Search results for: market identification

Authors: Omer Farooq, Salman Ahmed Khan, Sadaf Khalid

Abstract:

Modern day stock markets have almost entirely became automated. Even though it means increased profits for the investors by algorithms acting upon the slightest price change in order of microseconds, it also has given birth to many ethical dilemmas in the sense that slightest mistake can cause people to lose all of their livelihoods. This paper reviews one such event that happened on May 06, 2010 in which $1 trillion dollars disappeared from the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We are going to discuss its various aspects and the ethical dilemmas that have arisen due to it.

Keywords: Flash Crash, Market Crash, Stock Market, Stock Market Crash.

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Authors: Yessengeldy Kuanyshpayev

Abstract:

Now in some countries of the world the cellular market is on the point of saturation, in others - positive dynamics of development kept on. The reasons for it are also different, but there are united by their general susceptibility to innovation changes, if they are really innovative. If to take as an example the cellular market of Kazakhstan it is defined by the low percent of smart phones at consumers, the low population density, undercapacity of the 3G channel, and absence of universal access to the LTE technology that limits dynamical growth of this branch. These moments are aggravated by failures of starting commercial projects by private companies which prevent to be implemented and widely adopted to a new product among consumers. The object of the research is possible integration of wireless and program technologies at which introduction the idea can regenerate in an innovation. The analysis of existing projects in the market and the possible union of the technologies through a prism of theoretical bases of innovative activity shows that efficiency of the company by development and introduction of innovations is possible only thanks to strict observance of all terms and conditions of the innovative process which main term is profit. Despite that fact that on a global scale the innovativeness issue of companies is very popular, there are no researches about possibility of innovative breaks in the field of wireless access to the Internet in the cellular market of Kazakhstan.

Keywords: Cellular market, commercialization, innovation, the effectiveness of company.

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Authors: Nadira Kaimova

Abstract:

In this paper it was examined the influence of margin regulation on stock market volatility in EU 1993 – 2014. Regulating margin requirements or haircuts for securities financing transactions has for a long time been considered as a potential tool to limit the build-up of leverage and dampen volatility in financial markets. The margin requirement dictates how much investors can borrow against these securities. Margin can be an important part of investment. Using daily and monthly stock returns and there is no convincing evidence that EU Regulation margin requirements have served to dampen stock market volatility. In this paper was detected the expected negative relation between margin requirements and the amount of margin credit outstanding. Also, it confirmed that changes in margin requirements by the EU regulation have tended to follow than lead changes in market volatility. For the analysis have been used the modified Levene statistics to test whether the standard deviation of stock returns in the 25, 50 and 100 days preceding margin changes is the same as that in the succeeding 25, 50 and 100 days. The analysis started in May 1993 when it was first empowered to set the initial margin requirement and the last sample was in May 2014. To test whether margin requirements influence stock market volatility over the long term, the sample of stock returns was divided into 14 periods, according to the 14 changes in margin requirements.

Keywords: Levene statistic, Margin Regulation, Stock Market, Volatility.

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Authors: V. K. Singh, P. K. Padhy

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This paper describes identification of the two poles unstable SOPDT process, especially with large time delay. A new modified relay feedback identification method for two poles unstable SOPDT process is proposed. Furthermore, for the two poles unstable SOPDT process, an additional Derivative controller is incorporated parallel with relay to relax the constraint on the ratio of delay to the unstable time constant, so that the exact model parameters of unstable processes can be identified. To cope with measurement noise in practice, a low pass filter is suggested to get denoised output signal toimprove the exactness of model parameter of unstable process. PID Lead-lag tuning formulas are derived for two poles unstable (SOPDT) processes based on IMC principle. Simulation example illustrates the effectiveness and the simplicity of the proposed identification and control method.

Keywords: IMC structure, PID Lead-lag controller, Relayfeedback, SOPDT

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Authors: Rebecca Angeles

Abstract:

This qualitative case study seeks to understand and explain the deployment of radio frequency identification (RFID) systems in two countries (i.e., in Taiwan for the adoption of electric scooters and in Finland for supporting glass bottle recycling) using the “Technology-Organization-Environment” theoretical framework. This study also seeks to highlight the relevance and importance of pursuing environmental sustainability in firms and in society in general due to the social urgency of the issues involved.

