Search results for: financial risks

Authors: Nur Mohammad Ali, Md. Shafiqul Alam, Jayanta Bhusan Deb, Nowrin Sharmin

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The past ten years have seen significant expansion in the aviation sector, which during the previous five years has steadily pushed emerging countries closer to economic independence. It is crucial to accurately forecast the potential demand for air travel to make long-term financial plans. To forecast market demand for low-cost passenger carriers, this study suggests working with low-cost airlines, airports, consultancies, and governmental institutions' strategic planning divisions. The study aims to develop an artificial intelligence-based methods, notably fuzzy inference systems (FIS), to determine the most accurate forecasting technique for domestic low-cost carrier demand in Bangladesh. To give end users real-world applications, the study includes nine variables, two sub-FIS, and one final Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System utilizing a graphical user interface (GUI) made with the app designer tool. The evaluation criteria used in this inquiry included mean square error (MSE), accuracy, precision, sensitivity, and specificity. The effectiveness of the developed air passenger demand prediction FIS is assessed using 240 data sets, and the accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, and MSE values are 90.83%, 91.09%, 90.77%, and 2.09%, respectively.

Keywords: aviation industry, fuzzy inference system, membership function, graphical user interference

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Authors: Chairun Wiedyaningsih, Sri Suryawati, Yati Soenarto, Muhammad Hakimi

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Background: Many drugs used in paediatrics are not commercially available in suitable dosage forms. Therefore, the drugs often prescribed in extemporaneous compounding dosage form. Compounding can pose health risks include poor quality and unsafe products. Studies of compounding dosage form have primarily focused on prescription profiles, reasons of prescribing never be explored. Objectives: The study was conducted to identify factors influencing physicians’ decision to prescribe extemporaneous compounding dosage form for paediatric outpatients. Setting: Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta (DIY) province, Indonesia. Method: Qualitative semi-structured interviews were conducted with 15 general physicians and 7 paediatricians to identify the reason of prescribing extemporaneous compounding dosage form. The interviews were transcribed and analysed using thematic analysis. Results: Factors underlying prescribing of compounding could be categorized to therapy, healthcare system, patient and past experience. The primary reasons of therapy factors were limited availability of drug compositions, dosages or formulas specific for children. Beliefs in efficacy of the compounding forms were higher when the drugs used primarily to overcome complex cases. Physicians did not concern about compounding form containing several active substances because manufactured syrups may also contain several active substances. Although medicines were available in manufactured syrups, limited institutional budget was healthcare system factor of compounding prescribing. The prescribing factors related to patients include easy to use, efficient and lower price. The prescribing factors related to past experience were physicians’ beliefs to the progress of patient's health status. Conclusions: Compounding was prescribed based on therapy-related factors, healthcare system factors, patient factors and past experience.

Keywords: compounding dosage form, interview, physician, prescription

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Authors: Jana Gebhartova, Tomas Duda, Ivan Benes

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World is characterized by constantly emerging new links, increasing complexity and speed of processes in the society. The globalized world needs (except political and financial mechanisms and institutions) functional supply chains. Transport and supply chains can be interrupted in case of natural disasters, conflicts and civil disorders, sudden demand shocks, export/import restrictions, terrorism. Long-term interruption of crucial services for human existence can results in breakdown of the whole society. If global supply chains can be interrupted, the ability to survive a crisis situation depends on local self-sufficiency, it means ensuring water, food and energy. In the world of 21st century, new way of thinking (based on the concept of resilience) is needed. Planning for self-sufficiency and resilience must be part of the agenda of local governments. The paper presents first results of research project VF20112015518 “Security of population – crisis management” that deals with issue of critical infrastructure, ensuring regional self-sufficiency in crisis situations and issues related to population protection and water, energy and food security. The project is being solved within Security Research of Ministry of the Interior of the Czech Republic in 2011-2015.

Keywords: crisis management, resilience, indicators of self-sufficiency, continuity of supplies

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Authors: Naser Ebadati

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introductory statement: Drilling operations in oil wells often involve significant risks due to varying azimuths, slopes, and the passage through layers with different lithological properties. As a result, maintaining well stability is crucial. Instability in wells can lead to costly well losses, interrupted drilling operations, and halted production from reservoirs. Objective: One of the key challenges in drilling operations is ensuring the stability of the wellbore, particularly in loose and low-resistance formations. These factors make the analysis and evaluation of well stability essential. Therefore, building a geo mechanical model for a hydrocarbon field or reservoir requires both a stress field model and a mechanical properties model of the geological formations. Numerous studies have focused on analyzing the stability of well walls, an issue known as well instability. This study aims to analyze the stability and the safe mud weight window for drilling in one of the oil fields in southern Iran. Methodology: In wellbore stability analysis, it is essential to consider the stress field model, which includes values and directions of the three principal stresses, and the mechanical properties model, which covers elastic properties and rock fracture characteristics. Wellbore instability arises from mechanical failure of the rock. Well stability can be maintained by adjusting the drilling mud weight. This study investigates wellbore stability using field data. The lithological characteristics of the well mainly consist of limestone, dolomite, and shale, as determined from log data. Wellbore logging was conducted throughout the well to calculate the required drilling mud pressure using the Mohr-Coulomb criterion. Findings: The results indicate that the safe and stable drilling mud window ranges between 17.13 MPa and 27.80 MPa. By comparing and calculating induced stresses, it was determined that the wellbore wall primarily exhibits shear fractures in the form of wide shear fractures and tensile fractures in the form of radial tensile fractures.

