Search results for: interest rate risk

Authors: Hasimah Sapiri, Anton Abdulbasah Kamil, Razman Mat Tahar, Hanafi Tumin

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Salary risk and demographic risk have been identified as main risks in analyzing pension expenditure particularly in Defined Benefit pension plan. Therefore, public pension plan in Malaysia is studied to analyze pension expenditure due to salary and demographic risk. Through the literature review and interview session with several officers in public sector, factors affecting pension expenditure are determined. Then, the inter-relationships between these factors are analyzed through causal loop diagram. The System Dynamics model is later developed using iThink software to show how demographic and salary changes affect the pension expenditure. Then, by using actual data, the impact of different policy scenarios on pension expenditure is analyzed. It is shown that dynamics simulation model of pension expenditure is useful to evaluate the impact of changes and policy decisions on risk particularly involving demographic and salary risk.

Keywords: Demographic and Salary risk, Pension Expenditure, Public Policy, System Dynamics.

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Authors: R. A. Temah, L. A. Nkengla-Asi

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Planning for future disasters sets the stage for a variety of activities that may trigger multiple recurring operations and expose the community to opportunities to minimize risks. Local communities are increasingly embracing the necessity for planning based on local risks, but are also significantly challenged to effectively plan and response to disasters. This research examines basic risk-based disaster planning model and compares it with advanced risk-based planning that introduces the identification and alignment of varieties of local capabilities within and out of the local community that can be pivotal to facilitate the management of local risks and cascading effects prior to a disaster. A critical review shows that the identification and alignment of capabilities can potentially enhance risk-based disaster planning. A tailored holistic approach to risk based disaster planning is pivotal to enhance collective action and a reduction in disaster collective cost.

Keywords: Capabilities, disaster planning, hazards, local community, risk-based.

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Authors: U. K. Vishwakarma , A. Dvivedi, P. Kumar

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Metal matrix composites (MMC) are generating extensive interest in diverse fields like defense, aerospace, electronics and automotive industries. In this present investigation, material removal rate (MRR) modeling has been carried out using an axisymmetric model of Al-SiC composite during electrical discharge machining (EDM). A FEA model of single spark EDM was developed to calculate the temperature distribution.Further, single spark model was extended to simulate the second discharge. For multi-discharge machining material removal was calculated by calculating the number of pulses. Validation of model has been done by comparing the experimental results obtained under the same process parameters with the analytical results. A good agreement was found between the experimental results and the theoretical value.

Keywords: Electrical Discharge Machining, FEA, Metal matrix composites, Multi-discharge

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Authors: Ya-Fen Lee, Yun-Yao Chi

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The study aims to explore the relationship between risk perception of rockfall and revisit intention using a Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) analysis. A total of 573 valid questionnaires are collected from travelers to Taroko National Park, Taiwan. The findings show the majority of travelers have the medium perception of rockfall risk, and are willing to revisit the Taroko National Park. The revisit intention to Taroko National Park is influenced by hazardous preferences, willingness-to-pay, obstruction and attraction. The risk perception has an indirect effect on revisit intention through influencing willingness-to-pay. The study results can be a reference for mitigation the rockfall disaster.

Keywords: Risk perception, rockfall, revisit intention, structural equation modeling.

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Authors: Morakot Worachairungreung

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The objectives of the research are to study patterns of fire location distribution and develop techniques of Geographic Information System application in fire risk assessment for fire planning and management. Fire risk assessment was based on two factors: the vulnerability factor such as building material types, building height, building density and capacity for mitigation factor such as accessibility by road, distance to fire station, distance to hydrants and it was obtained from four groups of stakeholders including firemen, city planners, local government officers and local residents. Factors obtained from all stakeholders were converted into Raster data of GIS and then were superimposed on the data in order to prepare fire risk map of the area showing level of fire risk ranging from high to low. The level of fire risk was obtained from weighted mean of each factor based on the stakeholders. Weighted mean for each factor was obtained by Analytical Hierarchy Analysis.

Keywords: Fire Risk Assessment, Geographic Information System: GIS, Raster Analysis and Analytical Hierarchy Analysis.

