Search results for: computer emergency response team

Authors: Adibah Shuib, Zati Aqmar Zaharudin

Abstract:

Our study is concerned with the development of an Emergency Medical Services (EMS) ambulance location and allocation model called the Time-based Ambulance Zoning Optimization Model (TAZ_OPT). This paper presents the framework of the study. The model is formulated using the goal programming (GP), where the goals are to determine the satellite locations of ambulances and the number of ambulances to be allocated at these locations. The model aims at maximizing the expected demand coverage based on probability of reaching the emergency location within targetted time, and minimizing the ambulance busyness likelihood value. Among the benefits of the model is the increased accessibility and availability of ambulances, thus, enhanced quality of the EMS ambulance services.

Keywords: Optimization, Ambulance Location, Location facilities.

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Authors: Frantisek Bozek, Alena Bumbova, Eduard Bakos

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Paper is dealing with vulnerability concerning elements of hydrological structures and elements of technological equipments which are acceptable for groundwater resources. The vulnerability assessment stems from the application of the register of hazards and a potential threat to individual water source elements within each type of hazard. The proposed procedure is pattern for assessing the risks of disturbance, damage, or destruction of water source by the identified natural or technological hazards and consequently for classification of these risks in relation to emergency water supply. Using of this procedure was verified on selected groundwater resource in particular region, which seems to be as potentially useful for crisis planning system.

Keywords: Hazard, Hydrogeological Structure, Elements, Index, Sensitivity, Water Source, Vulnerability

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Authors: Joanna M. Dulińska, Maria Fabijańska

Abstract:

In the paper a detailed analysis of the dynamic response of a cooling tower shell to mining tremors originated from two main regions of mining activity in Poland (Upper Silesian Coal Basin and Legnica-Glogow Copper District) was presented. The representative time histories registered in the both regions were used as ground motion data in calculations of the dynamic response of the structure. It was proved that the dynamic response of the shell is strongly dependent not only on the level of vibration amplitudes but on the dominant frequency range of the mining shock typical for the mining region as well. Also a vertical component of vibrations occurred to have considerable influence on the total dynamic response of the shell. Finally, it turned out that non-uniformity of kinematic excitation resulting from spatial variety of ground motion plays a significant role in dynamic analysis of large-dimensional shells under mining shocks.

Keywords: Cooling towers, dynamic response, mining tremors, non-uniform kinematic excitation

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Authors: B. Chemali, B. Tiliouine

Abstract:

This article presents the main results of a numerical investigation on the uncertainty of dynamic response of structures with statistically correlated random damping Gamma distributed. A computational method based on a Linear Statistical Model (LSM) is implemented to predict second order statistics for the response of a typical industrial building structure. The significance of random damping with correlated parameters and its implications on the sensitivity of structural peak response in the neighborhood of a resonant frequency are discussed in light of considerable ranges of damping uncertainties and correlation coefficients. The results are compared to those generated using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The numerical results obtained show the importance of damping uncertainty and statistical correlation of damping coefficients when obtaining accurate probabilistic estimates of dynamic response of structures. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the LSM model to efficiently predict uncertainty propagation for structural dynamic problems with correlated damping parameters is demonstrated.

Keywords: Correlated random damping, linear statistical model, Monte Carlo simulation, uncertainty of dynamic response.

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Authors: Satean Tunyasrirut, Tianchai Suksri, Arjin Numsomran, Supan Gulpanich, Kitti Tirasesth

Abstract:

This paper presents the approach to design the Auto- Tuning PID controller for interactive Water Level Process using integral step response. The Integral Step Response (ISR) is the method to model a dynamic process which can be done easily, conveniently and very efficiently. Therefore this method is advantage for design the auto tune PID controller. Our scheme uses the root locus technique to design PID controller. In this paper MATLAB is used for modeling and testing of the control system. The experimental results of the interacting water level process can be satisfyingly illustrated the transient response and the steady state response.

