Search results for: statistical estimation problem
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 12424

Search results for: statistical estimation problem

9124 Seismic Microzonation of El-Fayoum New City, Egypt

Authors: Suzan Salem, Heba Moustafa, Abd El-Aziz Abd El-Aal

Abstract:

Seismic micro hazard zonation for urban areas is the first step towards a seismic risk analysis and mitigation strategy. Essential here is to obtain a proper understanding of the local subsurface conditions and to evaluate ground-shaking effects. In the present study, an attempt has been made to evaluate the seismic hazard considering local site effects by carrying out detailed geotechnical and geophysical site characterization in El-Fayoum New City. Seismic hazard analysis and microzonation of El-Fayoum New City are addressed in three parts: in the first part, estimation of seismic hazard is done using seismotectonic and geological information. The second part deals with site characterization using geotechnical and shallow geophysical techniques. In the last part, local site effects are assessed by carrying out one-dimensional (1-D) ground response analysis using the equivalent linear method by program SHAKE 2000. Finally, microzonation maps have been prepared. The detailed methodology, along with experimental details, collected data, results and maps are presented in this paper.

Keywords: El-Fayoum, microzonation, seismotectonic, Egypt

Procedia PDF Downloads 385
9123 An Efficient and Provably Secure Three-Factor Authentication Scheme with Key Agreement

Authors: Mohan Ramasundaram, Amutha Prabakar Muniyandi

Abstract:

Remote user authentication is one of the important tasks for any kind of remote server applications. Several remote authentication schemes are proposed by the researcher for Telecare Medicine Information System (TMIS). Most of the existing techniques have limitations, vulnerable to various kind attacks, lack of functionalities, information leakage, no perfect forward security and ineffectiveness. Authentication is a process of user verification mechanism for allows him to access the resources of a server. Nowadays, most of the remote authentication protocols are using two-factor authentications. We have made a survey of several remote authentication schemes using three factors and this survey shows that the most of the schemes are inefficient and subject to several attacks. We observed from the experimental evaluation; the proposed scheme is very secure against various known attacks that include replay attack, man-in-the-middle attack. Furthermore, the analysis based on the communication cost and computational cost estimation of the proposed scheme with related schemes shows that our proposed scheme is efficient.

Keywords: Telecare Medicine Information System, elliptic curve cryptography, three-factor, biometric, random oracle

Procedia PDF Downloads 224
9122 Commercial Winding for Superconducting Cables and Magnets

Authors: Glenn Auld Knierim

Abstract:

Automated robotic winding of high-temperature superconductors (HTS) addresses precision, efficiency, and reliability critical to the commercialization of products. Today’s HTS materials are mature and commercially promising but require manufacturing attention. In particular to the exaggerated rectangular cross-section (very thin by very wide), winding precision is critical to address the stress that can crack the fragile ceramic superconductor (SC) layer and destroy the SC properties. Damage potential is highest during peak operations, where winding stress magnifies operational stress. Another challenge is operational parameters such as magnetic field alignment affecting design performance. Winding process performance, including precision, capability for geometric complexity, and efficient repeatability, are required for commercial production of current HTS. Due to winding limitations, current HTS magnets focus on simple pancake configurations. HTS motors, generators, MRI/NMR, fusion, and other projects are awaiting robotic wound solenoid, planar, and spherical magnet configurations. As with conventional power cables, full transposition winding is required for long length alternating current (AC) and pulsed power cables. Robotic production is required for transposition, periodic swapping of cable conductors, and placing into precise positions, which allows power utility required minimized reactance. A full transposition SC cable, in theory, has no transmission length limits for AC and variable transient operation due to no resistance (a problem with conventional cables), negligible reactance (a problem for helical wound HTS cables), and no long length manufacturing issues (a problem with both stamped and twisted stacked HTS cables). The Infinity Physics team is solving manufacturing problems by developing automated manufacturing to produce the first-ever reliable and utility-grade commercial SC cables and magnets. Robotic winding machines combine mechanical and process design, specialized sense and observer, and state-of-the-art optimization and control sequencing to carefully manipulate individual fragile SCs, especially HTS, to shape previously unattainable, complex geometries with electrical geometry equivalent to commercially available conventional conductor devices.

Keywords: automated winding manufacturing, high temperature superconductor, magnet, power cable

Procedia PDF Downloads 147
9121 Development of the Family Capacity of Management of Patients with Autism Spectrum Disorder Diagnosis

Authors: Marcio Emilio Dos Santos, Kelly C. F. Dos Santos

Abstract:

Caregivers of patients diagnosed with ASD are subjected to high stress situations due to the complexity and multiple levels of daily activities that require the organization of events, behaviors and socioemotional situations, such as immediate decision making and in public spaces. The cognitive and emotional requirement needed to fulfill this caregiving role exceeds the regular cultural process that adults receive in their process of preparation for conjugal and parental life. Therefore, in many cases, caregivers present a high level of overload, poor capacity to organize and mediate the development process of the child or patient about their care. Aims: Improvement in the cognitive and emotional capacities related to the caregiver function, allowing the reduction of the overload, the feeling of incompetence and the characteristic level of stress, developing a more organized conduct and decision making more oriented towards the objectives and procedural gains necessary for the integral development of the patient with diagnosis of ASD. Method: The study was performed with 20 relatives, randomly selected from a total of 140 patients attended. The family members were submitted to the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale III intelligence test and the Family assessment Management Measure (FaMM) questionnaire as a previous evaluation. Therapeutic activity in a small group of family members or caregivers, with weekly frequency, with a minimum workload of two hours, using the Feuerstein Instrumental Enrichment Cognitive Development Program - Feuerstein Instrumental Enrichment for ten months. Reapplication of the previous tests to verify the gains obtained. Results and Discussion: There is a change in the level of caregiver overload, improvement in the results of the Family assessment Management Measure and highlight to the increase of performance in the cognitive aspects related to problem solving, planned behavior and management of behavioral crises. These results lead to the discussion of the need to invest in the integrated care of patients and their caregivers, mainly by enabling cognitively to deal with the complexity of Autism. This goes beyond the simple therapeutic orientation about adjustments in family and school routines. The study showed that when the caregiver improves his/her capacity of management, the results of the treatment are potentiated and there is a reduction of the level of the caregiver's overload. Importantly, the study was performed for only ten months and the number of family members attended in the study (n = 20) needs to be expanded to have statistical strength.

Keywords: caregiver overload, cognitive development program ASD caregivers, feuerstein instrumental enrichment, family assessment management measure

Procedia PDF Downloads 133
9120 Climate Change and Food Security: The Legal Aspects with Special Focus on the European Union

Authors: M. Adamczak-Retecka, O. Hołub-Śniadach

Abstract:

Dangerous of climate change is now global problem and as such has a strategic priority also for the European Union. Europe and European citizens try to do their best to cut greenhouse gas emissions, moreover they substantially encourage other nations and regions to follow the same way. The European Commission and a number of Member States have developed adaptation strategies in order to help strengthen EU's resilience to the inevitable impacts of climate change. The EU has long been a driving force in international negotiations on climate change and was instrumental in the development of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. As the world's leading donor of development aid, the EU also provides substantial funding to help developing countries tackle climate change problem. Global warming influences human health, biodiversity, ecosystems but also many social and economic sectors. The aim of this paper is to focus on impact of claimant change on for food security. Food security challenges are directly related to globalization, climate change. It means that current and future food policy is exposed to all cross-cutting and that must be linked with environmental and climate targets, which supposed to be achieved. In the 7th EAP —The new general Union Environment Action Program to 2020, called “Living well, within the limits of our planet” EU has agreed to step up its efforts to protect natural capital, stimulate resource efficient, low carbon growth and innovation, and safeguard people’s health and wellbeing– while respecting the Earth’s natural limits.

Keywords: climate change, food security, sustainable food consumption, climate governance

Procedia PDF Downloads 181
9119 An Equivalence between a Harmonic Form and a Closed Co-Closed Differential Form in L^Q and Non-L^Q Spaces

Authors: Lina Wu, Ye Li

Abstract:

An equivalent relation between a harmonic form and a closed co-closed form is established on a complete non-compact manifold. This equivalence has been generalized for a differential k-form ω from Lq spaces to non-Lq spaces when q=2 in the context of p-balanced growth where p=2. Especially for a simple differential k-form on a complete non-compact manifold, the equivalent relation has been verified with the extended scope of q for from finite q-energy in Lq spaces to infinite q-energy in non-Lq spaces when with 2-balanced growth. Generalized Hadamard Theorem, Cauchy-Schwarz Inequality, and Calculus skills including Integration by Parts as well as Convergent Series have been applied as estimation techniques to evaluate growth rates for a differential form. In particular, energy growth rates as indicated by an appropriate power range in a selected test function lead to a balance between a harmonic differential form and a closed co-closed differential form. Research ideas and computational methods in this paper could provide an innovative way in the study of broadening Lq spaces to non-Lq spaces with a wide variety of infinite energy growth for a differential form.

Keywords: closed forms, co-closed forms, harmonic forms, L^q spaces, p-balanced growth, simple differential k-forms

Procedia PDF Downloads 453
9118 Comparison of Meshing Stiffness of Altered Tooth Sum Spur Gear Tooth with Different Pressure Angles

Authors: H. K. Sachidananda, K. Raghunandana, B. Shivamurthy

Abstract:

The estimation of gear tooth stiffness is important for finding the load distribution between the gear teeth when two consecutive sets of teeth are in contact. Based on dynamic model a C-program has been developed to compute mesh stiffness. By using this program position dependent mesh stiffness of spur gear tooth for various profile shifts have been computed for a fixed center distance and altering tooth-sum gearing (100 by ± 4%). It is found that the C-program using dynamic model is one of the rapid soft computing technique which helps in design of gears. The mesh tooth stiffness along the path of contact is studied for both 20° and 25° pressure angle gears at various profile shifts. Better tooth stiffness is noticed in case of negative alteration tooth-sum gears compared to standard and positive alteration tooth-sum gears. Also, in case of negative alteration tooth-sum gearing better mesh stiffness is noticed in 20° pressure angle when compared to 25°.

