Search results for: multidimensional self concept model (MSCM)

Authors: Dejana Bouillet, Vlatka Domović

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Both policymakers and researchers recognize that participating in early childhood education and care (ECEC) is useful for all children, especially for those who are exposed to the high risk of social exclusion. Social exclusion of children is understood as a multidimensional construct including economic, social, cultural, health, and other aspects of disadvantage and deprivation, which individually or combined can have an unfavorable effect on the current life and development of a child, as well as on the child’s development and on disadvantaged life chances in adult life. ECEC institutions should be able to promote educational approaches that portray developmental, cultural, language, and other diversity amongst children. However, little is known about the ways in which Croatian ECEC institutions recognize and respect the diversity of children and their families and how they respond to their educational needs. That is why this paper is dedicated to the analysis of the capacities of ECEC professionals to respond to the demands of educational needs of this very diverse group of children and their families. The results obtained in the frame of the project “Models of response to educational needs of children at risk of social exclusion in ECEC institutions,” funded by the Croatian Science Foundation, will be presented. The research methodology arises from explanations of educational processes and risks of social exclusion as a complex and heterogeneous phenomenon. The preliminary results of the qualitative data analysis of educational practices regarding capacities to identify and appropriately respond to the requirements of children at risk of social exclusion will be presented. The data have been collected by interviewing educational staff in 10 Croatian ECEC institutions (n = 10). The questions in the interviews were related to various aspects of inclusive institutional policy, culture, and practices. According to the analysis, it is possible to conclude that Croatian ECEC professionals are still faced with great challenges in the process of implementation of inclusive policies, culture, and practices. There are several baselines of this conclusion. The interviewed educational professionals are not familiar enough with the whole complexity and diversity of needs of children at risk of social exclusion, and the ECEC institutions do not have enough resources to provide all interventions that these children and their families need.

Keywords: children at risk of social exclusion, ECEC professionals, inclusive policies, culture and practices, quallitative analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Jie Ji, Jing Xu, Yuehong Zhuang, Xiangqing Kang, Ying Qian, Ping Zhou, Di Xue

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Background: In 2014, there were 28,341 health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai and the number per 1000 population was 5.199, 55.55% higher than that in 2006. But it was always less than the average number of health professionals per 1000 population in Shanghai from 2006 to 2014. Therefore, allocation planning for the health professionals in Pudong new area has become a high priority task in order to meet the future demands of health care. In this study, we constructed an objective-based system dynamics model to forecast the number of health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai in 2020. Methods: We collected the data from health statistics reports and previous survey of human resources in Pudong new area of Shanghai. Nine experts, who were from health administrative departments, public hospitals and community health service centers, were consulted to estimate the current and future status of nine variables used in the system dynamics model. Based on the objective of the number of health professionals per 1000 population (8.0) in Shanghai for 2020, the system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed to forecast the number of health professionals needed in Pudong new area in 2020. Results: The system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed. The model forecasted that there will be 37,330 health professionals (6.433 per 1000 population) in 2020. If the success rate of health professional recruitment changed from 20% to 70%, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.919. If this rate changed from 20% to 70% and the success rate of building new beds changed from 5% to 30% at the same time, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.923. Conclusions: The system dynamics model could be used to simulate and forecast the health professionals. But, if there were no significant changes in health policies and management system, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would not reach the objectives in Pudong new area in 2020.

Keywords: allocation planning, forecast, health professional, system dynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 386

Authors: Poramatdha Chutimant

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The objective of the research was to propose a model of teacher leadership in history instruction for utilization. Everett M. Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations Theory is applied as theoretical framework. Qualitative method is to be used in the study, and the interview protocol used as an instrument to collect primary data from best practices who awarded by Office of National Education Commission (ONEC). Open-end questions will be used in interview protocol in order to gather the various data. Then, information according to international context of history instruction is the secondary data used to support in the summarizing process (Content Analysis). Dendrogram is a key to interpret and synthesize the primary data. Thus, secondary data comes as the supportive issue in explanation and elaboration. In-depth interview is to be used to collected information from seven experts in educational field. The focal point is to validate a draft model in term of future utilization finally.

Keywords: history study, nationalism, patriotism, responsible citizenship, teacher leadership

