Search results for: geological uncertainty

Authors: Isabella Maria Beil

Abstract:

The International Geosciences and Geoparks Programme (IGGP) were officially created in 2015 by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) to enhance the protection of the geological heritage and fill the gaps on the World Heritage Convention. According to UNESCO, a Global Geopark is an unified area where sites and landscapes of international geological significance are managed based on a concept of sustainable development. Tourism is seen as a main activity to develop new sources of revenue. Currently (November 2022), UNESCO recognized 177 Global Geoparks, of which more than 50% are in Europe, 40% in Asia, 6% in Latin America, and the remaining 4% are distributed between Africa and Anglo-Saxon America. This picture shows the existence of a much uneven geographical distribution of these areas across the planet. Currently, there are three Geoparks in Brazil; however, the first of them was accepted by the Global Geoparks Network in 2006 and, just fifteen years later, two other Brazilian Geoparks also obtained the UNESCO title. Therefore, this paper aims to provide an overview of the current geopark situation in Brazil and to identify the main challenges faced by the implementation of these areas in the country. To this end, the Brazilian history and its main characteristics regarding the development of geoparks over the years will be briefly presented. Then, the results obtained from interviews with those responsible for each of the current 29 aspiring geoparks in Brazil will be presented. Finally, the main challenges related to the implementation of Geoparks in the country will be listed. Among these challenges, the answers obtained through the interviews revealed conflicts and problems that pose hindrances both to the start of the development of a Geopark project and to its continuity and implementation. It is clear that the task of getting multiple social actors, or stakeholders, to engage with the Geopark, one of UNESCO’s guidelines, is one of its most complex aspects. Therefore, among the main challenges, stand out the difficulty of establishing solid partnerships, what directly reflects divergences between the different social actors and their goals. This difficulty in establishing partnerships happens for a number of reasons. One of them is that the investment in a Geopark project can be high and investors often expect a short-term financial return. In addition, political support from the public sector is often costly as well, since the possible results and positive influences of a Geopark in a given area will only be experienced during future mandates. These results demonstrate that the research on Geoparks goes far beyond the geological perspective linked to its origins, and is deeply embedded in political and economic issues.

Keywords: Brazil, geoparks, tourism, UNESCO

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Donatella R. Fiorino, Marzia Loddo

Abstract:

The practice of freeing monuments from subsequent additions crosses the entire history of conservation and it is traditionally connected to the aim of valorisation, both for cultural and educational purpose and recently even for touristic exploitation. Defence heritage has been widely interested by these cultural and technical moods from philological restoration to critic innovations. A renovated critical analysis of Italian episodes and in particular the Sardinian case of the area of San Pancrazio in Cagliari, constitute an important lesson about the limits of this practice and the uncertainty in terms of results, towards the definition of a sustainable good practice in the restoration of military architectures.

Keywords: defensive architecture, liberation, Valorisation for tourism, historical restoration

Procedia PDF Downloads 332

Authors: Trung Le Thanh

Abstract:

Bored piles are always the optimal solution for high-rise building foundations. They have many advantages, such as large diameter, large pile length and construction in all different geological conditions. However, due to construction characteristics, the load-bearing capacity of bored piles is not optimal because wall friction is reduced due to poor contact between the pile and the surrounding soil. Therefore, grouting technology along the pile body helps improve the load-bearing capacity of bored piles significantly through increasing the skin resistance of the pile and surrounding soil. The improvement of pile skin resistance depends on the parameters of grouting technology, especially grouting volume, mortar viscosity, mortar strength,... and different geological conditions. Studies show that the technology of grouting piles on sandy soil is more effective than on clay. This article presents an experimental model to determine the load-bearing capacity of bored piles with a diameter of 400 mm and a length of 3 m on sand with different slurry volume in Tan Uyen city, Binh Duong province. On that basis, analyze the correlation between the increase in load-bearing capacity of bored piles without and with shaft grouting pile. Research results show that the wall resistance of shaft grouted piles increases 2-3 times compared to piles without grouting, and the pile's load-bearing capacity increases significantly. The article's research provides scientific value for consulting work on the design of bored piles when grouted along the pile body.

Keywords: bored pile, shaft grouting, bearing capacity, pile shaft resistance

Procedia PDF Downloads 54

Authors: Fatbardha Kadiu, Nulifer Caliskan

Abstract:

The value added tax came as a necessity of substituting the old tax on sales. Based on the advantages of this new tax in our days it is used successfully in more than 140 countries around the world. The aim of the paper is to describe the nature of this tax with its advantages and disadvantages. Also it will describe the way how it functions in most of the European countries and the actual challenges of these countries on value added tax. It will be present the types of goods which are exempt from this tax, the reasons and the consequences of those exemptions. The paper will be based on secondary data taken from respective literature. An econometric model will be present in order to identify the dependence of value tax from other parameters. The analyzing most refers to the two main principles of harmonization and billing on the fiscal system and the ways how to restructures the system in order to minimize the fiscal evasion.

