Search results for: time delayed SIR epidemic model

Authors: Tran Gia Khanh, Dao Phuong Nam, Do Trong Tan, Nguyen Van Huong, Mai Xuan Sinh

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This work presents the problem of tube-based robust model predictive controller for a class of continuous-time systems in the presence of input disturbances. The main objective is to point out the state trajectory of closed system being maintained inside a sequence of tubes. An estimation of attraction region of the closed system is pointed out based on input state stability (ISS) theory and linearized model in each time interval. The theoretical analysis and simulation results demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm for a wheeled inverted pendulum system.

Keywords: input state stability (ISS), tube-based robust MPC, continuous-time nonlinear systems, wheeled inverted pendulum

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Authors: William J. Crowther, Conor Marsh

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Object-based flow simulation allows fast computation of arbitrarily complex aerodynamic models made up of simple objects with limited flow interactions. The proposed approach is universally applicable to objects made from arbitrarily scaled ellipsoid primitives at arbitrary aerodynamic attitude and angular rate. The use of a component-based aerodynamic modelling approach increases efficiency by allowing selective inclusion of different physics models at run-time and allows extensibility through the development of new models. Insight into the numerical stability of the model under first order fixed-time step integration schemes is provided by stability analysis of the drag component. The compute cost of model components and functions is evaluated and compared against numerical benchmarks. Model static outputs are verified against theoretical expectations and dynamic behaviour using falling plate data from the literature. The model is applied to a range of case studies to demonstrate the efficacy of its application in extensibility, ease of use, and low computational cost. Dynamically complex multi-body systems can be implemented in a transparent and efficient manner, and we successfully demonstrate large scenes with hundreds of objects interacting with diverse flow fields.

Keywords: aerodynamics, real-time simulation, low-order model, flight dynamics

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Authors: Li Yu, Chenlu Jiao, Hongrun Xin, Yan Wang, Kaiyang Wang

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In order to study the impact of various factors on the housing price, we propose to build different prediction models based on deep learning to determine the existing data of the real estate in order to more accurately predict the housing price or its changing trend in the future. Considering that the factors which affect the housing price vary widely, the proposed prediction models include two categories. The first one is based on multiple characteristic factors of the real estate. We built Convolution Neural Network (CNN) prediction model and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network prediction model based on deep learning, and logical regression model was implemented to make a comparison between these three models. Another prediction model is time series model. Based on deep learning, we proposed an LSTM-1 model purely regard to time series, then implementing and comparing the LSTM model and the Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. In this paper, comprehensive study of the second-hand housing price in Beijing has been conducted from three aspects: crawling and analyzing, housing price predicting, and the result comparing. Ultimately the best model program was produced, which is of great significance to evaluation and prediction of the housing price in the real estate industry.

Keywords: deep learning, convolutional neural network, LSTM, housing prediction

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Authors: Takashi Shimizu, Tomoaki Hashimoto

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Recently, crystal growth technologies have made progress by the requirement for the high quality of crystal materials. To control the crystal growth dynamics actively by external forces is useuful for reducing composition non-uniformity. In this study, a control method based on model predictive control using thermal inputs is proposed for crystal growth dynamics of semiconductor materials. The control system of crystal growth dynamics considered here is governed by the continuity, momentum, energy, and mass transport equations. To establish the control method for such thermal fluid systems, we adopt model predictive control known as a kind of optimal feedback control in which the control performance over a finite future is optimized with a performance index that has a moving initial time and terminal time. The objective of this study is to establish a model predictive control method for crystal growth dynamics of semiconductor materials.

Keywords: model predictive control, optimal control, process control, crystal growth

Procedia PDF Downloads 351

Authors: Alexander S. Andreev, Olga A. Peregudova

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In this paper, we propose a discrete tracking control of nonholonomic mobile robots with two degrees of freedom. The electro-mechanical model of a mobile robot moving on a horizontal surface without slipping, with two rear wheels controlled by two independent DC electric, and one front roal wheel is considered. We present back-stepping design based on the Euler approximate discrete-time model of a continuous-time plant. Theoretical considerations are verified by numerical simulation. The work was supported by RFFI (15-01-08482).

