Search results for: material models
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4265

Search results for: material models

4085 Surface Roughness and MRR Effect on Manual Plasma Arc Cutting Machining

Authors: R. Bhuvenesh, M.H. Norizaman, M.S. Abdul Manan

Abstract:

Industrial surveys shows that manufacturing companies define the qualities of thermal removing process based on the dimension and physical appearance of the cutting material surface. Therefore, the roughness of the surface area of the material cut by the plasma arc cutting process and the rate of the removed material by the manual plasma arc cutting machine was importantly considered. Plasma arc cutter Selco Genesis 90 was used to cut Standard AISI 1017 Steel of 200 mm x100 mm x 6 mm manually based on the selected parameters setting. The material removal rate (MRR) was measured by determining the weight of the specimens before and after the cutting process. The surface roughness (SR) analysis was conducted using Mitutoyo CS-3100 to determine the average roughness value (Ra). Taguchi method was utilized to achieve optimum condition for both outputs studied. The microstructure analysis in the region of the cutting surface is performed using SEM. The results reveal that the SR values are inversely proportional to the MRR values. The quality of the surface roughness depends on the dross peak that occurred after the cutting process.

Keywords: Material removal rate, plasma arc cutting, surface roughness, Taguchi method

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4084 Imputing Missing Data in Electronic Health Records: A Comparison of Linear and Non-Linear Imputation Models

Authors: Alireza Vafaei Sadr, Vida Abedi, Jiang Li, Ramin Zand

Abstract:

Missing data is a common challenge in medical research and can lead to biased or incomplete results. When the data bias leaks into models, it further exacerbates health disparities; biased algorithms can lead to misclassification and reduced resource allocation and monitoring as part of prevention strategies for certain minorities and vulnerable segments of patient populations, which in turn further reduce data footprint from the same population – thus, a vicious cycle. This study compares the performance of six imputation techniques grouped into Linear and Non-Linear models, on two different real-world electronic health records (EHRs) datasets, representing 17864 patient records. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) are used as performance metrics, and the results show that the Linear models outperformed the Non-Linear models in terms of both metrics. These results suggest that sometimes Linear models might be an optimal choice for imputation in laboratory variables in terms of imputation efficiency and uncertainty of predicted values.

Keywords: EHR, Machine Learning, imputation, laboratory variables, algorithmic bias.

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4083 The Analysis of Duct Model Through Structural and Dynamic Schemes

Authors: S. H. Yahaya, J. M. Ali, M. R. Arham

Abstract:

This paper presents the analysis of duct design using static and dynamic approaches. The static approach is used to find out applicability between the design and material applied. The material used in this paper is Thermoplastic Olefins (TPO). For the dynamic approach, the focusing is only on the CFD simulations. The fatigue life in this design and material applied also covered.

Keywords: CFD, structural analysis, fluid analysis, duct design, fatigue life

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4082 Useful Lifetime Prediction of Chevron Rubber Spring for Railway Vehicle

Authors: Chang Su Woo, Hyun Sung Park

Abstract:

Useful lifetime evaluation of chevron rubber spring was very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. It is, therefore, necessary to establish a suitable criterion for the replacement period of chevron rubber spring. In this study, we performed characteristic analysis and useful lifetime prediction of chevron rubber spring. Rubber material coefficient was obtained by curve fittings of uniaxial tension equibiaxial tension and pure shear test. Computer simulation was executed to predict and evaluate the load capacity and stiffness for chevron rubber spring. In order to useful lifetime prediction of rubber material, we carried out the compression set with heat aging test in an oven at the temperature ranging from 50°C to 100°C during a period 180 days. By using the Arrhenius plot, several useful lifetime prediction equations for rubber material was proposed.

Keywords: Chevron rubber spring, material coefficient, finite element analysis, useful lifetime prediction.

