Search results for: climate change

Authors: H. Dakhlaoui, D. Ruelland, Y. Tramblay, Z. Bargaoui

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To evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources at the catchment scale, not only future projections of climate are necessary but also robust rainfall-runoff models that are able to be fairly reliable under changing climate conditions. This study aims at assessing the robustness of three conceptual rainfall-runoff models (GR4j, HBV and IHACRES) on five basins in Northern Tunisia under long-term climate variability. Their robustness was evaluated according to a differential split sample test based on a climate classification of the observation period regarding simultaneously precipitation and temperature conditions. The studied catchments are situated in a region where climate change is likely to have significant impacts on runoff and they already suffer from scarcity of water resources. They cover the main hydrographical basins of Northern Tunisia (High Medjerda, Zouaraâ, Ichkeul and Cap bon), which produce the majority of surface water resources in Tunisia. The streamflow regime of the basins can be considered as natural since these basins are located upstream from storage-dams and in areas where withdrawals are negligible. A 30-year common period (1970‒2000) was considered to capture a large spread of hydro-climatic conditions. The calibration was based on the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) criterion, while the evaluation of model transferability is performed according to the Nash-Suttfliff efficiency criterion and volume error. The three hydrological models were shown to have similar behaviour under climate variability. Models prove a better ability to simulate the runoff pattern when transferred toward wetter periods compared to the case when transferred to drier periods. The limits of transferability are beyond -20% of precipitation and +1.5 °C of temperature in comparison with the calibration period. The deterioration of model robustness could in part be explained by the climate dependency of some parameters.

Keywords: rainfall-runoff modelling, hydro-climate variability, model robustness, uncertainty, Tunisia

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Authors: Aziza S. Al Adhoobi, Amna Al Ruheili, Saud M. Al Jufaili

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This study investigates the potential effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of two Aphaniops species (Teleostei: Aphaniidae) found in the Oman Mountains and the Southwestern Arabian Coast. Aphaniops kruppi, an endemic species, is found in various water bodies such as wadis, springs, aflaj, spring-fed streams, and some coastal backwaters. Aphaniops stoliczkanus, on the other hand, inhabits brackish and freshwater habitats, particularly in the lower parts of wadies and aflaj, and exhibits euryhaline characteristics. Using Maximum Entropy Modeling (MaxEnt) in conjunction with ArcGIS (10.8.2) and CHELSA bioclimatic variables, topographic indices, and other pertinent environmental factors, the study modeled the potential impacts of climate change based on three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 7.0, 8.5) for the periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The model demonstrated exceptional predictive accuracy, achieving AUC values of 0.992 for A. kruppi and 0.983 for A. stoliczkanus. For A. kruppi, the most influential variables were the mean monthly climate moisture index (Cmi_m), the mean diurnal range (Bio2), and the sediment transport index (STI), accounting for 39.9%, 18.3%, and 8.4%, respectively. As for A. stoliczkanus, the key variables were the sediment transport index (STI), stream power index (SPI), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19), contributing 31%, 20.2%, and 13.3%, respectively. A. kruppi showed an increase in habitat suitability, especially in low and medium suitability areas. By 2071-2100, high suitability areas increased slightly by 0.05% under RCP 2.6, but declined by -0.02% and -0.04% under RCP 7.0 and 8.5, respectively. A. stoliczkanus exhibited a broader range of responses. Under RCP 2.6, all suitability categories increased by 2071-2100, with high suitability areas increasing by 0.01%. However, low and medium suitability areas showed mixed trends under RCP 7.0 and 8.5, with declines of -0.17% and -0.16%, respectively. The study highlights that climatic and topographical factors significantly influence the habitat suitability of Aphaniops species in Oman. Therefore, species-specific conservation strategies are crucial to address the impacts of climate change.

Keywords: Aphaniops kruppi, Aphaniops stoliczkanus, Climate change, Habitat suitability, MaxEnt

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Authors: Pascal U. Onu, Doris A. Ogbang, Emmanuel Okechukwu.

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Background: Plastics in their various forms have become ubiquitous in a very short space of time. This ubiquitous nature has plagued and daunted nations globally, overwhelming their ability to manage the environmental impact, especially its linkages to climate change. This has mobilized nations globally and triggered debates on the best approaches to ensure sustainability in terms of its production and utilization, as total elimination seems unrealistic. Objective: This study undertook to understand the pattern of plastic waste management, and its pollution awareness levels by the residents of the study area. Methods: Data were obtained through questionnaires designed specifically for plastic waste and qualitatively via journals and articles. Simple descriptive survey techniques with a survey population size of 300 respondents using kobo collect were employed. Results: Analysis based on disaggregated data indicated a proportionate distribution among male and female respondents (53% male and 47% female, respectively). Overall awareness levels on plastic waste's contribution to climate change, compared to its environmental impact, are reflective of a dire need for increased efforts in strengthening awareness creation, especially across gender populations and religious backgrounds. Drainage blockage topped the ranks among common problems caused by plastic waste within the area. Various plastic waste disposal methods were ranked, while pro-environmental measures for reducing the waste menace showed more willingness from males at 52%. Conclusion: These outcomes are instructive and suggest the need for renewed and increased awareness/education on the nexus of plastic pollution to climate change and also appropriate synergies/collaboration between government, private sector, and local communities, especially in the area of recycling to improve sustainability in plastic waste management.