Keywords: value added tax, revenues, complexity, legal uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 388

Authors: Aparna Viswanath

Abstract:

Electricity spot prices are highly volatile under optimal generation capacity scenarios due to factors such as non-storability of electricity, peak demand at certain periods, generator outages, fuel uncertainty for renewable energy generators, huge investments and time needed for generation capacity expansion etc. As a result market participants are exposed to price and volume risk, which has led to the development of risk management practices. This paper provides an overview of risk management practices by market participants in electricity markets using financial derivatives.

Keywords: financial derivatives, forward, futures, options, risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 466

Authors: Malay Kumar Pramanik

Abstract:

Climate change induced sea level rise increases storm surge, erosion, and inundation, which are stirred by an intricate interplay of physical environmental components at the coastal region. The Mumbai coast is much vulnerable to accelerated regional sea level change due to its highly dense population, highly developed economy, and low topography. To determine the significant causes behind coastal vulnerability, this study analyzes four different iterations of CVI by incorporating the pixel-based differentially weighted rank values of the selected five geological (CVI5), three physical (CVI8 with including geological variables), and four socio-economic variables (CVI4). However, CVI5 and CVI8 results yielded broadly similar natures, but after including socio-economic variables (CVI4), the results CVI (CVI12) has been changed at Mumbai and Kurla coastal portion that indicates the study coastal areas are mostly sensible with socio-economic variables. Therefore, the results of CVI12 show that out of 274.1 km of coastline analyzed, 55.83 % of the coast is very low vulnerable, 60.91 % of the coast is moderately vulnerable while 50.75 % is very high vulnerable. Finding also admits that in the context of growing urban population and the increasing rate of economic activities, socio-economic variables are most important variable to use for validating and testing the CVI. Finally, some recommendations are presented for concerned decision makers and stakeholders to develop appropriate coastal management plans, nourishment projects and mitigation measures considering socio-economic variables.

Keywords: coastal vulnerability index, sea level change, Mumbai coast, geospatial approach, coastal management, climate change

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: N. Maksimentseva

Abstract:

The issue of public administration in subsoil use, renewal and protection is of high importance for Ukraine since it is strongly linked to energy security of the state as well as it shall facilitate the people of Ukraine to efficiently implement its propitiatory rights towards natural resources and redistribution of national wealth. As it is stipulated in the Article 11 of the Subsoil Code of Ukraine (the Code) the authorities that administer the industry are limited to central executive bodies and local governments. In particular, it is stipulated in the Code that the Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers carries out public administration in geological exploration, production and protection of subsoil. Other state bodies of public administration include central public authority responsible for state environmental protection policies; central public authority in charge of implementation of state geological exploration and efficient subsoil use policies; central authority in charge of state health and safety control policies. There are also public authorities in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea; local executive bodies and other state authorities and local self-government authorities in compliance with laws of Ukraine. This article is devoted to the analysis of the legal relations in the area of public administration of subsoil use, renewal and protection in Ukraine. The main approaches to study the essence of legal relations in the named area as well as its tasks, functions and methods are analyzed. It is concluded in this article that legal relationship in the field of public administration of subsoil use, renewal and protection is characterized by specifics of its task (development of natural resources).

Keywords: legal relations, public administration, subsoil code of Ukraine, subsoil use, renewal and protection

Procedia PDF Downloads 342

Authors: Farid Adisaputra Gumilang

Abstract:

Kucing Liar Underground Mine is a future mine of PT Freeport Indonesia PTFI that is currently being developed. In the development process, problems were found when blasting the tunnels; there were overbreak, and void occur caused by geological contact or poor rock conditions. Geotechnical engineers must evaluate not only the remnant capacity of ground support systems but also investigate the depth of rock mass yield within pillars. To prevent the potential hazard caused by void zones, geotechnical engineers must ensure the planned drift is mined in the best location where people can work safely. GPR, or Ground penetrating radar, is a geophysical method that can image the subsurface. This non-destructive method uses electromagnetic radiation and detects the reflected signals from subsurface structures. The GPR survey measurements are conducted 48 meters along the drift that has a poor ground condition with 150MHz antenna with several angles (roof, wall, and floor). Concern grounds are determined by the continuity of reflector/low reflector in the radargram section. Concern grounds are determined by the continuity of reflector/low reflector in the radargram section. In this paper, processing data using instantaneous amplitude to identify the void zone. In order to have a good interpretation and result, it combines with the geological information and borehole camera data, so the calibrated GPR data allows the geotechnical engineer to determine the safe location to change the drift location.

