Search results for: maramataka (Maaori calendar)

Authors: Ayla Hoeta, Holly Winton

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Maramataka is an ancestral lunar environmental knowledge system based on environmental tohu (signs, observations or indicators), that continues to impart maatauranga (knowledge) to tangata whenua, people of the land after thousands of years. Maramataka is the mauri (energy) flow between whenua (land), moana (water) and rangi (sky), experienced through tirotiro (observing), connecting and attuning to the natural environment. Tohu serve as guidance to practises of kaiawhina (protection) a key value driving Aotearoa New Zealand led research in Antarctica. Recent developments recognise the importance of including and integrating indigenous knowledge and perspectives such as maatauranga Maaori which can provide insights into the conservation of Antarctica. We use an ancient kaupapa Maaori framework of weaving, wayfinding and attunement to navigate complexities using Hautu Waka. We investigate and weave together learnings from Antarctic and western science and indigenous Maaori maatauranga and tohu of moana, whenua and rangi to provide an indigenous perspective of Antarctica taiao and Maramataka. Drawing on past and present knowledge of environmental calendars contained in maatauranga Maaori and paleoclimate knowledge bases, field observations, interviews and whakataukii (proverbs), we aim to provide a conceptual Maramataka of the southwestern Ross Sea region and area of Antarctica. A key area of interest are the tohu related to the marama which are connected to all three interweaving spheres of moana, rangi, whenua. Maatauranga Maramataka in Aotearoa has been developed over millennia and we acknowledge the mana and sacredness of this tupuna knowledge and that this conceptual Maramataka serves as the starting point of a journey to shine light on indigenous perspectives using Maaori methods and frameworks in a dominant western science paradigm.

Keywords: Maramataka, Antarctica, Aotearoa, Maaori, tohu, moon, lunar calendar

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Authors: Ayla Hoeta

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The focus of this research is mahi Maramataka, ‘the practices of Maramataka’ as a traditional and evolving knowledge system and its connection to whaanau oranga (wellbeing) and healing. Centering kaupapa Maaori methods and knowledge this research will explore how Maramataka can be used as a tool for oranga and healing for whaanau to engage with different environments aligned with Maramataka flow and optimal time based on the environment. Maramataka is an ancestral lunar environmental knowledge system rooted within korero tuku iho, Maaori creation stories, dating back to the beginning of time. The significance of Maramataka is the ancient environmental knowledge and the connecting energy flow of mauri (life force) between whenua (land), moana (ocean) and rangi (sky). The lunar component of the Maramataka is widely understood and highlights the different phases of the moon. Each moon phase is named with references to puurakau stories and environmental and ecological information. Marama, meaning moon and taka, meaning cycle, is used as a lunar and environmental calendar. There are lunar phases that are optimal for specific activities, such as the Tangaroa phase, a time of abundance and productivity and ocean-based activities like fishing. Other periods in the Maramataka, such as Rakaunui (full moon), connect the highest tides and highest energy of the lunar cycle, ideal for social, physical activity and particularly planting. Other phases like Tamatea are unpredictable whereas Whiro (new moon/s) is reflective, deep and cautious during the darkest nights. Whaanau, particularly in urban settings have become increasingly disconnected from the natural environment, the Maramataka has become a tool that they can connect to which offers an alternative to dominant perspectives of health and is an approach that is uniquely Maaori. In doing so, this research will raise awareness of oranga or lack of oranga, and lived experience of whaanau in Tamaki Makaurau - Aotearoa, on a journey to revival of Maramataka and healing. The research engages Hautu Waka as a methodology using the methods of ancient kaupapa Māori practises based on wayfinding and attunement with the natural environment. Using ancient ways of being, knowing, seeing and doing the Hautu Waka will centre kaupapa Maaori perspectives to process design, reflection and evaluation. The methods of Hautu Waka consists of five interweaving phases, 1) Te Rapunga (the search) in infinite potential, 2) Te Kitenga (the seeing), observations of and attunement to tohu 3) te whainga (the pursuit) and deeply exploring key tohu 4) te whiwhinga (the acquiring), of knowledge and clearer ideas, 5) Te Rawenga (the celebration), reflection and acknowledgement of the journey and achievements. This research is an expansion from my creative practices across whaanau-centred inquiry, to understand the benefits of Maramataka and how it can be embodied and practised in a modern-day context to support oranga and healing. Thus, the goal is to work with kaupapa Maaori methodologies to authenticate as a Maaori practitioner and researcher and allow an authentic indigenous approach to the exploration of Maramataka and through a kaupapa Maaori lens.

Keywords: maramataka (Maaori calendar), tangata (people), taiao (environment), whenua (land), whaanau (family), hautu waka (navigation framework)

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Authors: Aslam Faheem, Hunjra Ahmed Imran, Tayachi Tahar, Verhoeven Peter, Tariq Yasir

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We investigate the evidence of three risk-adjusted calendar anomalies in eight frontier markets. Our sample consists of the daily closing prices of their stock indices for the period of January 2006 to September 2019. We categorize the data with respect to day-of-the-week, Lunar calendar and Islamic calendar. Using Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) eight Markets Index as our proxy of the market portfolio, most of the frontier markets tested exhibit calendar seasonality. We confirm that systematic risk varies with respect to day-of-the-week, Lunar months and Islamic months. After consideration of time-varying risk and applying Bonferroni correction, few frontier markets exhibit profitable investment opportunities from calendar return anomalies for active investment managers.

