Search results for: hazard index.

Authors: S. Al-Sowayan

Abstract:

The impact of selective excitation of circular helical modes of graded-index fibers on its capacity is analyzed using a model for propagation delay variation with launch offset and angle that resulted from misalignment of source and fiber axis. Results show promising technique to improve graded-index fiber capacities.

Keywords: Fiber measurements, Fiber optic communications.

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Authors: Dongjoo Kim, Chang-Sik Son, Won-Seok Kang

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Adequate sleep affects various parts of one’s overall physical and mental life. As one of the methods in determining the appropriate amount of sleep, this research presents a heart rate based sleep quality index. In order to evaluate sleep quality using the heart rate, sleep data from 280 subjects taken over one month are used. Their sleep data are categorized by a three-part heart rate range. After categorizing, some features are extracted, and the statistical significances are verified for these features. The results show that some features of this sleep quality index model have statistical significance. Thus, this heart rate based sleep quality index may be a useful discriminator of sleep.

Keywords: Sleep, sleep quality, heart rate, statistical analysis.

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Authors: E. Bene

Abstract:

Our sowing date experiment took place in the Demonstration Garden of Institution of Plant Sciences, Centre for Agricultural Sciences of University of Debrecen, in 2012-2014. The paper contains data of test year 2014. Our purpose, besides several other examinations, was to observe how sowing date influences the leaf area index and the activity of photosynthesis of maize hybrids, and how those factors affect fruiting. In the experiment we monitored the change of the leaf area index and the photosynthesis of hybrids with four different growing seasons. The results obtained confirm that not only the environmental and agricultural factors in the growing season have effect on the yield, but also other factors like the leaf area index and the photosynthesis are determinative parameters, and all those factors together, modifying the effects of each other, develop average yields.

Keywords: Sowing date, hybrid, leaf area index, photosynthetic capacity.

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Authors: G. Ghodrati Amiri, M. Khorasani, Razavian Ameri, M.Mohamadi Dehcheshmeh, S.Fathi

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Many studies have been conducted for derivation of attenuation relationships worldwide, however few relationships have been developed to use for the seismic region of Iranian plateau and only few of these studies have been conducted for derivation of attenuation relationships for parameters such as uniform duration. Uniform duration is the total time during which the acceleration is larger than a given threshold value (default is 5% of PGA). In this study, the database was same as that used previously by Ghodrati Amiri et al. (2007) with same correction methods for earthquake records in Iran. However in this study, records from earthquakes with MS< 4.0 were excluded from this database, each record has individually filtered afterward, and therefore the dataset has been expanded. These new set of attenuation relationships for Iran are derived based on tectonic conditions with soil classification into rock and soil. Earthquake parameters were chosen to be hypocentral distance and magnitude in order to make it easier to use the relationships for seismic hazard analysis. Tehran is the capital city of Iran wit ha large number of important structures. In this study, a probabilistic approach has been utilized for seismic hazard assessment of this city. The resulting uniform duration against return period diagrams are suggested to be used in any projects in the area.

Keywords: Attenuation Relationships, Iran, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis, Tehran, Uniform Duration

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Authors: Amol Lanke, Hadi Hoseinie, Behzad Ghodrati

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OEE has been used in many industries as measure of performance. However due to limitations of original OEE, it has been modified by various researchers. OEE for mining application is special version of classic equation, carries these limitation over. In this paper it has been aimed to modify the OEE for mining application by introducing the weights to the elements of it and termed as Mine Production index (MPi). As a special application of new index MPishovel has been developed by authors. This can be used for evaluating the shovel effectiveness. Based on analysis, utilization followed by performance and availability were ranked in this order. To check the applicability of this index, a case study was done on four electrical and one hydraulic shovel in a Swedish mine. The results shows that MPishovel can evaluate production effectiveness of shovels and can determine effectiveness values in optimistic view compared to OEE. MPi with calculation not only give the effectiveness but also can predict which elements should be focused for improving the productivity.

