Search results for: emotional and behaviour difficulties.

Authors: M. R. Bhuiyan, S. M. M. Hossain, M. Z. Islam

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Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is the fastest growing serious developmental disorder characterized by social deficits, communicative difficulties, and repetitive behaviors. ASD is an emerging public health issue globally which is associated with huge financial burden to the family, community and the nation. The aim of this study was to assess the financial burden of family for the children with Autism spectrum Disorder. This cross-sectional study was carried out from July 2015 to June 2016 among 154 children with ASD to assess the financial burden of family. Data were collected by face-to-face interview with semi-structured questionnaire following systematic random sampling technique. Majority (73.4%) children were male and mean (±SD) age was 6.66 ± 2.97 years. Most (88.8%) of the children were from urban areas with average monthly family income Tk. 41785.71±23936.45. Average monthly direct cost of the children was Tk.17656.49 ± 9984.35, while indirect cost was Tk. 13462.90 ± 9713.54 and total treatment cost was Tk. 23076.62 ± 15341.09. Special education cost (Tk. 4871.00), cost of therapy (Tk. 4124.07) and travel cost (Tk. 3988.31) were the major types of direct cost, while loss of income (Tk.14570.18) was the chief indirect cost incurred by the families. The study found that majority (59.8%) of the children attended special schools were incurred Tk.20001-78700 as total treatment cost, which were statistically significant (p<0.001). Again, families with higher monthly family income incurred higher treatment cost (r=0.526, p<0.05). Difference between mean direct and indirect cost was found significant (t=4.190, df=61, p<0.001). According to the analysis of variance, mean difference of father’s educational status among direct cost (F=10.337, p<0.001) and total treatment cost (F=7.841, p<0.001), which were statistically significant. The study revealed that maximum children with ASD were under five years, three-fourth were male. According to monthly family income, maximum family were in middle class. The study recommends cost effective interventions and financial safety-net measures to reduce the financial burden of families for the children with ASD.

Keywords: Autism spectrum disorder, financial burden, direct cost, indirect cost, Special education.

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Authors: Johan Wall, Johan Fredin, Anders Jönsson, Göran Broman

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Designing modern machine tools is a complex task. A simulation tool to aid the design work, a virtual machine, has therefore been developed in earlier work. The virtual machine considers the interaction between the mechanics of the machine (including structural flexibility) and the control system. This paper exemplifies the usefulness of the virtual machine as a tool for product development. An optimisation study is conducted aiming at improving the existing design of a machine tool regarding weight and manufacturing accuracy at maintained manufacturing speed. The problem can be categorised as constrained multidisciplinary multiobjective multivariable optimisation. Parameters of the control and geometric quantities of the machine are used as design variables. This results in a mix of continuous and discrete variables and an optimisation approach using a genetic algorithm is therefore deployed. The accuracy objective is evaluated according to international standards. The complete systems model shows nondeterministic behaviour. A strategy to handle this based on statistical analysis is suggested. The weight of the main moving parts is reduced by more than 30 per cent and the manufacturing accuracy is improvement by more than 60 per cent compared to the original design, with no reduction in manufacturing speed. It is also shown that interaction effects exist between the mechanics and the control, i.e. this improvement would most likely not been possible with a conventional sequential design approach within the same time, cost and general resource frame. This indicates the potential of the virtual machine concept for contributing to improved efficiency of both complex products and the development process for such products. Companies incorporating such advanced simulation tools in their product development could thus improve its own competitiveness as well as contribute to improved resource efficiency of society at large.

Keywords: Machine tools, Mechatronics, Non-deterministic, Optimisation, Product development, Virtual machine

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Authors: M. Inmaculada Alvarez-Fernández, Celestino González-Nicieza, M. Belén Prendes-Gero, Fernando López-Gayarre

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Among many factors affecting the stability of mining excavations, rock-bursts and tremors play a special role. These dynamic loads occur practically always and have different sources of generation. The most important of them is the commonly used mining technique, which disintegrates a certain area of the rock mass not only in the area of the planned mining, but also creates waves that significantly exceed this area affecting the structural elements. In this work it is analysed the consequences of dynamic loads over the structural elements in an underground room and pillar mine to avoid roof instabilities. With this end, dynamic loads were evaluated through in situ and laboratory tests and simulated with numerical modelling. Initially, the geotechnical characterization of all materials was carried out by mean of large-scale tests. Then, drill holes were done on the roof of the mine and were monitored to determine possible discontinuities in it. Three seismic stations and a triaxial accelerometer were employed to measure the vibrations from blasting tests, establish the dynamic behaviour of roof and pillars and develop the transmission laws. At last, computer simulations by FLAC3D software were done to check the effect of vibrations on the stability of the roofs. The study shows that in-situ tests have a greater reliability than laboratory samples because of eliminating the effect of heterogeneities, that the pillars work decreasing the amplitude of the vibration around them, and that the tensile strength of a beam and depending on its span is overcome with waves in phase and delayed. The obtained transmission law allows designing a blasting which guarantees safety and prevents the risk of future failures.

Keywords: Dynamic modelling, long term instability risks, room and pillar, seismic collapse.

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Authors: Jelena R. Pejović, Nina N. Serdar

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This paper presents an analysis of the “Performance-Based” seismic design method, in order to overcome the perceived disadvantages and limitations of the existing seismic design approach based on force, in engineering practice. Bearing in mind, the specificity of the earthquake as a load and the fact that the seismic resistance of the structures solely depends on its behaviour in the nonlinear field, traditional seismic design approach based on force and linear analysis is not adequate. “Performance-Based” seismic design method is based on nonlinear analysis and can be used in everyday engineering practice. This paper presents the application of this method to eight-story high reinforced concrete building with combined structural system (reinforced concrete frame structural system in one direction and reinforced concrete ductile wall system in other direction). The nonlinear time-history analysis is performed on the spatial model of the structure using program Perform 3D, where the structure is exposed to forty real earthquake records. For considered building, large number of results were obtained. It was concluded that using this method we could, with a high degree of reliability, evaluate structural behavior under earthquake. It is obtained significant differences in the response of structures to various earthquake records. Also analysis showed that frame structural system had not performed well at the effect of earthquake records on soil like sand and gravel, while a ductile wall system had a satisfactory behavior on different types of soils.

Keywords: Ductile wall, frame system, nonlinear time-history analysis, performance-based methodology, RC building.

