Search results for: Scenario planning.

Authors: R. A. Temah, L. A. Nkengla-Asi

Abstract:

Planning for future disasters sets the stage for a variety of activities that may trigger multiple recurring operations and expose the community to opportunities to minimize risks. Local communities are increasingly embracing the necessity for planning based on local risks, but are also significantly challenged to effectively plan and response to disasters. This research examines basic risk-based disaster planning model and compares it with advanced risk-based planning that introduces the identification and alignment of varieties of local capabilities within and out of the local community that can be pivotal to facilitate the management of local risks and cascading effects prior to a disaster. A critical review shows that the identification and alignment of capabilities can potentially enhance risk-based disaster planning. A tailored holistic approach to risk based disaster planning is pivotal to enhance collective action and a reduction in disaster collective cost.

Keywords: Capabilities, disaster planning, hazards, local community, risk-based.

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Authors: Mohammad Ali Abdi, Sima Mehdizadegan Namin

Abstract:

Sustainable development is a concept which was originated in Burtland commission in 1978. Although this concept was born with environmental aspects, it is penetrated in all areas rapidly, turning into a dominate view of planning. Concentrating on future generation issue, especially when talking about heritage has a long story. Each approach with all of its characteristics illustrates differences in planning, hence planning always reflects the dominate idea of its age. This paper studies sustainable development in planning for historical cities with the aim of finding ways to deal with heritage in planning for historical cities in Iran. Through this, it will be illustrated how challenges between sustainable concept and heritage could be concluded in planning. Consequently, the paper will emphasize on: Sustainable development in city planning Trends regarding heritage Challenges due to planning for historical cities in Iran For the first two issues, documentary method regarding the sustainable development and heritage literature is considered. As the next step focusing on Iranian historical cities require considering the urban planning and management structure and identifying the main challenges related to heritage, so analyzing challenges regarding heritage is considered. As the result it would be illustrated that key issue in such planning is active conservation to improve and use the potential of heritage while it's continues conservation is guaranteed. By emphasizing on the planning system in Iran it will be obvious that some reforms are needed in this system and its way of relating with heritage. The main weakness in planning for historical cities in Iran is the lack of independent city management. Without this factor achieving active conservation as the main factor of sustainable development would not be possible.

Keywords: Active conservation, city planning, heritage, sustainable development.

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Authors: T. Mersmann, P. Nyhuis

Abstract:

In the current economic climate, for many businesses it is generally no longer sufficient to pursue exclusively economic interests. Instead, integrating ecological and social goals into the corporate targets is becoming ever more important. However, the holistic integration of these new goals is missing from current factory planning approaches. This article describes the conceptual framework for a planning methodology for sustainable factories. To this end, the description of the key areas for action is followed by a description of the principal components for the systematization of sustainability for factories and their stakeholders. Finally, a conceptual framework is presented which integrates the components formulated into an established factory planning procedure.

Keywords: Factory Planning, Stakeholder, Systematization, Sustainability.

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Authors: Osamu Saito

Abstract:

Commercial infrastructures intended for use as leisure retreats such as golf and ski resorts have been extensively developed in many rural areas of Japan. However, following the burst of the economic bubble in the 1990s, several existing resorts faced tough management decisions and some were forced to close their business. In this study, six alternative management options for restructuring the existing golf courses (park, cemetery, biofuel production, reforestation, pasturing and abandonment) are examined and their environmental and economic impacts are quantitatively assessed. In addition, restructuring scenarios of these options and an ex-ante assessment model are developed. The scenario analysis by Monte Carlo simulation shows a clear trade-off between GHG savings and benefit/cost (B/C) ratios, of which “Restoring Nature" scenario absorbs the most CO2 among the four scenarios considered, but its B/C ratio is the lowest. This study can be used to select or examine options and scenarios of golf course management and rural environmental management policies.

Keywords: golf courses, restructuring and management options, scenario analysis, Tokyo Metropolitan Area.

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Authors: Hyung-Jin Jang, Kwang-Bok Shin, Sung-Ho Han

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This paper describes the crashworthiness assessment and improvement of tlting train made of sandwich composites. The crashworhiness assessment of tilting train was conducted according to four collision scenarios of the Korean railway safety law. Collision analysis was carried out using explicit finite element analysis code LS-DYNA 3D. The finite element model consists of 3-D finite element model and 1-D equivalent model to save the finite element modeling and calculation time. It found that the crashworthiness analysis results were satisfied with the performance requirements except the crash scenario-2. In order to meet the crashworthiness requirements for crash scenario-2, the stiffness reinforcement for the laminate composite cover and metal frames of cabmask structure were proposed. Consequentially, it has satisfied the requirement for crash scenario-2.

