Search results for: emerging economy
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 856

Search results for: emerging economy

526 Cloud Computing-s Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) Delivery Model Benefits Technical Courses in Higher Education

Authors: Janet L. Kourik, Jiangping Wang

Abstract:

Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) is a form of cloud computing that relieves the user of the burden of hardware and software installation and management. SaaS can be used at the course level to enhance curricula and student experience. When cloud computing and SaaS are included in educational literature, the focus is typically on implementing administrative functions. Yet, SaaS can make more immediate and substantial contributions to the technical course content in educational offerings. This paper explores cloud computing and SaaS, provides examples, reports on experiences using SaaS to offer specialized software in courses, and analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of using SaaS at the course level. The paper contributes to the literature in higher education by analyzing the major technical concepts, potential, and constraints for using SaaS to deliver specialized software at the course level. Further it may enable more educators and students to benefit from this emerging technology.

Keywords: Cloud computing, software-as-a-service, e-service, higher education.

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525 Development of a Quantitative Material Wastage Management Plan for Effective Waste Reduction in the Building Construction Industry

Authors: Kwok Tak Kit

Abstract:

Combating climate change is becoming a hot topic in various sectors. Building construction and infrastructure sectors contributed a significant proportion of waste and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the environment of different countries and cities. However, there is little research on the micro-level of waste management, “building construction material wastage management,” and fewer reviews about regulatory control in the building construction sector. This paper focuses on the potentialities and importance of material wastage management and reviews the deficiencies of the current standard to take into account the reduction of material wastage in a systematic and quantitative approach.

Keywords: Quantitative measurement, material wastage management plan, waste management, uncalculated waste, circular economy.

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524 From Individual Memory to Organizational Memory (Intelligence of Organizations)

Authors: A. Bencsik, 1V. Lıre, 2, I. Marosi

Abstract:

Intensive changes of environment and strong market competition have raised management of information and knowledge to the strategic level of companies. In a knowledge based economy only those organizations are capable of living which have up-to-date, special knowledge and they are able to exploit and develop it. Companies have to know what knowledge they have by taking a survey of organizational knowledge and they have to fix actual and additional knowledge in organizational memory. The question is how to identify, acquire, fix and use knowledge effectively. The paper will show that over and above the tools of information technology supporting acquisition, storage and use of information and organizational learning as well as knowledge coming into being as a result of it, fixing and storage of knowledge in the memory of a company play an important role in the intelligence of organizations and competitiveness of a company.

Keywords: Individual memory, organizational memory, knowledge management, organizational intelligence.

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523 How Can We Carry Out Green Incentives Most Efficiently?

Authors: Peter Yang

Abstract:

Green incentives are included in the “American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009" (ARRA). It is, however, unclear how these government incentives can be carried out most effectively according to market-based principles and if they can serve as a catalyst for an accelerated green transformation and an ultimate solution to the current U.S. and global economic and financial crisis. The article will compare the existing U.S. green economic policies with those in Germany, identify problems, and suggest improvements to allow the green stimulus incentives to achieve the best results in the process of an accelerated green transformation. The author argues that the current U.S. green stimulus incentives can only be most successful if they are carried out as part of a visionary, comprehensive, long-term, and consistent strategy of the green economic transformation.

Keywords: Green incentives, financial crisis, green economy, renewable energy sources, energy efficiency.

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522 Tobephobia: Teachers- Ineptitude to Manage Curriculum Change

Authors: P. Singh

Abstract:

In this paper, Tobephobia (TBP) alludes to the fear of failure experienced by teachers to manage curriculum change. TBP is an emerging concept and it extends the boundaries of research in terms of how we view achievement and failure in education. Outcomes-based education (OBE) was introduced fifteen years ago in South African schools without simultaneously upgrading teachers- professional competencies. This exploratory research, therefore examines a simple question: What is the impact of TBP and OBE on teachers? Teacher ineptitude to cope with the OBE curriculum in the classroom is a serious problem affecting large numbers of South African teachers. This exploratory study sought to determine the perceived negative impact of OBE and TBP on teachers. A survey was conducted amongst 311 teachers in Port Elizabeth and Durban, South Africa. The results confirm the very negative impact of TBP and OBE on teachers. This exploratory study authenticates the existence of TBP.

Keywords: Curriculum change, fear of failure in education, outcomes-based education, Tobephobia.