Keywords: actuator dynamics, back stepping, discrete-time controller, Lyapunov function, wheeled mobile robot

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Authors: Ling Qi, Matloob Khushi, Josiah Poon

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This paper introduces a pre-trained Masked Candlestick Model (MCM) for trading time-series data. The pre-trained model is based on three core designs. First, we convert trading price data at each data point as a set of normalized elements and produce embeddings of each element. Second, we generate a masked sequence of such embedded elements as inputs for self-supervised learning. Third, we use the encoder mechanism from the transformer to train the inputs. The masked model learns the contextual relations among the sequence of embedded elements, which can aid downstream classification tasks. To evaluate the performance of the pre-trained model, we fine-tune MCM for three different downstream classification tasks to predict future price trends. The fine-tuned models achieved better accuracy rates for all three tasks than the baseline models. To better analyze the effectiveness of MCM, we test the same architecture for three currency pairs, namely EUR/GBP, AUD/USD, and EUR/JPY. The experimentation results demonstrate MCM’s effectiveness on all three currency pairs and indicate the MCM’s capability for signal extraction from trading data.

Keywords: masked language model, transformer, time series prediction, trading prediction, embedding, transfer learning, self-supervised learning

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Authors: Margaret S. Wright

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Background/Significance: During many recent public health emergencies/disasters, public health nursing data has been missing or delayed, potentially impacting the decision-making and response. Data used as evidence for decision-making in response, planning, and mitigation has been erratic and slow, decreasing the ability to respond. Methodology: Applying best practices in data management and data use in public health settings, and guided by the concepts outlined in ‘Disaster Standards of Care’ models leads to the development of recommendations for a model of best practices in data management and use in public health disasters/emergencies by public health nurses. As the ‘patient’ in public health disasters/emergencies is the community (local, regional or national), guidelines for patient documentation are incorporated in the recommendations. Findings: Using model public health nurses could better plan how to prepare for, respond to, and mitigate disasters in their communities, and better participate in decision-making in all three phases bringing public health nursing data to the discussion as part of the evidence base for decision-making.

Keywords: data management, decision making, disaster planning documentation, public health nursing

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Authors: Hossein Arzani, Masoud Jafari Shalamzari, Z. Arzani

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This paper follows FAO model of suitability analysis. Influential factors affecting extensive grazing were determined and converted into a model. Taleghan rangelands were examined for common types of grazing animals as an example. Advantages and limitations were elicited. All range ecosystems’ components affect range suitability but due to the time and money restrictions, the most important and feasible elements were investigated. From which three sub-models including water accessibility, forage production and erosion sensitivity were considered. Suitable areas in four levels of suitability were calculated using GIS. This suitability modeling approach was adopted due to its simplicity and the minimal time that is required for transforming and analyzing the data sets. Managers could be benefited from the model to devise the measures more wisely to cope with the limitations and enhance the rangelands health and condition.

Keywords: range suitability, land-use, extensive grazing, modeling, land evaluation

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Authors: Tesfaye Alamirew Dessie

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Our study focuses on developing a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) and evaluating it against a traditional PID for a pasteurization process. Utilizing system identification from the experimental data, the dynamics of the pasteurization process were calculated. Using best fit with data validation, residual, and stability analysis, the quality of several model architectures was evaluated. The validation data fit the auto-regressive with exogenous input (ARX322) model of the pasteurization process by roughly 80.37 percent. The ARX322 model structure was used to create MPC and PID control techniques. After comparing controller performance based on settling time, overshoot percentage, and stability analysis, it was found that MPC controllers outperform PID for those parameters.

Keywords: MPC, PID, ARX, pasteurization

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Authors: Hao Yan, Xiaobing Zhang

