Search results for: external relational capital

Authors: Natalia M. Acevedo, Luis M. Jimenez, Erick Lambis

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Imperfections in the capital market are used to argue the relevance of the corporate risk management function. With corporate hedge, the value of the company is increased by reducing the volatility of the expected cash flow and making it possible to face a lower bankruptcy costs and financial difficulties, without sacrificing tax advantages for debt financing. With the propose to avoid exchange rate troubles over cash flows of Colombian exporting firms, this dissertation uses financial options, over exchange rate between Peso and Dollar, for realizing a financial hedge. In this study, a strategy of hedge is designed for an exporting company in Colombia with the objective of preventing fluctuations because, if the exchange rate down, the number of Colombian pesos that obtains the company by exports, is less than agreed. The exchange rate of Colombia is measured by the TRM (Representative Market Rate), representing the number of Colombian pesos for an American dollar. First, the TMR is modelled through the Geometric Brownian Motion, with this, the project price is simulated using Montecarlo simulations and finding the mean of TRM for three, six and twelve months. For financial hedging, currency options were used. The 6-month projection was covered with financial options on European-type currency with a strike price of $ 2,780.47 for each month; this value corresponds to the last value of the historical TRM. In the compensation of the options in each month, the price paid for the premium, calculated with the Black-Scholes method for currency options, was considered. Finally, with the modeling of prices and the Monte Carlo simulation, the effect of the exchange hedging with options on the exporting company was determined, this by means of the unit price estimate to which the dollars in the scenario without coverage were changed and scenario with coverage. After using the scenarios: is determinate that the TRM will have a bull trend and the exporting firm will be affected positively because they will get more pesos for each dollar. The results show that the financial options manage to reduce the exchange risk. The expected value with coverage is approximate to the expected value without coverage, but the 5% percentile with coverage is greater than without coverage. The foregoing indicates that in the worst scenarios the exporting companies will obtain better prices for the sale of the currencies if they cover.

Keywords: currency hedging, futures, geometric Brownian motion, options

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Authors: P. Joshna, Souvik Kundu

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Detection of ultraviolet (UV) radiation is very important as it has exhibited a profound influence on humankind and other existences, including military equipment. In this work, a self-powered UV photodetector was reported based on oxides heterojunctions. The thin films of p-type nickel oxide (NiO) and n-type reduced graphene oxide (rGO) were used for the formation of p-n heterojunction. Low-Cost and low-temperature chemical synthesis was utilized to prepare the oxides, and the spin coating technique was employed to deposit those onto indium doped tin oxide (ITO) coated glass substrates. The top electrode platinum was deposited utilizing physical vapor evaporation technique. NiO offers strong UV absorption with high hole mobility, and rGO prevents the recombination rate by separating electrons out from the photogenerated carriers. Several structural characterizations such as x-ray diffraction, atomic force microscope, scanning electron microscope were used to study the materials crystallinity, microstructures, and surface roughness. On one side, the oxides were found to be polycrystalline in nature, and no secondary phases were present. On the other side, surface roughness was found to be low with no pit holes, which depicts the formation of high-quality oxides thin films. Whereas, x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy was employed to study the chemical compositions and oxidation structures. The electrical characterizations such as current-voltage and current response were also performed on the device to determine the responsivity, detectivity, and external quantum efficiency under dark and UV illumination. This p-n heterojunction device offered faster photoresponse and high on-off ratio under 365 nm UV light illumination of zero bias. The device based on the proposed architecture shows the efficacy of the oxides heterojunction for efficient UV photodetection under zero bias, which opens up a new path towards the development of self-powered photodetector for environment and health monitoring sector.

Keywords: chemical synthesis, oxides, photodetectors, spin coating

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Authors: Vivianne Aggestam

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Purpose: Organic dairy products have steadily increased with consumer popularity in recent years in Sweden, permitting more transport activities. The main aim of this study was to compare the transport costs and the environmental emissions made by the organic and conventional dairy production in Sweden. The objective was to evaluate differences and environmental impacts of transport between the two different production systems, allowing a more transparent understanding of the real impact of transport within the supply chain. Methods: A partial attributional Life Cycle Assessment has been conducted based on a comprehensive survey of Swedish farmers, dairies and consumers regarding their transport needs and costs. Interviews addressed the farmers and dairies. Consumers were targeted through an online survey. Results: Higher transport inputs from conventional dairy transportation are mainly via feed and soil management on farm level. The regional organic milk brand illustrate less initial transport burdens on farm level, however, after leaving the farm, it had equal or higher transportation requirements. This was mainly due to the location of the dairy farm and shorter product expiry dates, which requires more frequent retail deliveries. Organic consumers tend to use public transport more than private vehicles. Consumers using private vehicles for shopping trips primarily bought conventional products for which price was the main deciding factor. Conclusions: Organic dairy products that emphasise its regional attributes do not ensure less transportation and may therefore not be a more “climate smart” option for the consumer. This suggests that the idea of localism needs to be analysed from a more systemic perspective. Fuel and regional feed efficiency can be further implemented, mainly via fuel type and the types of vehicles used for transport.

Keywords: supply chains, distribution, transportation, organic food productions, conventional food production, agricultural fossil fuel use

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Authors: Peeyush Verma, Anil Kumar, Anju Rawlley, Chanchal Mehra

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India's school-going population is largely served by an educational system that is, in most rural parts, stuck with methods that emphasize rote learning, endless examinations, and monotonous classroom activities. Rural government schools are generally seen as having poor infrastructure, poor support system and low motivation for teaching as well as learning. It was experienced during the survey of this project that there is lesser motivation of rural boys and girls to attend their schools and still less likely chances to study science, tabooed as “difficult”. An experiment was conducted with the help of Rural Knowledge Network Project through Department of Science and Technology, Govt of India in five remote villages of Sehore District in Madhya Pradesh (India) during 2012-2015. These schools are located about 50-70 Km away from Bhopal, the capital of Madhya Pradesh and can distinctively qualify as average rural schools. Three tier methodology was adapted to unfold the experiment. In first tier randomly selected boys and girls from these schools were taken to a daylong visit to the Regional Science Centre located in Bhopal. In second tier, randomly selected half of those who visited earlier were again taken to the Science Centre to make models of Science. And in third tier, all the boys and girls studying science were exposed to video lectures and study material through web. The results have shown an interesting face towards learning science among youths in rural schools through peer learning or incremental learning. The students who had little or no interest in learning science became good learners and queries started pouring in from the neighbourhood village as well as a few parents requested to take their wards in the project to learn science. The paper presented is a case study of the experiment conducted in five rural schools of Sehore District. It reflects upon the methodology of developing awareness and interest among students and finally engaging them in popularising science through peer-to-peer learning using incremental learning elements. The students, who had a poor perception about science initially, had changed their attitude towards learning science during the project period. The results of this case, however, cannot be generalised unless replicated in the same setting elsewhere.