Keywords: Mining, Overall equipment efficiency (OEE), Mine Production index, Shovels.

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Authors: V. Zamora, Z. Zhang, A. Meldrum

Abstract:

The compatibility of optical resonators with microfluidic systems may be relevant for chemical and biological applications. Here, a fluorescent-core microcavity (FCM) is investigated as a refractometric sensor for heavy oils. A high-index film of silicon quantum dots (QDs) was formed inside the capillary, supporting cylindrical fluorescence whispering gallery modes (WGMs). A set of standard refractive index oils was injected into a capillary, causing a shift of the WGM resonances toward longer wavelengths. A maximum sensitivity of 240 nm/RIU (refractive index unit) was found for a nominal oil index of 1.74. As well, a sensitivity of 22 nm/RIU was obtained for a lower index of 1.48, more typical of fuel hydrocarbons. Furthermore, the observed spectra and sensitivities were compared to theoretical predictions and reproduced via FDTD simulations, showing in general an excellent agreement. This work demonstrates the potential use of FCMs for oil sensing applications and the more generally for detecting liquid solutions with a high refractive index or high viscosity.

Keywords: Oils, optical resonators, sensing applications, whispering gallery modes.

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Authors: Ghaffar Tari

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of mean size of industry on survival of new firms in East-Azarbaijan province through 1981-2006 using hazard function. So the effect of two variables including mean employment of industry and mean capital of industry are investigated on firm's survival. The Industry & Mine Ministry database has used for data gathering and the data are analyzed using the semi-parametric cox regression model. The results of this study shows that there is a meaningful negative relationship between mean capital of industry and firm's survival, but the mean employment of industry has no meaningful effect on survival of new firms.

Keywords: Firm's Survival, Hazard Function, Mean Capital of Industry, Mean Employment of Industry.

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Authors: E. Vári, K. Máriás

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The research focused on the effects of previous cropping and fertilizers on the LAI, rhythm of the dry matter, leaf disease intensity and amount of yield. Long term field experiments’ results proved that the previous crop fundamentally determines size, rate and dynamics of the dry matter formation in the spring time vegetation period. The LAI index and crop results of winter wheat can be influenced mainly by raising the fertilizer amount. N fertilization has an outstanding role in the changes in leaf area index (LAI), weight of dry matter and yield of winter wheat. According to our results, the interaction effect of leaf area index, weight of dry matter and fertilization resulted in the maximum yield in biculture and triculture.

Keywords: Crop rotation, Leaf Area Index, leaf disease of winter wheat.

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Authors: Saleeza. S.N.R., Norma-Rashid Y, M. Sofian–Azirun

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Larval survey was carried out in 6 localities in the urban areas (Putrajaya) and suburban areas (Kuala Selangor) from January until December 2010. A total of 520 representative households in 6 localities were selected. Breeding habitats were sampled outdoors in the surroundings of housing areas. The study indicated that the most predominant species found in both areas was Aedes albopictus with the gardening utensil as a preferred breeding microhabitat for Putrajaya, in contrast to the artificial containers for Kuala Selangor. From a total of 1083 mosquito larvae species, 984 were Aedes albopictus larvae, 67 positive larvae of Aedes aegypti and 32 of Culex larvae. Aedes Index and Container Index were elevated in Putrajaya with 13% and 11% respectively which is higher than the standard given by the Ministry of Health, Malaysia. This results implicating dengue-sensitive skewed to the urban areas. Breteau Index result also above the standard in both study locations.