Keywords: plastic waste, KAP, climate change, Nigeria

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Authors: Bikram Jung Kunwar

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Forests have central roles in climate change. The conservation of forests sequestrates the carbon from the atmosphere and also regulates the carbon cycle. However, knowingly and unknowingly the world’s forests were deforested and degraded annually at the rate of 0.18% and emitted the carbon to the atmosphere. The IPCC reports claimed that the deforestation and forest degradation accounts 1/5th of total carbon emission, which is second position after fossil fuels. Since 1.6 billion people depend on varying degree on forests for their daily livelihood, not all deforestation are undesirable. Therefore, to conserve the forests and find the livelihood opportunities for forest surrounding people is prerequisites to address the climate change problems especially in developing countries, and also a growing concern to the forestry sector researchers, planners and policy makers. The study examines the role of community based forest management in carbon mitigation and adaptation taking the examples of Nepal’s community forestry program. In the program, the government hands over a part of national forests to the local communities with sole forest management authorities. However, the government itself retained the ownership rights of forestland. Local communities organized through a local institution called Community Forest User Group (CFUG) managed the forests. They also formed an operational plan with technical prescriptions and a constitution with forest management rules and regulations. The implementation results showed that the CFUGs are not only found effective to organize the local people and construct a local institution to forest conservation and management activities, but also they are able to collect a community fund from the sale of forest products and carried out various community development activities. These development activities have decisive roles to improve the livelihood of forest surrounding people and eventually to address the climate change problems.

Keywords: climate change, community forestry, local institution, Nepal

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Authors: Tulsi Ram Bhusal

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Global climate change is known to have a huge impact on agriculture due to changing in rainfall pattern and elevated air temperature that lead to drought and/or flooding. This systematic study has focused on agriculture in Nepal. The study has shown that the trend of current climatic change is affecting rice production, while the farmers with technological access have tried to adapt to the changing conditions at their level. There is insufficient intervention from the government side in terms of policies and schemes. The lack of sufficient funds is one of the significant reasons in terms of governance. The climatic trends and the way it is affecting the annual riceyieldinNepal has been discussed in this study thoroughly. This study has reviewed published studies and ferred important points regarding the Nepal’s status on rice production. Mainly due to the increasing graph of average temperature and other physical conditions needed for the proper cultivation of ricearechanging due to which there is significant dropofannual rice production. Although from corners of the country, many farmers have attempted to adapt the methods of cultivation to the changing climatic conditions, lack of access to technologies, and fund allocation from the governmental level, it is difficult for the mtobringchanges in rice production by the crown without any institutional help. This systematic study effectively presents the magnitude of the impact on rice cultivation due to climatic changes inrecenttimesinNepal. This review aims to bring the current scenarioofNepal’sricefarming, and it impacts due to changing climate, which can subsequently contribute in devising plans for proper governance, formulating policies, and allocation of funds for the betterment.

Keywords: rice, climate change, rice production, nepal, agriculture

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Authors: Zohra Mhedhbi, Meheret Gaston, Sinda Haoues-Jouve, Julia Hidalgo, Pierre Mazzega

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In the current context of climate change, supporting national and local stakeholders to make climate-smart decisions is necessary but still underdeveloped in many countries. To overcome this problem, the Global Frameworks for Climate Services (GFCS), implemented under the aegis of the United Nations in 2012, has initiated many programs in different countries. The GFCS contributes to the development of Climate Services, an instrument based on the production and transfer of scientific climate knowledge for specific users such as citizens, urban planning actors, or agricultural professionals. As cities concentrate on economic, social and environmental issues that make them more vulnerable to climate change, the New Urban Agenda (NUA), adopted at Habitat III in October 2016, highlights the importance of paying particular attention to disaster risk management, climate and environmental sustainability and urban resilience. In order to support the implementation of the NUA, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has identified the urban dimension as one of its priorities and has proposed a new tool, the Integrated Urban Services (IUS), for more sustainable and resilient cities. In the southern countries, there’s a lack of development of climate services, which can be partially explained by problems related to their economic financing. In addition, it is often difficult to make climate change a priority in urban planning, given the more traditional urban challenges these countries face, such as massive poverty, high population growth, etc. Climate services and Integrated Urban Services, particularly in African cities, are expected to contribute to the sustainable development of cities. These tools will help promoting the acquisition of meteorological and socio-ecological data on their transformations, encouraging coordination between national or local institutions providing various sectoral urban services, and should contribute to the achievement of the objectives defined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) or the Paris Agreement, and the Sustainable Development Goals. To assess the state of the art on these various points, the Web of Science metadatabase is queried. With a query combining the keywords "climate*" and "urban*", more than 24,000 articles are identified, source of more than 40,000 distinct keywords (but including synonyms and acronyms) which finely mesh the conceptual field of research. The occurrence of one or more names of the 514 African cities of more than 100,000 inhabitants or countries, reduces this base to a smaller corpus of about 1410 articles (2990 keywords). 41 countries and 136 African cities are cited. The lexicometric analysis of the metadata of the articles and the analysis of the structural indicators (various centralities) of the networks induced by the co-occurrence of expressions related more specifically to climate services show the development potential of these services, identify the gaps which remain to be filled for their implementation and allow to compare the diversity of national and regional situations with regard to these services.

Keywords: African cities, climate change, climate services, integrated urban services, lexicometry, networks, urban planning, web of science

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Authors: Andrew Hall, Paul Clarkson

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Climate change is predicted to increase the number of extreme weather events intensifying the strain on Railway Earthworks. This paper describes the use of Distributed Rayleigh Sensing to monitor low frequency activity on a vulnerable earthworks sectionprone to landslides alongside a railway line in Northern Spain. The vulnerable slope is instrumented with conventional slope stability sensors allowing an assessment to be conducted of the application of Distributed Rayleigh Sensing as an earthwork condition monitoring tool to enhance the resilience of railway networks.

