Search results for: autoregressive integrate moving average model selection

Authors: T. Godwin

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A call-taxi system is a type of taxi service where a taxi could be requested through a phone call or mobile app. A schematic functioning of a call-taxi system is modeled using Petri net, which provides the necessary conditions for a taxi to be assigned by a dispatcher to pick a customer as well as the conditions for the taxi to be released by the customer. A Petri net is a graphical modeling tool used to understand sequences, concurrences, and confluences of activities in the working of discrete event systems. It uses tokens on a directed bipartite multi-graph to simulate the activities of a system. The Petri net model is translated into a simulation model and a call-taxi system is simulated. The simulation model helps in evaluating the operation of a call-taxi system based on the fleet size as well as the operating policies for call-taxi assignment and empty call-taxi repositioning. The developed Petri net based simulation model can be used to decide the fleet size as well as the call-taxi assignment policies for a call-taxi system.

Keywords: call-taxi, discrete event system, petri net, simulation modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 410

Authors: Hongbin Yang, Mingxue Liao, Changwen Zheng, Mengyao Kong, Chaohui Liu

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Microfacet-based reflection models are widely used to model light reflections for rough surfaces. Microfacet models have become the standard surface material building block for describing specular components with varying roughness; and yet, while they possess many desirable properties as well as produce convincing results, their design ignores important sources of scattering, which can cause a significant loss of energy. Specifically, they only simulate the single scattering on the microfacets and ignore the subsequent interactions. As the roughness increases, the interaction will become more and more important. So a multiple-scattering microfacet model based on specular V-cavity is presented for this important open problem. However, it spends much unnecessary rendering time because of setting the same number of scatterings for different roughness surfaces. In this paper, we design a geometric attenuation term G to compute the BRDF (Bidirectional reflection distribution function) of multiple scattering of rough surfaces. Moreover, we consider determining the number of scattering by deterministic heuristics for different roughness surfaces. As a result, our model produces a similar appearance of the objects with the state of the art model with significantly improved rendering efficiency. Finally, we derive a multiple scattering BRDF based on the original microfacet framework.

Keywords: bidirectional reflection distribution function, BRDF, geometric attenuation term, multiple scattering, V-cavity model

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Authors: Tsvetomira Braynova, Miglena Simonska

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The article presents the results of research on phonological processes in three and four-year-old children. For the purpose of the study, an author's test was developed and conducted among 120 children. The study included three areas of research - at the level of words (96 words), at the level of sentence repetition (10 sentences) and at the level of generating own speech from a picture (15 pictures). The test also gives us additional information about the articulation errors of the assessed children. The main purpose of the icing is to analyze all phonological processes that occur at this age in Bulgarian children and to identify which are typical and atypical for this age. The results show that the most common phonology errors that children make are: sound substitution, an elision of sound, metathesis of sound, elision of a syllable, and elision of consonants clustered in a syllable. All examined children were identified with the articulatory disorder from type bilabial lambdacism. Measuring the correlation between the average length of repeated speech and the average length of generated speech, the analysis proves that the more words a child can repeat in part “repeated speech,” the more words they can be expected to generate in part “generating sentence.” The results of this study show that the task of naming a word provides sufficient and representative information to assess the child's phonology.

Keywords: assessment, phonology, articulation, speech-language development

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Authors: Ilknur Kahriman, Hacer Kobya Bulut, Birsel C. Demirbag

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Introduction and Aim: One of the most challenging aspects of being parents of a child diagnosed with cancer is to balance their normal family life with the child's health needs and treatment requirements. Cancer covers an important part of family life and gets ahead of other matters. Families mostly feel that everything has changed in their lives with the cancer diagnosis and are obliged to make a number of adjustments in their lives. Their normal family life suddenly begins to include treatments, hospital appointments and hospitalizations. This study is a descriptive research conducted to determine the changes in the lives of families who had a child with cancer. Methods: This study was carried out with 65 families having children diagnosed with cancer in 0-17 age group at outpatient pediatric oncology clinic and polyclinic of a university hospital in Trabzon. Data were collected through survey method from August to November, 2015. In the analysis of the data, numbers, percentage and chi-square test were used. Findings: It was found out that the average age of mothers was 35.33 years, most of them were primary school graduates (44.6%) and housewives (89.2%) and the average age of fathers was 39.30 years, most of them were high school graduates (29.2%) and self-employed (43.8% ). The majority of their children were boys and their average age was 7.74 years and 77% had Acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL) diagnosis. 87.5% of the mothers who had a child with cancer had increased fears in their lives, 84.4% had increased workload at home, 82.8% had more stressful life and 82.8% felt themselves physically tired. The mothers indicated that their healthy children could not do the social activities they had used to do before (56.5%), they no longer fed their healthy children with the food they loved eating so that the sick child did not aspire (52.3%) and their healthy children were more furious than before (53.2%). As for the fathers, the fundamental change they had was increased workload at home (82.3%), had more stressful life (80.6%) and could no longer allocate time to the activities they had been interested in and done before (77.8%). There was not a significant difference between the sick children gender and the changes in their parents lives. The communication between the mothers and their healthy children were determined to be positively affected in the families in which the sick child's disease duration was under 12 months (X2 = 6.452, p = 0.011). Conclusion: This study showed that parents having a child with cancer had more workload at home, had more stressful lives, could not allocate time to social activities, had increased fears, felt themselves tired and their healthy children became more furious and their social activities reduced.

