Search results for: negative binomial model

Authors: Amartya Hatua, Trung Nguyen, Andrew Sung

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In this paper, we study the information diffusion process on Twitter as a multivariate time series problem. Our model concerns three measures (volume, network influence, and sentiment of tweets) based on 10 features, and we collected 27 million tweets to build our information diffusion time series dataset for analysis. Then, different time series clustering techniques with Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) distance were used to identify different patterns of information diffusion. Finally, we built the information diffusion prediction models for new hashtags which comprise two phrases: The first phrase is recognizing the pattern using k-NN with DTW distance; the second phrase is building the forecasting model using the traditional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and the non-linear recurrent neural network of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Preliminary results of performance evaluation between different forecasting models show that LSTM with clustering information notably outperforms other models. Therefore, our approach can be applied in real-world applications to analyze and predict the information diffusion characteristics of selected topics or memes (hashtags) in Twitter.

Keywords: ARIMA, DTW, information diffusion, LSTM, RNN, time series clustering, time series forecasting, Twitter

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Authors: Shohel Ahmed, Md. Abdul Alim, Sumaiya Rahman

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Optimal control can be helpful to test and compare different vaccination strategies of a certain disease. The mathematical model of HIV we consider here is a set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) describing the interactions of CD4+T cells of the immune system with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). As an early treatment setting, we investigate an optimal chemotherapy strategy where control represents the percentage of effect the chemotherapy has on the system. The aim is to obtain a new optimal chemotherapeutic strategy where an isoperimetric constraint on the chemotherapy supply plays a crucial role. We outline the steps in formulating an optimal control problem, derive optimality conditions and demonstrate numerical results of an optimal control for the model. Numerical results illustrate how such a constraint alters the optimal vaccination schedule and its effect on cell-virus interactions.

Keywords: chemotherapy of HIV, optimal control involving ODEs, optimality conditions, Pontryagin’s maximum principle

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Authors: Philippe Gugler

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This contribution reflects some important questions regarding inter alia the economic development occurring in the light of the ASEAN’s goal of creating the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by 2015. We observe a continuing economic growth of GDP per capita over recent years despite the negative effects of the world economic crisis. IMF forecasts indicate that this trend will continue. The paper focuses on the analysis and comparison of economic growth trends of ASEAN countries.

Keywords: ASEAN, convergence, divergence, economic growth, globalization, integration

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Authors: Homa Ghave, Parmis Shahmaleki

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This paper presents a new multi-criteria stochastic mathematical model for a single machine scheduling with outsourcing allowed. There are multiple jobs processing in batch. For each batch, all of job or a quantity of it can be outsourced. The jobs have stochastic processing time and lead time and deterministic due dates arrive randomly. Because of the stochastic inherent of processing time and lead time, we use the chance constrained programming for modeling the problem. First, the problem is formulated in form of stochastic programming and then prepared in a form of deterministic mixed integer linear programming. The objectives are considered in the model to minimize the maximum tardiness and outsourcing cost simultaneously. Several procedures have been developed to deal with the multi-criteria problem. In this paper, we utilize the concept of satisfaction functions to increases the manager’s preference. The proposed approach is tested on instances where the random variables are normally distributed.

Keywords: single machine scheduling, multi-criteria mathematical model, outsourcing strategy, uncertain lead times and processing times, chance constrained programming, satisfaction function

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Authors: A. Aulinger, A. M. Backes, J. Bieser, V. Matthias, M. Quante

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High concentrations of particles pose a threat to human health. Thus, legal maximum concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 in ambient air have been steadily decreased over the years. In central Europe, the inorganic species ammonium sulphate and ammonium nitrate make up a large fraction of fine particles. Many studies investigate the influence of emission reductions of sulfur- and nitrogen oxides on aerosol concentration. Here, we focus on the influence of ammonia (NH3) emissions. While emissions of sulphate and nitrogen oxides are quite well known, ammonia emissions are subject to high uncertainty. This is due to the uncertainty of location, amount, time of fertilizer application in agriculture, and the storage and treatment of manure from animal husbandry. For this study, we implemented a crop growth model into the SMOKE emission model. Depending on temperature, local legislation, and crop type individual temporal profiles for fertilizer and manure application are calculated for each model grid cell. Additionally, the diffusion from soils and plants and the direct release from open and closed barns are determined. The emission data was used as input for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Comparisons to observations from the EMEP measurement network indicate that the new ammonia emission module leads to a better agreement of model and observation (for both ammonia and ammonium). Finally, the ammonia emission model was used to create emission scenarios. This includes emissions based on future European legislation, as well as a dynamic evaluation of the influence of different agricultural sectors on particle formation. It was found that a reduction of ammonia emissions by 50% lead to a 24% reduction of total PM2.5 concentrations during winter time in the model domain. The observed reduction was mainly driven by reduced formation of ammonium nitrate. Moreover, emission reductions during winter had a larger impact than during the rest of the year.