Procedia PDF Downloads 280

Authors: Armin Bodaghkhani, Bruce Colbourne, Yuri S. Muzychka

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The process of spray-cloud formation and flow kinematics produced from breaking wave impact on vertical and slant lab-scale bow-shaped models were experimentally investigated. Bubble Image Velocimetry (BIV) and Image Processing (IP) techniques were applied to study the various types of wave-model impacts. Different wave characteristics were generated in a tow tank to investigate the effects of wave characteristics, such as wave phase velocity, wave steepness on droplet velocities, and behavior of the process of spray cloud formation. The phase ensemble-averaged vertical velocity and turbulent intensity were computed. A high-speed camera and diffused LED backlights were utilized to capture images for further post processing. Various pressure sensors and capacitive wave probes were used to measure the wave impact pressure and the free surface profile at different locations of the model and wave-tank, respectively. Droplet sizes and velocities were measured using BIV and IP techniques to trace bubbles and droplets in order to measure their velocities and sizes by correlating the texture in these images. The impact pressure and droplet size distributions were compared to several previously experimental models, and satisfactory agreements were achieved. The distribution of droplets in front of both models are demonstrated. Due to the highly transient process of spray formation, the drag coefficient for several stages of this transient displacement for various droplet size ranges and different Reynolds number were calculated based on the ensemble average method. From the experimental results, the slant model produces less spray in comparison with the vertical model, and the droplet velocities generated from the wave impact with the slant model have a lower velocity as compared with the vertical model.

Keywords: spray charachteristics, droplet size and velocity, wave-body interactions, bubble image velocimetry, image processing

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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This talk presents a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. We establish that the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters and future values is well defined. The associated MCMC algorithm for parameter estimation and forecasting converges to the posterior distribution quickly. We also present a combining forecasts technique to produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts by using a weighted sequence of fitted QAR models. A moving window method to check the quality of the estimated conditional quantiles is developed. We verify our methodology using simulation studies and then apply it to currency exchange rate data. An application of the method to the USD to GBP daily currency exchange rates will also be discussed. The results obtained show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, quantile modelling, quantile forecasting, predictive density functions

Procedia PDF Downloads 347

Authors: M. S. Mousavi-Daramoroudi, H. Yousefnia, S. Zolghadri, F. Abbasi-Davani

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Dosimetry is an indispensable and precious factor in patient treatment planning; to minimize the absorbed dose in vital tissues. In this study, In accordance with the proper characteristics of DOTATOC and ¹⁷⁷Lu, after preparing ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC at the optimal conditions for the first time in Iran, radionuclidic and radiochemical purity of the solution was investigated using an HPGe spectrometer and ITLC method, respectively. The biodistribution of the compound was assayed for treatment of adenocarcinoma breast cancer in bearing BALB/c mice. The results have demonstrated that ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC is a profitable selection for therapy of the tumors. Because of the vital role of internal dosimetry before and during therapy, the effort to improve the accuracy and rapidity of dosimetric calculations is necessary. For this reason, a new method was accomplished to calculate the absorbed dose through mixing between compartmental model, animal dosimetry and extrapolated data from animal to human and using MIRD method. Despite utilization of compartmental model based on the experimental data, it seems this approach may increase the accuracy of dosimetric data, confidently.

Keywords: ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC, biodistribution modeling, compartmental model, internal dosimetry

Procedia PDF Downloads 220

Authors: Adesuyi Ayodeji Steve, Zahn Munch

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This study investigates the use of MODIS NDVI to identify agricultural land cover change areas on an annual time step (2007 - 2012) and characterize the trend in the study area. An ISODATA classification was performed on the MODIS imagery to select only the agricultural class producing 3 class groups namely: agriculture, agriculture/semi-natural, and semi-natural. NDVI signatures were created for the time series to identify areas dominated by cereals and vineyards with the aid of ancillary, pictometry and field sample data. The NDVI signature curve and training samples aided in creating a decision tree model in WEKA 3.6.9. From the training samples two classification models were built in WEKA using decision tree classifier (J48) algorithm; Model 1 included ISODATA classification and Model 2 without, both having accuracies of 90.7% and 88.3% respectively. The two models were used to classify the whole study area, thus producing two land cover maps with Model 1 and 2 having classification accuracies of 77% and 80% respectively. Model 2 was used to create change detection maps for all the other years. Subtle changes and areas of consistency (unchanged) were observed in the agricultural classes and crop practices over the years as predicted by the land cover classification. 41% of the catchment comprises of cereals with 35% possibly following a crop rotation system. Vineyard largely remained constant over the years, with some conversion to vineyard (1%) from other land cover classes. Some of the changes might be as a result of misclassification and crop rotation system.

Keywords: change detection, land cover, modis, NDVI

Procedia PDF Downloads 402

Authors: Cristian Păuna

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After the widespread release of electronic trading, automated trading systems have become a significant part of the business intelligence system of any modern financial investment company. An important part of the trades is made completely automatically today by computers using mathematical algorithms. The trading decisions are taken almost instantly by logical models and the orders are sent by low-latency automatic systems. This paper will present a real-time price prediction methodology designed especially for algorithmic trading. Based on the price cyclicality function, the methodology revealed will generate price cyclicality bands to predict the optimal levels for the entries and exits. In order to automate the trading decisions, the cyclicality bands will generate automated trading signals. We have found that the model can be used with good results to predict the changes in market behavior. Using these predictions, the model can automatically adapt the trading signals in real-time to maximize the trading results. The paper will reveal the methodology to optimize and implement this model in automated trading systems. After tests, it is proved that this methodology can be applied with good efficiency in different timeframes. Real trading results will be also displayed and analyzed in order to qualify the methodology and to compare it with other models. As a conclusion, it was found that the price prediction model using the price cyclicality function is a reliable trading methodology for algorithmic trading in the financial market.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, financial markets, high-frequency trading, price prediction