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521 Mathematical Modeling of the Working Principle of Gravity Gradient Instrument

Authors: Danni Cong, Meiping Wu, Hua Mu, Xiaofeng He, Junxiang Lian, Juliang Cao, Shaokun Cai, Hao Qin

Abstract:

Gravity field is of great significance in geoscience, national economy and national security, and gravitational gradient measurement has been extensively studied due to its higher accuracy than gravity measurement. Gravity gradient sensor, being one of core devices of the gravity gradient instrument, plays a key role in measuring accuracy. Therefore, this paper starts from analyzing the working principle of the gravity gradient sensor by Newton’s law, and then considers the relative motion between inertial and non-inertial systems to build a relatively adequate mathematical model, laying a foundation for the measurement error calibration, measurement accuracy improvement.

Keywords: Gravity gradient, accelerometer, gravity gradient sensor, single-axis rotation modulation.

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520 Parameters Influencing the Output Precision of a Lens-Lens Beam Generator Solar Concentrator

Authors: M. Tawfik, X. Tonnellier, C. Sansom

Abstract:

The Lens-Lens Beam Generator (LLBG) is a Fresnel-based optical concentrating technique which provides flexibility in selecting the solar receiver location compared to conventional techniques through generating a powerful concentrated collimated solar beam. In order to achieve that, two successive lenses are used and followed by a flat mirror. Hence the generated beam emerging from the LLBG has a high power flux which impinges on the target receiver, it is important to determine the precision of the system output. In this present work, mathematical investigation of different parameters affecting the precision of the output beam is carried out. These parameters include: Deflection in sun-facing lens and its holding arm, delay in updating the solar tracking system, and the flat mirror surface flatness. Moreover, relationships that describe the power lost due to the effect of each parameter are derived in this study.

Keywords: Fresnel lens, LLBG, solar concentrator, solar tracking.

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519 A Preliminary Technology Assessment Analysis for the use of High Pressure Treatment on Halloumi Cheese

Authors: Michalis Menicou, Stavros Christofi, Niki Chartosia, Vassos Vassiliou, Marios Charalambides

Abstract:

This paper presents preliminary results of a technology assessment analysis for the use of high pressure treatment (HPT) on Halloumi cheese. In particular, it presents the importance of this traditional Cyprus cheese to the island-s economy, explains its production process, and gives a brief introduction to HPT and its application on cheese. More importantly, it offers preliminary results of HPT of Halloumi samples and a preliminary economic feasibility study on the financial implications of the introduction of such technology.

Keywords: Economic feasibility analysis, high pressure treatment, Halloumi cheese, technology assessment

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518 Selective Forwarding Attack and Its Detection Algorithms: A Review

Authors: Sushil Sarwa, Rajeev Kumar

Abstract:

The wireless mesh networks (WMNs) are emerging technology in wireless networking as they can serve large scale high speed internet access. Due to its wireless multi-hop feature, wireless mesh network is prone to suffer from many attacks, such as denial of service attack (DoS). We consider a special case of DoS attack which is selective forwarding attack (a.k.a. gray hole attack). In such attack, a misbehaving mesh router selectively drops the packets it receives rom its predecessor mesh router. It is very hard to detect that packet loss is due to medium access collision, bad channel quality or because of selective forwarding attack. In this paper, we present a review of detection algorithms of selective forwarding attack and discuss their advantage & disadvantage. Finally we conclude this paper with open research issues and challenges.

Keywords: CAD algorithm, CHEMAS, selective forwarding attack, watchdog & pathrater, wireless mesh network.

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517 An Empirical Analysis of Earnings Management in Australia

Authors: Lan Sun, Subhrendu Rath

Abstract:

This is a comprehensive large-sample study of Australian earnings management. Using a sample of 4,844 firm-year observations across nine Australia industries from 2000 to 2006, we find substantial corporate earnings management activity across several Australian industries. We document strong evidence of size and return on assets being primary determinants of earnings management in Australia. The effects of size and return on assets are also found to be dominant in both income-increasing and incomedecreasing earnings manipulation. We also document that that periphery sector firms are more likely to involve larger magnitude of earnings management than firms in the core sector.