Keywords: ammonia, ammonia abatement strategies, ctm, seasonal impact, secondary aerosol formation

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Authors: Mark Jackson

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Description: This paper is based on an theoretical analysis of the efficacy of the dominant model of policing in western jurisdictions. Those results are then compared with a similar analysis of a traditional reactive model. It is found that neither model provides for optimal delivery of services. Instead optimal service can be achieved by a synchronous hybrid model, termed the Convectory Policing approach. Methodology and Findings: For over three decades problem oriented policing (PO) has been the dominant model for western police agencies. Initially based on the work of Goldstein during the 1970s the problem oriented framework has spawned endless variants and approaches, most of which embrace a problem solving rather than a reactive approach to policing. This has included the Area Policing Concept (APC) applied in many smaller jurisdictions in the USA, the Scaled Response Policing Model (SRPM) currently under trial in Western Australia and the Proactive Pre-Response Approach (PPRA) which has also seen some success. All of these, in some way or another, are largely based on a model that eschews a traditional reactive model of policing. Convectory Policing (CP) is an alternative model which challenges the underpinning assumptions which have seen proliferation of the PO approach in the last three decades and commences by questioning the economics on which PO is based. It is argued that in essence, the PO relies on an unstated, and often unrecognised assumption that resources will be available to meet demand for policing services, while at the same time maintaining the capacity to deploy staff to develop solutions to the problems which were ultimately manifested in those same calls for service. The CP model relies on the observations from a numerous western jurisdictions to challenge the validity of that underpinning assumption, particularly in fiscally tight environment. In deploying staff to pursue and develop solutions to underpinning problems, there is clearly an opportunity cost. Those same staff cannot be allocated to alternative duties while engaged in a problem solution role. At the same time, resources in use responding to calls for service are unavailable, while committed to that role, to pursue solutions to the problems giving rise to those same calls for service. The two approaches, reactive and PO are therefore dichotomous. One cannot be optimised while the other is being pursued. Convectory Policing is a pragmatic response to the schism between the competing traditional and contemporary models. If it is not possible to serve either model with any real rigour, it becomes necessary to taper an approach to deliver specific outcomes against which success or otherwise might be measured. CP proposes that a structured roster-driven approach to calls for service, combined with the application of what is termed a resource-effect response capacity has the potential to resolve the inherent conflict between traditional and models of policing and the expectations of the community in terms of community policing based problem solving models.

Keywords: policing, reactive, proactive, models, efficacy

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Authors: Jinhoa Lee

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The relationships between environmental quality, energy use and economic output have created growing attention over the past decades among researchers and policy makers. Focusing on the empirical aspects of the role of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and energy use in affecting the economic output, this paper is an effort to fulfill the gap in a comprehensive case study at a country level using modern econometric techniques. To achieve the goal, this country-specific study examines the short-run and long-run relationships among energy consumption (using disaggregated energy sources: crude oil, coal, natural gas, and electricity), CO2 emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for Turkey using time series analysis from the year 1980-2010. To investigate the relationships between the variables, this paper employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for stationarity, Johansen’s maximum likelihood method for cointegration and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for both short- and long-run causality among the research variables for the sample. The long-run equilibrium in the VECM suggests no effects of the CO2 emissions and energy use on the GDP in Turkey. There exists a short-run bidirectional relationship between the electricity and natural gas consumption, and also there is a negative unidirectional causality running from the GDP to electricity use. Overall, the results partly support arguments that there are relationships between energy use and economic output; however, the effects may differ due to the source of energy such as in the case of Turkey for the period of 1980-2010. However, there is no significant relationship between the CO2 emissions and the GDP and between the CO2 emissions and the energy use both in the short term and long term.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, energy consumption, GDP, Turkey, time series analysis

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Authors: P. W. Chen, C. T. Chang, Y. Peng, J. Y. Wu, D. J. Jan, Md. Manirul Ali

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In the last decade, the nature of cathode spot splitting and the current per spot depended on an oblique magnetic field was investigated. This model for cathode current splitting is developed that we have investigated with relationship the magnetic pressures produced by kinetic pressure, self-magnetic pressure, and changed with an external magnetic field. We propose a theoretical model that has been established to an external magnetic field with components normal and tangential to the cathode surface influenced on magnetic pressure strength. We mainly focus on developed to understand the current per spot influenced with the tangential magnetic field strength and normal magnetic field strength.