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Authors: Mike Sewell, Jagath Samarabandu, Ranga Rodrigo, Kenneth McIsaac

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A novel method of individual level adaptive mutation rate control called the rank-scaled mutation rate for genetic algorithms is introduced. The rank-scaled mutation rate controlled genetic algorithm varies the mutation parameters based on the rank of each individual within the population. Thereby the distribution of the fitness of the papulation is taken into consideration in forming the new mutation rates. The best fit mutate at the lowest rate and the least fit mutate at the highest rate. The complexity of the algorithm is of the order of an individual adaptation scheme and is lower than that of a self-adaptation scheme. The proposed algorithm is tested on two common problems, namely, numerical optimization of a function and the traveling salesman problem. The results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms both the fixed and deterministic mutation rate schemes. It is best suited for problems with several local optimum solutions without a high demand for excessive mutation rates.

Keywords: Genetic algorithms, mutation rate control, adaptive mutation.

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Authors: Jin Sung Kim, Hoon Huh

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The material properties of OFHC copper film was investigated with the High-Speed Material Micro Testing Machine (HSMMTM) at the high strain rates. The rate-dependent stress-strain curves from the experiment and the Johnson−Cook curve fitting showed large discrepancies as the plastic strain increases since the constitutive model implies no rate-dependent strain hardening effect. A new constitutive model was proposed in consideration of rate-dependent strain hardening effect. The strain rate hardening term in the new constitutive model consists of the strain rate sensitivity coefficients of the yield strength and strain hardening.

Keywords: Rate dependent material properties, Dynamic constitutive model, OFHC copper film, Strain rate.

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Authors: N. Hatraf, N. Moummi

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The interest in air conditioning using renewable energies is increasing. The thermal energy produced from the solar energy can be converted to useful cooling and heating through the thermochemical or thermophysical processes by using thermally activated energy conversion systems. The ambient air contains so much water that very high dehumidification rates are required. For a continuous dehumidification of the process air, the water adsorbed on the desiccant material has to be removed, which is done by allowing hot air to flow through the desiccant material (regeneration). A solid desiccant cooling system transfers moisture from the inlet air to the silica gel by using two processes: Absorption process and the regeneration process. The main aim of this paper is to study how the dehumidification rate, the generation temperature and many other factors influence the efficiency of a solid desiccant system by using TRNSYS software. The results show that the desiccant system could be used to decrease the humidity rate of the entering air.

Keywords: Dehumidification, efficiency, humidity, TRNSYS.

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Authors: Maithem Al-Saadi, Min An

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During airport planning and design stages, the major issues of capacity and safety in construction and operation of an airport need to be taken into consideration. The airside of an airport is a major and critical infrastructure that usually consists of runway(s), taxiway system, and apron(s) etc., which have to be designed according to the international standards and recommendations, and local limitations to accommodate the forecasted demands. However, in many cases, airport airsides are suffering from unexpected risks that occurred during airport operations. Therefore, safety risk assessment should be applied in the planning and design of airsides to cope with the probability of risks and their consequences, and to make decisions to reduce the risks to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) based on safety risk assessment. This paper presents a combination approach of Failure Modes, Effect, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Fuzzy Reasoning Approach (FRA), and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) to develop a risk analysis model for safety risk assessment. An illustrated example is used to the demonstrate risk assessment process on how the design of an airside in an airport can be analysed by using the proposed safety design risk assessment model.

Keywords: Airport airside planning and design, design for safety, fuzzy reasoning approach, fuzzy AHP, risk assessment.

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Authors: Chung-Hung Tsai

Abstract:

Global environmental changes lead to increased frequency and scale of natural disaster, Taiwan is under the influence of global warming and extreme weather. Therefore, the vulnerability was increased and variability and complexity of disasters is relatively enhanced. The purpose of this study is to consider the source and magnitude of hazard characteristics on the tourism industry. Using modern risk management concepts, integration of related domestic and international basic research, this goes beyond the Taiwan typhoon disaster risk assessment model and evaluation of loss. This loss evaluation index system considers the impact of extreme weather, in particular heavy rain on the tourism industry in Taiwan. Consider the extreme climate of the compound impact of disaster for the tourism industry; we try to make multi-hazard risk assessment model, strategies and suggestions. Related risk analysis results are expected to provide government department, the tourism industry asset owners, insurance companies and banking include tourist disaster risk necessary information to help its tourism industry for effective natural disaster risk management.