Keywords: popularisation of science, science temper, incremental learning, peer-to-peer learning

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Authors: Chih-Wen Fan

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Backgrounds/ Research goals : School improvement requires change leadership, which often means discomfort. Principals are the key people that determine the effectiveness of schools. In an era of organization’s pursuit of speed and effectiveness, school administration has to be accountable and innovative. Effective principals work to improve achievement by focusing on the administrative and teaching quality of improvement. However, there is a lack of literature addressing the relevant case studies on school change leadership. This article explores how principals can use change leadership to drive school change. It analyze the driving factors of principal changes in the case school, the beliefs of change leadership, specific methods, and what impact they have. Methods: This study applies the case study research method to the selected primary school located in an urban area for case study, which has achieved excellent performance after reform and innovation. The researchers selected an older primary school located in an urban area that was transformed into a high-performance primary school after changes were enacted by the principal. The selected case was recommended by three supervisors of the Education Department. The case school underwent leadership change by the new principal during his term, and won an award from the Ministry of Education. Total of 8 teachers are interviewed. The data encoding includes interviews and documents. Expected results/ conclusions: The conclusions of the study are, as follows: (1) The influence for Principal Lin's change leadership is from internal and external environmental development and change pressures. (2) The principal's belief in change leadership is to recognize the sense of crisis, and to create a climate of change and demand for change. (3) The principal's specific actions are intended to identify key members, resolve resistance, use innovative thinking, and promote organizational learning. (4) Principal Lin's change leadership can enhance the professional functions of all employees through appropriate authorization. (5) The effectiveness of change leadership lies in teachers' participation in decision-making; the school's reputation has been enhanced through featured courses.

Keywords: change leadership, empowerment, crisis awareness, case study

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Authors: Naveen Porika, Snigdho Majumdar, Niraj Sethi

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Water, food and energy securities are emerging as increasingly important and vital issues for India and the world. Hyderabad urban agglomeration (HUA), the capital city of Andhra Pradesh State in India, is the sixth largest city has a population of about 8.2 million. The Musi River, which is a tributary of Krishna river flows from west to east right through the heart of Hyderabad, about 80% of the water used by people is released back as sewage, which flows back into Musi every day with detrimental effects on the environment and people downstream of the city. The average daily sewage generated in Hyderabad city is 950 MLD, however, treatment capacity exists only for 541 Million Liters per Day (MLD) but only 407 MLD of sewage is treated. As a result, 543 MLD of sewage daily flows into Musi river. Hyderabad’s current estimated water demand stands at 320 Million Gallons per Day (MGD). However, its installed capacity is merely 270 MGD; by 2020 estimated demand will grow to 400 MGD. There is huge gap between current supply and demand, and this is likely to widen by 2021. Developing new fresh water sources is a challenge for Hyderabad, as the fresh water sources are few and far from the City (about 150-200 km) and requires excessive pumping. The constraints presented above make the conventional alternatives for supply augmentation unsustainable and unattractive .One such dependable and captive source of easily available water is the treated sewage. With proper treatment, water of desired quality can be recovered from the waste water (sewage) for recycle and reuse. Hyderabad Amberpet sewage treatment of capacity 339 MLD is Asia’s largest sewage treatment plant. Tertiary sewage treatment Standard basic engineering modules of 30 MLD,60 MLD, 120MLD & 180 MLD for sewage treatment plants has been developed which are utilized for developing Sewage Reclamation & Reuse model in Asia’s largest sewage treatment plant. This paper will focus on Hyderabad Water Supply & Demand, Sewage Generation & Treatment, Technical aspects of Tertiary Sewage Treatment and Utilization of developed standard modules for reclamation & reuse of treated sewage to overcome the deficit of 130 MGD as projected by 2021.

Keywords: water reclamation, reuse, Andhra Pradesh, hyderabad, musi river, sewage, demand and supply, recycle, Amberpet, 339 MLD, engineering modules, tertiary treatment

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Authors: Miguel Nino

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When considering the challenges of a changing and demanding globalizing world, it is important to reflect on how university students will be prepared for the realities of internationalization, marketization and intercultural conversation. The present study is an interdisciplinary program designed to respond to the needs of the global community. The proposal bridges the humanities and science through three different fields: Languages, graphic design and computer science, specifically, fundamentals of programming such as python, java script and software animation. Therefore, the goal of the four year program is twofold: First, enable students for intercultural communication between English and other languages such as Spanish, Mandarin, French or German. Second, students will acquire knowledge in practical software and relevant employable skills to collaborate in assisted computer projects that most probable will require essential programing background in interpreted or compiled languages. In order to become inclusive and constructivist, the cognitive linguistics approach is suggested for the three different fields, particularly for languages that rely on the traditional method of repetition. This methodology will help students develop their creativity and encourage them to become independent problem solving individuals, as languages enhance their common ground of interaction for culture and technology. Participants in this course of study will be evaluated in their second language acquisition at the Intermediate-High level. For graphic design and computer science students will apply their creative digital skills, as well as their critical thinking skills learned from the cognitive linguistics approach, to collaborate on a group project design to find solutions for media web design problems or marketing experimentation for a company or the community. It is understood that it will be necessary to apply programming knowledge and skills to deliver the final product. In conclusion, the program equips students with linguistics knowledge and skills to be competent in intercultural communication, where English, the lingua franca, remains the medium for marketing and product delivery. In addition to their employability, students can expand their knowledge and skills in digital humanities, computational linguistics, or increase their portfolio in advertising and marketing. These students will be the global human capital for the competitive globalizing community.

Keywords: curriculum, international, languages, technology

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Authors: Serkan Sayin, Songul F. Varol

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High attention on the organic light-emitting diodes has been paid since their efficient properties in the flat panel displays, and solid-state lighting was realized. Because of their high efficient electroluminescence, brightness and providing eminent in the emission range, organic light emitting diodes have been preferred a material compared with the other materials consisting of the liquid crystal. Calixarenes obtained from the reaction of p-tert-butyl phenol and formaldehyde in a suitable base have been potentially used in various research area such as catalysis, enzyme immobilization, and applications, ion carrier, sensors, nanoscience, etc. In addition, their tremendous frameworks, as well as their easily functionalization, make them an effective candidate in the applied chemistry. Herein, a calix[4]arene derivative has been synthesized, and its structure has been fully characterized using Fourier Transform Infrared Spectrophotometer (FTIR), proton nuclear magnetic resonance (¹H-NMR), carbon-13 nuclear magnetic resonance (¹³C-NMR), liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS), and elemental analysis techniques. The calixarene derivative has been employed as an emitting layer in the fabrication of the organic light-emitting diodes. The optical and electrochemical features of calixarane-contained organic light-emitting diodes (Clx-OLED) have been also performed. The results showed that Clx-OLED exhibited blue emission and high external quantum efficacy. As a conclusion obtained results attributed that the synthesized calixarane derivative is a promising chromophore with efficient fluorescent quantum yield that provides it an attractive candidate for fabricating effective materials for fluorescent probes and labeling studies. This study was financially supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK Grant no. 117Z402).

