Search results for: environmental multimedia model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 21913

Search results for: environmental multimedia model

21643 An Optimization Model for Waste Management in Demolition Works

Authors: Eva Queheille, Franck Taillandier, Nadia Saiyouri

Abstract:

Waste management has become a major issue in demolition works, because of its environmental impact (energy consumption, resource consumption, pollution…). However, improving waste management requires to take also into account the overall demolition process and to consider demolition main objectives (e.g. cost, delay). Establishing a strategy with these conflicting objectives (economic and environment) remains complex. In order to provide a decision-support for demolition companies, a multi-objective optimization model was developed. In this model, a demolition strategy is computed from a set of 80 decision variables (worker team composition, machines, treatment for each type of waste, choice of treatment platform…), which impacts the demolition objectives. The model has experimented on a real-case study (demolition of several buildings in France). To process the optimization, different optimization algorithms (NSGA2, MOPSO, DBEA…) were tested. Results allow the engineer in charge of this case, to build a sustainable demolition strategy without affecting cost or delay.

Keywords: deconstruction, life cycle assessment, multi-objective optimization, waste management

Procedia PDF Downloads 135
21642 Validation Study of Radial Aircraft Engine Model

Authors: Lukasz Grabowski, Tytus Tulwin, Michal Geca, P. Karpinski

Abstract:

This paper presents the radial aircraft engine model which has been created in AVL Boost software. This model is a one-dimensional physical model of the engine, which enables us to investigate the impact of an ignition system design on engine performance (power, torque, fuel consumption). In addition, this model allows research under variable environmental conditions to reflect varied flight conditions (altitude, humidity, cruising speed). Before the simulation research the identifying parameters and validating of model were studied. In order to verify the feasibility to take off power of gasoline radial aircraft engine model, some validation study was carried out. The first stage of the identification was completed with reference to the technical documentation provided by manufacturer of engine and the experiments on the test stand of the real engine. The second stage involved a comparison of simulation results with the results of the engine stand tests performed on a WSK ’PZL-Kalisz’. The engine was loaded by a propeller in a special test bench. Identifying the model parameters referred to a comparison of the test results to the simulation in terms of: pressure behind the throttles, pressure in the inlet pipe, and time course for pressure in the first inlet pipe, power, and specific fuel consumption. Accordingly, the required coefficients and error of simulation calculation relative to the real-object experiments were determined. Obtained the time course for pressure and its value is compatible with the experimental results. Additionally the engine power and specific fuel consumption tends to be significantly compatible with the bench tests. The mapping error does not exceed 1.5%, which verifies positively the model of combustion and allows us to predict engine performance if the process of combustion will be modified. The next conducted tests verified completely model. The maximum mapping error for the pressure behind the throttles and the inlet pipe pressure is 4 %, which proves the model of the inlet duct in the engine with the charging compressor to be correct.

Keywords: 1D-model, aircraft engine, performance, validation

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21641 The Improvement of Environmental Protection through Motor Vehicle Noise Abatement

Authors: Z. Jovanovic, Z. Masonicic, S. Dragutinovic, Z. Sakota

Abstract:

In this paper, a methodology for noise reduction of motor vehicles in use is presented. The methodology relies on synergic model of noise generation as a function of time. The arbitrary number of motor vehicle noise sources act in concert yielding the generation of the overall noise level of motor vehicle thereafter. The number of noise sources participating in the overall noise level of motor vehicle is subjected to the constraint of the calculation of the acoustic potential of each noise source under consideration. It is the prerequisite condition for the calculation of the acoustic potential of the whole vehicle. The recast form of pertinent set of equations describing the synergic model is laid down and solved by dint of Gauss method. The bunch of results emerged and some of them i.e. those ensuing from model application to MDD FAP Priboj motor vehicle in use are particularly elucidated.