Keywords: Coupled-Tank, Interacting water level process, PIDController, Auto-tuning.

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Authors: V.Bharathi, Jamila Patterson, R.Rajendiran

Abstract:

Optimization of extraction of phenolic compounds from Avicennia marina using response surface methodology was carried out during the present study. Five levels, three factors rotatable design (CCRD) was utilized to examine the optimum combination of extraction variables based on the TPC of Avicennia marina leaves. The best combination of response function was 78.41 °C, drying temperature; 26.18°C; extraction temperature and 36.53 minutes of extraction time. However, the procedure can be promptly extended to the study of several others pharmaceutical processes like purification of bioactive substances, drying of extracts and development of the pharmaceutical dosage forms for the benefit of consumers.

Keywords: Avicennia marina, Central Composite RotatableDesign (CCRD), Response Surface Methodology, Total Phenoliccontents (TPC)

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Authors: Angelina A. Tzacheva, Jaishree Ranganathan

Abstract:

Interest in (STEM) Science Technology Engineering Mathematics education especially Computer Science education has seen a drastic increase across the country. This fuels effort towards recruiting and admitting a diverse population of students. Thus the changing conditions in terms of the student population, diversity and the expected teaching and learning outcomes give the platform for use of Innovative Teaching models and technologies. It is necessary that these methods adapted should also concentrate on raising quality of such innovations and have positive impact on student learning. Light-Weight Team is an Active Learning Pedagogy, which is considered to be low-stake activity and has very little or no direct impact on student grades. Emotion plays a major role in student’s motivation to learning. In this work we use the student feedback data with emotion classification using surveys at a public research institution in the United States. We use Actionable Pattern Discovery method for this purpose. Actionable patterns are patterns that provide suggestions in the form of rules to help the user achieve better outcomes. The proposed method provides meaningful insight in terms of changes that can be incorporated in the Light-Weight team activities, resources utilized in the course. The results suggest how to enhance student emotions to a more positive state, in particular focuses on the emotions ‘Trust’ and ‘Joy’.

Keywords: Actionable pattern discovery, education, emotion, data mining.

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Authors: Yu-Lin Liao, Ya-Fu Peng

Abstract:

An adaptive dynamic cerebellar model articulation controller (DCMAC) neural network used for solving the prediction and identification problem is proposed in this paper. The proposed DCMAC has superior capability to the conventional cerebellar model articulation controller (CMAC) neural network in efficient learning mechanism, guaranteed system stability and dynamic response. The recurrent network is embedded in the DCMAC by adding feedback connections in the association memory space so that the DCMAC captures the dynamic response, where the feedback units act as memory elements. The dynamic gradient descent method is adopted to adjust DCMAC parameters on-line. Moreover, the analytical method based on a Lyapunov function is proposed to determine the learning-rates of DCMAC so that the variable optimal learning-rates are derived to achieve most rapid convergence of identifying error. Finally, the adaptive DCMAC is applied in two computer simulations. Simulation results show that accurate identifying response and superior dynamic performance can be obtained because of the powerful on-line learning capability of the proposed DCMAC.

Keywords: adaptive, cerebellar model articulation controller, CMAC, prediction, identification

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Authors: A. A. Akande, B. P. Dhonge, B. W. Mwakikunga, A. G. J. Machatine

Abstract:

This article presents gate-voltage controlled humidity sensing performance of vanadium dioxide nanoparticles prepared from NH₄VO₃ precursor using microwave irradiation technique. The X-ray diffraction, transmission electron diffraction, and Raman analyses reveal the formation of VO₂ (B) with V₂O₅ and an amorphous phase. The BET surface area is found to be 67.67 m²/g. The humidity sensing measurements using the patented lateral-gate MOSFET configuration was carried out. The results show the optimum response at 5 V up to 8 V of gate voltages for 10 to 80% of relative humidity. The dose-response equation reveals the enhanced resilience of the gated VO₂ sensor which may saturate above 272% humidity. The response and recovery times are remarkably much faster (about 60 s) than in non-gated VO₂ sensors which normally show response and recovery times of the order of 5 minutes (300 s).