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Authors: B. O. Diyaolu

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The opportunity provided by advances in technology as regard to sports betting is so numerous. Nigerian youth are not left out especially with the use of phones and visit to sports betting outlets. Today, it is more difficult to differentiate a true fan as there are quite a number of them that became fans as a result of betting on live games. This study investigated the influence of online sports events on betting among Nigerian youth. A descriptive survey research design was used and the population consists of all Nigerian youth that engages in betting and lives within the southwest zone of Nigeria. A simple random sampling technique was used to pick three states from the southwest zone of Nigeria. 2500 respondents comprising of males and females were sampled from the three states. A structured questionnaire on Online Sports Event Contribution to Sports Betting (OSECSB) was used. The instrument consists of three sections. Section A seeks information on the demographic data of the respondents. Section B seeks information on online sports events while section C was used to extract information on sports betting. The modified instrument which consists of 14 items has a reliability coefficient of 0.74. The hypothesis was tested at 0.05 significance level. The completed questionnaire was collated, coded, and analyzed using descriptive statistics of frequency counts, percentage and pie chart, and inferential statistics of multiple regressions. The findings of this study revealed that online sports betting is a significant predictor of an increase in sports betting among Nigerian youth. The media and television, as well as globalization and the internet, coupled with social media and various online platforms, have all contributed to the immense increase in sports betting. The increase in the advertisement of the betting platform during live matches, especially football, is becoming more alarming. In most organized international events, the media attention, as well as sponsorship rights, are now been given to one or two betting platforms. There is a need for all stakeholders to put in place school-based intervention programs to reorientate our youth about the consequences of addiction to betting. Such programs must include meta-analyses and emotional control towards sports betting.

Keywords: Betting platform, Nigerian fans, Nigerian youth, sports betting.

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Authors: L. Bernabeo, T. Loftus

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Many children often experience phases of picky eating, food aversions and/or avoidance. For families with children who have special needs, these experiences are often exacerbated, which can lead to feelings that negatively impact a caregiver’s relationship with their child. Within the scope of speech language pathology practice, knowledge of both emotional and feeding development is key. This paper will explore the significance of “messy play” within typical feeding development, and the challenges that may arise if a child does not have the opportunity to engage in this type of exploratory play. This paper will consider several contributing factors that can result in a “picky eater.” Further, research has shown that individuals with special needs, including autism, possess a neurological makeup that differs from that of a typical individual. Because autism is a disorder of relating and communicating due to differences in the limbic system, an individual with special needs may respond to a typical feeding experience as if it is a traumatic event. As a result, broadening one’s dietary repertoire may seem to be an insurmountable challenge. This paper suggests that introducing new foods through exploratory play can help broaden and strengthen diets, as well as improve the feeding experience, of individuals with autism. The DIRFloortimeⓇ methodology stresses the importance of following a child's lead. Within this developmental model, there is a special focus on a person’s individual differences, including the unique way they process the world around them, as well as the significance of therapy occurring within the context of a strong and motivating relationship. Using this child-centered approach, we can support our children in expanding their diets, while simultaneously building upon their cognitive and creative development through playful and respectful interactions that include exposure to foods that differ in color, texture, and smell. Further, this paper explores the importance of exploration, self-feeding and messy play on brain development, both in the context of typically developing individuals and those with disordered development.

Keywords: Autism, development, exploration, feeding, play.

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Authors: M. Cristea, F. Paran, P. Delhomme

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Eco-driving allows the driver to optimize his/her behaviour in order to achieve several types of benefits: reducing pollution emissions, increasing road safety, and fuel saving. One of the main rules for adopting eco-driving is to anticipate the traffic events by avoiding strong acceleration or braking and maintaining a steady speed when possible. Therefore, drivers have to comply with speed limits and time headway. The present study explored the role of three types of motivation and social norms in predicting French drivers- intentions to comply with speed limits and time headway as eco-driving practices as well as examine the variations according to gender and age. 1234 drivers with ages between 18 and 75 years old filled in a questionnaire which was presented as part of an online survey aiming to better understand the drivers- road habits. It included items assessing: a) behavioural intentions to comply with speed limits and time headway according to three types of motivation: reducing pollution emissions, increasing road safety, and fuel saving, b) subjective and descriptive social norms regarding the intention to comply with speed limits and time headway, and c) sociodemographical variables. Drivers expressed their intention to frequently comply with speed limits and time headway in the following 6 months; however, they showed more intention to comply with speed limits as compared to time headway regardless of the type of motivation. The subjective injunctive norms were significantly more important in predicting drivers- intentions to comply with speed limits and time headway as compared to the descriptive norms. In addition, the most frequently reported type of motivation for complying with speed limits and time headway was increasing road safety followed by fuel saving and reducing pollution emissions, hence underlining a low motivation to practice eco-driving. Practical implications of the results are discussed.

Keywords: Eco-driving, social norms, speed limits, time headway.

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Authors: Edison E. Haro, Akindele G. Odeshi, Jerzy A. Szpunar

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Hybrid bio-composites are developed for use in protective armor through positive hybridization offered by reinforcement of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) with Kevlar short fibers and palm wood micro-fillers. The manufacturing process involved a combination of extrusion and compression molding techniques. The mechanical behavior of Kevlar fiber reinforced HDPE with and without palm wood filler additions are compared. The effect of the weight fraction of the added palm wood micro-fillers is also determined. The Young modulus was found to increase as the weight fraction of organic micro-particles increased. However, the flexural strength decreased with increasing weight fraction of added micro-fillers. The interfacial interactions between the components were investigated using scanning electron microscopy. The influence of the size, random alignment and distribution of the natural micro-particles was evaluated. Ballistic impact and dynamic shock loading tests were performed to determine the optimum proportion of Kevlar short fibers and organic micro-fillers needed to improve impact strength of the HDPE. These results indicate a positive hybridization by deposition of organic micro-fillers on the surface of short Kevlar fibers used in reinforcing the thermoplastic matrix leading to enhancement of the mechanical strength and dynamic impact behavior of these materials. Therefore, these hybrid bio-composites can be promising materials for different applications against high velocity impacts.

Keywords: Hybrid bio-composites, organic nano-fillers, dynamic shocking loading, ballistic impacts, energy absorption.