Keywords: drilling mud weight, formation evaluation, sheer strees, safe window

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Authors: Mohammad Shoaib Khan, Abdul Sattar Bahalkani

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This research investigates the violence and their impact on SMEs in Sindh. The main objective of current research is to examine the women empowerment through women participation in small and medium enterprises in upper Sindh. The data were collected from 500 respondents from Kandhkot District, by using simple random technique. A structural questionnaire was designed as an instrument for measuring the impact of SMEs business in women empowerment in rural Sindh. It was revealed that the rural women is less confident and their husbands were always given them hard time once they are exposing themselves to outside the boundaries of the house. It was revealed that rural women have a major contribution in social, economic, and political development. It was further revealed that women are getting low wages and due to non-availability of market facility they are paying low wages. The negative impact of husbands’ income and having children at the age of 0-6 years old are also significant. High income of other household member raises the reservation wage of mothers, thus lowers the probability of participation when the objective of working is to help family’s financial need. The impact of childcare on mothers’ labor force participation is significant but not as the theory predicted. The probability of participation in labor force is significantly higher for women who lived in the urban areas where job opportunities are greater compared to the rural.

Keywords: empowerment, violence against women, SMEs, rural

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Authors: Ntokozo Dennis Ndwandwe

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The aim of the study was to explore the barriers facing the implementation of peace education as a strategy to combat violence in selected secondary schools in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. The problem that motivated this enquiry was the absence of stable peace and the increase of incidents of violence in schools. A qualitative approach was followed when conducting the study, and small samples of three case studies of secondary schools were used. Method used in collecting data consisted of semi-structured interviews; focus group interviews and observation. The participants consisted of the program manager for Quaker for Peace Centre (QPC), three principals, nine teachers, and fifteen learners. Data were analysed by transcribing, organising, marking by hand and coding that produced labels that allowed key points to be highlighted. Findings revealed that the effective implementation of peace education was being constrained by factors such as financial constraints, inadequate time allocated, lack of parental involvement, over work-loaded teachers, negative attitude and other societal influences. It is recommended that teachers should receive an ongoing training for peace education. Therefore, the government should prioritise and provide funds for peace education. In addition, parental involvement should be improved in order to enhance the implementation of peace education in selected secondary schools.

Keywords: barriers, implementation, conflict, peace, peace education, conflict resolution, violence

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Authors: Kwabena Asare, Ezekiel N. N. Nortey, Felix O. Mettle

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Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana Stock Exchange All-Shares indices (2000-2010) by applying the Extreme Value Theory to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model’s goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

Keywords: extreme value theory, expected shortfall, generalized pareto distribution, peak over threshold, value at risk

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Authors: Aurora Gitto, Philipp Proksch

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The presence of various microorganisms (bacteria, fungi) in surface water and groundwater represents an important issue for human health worldwide. The matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF-MS) has emerged as a promising and reliable tool for bacteria identification in clinical diagnostic microbiology and environmental strains thanks to an ionization technique that uses a laser energy absorbing matrix to create ions from large molecules with minimal fragmentation. The study aims first to conceptualise and set up library information and create a comprehensive database of MALDI-TOF-MS spectra from environmental water samples. The samples were analysed over a year (2021-2022) using membrane filtration methodology (0.45 μm and 0.22 μm) and then isolated on R2A agar for a period of 5 days and Yeast extract agar growing at 22 °C up to 4 days and 37 °C for 48 hours. The undetected organisms by MALDI-TOF-MS were analysed by PCR and then sequenced. The information obtained by the sequencing was further implemented in the MALDI-TOF-MS library. Among the culturable bacteria, the results show how the incubator temperature affects the growth of some genera instead of others, as demonstrated by Pseudomonas sp., which grows at 22 °C, compared to Bacillus sp., which is abundant at 37 °C. The bacteria community shows a variation in composition also between the media used, as demonstrated with R2A agar which has been defined by a higher presence of organisms not detected compared to YEA. Interesting is the variability of the Genus over one year of sampling and how the seasonality impacts the bacteria community; in fact, in some sampling locations, we observed how the composition changed, moving from winter to spring and summer. In conclusion, the bacteria community in groundwater and river bank filtration represents important information that needs to be added to the library to simplify future water quality analysis but mainly to prevent potential risks to human health.

Keywords: water quality, MALDI-TOF-MS, sequencing, library

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Authors: Fiona Bei Na Tan, Glen Wen Kiat Ho, Ee Leen Liow, Li Yin Tan, Sean Wei Loong Ho