Keywords: VO2, VO2 (B), V2O5, MOSFET, gate voltage, humidity sensor.

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Authors: N. Basanta Singh, Sanjoy Deb, G. P Mishra, Subir Kumar Sarkar

Abstract:

Carrier mobility has become the most important characteristic of high speed low dimensional devices. Due to development of very fast switching semiconductor devices, speed of computer and communication equipment has been increasing day by day and will continue to do so in future. As the response of any device depends on the carrier motion within the devices, extensive studies of carrier mobility in the devices has been established essential for the growth in the field of low dimensional devices. Small-signal ac transport of degenerate two-dimensional hot electrons in GaAs quantum wells is studied here incorporating deformation potential acoustic, polar optic and ionized impurity scattering in the framework of heated drifted Fermi-Dirac carrier distribution. Delta doping is considered in the calculations to investigate the effects of double delta doping on millimeter and submillimeter wave response of two dimensional hot electrons in GaAs nanostructures. The inclusion of delta doping is found to enhance considerably the two dimensional electron density which in turn improves the carrier mobility (both ac and dc) values in the GaAs quantum wells thereby providing scope of getting higher speed devices in future.

Keywords: Carrier mobility, Delta doping, Hot carriers, Quantum wells.

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Authors: B.Singh, B.K.Nanda

Abstract:

Response surface methodology with Box–Benhken (BB) design of experiment approach has been utilized to study the mechanism of interface slip damping in layered and jointed tack welded beams with varying surface roughness. The design utilizes the initial amplitude of excitation, tack length and surface roughness at the interfaces to develop the model for the logarithmic damping decrement of the layered and jointed welded structures. Statistically designed experiments have been performed to estimate the coefficients in the mathematical model, predict the response, and check the adequacy of the model. Comparison of predicted and experimental response values outside the design conditions have shown good correspondence, implying that empirical model derived from response surface approach can be effectively used to describe the mechanism of interface slip damping in layered and jointed tack welded structures.

Keywords: Interface slip damping, welded joint, surface roughness, amplitude, tack length, response surface methodology.

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Authors: Joanna M. Dulińska, Maria Fabijańska

Abstract:

In the paper the results of calculations of the dynamic response of a multi-storey reinforced concrete building to a strong mining shock originated from the main region of mining activity in Poland (i.e. the Legnica-Glogow Copper District) are presented. The representative time histories of accelerations registered in three directions were used as ground motion data in calculations of the dynamic response of the structure. Two variants of a numerical model were applied: the model including only structural elements of the building and the model including both structural and non-structural elements (i.e. partition walls and ventilation ducts made of brick). It turned out that non-structural elements of multi-storey RC buildings have a small impact of about 10 % on natural frequencies of these structures. It was also proved that the dynamic response of building to mining shock obtained in case of inclusion of all non-structural elements in the numerical model is about 20 % smaller than in case of consideration of structural elements only. The principal stresses obtained in calculations of dynamic response of multi-storey building to strong mining shock are situated on the level of about 30% of values obtained from static analysis (dead load).

Keywords: Dynamic characteristics of buildings, mining shocks, dynamic response of buildings, non-structural elements

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Authors: M. M. Shokrieh, A. Karamnejad

Abstract:

This paper deals with a numerical analysis of the transient response of composite beams with strain rate dependent mechanical properties by use of a finite difference method. The equations of motion based on Timoshenko beam theory are derived. The geometric nonlinearity effects are taken into account with von Kármán large deflection theory. The finite difference method in conjunction with Newmark average acceleration method is applied to solve the differential equations. A modified progressive damage model which accounts for strain rate effects is developed based on the material property degradation rules and modified Hashin-type failure criteria and added to the finite difference model. The components of the model are implemented into a computer code in Mathematica 6. Glass/epoxy laminated composite beams with constant and strain rate dependent mechanical properties under dynamic load are analyzed. Effects of strain rate on dynamic response of the beam for various stacking sequences, load and boundary conditions are investigated.