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Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto

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Recently, feedback control systems using random dither quantizers have been proposed for linear discrete-time systems. However, the constraints imposed on state and control variables have not yet been taken into account for the design of feedback control systems with random dither quantization. Model predictive control is a kind of optimal feedback control in which control performance over a finite future is optimized with a performance index that has a moving initial and terminal time. An important advantage of model predictive control is its ability to handle constraints imposed on state and control variables. Based on the model predictive control approach, the objective of this paper is to present a control method that satisfies probabilistic state constraints for linear discrete-time feedback control systems with random dither quantization. In other words, this paper provides a method for solving the optimal control problems subject to probabilistic state constraints for linear discrete-time feedback control systems with random dither quantization.

Keywords: optimal control, stochastic systems, random dither, quantization

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Authors: Niveen Hassan-Abbas, Tammie Ronen-Rosenbaum

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Background and purpose: 'Flourishing in marriage' is a concept refers to married individuals’ high positivity ratio regarding their marriage, namely greater reported positive than negative emotions. The study proposes a different approach to marriage which emphasizes the place of the individual himself as largely responsible for his personal flourishing within marriage. Accordingly, the individual's desire to preserve and strengthen his marriage largely determines the marital behavior in a way that will contribute to his marriage success (Actor Effect), regardless the contribution of his or her partner to his marriage success (Partner Effect). Another assumption was that flourishing in marriage could be achieved by two separate processes, where capitalization support increases the positive marriage's evaluations and accommodation decreases the negative one. A theoretical model was constructed, whereby individuals who were committed to their marriage were hypothesized as employing self-control skills by way of two dynamic processes. First, individual’s higher degree of 'capitalization supportive responses' - supportive responses to the partner's sharing of positive personal experiences - was hypothesized as increasing one’s positive evaluations of marriage and thereby one’s positivity ratio. Second, individual’s higher degree of 'accommodation' responses - the ability during conflict situations to control the impulse to respond destructively and instead to respond constructively - was hypothesized as decreasing one’s negative evaluations of marriage and thereby increasing one’s positivity ratio. Methods: Participants were 156 heterosexual Arab couples from different regions of Israel. The mean period of marriage was 10.19 (SD=7.83), ages were 31.53 years for women (SD=8.12) and 36.80 years for men (SD=8.07). Years of education were 13.87 for women (SD=2.84) and 13.23 years for men (SD=3.45). Each participant completed seven questionnaires: socio-demographic, self-control skills, commitment, capitalization support, accommodation, marital quality, positive and negative affect. Using statistical analyses adapted to dyadic research design, firstly descriptive statistics were calculated and preliminary tests were performed. Next, dyadic model based on the Actor-Partner Interdependence Model (APIM) were tested using structural equation modeling (SEM). Results: The assumption according to which flourishing in marriage can be achieved by two processes was confirmed. All of the Actor Effect hypotheses were confirmed. Participants with higher self-control used more capitalization support and accommodation responses. Among husbands, unlike wives, these correlations were stronger when the individual's commitment level was higher. More capitalization supportive responses were found to increase positive evaluations of marriage, and greater spousal accommodation was found to decrease negative evaluations of marriage. High positive evaluations and low negative evaluations were found to increase positivity ratio. Not according to expectation, four partner effect paths were found significant. Conclusions and Implications: The present findings coincide with the positive psychology approach that emphasizes human strengths. The uniqueness of this study is its proposal that individuals are largely responsible for their personal flourishing in marriage. This study demonstrated that marital flourishing can be achieved by two processes, where capitalization increases the positive and accommodation decreases the negative. Practical implications include the need to construct interventions that enhance self-control skills for employment of capitalizing responsiveness and accommodation processes.

Keywords: accommodation, capitalization support, commitment, flourishing in marriage, positivity ratio, self-control skills