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4081 Comparison of Different k-NN Models for Speed Prediction in an Urban Traffic Network

Authors: Seyoung Kim, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

Abstract:

A database that records average traffic speeds measured at five-minute intervals for all the links in the traffic network of a metropolitan city. While learning from this data the models that can predict future traffic speed would be beneficial for the applications such as the car navigation system, building predictive models for every link becomes a nontrivial job if the number of links in a given network is huge. An advantage of adopting k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) as predictive models is that it does not require any explicit model building. Instead, k-NN takes a long time to make a prediction because it needs to search for the k-nearest neighbors in the database at prediction time. In this paper, we investigate how much we can speed up k-NN in making traffic speed predictions by reducing the amount of data to be searched for without a significant sacrifice of prediction accuracy. The rationale behind this is that we had a better look at only the recent data because the traffic patterns not only repeat daily or weekly but also change over time. In our experiments, we build several different k-NN models employing different sets of features which are the current and past traffic speeds of the target link and the neighbor links in its up/down-stream. The performances of these models are compared by measuring the average prediction accuracy and the average time taken to make a prediction using various amounts of data.

Keywords: Big data, k-NN, machine learning, traffic speed prediction.

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4080 A Hybrid System of Hidden Markov Models and Recurrent Neural Networks for Learning Deterministic Finite State Automata

Authors: Pavan K. Rallabandi, Kailash C. Patidar

Abstract:

In this paper, we present an optimization technique or a learning algorithm using the hybrid architecture by combining the most popular sequence recognition models such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Hidden Markov models (HMMs). In order to improve the sequence/pattern recognition/classification performance by applying a hybrid/neural symbolic approach, a gradient descent learning algorithm is developed using the Real Time Recurrent Learning of Recurrent Neural Network for processing the knowledge represented in trained Hidden Markov Models. The developed hybrid algorithm is implemented on automata theory as a sample test beds and the performance of the designed algorithm is demonstrated and evaluated on learning the deterministic finite state automata.

Keywords: Hybrid systems, Hidden Markov Models, Recurrent neural networks, Deterministic finite state automata.

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4079 Durability of LDPE Geomembrane within Sealing System of MSW (Landfill)

Authors: L. Menaa, A. Cherifi, K. Tigouirat, M. Choura

Abstract:

Analyse of locally manufactured Low Density Polyethylene (LDPE) durability, used within lining systems at bottom of Municipal Solid Waste (landfill), is done in the present work. For this end, short and middle time creep behavior under tension of the analyzed material is carried out. The locally manufactured material is tested and compared to the European one (LDPE-CE). Both materials was tested in 03 various mediums: ambient and two aggressive (salty water and foam water), using three specimens in each case. A testing campaign is carried out using an especially designed and achieved testing bench. Moreover, characterisation tests were carried out to evaluate the medium effect on the mechanical properties of the tested material (LDPE). Furthermore, experimental results have been used to establish a law regression which can be used to predict creep behaviour of the analyzed material. As a result, the analyzed LDPE material has showed a good stability in different ambient and aggressive mediums; as well, locally manufactured LDPE seems more flexible, compared with the European one. This makes it more useful to the desired application.

Keywords: LDPE membrane, solid waste, aggressive mediums, durability

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4078 Transformation Method CIM to PIM: From Business Processes Models Defined in BPMN to Use Case and Class Models Defined in UML

Authors: Y. Rhazali, Y. Hadi, A. Mouloudi

Abstract:

This paper proposes a method to automatic transformation of CIM level to PIM level respecting the MDA approach. Our proposal is based on creating a good CIM level through well-defined rules allowing as achieving rich models that contain relevant information to facilitate the task of the transformation to the PIM level. We define, thereafter, an appropriate PIM level through various UML diagram. Next, we propose set rules to move from CIM to PIM. Our method follows the MDA approach by considering the business dimension in the CIM level through the use BPMN, standard modeling business of OMG, and the use of UML in PIM advocated by MDA in this level.

Keywords: Model transformation, MDA, CIM, PIM.

