Search results for: decision experts

Authors: Rosdyana Mangir Irawan Kusuma, Wei-Chun Kao, Ho-Thi Trang, Yu-Yen Ou, Kai-Lung Hua

Abstract:

Stock market prediction is still a challenging problem because there are many factors that affect the stock market price such as company news and performance, industry performance, investor sentiment, social media sentiment, and economic factors. This work explores the predictability in the stock market using deep convolutional network and candlestick charts. The outcome is utilized to design a decision support framework that can be used by traders to provide suggested indications of future stock price direction. We perform this work using various types of neural networks like convolutional neural network, residual network and visual geometry group network. From stock market historical data, we converted it to candlestick charts. Finally, these candlestick charts will be feed as input for training a convolutional neural network model. This convolutional neural network model will help us to analyze the patterns inside the candlestick chart and predict the future movements of the stock market. The effectiveness of our method is evaluated in stock market prediction with promising results; 92.2% and 92.1 % accuracy for Taiwan and Indonesian stock market dataset respectively.

Keywords: candlestick chart, deep learning, neural network, stock market prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 447

Authors: Stanley Yap, Patrick Kee Peng Kong, Chong Wei Ying, Leow Hon Wei

Abstract:

Purpose: This study examines the comprehensive household retirement planning based on the level of financial literacy in Malaysia. Sufficient financial literacy is essential to make financial decision on Malaysian household retirement planning. Design/Methodology/Approach: Numerous measurements consist of present value of total retirement fund needed, future value of the expenses and inflation-adjusted interest rate are used in this paper. Therefore, we are able to identify the retirement gap that needs to be considered immediately. Findings: Our results show, firstly, adequate financial literacy is vital to achieve long term household retirement planning. Secondly, there is no retirement gap where the future value of the existing financial assets is greater than the lump sum needs during retirement phase. Thirdly, financial assets should be prepared in early age to accumulate substantial funding to support household retirement life. Practical Implications: The outcomes benefit to retiree and working adults. It highlights the importance of financial literacy to retirement planning. It is also a milestone for Malaysian to achieve developed country if Malaysian has sufficient retirement funding. Originality/Value: There is currently lack of in-depth research on financial literacy related to household retirement planning. Further, the paper also focusses on financial literacy, as a means to assist those in funding retirement resources, in order to fulfil the retirement gap.

Keywords: financial literacy, retirement planning, retirement resources, retirement gap, Malaysian household

Procedia PDF Downloads 460

Authors: Azhin Hamad Ameen

Abstract:

This research paper explores the concept of secularism in Iraq, analyzing its historical development, contemporary manifestations, and potential future trajectories. Using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, including archival research, interviews with experts and practitioners, and surveys of public opinion, the study examines the complex and often contested relationship between religion, politics, and state power in Iraq. The research finds that secularism has played a significant role in shaping Iraq's political and social landscape over the past century, reflecting both the influence of Western modernity and the challenges of managing religious diversity in a multiethnic, multi-sectarian society. However, the study also reveals that secularism in Iraq is highly contested and fragmented, with competing visions and interpretations among different groups and factions. The research identifies several key factors that have contributed to this fragmentation, including the legacy of colonialism, sectarian conflicts, external interventions, and the rise of Islamist movements. Despite these challenges, the study suggests that secularism continues to hold important potential for promoting democratic governance, protecting human rights, and fostering social cohesion in Iraq. The research concludes by outlining several key policy recommendations for strengthening secularism in Iraq, including promoting interfaith dialogue and tolerance, enhancing public education and civic engagement, and supporting grassroots initiatives for social and political reform. Overall, this research contributes to our understanding of the complex dynamics of secularism in Iraq and highlights the urgent need for innovative and inclusive approaches to promoting democratic governance and social justice in the country.

Keywords: secularism, Iraq, religion, politics, state power, historical development, contemporary manifestations, multiethnic society, multi-sectarian society, western modernity, religious diversity, fragmentation, colonialism, sectarian conflicts, external interventions, Islamist movements, democratic governance, human rights, social cohesion, interfaith dialogue, tolerance, public education, civic engagement, grassroots initiatives, social and political reform

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Wu You, Burra Venkata Durga Kumar

Abstract:

This study examines the promising potential of integrating Blockchain and Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies to scalability in Distributed Systems within the field of supply chain finance. The finance industry is continually confronted with scalability challenges in its Distributed Systems, particularly within the supply chain finance sector, impacting efficiency and security. Blockchain, with its inherent attributes of high scalability and secure distributed ledger system, coupled with AI's strengths in optimizing data processing and decision-making, holds the key to innovating the industry's approach to these issues. This study elucidates the synergistic interplay between Blockchain and AI, detailing how their fusion can drive a significant transformation in the supply chain finance sector's Distributed Systems. It offers specific use-cases within this field to illustrate the practical implications and potential benefits of this technological convergence. The study also discusses future possibilities and current challenges in implementing this groundbreaking approach within the context of supply chain finance. It concludes that the intersection of Blockchain and AI could ignite a new epoch of enhanced efficiency, security, and transparency in the Distributed Systems of supply chain finance within the financial industry.