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Delaram Hosseinioun

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In their collections, Shirin Neshat, Mitra Tabrizian, Gohar Dashti and Newsha Tavakolian adopt a hybrid form of narrative to confront the restrictions imposed on women in hegemonic public and private spaces. Focusing on motives such as social marginalisation, crisis of belonging, as well as lack of agency for women, the artists depict the regression of women’s rights in their respective generations. Based on the ideas of Michael Bakhtin, namely his concept of polyphony or the plurality of contradictory voices, the views of Judith Butler on giving an account to oneself and Henri Leverbre’s theories on social space, this study illustrates the artists’ concept of identity in crisis through time and space. The research explores how the artists took their art as a novel dimension to depict and confront the hardships imposed on Iranian women. Henri Lefebvre makes a distinction between complex social structures through which individuals situate, perceive and represent themselves. By adding Bakhtin’s polyphonic view to Lefebvre’s concepts of perceived and lived spaces, the study explores the sense of social fragmentation in the works of Dashti and Tavakolian. One argument is that as the representatives of the contemporary generation of female artists who spend their lives in Iran and faced a higher degree of restrictions, their hyperbolic and theatrical styles stand as a symbolic act of confrontation against restrictive socio-cultural norms imposed on women. Further, the research explores the possibility of reclaiming one's voice and sense of agency through art, corresponding with the Bakhtinian sense of polyphony and Butler’s concept of giving an account to oneself. Works of Neshat and Tabrizian as the representatives of the previous generation who faced exile and diaspora, encompass a higher degree of misplacement, violence and decay of women’s presence. In Their works, the women’s body encompasses Lefebvre’s dismantled temporal and special setting. Notably, the ongoing social conviction and gender-based dogma imposed on women frame some of the concurrent motives among the selected collections of the four artists. By applying an interdisciplinary lens and integrating the conducted interviews with the artists, the study illustrates how the artists seek a transcultural account for themselves and women in their generations. Further, the selected collections manifest the urgency for an authentic and liberal voice and setting for women, resonating with the concurrent Women, Life, Freedom movement in Iran.

Keywords: persian modern female photographers, transcultural studies, shirin neshat, mitra tabrizian, gohar dashti, newsha tavakolian, butler, bakhtin, lefebvre

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Niya Chen, Jennifer Chan

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In the financial market, risk management helps to minimize potential loss and maximize profit. There are two ways to assess risks; the first way is to calculate the risk directly based on the volatility. The most common risk measurements are Value at Risk (VaR), sharp ratio, and beta. Alternatively, we could look at the quantile of the return to assess the risk. Popular return models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) focus on modeling the mean of the return distribution via capturing the volatility dynamics; however, the quantile/expectile method will give us an idea of the distribution with the extreme return value. It will allow us to forecast VaR using return which is direct information. The advantage of using these non-parametric methods is that it is not bounded by the distribution assumptions from the parametric method. But the difference between them is that expectile uses a second-order loss function while quantile regression uses a first-order loss function. We consider several quantile functions, different volatility measures, and estimates from some volatility models. To estimate the expectile of the model, we use Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) model with the bayesian method to achieve this. We would like to see if our proposed models outperform existing models in cryptocurrency, and we will test it by using Bitcoin mainly as well as Ethereum.

Keywords: expectile, CARE Model, CARR Model, quantile, cryptocurrency, Value at Risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 110

Authors: Abdelhadi Elharfi

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A problem of boundary feedback (exponential) stabilization of an overhead crane model represented by a PDE is considered. For any $r>0$, the exponential stability at the desired decay rate $r$ is solved in semi group setting by a collocated-type stabiliser of a target system combined with a term involving the solution of an appropriate PDE.

Keywords: feedback stabilization, semi group and generator, overhead crane system

Procedia PDF Downloads 406

Authors: Nicola Rubino

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This paper presents an analysis of a group of commodity exporting countries' nominal exchange rate movements in relationship to the US dollar. Using a series of Unrestricted Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive models (SETAR), we model and evaluate sixteen national CPI price differentials relative to the US dollar CPI. Out-of-sample forecast accuracy is evaluated through calculation of mean absolute error measures on the basis of two-hundred and fifty-three months rolling window forecasts and extended to three additional models, namely a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTAR), an additive non linear autoregressive model (AAR) and a simple linear Neural Network model (NNET). Our preliminary results confirm presence of some form of TAR non linearity in the majority of the countries analyzed, with a relatively higher goodness of fit, with respect to the linear AR(1) benchmark, in five countries out of sixteen considered. Although no model appears to statistically prevail over the other, our final out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that SETAR models tend to have quite poor relative forecasting performance, especially when compared to alternative non-linear specifications. Finally, by analyzing the implied half-lives of the > coefficients, our results confirms the presence, in the spirit of arbitrage band adjustment, of band convergence with an inner unit root behaviour in five of the sixteen countries analyzed.