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4077 Modeling the Saltatory Conduction in Myelinated Axons by Order Reduction

Authors: Ruxandra Barbulescu, Daniel Ioan, Gabriela Ciuprina

Abstract:

The saltatory conduction is the way the action potential is transmitted along a myelinated axon. The potential diffuses along the myelinated compartments and it is regenerated in the Ranvier nodes due to the ion channels allowing the flow across the membrane. For an efficient simulation of populations of neurons, it is important to use reduced order models both for myelinated compartments and for Ranvier nodes and to have control over their accuracy and inner parameters. The paper presents a reduced order model of this neural system which allows an efficient simulation method for the saltatory conduction in myelinated axons. This model is obtained by concatenating reduced order linear models of 1D myelinated compartments and nonlinear 0D models of Ranvier nodes. The models for the myelinated compartments are selected from a series of spatially distributed models developed and hierarchized according to their modeling errors. The extracted model described by a nonlinear PDE of hyperbolic type is able to reproduce the saltatory conduction with acceptable accuracy and takes into account the finite propagation speed of potential. Finally, this model is again reduced in order to make it suitable for the inclusion in large-scale neural circuits.

Keywords: Saltatory conduction, action potential, myelinated compartments, nonlinear, Ranvier nodes, reduced order models, POD.

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4076 Convection through Light Weight Timber Constructions with Mineral Wool

Authors: J. Schmidt, O. Kornadt

Abstract:

The major part of light weight timber constructions consists of insulation. Mineral wool is the most commonly used insulation due to its cost efficiency and easy handling. The fiber orientation and porosity of this insulation material enables flowthrough. The air flow resistance is low. If leakage occurs in the insulated bay section, the convective flow may cause energy losses and infiltration of the exterior wall with moisture and particles. In particular the infiltrated moisture may lead to thermal bridges and growth of health endangering mould and mildew. In order to prevent this problem, different numerical calculation models have been developed. All models developed so far have a potential for completion. The implementation of the flow-through properties of mineral wool insulation may help to improve the existing models. Assuming that the real pressure difference between interior and exterior surface is larger than the prescribed pressure difference in the standard test procedure for mineral wool ISO 9053 / EN 29053, measurements were performed using the measurement setup for research on convective moisture transfer “MSRCMT". These measurements show, that structural inhomogeneities of mineral wool effect the permeability only at higher pressure differences, as applied in MSRCMT. Additional microscopic investigations show, that the location of a leak within the construction has a crucial influence on the air flow-through and the infiltration rate. The results clearly indicate that the empirical values for the acoustic resistance of mineral wool should not be used for the calculation of convective transfer mechanisms.

Keywords: convection, convective transfer, infiltration, mineralwool, permeability, resistance, leakage

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4075 Comparison of Stochastic Point Process Models of Rainfall in Singapore

Authors: Y. Lu, X. S. Qin

Abstract:

Extensive rainfall disaggregation approaches have been developed and applied in climate change impact studies such as flood risk assessment and urban storm water management.In this study, five rainfall models that were capable ofdisaggregating daily rainfall data into hourly one were investigated for the rainfall record in theChangi Airport, Singapore. The objectives of this study were (i) to study the temporal characteristics of hourly rainfall in Singapore, and (ii) to evaluate the performance of variousdisaggregation models. The used models included: (i) Rectangular pulse Poisson model (RPPM), (ii) Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular pulse model (BLRPM), (iii) Bartlett-Lewis model with 2 cell types (BL2C), (iv) Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular with cell depth distribution dependent on duration (BLRD), and (v) Neyman-Scott Rectangular pulse model (NSRPM). All of these models werefitted using hourly rainfall data ranging from 1980 to 2005 (which was obtained from Changimeteorological station).The study results indicated that the weight scheme of inversely proportional variance could deliver more accurateoutputs for fitting rainfall patterns in tropical areas, and BLRPM performedrelatively better than other disaggregation models.

Keywords: Rainfall disaggregation, statistical properties, poisson processed, Bartlett-Lewis model, Neyman-Scott model.