Keywords: Environmental sustainability, radio frequency identification, technology-organization-environment framework

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Authors: Naveen Virmani, Rajeev Saha, Rajeshwar Sahai

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In today’s market, striving hard has become necessary for the industries to survive due to the intense competition and globalization. In earlier days, there were few sellers and limited numbers of buyers, so customers were having fewer options to buy the product. But today, the market is highly competitive and volatile. Industries are focusing on robotics, advance manufacturing methods like AJM (Abrasive Jet Machining), EDM (Electric Discharge Machining), ECM (Electrochemical Machining) etc., CAD/CAM, CAE to make quality products and market them in shortest possible time. Leagile manufacturing system is ensuring best available solution at minimum cost to meet the market demand. This paper tries to assimilate the concept of Leagile manufacturing system in today’s scenario and evaluating key factors affecting Leagile manufacturing using digraph technique.

Keywords: Agile manufacturing, digraph, lean manufacturing, leagile manufacturing.

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Authors: A. El Behiry, R. N. Zahran, R. Tarabees, E. Marzouk, M. Al-Dubaib

Abstract:

Mastitis is one of the most economic disease affecting dairy cows worldwide. Its classic diagnosis using bacterial culture and biochemical findings is a difficult and prolonged method. In this research, using of matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) permitted identification of different microorganisms with high accuracy and rapidity (only 24 hours for microbial growth and analysis). During the application of MALDI-TOF MS, one hundred twenty strains of Staphylococcus and Streptococcus species isolated from milk of cows affected by clinical and subclinical mastitis were identified, and the results were compared with those obtained by traditional methods as API and VITEK 2 Systems. 37 of totality 39 strains (~95%) of Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) were exactly detected by MALDI TOF MS and then confirmed by a nuc-based PCR technique, whereas accurate identification was observed in 100% (50 isolates) of the coagulase negative staphylococci (CNS) and Streptococcus agalactiae (31 isolates). In brief, our results demonstrated that MALDI-TOF MS is a fast and truthful technique which has the capability to replace conventional identification of several bacterial strains usually isolated in clinical laboratories of microbiology.

Keywords: Identification, mastitis pathogens, mass spectral, phenotypical.

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Authors: Chih-Cheng Kao, Hsin- Hua Chu

Abstract:

This paper mainly proposes an efficient modified particle swarm optimization (MPSO) method, to identify a slidercrank mechanism driven by a field-oriented PM synchronous motor. In system identification, we adopt the MPSO method to find parameters of the slider-crank mechanism. This new algorithm is added with “distance" term in the traditional PSO-s fitness function to avoid converging to a local optimum. It is found that the comparisons of numerical simulations and experimental results prove that the MPSO identification method for the slider-crank mechanism is feasible.

Keywords: Slider-crank mechanism, distance, systemidentification, modified particle swarm optimization.

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Authors: K. Balamurugan, R. Muralisachithanandam, V. Dharmalingam, R. Srikanth

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This paper deals with the optimal choice and allocation of multi FACTS devices in Deregulated power system using Evolutionary Programming method. The objective is to achieve the power system economic generation allocation and dispatch in deregulated electricity market. Using the proposed method, the locations of the FACTS devices, their types and ratings are optimized simultaneously. Different kinds of FACTS devices are simulated in this study such as UPFC, TCSC, TCPST, and SVC. Simulation results validate the capability of this new approach in minimizing the overall system cost function, which includes the investment costs of the FACTS devices and the bid offers of the market participants. The proposed algorithm is an effective and practical method for the choice and allocation of FACTS devices in deregulated electricity market environment. The standard data of IEEE 14 Bus systems has been taken into account and simulated with aid of MAT-lab software and results were obtained.

Keywords: FACTS devices, Optimal allocation, Deregulated electricity market, Evolutionary programming, Mat Lab.

