Search results for: prediction error bias correction.
2300 Impact of Government Spending on Private Consumption and on the Economy: Case of Thailand
Authors: Paitoon Kraipornsak
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The recent global financial problem urges government to play role in stimulating the economy due to the fact that private sector has little ability to purchase during the recession. A concerned question is whether the increased government spending crowds out private consumption and whether it helps stimulate the economy. If the government spending policy is effective; the private consumption is expected to increase and can compensate the recent extra government expense. In this study, the government spending is categorized into government consumption spending and government capital spending. The study firstly examines consumer consumption along the line with the demand function in microeconomic theory. Three categories of private consumption are used in the study. Those are food consumption, non food consumption, and services consumption. The dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System of the three categories of the private consumption is estimated using the Vector Error Correction Mechanism model. The estimated model indicates the substituting effects (negative impacts) of the government consumption spending on budget shares of private non food consumption and of the government capital spending on budget share of private food consumption, respectively. Nevertheless the result does not necessarily indicate whether the negative effects of changes in the budget shares of the non food and the food consumption means fallen total private consumption. Microeconomic consumer demand analysis clearly indicates changes in component structure of aggregate expenditure in the economy as a result of the government spending policy. The macroeconomic concept of aggregate demand comprising consumption, investment, government spending (the government consumption spending and the government capital spending), export, and import are used to estimate for their relationship using the Vector Error Correction Mechanism model. The macroeconomic study found no effect of the government capital spending on either the private consumption or the growth of GDP while the government consumption spending has negative effect on the growth of GDP. Therefore no crowding out effect of the government spending is found on the private consumption but it is ineffective and even inefficient expenditure as found reducing growth of the GDP in the context of Thailand.Keywords: government consumption spending, governmentcapital spending, private consumption on food, non food, andservices, Vector Error Correction Mechanism, Almost Ideal DemandSystem, substitution effect, complementary effect, consumer demand, aggregate demand
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17792299 A Novel Slip Correction Factor for Spherical Aerosol Particles
Authors: Abouzar Moshfegh, Mehrzad Shams, Goodarz Ahmadi, Reza Ebrahimi
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A 3D simulation study for an incompressible slip flow around a spherical aerosol particle was performed. The full Navier-Stokes equations were solved and the velocity jump at the gas-particle interface was treated numerically by imposition of the slip boundary condition. Analytical solution to the Stokesian slip flow past a spherical particle was used as a benchmark for code verification, and excellent agreement was achieved. The Simulation results showed that in addition to the Knudsen number, the Reynolds number affects the slip correction factor. Thus, the Cunningham-based slip corrections must be augmented by the inclusion of the effect of Reynolds number for application to Lagrangian tracking of fine particles. A new expression for the slip correction factor as a function of both Knudsen number and Reynolds number was developed.Keywords: CFD, Cunningham correction, Slip correction factor, Spherical aerosol.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 34972298 A Comparison of Bias Among Relaxed Divisor Methods Using 3 Bias Measurements
Authors: Sumachaya Harnsukworapanich, Tetsuo Ichimori
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The apportionment method is used by many countries, to calculate the distribution of seats in political bodies. For example, this method is used in the United States (U.S.) to distribute house seats proportionally based on the population of the electoral district. Famous apportionment methods include the divisor methods called the Adams Method, Dean Method, Hill Method, Jefferson Method and Webster Method. Sometimes the results from the implementation of these divisor methods are unfair and include errors. Therefore, it is important to examine the optimization of this method by using a bias measurement to figure out precise and fair results. In this research we investigate the bias of divisor methods in the U.S. Houses of Representatives toward large and small states by applying the Stolarsky Mean Method. We compare the bias of the apportionment method by using two famous bias measurements: the Balinski and Young measurement and the Ernst measurement. Both measurements have a formula for large and small states. The Third measurement however, which was created by the researchers, did not factor in the element of large and small states into the formula. All three measurements are compared and the results show that our measurement produces similar results to the other two famous measurements.