Keywords: blockchain, artificial intelligence (AI), scaled distributed systems, supply chain finance, efficiency and security

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: Md. Shahriar Sabuz

Abstract:

Different social factors influence individuals to migrate from their native lands. This qualitative study was designed to analyze the main social factors that have a significant role in the movement of people across borders. In this study, two research questions, i.e., ‘Which social factors of a country significantly influence the persons' decision to migrate from their homeland?’ and ’2: do different social factors of a country influence the process of international migration?" were formulated and relevant data were analyzed to get the logical answer to these two questions. Data analysis revealed that people migrate in large numbers due to deplorable and unsafe social conditions in their home countries. Sometimes migration occurs due to a lack of basic facilities in native countries. It is quite significant to know that these social conditions create a sense of deprivation and insecurity in individuals, and they move to other lands to get a sense of achievement and greater security for themselves and their whole families. This study is significant and distinct from previous studies in that it provides comprehensive information about the major social factors responsible for international migrations and their role in influencing an individual's proclivity to migrate. Besides this, it greatly opens new horizons of research and analysis for other researchers working on the agenda of international migration.

Keywords: International migration, social factors, income inequality, social discrimination

Procedia PDF Downloads 72

Authors: Jeannette Anniés, Panagiotis Michalis, Chrysoula Papathanasiou, Selby Knudsen

Abstract:

RiskPACC project aims to bring together researchers, practitioners, and first responders from nine European countries following a co-creation approach aiming to develop customised solutions to meet the needs of end-users. The co-creation workshops target to enhance the communication pathways between local civil protection authorities (CPAs) and citizens, in an effort to close the risk perception-action gap (RPAG). The participants in the workshops include a variety of stakeholders, as well as citizens, fostering the dialogue between the groups and supporting citizen participation in disaster risk management (DRM). The co-creation methodology in place implements co-design elements due to the integration of four ICT tools. Such ICT tools include web-based and mobile application technical solutions in different development stages, ranging from formulation and validation of concepts to pilot demonstrations. In total, seven different case studies are foreseen in RiskPACC. The workflow of the workshops is designed to be adaptive to every of the seven case study countries and their cultures’ particular needs. This work aims to provide an overview of the the preparation and the conduction of the workshops in which researchers and practitioners focused on mapping these different needs from the end users. The latter included first responders but also volunteers and citizens who actively participated in the co-creation workshops. The strategies to improve communication between CPAs and citizens themselves differ in the countries, and the modules of the co-creation methodology are adapted in response to such differences. Moreover, the project partners experienced how the structure of such workshops is perceived differently in the seven case studies. Therefore, the co-creation methodology itself is a design method underlying several iterations, which are eventually shaped by cross-cultural collaboration. For example, some case studies applied other modules according to the participatory group recruited. The participants were technical experts, teachers, citizens, first responders, or volunteers, among others. This work aspires to present the divergent approaches of the seven case studies implementing the co-creation methodology proposed, in response to different perceptions of the modules. An analysis of the adaptations and implications will also be provided to assess where the case studies’ objective of improving disaster resilience has been obtained.

Keywords: citizen participation, co-creation, disaster resilience, risk perception, ICT tools

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Mohammadreza Mohebbi, Masoumeh Sanagou

Abstract:

The ability to predict clinical outcomes is of great importance to physicians and clinicians. A number of different methods have been used in an effort to accurately predict these outcomes. These methods include the development of scoring systems based on multivariate statistical modelling, and models involving the use of classification and regression trees. The process usually consists of two consecutive phases, namely model development and external validation. The model development phase consists of building a multivariate model and evaluating its predictive performance by examining calibration and discrimination, and internal validation. External validation tests the predictive performance of a model by assessing its calibration and discrimination in different but plausibly related patients. A motivate example focuses on prediction modeling using a sample of patients undergone coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) has been used for illustrative purpose and a set of primary considerations for evaluating prediction model studies using specific quality indicators as criteria to help stakeholders evaluate the quality of a prediction model study has been proposed.

Keywords: clinical prediction models, clinical decision rule, prognosis, external validation, model calibration, biostatistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: Ju Peng Poh, Jun Yu Charles Lee, Jonathan Chew Hoe Khoo

Abstract:

The emergence of digital twin technology, a digital replica of physical world, has improved the real-time access to data from sensors about the performance of buildings. This digital transformation has opened up many opportunities to improve the management of the building by using the data collected to help monitor consumption patterns and energy leakages. One example is the integration of predictive models for anomaly detection. In this paper, we use the GAM (Generalised Additive Model) for the anomaly detection of Air Handling Units (AHU) power consumption pattern. There is ample research work on the use of GAM for the prediction of power consumption at the office building and nation-wide level. However, there is limited illustration of its anomaly detection capabilities, prescriptive analytics case study, and its integration with the latest development of digital twin technology. In this paper, we applied the general GAM modelling framework on the historical data of the AHU power consumption and cooling load of the building between Jan 2018 to Aug 2019 from an education campus in Singapore to train prediction models that, in turn, yield predicted values and ranges. The historical data are seamlessly extracted from the digital twin for modelling purposes. We enhanced the utility of the GAM model by using it to power a real-time anomaly detection system based on the forward predicted ranges. The magnitude of deviation from the upper and lower bounds of the uncertainty intervals is used to inform and identify anomalous data points, all based on historical data, without explicit intervention from domain experts. Notwithstanding, the domain expert fits in through an optional feedback loop through which iterative data cleansing is performed. After an anomalously high or low level of power consumption detected, a set of rule-based conditions are evaluated in real-time to help determine the next course of action for the facilities manager. The performance of GAM is then compared with other approaches to evaluate its effectiveness. Lastly, we discuss the successfully deployment of this approach for the detection of anomalous power consumption pattern and illustrated with real-world use cases.