Keywords: asset pricing, frontier markets, market efficiency, Islamic calendar effects, Islamic stock markets

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Authors: Abdul Mufid

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This study aims to integrate hadith, astronomy, and sociology studies in studying the accelerated implementation of the unification of the Hijri calendar through a multidisciplinary approach. The Hijri calendar is compiled based on the astronomical phenomena of regular movements of the earth, moon, and sun. Meanwhile, for the implementation of worship, the Hijri calendar must refer to the provisions of Islamic law or fiqh. To set the Hijri calendar, agreement on the criteria for the visibility of the new moon (first crescent), date limits, and absolute authority is required. Agreement on visibility criteria requires a valid basis for astronomical studies. Agreement on territorial boundaries is necessary because our earth is round, and the new moon cannot be observed simultaneously. And the agreement of the authorities is also needed to resolve unavoidable differences, especially differences in the appearance of the new moon and differences in schools of thought. The research is based on astronomical data, the experiences of Indonesia and Islamic countries regarding the Hijri calendar, in-depth and focused interviews with various sources, as well as a review of hadith literature. The results of the study show that the implementation of the unification of the Hijri calendar through the three approaches above can be carried out and can be accelerated.

Keywords: calendar unification, new moon (hilal) visibility, multidisciplinary approach, the unity of the Muslims

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Authors: Muhammad Imran, Iqra Basit, Mobushir Riaz Khan, Sajid Rasheed Ahmad

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The present study investigates the space-time impact of climate change on the rice crop calendar in tropical Gujranwala, Pakistan. The climate change impact was quantified through the climatic variables, whereas the existing calendar of the rice crop was compared with the phonological stages of the crop, depicted through the time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat data for the decade 2005-2015. Local maxima were applied on the time series of NDVI to compute the rice phonological stages. Panel models with fixed and cross-section fixed effects were used to establish the relation between the climatic parameters and the time-series of NDVI across villages and across rice growing periods. Results show that the climatic parameters have significant impact on the rice crop calendar. Moreover, the fixed effect model is a significant improvement over cross-sectional fixed effect models (R-squared equal to 0.673 vs. 0.0338). We conclude that high inter-annual variability of climatic variables cause high variability of NDVI, and thus, a shift in the rice crop calendar. Moreover, inter-annual (temporal) variability of the rice crop calendar is high compared to the inter-village (spatial) variability. We suggest the local rice farmers to adapt this change in the rice crop calendar.

Keywords: Landsat NDVI, panel models, temperature, rainfall

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Authors: Chevon Fernando, Banuka Athuraliya

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The purpose of this research is to provide a solution to the students’ time management, which usually becomes an issue because students must study and manage their personal commitments. "TimeTune," an AI-based study planner that provides an opportunity to maneuver study timeframes by incorporating modern machine learning algorithms with calendar applications, is unveiled as the ideal solution. The research is focused on the development of LSTM models that connect to the Google Calendar API in the process of developing learning paths that would be fit for a unique student's daily life experience and study history. A key finding of this research is the success in building the LSTM model to predict optimal study times, which, integrating with the real-time data of Google Calendar, will generate the timetables automatically in a personalized and customized manner. The methodology encompasses Agile development practices and Object-Oriented Analysis and Design (OOAD) principles, focusing on user-centric design and iterative development. By adopting this method, students can significantly reduce the tension associated with poor study habits and time management. In conclusion, "TimeTune" displays an advanced step in personalized education technology. The fact that its application of ML algorithms and calendar integration is quite innovative is slowly and steadily revolutionizing the lives of students. The excellence of maintaining a balanced academic and personal life is stress reduction, which the applications promise to provide for students when it comes to managing their studies.

Keywords: personalized learning, study planner, time management, calendar integration

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Authors: John Rosswell Cummings III

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This research examines the discourse ancient Maya ritual practice manifest and maintained through language in a contemporary society as led by a daykeeper— a Maya spiritual leader— with the objective of discovering if the Maya Calendar has an influence on worldview. Through an ethnography of communication and discursive analysis framework, this research examines the discourse of and around the Maya calendar through original research. Data collected includes the ceremonial performance of the Tzolkin ritual, a ritual that takes place every 13 days to ceremonially welcome one of the 20 Universal Forces. During the ceremony, participants supplicate, sacrifice, and venerate. This ritual, based off the Tzolkin cycle in the Mayan Calendar, contains strong, culture-binding ideologies. This research performs a close analysis of the 20 energies of the Tzolkin and their glyphs so as to gain a better understanding of current ideologies in Maya communities. Through a linguistic relativity frame of reference, including both the strong and weak versions, the 20 Universal Forces are shown to influence ways of life. This research argues that it is not just the native language, but the discourses native to the community as held through the calendar, influence thought and have the potential to offer an alternate worldview, thus shaping the cultural narrative which in return influences identity of the community. Research of this kind, on calendric systems and linguistic relativity, has the power to make great discoveries about the societies of the world and their worldviews.