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Background: Shoulder arthroscopy is an increasingly common procedure. Pneumothorax post-shoulder arthroscopy is a rare complication. Objectives: Our aim is to highlight a case report of pneumothorax post shoulder arthroscopy and to conduct a literature review to evaluate the possible risk factors associated with developing a pneumothorax during or after shoulder arthroscopy. Case Report: We report the case of a 75-year-old male non-smoker who underwent left shoulder arthroscopy without regional anaesthesia and in the left lateral position. The general anaesthesia and surgery were uncomplicated. The patient was desaturated postoperatively and was found to have a pneumothorax on examination and chest X-ray. A chest tube drain was inserted promptly into the right chest. He had an uncomplicated postoperative course. Methods: PubMed Medline and Cochrane database search was carried out using the terms shoulder arthroplasty, pneumothorax, pneumomediastinum, and subcutaneous emphysema. We selected full-text articles written in English. Results: Thirty-two articles were identified and thoroughly reviewed. Based on our inclusion and exclusion criteria, 14 articles, which included 20 cases of pneumothorax during or after shoulder arthroscopy, were included. Eighty percent (16/20) of pneumothoraxes occurred postoperatively. In the articles that specify the side of pneumothorax, 91% (10/11) occur on the ipsilateral side of the arthroscopy. Eighty-eight percent (7/8) of pneumothoraxes occurred when subacromial decompression was performed. Fifty-six percent (9/16) occurred in patients placed in the lateral decubitus position. Only 30% (6/20) occurred in current or ex-smokers, and only 25% (5/20) had a pre-existing lung condition. Overall, of the articles that posit a mechanism, 75% (9/12) deem the pathogenesis to be multifactorial. Conclusion: The exact mechanism of pneumothorax is currently unknown. Awareness of this complication and timely recognition are important to prevent life-threatening sequelae. Surgeons should have a low threshold to obtain diagnostic plain radiographs in the event of clinical suspicion.

Keywords: rotator cuff repair, decompression, pressure, complication

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Authors: Hasan Bulent Kantarci

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This paper examine how Zakat provide a fair income redistribution and struggle with poverty. To provide a fair income redistribution and struggle with poverty take place among the fundamental tasks of all countries. Each country seeks a solution for this problem according to their political, economical and administrative styles through applying various economic and financial policies. The same situation gets handled via zakat association in the Islam. Nowadays, we observe different versions of zakat in developed countries. The applications such as negative income tax denote merely a difference from the zakat being applied almost the same way under changed names. But the minimum values to donate the zakat (e.g. 85 gr. gold and 40 animals) get altered and various amounts are put into practice. It might be named as negative income tax instead of zakat, nonetheless, these applications are based on the Holy Koran and the hadith released 1400 years ago. Besides, considering the savage and slavery in the world at those times, we might easily recognize the true value of the zakat applied the first time then in Islamic system. Through zakat is enabled an income transfer by the government so that the poor could reach the minimum level of life standard. To whom the zakat would be donated was not left to people’s heart and encouraged to determine according to objective criteria. Since the zakat is obligatory, the transfer do not get forward by hand but via the government and get distributed, which requires a vast government organization. Through applying the zakat as it must be would achieve to reduce the poverty mostly and ensuring the fair income redistribution.

Keywords: Islamic finance, zakat, income redistribution, circle of poverty, negatif income tax

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Authors: Sarah Elmammeri

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This paper will represent the postcolonial every day in the journey of asylum seekers through the asylum process in the UK. It represents everyday borders, which are defined as everyday barriers, and obstacles facing asylum seekers and refugees in the host country. These everyday barriers can be legal, financial, social and educational under the umbrella of the racialized administrative border creating a package. The arguments build on a set of 21 semi-structured interviews in English and Arabic. The interviews were conducted in the UK, online via zoom lasting between 25 minutes and 2 hours with asylum seekers, refugees, Non-governmental organisations workers and volunteers. The interviews focus on the meaning of borders both physical and metaphorical and ways to challenge the ongoing postcolonial everyday border practices. The findings conclude that these barriers are there deliberately and intentionally to target asylum seekers and limit their legal right to claim asylum in a form of policy and regulations. People in the asylum process, NGO workers, and refugees relate to this aspect of the everyday borders. Second, these barriers come intertwined together creating a structure that interferes with the daily life of an asylum seeker and later affects people with refugee status creating racialised barriers starting with the structural and official form of it: the asylum process. These structural barriers will be linked forming a multi-level barrier enhancing the racialisation of people who are categorised and selected.

Keywords: everyday borders, asylum policies, inclusion and exclusion, refugees and asylum seekers

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Authors: Mohammad Namazi, Mohammad Sadeghzadeh Maharluie

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Predicting earnings management is vital for the capital market participants, financial analysts and managers. The aim of this research is attempting to respond to this query: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and neural networks’ models in predicting earnings management, and which one leads to a superior prediction of it? In approaching this question, a Linear Regression (LR) model was compared with two neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN). The population of this study includes 94 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2003 to 2011. After the results of all models were acquired, ANOVA was exerted to test the hypotheses. In general, the summary of statistical results showed that the precision of GRNN did not exhibit a significant difference in comparison with MLP. In addition, the mean square error of the MLP and GRNN showed a significant difference with the multi variable LR model. These findings support the notion of nonlinear behavior of the earnings management. Therefore, it is more appropriate for capital market participants to analyze earnings management based upon neural networks techniques, and not to adopt linear regression models.