Keywords: anomaly detection, digital twin, generalised additive model, GAM, power consumption, supervised learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Bismina Akbar, Smitha M. V.

Abstract:

Flooding is a global phenomenon that causes widespread devastation, economic damage, and loss of human lives. In the past twenty years, the number of reported flood events has increased significantly. Millions of people around the globe are at risk of flooding from coastal, dam breaks, groundwater, and urban surface water and wastewater sources. Climate change is one of the important causes for them since it affects, directly and indirectly, the river network. Although the contribution of climate change is undeniable, human contributions are there to increase the frequency of floods. There are different types of floods, such as Flash floods, Coastal floods, Urban floods, River (or fluvial) floods, and Ponding (or pluvial flooding). This study focuses on formulating mitigation strategies for urban flood risk reduction through analysis of different best practice case studies, including China, Japan, Indonesia, and Brazil. The mitigation measures suggest that apart from the structural and non-structural measures, environmental considerations like blue-green solutions are beneficial for flood risk reduction. And also, Risk-Informed Master plans are essential nowadays to take risk-based decision processes that enable more sustainability and resilience.

Keywords: hazard, mitigation, risk reduction, urban flood

Procedia PDF Downloads 77

Authors: Chuan-Ming Tung, Tzu-Chiao Yuan

Abstract:

This research aims to construct the supply indicators and weights of shelter space from a perspective of the needs of the elderly by virtue of literature review, a systematical compilation of related regulations, and the use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process method, the questionnaires regarding the indicators filled out by 16 experts and scholars. The researcher then used 3 schools and 2 activity centers in Banqiao District, New Taipei City, as study cases to evaluate the ‘friendliness’ degree/level for the supply of shelters meeting the needs of elderly people. The supply evaluation indicators of friendly shelters meeting the needs of the elderly include "Administrative Operations and Service Needs" and "Residence-related and Living Needs"; under the "Administrative Operations and Service Needs" are "Management Operations and Information Provision", "Shelter Space Preparedness and Logistics Support", "Medical Care and Social Support", and "Shelters and Medical Environment", a total of 17 assessment items in four indicators, while under the "Residence-related and Living Needs" are "Dietary Needs", "Sleep Needs", "Hygiene and Sanitation Needs", "Accessibility and Convenience Needs ", etc., a total of 18 assessment items in four indicators. The results show that "Residence-related and Living Needs" is the most important item in the main levels of the supply indicators of the needs for friendly shelters to elderly people (weigh value 0.5504), followed by "Administrative Operations and Service Needs" (0.4496). The order of importance of the supply indicators of friendly shelters for the needs of elderly people is as follows: "Hygiene and Sanitation Needs" (0.1721), "Dietary Needs" (0.1340), "Medical Care and Social Support" (0.1300), "Sleep Needs" (0.1277), "Accessibility and Convenience Needs" (0.1166), "Basic Environment of Shelters" (0.1145), "Shelter Space Preparedness and Logistics Support" (0.1115) and "Management Operations and Information Provision" (0.0936). In addition, it can be noticed from the results of the case evaluation that the provision of refuges and shelters, mainly from schools and activity centers, is extremely inadequate for the needs of the elderly. In a set of comprehensive comparisons and contrasts, the evaluation indicators of refuges and shelters that need to be improved are "Medical Care and Social Support", "Hygiene and Sanitation Needs", "Sleep Needs", "Dietary Needs", and "Shelter Space Preparedness and Logistics Support".

Keywords: needs of the elderly people, urban shelters, evaluation indicators/indices., taiwan

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Lina Lukusa, Ulrike Rivett

Abstract:

Poor water management can increase the extreme pressure already faced by water scarcity. Unless water management is addressed holistically, water quality and quantity will continue to degrade. A holistic approach to water management named Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) has thus been created to facilitate the effective management of water. Traditionally, water management has employed a linear design approach, while WSUD requires a systematic, cyclical approach. In simple terms, WSUD assumes that everything is connected. Hence, it is critical for different stakeholders involved in WSUD to engage and reach a consensus on a solution. However, many stakeholders in WSUD have conflicting interests. Using the soft system methodology (SSM), developed by Peter Checkland, as a problem-solving method, decision-makers can understand this problematic situation from different world views. The SSM addresses ill and complex challenging situations involving human activities in a complex structured scenario. This paper demonstrates how SSM can be applied to understand the complexity of stakeholder engagement in WSUD. The paper concludes that SSM is an adequate solution to understand a complex problem better and then propose efficient solutions.