Keywords: cathode spot, vacuum arc discharge, oblique magnetic field, tangential magnetic field

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Authors: Nasser Mohamed Ramli, Mohamad Syafiq Mohamad

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Many types of controllers were applied on the continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) unit to control the temperature. In this research paper, Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) controller are compared with Fuzzy Logic controller for temperature control of CSTR. The control system for temperature non-isothermal of a CSTR will produce a stable response curve to its set point temperature. A mathematical model of a CSTR using the most general operating condition was developed through a set of differential equations into S-function using MATLAB. The reactor model and S-function are developed using m.file. After developing the S-function of CSTR model, User-Defined functions are used to link to SIMULINK file. Results that are obtained from simulation and temperature control were better when using Fuzzy logic control compared to PID control.

Keywords: CSTR, temperature, PID, fuzzy logic

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Authors: Muhammad A. Alsubaie

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An iterative learning control framework designed in state feedback structure suffers a lack in investigating load disturbance considerations. The presented work discusses the controller previously designed, highlights the disturbance problem, finds new conditions using singular value principle to assure safe operation conditions with error convergence and reference tracking under the influence of load disturbance. It is known that periodic disturbances can be represented by a delay model in a positive feedback loop acting on the system input. This model can be manipulated by isolating the delay model and finding a controller for the overall system around the delay model to remedy the periodic disturbances using the small signal theorem. The overall system is the base for control design and load disturbance investigation. The major finding of this work is the load disturbance condition found which clearly sets safe operation condition under the influence of load disturbances such that the error tends to nearly zero as the system keeps operating trial after trial.

Keywords: iterative learning control, singular values, state feedback, load disturbance

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Authors: Danielle M. Barna, Kolbjørn Engeland, Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Chong-Yu Xu

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Design flood values give estimates of flood magnitude within a given return period and are essential to making adaptive decisions around land use planning, infrastructure design, and disaster mitigation. Often design flood values are needed at locations with insufficient data. Additionally, in hydrologic applications where flood retention is important (e.g., floodplain management and reservoir design), design flood values are required at different flood durations. A statistical approach to this problem is a development of a regression model for extremes where some of the parameters are dependent on flood duration in addition to being covariate-dependent. In hydrology, this is called a regional flood-duration-frequency (regional-QDF) model. Typically, the underlying statistical distribution is chosen to be the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. However, as the support of the GEV distribution depends on both its parameters and the range of the data, special care must be taken with the development of the regional model. In particular, we find that the GEV is problematic when developing a GAMLSS-type analysis due to the difficulty of proposing a link function that is independent of the unknown parameters and the observed data. We discuss these challenges in the context of developing a regional QDF model for Norway.

Keywords: design flood values, bayesian statistics, regression modeling of extremes, extreme value analysis, GEV

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Authors: Abeer N. Alshukairi, Abdulrahman A. Alrajhi, Abdulfattah W. Alamri, Adel F. Alothman

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We described the nosocomial transmission of a pre-XDR or an MDR case of pulmonary tuberculosis in a HIV negative health care worker in an area endemic for MDR & XDR tuberculosis. With inadequate therapy and non-compliance, his strain developed acquired resistance and he presented with extra-pulmonary XDR tuberculosis in the form of multi-focal osteomyelitis and encysted pleural effusion. He was cured after 2 years of therapy with various anti-tuberculous drugs in addition to interferon gamma.

Keywords: osteomyelitis, treatment, XDR tuberculosis, successful treatment

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Authors: Ratima Damkham, Natasha Dejdumrong, Priyakorn Pusawiro

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This paper explored the solution in game design to help game designers in the educational game designing using digital educational game model canvas (DEGMC) and digital educational game form (DEGF) based on Outcome-based Education program. DEGMC and DEGF can help designers develop an overview of the game while designing and planning their own game. The way to clearly assess players’ ability from learning outcomes and support their game learning design is by using the tools. Designers can balance educational content and entertainment in designing a game by using the strategies of the Business Model Canvas and design the gameplay and players’ ability assessment from learning outcomes they need by referring to the Constructive Alignment. Furthermore, they can use their design plan in this research to write their Game Design Document (GDD). The success of the research was evaluated by four experts’ perspectives in the education and computer field. From the experiments, the canvas and form helped the game designers model their game according to the learning outcomes and analysis of their own game elements. This method can be a path to research an educational game design in the future.