Keywords: calixarene, OLED, supramolecular chemistry, synthesis

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Authors: Victoria G. Mountford-Brown

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The concept of the Entrepreneurial University and emphasis on higher education institutions as both hives of innovation and as producers of future innovators accord special significance to the role of academic researchers in future economic and social prosperity. Researcher development in the UK has embedded an emphasis or ‘enterprise lens’ on developing the capabilities of researchers to support a stable economy whilst providing solutions to societal challenges. However, the notion of the ‘entrepreneurial university’ and what that represents to many academics is met with tension and (dis)engagement in the premises of the ‘knowledge economy’ or ‘academic capitalism.’ Set in a landscape of UK higher education wherein the increasing emphasis on research impact, coupled with increasing competition for scarce funding, has created a ‘climate of performativity’. This research seeks to better understand the ways in which academic identities are (re)constructed in the everyday experiences of doctoral (PGR) and early career researchers (ECRs) as they navigate what is referred to by some as the ‘academic hunger games’. These daily pressures and high expectations of success are part of the identity work PGRs/ECRs undergo. This is often fraught with tension and struggles to adapt to the research environment suggesting a reason for imposter phenomenon to be rife in academia – particularly (but not exclusively) in the early stages of development. This pilot study involves qualitative semi-structured exploratory interviews with a mixed gendered sample of participants from a variety of subject disciplines who have taken part in an intensive 3-day innovation and enterprise program for PGR and ECRs premised on developing personal and research impact. The research seeks to better understand the processes of identity formation of becoming academic and offers a commentary on the notions of ‘imposter phenomenon’ and the exchange and development of resources or capital needed to ‘play the game’ in academia in the context of the ‘entrepreneurial university’. It explores ongoing (re)constructions of what it means to be an academic and the different ways in which social identities may embody and challenge the development of entrepreneurial academic identities. As such, it aims to contribute to our understanding of the innovation ecosystem of academia and the prosperity of academic researchers.

Keywords: entreprenruial development, higher education, identities, researcher development

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Authors: Thomas Nally, Jane Ireland, Roxanne Khan, Philip Birch

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Intimate Partner Violence (IPV), a significant societal problem, affects individuals worldwide. However, the strategies victims use to keep safe are under-researched. IPV is significantly under-reported, and services often are not able to be accessed by all victims. Thus they are likely to use their own strategies to manage their victimization before being able to seek support. Two studies were completed to understand these strategies. A systematic review of the literature and study completed with professionals who work with victims was undertaken to understand this area. In study one, a systematic review of the literature (n=61 papers), were analyzed using Thematic Analysis. The results indicated that victims use a large array of behaviors to increase their sense of safety and coping with emotions but also experience significant barriers to help-seeking. In study 2, sixty-nine professionals completed a measure exploring the likelihood and effectiveness of various victim strategies regarding increasing their sense of safety. Strategies included in the measure were obtained from those identified in study 1. Findings indicated that professionals perceived victims of IPV to be more likely to employ safety strategies and coping behaviors that may be ineffective but not help-seeking behaviors. Further, the responses were analyzed using Cluster Analysis. Safety strategies resulted in five clusters; perpetrator-directed strategies, prevention strategies, cognitive reappraisal, safety planning and avoidance strategies. Help-Seeking resulted in six clusters; information or practical support, abuse-related support, emotional support, secondary support and informal support. Finally, coping resulted in four clusters; emotional coping, self-directed coping, thought recording/change and cognitive coping. Both studies indicate that victims may use a variety of strategies to manage their safety besides seeking help. Professionals working with victims, using a strength-based approach, should understand what is used and is effective for victims who are unable to leave the relationships or access external support.

Keywords: intimate partner violence, help-seeking, professional support, victims, victim coping, victim safety

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Authors: M. Ali Mandegari, S. Farzad, J. F. Görgens

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Sugar is one of the main agricultural industries in South Africa and approximately livelihoods of one million South Africans are indirectly dependent on sugar industry which is economically struggling with some problems and should re-invent in order to ensure a long-term sustainability. Second generation bio-refinery is defined as a process to use waste fibrous for the production of bio-fuel, chemicals animal food, and electricity. Bio-ethanol is by far the most widely used bio-fuel for transportation worldwide and many challenges in front of bio-ethanol production were solved. Bio-refinery annexed to the existing sugar mill for production of bio-ethanol and electricity is proposed to sugar industry and is addressed in this study. Since flow-sheet development is the key element of the bio-ethanol process, in this work, a bio-refinery (bio-ethanol and electricity production) annexed to a typical South African sugar mill considering 65ton/h dry sugarcane bagasse and tops/trash as feedstock was simulated. Aspen PlusTM V8.6 was applied as simulator and realistic simulation development approach was followed to reflect the practical behavior of the plant. Latest results of other researches considering pretreatment, hydrolysis, fermentation, enzyme production, bio-ethanol production and other supplementary units such as evaporation, water treatment, boiler, and steam/electricity generation units were adopted to establish a comprehensive bio-refinery simulation. Steam explosion with SO2 was selected for pretreatment due to minimum inhibitor production and simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) configuration was adopted for enzymatic hydrolysis and fermentation of cellulose and hydrolyze. Bio-ethanol purification was simulated by two distillation columns with side stream and fuel grade bio-ethanol (99.5%) was achieved using molecular sieve in order to minimize the capital and operating costs. Also boiler and steam/power generation were completed using industrial design data. Results indicates 256.6 kg bio ethanol per ton of feedstock and 31 MW surplus power were attained from bio-refinery while the process consumes 3.5, 3.38, and 0.164 (GJ/ton per ton of feedstock) hot utility, cold utility and electricity respectively. Developed simulation is a threshold of variety analyses and developments for further studies.