Keywords: Earnings management, discretionary accruals, income-increasing/decreasing manipulation, dual economy sector

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516 Evaluation Method for Information Security Levels of CIIP (Critical Information Infrastructure Protection)

Authors: Soon-Tai Park, Jong-Whoi Shin, Bog-Ki Min, Ik-Sub Lee, Gang-Shin Lee, Jae-Il Lee

Abstract:

As the information age matures, major social infrastructures such as communication, finance, military and energy, have become ever more dependent on information communication systems. And since these infrastructures are connected to the Internet, electronic intrusions such as hacking and viruses have become a new security threat. Especially, disturbance or neutralization of a major social infrastructure can result in extensive material damage and social disorder. To address this issue, many nations around the world are researching and developing various techniques and information security policies as a government-wide effort to protect their infrastructures from newly emerging threats. This paper proposes an evaluation method for information security levels of CIIP (Critical Information Infrastructure Protection), which can enhance the security level of critical information infrastructure by checking the current security status and establish security measures accordingly to protect infrastructures effectively.

Keywords: Information Security Evaluation Methodology, Critical Information Infrastructure Protection.

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515 Empirical Statistical Modeling of Rainfall Prediction over Myanmar

Authors: Wint Thida Zaw, Thinn Thu Naing

Abstract:

One of the essential sectors of Myanmar economy is agriculture which is sensitive to climate variation. The most important climatic element which impacts on agriculture sector is rainfall. Thus rainfall prediction becomes an important issue in agriculture country. Multi variables polynomial regression (MPR) provides an effective way to describe complex nonlinear input output relationships so that an outcome variable can be predicted from the other or others. In this paper, the modeling of monthly rainfall prediction over Myanmar is described in detail by applying the polynomial regression equation. The proposed model results are compared to the results produced by multiple linear regression model (MLR). Experiments indicate that the prediction model based on MPR has higher accuracy than using MLR.

Keywords: Polynomial Regression, Rainfall Forecasting, Statistical forecasting.

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514 South African MNEs Entry Strategies in Africa

Authors: N.M. Museisi

Abstract:

This is a cross-cultural study that determines South African multinational enterprises (MNEs) entry strategies as they invest in Africa. An integrated theoretical framework comprising the transaction cost theory, Uppsala model, eclectic paradigm and the distance framework was adopted. A sample of 40 South African MNEs with 415 existing FDI entries in Africa was drawn. Using an ordered logistic regression model, the impact of culture on the choice of degree of control by South African MNEs in Africa was determined. Cultural distance was one of significant factors that influenced South African MNEs- choice of degree of control. Furthermore, South African MNEs are risk averse in all countries in Africa but minimize the risks differently across sectors. Service sectors chooses to own their subsidiaries 100% and avoid dealing with the locals while manufacturing, resources and construction choose to have a local partner to share the risk.

Keywords: Cross-cultural, emerging MNEs, entry strategies, internationalization.

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513 Introducing Successful Financial Innovations: Rewriting the Rules in Light of the Global Financial Crisis

Authors: Abdel Aziz, Hadia H.

Abstract:

Since the 1980s, banks and financial service institutions have been running in an endless race of innovation to cope with the advancing technology, the fierce competition, and the more sophisticated and demanding customers. In order to guide their innovation efforts, several researches were conducted to identify the success and failure factors of new financial services. These mainly included organizational factors, marketplace factors and new service development process factors. They almost all emphasized the importance of customer and market orientation as a response to the highly perceptual and intangible characteristics of financial services. However, they deemphasized the critical characteristics of high involvement of risk and close correlation with the economic conditions, a factor that heavily contributed to the Global financial Crisis of 2008. This paper reviews the success and failure factors of new financial services. It then adds new perspectives emerging from the analysis of the role of innovation in the global financial crisis.

Keywords: Financial innovation, global financial crisis, lessons learned from global financial crisis, success factors in financial innovation.

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512 Gap Analysis of Cassava Sector in Cameroon

Authors: Elise Stephanie Mvodo Meyo, Dapeng Liang

Abstract:

Recently, Cassava has been the driving force of many developing countries- economic progress. To attain this level, prerequisites were put in place enabling cassava sector to become an industrial and a highly competitive crop. Cameroon can achieve the same results. Moreover, it can upgrade the living conditions of both rural and urban dwellers and stimulate the development of the whole economy. Achieving this outcome calls for agricultural policy reforms. The adoption and implementation of adequate policies go along with efficient strategies. To choose effective strategies, an indepth investigation of the sector-s problems is highly recommended. This paper uses gap analysis method to evaluate cassava sector in Cameroon. It studies the present situation (where it is now), interrogates the future (where it should be) and finally proposes solutions to fill the gap.

Keywords: Cameroon, cassava sector, drivers of agricultural growth, gap analysis.