Keywords: Apportionment, Bias, Divisor, Fair, Simulation
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17542297 Application of Extreme Learning Machine Method for Time Series Analysis
Authors: Rampal Singh, S. Balasundaram
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In this paper, we study the application of Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) algorithm for single layered feedforward neural networks to non-linear chaotic time series problems. In this algorithm the input weights and the hidden layer bias are randomly chosen. The ELM formulation leads to solving a system of linear equations in terms of the unknown weights connecting the hidden layer to the output layer. The solution of this general system of linear equations will be obtained using Moore-Penrose generalized pseudo inverse. For the study of the application of the method we consider the time series generated by the Mackey Glass delay differential equation with different time delays, Santa Fe A and UCR heart beat rate ECG time series. For the choice of sigmoid, sin and hardlim activation functions the optimal values for the memory order and the number of hidden neurons which give the best prediction performance in terms of root mean square error are determined. It is observed that the results obtained are in close agreement with the exact solution of the problems considered which clearly shows that ELM is a very promising alternative method for time series prediction.Keywords: Chaotic time series, Extreme learning machine, Generalization performance.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 34682296 Imputing Missing Data in Electronic Health Records: A Comparison of Linear and Non-Linear Imputation Models
Authors: Alireza Vafaei Sadr, Vida Abedi, Jiang Li, Ramin Zand
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Missing data is a common challenge in medical research and can lead to biased or incomplete results. When the data bias leaks into models, it further exacerbates health disparities; biased algorithms can lead to misclassification and reduced resource allocation and monitoring as part of prevention strategies for certain minorities and vulnerable segments of patient populations, which in turn further reduce data footprint from the same population – thus, a vicious cycle. This study compares the performance of six imputation techniques grouped into Linear and Non-Linear models, on two different real-world electronic health records (EHRs) datasets, representing 17864 patient records. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) are used as performance metrics, and the results show that the Linear models outperformed the Non-Linear models in terms of both metrics. These results suggest that sometimes Linear models might be an optimal choice for imputation in laboratory variables in terms of imputation efficiency and uncertainty of predicted values.
Keywords: EHR, Machine Learning, imputation, laboratory variables, algorithmic bias.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 312295 Performance Evaluation of Complex Valued Neural Networks Using Various Error Functions
Authors: Anita S. Gangal, P. K. Kalra, D. S. Chauhan
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The backpropagation algorithm in general employs quadratic error function. In fact, most of the problems that involve minimization employ the Quadratic error function. With alternative error functions the performance of the optimization scheme can be improved. The new error functions help in suppressing the ill-effects of the outliers and have shown good performance to noise. In this paper we have tried to evaluate and compare the relative performance of complex valued neural network using different error functions. During first simulation for complex XOR gate it is observed that some error functions like Absolute error, Cauchy error function can replace Quadratic error function. In the second simulation it is observed that for some error functions the performance of the complex valued neural network depends on the architecture of the network whereas with few other error functions convergence speed of the network is independent of architecture of the neural network.Keywords: Complex backpropagation algorithm, complex errorfunctions, complex valued neural network, split activation function.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 23672294 A Study of RSCMAC Enhanced GPS Dynamic Positioning
Authors: Ching-Tsan Chiang, Sheng-Jie Yang, Jing-Kai Huang
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The purpose of this research is to develop and apply the RSCMAC to enhance the dynamic accuracy of Global Positioning System (GPS). GPS devices provide services of accurate positioning, speed detection and highly precise time standard for over 98% area on the earth. The overall operation of Global Positioning System includes 24 GPS satellites in space; signal transmission that includes 2 frequency carrier waves (Link 1 and Link 2) and 2 sets random telegraphic codes (C/A code and P code), on-earth monitoring stations or client GPS receivers. Only 4 satellites utilization, the client position and its elevation can be detected rapidly. The more receivable satellites, the more accurate position can be decoded. Currently, the standard positioning accuracy of the simplified GPS receiver is greatly increased, but due to affected by the error of satellite clock, the troposphere delay and the ionosphere delay, current measurement accuracy is in the level of 5~15m. In increasing the dynamic GPS positioning accuracy, most researchers mainly use inertial navigation system (INS) and installation of other sensors or maps for the assistance. This research utilizes the RSCMAC advantages of fast learning, learning convergence assurance, solving capability of time-related dynamic system problems with the static positioning calibration structure to improve and increase the GPS dynamic accuracy. The increasing of GPS dynamic positioning accuracy can be achieved by using RSCMAC system with GPS receivers collecting dynamic error data for the error prediction and follows by using the predicted error to correct the GPS dynamic positioning data. The ultimate purpose of this research is to improve the dynamic positioning error of cheap GPS receivers and the economic benefits will be enhanced while the accuracy is increased.Keywords: Dynamic Error, GPS, Prediction, RSCMAC.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16342293 Comparing Machine Learning Estimation of Fuel Consumption of Heavy-Duty Vehicles