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Fang-Jyun Su

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This paper explores whether stock characteristics influence the herding formation among investors in the US equity market. To extend the research scope of the existing literature, this paper further examines the role that stock risk characteristics play in the US equity market, and the way they influence investors’ decision-making. First, empirical results show that whether general stocks or high-risk stocks, there are no herding behaviors among the investors in the US equity market during the whole research period or during four great events. Moreover, stock characteristics have great influence on investors’ trading decisions. Finally, there is a bidirectional lead-lag relationship of the herding formation between high-risk stocks and low-risk stocks, but the influence of high-risk stocks on the low-risk stocks is stronger than that of low-risk stocks on the high-risk stocks.

Keywords: Stock characteristics, herding formation, investment decision, US equity market, lead-lag relationship.

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Authors: J. Fernandez de Canete, S. Gonzalez-Perez, P. del Saz-Orozco

Abstract:

LABVIEW is a graphical programming language that has its roots in automation control and data acquisition. In this paper we have utilized this platform to provide a powerful toolset for process identification and control of nonlinear systems based on artificial neural networks (ANN). This tool has been applied to the monitoring and control of a lab-scale distillation column DELTALAB DC-SP. The proposed control scheme offers high speed of response for changes in set points and null stationary error for dual composition control and shows robustness in presence of externally imposed disturbance.

Keywords: Distillation, neural networks, LABVIEW, monitoring, identification, control.

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Authors: Mehran Yazdi, Zahra Adelpour, Batoul Bahraini, Yasaman Keshtkar Jahromi

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In this paper we use the property of co-occurrence matrix in finding parallel lines in binary pictures for fingerprint identification. In our proposed algorithm, we reduce the noise by filtering the fingerprint images and then transfer the fingerprint images to binary images using a proper threshold. Next, we divide the binary images into some regions having parallel lines in the same direction. The lines in each region have a specific angle that can be used for comparison. This method is simple, performs the comparison step quickly and has a good resistance in the presence of the noise.

Keywords: Parallel lines detection, co-occurrence matrix, fingerprint identification.

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Authors: Christina Babatsou, Efthimios Zervas

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Since 2008 a new economic crisis is present is the entire planet. This crisis affects several domains of the economic but also of the social life. Consumption decreases due to the lack of necessary resources of households to increase their expenditures. The car manufacturing is one of the main industrial activities in European Union (EU) and the present crisis particularly affects it. The present study examines the correlations between several socio-economic indicators and car market in European Union. The target is to find out the impact of the present economic crisis on the car market in EU.

Keywords: European Union, Passenger cars, Social indicators, Correlations

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Authors: Mehran Nasiri, Ardeshir Poornemat

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to investigate the current and ideal situations of the process of talent identification in Iranian football from the point of view of Iranian instructors of the Asian Football Confederation (AFC). This research was a descriptive-analytical study; in data collection phase a questionnaire was used, whose face validity was confirmed by experts of Physical Education and Sports Science. The reliability of questionnaire was estimated through the use of Cronbach's alpha method (0.91). This study involved 122 participants of Iranian instructors of the AFC who were selected based on stratified random sampling method. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the variables and inferential statistics (Chi-square) were used to test the hypotheses of the study at significant level (p ≤ 0.05). The results of Chi-square test related to the point of view of Iranian instructors of the AFC showed that the grass-roots scientific method was the best way to identify football players (0.001), less than 10 years old were the best ages for talent identification (0.001), the Football Federation was revealed to be the most important organization in talent identification (0.002), clubs were shown to be the most important institution in developing talents (0.001), trained scouts of Football Federation were demonstrated to be the best and most appropriate group for talent identification (0.001), and being referred by the football academy coaches was shown to be the best way to attract talented football players in Iran (0.001). It was also found that there was a huge difference between the current and ideal situation of the process of talent identification in Iranian football from the point of view of Iranian instructors of the AFC. Hence, it is recommended that the policy makers of talent identification for Iranian football provide a comprehensive, clear and systematic model of talent identification and development processes for the clubs and football teams, so that the talent identification process helps to nurture football talents more efficiently.

Keywords: Current situation, talent finding, ideal situation, instructors.

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Authors: E. Krasnova, E. Bulgakova, V. Shchemelinin

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The paper deals with acoustic-spectrographic voice identification method in terms of its performance in non-native language speech. Performance evaluation is conducted by comparing the result of the analysis of recordings containing native language speech with recordings that contain foreign language speech. Our research is based on Tajik and Russian speech of Tajik native speakers due to the character of the criminal situation with drug trafficking. We propose a pilot experiment that represents a primary attempt enter the field.