Keywords: anthropological linguistics, discourse analysis, cultural studies, sociolinguistics

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Authors: Salman Ali Nisar, Suzuki Koji

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In this paper we developed a new algorithm to convert the project scheduling time into calendar date in order to handle non-interruptible activities not to be split by non-working days (such as weekend and holidays). In a construction project some activities might require not to be interrupted even on non-working days, or to be finished on the end day of business days. For example, concrete placing work might be required to be completed by the end day of weekdays i.e. Friday, and curing in the weekend. This research provides an algorithm that imposes time constraint for start and finish times of non-interruptible activities. The algorithm converts working days, which is obtained by Critical Path Method (CPM), to calendar date with consideration of the start date of a project. After determining the interruption by non-working days, the start time of a certain activity should be postponed, if there is enough total float value. Otherwise, the duration is shortened by hiring additional resources capacity or/and using overtime work execution. Then, time constraints are imposed to start time and finish time of the activity. The algorithm is developed in Excel Spreadsheet for microcomputer and therefore we can easily get a feasible, calendared construction schedule for such a construction project with some non-interruptible activities.

Keywords: project management, scheduling, critical path method, time constraint, non-interruptible tasks

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Authors: Konstantopoulos N., Samitas A., E. Vasileiou, Kinias I.

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This article introduces a new view on the month effect study. Applying a Markov Switching Regime model on data from the Greek Time Deposits (TDs) market for the time span January 2003 to October 2013, we examine if there is a month effect on the Greek banking industry. The empirical findings provide convincing evidence for a new king of monthly anomaly. The explanation for the specific abnormality may be the upward deposits window dressing. Further research should be done in order to examine if the specific calendar effect exists in other countries or it is only a Greek phenomenon.

Keywords: calendar anomalies, banking crisis, month effect, Greek banking industry

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Authors: Zain Ul Abideen

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The study examines the potentially dark and bright parts of behavioral biases in investors’ investment decisions in the Pakistani equity market. These biases, directly and indirectly, play a comprehensive role in controlling and deciding the investor’s investment decisions. Stock market anomalies are used as a mediator, while financial literacy is used as a moderator to check the mentioned relationship. The sample consisted of investors who have trading experience of more than two years in the stock market. The result indicates that calendar anomalies do not mediate between overconfidence bias and investment decisions. However, the study investigates the mediating role of fundamental and technical anomalies between overconfidence bias and investment decisions. Furthermore, calendar anomalies play a significant role between the disposition effect and investment decisions. Calendar anomalies also mediate between herding bias and investment decisions. Financial literacy significantly moderates between behavioral biases and stock market anomalies. This research would be beneficial for individual and professional investors in their investment decisions. They should be financially literate, consequently less biased and have no market anomalies. Investors in emerging and developed economies can make optimal decisions in their respective stock markets.

Keywords: behavioral biases, financial literacy, stock market anomalies, investment decision

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Authors: Rafik Ouared

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The purpose of this paper is to invalidate decisions made by the Islamic conference led at Istanbul in 2016, which had defined two basic criteria to determine the start of the lunar month: (1)they are all based on the sighting of the crescent, be it observed or computed with modern methods, and (2) they've strongly recommended the adoption of the principle of 'unification of sighting', by which any occurrence of sighting anywhere would be applicable everywhere. To demonstrate the invalidation of those statements, a survey of 101 years of data, from 1938 to 2038, have been analyzed to compare the probability density function (PDF) of time difference between different types of fajr and new moon. Two groups of fajr have been considered: the 'natural fajr', which is the very first fajr following new moon, and the 'biased fajr', which is defined by human being inclusively of all chosen definitions. The parametric and non-parametric statistical comparisons between the different groups have shown the all the biased PDFs are significantly different from the unbiased (natural) PDF with probability value (p-value) less than 0.001. The significance level was fixed to 0.05. Conclusion: the on-going reference to sighting of crescent is inducing an significant bias in defining lunar calendar. Therefore, 'natural' calendar would be more applicable requiring a more contextualized revision of issue in fiqh.

Keywords: biased fajr, lunar calendar, natural fajr, probability density function, sighting of crescent, time difference between fajr and new moon

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Authors: Marilyn S. Painagan, Willie Jones B. Saliling

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This paper reports an optimized cropping calendar and land suitability for maize in North Cotabato derived from modeling crop productivity over time and space. Using Quantum GIS, eight representative soil types and 0.3o x 0.3o climate grids shapefiles were intersected to form thirty two pedoclimatic zones within the boundaries of the province. Surveys were done to ascertain crop performance and phenological properties on field. Based on these surveys, crop parameters were calibrated specific for a variety of maize. Soil properties and climatic data (daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures) from pedoclimatic zones were loaded to the FAO Aquacrop Water Productivity Model along with the crop properties from field surveys to simulate yield from 1980 to 2010. The average yield per month was computed to come up with the month of planting having the highest and lowest probable yield in a year assuming that all lands were planted with maize. The yield attributes were visualized in the Quantum GIS environment. The study revealed that optimal cropping patterns varied across North Cotabato. Highest probable yield (8000 kg/ha) can be obtained when maize is planted on May and September (sandy clay-loam soils) in the northern part of the province while the lowest probable yield (1000 kg/ha) can be obtained when maize is planted on January, February and March (clay loam soils) at the northern part of the province. Yields are simulated on the basis of varieties currently planted by farmers of North Cotabato. The resulting maps suggest where and when maize is most suitable to achieve high yields. There is a need to ground truth and validate the cropping calendar on field.