Keywords: underground mine, ground penetrating radar, reflectivity, borehole camera

Procedia PDF Downloads 65

Authors: Vahid Tabrizi, Reza GHasemi, Ahmadreza Vali

Abstract:

This paper presents robust nonlinear control law for a quadrotor UAV using fast terminal sliding mode control. Fast terminal sliding mode idea is used for introducing a nonlinear sliding variable that guarantees the finite time convergence in sliding phase. Then, in reaching phase for removing chattering and producing smooth control signal, continuous approximation idea is used. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm is robust against parameter uncertainty and has better performance than conventional sliding mode for controlling a quadrotor UAV.

Keywords: quadrotor UAV, fast terminal sliding mode, second order sliding mode t

Procedia PDF Downloads 528

Authors: Bouayachi Ali, Alikouss Saida, Baroudi Zouhir, Zerhouni Youssef, Zouhair Mohammed, El Idrissi Assia, Essalhi Mourad

Abstract:

The world-class Imiter silver deposit is located on the northern flank of the Precambrian Imiter buttonhole. This deposit is formed by epithermal veins hosted in the sandstone-pelite formations of the lower complex and in the basic conglomerates of the upper complex, these veins are controlled by a regional scale fault cluster, oriented N70°E to N90°E. The present work on the contribution of remote sensing on the geological mapping of the Imiter buttonhole and application to the mineralized structures of the Principal Corps B3. Mapping on satellite images is a very important tool in mineral prospecting. It allows the localization of the zones of interest in order to orientate the field missions by helping the localization of the major structures which facilitates the interpretation, the programming and the orientation of the mining works. The predictive map also allows for the correction of field mapping work, especially the direction and dimensions of structures such as dykes, corridors or scrapings. The use of a series of processing such as SAM, PCA, MNF and unsupervised and supervised classification on a Landsat 8 satellite image of the study area allowed us to highlight the main facies of the Imite area. To improve the exploration research, we used another processing that allows to realize a spatial distribution of the alteration mineral indices, and the application of several filters on the different bands to have lineament maps.

Keywords: principal corps B3, teledetection, Landsat 8, Imiter II, silver mineralization, lineaments

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Max Moleke, Gilbert Mbonde

Abstract:

Coordinating supply chain process within a manufacturing environment is a very critical aspect of any organization. Nowadays, most manufacturing industries turn to look at only the financial indicator which in real life situation on the shop floor, there are a number of supply chain disruptions that are been ignored. In this work, we had to look at different types of supply chain disruption and their various impact within the organization. A number of Industrial engineering tools are employed which includes, Multifactor productivity, activity on arrow and rescheduling plans. The final result shows that supply chain disruption various with different geographical area where the production plant is operating.

Keywords: supply chain, disruptions, flow shop scheduling, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 418

Authors: K. M. Alsager, N. O. Alshehri

Abstract:

In this paper, we proposed the notion of single valued neutrosophic hesitant fuzzy rough set, by combining single valued neutrosophic hesitant fuzzy set and rough set. The combination of single valued neutrosophic hesitant fuzzy set and rough set is a powerful tool for dealing with uncertainty, granularity and incompleteness of knowledge in information systems. We presented both definition and some basic properties of the proposed model. Finally, we gave a general approach which is applied to a decision making problem in disease diagnoses, and demonstrated the effectiveness of the approach by a numerical example.

Keywords: single valued neutrosophic fuzzy set, single valued neutrosophic fuzzy hesitant set, rough set, single valued neutrosophic hesitant fuzzy rough set

Procedia PDF Downloads 260

Authors: Rashmi Dyondi, Shishir K. Jha

Abstract:

The purpose of the paper is to address the strategic risk issues surrounding Hindi film distribution in Mumbai for a film distributor, who acts as an entrepreneur when launching a product (movie) in the market (film territory).The paper undertakes a fundamental review of films and risk in the Hindi film industry and applies Grounded Theory technique to understand the complex phenomena of risk taking behavior of the film distributors (both independent and studios) in Mumbai. Rich in-depth interviews with distributors are coded to develop core categories through constant comparison leading to conceptualization of the phenomena of interest. This paper is a first-of-its-kind-attempt to understand risk behavior of a distributor, which is akin to entrepreneurial risk behavior under conditions of uncertainty. Unlike extensive scholarly work on dynamics of Hollywood motion picture industry, Hindi film industry is an under-researched area till now. Especially how do film distributors perceive risk is an unexplored study for the Hindi film industry. Films are unique experience products and the film distributor acts as an entrepreneur assuming high risks given the uncertainty in the motion picture business. With the entry of mighty corporate studios and astronomical film budgets posing serious business threats to the independent distributors, there is a need for an in-depth qualitative enquiry (applying grounded theory technique) for unraveling the definition of risk for the independent distributors in Mumbai vis-à-vis the corporate studios. Need for good content was a common challenge to both the groups in the present state of the industry, however corporate studios with their distinct ideologies, focus on own productions and financial power faced different set of challenges than the independents (like achieving sustainability in business). Softer issues like market goodwill and relations with producers, honesty in business dealings and transparency came out to be clear markers for success of independents in long run. The findings from the qualitative analysis stress on different elements of risk and challenges as perceived by the two groups of distributors in the Hindi film industry and provide a future research agenda for empirical investigation of determinants of box-office success of Hindi films distributed in Mumbai.