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4074 Modeling and Simulation for Physical Vapor Deposition: Multiscale Model

Authors: Jürgen Geiser, Robert Röhle

Abstract:

In this paper we present modeling and simulation for physical vapor deposition for metallic bipolar plates. In the models we discuss the application of different models to simulate the transport of chemical reactions of the gas species in the gas chamber. The so called sputter process is an extremely sensitive process to deposit thin layers to metallic plates. We have taken into account lower order models to obtain first results with respect to the gas fluxes and the kinetics in the chamber. The model equations can be treated analytically in some circumstances and complicated multi-dimensional models are solved numerically with a software-package (UG unstructed grids, see [1]). Because of multi-scaling and multi-physical behavior of the models, we discuss adapted schemes to solve more accurate in the different domains and scales. The results are discussed with physical experiments to give a valid model for the assumed growth of thin layers.

Keywords: Convection-diffusion equations, multi-scale problem, physical vapor deposition, reaction equations, splitting methods.

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4073 Didactic Material Resources in the Teaching of National History and Geography: Selected Results of a Qualitative Survey

Authors: Martin Skutil, Klára Havlíčková, Renata Matějíčková

Abstract:

The paper is the first output of a larger research project conducted at the Faculty of Education of the University of Hradec Králové, which deals with an improved understanding of teachers' work in the subject of National History and Geography. Partial findings focusing on the use of didactic material resources in teaching are presented in this phase. With the regard to promotion of independent activity of students within learner based education, material equipment of schools with didactic aids is becoming increasingly important. This paper is based on qualitative research, where the possibilities and mainly the reasons for use of material didactic resources in teaching were investigated through semi-structured interviews. Attention was focused on ways of working with different teaching aids and their implementation in the educational process. It turns out that teachers accept current constructivist and humanistic approaches to education associated with the requirement to prepare students for life in an information society, and accordingly they adjust their teaching.

Keywords: Primary education, National History and Geography, didactic material resources, qualitative research.

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4072 Design, Development and Analysis of Automated Storage and Retrieval System with Single and Dual Command Dispatching using MATLAB

Authors: M. Aslam, Farrukh, A. R. Gardezi, Nasir Hayat

Abstract:

Automated material handling is given prime importance in the semi automated and automated facilities since it provides solution to the gigantic problems related to inventory and also support the latest philosophies like just in time production JIT and lean production. Automated storage and retrieval system is an antidote (if designed properly) to the facility sufferings like getting the right material , materials getting perished, long cycle times or many other similar kind of problems. A working model of automated storage and retrieval system (AS/RS) is designed and developed under the design parameters specified by Material Handling Industry of America (MHIA). Later on analysis was carried out to calculate the throughput and size of the machine. The possible implementation of this technology in local scenario is also discussed in this paper.

Keywords: Automated storage and retrieval system (AS/RS), Material handling, Computer integrated manufacturing (CIM), Lightdependent resistor (LDR)

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4071 E-government Security Modeling: Explaining Main Factors and Analysing Existing Models

Authors: N. Alharbi

Abstract:

E-government is becoming more important these days. However, the adoption of e-government is often slowed down by technical and non-technical security factors. Nowadays, there many security models that can make the e-government services more secure. This paper will explain the main security factors that affected the level of e-government security. Moreover, it will also analyse current existing models. Finally, the paper will suggest a comprehensive security model that will contain most of technical and non-technical factors.

Keywords: E-government, technical, non-technical, security model.

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4070 Assessing Semantic Consistency of Business Process Models

Authors: Bernhard G. Humm, Janina Fengel

Abstract:

Business process modeling has become an accepted means for designing and describing business operations. Thereby, consistency of business process models, i.e., the absence of modeling faults, is of upmost importance to organizations. This paper presents a concept and subsequent implementation for detecting faults in business process models and for computing a measure of their consistency. It incorporates not only syntactic consistency but also semantic consistency, i.e., consistency regarding the meaning of model elements from a business perspective.

Keywords: Business process modeling, model analysis, semantic consistency, Semantic Web

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4069 What is the Key Element for the Territory's State of Development?

Authors: J. Lonska, V. Boronenko

Abstract:

The result of process of territory-s development is the territory-s state of development (TSoD), which is pointed towards the provision and improvement of people-s life conditions. The authors offer to measure the TSoD according to their own developed model. Using the available statistical data regarding the values of model-s elements, the authors empirically show which element mainly determines the TSoD. The findings of the research showed that the key elements of the TSoD are the “Material welfare of people" and “People-s health". Performing a deeper statistical analysis of correlation between these elements, it turned out that it is not so necessary for a country to be bent on trying to increase the material growth of a territory, because a relatively high index of life expectancy at birth could be ensured also by much more modest material resources. On the other hand, the economical feedback of longer lifespan within countries with lower material performance is also relatively low.