Keywords: Aedes albopictus, Aedes aegypti, Aedes Index (AI), Container Index (CI), Breteau Index (BI)

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Authors: Hoda Zolfagharnejad, Behnam Kamkar, Omid Abdi

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Crop coefficient (Kc) is an important factor contributing to estimation of evapotranspiration, and is also used to determine the irrigation schedule. This study investigated and determined the monthly Kc of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) using five vegetation indices (VIs): Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Difference Vegetation Index (DVI), Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), Infrared Percentage Vegetation Index (IPVI), and Ratio Vegetation Index (RVI) of four basins in Golestan province, Iran. 14 Landsat-8 images according to crop growth stage were used to estimate monthly Kc of wheat. VIs were calculated based on infrared and near infrared bands of Landsat 8 images using Geographical Information System (GIS) software. The best VIs were chosen after establishing a regression relationship among these VIs with FAO Kc and Kc that was modified for the study area by the previous research based on R² and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The result showed that local modified SAVI with R²= 0.767 and RMSE= 0.174 was the best index to produce monthly wheat Kc maps.

Keywords: Crop coefficient, remote sensing, vegetation indices, wheat.

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Authors: Ti-An Tsai, Chun-Chih Wang, Hung-Wen Wang, I-Ling Chang, Lien-Wen Chen

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In this study, we demonstrate a high-resolution refractive index sensor based on a Magnetic Photonic Crystal (MPC) composed of a triangular lattice array of air holes embedded in Si matrix. A microcavity is created by changing the radius of an air hole in the middle of the photonic crystal. The cavity filled with gyrotropic materials can serve as a refractive index sensor. The shift of the resonant frequency of the sensor is obtained numerically using finite difference time domain method under different ambient conditions having refractive index from n = 1.0 to n = 1.1. The numerical results show that a tiny change in refractive index of  Δn = 0.0001 is distinguishable. In addition, the spectral response of the MPC sensor is studied while an external magnetic field is present. The results show that the MPC sensor exhibits a dramatic improvement in resolution.

Keywords: Magnetic photonic crystal, refractive index sensor, sensitivity, high-resolution.

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Authors: Hanan A. M. Abd Alla, Lilac A. E. Al-Safadi

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In this paper, a novel multi join algorithm to join multiple relations will be introduced. The novel algorithm is based on a hashed-based join algorithm of two relations to produce a double index. This is done by scanning the two relations once. But instead of moving the records into buckets, a double index will be built. This will eliminate the collision that can happen from a complete hash algorithm. The double index will be divided into join buckets of similar categories from the two relations. The algorithm then joins buckets with similar keys to produce joined buckets. This will lead at the end to a complete join index of the two relations. without actually joining the actual relations. The time complexity required to build the join index of two categories is Om log m where m is the size of each category. Totaling time complexity to O n log m for all buckets. The join index will be used to materialize the joined relation if required. Otherwise, it will be used along with other join indices of other relations to build a lattice to be used in multi-join operations with minimal I/O requirements. The lattice of the join indices can be fitted into the main memory to reduce time complexity of the multi join algorithm.

Keywords: Multi join, Relation, Lattice, Join indices.

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Authors: Siti Khairunniza-Bejo, Yusnida Yusoff, Nik Salwani Nik Yusoff, Idris Abu Seman, Mohamad Izzuddin Anuar

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Most of the oil palm plantations have been threatened by Basal Stem Rot (BSR) disease which causes serious economic impact. This study was conducted to identify the healthy and BSRinfected oil palm tree using thirteen color indices. Multispectral and thermal camera was used to capture 216 images of the leaves taken from frond number 1, 9 and 17. Indices of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), red (R), green (G), blue (B), near infrared (NIR), green – blue (GB), green/blue (G/B), green – red (GR), green/red (G/R), hue (H), saturation (S), intensity (I) and thermal index (T) were used. From this study, it can be concluded that G index taken from frond number 9 is the best index to differentiate between the healthy and BSR-infected oil palm trees. It not only gave high value of correlation coefficient (R=-0.962), but also high value of separation between healthy and BSR-infected oil palm tree. Furthermore, power and S model developed using G index gave the highest R2 value which is 0.985.

