Search results for: forecasting market diffusion
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4867

Search results for: forecasting market diffusion

1417 Introduction of Integrated Image Deep Learning Solution and How It Brought Laboratorial Level Heart Rate and Blood Oxygen Results to Everyone

Authors: Zhuang Hou, Xiaolei Cao

Abstract:

The general public and medical professionals recognized the importance of accurately measuring and storing blood oxygen levels and heart rate during the COVID-19 pandemic. The demand for accurate contactless devices was motivated by the need for cross-infection reduction and the shortage of conventional oximeters, partially due to the global supply chain issue. This paper evaluated a contactless mini program HealthyPai’s heart rate (HR) and oxygen saturation (SpO2) measurements compared with other wearable devices. In the HR study of 185 samples (81 in the laboratory environment, 104 in the real-life environment), the mean absolute error (MAE) ± standard deviation was 1.4827 ± 1.7452 in the lab, 6.9231 ± 5.6426 in the real-life setting. In the SpO2 study of 24 samples, the MAE ± standard deviation of the measurement was 1.0375 ± 0.7745. Our results validated that HealthyPai utilizing the Integrated Image Deep Learning Solution (IIDLS) framework, can accurately measure HR and SpO2, providing the test quality at least comparable to other FDA-approved wearable devices in the market and surpassing the consumer-grade and research-grade wearable standards.

Keywords: remote photoplethysmography, heart rate, oxygen saturation, contactless measurement, mini program

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1416 Significant Factor of Magnetic Resonance for Survival Outcome in Rectal Cancer Patients Following Neoadjuvant Combined Chemotherapy and Radiation Therapy: Stratification of Lateral Pelvic Lymph Node

Authors: Min Ju Kim, Beom Jin Park, Deuk Jae Sung, Na Yeon Han, Kichoon Sim

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Purpose: The purpose of this study is to determine the significant magnetic resonance (MR) imaging factors of lateral pelvic lymph node (LPLN) on the assessment of survival outcomes of neoadjuvant combined chemotherapy and radiation therapy (CRT) in patients with mid/low rectal cancer. Materials and Methods: The institutional review board approved this retrospective study of 63 patients with mid/low rectal cancer who underwent MR before and after CRT and patient consent was not required. Surgery performed within 4 weeks after CRT. The location of LPLNs was divided into following four groups; 1) common iliac, 2) external iliac, 3) obturator, and 4) internal iliac lymph nodes. The short and long axis diameters, numbers, shape (ovoid vs round), signal intensity (homogenous vs heterogenous), margin (smooth vs irregular), and diffusion-weighted restriction of LPLN were analyzed on pre- and post-CRT images. For treatment response using size, lymph node groups were defined as group 1) short axis diameter ≤ 5mm on both MR, group 2) > 5mm change into ≤ 5mm after CRT, and group 3) persistent size > 5mm before and after CRT. Clinical findings were also evaluated. The disease-free survival and overall survival rate were evaluated and the risk factors for survival outcomes were analyzed using cox regression analysis. Results: Patients in the group 3 (persistent size >5mm) showed significantly lower survival rates than the group 1 and 2 (Disease-free survival rates of 36.1% and 78.8, 88.8%, p < 0.001). The size response (group 1-3), multiplicity of LPLN, the level of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), patient’s age, T and N stage, vessel invasion, perineural invasion were significant factors affecting disease-free survival rate or overall survival rate using univariate analysis (p < 0.05). The persistent size (group 3) and multiplicity of LPLN were independent risk factors among MR imaging features influencing disease-free survival rate (HR = 10.087, p < 0.05; HR = 4.808, p < 0.05). Perineural invasion and T stage were shown as independent histologic risk factors (HR = 16.594, p < 0.05; HR = 15.891, p < 0.05). Conclusion: The persistent size greater than 5mm and multiplicity of LPLN on both pre- and post-MR after CRT were significant MR factors affecting survival outcomes in the patients with mid/low rectal cancer.

Keywords: rectal cancer, MRI, lymph node, combined chemoradiotherapy

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1415 Factors Affecting Households' Decision to Allocate Credit for Livestock Production: Evidence from Ethiopia

Authors: Kaleb Shiferaw, Berhanu Geberemedhin, Dereje Legesse

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Access to credit is often viewed as a key to transform semi-subsistence smallholders into market oriented producers. However, only a few studies have examined factors that affect farmers’ decision to allocate credit on farm activities in general and livestock production in particular. A trivariate probit model with double selection is employed to identify factors that affect farmers’ decision to allocate credit on livestock production using data collected from smallholder farmers in Ethiopia. After controlling for two sample selection bias – taking credit for the production season and decision to allocate credit on farm activities – land ownership and access to a livestock centered extension service are found to have a significant (p<0.001) effect on farmers decision to use credit for livestock production. The result showed farmers with large land holding, and access to a livestock centered extension services are more likely to utilize credit for livestock production. However since the effect of land ownership squared is negative the effect of land ownership for those who own a large plot of land lessens. The study highlights the fact that improving access to credit does not automatically translate into more productive households. Improving farmers’ access to credit should be followed by a focused extension services.

Keywords: livestock production, credit access, credit allocation, household decision, double sample selection

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1414 Effect of Different Processing Methods on the Quality Attributes of Pigeon Pea Used in Bread Production

Authors: B. F. Olanipekun, O. J. Oyelade, C. O. Osemobor

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Pigeon pea is a very good source of protein and micronutrient, but it is being underutilized in Nigeria because of several constraints. This research considered the effect of different processing methods on the quality attributes of pigeon pea used in bread production towards enhancing its utility. Pigeon pea was obtained at a local market and processed into the flour using three processing methods: soaking, sprouting and roasting and were used to bake bread in different proportions. Chemical composition and sensory attributes of the breads were thereafter determined. The highest values of protein and ash contents were obtained from 20 % substitution of sprouted pigeon pea in wheat flour and may be attributable to complex biochemical changes occurring during hydration, to invariably lead to protein constituent being broken down. Hydrolytic activities of the enzymes from the sprouted sample resulted in improvement in the constituent of total protein probably due to reduction in the carbohydrate content. Sensory qualities analyses showed that bread produced with soaked and roasted pigeon pea flours at 5 and 10% inclusion, respectively were mostly accepted than other blends, and products with sprouted pigeon pea flour were least accepted. The findings of this research suggest that supplementing wheat flour with sprouted pigeon peas have more nutritional potentials. However, with sensory analysis indices, the soaked and roasted pigeon peas up to 10% are majorly accepted, and also can improve the nutritional status. Overall, this will be very beneficial to population dependent on plant protein in order to combat malnutrition problems.

