Search results for: investment decision

Authors: Katejarinporn Chaiya, Thawit Janbanklong

Abstract:

The purposes of this study were to design and find users’ satisfaction after using the decision support system for tourism northern part of Thailand, which can provide tourists touristic information and plan their personal voyage. Such information can be retrieved systematically based on personal budget and provinces. The samples of this study were five experts and users 30 persons white collars in Bangkok. This decision support system was designed via ASP.NET. Its database was developed by using MySQL, for administrators are able to effectively manage the database. The application outcome revealed that the innovation works properly as sought in objectives. Specialists and white collars in Bangkok have evaluated the decision support system; the result was satisfactorily positive.

Keywords: Decision Support System, ASP.NET, MySQL.

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Authors: Xiaowen Zhang, Wanda Luen-Wun Siu

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Against the background of President Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin hailing economics at the heart of their bilateral relationship, Putin conveyed that economic cooperation and trade are important to the revitalization of China and Russia. Likewise, President Xi Jinping noted that Russia and China bask in unprecedented great confidence and collaboration. Such amicable relationships may translate into enhanced economic cooperation and Chinese foreign investment in Russia. This paper employed a retrospective review and attempted to analyze Chinese agricultural engagement in Russian Far East, in addition to examining what was dubbed as land grabbing in Russia, probing into the political, economics, and human dimensions on the land debate. Such an analysis is significant as it contributes to the literature on foreign investment in agriculture.

Keywords: Agriculture, Chinese foreign investment, land grabbing, Russian Far East.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This article presents a multiple criteria evaluation approach to uncertainty, vagueness, and imprecision analysis for ranking alternatives with fuzzy data for decision making using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The fighter aircraft evaluation and selection decision making problem is modeled in a fuzzy environment with triangular fuzzy numbers. The fuzzy decision information related to the fighter aircraft selection problem is taken into account in ordering the alternatives and selecting the best candidate. The basic fuzzy TOPSIS procedure steps transform fuzzy decision matrices into matrices of alternatives evaluated according to all decision criteria. A practical numerical example illustrates the proposed approach to the fighter aircraft selection problem.

Keywords: triangular fuzzy number (TFN), multiple criteria decision making analysis, decision making, aircraft selection, MCDMA, fuzzy TOPSIS

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Authors: S. M. Seyedhosseini, A. Makui, M. Ghadami

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Globalization and therefore increasing tight competition among companies, have resulted to increase the importance of making well-timed decision. Devising and employing effective strategies, that are flexible and adaptive to changing market, stand a greater chance of being effective in the long-term. In other side, a clear focus on managing the entire product lifecycle has emerged as critical areas for investment. Therefore, applying wellorganized tools to employ past experience in new case, helps to make proper and managerial decisions. Case based reasoning (CBR) is based on a means of solving a new problem by using or adapting solutions to old problems. In this paper, an adapted CBR model with k-nearest neighbor (K-NN) is employed to provide suggestions for better decision making which are adopted for a given product in the middle of life phase. The set of solutions are weighted by CBR in the principle of group decision making. Wrapper approach of genetic algorithm is employed to generate optimal feature subsets. The dataset of the department store, including various products which are collected among two years, have been used. K-fold approach is used to evaluate the classification accuracy rate. Empirical results are compared with classical case based reasoning algorithm which has no special process for feature selection, CBR-PCA algorithm based on filter approach feature selection, and Artificial Neural Network. The results indicate that the predictive performance of the model, compare with two CBR algorithms, in specific case is more effective.

Keywords: Case based reasoning, Genetic algorithm, Groupdecision making, Product management.

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Authors: Piotr Prewysz-Kwinto

Abstract:

The market of financial instruments with high risk is developing very dynamically in recent years and attracts more and more interest of investors. It consists essentially of two groups of instruments, i.e. derivatives and exchange traded product (ETP), and each year new types are introduced and offered to investors. The aim of this paper is to present the principles concerning financial instruments with high investment risk available on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), because they have quite complex constructions, and to evaluate the development of this market. In order to achieve this aim, statistical data from 2014-2016 was analyzed. The results confirm that the financial instruments with high investment risk available on the WSE constitute a diversified and the most numerous group of financial instruments and attract the most interest of investors. Responsible investing requires, however, a good knowledge of how they work and how they can generate profit to not expose oneself to unexpected losses.

