Search results for: economic policy uncertainty

Authors: Enayatollah Yazdani

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In the post-Cold War era, the world is facing a new emerging global order with the rise of multiple actors in the international arena. China, as a rising global power, has great leverage in internal relations. In particular, during the last two decades, China has rapidly transformed its economy into a global leader in advanced technologies. As a rising power and as one of the two major founding members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), China has tried to use this regional organization, which has the potential to become an important political and security organization of the major states located in the vast Eurasian landmass, for its “go global” strategy. In fact, for Beijing, the SCO represents a new and unique cooperation model, reflecting its vision of a multipolar world order. China has used the SCO umbrella as a multilateral platform to address external threats posed by non-state actors on its vulnerable western border; to gain a strong economic and political foothold in Central Asia without putting the Sino-Russian strategic partnership at risk; and to enhance its energy security through large-scale infrastructure investment in, and trade with, the Central Asian member states. In other words, the SCO is one of the successful outcomes of Chines foreign policy in the post-Cold War era. The expansion of multilateral ties all over the world by dint of pursuing institutional strategies as SCO identifies China as a more constructive power. SCO became a new model of cooperation that was formed on the remains of collapsed Soviet system and predetermined China's geopolitical role in the region. As the fast developing effective regional mechanism, SCO now has more of an external impact on the international system and forms a new type of interaction for promoting China's grand strategy of 'peaceful rise.' This paper aims to answer this major question: How the Chinese government has manipulated the SCO for its foreign policy and global and regional influence? To answer this question, the main discussion is that with regard to the SCO capabilities and politico-economic potential, this organization has been used by China as a platform to expand influence beyond its borders.

Keywords: China, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Central Asia, global policy, foreign policy

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Authors: Robert Gilliland

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In any organization, a potential issue can arise and become a problem when management deviates from the standard norms set in the system development process of an IT system and the policies that pertain to it. In these instances, cybersecurity is a big challenge that organizations have to face in safeguarding the data that they generate and use. When a new idea, task, or process begins, specific standards must be followed, along with the policies and procedures that ensure the safeguard of data in the information system within the company. A good IT Strategy and Policy should have individuals who are in charge of overseeing the design, development, implementation, and auditing of these policies. Auditors are people who check to make sure that the issue conforms with the plan that is in place. Management has the ability through the role of the manager to potentially abuse power is given and to direct specific ideas, events, projects, and outcomes that are contrary to the vision or goals of the company.

Keywords: strategic policy, policy management, new policy, strategic planning

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Authors: Heesu Kim

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This paper determines the varieties of state roles played in East Asia’s telecommunication market, regarding broadband industry. Technological capacity and the relationship between state and market affect the varieties of state role. In explaining the state’s engagement in the market, technology has always been considered as a necessary and sufficient condition. However technology variable has been useful in only explaining the extent of state’s involvement. This paper contributes by bringing in the political-economic factor, which is the relationship between state and market. This factor aids in distinguishing the varieties of state role played in emerging industries. Interaction between these two variables distinguishes 4 types of state roles played in the broadband industry. These roles are distinguished and characterized by the intensity of state’s intervention and the existence of technological capacity. This paper classifies four types of state role through the case of Singapore, China, Taiwan and Korea’s broadband industrial policy.

Keywords: East Asia, entrpreneurial state, industrial policy, regulatory state, technological capacity

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Authors: Nooshin Salari, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, we propose a condition-based maintenance policy for multi-unit systems considering the existence of economic dependency among units. We consider a system composed of N identical units, where each unit deteriorates independently. Deterioration process of each unit is modeled as a three-state continuous time homogeneous Markov chain with two working states and a failure state. The average production rate of units varies in different working states and demand rate of the system is constant. Units are inspected at equidistant time epochs, and decision regarding performing maintenance is determined by the number of units in the failure state. If the total number of units in the failure state exceeds a critical level, maintenance is initiated, where units in failed state are replaced correctively and deteriorated state units are maintained preventively. Our objective is to determine the optimal number of failed units to initiate maintenance minimizing the long run expected average cost per unit time. The problem is formulated and solved in the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework. A numerical example is developed to demonstrate the proposed policy and the comparison with the corrective maintenance policy is presented.

Keywords: reliability, maintenance optimization, semi-Markov decision process, production

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Authors: Bundit Pungnirund

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The objectives of this research were to study the factors affecting life quality of residents who lived in the low-cost housing in Thailand. This study employed by quantitative research and the questionnaire was used to collect the data from 400 sampled of the residents in low-cost housing projects in Thailand. The descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis were used to analyze data. The research results revealed that economic status of residents, government’s policy on dwelling places, leadership of community leaders, environmental condition of the community, and the quality of life were rated at the good level, while the participation of residents, and the knowledge and understanding of community members were rated at the high level. Furthermore, the environmental condition, the government’s policy on dwelling places, knowledge and understanding of residents, leadership of community leaders, economic status of the residents, and participation of community members had significantly affected the quality of life of residents in the low-cost housing.