Keywords: constructive alignment, constructivist theory, educational game, outcome-based education

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Authors: Jan Schmidt, Pierre Köhring

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Permanently excited machines are set up with magnets that are made of highly energetic magnetic materials. Inherently, the permanent magnets warm up while the machine is operating. With an increasing temperature, the electromotive force and hence the degree of efficiency decrease. The reasons for this are slot harmonics and distorted armature currents arising from frequency inverter operation. To prevent or avoid demagnetizing of the permanent magnets it is necessary to ensure that the magnets do not excessively heat up. Demagnetizations of permanent magnets are irreversible and a breakdown of the electrical machine is inevitable. For the design of an electrical machine, the knowledge of the behavior of heating under operating conditions of the permanent magnet is of crucial importance. Therefore, a calculation model is presented with which the machine designer can easily calculate the eddy current losses in the magnetic material.

Keywords: analytical model, eddy current, losses, lattice network, permanent magnet

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Authors: Mahdi Zolfaghari, Seyed Hossein Hosseinian, Hossein Askarian Abyaneh, Mehrdad Abedi

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This paper presents a virtual active power filter (VAPF) using vehicle to grid (V2G) technology to maintain power quality requirements. The optimal discrete operation of the power converter of electric vehicle (EV) is based on recognizing desired switching states using the model predictive control (MPC) algorithm. A fast dynamic response, lower total harmonic distortion (THD) and good reference tracking performance are realized through the presented control strategy. The simulation results using MATLAB/Simulink validate the effectiveness of the scheme in improving power quality as well as good dynamic response in power transferring capability.

Keywords: electric vehicle, model predictive control, power quality, V2G technology, virtual active power filter

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Authors: Leonard Maaya, Michel Meulders, Martina Vandebroek

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Discrete Choice Experiments (DCE) are used to investigate how product attributes affect decision-makers’ choices. In DCEs, choice situations consisting of several alternatives are presented from which choice-makers select the preferred alternative. Standard multinomial logit models based on random utility theory can be used to estimate the utilities for the attributes. The overarching principle in these models is that respondents understand and use all the attributes when making choices. However, studies suggest that respondents sometimes ignore some attributes (commonly referred to as Attribute Non-Attendance/ANA). The choice modeling literature presents ANA as a static process, i.e., respondents’ ANA behavior does not change throughout the experiment. However, respondents may ignore attributes due to changing factors like availability of information on attributes, learning/fatigue in experiments, etc. We develop a dynamic mixture latent Markov model to model changes in ANA when information on attributes is provided. The model is illustrated on e-consumers’ webshop choices. The results indicate that the dynamic ANA model describes the behavioral changes better than modeling the impact of information using changes in parameters. Further, we find that providing information on attributes leads to an increase in the attendance probabilities for the investigated attributes.

Keywords: choice models, discrete choice experiments, dynamic models, e-commerce, statistical modeling

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Authors: Moise Alin Ionuț Cornel

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In a pilot lesson of prevention of consumption drugs in a classroom of teenager`s where the school want them to know how to manage their thoughts and emotions to protect themself an to be strong in an possible environment of drugs consumption. At this classroom was applied the RAIN(Recognize, Accept, Investigation,Non-identify) spiritual method and the balance model from positive and transcultural psychotherapy (PPT) in a manner of a game play for them to understand the methods in an individual experience. The balance model from PPT with his 4 parts and used in 3 ways, and the RAIN spiritual method was used to see how the teenager`s can bring clarity about theirs individual self and how they spend the time and energy in the daily life. The 3 ways of how they can used this model was explained like a analogy with the 3 periods of the SAKURA (Japanese cherry) flourish (kaika, mankai and chiru). The teenager`s received a new perspective and in the same time new tools from the spiritual point of view combined with the psychotherapeutic point of view to manage their thoughts, emotions, time and energy in the form of a psychoeducational game to be able to prevent the use of drugs.