Keywords: aquacrop, quantum GIS, maize, cropping calendar, water productivity

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Authors: Kenza Maher, Yahya Zakaria, Noora S. Al-Jaidah

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Temperature is a critical parameter for lithium-ion battery performance, life, and safety. In this study, four commercially available 18650 lithium-ion cells from four different manufacturers are subjected to accelerated cycle aging for up to 500 cycles at two different temperatures (25°C and 45°C). The cells are also calendar-aged at the same temperatures in both charged and discharged states for 6 months to investigate the effect of aging and temperature on capacity fade and state of health. The results showed that all battery cells demonstrated good cyclability and had a good state of health at both temperatures. However, the capacity loss and state of health of these cells are found to be dependent on the cell chemistry and aging conditions, including temperature. Specifically, the capacity loss is found to be higher at the higher aging temperature, indicating the significant impact of temperature on the aging of lithium-ion batteries.

Keywords: lithium-ion battery, aging mechanisms, cycle aging, calendar aging.

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Authors: Aristeidis Samitas, Evangelos Vasileiou

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The aim of this study is to examine the month and the trading month effect under changing financial trends. We choose the Greek stock market to implement our assumption because there are clear and long term periods of financial growth and recession. Daily financial data from Athens Exchange General Index for the period 2002-2012 are considered. The paper employs several linear and non-linear models, although the TGARCH asymmetry model best fits in this sample and for this reason we mainly present the TGARCH results. Empirical results show that changing economic and financial conditions influences the calendar effects. Especially, the trading month effect totally changes in each fortnight according to the financial trend. On the other hand, in Greece the January effect exists during the growth periods, although it does not exist when the financial trend changes. The findings are helpful to anybody who invest and deals with the Greek stock market. Moreover, they may pave the way for an alternative calendar anomalies research approach, so it may be useful to investors who take into account these anomalies when they draw their investment strategy.

Keywords: month effect, trading month effect, economic cycles, crisis

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Authors: Hadis Hosseinzadehnaseri

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The red tide is a kind of algae blooming, caused different problems at different sizes for the human life and the environment, so it has become one of the serious global concerns in the field of Oceanography in few recent decades. This phenomenon has affected on Iran's water, especially the Persian Gulf's since last few years. Collecting data associated with this phenomenon and comparison in different parts of the world is significant as a practical way to study this phenomenon and controlling it. Effective factors to occur this phenomenon lead to the increase of the required nutrients of the algae or provide a good environment for blooming. In this study, we examined the probability of relation between the earthquake and the harmful algae blooming in the Persian Gulf's water through comparing the earthquake data and the recorded Red tides. On the one hand, earthquakes can cause changes in seawater temperature that is effective in creating a suitable environment and the other hand, it increases the possibility of water nutrients, and its transportation in the seabed, so it can play a principal role in the development of red tide occurrence. Comparing the distribution spatial-temporal maps of the earthquakes and deadly red tides in the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea, confirms the hypothesis, why there is a meaningful relation between these two distributions. Comparing the number of earthquakes around the world as well as the number of the red tides in many parts of the world indicates the correlation between these two issues. This subject due to numerous earthquakes, especially in recent years and in the southern part of the country should be considered as a warning to the possibility of re-occurrence of a critical state of red tide in a large scale, why in the year 2008, the number of recorded earthquakes have been more than near years. In this year, the distribution value of the red tide phenomenon in the Persian Gulf got measured about 140,000 square kilometers and entire Oman Sea, with 10 months Survival in the area, which is considered as a record among the occurred algae blooming in the world. In this paper, we could obtain a logical and reasonable relation between the earthquake frequency and this phenomenon occurrence, through compilation of statistics relating to the earthquakes in the southern Iran, from 2000 to the end of the first half of 2013 and also collecting statistics on the occurrence of red tide in the region as well as examination of similar data in different parts of the world. As shown in Figure 1, according to a survey conducted on the earthquake data, the most earthquakes in the southern Iran ranks first in the fourth Gregorian calendar month In April, coincided with Ordibehesht and Khordad in Persian calendar and then in the tenth Gregorian calendar month In October, coincided in Aban and Azar in Persian calendar.

Keywords: red tide, earth quake, persian gulf, harmful algae bloom

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Authors: Parminder K. Laroiya, Sukhdeep S. Kang

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The Present cross-sectional study was conducted on 610 boys (ranging in age bracket of 11 to 17 years) to assess their developmental age to check percentage of early, normal and late maturity among them, and to check whether there is any significant difference in their calendar age and developmental age. Developmental age of these subjects has been accessed by TW2 method (using hand wrist X-rays) and their chronological age was checked from their date of birth certificate. Developmental status of subjects i.e. early, normal or late mature was considered with +2 years or -2 years from their calendar age. Results of this study shows that 50% boys were normal in their maturity status in all age brackets and rest of subjects were either early maturers 24.92% or late maturers 25.08%. When pattern of maturity was studied in each age group it has been found that till the age of 15 years, percentage of normal maturity was less than 50 % whereas in 16 and 17 years age groups, this percentage of normal maturity increased to 60% - 65 % ( this may be because at this age mostly boys attain adolescence) Further investigation of each age group showed that till the age of 14 years percentage of late maturity among these boys were approximately 35% to 40% whereas early maturity lies between 15% to 20%. It has been found from the present study that at the age of 15 years, there is a twist among percentage of late and early maturity among boys-early maturers are 38.61% and late maturers are 16.84%. At the age of 16 and 17 years percentage of late maturity has been decreased to 3% to 6%, whereas percentage of early maturity increased to 35.64 % and 30.69 % respectively.