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Authors: Rekha Kandwal, Kamal K.Bharadwaj

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Knowledge is indispensable but voluminous knowledge becomes a bottleneck for efficient processing. A great challenge for data mining activity is the generation of large number of potential rules as a result of mining process. In fact sometimes result size is comparable to the original data. Traditional data mining pruning activities such as support do not sufficiently reduce the huge rule space. Moreover, many practical applications are characterized by continual change of data and knowledge, thereby making knowledge voluminous with each change. The most predominant representation of the discovered knowledge is the standard Production Rules (PRs) in the form If P Then D. Michalski & Winston proposed Censored Production Rules (CPRs), as an extension of production rules, that exhibit variable precision and supports an efficient mechanism for handling exceptions. A CPR is an augmented production rule of the form: If P Then D Unless C, where C (Censor) is an exception to the rule. Such rules are employed in situations in which the conditional statement 'If P Then D' holds frequently and the assertion C holds rarely. By using a rule of this type we are free to ignore the exception conditions, when the resources needed to establish its presence, are tight or there is simply no information available as to whether it holds or not. Thus the 'If P Then D' part of the CPR expresses important information while the Unless C part acts only as a switch changes the polarity of D to ~D. In this paper a scheme based on Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) interpretation of a CPR is suggested for discovering CPRs from the discovered flat PRs. The discovery of CPRs from flat rules would result in considerable reduction of the already discovered rules. The proposed scheme incrementally incorporates new knowledge and also reduces the size of knowledge base considerably with each episode. Examples are given to demonstrate the behaviour of the proposed scheme. The suggested cumulative learning scheme would be useful in mining data streams.

Keywords: Censored production rules, cumulative learning, data mining, machine learning.

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Authors: Oluwaseun K. Oyebode, Josiah A. Adeyemo

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Hydrological modelling plays a crucial role in the planning and management of water resources, most especially in water stressed regions where the need to effectively manage the available water resources is of critical importance. However, due to the complex, nonlinear and dynamic behaviour of hydro-climatic interactions, achieving reliable modelling of water resource systems and accurate projection of hydrological parameters are extremely challenging. Although a significant number of modelling techniques (process-based and data-driven) have been developed and adopted in that regard, the field of hydrological modelling is still considered as one that has sluggishly progressed over the past decades. This is majorly as a result of the identification of some degree of uncertainty in the methodologies and results of techniques adopted. In recent times, evolutionary computation (EC) techniques have been developed and introduced in response to the search for efficient and reliable means of providing accurate solutions to hydrological related problems. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the underlying principles, methodological needs and applications of a promising evolutionary computation modelling technique – genetic programming (GP). It examines the specific characteristics of the technique which makes it suitable to solving hydrological modelling problems. It discusses the opportunities inherent in the application of GP in water related-studies such as rainfall estimation, rainfall-runoff modelling, streamflow forecasting, sediment transport modelling, water quality modelling and groundwater modelling among others. Furthermore, the means by which such opportunities could be harnessed in the near future are discussed. In all, a case for total embracement of GP and its variants in hydrological modelling studies is made so as to put in place strategies that would translate into achieving meaningful progress as it relates to modelling of water resource systems, and also positively influence decision-making by relevant stakeholders.

Keywords: Computational modelling, evolutionary algorithms, genetic programming, hydrological modelling.

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Authors: Safak Isik, Ozalp Vayvay

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Strategic partnerships with suppliers play a vital role for the long-term value-based supply chain. This strategic collaboration keeps still being one of the top priority of many business organizations in order to create more additional value; benefiting mainly from supplier’s specialization, capacity and innovative power, securing supply and better managing costs and quality. However, many organizations encounter difficulties in initiating, developing and managing those partnerships and many attempts result in failures. One of the reasons for such failure is the incompatibility of members of this partnership or in other words wrong supplier selection which emphasize the significance of the selection process since it is the beginning stage. An effective selection process of strategic suppliers is critical to the success of the partnership. Although there are several research studies to select the suppliers in literature, only a few of them is related to strategic supplier selection for long-term partnership. The purpose of this study is to propose a conceptual model for the selection of strategic partnership suppliers. A two-stage approach has been used in proposed model incorporating first segmentation and second selection. In the first stage; considering the fact that not all suppliers are strategically equal and instead of a long list of potential suppliers, Kraljic’s purchasing portfolio matrix can be used for segmentation. This supplier segmentation is the process of categorizing suppliers based on a defined set of criteria in order to identify types of suppliers and determine potential suppliers for strategic partnership. In the second stage, from a pool of potential suppliers defined at first phase, a comprehensive evaluation and selection can be performed to finally define strategic suppliers considering various tangible and intangible criteria. Since a long-term relationship with strategic suppliers is anticipated, criteria should consider both current and future status of the supplier. Based on an extensive literature review; strategical, operational and organizational criteria have been determined and elaborated. The result of the selection can also be used to determine suppliers who are not ready for a partnership but to be developed for strategic partnership. Since the model is based on multiple criteria for both stages, it provides a framework for further utilization of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques. The model may also be applied to a wide range of industries and involve managerial features in business organizations.

Keywords: Kraljic’s matrix, purchasing portfolio, strategic supplier selection, supplier collaboration, supplier partnership, supplier segmentation.

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Authors: Juan David Arango, Alejandro Restrepo-Martinez

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The Rolling Element Bearing (REB) vibration diagnosis is worth of special interest by the variety of REB and the wide necessity of those elements in industrial applications. The presence of a localized fault in a REB gives rise to a vibrational response, characterized by the modulation of a carrier signal. Frequency content of carrier signal (Spectral Frequency –f) is mainly related to resonance frequencies of the REB. This carrier signal is modulated by another signal, governed by the periodicity of the fault impact (Cyclic Frequency –α). In this sense, REB fault vibration response gives rise to a second-order cyclostationary signal. Second order cyclostationary signals could be represented in a bi-spectral map, where Spectral Coherence –SCoh are plotted against f and α. The Improved Envelope Spectrum –IES, is a useful approach to execute REB fault diagnosis. IES could be applied by the integration of SCoh over a predefined bandwidth on the f axis. Approaches to select f-bandwidth have been recently exposed by the definition of a metric which intends to evaluate the magnitude of the IES at the fault characteristics frequencies. This metric is represented in a 1/3-binary tree as a function of the frequency bandwidth and centre. Based on this binary tree the optimal frequency band is selected. However, some advantages have been seen if the metric is changed, which in fact tends to dictate different optimal f-bandwidth and so improve the IES representation. This paper evaluates the behaviour of the IES from a different metric optimization. This metric is based on the sample correlation coefficient, detecting high peaks in the selected frequencies while penalizing high peaks in the neighbours of the selected frequencies. Prior results indicate an improvement on the signal-noise ratio (SNR) on around 86% of samples analysed, which belong to IMS database.

Keywords: Sample Correlation IESFOgram, cyclostationary analysis, improved envelope spectrum, IES, rolling element bearing diagnosis, spectral coherence.