Keywords: Composite beam, Finite difference method, Progressive damage modeling, Strain rate.

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Authors: Yanling Zhu

Abstract:

In this paper, a predator-prey model with Holling III type functional response is studied. It is interesting that the system is always uniformly persistent, which yields the existence of at least one positive periodic solutions for the corresponding periodic system. The result improves the corresponding ones in [11]. Moreover, an example is illustrated to verify the results by simulation.

Keywords: Predator-prey model, Uniformly persistence, Comparisontheorem, Holling III type functional response.

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Authors: A. Benyahia, M. Zergoug, M. Amir, M. Fodil

Abstract:

The main objective of this work is to enhance the Pulsed Eddy Current (PEC) response from the aluminum structure using signal processing. Cracks and metal loss in different structures cause changes in PEC response measurements. In this paper, time-frequency analysis is used to represent PEC response, which generates a large quantity of data and reduce the noise due to measurement. Power Spectral Density (PSD) after Wavelet Decomposition (PSD-WD) is proposed for defect detection. The experimental results demonstrate that the cracks in the surface can be extracted satisfactorily by the proposed methods. The validity of the proposed method is discussed.

Keywords: NDT, pulsed eddy current, continuous wavelet transform, Mexican hat wavelet mother, defect detection, power spectral density.

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Authors: Muhamad S., Norasrudin S, Rahmat A.

Abstract:

The objective of current study is to investigate the differences of winning and losing teams in terms of goal scoring and passing sequences. Total of 31 matches from UEFA-EURO 2012 were analyzed and 5 matches were excluded from analysis due to matches end up drawn. There are two groups of variable used in the study which is; i. the goal scoring variable and: ii. passing sequences variable. Data were analyzed using Wilcoxon matched pair rank test with significant value set at p < 0.05. Current study found the timing of goal scored was significantly higher for winning team at 1st half (Z=-3.416, p=.001) and 2nd half (Z=-3.252, p=.001). The scoring frequency was also found to be increase as time progressed and the last 15 minutes of the game was the time interval the most goals scored. The indicators that were significantly differences between winning and losing team were the goal scored (Z=-4.578, p=.000), the head (Z=-2.500, p=.012), the right foot (Z=-3.788,p=.000), corner (Z=-.2.126,p=.033), open play (Z=-3.744,p=.000), inside the penalty box (Z=-4.174, p=.000) , attackers (Z=-2.976, p=.003) and also the midfielders (Z=-3.400, p=.001). Regarding the passing sequences, there are significance difference between both teams in short passing sequences (Z=-.4.141, p=.000). While for the long passing, there were no significance difference (Z=-.1.795, p=.073). The data gathered in present study can be used by the coaches to construct detailed training program based on their objectives.

Keywords: Football, goals scored, passing, timing.

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Authors: H. O. Barbosa, A. C. R. da Silva, C. M. de Almeida, E. M. dos Santos, F. O. de Sousa, F. B. da S. Souza, F. B. da S. Souza, F. de O. Lima, L. H. Albuquerque, R. F. do Valle Cunha

Abstract:

Software development is intrinsic human-based knowledge-intensive. Due to globalization, software development has become a complex challenge and we usually face barriers related to knowledge management, team building, costly testing processes, especially in distributed settings. In this paper, we present the use of experimental studies to improve our knowledge management process using the Wiki system. According to the results, it was possible to identify learning preferences from our software projects leader team, organize and improve the learning experience of our Wiki, and facilitate collaboration by newcomers to improve Wiki with new contents available in the Wiki.

Keywords: Mobile products, knowledge management process, Wiki system, Global Software Development.