Keywords: pigeon pea, processing, protein, malnutrition

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1413 Challenges and Opportunities in Computing Logistics Cost in E-Commerce Supply Chain

Authors: Pramod Ghadge, Swadesh Srivastava

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Revenue generation of a logistics company depends on how the logistics cost of a shipment is calculated. Logistics cost of a shipment is a function of distance & speed of the shipment travel in a particular network, its volumetric size and dead weight. Logistics billing is based mainly on the consumption of the scarce resource (space or weight carrying capacity of a carrier). Shipment’s size or deadweight is a function of product and packaging weight, dimensions and flexibility. Hence, to arrive at a standard methodology to compute accurate cost to bill the customer, the interplay among above mentioned physical attributes along with their measurement plays a key role. This becomes even more complex for an ecommerce company, like Flipkart, which caters to shipments from both warehouse and marketplace in an unorganized non-standard market like India. In this paper, we will explore various methodologies to define a standard way of billing the non-standard shipments across a wide range of size, shape and deadweight. Those will be, usage of historical volumetric/dead weight data to arrive at a factor which can be used to compute the logistics cost of a shipment, also calculating the real/contour volume of a shipment to address the problem of irregular shipment shapes which cannot be solved by conventional bounding box volume measurements. We will also discuss certain key business practices and operational quality considerations needed to bring standardization and drive appropriate ownership in the ecosystem.

Keywords: contour volume, logistics, real volume, volumetric weight

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1412 Diagnosis, Development, and Adoption of Technology Packages for Innovation in Precision Agriculture in the Wine Sector in Mexico

Authors: Nivon P. Alejandra, Valencia P. L. Rodrigo, Vivanco V. Martin, Morita A. Adelina

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Technological innovation is fundamental to reach and maintain the levels of competitiveness of agricultural producers, the detection of actors, their activities, resources and capacities of an innovation system is needed for the development of technological packages that adapt to each type of crops, local circumstances and characteristics of the producer. The growing development of the viticulture and wine sector in Mexico prospects an increase in its national market participation for 2020, this is the reason to consider it a fertile field for the technological packages adoption that promote Precision Agriculture (PA) in a harmonic and sustainable development. A viability inspection of technological packages adoption by viticulture and wine sector is made following the methodology proposed by SAGARPA in 2015 and the World Bank in 2008: the history, actors, strengths and opportunities are analyzed in this particular agroindustrial sector, also its technological innovation system is inspected in order to improve technological capacities and innovation networks taking into account local and regional resources. PA and technological packages adoption can help improving the conditions and quality of the grape for winemaking: increasing the wine's storage potential and its nutraceutical nature. The assertive diagnosis in vineyard opportunity areas will help the management of the crop by applying natural treatments at the right time in the right place.

Keywords: technological packages, precision farming, sustainable development, innovation

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1411 Solar Building Design Using GaAs PV Cells for Optimum Energy Consumption

Authors: Hadis Pouyafar, D. Matin Alaghmandan

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Gallium arsenide (GaAs) solar cells are widely used in applications like spacecraft and satellites because they have a high absorption coefficient and efficiency and can withstand high-energy particles such as electrons and protons. With the energy crisis, there's a growing need for efficiency and cost-effective solar cells. GaAs cells, with their 46% efficiency compared to silicon cells 23% can be utilized in buildings to achieve nearly zero emissions. This way, we can use irradiation and convert more solar energy into electricity. III V semiconductors used in these cells offer performance compared to other technologies available. However, despite these advantages, Si cells dominate the market due to their prices. In our study, we took an approach by using software from the start to gather all information. By doing so, we aimed to design the optimal building that harnesses the full potential of solar energy. Our modeling results reveal a future; for GaAs cells, we utilized the Grasshopper plugin for modeling and optimization purposes. To assess radiation, weather data, solar energy levels and other factors, we relied on the Ladybug and Honeybee plugins. We have shown that silicon solar cells may not always be the choice for meeting electricity demands, particularly when higher power output is required. Therefore, when it comes to power consumption and the available surface area for photovoltaic (PV) installation, it may be necessary to consider efficient solar cell options, like GaAs solar cells. By considering the building requirements and utilizing GaAs technology, we were able to optimize the PV surface area.

Keywords: gallium arsenide (GaAs), optimization, sustainable building, GaAs solar cells

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1410 Steps to Create a Wine Tourism Product Based on Storytelling

Authors: Yorgos Darlas

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This original research aims at creating a wine tourism experience specially designed for Thessaloniki, based on retsina, a traditional Greek wine produced continuously since 5400 BC. Wine is a staple of the Greek dinner table, and this is particularly true for Thessaloniki, a city with a rich culinary tradition member of the UNESCO Creative Cities Network for gastronomy. Our methodology is based on historical and folklore research in order to shed light on the history and culture around the production and enjoyment of wine. In addition, we use quantitative and qualitative market research with the aim of recording modern habits and trends related to wine enjoyment. The above research has revealed the habits, rules, and rituals of the people of Thessaloniki, demonstrating the close link between the city’s culinary heritage and retsina. Thanks to this close link, the people of the city have a strong emotional bond with retsina, always ready to share a relevant story loaded with memories. Based on the findings of the research, our aim is to create a new wine tourism product for Thessaloniki based on storytelling. This wine tourism experience will provide visitors with the opportunity to discover the city through the personal stories of locals. At the same time, they will be acquainted with the history and the culture of retsina by visiting landmarks associated with its production and consumption and discovering the city’s multifaceted gastronomic heritage through pairings with retsina.