Keywords: Development indices, health, territory's state of development, wealth.

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4068 Fung’s Model Constants for Intracranial Blood Vessel of Human Using Biaxial Tensile Test Results

Authors: Mohammad Shafigh, Nasser Fatouraee, Amirsaied Seddighi

Abstract:

Mechanical properties of cerebral arteries are, due to their relationship with cerebrovascular diseases, of clinical worth. To acquire these properties, eight samples were obtained from middle cerebral arteries of human cadavers, whose death were not due to injuries or diseases of cerebral vessels, and tested within twelve hours after resection, by a precise biaxial tensile test device specially developed for the present study considering the dimensions, sensitivity and anisotropic nature of samples. The resulting stress-stretch curve was plotted and subsequently fitted to a hyperelastic three-parameter Fung model. It was found that the arteries were noticeably stiffer in circumferential than in axial direction. It was also demonstrated that the use of multi-parameter hyperelastic constitutive models is useful for mathematical description of behavior of cerebral vessel tissue. The reported material properties are a proper reference for numerical modeling of cerebral arteries and computational analysis of healthy or diseased intracranial arteries.

Keywords: Anisotropic Tissue, Cerebral Blood Vessels, Fung Model, Nonlinear Material, Plain Stress.

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4067 Calculating Strain Energy in Multi-Surface Models of Cyclic Plasticity

Authors: S. Shahrooi, I. H. Metselaar, Z. Huda

Abstract:

When considering the development of constitutive equations describing the behavior of materials under cyclic plastic strains, different kinds of formulations can be adopted. The primary intention of this study is to develop computer programming of plasticity models to accurately predict the life of engineering components. For this purpose, the energy or cyclic strain is computed in multi-surface plasticity models in non-proportional loading and to present their procedures and codes results.

Keywords: Strain energy, cyclic plasticity model, multi-surface model, codes result.

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4066 Improving the Reusability and Interoperability of E-Learning Material

Authors: D. Del Corso, A. Tartaglia, E. Tresso, M. Cambiolo, L. Forno, G. Morrone

Abstract:

A key requirement for e-learning materials is reusability and interoperability, that is the possibility to use at least part of the contents in different courses, and to deliver them trough different platforms. These features make possible to limit the cost of new packages, but require the development of material according to proper specifications. SCORM (Sharable Content Object Reference Model) is a set of guidelines suitable for this purpose. A specific adaptation project has been started to make possible to reuse existing materials. The paper describes the main characteristics of SCORM specification, and the procedure used to modify the existing material.

Keywords: SCORM, e-learning, standard, educational effectiveness, assessment, methodology, open access.

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4065 A Comparative Analysis of the Performance of COSMO and WRF Models in Quantitative Rainfall Prediction

Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch¨attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju

Abstract:

The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are considered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction. A couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational weather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely the Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the models’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st April 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE) and the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the models, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events and extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default parameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution (7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of largely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The COSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly (p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF model (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model (RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better than the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light rainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events with the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting significantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE: 35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of the models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.

Keywords: Comparative performance, the COSMO model, the WRF model, light rainfall events, extreme rainfall events.

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4064 Comparing and Combining the Axial with the Network Maps for Analyzing Urban Street Pattern

Authors: Nophaket Napong

Abstract:

Rooted in the study of social functioning of space in architecture, Space Syntax (SS) and the more recent Network Pattern (NP) researches demonstrate the 'spatial structures' of city, i.e. the hierarchical patterns of streets, junctions and alley ends. Applying SS and NP models, planners can conceptualize the real city-s patterns. Although, both models yield the optimal path of the city their underpinning displays of the city-s spatial configuration differ. The Axial Map analyzes the topological non-distance-based connectivity structure, whereas, the Central-Node Map and the Shortcut-Path Map, in contrast, analyze the metrical distance-based structures. This research contrasts and combines them to understand various forms of city-s structures. It concludes that, while they reveal different spatial structures, Space Syntax and Network Pattern urban models support each the other. Combining together they simulate the global access and the locally compact structures namely the central nodes and the shortcuts for the city.