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511 Molding Properties of Cobalt-Chrome-Based Feedstocks Used in Low-Pressure Powder Injection Molding

Authors: Ehsan Gholami, Vincent Demers

Abstract:

Low-pressure powder injection molding is an emerging technology for cost-effectively producing complex shape metallic parts with the proper dimensional tolerances, either in high or in low production volumes. In this study, the molding properties of cobalt-chrome-based feedstocks were evaluated for use in a low-pressure powder injection molding process. The rheological properties of feedstock formulations were obtained by mixing metallic powder with a proprietary wax-based binder system. Rheological parameters such as reference viscosity, shear rate sensitivity index, and activation energy for viscous flow, were extracted from the viscosity profiles and introduced into the Weir model to calculate the moldability index. Feedstocks were experimentally injected into a spiral mold cavity to validate the injection performance calculated with the model.

Keywords: Binder, feedstock, moldability, powder injection molding, viscosity.

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510 Forward Simulation of a Parallel Hybrid Vehicle and Fuzzy Controller Design for Driving/Regenerative Propose

Authors: Peyman Naderi, Ali Farhadi, S. Mohammad Taghi Bathaee

Abstract:

One of the best ways for achievement of conventional vehicle changing to hybrid case is trustworthy simulation result and using of driving realities. For this object, in this paper, at first sevendegree- of-freedom dynamical model of vehicle will be shown. Then by using of statically model of engine, gear box, clutch, differential, electrical machine and battery, the hybrid automobile modeling will be down and forward simulation of vehicle for pedals to wheels power transformation will be obtained. Then by design of a fuzzy controller and using the proper rule base, fuel economy and regenerative braking will be marked. Finally a series of MATLAB/SIMULINK simulation results will be proved the effectiveness of proposed structure.

Keywords: Hybrid, Driving, Fuzzy, Regeneration.

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509 The Role of Private Equity during Global Crises

Authors: Libena Cernohorska, Veronika Linhartova, Michal Sinka, Petr Teply

Abstract:

The term private equity usually refers to any type of equity investment in an asset in which the equity is not freely tradable on a public stock market. Some researchers believe that private equity contributed to the extent of the crisis and increased the pace of its spread over the world. We do not agree with this. On the other hand, we argue that during the economic recession private equity might become an important source of funds for firms with special needs (e.g. for firms seeking buyout financing, venture capital, expansion capital or distress debt financing). However, over-regulation of private equity in both the European Union and the US can slow down this specific funding channel to the economy and deepen credit crunch during global crises.

Keywords: scredit lunch, distress debt, global crisis, private equity, regulation

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508 The Comparison of Competitiveness of Selected Countries of the European Economic Area

Authors: Ingrid Majerová, Michaela Horúcková

Abstract:

The concept of competitiveness is currently very frequently used term. However, the interpretation of its essence is different. In this paper, one of the many concepts of competitiveness will be analyzed and that is macroeconomic competitiveness, which is understood as a process, which is based on the productivity growth through the growth of key macroeconomic indicators such as standards of living and employment, where all of these variables must have a sustainable basis. Given the competition is a relative quantity it must be constantly compared with the development of competitiveness in other economies or regions. And this comparison method is also used in the article that compares the macrocompetitiveness of selected economies of the European Economic Area – the Czech Republic, Poland, Austria, Switzerland and Germany. The aim of the paper is to verify the hypothesis concerning the direct correlation between the size of the economy and its competitiveness.

Keywords: Comparison, Competitiveness, European Economic Area, Global Competitiveness Index, Immeasurable Indicators of Competitiveness, Macro-competitiveness.

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507 Analysis of Investment in Knowledge inside OECD Countries

Authors: JunSeok Hwang, Mohsen Gerami

Abstract:

Knowledge is the foundation for growth and development. Investment in knowledge improves new method for originate knowledge society and knowledge economy. Investment in knowledge embraces expenditure on education and R&D and software. Measuring of investment in knowledge is characteristically complicated. We examine the influence of investment in knowledge in multifactor productivity growth and numbers of patent. We analyze the annual growth of investment in knowledge and we estimate portion of each country intended for produce total investment in knowledge on the whole OECD. We determine the relative efficiency of average patent numbers with average investment in knowledge and we compare GDP growth rates and growth of knowledge investment. The main purpose in this paper is to study to evaluate different aspect, influence and output of investment in knowledge in OECD countries.

Keywords: Knowledge, GDP, Multifactor productivity, Investment, efficiency.