Keywords: co-design, ICT platform, soft systems methodology, water sensitive urban design

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Ali R. Alshawawreh, Francisco Liébana-Cabanillas, Francisco J. Blanco-Encomienda

Abstract:

Collaboration between marketing and business intelligence (BI) is crucial in today's ever-evolving business landscape. These two domains play pivotal roles in molding customers' experiential knowledge. Marketing insights offer valuable information regarding customer needs, preferences, and behaviors. Conversely, BI facilitates data-driven decision-making, leading to heightened operational efficiency, product quality, and customer satisfaction. Customer experiential knowledge (CEK) encompasses customers' implicit comprehension of consumption experiences influenced by diverse factors, including social and cultural influences. This study primarily focuses on telecommunications companies in Jordan, scrutinizing how experiential customer knowledge mediates the relationship between marketing intelligence and business intelligence. Drawing on theoretical frameworks such as the resource-based view (RBV) and service-dominant logic (SDL), the research aims to comprehend how organizations utilize their resources, particularly knowledge, to foster Evolution. Employing a quantitative research approach, the study collected and analyzed primary data to explore hypotheses. Structural equation modeling (SEM) facilitated by Smart PLS software evaluated the relationships between the constructs, followed by mediation analysis to assess the indirect associations in the model. The study findings offer insights into the intricate dynamics of organizational Creation, uncovering the interconnected relationships between business intelligence, customer experiential knowledge-based innovation (CEK-DI), marketing intelligence (MI), and product and service innovation (PSI), underscoring the pivotal role of advanced intelligence capabilities in developing innovative practices rooted in a profound understanding of customer experiences. Furthermore, the positive impact of BI on PSI reaffirms the significance of data-driven decision-making in shaping the innovation landscape. The significant impact of CEK-DI on PSI highlights the critical role of customer experiences in driving an organization. Companies that actively integrate customer insights into their opportunity creation processes are more likely to create offerings that match customer expectations, which drives higher levels of product and service sophistication. Additionally, the positive and significant impact of MI on CEK-DI underscores the critical role of market insights in shaping evolutionary strategies. While the relationship between MI and PSI is positive, the slightly weaker significance level indicates a subtle association, suggesting that while MI contributes to the development of ideas, In conclusion, the study emphasizes the fundamental role of intelligence capabilities, especially artificial intelligence, emphasizing the need for organizations to leverage market and customer intelligence to achieve effective and competitive innovation practices. Collaborative efforts between marketing and business intelligence serve as pivotal drivers of development, influencing customer experiential knowledge and shaping organizational strategies and practices. Future research could adopt longitudinal designs and gather data from various sectors to offer broader insights. Additionally, the study focuses on the effects of marketing intelligence, business intelligence, customer experiential knowledge, and innovation, but other unexamined variables may also influence innovation processes. Future studies could investigate additional factors, mediators, or moderators, including the role of emerging technologies like AI and machine learning in driving innovation.

Keywords: marketing intelligence, business intelligence, product, customer experiential knowledge-driven innovation

Procedia PDF Downloads 32

Authors: Diane M. Bender

Abstract:

In architecture and design education, students learn and understand their discipline through lecture courses and within studios. A studio is where the instructor works closely with students to help them understand design by doing design work. The final jury is the culmination of the studio learning experience. It’s value and significance are rarely questioned. Students present their work before their peers, instructors, and invited reviewers, known as jurors. These jurors are recognized experts who add a breadth of feedback to students mostly in the form of a verbal critique of the work. Since the design review or jury has been a common element of studio education for centuries, jurors themselves have been instructed in this format. Therefore, they understand its value from both a student and a juror perspective. To better understand how these reviewers see the value of a studio review, a survey was distributed to reviewers at a multi-disciplinary design school within the United States. Five design disciplines were involved in this case study: architecture, graphic design, industrial design, interior design, and landscape architecture. Respondents (n=108) provided written comments about their perceived value of the studio review system. The average respondent was male (64%), between 40-49 years of age, and has attained a master’s degree. Qualitative analysis with thematic coding revealed several themes. Reviewers view the final jury as important because it provides a variety of perspectives from unbiased external practitioners and prepares students for similar presentation challenges they will experience in professional practice. They also see it as a way to validate the assessment and evaluation of students by faculty. In addition, they see a personal benefit for themselves and their firm – the ability to network with fellow jurors, professors, and students (i.e., future colleagues). Respondents also provided additional feedback about the jury system and studio education in general. Typical responses included a desire for earlier engagement with students; a better explanation from the instructor about the project parameters, rubrics/grading, and guidelines for juror involvement; a way to balance giving encouraging feedback versus overly critical comments; and providing training for jurors prior to reviews. While this study focused on the studio review, the findings are equally applicable to other disciplines. Suggestions will be provided on how to improve the preparation of guests in the learning process and how their interaction can positively influence student engagement.

Keywords: assessment, design, jury, studio

Procedia PDF Downloads 65

Authors: Srushti Bhatt, M. B. Kiran

Abstract:

Two-sided assembly line balancing problem is yet to be addressed simply to compete for the global market for manufacturers. The task assigned in an ordered sequence to get optimum performance of the system is known as assembly line balancing problem mainly classified as single and two sided. It is very challenging in manufacturing industries to balance two-sided assembly line, wherein the set of sequential workstations the task operations are performed in two sides of the line. The conflicting major objective in two-sided assembly line balancing problem is either to maximize /minimize the performance parameters. The present study emphases on combining different evolutionary algorithm; ant colony, Tabu search and petri net method; and compares their results of an algorithm for solving two-sided assembly line balancing problem. The concept of multi objective optimization of performance parameters is now a day adopted to make a decision involving more than one objective function to be simultaneously optimized. The optimum result can be expected among the selected methods using multi-objective optimization. The performance parameters considered in the present study are a number of workstation, slickness and smoothness index. The simulation of the assembly line balancing problem provides optimal results of classical and practical problems.