Keywords: quality of life, community leadership, community participation, low-cost housing

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Authors: Haonan Hu, Shuge Lei, Dasheng Sun, Huabin Zhang, Kehong Yuan, Jian Dai, Jijun Tang

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This paper focuses on the classification task of breast ultrasound images and conducts research on the reliability measurement of classification results. A dual-channel evaluation framework was developed based on the proposed inference reliability and predictive reliability scores. For the inference reliability evaluation, human-aligned and doctor-agreed inference rationals based on the improved feature attribution algorithm SP-RISA are gracefully applied. Uncertainty quantification is used to evaluate the predictive reliability via the test time enhancement. The effectiveness of this reliability evaluation framework has been verified on the breast ultrasound clinical dataset YBUS, and its robustness is verified on the public dataset BUSI. The expected calibration errors on both datasets are significantly lower than traditional evaluation methods, which proves the effectiveness of the proposed reliability measurement.

Keywords: medical imaging, ultrasound imaging, XAI, uncertainty measurement, trustworthy AI

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Authors: Mahmoud Hassan

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Understanding the impact of market- and non-market-based environmental policy instruments on renewable energy consumption (REC) is crucial for the design and choice of policy packages. This study aims to empirically investigate the effect of environmental policy stringency index (EPS) and its components on REC in 27 OECD countries over the period from 1990 to 2015, and then use the results to identify what the appropriate environmental policy mix should look like. By relying on the two-step system GMM estimator, we provide evidence that increasing environmental policy stringency as a whole promotes renewable energy consumption in these 27 developed economies. Moreover, policymakers are able, through the market- and non-market-based environmental policy instruments, to increase the use of renewable energy. However, not all of these instruments are effective for achieving this goal. The results indicate that R&D subsidies and trading schemes have a positive and significant impact on REC, while taxes, feed-in tariff and emission standards have not a significant effect. Furthermore, R&D subsidies are more effective than trading schemes for stimulating the use of clean energy. These findings proved to be robust across the three alternative panel techniques used.

Keywords: environmental policy stringency, renewable energy consumption, two-step system-GMM estimation, linear dynamic panel data model

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Authors: Aliyu Aminu Baba

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Ethnic entrepreneurship is defined as a set of connections and regular patterns of interaction among people sharing common national background or migration experience. The disadvantage faced by ethnic minority on paid labour induced them to become self-employed. Also, enclaves motivates trading, creativity, innovation are all to provide specific service or products to certain people. These ethnic minorities are African –Caribbean, Indians, Pakistanis, Banghaladashi and Chinese. For policy development ethnic diversity was among the problem of developing policy in United Kingdom. The study finds that there is a danger in treating all ethnic minority businesses as homogeneous rather than heterogeneous. The diversity is due to religious beliefs, culture and race. This indicates that there is a wide range have shortfall in addressing the peculiarities of ethnic minority businesses in policy formulation. Also, there are differences between ethnic minorities in accessing finance. It is recommended that diversity and peculiarities between ethnic minorities should be considered in policy formulation.

Keywords: ethnic entrepreneurship, finance, policy implication, diversity

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Authors: Babatunde Osabiya

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Cybersecurity has emerged as a pressing policy problem in recent years, affecting individuals, businesses, and governments worldwide. This research paper aims to critically review the literature on cybersecurity policy and apply policy theory to propose a policy approach that balances the freedom to access and use technology with the human rights risks and threats posed by cyber. Drawing on various credible sources, the paper examines the scale and seriousness of cyber threats, highlighting the growing threat posed by cybercriminals, hackers, and nation-states. The paper also identifies the key challenges facing policymakers, including the need for more significant investment in cybersecurity research and development and the importance of balancing the benefits of technological innovation with the risks to privacy, security, and human rights. To address these challenges, the paper proposes a policy approach emphasizing investing in cybersecurity research and development to maintain a technological edge over potential adversaries. This approach also highlights the need for greater collaboration between government, industry, and civil society to develop effective cybersecurity policies and practices that protect the rights and freedoms of people while mitigating the risks posed by cyber threats. This paper will contribute to the growing body of literature on cybersecurity policy and offers a policy framework for addressing this critical policy challenge.