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506 Gender Discrimination and Pay Gap on Tourism Labor Market

Authors: Alka Obadić

Abstract:

The research concentrates on the role of tourism in generating female employment and on impact of gender discrimination in tourism sector. Unfortunately, in many countries there are still some barriers to the inclusion of women at all hierarchical levels of tourism labor market. Research analysis focuses on EU countries where tourism is a main employer of women. The analysis shows that women represent over third persons employed in the non-financial business economy and almost two thirds in core tourism activities. Women's gross hourly earnings in accommodation and food services were below those of men in the European Union and only countries who recorded increase of gender pay gap from the beginning of crisis are Bulgaria and Croatia. Women in tourism industry are still overrepresented in lower status jobs with fewer opportunities for career progression and are often treated unequally.

Keywords: Employment, gender discrimination, tourism, women’s participation.

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505 A Novel Methodology Proposed for Optimizing the Degree of Hybridization in Parallel HEVs using Genetic Algorithm

Authors: K. Varesi, A. Radan

Abstract:

In this paper, a new Genetic Algorithm (GA) based methodology is proposed to optimize the Degree of Hybridization (DOH) in a passenger parallel hybrid car. At first step, target parameters for the vehicle are decided and then using ADvanced VehIcle SimulatOR (ADVISOR) software, the variation pattern of these target parameters, across the different DOHs, is extracted. At the next step, a suitable cost function is defined and is optimized using GA. In this paper, also a new technique has been proposed for deciding the number of battery modules for each DOH, which leads to a great improvement in the vehicle performance. The proposed methodology is so simple, fast and at the same time, so efficient.

Keywords: Degree of Hybridization (DOH), Electric Motor, Emissions, Fuel Economy, Genetic Algorithm (GA), Hybrid ElectricVehicle (HEV), Vehicle Performance

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504 The Emerging Central Business District (CBD) in Lafia Town, Nigeria, and its Related Urban Planning Problems

Authors: Barau Daniel, Bashayi Obadiah

Abstract:

A spatial analysis of a large 20th century urban settlement (town/city) easily presents the celebrated central Business District (CBD). Theories of Urban Land Economics have easily justified and attempted to explain the existence of such a district activity area within the cityscape. This work examines the gradual emergence and development of the CBD in Lafia Town, Nigeria over 20 years and the attended urban problems caused by its emergence. Personal knowledge and observation of land use change are the main sources of data for the work, with unstructured interview with residents. The result are that the absence of a co-ordinate land use plan for the town, multi-nuclei nature, and regional location of surrounding towns have affected the growth pattern, hence the CBD. Traffic congestion, dispersed CBD land uses are some of the urban planning problems. The work concludes by advocating for integrating CBD uses.

Keywords: Urban planning, Central Business District (CBD), downtown.

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503 Building Virtual Reality Environments for Distance Education on the Web: A Case Study in Medical Education

Authors: Kosmas Dimitropoulos, Athanasios Manitsaris, Ioannis Mavridis

Abstract:

The paper presents an investigation into the role of virtual reality and web technologies in the field of distance education. Within this frame, special emphasis is given on the building of web-based virtual learning environments so as to successfully fulfill their educational objectives. In particular, basic pedagogical methods are studied, focusing mainly on the efficient preparation, approach and presentation of learning content, and specific designing rules are presented considering the hypermedia, virtual and educational nature of this kind of applications. The paper also aims to highlight the educational benefits arising from the use of virtual reality technology in medicine and study the emerging area of web-based medical simulations. Finally, an innovative virtual reality environment for distance education in medicine is demonstrated. The proposed environment reproduces conditions of the real learning process and enhances learning through a real-time interactive simulator.

Keywords: Distance education, medicine, virtual reality, web.

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502 Sentiment Analysis: Comparative Analysis of Multilingual Sentiment and Opinion Classification Techniques

Authors: Sannikumar Patel, Brian Nolan, Markus Hofmann, Philip Owende, Kunjan Patel

Abstract:

Sentiment analysis and opinion mining have become emerging topics of research in recent years but most of the work is focused on data in the English language. A comprehensive research and analysis are essential which considers multiple languages, machine translation techniques, and different classifiers. This paper presents, a comparative analysis of different approaches for multilingual sentiment analysis. These approaches are divided into two parts: one using classification of text without language translation and second using the translation of testing data to a target language, such as English, before classification. The presented research and results are useful for understanding whether machine translation should be used for multilingual sentiment analysis or building language specific sentiment classification systems is a better approach. The effects of language translation techniques, features, and accuracy of various classifiers for multilingual sentiment analysis is also discussed in this study.