Keywords: Derivatives, exchange traded products, financial instruments, financial market, risk, stock exchange.

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Authors: Siyanda S. Biyela, Willie A. Cronje

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This paper presents a desktop study of comparing two different wave energy to electricity technologies (WECs) using a techno-economic approach. This techno-economic approach forms basis of a framework for rapid comparison of current and future technologies. The approach also seeks to assist in investment and strategic decision making expediting future deployment of wave energy harvesting in South Africa.

Keywords: Cost of energy, tool, wave energy converter, WEC-Sim.

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Authors: Jadwiga R. Ziolkowska

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In this paper, a fuzzy algorithm and a fuzzy multicriteria decision framework are developed and used for a practical question of optimizing biofuels policy making. The methodological framework shows how to incorporate fuzzy set theory in a decision process of finding a sustainable biofuels policy among several policy options. Fuzzy set theory is used here as a tool to deal with uncertainties of decision environment, vagueness and ambiguities of policy objectives, subjectivities of human assessments and imprecise and incomplete information about the evaluated policy instruments.

Keywords: Fuzzy set theory, multi-criteria decision-makingsupport, uncertainties, policy making, biofuels

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Authors: Bright O. Osu, Edikan E. Akpanibah, Chidinma Olunkwa

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In this paper, mean-variance optimization of portfolios with the return of premium clauses in a defined contribution (DC) pension plan with multiple contributors under constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model is studied. The return clauses which permit death members to claim their accumulated wealth are considered, the remaining wealth is not equally distributed by the remaining members as in literature. We assume that before investment, the surplus which includes funds of members who died after retirement adds to the total wealth. Next, we consider investments in a risk-free asset and a risky asset to meet up the expected returns of the remaining members and obtain an optimized problem with the help of extended Hamilton Jacobi Bellman equation. We obtained the optimal investment strategies for the two assets and the efficient frontier of the members by using a stochastic optimal control technique. Furthermore, we studied the effect of the various parameters of the optimal investment strategies and the effect of the risk-averse level on the efficient frontier. We observed that the optimal investment strategy is the same as in literature, secondly, we observed that the surplus decreases the proportion of the wealth invested in the risky asset.

Keywords: DC pension fund, Hamilton Jacobi Bellman equation, optimal investment strategies, stochastic optimal control technique, return of premiums clauses, mean-variance utility.

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Authors: Samsiah Abdul Razak, Daud Mohamad

Abstract:

Molodstov-s soft sets theory was originally proposed as general mathematical tool for dealing with uncertainty problems. The matrix form has been introduced in soft set and some of its properties have been discussed. However, the formulation of soft matrix in group decision making problem only with equal importance weights of criteria, which does not show the true opinion of decision maker on each criteria. The aim of this paper is to propose a method for solving group decision making problem incorporating the importance of criteria by using soft matrices in a more objective manner. The weight of each criterion is calculated by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. An example of house selection process is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Soft set, Soft Matrix, Soft max-min decision making (SMmDM), Analytic hierarchy process (AHP)

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Authors: M. S. Bani, Z. A. Rashid, K. H. K. Hamid, M. E. Harbawi, A.B.Alias, M. J. Aris

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Most Decision Support Systems (DSS) for waste management (WM) constructed are not widely marketed and lack practical applications. This is due to the number of variables and complexity of the mathematical models which include the assumptions and constraints required in decision making. The approach made by many researchers in DSS modelling is to isolate a few key factors that have a significant influence to the DSS. This segmented approach does not provide a thorough understanding of the complex relationships of the many elements involved. The various elements in constructing the DSS must be integrated and optimized in order to produce a viable model that is marketable and has practical application. The DSS model used in assisting decision makers should be integrated with GIS, able to give robust prediction despite the inherent uncertainties of waste generation and the plethora of waste characteristics, and gives optimal allocation of waste stream for recycling, incineration, landfill and composting.

Keywords: Review, decision support system, GIS and waste management.

