expletives, have been loosely connected to changes in frequency for the loss of V2. The questions surrounding the development of non-V2 in English have, therefore, yet to be answered. The current paper aims to bring together a number of explanations from different linguistic fields to determine the factors driving the changes in English V2. Using historical corpus-based methods, the study analyses both quantitatively and qualitatively the changes in frequency for the history of V2 in the Old, Middle, and Modern English periods to account for the variation in a range of sentential environments. These methods delve into the study of information structure, prosody and language contact to explain variation within different contexts. The analysis concludes that these factors, in addition to changes within the syntax, are responsible for the position of verb movement. The loss of V2 serves as an exemplar study within the field of historical linguistics, which combines a number of factors in explaining language change in general.

Keywords: corpora, English, language change, mixed-methods, syntax, verb-second

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6873 Sustainable Wood Harvesting from Juniperus procera Trees Managed under a Participatory Forest Management Scheme in Ethiopia

Authors: Mindaye Teshome, Evaldo Muñoz Braz, Carlos M. M. Eleto Torres, Patricia Mattos

Abstract:

Sustainable forest management planning requires up-to-date information on the structure, standing volume, biomass, and growth rate of trees from a given forest. This kind of information is lacking in many forests in Ethiopia. The objective of this study was to quantify the population structure, diameter growth rate, and standing volume of wood from Juniperus procera trees in the Chilimo forest. A total of 163 sample plots were set up in the forest to collect the relevant vegetation data. Growth ring measurements were conducted on stem disc samples collected from 12 J. procera trees. Diameter and height measurements were recorded from a total of 1399 individual trees with dbh ≥ 2 cm. The growth rate, maximum current and mean annual increments, minimum logging diameter, and cutting cycle were estimated, and alternative cutting cycles were established. Using these data, the harvestable volume of wood was projected by alternating four minimum logging diameters and five cutting cycles following the stand table projection method. The results show that J. procera trees have an average density of 183 stems ha⁻¹, a total basal area of 12.1 m² ha⁻¹, and a standing volume of 98.9 m³ ha⁻¹. The mean annual diameter growth ranges between 0.50 and 0.65 cm year⁻¹ with an overall mean of 0.59 cm year⁻¹. The population of J. procera tree followed a reverse J-shape diameter distribution pattern. The maximum current annual increment in volume (CAI) occurred at around 49 years when trees reached 30 cm in diameter. Trees showed the maximum mean annual increment in volume (MAI) around 91 years, with a diameter size of 50 cm. The simulation analysis revealed that 40 cm MLD and a 15-year cutting cycle are the best minimum logging diameter and cutting cycle. This combination showed the largest harvestable volume of wood potential, volume increments, and a 35% recovery of the initially harvested volume. It is concluded that the forest is well stocked and has a large amount of harvestable volume of wood from J. procera trees. This will enable the country to partly meet the national wood demand through domestic wood production. The use of the current population structure and diameter growth data from tree ring analysis enables the exact prediction of the harvestable volume of wood. The developed model supplied an idea about the productivity of the J. procera tree population and enables policymakers to develop specific management criteria for wood harvesting.

Keywords: logging, growth model, cutting cycle, minimum logging diameter

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6872 An Approach to Study the Biodegradation of Low Density Polyethylene Using Microbial Strains of Bacillus subtilus, Aspergillus niger, Pseudomonas fluroscence in Different Media Form and Salt Condition

Authors: Monu Ojha, Rahul Rana, Satywati Sharma, Kavya Dashora

Abstract:

The global production rate of plastics has increased enormously and global demand for polyethylene resins –High-density polyethylene (HDPE), Linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) and Low-density polyethylene (LDPE) is expected to rise drastically, with very high value. These get accumulated in the environment, posing a potential ecological threat as they are degrading at a very slow rate and remain in the environment indefinitely. The aim of the present study was to investigate the potential of commonly found soil microbes like Bacillus subtilus, Aspergillus niger, Pseudomonas fluroscence for their ability to biodegrade LDPE in the lab on solid and liquid media conditions as well as in presence of 1% salt in the soil. This study was conducted at Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, India from July to September where average temperature and RH (Relative Humidity) were 33 degrees Celcius and 80% respectively. It revealed that the weight loss of LDPE strip obtained from market of approximately 4x6 cm dimensions is more in liquid broth media than in solid agar media. The percentage weight loss by P. fluroscence, A. niger and B. subtilus observed after 80 days of incubation was 15.52, 9.24 and 8.99% respectively in broth media and 6.93, 2.18 and 4.76 % in agar media. The LDPE strips from same source and on the same were subjected to soil in presence of above microbes with 1% salt (NaCl: obtained from commercial table salt) with temperature and RH 33 degree Celcius and 80%. It was found that the rate of degradation increased in the soil than under lab conditions. The rate of weight loss of LDPE strips under same conditions given in lab was found to be 32.98, 15.01 and17.09 % by P. fluroscence, A. niger and B. subtilus respectively. The breaking strength was found to be 9.65N, 29N and 23.85 N for P. fluroscence, A. niger and B. subtilus respectively. SEM analysis conducted on Zeiss EVO 50 confirmed that surface of LDPE becomes physically weak after biological treatment. There was the increase in the surface roughness indicating Surface erosion of LDPE film. FTIR (Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy) analysis of the degraded LDPE films showed stretching of aldehyde group at 3334.92 and 3228.84 cm-1,, C–C=C symmetric of aromatic ring at 1639.49 cm-1.There was also C=O stretching of aldehyde group at 1735.93 cm-1. N=O peak bend was also observed which corresponds to 1365.60 cm-1, C–O stretching of ether group at 1217.08 and 1078.21 cm-1.

Keywords: microbial degradation, LDPE, Aspergillus niger, Bacillus subtilus, Peudomonas fluroscence, common salt

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6871 Coupled Analysis for Hazard Modelling of Debris Flow Due to Extreme Rainfall

Authors: N. V. Nikhil, S. R. Lee, Do Won Park

Abstract:

Korean peninsula receives about two third of the annual rainfall during summer season. The extreme rainfall pattern due to typhoon and heavy rainfall results in severe mountain disasters among which 55% of them are debris flows, a major natural hazard especially when occurring around major settlement areas. The basic mechanism underlined for this kind of failure is the unsaturated shallow slope failure by reduction of matric suction due to infiltration of water and liquefaction of the failed mass due to generation of positive pore water pressure leading to abrupt loss of strength and commencement of flow. However only an empirical model cannot simulate this complex mechanism. Hence, we have employed an empirical-physical based approach for hazard analysis of debris flow using TRIGRS, a debris flow initiation criteria and DAN3D in mountain Woonmyun, South Korea. Debris flow initiation criteria is required to discern the potential landslides which can transform into debris flow. DAN-3D, being a new model, does not have the calibrated values of rheology parameters for Korean conditions. Thus, in our analysis we have used the recent 2011 debris flow event in mountain Woonmyun san for calibration of both TRIGRS model and DAN-3D, thereafter identifying and predicting the debris flow initiation points, path, run out velocity, and area of spreading for future extreme rainfall based scenarios.

Keywords: debris flow, DAN-3D, extreme rainfall, hazard analysis

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6870 Factors Influencing the Voluntary Disclosure of Vietnamese Listed Companies

Authors: Pham Duc Hieu, Do Thi Huong Lan

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to investigate the factors affecting the extent of voluntary disclosure by examining the annual reports of 205 industrial and manufacturing companies listing on Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HSX) and Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) for the year end of 2012. Those factors include company size, profitability, leverage, state ownership, managerial ownership, and foreign ownership, board independence, role duality and type of external auditors. Evidence from this study suggests two main findings. (1) Companies with high foreign ownership have a high level of voluntary disclosure. (2) The company size is an important factor related to the increased level of voluntary disclosure in annual reports made by Vietnamese listed companies. The larger the company, the higher the information is disclosed. However, no significant associations are found between profitability, leverage, state ownership, managerial ownership, board independence, role duality and type of external auditors as hypothesized in this study.

Keywords: voluntary disclosure, Vietnamese listed companies, voluntary, duality

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6869 Optimization of Line Loss Minimization Using Distributed Generation

Authors: S. Sambath, P. Palanivel

Abstract:

Research conducted in the last few decades has proven that an inclusion of Distributed Genaration (DG) into distribution systems considerably lowers the level of power losses and the power quality improved. Moreover, the choice of DG is even more attractive since it provides not only benefits in power loss minimisation, but also a wide range of other advantages including environment, economic, power qualities and technical issues. This paper is an intent to quantify and analyse the impact of distributed generation (DG) in Tamil Nadu, India to examine what the benefits of decentralized generation would be for meeting rural loads. We used load flow analysis to simulate and quantify the loss reduction and power quality enhancement by having decentralized generation available line conditions for actual rural feeders in Tamil Nadu, India. Reactive and voltage profile was considered. This helps utilities to better plan their system in rural areas to meet dispersed loads, while optimizing the renewable and decentralised generation sources.