Keywords: entrepreneurial risk behavior, film distribution strategy, Hindi film industry, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 304

Authors: David G. Maxinez, Andrés Ferreyra Ramírez, Liliana Castillo Sánchez, Nancy Adán Mendoza, Carlos Aviles Cruz

Abstract:

This research describes the use of fuzzy logic in detection, assessment, analysis and evaluation of children with behavioral disorders. It shows how to acquire and analyze ambiguous, vague and full of uncertainty data coming from the input variables to get an accurate assessment result for each of the typologies presented by children with behavior problems. Behavior disorders analyzed in this paper are: hyperactivity (H), attention deficit with hyperactivity (DAH), conduct disorder (TD) and attention deficit (AD).

Keywords: alteration, behavior, centroid, detection, disorders, economic, fuzzy logic, hyperactivity, impulsivity, social

Procedia PDF Downloads 551

Authors: Mohammad A. U. Khan, Omar A. Kittaneh, M. Akbar, Tariq M. Khan, Husam A. Bayoud

Abstract:

The Shannon Entropy measure has been widely used for measuring uncertainty. However, in partial settings, the histogram is used to estimate the underlying distribution. The histogram is dependent on the number of bins used. In this paper, a modification is proposed that makes the Shannon entropy based on histogram consistent. For providing the benefits, two application are picked in medical image processing applications. The simulations are carried out to show the superiority of this modified measure for image segmentation problem. The improvement may be contributed to robustness shown to uneven background in images.

Keywords: Shannon entropy, medical image processing, image segmentation, modification

Procedia PDF Downloads 486

Authors: Alia Alghosoun, Nabil El Moçayd, Mohammed Seaid

Abstract:

Modeling dam-break flows over non-flat beds requires an accurate representation of the topography which is the main source of uncertainty in the model. Therefore, developing robust and accurate techniques for reconstructing topography in this class of problems would reduce the uncertainty in the flow system. In many hydraulic applications, experimental techniques have been widely used to measure the bed topography. In practice, experimental work in hydraulics may be very demanding in both time and cost. Meanwhile, computational hydraulics have served as an alternative for laboratory and field experiments. Unlike the forward problem, the inverse problem is used to identify the bed parameters from the given experimental data. In this case, the shallow water equations used for modeling the hydraulics need to be rearranged in a way that the model parameters can be evaluated from measured data. However, this approach is not always possible and it suffers from stability restrictions. In the present work, we propose an adaptive optimal control technique to numerically identify the underlying bed topography from a given set of free-surface observation data. In this approach, a minimization function is defined to iteratively determine the model parameters. The proposed technique can be interpreted as a fractional-stage scheme. In the first stage, the forward problem is solved to determine the measurable parameters from known data. In the second stage, the adaptive control Ensemble Kalman Filter is implemented to combine the optimality of observation data in order to obtain the accurate estimation of the topography. The main features of this method are on one hand, the ability to solve for different complex geometries with no need for any rearrangements in the original model to rewrite it in an explicit form. On the other hand, its achievement of strong stability for simulations of flows in different regimes containing shocks or discontinuities over any geometry. Numerical results are presented for a dam-break flow problem over non-flat bed using different solvers for the shallow water equations. The robustness of the proposed method is investigated using different numbers of loops, sensitivity parameters, initial samples and location of observations. The obtained results demonstrate high reliability and accuracy of the proposed techniques.

Keywords: erodible beds, finite element method, finite volume method, nonlinear elasticity, shallow water equations, stresses in soil

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: S. Cencek, A. Markun

Abstract:

Noise assessment methods are regularly used in scope of Environmental Impact Assessments for planned projects to assess (predict) the expected noise emissions of these projects. Different noise assessment methods could be used. In recent years, we had an opportunity to collaborate in some noise assessment procedures where noise assessments of different laboratories have been performed simultaneously. We identified some significant differences in noise assessment results between laboratories in Slovenia. We estimate that despite good input Georeferenced Data to set up acoustic model exists in Slovenia; there is no clear consensus on methods for predictive noise methods for planned projects. We analyzed input data, methods and results of predictive noise methods for two planned industrial projects, both were done independently by two laboratories. We also analyzed the data, methods and results of two interlaboratory collaborative noise models for two existing noise sources (railway and motorway). In cases of predictive noise modelling, the validations of acoustic models were performed by noise measurements of surrounding existing noise sources, but in varying durations. The acoustic characteristics of existing buildings were also not described identically. The planned noise sources were described and digitized differently. Differences in noise assessment results between different laboratories have ranged up to 10 dBA, which considerably exceeds the acceptable uncertainty ranged between 3 to 6 dBA. Contrary to predictive noise modelling, in cases of collaborative noise modelling for two existing noise sources the possibility to perform the validation noise measurements of existing noise sources greatly increased the comparability of noise modelling results. In both cases of collaborative noise modelling for existing motorway and railway, the modelling results of different laboratories were comparable. Differences in noise modeling results between different laboratories were below 5 dBA, which was acceptable uncertainty set up by interlaboratory noise modelling organizer. The lessons learned from the study were: 1) Predictive noise calculation using formulae from International standard SIST ISO 9613-2: 1997 is not an appropriate method to predict noise emissions of planned projects since due to complexity of procedure they are not used strictly, 2) The noise measurements are important tools to minimize noise assessment errors of planned projects and should be in cases of predictive noise modelling performed at least for validation of acoustic model, 3) National guidelines should be made on the appropriate data, methods, noise source digitalization, validation of acoustic model etc. in order to unify the predictive noise models and their results in scope of Environmental Impact Assessments for planned projects.

Keywords: environmental noise assessment, predictive noise modelling, spatial planning, noise measurements, national guidelines

Procedia PDF Downloads 225

Authors: Mustarakh Gelfi, Tiedo Vellinga, Poonam Taneja, Delon Hamonangan

Abstract:

The development of New Priok/Kalibaru as an expansion terminal of the old port has been being done by IPC (Indonesia Port Cooperation) together with the subsidiary company, Port Developer (PT Pengembangan Pelabuhan Indonesia). As stated in the master plan, from 2 phases that had been proposed, phase I has shown its form and even Container Terminal I has been operated in 2016. It was planned principally, the development will be divided into Phase I (2013-2018) consist of 3 container terminals and 2 product terminals and Phase II (2018-2023) consist of 4 container terminals. In fact, the master plan has to be changed due to some major uncertainties which were escaped in prediction. This study is focused on the design scenario of phase II (2035- onwards) to deal with future uncertainty. The outcome is the robust design of phase II of the Kalibaru Terminal taking into account the future changes. Flexibility has to be a major goal in such a large infrastructure project like New Priok in order to deal and manage future uncertainty. The phasing of project needs to be adapted and re-look frequently before being irrelevant to future challenges. One of the frameworks that have been developed by an expert in port planning is Adaptive Port Planning (APP) with scenario-based planning. The idea behind APP framework is the adaptation that might be needed at any moment as an answer to a challenge. It is a continuous procedure that basically aims to increase the lifespan of waterborne transport infrastructure by increasing flexibility in the planning, contracting and design phases. Other methods used in this study are brainstorming with the port authority, desk study, interview and site visit to the real project. The result of the study is expected to be the insight for the port authority of Tanjung Priok over the future look and how it will impact the design of the port. There will be guidelines to do the design in an uncertain environment as well. Solutions of flexibility can be divided into: 1 - Physical solutions, all the items related hard infrastructure in the projects. The common things in this type of solution are using modularity, standardization, multi-functional, shorter and longer design lifetime, reusability, etc. 2 - Non-physical solutions, usually related to the planning processes, decision making and management of the projects. To conclude, APP framework seems quite robust to deal with the problem of designing phase II of New Priok Project for such a long period.

Keywords: Indonesia port, port's design, port planning, scenario-based planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 226

Authors: Ghulam Sohail, Christopher Hawkes

Abstract:

Pakistan has been facing a growing energy crisis for the last decade, and the government is seeking new horizons for increasing oil and gas production to reduce the gap between supply and demand. Recent developments in technologies to produce natural gas from shales at economical rates has unlocked new horizons for hydrocarbon exploration and development throughout the world. Operating companies in the U.S.A. and Canada have been particularly successful at producing shale gas, so comparing against the properties of shale gas reservoirs in these countries is used for an initial assessment of prospective shale gas reservoirs in other parts of the world. In this study, selected source rocks of Pakistan are evaluated for their shale gas potential using analogs selected from various North American shales for which data have been published. Published data for Pakistani shales were compiled, then assessed and supplemented through consultation with industry professionals. Pakistani formations reviewed are the Datta (shaly sandstone), Hangu (sandy shale), Patala (sandy shale), Ranikot (shaly sandstone), Sembar (sandy shale) and Lower Goru (shaly sandstone) formations, all of which are known source rocks in the Indus Basin. For this study, available geological, geochemical, petrophysical and elastic parameters have been investigated and are correlated specifically with the eight most active shale gas plays of the U.S.A., while data for other North American shale gas plays are used for general discussion on prospective Pakistani shales. The results show that the geological and geochemical parameters of all the Pakistani shales reviewed in this work are promising regarding their shale gas. However, more petrophysical and geomechanical data are required before conclusions on economic production from these shales can be made with confidence.