Keywords: Speaker identification, acoustic-spectrographic method, non-native speech.

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Authors: Mangesh S. Deshpande, Raghunath S. Holambe

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Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficient (MFCC) features are widely used as acoustic features for speech recognition as well as speaker recognition. In MFCC feature representation, the Mel frequency scale is used to get a high resolution in low frequency region, and a low resolution in high frequency region. This kind of processing is good for obtaining stable phonetic information, but not suitable for speaker features that are located in high frequency regions. The speaker individual information, which is non-uniformly distributed in the high frequencies, is equally important for speaker recognition. Based on this fact we proposed an admissible wavelet packet based filter structure for speaker identification. Multiresolution capabilities of wavelet packet transform are used to derive the new features. The proposed scheme differs from previous wavelet based works, mainly in designing the filter structure. Unlike others, the proposed filter structure does not follow Mel scale. The closed-set speaker identification experiments performed on the TIMIT database shows improved identification performance compared to other commonly used Mel scale based filter structures using wavelets.

Keywords: Speaker identification, Wavelet transform, Feature extraction, MFCC, GMM.

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Authors: Laura Lukmanto, Harya Widiputra, Lukas

Abstract:

Studies in economics domain tried to reveal the correlation between stock markets. Since the globalization era, interdependence between stock markets becomes more obvious. The Dynamic Interaction Network (DIN) algorithm, which was inspired by a Gene Regulatory Network (GRN) extraction method in the bioinformatics field, is applied to reveal important and complex dynamic relationship between stock markets. We use the data of the stock market indices from eight countries around the world in this study. Our results conclude that DIN is able to reveal and model patterns of dynamic interaction from the observed variables (i.e. stock market indices). Furthermore, it is also found that the extracted network models can be utilized to predict movement of the stock market indices with a considerably good accuracy.

Keywords: complex dynamic relationship, dynamic interaction network, interactive stock markets, stock market interdependence.

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Authors: N. Jinesh, K. Shankar

Abstract:

This article presents a method of using the one dimensional piezo-electric patch on beam model for structural identification. A hybrid element constituted of one dimensional beam element and a PZT sensor is used with reduced material properties. This model is convenient and simple for identification of beams. Accuracy of this element is first verified against a corresponding 3D finite element model (FEM). The structural identification is carried out as an inverse problem whereby parameters are identified by minimizing the deviation between the predicted and measured voltage response of the patch, when subjected to excitation. A non-classical optimization algorithm Particle Swarm Optimization is used to minimize this objective function. The signals are polluted with 5% Gaussian noise to simulate experimental noise. The proposed method is applied on beam structure and identified parameters are stiffness and damping. The model is also validated experimentally.

Keywords: Structural identification, PZT patches, inverse problem, particle swarm optimization.

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Authors: S. Hma Salah, H. Du, N. Al-Jawad

Abstract:

Ethnicity identification of face images is of interest in many areas of application, but existing methods are few and limited. This paper presents a fusion scheme that uses block-based uniform local binary patterns and Haar wavelet transform to combine local and global features. In particular, the LL subband coefficients of the whole face are fused with the histograms of uniform local binary patterns from block partitions of the face. We applied the principal component analysis on the fused features and managed to reduce the dimensionality of the feature space from 536 down to around 15 without sacrificing too much accuracy. We have conducted a number of preliminary experiments using a collection of 746 subject face images. The test results show good accuracy and demonstrate the potential of fusing global and local features. The fusion approach is robust, making it easy to further improve the identification at both feature and score levels.

Keywords: Ethnicity identification, fusion, local binary patterns, wavelet.