Keywords: security risk, legal framework, cyber security and policy, national security

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Authors: Juanita, B. Kombaitan, Iwan Pratoyo Kusumantoro

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The traditional mode is a non-motorized vehicle powered by human or animal power. The objective of the study was to define the strategy of using traditional modes by the framework of sustainable urban transport in support of urban tourism activities. The study of the traditional mode does not include a modified mode using the engine power as motor tricycles are often called ‘bentor ‘in Indonesia. The use of non-motorized traditional mode in Indonesia has begun to shift, and its use began to be eliminated by the change of propulsion using the machine. In an effort to push back the use of traditional mode one of them with tourism activities. Strategies for the use of traditional modes within the framework of sustainable urban transport are seen from three dimensions: social, economic and environmental. The social dimension related to accessibility and livability, an economic dimension related to traditional modes can promote products and tourist attractions, while the environmental dimension related to the needs of the users/groups with respect to safety, comfort. The traditional mode is rarely noticed by the policy makers, and public opinion in its use needs attention. The involvement of policy-making between stakeholders and the community is needed in the development of sustainable traditional mode strategies in support of urban tourism activities.

Keywords: traditional mode, sustainable, urban, transportation

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Authors: Malki Fatima Zahra Nadia, Kellal Chaimaa, Brahimi Houria

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The world has undergone a big dramatic transformations as a result of the liberalization of the economy. Which lead to intensity of competition between economic institutions under the slogan “ Survival of the fittest”.in the line with these changes, it is imperative for Organizations to adopt the philosophy of applying ICT in the era of globalization in order to survive and sustain in the local and international markets.and even the Algerian economic institutions are concerned in what witnessed by the international institutions,especially after Algeria adopted the policy of trade openness.And from this point, it was the start of the study, that aims at identifying the role of ICT in achieving competitive advantage in the economic institutions according to an analytical study of Mobilis Telecom in Algeria city, and then the analysis of the results by SPSS edition 24.To sum up, i have come to the conclusion that ICT has effectively contributed to the achievement of competitive advantage, and that the value of organizations today lies in the extent to which they use ICT’s which make it gain speed, efficiency, and the quality of its operations especially in the competitive competition.

Keywords: ICT, company, competitive advantage, competitive strategie

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Authors: Shantol McIntosh

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Due to environmental and underlying health disparities, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused an added set of economic implications worldwide. Black and Hispanic individuals are more susceptible to contract COVID-19, and if they do, they are more likely to have a severe case that necessitates hospitalization or results in death (Altarum et al., 2020). The literature shows that disparities in health and health treatment are nothing new as they have been recorded for decades and indicate systemic and structural imbalances rooted in racism and discrimination. The purpose of this study is to determine the frequency with which these populations have access to healthcare and treatment. The study will also highlight the key drivers of health disparities. Findings and implications for research and policy will be discussed.

Keywords: COVID-19, racial and ethnic disparities, discrimination, policy

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Authors: Gulnaz Erkomaishvili

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The article analyzes the modern level of industrial production in Georgia, shows the export-import of industrial products and evaluates the results of the activities of institutions implementing industrial policy. The research showed us that the level of development of industry in the country and its export potential are quite low. The article concludes that in the modern phase of industrial development, the country should choose a model focused on technological development and maximum growth of export potential. Objectives. The aim of the research is to develop an economic policy that promotes the development of industry and to look for ways to implement it effectively. Methodologies This paper uses general and specific methods, in particular, analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, scientific abstraction, comparative and statistical methods, as well as experts’ evaluation. In-depth interviews with experts were conducted to determine quantitative and qualitative indicators; Publications of the National Statistics Office of Georgia are used to determine the regularity between analytical and statistical estimations. Also, theoretical and applied research of international organizations and scientist-economists are used. Contributions Based on the identified challenges in the area of industry, recommendations for the implementation of an active industrial policy in short and long term periods were developed. In particular: the government's priority orientation of industrial development; paying special attention to the processing industry sectors that Georgia has the potential to produce; supporting the development of scientific fields; Determination of certain benefits for those investors who invest money in industrial production; State partnership with the private sector, manifested in the fight against bureaucracy, corruption and crime, creating favorable business conditions for entrepreneurs; Coordination between education - science - production should be implemented in the country. Much attention should be paid to basic scientific research, which does not require purely commercial returns in the short term, science should become a real productive force; Special importance should be given to the creation of an environment that will support the expansion of export-oriented production; Overcoming barriers to entry into export markets.