Keywords: distributed generation, distribution system, load flow analysis, optimal location, power quality

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6868 Soil Compaction by a Forwarder in Timber Harvesting

Authors: Juang R. Matangaran, Erianto I. Putra, Iis Diatin, Muhammad Mujahid, Qi Adlan

Abstract:

Industrial plantation forest is the producer of logs in Indonesia. Several companies of industrial plantation forest have been successfully planted with fast-growing species, and it entered their annual harvesting period. Heavy machines such as forwarders are used in timber harvesting to extract logs from stump to landing site. The negative impact of using such machines are loss of topsoil and soil compaction. Compacted soil is considered unfavorable for plant growth. The research objectives were to analyze the soil bulk density, rut, and cone index of the soil caused by a forwarder passes, to analyze the relation between several times of forwarder passes to the increase of soil bulk density. A Valmet forwarder was used in this research. Soil bulk density at soil surface and cone index from the soil surface to the 50 cm depth of soil were measured at the harvested area. The result showed that soil bulk density increase with the increase of the Valmet forwarder passes. Maximum soil bulk density occurred after 5 times forwarder Valmet passed. The cone index tended to increase from the surface until 50 cm depth of soil. Rut formed and high soil bulk density indicated the soil compaction occurred by the forwarder operation.

Keywords: bulk density, forwarder Valmet, plantation forest, soil compaction, timber harvesting

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6867 Time Series Modelling for Forecasting Wheat Production and Consumption of South Africa in Time of War

Authors: Yiseyon Hosu, Joseph Akande

Abstract:

Wheat is one of the most important staple food grains of human for centuries and is largely consumed in South Africa. It has a special place in the South African economy because of its significance in food security, trade, and industry. This paper modelled and forecast the production and consumption of wheat in South Africa in the time covid-19 and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war by using annual time series data from 1940–2021 based on the ARIMA models. Both the averaging forecast and selected models forecast indicate that there is the possibility of an increase with respect to production. The minimum and maximum growth in production is projected to be between 3million and 10 million tons, respectively. However, the model also forecast a possibility of depression with respect to consumption in South Africa. Although Covid-19 and the war between Ukraine and Russia, two major producers and exporters of global wheat, are having an effect on the volatility of the prices currently, the wheat production in South African is expected to increase and meat the consumption demand and provided an opportunity for increase export with respect to domestic consumption. The forecasting of production and consumption behaviours of major crops play an important role towards food and nutrition security, these findings can assist policymakers and will provide them with insights into the production and pricing policy of wheat in South Africa.

Keywords: ARIMA, food security, price volatility, staple food, South Africa

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6866 Weight Loss Degradation of Hybrid Blends LLDPE/Starch/PVA Upon Exposure to UV Light and Soil Burial

Authors: Rahmah M., Noor Zuhaira Abd Aziz, Farhan M., Mohd Muizz Fahimi M.

Abstract:

Polybag and mulch film for agricultural field pose environmental wastage upon disposal. Thus a degradable polybag was designed with hybrid sago starch (SS) and polyvinyl alcohol (PVA). Two Different blended composition of SS and PVA Hybrid have been compounded. Then, the hybrids blended are mixed with linear line density polyethylene (LLDPE) resin to fabricate polybag film through conventional film blowing process. Hybrid blends was compounded at different ratios. Samples of LLDPE, SS and PVA hybrid film were exposed to UV light and soil burial. The weight loss were determined during degradation process. Hybrid film by degradation of starch was found to decrease on esterification. However the hybrid film showed greater degradation in soil and uv radiation up to 60% of SS. Weight loss were also determined in control humidity oven with 70% humidity and temperature set up at 30 °C and left in humidity chamber for a month.