Keywords: earnings management, generalized linear regression, neural networks multi-layer perceptron, Tehran stock exchange

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Authors: Sung-Jun Yoo, Kazuhide Ito

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In this study, a comprehensive computer simulated person (CSP) that integrates computational human model (virtual manikin) and respiratory tract model (virtual airway), was applied for estimation of indoor environmental quality. Moreover, an inclusive prediction method was established by integrating computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis with advanced CSP which is combined with physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model, unsteady thermoregulation model for analysis targeting micro-climate around human body and respiratory area with high accuracy. This comprehensive method can estimate not only the contaminant inhalation but also constant interaction in the contaminant transfer between indoor spaces, i.e., a target area for indoor air quality (IAQ) assessment, and respiratory zone for health risk assessment. This study focused on the usage of the CSP as an air/thermal quality sensor in indoors, which means the application of comprehensive model for assessment of IAQ and thermal environmental quality. Demonstrative analysis was performed in order to examine the applicability of the comprehensive model to the heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC) control scheme. CSP was located at the center of the simple model room which has dimension of 3m×3m×3m. Formaldehyde which is generated from floor material was assumed as a target contaminant, and flow field, sensible/latent heat and contaminant transfer analysis in indoor space were conducted by using CFD simulation coupled with CSP. In this analysis, thermal comfort was evaluated by thermoregulatory analysis, and respiratory exposure risks represented by adsorption flux/concentration at airway wall surface were estimated by PBPK-CFD hybrid analysis. These Analysis results concerning IAQ and thermal comfort will be fed back to the HVAC control and could be used to find a suitable ventilation rate and energy requirement for air conditioning system.

Keywords: CFD simulation, computer simulated person, HVAC control, indoor environmental quality

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Authors: Lejla Sunagic

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The aim of the manuscript is to further the understanding of risky decision-making in the context of forced and irregular migration. The empirical evidence is collected through interviews with Syrian refugees who arrived in Europe via irregular pathways. Analytically, it has been approached through the juxtaposition between risk perception and the notion of desire. As different frameworks have been developed to address differences in risk perception, the common thread was the understanding that individual risk-taking has been addressed in terms of benefits outweighing risks. However, this framework cannot explain a big risk an individual takes because of an underprivileged position and due to a lack of positive alternatives, termed as risk-taking from vulnerability. The accounts of the field members of this study that crossed the sea in rubber boats to arrive in Europe make an empirical fit to such a postulate by reporting that the risk they have taken was not the choice but the only coping strategy. However, the vulnerability argument falls short of explaining why the interviewees, thinking retrospectively, find the risky journey they have taken to be worth it, while they would strongly advise others to restrain from taking such a huge risk. This inconsistency has been addressed by adding the notion of desire to migrate to the elements of risk perception. Desire, as a subjective experience, was what made the risk appear smaller in cost-benefit analysis at the time of decision-making of those who have realized migration. However, when they reflect on others in the context of potential migration via the same pathway, the interviewees addressed the others’ lack of capacity to avoid the same obstacles that they themselves were able to circumvent while omitting to reflect on others’ desire to migrate. Thus, in the risk-benefit analysis performed for others, the risk remains unblurred and tips over the benefits, given the inability to take into account the desire of others. If desire, as the transformative potential of migration, is taken out of the cost-benefit analysis of irregular migration, refugees might not have taken the risky journey. By casting the theoretical argument in the language of configuration, the study is filling in the gap of knowledge on the combination of migration drivers and the way they interact and produce migration outcomes.

Keywords: refugees, risk perception, desire, irregular migration

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Authors: Merly Patiño Villanueva, Dubys Villarreal Torres, Eduardo Salazar Araujo, Lezly Ramos Macedo

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The concept of sustainability has been influencing business thinking from the perspective of various economic sectors and their environment, looking for concerns related to the risks associated with the indiscriminate consumption of the planet's resources, which have been widely studied and exposed by different public and private organizations. Tourism is not outsider to this reality; therefore, the concept of sustainable tourism evolves towards the integral management of resources, attending the needs of tourists, host communities and service providers, protecting ecosystems and assuring the conservation of the environment and its biodiversity. Considering the above, the purpose of this paper is to identify trends aimed at promoting sustainable tourism in the destinations of Barranquilla (Colombia) and Nayarit (Mexico). This study is part of the realistic epistemological paradigm, based on the existence of a specific environment for the development of tourism activity and the best sustainability practices associated with this industry, which can be observed and studied, therefore, this research contemplates qualitative research techniques such as the focus group and the interview, applied to 8 experts who are part of the value chain of the sector under study, added to a documentary review taken from the scientific databases Wos and Scopus, as well as statistical information published by official bodies. The data obtained were processed with the qualitative analysis software N-VIVO version 13. As a result, trends and actions to promote tourism are identified for the positioning of the cities of Barranquilla (Colombia) and Nayarit (Mexico) as sustainable destinations: first, the recovery of green areas and environmental spaces, as well as the realization of cultural events; promotion and encouragement of the creative industry and finally the realization of international events. It is concluded that both cities develop activities, projects and investments of public initiative, aimed at positioning them as sustainable tourist destinations.

Keywords: marketing, sustainability, tourism management, policies

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Authors: Raiya Kishwar Ashraf

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The National University, the largest public educational institution in Bangladesh, recently made it mandatory for all students to study a course in Bangladesh‘s history of the 1971 Liberation War. This introduction was accompanied by massive political, financial and academic movement that allocated resources towards achieving greater awareness of the country‘s spirit, goals of liberation and patriotism among the youth. This study argues that the infrastructure and political economy around the course heavily politicizes the education system and more specifically the teaching and learning the process. By conducting a qualitative study in three affiliated colleges under the National University, this study aimed to explore the extent to which politicization affected higher education curriculum, especially history education in Bangladesh. The findings revealed significant levels of politicization and structural constraints present in the process that restricts the teacher and student engagement with course materials. The results of this study are useful for curriculum designers and higher education teachers and staffs who wish to develop content and deliver education that promotes critical inquiry among students. The findings further shed light on the importance of identifying and addressing political influences in education curriculum and programme development.