Keywords: industry, sectoral structure of industry, exsport-import of industrial products, industrial policy

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Authors: Yahaya Abdullahi Adadu, Canice Erunke Esidene

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The problems of socio-economic development have been a major challenge bedeviling the Nigerian post-colonial state since her political independence from Britain in October I,1960. Critics have argued that the dilemma of Nigeria’s economic survival started since the early 1970s when the agricultural sector which supposedly was the economic mainstay has been literally substituted with the gains of the oil petro-dollars coming from the foreign exchange earnings. Agriculture therefore, which used to be a major player in terms of human and national upliftment in Nigeria have been given a back seat while oil and gas has taken over the front burner in virtually every aspect of Nigeria’s national life. This study is therefore an exposition of the efforts of the Nasarawa state government in reversing the dangerous trend in which the over reliance on oil wealth has caused to persons, individuals and groups in terms of the prevailing levels of poverty and other attendant vices therein. The study focuses on the management policies of the various regimes in the state since its inception in 1996, with particular reference to the regime types-military and civilian alike in propelling the needed policy change, which could transform the economy in line with international best practices. Particular emphasis will be paid to the BADA-KOSHI agricultural scheme whose interest was to recover the lost glory of rural agriculture through series of roots and tuber expansion, and particularly such crops as yam minissetts, cassava, sweet potatoes and coco-yam, respectively. The paper covers the period between 1996 -2011, a period considered to be critical in the agricultural revolution of the state. The study adopts a theoretical approach via secondary methods of analysis for the efficient explanations of the burning issues under consideration. The paper sums up with policy recommendations and conclusion.

Keywords: poverty, agriculture, Badakoshi, rural policy management

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Authors: Markéta Slováková

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The largest share of policy and money within the European Union goes to agriculture. The Union’s Common Agricultural Policy has undergone several transformations in the last five decades, with the main change taking place in the 1990's. This change influenced agriculture in the Czech Republic, inasmuch as the fledgling republic was preparing to join the European Union and adopt its policies. In the 1990s, Czech agriculture passed from a centrally planned economy to a market economy and subsequently adopted the terms of the Common Agricultural Policy. The Czech Republic is also characterized by a significant landscape sphere diversification. Agricultural entrepreneurs in the Czech Republic are still not used the possibility of grants from the European Union. They focus rather on national or regional subsidy titles. Only half of all agricultural entrepreneurs in the Czech Republic use European subsidies. This article focuses on the introduction of the Common Agricultural Policy to the Czech Republic and its subsequent influence on Czech agriculture. It is demonstrated on the implementation rate of the CAP in the EU Member States and the closer focus is on the Czech integration.

Keywords: common agricultural policy, agriculture, European Union, transformation

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Authors: Raman Kumar Singh

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Urbanization and economic growth are considered to be the most striking features of the past century. There is currently a radical demographic shift in progress worldwide, wherein people are moving from rural to urban areas at an increasing rate. The UN-Habitat report 2005 indicates that in 2025, 61 per cent of the 5 billion world population will reside in the urban areas with about 85 per cent of the development process taking place in the urban hinterlands widely referred to as ‘peri-urban’, ‘suburbs’, ‘urban fringe’, ‘city edge’, ‘metropolitan shadow’, or ‘urban sprawl’. In this context the study is broadly concerned with understanding the development of the industrial hub in the Gurgaon and its impact on the immediate neighbourhood. However studies have revealed that with the increase of industrial development the growth pattern changes rapidly, not only the growth of the urban area but the overall economy shifts from more agrarian to non-agrarian, with the change in the occupational pattern of the people. The process is mainly known as tertiarization, where a number of tertiary activities increase in comparison to primary or secondary. The change in the occupational pattern creates a pull factor on its immediate neighbourhood, which triggers the in- migrations from the rural areas as people come in the core urban area in search of the better job opportunities and increased standards of living. But this gives way to the unplanned growth of the urban fringe and the villages which tend to accommodate the migrants and in turn the pressure on the socio-economic infrastructure increases. Therefore, it becomes increasing necessary for the government institution and policy level intervention to provide an overall socio-economic growth along with rapid industrial growth.

Keywords: policy intervention, urban morphology, urban industrial hub, livelihood transformation

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Authors: Khalid Yousuf Ahmed

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At the beginning of growth period, East Asian countries achieved impressive economic growth for the decades. They transformed from agricultural economy toward industrialization and contributed to dynamic structural transformation. The achievements were driven by government-led development policies that implemented effective innovation policy to boost technological capability of local firms. Recently, most Sub-Saharan African have been showing sustainable growth. Exceptionally, Ethiopia has been recording double-digit growth for a decade. Hence, Ethiopia has claimed to follow the footstep of East Asia development model. The study is going to examine whether Ethiopia can replicate innovation and economic growth model of East Asia by using Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and China as a case to illustrate their model of growth. This research will be based on empirical data gathering and extended theory of national innovation system and economic growth theory. Moreover, the methodology is based on Knowledge Assessment Methodology (KAM) and also employing cross-countries regression analysis. The results explained that there is a significant relationship between innovation indicators and economic growth in East Asian countries while the relationship is non-existing for Ethiopia except implementing similar policies and achieving similar growth trend. Therefore, Ethiopia needs to introduce inclusive policies that give priority to improving human capital and invest on the knowledge-based economy to replicate East Asian Model.