Keywords: Canada shale gas, Indus Basin, Pakistani shales, U.S.A shale gas

Procedia PDF Downloads 181

Authors: Bogdan Walek, Vladimir Bradac, Radim Farana

Abstract:

Distance learning systems offer useful methods of learning and usually contain final course test or another form of test. The paper proposes web application for evaluating tests using expert system in distance learning systems. Proposed web application is appropriate for didactic tests or tests with results for subsequent studying follow-up courses. Web application works with test questions and uses expert system and LFLC tool for test evaluation. After test evaluation the results are visualized and shown to student.

Keywords: distance learning, test, uncertainty, fuzzy, expert system, student

Procedia PDF Downloads 473

Authors: Citra Pertiwi, Muhammad Fikruzzaman Rahawarin

Abstract:

Government of Indonesia had committed to increasing its national defense the budget up to 1,5 percent of GDP. However, the budget increase does not necessarily allocate efficiently and effectively. Using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), the operational units of Indonesian Armed Forces are considered as a proxy to measure those two aspects. The bootstrap technique is being used as well to reduce uncertainty in the estimation. Additionally, technological change is being measured as a nonstationary component. Nearly half of the units are being estimated as fully efficient, with less than a third is considered as effective. Longer and larger sets of data might increase the robustness of the estimation in the future.

Keywords: bootstrap, effectiveness, efficiency, DEA, military, Malmquist, technological change

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: Amir Ghasem Norouzi, Mahdi Zowghi

Abstract:

This study propose a framework based on the fuzzy T-Norms, T-conorm, a novel operator, and multi-expert approach to help organizations build awareness of the critical influential factors on the success of knowledge management (KM) implementation, analysis the failure of knowledge management. This study considers the complex uncertainty concept that is in knowledge management implementing capability (KMIC) and it is used by fuzzy logic for this reason. The contribution of our paper is shown with an empirical study in a nonprofit educational organization evaluation.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, knowledge management, multi expert analysis, consensus oriented average operator

Procedia PDF Downloads 613

Authors: Elsadig Naseraddeen Ahmed Mohamed

Abstract:

In contrast to the uncertainty and complementary principle, it will be shown in the present paper that the probability of the simultaneous occupation event of any definite values of coordinates by any definite values of momentum and energy at any definite instance of time can be described by a binary definite function equivalent to the difference between their numbers of occupation and evacuation epochs up to that time and also equivalent to the number of exchanges between those occupation and evacuation epochs up to that times modulus two, these binary definite quantities can be defined at all point in the time’s real-line so it form a binary signal represent a complete mechanical description of physical reality, the time of these exchanges represent the boundary of occupation and evacuation epochs from which we can calculate these binary signals using the fact that the time of universe events actually extends in the positive and negative of time’s real-line in one direction of extension when these number of exchanges increase, so there exists noninvertible transformation matrix can be defined as the matrix multiplication of invertible rotation matrix and noninvertible scaling matrix change the direction and magnitude of exchange event vector respectively, these noninvertible transformation will be called actual transformation in contrast to information transformations by which we can navigate the universe’s events transformed by actual transformations backward and forward in time’s real-line, so these information transformations will be derived as an elements of a group can be associated to their corresponded actual transformations. The actual and information model of the universe will be derived by assuming the existence of time instance zero before and at which there is no coordinate occupied by any definite values of momentum and energy, and then after that time, the universe begin its expanding in spacetime, this assumption makes the need for the existence of Laplace’s demon who at one moment can measure the positions and momentums of all constituent particle of the universe and then use the law of classical mechanics to predict all future and past of universe’s events, superfluous, we only need for the establishment of our analog to digital converters to sense the binary signals that determine the boundaries of occupation and evacuation epochs of the definite values of coordinates relative to its origin by the definite values of momentum and energy as present events of the universe from them we can predict approximately in high precision it's past and future events.

Keywords: binary-signal mechanics, actual-information model of the universe, actual-transformation, information-transformation, uncertainty principle, Laplace's demon

Procedia PDF Downloads 168

Authors: Amirmozafar Benshams, Khatere Kashmari, Farzad Hatami, Mesbah Saybani

Abstract:

As a part of the transportation network, bridges are one of the most vulnerable structures. In order to investigate the vulnerability and seismic evaluation of bridges performance, identifying of bridge associated with various state of damage is important. Fragility curves provide important data about damage states and performance of bridges against earthquakes. The development of vulnerability information in the form of fragility curves is a widely practiced approach when the information is to be developed accounting for a multitude of uncertain source involved. This paper presents the fragility curve methodologies for bridges and investigates the practice and applications relating to the seismic fragility assessment of bridges.