Keywords: addiction, drugs consumption prevention education, psychotherapy, Self, Spirituality, teenagers

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Authors: Paul V. Thomas, Mostafa S. A. Elsayed, Denis Walch

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Airframe structural optimization at different design stages results in new mass and stiffness distributions which modify the critical design loads envelop. Determination of aircraft critical loads is an extensive analysis procedure which involves simulating the aircraft at thousands of load cases as defined in the certification requirements. It is computationally prohibitive to use a Global Finite Element Model (GFEM) for the load analysis, hence reduced order structural models are required which closely represent the dynamic characteristics of the GFEM. This paper presents the implementation of Component Mode Synthesis (CMS) method for the generation of high fidelity Reduced Order Model (ROM) of complex airframes. Here, sub-structuring technique is used to divide the complex higher order airframe dynamical system into a set of subsystems. Each subsystem is reduced to fewer degrees of freedom using matrix projection onto a carefully chosen reduced order basis subspace. The reduced structural matrices are assembled for all the subsystems through interface coupling and the dynamic response of the total system is solved. The CMS method is employed to develop the ROM of a Bombardier Aerospace business jet which is coupled with an aerodynamic model for dynamic aeroelasticity loads analysis under gust turbulence. Another set of dynamic aeroelastic loads is also generated employing a stick model of the same aircraft. Stick model is the reduced order modelling methodology commonly used in the aerospace industry based on stiffness generation by unitary loading application. The extracted aeroelastic loads from both models are compared against those generated employing the GFEM. Critical loads Modal participation factors and modal characteristics of the different ROMs are investigated and compared against those of the GFEM. Results obtained show that the ROM generated using Craig Bampton CMS reduction process has a superior dynamic characteristics compared to the stick model.

Keywords: component mode synthesis, craig bampton reduction method, dynamic aeroelasticity analysis, model order reduction

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Authors: E. Verduci, I. Aguglia, A. Filocamo, I. Macrì, R. Scala, A. Vinci

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One of the first indicator of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a decreasing tendency or failure to respond to name (RTN) call. Despite RTN is important for social and language developmentand it’s a common target for early interventions for children with ASD, research on specific treatments is insufficient and does not consider the importance of the discrimination between the own name and other names. The purpose of the current study was to replicate an assessment and treatment model proposed by Conine et al. (2020) to teach children with ASD to respond to their own name and to not respond to other names (RTO). The model includes three different phases (baseline/screening, treatment, and generalization), and itgradually introduces the different treatment components, starting with the most naturalistic ones (such as social interaction) and adding more intrusive components (such as tangible reinforcements, prompt and fading procedures) if necessary. The participants of this study were three children with ASD diagnosis: D. (5 years old) with a low frequency of RTN, M. (7 years old) with a RTN unstable and no ability of discrimination between his name and other names, S. (3 years old) with a strong RTN but a constant response to other names. Moreover, the treatment for D. and M. consisted of social and tangible reinforcements (treatment T1), for S. the purpose of the treatment was to teach the discrimination between his name and the others. For all participants, results suggest the efficacy of the model to acquire the ability to selectively respond to the own name and the generalization of the behavior with other people and settings.

Keywords: response to name, autism spectrum disorder, progressive training, ABA

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Authors: Patcharaporn Sakulpong, Wiriya Phokhwang

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Background: Banpunrug (Love Sharing House) established in 2013 provides a community-based palliative care for patients with cancer from 7 provinces in southern Thailand. These patients come to receive outpatient chemotherapy and radiotherapy at Suratthani Cancer Hospital. They are poor and uneducated; they need an accommodation during their 30-45 day course of therapy. Methods: A community-participatory action research (PAR) was employed to establish a model of palliative care for patients with cancer. The participants included health care providers, community, and patients and families. The PAR process includes problem identification and need assessment, community and team establishment, field survey, organization founding, model of care planning, action and inquiry (PDCA), outcome evaluation, and model distribution. Results: The model of care at Banpunrug involves the concepts of HHHS model, in that Banpunrug is a Home for patients; patients live in a house comfortable like in a Hotel resource; the patients are given care and living facilities similarly to those in a Hospital; the house is a School for patients to learn how to take care themselves, how to live well with cancer, and most importantly how to prepare themselves for a good death. The house is also a humanized care school for health care providers. Banpunrug’s philosophy of care is based on friendship therapy, social and spiritual support, community partnership, patient-family centeredness, Live & Love sharing house, and holistic and humanized care. With this philosophy, the house is managed as a home of the patients and everyone involved; everything is costless for all eligible patients and their family members; all facilities and living expense are donated from benevolent people, friends, and community. Everyone, including patients and family, has a sense of belonging to the house and there is no authority between health care providers and the patients in the house. The house is situated in a temple and a community and supported by many local nonprofit organizations and healthcare facilities such as a health promotion hospital at sub-disctrict level and Suratthani Cancer Hospital. Village health volunteers and multi-professional health care volunteers have contributed not only appropriate care, but also knowledge and experience to develop a distinguishing HHHS community-based palliative care model for patients with cancer. Since its opening the house has been a home for more than 400 patients and 300 family members. It is also a model for many national and international healthcare organizations and providers, who come to visit and learn about palliative care in and by community. Conclusions: The success of this palliative care model comes from community involvement, multi-professional volunteers and distributions, and concepts of HHHS model. Banpunrug promotes a consistent care across the cancer trajectory independent of prognosis in order to strengthen a full integration of palliative