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Authors: R. N. Begum, Ambalika Sharma, G. K. Singh

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Identity theft has serious ramifications beyond data and personal information loss. This necessitates the implementation of robust and efficient user identification systems. Therefore, automatic biometric recognition systems are the need of the hour, and electrocardiogram (ECG)-based systems are unquestionably the best choice due to their appealing inherent characteristics. The Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are the recent state-of-the-art techniques for ECG-based user identification systems. However, the results obtained are significantly below standards, and the situation worsens as the number of users and types of heartbeats in the dataset grows. As a result, this study proposes a highly accurate and resilient ECG-based person identification system using CNN's dense learning framework. The proposed research explores explicitly the caliber of dense CNNs in the field of ECG-based human recognition. The study tests four different configurations of dense CNN which are trained on a dataset of recordings collected from eight popular ECG databases. With the highest False Acceptance Rate (FAR)  of 0.04% and the highest False Rejection Rate (FRR)  of 5%, the best performing network achieved an identification accuracy of 99.94%. The best network is also tested with various train/test split ratios. The findings show that DenseNets are not only extremely reliable, but also highly efficient. Thus, they might also be implemented in real-time ECG-based human recognition systems.

Keywords: Biometrics, dense networks, identification rate, train/test split ratio.

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Authors: P. Prakasam, M. Madheswaran

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A generalized Digital Modulation Identification algorithm for adaptive demodulator has been developed and presented in this paper. The algorithm developed is verified using wavelet Transform and histogram computation to identify QPSK and QAM with GMSK and M–ary FSK modulations. It has been found that the histogram peaks simplifies the procedure for identification. The simulated results show that the correct modulation identification is possible to a lower bound of 5 dB and 12 dB for GMSK and QPSK respectively. When SNR is above 5 dB the throughput of the proposed algorithm is more than 97.8%. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) has been computed to measure the performance of the proposed algorithm and the analysis shows that the probability of detection (Pd) drops rapidly when SNR is 5 dB and probability of false alarm (Pf) is smaller than 0.3. The performance of the proposed algorithm has been compared with existing methods and found it will identify all digital modulation schemes with low SNR.

Keywords: Bit Error rate, Receiver Operating Characteristics, Software Defined Radio, Wavelet Transform.

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Authors: Mohamed Boulouird, Moha M'Rabet Hassani

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In this paper, many techniques for blind identification of moving average (MA) process are presented. These methods utilize third- and fourth-order cumulants of the noisy observations of the system output. The system is driven by an independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) non-Gaussian sequence that is not observed. Two nonlinear optimization algorithms, namely the Gradient Descent and the Gauss-Newton algorithms are exposed. An algorithm based on the joint-diagonalization of the fourth-order cumulant matrices (FOSI) is also considered, as well as an improved version of the classical C(q, 0, k) algorithm based on the choice of the Best 1-D Slice of fourth-order cumulants. To illustrate the effectiveness of our methods, various simulation examples are presented.

Keywords: Cumulants, Identification, MA models, Parameter estimation

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Authors: P. Kanakasabapathy, Radhika. S,

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In the competitive electricity market environment, the profit of the pumped-storage plant in the energy market can be maximized by operating it as a generator, when market clearing price is high and as a pump, to pump water from lower reservoir to upper reservoir, when the price is low. An optimal self-scheduling plan has been developed for a pumped-storage plant, carried out on weekly basis in order to maximize the profit of the plant, keeping into account of all the major uncertainties such as the sudden ancillary service delivery request and the price forecasting errors. For a pumped storage power plant to operate in a real time market successive self scheduling has to be done by considering the forecast of the day-ahead market and the modified reservoir storage due to the ancillary service request of the previous day. Sliding Window Technique has been used for successive self scheduling to ensure profit for the plant.

Keywords: Ancillary services, BPSO, Power System Economics (Electricity markets), Self-Scheduling, Sliding Window Technique.

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Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

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The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: Deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price, energy efficiency and quality.

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Authors: S. Looser, W. Wehrmeyer