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Authors: Peter Antwi Buah, Yingbin Zhang, Jianxian He, Chenlin Xiang, Delali Atsu Y. Bakah

Abstract:

Near-fault ground motions with velocity pulses are considered to cause significant damage to structures or slopes compared to ordinary ground motions without velocity pulses. The double pulsed pulse-like ground motion is well known to be stronger than the single pulse. This research has numerically justified this perspective by studying the dynamic response of a homogeneous rock slope subjected to four pulse-like and two non-pulse-like ground motions using the Fast Lagrangian Analysis of Continua in 3 Dimensions (FLAC3D) software. Two of the pulse-like ground motions just have a single pulse. The results show that near-fault ground motions with velocity pulses can cause a higher dynamic response than regular ground motions. The amplification of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) in horizontal direction increases with the increase of the slope elevation. The seismic response of the slope under double pulse ground motion is stronger than that of the single pulse ground motion. The PGV amplification factor under the effect of the non-pulse-like records is also smaller than those under the pulse-like records. The velocity pulse strengthens the earthquake damage to the slope, which results in producing a stronger dynamic response.

Keywords: Velocity pulses, dynamic response, PGV magnification effect, elevation effect, double pulse.

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Authors: Kejun Zhuang, Zhaohui Wen

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with a nonautonomous three species food chain model with Crowley–Martin type functional response and time delay. Using the Mawhin-s continuation theorem in theory of degree, sufficient conditions for existence of periodic solutions are obtained.

Keywords: Periodic solutions, coincidence degree, food chain model, Crowley–Martin functional response.

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Authors: Nouredine Bourahla, Farid Bouriche, Yacine Benghalia

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Seismic qualification testing for equipments to be mounted on upper storeys of buildings is very demanding in terms of floor spectra. The latter is characterized by high accelerations amplitudes within a narrow frequency band. This article presents a method which permits to cover specified required response spectra beyond the shaking table capability by amplifying the acceleration amplitudes at an appropriate frequency range using a physical intermediate mounted on the platform of the shaker.

Keywords: floor spectra, response spectrum, seismicqualification testing, shaking table

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Authors: M. Mohebbi, K. Shakeri

Abstract:

The effect of different combinations of response feedback on the performance of active control system on nonlinear frames has been studied in this paper. To this end different feedback combinations including displacement, velocity, acceleration and full response feedback have been utilized in controlling the response of an eight story bilinear hysteretic frame which has been subjected to a white noise excitation and controlled by eight actuators which could fully control the frame. For active control of nonlinear frame Newmark nonlinear instantaneous optimal control algorithm has been used which a diagonal matrix has been selected for weighting matrices in performance index. For optimal design of active control system while the objective has been to reduce the maximum drift to below the yielding level, Distributed Genetic Algorithm (DGA) has been used to determine the proper set of weighting matrices. The criteria to assess the effect of each combination of response feedback have been the minimum required control force to reduce the maximum drift to below the yielding drift. The results of numerical simulation show that the performance of active control system is dependent on the type of response feedback where the velocity feedback is more effective in designing optimal control system in comparison with displacement and acceleration feedback. Also using full feedback of response in controller design leads to minimum control force amongst other combinations. Also the distributed genetic algorithm shows acceptable convergence speed in solving the optimization problem of designing active control systems.

Keywords: Active control, Distributed genetic algorithms, Response feedback, Weighting matrices.

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Authors: Jesus Orbe, Vicente Nunez-Anton

Abstract:

In this work we study the effect of several covariates X on a censored response variable T with unknown probability distribution. In this context, most of the studies in the literature can be located in two possible general classes of regression models: models that study the effect the covariates have on the hazard function; and models that study the effect the covariates have on the censored response variable. Proposals in this paper are in the second class of models and, more specifically, on least squares based model approach. Thus, using the bootstrap estimate of the bias, we try to improve the estimation of the regression parameters by reducing their bias, for small sample sizes. Simulation results presented in the paper show that, for reasonable sample sizes and censoring levels, the bias is always smaller for the new proposals.

Keywords: Censored response variable, regression, bias.