Keywords: LLDPE, PVA, sago starch, degradation, soil burial, uv radiation

Procedia PDF Downloads 633
6865 Laboratory Testing Regime for Quantifying Soil Collapsibility

Authors: Anne C. Okwedadi, Samson Ng’ambi, Ian Jefferson

Abstract:

Collapsible soils go through radical rearrangement of their particles when triggered by water, stress or/and vibration, causing loss of volume. This loss of volume in soil as seen in foundation failures has caused millions of dollars’ worth of damages to public facilities and infrastructure and so has an adverse effect on the society and people. Despite these consequences and the several studies that are available, more research is still required in the study of soil collapsibility. Discerning the pedogenesis (formation) of soils and investigating the combined effects of the different geological soil properties is key to elucidating and quantifying soils collapsibility. This study presents a novel laboratory testing regime that would be undertaken on soil samples where the effects of soil type, compactive variables (moisture content, density, void ratio, degree of saturation) and loading are analyzed. It is anticipated that results obtained would be useful in mapping the trend of the combined effect thus the basis for evaluating soil collapsibility or collapse potentials encountered in construction with volume loss problems attributed to collapse.

Keywords: collapsible soil, geomorphological process, soil collapsibility properties, soil test

Procedia PDF Downloads 471
6864 Possibilities and Challenges for District Heating

Authors: Louise Ödlund, Danica Djuric Ilic

Abstract:

From a system perspective, there are several benefits of DH. A possibility to utilize the excess heat from waste incineration and biomass-based combined heat and power (CHP) production (e.g. possibility to utilize the excess heat from electricity production) are two examples. However, in a future sustainable society, the benefits of DH may be less obvious. Due to the climate changes and increased energy efficiency of buildings, the demand for space heating is expected to decrease. Due to the society´s development towards circular economy, a larger amount of the waste will be material recycled, and the possibility for DH production by the energy recovery through waste incineration will be reduced. Furthermore, the benefits of biomass-based CHP production will be less obvious since the marginal electricity production will no longer be linked to high greenhouse gas emissions due to an increased share of renewable electricity capacity in the electricity system. The purpose of the study is (1) to provide an overview of the possible development of other sectors which may influence the DH in the future and (2) to detect new business strategies which would enable for DH to adapt to the future conditions and remain competitive to alternative heat production in the future. A system approach was applied where DH is seen as a part of an integrated system which consists of other sectors as well. The possible future development of other sectors and the possible business strategies for DH producers were searched through a systematic literature review In order to remain competitive to the alternative heat production in the future, DH producers need to develop new business strategies. While the demand for space heating is expected to decrease, the space cooling demand will probably increase due to the climate changes, but also due to the better insulation of buildings in the cases where the home appliances are the heat sources. This opens up a possibility for applying DH-driven absorption cooling, which would increase the annual capacity utilization of the DH plants. The benefits of the DH related to the energy recovery from the waste incineration will exist in the future since there will always be a need to take care of materials and waste that cannot be recycled (e.g. waste containing organic toxins, bacteria, such as diapers and hospital waste). Furthermore, by operating central controlled heat pumps, CHP plants, and heat storage depending on the intermittent electricity production variation, the DH companies may enable an increased share of intermittent electricity production in the national electricity grid. DH producers can also enable development of local biofuel supply chains and reduce biofuel production costs by integrating biofuel and DH production in local DH systems.

Keywords: district heating, sustainable business strategies, sustainable development, system approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 84
6863 Long-Term Variabilities and Tendencies in the Zonally Averaged TIMED-SABER Ozone and Temperature in the Middle Atmosphere over 10°N-15°N

Authors: Oindrila Nath, S. Sridharan

Abstract:

Long-term (2002-2012) temperature and ozone measurements by Sounding of Atmosphere by Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument onboard Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite zonally averaged over 10°N-15°N are used to study their long-term changes and their responses to solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation and El Nino Southern Oscillation. The region is selected to provide more accurate long-term trends and variabilities, which were not possible earlier with lidar measurements over Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E), which are limited to cloud-free nights, whereas continuous data sets of SABER temperature and ozone are available. Regression analysis of temperature shows a cooling trend of 0.5K/decade in the stratosphere and that of 3K/decade in the mesosphere. Ozone shows a statistically significant decreasing trend of 1.3 ppmv per decade in the mesosphere although there is a small positive trend in stratosphere at 25 km. Other than this no significant ozone trend is observed in stratosphere. Negative ozone-QBO response (0.02ppmv/QBO), positive ozone-solar cycle (0.91ppmv/100SFU) and negative response to ENSO (0.51ppmv/SOI) have been found more in mesosphere whereas positive ozone response to ENSO (0.23ppmv/SOI) is pronounced in stratosphere (20-30 km). The temperature response to solar cycle is more positive (3.74K/100SFU) in the upper mesosphere and its response to ENSO is negative around 80 km and positive around 90-100 km and its response to QBO is insignificant at most of the heights. Composite monthly mean of ozone volume mixing ratio shows maximum values during pre-monsoon and post-monsoon season in middle stratosphere (25-30 km) and in upper mesosphere (85-95 km) around 10 ppmv. Composite monthly mean of temperature shows semi-annual variation with large values (~250-260 K) in equinox months and less values in solstice months in upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere (40-55 km) whereas the SAO becomes weaker above 55 km. The semi-annual variation again appears at 80-90 km, with large values in spring equinox and winter months. In the upper mesosphere (90-100 km), less temperature (~170-190 K) prevails in all the months except during September, when the temperature is slightly more. The height profiles of amplitudes of semi-annual and annual oscillations in ozone show maximum values of 6 ppmv and 2.5 ppmv respectively in upper mesosphere (80-100 km), whereas SAO and AO in temperature show maximum values of 5.8 K and 4.6 K in lower and middle mesosphere around 60-85 km. The phase profiles of both SAO and AO show downward progressions. These results are being compared with long-term lidar temperature measurements over Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) and the results obtained will be presented during the meeting.

Keywords: trends, QBO, solar cycle, ENSO, ozone, temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 410
6862 Winter – Not Spring - Climate Drives Annual Adult Survival in Common Passerines: A Country-Wide, Multi-Species Modeling Exercise

Authors: Manon Ghislain, Timothée Bonnet, Olivier Gimenez, Olivier Dehorter, Pierre-Yves Henry

Abstract:

Climatic fluctuations affect the demography of animal populations, generating changes in population size, phenology, distribution and community assemblages. However, very few studies have identified the underlying demographic processes. For short-lived species, like common passerine birds, are these changes generated by changes in adult survival or in fecundity and recruitment? This study tests for an effect of annual climatic conditions (spring and winter) on annual, local adult survival at very large spatial (a country, 252 sites), temporal (25 years) and biological (25 species) scales. The Constant Effort Site ringing has allowed the collection of capture - mark - recapture data for 100 000 adult individuals since 1989, over metropolitan France, thus documenting annual, local survival rates of the most common passerine birds. We specifically developed a set of multi-year, multi-species, multi-site Bayesian models describing variations in local survival and recapture probabilities. This method allows for a statistically powerful hierarchical assessment (global versus species-specific) of the effects of climate variables on survival. A major part of between-year variations in survival rate was common to all species (74% of between-year variance), whereas only 26% of temporal variation was species-specific. Although changing spring climate is commonly invoked as a cause of population size fluctuations, spring climatic anomalies (mean precipitation or temperature for March-August) do not impact adult survival: only 1% of between-year variation of species survival is explained by spring climatic anomalies. However, for sedentary birds, winter climatic anomalies (North Atlantic Oscillation) had a significant, quadratic effect on adult survival, birds surviving less during intermediate years than during more extreme years. For migratory birds, we do not detect an effect of winter climatic anomalies (Sahel Rainfall). We will analyze the life history traits (migration, habitat, thermal range) that could explain a different sensitivity of species to winter climate anomalies. Overall, we conclude that changes in population sizes for passerine birds are unlikely to be the consequences of climate-driven mortality (or emigration) in spring but could be induced by other demographic parameters, like fecundity.

Keywords: Bayesian approach, capture-recapture, climate anomaly, constant effort sites scheme, passerine, seasons, survival

Procedia PDF Downloads 303
6861 Torque Loss Prediction Test Method of Bolted Joints in Heavy Commercial Vehicles

Authors: Volkan Ayik

Abstract:

Loosening as a result of torque loss in bolted joints is one of the most encountered problems resulting in loss of connection between parts. The main reason for this is the dynamic loads to which the joints are subjected while the vehicle is moving. In particular, vibration-induced loads can loosen the joints in any size and geometry. The aim of this study is to study an improved method due to road-induced vibration in heavy commercial vehicles for estimating the vibration performance of bolted joints of the components connected to the chassis, before conducting prototype level vehicle structural strength tests on a proving ground. The frequency and displacements caused by the road conditions-induced vibration loads have been determined for the parts connected to the chassis, and various experimental design scenarios have been formed by matching specific components and vibration behaviors. In the studies, the performance of the torque, washer, test displacement, and test frequency parameters were observed by maintaining the connection characteristics on the vehicle, and the sensitivity ratios for these variables were calculated. As a result of these experimental design findings, tests performed on a developed device based on Junker’s vibration device and proving ground conditions versus test correlation levels were found.