Keywords: bio-refinery, bagasse, tops, trash, bio-ethanol, electricity

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Authors: Diogo Pereira, Maria Moura, Joana Campos, João Nunes

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As the Ukraine war highlights the European Economic Area’s vulnerability and external dependence on feed and food, agriculture gains significant importance. Transformative change is necessary to reach a sustainable and resilient agricultural sector. Agriculture is an important drive for bioeconomy and the equilibrium and survival of society and rural fires resilience. The pressure of (1) water stress, (2) nutrient cycle, and (3) social demographic evolution towards 70% of the population in Urban systems and the aging of the rural population, combined with climate change, exacerbates the problem and paradigm of rural and wildfires, especially in Portugal. The Portuguese territory is characterized by (1) 28% of marginal land, (2) the soil quality of 70% of the territory not being appropriate for agricultural activity, (3) a micro smallholding, with less than 1 ha per proprietor, with mainly familiar and traditional agriculture in the North and Centre regions, and (4) having the most vulnerable areas for rural fires in these same regions. The most important difference between the South, North and Centre of Portugal, referring to rural and wildfires, is the agricultural activity, which has a higher level in the South. In Portugal, rural and wildfires represent an average annual economic loss of around 800 to 1000 million euros. The WinBio model is an agrienvironmental metabolism design, with the capacity to create a new agri-food metabolism through Agricultural Organized Areas, a privatepublic partnership. This partnership seeks to grow agricultural activity in regions with (1) abandoned territory, (2) micro smallholding, (3) water and nutrient management necessities, and (4) low agri-food literacy. It also aims to support planning and monitoring of resource use efficiency and sustainability of territories, using agriculture as a barrier for rural and wildfires in order to protect rural population.

Keywords: agricultural organized areas, residues, climate change, drought, nutrients, rural and wild fires

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Authors: Alvaro L. Ronco

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Background and purpose: Although our country is a developing one, it has a typical Western meat-rich dietary style. Based on estimates of heme and nonheme iron contents in representative foods, we carried out the present epidemiologic study, with the aim of accurately analyzing dietary iron and its role on CRC risk. Subjects/methods: Patients (611 CRC incident cases and 2394 controls, all belonging to public hospitals of our capital city) were interviewed through a questionnaire including socio-demographic, reproductive and lifestyle variables, and a food frequency questionnaire of 64 items, which asked about food intake 5 years before the interview. The sample included 1937 men and 1068 women. Controls were matched by sex and age (± 5 years) to cases. Food-derived nutrients were calculated from available databases. Total dietary iron was calculated and classified by heme or nonheme source, following data of specific Dutch and Canadian studies, and additionally adjusted by energy. Odds Ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated through unconditional logistic regression, adjusting for relevant potential confounders (education, body mass index, family history of cancer, energy, infusions, and others). A heme/nonheme (H/NH) ratio was created and the interest variables were categorized into tertiles, for analysis purposes. Results: The following risk estimations correspond to the highest tertiles. Total iron intake showed no association with CRC risk neither among men (OR=0.83, ptrend =.18) nor among women (OR=1.48, ptrend =.09). Heme iron was positively associated among men (OR=1.88, ptrend < .001) and for the overall sample (OR=1.44, ptrend =.002), however, it was not associated among women (OR=0.91, ptrend =.83). Nonheme iron showed an inverse association among men (OR=0.53, ptrend < .001) and the overall sample (OR=0.78, ptrend =.04), but was not associated among women (OR=1.46, ptrend =.14). Regarding H/NH ratio, risks increased only among men (OR=2.12, ptrend < .001) but lacked of association among women (OR=0.81, ptrend =.29). Conclusions. We have observed different types of associations between CRC risk and high dietary heme, nonheme and H/NH iron ratio. Therefore, the source of the available iron might be of importance as a link to colorectal carcinogenesis, perhaps pointing to reconsider the animal/plant proportions of this vital mineral within diet. Nevertheless, the different associations observed for each sex, demand further studies in order to clarify these points.

Keywords: chelation, colorectal cancer, heme, iron, nonheme

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Authors: Anuja Singh, Avik K. Pati, Ashok K. Mishra

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Organic fluorophores with π-conjugated scaffolds are important because of their interesting optoelectronic properties. In recent years, our lab has been engaged in understanding the photophysics of small diacetylene bridged fluorophores and found the diynes as a promising class of π-conjugated fluorophores. Building on this understanding, recently we have focused on the photophysics of a less explored class of cross-conjugated Y-shaped enediynes (one double and two triple bonds). Here we present the photophysical properties of such enediynes which show interesting photophysical properties that include dual emissions from locally excited (LE) and intramolecular charge transfer (ICT) states and ring size dependent aggregate fluorescence in non-aqueous media. The dyes also show prominent aggregate fluorescence in mixed-aqueous solvents and solid powder form. We further show that the solid state fluorescence can be reversibly switched multiple of cycles by external stimuli, highlighting their potential applications in solid states. The enediynes with push-pull electronic substituents/moieties exhibit high contrast fluorescence color switching upon continuous photon illumination. The intriguing photophysical outcomes of the enediynyl fluorophores are judiciously exploited to generate single-component white light emission in binary solvent mixtures and sense polar aprotic vapor in polymer film matrices. The photophysical behavior of the dyes is further successfully utilized to monitor the microenvironment changes of biologically relevant anisotropic media such as bile salts. In summary, the newly introduced cross-conjugated enediynes enrich the toolbox of organic fluorophores and vouch to display versatile applications.

Keywords: aggregation in solution and solid state, enediynes, physical photochemistry and photophysics, vapor sensing and white light emission

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Authors: T. Jayanthi, K. Velusamy, H. Seetha, S. A. V. Satya Murty

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Verification and Validation of Simulated Process Model is the most important phase of the simulator life cycle. Evaluation of simulated process models based on Verification and Validation techniques checks the closeness of each component model (in a simulated network) with the real system/process with respect to dynamic behaviour under steady state and transient conditions. The process of Verification and validation helps in qualifying the process simulator for the intended purpose whether it is for providing comprehensive training or design verification. In general, model verification is carried out by comparison of simulated component characteristics with the original requirement to ensure that each step in the model development process completely incorporates all the design requirements. Validation testing is performed by comparing the simulated process parameters to the actual plant process parameters either in standalone mode or integrated mode. A Full Scope Replica Operator Training Simulator for PFBR - Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor has been developed at IGCAR, Kalpakkam, INDIA named KALBR-SIM (Kalpakkam Breeder Reactor Simulator) wherein the main participants are engineers/experts belonging to Modeling Team, Process Design and Instrumentation and Control design team. This paper discusses the Verification and Validation process in general, the evaluation procedure adopted for PFBR operator training Simulator, the methodology followed for verifying the models, the reference documents and standards used etc. It details out the importance of internal validation by design experts, subsequent validation by external agency consisting of experts from various fields, model improvement by tuning based on expert’s comments, final qualification of the simulator for the intended purpose and the difficulties faced while co-coordinating various activities.

