Search results for: transportation demand modeling

Authors: Arpan Dwivedi, Yogesh Pahariya

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In this paper, optimal design of hybrid standalone power supply system (SAPS) is done for off grid applications in remote areas where transmission of power is difficult. The hybrid SAPS system uses two primary energy sources, wind and solar, and in addition to these diesel generator is also connected to meet the load demand in case of failure of wind and solar system. This paper presents mathematical modeling of 1.4 MW hybrid SAPS system for rural electrification. This paper firstly focuses on mathematical modeling of PV module connected in a string, secondly focuses on modeling of permanent magnet wind turbine generator (PMWTG). The hybrid controller is also designed for selection of power from the source available as per the load demand. The power output of hybrid SAPS system is analyzed for meeting load demands at urban as well as for rural areas.

Keywords: SAPS, DG, PMWTG, rural area, off grid, PV module.

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Authors: R. M. R. Hussein

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Climate change is one of the greatest environmental, economic, and social challenges of our time. Urban transportation has had a major negative impact on our environment—most of our air pollution comes from transport. This paper explores ways to move toward a more sustainable transport system by focusing on creating a more efficient and livable city and improving the environmental efficiency of transport activity. The analytical study covers some international examples of applying sustainable transportation and uses them to suggest a frame work to develop the transportation system in Egypt to be sustainable and more intelligent.

Keywords: Eco-efficiency, electric vehicle, liveable city, sustainable transportation.

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Authors: Ji-Young Song, Moon-Shuk Song, Hee-Seung Na

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Recently, Northeast Asia has become one of the three largest trade areas, covering approximately 30% of the total trade volume of the world. However, the distribution facilities are saturated due to the increase in the transportation volume within the area and with the European countries. In order to accommodate the increase of the transportation volume, the transportation networking with the major countries in Northeast Asia and Europe is absolutely necessary. The Eurasian Logistics Network will develop into an international passenger transportation network covering the Northeast Asian region and an international freight transportation network connecting across Eurasia Continent. This paper surveys the changes and trend of the distribution network in the Eurasian Region according to the political, economic and environmental changes of the region, analyses the distribution network according to the changes in the transportation policies of the related countries, and provides the direction of the development of composite transportation on the basis of the present conditions of transportation means. The transportation means optimal for the efficiency of transportation system are suggested to be train ferries, sea & rail or sea & rail & sea. It is suggested to develop diversified composite transportation means and routes within the boundary of international cooperation system.

Keywords: Eurasian Logistics, Integrated Distribution Transport, Northeast Asia, Transportation Networking

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Authors: Zainudin Arsad, Norul Baine Mat Johor

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Tourism industry is an important sector in Malaysia economy and this motivates the examination of long-run relationships between tourist arrivals from three selected European countries in Malaysia and four possible determinants; relative prices, exchange rates, transportation cost and relative prices of substitute destination. The study utilizes data from January 1999 to September 2008 and employs standard econometric techniques that include unit root test and cointegration test. The estimated demand model indicates that depreciation of local currency and increases in prices at substitute destination have positive impact on tourist arrivals while increase in transportation cost has negative impact on tourist arrivals. In addition, the model suggests that higher rate of increase in local prices relative to prices at tourist country of origin may not deter tourists from coming to Malaysia

Keywords: origin country, unit root test, cointegration test

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Authors: Ntloana Hlabishi Peter

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The availability of public transportation modes and qualitative infrastructure is a burning issue that affects urban sustainability. Public transportation is indispensable in providing adequate transportation means to people at an affordable price, and it promotes public transport reliance. Burgersfort town has a critical condition on the urban public transportation infrastructure which affects the bus and taxi public transport modes and the existing infrastructure. The municipality is regarded as one of the mining towns in Limpopo Province considering the availability of mining activities and proposal on establishment of a Special Economic Zone (SEZ). The study aim is to assess the efficacy of current public transportation infrastructure and to propose relevant recommendations that will unlock the possibility of future supportable public transportation systems. The Key Informant Interview (KII) was used to acquire data on the views from commuters and stakeholders involved. There KII incorporated three relevant questions in relation to services rendered in public transportation. Relevant literature relating to public transportation modes and infrastructure revealed the imperatives of public transportation infrastructure, and relevant legislation was reviewed concerning public transport infrastructure. The finding revealed poor conditions on the public transportation ranks and also inadequate parking space for public transportation modes. The study reveals that 100% of people interviewed were not satisfied with the condition of public transportation infrastructure and 100% are not satisfied with the services offered by public transportation sectors. The findings revealed that the municipality is the main player who can upgrade the existing conditions of public transportation. The study recommended that an intermodal transportation facility must be established to resolve the emerging challenges.