Keywords: retsina, Thessaloniki, wine tourism, marketing, storytelling

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1409 Characterization of Aerosol Droplet in Absorption Columns to Avoid Amine Emissions

Authors: Hammad Majeed, Hanna Knuutila, Magne Hilestad, Hallvard Svendsen

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Formation of aerosols can cause serious complications in industrial exhaust gas CO2 capture processes. SO3 present in the flue gas can cause aerosol formation in an absorption based capture process. Small mist droplets and fog formed can normally not be removed in conventional demisting equipment because their submicron size allows the particles or droplets to follow the gas flow. As a consequence of this aerosol based emissions in the order of grams per Nm3 have been identified from PCCC plants. In absorption processes aerosols are generated by spontaneous condensation or desublimation processes in supersaturated gas phases. Undesired aerosol development may lead to amine emissions many times larger than what would be encountered in a mist free gas phase in PCCC development. It is thus of crucial importance to understand the formation and build-up of these aerosols in order to mitigate the problem.Rigorous modelling of aerosol dynamics leads to a system of partial differential equations. In order to understand mechanics of a particle entering an absorber an implementation of the model is created in Matlab. The model predicts the droplet size, the droplet internal variable profiles and the mass transfer fluxes as function of position in the absorber. The Matlab model is based on a subclass method of weighted residuals for boundary value problems named, orthogonal collocation method. The model comprises a set of mass transfer equations for transferring components and the essential diffusion reaction equations to describe the droplet internal profiles for all relevant constituents. Also included is heat transfer across the interface and inside the droplet. This paper presents results describing the basic simulation tool for the characterization of aerosols formed in CO2 absorption columns and gives examples as to how various entering droplets grow or shrink through an absorber and how their composition changes with respect to time. Below are given some preliminary simulation results for an aerosol droplet composition and temperature profiles. Results: As an example a droplet of initial size of 3 microns, initially containing a 5M MEA, solution is exposed to an atmosphere free of MEA. Composition of the gas phase and temperature is changing with respect to time throughout the absorber.

Keywords: amine solvents, emissions, global climate change, simulation and modelling, aerosol generation

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1408 Tatak Noy-Pi: The Branding Evolution of Tesoro's Philippine Handicrafts- A Philippines Creative and Cultural Industry

Authors: Regine R. Villanueva

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The study looks into how a cultural industry such as Tesoro’s Philippine Handicrafts underwent the brand revitalization process throughout its 70 years of existence in the Philippine market. This study uses a historical approach which analyzes the changes in product development and promotional strategies. Similarly, its brand identity was determined as well in terms of its internal processes and archival data such as history, mission – vision, customer relations, products, and promotions. The product life cycle model and the brand identity planning model were used as theoretical framework for the study. The life cycle was used in historically tracing the company’s developments and changes in terms of its branding, more specifically the products, promotions, and identity. Interviews were conducted among informants who included the CEO and the heads of each department in the business. The researcher also utilized textual analysis to have an in-depth understanding of Tesoro’s’ brand identity portrayal through its advertisements. The results showed how the company has undergone a progressive and innovative transition in its life cycle. With the changing markets and increased competition, the brand started active promotions and engaged in product development. In terms of identity, they are branded as pioneers of the handicraft industry in the Philippines. They started their brand revitalization to be able to imbibe this identity to their consumers through advertisement communication and identifying their segmented markets.

Keywords: cultural industry, handicrafts, case study, philippines

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1407 Renewable Energy Industry Trends and Its Contributions to the Development of Energy Resilience in an Era of Accelerating Climate Change

Authors: A. T. Asutosh, J. Woo, M. Kouhirostami, M. Sam, A. Khantawang, C. Cuales, W. Ryor, C. Kibert

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Climate change and global warming vortex have grown to alarming proportions. Therefore, the need for a shift in the conceptualization of energy production is paramount. Energy practices have been created in the current situation. Fossil fuels continue their prominence, at the expense of renewable sources. Despite this abundance, a large percentage of the world population still has no access to electricity but there have been encouraging signs in global movement from nonrenewable to renewable energy but means to reverse climate change have been elusive. Worldwide, organizations have put tremendous effort into innovation. Conferences and exhibitions act as a platform that allows a broad exchange of information regarding trends in the renewable energy field. The Solar Power International (SPI) conference and exhibition is a gathering of concerned activists, and probably the largest convention of its kind. This study investigates current development in the renewable energy field, analyzing means by which industry is being applied to the issue. In reviewing the 2019 SPI conference, it was found innovations in recycling and assessing the environmental impacts of the solar products that need critical attention. There is a huge movement in the electrical storage but there exists a large gap in the development of security systems. This research will focus on solar energy, but impacts will be relevant to the entire renewable energy market.

Keywords: climate change, renewable energy, solar, trends, research, solar power international, SPI

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1406 Analyzing Energy Consumption Behavior of Migrated Population in Turkey Using Bayesian Belief Approach

Authors: Ebru Acuner, Gulgun Kayakutlu, M. Ozgur Kayalica, Sermin Onaygil

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In Turkey, emigration, especially from Syria, has been continuously increasing together with rapid urbanization. In parallel to this, total energy consumption has been growing, rapidly. Unfortunately, domestic energy sources could not meet this energy demand. Hence, there is a need for reliable predictions. For this reason, before making a survey study for the migrated people, an informative questionnaire was prepared to take the opinions of the experts on the main drivers that shape the energy consumption behavior of the migrated people. Totally, 17 experts were answered, and they were analyzed by means of Netica program considering Bayesian belief analysis method. In the analysis, factors affecting energy consumption behaviors as well as strategies, institutions, tools and financing methods to change these behaviors towards efficient consumption were investigated. On the basis of the results, it can be concluded that changing the energy consumption behavior of the migrated people is crucial. In order to be successful, electricity and natural gas prices and tariffs in the market should be arranged considering energy efficiency. In addition, support mechanisms by not only the government but also municipalities should be taken into account while preparing related policies. Also, electric appliance producers should develop and implement strategies and action in favor of the usage of more efficient appliances. Last but not least, non-governmental organizations should support the migrated people to improve their awareness on the efficient consumption for the sustainable future.