Keywords: maturity status, developmental age, chronological age, X-rays

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Authors: Arshad A. Narejo, M. Javed Sheikh, G. Mujtaba Khushk, Naeem A Qureshi, M. Ali Sheikh

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Climate change not only influences on agriculture activities but also has certain effects on daily human activities, as well as on overall human health. Keeping in view the significance and huge research gap on the issues, the researchers have found an opportunity to conduct a study in Sindh province of Pakistan, in which the issue of climate shifting/change regarding temperature and precipitation were discussed with the local farmers of district Hyderabad. The quantified perception was gathered on a reliable and valid scale from 200 respondents and was analyzed through SPSS and AMOS software. The result of this study revealed that the significant changes are being occurred in summer (r²=0.96; M=6.78) and winter seasons (r²=0.71; M=6.57), therefore it is leaving bad effects on human health (r²=0.96) and behavior of the local population (r²=0.70). In addition, the change in the cropping calendar, i.e., timing of sowing (r²=0.69; M=8.42) and harvesting (r²=0.79; M=8.27) of different crops have been altered due to changes in local weather patterns. Since the local farmers are also facing seed germination (r²=0.57; M=7.98) problems, it is therefore recommended that concerned authorities/departments should revise the agricultural calendar. Besides this, respondents were in opinion that actual summer starts even before the vacation and cold season starts when winter vacations ended. Thus, the government and other concerned departments should reconsider or reschedule the vacation regulation policy (r²=0.70) at least at the provincial level.

Keywords: climate, climate shifting/change, impact on daily life, impact on agricultural activities

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Authors: Maria Ines Azambuja

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Graphic displays of Age-Period-Cohort (APC) mortality trends generally uses data aggregated within 5 or 10-year intervals. Technology allows one to increase the amount of processed data. Displaying occurrences by 1-year intervals is a logic first step in the direction of attaining higher quality landscapes of variations in temporal occurrences. Method: 1) Comparison of UK mortality trends plotted by 10-, 5- and 1-year intervals; 2) Comparison of UK and US mortality trends (period X age and cohort X age) displayed by 1-year intervals. Source: Mortality data (period, 1x1, males, 1933-1912) uploaded from the Human Mortality Database to Excel files, where Period X Age and Cohort X Age graphics were produced. The choice of transforming age-specific trends from calendar to birth-cohort years (cohort = period – age) (instead of using cohort 1x1 data available at the HMD resource) was taken to facilitate the comparison of age-specific trends when looking across calendar-years and birth-cohorts. Yearly live births, males, 1933 to 1912 (UK) were uploaded from the HFD. Influenza references are from the literature. Results: 1) The use of 1-year intervals unveiled previously unsuspected period, cohort and interacting period x cohort effects upon all-causes mortality. 2) The UK and US figures showed variations associated with particular calendar years (1936, 1940, 1951, 1957-68, 72) and, most surprisingly, with particular birth-cohorts (1889-90 in the US, and 1900, 1918-19, 1940-41 and 1946-47, in both countries. Also, the figures showed ups and downs in age-specific trends initiated at particular birth-cohorts (1900, 1918-19 and 1947-48) or a particular calendar-year (1968, 1972, 1977-78 in the US), variations at times restricted to just a range of ages (cohort x period interacting effects). Importantly, most of the identified “scars” (period and cohort) correlates with the record of occurrences of Influenza A epidemics since the late 19th Century. Conclusions: The use of 1-year intervals to describe APC mortality trends both increases the amount of information available, thus enhancing the opportunities for patterns’ recognition, and increases our capability of interpreting those patterns by describing trends across smaller intervals of time (period or birth-cohort). The US and the UK mortality landscapes share many but not all 'scars' and distortions suggested here to be associated with influenza epidemics. Different size-effects of wars are evident, both in mortality and in fertility. But it would also be realistic to suppose that the preponderant influenza A viruses circulating in UK and US at the beginning of the 20th Century might be different and the difference to have intergenerational long-term consequences. Compared with the live births trend (UK data), birth-cohort scars clearly depend on birth-cohort sizes relatives to neighbor ones, which, if causally associated with influenza, would result from influenza-related fetal outcomes/selection. Fetal selection could introduce continuing modifications on population patterns of immune-inflammatory phenotypes that might give rise to 'epidemic constitutions' favoring the occurrence of particular diseases. Comparative analysis of mortality landscapes may help us to straight our record of past circulation of Influenza viruses and document associations between influenza recycling and fertility changes.

Keywords: age-period-cohort trends, epidemic constitution, fertility, influenza, mortality

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Authors: Sonia Lippke, Eric Rost, Volker Cihlar

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Objective: To examine the interrelation of physical activity with work-related variables in older individuals to determine pathways to promote the maintenance of an aging workforce’s ability and motivation to work. Design/methodology/approach: An interview-study was conducted with N=5,002 community-dwelling people aged 55 to 70 years (for T1). N=2,501 (50%) were interviewed 3 years later again (T2). Correlation-, Chi²-, MANOVA and moderated mediation analyses were performed. Findings: The less people worked, the more physically active they were. Working was only related to calendar age but not to subjective age. Men and women only differed in working hours and an interaction of gender and pension regarding working hours and subjective health revealed: Controlled for calendar age, the amount of worked hours while receiving pension was about the same in men and women, however, men worked significantly more hours if they did not receive pension. The relationship between physical activity and worked hours was mediated by life investment and subjective health in women, and by subjective health in men. Practical implications: Developing good health through performing physical activity should be done as part of work-place health promotion or by work organization and HR management to enable, and motivate older individuals to work even when receiving pension. Thus, such initiates should not only offered for younger and middle aged employees. Physical activity and company-facilitated sports activities can be an integral part in this. Originality/value: This is the first study testing these mechanisms in this age group, indicating the importance of not only understanding physical activity as a time challenge to work but also the potential to protect workability and to work aside from receiving pension.