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The working mechanism of miniaturized solid rocket motors (SRMs) is not yet fully understood. It is imperative to explore its unique features. However, there are many disadvantages to using common multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) in predicting the parameters of the miniaturized SRM during its conceptual design phase. Initially, the design variables and objectives are constrained in a lumped parameter model (LPM) of this SRM, which leads to local optima in MOEAs. In addition, MOEAs require a large number of calculations due to their population strategy. Although the calculation time for simulating an LPM just once is usually less than that of a CFD simulation, the number of function evaluations (NFEs) is usually large in MOEAs, which makes the total time cost unacceptably long. Moreover, the accuracy of the LPM is relatively low compared to that of a CFD model due to its assumptions. CFD simulations or experiments are required for comparison and verification of the optimal results obtained by MOEAs with an LPM. The conceptual design phase based on MOEAs is a lengthy process, and its results are not precise enough due to the above shortcomings. An artificial neural network (ANN) based parameter prediction is proposed as a way to reduce time costs and improve prediction accuracy. In this method, an ANN is used to build a surrogate model that is trained with a 3D numerical simulation. In design, the original LPM is replaced by a surrogate model. Each case uses the same MOEAs, in which the calculation time of the two models is compared, and their optimization results are compared with 3D simulation results. Using the surrogate model for the parameter prediction process of the miniaturized SRMs results in a significant increase in computational efficiency and an improvement in prediction accuracy. Thus, the ANN-based surrogate model does provide faster and more accurate parameter prediction for an initial design scheme. Moreover, even when the MOEAs converge to local optima, the time cost of the ANN-based surrogate model is much lower than that of the simplified physical model LPM. This means that designers can save a lot of time during code debugging and parameter tuning in a complex design process. Designers can reduce repeated calculation costs and obtain accurate optimal solutions by combining an ANN-based surrogate model with MOEAs.

Keywords: artificial neural network, solid rocket motor, multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, surrogate model

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Authors: Marsudi, Noor Hidayat, Ratno Bagus Edy Wibowo

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This paper considers a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS in which condom campaign and treatment are both important for the disease management. In modelling of the spread of AIDS, the population is divided into six subpopulations, namely susceptible population, susceptible population who change their behavior due to education condom campaign, infected population, pre-AIDS population, treated population and full-blown AIDS population. We calculate the effective reproduction number using the next generation matrix method and investigate the existence and stability of the equilibrium points. A sensitivity analysis discovers parameters that have a high impact on effective reproduction number and should be targeted by intervention strategies. Numerical simulations are given to illustrate and verify our analytic results.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, condom campaign, antiretroviral treatment, effective reproduction number, stability and sensitivity analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 259

Authors: Chiranjit Das, Sanjay Jharkharia

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This study is focused on transport mode selection under lead time variability and emissions constraint. In order to reduce the carbon emissions generation due to transportation, organization has often faced a dilemmatic choice of transport mode selection since logistic cost and emissions reduction are complementary with each other. Another important aspect of transportation decision is lead-time variability which is least considered in transport mode selection problem. Thus, in this study, we provide a comprehensive mathematical based analytical model to decide transport mode selection under emissions constraint. We also extend our work through analysing the effect of lead time variability in the transport mode selection by a sensitivity analysis. In order to account lead time variability into the model, two identically normally distributed random variables are incorporated in this study including unit lead time variability and lead time demand variability. Therefore, in this study, we are addressing following questions: How the decisions of transport mode selection will be affected by lead time variability? How lead time variability will impact on total supply chain cost under carbon emissions? To accomplish these objectives, a total transportation cost function is developed including unit purchasing cost, unit transportation cost, emissions cost, holding cost during lead time, and penalty cost for stock out due to lead time variability. A set of modes is available to transport each node, in this paper, we consider only four transport modes such as air, road, rail, and water. Transportation cost, distance, emissions level for each transport mode is considered as deterministic and static in this paper. Each mode is having different emissions level depending on the distance and product characteristics. Emissions cost is indirectly affected by the lead time variability if there is any switching of transport mode from lower emissions prone transport mode to higher emissions prone transport mode in order to reduce penalty cost. We provide a numerical analysis in order to study the effectiveness of the mathematical model. We found that chances of stock out during lead time will be higher due to the higher variability of lead time and lad time demand. Numerical results show that penalty cost of air transport mode is negative that means chances of stock out zero, but, having higher holding and emissions cost. Therefore, air transport mode is only selected when there is any emergency order to reduce penalty cost, otherwise, rail and road transport is the most preferred mode of transportation. Thus, this paper is contributing to the literature by a novel approach to decide transport mode under emissions cost and lead time variability. This model can be extended by studying the effect of lead time variability under some other strategic transportation issues such as modal split option, full truck load strategy, and demand consolidation strategy etc.