Keywords: Verification and Validation (V&V), Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR), Kalpakkam Breeder Reactor Simulator (KALBR-SIM), steady state, transient state

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Authors: Beatrice Fenu, Francesco Niosi, Giovanni Bracco, Giuliana Mattiazzo

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In recent years, Europe has seen a great development of renewable energy, in a perspective of reducing polluting emissions and transitioning to cleaner forms of energy, as established by the European Green New Deal. Wind energy has come to cover almost 15% of European electricity needs andis constantly growing. In particular, far-offshore wind turbines are attractive from the point of view of exploiting high-speed winds and high wind availability. Considering offshore wind turbine siting that combines the resources analysis, the bathymetry, environmental regulations, and maritime traffic and considering the waves influence in the stability of the platform, the hydrodynamic characteristics of the platform become fundamental for the evaluation of the performances of the turbine, especially for the pitch motion. Many platform's geometries have been studied and used in the last few years. Their concept is based upon different considerations as hydrostatic stability, material, cost and mooring system. A new method to reach a high-performances substructure for different kinds of wind turbines is proposed. The system that considers substructure, mooring, and wind turbine is implemented in Orcaflex, and the simulations are performed considering several sea states and wind speeds. An external dynamic library is implemented for the turbine control system. The study shows the comparison among different substructures and the new concepts developed. In order to validate the model, CFD simulations will be performed by mean of STAR CCM+, and a comparison between rigid and elastic body for what concerns blades and tower will be carried out. A global model will be built to predict the productivity of the floating turbine according to siting, resources, substructure, and mooring. The Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of the system is estimated, giving a complete overview about the advantages of floating offshore wind turbine plants. Different case studies will be presented.

Keywords: aero-hydrodynamic model, computational fluid dynamics, floating offshore wind, siting, verification, and validation

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Authors: Ni Tang, Jinping Zhang

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An effective and sustainable volunteer team is needed to create a more available blood supply system. In order to promote the sustainable development of blood donation in Zhejiang Province, China, a “three-exemption” policy was proposed in 2014: blood donors who received the National Award for unpaid blood donation may government-invested and funded parks, scenic spots and other places for free, visit non-profit medical institutions for free outpatient fees, and be exempted from urban public transportation fees. As the policy has been in place for seven years, this study evaluated the effectiveness of the policy by comparing the increasing rate of blood donation in Hangzhou (capital city of Zhejiang) before and after the policy using the intermittent time series analysis. The blood donation in Anhui, a Province near Zhejiang, was also compared as a negative control. Blood donation data from 2012 to 2018 were obtained from the donation center's official websites. The increasing rate of blood donation volume since 2012 in Hangzhou is 34.37 units/month, and after 2014, the increasing rate additionally increases 71.69 (p=0.1442), which indicating a statistically non-significant change after the policy. While as a negative control, in Anhui, the increasing rate of blood donation volume since 2012 is -163.3 unit/month, and the increasing rate additionally increases 167.2 (p=5.63e-07) after 2014. The result shows that the three-exemption policy had a certain level of impact on encouraging volunteers to donate blood, but the effect was not substantial. One possible reason for the ineffectiveness of the policy might be a lack of public awareness of the policy. On the other hand, this policy mainly waived unnecessary life expenses, such as fares and scenic entrance fees, and requires a certain number of blood donations, registration procedures, and blood donation certificates. Perhaps, reducing life-related expenses such as oil, water and electricity, could better attract people to participate in blood donation. This current study on the three-exemption policy provides a new direction for promoting people's blood donation. Incentive policies may require greater publicity and incentives. In order to better ensure the operation of the blood donation system, other policies, especially incentive policies, should be further explored.

Keywords: blood donation, policy, Zhejiang, unpaid blood donation, three-exemption policy

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Authors: Lim Pey Huan

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Yi-Kuan-Tao has been developing in Malaysia for nearly 60 years. It was initially introduced from mainland China and later from Taiwan starting from the 1970s. Yi-Kuan-Tao was considered a 'new religion' for the local Chinese community in Malaysia in its early stages, as Chinese immigrants primarily practiced Taoism, Buddhism, Christianity, or Catholicism upon settling in the region. The overseas propagation and development of Yi-Kuan-Tao today primarily occur through Taiwanese temples, which began spreading abroad as early as 1949. Particularly since the 1970s, with the rapid economic growth of Taiwan, various branches of Taiwanese Yi-Kuan-Tao have gained economic strength to propagate abroad, further expanding the influence of Yi-Kuan-Tao overseas. Southeast Asia is the region out from Taiwan where the propagation and development of Yi-Kuan-Tao are fastest and most concentrated. With approximately over 6 million Chinese inhabitants, Malaysia's pursuit of traditional Chinese culture has led to a flourishing interest in Yi-Kuan-Tao, particularly its advocacy of the unity of Confucianism, Buddhism, and Taoism, with an emphasis on promoting Confucian thought. Moreover, Taiwan's rapid economic development since the 1970s has enabled Yi-Kuan-Tao to allocate significant human and financial resources for external propagation efforts. Additionally, Malaysia's government has adopted a relatively tolerant policy towards religion since that time, further fostering the flourishing development of Yi-Kuan-Tao in Malaysia. Furthermore, this thesis aims to strengthen the lineage and continuity of the Yi-Kuan-Tao tradition, particularly the branch of Fa Yi Chong De, through the perspective of Heavenly Mandate (天命). By examining the different origins and ethnic backgrounds, it investigates how the Malaysian Chinese community has experienced different changes through the cultural baptism of religion, thus delving into the religious influence of Yi-Kuan-Tao. Given that the Fa Yi Chong De Academy in Taiwan is currently in an active development and construction phase, academic works related to Yi-Kuan-Tao will lay a more solid academic foundation for the future establishment of the academy.

Keywords: initial exploration, cultural shifts, Yi-Kuan-Tao, Malaysian Chinese community

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Authors: Ankita Tiwari, Jyoti Saini, Subhasis Ghosh

