Search results for: renewable energy load forecasting

Authors: Shafiq R. Qureshi, Syed Noman Danish, Muhammad Saeed Khalid

Abstract:

Fossil fuels are the major source to meet the world energy requirements but its rapidly diminishing rate and adverse effects on our ecological system are of major concern. Renewable energy utilization is the need of time to meet the future challenges. Ocean energy is the one of these promising energy resources. Threefourths of the earth-s surface is covered by the oceans. This enormous energy resource is contained in the oceans- waters, the air above the oceans, and the land beneath them. The renewable energy source of ocean mainly is contained in waves, ocean current and offshore solar energy. Very fewer efforts have been made to harness this reliable and predictable resource. Harnessing of ocean energy needs detail knowledge of underlying mathematical governing equation and their analysis. With the advent of extra ordinary computational resources it is now possible to predict the wave climatology in lab simulation. Several techniques have been developed mostly stem from numerical analysis of Navier Stokes equations. This paper presents a brief over view of such mathematical model and tools to understand and analyze the wave climatology. Models of 1st, 2nd and 3rd generations have been developed to estimate the wave characteristics to assess the power potential. A brief overview of available wave energy technologies is also given. A novel concept of on-shore wave energy extraction method is also presented at the end. The concept is based upon total energy conservation, where energy of wave is transferred to the flexible converter to increase its kinetic energy. Squeezing action by the external pressure on the converter body results in increase velocities at discharge section. High velocity head then can be used for energy storage or for direct utility of power generation. This converter utilizes the both potential and kinetic energy of the waves and designed for on-shore or near-shore application. Increased wave height at the shore due to shoaling effects increases the potential energy of the waves which is converted to renewable energy. This approach will result in economic wave energy converter due to near shore installation and more dense waves due to shoaling. Method will be more efficient because of tapping both potential and kinetic energy of the waves.

Keywords: Energy Utilizing, Wave Shoaling Phenomenon

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Authors: I. Falconett, K. Nagasaka

Abstract:

This study investigates the performance of radial basis function networks (RBFN) in forecasting the monthly CO2 emissions of an electric power utility. We also propose a method for input variable selection. This method is based on identifying the general relationships between groups of input candidates and the output. The effect that each input has on the forecasting error is examined by removing all inputs except the variable to be investigated from its group, calculating the networks parameter and performing the forecast. Finally, the new forecasting error is compared with the reference model. Eight input variables were identified as the most relevant, which is significantly less than our reference model with 30 input variables. The simulation results demonstrate that the model with the 8 inputs selected using the method introduced in this study performs as accurate as the reference model, while also being the most parsimonious.

Keywords: Correlation analysis, CO2 emissions forecasting, electric power utility, radial basis function networks.

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Authors: Hakim S. Sultan Aljibori

Abstract:

Effect of geometry on crushing behavior, energy absorption and failure mode of woven roving jute fiber/epoxy laminated composite tubes were experimentally studied. Investigations were carried out on three different geometrical types of composite tubes (circular, square and radial corrugated) subjected to axial compressive loading. It was observed in axial crushing study that the load bearing capability is significantly influenced by corrugation geometry. The influence of geometries of specimens was supported by the plotted load – displacement curves of the tests.

Keywords: Crushing behavior, jute fiber, composite tubes andSpecific energy absorption

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present a Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy System (ANFIS) with inputs the lagged dependent variable for the prediction of Gross domestic Product growth rate in six countries. We compare the results with those of Autoregressive (AR) model. We conclude that the forecasting performance of neuro-fuzzy-system in the out-of-sample period is much more superior and can be a very useful alternative tool used by the national statistical services and the banking and finance industry.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Forecasting, Gross DomesticProduct, Neuro-Fuzzy

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Authors: Chunshien Li, Jhao-Wun Hu, Tai-Wei Chiang, Tsunghan Wu

Abstract:

Time series forecasting is an important and widely popular topic in the research of system modeling. This paper describes how to use the hybrid PSO-RLSE neuro-fuzzy learning approach to the problem of time series forecasting. The PSO algorithm is used to update the premise parameters of the proposed prediction system, and the RLSE is used to update the consequence parameters. Thanks to the hybrid learning (HL) approach for the neuro-fuzzy system, the prediction performance is excellent and the speed of learning convergence is much faster than other compared approaches. In the experiments, we use the well-known Mackey-Glass chaos time series. According to the experimental results, the prediction performance and accuracy in time series forecasting by the proposed approach is much better than other compared approaches, as shown in Table IV. Excellent prediction performance by the proposed approach has been observed.

Keywords: forecasting, hybrid learning (HL), Neuro-FuzzySystem (NFS), particle swarm optimization (PSO), recursiveleast-squares estimator (RLSE), time series

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Authors: Stephanie Fabris Russo, Daiane Costa Guimarães, Jonas Pedro Fabris, Maria Emilia Camargo, Suzana Leitão Russo, José Augusto Andrade Filho

Abstract:

Among renewable energy sources, solar energy is the one that has stood out. Solar radiation can be used as a thermal energy source and can also be converted into electricity by means of effects on certain materials, such as thermoelectric and photovoltaic panels. These panels are often used to generate energy in homes, buildings, arenas, etc., and have low pollution emissions. Thus, a technological prospecting was performed to find patents related to the use of photovoltaic plates in urban residences. The patent search was based on ESPACENET, associating the keywords photovoltaic and home, where we found 136 patent documents in the period of 1994-2015 in the fields title and abstract. Note that the years 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 had the highest number of applicants, with respectively, 11, 13, 23, 29, 15 and 21. Regarding the country that deposited about this technology, it is clear that China leads with 67 patent deposits, followed by Japan with 38 patents applications. It is important to note that most depositors, 50% are companies, 44% are individual inventors and only 6% are universities. On the International Patent classification (IPC) codes, we noted that the most present classification in results was H02J3/38, which represents provisions in parallel to feed a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers. Among all categories, there is the H session, which means Electricity, with 70% of the patents.

Keywords: Prospecting, technology forecasting, photovoltaic, urban residences.

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Authors: J. Levodo, A. Ford, I. Chaer

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Africa enjoys some of the best solar radiation levels in the world averaging between 4-6 kWh/m2/day for most of the year and the global economic and political conditions that tend to make African countries more dependent on their own energy resources have caused growing interest in renewable energy based technologies. However to-date, implementation of modern Energy Technologies in Africa is still very low especially the use of solar conversion technologies. This paper presents literature review and analysis relating to the techno-economic feasibility of solar photovoltaic power generation in Africa. The literature is basically classified into the following four main categories. Techno-economic feasibility of solar photovoltaic power generation, design methods, performance evaluations of various systems and policy of potential future of technological development of photovoltaic (PV) in Africa by exploring the impact of alternative policy instruments and technology cost reductions on the financial viability of investing solar photovoltaic in Africa.

Keywords: Africa Solar Potential, Policy, Photovoltaic, Technologies.

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Authors: Farid Vahedi

Abstract:

There is a great deal of interest in constructing Double Skin Facade (DSF) structures which are considered as modern movement in field of Energy Conservation, renewable energies, and Architecture design. This trend provides many conclusive alternatives which are frequently associated with sustainable building. In this paper a building with Double Skin Facade is considered in the semiarid climate of Tehran, Iran, in order to consider the DSF-s performance during hot seasons. Mathematical formulations calculate solar heat gain by the external skin. Moreover, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations were performed on the case study building to enhance effectiveness of the facade. The conclusion divulged difference of gained energy by the cavity and room with and without blind and louvers. Some solutions were introduced to surge the performance of natural ventilation by plunging the cooling loads in summer.