Keywords: community-based palliative care, model, participatory action research, patients with cancer

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Authors: Zahid Ahmad, Nauman Ali

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This study has estimated the trade between USA and individual members of European Union using Gravity Model of Trade as The USA has a complex trade relationship with the European countries consist of a large number of consumers, which make USA dependent on EU for major of its total world trade. However, among the member of EU, the trade potential of USA with individual members of EU is not known. Panel data techniques e.g. Random Effect, Fixed Effect and Pooled Panel have been applied to secondary quantitative data to analyze the Trade between USA and EU. Trade Potential of USA with individual members of EU has been obtained using the ratio of Actual trade of USA with EU members and the trade as predicted by Gravity Model. The Study concluded that the USA has greater trade potential with 16 members of EU, including Croatia, Portugal and United Kingdom on top. On the other hand, Finland, Ireland, and France are the top countries with which the USA has exhaustive trade potential.

Keywords: analytical technique, economic, gravity, international trade, significant

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Authors: Siliang Luan, Zhongtai Jiang

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The risk of highway incidents is commonly recognized as a major concern for transportation authorities due to the hazardous consequences and negative influence. It is crucial to respond to these unpredictable events as soon as possible faced by emergency management decision makers. In this paper, we focus on path planning for emergency vehicles, one of the most significant processes to avoid congestion and reduce rescue time. A Mixed-Integer Linear Programming with Semi-Soft Time Windows Model (MIPSSTWM) is conducted to plan an optimal routing respectively considering the time consumption of arcs and nodes of the urban road network and the highway network, especially in developing countries with an enormous population. Here, the arcs indicate the road segments and the nodes include the intersections of the urban road network and the on-ramp and off-ramp of the highway networks. An attempt in this research has been made to develop a comprehensive and executive strategy for emergency vehicle routing in heavy traffic conditions. The proposed Cuckoo Search (CS) algorithm is designed by imitating obligate brood parasitic behaviors of cuckoos and Lévy Flights (LF) to solve this hard and combinatorial problem. Using a Chinese city as our case study, the numerical results demonstrate the approach we applied in this paper outperforms the previous method without considering the nodes of the road network for a real-world situation. Meanwhile, the accuracy and validity of the CS algorithm also show better performances than the traditional algorithm.

Keywords: emergency vehicle, path planning, cs algorithm, urban traffic management and urban planning

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Authors: Ayman M. Othman, Hassan Y. Ahmed, Tallat A. Ali

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Inadequate maintenance programs and funds allocated for highway networks in the developed countries have led to fast deterioration of road side elements. Therefore, this research focuses on developing a performance model for road side elements periodic maintenance activities. Road side elements that receive periodic maintenance include; earthen shoulder, road signs and traffic markings. Using the level of service concept, the developed model can determine the optimal periodic maintenance intervals for those elements based on a selected level of service suitable with the available periodic maintenance budget. Data related to time periods for progressive deterioration stages for the chosen elements were collected. Ten maintenance experts in Aswan, Sohag and Assiut cities were interviewed for that purpose. Time in months related to 10%, 25%, 40%, 50%, 75%, 90% and 100% deterioration of each road side element was estimated based on the experts opinion. Least square regression analysis has shown that a power function represents the best fit for earthen shoulders edge drop-off and damage of road signs with time. It was also evident that, the progressive dirtiness of road signs could be represented by a quadratic function an a linear function could represent the paint degradation nature of both traffic markings and road signs. Actual measurements of earthen shoulder edge drop-off agree considerably with the developed model.