Keywords: Public transportation, modes, infrastructure, urban sustainability.

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Authors: Astiaj Khoramshahi, Hossein Ahmadi Danesh Ashtiani, Ahmad Khoshgard, Hamidreza Damghani, Leila Damghani

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Solar energy systems using various storages are required to be evaluated based on energy requirements and applications. Also, modeling and analysis of storage systems are necessary to increase the effectiveness of combinations of these systems. In this paper, analysis based on the MATLAB software has been analyzed to evaluate the response of the hybrid energy system considering various technologies of renewable energy and energy storage. In the present study, three different simulation scenarios are presented. Simulation output results using software for the first scenario show that the battery is effective in smoothing the overall power demand to the consumer studied during a day, but temporary loads on the grid with high frequencies, effectively cannot be canceled due to the limited response speed of battery control. Simulation outputs for the second scenario using the energy storage system show that sudden changes in demand power are paved by super saving. The majority of these sudden changes in power demand are caused by sewing consumers and receiving variable solar power (due to clouds passing through the solar array). Simulation outputs for the third scenario show the effects of the hybrid system for the same consumer and the output of the solar array, leading to the smallest amount of power demand fed into the grid, as well as demand at peak times. According to the "battery only" scenario, the displacement technique of the peak load has been significantly reduced.

Keywords: Storage system, super storage, standalone, microgrid.

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Authors: Mabel A. Leva

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This study defines a methodology to compute unitary costs for freight transportation modes. The main objective was to gather relevant costs data to support the formulation and evaluation of railway, road, pipelines and port projects. This article will concentrate on the following steps: Compilation and analysis of relevant modal cost studies, Methodological adjustments to make cost figures comparable between studies, Definition of typology and scope of transportation modes, Analysis and validation of cost values for relevant freight transportation modes in Chile. In order to define the comparison methodology for the costs between the different transportation modes, it was necessary to consider that the relevant cost depends on who performs the comparison. Thus, for the transportation user (e.g. exporter) the pertinent costs are the mode tariffs, whereas from the operators perspective (e.g. rail manager), the pertinent costs are the operating costs of each mode.

Keywords: Intermodal costs, Logistics, Transportation costs.

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Authors: E. Neidhardt

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Mobility, for many people, is an important factor in the satisfaction of daily needs and many people are dependent on public transport. In rural areas with a low population density, it is difficult to provide public transportation with sufficient coverage and frequency. Therefore, the available public transport is unattractive. As a result, people use their own car, which is not desirable from a sustainable point of view and not possible for children and elderly people. Sometimes people organize themselves and volunteer transport services are created. These services are similar to demand-oriented taxis. However, these transport services are usually independent from each other and from the available line-based public transport, limiting both their usability and sustainability. We have developed a platform to improve usability and sustainability by connecting the different demand-oriented transport offerings with the line-based public transport. The system was implemented and tested in a rural area in Germany, but the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic limited real live operation.

Keywords: demand-oriented, HubChain, living lab, public transport

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Authors: Praveen Kumar, Satish Kumar, Jashanpreet Singh

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Transportation of unrefined crude oil from the production unit to a refinery or large storage area by a pipeline is difficult due to the different properties of crude in various areas. Thus, the design of a crude oil pipeline is a very complex and time consuming process, when considering all the various parameters. There were three very important parameters that play a significant role in the transportation and processing pipeline design; these are: viscosity profile, temperature profile and the velocity profile of waxy crude oil through the crude oil pipeline. Knowledge of the Rheological computational technique is required for better understanding the flow behavior and predicting the flow profile in a crude oil pipeline. From these profile parameters, the material and the emulsion that is best suited for crude oil transportation can be predicted. Rheological computational fluid dynamic technique is a fast method used for designing flow profile in a crude oil pipeline with the help of computational fluid dynamics and rheological modeling. With this technique, the effect of fluid properties including shear rate range with temperature variation, degree of viscosity, elastic modulus and viscous modulus was evaluated under different conditions in a transport pipeline. In this paper, two crude oil samples was used, as well as a prepared emulsion with natural and synthetic additives, at different concentrations ranging from 1,000 ppm to 3,000 ppm. The rheological properties was then evaluated at a temperature range of 25 to 60 °C and which additive was best suited for transportation of crude oil is determined. Commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been used to generate the flow, velocity and viscosity profile of the emulsions for flow behavior analysis in crude oil transportation pipeline. This rheological CFD design can be further applied in developing designs of pipeline in the future.

