Search results for: Psychosocial risks
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 382

Search results for: Psychosocial risks

142 Credit Risk Management and Analysis in an Iranian Bank

Authors: Isa Nakhai Kamal Abadi, Esmaeel Saberi, Ehsan Mirjafari

Abstract:

While financial institutions have faced difficulties over the years for a multitude of reasons, the major cause of serious banking problems continues to be directly related to lax credit standards for borrowers and counterparties, poor portfolio risk management, or a lack of attention to changes in economic or other circumstances that can lead to a deterioration in the credit standing of a bank's counterparties. Credit risk is most simply defined as the potential that a bank borrower or counterparty will fail to meet its obligations in accordance with agreed terms. The goal of credit risk management is to maximize a bank's risk-adjusted rate of return by maintaining credit risk exposure within acceptable parameters. Banks need to manage the credit risk inherent in the entire portfolio as well as the risk in individual credits or transactions. Banks should also consider the relationships between credit risk and other risks. The effective management of credit risk is a critical component of a comprehensive approach to risk management and essential to the long-term success of any banking organization. In this research we also study the relationship between credit risk indices and borrower-s timely payback in Karafarin bank.

Keywords: Financial Ratios; Spearman Test; Bank OperationsRisk

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141 Discrepant Views of Social Competence and Links with Social Phobia

Authors: Pamela-Zoe Topalli, Niina Junttila, Päivi M. Niemi, Klaus Ranta

Abstract:

Adolescents’ biased perceptions about their social competence (SC), whether negatively or positively, serve to influence their socioemotional adjustment such as early feelings of social phobia (nowadays referred to as Social Anxiety Disorder-SAD). Despite the importance of biased self-perceptions in adolescents’ psychosocial adjustment, the extent to which discrepancies between self- and others’ evaluations of one’s SC are linked to social phobic symptoms remains unclear in the literature. This study examined the perceptual discrepancy profiles between self- and peers’ as well as between self- and teachers’ evaluations of adolescents’ SC and the interrelations of these profiles with self-reported social phobic symptoms. The participants were 390 3rd graders (15 years old) of Finnish lower secondary school (50.8% boys, 49.2% girls). In contrast with variable-centered approaches that have mainly been used by previous studies when focusing on this subject, this study used latent profile analysis (LPA), a person-centered approach which can provide information regarding risk profiles by capturing the heterogeneity within a population and classifying individuals into groups. LPA revealed the following five classes of discrepancy profiles: i) extremely negatively biased perceptions of SC, ii) negatively biased perceptions of SC, iii) quite realistic perceptions of SC, iv) positively biased perceptions of SC, and v) extremely positively biased perceptions of SC. Adolescents with extremely negatively biased perceptions and negatively biased perceptions of their own SC reported the highest number of social phobic symptoms. Adolescents with quite realistic, positively biased and extremely positively biased perceptions reported the lowest number of socio-phobic symptoms. The results point out the negatively and the extremely negatively biased perceptions as possible contributors to social phobic symptoms. Moreover, the association of quite realistic perceptions with low number of social phobic symptoms indicates its potential protective power against social phobia. Finally, positively and extremely positively biased perceptions of SC are negatively associated with social phobic symptoms in this study. However, the profile of extremely positively biased perceptions might be linked as well with the existence of externalizing problems such as antisocial behavior (e.g. disruptive impulsivity). The current findings highlight the importance of considering discrepancies between self- and others’ perceptions of one’s SC in clinical and research efforts. Interventions designed to prevent or moderate social phobic symptoms need to take into account individual needs rather than aiming for uniform treatment. Implications and future directions are discussed.

Keywords: Adolescence, latent profile analysis, perceptual discrepancies, social competence, social phobia.

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140 Iterative Image Reconstruction for Sparse-View Computed Tomography via Total Variation Regularization and Dictionary Learning

Authors: XianYu Zhao, JinXu Guo

Abstract:

Recently, low-dose computed tomography (CT) has become highly desirable due to increasing attention to the potential risks of excessive radiation. For low-dose CT imaging, ensuring image quality while reducing radiation dose is a major challenge. To facilitate low-dose CT imaging, we propose an improved statistical iterative reconstruction scheme based on the Penalized Weighted Least Squares (PWLS) standard combined with total variation (TV) minimization and sparse dictionary learning (DL) to improve reconstruction performance. We call this method "PWLS-TV-DL". In order to evaluate the PWLS-TV-DL method, we performed experiments on digital phantoms and physical phantoms, respectively. The experimental results show that our method is in image quality and calculation. The efficiency is superior to other methods, which confirms the potential of its low-dose CT imaging.