Keywords: Crashworthiness, collision scenario, Korean railway safety law, sandwich composite, tilting train.

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Authors: Q. Han, W. Schaefer, N. Barry

Abstract:

To coop with urbanization issues and the economic need for expansion, the city of Jakarta is planning to reclaim more land in the Jakarta Bay. However, the reclamation activities of some islands have barely started and already the developers are facing difficulties in finding sufficient quantities of sand as fill material. When addressing the problem of sand scarcity in the case of Jakarta where, an excess of waste production, an inadequate solid waste management system and a lack of dumping ground pose a major problem, it is hard not to think of the use of waste as alternative fill material. This paper analyses the possibilities of using waste in the land reclamation projects, considering the governmental, social, environmental and economic context of the city. The results identify types of waste that could be used, ways of using those types of waste and implementation conditions for the city of Jakarta.

Keywords: Waste Management systems, Land reclamation, Multi Criteria Analysis, Scenario planning.

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Authors: Divya Agarwal, Pushpendra S. Bharti

Abstract:

Autonomous mobile robots (AMR) are expected as smart tools for operations in every automation industry. Path planning and obstacle avoidance is the backbone of AMR as robots have to reach their goal location avoiding obstacles while traversing through optimized path defined according to some criteria such as distance, time or energy. Path planning can be classified into global and local path planning where environmental information is known and unknown/partially known, respectively. A number of sensors are used for data collection. A number of algorithms such as artificial potential field (APF), rapidly exploring random trees (RRT), bidirectional RRT, Fuzzy approach, Purepursuit, A* algorithm, vector field histogram (VFH) and modified local path planning algorithm, etc. have been used in the last three decades for path planning and obstacle avoidance for AMR. This paper makes an attempt to review some of the path planning and obstacle avoidance algorithms used in the field of AMR. The review includes comparative analysis of simulation and mathematical computations of path planning and obstacle avoidance algorithms using MATLAB 2018a. From the review, it could be concluded that different algorithms may complete the same task (i.e. with a different set of instructions) in less or more time, space, effort, etc.

Keywords: Autonomous mobile robots, obstacle avoidance, path planning, and processing time.

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Authors: Chun-guang Pan, Ying-wu Chen

Abstract:

Risk response planning is of importance for software project risk management (SPRM). In CMMI, risk management was in the third capability maturity level, which provides a framework for software project risk identification, assessment, risk planning, risk control. However, the CMMI-based SPRM currently lacks quantitative supporting tools, especially during the process of implementing software project risk planning. In this paper, an economic optimization model for selecting risk reduction actions in the phase of software project risk response planning is presented. Furthermore, an example taken from a Chinese software industry is illustrated to verify the application of this method. The research provides a risk decision method for project risk managers that can be used in the implementation of CMMI-based SPRM.

Keywords: Software project, risk management, CMMI, riskresponse planning.

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Authors: Chung-Woon Park, Jungwoo Lee, Jong-Tae Lim

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In this paper, we propose a novel limited feedback scheme for task planning with service robots. Instead of sending the full service robot state information for the task planning, the proposed scheme send the best-M indices of service robots with a indicator. With the indicator, the proposed scheme significantly reduces the communication overhead for task planning as well as mitigates the system performance degradation in terms of the utility. In addition, we analyze the system performance of the proposed scheme and compare the proposed scheme with the other schemes.

Keywords: Task Planning, Service Robots, Limited Feedback, Scheduling

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Authors: Rajdeep Niyogi

Abstract:

The objective of the paper is twofold. First, to develop a formal framework for planning for mobile agents. A logical language based on a temporal logic is proposed that can express a type of tasks which often arise in network management. Second, to design a planning algorithm for such tasks. The aim of this paper is to study the importance of finding plans for mobile agents. Although there has been a lot of research in mobile agents, not much work has been done to incorporate planning ideas for such agents. This paper makes an attempt in this direction. A theoretical study of finding plans for mobile agents is undertaken. A planning algorithm (based on the paradigm of mobile computing) is proposed and its space, time, and communication complexity is analyzed. The algorithm is illustrated by working out an example in detail.