Keywords: fragility curve, bridge, uncertainty, NLTHA, IDA

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: Johannes Gantner, Michael Held, Matthias Fischer

Abstract:

The refurbishment of the building stock in terms of energy supply and efficiency is one of the major challenges of the German turnaround in energy policy. As the building sector accounts for 40% of Germany’s total energy demand, additional insulation is key for energy efficient refurbished buildings. Nevertheless the energetic benefits often the environmental and economic performances of insulation materials are questioned. The methods Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) as well as Life Cycle Costing (LCC) can form the standardized basis for answering this doubts and more and more become important for material producers due efforts such as Product Environmental Footprint (PEF) or Environmental Product Declarations (EPD). Due to increasing use of LCA and LCC information for decision support the robustness and resilience of the results become crucial especially for support of decision and policy makers. LCA and LCC results are based on respective models which depend on technical parameters like efficiencies, material and energy demand, product output, etc.. Nevertheless, the influence of parameter uncertainties on lifecycle results are usually not considered or just studied superficially. Anyhow the effect of parameter uncertainties cannot be neglected. Based on the example of an exterior wall the overall lifecycle results are varying by a magnitude of more than three. As a result simple best case worst case analyses used in practice are not sufficient. These analyses allow for a first rude view on the results but are not taking effects into account such as error propagation. Thereby LCA practitioners cannot provide further guidance for decision makers. Probabilistic analyses enable LCA practitioners to gain deeper understanding of the LCA and LCC results and provide a better decision support. Within this study, the environmental and economic impacts of an exterior wall system over its whole lifecycle are illustrated, and the effect of different uncertainty analysis on the interpretation in terms of resilience and robustness are shown. Hereby the approaches of error propagation and Monte Carlo Simulations are applied and combined with statistical methods in order to allow for a deeper understanding and interpretation. All in all this study emphasis the need for a deeper and more detailed probabilistic evaluation based on statistical methods. Just by this, misleading interpretations can be avoided, and the results can be used for resilient and robust decisions.

Keywords: uncertainty, life cycle assessment, life cycle costing, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: Sunny Nwakanma

Abstract:

The emergence of the new economy has created a new world order for skill acquisition, economic activities and employment. It has dramatically changed the way we live, learn, work and even think about work. It has also created new opportunities as well as challenges and uncertainty. This paper will not only demystify the new economy and present its instrumentality in the acceleration of skill acquisition in technical education, but will also highlight industrial and occupational changes brought about by the synergy between information and communication technology revolution and the global economic system. It advocates among other things, the use of information and communication technology mediated instruction in technical education as it provides the flexibility to meet diverse learners’ need anytime and anywhere and facilitate skill acquisition.

Keywords: new economy, technical education, skill acquisition, information and communication technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Everard van Kemenade

Abstract:

Many quality improvement activities are planned. Leaders are strongly involved in missions, visions and strategic planning. They use, consciously or unconsciously, the PDCA-cycle, also know as the Deming cycle. After the planning, the plans are carried out and the results or effects are measured. If the results show that the goals in the plan have not been achieved, adjustments are made in the next plan or in the execution of the processes. Then, the cycle is run through again. Traditionally, the PDCA-cycle is advocated as a means to an end. However, PDCA is especially fit for planned, ordered, certain contexts. It fits with the empirical and referential quality paradigm. For uncertain, unordered, unplanned processes, something else might be needed instead of Plan-Do-Check-Act. Due to the complexity of our society, the influence of the context, and the uncertainty in our world nowadays, not every activity can be planned anymore. At the same time organisations need to be more innovative than ever. That provides leaders with ‘wicked tendencies’. However, that raises the question how one can innovate without being able to plan? Complexity science studies the interactions of a diverse group of agents that bring about change in times of uncertainty, e.g. when radical innovation is co-created. This process is called emergence. This research study explores the role of leadership in the emergence paradigm. Aim of the article is to study the way that leadership can support the emergence of innovation in a complex context. First, clarity is given on the concepts used in the research question: complexity, emergence, innovation and leadership. Thereafter a literature search is conducted to answer the research question. The topics ‘emergent leadership’ or ‘complexity leadership’ are chosen for an exploratory search in Google and Google Scholar using the berry picking method. Exclusion criterion is emergence in other disciplines than organizational development or in the meaning of ‘arising’. The literature search conducted gave 45 hits. Twenty-seven articles were excluded after reading the title and abstract because they did not research the topic of emergent leadership and complexity. After reading the remaining articles as a whole one more was excluded because the article used emergent in the limited meaning of ‗arising‘ and eight more were excluded because the topic did not match the research question of this article. That brings the total of the search to 17 articles. The useful conclusions from the articles are merged and grouped together under overarching topics, using thematic analysis. The findings are that 5 topics prevail when looking at possibilities for leadership to facilitate innovation: enabling, sharing values, dreaming, interacting, context sensitivity and adaptivity. Together they form In Dutch the acronym Medusa.