Authors: Victor Bodell, Lukas Ekstrom, Somayeh Aghanavesi
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Fuel consumption (FC) is one of the key factors in determining expenses of operating a heavy-duty vehicle. A customer may therefore request an estimate of the FC of a desired vehicle. The modular design of heavy-duty vehicles allows their construction by specifying the building blocks, such as gear box, engine and chassis type. If the combination of building blocks is unprecedented, it is unfeasible to measure the FC, since this would first r equire the construction of the vehicle. This paper proposes a machine learning approach to predict FC. This study uses around 40,000 vehicles specific and o perational e nvironmental c onditions i nformation, such as road slopes and driver profiles. A ll v ehicles h ave d iesel engines and a mileage of more than 20,000 km. The data is used to investigate the accuracy of machine learning algorithms Linear regression (LR), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and Artificial n eural n etworks (ANN) in predicting fuel consumption for heavy-duty vehicles. Performance of the algorithms is evaluated by reporting the prediction error on both simulated data and operational measurements. The performance of the algorithms is compared using nested cross-validation and statistical hypothesis testing. The statistical evaluation procedure finds that ANNs have the lowest prediction error compared to LR and KNN in estimating fuel consumption on both simulated and operational data. The models have a mean relative prediction error of 0.3% on simulated data, and 4.2% on operational data.Keywords: Artificial neural networks, fuel consumption, machine learning, regression, statistical tests.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 7602292 How Herding Bias Could be Derived from Individual Investor Types and Risk Tolerance?
Authors: Huei-Wen Lin
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This paper is to clarify the relationship of individual investor types, risk tolerance and herding bias. The questionnaire survey investigation is conducted to collect 389 valid and voluntary individual investors and to examine how the risk tolerance plays as a mediator between four types of personality and herding bias. Based on featuring BB&K model and reviewing the prior literature of psychology, a linear structural model are constructed and further used to evaluate the path of herding formation through the analysis of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The results showed that more impetuous investors would be prone to herding bias directly, but rather exhibit higher risk tolerance. However, risk tolerance would fully mediate between the level of confidence (i.e., confident or anxious) and herding bias, but not mediate between the method of action (careful or impetuous) for individual investors.
Keywords: Herding, investor types, risk tolerance.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 42812291 Selection of Designs in Ordinal Regression Models under Linear Predictor Misspecification
Authors: Ishapathik Das
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The purpose of this article is to find a method of comparing designs for ordinal regression models using quantile dispersion graphs in the presence of linear predictor misspecification. The true relationship between response variable and the corresponding control variables are usually unknown. Experimenter assumes certain form of the linear predictor of the ordinal regression models. The assumed form of the linear predictor may not be correct always. Thus, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the unknown parameters of the model may be biased due to misspecification of the linear predictor. In this article, the uncertainty in the linear predictor is represented by an unknown function. An algorithm is provided to estimate the unknown function at the design points where observations are available. The unknown function is estimated at all points in the design region using multivariate parametric kriging. The comparison of the designs are based on a scalar valued function of the mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) matrix, which incorporates both variance and bias of the prediction caused by the misspecification in the linear predictor. The designs are compared using quantile dispersion graphs approach. The graphs also visually depict the robustness of the designs on the changes in the parameter values. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology.Keywords: Model misspecification, multivariate kriging, multivariate logistic link, ordinal response models, quantile dispersion graphs.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 9512290 FPGA Implementation of the BB84 Protocol
Authors: Jaouadi Ikram, Machhout Mohsen
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The development of a quantum key distribution (QKD) system on a field-programmable gate array (FPGA) platform is the subject of this paper. A quantum cryptographic protocol is designed based on the properties of quantum information and the characteristics of FPGAs. The proposed protocol performs key extraction, reconciliation, error correction, and privacy amplification tasks to generate a perfectly secret final key. We modeled the presence of the spy in our system with a strategy to reveal some of the exchanged information without being noticed. Using an FPGA card with a 100 MHz clock frequency, we have demonstrated the evolution of the error rate as well as the amounts of mutual information (between the two interlocutors and that of the spy) passing from one step to another in the key generation process.