Keywords: Acting, computer network, mobile agent, mobile computing, planning, temporal logic.

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Authors: Yin-Yann Chen

Abstract:

As the gradual increase of the enterprise scale, the firms may possess many manufacturing plants located in different places geographically. This change will result in the multi-site production planning problems under the environment of multiple plants or production resources. Our research proposes the structural framework to analyze the multi-site planning problems. The analytical framework is composed of six elements: multi-site conceptual model, product structure (bill of manufacturing), production strategy, manufacturing capability and characteristics, production planning constraints, and key performance indicators. As well as the discussion of these six ingredients, we also review related literatures in this paper to match our analytical framework. Finally we take a real-world practical example of a TFT-LCD manufacturer in Taiwan to explain our proposed analytical framework for the multi-site production planning problems.

Keywords: Multi-Site, Production Planning, Supply Chain, TFT-LCD.

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Authors: R. Tandlich, S. Hoossein, K. A. Tagwira, M. M. Marais, T. A. Ludwig, R. P. Chidziva, M. N. Munodawafa, W. M. Wrench

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Response to the public health-related emergencies is analysed here for a rural university in South Africa. The structure of the designated emergency plan covers all the phases of the disaster management cycle. The plan contains elements of the vulnerability model and the technocratic model of emergency management. The response structures are vertically and horizontally integrated, while the planning contains elements of scenario-based and functional planning. The available number of medical professionals at the Rhodes University, along with the medical insurance rates, makes the staff and students potentially more medically vulnerable than the South African population. The main improvements of the emergency management are required in the tornado response and the information dissemination during health emergencies. The latter should involve the increased use of social media and e-mails, following the Taylor model of communication. Infrastructure must be improved in the telecommunication sector in the face of unpredictable electricity outages.

Keywords: Public health, Rural university, Taylor model of communication.

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Authors: Yudha Prambudia, Masaru Nakano

Abstract:

Due to rapid economic growth, Indonesia's energy needs is rapidly increasing. Indonesia-s primary energy consumption has doubled in 2007 compared to 2003. Indonesia's status change from oil net-exporter to oil net-importer country recently has increased Indonesia's concern over energy security. Due to this, oil import becomes center of attention in the dynamics of Indonesia's energy security. Conventional studies addressing Indonesia's energy security have focused on energy production sector. This study explores Indonesia-s energy security considering energy import sector by modeling and simulating Indonesia-s energy-related policies using system dynamics. Simulation result of Indonesia's energy security in 2020 in Business-As-Usual scenario shows that in term of supply demand ratio, energy security will be very high, but also it poses high dependence on energy import. The Alternative scenario result shows lower energy security in term of supply demand ratio and much lower dependence on energy import. It is also found that the Alternative scenario produce lower GDP growth.

Keywords: Energy security, modeling, simulation, system dynamics.

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Authors: Ya-Hui Lee, Chien-Hung Hsieh, Ching-Yi Lu

Abstract:

Demographic aging is the major problem that Taiwanese society is facing, and retirement life adaptation is the most concerning issue. In recent years, studies have suggested that in order to have successful aging and retirement planning, a view for the future is necessary. In Taiwan, civil servants receive better pensions and retirement benefits than do other industries. Therefore, their retirement preparation is considerably more significant than other senior groups in Taiwan. The purpose of this study is to understand the correlation of proactive coping and retirement planning of senior civil servants in Taiwan. The method is conducted by questionnaire surveys, with 342 valid questionnaires collected. The results of this study are: 1. The background variables of the interviewees, including age, perceived economic statuses, and retirement statuses, are all significantly related to their proactive coping and retirement planning. 2. Regarding age, the interviewees with ages 55 and above have better proactive coping and retirement planning than those with ages 45 and below. 3. In the aspect of perceived economic statuses, the participants who feel “very good” economic statuses have better proactive coping ability and retirement readiness than those who feel “bad” and “very bad”. 4. Retirees have better proactive coping and retirement planning than those who are still working. 5. Monthly income is significant in retirement planning only. The participants’ retirement planning would be better if they have higher incomes. Furthermore, the participants’ retirement planning would be better if their revenue were €1453~€1937, than if their revenue were below €968. 6. There are positive correlations between proactive coping and retirement planning. 7. Proactive coping can predict retirement planning. The result of this study will be provided as references to the Taiwan government for educational retirement planning policies.