Keywords: carbon emissions, inventory theoretic model, lead time variability, transport mode selection

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Authors: Mohamed Jama Madar, Oso Wilis

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E-learning is the application of information technology in the teaching and learning process. This paper presents the Funnel model as a solution for the problems of implementation of e-learning in tertiary education institutions. While existing models such as TAM, theory-based e-learning and pedagogical model have been used over time, they have generally been found to be inadequate because of their tendencies to treat materials development, instructional design, technology, delivery and governance as separate and isolated entities. Yet it is matching components that bring framework of e-learning strategic implementation. The Funnel model enhances all these into one and applies synchronously and asynchronously to e-learning implementation where the only difference is modalities. Such a model for e-learning implementation has been lacking. The proposed Funnel model avoids ad-ad-hoc approach which has made other systems unused or inefficient, and compromised educational quality. Therefore, the proposed Funnel model should help tertiary education institutions adopt and develop effective and efficient e-learning system which meets users’ requirements.

Keywords: e-learning, pedagogical, technology, strategy

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Authors: Semih Demir, Anil Celebi

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Circuit switched networks widely used until the end of the 20^th century have been transformed into packages switched networks. Time Division Multiplexing over Internet Protocol (TDMoIP) is a system that enables Time Division Multiplexing (TDM) traffic to be carried over packet switched networks (PSN). In TDMoIP systems, devices that send TDM data to the PSN and receive it from the network must operate with the same clock frequency. In this study, it was aimed to implement clock synchronization process in Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) chips using time information attached to the packages received from PSN. The designed hardware is verified using the datasets obtained for the different carrier types and comparing the results with the software model. Field tests are also performed by using the real time TDMoIP system.

Keywords: clock recovery on TDMoIP, FPGA, MATLAB reference model, clock synchronization

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Authors: A. Samer Ezeldin, Jwanda M. El Sarag

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Variation orders are of great importance in any construction project. Variation orders are defined as any change in the scope of works of a project that can be an addition omission, or even modification. This paper investigates the variation orders that occur during construction projects in Egypt. The literature review represents a comparison of causes of variation orders among Egypt, Tanzania, Nigeria, Malaysia and the United Kingdom. A classification of occurrence of variation orders due to owner related factors, consultant related factors and other factors are signified in the literature review. These classified events that lead to variation orders were introduced in a survey with 19 events to observe their frequency of occurrence, and their time and cost impacts. The survey data was obtained from 87 participants that included clients, consultants, and contractors and a database of 42 scenarios was created. A model is then developed to help assist project managers in predicting the frequency of variations and account for a budget for any additional costs and minimize any delays that can take place. Two experts with more than 25 years of experience were given the model to verify that the model was working effectively. The model was then validated on a residential compound that was completed in July 2016 to prove that the model actually produces acceptable results.

Keywords: construction, cost impact, Egypt, time impact, variation orders

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Authors: Yogesh Shukla

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Many attempts have been made to study temperature distribution problem in human tissues under normal environmental and physiological conditions at constant arterial blood temperature. But very few attempts have been made to investigate temperature distribution in human tissues under different arterial blood temperature. In view of above, a finite element model has been developed to unsteady temperature distribution in dermal region in human body. The model has been developed for one dimension unsteady state case. The variation in parameters like thermal conductivity, blood mass flow and metabolic activity with respect to position and time has been incorporated in the model. Appropriate boundary conditions have been framed. The central difference approach has been used in space variable and trapezoidal rule has been employed a long time variable. Numerical results have been obtained to study relationship among temperature and time.

Keywords: rate of metabolism, blood mass flow rate, thermal conductivity, heat generation, finite element method

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Authors: Ghorbanali Mohammadi

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New approaches to sequencing mixed-model manufacturing systems are present. These approaches have attracted considerable attention due to their potential to deal with difficult optimization problems. This paper presents Multi-Objective Simulated Annealing Algorithms (MOSAA) approaches to the Just-In-Time (JIT) sequencing problem where workload-smoothing (WL) and the number of set-ups (St) are to be optimized simultaneously. Mixed-model assembly lines are types of production lines where varieties of product models similar in product characteristics are assembled. Moreover, this type of problem is NP-hard. Two annealing methods are proposed to solve the multi-objective problem and find an efficient frontier of all design configurations. The performances of the two methods are tested on several problems from the literature. Experimentation demonstrates the relative desirable performance of the presented methodology.

Keywords: scheduling, just-in-time, mixed-model assembly line, sequencing, simulated annealing

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Authors: Anita Setianingrum, Oki S. Jaya, Zuherman Rustam

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Forecasting stock price is a challenging task due to the complex time series of the data. The complexity arises from many variables that affect the stock market. Many time series models have been proposed before, but those previous models still have some problems: 1) put the subjectivity of choosing the technical indicators, and 2) rely upon some assumptions about the variables, so it is limited to be applied to all datasets. Therefore, this paper studied a novel Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) time series model based on Support Vector Regression (SVR) for forecasting the stock market. In order to evaluate the performance of proposed models, stock market transaction data of TAIEX and HIS from January to December 2015 is collected as experimental datasets. As a result, the method has outperformed its counterparts in terms of accuracy.