Keywords: Tourism industry, extreme weather, multi-hazard, vulnerability analysis, loss exceeding probability, risk management.

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Authors: A. Pontrandolfi, G. Enjolras, F. Capitanio

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The study analyses the strategies Italian farmers use to cope with the risks that face their production. We specifically explore the potential and the limitations of the economic tools for climatic risk management in agriculture of the Common Agricultural Policy 2014-2020, that foresees contributions for economic tools for risk management, in relation to farms’ needs, exposure and vulnerability of agricultural areas to climatic risk. We consider at the farm level approaches to hedge risks in terms of the use of technical tools (agricultural practices, pesticides, fertilizers, irrigation) and economic/financial instruments (insurances, etc.). We develop cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses as well as analyses of correlation that underline the main differences between the way farms adapt their structure and management towards risk. The results show a preference for technical tools, despite the presence of important public aids on economic tools such as insurances. Therefore, there is a strong need for a more effective and integrated risk management policy scheme. Synergies between economic tools and risk reduction actions of a more technical, structural and management nature (production diversification, irrigation infrastructures, technological and management innovations and formation-information-consultancy, etc.) are emphasized.

Keywords: Agriculture and climate change, climatic risk management, insurance schemes.

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Authors: Elena M. Capitanul, Carlos A. Nunes Cosenza, Walid El Moudani, Felix Mora Camino

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The construction of a new airport or the extension of an existing one requires massive investments and many times public private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects. While many airport development projects have been a success, some others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters. This communication puts forward a new approach for airport investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An illustration of the proposed approach is provided.

Keywords: Airports, fuzzy logic, risk, uncertainty.

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater.

In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: Drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement.

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Authors: Siripen Yiamjanya, Kevin Wongleedee

Abstract:

Food safety is an important concern for holiday makers in foreign and unfamiliar tourist destinations. In fact, risk from food in these tourist destinations has an influence on tourist perception. This risk can potentially affect physical health and lead to an inability to pursue planned activities. The objective of this paper was to compare foreign tourists- demographics including gender, age and education level, with the level of perceived risk towards food safety. A total of 222 foreign tourists during their stay at Khao San Road in Bangkok were used as the sample. Independent- samples ttest, analysis of variance, and Least Significant Difference or LSD post hoc test were utilized. The findings revealed that there were few demographic differences in level of perceived risk among the foreign tourists. The post hoc test indicated a significant difference among the old and the young tourists, and between the higher and lower level of education. Ranks of tourists- perceived risk towards food safety unveiled some interesting results. Tourists- perceived risk of food safety in established restaurants can be ranked as i) cleanliness of dining utensils, ii) sanitation of food preparation area, and iii) cleanliness of food seasoning and ingredients. Whereas, the tourists- perceived risk of food safety in street food and drink can be ranked as i) cleanliness of stalls and pushcarts, ii) cleanliness of food sold, and iii) personal hygiene of street food hawkers or vendors.

Keywords: Food Safety, Foreign Tourists, Perceived Risk, Khao San Road.

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

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Information system risk management helps to reduce or eliminate risk by implementing appropriate controls. In this paper, we propose a quantification model of controls impact on information system risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA which is based on a inductive reasoning. For this, we defined three equations based on type and maturity of controls. For testing, the values obtained with the model were compared to estimated values given by interlocutors during different working sessions and the result is satisfactory. This model allows an optimal assessment of controls maturity and facilitates risk analysis of information system.

Keywords: Information System, Risk, Control, FMECA.

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Authors: J. K. Visser, H. T. Malan

Abstract:

A need exists to identify the sources of risks associated with the process automation systems within petrochemical companies or similar energy related industries. These companies use many different process automation technologies in its value chain. A crucial part of the process automation system is the information technology component featuring in the supervisory control layer. The ever-changing technology within the process automation layers and the rate at which it advances pose a risk to safe and predictable automation system performance. The age of the automation equipment also provides challenges to the operations and maintenance managers of the plant due to obsolescence and unavailability of spare parts. The main objective of this research was to determine the risk sources associated with the equipment that is part of the process automation systems. A secondary objective was to establish whether technology managers and technicians were aware of the risks and share the same viewpoint on the importance of the risks associated with automation systems. A conceptual model for risk sources of automation systems was formulated from models and frameworks in literature. This model comprised six categories of risk which forms the basis for identifying specific risks. This model was used to develop a questionnaire that was sent to 172 instrument technicians and technology managers in the company to obtain primary data. 75 completed and useful responses were received. These responses were analyzed statistically to determine the highest risk sources and to determine whether there was difference in opinion between technology managers and technicians. The most important risks that were revealed in this study are: 1) the lack of skilled technicians, 2) integration capability of third-party system software, 3) reliability of the process automation hardware, 4) excessive costs pertaining to performing maintenance and migrations on process automation systems, and 5) requirements of having third-party communication interfacing compatibility as well as real-time communication networks.

Keywords: Distributed control system, identification of risks, information technology, process automation system.

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Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

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Electricity has an indispensable role in human daily life, technological development and economy. It is a special product or service that should be instantaneously generated and consumed. Sources of the world are limited so that effective and efficient use of them is very important not only for human life and environment but also for technological and economic development. Competitive electricity market is one of the important way that provides suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. Besides benefits, it brings along some risks that should be carefully managed by a market player like Electricity Generation Company. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Value at Risk methods for case studies. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and the portfolio performance has been evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and compared with conventional approach. Biennial historical electricity price data of Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: Electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management, Sharpe ratio, value at risk.

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Authors: Chimaobi V. Okolo, Onyinye S. Ugwuanyi, Kenneth A. Okpala

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This study evaluated the effect of exchange rate volatility on the manufacturing sector of Nigeria. The flow and stock market theories of exchange rate determination was adopted considering macroeconomic determinants such as balance of trade, trade openness, and net international investment. Furthermore, the influence of changes in parallel exchange rate, official exchange rate and real effective exchange rate was modeled on the manufacturing sector output. Vector autoregression techniques and vector error correction mechanism were adopted to explore the macroeconomic determinants of exchange rate fluctuation in Nigeria and to examine the influence of exchange rate volatility on the manufacturing sector output in Nigeria. The exchange rate showed an unstable and volatile movement in Nigeria. Official exchange rate significantly impacted on the manufacturing sector of Nigeria and shock to previous manufacturing sector output caused 60.76% of the fluctuation in the manufacturing sector output in Nigeria. Trade balance, trade openness and net international investments did not significantly determine exchange rate in Nigeria. However, own shock accounted for about 95% of the variation of exchange rate fluctuation in the short-run and long-run. Among other macroeconomic variables, net international investment accounted for about 2.85% variation of the real effective exchange rate fluctuation in the short-run and in the long-run. Monetary authorities should maintain stability of the exchange rates through proper management so as to encourage local production and government should formulate and implement policies that will develop other sectors of the economy as this will widen the country’s revenue base, reduce our over reliance on oil sector for our foreign exchange earnings and in turn reduce the shocks on our domestic economy.

Keywords: Exchange rate volatility, exchange rate determinants, manufacturing sector, official exchange rate, parallel exchange rate, real effective exchange rate.

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Authors: Kevin Fong-Rey Liu, Ken Yeh, Cheng-Wu Chen, Han-Hsi Liang

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The sanitary sewerage connection rate becomes an important indicator of advanced cities. Following the construction of sanitary sewerages, the maintenance and management systems are required for keeping pipelines and facilities functioning well. These maintenance tasks often require sewer workers to enter the manholes and the pipelines, which are confined spaces short of natural ventilation and full of hazardous substances. Working in sewers could be easily exposed to a risk of adverse health effects. This paper proposes the use of Bayesian belief networks (BBN) as a higher level of noncarcinogenic health risk assessment of sewer workers. On the basis of the epidemiological studies, the actual hospital attendance records and expert experiences, the BBN is capable of capturing the probabilistic relationships between the hazardous substances in sewers and their adverse health effects, and accordingly inferring the morbidity and mortality of the adverse health effects. The provision of the morbidity and mortality rates of the related diseases is more informative and can alleviate the drawbacks of conventional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian belief networks, sanitary sewerage, healthrisk assessment, hazard quotient, target organ-specific hazard index.