Keywords: altered tooth-sum gearing, bending fatigue, mesh stiffness, spur gear

Procedia PDF Downloads 326
9117 A Generative Adversarial Framework for Bounding Confounded Causal Effects

Authors: Yaowei Hu, Yongkai Wu, Lu Zhang, Xintao Wu

Abstract:

Causal inference from observational data is receiving wide applications in many fields. However, unidentifiable situations, where causal effects cannot be uniquely computed from observational data, pose critical barriers to applying causal inference to complicated real applications. In this paper, we develop a bounding method for estimating the average causal effect (ACE) under unidentifiable situations due to hidden confounders. We propose to parameterize the unknown exogenous random variables and structural equations of a causal model using neural networks and implicit generative models. Then, with an adversarial learning framework, we search the parameter space to explicitly traverse causal models that agree with the given observational distribution and find those that minimize or maximize the ACE to obtain its lower and upper bounds. The proposed method does not make any assumption about the data generating process and the type of the variables. Experiments using both synthetic and real-world datasets show the effectiveness of the method.

Keywords: average causal effect, hidden confounding, bound estimation, generative adversarial learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 197
9116 Damage Cost for Private Property by Extreme Wind over the past 10 Years in Korea

Authors: Gou-Moon Choi, Woo-Young Jung, Chan-Young Yune

Abstract:

Recently, the natural disaster has increased worldwide. In Korea, the damage to life and property caused by a typhoon, heavy rain, heavy snow, and an extreme wind also increases every year. Among natural disasters, the frequency and the strength of wind have increased because sea surface temperature has risen due to the increase of the average temperature of the Earth. In the case of extreme wind disaster, it is impossible to control or reduce the occurrence, and the recovery cost always exceeds the damage cost. Therefore, quantitative estimation of the damage cost for extreme wind needs to be established beforehand to install proactive countermeasures. In this study, the damage cost for private properties was analyzed based on the data for the past 10 years in Korea. The damage cost curve was also suggested for the metropolitan cities and provinces. The result shows the possibility for the regional application of the damage cost curve because the damage cost of the regional area is estimated based on the cost of cities and provinces.

Keywords: damage cost, extreme wind, natural disaster, private property

Procedia PDF Downloads 310
9115 Educators’ Adherence to Learning Theories and Their Perceptions on the Advantages and Disadvantages of E-Learning

Authors: Samson T. Obafemi, Seraphin D. Eyono-Obono

Abstract:

Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) are pervasive nowadays, including in education where they are expected to improve the performance of learners. However, the hope placed in ICTs to find viable solutions to the problem of poor academic performance in schools in the developing world has not yet yielded the expected benefits. This problem serves as a motivation to this study whose aim is to examine the perceptions of educators on the advantages and disadvantages of e-learning. This aim will be subdivided into two types of research objectives. Objectives on the identification and design of theories and models will be achieved using content analysis and literature review. However, the objective on the empirical testing of such theories and models will be achieved through the survey of educators from different schools in the Pinetown District of the South African Kwazulu-Natal province. SPSS is used to quantitatively analyse the data collected by the questionnaire of this survey using descriptive statistics and Pearson correlations after assessing the validity and the reliability of the data. The main hypothesis driving this study is that there is a relationship between the demographics of educators’ and their adherence to learning theories on one side, and their perceptions on the advantages and disadvantages of e-learning on the other side, as argued by existing research; but this research views these learning theories under three perspectives: educators’ adherence to self-regulated learning, to constructivism, and to progressivism. This hypothesis was fully confirmed by the empirical study except for the demographic factor where teachers’ level of education was found to be the only demographic factor affecting the perceptions of educators on the advantages and disadvantages of e-learning.

Keywords: academic performance, e-learning, learning theories, teaching and learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 278
9114 Corporate Governance and Firms` Performance: Evidence from Quoted Firms on the Nigerian Stock Exchange

Authors: Ogunwole Cecilia Oluwakemi, Wahid Damilola Olanipekun, Omoyele Olufemi Samuel, Timothy Ayomitunde Aderemi

Abstract:

The issues relating to corporate governance in both locally and internationally managed firms cannot be overemphasized because the lack of efficient corporate governance could orchestrate serious problems in any organization. Against this backdrop, this study examines the nexus between corporate governance and performance of firms from 2012 to 2020, using the case study of the Nigerian stock exchange. Consequently, data was collected from forty (40) listed firms on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. The study employed a fixed effect technique of estimation to address the objective of the study. It was discovered from the study that the influence of corporate governance components such as gender diversity, board independence and managerial ownership led to a significant positive impact on the performance of the firms under the investigation. In view of the above finding, this study makes the following recommendations for the policymakers in Nigeria that anytime the goal of the policymakers is the improvement of performance of the listed firms in the Nigerian stock exchange, board independence and a balance in the inclusion of male and female among the board of directors should be encouraged in these firms.