Keywords: Double Skin Façade Buildings, Energy Conservation, Renewable Energy, Natural Ventilation, Semi-arid Climate.

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Authors: Elfetori F. Abdewi

Abstract:

This paper presents the effect of corrugation profile geometry on the crushing behavior, energy absorption, failure mechanism, and failure mode of woven roving glass fibre/epoxy laminated composite tube. Experimental investigations were carried out on composite tubes with three different profile shapes: sinusoidal, triangular and trapezoidal. The tubes were subjected to lateral compressive loading. On the addition to a radial corrugated composite tube, cylindrical composite tube, were fabricated and tested under the same condition in order to know the effect of corrugation geometry. Typical histories of their deformation are presented. Behavior of tubes as regards the peak crushing load, energy absorbed and mode of crushing has been discussed. The results show that the behavior of the tube under lateral compression load is influenced by the geometry of the tube itself.

Keywords: Corrugated composite specimens, Energy absorption, Lateral crushing.

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Authors: Jerome T. Tolentino, Ma. Victoria Rejuso, Jara Kaye Villanueva, Loureal Camille Inocencio, Ma. Rosario Concepcion O. Ang

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Wind energy is rapidly emerging as the primary source of electricity in the Philippines, although developing an accurate wind resource model is difficult. In this study, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, an open source mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, was used to produce a 1-year atmospheric simulation with 4 km resolution on the Ilocos Region of the Philippines. The WRF output (netCDF) extracts the annual mean wind speed data using a Python-based Graphical User Interface. Lastly, wind resource assessment was produced using a GIS software. Results of the study showed that it is more flexible to use Python scripts than using other post-processing tools in dealing with netCDF files. Using WRF Model, Python, and Geographic Information Systems, a reliable wind resource map is produced.

Keywords: Wind resource assessment, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, python, GIS software.

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Authors: Fariba Shavakhi Zavareh, Hadi Fotoohabadi, Reza Sedaghati

Abstract:

Due to the continuous increment of the load demand, identification of weaker buses, improvement of voltage profile and power losses in the context of the voltage stability problems has become one of the major concerns for the larger, complex, interconnected power systems. The objective of this paper is to review the impact of Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) controller in Wind generators connected electrical network for maintaining voltage stability. Wind energy could be the growing renewable energy due to several advantages. The influence of wind generators on power quality is a significant issue; non uniform power production causes variations in system voltage and frequency. Therefore, wind farm requires high reactive power compensation; the advances in high power semiconducting devices have led to the development of FACTS. The FACTS devices such as for example SVC inject reactive power into the system which helps in maintaining a better voltage profile. The performance is evaluated on an IEEE 14 bus system, two wind generators are connected at low voltage buses to meet the increased load demand and SVC devices are integrated at the buses with wind generators to keep voltage stability. Power flows, nodal voltage magnitudes and angles of the power network are obtained by iterative solutions using MIPOWER.

Keywords: Voltage Profile, FACTS Device, SVC, Distributed Generation.

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Authors: N. Dizadji, P. Entezar, A. Shabani

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This study presents energy saving in general-purpose pumps widely used in industrial applications. Such pumps are normally driven by a constant-speed electrical motor which in most applications must support varying load conditions. This is equivalent to saying the loading conditions mismatch the designed optimal energy consumption requirements of the intended application thus resulting in substantial energy losses. In the held experiments it was indicated that combination of mechanical and electrical speed drives can contribute to lower energy consumption in the pump without negatively distorting the required performance indices of a typical centrifugal pump at substantially lower energy consumption. The registered energy savings were recorded to be within the 15-40% margin. It was also indicated that although VSDs are installed at a cost, the financial burden is balanced against the earnings resulting from the associated energy savings.

Keywords: Industrial motors, Pumps, Energy consumption, Energy savings, Variable speed drive.