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Authors: B. Skrabic, N. Tomic-Plazibat

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In this paper real money demand function is analyzed within multivariate time-series framework. Cointegration approach is used (Johansen procedure) assuming interdependence between money demand determinants, which are nonstationary variables. This will help us to understand the behavior of money demand in Croatia, revealing the significant influence between endogenous variables in vector autoregrression system (VAR), i.e. vector error correction model (VECM). Exogeneity of the explanatory variables is tested. Long-run money demand function is estimated indicating slow speed of adjustment of removing the disequilibrium. Empirical results provide the evidence that real industrial production and exchange rate explains the most variations of money demand in the long-run, while interest rate is significant only in short-run.

Keywords: Cointegration, Long-run equilibrium, Money demand function, Vector error correction model.

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Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Nineta Polemi

Abstract:

Evaluating the levels of cyber-security risks within an enterprise is most important in protecting its information system, services and all its digital assets against security incidents (e.g. accidents, malicious acts, massive cyber-attacks). The existing risk assessment methodologies (e.g. eBIOS, OCTAVE, CRAMM, NIST-800) adopt a technical approach considering as attack factors only the capability, intention and target of the attacker, and not paying attention to the attacker’s psychological profile and personality traits. In this paper, a socio-technical approach is proposed in cyber risk assessment, in order to achieve more realistic risk estimates by considering the personality traits of the attackers. In particular, based upon principles from investigative psychology and behavioural science, a multi-dimensional, extended, quantifiable model for an attacker’s profile is developed, which becomes an additional factor in the cyber risk level calculation.

Keywords: Attacker, behavioural models, cyber risk assessment, cyber-security, human factors, investigative psychology, ISO27001, ISO27005.

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Authors: N. W. Paul, M. Banerjee

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Discussing the nexus between global health policy and local practices, this article addresses the recent Ebola outbreak as a role model for narrative co-constructions of epidemic risk. We will demonstrate in how far a theory-driven and methodologically rooted analysis of narrativity can help to improve mechanisms of prevention and intervention whenever epidemic risk needs to be addressed locally in order to contribute to global health. Analyzing the narrative transformation of Ebola, we will also address issues of transcultural problem-solving and of normative questions at stake. In this regard, we seek to contribute to a better understanding of a key question of global health and justice as well as to the underlying ethical questions. By highlighting and analyzing the functions of narratives, this paper provides a translational approach to refine our practices by which we address epidemic risk, be it on the national, the transnational or the global scale.

Keywords: Ebola, Epidemic Risk, Medical Ethics, Medical Humanities.

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Authors: Eduardo C. Guardia, Jose W. M. Lima, Afonso H. M. Santos

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This paper presents a nonparametric method to obtain the hazard rate “Bathtub curve” for power system components. The model is a mixture of the three known phases of a component life, the decreasing failure rate (DFR), the constant failure rate (CFR) and the increasing failure rate (IFR) represented by three parametric Weibull models. The parameters are obtained from a simultaneous fitting process of the model to the Kernel nonparametric hazard rate curve. From the Weibull parameters and failure rate curves the useful lifetime and the characteristic lifetime were defined. To demonstrate the model the historic time-to-failure of distribution transformers were used as an example. The resulted “Bathtub curve” shows the failure rate for the equipment lifetime which can be applied in economic and replacement decision models.

Keywords: Bathtub curve, failure analysis, lifetime estimation, parameter estimation, Weibull distribution.

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Authors: Lamia Hammadi, Abdellah Ait Ouhman, Aomar Ibourk

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It is widely assumed that the case of Customs Supply Chain is classified as a complex system, due to not only the variety and large number of actors, but also their complex structural links, and the interactions between these actors, that’s why this system is subject to various types of Risks. The economic, political and social impacts of those risks are highly detrimental to countries, businesses and the public, for this reason, Risk management in the customs supply chain is becoming a crucial issue to ensure the sustainability, security and safety. The main characteristic of customs risk management approach is determining which goods and means of transport should be examined? To what extend? And where future compliance resources should be directed? The purposes of this article are, firstly to deal with the concept of customs supply chain, secondly present our risk management approach based on Cross Activity Based Costing (ABC) Method as an interactive tool to support decision making in customs risk management. Finally, analysis of case study of Moroccan customs to putting theory into practice and will thus draw together the various elements of a structured and efficient risk management approach.