Keywords: Natural surfactant, crude oil, rheology, CFD, viscosity.

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Authors: Yeqing Guan, Fen Yang

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To learn about China-s future energy demand, this paper first proposed GM(1,1) model group based on recursive solutions of parameters estimation, setting up a general solving-algorithm of the model group. This method avoided the problems occurred on the past researches that remodeling, loss of information and large amount of calculation. This paper established respectively all-data-GM(1,1), metabolic GM(1,1) and new information GM (1,1)model according to the historical data of energy consumption in China in the year 2005-2010 and the added data of 2011, then modeling, simulating and comparison of accuracies we got the optimal models and to predict. Results showed that the total energy demand of China will be 37.2221 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2012 and 39.7973 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2013, which are as the same as the overall planning of energy demand in The 12th Five-Year Plan.

Keywords: energy demands, GM(1, 1) model group, least square estimation, prediction

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Authors: Chil-Chyuan Kuo, Chen-Hsuan Tsai

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This study presents a cost-effective approach for rapid fabricating modeling platforms utilized in fused deposition modeling system. A small-batch production of modeling platforms about 20 pieces can be obtained economically through silicone rubber mold using vacuum casting without applying the plastic injection molding. The air venting systems is crucial for fabricating modeling platform using vacuum casting. Modeling platforms fabricated can be used for building rapid prototyping model after sandblasting. This study offers industrial value because it has both time-effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.

Keywords: Vacuum casting, fused deposition modeling, modeling platform, sandblasting, surface roughness.

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Authors: Md. Ashraful Islam, Rahat Sharif

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Chittagong is the Commercial Capital of Bangladesh. The study area at GEC in Chittagong is one of the most commercial activity centers of Chittagong. This paper first analyzes the parking demand of the commercial centers, based on the parking survey. Further, it analyzes the relationship between the parking demand of the commercial buildings and the public transport accessibility. The conclusion is that the parking demand rate of the shopping centre and supermarkets decreases with the increasing of the public transport accessibility. This paper also provides the parking demand rate under the different levels of the public transport accessibility and the parking demand model with the accessibility. The conclusions are valuable for the researches on the parking demand and the making of the parking index for the commercial buildings.

Keywords: Parking, accumulation, inventory, demand, supply, occupancy.

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Authors: Justice K. Owusu-Ansah, Kevin O'Connor

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This research explores the links between physical development and transportation infrastructure around Kumasi, Ghana. It utilizes census data as well as fieldwork and interviews carried out during July and December 2005. The results suggest that there is a weak association between transportation investments and physical development, and that recent housing has generally occurred in poorly accessible locations. Road investments have generally followed physical expansion rather than the reverse. Hence policies designed to manage the fast growth now occurring around Ghanaian cities should not focus exclusively on improving transportation infrastructure but also strengthening the underlying the traditional land management structures and the official land administrative institutions that operate within those structures.

Keywords: Housing, Kumasi, population, physical development, transportation, villages.

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Authors: Amin Eslami, Jafar Bolouri Bazaz

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Under active stress conditions, a rigid cantilever retaining wall tends to rotate about a pivot point located within the embedded depth of the wall. For purely granular and cohesive soils, a methodology was previously reported called minimization of moment ratio to determine the location of the pivot point of rotation. The usage of this new methodology is to estimate the rotational stability safety factor. Moreover, the degree of improvement required in a backfill to get a desired safety factor can be estimated by the concept of the shear strength demand. In this article, the accuracy of this method for another type of cantilever walls called Contiguous Bored Pile (CBP) retaining wall is evaluated by using physical modeling technique. Based on observations, the results of moment ratio minimization method are in good agreement with the results of the carried out physical modeling.

Keywords: Cantilever Retaining Wall, Physical Modeling, Minimization of Moment Ratio Method, Pivot Point.

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Authors: Kuntal Thakkar, Chaouki Ghenai, Ahmed Hachicha

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An integrated modeling approach was used in this study for energy planning and climate change mitigation assessment. The main objective of this study was to develop various green-house gas (GHG) mitigations scenarios in the energy demand and supply sectors for the state of Florida. The Long range energy alternative planning (LEAP) model was used in this study to examine the energy alternative and GHG emissions reduction scenarios for short and long term (2010-2050). One of the energy analysis and GHG mitigation scenarios was developed by taking into account the available renewable energy resources potential for power generation in the state of Florida. This will help to compare and analyze the GHG reduction measure against “Business As Usual” and ‘State of Florida Policy” scenarios. Two master scenarios: “Electrification” and “Energy efficiency and Lifestyle” were developed through combination of various mitigation scenarios: technological changes and energy efficiency and conservation. The results show a net reduction of the energy demand and GHG emissions by adopting these two energy scenarios compared to the business as usual.