Keywords: noise abatement, MV noise sources, noise source identification, muffler

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21640 Data Model to Predict Customize Skin Care Product Using Biosensor

Authors: Ashi Gautam, Isha Shukla, Akhil Seghal

Abstract:

Biosensors are analytical devices that use a biological sensing element to detect and measure a specific chemical substance or biomolecule in a sample. These devices are widely used in various fields, including medical diagnostics, environmental monitoring, and food analysis, due to their high specificity, sensitivity, and selectivity. In this research paper, a machine learning model is proposed for predicting the suitability of skin care products based on biosensor readings. The proposed model takes in features extracted from biosensor readings, such as biomarker concentration, skin hydration level, inflammation presence, sensitivity, and free radicals, and outputs the most appropriate skin care product for an individual. This model is trained on a dataset of biosensor readings and corresponding skin care product information. The model's performance is evaluated using several metrics, including accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score. The aim of this research is to develop a personalised skin care product recommendation system using biosensor data. By leveraging the power of machine learning, the proposed model can accurately predict the most suitable skin care product for an individual based on their biosensor readings. This is particularly useful in the skin care industry, where personalised recommendations can lead to better outcomes for consumers. The developed model is based on supervised learning, which means that it is trained on a labeled dataset of biosensor readings and corresponding skin care product information. The model uses these labeled data to learn patterns and relationships between the biosensor readings and skin care products. Once trained, the model can predict the most suitable skin care product for an individual based on their biosensor readings. The results of this study show that the proposed machine learning model can accurately predict the most appropriate skin care product for an individual based on their biosensor readings. The evaluation metrics used in this study demonstrate the effectiveness of the model in predicting skin care products. This model has significant potential for practical use in the skin care industry for personalised skin care product recommendations. The proposed machine learning model for predicting the suitability of skin care products based on biosensor readings is a promising development in the skin care industry. The model's ability to accurately predict the most appropriate skin care product for an individual based on their biosensor readings can lead to better outcomes for consumers. Further research can be done to improve the model's accuracy and effectiveness.

Keywords: biosensors, data model, machine learning, skin care

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21639 The Role of Environmental Citizenship in Household Waste Management

Authors: Lizette Grobler

Abstract:

Although the notion of environmental citizenship has become an established concept linked to scholarship on sustainability internationally, it is not the case in South Africa. This literature review aims to investigate whether the concept is a viable construct in the South African household waste management context. This literature review firstly examines different approaches to environmental citizenship and the normative notions of environmental values, attitudes, and behaviour advocated by proponents of each tradition. Secondly, this paper deals with the application of environmental citizenship as a measure to address household waste. Thirdly, this paper interrogates the utilization of the concept in South African scholarly literature on waste management. The paper argues for the introduction of the concept as a potential approach to behavioural change in the household waste management context.

Keywords: environmental citizenship, environmental responsibility, household waste, ownership of waste

Procedia PDF Downloads 134
21638 Video Summarization: Techniques and Applications

Authors: Zaynab El Khattabi, Youness Tabii, Abdelhamid Benkaddour

Abstract:

Nowadays, huge amount of multimedia repositories make the browsing, retrieval and delivery of video contents very slow and even difficult tasks. Video summarization has been proposed to improve faster browsing of large video collections and more efficient content indexing and access. In this paper, we focus on approaches to video summarization. The video summaries can be generated in many different forms. However, two fundamentals ways to generate summaries are static and dynamic. We present different techniques for each mode in the literature and describe some features used for generating video summaries. We conclude with perspective for further research.

Keywords: video summarization, static summarization, video skimming, semantic features

Procedia PDF Downloads 378
21637 Modeling Breathable Particulate Matter Concentrations over Mexico City Retrieved from Landsat 8 Satellite Imagery

Authors: Rodrigo T. Sepulveda-Hirose, Ana B. Carrera-Aguilar, Magnolia G. Martinez-Rivera, Pablo de J. Angeles-Salto, Carlos Herrera-Ventosa

Abstract:

In order to diminish health risks, it is of major importance to monitor air quality. However, this process is accompanied by the high costs of physical and human resources. In this context, this research is carried out with the main objective of developing a predictive model for concentrations of inhalable particles (PM10-2.5) using remote sensing. To develop the model, satellite images, mainly from Landsat 8, of the Mexico City’s Metropolitan Area were used. Using historical PM10 and PM2.5 measurements of the RAMA (Automatic Environmental Monitoring Network of Mexico City) and through the processing of the available satellite images, a preliminary model was generated in which it was possible to observe critical opportunity areas that will allow the generation of a robust model. Through the preliminary model applied to the scenes of Mexico City, three areas were identified that cause great interest due to the presumed high concentration of PM; the zones are those that present high plant density, bodies of water and soil without constructions or vegetation. To date, work continues on this line to improve the preliminary model that has been proposed. In addition, a brief analysis was made of six models, presented in articles developed in different parts of the world, this in order to visualize the optimal bands for the generation of a suitable model for Mexico City. It was found that infrared bands have helped to model in other cities, but the effectiveness that these bands could provide for the geographic and climatic conditions of Mexico City is still being evaluated.

Keywords: air quality, modeling pollution, particulate matter, remote sensing

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21636 The Effect of Environmental Consciousness on Firm Performance

Authors: Hossein Emari, Hossein Vazifehdoust, Hashem Nikoo Maram

Abstract:

This study aims to develop an original framework of Environmental Consciousness (EC) to explore the positive effect of environmental consciousness on financial performance through the partial mediator - green intellectual capital. A questionnaire survey on the environmental consciousness, intellectual capital, and financial performance of Iran’s manufacturing firms was conducted, and 324 samples were analyzed. This study utilizes structural equation modeling to explore the direct and indirect influences of EC on financial performance. Research results reveal that environmental consciousness had an indirect impact on financial performance through investment in green intellectual capital. It was thus known that green intellectual capital is a mediator of the relationship between environmental consciousness and financial performance. This paper may serve as a reference for firms mapping out future environmental policies and provide an input of various perspectives and arguments into the discipline of green management.

Keywords: environmental consciousness, social responsibility, green intellectual capital, financial performance

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21635 Simulating the Dynamics of E-waste Production from Mobile Phone: Model Development and Case Study of Rwanda

Authors: Rutebuka Evariste, Zhang Lixiao

Abstract:

Mobile phone sales and stocks showed an exponential growth in the past years globally and the number of mobile phones produced each year was surpassing one billion in 2007, this soaring growth of related e-waste deserves sufficient attentions paid to it regionally and globally as long as 40% of its total weight is made from metallic which 12 elements are identified to be highly hazardous and 12 are less harmful. Different research and methods have been used to estimate the obsolete mobile phones but none has developed a dynamic model and handle the discrepancy resulting from improper approach and error in the input data. The study aim was to develop a comprehensive dynamic system model for simulating the dynamism of e-waste production from mobile phone regardless the country or region and prevail over the previous errors. The logistic model method combined with STELLA program has been used to carry out this study. Then the simulation for Rwanda has been conducted and compared with others countries’ results as model testing and validation. Rwanda is about 1.5 million obsoletes mobile phone with 125 tons of waste in 2014 with e-waste production peak in 2017. It is expected to be 4.17 million obsoletes with 351.97 tons by 2020 along with environmental impact intensity of 21times to 2005. Thus, it is concluded through the model testing and validation that the present dynamic model is competent and able deal with mobile phone e-waste production the fact that it has responded to the previous studies questions from Czech Republic, Iran, and China.

Keywords: carrying capacity, dematerialization, logistic model, mobile phone, obsolescence, similarity, Stella, system dynamics

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21634 Estimating PM2.5 Concentrations Based on Landsat 8 Imagery and Historical Field Data over the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City

Authors: Rodrigo T. Sepulveda-Hirose, Ana B. Carrera-Aguilar, Francisco Andree Ramirez-Casas, Alondra Orozco-Gomez, Miguel Angel Sanchez-Caro, Carlos Herrera-Ventosa

Abstract:

High concentrations of particulate matter in the atmosphere pose a threat to human health, especially over areas with high concentrations of population; however, field air pollution monitoring is expensive and time-consuming. In order to achieve reduced costs and global coverage of the whole urban area, remote sensing can be used. This study evaluates PM2.5 concentrations, over the Mexico City´s metropolitan area, are estimated using atmospheric reflectance from LANDSAT 8, satellite imagery and historical PM2.5 measurements of the Automatic Environmental Monitoring Network of Mexico City (RAMA). Through the processing of the available satellite images, a preliminary model was generated to evaluate the optimal bands for the generation of the final model for Mexico City. Work on the final model continues with the results of the preliminary model. It was found that infrared bands have helped to model in other cities, but the effectiveness that these bands could provide for the geographic and climatic conditions of Mexico City is still being evaluated.