Keywords: corporate, governance, firms, performance, Nigeria, stock, exchange

Procedia PDF Downloads 185
9113 An Application of Path Planning Algorithms for Autonomous Inspection of Buried Pipes with Swarm Robots

Authors: Richard Molyneux, Christopher Parrott, Kirill Horoshenkov

Abstract:

This paper aims to demonstrate how various algorithms can be implemented within swarms of autonomous robots to provide continuous inspection within underground pipeline networks. Current methods of fault detection within pipes are costly, time consuming and inefficient. As such, solutions tend toward a more reactive approach, repairing faults, as opposed to proactively seeking leaks and blockages. The paper presents an efficient inspection method, showing that autonomous swarm robotics is a viable way of monitoring underground infrastructure. Tailored adaptations of various Vehicle Routing Problems (VRP) and path-planning algorithms provide a customised inspection procedure for complicated networks of underground pipes. The performance of multiple algorithms is compared to determine their effectiveness and feasibility. Notable inspirations come from ant colonies and stigmergy, graph theory, the k-Chinese Postman Problem ( -CPP) and traffic theory. Unlike most swarm behaviours which rely on fast communication between agents, underground pipe networks are a highly challenging communication environment with extremely limited communication ranges. This is due to the extreme variability in the pipe conditions and relatively high attenuation of acoustic and radio waves with which robots would usually communicate. This paper illustrates how to optimise the inspection process and how to increase the frequency with which the robots pass each other, without compromising the routes they are able to take to cover the whole network.

Keywords: autonomous inspection, buried pipes, stigmergy, swarm intelligence, vehicle routing problem

Procedia PDF Downloads 171
9112 Employing a System of Systems Approach in the Maritime RobotX Challenge: Incorporating Information Technology Students in the Development of an Autonomous Catamaran

Authors: Adam Jenkins

Abstract:

The Maritime RobotX Challenge provides a platform for postgraduate students conducting research in autonomous robotic systems to participate in an international competition. Although targeted to postgraduate students, the problem domain lends itself to a wide range of different levels of student expertise. In 2022, undergraduate Information Technology students from the University of South Australia undertook the challenge, utilizing a System of the Systems approach to the project's architecture. Each student group produced an independent solution to an identified task, which was then implemented on a Single Board Computer (SBC). A Central Control System then engaged each solution when appropriate, allowing the encapsulated SBC systems to manage each task as it was encountered. This approach facilitated collaboration among the multiple independent student teams over an 18-month period, and the fundamental system-agnostic architecture allowed for both the variance in student solutions and the limitations caused by the global electronics shortage. By adopting this approach, Information Technology teams were able to work independently yet produce an effective solution, leveraging their expertise to develop and construct an autonomous catamaran capable of meeting the competition's demanding requirements while producing a high level of engagement. The System of Systems approach is recommended to other universities interested in competing at this level and engaging students in a real-world problem.

Keywords: case study, robotics, education, programming, system of systems, multi-disciplinary collaboration

Procedia PDF Downloads 79
9111 Effect of Joule Heating on Chemically Reacting Micropolar Fluid Flow over Truncated Cone with Convective Boundary Condition Using Spectral Quasilinearization Method

Authors: Pradeepa Teegala, Ramreddy Chetteti

Abstract:

This work emphasizes the effects of heat generation/absorption and Joule heating on chemically reacting micropolar fluid flow over a truncated cone with convective boundary condition. For this complex fluid flow problem, the similarity solution does not exist and hence using non-similarity transformations, the governing fluid flow equations along with related boundary conditions are transformed into a set of non-dimensional partial differential equations. Several authors have applied the spectral quasi-linearization method to solve the ordinary differential equations, but here the resulting nonlinear partial differential equations are solved for non-similarity solution by using a recently developed method called the spectral quasi-linearization method (SQLM). Comparison with previously published work on special cases of the problem is performed and found to be in excellent agreement. The influence of pertinent parameters namely Biot number, Joule heating, heat generation/absorption, chemical reaction, micropolar and magnetic field on physical quantities of the flow are displayed through graphs and the salient features are explored in detail. Further, the results are analyzed by comparing with two special cases, namely, vertical plate and full cone wherever possible.

Keywords: chemical reaction, convective boundary condition, joule heating, micropolar fluid, spectral quasilinearization method

Procedia PDF Downloads 349
9110 Spelling Errors in Persian Children with Developmental Dyslexia

Authors: Mohammad Haghighi, Amineh Akhondi, Leila Jahangard, Mohammad Ahmadpanah, Masoud Ansari

Abstract:

Background: According to the recent estimation, approximately 4%-12% percent of Iranians have difficulty in learning to read and spell possibly as a result of developmental dyslexia. The study was planned to investigate spelling error patterns among Persian children with developmental dyslexia and compare that with the errors exhibited by control groups Participants: 90 students participated in this study. 30 students from Grade level five, diagnosed as dyslexics by professionals, 30 normal 5th Grade readers and 30 younger normal readers. There were 15 boys and 15 girls in each of the groups. Qualitative and quantitative methods for analysis of errors were used. Results and conclusion: results of this study indicate similar spelling error profiles among dyslexics and the reading level matched groups, and these profiles were different from age-matched group. However, performances of dyslexic group and reading level matched group were different and inconsistent in some cases.