Keywords: economic growth, FDI, endogenous growth theory, East Asia model

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Authors: Muhammad Ajmair

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This empirical study followed structural vector auto regression (SVAR) approach proposed by the so-called AB-model of Amisano and Giannini (1997) to check the impact of relevant macroeconomic determinants on economic growth in Pakistan. Before that auto regressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound testing technique and time varying parametric approach along with general to specific approach was employed to find out relevant significant determinants of economic growth. To our best knowledge, no author made such a study that employed auto regressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound testing and time varying parametric approach with general to specific approach in empirical literature, but current study will bridge this gap. Annual data was taken from World Development Indicators (2014) during period 1976-2014. The widely-used Schwarz information criterion and Akaike information criterion were considered for the lag length in each estimated equation. Main findings of the study are that remittances received, gross national expenditures and inflation are found to be the best relevant positive and significant determinants of economic growth. Based on these empirical findings, we conclude that government should focus on overall economic growth augmenting factors while formulating any policy relevant to the concerned sector.

Keywords: economic growth, gross national expenditures, inflation, remittances

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Authors: Sehrish Qayyum

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Active military power contention is shifting to economic and cyberwar to retain hegemony. Attuned Pestle analysis confirms that structural stress of hegemon’s power loss drives a containment approach towards caging actions. Ongoing diplomatic, asymmetric, proxy and direct wars are increasing stress hegemon’s power retention due to tangled military and economic alliances. It creates the condition of catalepsy with defective reflexive control which affects the core warfare operations. When one’s own power is doubted it gives power to one’s own doubt to ruin all planning either done with superlative cost-benefit analysis. Strategically calculated estimation of Hegemon’s power game since the early WWI to WWII, WWII-to Cold War and then to the current era in three chronological periods exposits that Thucydides’s trap became the reason for war broke out. Thirst for power is the demise of imagination and cooperation for better sense to prevail instead it drives ashes to dust. Pestle analysis is a wide array of evaluation from political and economic to legal dimensions of the state matters. It helps to develop the Pacification and Security Policy Plan (PSPP) to avoid hegemon’s structural stress of power loss in fact, in turn, creates an alliance with maximum amicable outputs. PSPP may serve to regulate and pause the hurricane of power clashes. PSPP along with a strategic work plan is based on Pestle analysis to deal with any conceivable war condition and approach for saving international peace. Getting tangled into self-imposed epistemic dilemmas results in regret that becomes the only option of performance. It is a generic application of probability tests to find the best possible options and conditions to develop PSPP for any adversity possible so far. Innovation in expertise begets innovation in planning and action-plan to serve as a rheostat approach to deal with any plausible power clash.

Keywords: alliance, hegemon, pestle analysis, pacification and security policy plan, security

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Authors: Leila Jafari, Viliam Makis, G. B. Akram Khaleghei

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In this paper, we present a maintenance model of a two-unit series system with economic dependence. Unit#1, which is considered to be more expensive and more important, is subject to condition monitoring (CM) at equidistant, discrete time epochs and unit#2, which is not subject to CM, has a general lifetime distribution. The multivariate observation vectors obtained through condition monitoring carry partial information about the hidden state of unit#1, which can be in a healthy or a warning state while operating. Only the failure state is assumed to be observable for both units. The objective is to find an optimal opportunistic maintenance policy minimizing the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The problem is formulated and solved in the partially observable semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm for finding the optimal policy and the minimum average cost is developed and illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: condition-based maintenance, semi-Markov decision process, multivariate Bayesian control chart, partially observable system, two-unit system

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Authors: Sandeep Kaur, Jenny Vuong, Marcel Julliard, Sean O'Donoghue