Keywords: Civil servants, proactive coping, retirement planning.

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Authors: Abdel-Aziz M. Mohamed

Abstract:

This paper presents a state-of-the-art survey of the operations research models developed for internal audit planning. Two alternative approaches have been followed in the literature for audit planning: (1) identifying the optimal audit frequency; and (2) determining the optimal audit resource allocation. The first approach identifies the elapsed time between two successive audits, which can be presented as the optimal number of audits in a given planning horizon, or the optimal number of transactions after which an audit should be performed. It also includes the optimal audit schedule. The second approach determines the optimal allocation of audit frequency among all auditable units in the firm. In our review, we discuss both the deterministic and probabilistic models developed for audit planning. In addition, game theory models are reviewed to find the optimal auditing strategy based on the interactions between the auditors and the clients.

Keywords: Operations research applications, audit frequency, audit planning, audit-staff scheduling.

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Authors: L. Heidari, M. Jalili Ghazizade

Abstract:

This paper aims to determine the best environmental and economic scenario for Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management of the Maku city by using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. The functional elements of this study are collection, transportation, and disposal of MSW in Maku city. Waste composition and density, as two key parameters of MSW, have been determined by field sampling, and then, the other important specifications of MSW like chemical formula, thermal energy and water content were calculated. These data beside other information related to collection and disposal facilities are used as a reliable source of data to assess the environmental impacts of different waste management options, including landfills, composting, recycling and energy recovery. The environmental impact of MSW management options has been investigated in 15 different scenarios by Integrated Waste Management (IWM) software. The photochemical smog, greenhouse gases, acid gases, toxic emissions, and energy consumption of each scenario are measured. Then, the environmental indices of each scenario are specified by weighting these parameters. Economic costs of scenarios have been also compared with each other based on literature. As final result, since the organic materials make more than 80% of the waste, compost can be a suitable method. Although the major part of the remaining 20% of waste can be recycled, due to the high cost of necessary equipment, the landfill option has been suggested. Therefore, the scenario with 80% composting and 20% landfilling is selected as superior environmental and economic scenario. This study shows that, to select a scenario with practical applications, simultaneously environmental and economic aspects of different scenarios must be considered.

Keywords: IWM software, life cycle assessment, Maku, municipal solid waste management.

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Authors: Jincan Li, Mingyu Gao, Zhiwei He, Yuxiang Yang, Zhongfei Yu, Yuanyuan Liu

Abstract:

Building an appropriate motion model is crucial for trajectory planning of robots and determines the operational quality directly. An adaptive acceleration and deceleration motion planning based on trigonometric functions for the end-effector of 6-DOF robots in Cartesian coordinate system is proposed in this paper. This method not only achieves the smooth translation motion and rotation motion by constructing a continuous jerk model, but also automatically adjusts the parameters of trigonometric functions according to the variable inputs and the kinematic constraints. The results of computer simulation show that this method is correct and effective to achieve the adaptive motion planning for linear trajectories.

Keywords: 6-DOF robots, motion planning, trigonometric function, kinematic constraints

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Authors: Asmaa Benbaba

Abstract:

This paper aims to reconsider relationships between animal feeding operations (CAFOs) and planning. It stresses the idea of the necessity for a methodological revolution in order to increase the chances for dialogue between different actors and various planning agencies and create possibilities to manage conflicts. The explored case of North Carolina shows limitations in environmental agencies’ actions and methods. It also calls for a more integrated approach among agencies including the local agencies.

Keywords: (CAFOs), North Carolina, Planning, United States.

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Authors: Steffen C. Eickemeyer, Tim Borcherding, Peter Nyhuis, Hannover

Abstract:

Planning capacities when regenerating complex investment goods involves particular challenges in that the planning is subject to a large degree of uncertainty regarding load information. Using information fusion – by applying Bayesian Networks – a method is being developed for forecasting the anticipated expenditures (human labor, tool and machinery utilization, time etc.) for regenerating a good. The generated forecasts then later serve as a tool for planning capacities and ensure a greater stability in the planning processes.

Keywords: Bayesian networks, capacity planning, complex investment goods, damages library, forecasting, information fusion, regeneration.

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Authors: S. Homrossukon, D. Aromstain

Abstract:

The simple methods used to plan and measure non patterned production system are developed from the basic definition of working efficiency. Processing time is assigned as the variable and used to write the equation of production efficiency. Consequently, such equation is extensively used to develop the planning method for production of interest using one-dimensional stock cutting problem. The application of the developed method shows that production efficiency and production planning can be determined effectively.