Keywords: life investment, moderated mediation, physical activity, older workers, subjective health

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Authors: Mathumalar Loganathan, Lina Syazana, Bryony Dean Franklin

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Background: The therapeutic benefit of self-administered medication for long-term use is limited by an average 50% non-adherence rate. Patient forgetfulness is a common factor in unintentional non-adherence. With a growing ageing population, strategies to improve self-administration of medication adherence are essential. Our aim was to review systematically the effects of interventions to optimise self-administration of medication. Method: Database searched were MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsynINFO, CINAHL from 1980 to 31 October 2013. Search terms included were ‘self-administration’, ‘self-care’, ‘medication adherence’, and ‘intervention’. Two independent reviewers undertook screening and methodological quality assessment, using the Downs and Black rating scale. Results: The search strategy retrieved 6 studies that met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Three intervention strategies were identified: self-administration medication programme (SAMP), nursing education and medication packaging (pill calendar). A nursing education programme focused on improving patients’ behavioural self-management of drug prescribing. This was the most studied area and three studies highlighting an improvement in self-administration of medication. Conclusion: Results are mixed and there is no one interventional strategy that has proved to be effective. Nevertheless, self-administration of medication programme seems to show most promise. A multi-faceted approach and clearer policy guideline are likely to be required to improve prescribing for these vulnerable patients. Mixed results were found for SAMP. Medication packaging (pill calendar) was evaluated in one study showing a significant improvement in self-administration of medication. A meta-analysis could not be performed due to heterogeneity in the outcome measures.

Keywords: self-administered medication, intervention, prescribing, older patients

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Authors: Nadeesha Sewwandi, Dilini Shashikala, Rajarathnam Kanapathy, Shivakumaran Viyasan, Saman Kumara, Duminda Guruge

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Introduction: Nutrition is fundamental for good health and development during the early years of life. This study describes how rural community does interventions for improving the nutrition and health of children less than 5 year ages using health promotion approach and this study was conducted with children society and mothers groups in a rural village called Welankulama in Sri Lanka. Methodology: The details got from Public Health Midwife in this village showed there were malnourished children under 5 years age. So, we discussed this problem with the children society, mothers groups and identified the determinants with them. Then they wanted to address some of the determinants that they prioritized from their discussions. ‘Evening school’ was a new place to this village to do collective feeding for small children. ‘Mobile library’ was another new concept in this village and nutrition books, evidence collection were there to read for villagers. Mothers marked the foods given to their kids in a book called ‘Nutrition book’. And also mothers tend to mark the level of eating foods to motivate their children in a ‘Hapana calendar’. Results: In terms of results, malnourished children under 5 years age got reduced and the number of children having illnesses got reduced. Marking nutrition book and ‘Hapana calendar’ were become as trend among mothers. Apart from the above, there was good improvement of physical, social and emotional wellbeing of children. Children who received early stimulation with nutrition supplements had better outcomes than children who only received nutrition supplements, thereby amplifying the impact of nutrition. Conclusion: Health promotion interventions are helped to change nutritional behaviors of early childhood in rural community and it makes children healthier and better able to learn.

Keywords: early childhood, nutrition, determinants, health promotion process

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Authors: Ryan B. Simpson, Margaret A. Waskow, Aishwarya Venkat, Elena N. Naumova

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The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate that 31 known foodborne pathogens cause 9.4 million cases of these illnesses annually in US. Over 90% of these illnesses are associated with exposure to Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, Cyclospora, Listeria, Salmonella, Shigella, Shiga-Toxin Producing E.Coli (STEC), Vibrio, and Yersinia. Contaminated products contain parasites typically causing an intestinal illness manifested by diarrhea, stomach cramping, nausea, weight loss, fatigue and may result in deaths in fragile populations. Since 1998, the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) has allowed for routine collection of suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases of food poisoning. While retrospective analyses have revealed common pathogen-specific seasonal patterns, little is known concerning the stability of those patterns over time and whether they can be used for preventative forecasting. The objective of this study is to construct a calendar of foodborne outbreaks of nine infections based on the peak timing of outbreak incidence in the US from 1996 to 2017. Reported cases were abstracted from FoodNet for Salmonella (135115), Campylobacter (121099), Shigella (48520), Cryptosporidium (21701), STEC (18022), Yersinia (3602), Vibrio (3000), Listeria (2543), and Cyclospora (758). Monthly counts were compiled for each agent, seasonal peak timing and peak intensity were estimated, and the stability of seasonal peaks and synchronization of infections was examined. Negative Binomial harmonic regression models with the delta-method were applied to derive confidence intervals for the peak timing for each year and overall study period estimates. Preliminary results indicate that five infections continue to lead as major causes of outbreaks, exhibiting steady upward trends with annual increases in cases ranging from 2.71% (95%CI: [2.38, 3.05]) in Campylobacter, 4.78% (95%CI: [4.14, 5.41]) in Salmonella, 7.09% (95%CI: [6.38, 7.82]) in E.Coli, 7.71% (95%CI: [6.94, 8.49]) in Cryptosporidium, and 8.67% (95%CI: [7.55, 9.80]) in Vibrio. Strong synchronization of summer outbreaks were observed, caused by Campylobacter, Vibrio, E.Coli and Salmonella, peaking at 7.57 ± 0.33, 7.84 ± 0.47, 7.85 ± 0.37, and 7.82 ± 0.14 calendar months, respectively, with the serial cross-correlation ranging 0.81-0.88 (p < 0.001). Over 21 years, Listeria and Cryptosporidium peaks (8.43 ± 0.77 and 8.52 ± 0.45 months, respectively) have a tendency to arrive 1-2 weeks earlier, while Vibrio peaks (7.8 ± 0.47) delay by 2-3 weeks. These findings will be incorporated in the forecast models to predict common paths of the spread, long-term trends, and the synchronization of outbreaks across etiological agents. The predictive modeling of foodborne outbreaks should consider long-term changes in seasonal timing, spatiotemporal trends, and sources of contamination.