Keywords: Cross ABC Method, Customs Supply Chain, Risk, Risk Management.

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Authors: L. Labéjof, I. Mororó, P. Galle, G. Barbosa, M.I. Severo, A.H. de Oliveira

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Ultrastructure of duodenum mucosa of irradiated rat was studied versus dose rate of irradiation following exposure to gamma rays from 60-Cobalt source. The animals were whole body irradiated at two dose rates (1 Gy.mn-1 and 1 Gy.h-1) and three total doses (1, 2 or 4 Gy) for each dose rate. 24 or 48 h after irradiation, their small intestine was removed and samples of duodenum were processed for observations under a transmission electron microscopy. Samples of duodenum mucosa of control rats were processed in the same way. For the lower dose rate of 1 Gy.h-1, main lesions characteristic of apoptosis were detected within irradiated enterocytes at a total dose of 2 Gy and 24 h after exposure. Necrosis was noted in the samples, 48 h after exposition. For the higher dose rate of 1 Gy.mn-1, fewer changes were detected at all total doses 24 or 48 h irradiation. Thus, it was shown that the appearance of radiationinduced alterations varies not only with increasing total dose and post-irradiation time but especially with decreasing dose rate.

Keywords: Dose rate, Radiation Inury, Apoptosis, SmallBowel

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Authors: Pitsanu Tongkhow, Pichet Jiraprasertwong

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This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.

Keywords: Defective autoparts products, Bayesian framework, Generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), Risk factors.

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Authors: Larisa N. Pop, Irina M. Ban

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This paper aims to present the main instruments used in the economic literature for measuring the price risk, pointing out on the advantages brought by the conditional variance in this respect. The theoretical approach will be exemplified by elaborating an EGARCH model for the price returns of wheat, both on Romanian and on international market. To our knowledge, no previous empirical research, either on price risk measurement for the Romanian markets or studies that use the ARIMA-EGARCH methodology, have been conducted. After estimating the corresponding models, the paper will compare the estimated conditional variance on the two markets.

Keywords: conditional variance, GARCH models, price risk, volatility

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Authors: Susannah G. Fleming Lionel Tarassenko

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The photoplethysmogram (PPG) is the pulsatile waveform produced by the pulse oximeter, which is widely used for monitoring arterial oxygen saturation in patients. Various methods for extracting the breathing rate from the PPG waveform have been compared using a consistent data set, and a novel technique using autoregressive modelling is presented. This novel technique is shown to outperform the existing techniques, with a mean error in breathing rate of 0.04 breaths per minute.

Keywords: Autoregressive modelling, breathing rate, photoplethysmogram, pulse oximetry.

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Authors: Samuel Capintero, Ole H. Petersen

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This paper examines the utilization of public-private partnerships for the building and operation of wastewater treatment plants. Our research focuses on risk allocation in this kind of projects. Our analysis builds on more than hundred wastewater treatment plants built and operated through PPP projects in Aragon (Spain). The paper illustrates the consequences of an inadequate management of construction risk and an unsuitable transfer of demand risk in wastewater treatment plants. It also shows that the involvement of many public bodies at local, regional and national level further increases the complexity of this kind of projects and make time delays more likely.

Keywords: Wastewater, treatment plants, PPP, construction.

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Authors: Yu-Jen Chang, Yun Chen, Hei-Lam Wong

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The Economic Lot Scheduling Problem (ELSP) is a valuable mathematical model that can support decision-makers to make scheduling decisions. The basic period approach is effective for solving the ELSP. The assumption for applying the basic period approach is that a product must use its maximum production rate to be produced. However, a product can lower its production rate to reduce the average total cost when a facility has extra idle time. The past researches discussed how a product adjusts its production rate under the common cycle approach. To the best of our knowledge, no studies have addressed how a product lowers its production rate under the basic period approach. This research is the first paper to discuss this topic. The research develops a simple fixed rate approach that adjusts the production rate of a product under the basic period approach to solve the ELSP. Our numerical example shows our approach can find a better solution than the traditional basic period approach. Our mathematical model that applies the fixed rate approach under the basic period approach can serve as a reference for other related researches.

Keywords: Economic Lot, Basic Period, Genetic Algorithm, Fixed Rate.

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