Keywords: Production Planning, Parallel Machine, Production Measurement, Cutting and Packing.

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Authors: E.J. Cilliers

Abstract:

Green- spaces might be very attractive, but where are the economic benefits? What value do nature and landscape have for us? What difference will it make to jobs, health and the economic strength of areas struggling with deprivation and social problems? [1].There is a need to consider green spaces from a different perspective. Green planning is not just about flora and fauna, but also about planning for economic benefits [2]. It is worth trying to quantify the value of green spaces since nature and landscape are crucially important to our quality of life and sustainable development. The reality, however, is that urban development often takes place at the expense of green spaces. Urbanization is an ongoing process throughout the world; however, hyper-urbanization without environmental planning is destructive, not constructive [3]. Urban spaces are believed to be more valuable than other land uses, particular green areas, simply because of the market value connected to urban spaces. However, attractive landscapes can help raise the quality and value of the urban market even more. In order to reach these objectives of integrated planning, the Green-Value-Gap needs to be bridged. Economists have to understand the concept of Green-Planning and the spinoffs, and Environmentalists have to understand the importance of urban economic development and the benefits thereof to green planning. An interface between Environmental Management, Economic Development and sustainable Spatial Planning are needed to bridge the Green-Value-Gap.

Keywords: Spatial Planning, Environmental Management, Green-Value-Gap, Compensation, Participation.

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Authors: Chun-Yao Lee, Yi-Xing Shen

Abstract:

This paper presents an application of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to the grounding grid planning which compares to the application of genetic algorithm (GA). Firstly, based on IEEE Std.80, the cost function of the grounding grid and the constraints of ground potential rise, step voltage and touch voltage are constructed for formulating the optimization problem of grounding grid planning. Secondly, GA and PSO algorithms for obtaining optimal solution of grounding grid are developed. Finally, a case of grounding grid planning is shown the superiority and availability of the PSO algorithm and proposal planning results of grounding grid in cost and computational time.

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, particle swarm optimization, grounding grid.

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Authors: S. Minhas, C. Juzek, U. Berger

Abstract:

The planning in manufacturing system is becoming complicated day by day due to the expanding networks and shortage of skilled people to manage change. Consequently, faster lead time and rising demands for eco-efficient evaluation of manufacturing products and processes need exploitation of new and intelligent knowledge management concepts for manufacturing planning. This paper highlights motivation for incorporation of new features in the manufacturing planning system. Furthermore, it elaborates requirements for the development of intelligent knowledge management concept to support planning related decisions. Afterwards, the derived concept is presented in this paper considering two case studies. The first case study is concerned with the automotive ramp-up planning. The second case study specifies requirements for knowledge management system to support decisions in eco-efficient evaluation of manufacturing products and processes

Keywords: Ramp-up, Environmental impact, Knowledge management.

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Authors: Han Yu, Dan C. Marinescu, Annie S. Wu, Howard Jay Siegel

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In this paper, we introduce an effective strategy for subgoal division and ordering based upon recursive subgoals and combine this strategy with a genetic-based planning approach. This strategy can be applied to domains with conjunctive goals. The main idea is to recursively decompose a goal into a set of serializable subgoals and to specify a strict ordering among the subgoals. Empirical results show that the recursive subgoal strategy reduces the size of the search space and improves the quality of solutions to planning problems.

Keywords: Planning, recursive subgoals, Sliding-tile puzzle, subgoal interaction, genetic algorithms.

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Authors: Achim Kampker, Peter Burggräf, Moritz Krunke, Hanno Voet

Abstract:

As a reaction to current challenges in factory planning, many companies think about introducing factory standards to lower planning times and decrease planning costs. If these factory standards are set-up with a high level of modularity, they are defined as modular factory systems. This paper deals with the main current problems in the application of modular factory systems in practice and presents a solution approach with its basic models. The methodology is based on methods from factory planning but also uses the tools of other disciplines like product development or technology management to deal with the high complexity, which the development of modular factory systems implies. The four basic models that such a methodology has to contain are introduced and pointed out.

Keywords: Factory planning, modular factory systems, factory standards, cost-benefit analysis.