Keywords: Low dose computed tomography, penalized weighted least squares, total variation, dictionary learning.

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139 Neural Network Based Approach of Software Maintenance Prediction for Laboratory Information System

Authors: Vuk M. Popovic, Dunja D. Popovic

Abstract:

Software maintenance phase is started once a software project has been developed and delivered. After that, any modification to it corresponds to maintenance. Software maintenance involves modifications to keep a software project usable in a changed or a changing environment, to correct discovered faults, and modifications, and to improve performance or maintainability. Software maintenance and management of software maintenance are recognized as two most important and most expensive processes in a life of a software product. This research is basing the prediction of maintenance, on risks and time evaluation, and using them as data sets for working with neural networks. The aim of this paper is to provide support to project maintenance managers. They will be able to pass the issues planned for the next software-service-patch to the experts, for risk and working time evaluation, and afterward to put all data to neural networks in order to get software maintenance prediction. This process will lead to the more accurate prediction of the working hours needed for the software-service-patch, which will eventually lead to better planning of budget for the software maintenance projects.

Keywords: Laboratory information system, maintenance engineering, neural networks, software maintenance, software maintenance costs.

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138 Development of a Multi-Factorial Instrument for Accident Analysis Based on Systemic Methods

Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

Abstract:

The present research is built on three major pillars, commencing by making some considerations on accident investigation methods and pointing out both defining aspects and differences between linear and non-linear analysis. The traditional linear focus on accident analysis describes accidents as a sequence of events, while the latest systemic models outline interdependencies between different factors and define the processes evolution related to a specific (normal) situation. Linear and non-linear accident analysis methods have specific limitations, so the second point of interest is mirrored by the aim to discover the drawbacks of systemic models which becomes a starting point for developing new directions to identify risks or data closer to the cause of incidents/accidents. Since communication represents a critical issue in the interaction of human factor and has been proved to be the answer of the problems made by possible breakdowns in different communication procedures, from this focus point, on the third pylon a new error-modeling instrument suitable for risk assessment/accident analysis will be elaborated.

Keywords: Accident analysis, multi-factorial error modeling, risk, systemic methods.

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137 Annoyance Caused by Air Pollution: A Comparative Study of Two Industrialized Regions

Authors: Milena M. Melo, Jane M. Santos, Severine Frere, Valderio A. Reisen, Neyval C. Reis Jr., Maria de Fátima S. Leite

Abstract:

Although there had been a many studies that shows the impact of air pollution on physical health, comparatively less was known of human behavioral responses and annoyance impacts. Annoyance caused by air pollution is a public health problem because it can be an ambient stressor causing stress and disease and can affect quality of life. The objective of this work is to evaluate the annoyance caused by air pollution in two different industrialized urban areas, Dunkirk (France) and Vitoria (Brazil). The populations of these cities often report feeling annoyed by dust. Surveys were conducted, and the collected data were analyzed using statistical analyses. The results show that sociodemographic variables, importance of air quality, perceived industrial risk, perceived air pollution and occurrence of health problems play important roles in the perceived annoyance. These results show the existence of a common problem in geographically distant areas and allow stakeholders to develop prevention strategies.

Keywords: Air pollution, annoyance, industrial risks, perception of pollution, public health, settled dust.

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136 Emergency Health Management and Student Hygiene at a South African University

Authors: Kudzai Ashley Tagwira, Michelle Marle Marais, Tracy Anne Ludwig, Rutendo Precious Chidziva, Mavis Nyaradzo Munodawafa, Wendy M. Wrench, Roman Tandlich

Abstract:

Risk of infectious disease outbreaks is related to the hygiene among the population. To assess the actual risks and modify the relevant emergency procedures if necessary, a hygiene survey was conducted among undergraduate students on the Rhodes University campus. Soap was available to 10.5% and only 26.8% of the study participants followed proper hygiene in relation to food consumption. This combination increases the risk of infectious disease outbreaks at the campus. Around 83.6% were willing to wash their hands if soap was provided. Procurement and availability of soap in undergraduate residences on campus should be improved, as the total cost is estimated at only 2000 USD per annum. Awareness campaigns about food-related hygiene and the need for regular handwashing with soap should be run among Rhodes University students. If successful, rates of respiratory and hygiene-related diseases will be decreased and emergency health management simplified.

Keywords: Awareness, Food hygiene, Infectious disease spread, Undergraduate students.