Keywords: child, cancer, changes in lives, family

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Authors: Anshul Ashu

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Computers are applied to the vehicle aerodynamics in two ways. One of two is Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and other is Computer Aided Flow Visualization (CAFV). Out of two CFD is chosen because it shows the result with computer graphics. The simulation of flow field around the vehicle is one of the important CFD applications. The flow field can be solved numerically using panel methods, k-ε method, and direct simulation methods. The spoiler is the tool in vehicle aerodynamics used to minimize unfavorable aerodynamic effects around the vehicle and the parallel spoiler is set of two spoilers which are designed in such a manner that it could effectively reduce the drag. In this study, the standard k-ε model of the simplified version of Bugatti Veyron, Audi R8 and Porsche 911 are used to simulate the external flow field. Flow simulation is done for variable Reynolds number. The flow simulation consists of three different levels, first over the model without a rear spoiler, second for over model with single rear spoiler, and third over the model with parallel rear-spoiler. The second and third level has following parameter: the shape of the spoiler, the angle of attack and attachment position. A thorough analysis of simulations results has been found. And a new parallel spoiler is designed. It shows a little improvement in vehicle aerodynamics with a decrease in vehicle aerodynamic drag and lift. Hence, it leads to good fuel economy and traction force of the model.

Keywords: drag, lift, flow simulation, spoiler

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Authors: K. Petcharaporn, S. Kumchoo

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The acidity (citric acid) is one of the chemical contents that can refer to the internal quality and the maturity index of tomato. The titratable acidity (%TA) can be predicted by a non-destructive method prediction by using the transmittance short wavelength (SW-NIR). Spectroscopy in the wavelength range between 665-955 nm. The set of 167 tomato samples divided into groups of 117 tomatoes sample for training set and 50 tomatoes sample for test set were used to establish the calibration model to predict and measure %TA by partial least squares regression (PLSR) technique. The spectra were pretreated with MSC pretreatment and it gave the optimal result for calibration model as (R = 0.92, RMSEC = 0.03%) and this model obtained high accuracy result to use for %TA prediction in test set as (R = 0.81, RMSEP = 0.05%). From the result of prediction in test set shown that the transmittance SW-NIR spectroscopy technique can be used for a non-destructive method for %TA prediction of tomatoes.

Keywords: tomato, quality, prediction, transmittance, titratable acidity, citric acid

Procedia PDF Downloads 263

Authors: H. Yanar, G. Purcek, H. H. Ayar

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The ingredients of composite materials used for the production of composite brake pads play an important role in terms of safety braking performance of automobiles and trains. Therefore, the ingredients must be selected carefully and used in appropriate ratios in the matrix structure of the brake pad materials. In the present study, a non-asbestos organic composite brake pad materials containing binder resin, space fillers, solid lubricants, and friction modifier was developed, and its fillers content was optimized by adding natural rubber with different rate into the specified matrix structure in order to achieve the best combination of tribo-performance and mechanical properties. For this purpose, four compositions with different rubber content (2.5wt.%, 5.0wt.%, 7.5wt.% and 10wt.%) were prepared and then test samples with the diameter of 20 mm and length of 15 mm were produced to evaluate the friction and mechanical behaviors of the mixture. The friction and wear tests were performed using a pin-on-disc type test rig which was designed according to NF-F-11-292 French standard. All test samples were subjected to two different types of friction tests defined as periodic braking and continuous braking (also known as fade test). In this way, the coefficient of friction (CoF) of composite sample with different rubber content were determined as a function of number of braking cycle and temperature of the disc surface. The results demonstrated that addition of rubber into the matrix structure of the composite caused a significant change in the CoF. Average CoF of the composite samples increased linearly with increasing rubber content into the matrix. While the average CoF was 0.19 for the rubber-free composite, the composite sample containing 20wt.% rubber had the maximum CoF of about 0.24. Although the CoF of composite sample increased, the amount of specific wear rate decreased with increasing rubber content into the matrix. On the other hand, it was observed that the CoF decreased with increasing temperature generated in-between sample and disk depending on the increasing rubber content. While the CoF decreased to the minimum value of 0.15 at 400 °C for the rubber-free composite sample, the sample having the maximum rubber content of 10wt.% exhibited the lowest one of 0.09 at the same temperature. Addition of rubber into the matrix structure decreased the hardness and strength of the samples. It was concluded from the results that the composite matrix with 5 wt.% rubber had the best composition regarding the performance parameters such as required frictional and mechanical behavior. This composition has the average CoF of 0.21, specific wear rate of 0.024 cm³/MJ and hardness value of 63 HRX.