Keywords: Bayesian belief, behavior, energy consumption, energy efficiency, migrated people

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1405 Dynamic Modeling of Energy Systems Adapted to Low Energy Buildings in Lebanon

Authors: Nadine Yehya, Chantal Maatouk

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Low energy buildings have been developed to achieve global climate commitments in reducing energy consumption. They comprise energy efficient buildings, zero energy buildings, positive buildings and passive house buildings. The reduced energy demands in Low Energy buildings call for advanced building energy modeling that focuses on studying active building systems such as heating, cooling and ventilation, improvement of systems performances, and development of control systems. Modeling and building simulation have expanded to cover different modeling approach i.e.: detailed physical model, dynamic empirical models, and hybrid approaches, which are adopted by various simulation tools. This paper uses DesignBuilder with EnergyPlus simulation engine in order to; First, study the impact of efficiency measures on building energy behavior by comparing Low energy residential model to a conventional one in Beirut-Lebanon. Second, choose the appropriate energy systems for the studied case characterized by an important cooling demand. Third, study dynamic modeling of Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) system in EnergyPlus that is chosen due to its advantages over other systems and its availability in the Lebanese market. Finally, simulation of different energy systems models with different modeling approaches is necessary to confront the different modeling approaches and to investigate the interaction between energy systems and building envelope that affects the total energy consumption of Low Energy buildings.

Keywords: physical model, variable refrigerant flow heat pump, dynamic modeling, EnergyPlus, the modeling approach

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1404 Procedure Model for Data-Driven Decision Support Regarding the Integration of Renewable Energies into Industrial Energy Management

Authors: M. Graus, K. Westhoff, X. Xu

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The climate change causes a change in all aspects of society. While the expansion of renewable energies proceeds, industry could not be convinced based on general studies about the potential of demand side management to reinforce smart grid considerations in their operational business. In this article, a procedure model for a case-specific data-driven decision support for industrial energy management based on a holistic data analytics approach is presented. The model is executed on the example of the strategic decision problem, to integrate the aspect of renewable energies into industrial energy management. This question is induced due to considerations of changing the electricity contract model from a standard rate to volatile energy prices corresponding to the energy spot market which is increasingly more affected by renewable energies. The procedure model corresponds to a data analytics process consisting on a data model, analysis, simulation and optimization step. This procedure will help to quantify the potentials of sustainable production concepts based on the data from a factory. The model is validated with data from a printer in analogy to a simple production machine. The overall goal is to establish smart grid principles for industry via the transformation from knowledge-driven to data-driven decisions within manufacturing companies.

Keywords: data analytics, green production, industrial energy management, optimization, renewable energies, simulation

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1403 Environmental Impact Assessment of Ceramic Tile Materials Used in Jordan on Indoor Radon Level

Authors: Mefleh Hamideen

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In this investigation, the activity concentrations of ²²⁶Ra, ²³²Th, and ⁴⁰K, of some ceramic tile materials used in the local market of Jordan for interior decoration were determined by making use of High Purity Germanium (HPGe) detector. Twenty samples of the different countries of origin and sizes used in Jordan were analyzed. The concentration values of the last-mentioned radionuclides ranged from 30 Bq.kg⁻¹ (Sample from Jordan) to 98 Bq.kg⁻¹ (Sample from China) for ²²⁶Ra, 31 Bq.kg⁻¹ (Sample from Italy) to 98 Bq.kg⁻¹ (Sample from China) for ²³²Th, and 129 Bq.kg⁻¹ (Sample from Spain) to 679 Bq.kg⁻¹ (Sample from Italy) for ⁴⁰K. Based on the calculated activity concentrations, some radiological parameters have been calculated to test the radiation hazards in the ceramic tiles. In this work, the following parameters: Total absorbed dose rate (DR), Annual effective dose rate (HR), Radium equivalent activity (Raeq), Radon emanation coefficient F (%) and Radon mass exhalation rate (Em) were calculated for all ceramic tiles and listed in the body of the work. Fortunately, the average calculated values of all parameters are less than the recommended values for each parameter. Consequently, almost all the examined ceramic materials appear to have low radon emanation coefficients. As a result of that investigation, no problems on people can appear by using those ceramic tiles in Jordan.

Keywords: radon emanation coefficient, radon mass exhalation rate, total annual effective dose, radon level

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1402 Prototype of Low-Cost Safety-Suit for Manual Scavengers in India

Authors: Noopur Anand, Amit Gupta

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Sewage divers are the workers involved in cleaning and maintaining of the sewerage lines by entering through manholes. The working conditions of sewage divers in India are more challenging than in other countries. Though India has legal acts framed to ensure protection of the divers called 'The Prohibition of Employment of Manual Scavengers and their Rehabilitation Act, 2013' by Ministry of Law and Justice but these are usually not implemented. Further, the divers are not even provided with safety gear like mask, eyewear, helmet, safety suit, safety belt, gloves, and shoes because of lack of initiative among the agencies/individuals employing them and low awareness of importance of the protective gear amongst workers themselves. Several reports and studies show that because of the non-availability of safety gear, many sewage workers get infected and many of them retire even before attaining superannuation and about 70% of the manual scavengers die while on job. Though there are neoprene safety suits, costing only a few thousand, available in the market which can suffice but is beyond the buying capacity of the sewage diver and agencies/individuals employing them are reluctant to procure it as they find it expensive. In absence of safety suits, the divers get exposed to the parasites, viruses, and disease-causing germs present in the sewage. The research was undertaken with the objective of developing an affordable safety-suit which would save diver from coming into direct contact with the sewage thus preventing infections and diseases. The low cost of the suit may also motivate their employers to procure them for sewage divers.