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135 Radical Technological Innovation–Comparison of a Critical Success Factors Framework with Existing Literature

Authors: Florian Wohlfeil, Orestis Terzidis, Louisa Hellmann

Abstract:

Radical technological innovations enable companies to reach strong market positions and are thus desirable. On the other hand, the innovation process is related to significant costs and risks. Hence, the knowledge of the factors that influence success is crucial for technology driven companies. Taking a previously developed framework of Critical Success Factors for radical technological innovations as a reference model, we conducted a structured and focused literature review of eleven standard books within the field of technology and innovation management. With this approach we aim to evaluate, expand, and clarify the set of Critical Success Factors detailed in this framework. Overall, the set of factors and their allocation to the main categories of the framework could be confirmed. However, the factor organizational home is not emphasized and discussed in most of the reviewed literature. On the other hand, an additional factor that has not been part of the framework is described to be important – strategy fit. Furthermore, the factors strategic alliances and platform strategy appear in the literature but in a different context compared to the reference model.

Keywords: Critical success factors, radical technological innovation, TOMP framework, innovation process.

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134 Protection of Cultural Heritage against the Effects of Climate Change Using Autonomous Aerial Systems Combined with Automated Decision Support

Authors: Artur Krukowski, Emmanouela Vogiatzaki

Abstract:

The article presents an ongoing work in research projects such as SCAN4RECO or ARCH, both funded by the European Commission under Horizon 2020 program. The former one concerns multimodal and multispectral scanning of Cultural Heritage assets for their digitization and conservation via spatiotemporal reconstruction and 3D printing, while the latter one aims to better preserve areas of cultural heritage from hazards and risks. It co-creates tools that would help pilot cities to save cultural heritage from the effects of climate change. It develops a disaster risk management framework for assessing and improving the resilience of historic areas to climate change and natural hazards. Tools and methodologies are designed for local authorities and practitioners, urban population, as well as national and international expert communities, aiding authorities in knowledge-aware decision making. In this article we focus on 3D modelling of object geometry using primarily photogrammetric methods to achieve very high model accuracy using consumer types of devices, attractive both to professions and hobbyists alike.

Keywords: 3D modeling, UAS, cultural heritage, preservation.

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133 Debt Reconstruction, Career Development and Famers Household Well-Being in Thailand

Authors: Yothin Sawangdee, Piyawat Katewongsa, Chutima Yousomboon, Kornkanok Pongpradit, Sakapas Saengchai, Phusit Khantikul

Abstract:

Debts reconstruction under some of moratorium projects is one of important method that highly benefits to both the Banks and farmers. The method can reduce probabilities for nonprofits loan. This paper discuss about debts reconstruction and career development training for farmers in Thailand between 2011 and 2013. The research designed is mix-method between quantitative survey and qualitative survey. Sample size for quantitative method is 1003 cases. Data gathering procedure is between October and December 2013. Main results affirmed that debts reconstruction is needed. And there are numerous benefits from farmers’ career development training. Many of farmers who attend field school activities able to bring knowledge learned to apply for the farms’ work. They can reduce production costs. Framers’ quality of life and their household well-being also improve. This program should apply in any countries where farmers have highly debts and highly risks for not return the debts.

Keywords: Career development, debts reconstruction, farmers household well-being, Thailand.

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132 The Effects of Cross-Border Use of Drones in Nigerian National Security

Authors: H. P. Kerry

Abstract:

Drone technology has become a significant discourse in a nation’s national security, while this technology could constitute a danger to national security on the one hand, on the other hand, it is used in developed and developing countries for border security, and in some cases, for protection of security agents and migrants. In the case of Nigeria, drones are used by the military to monitor and tighten security around the borders. However, terrorist groups have devised a means to utilize the technology to their advantage. Therefore, the potential danger in the widespread proliferation of this technology has become a myriad of risks. The research on the effects of cross-border use of drones in Nigerian national security looks at the negative and positive consequences of using drone technology. The study employs the use of interviews and relevant documents to obtain data while the study applied the Just War theory to justify the reason why countries use force; it further buttresses the points with what the realist theory thinks about the use of force. In conclusion, the paper recommends that the Nigerian government through the National Assembly should pass a bill for the establishment of a law that will guide the use of armed and unarmed drones in Nigeria enforced by the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority and the office of the National Security Adviser.

Keywords: Armed drones, cross-border, drones, national security.