Keywords: transition regression model, real exchange rate, nonlinearities, price differentials, PPP, commodity points

Procedia PDF Downloads 278

Authors: Ezeamagu M.U, Madu B.C

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This study was designed to investigate the efficacy of 5Es constructivist-based instructional model on students’ retention in primary Mathematics. 5Es stands for Engagement, Exploration, Explanation, Elaboration and Evaluation. The study adopted the pre test post test non-equivalent control group quasi-experimental research design. The sample size for the study was one hundred and thirty four pupils (134), seventy six male (76) and fifty eight female (58) from two primary schools in Nsukka education zone. Two intact classes in each of the sampled schools comprising all the primary four pupils were used. Each of the schools was given the opportunity of being assigned randomly to either experimental or control group. The Experimental group was taught using 5Es model while the control group was taught using the conventional method. Two research questions were formulated to guide the study and three hypotheses were tested at p ≤ 0. 05. A Fraction Achievement Test (FAT) of ten (10) questions were used to obtain data on pupils’ retention. Research questions were answered using mean and standard deviation while hypotheses were tested using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). The result revealed that the 5Es model was more effective than the conventional method of teaching in enhancing pupils’ performance and retention in mathematics, secondly there is no significant difference in the mean retention scores of male and female students taught using 5Es instructional model. Based on the findings, it was recommended among other things, that the 5Es instructional model should be adopted in the teaching of mathematics in primary level of the educational system. Seminar, workshops and conferences should be mounted by professional bodies, federal and state ministries of education on the use of 5Es model. This will enable the mathematics educator, serving teachers, students and all to benefit from the approach.

Keywords: constructivist, education, mathematics, primary, retention

Procedia PDF Downloads 451

Authors: Dimitrios Kafetzopoulos

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Nowadays, companies are more concerned with adopting their own strategies for increased efficiency and sustainability. Dynamic environments are fertile fields for developing operational changes. For this purpose, organizations need to implement an advanced management philosophy that boosts changes to companies’ operation. Changes refer to new applications of knowledge, ideas, methods, and skills that can generate unique capabilities and leverage an organization’s competitiveness. So, in order to survive and compete in the global and niche markets, companies should incorporate the adoption of operational changes into their strategy with regard to their products and their processes. Creating the appropriate culture for changes in terms of products and processes helps companies to gain a sustainable competitive advantage in the market. Thus, the purpose of this study is to investigate the role of both incremental and radical changes into operations of a company, taking into consideration not only product changes but also process changes, and continues by measuring the impact of these two types of changes on business efficiency and sustainability of Greek manufacturing companies. The above discussion leads to the following hypotheses: H1: Radical operational changes have a positive impact on firm efficiency. H2: Incremental operational changes have a positive impact on firm efficiency. H3: Radical operational changes have a positive impact on firm sustainability. H4: Incremental operational changes have a positive impact on firm sustainability. In order to achieve the objectives of the present study, a research study was carried out in Greek manufacturing firms. A total of 380 valid questionnaires were received while a seven-point Likert scale was used to measure all the questionnaire items of the constructs (radical changes, incremental changes, efficiency and sustainability). The constructs of radical and incremental operational changes, each one as one variable, has been subdivided into product and process changes. Non-response bias, common method variance, multicollinearity, multivariate normal distribution and outliers have been checked. Moreover, the unidimensionality, reliability and validity of the latent factors were assessed. Exploratory Factor Analysis and Confirmatory Factor Analysis were applied to check the factorial structure of the constructs and the factor loadings of the items. In order to test the research hypotheses, the SEM technique was applied (maximum likelihood method). The goodness of fit of the basic structural model indicates an acceptable fit of the proposed model. According to the present study findings, radical operational changes and incremental operational changes significantly influence both efficiency and sustainability of Greek manufacturing firms. However, it is in the dimension of radical operational changes, meaning those in process and product, that the most significant contributors to firm efficiency are to be found, while its influence on sustainability is low albeit statistically significant. On the contrary, incremental operational changes influence sustainability more than firms’ efficiency. From the above, it is apparent that the embodiment of the concept of the changes into the products and processes operational practices of a firm has direct and positive consequences for what it achieves from efficiency and sustainability perspective.

Keywords: incremental operational changes, radical operational changes, efficiency, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Jason West

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Low profitability in agriculture production along with increasing scrutiny over environmental effects is limiting food production at scale. In contrast, the mining sector offers access to resources including energy, water, transport and chemicals for food production at low marginal cost. Scalable agricultural production can benefit from the nexus of resources (water, energy, transport) offered by mining activity in remote locations. A decision support bioeconomic model for controlled environment vertical farms was used. Four submodels were used: crop structure, nutrient requirements, resource-crop integration, and economic. They escalate to a macro mathematical model. A demonstrable dynamic systems framework is needed to prove productive outcomes are feasible. We demonstrate a generalized bioeconomic macro model for controlled environment production systems in minesites using systems dynamics modeling methodology. Despite the complexity of bioeconomic modelling of resource-agricultural dynamic processes and interactions, the economic potential greater than general economic models would assume. Scalability of production as an input becomes a key success feature.