Keywords: brake pad composite, friction and wear, rubber, friction materials

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Authors: Titanilla Komenda

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Human-machine-collaboration defines a direct interaction between humans and machines to fulfil specific tasks. Those so-called collaborative machines are used without fencing and interact with humans in predefined workspaces. Even though, human-machine-collaboration enables a flexible adaption to variable degrees of freedom, industrial applications are rarely found. The reasons for this are not technical progress but rather limitations in planning processes ensuring safety for operators. Until now, humans and machines were mainly considered separately in the planning process, focusing on ergonomics and system performance respectively. Within human-machine-collaboration, those aspects must not be seen in isolation from each other but rather need to be analysed in interaction. Furthermore, a simulation model is needed that can validate the system performance and ensure the safety for the operator at any given time. Following on from this, a holistic simulation model is presented, enabling a simulative representation of collaborative tasks – including both, humans and machines. The presented model does not only include a geometry and a motion model of interacting humans and machines but also a numerical behaviour model of humans as well as a Boole’s probabilistic sensor model. With this, error scenarios can be simulated by validating system behaviour in unplanned situations. As these models can be defined on the basis of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis as well as probabilities of errors, the implementation in a collaborative model is discussed and evaluated regarding limitations and simulation times. The functionality of the model is shown on industrial applications by comparing simulation results with video data. The analysis shows the impact of considering human factors in the planning process in contrast to only meeting system performance. In this sense, an optimisation function is presented that meets the trade-off between human and machine factors and aids in a successful and safe realisation of collaborative scenarios.

Keywords: human-machine-system, human-robot-collaboration, safety, simulation

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Authors: C. M. De Marco Muscat-Fenech, A. M. Grech La Rosa

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Importance has been given to resistance analysis for various types of vessels; however explicit guidelines applied to multihull vessels have not been clearly defined. The purpose of this investigation is to highlight the importance of the vessel’s layout in terms of three axes positioning, the transverse (separation), the longitudinal (stagger) and the vertical (draught) with respect to resistance analysis. A vessel has the potential to experience less resistance, at a particular range of speeds, for a vast selection of hull positioning. Many potential layouts create opportunities of various design for both the commercial and leisure market.

Keywords: multihull, reistance, trimaran, vessels

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Authors: Xiao Chen, Alice Ho, Mabel Tie, Xiaoheng Xu

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Background and Significance of the Study: School-enterprise cooperation has been the cornerstone of vocational education in China and many other countries. Researchers and policymakers have paid much attention to ensuring the implementation and improving the quality of school-enterprise cooperation. However, many problems still exist on the implementation level of the cooperation. On the one hand, the enterprises lack the motivation to participate in the cooperation. On the other hand, there is a lack of effective guidance and management during the cooperation. Furthermore, the current literature focuses greatly on policy recommendations on the national level while failing to provide a detailed practical understanding of how school-enterprise cooperation is carried out on the ground level. With emerging social problems, such as the aging population in China, there is an increasing need for diverse nursing services and better nursing quality. Methodology: To gain a deeper understanding of the influencing factors of the implementation of school-enterprise cooperation, this work conducted 37 exploratory interviews in four Chinese cities spanning first-tier to fourth-tier cities with hospital department directors, vocational school deans, nurses, and vocational students. Multiple critical policy documents that founded the current vocational education system in China were analyzed, along with the data collected from the interviews. Major Findings: Based on the policy and interview analyses, this work reveals a set of influencing factors for school-enterprise cooperation implementation. Findings from each region contribute to an overall model of influencing factors for implementing school-enterprise cooperation in vocational nursing education in China, which leads to practical insights for policy recommendation. The key influencing factors are found based on the policy, hospital, school, and social levels. Following practical policy recommendations were presented. Moving forward, further research on the implementation of school-enterprise cooperation in specific industries will become increasingly critical to improving the effectiveness of educational policies and the quality of vocational education.

Keywords: nursing, policy recommendation, school-enterprise cooperation, vocational education

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Authors: Rujijan Vichivanives

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This research aims to create a knowledge-based system as a database for self-healthcare analysis, diagnosis of simple illnesses, and the use of Thai herbs instead of modern medicine by using principles of Thai traditional medication theory. These were disseminated by website network programs within Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. The population used in this study was divided into two groups: the first group consisted of four experts of Thai traditional medication and the second group was 300 website users. The methods used for collecting data were paper questionnaires and poll questionnaires on the website. The statistics used for analyzing data was at an average level. The results were divided into three parts: the first part was the development of a knowledge-based system and the second part was applied programs on website. Both parts could be fulfilled and achieved according to the set goal. The third part was the evaluation of the study: The evaluation of the viewpoints of the experts towards website designs were evaluated at a good level of 4.20. The satisfaction evaluation of the users was found at a good level of average satisfactory level at 4.24. It was found that the young population of those under the age of 16 had less cares about their health than the population of other teenagers, working age adults and those of older age. The research findings should be extended in order to encourage the lifestyle modifications to people of all ages by using the self-healthcare principles.