Keywords: spelling, error types, developmental dyslexia, Persian, writing system, learning disabilities, processing

Procedia PDF Downloads 431
9109 Comparison of Elastic and Viscoelastic Modeling for Asphalt Concrete Surface Layer

Authors: Fouzieh Rouzmehr, Mehdi Mousavi

Abstract:

Hot mix asphalt concrete (HMAC) is a mixture of aggregates and bitumen. The primary ingredient that determines the mechanical properties of HMAC is the bitumen in it, which displays viscoelastic behavior under normal service conditions. For simplicity, asphalt concrete is considered an elastic material, but this is far from reality at high service temperatures and longer loading times. Viscoelasticity means that the material's stress-strain relationship depends on the strain rate and loading duration. The goal of this paper is to simulate the mechanical response of flexible pavements using linear elastic and viscoelastic modeling of asphalt concrete and predict pavement performance. Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) load will be simulated and the results for elastic and viscoelastic modeling will be evaluated. The viscoelastic simulation is performed by the Prony series, which will be modeled by using ANSYS software. Inflexible pavement design, tensile strain at the bottom of the surface layer and compressive strain at the top of the last layer plays an important role in the structural response of the pavement and they will imply the number of loads for fatigue (Nf) and rutting (Nd) respectively. The differences of these two modelings are investigated on fatigue cracking and rutting problem, which are the two main design parameters in flexible pavement design. Although the differences in rutting problem between the two models were negligible, in fatigue cracking, the viscoelastic model results were more accurate. Results indicate that modeling the flexible pavement with elastic material is efficient enough and gives acceptable results.

Keywords: flexible pavement, asphalt, FEM, viscoelastic, elastic, ANSYS, modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 134
9108 Structure of Consciousness According to Deep Systemic Constellations

Authors: Dmitry Ustinov, Olga Lobareva

Abstract:

The method of Deep Systemic Constellations is based on a phenomenological approach. Using the phenomenon of substitutive perception it was established that the human consciousness has a hierarchical structure, where deeper levels govern more superficial ones (reactive level, energy or ancestral level, spiritual level, magical level, and deeper levels of consciousness). Every human possesses a depth of consciousness to the spiritual level, however deeper levels of consciousness are not found for every person. It was found that the spiritual level of consciousness is not homogeneous and has its own internal hierarchy of sublevels (the level of formation of spiritual values, the level of the 'inner observer', the level of the 'path', the level of 'God', etc.). The depth of the spiritual level of a person defines the paradigm of all his internal processes and the main motives of the movement through life. At any level of consciousness disturbances can occur. Disturbances at a deeper level cause disturbances at more superficial levels and are manifested in the daily life of a person in feelings, behavioral patterns, psychosomatics, etc. Without removing the deepest source of a disturbance it is impossible to completely correct its manifestation in the actual moment. Thus a destructive pattern of feeling and behavior in the actual moment can exist because of a disturbance, for example, at the spiritual level of a person (although in most cases the source is at the energy level). Psychological work with superficial levels without removing a source of disturbance cannot fully solve the problem. The method of Deep Systemic Constellations allows one to work effectively with the source of the problem located at any depth. The methodology has confirmed its effectiveness in working with more than a thousand people.

Keywords: constellations, spiritual psychology, structure of consciousness, transpersonal psychology

Procedia PDF Downloads 252
9107 Vascularized Adipose Tissue Engineering by Using Adipose ECM/Fibroin Hydrogel

Authors: Alisan Kayabolen, Dilek Keskin, Ferit Avcu, Andac Aykan, Fatih Zor, Aysen Tezcaner

Abstract:

Adipose tissue engineering is a promising field for regeneration of soft tissue defects. However, only very thin implants can be used in vivo since vascularization is still a problem for thick implants. Another problem is finding a biocompatible scaffold with good mechanical properties. In this study, the aim is to develop a thick vascularized adipose tissue that will integrate with the host, and perform its in vitro and in vivo characterizations. For this purpose, a hydrogel of decellularized adipose tissue (DAT) and fibroin was produced, and both endothelial cells and adipocytes that were differentiated from adipose derived stem cells were encapsulated in this hydrogel. Mixing DAT with fibroin allowed rapid gel formation by vortexing. It also provided to adjust mechanical strength by changing fibroin to DAT ratio. Based on compression tests, gels of DAT/fibroin ratio with similar mechanical properties to adipose tissue was selected for cell culture experiments. In vitro characterizations showed that DAT is not cytotoxic; on the contrary, it has many natural ECM components which provide biocompatibility and bioactivity. Subcutaneous implantation of hydrogels resulted with no immunogenic reaction or infection. Moreover, localized empty hydrogels gelled successfully around host vessel with required shape. Implantations of cell encapsulated hydrogels and histological analyses are under study. It is expected that endothelial cells inside the hydrogel will form a capillary network and they will bind to the host vessel passing through hydrogel.

Keywords: adipose tissue engineering, decellularization, encapsulation, hydrogel, vascularization

Procedia PDF Downloads 531
9106 Stock Prediction and Portfolio Optimization Thesis

Authors: Deniz Peksen

Abstract:

This thesis aims to predict trend movement of closing price of stock and to maximize portfolio by utilizing the predictions. In this context, the study aims to define a stock portfolio strategy from models created by using Logistic Regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest. Recently, predicting the trend of stock price has gained a significance role in making buy and sell decisions and generating returns with investment strategies formed by machine learning basis decisions. There are plenty of studies in the literature on the prediction of stock prices in capital markets using machine learning methods but most of them focus on closing prices instead of the direction of price trend. Our study differs from literature in terms of target definition. Ours is a classification problem which is focusing on the market trend in next 20 trading days. To predict trend direction, fourteen years of data were used for training. Following three years were used for validation. Finally, last three years were used for testing. Training data are between 2002-06-18 and 2016-12-30 Validation data are between 2017-01-02 and 2019-12-31 Testing data are between 2020-01-02 and 2022-03-17 We determine Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate as benchmarks which we should outperform. We compared our machine learning basis portfolio return on test data with return of Hold Stock Portfolio, Best Stock Portfolio and USD-TRY Exchange rate. We assessed our model performance with the help of roc-auc score and lift charts. We use logistic regression, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest with grid search approach to fine-tune hyper-parameters. As a result of the empirical study, the existence of uptrend and downtrend of five stocks could not be predicted by the models. When we use these predictions to define buy and sell decisions in order to generate model-based-portfolio, model-based-portfolio fails in test dataset. It was found that Model-based buy and sell decisions generated a stock portfolio strategy whose returns can not outperform non-model portfolio strategies on test dataset. We found that any effort for predicting the trend which is formulated on stock price is a challenge. We found same results as Random Walk Theory claims which says that stock price or price changes are unpredictable. Our model iterations failed on test dataset. Although, we built up several good models on validation dataset, we failed on test dataset. We implemented Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and Logistic Regression. We discovered that complex models did not provide advantage or additional performance while comparing them with Logistic Regression. More complexity did not lead us to reach better performance. Using a complex model is not an answer to figure out the stock-related prediction problem. Our approach was to predict the trend instead of the price. This approach converted our problem into classification. However, this label approach does not lead us to solve the stock prediction problem and deny or refute the accuracy of the Random Walk Theory for the stock price.

Keywords: stock prediction, portfolio optimization, data science, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 86
9105 Mix Proportioning and Strength Prediction of High Performance Concrete Including Waste Using Artificial Neural Network

Authors: D. G. Badagha, C. D. Modhera, S. A. Vasanwala

Abstract:

There is a great challenge for civil engineering field to contribute in environment prevention by finding out alternatives of cement and natural aggregates. There is a problem of global warming due to cement utilization in concrete, so it is necessary to give sustainable solution to produce concrete containing waste. It is very difficult to produce designated grade of concrete containing different ingredient and water cement ratio including waste to achieve desired fresh and harden properties of concrete as per requirement and specifications. To achieve the desired grade of concrete, a number of trials have to be taken, and then after evaluating the different parameters at long time performance, the concrete can be finalized to use for different purposes. This research work is carried out to solve the problem of time, cost and serviceability in the field of construction. In this research work, artificial neural network introduced to fix proportion of concrete ingredient with 50% waste replacement for M20, M25, M30, M35, M40, M45, M50, M55 and M60 grades of concrete. By using the neural network, mix design of high performance concrete was finalized, and the main basic mechanical properties were predicted at 3 days, 7 days and 28 days. The predicted strength was compared with the actual experimental mix design and concrete cube strength after 3 days, 7 days and 28 days. This experimentally and neural network based mix design can be used practically in field to give cost effective, time saving, feasible and sustainable high performance concrete for different types of structures.

Keywords: artificial neural network, high performance concrete, rebound hammer, strength prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 160
9104 Estimation of Wind Characteristics and Energy Yield at Different Towns in Libya

Authors: Farag Ahwide, Souhel Bousheha

Abstract:

A technical assessment has been made of electricity generation, considering wind turbines ranging between Vestas (V80-2.0 MW and V112-3.0 MW) and the air density is equal to 1.225 Kg/m3, at different towns in Libya. Wind speed might have been measured each 3 hours during 10 m stature at a time for 10 quite sometime between 2000 Furthermore 2009, these towns which are spotted on the bank from claiming Mediterranean ocean also how in the desert, which need aid Derna 1, Derna 2, Shahat, Benghazi, Ajdabya, Sirte, Misurata, Tripoli-Airport, Al-Zawya, Al-Kofra, Sabha, Nalut. The work presented long term "wind data analysis in terms of annual, seasonal, monthly and diurnal variations at these sites. Wind power density with different heights has been studied. Excel sheet program was used to calculate the values of wind power density and the values of wind speed frequency for the stations; their seasonally values have been estimated. Limit variable with rated wind pace to 10 different wind turbines need to be been estimated, which is used to focus those required yearly vitality yield of a wind vitality change framework (WECS), acknowledging wind turbines extending between 600 kW and 3000 kW).

Keywords: energy yield, wind turbines, wind speed, wind power density

Procedia PDF Downloads 302
9103 Part of Speech Tagging Using Statistical Approach for Nepali Text

Authors: Archit Yajnik

Abstract:

Part of Speech Tagging has always been a challenging task in the era of Natural Language Processing. This article presents POS tagging for Nepali text using Hidden Markov Model and Viterbi algorithm. From the Nepali text, annotated corpus training and testing data set are randomly separated. Both methods are employed on the data sets. Viterbi algorithm is found to be computationally faster and accurate as compared to HMM. The accuracy of 95.43% is achieved using Viterbi algorithm. Error analysis where the mismatches took place is elaborately discussed.