Keywords: Oil palm, image processing, disease, leaves.

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Authors: Satjaporn Tungsong, Gun Srijuntongsiri

Abstract:

This research seeks to investigate the frequency and profitability of index arbitrage opportunities involving the SET50 futures, SET50 component stocks, and the ThaiDEX SET50 ETF (ticker symbol: TDEX). In particular, the frequency and profit of arbitrage are measured in the following three arbitrage tests: (1) SET50 futures vs. ThaiDEX SET50 ETF, (2) SET50 futures vs. SET50 component stocks, and (3) ThaiDEX SET50 ETF vs. SET50 component stocks are investigated. For tests (2) and (3), the problems involve conic optimization and quadratic programming as subproblems. This research is first to apply conic optimization and quadratic programming techniques in the context of index arbitrage and is first to investigate such index arbitrage in the Thai equity and derivatives markets. Thus, the contribution of this study is twofold. First, its results would help understand the contribution of the derivatives securities to the efficiency of the Thai markets. Second, the methodology employed in this study can be applied to other geographical markets, with minor adjustments.

Keywords: Conic optimization, Equity index arbitrage, Executionlags, Quadratic programming, SET50 index futures, ThaiDEX SET50ETF, Transaction costs

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Authors: Manish Pal, Rumi Sutradhar

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Pavement surface unevenness plays a pivotal role on roughness index of road which affects on riding comfort ability. Comfort ability refers to the degree of protection offered to vehicle occupants from uneven elements in the road surface. So, it is preferable to have a lower roughness index value for a better riding quality of road users. Roughness is generally defined as an expression of irregularities in the pavement surface which can be measured using different equipments like MERLIN, Bump integrator, Profilometer etc. Among them Bump Integrator is quite simple and less time consuming in case of long road sections. A case study is conducted on low volume roads in West District in Tripura to determine roughness index (RI) using Bump Integrator at the standard speed of 32 km/h. But it becomes too tough to maintain the requisite standard speed throughout the road section. The speed of Bump Integrator (BI) has to lower or higher in some distinctive situations. So, it becomes necessary to convert these roughness index values of other speeds to the standard speed of 32 km/h. This paper highlights on that roughness index conversional model. Using SPSS (Statistical Package of Social Sciences) software a generalized equation is derived among the RI value at standard speed of 32 km/h and RI value at other speed conditions.

Keywords: Bump Integrator, Pavement Distresses, Roughness Index, SPSS.

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Authors: Nuzlinda Abdul Rahman, Syerrina Zakaria

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Deprivation indices are widely used in public health study. These indices are also referred as the index of inequalities or disadvantage. Even though, there are many indices that have been built before, it is believed to be less appropriate to use the existing indices to be applied in other countries or areas which had different socio-economic conditions and different geographical characteristics. The objective of this study is to construct the index based on the geographical and socio-economic factors in Peninsular Malaysia which is defined as the weighted household-based deprivation index. This study has employed the variables based on household items, household facilities, school attendance and education level obtained from Malaysia 2000 census report. The factor analysis is used to extract the latent variables from indicators, or reducing the observable variable into smaller amount of components or factor. Based on the factor analysis, two extracted factors were selected, known as Basic Household Amenities and Middle-Class Household Item factor. It is observed that the district with a lower index values are located in the less developed states like Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah. Meanwhile, the areas with high index values are located in developed states such as Pulau Pinang, W.P. Kuala Lumpur and Selangor.