Keywords: developing, herbs, knowledge-based system, medical treatment

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Authors: Ali Raouli, Amin Chegenizadeh, Hamid Nikraz

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The Perth metropolitan area and its surrounding regions have been expanding rapidly in recent decades and it is expected that this growth will continue in the years to come. With this rapid growth and the resulting increase in population, consideration should be given to strategic planning and modelling for the future expansion of Perth. The accurate estimation of projected traffic volumes has always been a major concern for the transport modelers and planners. Development of a reliable strategic transport model depends significantly on the inputs data into the model and the calibrated parameters of the model to reflect the existing situation. Trip distribution is the second step in four-step modelling (FSM) which is complex due to its behavioral nature. Gravity model is the most common method for trip distribution. The spatial separation between the Origin and Destination (OD) zones will be reflected in gravity model by applying deterrence functions which provide an opportunity to include people’s behavior in choosing their destinations based on distance, time and cost of their journeys. Deterrence functions play an important role for distribution of the trips within a study area and would simulate the trip distances and therefore should be calibrated for any particular strategic transport model to correctly reflect the trip behavior within the modelling area. This paper aims to review the most common deterrence functions and propose a calibrated deterrence function for work trips within the Perth Metropolitan Area based on the information obtained from the latest available Household data and Perth and Region Travel Survey (PARTS) data. As part of this study, a four-step transport model using EMME software has been developed for Perth Metropolitan Area to assist with the analysis and findings.

Keywords: deterrence function, four-step modelling, origin destination, transport model

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Ferdinando Montemari, Antonio Vitale, Nicola Genito, Giovanni Cuciniello

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The introduction of tilt-rotor aircraft into the existing civilian air transportation system will provide beneficial effects due to tilt-rotor capability to combine the characteristics of a helicopter and a fixed-wing aircraft into one vehicle. The disposability of reliable tilt-rotor simulation models supports the development of such vehicle. Indeed, simulation models are required to design automatic control systems that increase safety, reduce pilot's workload and stress, and ensure the optimal aircraft configuration with respect to flight envelope limits, especially during the most critical flight phases such as conversion from helicopter to aircraft mode and vice versa. This article presents a process to build a simplified tilt-rotor simulation model, derived from the analysis of flight data. The model aims to reproduce the complex dynamics of tilt-rotor during the in-flight conversion phase. It uses a set of scheduled linear transfer functions to relate the autopilot reference inputs to the most relevant rigid body state variables. The model also computes information about the rotor flapping dynamics, which are useful to evaluate the aircraft control margin in terms of rotor collective and cyclic commands. The rotor flapping model is derived through a mixed theoretical-empirical approach, which includes physical analytical equations (applicable to helicopter configuration) and parametric corrective functions. The latter are introduced to best fit the actual rotor behavior and balance the differences existing between helicopter and tilt-rotor during flight. Time-domain system identification from flight data is exploited to optimize the model structure and to estimate the model parameters. The presented model-building process was applied to simulated flight data of the ERICA Tilt-Rotor, generated by using a high fidelity simulation model implemented in FlightLab environment. The validation of the obtained model was very satisfying, confirming the validity of the proposed approach.

Keywords: flapping dynamics, flight dynamics, system identification, tilt-rotor modeling and simulation

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Authors: Shangerganesh Lingeshwaran

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In this presentation, we have performed numerical simulations for a reaction-diffusion equation with various nonlinear density-dependent diffusion operators and proliferation functions. The mathematical model represented by parabolic partial differential equation is considered to study the invasion of gliomas (the most common type of brain tumors) and to describe the growth of cancer cells and response to their treatment. The unknown quantity of the given reaction-diffusion equation is the density of cancer cells and the mathematical model based on the proliferation and migration of glioma cells. A standard Galerkin finite element method is used to perform the numerical simulations of the given model. Finally, important observations on the each of nonlinear diffusion functions and proliferation functions are presented with the help of computational results.

Keywords: glioma invasion, nonlinear diffusion, reaction-diffusion, finite eleament method

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Authors: Alibakhsh Kasaeian, Mohammad Sameti, Zahra Noori, Mona Rastgoo Bahambari

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Nowadays, the parabolic trough solar collector technology has become the most promising large-scale technology among various solar thermal generations. In this paper, a detailed numerical heat transfer model for a parabolic trough collector with nanofluid is presented based on the finite difference approach for which a MATLAB code was developed. The model was used to simulate the performance of a parabolic trough solar collector’s linear receiver, called a heat collector element (HCE). In this model, the heat collector element of the receiver was discretized into several segments in axial directions and energy balances were used for each control volume. All the heat transfer correlations, the thermodynamic equations and the optical properties were considered in details and the set of algebraic equations were solved simultaneously using iterative numerical solutions. The modeling assumptions and limitations are also discussed, along with recommendations for model improvement.