Keywords: deterioration, level of service, periodic maintenance, performance model, road side element

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Authors: Femi Elegbeleye, Omobayo Esan, Muienge Mbodila, Patrick Bowe

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This paper focused on cost effective storage architecture using fog and cloud data storage gateway and presented the design of the framework for the data privacy model and data analytics framework on a real-time analysis when using machine learning method. The paper began with the system analysis, system architecture and its component design, as well as the overall system operations. The several results obtained from this study on data privacy model shows that when two or more data privacy model is combined we tend to have a more stronger privacy to our data, and when fog storage gateway have several advantages over using the traditional cloud storage, from our result shows fog has reduced latency/delay, low bandwidth consumption, and energy usage when been compare with cloud storage, therefore, fog storage will help to lessen excessive cost. This paper dwelt more on the system descriptions, the researchers focused on the research design and framework design for the data privacy model, data storage, and real-time analytics. This paper also shows the major system components and their framework specification. And lastly, the overall research system architecture was shown, its structure, and its interrelationships.

Keywords: IoT, fog, cloud, data analysis, data privacy

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Authors: N. R. Badurally Adam, S. R. Monebhurrun, M. Z. Dauhoo, A. Khoodaruth

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Transport energy demand is vital for the economic growth of any country. Globalisation and better standard of living plays an important role in transport energy demand. Recently, transport energy demand in Mauritius has increased significantly, thus leading to an abuse of natural resources and thereby contributing to global warming. Forecasting the transport energy demand is therefore important for controlling and managing the demand. In this paper, we develop a model to predict the transport energy demand. The model developed is based on a system of five stochastic differential equations (SDEs) consisting of five endogenous variables: fuel price, population, gross domestic product (GDP), number of vehicles and transport energy demand and three exogenous parameters: crude birth rate, crude death rate and labour force. An interval of seven years is used to avoid any falsification of result since Mauritius is a developing country. Data available for Mauritius from year 2003 up to 2009 are used to obtain the values of design variables by applying genetic algorithm. The model is verified and validated for 2010 to 2012 by substituting the values of coefficients obtained by GA in the model and using particle swarm optimisation (PSO) to predict the values of the exogenous parameters. This model will help to control the transport energy demand in Mauritius which will in turn foster Mauritius towards a pollution-free country and decrease our dependence on fossil fuels.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, modeling, particle swarm optimization, stochastic differential equations, transport energy demand

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Authors: Xu Jiaqiao

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Text sentiment analysis is an important branch of natural language processing. This technology is widely used in public opinion analysis and web surfing recommendations. At present, the mainstream sentiment analysis methods include three parts: sentiment analysis based on a sentiment dictionary, based on traditional machine learning, and based on deep learning. This paper mainly analyzes and compares the advantages and disadvantages of the SVM method of traditional machine learning and the Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) method of deep learning in the field of Chinese sentiment analysis, using Chinese comments on Sina Microblog as the data set. Firstly, this paper classifies and adds labels to the original comment dataset obtained by the web crawler, and then uses Jieba word segmentation to classify the original dataset and remove stop words. After that, this paper extracts text feature vectors and builds document word vectors to facilitate the training of the model. Finally, SVM and LSTM models are trained respectively. After accuracy calculation, it can be obtained that the accuracy of the LSTM model is 85.80%, while the accuracy of SVM is 91.07%. But at the same time, LSTM operation only needs 2.57 seconds, SVM model needs 6.06 seconds. Therefore, this paper concludes that: compared with the SVM model, the LSTM model is worse in accuracy but faster in processing speed.

Keywords: sentiment analysis, support vector machine, long short-term memory, Chinese microblog comments

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Authors: Aminu Hamza

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This study examines the factors that play vital role in the adoption of mobile payment system among consumers in Nigeria. Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) was used with two additional variables to form the conceptual model. The study was conducted in three Universities in Kano state, Nigeria. Convenience sampling method was used with a total valid 202 respondents which involved the students of Bayero University Kano (BUK), Northwest University, and Kano University of Science and Technology (KUST) Wudil, Kano, Nigeria. Results of the regression analysis revealed that Perceived ease of use (PEOU) and Perceived usefulness (PU) have significant and positive correlation with the behavioral intention to adopt mobile payment system. The findings of this study would be useful to the policy makers Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), mobile network operators and providers of the services.