Keywords: ANFIS, fuzzy time series, stock forecasting, SVR

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Authors: Peng Guo

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Objective: This study investigates the clinical characteristics of sleep disorders (SD) in patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and their relationship with cognitive impairment. Methods: According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria of AD, 460 AD patients were consecutively included in Beijing Tiantan Hospital from January 2016 to April 2022. Demographic data, including gender, age, age of onset, course of disease, years of education and body mass index, were collected. The Pittsburgh sleep quality index (PSQI) scale was used to evaluate the overall sleep status. AD patients with PSQI ≥7 was divided into AD with SD (AD-SD) group, and those with PSQI < 7 were divided into AD with no SD (AD-nSD) group. The overall cognitive function of AD patients was evaluated by the scales of Mini-mental state examination (MMSE) and Montreal cognitive assessment (MoCA), memory was evaluated by the AVLT-immediate recall, AVLT-delayed recall and CFT-delayed memory scales, the language was evaluated by BNT scale, visuospatial ability was evaluated by CFT-imitation, executive function was evaluated by Stroop-A, Stroop-B and Stroop-C scales, attention was evaluated by TMT-A, TMT-B, and SDMT scales. The correlation between cognitive function and PSQI score in AD-SD group was analyzed. Results: Among the 460 AD patients, 173 cases (37.61%) had SD. There was no significant difference in gender, age, age of onset, course of disease, years of education and body mass index between AD-SD and AD-nSD groups (P>0.05). The factors with significant difference in PSQI scale between AD-SD and AD-nSD groups include sleep quality, sleep latency, sleep duration, sleep efficiency, sleep disturbance, use of sleeping medication and daytime dysfunction (P<0.05). Compared with AD-nSD group, the total scores of MMSE, MoCA, AVLT-immediate recall and CFT-imitation scales in AD-SD group were significantly lower（P＜0.01，P＜0.01，P＜0.01，P＜0.05）. In AD-SD group, subjective sleep quality was significantly and negatively correlated with the scores of MMSE, MoCA, AVLT-immediate recall and CFT-imitation scales (r=-0.277，P=0.000; r=-0.216，P=0.004; r=-0.253，P=0.001; r=-0.239, P=0.004), daytime dysfunction was significantly and negatively correlated with the score of AVLT-immediate recall scale (r=-0.160，P=0.043). Conclusion The incidence of AD-SD is 37.61%. AD-SD patients have worse subjective sleep quality, longer time to fall asleep, shorter sleep time, lower sleep efficiency, severer nighttime SD, more use of sleep medicine, and severer daytime dysfunction. The overall cognitive function, immediate recall and visuospatial ability of AD-SD patients are significantly impaired and are closely correlated with the decline of subjective sleep quality. The impairment of immediate recall is highly correlated with daytime dysfunction in AD-SD patients.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, sleep disorders, cognitive impairment, correlation

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Authors: Seung-Seok Bak, Chang-Mu Jung

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An enough amount supply of industrial complexes is an important national policy in South Korea, which is highly dependent on foreign trade. A development process of the industrial complex can distinguish between the planning stage and the construction stage. The planning stage consists of the process of consulting with many stakeholders on the contents of the development of industrial complex, feasibility study, compliance with the Regional policies, and so on. The industrial complex planning stage, including licensing procedure, usually takes about three years in South Korea. The government determined that the appropriate supply of industrial complexes have been delayed, due to the long licensing period and drafted a law to shorten the license period in 2008. The law was expected to shorten the period of licensing, which was about three years, to six months. This paper attempts to show that the shortening of the licensing period does not positively affect the appropriate supply of industrial complexes. To do this, we used Interrupted Time Series Designs. As a result, it was found that the supply of industrial complexes was influenced more by other factors such as actual industrial complex demand of private sector and macro-level economic variables. In addition, the specific provisions of the law conflict with local policy and cause some problems such as damage to nature and agricultural land, traffic congestion.