Keywords: Ant colony, petri net, tabu search, two sided ALBP

Procedia PDF Downloads 278

Authors: Senay Yitmen

Abstract:

This research investigated individual’s support and helping intentions towards Syrian refugees in Turkey. This is examined in relation to perceived threat and negative emotions, and also to the perceptions of whether one’s intimate social network (family and friends) considers Syrians a threat (descriptive network norm) and whether this network morally supports Syrian refugees (injunctive norms). A questionnaire study was conducted among Turkish participants (n= 565) and the results showed that perception of threat was associated with negative emotions which, in turn, were related to less support of Syrian refugees. Additionally, descriptive norms moderated the relationship between perceived threat and negative emotions towards Syrian refugees. Furthermore, injunctive norms moderated the relationship between negative emotions and support to Syrian refugees. Specifically, the findings indicate that perceived threat is associated with less support of Syrian refugees through negative emotions when descriptive norms are weak and injunctive norms are strong. Injunctive norms appear to trigger a dilemma over the decision to conform or not to conform: when one has negative emotions as a result of perceived threat, it becomes more difficult to conform to the moral obligation of injunctive norms which is associated with less support of Syrian refugees. Hence, these findings demonstrate that both descriptive and injunctive norms are important and play different roles in individual’s support of Syrian refugees.

Keywords: descriptive norms, emotions, injunctive norms, the perception of threat

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Ali Cheshmehzangi, Ayotunde Dawodu

Abstract:

In urban planning, Floor Area Ratio (FAR) of the site plays a major role in the multiplicity of performances, from humane living environments to energy performance. When one considers the astounding volume of new housing that is going to be constructed across the globe during the next few decades due to growing urbanisation (e.g. particularly in developing world), it is imperative that we have an empirically grounded grasp of which building configurations are more energy efficient. As a common planning metric, it would be helpful to know exactly how managing FAR connects with energy efficiency. Hence, this study puts together a set of modelling of various FARs for a typical residential compound and address the considerations of energy planning integration in the practice of building configuration and urban planning. Such decision makings at the planning and design stage enable us to provide pathways of optimising urban climate at mesoscale of the built environment, i.e. the neighbourhood or community level. In this study, a comparative study is conducted using Eco-Tect Software, using a case study in the City of Ningbo, China. Findings of the study contribute to identifying scenarios of various FAR use and energy planning at mesoscale. The final results contribute to studies in urban climate, from the perspectives of urban planning, energy planning, and urban modelling.

Keywords: China, energy planning, FAR, floor-area-ratio, mesoscale, urban climate, urban modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 164

Authors: Amirmehdi Dokhanchi, Babak Ziyae

Abstract:

Studying and prioritizing effective factors on productivity of human resources through TOPSIS method is the main aim of the present research study. For this reason, while reviewing concepts existing in productivity, effective factors were studied. Managers, supervisors, staff and personnel of Tabriz Tractor Manufacturing Company are considered subject of this study. Of total individuals, 160 of them were selected through the application of random sampling method as 'subject'. Two questionnaires were used for collecting data in this study. The factors, which had the highest effect on productivity, were recognized through the application of software packages. TOPSIS method was used for prioritizing recognized factors. For this reason, the second questionnaire was put available to statistics sample for studying effect of each of factors towards predetermined indicators. Therefore, decision-making matrix was obtained. The result of prioritizing factors shows that existence of accurate organizational strategy, high level of occupational skill, application of partnership and contribution system, on-the-job-training services, high quality of occupational life, dissemination of appropriate organizational culture, encouraging to creativity and innovation, and environmental factors are prioritized respectively.

Keywords: productivity of human resources, productivity indicators, TOPSIS, prioritizing factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 334

Authors: Ezgi Nevruz, Kasirga Yildirak, Ashis SenGupta

Abstract:

Comparing or ranking risks is the main motivating factor behind the human trait of making choices. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is a preference theory approach that evaluates perception and bias in decision making under risk and uncertainty. We aim to investigate the aggregate claims of different risk classes in terms of their comparability and amenability to ordering when the impact of risk perception is considered. For this aim, we prioritize the aggregate claims taken as actuarial risks by using various stochastic ordering relations. In order to prioritize actuarial risks, we use stochastic relations such as stochastic dominance and stop-loss dominance that are proposed in the frame of partial order theory. We take into account the dependency of the individual claims exposed to similar environmental risks. At first, we modify the zero-utility premium principle in order to obtain a solution for the stop-loss premium under CPT. Then, we propose a stochastic stop-loss dominance of the aggregate claims and find a relation between the stop-loss dominance and the first-order stochastic dominance under the dependence assumption by using properties of the familiar as well as some emerging multivariate claim distributions.

Keywords: cumulative prospect theory, partial order theory, risk perception, stochastic dominance, stop-loss dominance

Procedia PDF Downloads 321

Authors: Leonard Maaya, Michel Meulders, Martina Vandebroek

Abstract:

Discrete Choice Experiments (DCE) are used to investigate how product attributes affect decision-makers’ choices. In DCEs, choice situations consisting of several alternatives are presented from which choice-makers select the preferred alternative. Standard multinomial logit models based on random utility theory can be used to estimate the utilities for the attributes. The overarching principle in these models is that respondents understand and use all the attributes when making choices. However, studies suggest that respondents sometimes ignore some attributes (commonly referred to as Attribute Non-Attendance/ANA). The choice modeling literature presents ANA as a static process, i.e., respondents’ ANA behavior does not change throughout the experiment. However, respondents may ignore attributes due to changing factors like availability of information on attributes, learning/fatigue in experiments, etc. We develop a dynamic mixture latent Markov model to model changes in ANA when information on attributes is provided. The model is illustrated on e-consumers’ webshop choices. The results indicate that the dynamic ANA model describes the behavioral changes better than modeling the impact of information using changes in parameters. Further, we find that providing information on attributes leads to an increase in the attendance probabilities for the investigated attributes.