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Given the limited research on Small and Mediumsized Enterprises’ (SMEs) contribution to Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and even scarcer research on Swiss SMEs, this paper helps to fill these gaps by enabling the identification of supranational SME parameters. Thus, the paper investigates the current state of SME practices in Switzerland and across 15 other countries. Combining the degree to which SMEs demonstrate an explicit (or business case) approach or see CSR as an implicit moral activity with the assessment of their attributes for “variety of capitalism” defines the framework of this comparative analysis. To outline Swiss small business CSR patterns in particular, 40 SME owner-managers were interviewed. A secondary data analysis of studies from different countries laid groundwork for this comparative overview of small business CSR. The paper identifies Swiss small business CSR as driven by norms, values, and by the aspiration to contribute to society, thus, as an implicit part of the day-to-day business. Similar to most Central European, Mediterranean, Nordic, and Asian countries, explicit CSR is still very rare in Swiss SMEs. Astonishingly, also British and American SMEs follow this pattern in spite of their strong and distinctly liberal market economies. Though other findings show that nationality matters this research concludes that SME culture and an informal CSR agenda are strongly formative and superseding even forces of market economies, nationally cultural patterns, and language. Hence, classifications of countries by their market system, as found in the comparative capitalism literature, do not match the CSR practices in SMEs as they do not mirror the peculiarities of their business. This raises questions on the universality and generalisability of unmediated, explicit management concepts, especially in the context of small firms.

Keywords: CSR, comparative study, cultures of capitalism, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises.

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Authors: Rahib Hidayat Abiyev

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This paper presents the development of recurrent neural network based fuzzy inference system for identification and control of dynamic nonlinear plant. The structure and algorithms of fuzzy system based on recurrent neural network are described. To train unknown parameters of the system the supervised learning algorithm is used. As a result of learning, the rules of neuro-fuzzy system are formed. The neuro-fuzzy system is used for the identification and control of nonlinear dynamic plant. The simulation results of identification and control systems based on recurrent neuro-fuzzy network are compared with the simulation results of other neural systems. It is found that the recurrent neuro-fuzzy based system has better performance than the others.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, neural network, neuro-fuzzy system, control system.

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Authors: Andrea Bellucci, Martina Tofi

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The aim of paper is to analyze business models of bancassurance in Italy for life business. The life insurance business is very developed in the Italian market and banks branches have 80% of the market share. Given its maturity, the life insurance market needs to consolidate its organizational form to allow for the development of non-life business, which nowadays collects few premiums but represents a great opportunity to enlarge the market share of bancassurance using its strength in the distribution channel while the market share of independent agents is decreasing. Starting with the main business model of bancassurance for life business, this paper will analyze the performances of life companies in the Italian market by balance sheet indicators and by main discriminant variables of business models. The study will observe trends from 2013 to 2015 for the Italian market by exploiting a database managed by Associazione Nazionale delle Imprese di Assicurazione (ANIA). The applied approach is based on a bottom-up analysis starting with variables and indicators to define business models’ classification. The statistical classification algorithm proposed by Ward is employed to design business models’ profiles. Results from the analysis will be a representation of the main business models built by their profile related to indicators. In that way, an unsupervised analysis is developed that has the limit of its judgmental dimension based on research opinion, but it is possible to obtain a design of effective business models.

Keywords: Balance sheet indicators, Bancassurance, business models, ward algorithm.

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Authors: Eulálio G. Campelo F., Wolffried Stucky

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The paper introduces and discusses definitions and concepts from the supplier relationship management area. This review has the goal to provide readers with the basic conditions to understand the market mechanisms and the technological developments of the SRM market. Further on, the work gives a picture of the actual business environment in which the SRM vendors are in, and the main trends in the field, based on the main SRM functionalities i.e. e-Procurement, e-Sourcing and Supplier Enablement, which indicates users and software providers the future technological developments and practises that will take place in this area in the next couple of years.

Keywords: Supplier Relationship Management, e-Procurement, e-Sourcing, Supplier Enablement.

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Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

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The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second – 95,3%.

Keywords: Bass model, generalized Bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States.

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Authors: Sasitorn Chetanont

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The objectives of this study are to find out the approaches to promote healthy recreation activities for elderly tourists and develop Bang Nam Phueng Floating Market to be a health tourism attraction. The research methodology was to analyze internal and external situations according to MP-MF and the MCSTEPS principles. As for the results of this study the researcher found that the healthy recreational activities for elderly tourists could be divided in 7 groups; travelling Bang Nam Phueng Floating Market activity, homestay relaxation, arts center platform activity, healthy massage activity, paying homage to a Buddha image activity, herbal joss-stick home activity, making local desserts and food activity.

Keywords: Elderly tourists, recreational activities, Bang Nam Phueng Floating Market.

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