Keywords: Integrated modeling, energy planning, climate change mitigation assessment, greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy, energy efficiency.

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Authors: Govind Sharan Dangayach, Himanshu Bhatt

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The paper attempts to overcome the fluctuations occurring in demand of the components in an automotive sector company. Resource and time being the strict constraints, the production is not able to match the pace of the fluctuating demand. So, we introduce some production schedules that help in meeting out the required demand. The merits and demerits of the approaches are also highlighted.

Keywords: Production scheduling, Demand rise, Capacity constrained resource (CCR), Overtime.

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Authors: Saurabh Chanana, Monika Arora

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Demand response is getting increased attention these days due to the increase in electricity demand and introduction of renewable resources in the existing power grid. Traditionally demand response programs involve large industrial consumers but with technological advancement, demand response is being implemented for small residential and commercial consumers also. In this paper, demand response program aims to reduce the peak demand as well as overall energy consumption of the residential customers. Air conditioners are the major reason of peak load in residential sector in summer, so a dynamic model of air conditioning load with thermostat action has been considered for applying demand response programs. A programmable communicating thermostat (PCT) is a device that uses real time pricing (RTP) signals to control the thermostat setting. A new model incorporating PCT in air conditioning load has been proposed in this paper. Results show that introduction of PCT in air conditioner is useful in reducing the electricity payments of customers as well as reducing the peak demand. 

Keywords: Demand response, Home energy management Programmable communicating thermostat, Thermostatically controlled appliances.

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Authors: Gia Surguladze, Lily Petriashvili, Nino Topuria, Giorgi Surguladze

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Modelling of building processes of a multimodal freight transportation support information system is discussed based on modern CASE technologies. Functional efficiencies of ports in the eastern part of the Black Sea are analyzed taking into account their ecological, seasonal, resource usage parameters. By resources, we mean capacities of berths, cranes, automotive transport, as well as work crews and neighbouring airports. For the purpose of designing database of computer support system for Managerial (Logistics) function, using Object-Role Modeling (ORM) tool (NORMA–Natural ORM Architecture) is proposed, after which Entity Relationship Model (ERM) is generated in automated process. Software is developed based on Process-Oriented and Service-Oriented architecture, in Visual Studio.NET environment.

Keywords: Seaport resources, business-processes, multimodal transportation, CASE technology, object-role model, entity relationship model, SOA.

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Authors: Pradip Peter Dey, Bhaskar Raj Sinha, Mohammad Amin, Hassan Badkoobehi

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Mathematical, graphical and intuitive models are often constructed in the development process of computational systems. The Unified Modeling Language (UML) is one of the most popular modeling languages used by practicing software engineers. This paper critically examines UML models and suggests an augmented use case view with the addition of new constructs for modeling software. It also shows how a use case diagram can be enhanced. The improved modeling constructs are presented with examples for clarifying important design and implementation issues.

Keywords: Software architecture, software design, Unified Modeling Language (UML), user interface.

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Authors: Huaiyu Zhang

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The method of modeling is the key technology for digital mockup (DMU). Based upon the developing for mechanical product DMU, the theory, method and approach for virtual environment (VE) and virtual object (VO) were studied. This paper has expounded the design goal and architecture of DMU system, analyzed the method of DMU application, and researched the general process of physics modeling and behavior modeling.

Keywords: DMU, VR, virtual environment, virtual object, physics modeling, behavior modeling

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Authors: Erisasadat Sahebzamani, Núria Forcada, Francisco Lendinez

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Global climate change has become increasingly problematic over the past few decades. The construction industry has contributed to greenhouse gas emissions in recent decades. Considering these issues and the high demand for materials in the construction industry, Circular Economy (CE) is considered necessary to keep materials in the loop and extend their useful lives. By providing tangible benefits, Construction 4.0 facilitates the adoption of CE by reducing waste, updating standard work, sharing knowledge, and increasing transparency and stability. This study aims to present a framework for integrating CE and digital tools like Building Information Modeling (BIM) and Virtual Reality (VR) to examine the impact on the construction industry based on stakeholders' perspectives.