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Authors: G. Lingam, N. Lingam, K. Raghuwaiya

Abstract:

In Fiji, notable among the recent spate of educational reforms has been the Ministry of Education’s (MoEs) requirement that all schools undertake a process of school strategic planning. This preliminary study explores perceptions of a sample of Fijian teachers on the way this exercise has been conducted in their schools. The analysis of both quantitative and qualitative data indicates that school leaders’ lack of knowledge and skills in school strategic planning is a major limitation. As an unsurprising consequence, the process(es) schools adopted did not conform to what the literature suggests as best planning practices. School leaders need more training to ensure they are better prepared to carry out this strategic planning effectively, especially in widening the opportunities for all who have a stake in education to contribute to the process. Implications of the findings are likely to be pertinent to other developing contexts within and beyond the Pacific region for the training of school leaders to ensure they are better equipped to orchestrate and benefit from educational reforms thrust upon them.

Keywords: School Strategic Planning, educational reforms.

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Authors: H. Siswoyo Jo, N. Mir-Nasiri, E. Jayamani

Abstract:

This paper presents a new type of mechanism and trajectory planning strategy for bipedal walking robot. The newly designed mechanism is able to improve the performance of bipedal walking robot in terms of energy efficiency and weight reduction by utilizing minimum number of actuators. The usage of parallelogram mechanism eliminates the needs of having an extra actuator at the knee joint. This mechanism works together with the joint space trajectory planning in order to realize straight legged walking which cannot be achieved by conventional inverse kinematics trajectory planning due to the singularity. The effectiveness of the proposed strategy is confirmed by computer simulation results.

Keywords: Bipedal robot, Energy efficiency, Straight legged walking, Trajectory planning.

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Authors: Omar D. Mohammed, Matti Rantatalo, Uday Kumar

Abstract:

In this paper an analytical crack propagation scenario is proposed which assumes that a crack propagates in the tooth root in both the crack depth direction and the tooth width direction, and which is more reasonable and realistic for non-uniform load distribution cases than the other presented scenarios. An analytical approach is used for quantifying the loss of time-varying gear mesh stiffness with the presence of crack propagation in the gear tooth root. The proposed crack propagation scenario can be applied for crack propagation modelling and monitoring simulation, but further research is required for comparison and evaluation of all the presented crack propagation scenarios from the condition monitoring point of view.

Keywords: Crack propagation, Gear tooth crack, Time varying gear mesh stiffness.

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Authors: Heeyeul Kwon, Yongtae Park

Abstract:

Despite the highly touted benefits, emerging technologies have unleashed pervasive concerns regarding unintended and unforeseen social impacts. Thus, those wishing to create safe and socially acceptable products need to identify such side effects and mitigate them prior to the market proliferation. Various methodologies in the field of technology assessment (TA), namely Delphi, impact assessment, and scenario planning, have been widely incorporated in such a circumstance. However, literatures face a major limitation in terms of sole reliance on participatory workshop activities. They unfortunately missed out the availability of a massive untapped data source of futuristic information flooding through the Internet. This research thus seeks to gain insights into utilization of futuristic data, future-oriented documents from the Internet, as a supplementary method to generate social impact scenarios whilst capturing perspectives of experts from a wide variety of disciplines. To this end, network analysis is conducted based on the social keywords extracted from the futuristic documents by text mining, which is then used as a guide to produce a comprehensive set of detailed scenarios. Our proposed approach facilitates harmonized depictions of possible hazardous consequences of emerging technologies and thereby makes decision makers more aware of, and responsive to, broad qualitative uncertainties.

Keywords: Emerging technologies, futuristic data, scenario, text mining.

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Authors: J. Vilgerts, L. Timma, D. Blumberga

Abstract:

The objective of the paper is to develop the forecast model for the HW flows. The methodology of the research included 6 modules: historical data, assumptions, choose of indicators, data processing, and data analysis with STATGRAPHICS, and forecast models. The proposed methodology was validated for the case study for Latvia. Hypothesis on the changes in HW for time period of 2010-2020 have been developed and mathematically described with confidence level of 95.0% and 50.0%. Sensitivity analysis for the analyzed scenarios was done. The results show that the growth of GDP affects the total amount of HW in the country. The total amount of the HW is projected to be within the corridor of – 27.7% in the optimistic scenario up to +87.8% in the pessimistic scenario with confidence level of 50.0% for period of 2010-2020. The optimistic scenario has shown to be the least flexible to the changes in the GDP growth.

Keywords: Forecast models, hazardous waste management, sustainable development, waste management indicators.

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