Keywords: QKD, BB84, protocol, cryptography, FPGA, key, security, communication.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8142289 A Comparison of Adaline and MLP Neural Network based Predictors in SIR Estimation in Mobile DS/CDMA Systems
Authors: Nahid Ardalani, Ahmadreza Khoogar, H. Roohi
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In this paper we compare the response of linear and nonlinear neural network-based prediction schemes in prediction of received Signal-to-Interference Power Ratio (SIR) in Direct Sequence Code Division Multiple Access (DS/CDMA) systems. The nonlinear predictor is Multilayer Perceptron MLP and the linear predictor is an Adaptive Linear (Adaline) predictor. We solve the problem of complexity by using the Minimum Mean Squared Error (MMSE) principle to select the optimal predictors. The optimized Adaline predictor is compared to optimized MLP by employing noisy Rayleigh fading signals with 1.8 GHZ carrier frequency in an urban environment. The results show that the Adaline predictor can estimates SIR with the same error as MLP when the user has the velocity of 5 km/h and 60 km/h but by increasing the velocity up-to 120 km/h the mean squared error of MLP is two times more than Adaline predictor. This makes the Adaline predictor (with lower complexity) more suitable than MLP for closed-loop power control where efficient and accurate identification of the time-varying inverse dynamics of the multi path fading channel is required.Keywords: Power control, neural networks, DS/CDMA mobilecommunication systems.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 24662288 Development of Prediction Models of Day-Ahead Hourly Building Electricity Consumption and Peak Power Demand Using the Machine Learning Method
Authors: Dalin Si, Azizan Aziz, Bertrand Lasternas
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To encourage building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market and reduce building peak demand, this study aims to develop models that predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption and demand using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). All prediction models are built in Python, with tool Scikit-learn and Pybrain. The input data for both consumption and demand prediction are time stamp, outdoor dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, air handling unit (AHU), supply air temperature and solar radiation. Solar radiation, which is unavailable a day-ahead, is predicted at first, and then this estimation is used as an input to predict consumption and demand. Models to predict consumption and demand are trained in both SVM and ANN, and depend on cooling or heating, weekdays or weekends. The results show that ANN is the better option for both consumption and demand prediction. It can achieve 15.50% to 20.03% coefficient of variance of root mean square error (CVRMSE) for consumption prediction and 22.89% to 32.42% CVRMSE for demand prediction, respectively. To conclude, the presented models have potential to help building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market, but they are not robust when used in demand response control.
Keywords: Building energy prediction, data mining, demand response, electricity market.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21582287 Hybrid Method Using Wavelets and Predictive Method for Compression of Speech Signal
Authors: Karima Siham Aoubid, Mohamed Boulemden
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The development of the signal compression algorithms is having compressive progress. These algorithms are continuously improved by new tools and aim to reduce, an average, the number of bits necessary to the signal representation by means of minimizing the reconstruction error. The following article proposes the compression of Arabic speech signal by a hybrid method combining the wavelet transform and the linear prediction. The adopted approach rests, on one hand, on the original signal decomposition by ways of analysis filters, which is followed by the compression stage, and on the other hand, on the application of the order 5, as well as, the compression signal coefficients. The aim of this approach is the estimation of the predicted error, which will be coded and transmitted. The decoding operation is then used to reconstitute the original signal. Thus, the adequate choice of the bench of filters is useful to the transform in necessary to increase the compression rate and induce an impercevable distortion from an auditive point of view.Keywords: Compression, linear prediction analysis, multiresolution analysis, speech signal.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12862286 Mathematical Modelling of Single Phase Unity Power Factor Boost Converter
Authors: Sanjay L. Kurkute, Pradeep M. Patil, Kakasaheb C. Mohite
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An optimal control strategy based on simple model, a single phase unity power factor boost converter is presented with an evaluation of first order differential equations. This paper presents an evaluation of single phase boost converter having power factor correction. The simple discrete model of boost converter is formed and optimal control is obtained, digital PI is adopted to adjust control error. The method of instantaneous current control is proposed in this paper for its good tracking performance of dynamic response. The simulation and experimental results verified our design.Keywords: Single phase, boost converter, Power factor correction (PFC), Pulse Width Modulation (PWM).