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131 Hazards Assessment of Radon Exhalation Rate and Radium Content in the Soil Samples in Iraqi Kurdistan Using Passive and Active Detecting Methods

Authors: Asaad H. Ismail, Mohamad S. Jaafar

Abstract:

This study aims to assess the environmental hazards from radon exhalation rate in the soil samples in selected locations in Iraqi Kurdistan, using passive (CR-39NTDs) and active (RAD7) detecting method. Radon concentration, effective radium content and radon exhalation rate were estimated in soil samples that collected at the depth level of 30 cm inside 124 houses. The results show that the emanation rate for radon gas was variation from location to other, depending on the geological formation. Most health risks come from emanation of radon and its daughter due to its contribution for indoor radon, so the results showed that there is a linear relationship between the ratio of soil and indoor radon concentration (CSoil Rn222/ Cindoor Rn222) and the effective radium content in soil samples. The results show that radon concentration has high and low values in Hajyawa city and Er. Tyrawa Qr, respectively. A comparison between our results with that mentioned in international reports was done.

Keywords: Radon, CR-39NTDs, RAD7, Soil, Iraqi Kurdistan.

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130 Seasonal Prevalence of Aedes aegypti and Ae.albopictus in Three Topographical Areas of Southern Thailand

Authors: W. Preechaporn, M. Jaroensutasinee, K. Jaroensutasinee

Abstract:

This study investigated the seasonal prevalence of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus larvae in three topographical areas (i.e. mangrove, rice paddy and mountainous areas). Samples were collected from 300 households in both wet and dry seasons in nine districts in Nakhon Si Thammarat province. Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were found in 21 out of 29 types of water containers in mangrove, rice paddy and mountainous areas. Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus laid eggs in different container types depending on season and topographical areas. Ae. aegypti larvae were found most in metal box in mangrove and mountainous areas in wet season. Ae. albopictus larvae were also found most in metal box in mangrove and mountainous areas in both wet and dry seasons. All Ae. albopictus larval indices were higher than Ae. aegypti larval indices in all three topographical areas and both seasons. HI and BI did not differ in three topographical areas but differed between Aedes sp. HI for both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in all three topographical areas in both seasons were greater than 10 %, except Aedes aegypti in rice paddy area in wet season. This indicated high risks of DHF transmission in these areas.

Keywords: Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus, Season, Topography.

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129 Need of National Space Legislation for Space Faring Nations

Authors: Muhammad Naveed, Yang Caixia

Abstract:

The need for national space legislation is pivotal, particularly in light of the fact that in recent years space activities have grown immensely both in volume and diversity. Countries are progressively developing capabilities in space exploration and scientific discoveries, market their capabilities to manufacture satellites, provide launch services from their facilities and are looking to privatize and commercialize their space resources. Today, nations are also seeking to comprehend the technological and financial potential of the private sector and are considering to share their financial burdens with them and to limit their exposures to risks, but they are lagging behind in legal framework in this regard. In the perspective of these emerging developments, it is therefore, felt that national space legislation should be enacted with the goal of building and implementing a vibrant and transparent legal framework at the national level to hasten investments and to ensure growth in this capital intensive - highly yield strategic sector. This study looks at (I) the international legal framework that governs space activities; (II) motivation behind making national space laws; and (III) the need for national space legislation. The paper concludes with some recommendations with regards to the conceivable future direction for national space legislation, in particular space empowered sub-areas for countries.

Keywords: International conventions, national legislation, space faring nation, space law.

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128 Frames about Nanotechnology Agenda in Turkish Media, 2005-2009

Authors: Ebru Belkıs Kamanlıoğlu, Cem Güzeloğlu

Abstract:

As the new industrial revolution advances in the nanotechnology have been followed with interest throughout the world and also in Turkey. Media has an important role in conveying these advances to public, rising public awareness and creating attitudes related to nanotechnology. As well as representing how a subject is treated, media frames determine how public think about this subject. In literature definite frames related to nanoscience and nanotechnology such as process, regulation, conflict and risks were mentioned in studies focusing different countries. So how nanotechnology news is treated by which frames and in which news categories in Turkey as a one of developing countries? In this study examining different variables about nanotechnology that affect public attitudes such as category, frame, story tone, source in Turkish media via framing analysis developed in agenda setting studies was aimed. In the analysis data between 2005 and 2009 obtained from the first five national newspapers with wide circulation in Turkey will be used. In this study the direction of the media about nanotechnology, in which frames nanotechnologic advances brought to agenda were reported as news, and sectoral, legal, economic and social scenes reflected by these frames to public related to nanotechnology in Turkey were planned.

Keywords: Agenda, frames, media, nanotechnology, Turkey.