Keywords: Bangladesh higher education, critical thinking, curriculum politicization, history curriculum, National University, teaching-learning method

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Authors: Athena Pedro, Laura Bradfield, Mike Dare, Zandile Bantwana, Ashley Nayman

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The purpose of the research was to explore mother’s unique experience and knowledge of mothering in the first 1000 day of their child’s life, from birth to age 2. The study used a qualitative research methodology with an exploratory research design. A sample of 12 mothers was used, comprising different racial backgrounds from low income areas in the Western Cape. The data was collected by means of semi-structured, in-depth interviews, which were transcribed verbatim, analysed using Braun’s and Clark’s (2006) six phases of thematic analysis. Some of the findings revealed that the mothers who participated in the study were consistently unable to feed their children and themselves due to profound and extreme situations of poverty, stress, and lack of infrastructural support. These mothers residing in low-income communities are not adequately supported both financially and socially and are often unable to meet the needs of their infants within the first 1000 days. Given the consequential nature of this period, it is imperative that mothers are able to access such support. Single mothers especially are in need of social and financial support. Appropriate interventions are required to assist mothers generally but more specifically, mothers who have children within the first 1000 days of life. By implementing appropriate interventions to address these needs, it will assist mothers to ensure optimal developmental growth of their children. This will positively impact the developmental trajectory of children in South Africa.

Keywords: caring, economic hardship, first one thousand days, mothers

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Authors: Jolanta Brodowska-Szewczuk

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The article includes the results and conclusions from empirical researches that had been done. The research focuses on the impact of investments made in small and medium-sized enterprises financed from EU funds on the competitiveness of these companies. The researches includes financial results in sales revenue and net income, expenses, and many other new products/services on offer, higher quality products and services, more modern methods of production, innovation in management processes, increase in the number of customers, increase in market share, increase in profitability of production and provision of services. The main conclusions are that, companies with direct investments under this measure shall apply the modern methods of production. The consequence of this is to increase the quality of our products and services. Furthermore, both small and medium-sized enterprises have introduced new products and services. Investments were carried out, thus enabling better work organization in enterprises. Entrepreneurs would guarantee higher quality of service, which would result in better relationships with their customers, what is more, noting the rise in number of clients. More than half of the companies indicated that the investments contributed to the increase in market share. Same thing as for market reach and brand recognition of particular company. An interesting finding is that, investments in small enterprises were more effective than medium-sized enterprises.

Keywords: competitiveness, efficiency, EU funds, small and medium-sized enterprises

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Authors: K. W. A. M. Kokila, Matsui Kenichi

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Sri Lanka’s disaster management policy aims to protect lives and developments in disaster affected areas by effectively using resources for disaster risk reduction, emergency management, and community awareness. However, funding for these action programs has posed a serious challenge to the country’s economy. This paper examines the extent to which private-public partnerships (PPPs) can facilitate and expedite disaster management works. In particular, it discusses the results of the questionnaire survey among policymakers, government administrators, NGOs, and private businesses. This questionnaire was conducted in 2017. All respondents were selected based on their experience in PPP projects in the past. The survey focused on clarifying the effectiveness of past PPP projects as well as their efficiency and transparency. The respondents also provided their own opinions and suggestions to improve the future PPP projects in Sri Lanka. The questionnaire was distributed to fifteen persons. The results show that almost all respondents think that PPP projects are beneficial and important for future disaster risk management in Sri Lanka. The respondents, however, showed some reservation about effectiveness and transparency of the PPP process. This paper also discusses the results on the respondents’ perceptions about their capacity regarding human resources and management. This paper, overall, sheds light on technological, financial and human resource management practices in developed countries as well as policy and legislation provisions regarding PPP projects.

Keywords: disaster management, policy, private public partnership, projects

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Authors: J. Cadby, K. Miyazawa

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Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has been widely adopted into the agricultural landscape with advancements of mobile connectivity and data accessibility. In developed nations, mobile-technology is well integrated into marketing transactions, and also plays a crucial role in making data-driven decisions on-farm. In developing nations, mobile banking and access to agricultural extension services allow for informed decision-making and smoother transactions. In addition, the availability of updated and readily available market and climate data provides a negotiation platform, reducing economic risks for farmers worldwide. The total usage of mobile technology has risen over the past 20 years, and almost three-quarters of the world’s population subscribes to mobile technology. This study reviewed mobile technology integration into agricultural systems in developing and developed nations. Data from secondary sources were collected and investigated. The objectives of the study include a review of the success of mobile banking transactions in developing nations, and a review of application and SMS based services for direct marketing in both developed and developing nations. Rural farmers in developing countries with access to diverse m-banking options experienced increased access to farm investment resources with the use of mobile banking technology. Rural farmers involved in perishable crop production were also more likely to benefit from mobile platform sales participation. ICT programs reached through mobile application and SMS increased access to agricultural extension materials and marketing tools for demographics that faced literacy-challenges and isolated markets. As mobile technology becomes more ubiquitous in the global agricultural system, training and market opportunities to facilitate mobile usage in developing agricultural systems are necessary. Digital skills training programs are necessary in order to improve equal global adoption of ICT in agriculture.