Keywords: development of industrial complexes, industrial complexes, interrupted time series designs, simplification of licensing procedures for industrial complexes, time series regression

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Authors: Fahd Sabry Esmail, M. Badr Senousy, Mohamed Ragaie

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In recent years, there has been an explosion in the rate of using technology that help discovering the diseases. For example, DNA microarrays allow us for the first time to obtain a "global" view of the cell. It has great potential to provide accurate medical diagnosis, to help in finding the right treatment and cure for many diseases. Various classification algorithms can be applied on such micro-array datasets to devise methods that can predict the occurrence of Leukemia disease. In this study, we compared the classification accuracy and response time among eleven decision tree methods and six rule classifier methods using five performance criteria. The experiment results show that the performance of Random Tree is producing better result. Also it takes lowest time to build model in tree classifier. The classification rules algorithms such as nearest- neighbor-like algorithm (NNge) is the best algorithm due to the high accuracy and it takes lowest time to build model in classification.

Keywords: data mining, classification techniques, decision tree, classification rule, leukemia diseases, microarray data

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Authors: Nikki Berrange, Gizelle Willows

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Business rescue has become increasingly popular since its inclusion in the Companies Act of South Africa in May 2011. The Alternate Exchange (AltX) of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange has experienced a marked increase in the number of companies entering business rescue. This study sampled twenty companies listed on the AltX to determine whether Altman’s Z-score model for emerging markets (ZEM) or Taffler’s Z-score model is a more accurate model in predicting financial distress for small to medium size companies in South Africa. The study was performed over three different time horizons; one, two and three years prior to the event of financial distress, in order to determine how many companies each model predicted would be unlikely to succeed as well as the predictive ability and accuracy of the respective models. The study found that Taffler’s Z-score model had a greater ability at predicting financial distress from all three-time horizons.

Keywords: Altman’s ZEM-score, Altman’s Z-score, AltX, business rescue, Taffler’s Z-score

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Authors: Mst. Tuhin Akter, Sharun Akter Khushbu, S. M. Shaqib

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A real-time system architecture is highly effective for monitoring and detecting various damaged products or fruits that may deteriorate over time or become infected with diseases. Deep learning models have proven to be effective in building such architectures. However, building a deep learning model from scratch is a time-consuming and costly process. A more efficient solution is to utilize deep neural network (DNN) based transfer learning models in the real-time monitoring architecture. This study focuses on using a novel strawberry dataset to develop effective transfer learning models for the proposed real-time monitoring system architecture, specifically for evaluating and detecting strawberry freshness. Several state-of-the-art transfer learning models were employed, and the best performing model was found to be Xception, demonstrating higher performance across evaluation metrics such as accuracy, recall, precision, and F1-score.

Keywords: strawberry freshness evaluation, deep neural network, transfer learning, image augmentation

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Authors: Faramarz Khosravi, Gokhan Izbirak

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A weighted statistical stochastic based Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model for modeling the potential barriers and enablers of sustainability for measuring and assessing the sustainability level is proposed. For context-dependent potential barriers and enablers, the proposed model takes the basis of the properties of the variables describing the sustainability functions and was developed into a realistic analytical model for the sustainable behavior of an organization. This thus serves as a means for measuring the sustainability of the organization. The main focus of this paper was the application of the AHP tool in a statistically-based model for measuring sustainability. Hence a strong weighted stochastic AHP based procedure was achieved. A case study scenario of a widely reported major Canadian electric utility was adopted to demonstrate the applicability of the developed model and comparatively examined its results with those of an equal-weighted model method. Variations in the sustainability of a company, as fluctuations, were figured out during the time. In the results obtained, sustainability index for successive years changed form 73.12%, 79.02%, 74.31%, 76.65%, 80.49%, 79.81%, 79.83% to more exact values 73.32%, 77.72%, 76.76%, 79.41%, 81.93%, 79.72%, and 80,45% according to priorities of factors that have found by expert views, respectively. By obtaining relatively necessary informative measurement indicators, the model can practically and effectively evaluate the sustainability extent of any organization and also to determine fluctuations in the organization over time.