Keywords: air pollution modeling, Landsat 8, PM2.5, remote sensing

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21633 Numerical Modeling of the Depth-Averaged Flow over a Hill

Authors: Anna Avramenko, Heikki Haario

Abstract:

This paper reports the development and application of a 2D depth-averaged model. The main goal of this contribution is to apply the depth averaged equations to a wind park model in which the treatment of the geometry, introduced on the mathematical model by the mass and momentum source terms. The depth-averaged model will be used in future to find the optimal position of wind turbines in the wind park. K-E and 2D LES turbulence models were consider in this article. 2D CFD simulations for one hill was done to check the depth-averaged model in practise.

Keywords: depth-averaged equations, numerical modeling, CFD, wind park model

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21632 Sustainable Maintenance Model for Infrastructure in Egypt

Authors: S. Hasan, I. Beshara

Abstract:

Infrastructure maintenance is a great challenge facing sustainable development of infrastructure assets due to the high cost of passive implementation of a sustainable maintenance plan. An assessment model of sustainable maintenance for highway infrastructure projects in Egypt is developed in this paper. It helps in improving the implementation of sustainable maintenance criteria. Thus, this paper has applied the analytical hierarchy processes (AHP) to rank and explore the weight of 26 assessment indicators using three hierarchy levels containing the main sustainable categories and subcategories with related indicators. Overall combined weight of each indicator for sustainable maintenance evaluation has been calculated to sum up to a sustainable maintenance performance index (SMI). The results show that the factor "Preventive maintenance cost" has the highest relative contribution factor among others (13.5%), while two factors of environmental performance have the least weights (0.7%). The developed model aims to provide decision makers with information about current maintenance performance and support them in the decision-making process regarding future directions of maintenance activities. It can be used as an assessment performance tool during the operation and maintenance stage. The developed indicators can be considered during designing the maintenance plan. Practices for successful implementation of the model are also presented.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, assessment performance Model, KPIs for sustainable maintenance, sustainable maintenance index

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21631 UBCSAND Model Calibration for Generic Liquefaction Triggering Curves

Authors: Jui-Ching Chou

Abstract:

Numerical simulation is a popular method used to evaluate the effects of soil liquefaction on a structure or the effectiveness of a mitigation plan. Many constitutive models (UBCSAND model, PM4 model, SANISAND model, etc.) were presented to model the liquefaction phenomenon. In general, inputs of a constitutive model need to be calibrated against the soil cyclic resistance before being applied to the numerical simulation model. Then, simulation results can be compared with results from simplified liquefaction potential assessing methods. In this article, inputs of the UBCSAND model, a simple elastic-plastic stress-strain model, are calibrated against several popular generic liquefaction triggering curves of simplified liquefaction potential assessing methods via FLAC program. Calibrated inputs can provide engineers to perform a preliminary evaluation of an existing structure or a new design project.

Keywords: calibration, liquefaction, numerical simulation, UBCSAND Model

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21630 An Alteration of the Boltzmann Superposition Principle to Account for Environmental Degradation in Fiber Reinforced Plastics

Authors: Etienne K. Ngoy

Abstract:

This analysis suggests that the comprehensive degradation caused by any environmental factor on fiber reinforced plastics under mechanical stress can be measured as a change in viscoelastic properties of the material. The change in viscoelastic characteristics is experimentally determined as a time-dependent function expressing the amplification of the stress relaxation. The variation of this experimental function provides a measure of the environmental degradation rate. Where real service environment conditions can be reliably simulated in the laboratory, it is possible to generate master curves that include environmental degradation effect and hence predict the durability of the fiber reinforced plastics under environmental degradation.