Keywords: market participation, mobile banking, mobile technology, rural farming

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Authors: Saad Mahmud Khan, Sarah El Hajj Chehadeh, Mehera Abdulrahman, Wael Osman, Habiba Al Safar

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Obesity is a non-communicable disease that is widely prevalent with approximately 600 million people classified as obese worldwide. Its etiology is multifactorial and involves a complex interplay between genes and the environment. Over the past few decades, obesity rates among the Emirati population have been increasing. The aim of this study was to investigate the association of candidate gene single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), namely the fat mass and obesity associated (FTO) gene SNP rs9939609 and Vitamin D Receptor (VDR) gene SNP rs1544410, with obesity in the UAE population. Methods: This is a case-control study in which 414 individuals were enrolled during their routine visit to endocrinology clinics in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates between the period of June 2012 and December 2013. Several biochemical tests and clinical assessments along with a lifestyle questionnaire for each participant were completed at the clinic. Genomic DNA was extracted from saliva samples of 201 obese, 114 overweight and 99 normal subjects. Genotyping for the variants was performed using TaqMan assay. Results: The mean Body Mass Index (BMI) ± SD for the obese, overweight, and normal subjects was 35.76 ± 4.54, 27.53 ± 1.45 and 22.69 ± 1.84 kg/m2, respectively. Increasing BMI values were associated with an increase in values for systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, HbA1c, and triglycerides. The SNP rs9939609 in the FTO gene was found to be significantly associated with the BMI (p=0.028), with the minor allele A having a clear additive effect on BMI values. No significant association was detected between BMI and rs1544410 of the VDR gene. Conclusions: Our study findings indicate that the minor allele A of the rs9939609 has a significant association with increasing BMI values. In addition, our findings support the fact that increasing BMI is associated with increasing risks of other comorbidities such as higher blood pressure, poorer glycemic control and higher triglycerides.

Keywords: body mass index, FTO gene, obesity, rs9939609, United Arab Emirates

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Authors: Dragana Bubulj

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The Former Republic of Yugoslavia was a sort of protective umbrella, a unique concept of gathering different ethnical, cultural, and religious identities, as well as diverse intersections of those. After 43-months long civil war and states disintegration in 1995, which resulted in 5 post-Yugoslav countries, Yugoslav Diaspora experienced radical changes. In Germany, one of the countries with the highest percentage of Yugoslav emigration, segregation on ethno-national grounds was empowered by the outbreak of the conflict: firstly on a socio-cultural level, and followed by changes on the level of institutional organizing. Psycho-emotional and financial involvement of Diaspora into the war is also not to be neglected. People of Serbian origin have been additionally overstrained with the designation of Serbs as war criminals in German media and the public sphere. In this way, the path from 'being a Yugoslav' toward 'becoming a Serb', outside nowadays Serbia, has been qualitatively different in comparison to potential identity shiftings experienced by other members of Former Yugoslav population. This paper is part of an ongoing PhD research and tackles biographical narratives of academics of Serbian origin in one German region. Paper addresses processes of post-Yugoslav identity negotiations in Diaspora settings, nationalistic tendentious among second generation youth, and discusses - based on NS-references founded in collected data - question of historicity of biographies.

Keywords: biography, diaspora, ethnography, former republic of Yugoslavia, identity

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Authors: Habib Ahmadi, Mohamad Ali Ameri

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In this research, the perception and understanding of police officers about the value of higher education have been investigated. A qualitative research approach and phenomenological method were used, and in data analysis, the Claizi method was used. In this research, 17 people with different degrees and occupations were selected by purposive sampling method until saturation and were investigated using a semi-structured interview tool. After the data was collected, recorded, and coded in the Atlas T software, it was formulated in the form of main categories and concepts. The general views of police officers participating in this research show the importance of university education in police jobs(76%). The analysis of participants' experiences led to the identification of seven main categories of the value and role of higher education, including; 1- Improvement of behavior and social skills, 2- Opportunities to improve and improve job performance, 3- Professionalization of police work, 4- Financial motivation, 5- People's satisfaction with police services, 6- Improvement of writing and technical skills Statement, 7- Raising the level of expectation and expectations was misplaced (negative perception). The findings of this study support the positive attitude and professionalism of the educated police. Therefore, considering the change of paradigm in society as well as the change of technologies, more complex organizational designs, and the perception of police officers, it is concluded that the police field needs officers with higher education to enable them to understand the new global environment.