Keywords: crop production systems, mathematical model, mining, agriculture, dynamic systems

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Authors: Dino Carpentras, Alejandro Dinkelberg, Michael Quayle

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Opinion dynamics models use an agent-based modeling approach to model people’s opinions. Model's properties are usually explored by testing the two 'degrees of freedom': the interaction rule and the network topology. The latter defines the connection, and thus the possible interaction, among agents. The interaction rule, instead, determines how agents select each other and update their own opinion. Here we show the existence of the third degree of freedom. This can be used for turning one model into each other or to change the model’s output up to 100% of its initial value. Opinion dynamics models represent the evolution of real-world opinions parsimoniously. Thus, it is fundamental to know how real-world opinion (e.g., supporting a candidate) could be turned into a number. Specifically, we want to know if, by choosing a different opinion-to-number transformation, the model’s dynamics would be preserved. This transformation is typically not addressed in opinion dynamics literature. However, it has already been studied in psychometrics, a branch of psychology. In this field, real-world opinions are converted into numbers using abstract objects called 'scales.' These scales can be converted one into the other, in the same way as we convert meters to feet. Thus, in our work, we analyze how this scale transformation may affect opinion dynamics models. We perform our analysis both using mathematical modeling and validating it via agent-based simulations. To distinguish between scale transformation and measurement error, we first analyze the case of perfect scales (i.e., no error or noise). Here we show that a scale transformation may change the model’s dynamics up to a qualitative level. Meaning that a researcher may reach a totally different conclusion, even using the same dataset just by slightly changing the way data are pre-processed. Indeed, we quantify that this effect may alter the model’s output by 100%. By using two models from the standard literature, we show that a scale transformation can transform one model into the other. This transformation is exact, and it holds for every result. Lastly, we also test the case of using real-world data (i.e., finite precision). We perform this test using a 7-points Likert scale, showing how even a small scale change may result in different predictions or a number of opinion clusters. Because of this, we think that scale transformation should be considered as a third-degree of freedom for opinion dynamics. Indeed, its properties have a strong impact both on theoretical models and for their application to real-world data.

Keywords: degrees of freedom, empirical validation, opinion scale, opinion dynamics

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Authors: Tauha Hussain Ali, Shabir Hussain Khahro, Nafees Ahmed Memon

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Accurate prediction of project time for planning and bid preparation stage should contain realistic dates. Constructors use their experience to estimate the project duration for the new projects, which is based on intuitions. It has been a constant concern to both researchers and constructors to analyze the accurate prediction of project duration for bid preparation stage. In Pakistan, such study for time cost relationship has been lacked to predict duration performance for the construction projects. This study is an attempt to explore the time cost relationship that would conclude with a mathematical model to predict the time for the drainage rehabilitation projects in the province of Sindh, Pakistan. The data has been collected from National Engineering Services (NESPAK), Pakistan and regression analysis has been carried out for the analysis of results. Significant relationship has been found between time and cost of the construction projects in Sindh and the generated mathematical model can be used by the constructors to predict the project duration for the upcoming projects of same nature. This study also provides the professionals with a requisite knowledge to make decisions regarding project duration, which is significantly important to win the projects at the bid stage.

Keywords: BTC Model, project time, relationship of time cost, regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 382

Authors: Cafer Görkem Pınar, İlker Coşar, Serkan Uzun, Atahan Çelebi, Mehmet Ali Ersoy, Ali Pınarbaşı

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In this study, it was numerically investigated that a 1:1 scale model of the Renault Clio MK4 SW brand vehicle aerodynamic analysis was performed in the commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) package program of ANSYS CFX 2021 R1 under steady, subsonic, and 3-D conditions. The model of vehicle used for the analysis was made independent of the number of mesh elements, and the k-epsilon turbulence model was applied during the analysis. Results were interpreted as streamlines, pressure gradient, and turbulent kinetic energy contours around the vehicle at 50 km/h and 100 km/h speeds. In addition, the validity of the analysis was decided by comparing the drag coefficient of the vehicle with the values in the literature. As a result, the pressure gradient contours of the taillight of the Renault Clio MK4 SW vehicle were examined, and the behavior of the total force at speeds of 50 km/h and 100 km/h was interpreted.

Keywords: CFD, k-epsilon, aerodynamics, drag coefficient, taillight

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Authors: Arnab Mondal, Sanjeev Kumar Sharma, Ranjit Kumar Upadhyay

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We study the spatiotemporal dynamics of a neuronal cable. The processes of one- dimensional (1D) and 2D diffusion are considered for a single variable, which is the membrane voltage, i.e., membrane voltage diffusively interacts for spatiotemporal pattern formalism. The recovery and other variables interact through the membrane voltage. A 3D Leech-Heart (LH) model is introduced to investigate the nonlinear responses of an excitable neuronal cable. The deterministic LH model shows different types of firing properties. We explore the parameter space of the uncoupled LH model and based on the bifurcation diagram, considering v_k2_ashift as a bifurcation parameter, we analyze the 1D diffusion dynamics in three regimes: bursting, regular spiking, and a quiescent state. Depending on parameters, it is shown that the diffusive system may generate regular and irregular bursting or spiking behavior. Further, it is explored a 2D diffusion acting on the membrane voltage, where different types of patterns can be observed. The results show that the LH neurons with different firing characteristics depending on the control parameters participate in a collective behavior of an information processing system that depends on the overall network.