Keywords: manhole cleaner, manual scavenger, prototype, low-cost safety-suit

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1401 Constraints and Opportunities of Wood Production Value Chain: Evidence from Southwest Ethiopia

Authors: Abduselam Faris, Rijalu Negash, Zera Kedir

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This study was initiated to identify constraints and opportunities of the wood production value chain in Southwest Ethiopia. About 385 wood trees growing farmers were randomly interviewed. Similarly, about 30 small-scale wood processors, 30 retailers, 15 local collectors and 5 wholesalers were purposively included in the study. The results of the study indicated that 98.96 % of the smallholder farmers that engaged in the production of wood trees which is used for wood were male-headed, with an average age of 46.88 years. The main activity that the household engaged was agriculture (crop and livestock) which accounts for about 61.56% of the sample respondents. Through value chain mapping of actors, the major value chain participant and supporting actors were identified. On average, the tree-growing farmers generated gross income of 9385.926 Ethiopian birr during the survey year. Among the critical constraints identified along the wood production value chain was limited supply of credit, poor market information dissemination, high interference of brokers, and shortage of machines, inadequate working area and electricity. The availability of forest resources is the leading opportunity in the wood production value chain. Reinforcing the linkage among wood production value chain actors, providing skill training for small-scale processors, and developing suitable policy for wood tree wise use is key recommendations forward.

Keywords: value chain analysis, wood production, southwest Ethiopia, constraints and opportunities

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1400 Role of Information and Communication Technology in Pharmaceutical Innovation: Case of Firms in Developing Countries

Authors: Ilham Benali, Nasser Hajji, Nawfel Acha

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The pharmaceutical sector is ongoing different constraints related to the Research and Development (R&D) costs, the patents extinction, the demand pressing, the regulatory requirement and the generics development, which drive leading firms in the sector to undergo technological change and to shift to biotechnological paradigm. Based on a large literature review, we present a background of innovation trajectory in pharmaceutical industry and reasons behind this technological transformation. Then we investigate the role that Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is playing in this revolution. In order to situate pharmaceutical firms in developing countries in this trajectory, and to examine the degree of their involvement in the innovation process, we did not find any previous empirical work or sources generating gathered data that allow us to analyze this phenomenon. Therefore, and for the case of Morocco, we tried to do it from scratch by gathering relevant data of the last five years from different sources. As a result, only about 4% of all innovative drugs that have access to the local market in the mentioned period are made locally which substantiates that the industrial model in pharmaceutical sector in developing countries is based on the 'license model'. Finally, we present another alternative, based on ICT use and big data tools that can allow developing countries to shift from status of simple consumers to active actors in the innovation process.

Keywords: biotechnologies, developing countries, innovation, information and communication technology, pharmaceutical firms

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1399 Consumer’ Knowledge, Attitude and Behavior on Food Safety Issues Related to Pesticide Residues in Cabbage

Authors: Dekie Rawung, Abdul L. Abadi, Toto Himawan, Siegfried Berhimpon

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A case study on consumer' knowledge, attitude, and behavior on food safety issue related to pesticide residues in cabbage was conducted in the area of Manado and Tomohon city, North Sulawesi. A sample of 150 consumers were selected randomly on location (open market and supermarket) while they were purchasing vegetables. The data on consumers’ perception, knowledge, attitude and behavior on food safety issue regarding pesticide residues were collected using a 5-point, two-section Likert-Scale questionnaire, and the relationship of knowledge, attitude, and behavior on food safety issues were analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). It was found that, among many food safety issues, the illegal, non-food chemical preservatives were considered the most important one (by more than 35% respondents), followed by high cholesterol content and textile coloring chemical (> 27% respondents). The pesticide residues issue was only in the 4th place. The same results were seen on the issue of quality factors that determine the product selection during purchasing. The pesticide-free and organic products labels were considered much less important quality factors as compared with freshness and nutrition value which were considered the most and the second most important quality factors (almost 65% of respondents). SEM analysis showed that only knowledge and attitude on food safety that had the significant relation (coefficient value of 0.38), whereas those with behaviors were not significant.

Keywords: cabbage, consumer, food safety, pesticide residues

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1398 Implementation Association Rule Method in Determining the Layout of Qita Supermarket as a Strategy in the Competitive Retail Industry in Indonesia

Authors: Dwipa Rizki Utama, Hanief Ibrahim

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The development of industry retail in Indonesia is very fast, various strategy was undertaken to boost the customer satisfaction and the productivity purchases to boost the profit, one of which is implementing strategies layout. The purpose of this study is to determine the layout of Qita supermarket, a retail industry in Indonesia, in order to improve customer satisfaction and to maximize the rate of products’ sale as a whole, so as the infrequently purchased products will be purchased. This research uses a literature study method, and one of the data mining methods is association rule which applied in market basket analysis. Data were tested amounted 100 from 160 after pre-processing data, so then the distribution department and 26 departments corresponding to the data previous layout will be obtained. From those data, by the association rule method, customer behavior when purchasing items simultaneously can be studied, so then the layout of the supermarket based on customer behavior can be determined. Using the rapid miner software by the minimal support 25% and minimal confidence 30% showed that the 14th department purchased at the same time with department 10, 21st department purchased at the same time with department 13, 15th department purchased at the same time with department 12, 14th department purchased at the same time with department 12, and 10th department purchased at the same time with department 14. From those results, a better supermarket layout can be arranged than the previous layout.