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 33962285 Predicting the Impact of the Defect on the Overall Environment in Function Based Systems
Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Urvashi Malhotra, E. Ardil
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There is lot of work done in prediction of the fault proneness of the software systems. But, it is the severity of the faults that is more important than number of faults existing in the developed system as the major faults matters most for a developer and those major faults needs immediate attention. In this paper, we tried to predict the level of impact of the existing faults in software systems. Neuro-Fuzzy based predictor models is applied NASA-s public domain defect dataset coded in C programming language. As Correlation-based Feature Selection (CFS) evaluates the worth of a subset of attributes by considering the individual predictive ability of each feature along with the degree of redundancy between them. So, CFS is used for the selecting the best metrics that have highly correlated with level of severity of faults. The results are compared with the prediction results of Logistic Models (LMT) that was earlier quoted as the best technique in [17]. The results are recorded in terms of Accuracy, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The results show that Neuro-fuzzy based model provide a relatively better prediction accuracy as compared to other models and hence, can be used for the modeling of the level of impact of faults in function based systems.Keywords: Software Metrics, Fuzzy, Neuro-Fuzzy, Software Faults, Accuracy, MAE, RMSE.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13192284 Model-Driven and Data-Driven Approaches for Crop Yield Prediction: Analysis and Comparison
Authors: Xiangtuo Chen, Paul-Henry Cournéde
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Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records. The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem. An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations). It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict requirements about the dataset. A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression). The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP), mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the crop prediction capacity. The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach (MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives. The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is to combine these two types of approaches.Keywords: Crop yield prediction, crop model, sensitivity analysis, paramater estimation, particle swarm optimization, random forest.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 11272283 Wheat Yield Prediction through Agro Meteorological Indices for Ardebil District
Authors: Fariba Esfandiary, Ghafoor Aghaie, Ali Dolati Mehr
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Wheat prediction was carried out using different meteorological variables together with agro meteorological indices in Ardebil district for the years 2004-2005 & 2005–2006. On the basis of correlation coefficients, standard error of estimate as well as relative deviation of predicted yield from actual yield using different statistical models, the best subset of agro meteorological indices were selected including daily minimum temperature (Tmin), accumulated difference of maximum & minimum temperatures (TD), growing degree days (GDD), accumulated water vapor pressure deficit (VPD), sunshine hours (SH) & potential evapotranspiration (PET). Yield prediction was done two months in advance before harvesting time which was coincide with commencement of reproductive stage of wheat (5th of June). It revealed that in the final statistical models, 83% of wheat yield variability was accounted for variation in above agro meteorological indices.