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Authors: V. Karri, W. K. Yap, J. Titchen

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A renewable energy system discussed in this paper is a stand-alone wind-hydrogen system for a remote island in Australia. The analysis of an existing wind-diesel power system was performed. Simulation technique was used to model the power system currently employed on the island, and simulated different configurations of additional hydrogen energy system. This study aims to determine the suitable hydrogen integrated configuration to setting up the prototype system for the island, which helps to reduce the diesel consumption on the island. A set of configurations for the hydrogen system and associated parameters that consists of wind turbines, electrolysers, hydrogen internal combustion engines, and storage tanks has been purposed. The simulation analyses various configurations that perfectly balances the system to meet the demand on the island.

Keywords: Hydrogen power systems, hydrogen internal combustion engine, modeling and simulation of hydrogen power systems.

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Authors: Zviad Ghadua, Biswa Bhattacharya

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The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides the rainfall amount of a given duration necessary to cause flooding. The approach is based on the development of rainfall-runoff curves, which helps us to find out the rainfall amount that would cause flooding. An alternative approach, mostly experimented with Italian Alpine catchments, is based on determining threshold discharges from past events and on finding whether or not an oncoming flood has its magnitude more than some critical discharge thresholds found beforehand. Both approaches suffer from large uncertainties in forecasting flash floods as, due to the simplistic approach followed, the same rainfall amount may or may not cause flooding. This uncertainty leads to the question whether a probabilistic model is preferable over a deterministic one in forecasting flash floods. We propose the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach in flash flood forecasting. A prior probability of flooding is derived based on historical data. Additional information, such as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and rainfall amount over any rainfall thresholds are used in computing the likelihood of observing these conditions given a flash flood has occurred. Finally, the posterior probability of flooding is computed using the prior probability and the likelihood. The variation of the computed posterior probability with rainfall amount and AMC presents the suitability of the approach in decision making in an uncertain environment. The methodology has been applied to the Posina basin in Italy. From the promising results obtained, we can conclude that the Bayesian approach in flash flood forecasting provides more realistic forecasting over the FFG.

Keywords: Flash flood, Bayesian, flash flood guidance, FFG, forecasting, Posina.

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Authors: Jheng-Long Wu, Pei-Chann Chang, Yi-Fang Pan

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This research focus on developing a new segmentation method for improving forecasting model which is call trend based segmentation method (TBSM). Generally, the piece-wise linear representation (PLR) can finds some of pair of trading points is well for time series data, but in the complicated stock environment it is not well for stock forecasting because of the stock has more trends of trading. If we consider the trends of trading in stock price for the trading signal which it will improve the precision of forecasting model. Therefore, a TBSM with SVR model used to detect the trading points for various stocks of Taiwanese and America under different trend tendencies. The experimental results show our trading system is more profitable and can be implemented in real time of stock market

Keywords: Trend based segmentation method, support vector machine, turning detection, stock forecasting.

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Authors: Ali M. Alakeel

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Load balancing in distributed computer systems is the process of redistributing the work load among processors in the system to improve system performance. Most of previous research in using fuzzy logic for the purpose of load balancing has only concentrated in utilizing fuzzy logic concepts in describing processors load and tasks execution length. The responsibility of the fuzzy-based load balancing process itself, however, has not been discussed and in most reported work is assumed to be performed in a distributed fashion by all nodes in the network. This paper proposes a new fuzzy dynamic load balancing algorithm for homogenous distributed systems. The proposed algorithm utilizes fuzzy logic in dealing with inaccurate load information, making load distribution decisions, and maintaining overall system stability. In terms of control, we propose a new approach that specifies how, when, and by which node the load balancing is implemented. Our approach is called Centralized-But-Distributed (CBD).

Keywords: Dynamic load balancing, fuzzy logic, distributed systems, algorithm.