Keywords: choice models, discrete choice experiments, dynamic models, e-commerce, statistical modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Libena Cernohorska, Barbora Sutorova, Petr Teply

Abstract:

There are pending discussions over an impact of global regulatory efforts on banks. In this paper we present a literature review on the profitability-risk-capital relationship in banking. Research papers dealing with this topic can be divided into two groups: the first group focusing on a capital-risk relationship and the second group analyzing a capital-profitability relationship. The first group investigates whether the imposition of stricter capital requirements reduces risk-taking incentives of banks based on a simultaneous equations model. Their model pioneered the idea that the changes in both capital and risk have endogenous and exogenous components. The results obtained by the authors indicate that changes in the capital level are positively related to the changes in asset risk. The second group of the literature concentrating solely on the relationship between the level of held capital and bank profitability is limited. Nevertheless, there are a lot of studies dealing with the banks’ profitability as such, where bank capital is very often included as an explanatory variable. Based on the literature review of dozens of relevant papers in this study, an empirical research on banks’ profitability and risk adjustment decisions under new banking rules Basel III rules can be easily undertaken.

Keywords: bank, Basel III, capital, decision making, profitability, risk, simultaneous equations model

Procedia PDF Downloads 499

Authors: Adekunle Taiwo Adenike, I. K. Ogundoyin

Abstract:

Lassa fever is a neglected tropical virus that has become a significant public health issue in Nigeria, with the country having the greatest burden in Africa. This paper presents a Geo-Computational Model for Analysis and Prediction of Lassa Fever Dynamics and Outbreaks in Nigeria. The model investigates the dynamics of the virus with respect to environmental factors and human populations. It confirms the role of the rodent host in virus transmission and identifies how climate and human population are affected. The proposed methodology is carried out on a Linux operating system using the OSGeoLive virtual machine for geographical computing, which serves as a base for spatial ecology computing. The model design uses Unified Modeling Language (UML), and the performance evaluation uses machine learning algorithms such as random forest, fuzzy logic, and neural networks. The study aims to contribute to the control of Lassa fever, which is achievable through the combined efforts of public health professionals and geocomputational and machine learning tools. The research findings will potentially be more readily accepted and utilized by decision-makers for the attainment of Lassa fever elimination.

Keywords: geo-computational model, lassa fever dynamics, lassa fever, outbreak prediction, nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: Pui Yong Leo, Normy Maziah Mohd Said

Abstract:

Change of global economy landscape and business environment has led to companies’ decision to go global and enter international markets. As the companies go beyond the comfort zone (i.e. investing in the home country), it is important to ensure a comprehensive risk assessment is carried out. This paper describes a standardized approach for international investment, ensuring identification of risk, risk appetite, risk rating, risk treatment and mitigation plans for respective international investment proposal. The standardized approach is divided into three (3) stages as follows: Stage 1 – Preliminary Risk profiling; with the objective to gauge exposure to countries and high level risk factors as first level assessment. Stage 2 – Risk Parameters; with the objective to define risk appetite for the international investment from the perspective of likelihood and impact. Stage 3 – Detailed Risk Assessments; with the objectives to assess in detail any triggered elements from Stage 1, and project specific risks. The final output will include the mitigation plans for the identified risks for the total investment. Example will be given in this paper to show how comprehensive risk assessment is carried out for an international investment in power energy sector.

Keywords: international investment, mitigation plans, risk appetite, risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 388

Authors: Sithandazile Masuku

Abstract:

Introduction: Public health approaches to offender mental health are driven by international policies and frameworks in response to the disproportionately large representation of people with mental health problems within the offender pathway compared to the general population. Public health service innovations include mental health courts in the US, restorative models in Singapore and, liaison and diversion services in Australia, the UK, and some other European countries. Mental health nurses are at the forefront of offender health service innovations. In the U.K. context, police custody has been identified as an early point within the offender pathway where nurses can improve outcomes by offering assessments and share information with criminal justice partners. This scope of nursing practice has introduced challenges related to skills and support required for nurses working at the interface of health and the criminal justice system. Parallel literature exploring experiences of nurses working in forensic settings suggests the presence of compassion fatigue, burnout and vicarious trauma that may impede risk harm to the nurses in these settings. Published research explores mainly service-level outcomes including monitoring of figures indicative of a reduction in offending behavior. There is minimal research exploring the experiences of liaison and diversion nurses who are situated away from a supportive clinical environment and engaged in complex autonomous decision-making. Aim: This paper will share qualitative findings (in progress) from a PhD study that aims to explore the experiences of liaison and diversion nurses in one service in the U.K. Methodology: This is a qualitative interview study conducted using an Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis to gain an in-depth analysis of lived experiences. Methods: A purposive sampling technique was used to recruit n=8 mental health nurses registered with the UK professional body, Nursing and Midwifery Council, from one UK Liaison and Diversion service. All participants were interviewed online via video call using semi-structured interview topic guide. Data were recorded and transcribed verbatim. Data were analysed using the seven steps of the Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis data analysis method. Emerging Findings Analysis to date has identified pertinent themes: • Difficulties of meaning-making for nurses because of the complexity of their boundary spanning role. • Emotional burden experienced in a highly emotive and fast-changing environment. • Stress and difficulties with role identity impacting on individual nurses’ ability to be resilient. • Challenges to wellbeing related to a sense of isolation when making complex decisions. Conclusion Emerging findings have highlighted the lived experiences of nurses working in liaison and diversion as challenging. The nature of the custody environment has an impact on role identity and decision making. Nurses left feeling isolated and unsupported are less resilient and may go on to experience compassion fatigue. The findings from this study thus far point to a need to connect nurses working in these boundary spanning roles with a supportive infrastructure where the complexity of their role is acknowledged, and they can be connected with a health agenda. In doing this, the nurses would be protected from harm and the likelihood of sustained positive outcomes for service users is optimised.