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Authors: J. Ritonja, B. Grcar

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For the synchronous generator simulation and analysis and for the power system stabilizer design and synthesis a mathematical model of synchronous generator is needed. The model has to accurately describe dynamics of oscillations, while at the same time has to be transparent enough for an analysis and sufficiently simplified for design of control system. To study the oscillations of the synchronous generator against to the rest of the power system, the model of the synchronous machine connected to an infinite bus through a transmission line having resistance and inductance is needed. In this paper, the linearized reduced order dynamic model of the synchronous generator connected to the infinite bus is presented and analysed in details. This model accurately describes dynamics of the synchronous generator only in a small vicinity of an equilibrium state. With the digression from the selected equilibrium point the accuracy of this model is decreasing considerably. In this paper, the equations’ descriptions and the parameters’ determinations for the linearized reduced order mathematical model of the synchronous generator are explained and summarized and represent the useful origin for works in the areas of synchronous generators’ dynamic behaviour analysis and synchronous generator’s control systems design and synthesis. The main contribution of this paper represents the detailed analysis of the accuracy of the linearized reduced order dynamic model in the entire synchronous generator’s operating range. Borders of the areas where the linearized reduced order mathematical model represents accurate description of the synchronous generator’s dynamics are determined with the systemic numerical analysis. The thorough eigenvalue analysis of the linearized models in the entire operating range is performed. In the paper, the parameters of the linearized reduced order dynamic model of the laboratory salient poles synchronous generator were determined and used for the analysis. The theoretical conclusions were confirmed with the agreement of experimental and simulation results.

Keywords: Eigenvalue analysis, mathematical model, power system stability, synchronous generator.

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Authors: Nasyairi Mat Nasir, Zulhabri Ismail, Faridah Ismail, Sharifah Nur Aina Syed Alwee, Masnizan Che Mat

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The utilisation of Industrial Building System (IBS) in construction industry will lead to a safe site condition since minimum numbers of workers are required to be on-site, timely material delivery, systematic component storage, reduction of construction material and waste. These matters are being promoted in the Construction Industry Master Plan (CIMP 2006-2015). However, the enabling factors of IBS that will foster a safer working environment are indefinite; on that basis a research has been conducted. The purpose of this paper is to discuss and identify the relevant factors towards safety improvement for IBS. A quantitative research by way of questionnaire surveys have been conducted to 314 construction companies. The target group was Grade 5 to Grade 7 contractors registered with Construction Industry Development Board (CIDB) which specialise in IBS. The findings disclosed seven factors linked to the safety improvement of IBS construction site in Malaysia. The factors were historical, economic, psychological, technical, procedural, organisational and the environmental factors. From the findings, a psychological factor ranked as the highest and most crucial factor contributing to safer IBS construction site. The psychological factor included the self-awareness and influences from workmates behaviour. Followed by organisational factors, where project management style will encourage the safety efforts. From the procedural factors, it was also found that training was one of the significant factors to improve safety culture of IBS construction site. Another important finding that formed as a part of the environmental factor was storage of IBS components, in which proper planning of the layout would able to contribute to a safer site condition. To conclude, in order to improve safety of IBS construction site, a welltrained and skilled workers are required for IBS projects, thus proper training is permissible and should be emphasised.

Keywords: Enabling Factors, Industrialised Building System, Safety Improvement.

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Authors: Ameer A. Jebur, William Atherton, Rafid M. Alkhaddar, Edward Loffill

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Superstructures like offshore platforms, tall buildings, transition towers, skyscrapers and bridges are normally designed to resist compression, uplift and lateral forces from wind waves, negative skin friction, ship impact and other applied loads. Better understanding and the precise simulation of the response of batter piles under the action of independent uplift loads is a vital topic and an area of active research in the field of geotechnical engineering. This paper investigates the use of finite element code (FEC) to examine the behaviour of model batter piles penetrated in dense sand, subjected to pull-out pressure by means of numerical modelling. The concept of the Winkler Model (beam on elastic foundation) has been used in which the interaction between the pile embedded depth and adjacent soil in the bearing zone is simulated by nonlinear p-y curves. The analysis was conducted on different pile slenderness ratios (lc⁄d) ranging from 7.5, 15.22 and 30 respectively. In addition, the optimum batter angle for a model steel pile penetrated in dense sand has been chosen to be 20° as this is the best angle for this simulation as demonstrated by other researcher published in literature. In this numerical analysis, the soil response is idealized as elasto-plastic and the model piles are described as elastic materials for the purpose of simulation. The results revealed that the applied loads affect the pullout pile capacity as well as the lateral pile response for dense sand together with varying shear strength parameters linked to the pile critical depth. Furthermore, the pile pull-out capacity increases with increasing the pile aspect ratios.

Keywords: Slenderness ratio, soil-pile interaction, winkler model (beam on elastic foundation), pull-out capacity.

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Authors: Victor Birikorang Danquah

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Ghana's primary energy supply is heavily reliant on petroleum, biomass, and hydropower. Currently, Ghana gets its energy from hydropower (Akosombo and Bui), thermal power plants powered by crude oil, natural gas, and diesel, solar power, and imports from La Cote d'Ivoire. Until the early 2000s, large hydroelectric dams dominated Ghana's electricity generation. Due to the unreliable weather patterns, Ghana increased its reliance on thermal power. Thermal power contributes the highest percentage in terms of electricity generation in Ghana and is predominantly supplied by Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Ghana's electricity industry operates the corporate utility model as its business model. This model is typically 'vertically integrated', with a single corporation selling the majority of power generated by its generation assets to its retail business, which then sells the electricity to retail market consumers. The corporate utility model has a straightforward value proposition that is based on increasing the number of energy units sold. The unit volume business model drives the entire energy value chain to increase throughput, locking system users into unsustainable practices. This report uses the qualitative research approach to explore the electricity industry in Ghana. There is the need for increasing renewable energy such as wind and solar in the electricity generation. The research recommends two critical business models for the penetration of renewable energy in Ghana's power sector. The first model is the peer-to-peer electricity trading model which relies on a software platform to connect consumers and generators in order for them to trade energy directly with one another. The second model is about encouraging local energy generation, incentivizing optimal time-of-use behaviour, and allow any financial gains to be shared among the community members.

