Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 32131
Scenario Analysis of Indonesia's Energy Security by using a System-Dynamics Approach

Authors: Yudha Prambudia, Masaru Nakano


Due to rapid economic growth, Indonesia's energy needs is rapidly increasing. Indonesia-s primary energy consumption has doubled in 2007 compared to 2003. Indonesia's status change from oil net-exporter to oil net-importer country recently has increased Indonesia's concern over energy security. Due to this, oil import becomes center of attention in the dynamics of Indonesia's energy security. Conventional studies addressing Indonesia's energy security have focused on energy production sector. This study explores Indonesia-s energy security considering energy import sector by modeling and simulating Indonesia-s energy-related policies using system dynamics. Simulation result of Indonesia's energy security in 2020 in Business-As-Usual scenario shows that in term of supply demand ratio, energy security will be very high, but also it poses high dependence on energy import. The Alternative scenario result shows lower energy security in term of supply demand ratio and much lower dependence on energy import. It is also found that the Alternative scenario produce lower GDP growth.

Keywords: Energy security, modeling, simulation, system dynamics.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI):

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1962


[1] ADB, 2009a. Asian Development Outlook 2009 Update: Broadening Openness for a Resilient Asia.
[2] ADB, 2009b, Energy Statistics in Asia and the Pacific.
[3] Affeldt J.F., Hamilton B.A., 2006, The application of system dynamics (SD) simulation to volatile system management, Proceeding: The 24th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Nijmegen.
[4] Alhajji, A.F., James L. Williams, 2003. Measures of Petroleum Dependence and Vulnerability in OECD Countries. Middle East Economic Survey, 46:16, accessed: 20 February 2010.
[5] APERC, 2009, APEC Energy Overview 2008.
[6] APO, 2009, APO Productivity Databook 2009.
[7] Atje, R and Hapsari, I., 2008, Energy Security: An Indonesian Perspective, Vision from Asia and Europe.
[8] BP. 2008. BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
[9] Chester, L., 2009, Conceptualising energy security and making explicit its polysemic nature. Energy Policy.
[10] EU Commision Council Directive 2006/67/EC retrieved from http://ec. Htm
[11] Kruyt, B., van Vuuren, D.P., de Vries, H.J.M., Groenenberg H., 2009, Indicators for energy security .Energy Policy, 37 (2009) 2166-2181
[12] Lardic, S., Mignon, V, 2006, The impact of oil prices on GDP in European countries An empirical investigation based on asymmetric cointegration, Energy Policy Vol.34.
[13] Lee, C, 2005, Energy consumption and GDP in developingcountries: A cointegrated panel analysis, Energy Economics.
[14] Lee, C, Chang C, 2008, Energy consumption and economic growth in Asian economies: A more comprehensive analysis using panel data, Resource and Energy Economics.
[15] Radzicki M.J., Taylor R.A., 2010, "Origin of System Dynamics: Jay W. Forrester and the History of System Dynamics". In: U.S. Department of Energy's Introduction to System Dynamics. accessed 19 June 2010.
[16] Sovacool, Benjamin K., Brown, Marilyn A., 2009, Competing Dimensions of Energy Security: An International Perspective. Working Paper #45, Ivan Allen College School of Public Policy, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta.
[17] Scheepers, M.J.J., Seebregts, A.J., de Jong, J.J., Maters, J.M., 2007. EU Standards for Energy Security of Supply-Updates on the Crisis Capability Index and the Supply/Demand Index Quantification for EU-27. ECN-E-07-004.
[18] The Central Bank of Republic of Indonesia, 2006, Oil Dependency and Energy Policy in Indonesia, Working Paper WP/10/2006.
[19] United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), 2005, Capability Building For Catching-Up: Historical, Empirical And Policy Dimensions. Industrial Development Report. United Nations
[20] Von Hippel D., Suzuki T., Williams J.H., Savage T., Hayes P., 2009, Energy security and sustainability in Northeast Asia. Energy Policy,.
[21] Winz I., Brierley G., Trowsdale S., 20069, The Use of System Dynamics Simulation in Water Resource Management. Water Resource Management.