Keywords: bolted joints, junker’s test, loosening failure, torque loss

Procedia PDF Downloads 124
6860 Analysis of Impact of Flu Vaccination on Acute Respiratory Viral Infections (ARVI) Morbidity among Population in South Kazakhstan Region, 2010-2015

Authors: Karlygash Tulendieva

Abstract:

Presently vaccination is the most effective method of prevention of flu and its complications. The purpose of this study was to analyze the impact of the increase of coverage of the population of South Kazakhstan region with flu vaccination and decrease of the ARVI morbidity. The analysis was performed on the data of flu vaccination of risk groups, including children under one year and pregnant women. Data on ARVI morbidity during 2010-2015 and data on vaccination were taken from the reports of the Epidemiological Surveillance Unit of Department of Consumers’ Rights Protection of South Kazakhstan region. Coverage with flu vaccination of the risk groups was annually increasing and in 2015 it reached 16% (450,000/2,800,682) from the total population. The ARVI morbidity rate in the entire population in 2010 was 2,010.4 per 100,000 of the population and decreased 3.2 times to 609.9 per 100,000 of the population in 2015. Annual growth was observed from 2010 to 2015 of specific weight of the vaccinated main risk groups: healthcare workers by 51% (from 17,331 in 2010 to 33,538 in 2015), children with chronic pulmonary and cardio-vascular diseases, immune deficiency, weak and sickly children above six months by 39% (from 63,122 in 2010 to 158,023 in 2015), adults with chronic co-morbidities by 27% (from 44,271 in 2010 to 162,595 in 2015), persons above 65 by 17% (from 10,276 in 2010 to 57,875 in 2015), and annual coverage of pregnant women on second or third trimester from 34,443 in 2010 to 37,969 in 2015. Starting from 2013 and until 2015 vaccination was performed in the region with coverage of at least 90% of children from 6 months to one year. The ARVI morbidity in this age group decreased 3.3 times from 8,687.8 per 100,000 of the population in 2010 to 2,585.8 per 100,000 of the population in 2015. Vaccination of pregnant women on 2-3 trimester was started in the region in 2012. Annual increase of vaccination coverage of pregnant women from 86.1% (34,443/40,000) in 2012 to 95% (37,969/40,000) in 2015 decreased the morbidity 1.5 times from 4,828.8 per 100,000 of population in 2012 to 3,022.7 per 100,000 of population in 2015. Following the increase of vaccination coverage of the population in South Kazakhstan region, the trend was observed of decrease of ARVI morbidity rates among the population and main risk groups, among pregnant women and children under one year.

Keywords: acute respiratory viral infections, flu, risk groups, vaccination

Procedia PDF Downloads 241
6859 Development of K-Factor for Road Geometric Design: A Case Study of North Coast Road in Java

Authors: Edwin Hidayat, Redi Yulianto, Disi Hanafiah

Abstract:

On the one hand, parameters which are used for determining the number of lane on the new road construction are average annual average daily traffic (AADT) and peak hour factor (K-factor). On the other hand, the value of K-factor listed in the guidelines and manual for road planning in Indonesia is a value of adoption or adaptation from foreign guidelines or manuals. Thus, the value is less suitable for Indonesian condition due to differences in road conditions, vehicle type, and driving behavior. The purpose of this study is to provide an example on how to determine k-factor values at a road segment with particular conditions in north coast road, West Java. The methodology is started with collecting traffic volume data for 24 hours over 365 days using PLATO (Automated Traffic Counter) with the approach of video image processing. Then, the traffic volume data is divided into per hour and analyzed by comparing the peak traffic volume in the 30th hour (or other) with the AADT in the same year. The analysis has resulted that for the 30th peak hour the K-factor is 0.97. This value can be used for planning road geometry or evaluating the road capacity performance for the 4/2D interurban road.

Keywords: road geometry, K-factor, annual average daily traffic, north coast road

Procedia PDF Downloads 161