Keywords: liaison and diversion, nurse experiences, offender health, staff wellbeing

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Thanh Van Hoang, Tien Yin Chou, Yao Min Fang, Yi Min Huang, Xuan Linh Nguyen

Abstract:

Reliable information on the spatial distribution of annual rainfall and temperature is essential in research projects relating to urban and regional planning. This research presents results of a classification of temperature and rainfall in the Red River Delta of northern Vietnam based on measurements from seven meteorological stations (Ha Nam, Hung Yen, Lang, Nam Dinh, Ninh Binh, Phu Lien, Thai Binh) in the river basin over a thirty-years period from 1982-2011. The average accumulated rainfall trends in the delta are analysed and form the basis of research essential to weather and climate forecasting. This study employs interpolation based on the Kriging Method for daily rainfall (min and max) and daily temperature (min and max) in order to improve the understanding of sources of variation and uncertainly in these important meteorological parameters. To the Kriging method, the results will show the different models and the different parameters based on the various precipitation series. The results provide a useful reference to assist decision makers in developing smart agriculture strategies for the Red River Delta in Vietnam.

Keywords: spatial interpolation method, ArcGIS, temperature variability, rainfall variability, Red River Delta, Vietnam

Procedia PDF Downloads 329

Authors: Jennifer Gallup, Joel Bocanegra, Greg Callan, Abigail Vaughn

Abstract:

Students with disabilities (SWD) engaged in a distance summer program delivered over multiple virtual mediums that used gaming principles to teach and practice self-regulated learning (SRL) through the process of exploring possible jobs. Gaming quests were developed to explore jobs and teach transition skills. Students completed specially designed quests that taught and reinforced SRL and problem-solving through individual, group, and teacher-led experiences. SRL skills learned were reinforced through guided job explorations over the context of MinecraftEDU, zoom with experts in the career, collaborations with a team over Marco Polo, and Zoom. The quests were developed and laid out on an accessible web page, with active learning opportunities and feedback conducted within multiple virtual mediums including MinecraftEDU. Gaming mediums actively engage players in role-playing, problem-solving, critical thinking, and collaboration. Gaming has been used as a medium for education since the inception of formal education. Games, and specifically board games, are pre-historic, meaning we had board games before we had written language. Today, games are widely used in education, often as a reinforcer for behavior or for rewards for work completion. Games are not often used as a direct method of instruction and assessment; however, the inclusion of games as an assessment tool and as a form of instruction increases student engagement and participation. Games naturally include collaboration, problem-solving, and communication. Therefore, our summer program was developed using gaming principles and MinecraftEDU. This manuscript describes a virtual learning summer program called Virtual Academy New and Exciting Transitions (VAN) that was redesigned from a face-to-face setting to a completely online setting with a focus on SWD aged 14-21. The focus of VAN was to address transition planning needs such as problem-solving skills, self-regulation, interviewing, job exploration, and communication for transition-aged youth diagnosed with various disabilities (e.g., learning disabilities, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, intellectual disability, down syndrome, autism spectrum disorder).

Keywords: autism, disabilities, transition, summer program, gaming, simulations

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: Ayse Ozturk Samur, Gozde Inal Kiziltepe

Abstract:

No matter what level of education it is, starting a school is an exciting process as it includes new experiences. In this process, child steps into a different environment and institution except from the family institution which he was born into and feels secure. That new environment is different from home; it is a social environment which has its own rules, and involves duties and responsibilities that should be fulfilled and new vital experiences. The children who have a positive attitude towards school and like school are more enthusiastic and eager to participate in classroom activities. Moreover, a close relationship with the teacher enables the child to have positive emotions and ideas about the teacher and school and helps children adapt to school easily. In this study, it is aimed to identify children’s perceptions of academic competence, attitudes towards school and ideas about their teachers. In accordance with the aim a mixed method that includes both qualitative and quantitative data collection methods are used. The study is supported with qualitative data after collecting quantitative data. The study group of the research consists of randomly chosen 250 children who are 60-72 month old and attending a preschool institution in a city center located West Anatolian region of Turkey. Quantitative data was collected using Feelings about School scale. The scale consists of 12 items and 4 dimensions; school, teacher, mathematic, and literacy. Reliability and validity study for the scale used in the study was conducted by the researchers with 318 children who were 60-72 months old. For content validity experts’ ideas were asked, for construct validity confirmatory factor analysis was utilized. Reliability of the scale was examined by calculating internal consistency coefficient (Cronbach alpha). At the end of the analyses it was found that FAS is a valid and reliable instrument to identify 60-72 month old children’ perception of their academic competency, attitude toward school and ideas about their teachers. For the qualitative dimension of the study, semi-structured interviews were done with 30 children aged 60-72 month. At the end of the study, it was identified that children’s’ perceptions of their academic competencies and attitudes towards school was medium-level and their ideas about their teachers were high. Based on the semi structured interviews done with children, it is identified that they have a positive perception of school and teacher. That means quantitatively gathered data is supported by qualitatively collected data.