Keywords: hidden markov model, natural language processing, POS tagging, viterbi algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 331
9102 The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Issue and Ideological Congruence of Trump and Bolsonaro Administrations

Authors: Flavio Contrera, Paulo Cesar Gregorio

Abstract:

Recent political developments and government control actions in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic draw attention to the contrast between the duties of government and the demands of democratic representation. Elected by mobilizing far-right issues, Trump and Bolsonaro moved away from the WHO guidelines but had to accommodate demands on the health and on the social protection system on the one hand and demands from the economic sector on the other. This study used the MARPOR Project method to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the issue and ideological congruence between the electoral and governmental arena in both the Trump and Bolsonaro Administrations. Findings reveal issue congruence between arenas in "National Way of Life: Positive", "Law and Order," and "Technology and Infrastructure" for Donald Trump, and "Welfare State Expansion" for Bolsonaro. Ideological estimation results show that Trump and Bolsonaro positioned to the right in their presidential elections, initially moved to the center-right. However, welfare policies actions at high frequency during the COVID-19 pandemic moved the ideological estimations of both governments to the center-left, despite their denial rhetoric.

Keywords: congruence, COVID-19, Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro

Procedia PDF Downloads 235
9101 An Improved Tracking Approach Using Particle Filter and Background Subtraction

Authors: Amir Mukhtar, Dr. Likun Xia

Abstract:

An improved, robust and efficient visual target tracking algorithm using particle filtering is proposed. Particle filtering has been proven very successful in estimating non-Gaussian and non-linear problems. In this paper, the particle filter is used with color feature to estimate the target state with time. Color distributions are applied as this feature is scale and rotational invariant, shows robustness to partial occlusion and computationally efficient. The performance is made more robust by choosing the different (YIQ) color scheme. Tracking is performed by comparison of chrominance histograms of target and candidate positions (particles). Color based particle filter tracking often leads to inaccurate results when light intensity changes during a video stream. Furthermore, background subtraction technique is used for size estimation of the target. The qualitative evaluation of proposed algorithm is performed on several real-world videos. The experimental results demonstrate that the improved algorithm can track the moving objects very well under illumination changes, occlusion and moving background.

Keywords: tracking, particle filter, histogram, corner points, occlusion, illumination

Procedia PDF Downloads 385
9100 Development and Optimization of German Diagnostical Tests in Mathematics for Vocational Training

Authors: J. Thiele

Abstract:

Teachers working at vocational Colleges are often confronted with the problem, that many students graduated from different schools and therefore each had a different education. Especially in mathematics many students lack fundamentals or had different priorities at their previous schools. Furthermore, these vocational Colleges have to provide Graduations for many different working-fields, with different core themes. The Colleges are interested in measuring the different Education levels of their students and providing assistance for those who need to catch up. The Project mathe-meistern was initiated to remedy this problem at vocational Colleges. For this purpose, online-tests were developed. The aim of these tests is to evaluate basic mathematical abilities of the students. The tests are online Multiple-Choice-Tests with a total of 65 Items. They are accessed online with a unique Transaction-Number (TAN) for each participant. The content is divided in several Categories (Arithmetic, Algebra, Fractions, Geometry, etc.). After each test, the student gets a personalized summary depicting their strengths and weaknesses in mathematical Basics. Teachers can visit a special website to examine the results of their classes or single students. In total 5830 students did participate so far. For standardization and optimization purposes the tests are being evaluated, using the classic and probabilistic Test-Theory regarding Objectivity, Reliability and Validity, annually since 2015. This Paper is about the Optimization process considering the Rasch-scaling and Standardization of the tests. Additionally, current results using standardized tests will be discussed. To achieve this Competence levels and Types of errors of students attending vocational Colleges in Nordrheinwestfalen, Germany, were determined, using descriptive Data and Distractorevaluations.

Keywords: diagnostical tests in mathematics, distractor devaluation, test-optimization, test-theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 129
9099 The Life Skills Project: Client-Centered Approaches to Life Skills Acquisition for Homeless and At-Risk Populations

Authors: Leah Burton, Sara Cumming, Julianne DiSanto

Abstract:

Homelessness is a widespread and complex problem in Canada and around the globe. Many Canadians will face homelessness at least once in their lifetime, with several experiencing subsequent bouts or cyclical patterns of housing precarity. While a Housing First approach to homelessness is a long-standing and widely accepted best practice, it is also recognized that the acquisition of life skills is an effective way to reduce cycles of homelessness. Indeed, when individuals are provided with a range of life skills—such as (but not limited to) financial literacy, household management, interpersonal skills, critical thinking, and resource management—they are given the tools required to maintain long-term Housing for a lifetime; thus reducing a repetitive need for services. However, there is limited research regarding the best ways to teach life skills, a problem that has been further complicated in a post-pandemic world, where services are being delivered online or in a hybrid model of care. More than this, it is difficult to provide life skills on a large scale without losing a client-centered approach to services. This lack of client-centeredness is also seen in the lack of attention to culturally sensitive life skills, which consider the diverse needs of individuals and imbed equity, diversity, and inclusion (EDI) within the skills being taught. This study aims to fill these identified gaps in the literature by employing a community-engaged (CER) approach. Academic, government, funders, front-line staff, and clients at 15 not-for-profits from across the Greater Toronto Area in Ontario, Canada, collaborated to co-create a virtual, client-centric, EDI-informed life skill learning management system. A triangulation methodology was utilized for this research. An environmental scan was conducted for current best practices, and over 100 front-line staff (including workers, managers, and executive directors who work with homeless populations) participated in two separate Creative Problem Solving Sessions. Over 200 individuals with experience in homelessness completed quantitative and open-ended surveys. All sections of this research aimed to discover the areas of skills that individuals need to maintain Housing and to ascertain what a more client-driven EDI approach to life skills training should include. This presentation will showcase the findings on which life skills are deemed essential for homeless and precariously housed individuals.