Keywords: bifurcation, pattern formation, spatio-temporal dynamics, stability analysis

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Authors: Marine Segui, Ruxandra Mihaela Botez

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OpenVSP is an aerodynamic solver developed by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) that allows building a reliable model of an aircraft. This software performs an aerodynamic simulation according to the angle of attack of the aircraft makes between the incoming airstream, and its speed. A reliable aerodynamic model of the Cessna Citation X was designed but it required a lot of computation time. As a consequence, a prediction method was established that allowed predicting lift and drag coefficients for all Mach numbers and for all angles of attack, exclusively for stall conditions, from a computation of three angles of attack and only one Mach number. Aerodynamic coefficients given by the prediction method for a Cessna Citation X model were finally compared with aerodynamics coefficients obtained using a complete OpenVSP study.

Keywords: aerodynamic, coefficient, cruise, improving, longitudinal, openVSP, solver, time

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Authors: Mark Watson, J.-F. Bousquet, Adam Forget

Abstract:

A magnetic induction based underwater communication link is evaluated using an analytical model and a custom Finite-Difference Time-Domain (FDTD) simulation tool. The analytical model is based on the Sommerfeld integral, and a full-wave simulation tool evaluates Maxwell’s equations using the FDTD method in cylindrical coordinates. The analytical model and FDTD simulation tool are then compared and used to predict the system performance for various transmitter depths and optimum frequencies of operation. To this end, the system bandwidth, signal to noise ratio, and the magnitude of the induced voltage are used to estimate the expected channel capacity. The models show that in seawater, a relatively low-power and small coils may be capable of obtaining a throughput of 40 to 300 kbps, for the case where a transmitter is at depths of 1 to 3 m and a receiver is at a height of 1 m.

Keywords: magnetic induction, FDTD, underwater communication, Sommerfeld

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Authors: Adeniyi G. Adeogun, Bolaji F. Sule, Adebayo W. Salami, Michael O. Daramola

Abstract:

Estimation of water yield and water balance in a river catchment is critical to the sustainable management of water resources at watershed level in any country. Therefore, in the present study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) interfaced with Geographical Information System (GIS) was applied as a tool to predict water balance and water yield of a catchment area in Nigeria. The catchment area, which was 12,992km2, is located upstream Jebba hydropower dam in North central part of Nigeria. In this study, data on the observed flow were collected and compared with simulated flow using SWAT. The correlation between the two data sets was evaluated using statistical measures, such as, Nasch-Sucliffe Efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The model output shows a good agreement between the observed flow and simulated flow as indicated by NSE and R2, which were greater than 0.7 for both calibration and validation period. A total of 42,733 mm of water was predicted by the calibrated model as the water yield potential of the basin for a simulation period 1985 to 2010. This interesting performance obtained with SWAT model suggests that SWAT model could be a promising tool to predict water balance and water yield in sustainable management of water resources. In addition, SWAT could be applied to other water resources in other basins in Nigeria as a decision support tool for sustainable water management in Nigeria.

Keywords: GIS, modeling, sensitivity analysis, SWAT, water yield, watershed level

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Authors: Anna Ouskova Leonteva, Michel Risser, Anne Jeannin-Girardon, Pierre Parrend, Pierre Collet

Abstract:

This paper proposes an efficient optimization tool for an active magnetic regenerator (AMR) model, operating in two modes: magnetic refrigeration system (MRS) and thermo-magnetic generator (TMG). The aim of this optimizer is to improve the design of the AMR by applying a multi-physics multi-scales numerical model as a core of evaluation functions to achieve industrial requirements for refrigeration and energy conservation systems. Based on the multi-objective non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm 3 (NSGA3), it maximizes four different objectives: efficiency and power density for MRS and TMG. The main contribution of this work is in the simultaneously application of a CPU-parallel NSGA3 version to the AMR model in both modes for studying impact of control and design parameters on the performance. The parametric study of the optimization results are presented. The main conclusion is that the common (for TMG and MRS modes) optimal parameters can be found by the proposed tool.

Keywords: ecological refrigeration systems, active magnetic regenerator, thermo-magnetic generator, multi-objective evolutionary optimization, industrial optimization problem, real-world application

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Authors: Fazlul Karim, Esa Al-Islam

Abstract:

Many problems in oceanography and environmental sciences require the solution of shallow water equations on physical domains having curvilinear coastlines and abrupt changes of ocean depth near the shore. Finite-difference technique for the shallow water equations representing the boundary as stair step may give inaccurate results near the coastline where results are of greatest interest for various applications. This suggests the use of methods which are capable of incorporating the irregular boundary in coastal belts. At the same time, large velocity gradient is expected near the beach and islands as water depth vary abruptly near the coast. A nested numerical scheme with fine resolution is the best resort to enhance the numerical accuracy with the least grid numbers for the region of interests where the velocity changes rapidly and which is unnecessary for the away of the region. This paper describes the development of a boundary fitted nested grid (BFNG) model to compute tsunami propagation of 2004 Indonesian tsunami in Southern Thailand coastal waters. In this paper, we develop a numerical model employing the shallow water nested model and an orthogonal boundary fitted grid to investigate the tsunami impact on the Southern Thailand due to the Indonesian tsunami of 2004. Comparisons of water surface elevation obtained from numerical simulations and field measurements are made.