Keywords: AHP, sustainability fluctuation, environmental indicators, performance measurement

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Authors: Tiago Sigal Linhares, Ana Amélia Nascimento da Silva Bones, Juliana Miola, McArthur Alexander Barrow, Airton Tetelbom Stein

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Introduction: As a result of increased globalization and changing migration trends, it is expected that a significant portion of People Living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) will change their place of residence over time. In order to provide better health care, monitor the HIV epidemic and plan urban public health care and policies, there is a growing need to formulate a strategy for monitoring PLWHA care, location and migration patterns. The Porto Alegre District is characterized by a high prevalence of PLWHA and is considered one of the epicenters of HIV epidemic in Latin America. Objectives: The aim of this study is to create a digital and easily editable map in order to create a visual representation of the location of PLWHA and to monitor their migration within the city and the country in an effort to promote longitudinal care. Methods: This Experience Report used Google Maps Map Creator to generate an active digital map showing the location and changes in residence of 165 PLWHA who received care at two Primary Health Care (PHC) clinics, which attended an estimated population of five thousand patients, in downtown Porto Alegre over the last four years. Their current addresses were discovered in the unified Brazilian health care system digital records (e-SUS) and updated on the map. Results: A digital map with PLWHA current residence location was created. It was possible to demonstrate visually areas with a large concentration of PLWHA and the migration of the population within the city as wells as other cities, regions and states. Conclusions: An easily reproducible and free map could aid in PLWHA monitoring, urban public health planning, target interventions and situational diagnosis. Moreover, a visual representation of PLWHA location and migration could help bring more attention and investments to areas with geographic inequities or higher prevalence of PLWHA. It also enables notification of local PHC units of monitored patients inside their area, which are in clinical risk or with treatment abandonment through active case findings, improving the care of PLWHA.

Keywords: health care, medical public health, theoretical and conceptual innovations, urban public health

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Authors: Moon Jung Kim, Guil Rhim

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The clinical sensitivity of the “VEUPLEXTM TBI assay”, a clinical trial medical device, in mild traumatic brain injury was 28.6% (95% CI, 19.7%-37.5%), and the clinical specificity was 94.0% (95% CI, 89.3%). -98.7%). In addition, when the results analyzed by marker were put together, the sensitivity was higher when interpreting the two tests together than the two tests, UCHL1 and GFAP alone. Additionally, when sensitivity and specificity were analyzed based on CT results for the mild traumatic brain injury patient group, the clinical sensitivity for 2 CT-positive cases was 50.0% (95% CI: 1.3%-98.7%), and 19 CT-negative cases. The clinical specificity for cases was 68.4% (95% CI: 43.5% - 87.4%). Since the low clinical sensitivity for the two CT-positive cases was not statistically significant due to the small number of samples analyzed, it was judged necessary to secure and analyze more samples in the future. Regarding the clinical specificity analysis results for 19 CT-negative cases, there were a large number of patients who were actually clinically diagnosed with mild traumatic brain injury but actually received a CT-negative result, and about 31.6% of them showed abnormal results on VEUPLEXTM TBI assay. Although traumatic brain injury could not be detected in 31.6% of the CT scans, the possibility of actually suffering a mild brain injury could not be ruled out, so it was judged that this could be confirmed through follow-up observation of the patient. In addition, among patients with mild traumatic brain injury, CT examinations were not performed in many cases because the symptoms were very mild, but among these patients, about 25% or more showed abnormal results in the VEUPLEXTM TBI assay. In fact, no damage is observed with the naked eye immediately after traumatic brain injury, and traumatic brain injury is not observed even on CT. But in some cases, brain hemorrhage may occur (delayed cerebral hemorrhage) after a certain period of time, so the patients who did show abnormal results on VEUPLEXTM TBI assay should be followed up for the delayed cerebral hemorrhage. In conclusion, it was judged that it was difficult to judge mild traumatic brain injury with the VEUPLEXTM TBI assay only through clinical findings without CT results, that is, based on the GCS value. Even in the case of CT, it does not detect all mild traumatic brain injury, so it is difficult to necessarily judge that there is no traumatic brain injury, even if there is no evidence of traumatic brain injury in CT. And in the long term, more patients should be included to evaluate the usefulness of the VEUPLEXTM TBI assay in the detection of microscopic traumatic brain injuries without using CT.

Keywords: brain injury, traumatic brain injury, GFAP, UCHL1

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Authors: Abdelouaheb Rouabhi

Abstract:

In order to study the plastic resource of structures, the elastic-plastic single degree of freedom model described by Prandtl diagram is widely used. The generalization of this model to tow degree of freedom beyond the scope of a simple rigid-plastic system allows investigating the plastic resource of structures under complex disproportionate by individual components of deformation (earthquake). This macro-model greatly increases the accuracy of the calculations carried out. At the same time, the implementation of the proposed macro-model calculations easier than the detailed dynamic elastic-plastic calculations existing software systems such as ANSYS.