Keywords: mobile payment system, Nigeria, technology adoption, technology acceptance model

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Authors: Yangsu Kwon, Hyo-Gyoung Kwak

Abstract:

Nonlinear tendon constitutive model for nonlinear analysis of pre-stressed concrete structures are presented. Since the post-cracking behavior of concrete structures, in which bonded reinforcements such as tendons and/or reinforcing steels are embedded, depends on many influencing factors(the tensile strength of concrete, anchorage length of reinforcements, concrete cover, and steel spacing) that are deeply related to the bond characteristics between concrete and reinforcements, consideration of the tension stiffening effect on the basis of the bond-slip mechanism is necessary to evaluate ultimate resisting capacity of structures. In this paper, an improved tendon model, which considering the slip effect between concrete and tendon, and effect of tension stiffening, is suggested. The validity of the proposed models is established by comparing between the analytical results and experimental results in pre-stressed concrete beams.

Keywords: bond-slip, prestressed concrete, tendon, ultimate strength

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Authors: Jamilatuzzahro, Rezzy Eko Caraka

Abstract:

The yield curve is the plot of the yield to maturity of zero-coupon bonds against maturity. In practice, the yield curve is not observed but must be extracted from observed bond prices for a set of (usually) incomplete maturities. There exist many methodologies and theory to analyze of yield curve. We use two methods (the Nelson-Siegel Method, the Svensson Method, and the SVR method) in order to construct and compare our zero-coupon yield curves. The objectives of this research were: (i) to study the adequacy of NSS model and SVR to Indonesian government bonds data, (ii) to choose the best optimization or estimation method for NSS model and SVR. To obtain that objective, this research was done by the following steps: data preparation, cleaning or filtering data, modeling, and model evaluation.

Keywords: support vector regression, Nelson-Siegel-Svensson, yield curve, Indonesian government

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Authors: L. Matthewman, J. Nowlan

Abstract:

Background: Holistic or Integrative Psychology emphasizes the interdependence of physiological, spiritual and psychological dynamics. Studying “wholeness and well-being” from a systems perspective combines innovative psychological science interventions with Eastern orientated healing wisdoms and therapies. The literature surrounding holistic/integrative psychology focuses on multi-stage interventions in attempts to enhance the mind-body experiences of well-being for participants. This study proposes a new single stage model as an intervention for UG/PG students, time-constrained workplace employees and managers/leaders for improved well-being and life enhancement. The main research objective was to investigate participants’ experiences of holistic and mindfulness interventions for impact on emotional well-being. The main research question asked was if single stage holistic interventions could impact on psychological well-being. This is of consequence because many people report that a reason for not taking part in mind-body or wellness programmes is that they believe that they do not have sufficient time to engage in such pursuits. Experimental Approach: The study employed a mixed methods pre-test/post-test research design. Data was analyzed using descriptive statistics and interpretative phenomenological analysis. Purposive sampling methods were employed. An adapted mindfulness measurement questionnaire (MAAS) was administered to 20 volunteer final year UG student participants prior to the single stage intervention and following the intervention. A further post-test longitudinal follow-up took place one week later. Intervention: The single stage model intervention consisted of a half hour session of mindfulness, yoga stretches and head and neck massage in the following sequence: Mindful awareness of the breath, yoga stretches 1, mindfulness of the body, head and neck massage, mindfulness of sounds, yoga stretches 2 and finished with pure awareness mindfulness. Results: The findings on the pre-test indicated key themes concerning: “being largely unaware of feelings”, “overwhelmed with final year exams”, “juggling other priorities” , “not feeling in control”, “stress” and “negative emotional display episodes”. Themes indicated on the post-test included: ‘more aware of self’, ‘in more control’, ‘immediately more alive’ and ‘just happier’ compared to the pre-test. Themes from post-test 2 indicated similar findings to post-test 1 in terms of themes. but on a lesser scale when scored for intensity. Interestingly, the majority of participants reported that they would now seek other similar interventions in the future and would be likely to engage with a multi-stage intervention type on a longer-term basis. Overall, participants reported increased psychological well-being after the single stage intervention. Conclusion: A single stage one-off intervention model can be effective to help towards the wellbeing of final year UG students. There is little indication to suggest that this would not be generalizable to others in different areas of life and business. However this study must be taken with caution due to low participant numbers. Implications: Single stage one-off interventions can be used to enhance peoples’ lives who might not otherwise sign up for a longer multi-stage intervention. In addition, single stage interventions can be utilized to help participants progress onto longer multiple stage interventions. Finally, further research into one stage well-being interventions is encouraged.

Keywords: holistic/integrative psychology, mindfulness, well-being, yoga

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