Keywords: foodborne outbreak, national outbreak reporting system, predictive modeling, seasonality

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Authors: Debasish Das, Mainak Mitra, A.Chaudhuri

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For the purpose of producing moisture vapor permeable waterproof cotton fabric to be used for protective apparel against rain, cotton fabric was coated with the blend of natural rubber and chloroprene rubber containing ammonium acetate as the water-soluble salt, employing a calendar coating technique. Rubber formulations also contained filler, homogenizer, and a typical sulphur curing system. Natural rubber and chloroprene blend in the blend ratio of 30: 70, containing 25 parts of sodium acetate per hundred parts of rubber was coated on the fabric. The coated fabric was vulcanized thereafter at 140oC for 3 h. Coated and vulcanized fabric was subsequently dipped in water for 45 min, followed by drying in air. Such set of treatments produced optimum results. Coated, vulcanized, washed and dried cotton fabric showed optimum developments in the property profiles in respect of waterproofness, breathability as revealed by moisture vapor transmission rate, coating adhesion, tensile properties, abrasion resistance, flex endurance and fire retardancy. Incorporation of highly water-soluble ammonium acetate salt in the coating formulation and their subsequent removal from vulcanized coated layer affected by post washing in consequent to dipping in the water-bath produced holes of only a few microns in the coating matrix of the fabric. Such microporous membrane formed on the cotton fabric allowed only transportation of moisture vapor through them, giving a moisture vapor transmission rate of 3734 g/m2/24h, while acting as a barrier for large liquid water droplet resisting 120cm of the water column in the hydrostatic water-head tester, rendering the coated cotton fabric waterproof. Examination of surface morphology of vulcanized coating by scanning electron microscopy supported the mechanism proposed for development of breathable waterproof layer on cotton fabric by the process employed above. Such process provides an easy and cost-effective route for achieving moisture vapor permeable waterproof cotton.

Keywords: moisture vapour permeability, waterproofness, chloroprene, calendar coating, coating adhesion, fire retardancy

Procedia PDF Downloads 255

Authors: Matthias Nnadi

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This paper investigates the relationship between premiums and returns in the short and long terms in European merger and acquisition (M&A) deals. The study employs Calendar Time Portfolio (CTP) model and find strong evidence that in the long run, premiums have a positive impact on performance, and we also establish evidence of a significant difference between the abnormal returns of the high premium paying portfolio and the low premium paying ones. Even in cases where all sub-portfolios show negative abnormal returns, the high premium category still outperforms the low premium category. Our findings have implications for companies engaging in acquisitions.

Keywords: mergers, premium, performance, returns, acquisitions

Procedia PDF Downloads 278

Authors: Chelali Mohammed

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In the context of the application of the competency-based approach in the system educational Algeria, the price of physical education and sport must privilege the acquisition of learning approaches and especially the approach science, which from problem situations, research and develops him information processing and application of knowledge and know-how in new situations in the words of ‘JOHN DEWEY’ ‘learning by practice’. And to achieve these goals and make teaching more EPS motivating, consistent and concrete, it is appropriate to perform a pedagogical approach freed from the constraints and open to creativity and student-centered in the light of the competency approach adopted in the formal curriculum. This approach is not unusual, but we think it is a highly professional nature requires the competence of the teacher.

Keywords: approach competencies, physical, education, teachers

Procedia PDF Downloads 603

Authors: Farnaz Farhangi

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Many people in New Zealand believe that the access to water is inexhaustible, and it comes from a history of virtually unrestricted access to it. For the region like Hamilton which is one of New Zealand’s fastest growing cities, it is crucial for policy makers to know about the future water consumption and implementation of rules and regulation such as universal water metering. Hamilton residents use water freely and they do not have any idea about how much water they use. Hence, one of proposed objectives of this research is focusing on forecasting water consumption using different methods. Residential water consumption time series exhibits seasonal and trend variations. Seasonality is the pattern caused by repeating events such as weather conditions in summer and winter, public holidays, etc. The problem with this seasonal fluctuation is that, it dominates other time series components and makes difficulties in determining other variations (such as educational campaign’s effect, regulation, etc.) in time series. Apart from seasonality, a stochastic trend is also combined with seasonality and makes different effects on results of forecasting. According to the forecasting literature, preprocessing (de-trending and de-seasonalization) is essential to have more performed forecasting results, while some other researchers mention that seasonally non-adjusted data should be used. Hence, I answer the question that is pre-processing essential? A wide range of forecasting methods exists with different pros and cons. In this research, I apply double seasonal ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), considering diverse elements such as seasonality and calendar effects (public and school holidays) and combine their results to find the best predicted values. My hypothesis is the examination the results of combined method (hybrid model) and individual methods and comparing the accuracy and robustness. In order to use ARIMA, the data should be stationary. Also, ANN has successful forecasting applications in terms of forecasting seasonal and trend time series. Using a hybrid model is a way to improve the accuracy of the methods. Due to the fact that water demand is dominated by different seasonality, in order to find their sensitivity to weather conditions or calendar effects or other seasonal patterns, I combine different methods. The advantage of this combination is reduction of errors by averaging of each individual model. It is also useful when we are not sure about the accuracy of each forecasting model and it can ease the problem of model selection. Using daily residential water consumption data from January 2000 to July 2015 in Hamilton, I indicate how prediction by different methods varies. ANN has more accurate forecasting results than other method and preprocessing is essential when we use seasonal time series. Using hybrid model reduces forecasting average errors and increases the performance.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), double seasonal ARIMA, forecasting, hybrid model