Keywords: heat transfer, nanofluid, numerical analysis, trough

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Authors: Aysun Pınarbaşı, Béla Vizvári

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The countries are the units that procure the vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic. The delivered quantities are huge. The countries must bear the inventory holding cost according to the variation of stock quantities. This cost depends on the speed of the vaccination in the country. This speed is time-dependent. The vaccinated portion of the population can be approximated by the cumulative distribution function of the Cauchy distribution. A model is provided for determining the minimal-cost inventory policy, and its optimality conditions are provided. The model is solved for 20 countries for different numbers of procurements. The results reveal the individual behavior of each country. We provide an inventory policy for the pandemic period for the countries. This paper presents a deterministic model for vaccines with a demand rate variable over time for the countries. It is aimed to provide an analytical model to deal with the minimization of holding cost and develop inventory policies regarding this aim to be used for a variety of perishable products such as vaccines. The saturation process is introduced, and an approximation of the vaccination curve of the countries has been discussed. According to this aspect, a deterministic model for inventory policy has been developed.

Keywords: covid-19, vaccination, inventory policy, bounded total demand, inventory holding cost, cauchy distribution, sigmoid function

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Authors: Emmanuel Agunloye, Asterios Gavriilidis, Luca Mazzei

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Gold nanoparticles are commonly synthesized by reducing chloroauric acid with sodium citrate. This method, referred to as the citrate method, can produce spherical gold nanoparticles (NPs) in the size range 10-150 nm. Gold NPs of this size are useful in many applications. However, the NPs are usually polydisperse and irreproducible. A better understanding of the synthesis mechanisms is thus required. This work thoroughly investigated the only model that describes the synthesis. This model combines mass and population balance equations, describing the NPs synthesis through a sequence of chemical reactions. Chloroauric acid reacts with sodium citrate to form aurous chloride and dicarboxy acetone. The latter organizes aurous chloride in a nucleation step and concurrently degrades into acetone. The unconsumed precursor then grows the formed nuclei. However, depending on the pH, both the precursor and the reducing agent react differently thus affecting the synthesis. In this work, we investigated the model for different conditions of pH, temperature and initial reactant concentrations. To solve the model, we used Parsival, a commercial numerical code, whilst to test it, we considered various conditions studied experimentally by different researchers, for which results are available in the literature. The model poorly predicted the experimental data. We believe that this is because the model does not account for the acid-base properties of both chloroauric acid and sodium citrate.

Keywords: citrate method, gold nanoparticles, Parsival, population balance equations, Turkevich organizer theory

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Authors: Mohammed E. A. Brixi Nigassa, Nassima Labdelli, Ahmed Slami, Arnaud Pothier, Sofiane Soulimane

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According to the world health organization (WHO), there are almost 285 million people with visual disability, 39 million of these people are blind. Nevertheless, there is a code for these people that make their life easier and allow them to access information more easily; this code is the Braille code. There are several commercial devices allowing braille reading, unfortunately, most of these devices are not ergonomic and too expensive. Moreover, we know that 90 % of blind people in the world live in low-incomes countries. Our contribution aim is to concept an original microactuator for Braille reading, as well as being ergonomic, inexpensive and lowest possible energy consumption. Nowadays, the piezoelectric device gives the better actuation for low actuation voltage. In this study, we focus on piezoelectric (PZT) material which can bring together all these conditions. Here, we propose to use one matrix composed by six actuators to form the 63 basic combinations of the Braille code that contain letters, numbers, and special characters in compliance with the standards of the braille code. In this work, we use a finite element model with Comsol Multiphysics software for designing and modeling this type of miniature actuator in order to integrate it into a test device. To define the geometry and the design of our actuator, we used physiological limits of perception of human being. Our results demonstrate in our study that piezoelectric actuator could bring a large deflection out-of-plain. Also, we show that microactuators can exhibit non uniform compression. This deformation depends on thin film thickness and the design of membrane arm. The actuator composed of four arms gives the higher deflexion and it always gives a domed deformation at the center of the deviceas in case of the Braille system. The maximal deflection can be estimated around ten micron per Volt (~ 10µm/V). We noticed that the deflection according to the voltage is a linear function, and this deflection not depends only on the voltage the voltage, but also depends on the thickness of the film used and the design of the anchoring arm. Then, we were able to simulate the behavior of the entire matrix and thus display different characters in Braille code. We used these simulations results to achieve our demonstrator. This demonstrator is composed of a layer of PDMS on which we put our piezoelectric material, and then added another layer of PDMS to isolate our actuator. In this contribution, we compare our results to optimize the final demonstrator.