Keywords: Street pattern, space syntax, syntactic and metrical models, network pattern models.

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4063 On the Dynamic Model of Service Innovation in Manufacturing Industry

Authors: Yongyoon Suh, Chulhyun Kim, Moon-soo Kim

Abstract:

As the trend of manufacturing is being dominated depending on services, products and processes are more and more related with sophisticated services. Thus, this research starts with the discussion about integration of the product, process, and service in the innovation process. In particular, this paper sets out some foundations for a theory of service innovation in the field of manufacturing, and proposes the dynamic model of service innovation related to product and process. Two dynamic models of service innovation are suggested to investigate major tendencies and dynamic variations during the innovation cycle: co-innovation and sequential innovation. To structure dynamic models of product, process, and service innovation, the innovation stages in which two models are mainly achieved are identified. The research would encourage manufacturers to formulate strategy and planning for service development with product and process.

Keywords: dynamic model, service innovation, service innovation models, innovation cycle, manufacturing industry.

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4062 Group Contribution Parameters for Nonrandom Lattice Fluid Equation of State involving COSMO-RS

Authors: Alexander Breitholz, Wolfgang Arlt, Ki-Pung Yoo

Abstract:

Group contribution based models are widely used in industrial applications for its convenience and flexibility. Although a number of group contribution models have been proposed, there were certain limitations inherent to those models. Models based on group contribution excess Gibbs free energy are limited to low pressures and models based on equation of state (EOS) cannot properly describe highly nonideal mixtures including acids without introducing additional modification such as chemical theory. In the present study new a new approach derived from quantum chemistry have been used to calculate necessary EOS group interaction parameters. The COSMO-RS method, based on quantum mechanics, provides a reliable tool for fluid phase thermodynamics. Benefits of the group contribution EOS are the consistent extension to hydrogen-bonded mixtures and the capability to predict polymer-solvent equilibria up to high pressures. The authors are confident that with a sufficient parameter matrix the performance of the lattice EOS can be improved significantly.

Keywords: COSMO-RS, Equation of State, Group contribution, Lattice Fluid, Phase equilibria.

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4061 Corporate Credit Rating using Multiclass Classification Models with order Information

Authors: Hyunchul Ahn, Kyoung-Jae Kim

Abstract:

Corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has been one of the attractive research topics in the literature. In recent years, multiclass classification models such as artificial neural network (ANN) or multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have become a very appealing machine learning approaches due to their good performance. However, most of them have only focused on classifying samples into nominal categories, thus the unique characteristic of the credit rating - ordinality - has been seldom considered in their approaches. This study proposes new types of ANN and MSVM classifiers, which are named OMANN and OMSVM respectively. OMANN and OMSVM are designed to extend binary ANN or SVM classifiers by applying ordinal pairwise partitioning (OPP) strategy. These models can handle ordinal multiple classes efficiently and effectively. To validate the usefulness of these two models, we applied them to the real-world bond rating case. We compared the results of our models to those of conventional approaches. The experimental results showed that our proposed models improve classification accuracy in comparison to typical multiclass classification techniques with the reduced computation resource.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, Corporate credit rating, Support vector machines, Ordinal pairwise partitioning

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4060 Hydrological Modeling of Watersheds Using the Only Corresponding Competitor Method: The Case of M’Zab Basin, South East Algeria

Authors: Oulad Naoui Noureddine, Cherif ELAmine, Djehiche Abdelkader

Abstract:

Water resources management includes several disciplines; the modeling of rainfall-runoff relationship is the most important discipline to prevent natural risks. There are several models to study rainfall-runoff relationship in watersheds. However, the majority of these models are not applicable in all basins of the world.  In this study, a new stochastic method called The Only Corresponding Competitor method (OCC) was used for the hydrological modeling of M’ZAB   Watershed (South East of Algeria) to adapt a few empirical models for any hydrological regime.  The results obtained allow to authorize a certain number of visions, in which it would be interesting to experiment with hydrological models that improve collectively or separately the data of a catchment by the OCC method.