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Authors: Zhizhong Jiang, Peter Naudé, Craig Comstock

Abstract:

The productivity of software development is one of the major concerns for project managers. Given the increasing complexity of the software being developed and the concomitant rise in the typical project size, the productivity has not consistently improved. By analyzing the latest release of ISBSG data repository with 4106 projects ever developed, we report on the factors found to significantly influence productivity, and present an original model for the estimation of productivity during project design. We further illustrate that software development productivity has experienced irregular variations between the years 1995 and 2005. Considering the factors significant to productivity, we found its variations are primarily caused by the variations of average team size for the development and the unbalanced use of the less productive development language 3GL.

Keywords: Development Platform, Function Point, Language, Productivity, Software Engineering, Team Size.

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Authors: Mukesh Kumar Kirar, Ganga Agnihotri

Abstract:

This paper investigates the preliminary sizing of generator set to design electrical system at the early phase of a project, dynamic behavior of generator-unit, as well as induction motors, during start-up of the induction motor drives fed from emergency generator unit. The information in this paper simplifies generator set selection and eliminates common errors in selection. It covers load estimation, step loading capacity test, transient analysis for the emergency generator set. The dynamic behavior of the generator-unit, power, power factor, voltage, during Direct-on-Line start-up of the induction motor drives fed from stand alone gene-set is also discussed. It is important to ensure that plant generators operate safely and consistently, power system studies are required at the planning and conceptual design stage of the project. The most widely recognized and studied effect of motor starting is the voltage dip that is experienced throughout an industrial power system as the direct online result of starting large motors. Generator step loading capability and transient voltage dip during starting of largest motor is ensured with the help of Electrical Transient Analyzer Program (ETAP).

Keywords: Sizing, induction motor starting, load estimation, Transient Analyzer Program (ETAP).

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Authors: Sen-Yung Lee, Li-Kuo Chou, Chao-Kuang Chen

Abstract:

In this study, the problem of temperature transient response of a spiral fin, with its end insulated, is analyzed with base end subjected to a variation of fluid temperature. The hybrid method of Laplace transforms/Adomian decomposed method-Padé, is applied to the temperature transient response of the fin, the result of the temperature distribution and the heat flux at the base of the spiral fin are obtained, show a good agreement in the physical phenomenon.

Keywords: Laplace transforms/Adomian decomposed method- Padé, transient response, heat transfer.

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Authors: Marcos Devaner, Marcela Alves, Cledson Braga, Fabiano Alves, Wilton Bezerra

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This article discusses the inclusion of people with disabilities in the process of testing an accessible system solution for distance education. The accessible system, team profile, methodologies and techniques covered in the testing process are presented. The testing process shown in this paper was designed from the experience with user. The testing process emerged from lessons learned from past experiences and the end user is present at all stages of the tests. Also, lessons learned are reported and how it was possible the maturing of the team and the methods resulting in a simple, productive and effective process.

Keywords: Experience report, accessible systems, software testing, testing process, systems, e-learning.

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Authors: A. Kourou, A. Ioakeimidou, E. Bafa, C. Fassoulas, M. Panoutsopoulou

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The role of volunteers in disaster management is of decisive importance and the need of their involvement is well recognized, both for prevention measures and for disaster management. During major catastrophes, whereas professional personnel are outsourced, the role of volunteers is crucial. In Greece experience has shown that various groups operating in the civil protection mechanism like local administration staff or volunteers, in many cases do not have the necessary knowledge and information on best practices to act against natural disasters. One of the major problems is the lack of volunteers’ education and training. In the above given framework, this paper presents the results of a survey aimed to identify the level of education and preparedness of civil protection volunteers in Greece. Furthermore, the implementation of earthquake protection measures at individual, family and working level, are explored. More specifically, the survey questionnaire investigates issues regarding pre-earthquake protection actions, appropriate attitudes and behaviors during an earthquake and existence of contingency plans in the workplace. The questionnaires were administered to citizens from different regions of the country and who attend the civil protection training program: “Protect Myself and Others”. A closed-form questionnaire was developed for the survey, which contained questions regarding the following: a) knowledge of self-protective actions; b) existence of emergency planning at home; c) existence of emergency planning at workplace (hazard mitigation actions, evacuation plan, and performance of drills); and, d) respondents` perception about their level of earthquake preparedness. The results revealed a serious lack of knowledge and preparedness among respondents. Taking into consideration the aforementioned gap and in order to raise awareness and improve preparedness and effective response of volunteers acting in civil protection, the EVANDE project was submitted and approved by the European Commission (EC). The aim of that project is to educate and train civil protection volunteers on the most serious natural disasters, such as forest fires, floods, and earthquakes, and thus, increase their performance.