Keywords: homelessness, housing first, life skills, community engaged research, client- centered

Procedia PDF Downloads 105
9098 Estimation of Evapotranspiration and Crop Coefficient of Eggplant with Lysimeter in Al-Hasa Region

Authors: Mishari AlNaim

Abstract:

A field experiment was conducted for two seasons of 2011 and 2012 in The Agricultural Experiment Research Station in King Faisal University at Al-Hasa region, Saudi Arabia to estimate evapotranspiration (ETC) of Eggplant crop using Drainage Lysimeter with surface area of 2 x 2 m and depth of 1.5 m. The irrigation was applied daily. The amount of drainage was measured before each irrigation event. The results showed that there was almost no difference in the seasonal evapotranspiration of eggplant crop in the two seasons. The average evapotranspiration values for eggplant crop for the summer and winter seasons were 823.4 mm and 479.7 mm respectively. The highest and the lowest weekly measured values of (ETC) of eggplant crop during the two summer seasons were 8.6 mm/day and 3.9 mm/day respectively, while the highest and lowest weekly measured values of (ETC) of eggplant crop during the two winter seasons were 3.9 mm/day and 2.0 mm/day respectively. The measured values of ETc, in conjunction with the results of Penmen-Monteith equation for reference Evapotranspiration (ETR), were used to determine the crop coefficient (KC ini, KC mid and KC end) for eggplant crop. The average values were 0.50, 84 and 0.60 for KC ini, KC mid and KC end in Al-Hasa region, respectively. These estimated values for KC were used to approximate (ETc) for eggplant crop. High positive correlation coefficient (0.959) was detected between the approximated and measured values of eggplant crop evapotranspiration.

Keywords: evapotranspiration, eggpant, ETC, Al-Hasa

Procedia PDF Downloads 481
9097 Investigation of the Density and Control Methods of Weed Species That Are a Problem in Broad Bean (Vicia Faba L.) Cultivation

Authors: Tamer Üstüner, Sena Nur Arı

Abstract:

This study was carried out at Kahramanmaras Sutcu Imam University, trial area Faculty of Agriculture and ÜSKİM laboratory in 2022. Many problems are encountered in broad bean (Vicia faba L.) cultivation. One of these problems is weeds. In this study, weed species, families, and densities of weeds that are a problem in broad beans were determined. A total of 47 weed species belonging to 20 different families were determined in the experimental area. Weed species found very densely in control 1 plots of the broad bean experimental area were Sinapis arvensis 11.50 pieces/m², Lolium temulentum L. 11.20, Ranunculus arvensis L. 10.95, Galium tricornutum Dany. 10.81, Avena sterilis 10.60, Bupleurum lancifolium 10.40, Convolvulus arvensis 10.25 ve Cynodon dactylon 10.14 pieces/m². The weed species Cuscuta campestris Yunck. which is very common in the control plots of the broad bean experimental area, was calculated as 11.94 units/m². It was determined that C. campestris alone caused significant yield and quality loss in broad beans. In this study, it was determined that the most effective method in reducing the weed population was hand hoeing, followed by pre-emergence pendimethalin and post-emergence herbicide with Imazamox active substance. In terms of the effect of these control applications on the pod yield, the hand hoeing application ranked first, the pendimethalin application ranked second, the Imazamox application ranked third, and the control 2 and control 1 plot took the last place.

Keywords: broad bean, weed, struggle, yield

Procedia PDF Downloads 103
9096 Financial Market Reaction to Non-Financial Reports

Authors: Petra Dilling

Abstract:

This study examines the market reaction to the publication of integrated reports for a sample of 316 global companies for the reporting year 2018. Applying event study methodology, we find significant cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) after the publication date. To ensure robust estimation resultsthe three-factor model, according to Fama and French, is used as well as a market-adjusted model, a CAPM and a Frama-French model taking GARCH effects into account. We find a significant positive CAAR after the publication day of the integrated report. Our results suggest that investors react to information provided in the integrated report and that they react differently to the annual financial report. Furthermore, our cross-sectional analysis confirms that companies with a significant positive cumulative average abnormal show certain characteristic. It was found that European companies have a higher likelihood to experience a stronger significant positive market reaction to their integrated report publication.

Keywords: integrated report, event methodology, cumulative abnormal return, sustainability, CAPM

Procedia PDF Downloads 159
9095 Anthropometric Profile and Its Influence on the Vital Signs of Baja California College Students

Authors: J. A. Lopez, J. E. Olguin, C. Camargo, G. A. Quijano, R. Martinez

Abstract:

An anthropometric study applied to 1,115 students of the Faculty of Chemical Sciences and Engineering of the Autonomous University of California. Thirteen individual measurements were taken in a sitting position. The results obtained allow forming a reliable anthropometric database for statistical studies and analysis and inferences of specific distributions, so the opinion of experts in occupational medicine recommendations may emit to reduce risks resulting in an alteration of the vital signs during the execution of their school activities. Another use of these analyses is to use them as a reliable reference for future deeper research, to the design of spaces, tools, utensils, workstations, with anthropometric dimensions and ergonomic characteristics suitable to use.

Keywords: anthropometry, vital signs, students, medicine

Procedia PDF Downloads 388