Keywords: Empirical model, modeling, OCC, rainfall-runoff relationship.

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4059 Estimating Regression Parameters in Linear Regression Model with a Censored Response Variable

Authors: Jesus Orbe, Vicente Nunez-Anton

Abstract:

In this work we study the effect of several covariates X on a censored response variable T with unknown probability distribution. In this context, most of the studies in the literature can be located in two possible general classes of regression models: models that study the effect the covariates have on the hazard function; and models that study the effect the covariates have on the censored response variable. Proposals in this paper are in the second class of models and, more specifically, on least squares based model approach. Thus, using the bootstrap estimate of the bias, we try to improve the estimation of the regression parameters by reducing their bias, for small sample sizes. Simulation results presented in the paper show that, for reasonable sample sizes and censoring levels, the bias is always smaller for the new proposals.

Keywords: Censored response variable, regression, bias.

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4058 Application of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in the Prediction of Economic Crisis Periods in USA

Authors: Eleftherios Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper discrete choice models, Logit and Probit are examined in order to predict the economic recession or expansion periods in USA. Additionally we propose an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with triangular membership function. We examine the in-sample period 1947-2005 and we test the models in the out-of sample period 2006-2009. The forecasting results indicate that the Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model outperforms significant the Logit and Probit models in the out-of sample period. This indicates that neuro-fuzzy model provides a better and more reliable signal on whether or not a financial crisis will take place.

Keywords: ANFIS, discrete choice models, financial crisis, USeconomy

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4057 Statistical Analysis for Overdispersed Medical Count Data

Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

Abstract:

Many researchers have suggested the use of zero inflated Poisson (ZIP) and zero inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models in modeling overdispersed medical count data with extra variations caused by extra zeros and unobserved heterogeneity. The studies indicate that ZIP and ZINB always provide better fit than using the normal Poisson and negative binomial models in modeling overdispersed medical count data. In this study, we proposed the use of Zero Inflated Inverse Trinomial (ZIIT), Zero Inflated Poisson Inverse Gaussian (ZIPIG) and zero inflated strict arcsine models in modeling overdispered medical count data. These proposed models are not widely used by many researchers especially in the medical field. The results show that these three suggested models can serve as alternative models in modeling overdispersed medical count data. This is supported by the application of these suggested models to a real life medical data set. Inverse trinomial, Poisson inverse Gaussian and strict arcsine are discrete distributions with cubic variance function of mean. Therefore, ZIIT, ZIPIG and ZISA are able to accommodate data with excess zeros and very heavy tailed. They are recommended to be used in modeling overdispersed medical count data when ZIP and ZINB are inadequate.

Keywords: Zero inflated, inverse trinomial distribution, Poisson inverse Gaussian distribution, strict arcsine distribution, Pearson’s goodness of fit.

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4056 Design of a Carbon Silicon Electrode for Iontophoresis Treatment towards Alopecia

Authors: Q. Wei, D. G. Hwang, Z. Mohy-Udin, D. H. Shin, J. H. Park, M. Y. Kang, J. H. Cho

Abstract:

This study presents design of a carbon silicon electrode for iontophorsis treatment towards alopecia. The alopecia is a medical description means loss of hair from the body. For solving this problem, the drug need to be delivered into the scalp, therefore, the iontophoresis was chosen to use in this treatment. However, almost common electrodes of iontophoresis device are made with metal material, the electrodes could give patients hurt when they using it, and it is hard to avoid the hair for attaching the hair. For this reason, an electrode is made with silicon material to decrease the hurt from the electrodes, and the carbon material is mixed in it for increasing conductance. The several cones with stainless material on the electrode make the electrode is able to void hair to attach the affected part. According to the results of a vivo-experiment, the carbon silicon electrode showed a good performance and in treatment comfortably.

Keywords: Carbon silicon, drug delivery system, iontophoresis

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