Keywords: Indonesian tsunami of 2004, Boundary-fitted nested grid model, Southern Thailand, finite difference method

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Authors: Juan Harold Sosa-Arnao, Daniel José de Oliveira Ferreira, Caice Guarato Santos, Justo Emílio Alvarez, Leonardo Paes Rangel, Song Won Park

Abstract:

A comprehensive CFD model is developed to represent heterogeneous combustion and two burner designs of supply sugar-cane bagasse into a furnace. The objective of this work is to compare the insertion and burning of a Brazilian south-eastern sugar-cane bagasse using a new swirl burner design against an actual geometry under operation. The new design allows control the particles penetration and scattering inside furnace by adjustment of axial/tangential contributions of air feed without change their mass flow. The model considers turbulence using RNG k-, combustion using EDM, radiation heat transfer using DTM with 16 ray directions and bagasse particle tracking represented by Schiller-Naumann model. The obtained results are favorable to use of new design swirl burner because its axial/tangential control promotes more penetration or more scattering than actual design and allows reproduce the actual design operation without change the overall mass flow supply.

Keywords: comprehensive CFD model, sugar-cane bagasse combustion, swirl burner, contributions

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Authors: Daniel S. Brox

Abstract:

Starting from earthquake fault dynamic equations, a correspondence between earthquake occurrence statistics in a seismic region before a major earthquake and eigenvalue statistics of a differential operator whose bound state eigenfunctions characterize the distribution of stress in the seismic region is derived. Modeling these eigenvalue statistics with a 2D Coulomb gas statistical physics model, previously reported deviation of seismic activation earthquake occurrence statistics from Gutenberg-Richter statistics in time intervals preceding the major earthquake is derived. It also explains how statistical physics modeling predicts a finite-dimensional nonlinear dynamic system that describes real-time velocity model evolution in the region undergoing seismic activation and how this prediction can be tested experimentally.

Keywords: seismic activation, statistical physics, geodynamics, signal processing

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Authors: Sawsan Eissa, Momen Gharib, Omnia Kabbany

Abstract:

A flushing numerical study has been performed for intended artificial islands on the Persian Gulf coast in Abu Dhabi, UAE. The island masterplan was tested for flushing using the DELFT 3D hydrodynamic model, and it was found that its residence time exceeds the acceptable PIANC flushing Criteria. Therefore, a number of mitigation measures were applied and tested one by one using the flushing model. Namely, changing the location of the entrance opening, dredging, removing part of the mangrove existing in the near vicinity to create a channel, removing the mangrove altogether, using culverts of different numbers and locations, and pumping at selected points. The pumping option gave the best solution, but it was disregarded due to high capital and running costs. Therefore, it opted for a combination of other solutions, including removing mangroves, introducing culverts, and adjusting island boundaries and types of protection.

Keywords: hydrodynamics, flushing, delft 3d, Persian Gulf, artificial islands.

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Authors: Jingwei Du

Abstract:

The need of optimizing air conditioning systems for existing buildings calls for control methods designed with energy-efficiency as a primary goal. The majority of current control methods boil down to two categories: empirical and model-based. To be effective, the former heavily relies on engineering expertise and the latter requires extensive historical data. Reinforcement Learning (RL), on the other hand, is a model-free approach that explores the environment to obtain an optimal control strategy often referred to as “policy”. This research adopts Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) to improve chiller plant control, and enable the RL agent to collaborate with experienced engineers. It exploits the fact that while the industry lacks historical data, abundant operational data is available and allows the agent to learn and evolve safely under human supervision. Thanks to the development of language models, renewed interest in RL has led to modern, online, policy-based RL algorithms such as the PPO. This research took inspiration from “alignment”, a process that utilizes human feedback to finetune the pretrained model in case of unsafe content. The methodology can be summarized into three steps. First, an initial policy model is generated based on minimal prior knowledge. Next, the prepared PPO agent is deployed so feedback from both critic model and human experts can be collected for future finetuning. Finally, the agent learns and adapts itself to the specific chiller plant, updates the policy model and is ready for the next iteration. Besides the proposed approach, this study also used traditional RL methods to optimize the same simulated chiller plants for comparison, and it turns out that the proposed method is safe and effective at the same time and needs less to no historical data to start up.

Keywords: chiller plant, control methods, energy efficiency, proximal policy optimization, reinforcement learning

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