Keywords: feelings, preschool education, school, teacher, thoughts

Procedia PDF Downloads 224

Authors: Jenny Jin

Abstract:

Background: The therapeutic use of cannabis for cancer symptom control in Australia is gaining momentum, reflecting a broader global acceptance of its medicinal potential. Objective: This overview examines the historical context, current regulations, and clinical applications of cannabis in oncology within Australia. Methods: A historical analysis outlines the ancient and 19th-century medicinal uses of cannabis, followed by its prohibition in the early 20th century and subsequent resurgence in the late 20th century. The current legal framework under the therapeutic gods administration (TGA) is discussed. Results: Research indicates that cannabinoids, particularly THC and CBD, effectively alleviate pain, reduce chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting, stimulate appetite, and enhance overall quality of life for cancer patients. Despite these benefits, challenges such as dosing standardization, stigma, and access barriers persist. Conclusion: Continued clinical research, policy development, and educational initiatives are essential to optimize the use of cannabis in cancer care. A patient-centred approach, emphasizing interdisciplinary collaboration and informed decision-making, is crucial for improving therapeutic outcomes in this evolving field.

Keywords: historical context of cannabis, symptom control in oncology patients, therapeutic benefits, outcome and future

Procedia PDF Downloads 13

Authors: Warda Ajaz

Abstract:

This study uses the ‘Community Capitals Framework’ (CCF) to develop a community resilience index that can serve as a useful tool for measuring resilience of communities in diverse contexts and backgrounds. CCF is an important analytical tool to assess holistic community change. This framework identifies seven major types of community capitals: natural, cultural, human, social, political, financial and built, and claims that the communities that have been successful in supporting healthy sustainable community and economic development have paid attention to all these capitals. The framework, therefore, proposes to study the community development through identification of assets in these major capitals (stock), investment in these capitals (flow), and the interaction between these capitals. Capital based approaches have been extensively used to assess community resilience, especially in the context of natural disasters and extreme events. Therefore, this study identifies key indicators for estimating each of the seven capitals through an extensive literature review and then develops an index to calculate a community resilience score. The CCF-based community resilience index presents an innovative way of operationalizing the concept of community resilience and will contribute toward decision-relevant research regarding adaptation and mitigation of community vulnerabilities to climate change-induced, as well as other adverse events.

Keywords: adverse events, community capitals, community resilience, climate change, economic development, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 267

Authors: Shafaq Rana, Hina Ansar

Abstract:

Projectification is an emerging phenomenon in Western economies. The projects have become the key driver of the economic actions. The impact of projectification is understudy for over a decade. A methodology was developed to measure the degree of projectification at economical level, which was later adapted to measure the degree of projectification in Germany, Norway, and Iceland; and compared the differences in these project societies, considering their industrial structure, organizational size, and the share of project work. Using the same methodology, this study aims to provide empirical evidence of the project work in the context of Pakistan –a developing nation, keeping into consideration the macroeconomic measures, qualitative and quantitative measures of the project i/c GDP, monetary measures, and project success. The research includes a qualitative pre-study to define these macro-measures in the country-specific context and a quantitative study to measure the project work w.r.t hours working in the organizations on projects. The outcome of this study provides the key data on the projectification in a developing economy, which will help industry practitioners and decision-makers to examine the consequences of projectification and strategize, respectively. This study also provides a foundation for further research in individual sectors of the country while exploring different macroeconomic questions, including the effect of projectification on project productivity, income effects, and labor market.

Keywords: developing economy, Pakistan, project work, projectification

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Yee Yan Crystal Kwong

Abstract:

The essence of rape is the absence of consent to sexual intercourse. Yet, the definition of consent is not absolute and allows for subjectivity. In this case, the accuracy of oral interpretation becomes very important as the narratives of events and situation, as well as the register and style of speakers would influence the juror decision making. This paper first adopts a corpus-based approach to investigate how court interpreters in Hong Kong handle expressions that refer to sexual activities. The data of this study will be based on online corpus :From legislation to translation, from translation to interpretation: The narrative of sexual offences. The corpus comprises the transcription of five separate rape trials and all of these trials were heard with the presence of an interpreter. Since there are plenty of sex-related expressions used by witnesses and defendants in the five cases, emphasis will be put on those which have an impact on the definition of rape. With an in-depth analysis of the interpreted utterances, different interpreting approaches will be identified to observe how interpreters retain the intended meanings. Interviews with experienced court interpreters will also be conducted to revisit the validity of the traditional verbatim standard. At the end of this research, various interpreting approaches will be compared and evaluated. A redefinition of interpreters' institutional role, as well as recommendations for interpreting learners will be provided.

Keywords: court interpreting, interpreters, legal translation, slangs

Procedia PDF Downloads 262