Keywords: Braille code, comsol software, microactuators, piezoelectric

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Authors: Muhammad Noor Ul Ane, Dong-Soon Kim, Myron P. Zalucki

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Models can be useful to help understand population dynamics of insects under diverse environmental conditions and in developing strategies to manage pest species better. Adult longevity and fecundity of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) were evaluated against a wide range of constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 37.5ᵒC). The modified Sharpe and DeMichele model described adult aging rate and was used to estimate adult physiological age. Maximum fecundity of H. armigera was 973 egg/female at 25ᵒC decreasing to 72 eggs/female at 37.5ᵒC. The relationship between adult fecundity and temperature was well described by an extreme value function. Age-specific cumulative oviposition rate and age-specific survival rate were well described by a two-parameter Weibull function and sigmoid function, respectively. An oviposition model was developed using three temperature-dependent components: total fecundity, age-specific oviposition rate, and age-specific survival rate. The oviposition model was validated against independent field data and described the field occurrence pattern of egg population of H. armigera very well. Our model should be a useful component for population modeling of H. armigera and can be independently used for the timing of sprays in management programs of this key pest species.

Keywords: cotton bollworm, life table, temperature-dependent adult development, temperature-dependent fecundity

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Authors: Sabrina Azzi, Michal Iglewski, Véronique Nabelsi

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Diagnosis error problem is frequent and one of the most important safety problems today. One of the main objectives of our work is to propose an ontological representation that takes into account the diagnostic criteria in order to improve the diagnostic. We choose pneumonia disease since it is one of the frequent diseases affected by diagnosis errors and have harmful effects on patients. To achieve our aim, we use a semi-automated method to integrate diverse knowledge sources that include publically available pneumonia disease guidelines from international repositories, biomedical ontologies and electronic health records. We follow the principles of the Open Biomedical Ontologies (OBO) Foundry. The resulting ontology covers symptoms and signs, all the types of pneumonia, antecedents, pathogens, and diagnostic testing. The first evaluation results show that most of the terms are covered by the ontology. This work is still in progress and represents a first and major step toward a development of a diagnosis decision support system for pneumonia.

Keywords: Clinical decision support system, Diagnostic errors, Ontology, Pneumonia

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Authors: Ilker Ali Ozkan

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In this study, an artificial neural network model has been developed to estimate chronic kidney failure which is a common disease. The patients’ age, their blood and biochemical values, and 24 input data which consists of various chronic diseases are used for the estimation process. The input data have been subjected to preprocessing because they contain both missing values and nominal values. 147 patient data which was obtained from the preprocessing have been divided into as 70% training and 30% testing data. As a result of the study, artificial neural network model with 25 neurons in the hidden layer has been found as the model with the lowest error value. Chronic kidney failure disease has been able to be estimated accurately at the rate of 99.3% using this artificial neural network model. The developed artificial neural network has been found successful for the estimation of chronic kidney failure disease using clinical data.

Keywords: estimation, artificial neural network, chronic kidney failure disease, disease diagnosis

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Authors: Jozef Mindas, Jaroslav Skvarenina, Jana Skvareninova

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Study of the effects of climate change on Norway Spruce (Picea abies) forests has mainly focused on the diversity of tree species diversity of tree species as a result of the ability of species to tolerate temperature and moisture changes as well as some effects of disturbance regime changes. The tree species’ diversity changes in spruce forests due to climate change have been analyzed via gap model. Forest gap model is a dynamic model for calculation basic characteristics of individual forest trees. Input ecological data for model calculations have been taken from the permanent research plots located in primeval forests in mountainous regions in Slovakia. The results of regional scenarios of the climatic change for the territory of Slovakia have been used, from which the values are according to the CGCM3.1 (global) model, KNMI and MPI (regional) models. Model results for conditions of the climate change scenarios suggest a shift of the upper forest limit to the region of the present subalpine zone, in supramontane zone. N. spruce representation will decrease at the expense of beech and precious broadleaved species (Acer sp., Sorbus sp., Fraxinus sp.). The most significant tree species diversity changes have been identified for the upper tree line and current belt of dwarf pine (Pinus mugo) occurrence. The results have been also discussed in relation to most important disturbances (wind storms, snow and ice storms) and phenological changes which consequences are little known. Special discussion is focused on biomass production changes in relation to carbon storage diversity in different carbon pools.