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Time-series data are useful for modelling as they can enable model-evaluation. However, when reconstructing models from phosphoproteomic data, often non-exact methods are utilised, as the knowledge regarding the network structure, such as, which kinases and phosphatases lead to the observed phosphorylation state, is incomplete. Thus, such reactions are often hypothesised, which gives rise to uncertainty. Here, we propose a framework, implemented via a web-based tool (as an extension to Minardo), which given time-series phosphoproteomic datasets, can generate κ models. The incompleteness and uncertainty in the generated model and reactions are clearly presented to the user via the visual method. Furthermore, we demonstrate, via a toy EGF signalling model, the use of algorithmic verification to verify κ models. Manually formulated requirements were evaluated with regards to the model, leading to the highlighting of the nodes causing unsatisfiability (i.e. error causing nodes). We aim to integrate such methods into our web-based tool and demonstrate how the identified erroneous nodes can be presented to the user via the visual method. Thus, in this research we present a framework, to enable a user to explore phosphorylation proteomic time-series data in the context of models. The observer can visualise which reactions in the model are highly uncertain, and which nodes cause incorrect simulation outputs. A tool such as this enables an end-user to determine the empirical analysis to perform, to reduce uncertainty in the presented model - thus enabling a better understanding of the underlying system.

Keywords: κ-models, model verification, time-series phosphoproteomic datasets, uncertainty and error visualisation

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Authors: Thi Phuong Lan Nguyen

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Vietnamese English Language Teacher Education (ELTE) has been changing a lot in response to the rapidly evolving socio-economic context requirements. The Vietnamese government assigns the Ministry of Education and Training (MOET) primary tasks to have policy changes to prepare for ELTE development in the globalization and socialization process. Many educational policies have been made to develop ELTE, however, they seem not to address the new global or social demands. The issue is that there are still significant disparities between the national policy and the institutional implementation. This study is to investigate the alignment between ELTE institutional curriculum, pedagogies, and MOET standards. This study used a mixed-method with the data sources from policy documents, a survey, and 33 interviews conducted with the lecturers and administrators from eleven Vietnamese ELTE institutions. The data have been analysed to understand the gap between policy and practice. The initial findings are (i) a low alignment of curriculum and language proficiency standards and (ii) a moderate alignment between curriculum and future-career skills standards. Many pedagogical challenges have been found. In order to address these gaps, it is necessary for the curriculum to be standards-based designed. It is also vital for professional development in order to improve the quality teaching. The study offers multiple perspectives on a complex issue. The study is meaningful not only to educational governance, but also to teaching practitioners, English language researchers, and English language learners. The significance lies in its relevance to English teaching careers across all parts of Vietnam, it yet remains relevant to ELTE in other countries teaching English as a foreign language.

Keywords: alignment, curriculum, educational policy, English language teaching, pedagogy, standards

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Authors: Christoph Ostermair

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We deal with the effect of correlation between prospects on human decision making under uncertainty as proposed by the comparatively new and promising model of “salience theory of choice under risk”. In this regard, we show that the theory entails the prediction that the inconsistency of choices, known as the Allais paradox, should not be an issue in the context of “real-life decision making”, which typically corresponds to situations of subjective uncertainty. The Allais paradox, probably the best-known anomaly regarding expected utility theory, would then essentially have no practical relevance. If, however, empiricism contradicts this prediction, salience theory might suffer a serious setback. Explanations of the model for variable human choice behavior are mostly the result of a particular mechanism that does not come to play under perfect correlation. Hence, if it turns out that correlation between prospects – as typically found in real-world applications – does not influence human decision making in the expected way, this might to a large extent cost the theory its explanatory power. The empirical literature regarding the Allais paradox under subjective uncertainty is so far rather moderate. Beyond that, the results are hard to maintain as an argument, as the presentation formats commonly employed, supposably have generated so-called event-splitting effects, thereby distorting subjects’ choice behavior. In our own incentivized experimental study, we control for such effects by means of two different choice settings. We find significant event-splitting effects in both settings, thereby supporting the suspicion that the so far existing empirical results related to Allais paradoxes under subjective uncertainty may not be able to answer the question at hand. Nevertheless, we find that the basic tendency behind the Allais paradox, which is a particular switch of the preference relation due to a modified common consequence, shared by two prospects, is still existent both under an event-splitting and a coalesced presentation format. Yet, the modal choice pattern is in line with the prediction of salience theory. As a consequence, the effect of correlation, as proposed by the model, might - if anything - only weaken the systematic choice pattern behind the Allais paradox.

Keywords: Allais paradox, common consequence effect, models of decision making under risk and uncertainty, salience theory

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Authors: Tanusha Raniga, Michael Boecker, Maud Mthembu

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This paper considers the formal employment sector, human capacity development and economic capital of single-mother households’ as they strive to sustain livelihoods. This paper advances empirical data in the field of economic and social development policy. The correlation between educational level, human capacity development and economic self-reliance of single-mother households is considered. This paper presents empirical evidence obtained from qualitative in-depth interviews conducted with twenty-five single mothers who were working in the formal work sector in Hagen, Germany and two provinces, namely KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng in South Africa. This is an underexplored research area as most of the international literature focuses on pathology and victimhood related to single-mother households. Instead, this paper presents the biographic profiles and discusses two key themes that emerged from the data analysis namely; formal and informal streams of income enhanced human capital development through access to further education and training opportunities. The women perceived these themes as facilitating factors which helped them sustain their households. The paper presents some suggestions for policymakers and social work practitioners to consider to improve support systems and avoid economic exclusion of single mothers who work within the first economy.