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127 Application of Data Mining Tools to Predicate Completion Time of a Project

Authors: Seyed Hossein Iranmanesh, Zahra Mokhtari

Abstract:

Estimation time and cost of work completion in a project and follow up them during execution are contributors to success or fail of a project, and is very important for project management team. Delivering on time and within budgeted cost needs to well managing and controlling the projects. To dealing with complex task of controlling and modifying the baseline project schedule during execution, earned value management systems have been set up and widely used to measure and communicate the real physical progress of a project. But it often fails to predict the total duration of the project. In this paper data mining techniques is used predicting the total project duration in term of Time Estimate At Completion-EAC (t). For this purpose, we have used a project with 90 activities, it has updated day by day. Then, it is used regular indexes in literature and applied Earned Duration Method to calculate time estimate at completion and set these as input data for prediction and specifying the major parameters among them using Clem software. By using data mining, the effective parameters on EAC and the relationship between them could be extracted and it is very useful to manage a project with minimum delay risks. As we state, this could be a simple, safe and applicable method in prediction the completion time of a project during execution.

Keywords: Data Mining Techniques, Earned Duration Method, Earned Value, Estimate At Completion.

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126 Research on Rail Safety Security System

Authors: Cai Guoqiang, Jia Limin, Zhou Liming, Liang yu, Li xi

Abstract:

This paper analysis the integrated use of safety monitoring with the domestic and international latest research on rail safety protection system, and focus on the implementation of an organic whole system, with the monitoring and early warning, risk assessment, predictive control and emergency rescue system. The system framework, contents and system structure of Security system is proposed completely. It-s pointed out that the Security system is a negative feedback system composed of by safety monitoring and warning system, risk assessment and emergency rescue system. Safety monitoring and warning system focus on the monitoring target monitoring, early warning, tracking, integration of decision-making, for objective and subjective risks factors. Risk assessment system analysis the occurrence of a major Security risk mechanism, determines the standard of the future short, medium and long term safety conditions, and give prop for development of safety indicators, accident analysis and safety standards. Emergency rescue system is with the goal of rapid and effective rescue work for accident, to minimize casualties and property losses.

Keywords: rail safety protection, monitoring and early warning, risk assessment, emergency rescue.

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125 Performance Evaluation of Minimum Quantity Lubrication on EN3 Mild Steel Turning

Authors: Swapnil Rajan Jadhav, Ajay Vasantrao Kashikar

Abstract:

Lubrication, cooling and chip removal are the desired functions of any cutting fluid. Conventional or flood lubrication requires high volume flow rate and cost associated with this is higher. In addition, flood lubrication possesses health risks to machine operator. To avoid these consequences, dry machining and minimum quantity are two alternatives. Dry machining cannot be a suited alternative as it can generate greater heat and poor surface finish. Here, turning work is carried out on a Lathe machine using EN3 Mild steel. Variable cutting speeds and depth of cuts are provided and corresponding temperatures and surface roughness values were recorded. Experimental results are analyzed by Minitab software. Regression analysis, main effect plot, and interaction plot conclusion are drawn by using ANOVA. There is a 95.83% reduction in the use of cutting fluid. MQL gives a 9.88% reduction in tool temperature, this will improve tool life. MQL produced a 17.64% improved surface finish. MQL appears to be an economical and environmentally compatible lubrication technique for sustainable manufacturing.

Keywords: ANOVA, MQL, regression analysis, surface roughness

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124 Performance Evaluation of Minimum Quantity Lubrication on EN3 Mild Steel Turning

Authors: Swapnil Rajan Jadhav, Ajay Vasantrao Kashikar

Abstract:

Lubrication, cooling and chip removal are the desired functions of any cutting fluid. Conventional or flood lubrication requires high volume flow rate and cost associated with this is higher. In addition, flood lubrication possesses health risks to machine operator. To avoid these consequences, dry machining and minimum quantity are two alternatives. Dry machining cannot be a suited alternative as it can generate greater heat and poor surface finish. Here, turning work is carried out on a Lathe machine using EN3 Mild steel. Variable cutting speeds and depth of cuts are provided and corresponding temperatures and surface roughness values were recorded. Experimental results are analyzed by Minitab software. Regression analysis, main effect plot, and interaction plot conclusion are drawn by using ANOVA. There is a 95.83% reduction in the use of cutting fluid. MQL gives a 9.88% reduction in tool temperature, this will improve tool life. MQL produced a 17.64% improved surface finish. MQL appears to be an economical and environmentally compatible lubrication technique for sustainable manufacturing.