Keywords: lived experience, higher education, police professionalization, perceptions of police officers

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Authors: Serges Djoyou Kamga, Gerard Emmanuel Kamdem Kamga

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Any serious constitutionalism entails a system of government characterised by the separation of powers between the executive, the legislature, and the judiciary. The latter is generally in charge of upholding the rule of law and the respect for human rights which are vital for the functioning of any democracy. Therefore, for the judiciary to play its role as a watchdog, it should be independent from other branches of government. The aim of this paper is to examine the independence of the judiciary in South Africa after 20 of democracy. Defining judicial independence as the courts’ ability ‘to decide cases on the basis of established law and the merits of the case, without interference from other political or governmental agents’, the paper examines the extent to which the South African judiciary is independent after twenty years of democracy. As part of assessing the independence of the judiciary, the paper begins by looking at the situation during apartheid, then proceeds with an examination of the post-apartheid legal order. It also examines the institutional independence of the judiciary by looking into its day to day activities which revolve around its self-governance, or administrative and financial independence. In addition, the paper assesses the judges’ individual independence by examining whether judicial appointment, security of tenure, judges’ remuneration and disciplinary actions and the removal of judges from office do not contain loopholes that can hinder judicial independence. Ultimately, the chapter argues that although the South African model of judicial independence is yet to be perfect, it is a good practice that can be emulated by other African countries.

Keywords: judical independence, South Africa, democracy, separation of powers

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Authors: Davaakhuu Vandannyam, Amarsaikhan Dashtseren, Oyungoo Badamdorj

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Background: Shift work and extended working hours are increasing in many industries and organization's in the world. Over a 24 hour period, the circadian clock regulates sleep/wake patterns, body temperature, hormone levels, digestion and many other functions. Depending on the time of day or night, the human body is programmed for periods of wakefulness and sleep, high and low body temperature, high and low digestive activity and so on. Shift work is highly prevalent in industrialized societies (>20%) but, when it includes night work, it has pronounced negative effects on sleep, subjective and physiological sleepiness, performance, accident risk, as well as on health outcomes such as cardiovascular disease and certain forms of cancer. Method: In this cross-sectional field study, 634 shift work and day work nurses from a plant were involved, with participation rate of 100% (634 nurses). The general health questionnaire (GHQ-28) and RLS, ESS, ISI, FSS were used to evaluate the level of insomnia, sleepiness, fatigue and restless legs syndrome, respectively. Results: As a result of research on some indicators of health risks caused from work shift, it was proven that prevalence of restless legs syndrome was at 5.5% and 25.9% are in risk of becoming sick, 42.3% are in fatigue, 3.5% in high stage of insomnia and 27.4% are sleepy on duty. Insomnia of nurses mainly affected from long-hour shift, dissatisfaction, workload, lose of focus and use of coffee. There is sleepiness lies in the workplace due to number of shifts, unsatisfactory performance and emergency calls between shifts. It has been determined that risk of sickness influenced by number of shifts in a month and long hour shift, dissatisfaction and use of coffee and divisions are causing restless legs syndrome. Conclusions: Among the nurses, it was found that the prevalence of insomnia is 31.6%, sleepiness 27.4%, fatigue 42.3%, restless legs syndrome 35% and stress 25.9%. These factors of shift work affecting health tend to go up as working hours increase and more common among shift work nurses.

Keywords: shiftwork, insomnia, sleepiness, restless

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Authors: Toufic Sarieddine

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As the belt and road Initiative (henceforth, BRI) enters its 9th year, Iran and China are forging stronger ties on economic and military fronts, a development which has not only caused alarm in Washington but also risks staining China’s relationships with the oil-rich Gulf monarchies. World-systems theory has been used to examine the impact of the BRI on the current world order, with scholarship split on the capacity of China to emerge as a hegemon contending with the US or even usurping it. This paper argues the emergence of a new China-centered world-system comprised of states/areas and processes participating in the BRI and overlapping with the global world-system under (shaky) US hegemony. This world-system centers around China as core and hegemon via economic domination, capable new institutions (Shanghai Cooperation Council), legal modi operandi, the common goal of infrastructure development to rally support among developing states, and other indicators of hegemony outlined in world-systems theory. In this regard, while states like Pakistan could become peripheries to China in the BRI-bound world-system via large-scale projects such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, Iran has greater capacities and influence in the Middle East, making it superior to a periphery. This paper thus argues that the increasing proximity between Iran and China sees the former becoming a semi-periphery with respect to China within the BRI-bound world-system, having economic dependence on its new core and hegemon while simultaneously wielding political and military influence on weaker states such as Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria. The indicators for peripheralization as well as the characteristics of a semi-periphery outlined in world-systems theory are used to examine the current economic, political, and militaristic dimensions of Iran and China’s growing relationship, as well as the trajectory of these dimensions as part of the BRI-bound world-system.

Keywords: belt and road initiative, China, China-Middle East relations, Iran, world-systems analysis

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Authors: Rabiaal Adawiyah Shazali, Corina Joseph

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The disclosure of Intellectual Capital (IC) information is getting more vital in today’s era of a knowledge-based economy. Companies are advised by accounting bodies to enhance IC disclosure which complements the conventional financial disclosures. There are no accounting standards for Intellectual Capital Disclosure (ICD), therefore the disclosure is entirely voluntary. Hence, this study aims to investigate the extent of ICD and to examine the relationship between corporate governance and ICD in Malaysia. This study employed content analysis of 100 annual reports by the top 100 public listed companies in Malaysia during 2012. The uniqueness of this study lies on its underpinning theory used where it applies the institutional isomorphism theory to support the effect of the attributes of corporate governance towards ICD. In order to achieve the stated objective, multiple regression analysis were employed to conduct this study. From the descriptive statistics, it was concluded that public listed companies in Malaysia have increased their awareness towards the importance of ICD. Furthermore, results from the multiple regression analysis confirmed that corporate governance affects the company’s ICD where the frequency of audit committee meetings and the board size has positively influenced the level of ICD in companies. Findings from this study would provide an incentive for companies in Malaysia to enhance the disclosure of IC. In addition, this study would assist Bursa Malaysia and other regulatory bodies to come up with a proper guideline for the disclosure of IC.