Keywords: business model innovation, electricity generation, renewable energy, solar energy, sustainability, wind energy

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Authors: A. Alzeyadi, E. Loffill, R. Alkhaddar

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Continuous upflow filters can combine the nutrient (nitrogen and phosphate) and suspended solid removal in one unit process. The contaminant removal could be achieved chemically or biologically; in both processes the filter removal efficiency depends on the interaction between the packed filter media and the influent. In this paper a residence time distribution (RTD) study was carried out to understand and compare the transfer behaviour of contaminants through a selected filter media packed in a laboratory-scale continuous up flow filter; the selected filter media are limestone and white dolomite. The experimental work was conducted by injecting a tracer (red drain dye tracer –RDD) into the filtration system and then measuring the tracer concentration at the outflow as a function of time; the tracer injection was applied at hydraulic loading rates (HLRs) (3.8 to 15.2 m h-1). The results were analysed according to the cumulative distribution function F(t) to estimate the residence time of the tracer molecules inside the filter media. The mean residence time (MRT) and variance σ2 are two moments of RTD that were calculated to compare the RTD characteristics of limestone with white dolomite. The results showed that the exit-age distribution of the tracer looks better at HLRs (3.8 to 7.6 m h-1) and (3.8 m h-1) for limestone and white dolomite respectively. At these HLRs the cumulative distribution function F(t) revealed that the residence time of the tracer inside the limestone was longer than in the white dolomite; whereas all the tracer took 8 minutes to leave the white dolomite at 3.8 m h-1. On the other hand, the same amount of the tracer took 10 minutes to leave the limestone at the same HLR. In conclusion, the determination of the optimal level of hydraulic loading rate, which achieved the better influent distribution over the filtration system, helps to identify the applicability of the material as filter media. Further work will be applied to examine the efficiency of the limestone and white dolomite for phosphate removal by pumping a phosphate solution into the filter at HLRs (3.8 to 7.6 m h-1).

Keywords: Filter media, hydraulic loading rate, residence time distribution, tracer.

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Authors: Lubna Eljabu, Mohammad Etemad, Stan Matwin

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The automatic extraction of shipping routes is advantageous for intelligent traffic management systems to identify events and support decision-making in maritime surveillance. At present, there is a high demand for the extraction of maritime traffic networks that resemble the real traffic of vessels accurately, which is valuable for further analytical processing tasks for vessels trajectories (e.g., naval routing and voyage planning, anomaly detection, destination prediction, time of arrival estimation). With the help of big data and processing huge amounts of vessels’ trajectory data, it is possible to learn these shipping routes from the navigation history of past behaviour of other, similar ships that were travelling in a given area. In this paper, we propose a spatial clustering model of vessels’ trajectories (SPTCLUST) to extract spatial representations of sailing routes from historical Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. The whole model consists of three main parts: data preprocessing, path finding, and route extraction, which consists of clustering and representative trajectory extraction. The proposed clustering method provides techniques to overcome the problems of: (i) optimal input parameters selection; (ii) the high complexity of processing a huge volume of multidimensional data; (iii) and the spatial representation of complete representative trajectory detection in the context of trajectory clustering algorithms. The experimental evaluation showed the effectiveness of the proposed model by using a real-world AIS dataset from the Port of Halifax. The results contribute to further understanding of shipping route patterns. This could aid surveillance authorities in stable and sustainable vessel traffic management.

Keywords: Vessel trajectory clustering, trajectory mining, Spatial Clustering, marine intelligent navigation, maritime traffic network extraction, sdailing routes extraction.

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Authors: Sourabh Agrawal, Ashok K. Jain

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Stick models are widely used in studying the behaviour of straight as well as skew bridges and viaducts subjected to earthquakes while carrying out preliminary studies. The application of such models to highly curved bridges continues to pose challenging problems. A viaduct proposed in the foothills of the Himalayas in Northern India is chosen for the study. It is having 8 simply supported spans @ 30 m c/c. It is doubly curved in horizontal plane with 20 m radius. It is inclined in vertical plane as well. The superstructure consists of a box section. Three models have been used: a conventional stick model, an improved stick model and a 3D finite element model. The improved stick model is employed by making use of body constraints in order to study its capabilities. The first 8 frequencies are about 9.71% away in the latter two models. Later the difference increases to 80% in 50th mode. The viaduct was subjected to all three components of the El Centro earthquake of May 1940. The numerical integration was carried out using the Hilber- Hughes-Taylor method as implemented in SAP2000. Axial forces and moments in the bridge piers as well as lateral displacements at the bearing levels are compared for the three models. The maximum difference in the axial forces and bending moments and displacements vary by 25% between the improved and finite element model. Whereas, the maximum difference in the axial forces, moments, and displacements in various sections vary by 35% between the improved stick model and equivalent straight stick model. The difference for torsional moment was as high as 75%. It is concluded that the stick model with body constraints to model the bearings and expansion joints is not desirable in very sharp S curved viaducts even for preliminary analysis. This model can be used only to determine first 10 frequency and mode shapes but not for member forces. A 3D finite element analysis must be carried out for meaningful results.

Keywords: Bearing, body constraint, box girder, curved viaduct, expansion joint, finite element, link element, seismic, stick model, time history analysis.

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Authors: M. S. Said, J. A. Ghani, Che Hassan C. H., N. N. Wan, M. A. Selamat, R. Othman

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Metal matrix composites (MMCs) attract considerable attention as a result from its ability in providing a high strength, high modulus, high toughness, high impact properties, improving wear resistance and providing good corrosion resistance compared to unreinforced alloy. Aluminium Silicon (Al/Si) alloy MMC has been widely used in various industrial sectors such as in transportation, domestic equipment, aerospace, military, construction, etc. Aluminium silicon alloy is an MMC that had been reinforced with aluminium nitrate (AlN) particle and become a new generation material use in automotive and aerospace sector. The AlN is one of the advance material that have a bright prospect in future since it has features such as lightweight, high strength, high hardness and stiffness quality. However, the high degree of ceramic particle reinforcement and the irregular nature of the particles along the matrix material that contribute to its low density is the main problem which leads to difficulties in machining process. This paper examined the tool wear when milling AlSi/AlN Metal Matrix Composite using a TiB2 (Titanium diboride) coated carbide cutting tool. The volume of the AlN reinforced particle was 10% and milling process was carried out under dry cutting condition. The TiB2 coated carbide insert parameters used were at the cutting speed of (230, 300 and 370m/min, feed rate of 0.8, Depth of Cut (DoC) at 0.4m). The Sometech SV-35 video microscope system used to quantify of the tool wear. The result shown that tool life span increasing with the cutting speeds at (370m/min, feed rate of 0.8mm/tooth and DoC at 0.4mm) which constituted an optimum condition for longer tool life lasted until 123.2 mins. Meanwhile, at medium cutting speed which at 300m/m, feed rate of 0.8mm/tooth and depth of cut at 0.4mm we found that tool life span lasted until 119.86 mins while at low cutting speed it lasted in 119.66 mins. High cutting speed will give the best parameter in cutting AlSi/AlN MMCs material. The result will help manufacturers in machining process of AlSi/AlN MMCs materials.