Keywords: ANOVA, MQL, regression analysis, surface roughness

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123 Future Outlook and Current Situation for Security of Gas Supply in Eastern Baltic Region

Authors: Ando Leppiman, Kati Kõrbe Kaare, Ott Koppel

Abstract:

Growing demand for gas has rekindled a debate on gas security of supply due to supply interruptions, increasing gas prices, cross-border bottlenecks and a growing reliance on imports over longer distances. Security of supply is defined mostly as an infrastructure package to satisfy N-1 criteria. In case of Estonia, Finland, Latvia and Lithuania all the gas infrastructure is built to supply natural gas only from one single supplier, Russia. In 2012 almost 100% of natural gas to the Eastern Baltic Region was supplied by Gazprom. Under such circumstances infrastructure N-1 criteria does not guarantee security of supply. In the Eastern Baltic Region, the assessment of risk of gas supply disruption has been worked out by applying the method of risk scenarios. There are various risks to be tackled in Eastern Baltic States in terms of improving security of supply, such as single supplier risk, physical infrastructure risk, regulatory gap, fair price and competition. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the energy security of the Eastern Baltic Region within the framework of the European Union’s policies and to make recommendations on how to better guarantee the energy security of the region.

Keywords: Security of supply, supply routes for natural gas, energy balance, diversified supply options, common regulative package.

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122 Challenges Facing Housing Developers to Deliver Zero Carbon Homes in England

Authors: M. Osmani, A. O'Reilly

Abstract:

Housebuilders in England have been the target of numerous government policies in recent years promoting increased productivity and affordability. As a result, the housebuilding industry is currently faced with objectives to improve the affordability and sustainability of new homes whilst also increasing production rates to 240,000 per year by 2016.Yet amidst a faltering economic climate, the UK Government is forging ahead with the 'Code for Sustainable Homes', which includes stringent sustainable standards for all new homes and sets ambitious targets for the housebuilding industry, the culmination of which is the production of zero carbon homes by 2016.Great uncertainty exists amongst housebuilders as to the costs, benefits and risks of building zero carbon homes. This paper examines the key barriers to zero carbon homes from housebuilders- perspective. A comprehensive opinion on the challenges to deliver zero carbon homes is gathered through a questionnaire survey issued to the major housing developers in England. The study found that a number of cultural, legislative, and financial barriers stand in the way of the widespread construction of zero carbon homes. The study concludes with several recommendations to both the Government and the housebuilding industry to address the barriers that hinder a successful delivery of zero carbon homes in England.

Keywords: Zero carbon homes, Code for Sustainable Homes, housebuilders, England

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121 A Partially Accelerated Life Test Planning with Competing Risks and Linear Degradation Path under Tampered Failure Rate Model

Authors: Fariba Azizi, Firoozeh Haghighi, Viliam Makis

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a method to model the relationship between failure time and degradation for a simple step stress test where underlying degradation path is linear and different causes of failure are possible. It is assumed that the intensity function depends only on the degradation value. No assumptions are made about the distribution of the failure times. A simple step-stress test is used to shorten failure time of products and a tampered failure rate (TFR) model is proposed to describe the effect of the changing stress on the intensities. We assume that some of the products that fail during the test have a cause of failure that is only known to belong to a certain subset of all possible failures. This case is known as masking. In the presence of masking, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the model parameters are obtained through an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm by treating the causes of failure as missing values. The effect of incomplete information on the estimation of parameters is studied through a Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, a real example is analyzed to illustrate the application of the proposed methods.

Keywords: Expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, cause of failure, intensity, linear degradation path, masked data, reliability function.

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120 Survey of Access Controls in Cloud Computing

Authors: Monirah Alkathiry, Hanan Aljarwan

Abstract:

Cloud computing is one of the most significant technologies that the world deals with, in different sectors with different purposes and capabilities. The cloud faces various challenges in securing data from unauthorized access or modification. Consequently, security risks and levels have greatly increased. Therefore, cloud service providers (CSPs) and users need secure mechanisms that ensure that data are kept secret and safe from any disclosures or exploits. For this reason, CSPs need a number of techniques and technologies to manage and secure access to the cloud services to achieve security goals, such as confidentiality, integrity, identity access management (IAM), etc. Therefore, this paper will review and explore various access controls implemented in a cloud environment that achieve different security purposes. The methodology followed in this survey was conducting an assessment, evaluation, and comparison between those access controls mechanisms and technologies based on different factors, such as the security goals it achieves, usability, and cost-effectiveness. This assessment resulted in the fact that the technology used in an access control affects the security goals it achieves as well as there is no one access control method that achieves all security goals. Consequently, such a comparison would help decision-makers to choose properly the access controls that meet their requirements.

Keywords: Access controls, cloud computing, confidentiality, identity and access management.