Keywords: elastic-plastic, single degree of freedom model, rigid-plastic system, plastic resource, complex plastic deformation, macro-model

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Authors: Enrique Barbieri

Abstract:

The basic disease-spread model described by three states denoting the susceptible (S), infectious (I), and removed (recovered and deceased) (R) sub-groups of the total population N, or SIR model, has been considered. Heuristic mitigating action profiles of the pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical types may be developed in a control design setting for the purpose of reducing the transmission rate or improving the recovery rate parameters in the model. Even though the transmission and recovery rates are not control inputs in the traditional sense, a linear observer and feedback controller can be tuned to generate an asymptotic estimate of the transmission rate for a linearized, discrete-time version of the SIR model. Then, a set of mitigating actions is suggested to steer the basic reproduction number toward unity, in which case the disease does not spread, and the infected population state does not suffer from multiple waves. The special case of piecewise constant transmission rate is described and applied to a seventh-order SEIQRDP model, which segments the population into four additional states. The offline simulations in discrete time may be used to produce heuristic policies implemented by public health and government organizations.

Keywords: control of SIR, observer, SEIQRDP, disease spread

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Henrik Prinzhorn, Peter Nyhuis, Johannes Wagner, Peter Burggräf, Torben Schmitz, Christina Reuter

Abstract:

Assembling large-scale products, such as airplanes, locomotives, or wind turbines, involves frequent process interruptions induced by e.g. delayed material deliveries or missing availability of resources. This leads to a negative impact on the logistical performance of a producer of xxl-products. In industrial practice, in case of interruptions, the identification, evaluation and eventually the selection of an alternative order of assembly activities (‘assembly alternative’) leads to an enormous challenge, especially if an optimized logistical decision should be reached. Therefore, in this paper, an innovative, optimization model for the identification of assembly alternatives that addresses the given problem is presented. It describes make-to-order, large-scale product assembly processes as a resource constrained project scheduling (RCPS) problem which follows given restrictions in practice. For the evaluation of the assembly alternative, a cost-based definition of the logistical objectives (delivery reliability, inventory, make-span and workload) is presented.

Keywords: assembly scheduling, large-scale products, make-to-order, optimization, rescheduling

Procedia PDF Downloads 450

Authors: Mohamed M. Ragab, Neveen A. Abdel Raoof, Reham H. Diab

Abstract:

Background: Delayed onset muscle soreness (DOMS) is the most common symptom when ordinary individuals and athletes are exposed to unaccustomed physical activity, especially eccentric contraction which impairs athletic performance, ordinary people work ability and physical functioning. A multitude of methods have been investigated to reduce DOMS. One of the valuable method to control DOMS is repeated bout effect (RBE) as a prophylactic method. Purpose: To compare the repeated bout effect of submaximal eccentric contraction versus maximal isometric contraction on induced DOMS. Methods: Sixty normal male volunteers were assigned randomly into three groups of equal number: Group (A) “first study group”: 20 subjects received submaximal eccentric contraction on non-dominant elbow flexors as prophylactic exercise. Group (B) “second study group”: 20 subjects received maximal isometric contraction on non-dominant elbow flexors as prophylactic exercise. Group (C) “control group”: 20 subjects did not receive any prophylactic exercise. Maximal isometric contraction peak torque of elbow flexors and patient related elbow evaluation (PREE) scale were measured for each subject 3 times before, immediately after and 48 hours after induction of DOMS. Results: Post-hoc test for maximal isometric peak torque and PREE scale immediately and 48 hours after induction of DOMS revealed that group (A) and group (B) resulted in significant decrease in maximal isometric strength loss and elbow pain and disability rather than control group (C), but submaximal eccentric group (A) was more effective than maximal isometric group (B) as it showed more rapid recovery of functional strength and less degrees of elbow pain and disability. Conclusion: Both submaximal eccentric contraction and maximal isometric contraction were effective in prevention of DOMS but submaximal eccentric contraction had the greatest protective effect.

Keywords: delayed onset muscle soreness, maximal isometric peak torque, patient related elbow evaluation scale, repeated bout effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 357