Keywords: Wheat yields prediction, agro meteorological indices, statistical models
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20952282 Topology Preservation in SOM
Authors: E. Arsuaga Uriarte, F. Díaz Martín
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The SOM has several beneficial features which make it a useful method for data mining. One of the most important features is the ability to preserve the topology in the projection. There are several measures that can be used to quantify the goodness of the map in order to obtain the optimal projection, including the average quantization error and many topological errors. Many researches have studied how the topology preservation should be measured. One option consists of using the topographic error which considers the ratio of data vectors for which the first and second best BMUs are not adjacent. In this work we present a study of the behaviour of the topographic error in different kinds of maps. We have found that this error devaluates the rectangular maps and we have studied the reasons why this happens. Finally, we suggest a new topological error to improve the deficiency of the topographic error.Keywords: Map lattice, Self-Organizing Map, topographic error, topology preservation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 29432281 Expert Witness Testimony in the Battered Woman Syndrome
Authors: Ana Pauna
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The Expert Witness Testimony in the Battered Woman Syndrome Expert witness testimony (EWT) is a kind of information given by an expert specialized in the field (here in BWS) to the jury in order to help the court better understand the case. EWT does not always work in favor of the battered women. Two main decision-making models are discussed in the paper: the Mathematical model and the Explanation model. In the first model, the jurors calculate ″the importance and strength of each piece of evidence″ whereas in the second model they try to integrate the EWT with the evidence and create a coherent story that would describe the crime. The jury often misunderstands and misjudges battered women for their action (or in this case inaction). They assume that these women are masochists and accept being mistreated for if a man abuses a woman constantly, she should and could divorce him or simply leave at any time. The research in the domain found that indeed, expert witness testimony has a powerful influence on juror’s decisions thus its quality needs to be further explored. One of the important factors that need further studies is a bias called the dispositionist worldview (a belief that what happens to people is of their own doing). This kind of attributional bias represents a tendency to think that a person’s behavior is due to his or her disposition, even when the behavior is clearly attributed to the situation. Hypothesis The hypothesis of this paper is that if a juror has a dispositionist worldview then he or she will blame the rape victim for triggering the assault. The juror would therefore commit the fundamental attribution error and believe that the victim’s disposition caused the rape and not the situation she was in. Methods The subjects in the study were 500 randomly sampled undergraduate students from McGill, Concordia, Université de Montréal and UQAM. Dispositional Worldview was scored on the Dispositionist Worldview Questionnaire. After reading the Rape Scenarios, each student was asked to play the role of a juror and answer a questionnaire consisting of 7 questions about the responsibility, causality and fault of the victim. Results The results confirm the hypothesis which states that if a juror has a dispositionist worldview then he or she will blame the rape victim for triggering the assault. By doing so, the juror commits the fundamental attribution error because he will believe that the victim’s disposition, and not the constraints or opportunities of the situation, caused the rape scenario.Keywords: bias, expert/witness testimony, attribution error, jury, rape myth
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21252280 Design of Digital Differentiator to Optimize Relative Error
Authors: Vinita V. Sondur, Vilas B. Sondur, Narasimha H. Ayachit
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It is observed that the Weighted least-square (WLS) technique, including the modifications, results in equiripple error curve. The resultant error as a percent of the ideal value is highly non-uniformly distributed over the range of frequencies for which the differentiator is designed. The present paper proposes a modification to the technique so that the optimization procedure results in lower maximum relative error compared to the ideal values. Simulation results for first order as well as higher order differentiators are given to illustrate the excellent performance of the proposed method.Keywords: Differentiator, equiripple, error distribution, relative error.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 11852279 Automatic Flood Prediction Using Rainfall Runoff Model in Moravian-Silesian Region
Authors: B. Sir, M. Podhoranyi, S. Kuchar, T. Kocyan
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Rainfall runoff models play important role in hydrological predictions. However, the model is only one part of the process for creation of flood prediction. The aim of this paper is to show the process of successful prediction for flood event (May 15 – May 18 2014). Prediction was performed by rainfall runoff model HEC–HMS, one of the models computed within Floreon+ system. The paper briefly evaluates the results of automatic hydrologic prediction on the river Olše catchment and its gages Český Těšín and Věřňovice.Keywords: Flood, HEC-HMS, Prediction, Rainfall – Runoff.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21662278 A Parallel Architecture for the Real Time Correction of Stereoscopic Images
Authors: Zohir Irki, Michel Devy
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In this paper, we will present an architecture for the implementation of a real time stereoscopic images correction's approach. This architecture is parallel and makes use of several memory blocs in which are memorized pre calculated data relating to the cameras used for the acquisition of images. The use of reduced images proves to be essential in the proposed approach; the suggested architecture must so be able to carry out the real time reduction of original images.Keywords: Image reduction, Real-time correction, Parallel architecture, Parallel treatment.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10692277 The Aspect of the Human Bias in Decision Making within Quality Management Systems & LEAN Theory
Authors: Adriana Ávila Zúñiga Nordfjeld
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This paper provides a literature review to document the state of the art with respect to handling “human bias” in decision making within the established quality management systems (QMS) and LEAN theory, in the context of shipbuilding. Previous research shows that in shipbuilding there is a huge deviation from the planned man-hours under the project management to the actual man-hours used because of errors in planning and reworks caused by human bias in the information flows, among others. This reduces the efficiency, and increases operational costs. Thus, the research question is how QMS and LEAN handle biases. The findings show the gap in studying the integration of methods to handle human bias in decision making into QMS and lean, not only within shipbuilding, but in general. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed for researchers and practitioners in the areas of decision making, QMS and LEAN, and future research is suggested.