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Authors: Marilyn S. Painagan

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This general objective of the study was to apply the AquaCrop model to the conditions in the municipality of Carmen, North Cotabato in terms of predicting corn yields in this area and determine the influence of rainfall and soil depth on simulated yield. The study revealed wide disparity in monthly yields as a consequence of similarly varying monthly rainfall magnitudes. It also found out that simulated yield varies with the depth of soil, which in this case was clay loam, the predominant soil in the study area. The model was found to be easy to use even with limited data and shows a vast potential for various farming and policy applications, such as formulation of a cropping calendar.

Keywords: aquacrop, evapotranspiration, crop modelling, crop simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 253

Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

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Electricity markets throughout the world have undergone substantial changes. Accurate, reliable, clear and comprehensible modeling and forecasting of different variables (loads and prices in the first instance) have achieved increasing importance. In this paper, we describe the actual state of the art focusing on reg-SARMA methods, which have proven to be flexible enough to accommodate the electricity price/load behavior satisfactory. More specifically, we will discuss: 1) The dichotomy between point and interval forecasts; 2) The difficult choice between stochastic (e.g. climatic variation) and non-deterministic predictors (e.g. calendar variables); 3) The confrontation between modelling a single aggregate time series or creating separated and potentially different models of sub-series. The noteworthy point that we would like to make it emerge is that prices and loads require different approaches that appear irreconcilable even though must be made reconcilable for the interests and activities of energy companies.

Keywords: interval forecasts, time series, electricity prices, reg-SARIMA methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Mary H Moen, Lauren H. Mandel

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Creating a sense of community in online learning is important for student engagement and success. The integration of discussion forums within online learning environments presents an opportunity to explore how this computer mediated communications format can cultivate a sense of community among students in accelerated master’s degree programs. This research has two aims, to delve into the ways instructors utilize this communications technology to create community and to understand the feelings and experiences of graduate students participating in these forums in regard to its effectiveness in community building. This study is a two-phase approach encompassing qualitative and quantitative methodologies. The data will be collected at an online accelerated Master of Library and Information Studies program at a public university in the northeast of the United States. Phase 1 is a content analysis of the syllabi from all courses taught in the 2023 calendar year, which explores the format and rules governing discussion forum assignments. Four to six individual interviews of department faculty and part time faculty will also be conducted to illuminate their perceptions of the successes and challenges of their discussion forum activities. Phase 2 will be an online survey administered to students in the program during the 2023 calendar year. Quantitative data will be collected for statistical analysis, and short answer responses will be analyzed for themes. The survey is adapted from the Classroom Community Scale Short-Form (CSS-SF), which measures students' self-reported responses on their feelings of connectedness and learning. The prompts will contextualize the items from their experience in discussion forums during the program. Short answer responses on the challenges and successes of using discussion forums will be analyzed to gauge student perceptions and experiences using this type of communication technology in education. This research study is in progress. The authors anticipate that the findings will provide a comprehensive understanding of the varied approaches instructors use in discussion forums for community-building purposes in an accelerated MLIS program. They predict that the more varied, flexible, and consistent student uses of discussion forums are, the greater the sense of community students will report. Additionally, students’ and instructors’ perceptions and experiences within these forums will shed light on the successes and challenges faced, thereby offering valuable recommendations for enhancing online learning environments. The findings are significant because they can contribute actionable insights for instructors, educational institutions, and curriculum designers aiming to optimize the use of discussion forums in online accelerated graduate programs, ultimately fostering a richer and more engaging learning experience for students.

Keywords: accelerated online learning, discussion forums, LIS programs, sense of community, g

Procedia PDF Downloads 87

Authors: Faraz Nikpour Arani, Shahin Haghi Navand

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After Two years of operation, the “Nahj Al Balaghe” riverside park, redesigning research was ordered by second region of Tehran municipality, the goal was to construct the first cultural tourism center in city of Tehran. After Pathological and analytical studies of existing situation, that made by field work research’s and interviews, the main problems was identified as lack of thematic design and some physical problems that reduced the activity and livability ratio of the park. The main approach of this project was thematic physical redesign and redefinition of activities in order to the “Nahj Al Balaghe’s” ideas, cultural days in “shamsi calendar”, the “7 artistic dimensions” and “four classical elements”. This paper is the abstraction of a full research that was done by writers.

Keywords: thematic redesign, Nah Al Balaghe riverside park, cultural tourism center, Tehran

Procedia PDF Downloads 636