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119 Combined Safety and Cybersecurity Risk Assessment for Intelligent Distributed Grids

Authors: Anders Thorsèn, Behrooz Sangchoolie, Peter Folkesson, Ted Strandberg

Abstract:

As more parts of the power grid become connected to the internet, the risk of cyberattacks increases. To identify the cybersecurity threats and subsequently reduce vulnerabilities, the common practice is to carry out a cybersecurity risk assessment. For safety classified systems and products, there is also a need for safety risk assessments in addition to the cybersecurity risk assessment to identify and reduce safety risks. These two risk assessments are usually done separately, but since cybersecurity and functional safety are often related, a more comprehensive method covering both aspects is needed. Some work addressing this has been done for specific domains like the automotive domain, but more general methods suitable for, e.g., Intelligent Distributed Grids, are still missing. One such method from the automotive domain is the Security-Aware Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment (SAHARA) method that combines safety and cybersecurity risk assessments. This paper presents an approach where the SAHARA method has been modified to be more suitable for larger distributed systems. The adapted SAHARA method has a more general risk assessment approach than the original SAHARA. The proposed method has been successfully applied on two use cases of an intelligent distributed grid.

Keywords: Intelligent distribution grids, threat analysis, risk assessment, safety, cybersecurity.

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118 Absorbed Dose Measurement in Gonads Menduring Abdominal and Pelvicradiotherapy

Authors: Sadegh Masoudi, Ali Asghar Yousefi, Somayeh Nourollahi, Fatemeh Noughani

Abstract:

Two different testicular tissues have to be distinguished in regard to radiation damage: first the seminiferous tubules, corresponding to the sites of spermatogenesis, which are extremely radiosensitive. Second the testosterone secreting Leydig cells, which are considered to be less radiosensitive. This study aims to estimate testicular dose and the associated risks for infertility and hereditary effects from Abdominal and pelvic irradiation. Radiotherapy was simulated on a humanoid phantom using a 15 MV photon beam. Testicular dose was measured for various field sizes and tissue thicknesses along beam axis using an ionization chamber and TLD. For transmission Factor Also common method of measuring the absorbed dose distribution and electron contamination in the build-up region of high-energy beams for radiation therapy is by means of parallel-plate Ionisation chambers. Gonadal dose was reduced by placing lead cups around the testes supplemented by a field edge block. For a tumor dose of 100 cGy, testicular dose was 2.96-8.12 cGy depending upon the field size and the distance from the inferior field edge. The treatment at parameters, the presence of gonad shield and the somatometric characteristics determine whether testicular dose can exceed 1 Gy which allows a complete recovery of spermatogenesis.

Keywords: Absorbed Dose, Abdominal and pelvic, gonads men, Radiotherapy.

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117 Creating 3D Models Using Infrared Thermography with Remotely Piloted Aerial Systems

Authors: P. van Tonder, C. C. Kruger

Abstract:

Concrete structures deteriorate over time and degradation escalates due to various factors. The rate of deterioration can be complex and unpredictable in nature. Such deteriorations may be located beneath the surface of the concrete at high elevations. This emphasizes the need for an efficient method of finding such defects to be able to assess the severity thereof. Current methods using thermography to find defects require equipment to reach higher elevations. This could become costly and time consuming not to mention the risks involved in having personnel scaffold or abseiling at such heights. Accordingly, by combining the thermal camera needed for thermography and a remotely piloted aerial system (Drone/RPAS), it could be used to alleviate some of the issues mentioned. Images can be translated into a 3D temperature model to aid concrete diagnostics and with further research can relate back to the mechanical properties of the structure but will not be dealt with in this paper. Such diagnostics includes finding delamination, similar to finding delamination on concrete decks, which resides beneath the surface of the concrete before spalling can occur. Delamination can be caused by reinforcement eroding and causing expansion beneath the concrete surface. This could lead to spalling, where concrete pieces start breaking off from the main concrete structure.

Keywords: Concrete, diagnostic, infrared thermography, 3D thermal models.

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116 Economic Evaluation of Bowland Shale Gas Wells Development in the UK

Authors: Elijah Acquah-Andoh

Abstract:

The UK has had its fair share of the shale gas revolutionary waves blowing across the global oil and gas industry at present. Although, its exploitation is widely agreed to have been delayed, shale gas was looked upon favorably by the UK Parliament when they recognized it as genuine energy source and granted licenses to industry to search and extract the resource. This, although a significant progress by industry, there yet remains another test the UK fracking resource must pass in order to render shale gas extraction feasible – it must be economically extractible and sustainably so. Developing unconventional resources is much more expensive and risky, and for shale gas wells, producing in commercial volumes is conditional upon drilling horizontal wells and hydraulic fracturing, techniques which increase CAPEX. Meanwhile, investment in shale gas development projects is sensitive to gas price and technical and geological risks. Using a Two-Factor Model, the economics of the Bowland shale wells were analyzed and the operational conditions under which fracking is profitable in the UK was characterized. We find that there is a great degree of flexibility about Opex spending; hence Opex does not pose much threat to the fracking industry in the UK. However, we discover Bowland shale gas wells fail to add value at gas price of $8/ Mmbtu. A minimum gas price of $12/Mmbtu at Opex of no more than $2/ Mcf and no more than $14.95M Capex are required to create value within the present petroleum tax regime, in the UK fracking industry.