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Authors: R. Chedid, R. Ghajar

Abstract:

Lebanon electricity crisis continues to escalate. Rationing hours still apply across the country but with different rates. The capital Beirut is subjected to 3 hours cut while other cities, town and villages may endure 9 to 14 hours of power shortage. To mitigate this situation, private diesel generators distributed illegally all over the country are being used to bridge the gap in power supply. Almost each building in large cities has its own generator and individual villages may have more than one generator supplying their loads. These generators together with their private networks form incomplete and ill-designed and managed microgrids (MG) but can be further developed to become renewable energy-based MG operating in island- or grid-connected modes. This paper will analyze the potential of introducing MG to help resolve the energy crisis in Lebanon. It will investigate the usefulness of developing MG under the prevailing situation of existing private power supply service providers and in light of the developed national energy policy that supports renewable energy development. A case study on a distribution feeder in a rural area will be analyzed using HOMER software to demonstrate the usefulness of introducing photovoltaic (PV) arrays along the existing diesel generators for all the stakeholders; namely, the developers, the customers, the utility and the community at large. Policy recommendations regarding MG development in Lebanon will be presented on the basis of the accumulated experience in private generation and the privatization and public-private partnership laws.

Keywords: Decentralized systems, microgrids, distributed generation, renewable energy.

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Authors: S. N. Vijayan, S. Sendhil Kumar

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Recent years have an upward trend in the research of renewable energy sector, due to the low availability of resources and huge consumption of conventional energies. Considerable renewable energy can be achieved from the available solar power with the utilization of collecting systems. Parabolic trough concentrating collector systems are mostly used to utilize maximum availability of solar power. This paper reviews the contributing factors for the overall performance of parabolic trough collectors. Its performance depends on the operating parameters such as the type of receiver and the collector material, medium of heat transfer, type of application and various climatic conditions.

Keywords: Solar radiation, parabolic trough collector, thermal analysis, efficiency.

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Authors: N. J. Imu, N. Rabbani, Md E. Hossain

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Achieving national climate goals requires transforming the energy system and increasing the use of renewable energy in Bangladesh as renewable energy offers an environmentally friendly energy supply. In view of this, Bangladesh has set a goal of 100% renewable power generation by 2050. Among all the renewable energy, solar is the most effective and popular source of renewable energy in Bangladesh. In order to build up on-grid and off-grid solar systems to increase energy transformation, monocrystalline type (highly efficient) solar module, and the polycrystalline type (low-efficient) solar module are commonly used. Due to their low price and availability, polycrystalline-type solar modules dominated the local market in the past years. However, in recent times the use of monocrystalline types modules has increased considerably owing to the significant decrease in price difference that existed between these two modules. Despite the deployment of both mono- and poly-crystalline modules in the market, the proliferation of low-quality solar panels are dominating the market resulting in reduced generation of solar electricity than expected. This situation is further aggravated by insufficient information regarding the effect of solar irradiation on solar module performance in relation to the quality of the materials used for the production of the module. This research aims to evaluate the efficiency of monocrystalline and polycrystalline solar modules that are available in Bangladesh by considering seasonal variations. Both types of solar modules have been tested for three different capacities 45W, 60W, and 100W in Dhaka regions to evaluate their power generation capability under Standard Test Conditions (STC). Module testing data were recorded twelve months in a full year from January to December. Data for solar irradiation were collected using HT304N while HT I-V400 multifunction instrument was used for testing voltage and current of photovoltaic (PV) systems and complete power quality analyzer. Results obtained in this study indicated differences between the efficiencies of polycrystalline and monocrystalline solar modules under the country’s solar irradiation. The average efficiencies of 45W, 60W, and 100W monocrystalline solar panels were recorded as 11.73%, 13.41%, and 15.37% respectively while for polycrystalline panels were 8.66%, 9.37%, and 12.34%. Monocrystalline solar panels, which offer greater working output than polycrystalline ones, are also represented by the Pearson Correlation value. The output of polycrystalline solar panels fluctuated highly with the changes in irradiation and temperature whereas monocrystalline panels were much stable.