Keywords: Cross-language analysis, machine learning, machine translation, sentiment analysis.

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501 Entrepreneurship Game: Digital 'Catur Bistari'

Authors: A.A. Amran, S. R. M. Shukri, S. M. Taib

Abstract:

The role of entrepreneurs in generating the economy is very important. Thus, nurturing entrepreneurship skills among society is very crucial and should start from the early age. One of the methods is to teach through game such as board game. Game provides a fun and interactive platform for players to learn and play. Besides that as today-s world is moving towards Islamic approach in terms of finance, banking and entertainment but Islamic based game is still hard to find in the market especially games on entrepreneurship. Therefore, there is a gap in this segment that can be filled by learning entrepreneurship through game. The objective of this paper is to develop an entrepreneurship digital-based game entitled “Catur Bistari" that is based on Islamic business approach. Knowledge and skill of entrepreneurship and Islamic business approach will be learned through the tasks that are incorporated inside the game.

Keywords: Board game, educational game, entrepreneurship, Islamic finance and simulation.

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500 An Investigation into the Role of Market Beta in Asset Pricing: Evidence from the Romanian Stock Market

Authors: Ioan Popa, Radu Lupu, Cristiana Tudor

Abstract:

In this paper, we apply the FM methodology to the cross-section of Romanian-listed common stocks and investigate the explanatory power of market beta on the cross-section of commons stock returns from Bucharest Stock Exchange. Various assumptions are empirically tested, such us linearity, market efficiency, the “no systematic effect of non-beta risk" hypothesis or the positive expected risk-return trade-off hypothesis. We find that the Romanian stock market shows the same properties as the other emerging markets in terms of efficiency and significance of the linear riskreturn models. Our analysis included weekly returns from January 2002 until May 2010 and the portfolio formation, estimation and testing was performed in a rolling manner using 51 observations (one year) for each stage of the analysis.

Keywords: Bucharest Stock Exchange, Fama-Macbeth methodology, systematic risk, non-linear risk-return dependence.

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499 LQG Flight Control of VTAV for Enhanced Situational Awareness

Authors: Igor Astrov, Mikhail Pikkov, Rein Paluoja

Abstract:

This paper focuses on a critical component of the situational awareness (SA), the control of autonomous vertical flight for vectored thrust aerial vehicle (VTAV). With the SA strategy, we proposed a linear-quadratic-Gaussian (LQG) flight control procedure for an unmanned helicopter model with vectored thrust configuration. This LQG control for chosen model of VTAV has been verified by simulation of take-off and landing maneuvers using software package Simulink and demonstrated good performance for fast flight stabilization of model, consequently, fast SA with economy in energy can be asserted during search-and-rescue operations.

Keywords: Linear-Quadratic-Gaussian (LQG) controller, situational awareness, vectored thrust aerial vehicle.

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498 Synergy in Vertical Transformations of Expert Designers

Authors: G. Haupt

Abstract:

Existing literature ondesign reasoning seems to give either one sided accounts on expert design behaviour based on internal processing. In the same way ecological theoriesseem to focus one sidedly on external elementsthat result in a lack of unifying design cognition theory. Although current extended design cognition studies acknowledge the intellectual interaction between internal and external resources, there still seems to be insufficient understanding of the complexities involved in such interactive processes. As such,this paper proposes a novelmulti-directional model for design researchers tomap the complex and dynamic conduct controlling behaviour in which both the computational and ecological perspectives are integrated in a vertical manner. A clear distinction between identified intentional and emerging physical drivers, and relationships between them during the early phases of experts- design process, is demonstrated by presenting a case study in which the model was employed.

Keywords: External representation, early phases, extended design cognition, internal processes and external drivers, conduct controlling behaviour.

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497 Application of Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System in Macroeconomic Variables Forecasting

Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we apply an Adaptive Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with one input, the dependent variable with one lag, for the forecasting of four macroeconomic variables of US economy, the Gross Domestic Product, the inflation rate, six monthly treasury bills interest rates and unemployment rate. We compare the forecasting performance of ANFIS with those of the widely used linear autoregressive and nonlinear smoothing transition autoregressive (STAR) models. The results are greatly in favour of ANFIS indicating that is an effective tool for macroeconomic forecasting used in academic research and in research and application by the governmental and other institutions

Keywords: Linear models, Macroeconomics, Neuro-Fuzzy, Non-Linear models

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