Keywords: annual report, content analysis, corporate governance, intellectual capital disclosure

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Authors: O. Benabdeljelil, A. Karioun, S. Amami, R. Rouger, M. Hamidine

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A model for preventing the risks related to climate conditions in the agricultural sector is presented. It will determine the yearly optimum premium to be paid by a producer in order to reach his required turnover. The model is based on both climatic stability and 'soft' responses of usually grown species to average climate variations at the same place and inside a safety ball which can be determined from past meteorological data. This allows the use of linear regression expression for dependence of production result in terms of driving meteorological parameters, the main ones of which are daily average sunlight, rainfall and temperature. By simple best parameter fit from the expert table drawn with professionals, optimal representation of yearly production is determined from records of previous years, and yearly payback is evaluated from minimum yearly produced turnover. The model also requires accurate pricing of commodity at N+1. Therefore, a pricing model is developed using 3 state variables, namely the spot price, the difference between the mean-term and the long-term forward price, and the long-term structure of the model. The use of historical data enables to calibrate the parameters of state variables, and allows the pricing of commodity. Application to beet sugar underlines pricer precision. Indeed, the percentage of accuracy between computed result and real world is 99,5%. Optimal premium is then deduced and gives the producer a useful bound for negotiating an offer by insurance companies to effectively protect its harvest. The application to beet production in French Oise department illustrates the reliability of present model with as low as 6% difference between predicted and real data. The model can be adapted to almost any agricultural field by changing state parameters and calibrating their associated coefficients.

Keywords: agriculture, production model, optimal price, meteorological factors, 3-factor model, parameter calibration, forward price

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Authors: Si Jack Chong, Chew Theng Yap, Wan Loong James Mok

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Introduction: Regional burn centres face the spectra of introduced multi-drug resistant organisms (MDRO) from transfer patients resident in MDRO endemic countries. MDRO can cause severe nosocomial infection, which in massive burn patients, will lead to greater morbidity and mortality and strain the institution financially. We aim to highlight 4 key measures that have effectively prevented transmission of imported MDRO. Methods: A case of Candida auris (C. auris) from a massive burn patient transferred from an MDRO endemic country is used to illustrate the measures. C. auris is a globally emerging multi-drug resistant fungal pathogen causing nosocomial transmission. Results: Infection control measures used to mitigate the risk of outbreak from transfer cases are: (1) Multidisciplinary team approach involving Infection Control and Infectious Disease specialists early to ensure appropriate antibiotics use and implementation of barrier measures, (2) aseptic procedures for dressing change with strict isolation and donning of personal protective equipment in the ward, (3) early screening of massive burn patient from MDRO endemic region, (4) hydrogen peroxide vaporization terminal cleaning for operating theatres and rooms. Conclusion: The prevalence of air travel and international transfer to regional burn centres will need effective infection control measures to reduce the risk of transmission from imported massive burn patients. In our centre, we have effectively implemented 4 measures which have reduced the risks of local contamination. We share a recent case report to illustrate successful management of a potential MDRO outbreak resulting from transfer of massive burn patient resident in an MDRO endemic area.

Keywords: burns, burn unit, cross infection, infection control

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Authors: Nayab Kanwal, Noor Us Saher

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The management and utilization of food resources is becoming a big issue due to rapid urbanization, wastage and non-sustainable use of food, especially in developing countries. Therefore, the use of seafood as alternative sources is strongly promoted worldwide. Marine pollution strongly affects marine organisms, which ultimately decreases their export quality. The monitoring of contamination in marine organisms is a good indicator of the environmental quality as well as seafood quality. Monitoring the accumulation of chemical elements within various tissues of organisms has become a useful tool to survey current or chronic levels of heavy metal exposure within an environment. In this perspective, this study was carried out to compare the previous and current levels (Year 2012 and 2014) of heavy metals (Cd, Pb, Cr, Cu and Zn) in crabs marketed in Karachi and to estimate the toxicological risk associated with their intake. The accumulation of metals in marine organisms, both essential (Cu and Zn) and toxic (Pb, Cd and Cr), natural and anthropogenic, is an actual food safety issue. Significant (p>0.05) variations in metal concentrations were found in all crab species between the two years, with most of the metals showing high accumulation in 2012. For toxicological risk assessment, EWI (Estimated weekly intake), Target Hazard quotient (THQ) and cancer risk (CR) were also assessed and high EWI, Non- cancer risk (THQ < 1) showed that there is no serious threat associated with the consumption of shellfish species on Karachi coast. The Cancer risk showed the highest risk from Cd and Pb pollution if consumed in excess. We summarize key environmental health research on health effects associated with exposure to contaminated seafood. It could be concluded that considering the Pakistan coast, these edible species may be sensitive and vulnerable to the adverse effects of environmental contaminants; more attention should be paid to the Pb and Cd metal bioaccumulation and to toxicological risks to seafood and consumers.

Keywords: cancer risk, edible crabs, heavy metals pollution, risk assessment

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