Keywords: complexity science, emergence, leadership in the emergence paradigm, innovation, the Medusa principles

Procedia PDF Downloads 12

Authors: Hee Joon Lee

Abstract:

There are many difficulties in measuring a small flow rate of an order of milli grams per minute (LPM) or less using a conventional flowmeter. Therefore, a flow meter with minimal loss and based on a new concept was designed as part of this paper. A chamber was manufactured with a level transmitter and an on-off control valve. When the level of the collected condensed water reaches the top of the chamber, the valve opens to allow the collected water to drain back into the tank. To allow the water to continue to drain when the signal is lost, the valve is held open for a few seconds by a time delay switch and then closed. After an examination, the condensing flow rate was successfully measured with the uncertainty of ±5.7% of the full scale for the chamber.

Keywords: chamber, condensation, flow meter, milli-grams

Procedia PDF Downloads 272

Authors: Noureddine Henka, Sami Tazi, Mohamad Assaad

Abstract:

The electrical grid is a highly intricate system designed to transfer electricity from production areas to consumption areas. The Transmission System Operator (TSO) is responsible for ensuring the efficient distribution of electricity and maintaining the grid's safety and quality. However, due to the increasing integration of intermittent renewable energy sources, there is a growing level of uncertainty, which requires a faster responsive approach. A potential solution involves the use of electrical segmentation, which involves creating coherence zones where electrical disturbances mainly remain within the zone. Indeed, by means of coherent electrical zones, it becomes possible to focus solely on the sub-zone, reducing the range of possibilities and aiding in managing uncertainty. It allows faster execution of operational processes and easier learning for supervised machine learning algorithms. Electrical segmentation can be applied to various applications, such as electrical control, minimizing electrical loss, and ensuring voltage stability. Since the electrical grid can be modeled as a graph, where the vertices represent electrical buses and the edges represent electrical lines, identifying coherent electrical zones can be seen as a clustering task on graphs, generally called community detection. Nevertheless, a critical criterion for the zones is their ability to remain resilient to the electrical evolution of the grid over time. This evolution is due to the constant changes in electricity generation and consumption, which are reflected in graph structure variations as well as line flow changes. One approach to creating a resilient segmentation is to design robust zones under various circumstances. This issue can be represented through a multiplex graph, where each layer represents a specific situation that may arise on the grid. Consequently, resilient segmentation can be achieved by conducting community detection on this multiplex graph. The multiplex graph is composed of multiple graphs, and all the layers share the same set of vertices. Our proposal involves a model that utilizes a unified representation to compute a flattening of all layers. This unified situation can be penalized to obtain (K) connected components representing the robust electrical segmentation clusters. We compare our robust segmentation to the segmentation based on a single reference situation. The robust segmentation proves its relevance by producing clusters with high intra-electrical perturbation and low variance of electrical perturbation. We saw through the experiences when robust electrical segmentation has a benefit and in which context.

Keywords: community detection, electrical segmentation, multiplex graph, power grid

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: Ming-Hong Chen

Abstract:

In the study, the mechanical and financial feasibility for the compressed air energy storage (CAES) system in the porous media reservoir in Taiwan is evaluated. In 2035, Taiwan aims to install 16.7 GW of wind power and 40 GW of photovoltaic (PV) capacity. However, renewable energy sources often generate more electricity than needed, particularly during winter. Consequently, Taiwan requires long-term, large-scale energy storage systems to ensure the security and stability of its power grid. Currently, the primary large-scale energy storage options are Pumped Hydro Storage (PHS) and Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES). Taiwan has not ventured into CAES-related technologies due to geological and cost constraints. However, with the imperative of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, there's a substantial need for the development of a considerable amount of renewable energy. PHS has matured, boasting an overall installed capacity of 4.68 GW. CAES, presenting a similar scale and power generation duration to PHS, is now under consideration. Taiwan's geological composition, being a porous medium unlike salt caves, introduces flow field resistance affecting gas injection and extraction. This study employs a program analysis model to establish the system performance analysis capabilities of CAES. The finite volume model is then used to assess the impact of porous media, and the findings are fed back into the system performance analysis for correction. Subsequently, the financial implications are calculated and compared with existing literature. For Taiwan, the strategic development of CAES technology is crucial, not only for meeting energy needs but also for decentralizing energy allocation, a feature of great significance in regions lacking alternative natural resources.

Keywords: compressed-air energy storage, efficiency, porous media, financial feasibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 56