Keywords: AlSi/AlN Metal Matrix Composite milling process, tool wear, TiB2 coated cemented carbide tool.

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Authors: Dor Oppenheim, Yael Edan, Guy Shani

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This paper presents an image analysis algorithm to detect and count yellow tomato flowers in a greenhouse with uneven illumination conditions, complex growth conditions and different flower sizes. The algorithm is designed to be employed on a drone that flies in greenhouses to accomplish several tasks such as pollination and yield estimation. Detecting the flowers can provide useful information for the farmer, such as the number of flowers in a row, and the number of flowers that were pollinated since the last visit to the row. The developed algorithm is designed to handle the real world difficulties in a greenhouse which include varying lighting conditions, shadowing, and occlusion, while considering the computational limitations of the simple processor in the drone. The algorithm identifies flowers using an adaptive global threshold, segmentation over the HSV color space, and morphological cues. The adaptive threshold divides the images into darker and lighter images. Then, segmentation on the hue, saturation and volume is performed accordingly, and classification is done according to size and location of the flowers. 1069 images of greenhouse tomato flowers were acquired in a commercial greenhouse in Israel, using two different RGB Cameras – an LG G4 smartphone and a Canon PowerShot A590. The images were acquired from multiple angles and distances and were sampled manually at various periods along the day to obtain varying lighting conditions. Ground truth was created by manually tagging approximately 25,000 individual flowers in the images. Sensitivity analyses on the acquisition angle of the images, periods throughout the day, different cameras and thresholding types were performed. Precision, recall and their derived F1 score were calculated. Results indicate better performance for the view angle facing the flowers than any other angle. Acquiring images in the afternoon resulted with the best precision and recall results. Applying a global adaptive threshold improved the median F1 score by 3%. Results showed no difference between the two cameras used. Using hue values of 0.12-0.18 in the segmentation process provided the best results in precision and recall, and the best F1 score. The precision and recall average for all the images when using these values was 74% and 75% respectively with an F1 score of 0.73. Further analysis showed a 5% increase in precision and recall when analyzing images acquired in the afternoon and from the front viewpoint.

Keywords: Agricultural engineering, computer vision, image processing, flower detection.

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Authors: Zainoldin, K.H., Baba, A.S.

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Yogurt is a coagulated milk product obtained from the lactic acid fermentation by the action of Lactobacillus bulgaricus and Streptococcus thermophilus. The additions of fruits into milk may enhance the taste and the therapeutical values of milk products. However fruits also may change the fermentation behaviour. In this present study, the changes in physicochemical, the peptide concentration, total phenolics content and the antioxidant potential of yogurt upon the addition of Hylocereus polyrhizus and Hylocereus undatus (white and red dragon fruit) were investigated. Fruits enriched yogurt (10%, 20%, 30% w/w) were prepared and the pH, TTA, syneresis measurement, peptide concentration, total phenolics content and DPPH antioxidant inhibition percentage were determined. Milk fermentation rate was enhanced in red dragon fruit yogurt for all doses (-0.3606 - -0.4126 pH/h) while only white dragon fruit yogurt with 20% and 30% (w/w) composition showed increment in fermentation rate (-0.3471 - -0.3609 pH/h) compared to plain yogurt (-0.3369pH/h). All dragon fruit enriched yogurts generally showed lower pH readings (pH 3.95 - 4.03) compared to plain yogurt (pH 4.05). Both fruit yogurts showed a higher lactic acid percentage (1.14-1.23%) compared to plain yogurt (1.08%). Significantly higher syneresis percentage (57.19 - 70.32%) compared to plain yogurt (52.93%) were seen in all fruit enriched yogurts. The antioxidant activity of plain yogurt (19.16%) was enhanced by the presence of white and red dragon fruit (24.97- 45.74%). All fruit enriched yogurt showed an increment in total phenolic content (36.44 - 64.43mg/ml) compared to plain yogurt (20.25mg/ml). However, the addition of white and red dragon fruit did not enhance the proteolysis of milk during fermentation. Therefore, it could be concluded that the addition of white and red dragon fruit into yogurt enhanced the milk fermentation rate, lactic acid content, syneresis percentage, antioxidant activity, and total phenolics content in yogurt.

Keywords: Antioxidant activity, Hylocereus polyrhizus, Hylocereus undatus, yogurt

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Authors: Allaw Kamel, Bazzi Hasan

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Municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is among the most significant sources which threaten the global environmental health. Solid Waste Management has been an important environmental problem in developing countries because of the difficulties in finding sustainable solutions for solid wastes. Therefore, more efforts are needed to be implemented to overcome this problem. Lebanon has suffered a severe solid waste management problem in 2015, and a new landfill site was proposed to solve the existing problem. The study aims to identify and locate the most suitable area to construct a landfill taking into consideration the sustainable development to overcome the present situation and protect the future demands. Throughout the article, a landfill site selection methodology was discussed using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). Several environmental, economic and social factors were taken as criterion for selection of a landfill. Soil, geology, and LUC (Land Use and Land Cover) indices with the Sustainable Development Index were main inputs to create the final map of Environmentally Sensitive Area (ESA) for landfill site. Different factors were determined to define each index. Input data of each factor was managed, visualized and analyzed using GIS. GIS was used as an important tool to identify suitable areas for landfill. Spatial Analysis (SA), Analysis and Management GIS tools were implemented to produce input maps capable of identifying suitable areas related to each index. Weight has been assigned to each factor in the same index, and the main weights were assigned to each index used. The combination of the different indices map generates the final output map of ESA. The output map was reclassified into three suitability classes of low, moderate, and high suitability. Results showed different locations suitable for the construction of a landfill. Results also reflected the importance of GIS and MCDA in helping decision makers finding a solution of solid wastes by a sanitary landfill.

Keywords: Sustainable development, landfill, municipal solid waste, geographic information system, GIS, multi criteria decision analysis, environmentally sensitive area.