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For many years, researchers have been fascinated by the subject of how properties evolve as dimensionality is lowered. Early on, it was shown that the presence of a significant magnetic anisotropy might compensate for the lack of long-range (LR) magnetic order in a low-dimensional system (d < 3) with continuous symmetry, as proposed by Hohenberg-Mermin and Wagner (HMW). Strong magnetic anisotropy allows an LR magnetic order to stabilize in two dimensions (2D) even in the presence of stronger thermal fluctuations which is responsible for the absence of Heisenberg ferromagnetism in 2D. Van der Waals (vdW) ferromagnets, including CrI₃, CrTe₂, Cr₂X₂Te₆ (X = Si and Ge) and Fe₃GeTe₂, offer a nearly ideal platform for studying ferromagnetism in 2D. Fe₃GeTe₂ is the subject of extensive investigation due to its tunable magnetic properties, high Curie temperature (Tc ~ 220K), and perpendicular magnetic anisotropy. Many applications in the field of spintronics device development have been quite active due to these appealing features of Fe₃GeTe₂. Although it is known that LR-driven ferromagnetism is necessary to get around the HMW theorem in 2D experimental realization, Heisenberg 2D ferromagnetism remains elusive in condensed matter systems. Here, we show that Fe₃GeTe₂ hosts both localized and delocalized spins, resulting in itinerant and local-moment ferromagnetism. The presence of LR itinerant interaction facilitates to stabilize Heisenberg ferromagnet in 2D. With the help of Rhodes-Wohlfarth (RW) and generalized RW-based analysis, Fe₃GeTe₂ has been shown to be a 2D ferromagnet with itinerant magnetism that can be modulated by an external magnetic field. Hence, the presence of both local moment and itinerant magnetism has made this system interesting in terms of research in low dimensions. We have also rigorously performed critical analysis using an improvised method. We show that the variable critical exponents are typical signatures of 2D ferromagnetism in Fe₃GeTe₂. The spontaneous magnetization exponent β changes the universality class from mean-field to 2D Heisenberg with field. We have also confirmed the range of interaction via the renormalization group (RG) theory. According to RG theory, Fe₃GeTe₂ is a 2D ferromagnet with LR interactions.

Keywords: Van der Waal ferromagnet, 2D ferromagnetism, phase transition, itinerant ferromagnetism, long range order

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Authors: Szymon Kuczynski, Krystian Liszka, Mariusz Laciak, Andrii Oliinyk, Adam Szurlej

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Compressed natural gas (CNG) represents an excellent compromise between the availability of a technology that is proven and relatively easy to use in many areas of the automotive industry and incurred costs. This fuel causes a lower corrosion effect due to the lower content of products causing the potential difference on the walls of the engine system. Natural gas powered vehicles (NGVs) do not emit any substances that can contaminate water or land. The absence of carcinogenic substances in gaseous fuel extends the life of the engine. In the longer term, it contributes positively to waste management as well as waste disposal. Popularization of propulsion systems powered by natural gas CNG positively affects the reduction of heavy duty transport. For these reasons, CNG as a fuel stimulates considerable interest around the world. Over the last few years, technologies related to use of natural gas as an engine fuel have been developed and improved. These solutions have evolved from the prototype phase to the industrial scale implementation. The widespread availability of gaseous fuels has led to the development of a technology that allows the CNG fuel to be refueled directly from the urban gas network to the vehicle tank (ie. HYGEN - CNGHRS). Home refueling installations, although they have been known for many years, are becoming increasingly important in the present day. The major obstacle in the sale of this technology was, until recently, quite high capital expenditure compared to the later benefits. Home refueling systems allow refueling vehicle tank, with full control of fuel costs and refueling time. CNG Home Refueling Stations (such as HYGEN) allow gas value chain to overcome the dogma that there is a lack of refueling infrastructure allowing companies in gas value chain to participate in transportation market. Technology is based on one stage hydraulic compressor (instead of multistage mechanical compressor technology) which provides the possibility to compress low pressure gas from distribution gas network to 200 bar for its further usage as a fuel for NGVs. This boosts revenues and profits of gas companies by expanding its presence in higher margin of energy sector.

Keywords: alternative fuels, CNG (compressed natural gas), CNG stations, NGVs (natural gas vehicles), gas value chain

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Authors: Monish Sengupta, Benjamin Heydecker, Daniel Woodland

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New train control systems rely mainly on Automatic Train Protection (ATP) and Automatic Train Operation (ATO) dynamically to control the speed and hence performance. The ATP and the ATO form the vital element within the CBTC (Communication Based Train Control) and within the ERTMS (European Rail Traffic Management System) system architectures. Reliable and accurate measurement of train location, speed and acceleration are vital to the operation of train control systems. In the past, all CBTC and ERTMS system have deployed a balise or equivalent to correct the uncertainty element of the train location. Typically a CBTC train is allowed to miss only one balise on the track, after which the Automatic Train Protection (ATP) system applies emergency brake to halt the service. This is because the location uncertainty, which grows within the train control system, cannot tolerate missing more than one balise. Balises contribute a significant amount towards wayside maintenance and studies have shown that balises on the track also forms a constraint for future track layout change and change in speed profile.This paper investigates the causes of the location uncertainty that is currently experienced and considers whether it is possible to identify an effective filter to ascertain, in conjunction with appropriate sensors, more accurate speed, distance and location for a CBTC driven train without the need of any external balises. An appropriate sensor fusion algorithm and intelligent sensor selection methodology will be deployed to ascertain the railway location and speed measurement at its highest precision. Similar techniques are already in use in aviation, satellite, submarine and other navigation systems. Developing a model for the speed control and the use of Kalman filter is a key element in this research. This paper will summarize the research undertaken and its significant findings, highlighting the potential for introducing alternative approaches to train positioning that would enable removal of all trackside location correction balises, leading to huge reduction in maintenances and more flexibility in future track design.

Keywords: ERTMS, CBTC, ATP, ATO

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Authors: Xiaoyu Shen, Fang Fang, Chujun Qiu

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Herewith we present a Fourier method for credit risk quantification and allocation in the factor-copula model framework. The key insight is that, compared to directly computing the cumulative distribution function of the portfolio loss via Monte Carlo simulation, it is, in fact, more efficient to calculate the transformation of the distribution function in the Fourier domain instead and inverting back to the real domain can be done in just one step and semi-analytically, thanks to the popular COS method (with some adjustments). We also show that the Euler risk allocation problem can be solved in the same way since it can be transformed into the problem of evaluating a conditional cumulative distribution function. Once the conditional or unconditional cumulative distribution function is known, one can easily calculate various risk metrics. The proposed method not only fills the niche in literature, to the best of our knowledge, of accurate numerical methods for risk allocation but may also serve as a much faster alternative to the Monte Carlo simulation method for risk quantification in general. It can cope with various factor-copula model choices, which we demonstrate via examples of a two-factor Gaussian copula and a two-factor Gaussian-t hybrid copula. The fast error convergence is proved mathematically and then verified by numerical experiments, in which Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and conditional Expected Shortfall are taken as examples of commonly used risk metrics. The calculation speed and accuracy are tested to be significantly superior to the MC simulation for real-sized portfolios. The computational complexity is, by design, primarily driven by the number of factors instead of the number of obligors, as in the case of Monte Carlo simulation. The limitation of this method lies in the "curse of dimension" that is intrinsic to multi-dimensional numerical integration, which, however, can be relaxed with the help of dimension reduction techniques and/or parallel computing, as we will demonstrate in a separate paper. The potential application of this method has a wide range: from credit derivatives pricing to economic capital calculation of the banking book, default risk charge and incremental risk charge computation of the trading book, and even to other risk types than credit risk.