Keywords: Solar energy, solar irradiation, efficiency, polycrystalline solar module, monocrystalline solar module, SPSS analysis.

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Authors: M Ahmadigorji, A. Abbaspour, A Rajabi-Ghahnavieh, M. Fotuhi- Firuzabad

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DG application has received increasing attention during recent years. The impact of DG on various aspects of distribution system operation, such as reliability and energy loss, depend highly on DG location in distribution feeder. Optimal DG placement is an important subject which has not been fully discussed yet. This paper presents an optimization method to determine optimal DG placement, based on a cost/worth analysis approach. This method considers technical and economical factors such as energy loss, load point reliability indices and DG costs, and particularly, portability of DG. The proposed method is applied to a test system and the impacts of different parameters such as load growth rate and load forecast uncertainty (LFU) on optimum DG location are studied.

Keywords: Distributed generation, optimal placement, cost/worthanalysis, customer interruption cost, Dynamic programming

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Authors: Yang Zhang, Yuncai Liu

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Accurately predicting non-peak traffic is crucial to daily traffic for all forecasting models. In the paper, least squares support vector machines (LS-SVMs) are investigated to solve such a practical problem. It is the first time to apply the approach and analyze the forecast performance in the domain. For comparison purpose, two parametric and two non-parametric techniques are selected because of their effectiveness proved in past research. Having good generalization ability and guaranteeing global minima, LS-SVMs perform better than the others. Providing sufficient improvement in stability and robustness reveals that the approach is practically promising.

Keywords: Parametric and Nonparametric Techniques, Non-peak Traffic Forecasting

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Authors: Sandeep Sharma, Sarabjit Singh, Meenakshi Sharma

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Load balancing is the process of improving the performance of a parallel and distributed system through a redistribution of load among the processors [1] [5]. In this paper we present the performance analysis of various load balancing algorithms based on different parameters, considering two typical load balancing approaches static and dynamic. The analysis indicates that static and dynamic both types of algorithm can have advancements as well as weaknesses over each other. Deciding type of algorithm to be implemented will be based on type of parallel applications to solve. The main purpose of this paper is to help in design of new algorithms in future by studying the behavior of various existing algorithms.

Keywords: Load balancing (LB), workload, distributed systems, Static Load balancing, Dynamic Load Balancing

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Authors: Huey-Kuo Chen

Abstract:

Travel demand forecasting including four travel choices, i.e., trip generation, trip distribution, modal split and traffic assignment constructs the core of transportation planning. In its current application, travel demand forecasting has associated with three important issues, i.e., interface inconsistencies among four travel choices, inefficiency of commonly used solution algorithms, and undesirable multiple path solutions. In this paper, each of the three issues is extensively elaborated. An ideal unified framework for the combined model consisting of the four travel choices and variable demand functions is also suggested. Then, a few remarks are provided in the end of the paper

Keywords: Travel choices, B algorithm, entropy maximization, dynamic traffic assignment.

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Authors: M. Tamilarasi, T.G. Palanivelu

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Mobile Ad Hoc Networks (MANETs) are multi-hop wireless networks in which all nodes cooperatively maintain network connectivity. In such a multi-hop wireless network, every node may be required to perform routing in order to achieve end-to-end communication among nodes. These networks are energy constrained as most ad hoc mobile nodes today operate with limited battery power. Hence, it is important to minimize the energy consumption of the entire network in order to maximize the lifetime of ad hoc networks. In this paper, a mechanism involving the integration of load balancing approach and transmission power control approach is introduced to maximize the life-span of MANETs. The mechanism is applied on Ad hoc On-demand Vector (AODV) protocol to make it as energy aware AODV (EA_AODV). The simulation is carried out using GloMoSim2.03 simulator. The results show that the proposed mechanism reduces the average required transmission energy per packet compared to the standard AODV.

Keywords: energy aware routing, load balance, Mobile Ad HocNetworks, MANETs , on demand routing, transmission power control.