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Authors: Kasim Terzic, Bernd Neumann

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Scene interpretation systems need to match (often ambiguous) low-level input data to concepts from a high-level ontology. In many domains, these decisions are uncertain and benefit greatly from proper context. This paper demonstrates the use of decision trees for estimating class probabilities for regions described by feature vectors, and shows how context can be introduced in order to improve the matching performance.

Keywords: Classification, Decision Trees, Interpretation, Vision

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Authors: Seung hee Kang, Jee-Hong Kim, Ji Seong Jang,

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The purpose of this study was to investigate relationships between satisfaction with major and career decision efficacy and career attitude maturity of engineering college students by performing correlation analysis. Gender differences in between satisfaction with major and career decision efficacy and career attitude maturity were also examined by T-test. The results T-test revealed gender differences in only career decision efficacy. Male Students scored significantly higher than did female students on career decision efficacy and satisfaction with major. The results of correlation analysis showed a) satisfaction with major were significantly associated with career decision efficacy, b) satisfaction with major were significantly associated with career attitude maturity, and c) career decision efficacy were significantly associated with career attitude maturity. As a result,we found the importance of satisfaction in engineering college students- major studies when deciding their career.

Keywords: Satisfaction with major, career decision efficacy, career attitude maturity, engineering college student.

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Authors: Chee Siong Teh, Chee Peng Lim

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This paper proposes a novel architecture for developing decision support systems. Unlike conventional decision support systems, the proposed architecture endeavors to reveal the decision-making process such that humans' subjectivity can be incorporated into a computerized system and, at the same time, to preserve the capability of the computerized system in processing information objectively. A number of techniques used in developing the decision support system are elaborated to make the decisionmarking process transparent. These include procedures for high dimensional data visualization, pattern classification, prediction, and evolutionary computational search. An artificial data set is first employed to compare the proposed approach with other methods. A simulated handwritten data set and a real data set on liver disease diagnosis are then employed to evaluate the efficacy of the proposed approach. The results are analyzed and discussed. The potentials of the proposed architecture as a useful decision support system are demonstrated.

Keywords: Interactive evolutionary computation, multivariate data projection, pattern classification, topographic map.

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Authors: Zeynep Sener, Mehtap Dursun

Abstract:

Supplier evaluation and selection is one of the most important components of an effective supply chain management system. Due to the expanding competition in healthcare, selecting the right medical device suppliers offers great potential for increasing quality while decreasing costs. This paper proposes a fuzzy decision making approach for medical supplier selection. A real-world medical device supplier selection problem is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed decision methodology.

Keywords: Fuzzy decision making, fuzzy multiple objective programming, medical supply chain, supplier selection.

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Authors: Kamila Janovská, Šárka Vilamová, Petr Besta, Iveta Vozňáková, Roman Kozel

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Quantitative methods of economic decision-making as the methodological base of the so called operational research represent an important set of tools for managing complex economic systems,both at the microeconomic level and on the macroeconomic scale. Mathematical models of controlled and controlling processes allow, by means of artificial experiments, obtaining information foroptimalor optimum approaching managerial decision-making.The quantitative methods of economic decision-making usually include a methodology known as structural analysis -an analysisof interdisciplinary production-consumption relations.

Keywords: economic decision-making, mathematical methods, structuralanalysis, technical coefficient

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Authors: J. Becker, R. Arnold

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The design of distribution logistics has a decisive impact on a company's logistics costs and performance. Hence, such solutions make an essential contribution to corporate success. This article describes a decision support system for analyzing the potential of distribution logistics in terms of logistics costs and performance. In contrast to previous procedures of business process re-engineering (BPR), this method maps distribution logistics holistically under variable distribution structures. Combined with qualitative measures the decision support system will contribute to a more efficient design of distribution logistics.

Keywords: Decision support system distribution logistics, potential analyses, supply chain management.