Keywords: condition monitoring, railway earthworks, distributed rayleigh sensing, climate change

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Authors: Oussama Fertaq

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This paper investigates the latest advancements in CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) technologies, which are vital for addressing the growing challenge of climate change. The study focuses on multiple techniques for CO₂ capture, including chemical absorption, membrane separation, and adsorption, analyzing their efficiency, scalability, and environmental impact. The research further explores geological storage options such as deep saline aquifers and depleted oil fields, providing insights into the challenges and opportunities presented by each method. This paper emphasizes the importance of integrating CCS with existing industrial processes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions effectively. It also discusses the economic and policy frameworks required to promote wider adoption of CCS technologies. The findings of this study offer a comprehensive view of the potential of CCS in achieving global climate goals, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors such as energy and manufacturing.

Keywords: CO₂ capture, carbon storage, climate change mitigation, carbon sequestration, environmental sustainability

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Authors: Ying Ge

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Wetlands are one of the essential types of ecosystems in the world. They are of great value to human society thanks to their special ecosystem functions and services, such as protecting biodiversity, adjusting hydrology and climate, providing essential habitats and, products and tourism resources. However, wetlands worldwide are degrading severely due to climate change, accelerated urbanization, and rapid economic development. Both nature and human factors drive wetland change, and the influences are variable from wetland types. Thus, the objectives of this study were to (1) to compare the changes in China’s wetland area during the three decades rapid growth period (1978-2008); (2) to analyze the effects of social economy and environmental factors on wetlands change (area loss and change of wetland types) in China during the high-speed economic development. The socio-economic influencing factors include population, income, education, development of agriculture, industry, infrastructure, wastewater amount, etc. Several statistical methods (canonical correlation analysis, principal component analysis, and regression analysis) were employed to analyze the relationship between socio-economic indicators and wetland area change. This study will determine the relevant driving socio-economic factors on wetland changes, which is of great significance for wetland protection and management.

Keywords: socioeconomic effects, China, wetland change, wetland type

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Authors: Umesh Kumar Soni, Suresh Kumar Soni, S. R. Awasthi

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Worldwide biggest difficulties are climate change, future availability of fossil fuels, and economical feasibility of renewable energy. They force us to use to a greater extent renewable energy and develop suitable hybrid renewable systems. Building heating/cooling consumes significant amount of energy. It can be conserved by use of proper heating/cooling techniques. This paper reviews and critically analyzes various active, passive and hybrid heating/cooling techniques used in green buildings.

Keywords: natural ventilation, energy conservation, hybrid ventilation techniques, climate change

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Authors: Luis Enrique Escalante Ochoa

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This paper attempts to assess the impacts of Climate change (CC) on inequalities in the labour market. CC will have the most serious effects on some vulnerable economic sectors, such as agriculture, livestock or tourism, but also on the most vulnerable population groups. The objective of this research is to evaluate the impact of CC on the labour market and particularly on Mexican women. Influential documents such as the synthesis reports produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 and 2014 revived a global effort to counteract the effects of CC, called for an analysis of the impacts on vulnerable socio-economic groups and on economic activities, and for the development of decision-making tools to enable policy and other decisions based on the complexity of the world in relation to climate change, taking into account socio-economic attributes. We follow up this suggestion and determine the impact of CC on vulnerable populations in the Mexican labour market, taking into account two attributes (gender and level of qualification of workers). Most studies have focused on the effects of CC on the agricultural sector, as it is considered a highly vulnerable economic sector to the effects of climate variability. This research seeks to contribute to the existing literature taking into account, in addition to the agricultural sector, other sectors such as tourism, water availability, and energy that are of vital importance to the Mexican economy. Likewise, the effects of climate change will be extended to the labour market and specifically to women who in some cases have been left out. The studies are sceptical about the impact of CC on the female labour market because of the perverse effects on women's domestic work, which are too often omitted from analyses. This work will contribute to the literature by integrating domestic work, which in the case of Mexico is much higher among women than among men (80.9% vs. 19.1%), according to the 2009 time use survey. This study is relevant since it will allow us to analyse impacts of climate change not only in the labour market of the formal economy, but also in the non-market sphere. Likewise, we consider that including the gender dimension is valid for the Mexican economy as it is a country with high degrees of gender inequality in the labour market. In the OECD economic study for Mexico (2017), the low labour participation of Mexican women is highlighted. Although participation has increased substantially in recent years (from 36% in 1990 to 47% in 2017), it remains low compared to the OECD average where women participate around 70% of the labour market. According to Mexico's 2009 time use survey, domestic work represents about 13% of the total time available. Understanding the interdependence between the market and non-market spheres, and the gender division of labour within them is the necessary premise for any economic analysis aimed at promoting gender equality and inclusive growth.