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Authors: Farhan Beg, Raymond Moberly

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The Indian subcontinent is facing a massive challenge with regards to energy security in its member countries; to provide reliable electricity to facilitate development across various sectors of the economy and consequently achieve the developmental targets. The instability of the current precarious situation is observable in the frequent system failures and blackouts.

The deployment of interconnected electricity ‘Supergrid’ designed to carry huge quanta of power across the Indian sub-continent is proposed in this paper. Not only enabling energy security in the subcontinent it will also provide a platform for Renewable Energy Sources (RES) integration. This paper assesses the need and conditions for a Supergrid deployment and consequently proposes a meshed topology based on Voltage Source High Voltage Direct Current (VSC- HVDC) converters for the Supergrid modeling. Various control schemes for the control of voltage and power are utilized for the regulation of the network parameters. A 3 terminal Multi Terminal Direct Current (MTDC) network is used for the simulations.

Keywords: Super grid, Wind and Solar energy, High Voltage Direct Current, Electricity management, Load Flow Analysis.

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Authors: Jittarat Satonsaowapak, Thanatchai. Kulworawanichpong., Ratchadaporn Oonsivilai, Anant Oonsivilai

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The use of renewable energy sources becomes more necessary and interesting. As wider applications of renewable energy devices at domestic, commercial and industrial levels has not only resulted in greater awareness, but also significantly installed capacities. In addition, biomass principally is in the form of woods, which is a form of energy by humans for a long time. Gasification is a process of conversion of solid carbonaceous fuel into combustible gas by partial combustion. Many gasifier models have various operating conditions; the parameters kept in each model are different. This study applied experimental data, which has three inputs, which are; biomass consumption, temperature at combustion zone and ash discharge rate. One output is gas flow rate. For this paper, neural network was used to identify the gasifier system suitable for the experimental data. In the result,neural networkis usable to attain the answer.

Keywords: Gasifier System, Identification, Neural Network

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Authors: Insaf Mehani, Ahmed Boulal, Bachir Bouchekima

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Renewable energy, including bio energy are an alternative to fossil fuel depletion and a way to fight against the harmful effects of climate change. It is possible to develop common dates of low commercial value, and put on the local and international market a new generation of products with high added values ​​such as bio ethanol. Besides its use in chemical synthesis, bio ethanol can be blended with gasoline to produce a clean fuel while improving the octane.

Keywords: Bio energy, dates, bio ethanol.

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Authors: Kunya Bowornchockchai

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to forecast the monthly exchange rate between Thai baht and the US dollar and to compare two forecasting methods. The methods are Box-Jenkins’ method and Holt’s method. Results show that the Box-Jenkins’ method is the most suitable method for the monthly Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar. The suitable forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,0)  without constant and the forecasting equation is Y_t = Y_t-1 + 0.3691 (Y_t-1 - Y_t-2) When Y_t  is the time series data at time t, respectively.

Keywords: Box–Jenkins Method, Holt’s Method, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).

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Authors: Hazem M. El-Bakry, Nikos Mastorakis

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Fast forecasting of stock market prices is very important for strategic planning. In this paper, a new approach for fast forecasting of stock market prices is presented. Such algorithm uses new high speed time delay neural networks (HSTDNNs). The operation of these networks relies on performing cross correlation in the frequency domain between the input data and the input weights of neural networks. It is proved mathematically and practically that the number of computation steps required for the presented HSTDNNs is less than that needed by traditional time delay neural networks (TTDNNs). Simulation results using MATLAB confirm the theoretical computations.

Keywords: Fast Forecasting, Stock Market Prices, Time Delay NeuralNetworks, Cross Correlation, Frequency Domain.

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Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović

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Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector autoregressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is Neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.

Keywords: Nelson-Siegel model, Neural networks, Svensson model, Vector autoregressive model, Yield curve.

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