Keywords: Factor Analysis, Basic Household Amenities, Middle-Class Household Item, Socio-economic Index

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Authors: V. C. Shruti, P. F. Rodríguez-Espinosa, D. C. Escobedo-Urías, Estefanía Martinez Tavera, M. P. Jonathan

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Atoyac River, a major south-central river flowing through the states of Puebla and Tlaxcala in Mexico is significantly impacted by the natural volcanic inputs in addition with wastewater discharges from urban, agriculture and industrial zones. In the present study, core samples were collected from R. Atoyac and analyzed for sediment granularity, major (Al, Fe, Ca, Mg, K, P and S) and trace elemental concentrations (Ba, Cr, Cd, Mn, Pb, Sr, V, Zn, Zr). The textural studies reveal that the sediments are mostly sand sized particles exceeding 99% and with very few to no presence of mud fractions. It is observed that most of the metals like (avg: all values in μg g^-1) Ca (35,528), Mg (10,789), K (7453), S (1394), Ba (203), Cr (30), Cd (4), Pb (11), Sr (435), Zn (76) and Zr (88) are enriched throughout the sediments mainly sourced from volcanic inputs, source rock composition of Atoyac River basin and industrial influences from the Puebla city region. Contamination indices, such as anthropogenic factor (AF), enrichment factor (EF) and geoaccumulation index (I_geo), were used to investigate the level of contamination and toxicity as well as quantitatively assess the influences of human activities on metal concentrations. The AF values (>1) for Ba, Ca, Mg, Na, K, P and S suggested volcanic inputs from the study region, where as Cd and Zn are attributed to the impacts of industrial inputs in this zone. The EF and I_geo values revealed an extreme enrichment of S and Cd. The ecological risks were evaluated using potential ecological risk index (RI) and the results indicate that the metals Cd and V pose a major hazard for the biological community.

Keywords: Atoyac River, contamination indices, metal concentrations, Mexico, textural studies.

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Authors: G. Cannistraro, L. Ponterio

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In this paper is reported an analysis about the outdoor air pollution of the urban centre of the city of Messina. The variations of the most critical pollutants concentrations (PM10, O3, CO, C6H6) and their trends respect of climatic parameters and vehicular traffic have been studied. Linear regressions have been effectuated for representing the relations among the pollutants; the differences between pollutants concentrations on weekend/weekday were also analyzed. In order to evaluate air pollution and its effects on human health, a method for calculating a pollution index was implemented and applied in the urban centre of the city. This index is based on the weighted mean of the most detrimental air pollutants concentrations respect of their limit values for protection of human health. The analyzed data of the polluting substances were collected by the Assessorship of the Environment of the Regional Province of Messina in the year 2004. A statistical analysis of the air quality index trends is also reported.

Keywords: Environmental pollution, Pollutants levels, Linearregression, Air Quality Index, Statistical analysis.

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Authors: Le Xuan Cau

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Flash flood is occurred in short time rainfall interval: from 1 hour to 12 hours in small and medium basins. Flash floods typically have two characteristics: large water flow and big flow velocity. Flash flood is occurred at hill valley site (strip of lowland of terrain) in a catchment with large enough distribution area, steep basin slope, and heavy rainfall. The risk of flash floods is determined through Gridded Basin Flash Flood Potential Index (GBFFPI). Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI) is determined through terrain slope flash flood index, soil erosion flash flood index, land cover flash floods index, land use flash flood index, rainfall flash flood index. Determining GBFFPI, each cell in a map can be considered as outlet of a water accumulation basin. GBFFPI of the cell is determined as basin average value of FFPI of the corresponding water accumulation basin. Based on GIS, a tool is developed to compute GBFFPI using ArcObjects SDK for .NET. The maps of GBFFPI are built in two types: GBFFPI including rainfall flash flood index (real time flash flood warning) or GBFFPI excluding rainfall flash flood index. GBFFPI Tool can be used to determine a high flash flood potential site in a large region as quick as possible. The GBFFPI is improved from conventional FFPI. The advantage of GBFFPI is that GBFFPI is taking into account the basin response (interaction of cells) and determines more true flash flood site (strip of lowland of terrain) while conventional FFPI is taking into account single cell and does not consider the interaction between cells. The GBFFPI Map of QuangNam, QuangNgai, DaNang, Hue is built and exported to Google Earth. The obtained map proves scientific basis of GBFFPI.