Keywords: climate change, labour market, domestic work, rural sector

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Authors: Chakraborty Sudipta, A. R. Kambekar, Sarma Arnab

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Sea-level rise being one of the most important impacts of anthropogenic induced climate change resulting from global warming and melting of icebergs at Arctic and Antarctic, the investigations done by various researchers both on Indian Coast and elsewhere during the last decade has been reviewed in this paper. The paper aims to ascertain the propensity of consistency of different suggested methods to predict the near-accurate future sea level rise along the coast of Mumbai. Case studies at East Coast, Southern Tip and West and South West coast of India have been reviewed. Coastal Vulnerability Index of several important international places has been compared, which matched with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecasts. The application of Geographic Information System mapping, use of remote sensing technology, both Multi Spectral Scanner and Thematic Mapping data from Landsat classified through Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis Technique for arriving at high, moderate and low Coastal Vulnerability Index at various important coastal cities have been observed. Instead of data driven, hindcast based forecast for Significant Wave Height, additional impact of sea level rise has been suggested. Efficacy and limitations of numerical methods vis-à-vis Artificial Neural Network has been assessed, importance of Root Mean Square error on numerical results is mentioned. Comparing between various computerized methods on forecast results obtained from MIKE 21 has been opined to be more reliable than Delft 3D model.

Keywords: climate change, Coastal Vulnerability Index, global warming, sea level rise

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Authors: Brooklyn Rushton, Michelle Rutty, Natalie Knowles, Daniel Scott

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As people are increasingly on the search for extraordinary experiences and connections with nature, adventure tourism is experiencing significant growth and providing tourists with life-changing experiences. Unlike built attraction-based tourism, adventure tourism relies entirely on natural heritage, which leaves communities dependent on adventure tourism extremely vulnerable to environmental and climatic changes. A growing body of evidence suggests that global climate change will influence the future of adventure tourism and mountain outdoor recreation opportunities on a global scale. Across Canada, more specifically, climate change is broadly anticipated to present risks for winter-snow sports, while opportunities are anticipated to arise for green season activities. These broad seasonal shifts do not account for the indirect impacts of climate change on adventure tourism, such as the cost of adaptation or the increase of natural hazards and the associated likelihood of accidents. While some research has examined the impact of climate change on natural environments that adventure tourism relies on, a very small body of research has specifically focused on guides’ perspectives or included hard adventure tourism activities. The guiding industry is unique, as guides are trained through an elegant blend of art and science to make decisions based on experience, observation, and intuition. While quantitative research can monitor change in natural environments, guides local knowledge can provide eye-witness accounts and outline what environmental changes mean for the future sustainability of adventure tourism. This research will capture the extensive knowledge of mountain guides to better understand the implications of climate change for mountain adventure and potential adaptive responses for the adventure tourism industry. This study uses a structured online survey with open and close-ended questions that will be administered using Qualtrics (an online survey platform). This survey is disseminated to current members of the Association of Canadian Mountain Guides (ACMG). Participation in this study will be exclusive to members of the ACMG operating in the outdoor guiding streams. The 25 survey questions are organized into four sections: demographic and professional operation (9 questions), physical change (4 questions), climate change perception (6 questions), and climate change adaptation (6 questions). How mountain guides perceive and respond to climate change is important knowledge for the future of the expanding adventure tourism industry. Results from this study are expected to provide important information to mountain destinations on climate change vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Expected results of this study include guides insight into: (1) experience-safety relevant observed physical changes in guided regions (i.e. glacial coverage, permafrost coverage, precipitation, temperature, and slope instability) (2) changes in hazards within the guiding environment (i.e. avalanches, rockfall, icefall, forest fires, flooding, and extreme weather events), (3) existing and potential adaptation strategies, and (4) key information and other barriers for adaptation. By gaining insight from the knowledge of mountain guides, this research can help the tourism industry at large understand climate risk and create adaptation strategies to ensure the resiliency of the adventure tourism industry.

Keywords: adventure tourism, climate change, environmental change, mountain hazards

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Authors: Rodrigo Buaiz Boabaid

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Tokenization of Blue Bonds is an emerging Green Finance tool that has the potential to scale Blue Carbon Projects to fight climate change. This innovative solution has a huge potential to democratize the green finance market and catalyze innovations in the climate change finance sector. Switzerland has emerged as a leader in the Green Finance space and is well-positioned to drive the adoption of Tokenization of Blue & Green Bonds. This unique approach has the potential to unlock new sources of capital and enable global investors to participate in the financing of sustainable blue carbon projects. By leveraging the power of blockchain technology, Tokenization of Blue Bonds can provide greater transparency, efficiency, and security in the investment process while also reducing transaction costs. Investments are in line with the highest regulations and designed according to the stringent legal framework and compliance standards set by Switzerland. The potential benefits of Tokenization of Blue Bonds are significant and could transform the way that sustainable projects are financed. By unlocking new sources of capital, this approach has the potential to accelerate the deployment of Blue Carbon projects and create new opportunities for investors to participate in the fight against climate change.

Keywords: blue bonds, blue carbon, tokenization, green finance

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Authors: Zongho Kom, Nthaduleni S. Nethengwe

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From generations to generations, traditional farming systems have supported indigenous populations across the globe. In rural areas where communities primarily depend on farming activity for their livelihood, traditional farming has long been the main source of livelihood. This study seeks to examine the traditional agricultural techniques and agrarian resilient methods to adapt to climate change employed by smallholder farmers in Limpopo Province. The study used participatory appraisal for primary data gathering and was further complemented by qualitative and quantitative techniques. Data for this study were gathered through focus groups, questionnaires, and semi-structured interviews. A sample of 300 Indigenous farmers was chosen for the three survey sites. The results showed that to increase household food security and adapt to climate change, local farmers rely on using indigenous farming techniques. The findings indicated that traditional practices of crop productivity can be increased and climate change stock effects lessened by intercropping, crop rotation, cover crops, traditional organic composting, integrated crop-animal farming, indigenous ploughing, and rainwater harvesting. The significance of these findings lies in their potential to guide the development and execution of suitable resilient initiatives that adapt to shifts in rural landscapes, agriculture, and management. The study illustrates how important indigenous knowledge is to rural communities' agricultural industries. Additionally, it offers proof that indigenous knowledge should be viewed as a cooperative idea that supports resilience tactics and nature-based solutions that have helped rural communities endure.