Keywords: biodiversity, climate change, Norway spruce forests, gap model

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Authors: Misagh Faezipour

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System dynamics is a systems engineering approach that can help address the complex challenges in different systems. Little is known about how the brain represents people to predict behavior. This work is based on how the brain simulates different personal behavior and responds to them in the case of young children ages one to five. As we know, children’s minds/brains are just as clean as a crystal, and throughout time, in their surroundings, families, and education center, they grow to develop and have different kinds of behavior towards the world and the society they live in. Hence, this work aims to identify how young children respond to various personality behavior and observes their reactions towards them from a system dynamics perspective. We will be exploring the Big Five personality traits in young children. A causal model is developed in support of the system dynamics approach. These models graphically present the factors and factor relationships that contribute to the big five personality traits and provide a better understanding of the entire behavior model. A simulator will be developed that includes a set of causal model factors and factor relationships. The simulator models the behavior of different factors related to personality traits and their impacts and can help make more informed decisions in a risk-free environment.

Keywords: personality traits, systems engineering, system dynamics, causal model, behavior model

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Authors: Omran Alharbi, Victor Lally

Abstract:

The advantages of the adoption of new technology such as learning management systems (LMSs) in education and teaching methods have been widely recognised. This has led a large number of universities to integrate this type of technology into their daily learning and teaching activities in order to facilitate the education process for both learners and teachers. On the other hand, in some developing countries such as Saudi Arabia, educators have seldom used this technology. As a result, this study was conducted in order to investigate the factors that impede teachers’ use of technology (LMSs) in their teaching in Saudi Arabian institutions. This study used a qualitative approach. Eight participants were invited to take part in this study, and they were asked to give their opinions about the most significant factors that prevented them from integrating technology into their daily activities. The results revealed that a lack of LMS skills, interest in and knowledge about the LMS among teachers were the most significant factors impeding them from using technology in their lessons. The participants suggested that incentive training should be provided to reduce these challenges.

Keywords: LMS, factors, KSA, teachers

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Shubham Dwivedi, Raghavender Medishetti, Rita Rani, Aarti Sevilimedu, Pushkar Kulkarni, Yogeeswari Perumal

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Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a complex neurodevelopmental disorder of early onset, characterized by impaired sociability, cognitive function and stereotypies. There is a significant urge to develop and establish new animal models with ASD-like characteristics for better understanding of underlying mechanisms. The aim of the present study was to develop a cost and time effective zebrafish model with quantifiable parameters to facilitate mechanistic studies as well as high-throughput screening of new molecules for autism. Zebrafish embryos were treated with valproic acid and a battery of behavioral tests (anxiety, inattentive behavior, irritability and social impairment) was performed on larvae at 7th day post fertilization, followed by study of molecular markers of autism. This model shows a significant behavioural impairment in valproic acid treated larvae in comparison to control which was again supported by alteration in few marker genes and proteins of autism. The model also shows a rescue of behavioural despair with positive control drugs. The model shows robust parameters to study behavior, molecular mechanism and drug screening approach in a single frame. Thus we postulate that our 7 days zebrafish larval model for autism can help in high throughput screening of new molecules on autism.

Keywords: autism, zebrafish, valproic acid, neurodevelopment, behavioral assay

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Hengki Eko Putra, Dennish Ari Putro, Tri Wahyu Hadi, Edi Riawan, Junnaedhi Dewa Gede, Aditia Rojali, Fariza Dian Prasetyo, Yudhistira Satya Pribadi, Dita Fatria Andarini, Mila Khaerunisa, Raditya Hanung Prakoswa

Abstract:

Catastrophe risk management can only be done if we are able to calculate the exposed risks. Jakarta is an important city economically, socially, and politically and in the same time exposed to severe floods. On the other hand, flood risk calculation is still very limited in the area. This study has calculated the risk of flooding for Jakarta using 2-Dimensional Model ANUGA. 2-Dimensional model ANUGA and 1-Dimensional Model HEC-RAS are used to calculate the risk of flooding from 13 major rivers in Jakarta. ANUGA can simulate physical and dynamical processes between the streamflow against river geometry and land cover to produce a 1-meter resolution inundation map. The value of streamflow as an input for the model obtained from hydrological analysis on rainfall data using hydrologic model HEC-HMS. The probabilistic streamflow derived from probabilistic rainfall using statistical distribution Log-Pearson III, Normal and Gumbel, through compatibility test using Chi Square and Smirnov-Kolmogorov. Flood event on 2007 is used as a comparison to evaluate the accuracy of model output. Property damage estimations were calculated based on flood depth for 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years return period against housing value data from the BPS-Statistics Indonesia, Centre for Research and Development of Housing and Settlements, Ministry of Public Work Indonesia. The vulnerability factor was derived from flood insurance claim. Jakarta's flood loss estimation for the return period of 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years, respectively are Rp 1.30 t; Rp 16.18 t; Rp 16.85 t; Rp 21.21 t; Rp 24.32 t; and Rp 24.67 t of the total value of building Rp 434.43 t.