Keywords: credit portfolio, risk allocation, factor copula model, the COS method, Fourier method

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Essadik Kerkar, Abdelhamid Hebbouche

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According to the randomness of most of the factors affecting the stability of a gravity dam, probability theory is generally used to TESTING the risk of failure and there is a confusing logical transition from the state of stability failed state, so the stability failure process is considered as a probable event. The control of risk of product failures is of capital importance for the control from a cross analysis of the gravity of the consequences and effects of the probability of occurrence of identified major accidents and can incur a significant risk to the concrete dam structures. Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding the reliability and structural failure of the works, including when calculating stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of the reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case of the use of level II methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type FORM (First Order Reliability Method), SORM (Second Order Reliability Method). By way of comparison, a second level III method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involving an integration of the probability density function of, random variables are extended to the field of security by using of the method of Mont-Carlo simulations. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme the acting on the dam, calculation results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities thus causing a significant decrease in strength, especially in the presence of combinations of unique and extreme loads. Shear forces then induce a shift threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case THE increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: dam, failure, limit state, monte-carlo, reliability, probability, sliding, Taylor

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Authors: Giulia Balestracci

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Pakistan is endowed with diversified natural capital spanning along the 1000-kilometer-long coastline, shared by the coastal provinces of Sindh and Balochistan. It includes some of the most diverse, extensive, and least disturbed reef areas in the Indian Ocean. Pakistani marine and coastal ecosystems are fundamental for the social and economic well-being of the region. They support economic activities such as fishing, shrimp farming, tourism, and shipping, which contribute to income, food security, and the livelihood of millions of people. The coastal regions of Sindh and Balochistan are rich in natural resources and diverse ecosystems, and host also rural coastal communities that have been the keepers of rich cultural legacies and pristine natural landscapes. However, significant barriers hinder tourism development, such as the daunting socio-economic challenges, including the post-COVID-19 scenario, forced migration, institutional gaps, and the ravages of climate change. Pakistan holds immense potential for the tourism sector development within the framework of a sustainable blue economy, thereby fostering greener economic growth and employment opportunities, securing financing for the protection and conservation of its coastal and marine natural assets. Based on the assessment of Pakistan’s natural and cultural coastal and maritime tourism resources, a deep study of the regulatory and institutional aspects of the tourism sector in the country accompanied by the SWOT analysis and accompanied by an in-depth interview with a member of the Pakistan National Tourism Coordination Board (NTCB). A market analysis has been developed, and Lao PDR, Thailand, and Indonesia’s ecotourism development have been analyzed under a comparative analysis length to recommend some nature-based tourism activities for the sustainable development of the coastal areas in Pakistan. Nature-based tourism represents a win-win option as it uses economic incentives for the protection and cultural uses of natural resources. This article stresses the importance of nature-based activities for blue tourism, aligning conservation with developmental goals to safeguard natural resources and cultural heritage, all while fostering economic prosperity.

Keywords: blue tourism, coastal Pakistan, nature-based tourism, sustainable blue economy, sustainable development

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Authors: Erkingul Soltanaeva, Omyrkhan Abdimanuly, Alua Temirbolat

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In this article, the public and social functions of literature and art in the Republic of Kazakhstan were analyzed on the basis of formal and informal literary organizations. The external and internal, subjective and objective factors which influenced the modern literary process were determined. The literary forces, their consolidation, types of organization in the art of word were examined. The periods of the literary process as planning, organization, promotion, and evaluation and their leading forces and approaches were analyzed. The right point of view to the language and mentality of the society force will influence to the literary process. The Ministry of Culture, the Writers' Union of RK and various non-governmental organizations are having different events for the promotion of literary process and to glorify literary personalities in the entire territory of Kazakhstan. According to the cultural plan of different state administration, there was a big program in order to publish their literary encyclopedia, to glorify and distribute books of own poets and writers of their region to the country. All of these official measures will increase the reader's interest in the book and will also bring up people to the patriotic education and improve the status of the native language. The professional literary publications such as the newspaper ‘Kazakh literature’, magazine ‘Zhuldyz’, and journal ‘Zhalyn’ materials which were published in the periods 2013-2015 on the basis of statistical analysis of the Kazakh literature topical to the issues and the field of themes are identified and their level of connection with the public situations are defined. The creative freedom, relations between society and the individual, the state of the literature, the problems of advantages and disadvantages were taken into consideration in the same articles. The level of functions was determined through the public role of literature, social feature, personal peculiarities. Now the stages as the literature management planning, organization, motivation, as well as the evaluation are forming and developing in Kazakhstan. But we still need the development of literature management to satisfy the actual requirements of the today’s agenda.

Keywords: literature management, material, literary process, social functions

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Authors: Tamekloe Michael Kossivi, Kenichi Matsui

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Irrigation access is one of the essential rural development investment options that can significantly improve smallholder farmers’ agriculture productivity. Investment in irrigation infrastructural development to supply adequate water could improve food security, growth in income for farmers, poverty alleviation, and improve business and livelihood. This paper assesses smallholder farmers’ constraints and the needs to adopt small-scale irrigation for crops production in the South Tongu District of Ghana. The data collection involved database search, questionnaire survey, interview, and field work. The structured questionnaire survey was administered from September to November 2020 among 120 respondents in six purposively sampled irrigation communities in the District. The questions focused on small-scale irrigation development constraints and needs. As a result, we found that the respondents relied mainly on rainfall for agriculture production. They did not have adequate irrigation access. Even though the District is blessed with open arable lands and rich water sources for rice and vegetable production on a massive scale, water sources like the Lower Volta River, Tordzi River, and Avu Lagoon were not close enough to the respondents. The respondents faced inadequate credit support (100%), unreliable rainfall (76%), insufficient water supply (54%), and unreliable water delivery challenges on their farms (53%). Physical constraints for the respondents to adopt irrigation included flood (77%), drought (93%), inadequate irrigation technology (59%), and insufficient technical know-how (65%). Farmers were interested in investing in irrigation infrastructural development to enhance productivity on their farms only if they own the farmlands. External support from donors on irrigation systems did not allow smallholder farmers to control irrigation facilities.