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Authors: Sudip Dasgupta, Debosmita Pani, Kanchan Maji

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Calcium Phosphate Cement (CPC) due to its high bioactivity and optimum bioresorbability shows excellent bone regeneration capability. Despite it has limited applications as bone implant due to its macro-porous microstructure causing its poor mechanical strength. The reinforcement of apatitic CPCs with biocompatible fibre glass phase is an attractive area of research to improve upon its mechanical strength. Here, we study the setting behaviour of Si-doped and un-doped α tri calcium phosphate (α - TCP) based CPC and its reinforcement with addition of E-glass fibre. Alpha Tri calcium phosphate powders were prepared by solid state sintering of CaCO3 , CaHPO4 and Tetra Ethyl Ortho Silicate (TEOS) was used as silicon source to synthesize Si doped α-TCP powders. Both initial and final setting time of the developed cement was delayed because of Si addition. Crystalline phases of HA (JCPDS 9- 432), α-TCP (JCPDS 29-359) and β-TCP (JCPDS 9-169) were detected in the X-ray diffraction (XRD) pattern after immersion of CPC in simulated body fluid (SBF) for 0 hours to 10 days. As Si incorporation in the crystal lattice stabilized the TCP phase, Si doped CPC showed little slower rate of conversion into HA phase as compared to un-doped CPC. The SEM image of the microstructure of hardened CPC showed lower grain size of HA in un-doped CPC because of premature setting and faster hydrolysis of un-doped CPC in SBF as compared that in Si-doped CPC. Premature setting caused generation of micro and macro porosity in un-doped CPC structure which resulted in its lower mechanical strength as compared to that in Si-doped CPC. It was found that addition of 10 wt% of E-glass fibre into Si-doped α-TCP increased the average DTS of CPC from 8 MPa to 15 MPa as the fibres could resists the propagation of crack by deflecting the crack tip. Our study shows that biocompatible E-glass fibre in optimum proportion in CPC matrix can enhance the mechanical strength of CPC without affecting its biocompatibility. 

Keywords: Calcium phosphate cement, biocompatibility, e-glass fibre, diametral tensile strength.

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Authors: N. Elgendy, N. Hussein

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The current Syrian crisis has caused unprecedented practices of global mobility. The process of forced eviction and the resettlement of refugees could be seen through the insights of the “new mobilities paradigm”. The mobility of refugees in terms of meaning and practice is a subject that calls for further studies. There is a need for the development of an approach to human mobility to understand a practice that is turning into a phenomenon in the 21^st century. This paper aims at studying, from a qualitative point of view, the process of movement within the six constituents of mobility defined as the first phase of the journey of a refugee. The second phase would include the process of settling in and re-defining the host country as new “home” to refugees. The change in the refugee state of mind and crossing the physical and mental borders from a “foreigner” to a citizen is encouraged by both the governmental policies and the local communities’ efforts to embrace these newcomers. The paper would focus on these policies of social and economic integration. The concept of integration connotes the idea that refugees would enjoy the opportunities, rights and services available to the citizens of the refugee’s new community. So, this paper examines this concept through showcasing the two hosting countries of Canada and Egypt, as they provide two contrasting situations in terms of cultural, geographical, economic and political backgrounds. The analysis would highlight the specific policies defined towards the refugees including the mass communication, media calls, and access to employment. This research is part of a qualitative research project on the process of Urban Mobility practiced by the Syrian Refugees, drawing on conversational interviews with new-settlers who have moved to the different hosting countries, from their home in Syria. It explores these immigrants’ practical and emotional relationships with the process of movement and settlement. It uses the conversational interviews as a tool to document analysis and draw relationships in an attempt to establish an understanding of the factors that contribute to the new-settlers feeling of home and integration within the new community.

Keywords: Mobility, refugees, home, integration.

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Authors: P. Luangpaiboon

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Various intelligences and inspirations have been adopted into the iterative searching process called as meta-heuristics. They intelligently perform the exploration and exploitation in the solution domain space aiming to efficiently seek near optimal solutions. In this work, the bee algorithm, inspired by the natural foraging behaviour of honey bees, was adapted to find the near optimal solutions of the transportation management system, dynamic multi-zone dispatching. This problem prepares for an uncertainty and changing customers- demand. In striving to remain competitive, transportation system should therefore be flexible in order to cope with the changes of customers- demand in terms of in-bound and outbound goods and technological innovations. To remain higher service level but lower cost management via the minimal imbalance scenario, the rearrangement penalty of the area, in each zone, including time periods are also included. However, the performance of the algorithm depends on the appropriate parameters- setting and need to be determined and analysed before its implementation. BEE parameters are determined through the linear constrained response surface optimisation or LCRSOM and weighted centroid modified simplex methods or WCMSM. Experimental results were analysed in terms of best solutions found so far, mean and standard deviation on the imbalance values including the convergence of the solutions obtained. It was found that the results obtained from the LCRSOM were better than those using the WCMSM. However, the average execution time of experimental run using the LCRSOM was longer than those using the WCMSM. Finally a recommendation of proper level settings of BEE parameters for some selected problem sizes is given as a guideline for future applications.

Keywords: Meta-heuristic, Bee Algorithm, Dynamic Multi-Zone Dispatching, Linear Constrained Response SurfaceOptimisation Method, Weighted Centroid Modified Simplex Method

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Authors: Xinyu Zhang, Olga Torres-Hostench

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This article presents a comparative study evaluating and comparing the quality of machine translation (MT) output of Chinese gastronomy nomenclature. Chinese gastronomic culture is experiencing an increased international acknowledgment nowadays. The nomenclature of Chinese gastronomy not only reflects a specific aspect of culture, but it is related to other areas of society such as philosophy, traditional medicine, etc. Chinese dish names are composed of several types of cultural references, such as ingredients, colors, flavors, culinary techniques, cooking utensils, toponyms, anthroponyms, metaphors, historical tales, among others. These cultural references act as one of the biggest difficulties in translation, in which the use of translation techniques is usually required. Regarding the lack of Chinese food-related translation studies, especially in Chinese-Spanish translation, and the current massive use of MT, the quality of the MT output of Chinese dish names is questioned. Fifty Chinese dish names with different types of cultural components were selected in order to complete this study. First, all of these dish names were translated by three different MT tools (Google Translate, Baidu Translate and Bing Translator). Second, a questionnaire was designed and completed by 12 Chinese online users (Chinese graduates of a Hispanic Philology major) in order to find out user preferences regarding the collected MT output. Finally, human translation techniques were observed and analyzed to identify what translation techniques would be observed more often in the preferred MT proposals. The result reveals that the MT output of the Chinese gastronomy nomenclature is not of high quality. It would be recommended not to trust the MT in occasions like restaurant menus, TV culinary shows, etc. However, the MT output could be used as an aid for tourists to have a general idea of a dish (the main ingredients, for example). Literal translation turned out to be the most observed technique, followed by borrowing, generalization and adaptation, while amplification, particularization and transposition were infrequently observed. Possibly because that the MT engines at present are limited to relate equivalent terms and offer literal translations without taking into account the whole context meaning of the dish name, which is essential to the application of those less observed techniques. This could give insight into the post-editing of the Chinese dish name translation. By observing and analyzing translation techniques in the proposals of the machine translators, the post-editors could better decide which techniques to apply in each case so as to correct mistakes and improve the quality of the translation.