Keywords: environmental effects, fiber reinforced plastics durability, prediction, stress effect

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21629 Environmental Sustainability Practice in Resort Hotels: Case of Resort Hotels in Bishoftu, Ethiopia

Authors: Mohammed Aman Kassim

Abstract:

This study aims to investigate attitudes of resort hotel managers toward environmental sustainability practice in Bishoftu Town, Ethiopia. Six resorts were selected out of twelve by using systematic sampling method and totally fifty-six managers were taken for the survey. The findings revealed that more than 99% of hotel managers possess positive attitudes but low level of performance. Owners’ attitudes and personal beliefs, government regulation and incentives for good achievement were the most important factors that motivate or influence the adoptions of environmental sustainability practices. Hotel managers’ environmental attitudes more significantly influenced by their social demographics, such as level of education and age. Therefore, in order to increase hotels commitment to become more sustainable, some measurement should be implemented, such as vigorous support of the government, cooperation with hotel associations, continuous behaviors of hotel environmental protection, and local community participation in environmental practice.

Keywords: environmental attitude, environmental sustainability, hotel managers, resorts

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21628 Development of Model for Effective Sub- District Municipality Wastewater Management

Authors: Vitool Suksankavanich

Abstract:

This preliminary research aimed to explore the development of wastewater management of Bang Pu Sub- District Municipality, Samutprakan Province, in order to establish appropriate model for effective wastewater management that fit to the context of the area. The research posed three questions: [i] to what extent the promotion of social responsibility awareness built among the local community resulted in effectiveness of the local wastewater management; [ii] did the waste disposal management of Bang Pu Industrial Estate contribute to the overall environmental quality of Bang Pu Sub- District Municipality; and [iii] did the relationship between the community and the industrial factories have any effect on the wastewater management. The in- depth interview revealed main obstacles occurred in the process of wastewater management in the area. The fieldwork also contributed to a product of an appropriate model of effective wastewater management.

Keywords: legitimacy theory, stakeholder theory, social responsibility, wastewater management

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21627 Development of Geo-computational Model for Analysis of Lassa Fever Dynamics and Lassa Fever Outbreak Prediction

Authors: Adekunle Taiwo Adenike, I. K. Ogundoyin

Abstract:

Lassa fever is a neglected tropical virus that has become a significant public health issue in Nigeria, with the country having the greatest burden in Africa. This paper presents a Geo-Computational Model for Analysis and Prediction of Lassa Fever Dynamics and Outbreaks in Nigeria. The model investigates the dynamics of the virus with respect to environmental factors and human populations. It confirms the role of the rodent host in virus transmission and identifies how climate and human population are affected. The proposed methodology is carried out on a Linux operating system using the OSGeoLive virtual machine for geographical computing, which serves as a base for spatial ecology computing. The model design uses Unified Modeling Language (UML), and the performance evaluation uses machine learning algorithms such as random forest, fuzzy logic, and neural networks. The study aims to contribute to the control of Lassa fever, which is achievable through the combined efforts of public health professionals and geocomputational and machine learning tools. The research findings will potentially be more readily accepted and utilized by decision-makers for the attainment of Lassa fever elimination.

Keywords: geo-computational model, lassa fever dynamics, lassa fever, outbreak prediction, nigeria

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21626 Stock Market Prediction by Regression Model with Social Moods

Authors: Masahiro Ohmura, Koh Kakusho, Takeshi Okadome

Abstract:

This paper presents a regression model with autocorrelated errors in which the inputs are social moods obtained by analyzing the adjectives in Twitter posts using a document topic model. The regression model predicts Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) more precisely than autoregressive moving-average models.