Keywords: industry retail, strategy, association rule, supermarket

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1397 Improved Soil and Snow Treatment with the Rapid Update Cycle Land-Surface Model for Regional and Global Weather Predictions

Authors: Tatiana G. Smirnova, Stan G. Benjamin

Abstract:

Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) was a land-surface component in several generations of operational weather prediction models at the National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It was designed for short-range weather predictions with an emphasis on severe weather and originally was intentionally simple to avoid uncertainties from poorly known parameters. Nevertheless, the RUC LSM, when coupled with the hourly-assimilating atmospheric model, can produce a realistic evolution of time-varying soil moisture and temperature, as well as the evolution of snow cover on the ground surface. This result is possible only if the soil/vegetation/snow component of the coupled weather prediction model has sufficient skill to avoid long-term drift. RUC LSM was first implemented in the operational NCEP Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) weather model in 1998 and later in the Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF)-based Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR). Being available to the international WRF community, it was implemented in operational weather models in Austria, New Zealand, and Switzerland. Based on the feedback from the US weather service offices and the international WRF community and also based on our own validation, RUC LSM has matured over the years. Also, a sea-ice module was added to RUC LSM for surface predictions over the Arctic sea-ice. Other modifications include refinements to the snow model and a more accurate specification of albedo, roughness length, and other surface properties. At present, RUC LSM is being tested in the regional application of the Unified Forecast System (UFS). The next generation UFS-based regional Rapid Refresh FV3 Standalone (RRFS) model will replace operational RAP and HRRR at NCEP. Over time, RUC LSM participated in several international model intercomparison projects to verify its skill using observed atmospheric forcing. The ESM-SnowMIP was the last of these experiments focused on the verification of snow models for open and forested regions. The simulations were performed for ten sites located in different climatic zones of the world forced with observed atmospheric conditions. While most of the 26 participating models have more sophisticated snow parameterizations than in RUC, RUC LSM got a high ranking in simulations of both snow water equivalent and surface temperature. However, ESM-SnowMIP experiment also revealed some issues in the RUC snow model, which will be addressed in this paper. One of them is the treatment of grid cells partially covered with snow. RUC snow module computes energy and moisture budgets of snow-covered and snow-free areas separately by aggregating the solutions at the end of each time step. Such treatment elevates the importance of computing in the model snow cover fraction. Improvements to the original simplistic threshold-based approach have been implemented and tested both offline and in the coupled weather model. The detailed description of changes to the snow cover fraction and other modifications to RUC soil and snow parameterizations will be described in this paper.

Keywords: land-surface models, weather prediction, hydrology, boundary-layer processes

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1396 ParkedGuard: An Efficient and Accurate Parked Domain Detection System Using Graphical Locality Analysis and Coarse-To-Fine Strategy

Authors: Chia-Min Lai, Wan-Ching Lin, Hahn-Ming Lee, Ching-Hao Mao

Abstract:

As world wild internet has non-stop developments, making profit by lending registered domain names emerges as a new business in recent years. Unfortunately, the larger the market scale of domain lending service becomes, the riskier that there exist malicious behaviors or malwares hiding behind parked domains will be. Also, previous work for differentiating parked domain suffers two main defects: 1) too much data-collecting effort and CPU latency needed for features engineering and 2) ineffectiveness when detecting parked domains containing external links that are usually abused by hackers, e.g., drive-by download attack. Aiming for alleviating above defects without sacrificing practical usability, this paper proposes ParkedGuard as an efficient and accurate parked domain detector. Several scripting behavioral features were analyzed, while those with special statistical significance are adopted in ParkedGuard to make feature engineering much more cost-efficient. On the other hand, finding memberships between external links and parked domains was modeled as a graph mining problem, and a coarse-to-fine strategy was elaborately designed by leverage the graphical locality such that ParkedGuard outperforms the state-of-the-art in terms of both recall and precision rates.

Keywords: coarse-to-fine strategy, domain parking service, graphical locality analysis, parked domain

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1395 Assessment of Microbiological Feed Safety from Serbian Market from 2013 to 2017

Authors: Danijela Vuković, Radovan Čobanović, Milorad Plačkić

Abstract:

The expansion of population imposes increase in usage of animal meat, on whose quality directly affects the quality of the feed that the animals are fed with. The selection of raw materials, hygiene during the technological process, various hydrothermal treatments, methods of mixing etc. have an influence on the quality of feed. Monitoring of the feed is very important to obtain information about the quality of feed and the possible prevention of animal diseases which can lead to different human diseases outbreaks. In this study parameters of feed safety were monitored. According to the mentioned, the goal of this study was to evaluate microbiological safety of feed (feedstuffs and complete mixtures). Total number of analyzed samples was 4399. Analyzed feed samples were collected in various retail shops and feed factories during the period of 44 months (from January 2013 untill September 2017). Samples were analyzed on Salmonella spp. and Clostridium perfringens in quantity of 50g according to Serbian regulation. All microorganisms were tested according to ISO methodology: Salmonella spp. ISO 6579:2002 and Clostridium perfringens ISO 7937:2004. Out of 4399 analyzed feed samples 97,5% were satisfactory and 2,5% unsatisfactory concerning Salmonella spp. As far as Clostridium perfringens is concerned 100% of analyzed samples were satisfactory. The obtained results suggest that technological processing of feed in Serbia is at high level when it comes to safety and hygiene of the products, but there are still possibilities for progress and improvement which only can be reached trough the permanent monitoring of feed.