Keywords: single mothers, formal work sector, economic capital, human capital

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Authors: Toyin Cotties Adetiba

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Notably, China is a major global economy, thus increasing debate parlance of foreign policy that sees China as a superpower. China’s investment in Africa is visibly seen in African markets with substantial involvement of its multinationals in key commercial sectors such as infrastructure, telecoms, and agriculture. Not minding its positive economic impact on Africa, the debate around the China-African relationship has continued to be filled with some sort of inconsistency and ambiguity. This work engaged a qualitative research method while answering the question of whether the socioeconomic marriage of convenience between African states and China, is a means and the end to the Chinese control of African economy? Can China-Africa’s relationship engender Africa’s economic development or is it a threat to Africa’s development? The paper argued that through the secret dealings of the Chinese companies with African leaders, couched as palace diplomacy, the Chinese have cornered African economy. Concluding that there is need for the reform of the approaches to curtailing socio-economic and political corruption in Africa in the form of applications of ideas molded and refined to transparency in dealing with the Chinese, while economic institutions in African is empowered to effectively fight corruption.

Keywords: Africans, corruption, diplomacy, companies, development

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Authors: Widhi Hanantyo Suryadinata

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Efforts undertaken by Indonesia and China to shift the strategies and security of renewable energy on a global stage involve approaches through policy construction related to rare minerals processing or value-adding in Indonesia and manufacturing policies through the New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) policy in China. Both policies encompass several practical regulations and policies that can be utilized for the implementation of Indonesia and China's grand efforts and ideas. Policy development in Indonesia and China can be analyzed using a comparative analysis method, as well as employing a pyramid illustration to identify policy construction phases based on the real conditions of the domestic market and implemented policies. This approach also helps to identify the potential integration of policies needed to enhance the policy development phase of a country within the pyramid. It also emphasizes the significance of integration policy to redefine renewable energy strategy and security on the global stage.

Keywords: global renewable energy security, global energy security, policy development, comparative analysis, shifting of global energy security, Indonesia, China

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Authors: Munezero Vanessa

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A country is considered developed when its socio-economic and development situation is stable. Foreign direct investment is thus considered to be one of the solutions to this stability especially when it is used in development sectors. The present study was meant to understand whether the foreign direct investment stimulates economic growth performance in Rwanda. The foreign direct investments and economic growth (GDP) has been the subject of much debate among economic development researchers, aid donors as well as recipients in general and Rwanda in particular. In spite of this, there are only few empirical studies that investigate the contributions of foreign direct investments to economic growth in Rwanda. This study explores the relationship between foreign direct investments and economic growth in Rwanda using data that spans from 2000 to 2019 and establishing through causal study if changes in one variable cause changes in the other. The results show that foreign direct investments significantly contribute to the current level of economic growth. The findings imply that Rwanda could enhance its economic growth by effectively and strategically strengthening foreign direct investment plans.

Keywords: foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth, GDP gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, exchange rate

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Authors: Baljit Soroya

Abstract:

Transnational communities are as a consequence of greater mobility of people, globalization and digitization have had a major impact on international relations and diasporas in the context of external conflicts. To a significant extent conflicts are becoming deterritorialised and informed by both internal (state politics) and external (foreign policy) players such as in Iraq and Syria leading to forced migration of unprecedented levels within the last two decades. The situation of forced migrants has, it is suggested, worsened as a consequence of the neo-liberal policies and requirements of organizations such as the European Bank. A case example of this being that of Greece, and the exacerbation of insecurity for Greek nationals and the demonization of refugees seeking sanctuary. This has been as a consequence, in part, of the neoliberal dogma of the European Bank. The article analyses the complex intersection of the real and perceived threats of international terrorism and the manner in which UK migration policy and Practice is unfolding. The policy and practice developments are explored in the context of the shift in politics in both the UK and wider Europe to the far right and the drift of main stream political parties to the right. In many cases, the mainstream political groupings, have co-opted the fears as presented by far right organization for political their own political gains, such as in the UK and France In its analysis it will be argued that, whilst international terrorism is an issue of concern, however in the context of the UK it is not of the same scale as the effects of climate change or indeed domestic violence. Given that, the question has to be asked why the threat of international terrorism is having such an impact on UK migration policy and practice and, specifically refugees. Furthermore, it is argued that this policy and practice are being formulated within a narrative that portrays migrants as the problem both in relation to terrorism and the disenfranchisement of ‘ordinary white communities’. The intersectionality of social, economic inequalities, fear of international terrorism, increase in conflicts and the political climate have contributed to a lack of trust of political establishments that have in turn sought to impress the public with their anti-immigrant rhetoric and policy agendas. The article ends by suggesting that whilst politics and political affiliations have become fractured there are nevertheless spaces for collective action, particularly in relation to issues of refugees.