Keywords: stock market prediction, social moods, regression model, DJIA

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21625 Structural Equation Modeling Semiparametric Truncated Spline Using Simulation Data

Authors: Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes

Abstract:

SEM analysis is a complex multivariate analysis because it involves a number of exogenous and endogenous variables that are interconnected to form a model. The measurement model is divided into two, namely, the reflective model (reflecting) and the formative model (forming). Before carrying out further tests on SEM, there are assumptions that must be met, namely the linearity assumption, to determine the form of the relationship. There are three modeling approaches to path analysis, including parametric, nonparametric and semiparametric approaches. The aim of this research is to develop semiparametric SEM and obtain the best model. The data used in the research is secondary data as the basis for the process of obtaining simulation data. Simulation data was generated with various sample sizes of 100, 300, and 500. In the semiparametric SEM analysis, the form of the relationship studied was determined, namely linear and quadratic and determined one and two knot points with various levels of error variance (EV=0.5; 1; 5). There are three levels of closeness of relationship for the analysis process in the measurement model consisting of low (0.1-0.3), medium (0.4-0.6) and high (0.7-0.9) levels of closeness. The best model lies in the form of the relationship X1Y1 linear, and. In the measurement model, a characteristic of the reflective model is obtained, namely that the higher the closeness of the relationship, the better the model obtained. The originality of this research is the development of semiparametric SEM, which has not been widely studied by researchers.

Keywords: semiparametric SEM, measurement model, structural model, reflective model, formative model

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21624 Establishing Multi-Leveled Computability as a Living-System Evolutionary Context

Authors: Ron Cottam, Nils Langloh, Willy Ranson, Roger Vounckx

Abstract:

We start by formally describing the requirements for environmental-reaction survival computation in a natural temporally-demanding medium, and develop this into a more general model of the evolutionary context as a computational machine. The effect of this development is to replace deterministic logic by a modified form which exhibits a continuous range of dimensional fractal diffuseness between the isolation of perfectly ordered localization and the extended communication associated with nonlocality as represented by pure causal chaos. We investigate the appearance of life and consciousness in the derived general model, and propose a representation of Nature within which all localizations have the character of quasi-quantal entities. We compare our conclusions with Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle and nonlocal teleportation, and maintain that computability is the principal influence on evolution in the model we propose.

Keywords: computability, evolution, life, localization, modeling, nonlocality

Procedia PDF Downloads 382
21623 Metabolic Predictive Model for PMV Control Based on Deep Learning

Authors: Eunji Choi, Borang Park, Youngjae Choi, Jinwoo Moon

Abstract:

In this study, a predictive model for estimating the metabolism (MET) of human body was developed for the optimal control of indoor thermal environment. Human body images for indoor activities and human body joint coordinated values were collected as data sets, which are used in predictive model. A deep learning algorithm was used in an initial model, and its number of hidden layers and hidden neurons were optimized. Lastly, the model prediction performance was analyzed after the model being trained through collected data. In conclusion, the possibility of MET prediction was confirmed, and the direction of the future study was proposed as developing various data and the predictive model.

Keywords: deep learning, indoor quality, metabolism, predictive model

Procedia PDF Downloads 240
21622 Irrigation Scheduling for Wheat in Bangladesh under Water Stress Conditions Using Water Productivity Model

Authors: S. M. T. Mustafa, D. Raes, M. Huysmans

Abstract:

Proper utilization of water resource is very important in agro-based Bangladesh. Irrigation schedule based on local environmental conditions, soil type and water availability will allow a sustainable use of water resources in agriculture. In this study, the FAO crop water model (AquaCrop) was used to simulate the different water and fertilizer management strategies in different location of Bangladesh to obtain a management guideline for the farmer. Model was calibrated and validated for wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). The statistical indices between the observed and simulated grain yields obtained were very good with R2, RMSE, and EF values of 0.92, 0.33, and 0.83, respectively for model calibration and 0.92, 0.68 and 0.77, respectively for model validations. Stem elongation (jointing) to booting and flowering stage were identified as most water sensitive for wheat. Deficit irrigation on water sensitive stage could increase the grain yield for increasing soil fertility levels both for loamy and sandy type soils. Deficit irrigation strategies provides higher water productivity than full irrigation strategies and increase the yield stability (reduce the standard deviation). The practical deficit irrigation schedule for wheat for four different stations and two different soils were designed. Farmer can produce more crops by using deficit irrigation schedule under water stress condition. Practical application and validation of proposed strategies will make them more credible.