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Authors: L. Tao, T. J. Sun, Z. H. Li

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The knowledge base of welding defect recognition is essentially incomplete. This characteristic determines that the recognition results do not reflect the actual situation. It also has a further influence on the classification of welding quality. This paper is concerned with the study of a rough set based method to reduce the influence and improve the classification accuracy. At first, a rough set model of welding quality intelligent classification has been built. Both condition and decision attributes have been specified. Later on, groups of the representative multiple compound defects have been chosen from the defect library and then classified correctly to form the decision table. Finally, the redundant information of the decision table has been reducted and the optimal decision rules have been reached. By this method, we are able to reclassify the misclassified defects to the right quality level. Compared with the ordinary ones, this method has higher accuracy and better robustness.

Keywords: intelligent decision, rough set, welding defects, welding quality level

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Authors: P. Sankar, P. James Daniel Paul, Siddhant Sahu

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A brief review of the empirical studies on the methodology of the stock market decision support would indicate that they are at a threshold of validating the accuracy of the traditional and the fuzzy, artificial neural network and the decision trees. Many researchers have been attempting to compare these models using various data sets worldwide. However, the research community is on the way to the conclusive confidence in the emerged models. This paper attempts to use the automotive sector stock prices from National Stock Exchange (NSE), India and analyze them for the intra-sectorial support for stock market decisions. The study identifies the significant variables and their lags which affect the price of the stocks using OLS analysis and decision tree classifiers.

Keywords: Indian Automotive Sector, Stock Market Decisions, Equity Portfolio Analysis, Decision Tree Classifiers, Statistical Data Analysis.

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Authors: Ibidapo O. Akinyemi, Ezekiel F. Adebiyi, Harrison O. D. Longe

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The major goal in defining and examining game scenarios is to find good strategies as solutions to the game. A plausible solution is a recommendation to the players on how to play the game, which is represented as strategies guided by the various choices available to the players. These choices invariably compel the players (decision makers) to execute an action following some conscious tactics. In this paper, we proposed a refinement-based heuristic as a machine learning technique for human-like decision making in playing Ayo game. The result showed that our machine learning technique is more adaptable and more responsive in making decision than human intelligence. The technique has the advantage that a search is astutely conducted in a shallow horizon game tree. Our simulation was tested against Awale shareware and an appealing result was obtained.

Keywords: Decision making, Machine learning, Strategy, Ayo game.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper presents a multiple criteria decision making analysis technique for selecting fighter aircraft for the national air force. The selection of military aircraft is a process consisting of contradictory goals and objectives. When a modern air force needs to choose fighter aircraft to upgrade existing fleets, a multiple criteria decision making analysis and scenario planning for defense acquisition has been put forward. The selection of fighter aircraft for the air defense force is a strategic decision making process, since the purchase or lease of fighter jets, maintenance and operating costs and having a fleet is the biggest cost for the air force. Multiple criteria decision making analysis methods are effectively applied to facilitate decision making from various available options. The selection criteria were determined using the literature on the problem of fighter aircraft selection. The selection of fighter aircraft to be purchased for the air defense forces is handled using a multiple criteria decision making analysis technique that also determines a suitable methodological approach for the defense procurement and fleet upgrade planning process. The aim of this study is to originate an approach to evaluate fighter aircraft alternatives, Su-35, F-35, and TF-X (MMU), based on technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS).

Keywords: Fighter Aircraft, Fighter Aircraft Selection, Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution, TOPSIS, Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis, MCDMA, Su-35, F-35, TF-X (MMU)

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Authors: Cheng-Che Tsai, Huang-Ming Chuang

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of cognitive decision effort in recommendation system, combined with indicators "information quality" and "service quality" from IS success model to exam the awareness of the user for the "recommended system performance". A total of 411 internet user answered a questionnaire assessing their attention of use and satisfaction of recommendation system in internet book store. Quantitative result indicates following research results. First, information quality of recommended system has obvious influence in consumer shopping decision-making process, and the attitude to use the system. Second, in the process of consumer's shopping decision-making, the recommendation system has no significant influence for consumers to pay lower cognitive decision-making effort. Third, e-commerce platform provides recommendations and information is necessary, but the quality of information on user needs must be considered, or they will be other competitors offer homogeneous services replaced.

Keywords: Recommender system, Cognitive decision-making efforts, IS success model, Internet bookstore.