Keywords: Circular Economy, Building Information Modeling, Virtual Reality, stakeholder engagement.

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Authors: Yudha Prambudia, Masaru Nakano

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Due to rapid economic growth, Indonesia's energy needs is rapidly increasing. Indonesia-s primary energy consumption has doubled in 2007 compared to 2003. Indonesia's status change from oil net-exporter to oil net-importer country recently has increased Indonesia's concern over energy security. Due to this, oil import becomes center of attention in the dynamics of Indonesia's energy security. Conventional studies addressing Indonesia's energy security have focused on energy production sector. This study explores Indonesia-s energy security considering energy import sector by modeling and simulating Indonesia-s energy-related policies using system dynamics. Simulation result of Indonesia's energy security in 2020 in Business-As-Usual scenario shows that in term of supply demand ratio, energy security will be very high, but also it poses high dependence on energy import. The Alternative scenario result shows lower energy security in term of supply demand ratio and much lower dependence on energy import. It is also found that the Alternative scenario produce lower GDP growth.

Keywords: Energy security, modeling, simulation, system dynamics.

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Authors: Hui Hsin Huang

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The downstream manufactures will order their materials from different upstream suppliers to maintain a certain level of the demand. This paper proposes a bivariate model to portray this phenomenon of material demand. We use empirical data to estimate the parameters of model and evaluate the RMSD of model calibration. The results show that the model has better fitness.

Keywords: Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern family of bivariate distributions, multi-source ordering, materials demand quantity, recency, ordering time.

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Authors: K. Ishii, T. Furuichi, A. Fujiyama, S. Hariya

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Rice straw pellets are a promising fuel as a renewable energy source. Financial analysis is needed to make a utilization system using rise straw pellets financially feasible, considering all regional conditions including stakeholders related to the collection and storage, production, transportation and heat utilization. We conducted the financial analysis of feasibility for a heat utilization system using rice straw pellets which has been developed for the first time in Nanporo, Hokkaido, Japan. Especially, we attempted to clarify the effect of factors required for the system to be financial feasibility, such as the heating energy demand and collection and storage method of rice straw. The financial feasibility was found to improve when increasing the heating energy demand and collecting wheat straw in August separately from collection of rice straw in November because the costs of storing rice straw and producing pellets were reduced. However, the system remained financially unfeasible. This study proposed a contractor program funded by a subsidy from Nanporo local government where a contracted company, instead of farmers, collects and transports rice straw in order to ensure the financial feasibility of the system, contributing to job creation in the region.

Keywords: Rice straw, pellets, heating energy demand, collection, storage.

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Authors: Ahmed, M., Yasser A., Mahmoud H., Ahmed, A., Abdulla M. S., Nazar, S.

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Strut-and-Tie Models (STM) for the design of concrete beams, comprising of struts, ties, nodes as the basic tools, is conceptually simple, but its realization for complex concrete structure is not straightforward and depends on flow of internal forces in the structure. STM technique has won wide acceptance for deep member and shear design. STM technique is a unified approach that considers all load effects (bending, axial, shear, and torsion) simultaneously, not just applicable to shear loading only. The present study is to portray Strut-and-Tie Modeling based on Load-Transfer-Mechanisms as a unified method to analyze, design and detailing for deep and slender concrete beams. Three shear span- effective depth ratio (a/ d) are recommended for the modeling of STM elements corresponding to dominant load paths. The study also discusses the research work conduct on effective stress of concrete, tie end anchorage, and transverse reinforcement demand under different load transfer mechanism. It is also highlighted that to make the STM versatile tool for design of beams applicable to all shear spans, the effective stress of concrete and, transverse reinforcement demand, inclined angle of strut, and anchorage requirements of tie bars is required to be correlated with respect to load transfer mechanism. The country code provisions are to be modified and updated to apply for generalized design of concrete deep and slender member using load transfer mechanism based STM technique. Examples available in literature are reanalyzed with refined STM based on load transfer mechanisms and results are compared. It is concluded from the results that proposed approach will require true reinforcement demand depending on dominant force transfer action in concrete beam.

Keywords: Deep member, Load transfer mechanism, Strut-and-Tie Model, Strut, Truss.