Keywords: traditional farming strategies, limpopo province, climate change, smallholder farmer, rainwater harvesting

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Authors: Rima Almalla

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The purpose of the research project in Geography is to evaluate the applicability of urban green infrastructure approach in Finnish climate. The key focus will be on the operation and efficiency of green infrastructure on urban stormwater management. Green infrastructure approach refers to the employment of sufficient green covers as a modern and smart environmental solution to improve the quality of urban environments. Green infrastructure provides a wide variety of micro-scale ecosystem services, such as stormwater runoff management, regulation of extreme air temperatures, reduction of energy consumption, plus a variety of social benefits and human health and wellbeing. However, the cold climate of Finland with seasonal ground frost, snow cover and relatively short growing season bring about questions of whether green infrastructure works as efficiently as expected. To tackle this question, green infrastructure solutions will be studied and analyzed with manifold methods: stakeholder perspectives regarding existing and planned GI solutions will be collected by web based questionnaires, semi structured interviews and group discussions, and analyzed in both qualitative and quantitative methods. Targeted empirical field campaigns will be conducted on selected sites. A systematic literature review with global perspective will support the analyses. The findings will be collected, compiled and analyzed using geographic information systems (GIS). The findings of the research will improve our understanding of the functioning of green infrastructure in the Finnish environment in urban stormwater management, as a landscape element for citizens’ wellbeing, and in climate change mitigation and adaptation. The acquired information will be shared with stakeholders in interactive co-design workshops. As green covers have great demand and potential globally, the conclusions will have relevance in other cool climate regions and may support Finnish business in green infrastructure sector.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, climate change, green infrastructure, stormwater

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Authors: Radha Krishan, Deepak Khare, Bhaskar R. Nikam, Ayush Chandrakar

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Every irrigation project is planned considering long-term historical climatic conditions; however, the prompt climatic shift and change has come out with such circumstances which were inconceivable in the past. Considering this fact, scrutiny of rainfall and temperature trend has been carried out over the command area of Eastern Ganga Canal project for pre-climate shift period and post-climate shift periods in the present study. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen’s methods have been applied to study the trends in annual rainfall, seasonal rainfall, annual rainy day, monsoonal rainy days, average annual temperature and seasonal temperature. The results showed decreasing trend of 48.11 to 42.17 mm/decade in annual rainfall and 79.78 tSo 49.67 mm/decade in monsoon rainfall in pre-climate to post-climate shift periods, respectively. The decreasing trend of 1 to 4 days/decade has been observed in annual rainy days from pre-climate to post-climate shift period. Trends in temperature revealed that there were significant decreasing trends in annual (-0.03 ºC/yr), Kharif (-0.02 ºC/yr), Rabi (-0.04 ºC/yr) and summer (-0.02 ºC/yr) season temperature during pre-climate shift period, whereas the significant increasing trend (0.02 ºC/yr) has been observed in all the four parameters during post climate shift period. These results will help project managers in understanding the climate shift and lead them to develop alternative water management strategies.

Keywords: climate shift, rainfall trend, temperature trend, Mann-Kendall test, sen slope estimator, eastern Ganga canal command

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Authors: Alma Mendoza-Ponce, Rogelio Corona-Núñez, Florian Kraxner

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Mexico is a megadiverse country and it has nearly halved its natural vegetation in the last century due to agricultural and livestock expansion. Impacts of land use cover change and climate change are unevenly distributed and spatial prioritization to minimize the affectations on biodiversity is crucial. Global and national efforts for prioritizing biodiversity conservation show that ~33% to 45% of Mexico should be protected. The width of these targets makes difficult to lead resources. We use a framework based on vulnerability and irreplaceability to prioritize conservation efforts in Mexico. Vulnerability considered exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity under two scenarios (business as usual, BAU based, on the SSP2 and RCP 4.5 and a Green scenario, based on the SSP1 and the RCP 2.6). Exposure to land use is the magnitude of change from natural vegetation to anthropogenic covers while exposure to climate change is the difference between current and future values for both scenarios. Sensitivity was considered as the number of endemic species of terrestrial vertebrates which are critically endangered and endangered. Adaptive capacity is used as the ration between the percentage of converted area (natural to anthropogenic) and the percentage of protected area at municipality level. The results suggest that by 2050, between 11.6 and 13.9% of Mexico show vulnerability ≥ 50%, and by 2070, between 12.0 and 14.8%, in the Green and BAU scenario, respectively. From an ecosystem perspective cloud forests, followed by tropical dry forests, natural grasslands and temperate forests will be the most vulnerable (≥ 50%). Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates; 62% of the endemic amphibians are critically endangered or endangered while 39%, 12% and 9% of the mammals, birds, and reptiles, respectively. However, the distribution of these amphibians counts for only 3.3% of the country, while mammals, birds, and reptiles in these categories represent 10%, 16% and 29% of Mexico. There are 5 municipalities out of the 2,457 that Mexico has that represent 31% of the most vulnerable areas (70%).These municipalities account for 0.05% of Mexico. This multiscale approach can be used to address resources to conservation targets as ecosystems, municipalities or species considering land use cover change, climate change and biodiversity uniqueness.