Keywords: crop-water model, deficit irrigation, irrigation scheduling, wheat

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21621 Developing a Clustered-Based Model and Strategy for Waterfront Urban Tourism in Manado, Indonesia

Authors: Bet El Silisna Lagarense, Agustinus Walansendow

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Manado Waterfront Development (MWD) occurs along the coastline of the city to meet the communities’ various needs and interests. Manado waterfront, with its various kinds of tourist attractions, is being developed to strengthen opportunities for both tourism and other businesses. There are many buildings that are used for trade and business purposes. The spatial distributions of tourism, commercial and residential land uses overlap. Field research at the study site consisted desktop scan, questionnaire-based survey, observation and in-depth interview with key informants and Focus Group Discussion (FGD) identified how MWD was initially planned and designed in the whole process of decision making in terms of resource and environmental management particularly for the waterfront tourism development in the long run. The study developed a clustered-based model for waterfront urban tourism in Manado through evaluation of spatial distribution of tourism uses along the waterfront.

Keywords: clustered-based model, Manado, urban tourism, waterfront

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21620 Model Averaging in a Multiplicative Heteroscedastic Model

Authors: Alan Wan

Abstract:

In recent years, the body of literature on frequentist model averaging in statistics has grown significantly. Most of this work focuses on models with different mean structures but leaves out the variance consideration. In this paper, we consider a regression model with multiplicative heteroscedasticity and develop a model averaging method that combines maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters in both the mean and variance functions of the model. Our weight choice criterion is based on a minimisation of a plug-in estimator of the model average estimator's squared prediction risk. We prove that the new estimator possesses an asymptotic optimality property. Our investigation of finite-sample performance by simulations demonstrates that the new estimator frequently exhibits very favourable properties compared to some existing heteroscedasticity-robust model average estimators. The model averaging method hedges against the selection of very bad models and serves as a remedy to variance function misspecification, which often discourages practitioners from modeling heteroscedasticity altogether. The proposed model average estimator is applied to the analysis of two real data sets.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity-robust, model averaging, multiplicative heteroscedasticity, plug-in, squared prediction risk

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21619 The Role of Uncertainty in the Integration of Environmental Parameters in Energy System Modeling

Authors: Alexander de Tomás, Miquel Sierra, Stefan Pfenninger, Francesco Lombardi, Ines Campos, Cristina Madrid

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Environmental parameters are key in the definition of sustainable energy systems yet excluded from most energy system optimization models. Still, decision-making may be misleading without considering them. Environmental analyses of the energy transition are a key part of industrial ecology but often are performed without any input from the users of the information. This work assesses the systemic impacts of energy transition pathways in Portugal. Using the Calliope energy modeling framework, 250+ optimized energy system pathways are generated. A Delphi study helps to identify the relevant criteria for the stakeholders as regards the environmental assessment, which is performed with ENBIOS, a python package that integrates life cycle assessment (LCA) with a metabolic analysis based on complex relations. Furthermore, this study focuses on how the uncertainty propagates through the model’s consortium. With the aim of doing so, a soft link between the Calliope/ENBIOS cascade and Brightway’s data capabilities is built to perform Monte Carlo simulations. These findings highlight the relevance of including uncertainty analysis as a range of values rather than informing energy transition results with a single value.

Keywords: energy transition, energy modeling, uncertainty, sustainability

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21618 Reliability Prediction of Tires Using Linear Mixed-Effects Model

Authors: Myung Hwan Na, Ho- Chun Song, EunHee Hong

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We widely use normal linear mixed-effects model to analysis data in repeated measurement. In case of detecting heteroscedasticity and the non-normality of the population distribution at the same time, normal linear mixed-effects model can give improper result of analysis. To achieve more robust estimation, we use heavy tailed linear mixed-effects model which gives more exact and reliable analysis conclusion than standard normal linear mixed-effects model.