Keywords: Human bias, decision making, LEAN Shipbuilding, quality management systems.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 29112276 Dispersed Error Control based on Error Filter Design for Improving Halftone Image Quality
Authors: Sang-Chul Kim, Sung-Il Chien
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The error diffusion method generates worm artifacts, and weakens the edge of the halftone image when the continuous gray scale image is reproduced by a binary image. First, to enhance the edges, we propose the edge-enhancing filter by considering the quantization error information and gradient of the neighboring pixels. Furthermore, to remove worm artifacts often appearing in a halftone image, we add adaptively random noise into the weights of an error filter.Keywords: Artifact suppression, Edge enhancement, Error diffusion method, Halftone image
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13792275 The Influence of Substrate Bias on the Mechanical Properties of a W- and S-containing DLC-based Solid-lubricant Film
Authors: Guojia Ma, Guoqiang Lin, Shuili Gong, Gang Sun, Dawang Wang
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A diamond-like carbon (DLC) based solid-lubricant film was designed and DLC films were successfully prepared using a microwave plasma enhanced magnetron sputtering deposition technology. Post-test characterizations including Raman spectrometry, X-ray diffraction, nano-indentation test, adhesion test, friction coefficient test were performed to study the influence of substrate bias voltage on the mechanical properties of the W- and S-doped DLC films. The results indicated that the W- and S-doped DLC films also had the typical structure of DLC films and a better mechanical performance achieved by the application of a substrate bias of -200V.Keywords: Adhesive Strength, Coefficient of Friction, Substrate Bias, W- and S-doped DLC film
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19132274 High Performance of Direct Torque and Flux Control of a Double Stator Induction Motor Drive with a Fuzzy Stator Resistance Estimator
Authors: K. Kouzi
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In order to have stable and high performance of direct torque and flux control (DTFC) of double star induction motor drive (DSIM), proper on-line adaptation of the stator resistance is very important. This is inevitably due to the variation of the stator resistance during operating conditions, which introduces error in estimated flux position and the magnitude of the stator flux. Error in the estimated stator flux deteriorates the performance of the DTFC drive. Also, the effect of error in estimation is very important especially at low speed. Due to this, our aim is to overcome the sensitivity of the DTFC to the stator resistance variation by proposing on-line fuzzy estimation stator resistance. The fuzzy estimation method is based on an on-line stator resistance correction through the variations of the stator current estimation error and its variations. The fuzzy logic controller gives the future stator resistance increment at the output. The main advantage of the suggested algorithm control is to avoid the drive instability that may occur in certain situations and ensure the tracking of the actual stator resistance. The validity of the technique and the improvement of the whole system performance are proved by the results.
Keywords: Direct torque control, dual stator induction motor, fuzzy logic estimation, stator resistance adaptation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 11162273 The Effects of Applied Negative Bias Voltage on Structure and Optical Properties of α-C:H Films
Authors: X. L. Zhou, S. Tunmee, I. Toda, K. Komatsu, S. Ohshio, H. Saitoh
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Hydrogenated amorphous carbon (a-C:H) films have been synthesized by a radio frequency plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (rf-PECVD) technique with different bias voltage from 0.0 to -0.5 kV. The Raman spectra displayed the polymer-like hydrogenated amorphous carbon (PLCH) film with 0.0 to -0.1 and a-C:H films with -0.2 to -0.5 kV of bias voltages. The surface chemical information of all films were studied by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) technique, presented to C-C (sp2 and sp3) and C-O bonds, and relative carbon (C) and oxygen (O) atomics contents. The O contamination had affected on structure and optical properties. The true density of PLCH and a-C:H films were characterized by X-ray refractivity (XRR) method, showed the result as in the range of 1.16-1.73 g/cm3 that depending on an increasing of bias voltage. The hardness was proportional to the true density of films. In addition, the optical properties i.e. refractive index (n) and extinction coefficient (k) of these films were determined by a spectroscopic ellipsometry (SE) method that give formation to in 1.62-2.10 (n) and 0.04-0.15 (k) respectively. These results indicated that the optical properties confirmed the Raman results as presenting the structure changed with applied bias voltage increased.