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Authors: K. N. C. Njoku, Chinwendu Best Eleje, Christian Chukwuemeka Nwandu

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One of the problems facing most insurance companies is how best the burden of paying claims to its policy holders can be managed whenever need arises. Hence there is need for the insurer to buy a reinsurance contract in order to reduce risk which will enable the insurer to share the financial burden with the reinsurer. In this paper, the insurer’s and reinsurer’s strategy is investigated under the modified constant elasticity of variance (M-CEV) process and proportional administrative charges. The insurer considered investment in one risky asset and one risk free asset where the risky asset is modeled based on the M-CEV process which is an extension of constant elasticity of variance (CEV) process. Next, a nonlinear partial differential equation in the form of Hamilton Jacobi Bellman equation is obtained by dynamic programming approach. Using power transformation technique and variable change, the explicit solutions of the optimal investment strategy and optimal reinsurance strategy are obtained. Finally, some numerical simulations of some sensitive parameters were obtained and discussed in details where we observed that the modification factor only affects the optimal investment strategy and not the reinsurance strategy for an insurer with exponential utility function.

Keywords: Reinsurance strategy, Hamilton Jacobi Bellman equation, power transformation, M-CEV process, exponential utility.

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Authors: Yongsheng Guo, Xiaoxian Zhu, Mandella Osei-Assibey Bonsu

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This study explores the effects of national culture on consumer behaviour by identifying the characteristics of Chinese consumers’ decision making in Europe. It offers a better understanding of how cultural factors affect consumers’ behaviour, and how consumers make decisions in other nations with different culture. It adopted a grounded theory approach and conducted 24 in-depth interviews. Grounded theory models are developed to link the causal conditions, process, and consequences. Results reveal that some cultural factors including conservatism, emotionality, acquaintance community, long-term orientation and principles affect Chinese consumers when making purchase decisions in Europe. Most Chinese consumers plan and prepare their expenditure and stay in Europe as cultural learners, and purchase durable products or assets as investment, and share their experiences within a community. This study identified potential problems such as political and social environment, complex procedures, and restrictions. This study found that external factors influence internal factors and then internal characters determine consumer behaviour. This study proposes that cultural traits developed in convergence evolution through social selection and Chinese consumers persist most characters but adapt some perceptions and actions overtime in other countries. This study suggests that cultural marketing could be adopted by companies to reflect consumers’ preferences. Agencies, shops, and the authorities could take actions to reduce the complexity and restrictions.

Keywords: National culture, consumer behaviour, cultural marketing, decision making.

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Authors: I. McCulloh, A. Placona, D. Stewart, D. Gause, K. Kiernan, M. Stuart, C. Zinner, L. Cartwright

Abstract:

We find in our data that an alarming number of viable deceased donor kidneys are discarded every year in the US, while waitlisted candidates are dying every day. We observe as many as 85% of transplanted organs are refused at least once for a patient that scored higher on the match list. There are hundreds of clinical variables involved in making a clinical transplant decision and there is rarely an ideal match. Decision makers exhibit an optimism bias where they may refuse an organ offer assuming a better match is imminent. We propose a semi-parametric Cox proportional hazard model, augmented by an accelerated failure time model based on patient-specific suitable organ supply and demand to estimate a time-to-next-offer. Performance is assessed with Cox-Snell residuals and decision curve analysis, demonstrating improved decision support for up to a 5-year outlook. Providing clinical decision-makers with quantitative evidence of likely patient outcomes (e.g., time to next offer and the mortality associated with waiting) may improve decisions and reduce optimism bias, thus reducing discarded organs and matching more patients on the waitlist.

Keywords: Decision science, KDPI, optimism bias, organ transplant.

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Authors: Christiono Utomo, Arazi Idrus, Madzlan Napiah, Mohd. Faris Khamidi

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This paper presents a conceptual model of agreement options for negotiation support in multi-person decision on optimizing high-rise building columns. The decision is complicated since many parties involved in choosing a single alternative from a set of solutions. There are different concern caused by differing preferences, experiences, and background. Such building columns as alternatives are referred to as agreement options which are determined by identifying the possible decision maker group, followed by determining the optimal solution for each group. The group in this paper is based on three-decision makers preferences that are designer, programmer, and construction manager. Decision techniques applied to determine the relative value of the alternative solutions for performing the function. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied for decision process and game theory based agent system for coalition formation. An n-person cooperative game is represented by the set of all players. The proposed coalition formation model enables each agent to select individually its allies or coalition. It further emphasizes the importance of performance evaluation in the design process and value-based decision.