Keywords: biodiversity, climate change, land use change, Mexico, vulnerability

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Authors: Khan R. Rahaman, Quazi K. Hassan

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Global changes in climate, environment, economies, populations, governments, institutions, and cultures converge in localities. Changes at a local scale, in turn, contribute to global changes as well as being affected by them. Our hypothesis is built on a consideration that temperature does vary at local level (i.e., termed as local warming) in comparison to the predicted models at the regional and/or global scale. To date, the bulk of the research relating local places to global climate change has been top-down, from the global toward the local, concentrating on methods of impact analysis that use as a starting point climate change scenarios derived from global models, even though these have little regional or local specificity. Thus, our focus is to understand such trends over the southern Alberta, which will enable decision makers, scientists, researcher community, and local people to adapt their policies based on local level temperature variations and to act accordingly. Specific objectives in this study are: (i) to understand the local warming (temperature in particular) trend in context of temperature normal during the period 1961-2010 at point locations using meteorological data; (ii) to validate the data by using specific yearly data, and (iii) to delineate the spatial extent of the local warming trends and understanding influential factors to adopt situation by local governments. Existing data has brought the evidence of such changes and future research emphasis will be given to validate this hypothesis based on remotely sensed data (i.e. MODIS product by NASA).

Keywords: local warming, climate change, urban area, Alberta, Canada

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Authors: Fikiru Temesgen Gelata

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Food security, adaptation, and climate change mitigation are all problems that can be resolved simultaneously with Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA). This study examines determinants of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices among smallholder farmers, aiming to understand the factors guiding adoption decisions and evaluate the impact of CSA on smallholder farmer income in the study areas. For this study, three-stage sampling techniques were applied to select 230 smallholders randomly. Mann-Kendal test and multinomial endogenous switching regression model were used to analyze trends of decrease or increase within long-term temporal data and the impact of CSA on the smallholder farmer income, respectively. Findings revealed education level, household size, land ownership, off-farm income, climate information, and contact with extension agents found to be highly adopted CSA practices. On the contrary, erosion exerted a detrimental impact on all the agricultural practices examined within the study region. Various factors such as farming methods, the size of farms, proximity to irrigated farmlands, availability of extension services, distance to market hubs, and access to weather forecasts were recognized as key determinants influencing the adoption of CSA practices. The multinomial endogenous switching regression model (MESR) revealed that joint adoption of crop rotation and soil and water conservation practices significantly increased farm income by 1,107,245 ETB. The study recommends that counties and governments should prioritize addressing climate change in their development agendas to increase the adoption of climate-smart farming techniques.

Keywords: climate-smart practices, food security, Oincome, MERM, Ethiopia

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Authors: Arragaw Alemayehu, Woldeamlak Bewket

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The aim of this study was to understand the influence of current climate variability on crop production in the central highlands of Ethiopia. We used monthly rainfall and temperature data from 132 points each representing a pixel of 10×10 km. The data are reconstructions based on station records and meteorological satellite observations. Production data of the five major crops in the area were collected from the Central Statistical Agency for the period 2004-2013 and for the main cropping season, locally known as Meher. The production data are at the Enumeration Area (EA ) level and hence the best available dataset on crop production. The results show statistically significant decreasing trends in March–May (Belg) rainfall in the area. However, June – September (Kiremt) rainfall showed increasing trends in Efratana Gidim and Menz Gera Meder which the latter is statistically significant. Annual rainfall also showed positive trends in the area except Basona Werana where significant negative trends were observed. On the other hand, maximum and minimum temperatures showed warming trends in the study area. Correlation results have shown that crop production and area of cultivation have positive correlation with rainfall, and negative with temperature. When the trends in crop production are investigated, most crops showed negative trends and below average production was observed. Regression results have shown that rainfall was the most important determinant of crop production in the area. It is concluded that current climate variability has a significant influence on crop production in the area and any unfavorable change in the local climate in the future will have serious implications for household level food security. Efforts to adapt to the ongoing climate change should begin from tackling the current climate variability and take a climate risk management approach.

Keywords: central highlands, climate variability, crop production, Ethiopia, regression, trend

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Authors: Thi Thanh Nga Pham, Damien Philippon, Alexis Drogoul, Thi Thu Thuy Nguyen, Tien Cong Nguyen

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Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam is recognized as one of the most vulnerable to climate change due to flooding and seawater rise and therefore an increased burden of climate change-related diseases. Changes in temperature and precipitation are likely to alter the incidence and distribution of vector-borne diseases such as dengue fever. In this region, the peak of the dengue epidemic period is around July to September during the rainy season. It is believed that climate is an important factor for dengue transmission. This study aims to enhance the capacity of dengue prediction by the relationship of dengue incidences with climate and environmental variables for Mekong River Delta of Vietnam during 2005-2015. Mathematical models for vector-host infectious disease, including larva, mosquito, and human being were used to calculate the impacts of climate to the dengue transmission with incorporating geospatial data for model input. Monthly dengue incidence data were collected at provincial level. Precipitation data were extracted from satellite observations of GSMaP (Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation), land surface temperature and land cover data were from MODIS. The value of seasonal reproduction number was estimated to evaluate the potential, severity and persistence of dengue infection, while the final infected number was derived to check the outbreak of dengue. The result shows that the dengue infection depends on the seasonal variation of climate variables with the peak during the rainy season and predicted dengue incidence follows well with this dynamic for the whole studied region. However, the highest outbreak of 2007 dengue was not captured by the model reflecting nonlinear dependences of transmission on climate. Other possible effects will be discussed to address the limitation of the model. This suggested the need of considering of both climate variables and another variability across temporal and spatial scales.