Keywords: Capex, economical, investment, profitability, shale gas development, sustainable.

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115 Fighter Aircraft Selection Using Fuzzy Preference Optimization Programming (POP)

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

The Turkish Air Force needs to acquire a sixth- generation fighter aircraft in order to maintain its air superiority and dominance against its rivals under the risks posed by global geopolitical opportunities and threats. Accordingly, five evaluation criteria were determined to evaluate the sixth-generation fighter aircraft alternatives and to select the best one. Systematically, a new fuzzy preference optimization programming (POP) method is proposed to select the best sixth generation fighter aircraft in an uncertain environment. The POP technique considers both quantitative and qualitative evaluation criteria. To demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach, it is applied to a multiple criteria decision-making problem to evaluate and select sixth-generation fighter aircraft. The results of the fuzzy POP method are compared with the results of the fuzzy TOPSIS approach to validate it. According to the comparative analysis, fuzzy POP and fuzzy TOPSIS methods get the same results. This demonstrates the applicability of the fuzzy POP technique to address the sixth-generation fighter selection problem.

Keywords: Fighter aircraft selection, sixth-generation fighter aircraft, fuzzy decision process, multiple criteria decision making, preference optimization programming, POP, TOPSIS, Kizilelma, MIUS, fuzzy set theory

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114 Awareness about HIV-Infection among HIV-Infected Individuals Attending Medical Moscow Center, Russia

Authors: Marina Nosik, Irina Rymanova, Sergei Sevostyanihin, Natalya Sergeeva, Alexander Sobkin

Abstract:

This paper presents results of the survey regarding the awareness about HIV/AIDS among HIV-infected individuals. A questionnaire covering various aspects of HIV-infection was conducted among 110 HIV-infected individuals who attended the G.A. Zaharyan Moscow Tuberculosis Clinic, Department for treatment of TB patients with HIV. The questionnaire included questions about modes of HIV transmission and preventive measures against HIV/AIDS, as well as questions about age, gender, education and employment status. The survey revealed that the respondents in the whole had a good knowledge regarding modes of HIV transmission and preventive measures against HIV/AIDS: about 83,6% male respondents and 85,7% female respondents gave an accurate answers regarding the HIV-infection. However, the overwhelming majority of the study participants, that is, 88,5% men and 98% women, was quite ignorant about the risk of acquiring HIV through saliva and toothbrush of HIV-infected individual. Though that risk is rather insignificant, it is still biologically possible. And this gap in knowledge needs to be filled. As the study showed another point of concern was the fact, that despite the knowledge of HIV transmission risk through unprotected sex about 40% percent of HIVpositive men and 25% of HIV-positive women did not insist on using condoms with their sexual partners. These findings indicate that there are still some aspects about HIV-infection which needed to be clarified and explained through more detailed and specific educational programs.

Keywords: AIDS, HIV transmission risks, HIV misconceptions, risk behavior.

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113 Cyber Security Situational Awareness among Students: A Case Study in Malaysia

Authors: Yunos Zahri, Ab Hamid R. Susanty, Ahmad Mustaffa

Abstract:

This paper explores the need for a national baseline study on understanding the level of cyber security situational awareness among primary and secondary school students in Malaysia. The online survey method was deployed to administer the data collection exercise. The target groups were divided into three categories: Group 1 (primary school aged 7-9 years old), Group 2 (primary school aged 10-12 years old), and Group 3 (secondary school aged 13-17 years old). A different questionnaire set was designed for each group. The survey topics/areas included Internet and digital citizenship knowledge. Respondents were randomly selected from rural and urban areas throughout all 14 states in Malaysia. A total of 9,158 respondents participated in the survey, with most states meeting the minimum sample size requirement to represent the country’s demographics. The findings and recommendations from this baseline study are fundamental to develop teaching modules required for children to understand the security risks and threats associated with the Internet throughout their years in school. Early exposure and education will help ensure healthy cyber habits among millennials in Malaysia.

Keywords: Cyber security awareness, cyber security education, cyber security, students.

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