Keywords: ArcObjects SDK for .NET, Basin average value of FFPI, Gridded basin flash flood potential index, GBFFPI map.

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Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

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In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: Fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity.

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Authors: Priyanka Sen, Kaibalya Prasad Panda, Soumyakanta Samantaray, Sreyasee Rout, Bishnupriya Biswal

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Deregulation in the power system industry and the invention of new technologies for producing electrical energy has led to innovations in power system planning. Distributed generation (DG) is one of the most attractive technologies that bring different kinds of advantages to a lot of entities, engaged in power systems. In this paper, a model for considering DGs in the power system planning problem is presented. Dynamic power system planning for reduction of maintenance and operational cost is presented in this paper. In addition to that, a modified particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to find the optimal topology solution. Voltage Profile Improvement Index (VPII) and Line Loss Reduction Index (LLRI) are taken as benefit index of employing DG. The effectiveness of this method is demonstrated through examination of IEEE 30 bus test system.

Keywords: Distributed generation, line loss reduction index, particle swarm optimization, power system, voltage profile improvement index.

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Authors: Guangzhuang Yu, Chun-Chu Liu

Abstract:

With the advent of the Internet era in recent years, social music education has gradually shifted from the original entity education mode to the mode of entity plus network teaching. No matter for school music education, professional music education or social music education, the teaching quality is the most important evaluation index. Regarding the research on teaching quality evaluation, scholars at home and abroad have contributed a lot of research results on the basis of multiple methods and evaluation subjects. However, to our best knowledge the complete evaluation model for the virtual teaching interaction mode of the emerging network music education Application (APP) has not been established. This research firstly found out the basic dimensions that accord with the teaching quality required by the three parties, constructing the quality evaluation index system; and then, on the basis of expounding the connotation of each index, it determined the weight of each index by using method of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, providing ideas and methods for scientific, objective and comprehensive evaluation of the teaching quality of network education APP.

Keywords: Network music education APP, teaching quality evaluation, index, connotation.

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Authors: Altayeb Qasem, Tarek Zayed, Zhi Chen

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Statistics Canada stated that the wastewater treatment facilities in most provinces are aging and passes 63% of their useful life in 2007 the highest ratio among public infrastructure assets. Currently, there is no standard condition rating system for wastewater treatment plants that give a specific rating index that describe the physical integrity of different infrastructure elements in the treatment plant and its environmental performance. The main objective of this study is to develop a condition-rating index for wastewater treatment plants mainly activated sludge systems. The proposed WWTP CRI, is based on dividing the treatment plant into its three treatment phases; primary phase, secondary phase and the tertiary phase. The condition-rating index will reflect the infrastructures state for each phase, mainly tanks, pipes, blowers and pumps.

Keywords: Condition rating index, Wastewater treatment plants, AHP- MUAT.

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Authors: Muhammad Tufail, Jawad Hussain, Hammad Hussain, Imran Hafeez, Naveed Ahmad

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Road safety performance index is a composite index which combines various indicators of road safety into single number. Development of a road safety performance index using appropriate safety performance indicators is essential to enhance road safety. However, a road safety performance index in developing countries has not been given as much priority as needed. The primary objective of this research is to develop a general Road Safety Performance Index (RSPI) for developing countries based on the facility as well as behavior of road user. The secondary objectives include finding the critical inputs in the RSPI and finding the better method of making the index. In this study, the RSPI is developed by selecting four main safety performance indicators i.e., protective system (seat belt, helmet etc.), road (road width, signalized intersections, number of lanes, speed limit), number of pedestrians, and number of vehicles. Data on these four safety performance indicators were collected using observation survey on a 20 km road section of the National Highway N-125 road Taxila, Pakistan. For the development of this composite index, two methods are used: a) Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and b) Equal Weighting (EW) method. PCA is used for extraction, weighting, and linear aggregation of indicators to obtain a single value. An individual index score was calculated for each road section by multiplication of weights and standardized values of each safety performance indicator. However, Simple Average technique was used for weighting and linear aggregation of indicators to develop a RSPI. The road sections are ranked according to RSPI scores using both methods. The two weighting methods are compared, and the PCA method is found to be much more reliable than the Simple Average Technique.