Keywords: infectious disease, dengue, geospatial data, climate

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Authors: Buruk Kitachew Wossenyeleh

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Groundwater is the largest freshwater reservoir in the world. Like the other reservoirs of the hydrologic cycle, it is a finite resource. This study focused on the groundwater modeling of the Ter Kamerenbos well field to understand the groundwater flow system and the impact of different scenarios. The study area covers 68.9Km2 in the Brussels Capital Region and is situated in two river catchments, i.e., Zenne River and Woluwe Stream. The aquifer system has three layers, but in the modeling, they are considered as one layer due to their hydrogeological properties. The catchment aquifer system is replenished by direct recharge from rainfall. The groundwater recharge of the catchment is determined using the spatially distributed water balance model called WetSpass, and it varies annually from zero to 340mm. This groundwater recharge is used as the top boundary condition for the groundwater modeling of the study area. During the groundwater modeling using Processing MODFLOW, constant head boundary conditions are used in the north and south boundaries of the study area. For the east and west boundaries of the study area, head-dependent flow boundary conditions are used. The groundwater model is calibrated manually and automatically using observed hydraulic heads in 12 observation wells. The model performance evaluation showed that the root means the square error is 1.89m and that the NSE is 0.98. The head contour map of the simulated hydraulic heads indicates the flow direction in the catchment, mainly from the Woluwe to Zenne catchment. The simulated head in the study area varies from 13m to 78m. The higher hydraulic heads are found in the southwest of the study area, which has the forest as a land-use type. This calibrated model was run for the climate change scenario and well operation scenario. Climate change may cause the groundwater recharge to increase by 43% and decrease by 30% in 2100 from current conditions for the high and low climate change scenario, respectively. The groundwater head varies for a high climate change scenario from 13m to 82m, whereas for a low climate change scenario, it varies from 13m to 76m. If doubling of the pumping discharge assumed, the groundwater head varies from 13m to 76.5m. However, if the shutdown of the pumps is assumed, the head varies in the range of 13m to 79m. It is concluded that the groundwater model is done in a satisfactory way with some limitations, and the model output can be used to understand the aquifer system under steady-state conditions. Finally, some recommendations are made for the future use and improvement of the model.

Keywords: Ter Kamerenbos, groundwater modelling, WetSpass, climate change, well operation

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Authors: Emilia Hunt, Sally C. Reynolds, Fiona Coward, Fabio Parracho Silva, Philip Hopley

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Ecological niche modeling is widely used in conservation studies, but application to the extinct hominin species is a relatively new approach. Being able to understand what ecological niches were occupied by respective hominin species provides a new perspective into influences on evolutionary processes. Niche separation or overlap can tell us more about specific requirements of the species within the given timeframe. Many of the ancestral species lived through enormous climate changes: glacial and interglacial periods, changes in rainfall, leading to desertification or flooding of regions and displayed impressive levels of adaptation necessary for their survival. This paper reviews niche modeling methodologies and their application to hominin studies. Traditional conservation methods might not be directly applicable to extinct species and are not comparable to hominins. Hominin niche also includes aspects of technologies, use of fire and extended communication, which are not traditionally used in building conservation models. Future perspectives on how to improve niche modeling for extinct hominin species will be discussed.

Keywords: hominin niche, climate change, evolution, adaptation, ecological niche modelling

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Authors: Mirza Waseem Abbas, Abdul Qayyum, Muhammad Islam

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Climate change has emerged as a significant threat to global food security, affecting crop production systems worldwide. This research paper aims to examine the specific impacts of climate change on wheat production in Pakistan, Punjab in particular, a country highly dependent on wheat as a staple food crop. Through a comprehensive review of scientific literature, field observations, and data analysis, this study assesses the key climatic factors influencing wheat cultivation and the subsequent implications for food security in the region. A comparison of two subsequent Wheat seasons in Punjab was examined through climatic conditions, area, yield, and production data. From the analysis, it is observed that despite a decrease in the area under cultivation in the Punjab during the Wheat 2023 season, the production and average yield increased due to favorable weather conditions. These uncertain climatic conditions have a direct impact on crop yields. Last year due to heat waves, Wheat crop in Punjab suffered a significant loss. Through crop insurance, Wheat growers were provided with yield loss protection keeping in view the devastating heat wave and floods last year. Under crop insurance by the Government of the Punjab, 534,587 Wheat growers were insured with a $1.6 million premium subsidy. However, due to better climatic conditions, no loss in the yield was recorded in the insured areas. Crop Insurance is one of the suitable options for policymakers to protect farmers against climatic losses in the future as well.

Keywords: climate change, crop insurance, heatwave, wheat yield punjab

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Authors: Lameck Zetu Khonje, Mulala Danny Simatele

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The tourism industry in Malawi has grown tremendously during the past twenty-five years. This growth is attributed to the change in the political system which opened doors to international tourist and investment opportunities in the country which previously was under a strict repressive one-party political system. This research paper focuses on the developments that took place in the accommodation sector during the same period and the impact that it has partly caused on an environmental metabolic rift in the country which is now vulnerable to climate change-related catastrophes. Respondents from the government departments and the hotel sector were recruited for in-depth interviews. These interviews were conducted between July and November 2015 and follow up interviews were conducted between September and December 2017. Both results indicated there were minimal efforts pursued from the public sector to cartel capitalistic development tendencies in the accommodation sector. The results from the hotel revealed there were considerable efforts pursued driven by operating cost-cutting motive. Applying systems thinking the paper recommends that the policing machinery needs improvement to ensure that the industry also focuses on environmental wellbeing instead of profit maximization. This paper contributes to the body of knowledge on tourism development and climate change.