Keywords: microbiology, safety, hygiene, feed

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1394 Antioxidant Activity, Total Phenol and Pigments Content of Seaweeds Collected from, Rameshwaram, Gulf of Mannar, Southeast Coast of India

Authors: Suparna Roy, P. Anantharaman

Abstract:

The aim of this work is to estimate some in-vitro antioxidant activities and total phenols of various extracts such as aqueous, acetone, ethanol, methanol extract of seaweeds and pigments content by Spectrophotometric method. The seaweeds were collected during 2016 from Rameshwaram, southeast coast of India. Among four different extracts, aqueous extracts from all seaweeds had minimum activity than acetone, methanol and ethanol. The Rhodophyta and Phaeophyta had high antioxidant activity in comparing to Chlorophyta. The highest total antioxidant activity was found in acetone extract fromTurbinaria decurrens (98.97±0.00%), followed by its methanol extract (98.81±0.60%) and ethanol extract (98.58±0.53%). The highest reducing power and H2O2 scavenging activity were found in acetone extract of Caulerpa racemosa (383.25±1.04%), and methanol extract from Caulerpa racemosa var. macrophysa (24.91±0.49%). The methanol extract from Caulerpa scalpelliformis contained the highest total phenol (85.23±0.12%). The Chloro-a and Chloro-b contents were the highest in Gracilaria foliifera (13.69±0.38% mg/gm dry wt.) and Caulerpa racemosa var. macrophysa (9.12 ±0.12% mg/gm dry wt.) likewise carotenoid was also the highest in Gracilaria foliifera (0.054±0.0003% mg/gm dry wt.) and Caulerpa racemosa var. macrophysa (0.04 ±0.002% mg/gm dry wt.). It can be concluded from this study that some seaweed extract can be used for natural antioxidant production, after further characterization to negotiate the side effect of synthetic, market available antioxidants.

Keywords: seaweeds, antioxidant, total phenol, pigment, Olaikuda, Vadakkadu, Rameshwaram

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1393 Measurement and Modelling of HIV Epidemic among High Risk Groups and Migrants in Two Districts of Maharashtra, India: An Application of Forecasting Software-Spectrum

Authors: Sukhvinder Kaur, Ashok Agarwal

Abstract:

Background: For the first time in 2009, India was able to generate estimates of HIV incidence (the number of new HIV infections per year). Analysis of epidemic projections helped in revealing that the number of new annual HIV infections in India had declined by more than 50% during the last decade (GOI Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, 2010). Then, National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO) planned to scale up its efforts in generating projections through epidemiological analysis and modelling by taking recent available sources of evidence such as HIV Sentinel Surveillance (HSS), India Census data and other critical data sets. Recently, NACO generated current round of HIV estimates-2012 through globally recommended tool “Spectrum Software” and came out with the estimates for adult HIV prevalence, annual new infections, number of people living with HIV, AIDS-related deaths and treatment needs. State level prevalence and incidence projections produced were used to project consequences of the epidemic in spectrum. In presence of HIV estimates generated at state level in India by NACO, USIAD funded PIPPSE project under the leadership of NACO undertook the estimations and projections to district level using same Spectrum software. In 2011, adult HIV prevalence in one of the high prevalent States, Maharashtra was 0.42% ahead of the national average of 0.27%. Considering the heterogeneity of HIV epidemic between districts, two districts of Maharashtra – Thane and Mumbai were selected to estimate and project the number of People-Living-with-HIV/AIDS (PLHIV), HIV-prevalence among adults and annual new HIV infections till 2017. Methodology: Inputs in spectrum included demographic data from Census of India since 1980 and sample registration system, programmatic data on ‘Alive and on ART (adult and children)’,‘Mother-Baby pairs under PPTCT’ and ‘High Risk Group (HRG)-size mapping estimates’, surveillance data from various rounds of HSS, National Family Health Survey–III, Integrated Biological and Behavioural Assessment and Behavioural Sentinel Surveillance. Major Findings: Assuming current programmatic interventions in these districts, an estimated decrease of 12% points in Thane and 31% points in Mumbai among new infections in HRGs and migrants is observed from 2011 by 2017. Conclusions: Project also validated decrease in HIV new infection among one of the high risk groups-FSWs using program cohort data since 2012 to 2016. Though there is a decrease in HIV prevalence and new infections in Thane and Mumbai, further decrease is possible if appropriate programme response, strategies and interventions are envisaged for specific target groups based on this evidence. Moreover, evidence need to be validated by other estimation/modelling techniques; and evidence can be generated for other districts of the state, where HIV prevalence is high and reliable data sources are available, to understand the epidemic within the local context.

Keywords: HIV sentinel surveillance, high risk groups, projections, new infections

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1392 Decision Framework for Cross-Border Railway Infrastructure Projects

Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki

Abstract:

Transport infrastructure assets are key components of the national asset portfolio. The decision to invest in a new infrastructure in transports could take from a few years to some decades. This is mainly because of the need to reserve and spent many capitals, the long payback period, the number of the stakeholders involved in decision process and –many times- the investment and business risks are high. Therefore, the decision assessment framework is an essential challenge linked with the key decision factors meet the stakeholder expectations highlighting project trade-offs, financial risks, business uncertainties and market limitations. This paper examines the decision process for new transport infrastructure projects in cross border regions, where a wide range of stakeholders with different expectation is involved. According to a consequences analysis systemic approach, the relationship of transport infrastructure development, economic system development and stakeholder expectation is analyzed. Adopting the on system of system methodological approach, the decision making framework, variables, inputs and outputs are defined, highlighting the key shareholder’s role and expectations. The application provides the methodology outputs presenting the proposed decision framework for a strategic railway project in north Greece deals with the upgrade of the existing railway corridor connecting Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria.