Keywords: constraints, food security, needs, smallholder farmers, small-scale irrigation

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Authors: Moh’d Anwer Al-Shboul

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The year 2011 was a challenging year for Jordanian economy, which felt a variety of effects from the Arab Spring which took place in neighboring countries. Since February, 5th 2012, the Arab Gas Supply Pipeline, which carries natural gas from Egypt through the Sinai Peninsula and to Jordan and Israel, has been attacked more than 39 times. Jordan imported about 80 percent of its necessity of natural gas (about 250 million cubic feet of natural gas per day) from Egypt to generate particularly electricity, with the reminder of being produced locally. Jordan has utilized multiple alternatives to address the interruption of available natural gas supply from Egypt. The Jordanian distributed power plants now rely on the use of heavy fuel oil and diesel for electricity generation, in this case, it costs Jordan about four times than natural gas. The substitution of Egyptian natural gas supplies by fuel oil and diesel, coupled with the 32 percent rise in global fuel prices, has increased Jordan’s energy import bill by over 50 percent in 2011, reaching more than 16 percent of the 2011 GDP. The increase in the cost of electricity generation pushed the Jordanian economy to borrow from multiple internal and external resource channels, thus increasing the public debt. The Jordanian government’s short-term solution to the reduced natural gas supply from Egypt was alternatively purchasing the necessary quantities from some Gulf countries such as Qatar and/or Saudi Arabia, which can be imported with two possible methods. The first method is to rent a ship equipped with a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, which is currently operating. The second method requires equipping the Aqaba port with an LNG terminal, which also currently is operating. In the long-term, a viable solution to depending on importing expensive and often unreliable natural gas supplies from surrounding countries is to depend more heavily on renewable supply energy, including solar, wind, and water energy.

Keywords: energy supply resources, Arab spring, liquefied natural gas, pipeline, Jordan

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Authors: Michaela Storen, Michelle Harvey, Xavier Conlan

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Gun violence internationally is increasing at an unprecedented level, becoming a favoured means for executing violence against another individual. Not only is this putting a strain on forensic scientists who attempt to determine the cause of death in circumstances where firearms have been involved in the death of an individual, but it also highlights the need for an alternative technique of identification of a gunshot wound when other established techniques have been exhausted. A corpse may be colonized by necrophagous insects following death, and this close association between the time of death and insect colonization makes entomological samples valuable evidence when remains become decomposed beyond toxicological utility. Entomotoxicology provides the potential for the identification of toxins in a decomposing corpse, with recent research uncovering the capabilities of entomotoxicology to detect gunshot residue (GSR) in a corpse. However, shortcomings of the limited literature available on this topic have not been addressed, with the bioaccumulation, detection limits, and sensitivity to gunshots not considered thus far, leaving questions as to the applicability of this new technique in the forensic context. Larvae were placed on meat contaminated with GSR at different concentrations and compared to a control meat sample to establish the uptake of GSR by the larvae, with bioaccumulation established by placing the larvae on fresh, uncontaminated meat for a period of time before analysis using ICP-MS. The findings of Pb, Ba, and Sb at each stage of the lifecycle and bioaccumulation in the larvae will be presented. In addition, throughout these previously mentioned experiments, larvae were washed once, twice and three times to evaluate the effectiveness of existing entomological practices in removing external toxins from specimens prior to entomotoxicologyical analysis. Analysis of these larval washes will be presented. By addressing these points, this research extends the utility of entomotoxicology in cause-of-death investigations and provides an additional source of evidence for forensic scientists in the circumstances involving a gunshot wound on a corpse, in addition to advising the effectiveness of current entomology collection protocols.

Keywords: bioaccumulation, chemistry, entomology, gunshot residue, toxicology

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Authors: Yasaman Ashrafi, Stephen Kajewski, Annastiina Silvennoinen, Madhav Nepal

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Mega projects either in construction, urban development or energy sectors are one of the key drivers that build the foundation of wealth and modern civilizations in regions and nations. Such projects require economic justification and substantial capital investment, often derived from individual and corporate investors as well as governments. Cost overruns and time delays in these mega projects demands a new approach to more accurately predict project costs and establish realistic financial plans. The significance of this paper is that the cost efficiency of megaprojects will improve and decrease cost overruns. This research will assist Project Managers (PMs) to make timely and appropriate decisions about both cost and outcomes of ongoing projects. This research, therefore, examines the oil and gas industry where most mega projects apply the classic methods of Cost Performance Index (CPI) and Schedule Performance Index (SPI) and rely on project data to forecast cost and time. Because these projects are always overrun in cost and time even at the early phase of the project, the probabilistic methods of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Bayesian Adaptive Forecasting method were used to predict project cost at completion of projects. The current theoretical and mathematical models which forecast the total expected cost and project completion date, during the execution phase of an ongoing project will be evaluated. Earned Value Management (EVM) method is unable to predict cost at completion of a project accurately due to the lack of enough detailed project information especially in the early phase of the project. During the project execution phase, the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method incorporates predictions into the actual performance data from earned value management and revises pre-project cost estimates, making full use of the available information. The outcome of this research is to improve the accuracy of both cost prediction and final duration. This research will provide a warning method to identify when current project performance deviates from planned performance and crates an unacceptable gap between preliminary planning and actual performance. This warning method will support project managers to take corrective actions on time.

Keywords: cost forecasting, earned value management, project control, project management, risk analysis, simulation

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Authors: Mariana Thimotheo, Gabriel Carvalho Ripamonte, Marina De Almeida Nogueira, Silvia Camila Da Costa Aguiar, Marcelo Henrique Santana Ulian, Euclides Braga Malheiros, Isabel Cristina Boleli

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Beak plays a fundamental role in the hatching process of the chicks, since it is used for internal and external pipping. The present study examined whether the size of the beak influences the birth period of the broiler chicks in the hatching window. It was analyzed the beak size (length, height and width) of one-hundred twenty nine newly hatched chicks from light eggs (56.22-61.05g) and one-hundred twenty six chicks from heavy eggs (64.95-70.90g), produced by 38 and 45 weeks old broiler breeders (Cobb 500®), respectively. Egg incubation occurred at 37.5°C and 60% RH, with egg turning every hour. Length, height and width of the beaks were measured using a digital caliper (Zaas precision - digital caliper 6", 0.01mm) and the data expressed in millimeters. The beak length corresponded to distance between the tip of the beak and the rictus. The height of the beak was measured in the region of the culmen and its width in the region of the nostrils. Data were analyzed following a 3x2 factorial experimental design, being three birth periods within the hatching window (early: 471.78 to 485.42h, intermediate: 485.43 to 512.27h, and late: 512.28 to 528.72h) and two egg weights (light and heavy). There was a significant interaction between birth period and egg weight for beak height (P < 0.05), which was higher in the intermediate chicks from heavy eggs than in the other chicks from the same egg weight and chicks from light eggs (P < 0.05), that did not differ (P > 0.05). The beak length was influenced only for a birth period, and decreased through the hatch window (early < intermediate < late) (P < 0.05). The width of the beaks was influenced by both main factors, birth period and egg weight (P < 0.05). Early and intermediate chicks had similar beak width, but greater than late chicks, and chicks from heavy eggs presented greater beak width than chicks from light eggs (P < 0.05). In sum, the results show that chicks with longer beak hatch first and that beak length is an important variable for hatch period determination mainly for light eggs.

Keywords: beak dimensions, egg weight, hatching period, hatching window

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