Keywords: international terrorism, migration policy, conflict, media, community, politics

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Authors: Abidemi C. Adegboye, Nosakhare Ikponmwosa, Rogers A. Akinsokeji

Abstract:

For many resource-rich developing countries, fiscal policy has become a key tool used for short-run fiscal management since it is considered as playing a critical role in injecting part of resource rents into the economies. However, given its instability, reliance on revenue from commodity exports renders fiscal management, budgetary planning and the efficient use of public resources difficult. In this study, the linkage between commodity prices and fiscal operations among a sample of commodity-exporting countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is investigated. The main question is whether commodity price fluctuations affects the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a macroeconomic stabilization tool in these countries. Fiscal management effectiveness is considered as the ability of fiscal policy to react countercyclically to output gaps in the economy. Fiscal policy is measured as the ratio of fiscal deficit to GDP and the ratio of government spending to GDP, output gap is measured as a Hodrick-Prescott filter of output growth for each country, while commodity prices are associated with each country based on its main export commodity. Given the dynamic nature of fiscal policy effects on the economy overtime, a dynamic framework is devised for the empirical analysis. The panel cointegration and error correction methodology is used to explain the relationships. In particular, the study employs the panel ECM technique to trace short-term effects of commodity prices on fiscal management and also uses the fully modified OLS (FMOLS) technique to determine the long run relationships. These procedures provide sufficient estimation of the dynamic effects of commodity prices on fiscal policy. Data used cover the period 1992 to 2016 for 11 SSA countries. The study finds that the elasticity of the fiscal policy measures with respect to the output gap is significant and positive, suggesting that fiscal policy is actually procyclical among the countries in the sample. This implies that fiscal management for these countries follows the trend of economic performance. Moreover, it is found that fiscal policy has not performed well in delivering macroeconomic stabilization for these countries. The difficulty in applying fiscal stabilization measures is attributable to the unstable revenue inflows due to the highly volatile nature of commodity prices in the international market. For commodity-exporting countries in SSA to improve fiscal management, therefore, fiscal planning should be largely decoupled from commodity revenues, domestic revenue bases must be improved, and longer period perspectives in fiscal policy management are the critical suggestions in this study.

Keywords: commodity prices, ECM, fiscal policy, fiscal procyclicality, fully modified OLS, sub-saharan africa

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Authors: Philipp Galkin

Abstract:

Government policy is a critical factor in the understanding of energy markets. Regardless, it is rarely approached systematically from a research perspective. Gaining a precise understanding of what policies exist, their intended outcomes, geographical extent, duration, evolution, etc. would enable the research community to answer a variety of questions that, for now, are either oversimplified or ignored. Policy, on its surface, also seems a rather unstructured and qualitative undertaking. There may be quantitative components, but incorporating the concept of policy analysis into quantitative analysis remains a challenge. The KAPSARC Energy Policy Database (KEPD) is intended to address these two energy policy research limitations. Our approach is to represent policies within a quantitative library of the specific policy measures contained within a set of legal documents. Each of these measures is recorded into the database as a single entry characterized by a set of qualitative and quantitative attributes. Initially, we have focused on the major laws at the national level that regulate coal in China. However, KAPSARC is engaged in various efforts to apply this methodology to other energy policy domains. To ensure scalability and sustainability of our project, we are exploring semantic processing using automated computer algorithms. Automated coding can provide a more convenient input data for human coders and serve as a quality control option. Our initial findings suggest that the methodology utilized in KEPD could be applied to any set of energy policies. It also provides a convenient tool to facilitate understanding in the energy policy realm enabling the researcher to quickly identify, summarize, and digest policy documents and specific policy measures. The KEPD captures a wide range of information about each individual policy contained within a single policy document. This enables a variety of analyses, such as structural comparison of policy documents, tracing policy evolution, stakeholder analysis, and exploring interdependencies of policies and their attributes with exogenous datasets using statistical tools. The usability and broad range of research implications suggest a need for the continued expansion of the KEPD to encompass a larger scope of policy documents across geographies and energy sectors.

Keywords: China, energy policy, policy analysis, policy database

Procedia PDF Downloads 317