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Authors: Anqi Wang, Linye Zhang

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With the proliferation and development of mobile devices, various mobile apps have appeared to satisfy people’s needs. Metro, with the feature of convenient, punctuality and economic, is one of the most popular modes of transportation in cities. Yet, there are still some inconveniences brought by various factors, impacting tourists’ riding experience. The aim of this study is to help tourists to shorten the time of purchasing tickets, to provide them clear metro information and direct navigation, detailed schedule as well as a way to collect metro cards as souvenir. The study collects data through three phases, including observation, survey and test. Data collected from 106 tourists totally in Wuhan metro stations are discussed in the study. The result reflects tourists’ demand when they take the metro. It also indicates the feasibility of using mobile technology to improve passenger’s experience.

Keywords: Mobile App, metro, public transportation, ticket, mobile payment, indoors positioning, tourists.

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Authors: Ferdi Sönmez, Nihal Yorulmaz

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Decision making on the true planning of the public transportation systems to serve potential users is a must for metropolitan areas. To take attraction of travelers to projected modes of transport, adequately fair overall travel times should be provided. In this fashion, other benefits such as lower traffic congestion, road safety and lower noise and atmospheric pollution may be earned. The congestion which comes with increasing demand of public transportation is becoming a part of our lives and making residents’ life difficult. Hence, regulations should be done to reduce this congestion. To provide a constructive and balanced regulation in public transportation systems, right stations should be located in right places. In this study, it is aimed to design and implement a Decision Support System (DSS) Application to determine the optimal bus stop places for public transport in Istanbul which is one of the biggest and oldest cities in the world. Required information is gathered from IETT (Istanbul Electricity, Tram and Tunnel) Enterprises which manages all public transportation services in Istanbul Metropolitan Area. By using the most real-like values, cost assignments are made. The cost is calculated with the help of equations produced by bi-level optimization model. For this study, 300 buses, 300 drivers, 10 lines and 110 stops are used. The user cost of each station and the operator cost taken place in lines are calculated. Some components like cost, security and noise pollution are considered as significant factors affecting the solution of set covering problem which is mentioned for identifying and locating the minimum number of possible bus stops. Preliminary research and model development for this study refers to previously published article of the corresponding author. Model results are represented with the intent of decision support to the specialists on locating stops effectively.

Keywords: User cost, bi-level optimization model, decision support, operator cost, transportation.

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Authors: B. Skrabic, N. Tomic-Plazibat

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In this paper real money demand function is analyzed within multivariate time-series framework. Cointegration approach is used (Johansen procedure) assuming interdependence between money demand determinants, which are nonstationary variables. This will help us to understand the behavior of money demand in Croatia, revealing the significant influence between endogenous variables in vector autoregrression system (VAR), i.e. vector error correction model (VECM). Exogeneity of the explanatory variables is tested. Long-run money demand function is estimated indicating slow speed of adjustment of removing the disequilibrium. Empirical results provide the evidence that real industrial production and exchange rate explains the most variations of money demand in the long-run, while interest rate is significant only in short-run.

Keywords: Cointegration, Long-run equilibrium, Money demand function, Vector error correction model.

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Authors: Amir Azizi, Amir Yazid B. Ali, Loh Wei Ping

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Throughput is an important measure of performance of production system. Analyzing and modeling of production throughput is complex in today-s dynamic production systems due to uncertainties of production system. The main reasons are that uncertainties are materialized when the production line faces changes in setup time, machinery break down, lead time of manufacturing, and scraps. Besides, demand changes are fluctuating from time to time for each product type. These uncertainties affect the production performance. This paper proposes Bayesian inference for throughput modeling under five production uncertainties. Bayesian model utilized prior distributions related to previous information about the uncertainties where likelihood distributions are associated to the observed data. Gibbs sampling algorithm as the robust procedure of Monte Carlo Markov chain was employed for sampling unknown parameters and estimating the posterior mean of uncertainties. The Bayesian model was validated with respect to convergence and efficiency of its outputs. The results presented that the proposed Bayesian models were capable to predict the production throughput with accuracy of 98.3%.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, Uncertainty modeling, Monte Carlo Markov chain, Gibbs sampling, Production throughput

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Authors: Marco E. O. Jardim, Frederico A. M. Souza, Valeria M. Bastos, Myrian C. A. Costa, Nelson F. F. Ebecken

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Urban public transportation in Rio de Janeiro is based on bus lines, powered by diesel, and four limited metro lines that support only some neighborhoods. This work presents an infrastructure built to better understand microclimate variations related to massive urban transportation in some specific areas of the city. The use of sensor nodes with small analytics capacity provides environmental information to population or public services. The analyses of data collected from a few small sensors positioned near some heavy traffic streets show the harmful impact due to poor bus route plan.

Keywords: Big data, IoT, public transportation, public health system.

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