Keywords: 2D hydrodynamic model, ANUGA, flood, flood modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 260

Authors: Huda Al Shuaily, Karen Renaud

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Databases comprise the foundation of most software systems. System developers inevitably write code to query these databases. The de facto language for querying is SQL and this, consequently, is the default language taught by higher education institutions. There is evidence that learners find it hard to master SQL, harder than mastering other programming languages such as Java. Educators do not agree about explanations for this seeming anomaly. Further investigation may well reveal the reasons. In this paper, we report on our investigations into how novices learn SQL, the actual problems they experience when writing SQL, as well as the differences between expert and novice SQL query writers. We conclude by presenting a model of SQL learning that should inform the instructional material design process better to support the SQL learning process.

Keywords: pattern, SQL, learning, model

Procedia PDF Downloads 246

Authors: C. Surmei

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Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a complex developmental disorder that can affect an individual’s (but is not limited to) cognitive development, emotional development, language acquisition and the capability to relate to others. Ecological Systems Theory is a sociocultural theory that focuses on environmental systems with which an individual interacts. The SCERTS Model is an educational approach and multidisciplinary framework that addresses the challenges confronted by individuals on the autism spectrum and other developmental disabilities. To aid the understanding of ASD and educational philosophies for families, educators, and the global community alike, a Comparative Analysis was undertaken to examine key variables (the child, society, education, nurture/care, relationships, communication). The results indicated that the Ecological Systems Theory and the SCERTS Model were comparable in focus, motivation, and application, attaining to a viable and notable relationship between both theories. This paper unpacks two child development philosophies and their relationship to each other.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, ecological systems theory, education, SCERTS model

Procedia PDF Downloads 559

Authors: Phakamani Xaba, Robert Huberts, Bilainu Oboirien

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The present study was aimed at developing & comparing two neural-network-based predictive models to predict shelf-life/product age of South African margarine using free fatty acid (FFA), water droplet size (D3.3), water droplet distribution (e-sigma), moisture content, peroxide value (PV), anisidine valve (AnV) and total oxidation (totox) value as input variables to the model. Brick margarine products which had varying ages ranging from fresh i.e. week 0 to week 47 were sourced. The brick margarine products which had been stored at 10 & 25 °C and were characterized. JMP and MATLAB models to predict shelf-life/ margarine age were developed and their performances were compared. The key performance indicators to evaluate the model performances were correlation coefficient (CC), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) relative to the actual data. The MATLAB-developed model showed a better performance in all three performance indicators. The correlation coefficient of the MATLAB model was 99.86% versus 99.74% for the JMP model, the RMSE was 0.720 compared to 1.005 and the MAPE was 7.4% compared to 8.571%. The MATLAB model was selected to be the most accurate, and then, the number of hidden neurons/ nodes was optimized to develop a single predictive model. The optimized MATLAB with 10 neurons showed a better performance compared to the models with 1 & 5 hidden neurons. The developed models can be used by margarine manufacturers, food research institutions, researchers etc, to predict shelf-life/ margarine product age, optimize addition of antioxidants, extend shelf-life of products and proactively troubleshoot for problems related to changes which have an impact on shelf-life of margarine without conducting expensive trials.

Keywords: margarine shelf-life, predictive modelling, neural networks, oil oxidation

Procedia PDF Downloads 183

Authors: Tejinder Pal Singh, Ravinder Kumar Malik, Gurpreet Kaur

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Adhesion is key factor for colonization of the gastrointestinal tract and the ability of probiotic strains to inhibit pathogens. Therefore, the adhesion ability is considered as a suitable biomarker for the selection of potential probiotic. In the present study, eight probiotic Lactobacillus reuteri strains were evaluated as viable, LiCl treated or heat-killed forms and compared with probiotic reference strains (L. reuteri ATCC55730). All strains investigated were able to adhere to Caco-2 cells. All probiotic L. reuteri strains tested were able to inhibit and displace (P < 0.05) the adhesion of Escherichia coli ATCC25922, Salmonella typhi NCDC113, Listeria monocytogenes ATCC53135 and Enterococcus faecalis NCDC115. The probiotic strain L. reuteri LR6 showed the strongest adhesion and pathogen inhibition ability among the eight L. reuteri strains tested. In addition, the abilities to inhibit and to displace adhered pathogens depended on both the probiotic and the pathogen strains tested suggesting the involvement of various mechanisms. The adhesion and antagonistic potential of the probiotic strains were significantly decreased upon exposure to 5M LiCl, showing that surface molecules, proteinaceous in nature, are involved. The heat-killed forms of the probiotic L. reuteri strains also inhibited the attachment of selected pathogens to Caco-2 cells. In conclusion, in vitro assays showed that L. reuteri strains, as viable or heat-killed forms, are adherent to Caco-2 cell line model and are highly antagonistic to selected pathogens in which surface molecules, proteinaceous molecules in particular, plays an important role.

Keywords: probiotics, Lactobacillus reuteri, adhesion, Caco-2 cells

Procedia PDF Downloads 240