Keywords: accommodation sector, climate change, metabolic rift, Malawi, tourism industry

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Authors: Yassine Messaoud, Gordon Nigh, Faouzi Messaoud, Han Chen

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The effect of climate change on tree growth in boreal and temperate forests has received increased interest in the context of global warming. However, most studies were conducted in small areas and with a limited number of tree species. Here, we examined the height growth responses of seventeen tree species to climate change in Western North America. 37009 stands from forest inventory databases in Canada and USA with varying establishment date were selected. Dominant and co-dominant trees from each stand were sampled to determine top tree height at 50 years breast height age. Height was related to historical mean annual and summer temperatures, annual and summer Palmer Drought Severity Index, tree establishment date, slope, aspect, soil fertility as determined by the rate of carbon organic matter decomposition (carbon/nitrogen), geographic locations (latitude, longitude, and elevation), species range (coastal, interior, and both ranges), shade tolerance and leaf form (needle leaves, deciduous needle leaves, and broadleaves). Climate change had mostly a positive effect on tree height growth. The results explained 62.4% of the height growth variance. Since 1880, height growth increase was greater for coastal, high shade tolerant, and broadleaf species. Height growth increased more on steep slopes and high soil fertility soils. Greater height growth was mostly observed at the leading range and upward. Conversely, some species showed the opposite pattern probably due to the increase of drought (coastal Mediterranean area), precipitation and cloudiness (Alaska and British Columbia) and peculiarity (higher latitudes-lower elevations and vice versa) of western North America topography. This study highlights the role of the species ecological amplitude and traits, and geographic locations as the main factors determining the growth response and its magnitude to the recent global climate change.

Keywords: Height growth, global climate change, species range, species characteristics, species ecological amplitude, geographic locations, western North America

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Authors: Khan R. Rahaman, Quazi K. Hassan

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Global changes in climate, environment, economies, populations, governments, institutions, and cultures converge in localities. Changes at a local scale, in turn, contribute to global changes as well as being affected by them. Our hypothesis is built on a consideration that temperature does vary at local level (i.e., termed as local warming) in comparison to the predicted models at the regional and/or global scale. To date, the bulk of the research relating local places to global climate change has been top-down, from the global toward the local, concentrating on methods of impact analysis that use as a starting point climate change scenarios derived from global models, even though these have little regional or local specificity. Thus, our focus is to understand such trends over the southern Alberta, which will enable decision makers, scientists, researcher community, and local people to adapt their policies based on local level temperature variations and to act accordingly. Specific objectives in this study are: (i) to understand the local warming (temperature in particular) trend in context of temperature normal during the period 1961-2010 at point locations using meteorological data; (ii) to validate the data by using specific yearly data, and (iii) to delineate the spatial extent of the local warming trends and understanding influential factors to adopt situation by local governments. Existing data has brought the evidence of such changes and future research emphasis will be given to validate this hypothesis based on remotely sensed data (i.e. MODIS product by NASA).

Keywords: local warming, climate change, urban area, Alberta, Canada

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Authors: Murat Zencirkıran, Elvan Ender

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Climate change, which has become effective on a global scale, is accompanied by an increase in negative conditions for human, plant and animal life. Especially these negative conditions (drought, warming, glowing, etc.) are felt more rapidly in urban life and affect the sustainability of green areas which are of great importance in terms of life comfort. In this context, the choice of woody taxa used in the design and design of green spaces in the city increase one more time. Within the scope of this study, two of four urban parks located in the city center of Bursa province were selected and evaluated for woody taxa. Urban parks have been identified as the oldest and newest urban park in Bursa, and it has been tried to emphasize the differences that may exist over time. It was determined that 54 woody taxa took place in Resat Oyal Kulturpark and 76 woody taxa in Hudavendigar Urban Park. These taxa have been evaluated in terms of water consumption and ecological tolerances by taking into account climate change, and suggestions have been developed against possible problems.

Keywords: ecological hardiness, urban park, water consumption, woody plants

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Authors: Halima Kilungu, Pantaleo, K. T. Munishi

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Climate and land-cover change affect nature-based tourism (NBT) due to its attractions' close connection to natural environments and climate. Thus, knowledge of how each attraction reacts to the changing environments and devising simple yet science based approaches to respond to these changes from a tourism perspective in space and time is timely. Nevertheless, no specific approaches exist to address the knowledge gap. The eco-parcel approach is devised to address the gap and operationalized in Serengeti and Kilimanjaro National Parks: the most climate-sensitive NBT destinations in Africa. The approach is partly descriptive and has three simple steps: (1) to identify and define tourist attractions (i.e. biotic and abiotic attractions). This creates an important database of the most poorly kept information on attractions' types in NBT destinations. (2) To create a spatial and temporal link of each attraction and describe its characteristic environments (e.g. vegetation, soil, water and rock outcrops). This is the most limited attractions' information yet important as a proxy of changes in attractions. (3) To assess the importance of individual attractions for tourism based on tourists' preferences. This information enables an accurate assessment of the value of individual attractions for tourism. The importance of the eco-parcel approach is that it describes how each attraction emerges from and is connected to specific environments, which define its attractiveness in space and time. This information allows accurate assessment of the likely losses or gains of individual attractions when climate or environment changes in specific destinations and equips tourism stakeholders with informed responses.

Keywords: climate change, environmental change, nature-based tourism, Serengeti National Park, Kilimanjaro National Park

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