Keywords: Chinese dish names, cultural references, machine translation, translation techniques.

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Authors: A. Giani

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The current pedagogical culture recognizes an educational scope within the sports practices. It is widely accepted, in the pedagogical culture, that thanks to the acquisition and development of motor skills, it is also possible to exercise abilities that concern the way of facing and managing the difficulties of everyday life. Sport is a peculiar educational environment: the children have the opportunity to discover the possibilities of their body, to correlate with their peers, and to learn how to manage the rules and the relationship with authorities, such as coaches. Educational aspects of the sport concern both non-formal and formal educational environments. Coaches play a critical role in an agonistic sphere: exactly like the competencies developed by the children, coaches have to work on their skills to properly set up the educational scene. Facing these new educational tasks - which are not new per se, but new because they are brought back to awareness - a few questions arise: does the coach have adequate preparation? Is the training of the coach in this specific area appropriate? This contribution aims to explore the issue in depth by focusing on the reality of the Football School. Starting from a possible sense of pedagogical inadequacy detected during a series of meetings with several football clubs in Piedmont (Italy), there have been highlighted some important educational needs within the professional training of sports coaches. It is indeed necessary for the coach to know the processes underlying the educational relationship in order to better understand the centrality of the assessment during the educational intervention and to be able to manage the asymmetry in the coach-athlete relationship. In order to provide a response to these pedagogical needs, a formative plan has been designed to allow both an in-depth study of educational issues and a correct self-evaluation of certain pedagogical skills’ control levels, led by the coach. This plan has been based on particular practices, the Educational Practices of Pre-test (EPP), a specific version of community practices designed for the extracurricular activities. The above-mentioned practices realized through the use of texts meant as pre-tests, promoted a reflection within the group of coaches: they set up real and plausible sports experiences - in particular football, triggering a reflection about the relationship’s object, spaces, and methods. The characteristic aspect of pre-tests is that it is impossible to anticipate the reflection as it is necessarily connected to the personal experience and sensitivity, requiring a strong interest and involvement by participants: situations must be considered by the coaches as possible settings in which they could be found on the field.

Keywords: Relational needs, responsibility, self-evaluation, values.

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Authors: Valeria Tatano, Francesca Guidolin, Francesca Peltrera

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The preservation of historical Italian heritage, at the urban and architectural scale, has to consider restrictions and requirements connected with conservation issues and usability needs, which are often at odds with historical heritage preservation. Recent decades have been marked by the search for increased accessibility not only of public and private buildings, but to the whole historical city, also for people with disability. Moreover, in the last years the concepts of Smart City and Healthy City seek to improve accessibility both in terms of mobility (independent or assisted) and fruition of goods and services, also for historical cities. The principles of Inclusive Design have introduced new criteria for the improvement of public urban space, between current regulations and best practices. Moreover, they have contributed to transforming “special needs” into an opportunity of social innovation. These considerations find a field of research and analysis in the historical city of Venice, which is at the same time a site of UNESCO world heritage, a mass tourism destination bringing in visitors from all over the world and a city inhabited by an aging population. Due to its conformation, Venetian urban fabric is only partially accessible: about four thousand bridges divide thousands of islands, making it almost impossible to move independently. These urban characteristics and difficulties were the base, in the last 20 years, for several researches, experimentations and solutions with the aim of eliminating architectural barriers, in particular for the usability of bridges. The Venetian Municipality with the EBA Office and some external consultants realized several devices (e.g. the “stepped ramp” and the new accessible ramps for the Venice Marathon) that should determine an innovation for the city, passing from the use of mechanical replicable devices to specific architectural projects in order to guarantee autonomy in use. This paper intends to present the state-of-the-art in bridges accessibility, through an analysis based on Inclusive Design principles and on the current national and regional regulation. The purpose is to evaluate some possible strategies that could improve performances, between limits and possibilities of interventions. The aim of the research is to lay the foundations for the development of a strategic program for the City of Venice that could successfully bring together both conservation and improvement requirements.

Keywords: Accessibility and inclusive design, historical heritage preservation, technological and social innovation.

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Authors: Wan-Yu Liu

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To respond to the Kyoto Protocol, the policy of Payment for Environmental Service (PES), which was entitled “Plain Landscape Afforestation Program (PLAP)", was certified by Executive Yuan in Taiwan on 31 August 2001 and has been implementing for six years since 1 January 2002. Although the PLAP has received a lot of positive comments, there are still many difficulties during the process of implementation, such as insufficient technology for afforestation, private landowners- low interests in participating in PLAP, insufficient subsidies, and so on, which are potential threats that hinder the PLAP from moving forward in future. In this paper, selecting Ping-Tung County in Taiwan as a sample region and targeting those private landowners with and without intention to participate in the PLAP, respectively, we conduct an empirical analysis based on the Logit model to investigate the factors that determine whether those private landowners join the PLAP, so as to realize the incentive effects of the PLAP upon the personal decision on afforestation. The possible factors that might determine private landowner-s participation in the PLAP include landowner-s characteristics, cropland characteristics, as well as policy factors. Among them, the policy factors include afforestation subsidy amount (+), duration of afforestation subsidy (+), the rules on adjoining and adjacent areas (+), and so on, which do not reach the remarkable level in statistics though, but the directions of variable signs are consistent with the intuition behind the policy. As for the landowners- characteristics, each of age (+), education level (–), and annual household income (+) variables reaches 10% of the remarkable level in statistics; as for the cropland characteristics, each of cropland area (+), cropland price (–), and the number of cropland parcels (–) reaches 1% of the remarkable level in statistics. In light of the above, the cropland characteristics are the dominate factor that determines the probability of landowner-s participation in the PLAP. In the Logit model established by this paper, the probability of correctly estimating nonparticipants is 98%, the probability of correctly estimating the participants is 71.8%, and the probability for the overall estimation is 95%. In addition, Hosmer-Lemeshow test and omnibus test also revealed that the Logit model in this paper may provide fine goodness of fit and good predictive power in forecasting private landowners- participation in this program. The empirical result of this paper expects to help the implementation of the afforestation programs in Taiwan.

Keywords: Forestry policy, logit, afforestation subsidy, afforestation policy.

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