Keywords: Agreement options, coalition, group choice, game theory, building columns selection.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This article presents a new approach to uncertainty, vagueness, and imprecision analysis for ranking alternatives with fuzzy data for decision making using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). In the proposed approach, fuzzy decision information related to the aircraft selection problem is taken into account in ranking the alternatives and selecting the best one. The basic procedural step is to transform the fuzzy decision matrices into matrices of alternatives evaluated according to all decision criteria. A numerical example illustrates the proposed approach for the military combat aircraft selection problem.

Keywords: trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, multiple criteria decision making analysis, decision making, aircraft selection, MCDMA, fuzzy TOPSIS

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Authors: Nhien-An Le-Khac, Sammer Markos, M-Tahar Kechadi

Abstract:

Today, money laundering (ML) poses a serious threat not only to financial institutions but also to the nation. This criminal activity is becoming more and more sophisticated and seems to have moved from the cliché of drug trafficking to financing terrorism and surely not forgetting personal gain. Most international financial institutions have been implementing anti-money laundering solutions (AML) to fight investment fraud. However, traditional investigative techniques consume numerous man-hours. Recently, data mining approaches have been developed and are considered as well-suited techniques for detecting ML activities. Within the scope of a collaboration project for the purpose of developing a new solution for the AML Units in an international investment bank, we proposed a data mining-based solution for AML. In this paper, we present a heuristics approach to improve the performance for this solution. We also show some preliminary results associated with this method on analysing transaction datasets.

Keywords: data mining, anti money laundering, clustering, heuristics.

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Authors: Alexander P. Eremeev, Ivan E. Kurilenko, Pavel R. Varshavskiy

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In this paper the problem of the application of temporal reasoning and case-based reasoning in intelligent decision support systems is considered. The method of case-based reasoning with temporal dependences for the solution of problems of real-time diagnostics and forecasting in intelligent decision support systems is described. This paper demonstrates how the temporal case-based reasoning system can be used in intelligent decision support systems of the car access control. This work was supported by RFBR.

Keywords: Analogous reasoning, case-based reasoning, intelligent decision support systems, temporal reasoning.

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Authors: D. Danesh, M. J. Ryan, A. Abbasi

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Project Portfolio Management (PPM) is an essential component of an organisation’s strategic procedures, which requires attention of several factors to envisage a range of long-term outcomes to support strategic project portfolio decisions. To evaluate overall efficiency at the portfolio level, it is essential to identify the functionality of specific projects as well as to aggregate those findings in a mathematically meaningful manner that indicates the strategic significance of the associated projects at a number of levels of abstraction. PPM success is directly associated with the quality of decisions made and poor judgment increases portfolio costs. Hence, various Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques have been designed and employed to support the decision-making functions. This paper reviews possible options to enhance the decision-making outcomes in organisational portfolio management processes using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) both from academic and practical perspectives and will examine the usability, certainty and quality of the technique. The results of the study will also provide insight into the technical risk associated with current decision-making model to underpin initiative tracking and strategic portfolio management.

Keywords: Analytic hierarchy process, decision support systems, multi-criteria decision-making, project portfolio management.

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Authors: B. Vahdani, S. M. Mousavi, R. Tavakkoli-Moghaddam

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Nowadays, the plant location selection has a critical impact on the performance of numerous companies. In this paper, a methodology is presented to solve this problem. The three decision making methods, namely Delphi, AHP and improved VIKOR, are hybridized in order to make the best use of information available based on the decision makers or experts. In this respect, the aim of using Delphi is to select the most influential criteria by a few decision makers. The AHP is utilized to give weights of the selected criteria. Finally, the improved VIKOR method is applied to rank alternatives. At the end of paper, an application example demonstrates the applicability of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: Decision making, Plant location selection, Delphi, AHP, Improved VIKOR.

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