Keywords: reliability, tires, field data, linear mixed-effects model

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21617 Drivers and Barriers for Implementing Environmental Management in Beverage Processors: A Case of Thailand

Authors: Auttasuriyanan Pakpoom, Setthasakko Watchaneeporn

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The main purpose of this study is to gain a clearer understanding of key determinants that drive environmental management and barriers that hinder its development. The study employs semi-structured interviews with key informants accompanied by site observations. Key informants include production, environmental and plant managers of six beverage companies, including three Thai and three multinational companies in Thailand. It is found that corporate image, government subsidies, top management leadership and education institutes are four primary factors influencing the implementation of environmental management in the beverage processors. No demand from Asian buyers, employee resistance to change and lack of environmental knowledge are identified as barriers.

Keywords: environmental management, beverage, government subsidies, education institutes, employee resistance, environmental knowledge, Thailand

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21616 Examining the Possibility of Establishing Regional Environmental Governance in the Middle East

Authors: Somayeh Bahrami, Seyed Jalal Dehghani Firoozabadi

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Environmental governance is an interdisciplinary concept in political ecology and environmental policy focusing on the necessity of embedding the environmental issues in all levels of decision-making and act of states. Similar to sustainable development the concept of environmental governance believes that economic and political life of societies and countries need to be considered as a subset of the environment. This concept has been accepted by North Countries, those that have done the most irreparable environmental damage since the Industrial Revolution. Although North Countries are more responsible for damage to the environment, considering the global fluidity logic of environmental challenges, such an impression doesn’t cause developing countries to disavow responsibility for regional and international cooperation to protect the environment. Establishing an environmental governance at all levels of local, national, regional and global is one of the most significant ways to improve sustainable development. Given to the various political and economic difficulties developing countries including the Middle East face, building environmental governance in these countries is difficult but feasible, as these difficulties have not impeded their mutual partnership for confronting joint environmental issues. However, the environmental issues wouldn’t be solved only by mutual partnership but by establishing environmental governance, establishing regional environmental institutions (an introduction to building Regional Environmental Governance) and delegation of some environmental authorities to the mentioned institutions. The research is aimed at examining necessities, opportunities, and barriers to establishing Regional Environmental Governance in the Middle East. Therefore, this research seeks to answer the question of whether establishing Regional Environmental Governance is possible in the Middle East and if so then why. This study used descriptive-analytical methods and the inferential methodology has been used to reach the goals. Data has been collected by using library and internet sources as well as news sources on the basis of objective-historical data.

Keywords: environmental democracy (ED), environmental governance (EG), middle east (ME), regional environmental governance (REG)

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21615 Maintaining Biodiversity Through Environmental Conservation Awareness Program in Nigeria School Sectors

Authors: Oluwasegun A. Oke, Mayowa A. Abolaji, Oluwaseun A. Adefila

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Environmental problems have become a priority on the world political agenda for the last two decades and this is inevitably linked with the general degradation of our environment which calls for ultimate attention. Therefore, this study searched for better and more involving methods of imparting environmental knowledge to average learner with the view of creating awareness, increasing knowledge as well as changing their attitude positively towards conservation of the environment. The study also investigated the effectiveness of conservation club in creating awareness (among students) about environmental conservation. About 240 Students were randomly selected for data collection using validated instruments (questionnaires). T-test statistics, chi-square and simple percentage were the major statistical tools employed in data analysis. This study revealed that environmental conservation club plays a vital role in creating awareness as well as promoting students understanding of environmental issues to promote positive attitude towards natural environment.

Keywords: environmental conservation, biodiversity, awareness program, environmental disasters

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21614 Towards a Measurement-Based E-Government Portals Maturity Model

Authors: Abdoullah Fath-Allah, Laila Cheikhi, Rafa E. Al-Qutaish, Ali Idri

Abstract:

The e-government emerging concept transforms the way in which the citizens are dealing with their governments. Thus, the citizens can execute the intended services online anytime and anywhere. This results in great benefits for both the governments (reduces the number of officers) and the citizens (more flexibility and time saving). Therefore, building a maturity model to assess the e-government portals becomes desired to help in the improvement process of such portals. This paper aims at proposing an e-government maturity model based on the measurement of the best practices’ presence. The main benefit of such maturity model is to provide a way to rank an e-government portal based on the used best practices, and also giving a set of recommendations to go to the higher stage in the maturity model.

Keywords: best practices, e-government portal, maturity model, quality model

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