Keywords: Negative bias voltage, a-C:H film, Oxygen contamination, Optical properties.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 54142272 Optimization of the Characteristic Straight Line Method by a “Best Estimate“ of Observed, Normal Orthometric Elevation Differences
Authors: Mahmoud M. S. Albattah
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In this paper, to optimize the “Characteristic Straight Line Method" which is used in the soil displacement analysis, a “best estimate" of the geodetic leveling observations has been achieved by taking in account the concept of 'Height systems'. This concept has been discussed in detail and consequently the concept of “height". In landslides dynamic analysis, the soil is considered as a mosaic of rigid blocks. The soil displacement has been monitored and analyzed by using the “Characteristic Straight Line Method". Its characteristic components have been defined constructed from a “best estimate" of the topometric observations. In the measurement of elevation differences, we have used the most modern leveling equipment available. Observational procedures have also been designed to provide the most effective method to acquire data. In addition systematic errors which cannot be sufficiently controlled by instrumentation or observational techniques are minimized by applying appropriate corrections to the observed data: the level collimation correction minimizes the error caused by nonhorizontality of the leveling instrument's line of sight for unequal sight lengths, the refraction correction is modeled to minimize the refraction error caused by temperature (density) variation of air strata, the rod temperature correction accounts for variation in the length of the leveling rod' s Invar/LO-VAR® strip which results from temperature changes, the rod scale correction ensures a uniform scale which conforms to the international length standard and the introduction of the concept of the 'Height systems' where all types of height (orthometric, dynamic, normal, gravity correction, and equipotential surface) have been investigated. The “Characteristic Straight Line Method" is slightly more convenient than the “Characteristic Circle Method". It permits to evaluate a displacement of very small magnitude even when the displacement is of an infinitesimal quantity. The inclination of the landslide is given by the inverse of the distance reference point O to the “Characteristic Straight Line". Its direction is given by the bearing of the normal directed from point O to the Characteristic Straight Line (Fig..6). A “best estimate" of the topometric observations was used to measure the elevation of points carefully selected, before and after the deformation. Gross errors have been eliminated by statistical analyses and by comparing the heights within local neighborhoods. The results of a test using an area where very interesting land surface deformation occurs are reported. Monitoring with different options and qualitative comparison of results based on a sufficient number of check points are presented.
Keywords: Characteristic straight line method, dynamic height, landslides, orthometric height, systematic errors.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15262271 Movie Genre Preference Prediction Using Machine Learning for Customer-Based Information
Authors: Haifeng Wang, Haili Zhang
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Most movie recommendation systems have been developed for customers to find items of interest. This work introduces a predictive model usable by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) who are in need of a data-based and analytical approach to stock proper movies for local audiences and retain more customers. We used classification models to extract features from thousands of customers’ demographic, behavioral and social information to predict their movie genre preference. In the implementation, a Gaussian kernel support vector machine (SVM) classification model and a logistic regression model were established to extract features from sample data and their test error-in-sample were compared. Comparison of error-out-sample was also made under different Vapnik–Chervonenkis (VC) dimensions in the machine learning algorithm to find and prevent overfitting. Gaussian kernel SVM prediction model can correctly predict movie genre preferences in 85% of positive cases. The accuracy of the algorithm increased to 93% with a smaller VC dimension and less overfitting. These findings advance our understanding of how to use machine learning approach to predict customers’ preferences with a small data set and design prediction tools for these enterprises.Keywords: Computational social science, movie preference, machine learning, SVM.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1598