Keywords: Civil protection, earthquake preparedness, volunteers.

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Authors: Xianqing Liu, Shouming Zhong, Lijiang Xiang

Abstract:

In this paper, a stochastic predator-prey system with Bedding-DeAngelis functional response is studied. By constructing a suitable Lyapunov founction, sufficient conditions for species to be stochastically permanent is established. Meanwhile, we show that the species will become extinct with probability one if the noise is sufficiently large.

Keywords: Stochastically permanent, extinct, white noise, Bedding-DeAngelis functional response.

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Authors: D. Tedesco, G. Feletti, P. Trucco

Abstract:

The present study aims to develop a Decision Support System (DSS) to support operational decisions in Emergency Medical Service (EMS) systems regarding the assignment of medical emergency requests to Emergency Departments (ED). This problem is called “hospital selection” and concerns the definition of policies for the selection of the ED to which patients who require further treatment are transported by ambulance. The employed research methodology consists of a first phase of review of the technical-scientific literature concerning DSSs to support the EMS management and, in particular, the hospital selection decision. From the literature analysis, it emerged that current studies mainly focused on the EMS phases related to the ambulance service and consider a process that ends when the ambulance is available after completing a mission. Therefore, all the ED-related issues are excluded and considered as part of a separate process. Indeed, the most studied hospital selection policy turned out to be proximity, thus allowing to minimize the travelling time and to free-up the ambulance in the shortest possible time. The purpose of the present study consists in developing an optimization model for assigning medical emergency requests to the EDs also considering the expected time performance in the subsequent phases of the process, such as the case mix, the expected service throughput times, and the operational capacity of different EDs in hospitals. To this end, a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model was created to compare different hospital selection policies. The model was implemented with the AnyLogic software and finally validated on a realistic case. The hospital selection policy that returned the best results was the minimization of the Time To Provider (TTP), considered as the time from the beginning of the ambulance journey to the ED at the beginning of the clinical evaluation by the doctor. Finally, two approaches were further compared: a static approach, based on a retrospective estimation of the TTP, and a dynamic approach, focused on a predictive estimation of the TTP which is determined with a constantly updated Winters forecasting model. Findings reveal that considering the minimization of TTP is the best hospital selection policy. It allows to significantly reducing service throughput times in the ED with a negligible increase in travel time. Furthermore, an immediate view of the saturation state of the ED is produced and the case mix present in the ED structures (i.e., the different triage codes) is considered, as different severity codes correspond to different service throughput times. Besides, the use of a predictive approach is certainly more reliable in terms on TTP estimation, than a retrospective approach. These considerations can support decision-makers in introducing different hospital selection policies to enhance EMSs performance.

Keywords: Emergency medical services, hospital selection, discrete event simulation, forecast model.

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Authors: David Lindström

Abstract:

We evaluate the performance of a numerical method for global optimization of expensive functions. The method is using a response surface to guide the search for the global optimum. This metamodel could be based on radial basis functions, kriging, or a combination of different models. We discuss how to set the cyclic parameters of the optimization method to get a balance between local and global search. We also discuss the eventual problem with Runge oscillations in the response surface.

Keywords: Expensive function, infill sampling criterion, kriging, global optimization, response surface, Runge phenomenon.

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