Keywords: Aggregation, index score, indicators, principal component analysis, weighting.

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Authors: Bishnupriya Sahoo, Prasad K. Bhaskaran

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Tropical cyclone is one among the worst natural hazards that results in a trail of destruction causing enormous damage to life, property, and coastal infrastructures. In a global perspective, the Indian Ocean is considered as one of the cyclone prone basins in the world. Specifically, the frequency of cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal is higher compared to the Arabian Sea. Out of the four maritime states in the East coast of India, Odisha is highly susceptible to tropical cyclone landfall. Historical records clearly decipher the fact that the frequency of cyclones have reduced in this basin. However, in the recent decades, the intensity and size of tropical cyclones have increased. This is a matter of concern as the risk and vulnerability level of Odisha coast exposed to high wind speed and gusts during cyclone landfall have increased. In this context, there is a need to assess and evaluate the severity of coastal risk, area of exposure under risk, and associated vulnerability with a higher dimension in a multi-risk perspective. Changing climate can result in the emergence of a new hazard and vulnerability over a region with differential spatial and socio-economic impact. Hence there is a need to have coastal vulnerability projections in a changing climate scenario. With this motivation, the present study attempts to estimate the destructiveness of tropical cyclones based on Power Dissipation Index (PDI) for those cyclones that made landfall along Odisha coast that exhibits an increasing trend based on historical data. The study also covers the futuristic scenarios of integral coastal vulnerability based on the trends in PDI for the Odisha coast. This study considers 11 essential and important parameters; the cyclone intensity, storm surge, onshore inundation, mean tidal range, continental shelf slope, topo-graphic elevation onshore, rate of shoreline change, maximum wave height, relative sea level rise, rainfall distribution, and coastal geomorphology. The study signifies that over a decadal scale, the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) depends largely on the incremental change in variables such as cyclone intensity, storm surge, and associated inundation. In addition, the study also performs a critical analysis on the modulation of PDI on storm surge and inundation characteristics for the entire coastal belt of Odisha State. Interestingly, the study brings to light that a linear correlation exists between the storm-tide with PDI. The trend analysis of PDI and its projection for coastal Odisha have direct practical applications in effective coastal zone management and vulnerability assessment.

Keywords: Bay of Bengal, coastal vulnerability index, power dissipation index, tropical cyclone.

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Authors: D. De-León-Escobedo, D. J. Delgado-Hernández, S. Pérez

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A probabilistic formulation to assess the slopes safety under the hazard of strong storms is presented and illustrated through a slope in Mexico. The formulation is based on the classical safety factor (SF) used in practice to appraise the slope stability, but it is introduced the treatment of uncertainties, and the slope failure probability is calculated as the probability that SF<1. As the main hazard is the rainfall on the area, statistics of rainfall intensity and duration are considered and modeled with an exponential distribution. The expected life-cycle cost is assessed by considering a monetary value on the slope failure consequences. Alternative mitigation measures are simulated, and the formulation is used to get the measures driving to the optimal one (minimum life-cycle costs). For the example, the optimal mitigation measure is the reduction on the slope inclination angle.

Keywords: Expected life-cycle cost, failure probability, slopes failure, storms.

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Authors: A. Bobirca, A. Draghici

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The objective of this paper is to construct a creativity composite index designed to capture the growing role of creativity in driving economic and social development for the 27 European Union countries. The paper proposes a new approach for the measurement of EU-27 creative potential and for determining its capacity to attract and develop creative human capital. We apply a modified version of the 3T model developed by Richard Florida and Irene Tinagli for constructing a Euro-Creativity Index. The resulting indexes establish a quantitative base for policy makers, supporting their efforts to determine the contribution of creativity to economic development.