Keywords: decision making, system of system, cross-border, infrastructure project

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1391 Doped TiO2 Thin Films Microstructural and Electrical Properties

Authors: Mantas Sriubas, Kristina Bockute, Darius Virbukas, Giedrius Laukaitis

Abstract:

In this work, the doped TiO2 (dopants – Ca, Mg) was investigated. The comparison between the physical vapour deposition methods as electron beam vapour deposition and magnetron sputtering was performed and the structural and electrical properties of the formed thin films were investigated. Thin films were deposited on different type of substrates: SiO2, Alloy 600 (Fe-Ni-Cr) and Al2O3 substrates. The structural properties were investigated using Ambios XP-200 profilometer, scanning electron microscope (SEM) Hitachi S-3400N, X-ray energy-dispersive spectroscope (EDS) Quad 5040 (Bruker AXS Microanalysis GmbH), X-ray diffractometer (XRD) D8 Discover (Bruker AXS GmbH) with glancing angles focusing geometry in a 20 – 70° range using the Cu Kα1 λ = 0.1540562 nm radiation). The impedance spectroscopy measurements were performed using Probostat® (NorECs AS) measurement cell in the frequency range from 10-1-106 Hz under reducing and oxidizing conditions in temperature range of 200 °C to 1200 °C. The investigation of the e-beam deposited Ca and Mg doped-TiO2 thin films shows that the thin films are dense without any visible pores and cavities and the thin films grow in zone T according Barna-Adamik SZM. Substrate temperature was kept 600 °C during the deposition and Ts/Tm ≈ 0.32 (substrate temperature (Ts) and coating material melting temperature (Tm)). The surface diffusion is high however, the grain boundary migration is strongly limited at this temperature. This means that structure is inhomogeneous and the columnar structure is mostly visible in the upper part of the films. According to XRD, the increasing of the Ca dopants’ concentration increases the crystallinity of the formed thin films and the crystallites size increase linearly and Ca dopants act as prohibitors. Thin films are comprised of anatase TiO2 phase with an exception of 2 % Ca doped TiO2, where a small peak of Ca arise. In the case of Mg doped-TiO2 the intensities of the XRD peaks decreases with increasing Mg molar concentration. It means that there are less diffraction planes of the particular orientation in thin films with higher impurities concentration. Thus, the crystallinity decreases with increasing Mg concentration and Mg dopants act as inhibitors. The impedance measurements show that the dopants changed the conductivity of the formed thin films. The conductivity varies from 10-3 S/cm to 10-4 S/cm at 800 °C under wet reducing conditions. The microstructure of the magnetron sputtered thin TiO2 films is different comparing to the thin films deposited using e-beam deposition therefore influencing other structural and electrical properties.

Keywords: electrical properties, electron beam deposition, magnetron sputtering, microstructure, titanium dioxide

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1390 A Panel Cointegration Analysis for Macroeconomic Determinants of International Housing Market

Authors: Mei-Se Chien, Chien-Chiang Lee, Sin-Jie Cai

Abstract:

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics of international housing prices when macroeconomic variables change. We apply the Pedroni’s, panel cointegration, using the unbalanced panel data analysis of 33 countries over the period from 1980Q1 to 2013Q1, to examine the relationships among house prices and macroeconomic variables. Our empirical results of panel data cointegration tests support the existence of a cointegration among these macroeconomic variables and house prices. Besides, the empirical results of panel DOLS further present that a 1% increase in economic activity, long-term interest rates, and construction costs cause house prices to respectively change 2.16%, -0.04%, and 0.22% in the long run. Furthermore, the increasing economic activity and the construction cost would cause stronger impacts on the house prices for lower income countries than higher income countries. The results lead to the conclusion that policy of house prices growth can be regarded as economic growth for lower income countries. Finally, in America region, the coefficient of economic activity is the highest, which displays that increasing economic activity causes a faster rise in house prices there than in other regions. There are some special cases whereby the coefficients of interest rates are significantly positive in America and Asia regions.

Keywords: house prices, macroeconomic variables, panel cointegration, dynamic OLS

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1389 Multistage Data Envelopment Analysis Model for Malmquist Productivity Index Using Grey's System Theory to Evaluate Performance of Electric Power Supply Chain in Iran

Authors: Mesbaholdin Salami, Farzad Movahedi Sobhani, Mohammad Sadegh Ghazizadeh

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Evaluation of organizational performance is among the most important measures that help organizations and entities continuously improve their efficiency. Organizations can use the existing data and results from the comparison of units under investigation to obtain an estimation of their performance. The Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) is an important index in the evaluation of overall productivity, which considers technological developments and technical efficiency at the same time. This article proposed a model based on the multistage MPI, considering limited data (Grey’s theory). This model can evaluate the performance of units using limited and uncertain data in a multistage process. It was applied by the electricity market manager to Iran’s electric power supply chain (EPSC), which contains uncertain data, to evaluate the performance of its actors. Results from solving the model showed an improvement in the accuracy of future performance of the units under investigation, using the Grey’s system theory. This model can be used in all case studies, in which MPI is used and there are limited or uncertain data.

Keywords: Malmquist Index, Grey's Theory, CCR Model, network data envelopment analysis, Iran electricity power chain

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1388 Efficiency of Membrane Distillation to Produce Fresh Water

Authors: Sabri Mrayed, David Maccioni, Greg Leslie

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Seawater desalination has been accepted as one of the most effective solutions to the growing problem of a diminishing clean drinking water supply. Currently, two desalination technologies dominate the market – the thermally driven multi-stage flash distillation (MSF) and the membrane based reverse osmosis (RO). However, in recent years membrane distillation (MD) has emerged as a potential alternative to the established means of desalination. This research project intended to determine the viability of MD as an alternative process to MSF and RO for seawater desalination. Specifically the project involves conducting a thermodynamic analysis of the process based on the second law of thermodynamics to determine the efficiency of the MD. Data was obtained from experiments carried out on a laboratory rig. In order to determine exergy values required for the exergy analysis, two separate models were built in Engineering Equation Solver – the ’Minimum Separation Work Model’ and the ‘Stream Exergy Model’. The efficiency of MD process was found to be 17.3 %, and the energy consumption was determined to be 4.5 kWh to produce one cubic meter of fresh water. The results indicate MD has potential as a technique for seawater desalination compared to RO and MSF. However, it was shown that this was only the case if an alternate energy source such as green or waste energy was available to provide the thermal energy input to the process. If the process was required to power itself, it was shown to be highly inefficient and in no way thermodynamically viable as a commercial desalination process.

Keywords: desalination, exergy, membrane distillation, second law efficiency

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