Keywords: European Creativity Index, talent, technology, tolerance

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Authors: Eduardo C. Guardia, Jose W. M. Lima, Afonso H. M. Santos

Abstract:

This paper presents a nonparametric method to obtain the hazard rate “Bathtub curve” for power system components. The model is a mixture of the three known phases of a component life, the decreasing failure rate (DFR), the constant failure rate (CFR) and the increasing failure rate (IFR) represented by three parametric Weibull models. The parameters are obtained from a simultaneous fitting process of the model to the Kernel nonparametric hazard rate curve. From the Weibull parameters and failure rate curves the useful lifetime and the characteristic lifetime were defined. To demonstrate the model the historic time-to-failure of distribution transformers were used as an example. The resulted “Bathtub curve” shows the failure rate for the equipment lifetime which can be applied in economic and replacement decision models.

Keywords: Bathtub curve, failure analysis, lifetime estimation, parameter estimation, Weibull distribution.

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Authors: T. Basitah

Abstract:

This study was to explore and utilize the fresh rind of mangosteen Index Colour 5 as an upcoming raw material for the production of natural dyes. Rind from the fresh mangosteen Index Colour 5 was utilized to extract the dyes. The established extracts were experimented on silk fabrics via three types of mordanting and dyeing procedures; pre-mordanting, simultaneous mordanting and post-mordanting. As a result, the applications of the freeze-drying methodology and mechanizable equipment have helped to produce excellent range of natural colours. Silk fabric treated simultaneously with mordanting and dyeing with extract dye Index Colour 5 produced a brilliant shade of the red colour and the colour from this index is also discovered sensitive to light and washing during the fastness tests. The preliminary evaluation and instrumentation analysis allowed us to examine whether the application of different mordanting and dyeing procedures with the same extract samples and concentrations affected the colours and shades of the fabric samples.

Keywords: Natural dye, Freeze-drying, Garcinia mangostana Linn, Mordanting.

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

Abstract:

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a disease associated with obesity. It is a complicated clinical problem possibly affecting body composition as well as macrominerals. These parameters gain further attention particularly in pediatric population. The aim of this study is to investigate the amount of discrete body composition fractions in groups that differ in the severity of obesity. Also, the possible associations with calcium (Ca), phosphorus (P), magnesium (Mg) will be examined. The study population was divided into four groups. 28, 29, 34 and 34 children were involved in Group 1 (healthy), Group 2 (obese), Group 3 (morbid obese) and Group 4 (MetS), respectively. Institutional Ethical Committee approved the study protocol. Informed consent forms were obtained from the parents of the participants. The classification of obese groups was performed based upon the recommendations of World Health Organization. MetS components were defined. Serum Ca, P, Mg concentrations were measured. Within the scope of body composition, fat mass, fat-free mass, protein mass, mineral mass were determined by body composition monitor using bioelectrical impedance analysis technology. Weight, height, waist circumference, hip circumference, head circumference and neck circumference values were recorded. Body mass index, diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index, fat mass index and fat-free mass index values were calculated. Data were statistically evaluated and interpreted. There was no statistically significant difference among the groups in terms of Ca and P concentrations. Magnesium concentrations differed between Group 1 and Group 4. Strong negative correlations were detected between P as well as Mg and fat mass index as well as diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index in Group 4, which comprised morbid obese children with MetS. This study emphasized unique associations of P and Mg minerals with diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index and fat mass index during the evaluation of morbid obese children with MetS. It was also concluded that diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index and fat mass index were more proper indices in comparison with body mass index and fat-free mass index for the purpose of defining body composition in children.

Keywords: Children, fat mass, fat-free mass, macrominerals, obesity.

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